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2:00PM Water Cooler 9/5/2024

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente

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Readers, I have a post to finish, but today was eventful, and so I’m going to put up some items here, finish my post, and then return here and do some backfilling. Hopefully there’s enough here to get you going. If not, talk amongst yourselves! –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Gray Catbird, Shindagin Hollow SF–Bald Hill School Rd., Tompkins, New York, United States. Four minutes of catbird!

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Lichtman opines: It’s Kamala!
  2. RussiaGate II (dudes, come on).
  3. Commercial real estate woes.
  4. Keith Haring.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Trump Assassination Attempt

“Sen. Hawley: Most Of The Agents On The Trump Detail At Butler Rally Were Homeland Security, Trained By A Webinar” [RealClearPolitics]. • Reading between the lines, the case for LIHOP.

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

The good news for Trump is that Kamala’s post-convention “bounce” seems to have been slight. The good news for Kamala is Trump’s continued deterioration in North Carolina, plus taking a slight lead in Pennsylvania. Remember, however, that all the fluctuations — in fact, all the leads, top to bottom — are within the margin of error.

“Historian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pick” [USA Today]. “Allan Lichtman, the historian who correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the ten most recent presidential elections, has made his guess on who will reclaim the White House this year. Spoiler alert: it’s Vice President Kamala Harris. Lichtman said in a video, [clickbait] first reported by The New York Times, that he based his prediction on thirteen keys or ‘big picture true false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House Party.'” • See here for Lichtman’s prediction system, which goes all the way back to 1860. Here is the chart for this year:

More: “‘Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,’ he said in the video. ‘The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.'” • One wonders whether debacles in both Gaza and Ukraine would affect the results of Lichtman’s prediction sustem. Dunno about an incumbent seeking re-election. Isn’t that false?

* * *

The Debate (September 10)

* * *

Trump (R): “Two RT Employees Indicted for Covertly Funding and Directing U.S. Company that Published Thousands of Videos in Furtherance of Russian Interests” (press release) [Office of Public Affairs, Department of Justice]. Aren’t we paying the Censorship Industrial Complex a lot of money to prevent this sort of thing? Anyhow: “The Justice Department has charged two employees of RT, a Russian state-controlled media outlet, in a $10 million scheme to create and distribute content to U.S. audiences with hidden Russian government messaging,’ said Attorney General Merrick B. Garland. ‘The Justice Department will not tolerate attempts by an authoritarian regime to exploit our country’s free exchange of ideas in order to covertly further its own propaganda efforts, and our investigation into this matter remains ongoing.’ ‘Our approach to combating foreign malign influence is actor-driven, exposing the hidden hand of adversaries pulling strings of influence from behind the curtain,’ said Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco. ‘As alleged in today’s indictment, Russian state broadcaster RT and its employees, including the charged defendants, co-opted online commentators by funneling them nearly $10 million to pump pro-Russia propaganda and disinformation across social media to U.S. audiences. The Department will not tolerate foreign efforts to illegally manipulate American public opinion by sowing discord and division.’ ‘Covert attempts to sow division and trick Americans into unwittingly consuming foreign propaganda represents attacks on our democracy,’ said FBI Director Christopher A. Wray.” • The rhetoric seems a little over-heated (helpfully underlined); can they possibly believe that they’re saying? Anyhow, it’s good to have the sources of “division” identified at last. And now do Israel and The Lobby.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Airborne Transmission

“Indoor air monitoring goes to school” [Chemical and Engineering News]. How it started: “[I]t wasn’t until the day after the US ended its COVID-19 public health emergency in May 2023 [ha ha] that the CDC provided a precise ventilation target of five air changes per hour in any occupied space. For schools to meet this target, the air in every classroom would need to be completely refreshed every 12 min. In Denver, Hernandez says, ‘none of these schools could do that.'” How it’s going: “In Colorado and Boston, collaborations between scientists and school districts that helped get students safely back to school at the height of the pandemic have continued and expanded. The indoor air monitoring programs that begun during the pandemic are now ensuring that kids headed back this fall are breathing clean air in homeroom.” Two cities… And: “With hundreds of schools now actively monitoring indoor air quality, it is perhaps surprising that it took a global pandemic to get air sensors into classrooms. The onus of monitoring and regulating the air pollutants inside buildings has always fallen to building managers. The US Environmental Protection Agency ‘doesn’t have broad responsibility for monitoring indoor air or ensuring its quality in the same way we are authorized for ambient air,’ says Vito Ilacqua, acting director of the agency’s Center for Scientific Analysis. In other words, there is no Clean Air Act for indoor spaces.” • Sigh.

“Are chronic absenteeism interventions working?” [K-12 Dive]. “About one-quarter (23%) of school districts surveyed said none of the strategies they put in place to combat chronic absenteeism have been particularly effective, according to an analysis of data published Tuesday by Rand Corporation and the Center on Reinventing Public Education. One explanation, according to researchers’ interviews with district leaders, is a cultural shift occurring since COVID-19-related school building closures, in which students and families view school attendance as optional and less important.” • Or maybe — work with me, here — the kids are just sick all the time.

Elite Maleficence

Cute!

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC August 26: Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC August 31 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC August 24

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data August 30: National [6] CDC August 10:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens September 3: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic August 24:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC August 12: Variants[10] CDC August 12:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC August 24: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC August 24:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flat, that is, no longer down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop, but all those white states showing no change: Labor Day weekend reporting issues?

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up. If the United States is like Canada, deaths are several undercounted:

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” [Trading Economics]. “US employers announced 75,891 job cuts in August 2024, the most in five months, and the most for the month since 2009 when excluding the pandemic-induced crash in 2020. The result was in line with other key releases in reflecting the softening of the US labor market, strengthening the rhetoric for doves in the FOMC. Among different sectors, tech companies announced the most cuts….”

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US dropped by 5,000 from the previous week to 227,000 on the period ending August 31st, below market expectations of 230,000, and reaching a new 7-week low.”

Employment Situation: “United States ADP Employment Change” [Trading Economics]. “Private businesses in the US added 99K workers to their payrolls in August 2024, the lowest number since January 2021, following a downwardly revised 111K in July and well below forecasts of 145K. Figures showed the labor market continued to cool for the fifth straight month while wage growth was stable.”

* * *

Tech: “Intel’s Money Woes Throw Biden Team’s Chip Strategy Into Turmoil” [Bloomberg]. “The Biden-Harris administration’s big bet on Intel Corp. to lead a US chipmaking renaissance is in grave trouble as a result of the company’s mounting financial struggles, creating a potentially damaging setback for the country’s most ambitious industrial policy in decades. Five months after the president traveled to Arizona to unveil a potential $20 billion package of incentives alongside Chief Executive Officer Pat Gelsinger, there are growing questions around when — or if — Intel will get its hands on that money. Intel’s woes also may jeopardize the government’s ability to reach its policy goals, which include establishing a secure supply of cutting-edge chips for the Pentagon and making a fifth of the world’s advanced processors by 2030. Intel is mired in a sales slump worse than anticipated and hemorrhaging cash, forcing its board to consider increasingly drastic actions — including possibly splitting off its manufacturing division or paring back global factory plans, Bloomberg reported last week. That threatens to further complicate its quest for government funding, at a time when Intel desperately needs the help. The Silicon Valley company is supposed to receive $8.5 billion in grants and $11 billion in loans from the 2022 Chips and Science Act, but only if the chipmaker meets key milestones — and after significant due diligence. That process, which applies to all Chips Act winners, has been clear from the outset, and aims to ensure that companies only get taxpayer dollars once they’ve actually delivered on their promises. Intel, like other potential recipients, hasn’t received any money yet. In ongoing negotiations, Intel has grown frustrated with what it sees as the government dragging its feet and has urged officials to release funding faster….” • Who’s running Intel? Zelensky?

Real Estate: “Creative destruction rips through US commercial property” [Financial Times]. “The financial train wreck laying waste to parts of the market for big office buildings in some of America’s largest cities is showing no signs of abating, even as the US economy as a whole continues to be chugging along just fine. The questions remain as to why this is happening and whether the bottom has been reached. The detritus is strewn everywhere…. Part of the problem for owners of these buildings, and their lenders, is the fundamental change in the nature of work, post-pandemic. Between high-speed internet access, video calls and working-from-home privileges, people aren’t going to an office to work as often as before — although that partly depends on the city, with Miami and New York City having much higher levels of employees back in the office compared with San Francisco and Los Angeles. Less office space is now needed. ‘The vacancy rates are the highest I’ve ever seen,’ Flexner said. It does seem bleak, and there are genuine negative knock-on effects for restaurants, retail stores and other businesses that depend on the foot traffic and commerce generated by a bustling office complex…. As for these struggling commercial office towers, Schumpeter’s logic is likely to prove true. [Tom Flexner, a former vice-chair at Citigroup] said many of these buildings would be razed, taken down to the raw land, at great cost, and then would rise again as residential properties or new commercial properties designed to meet the demands of the evolving office culture. Until then, the bloodbath will continue and the pain will be considerable for both equity and debtholders.”

Real Estate: “Frenzy over Venezuelan gang in Aurora reaches crescendo, fueled by conflicting information and politics” [Denver Post]. “The mayor’s claim of a gang takeover is disputed by other city officials, who say the longstanding disarray and poor conditions at the apartment buildings were the fault of poor oversight by CBZ Management — not because of criminal acts by Tren de Aragua members. ‘There’s this hysteria that we apparently have a gang problem, but what we have is a slumlord problem in the city of Aurora,’ City Councilwoman Alison Coombs said.”

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 47 Neutral (previous close: 52 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 60 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 5 at 1:10:04 PM ET.

Book Nook

“Just say it, Henry” [London Review of Books]. The prefaces of Henry James. “People who are impatient with the late James may think his view of human reality is over-refined and unreal. It isn’t. It is a version of the world in which we live… [W]e occupy a delicate weave of emotions and beliefs that half beguiles us into thinking of ourselves as its centre, until something is seen or something happens which tells us, irrefutably, that we are not. We live in a state of bewilderment, even though we do not want to acknowledge it, and indeed may not always know it. James’s late style evolved along with this multiplex vision of human reality, and it is not so much a vehicle for that vision as its enabling condition. That fusion of style and content was a great event in the literary history of the early 20th century…. The best moments in the prefaces are not just about the fiction but share with the later fiction a fascination with the dirty things that they are trying not to talk about, or from which they may even be flinching or recoiling.” • Hence the inverted commas, the adverbs, the endless circumlocutions….

Class Warfare

“Ultra-Rich Families Set to Control $9.5 Trillion by 2030, Deloitte Says” [Bloomberg] “The wealth of ultra-rich families will likely swell to $9.5 trillion by 2030, according to estimates from consultancy Deloitte, as family offices grow and morph to rival hedge funds. The figure would mark a 73% jump from the current $5.5 trillion controlled by people represented by family offices, according to the report. The number of investment firms for the wealthy is expected to grow by one-third over the same time period, to 10,720. As wealth inequality concentrates more money in the hands of the very rich, and as it becomes easier to open a family office, the industry is catching up with hedge funds in size and — in some cases — hiring from a similar pool of professional investors.” • Trees grow to the sky?

News of the Wired

I have yet to become wired today.

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From MarkT:

MarkT writes: “Another winter walkd among the giant tree ferns in Akatarawa Forest Park, Wellington, New Zealand.”

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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15 comments

  1. Fastball

    Russia Russia Russia!!

    But Israel is free to dump tens of millions of our own laundered taxpayer dollars into efforts to blackmail U.S. politicians, almost all of which succeed.

    Reply ↓
    1. griffen

      It’s a movie reboot of a movie reboot…Red Dawn which I honestly don’t remember well at all from the first movie that was out in the 1980’s.

      Reply ↓
      1. Henry Moon Pie

        I saw “Red Dawn” in the drive-in where the drive-in scene was filmed. It was just north of Las Vegas, NM. On the other side of Route 3, a highway that goes from Vegas to Mora where we lived and ultimately to Taos, they built a gas station and then blew it up. Never saw Patrick Swayze though. He must have been hiding out in the woods on Jack Nicholson’s place.

        Reply ↓
    2. Screwball

      Russia Russia Russia!!

      No kidding. They are eating this up like Nancy’s ice cream. Anybody could be a Russian, everyone might be a Russian. OH NO!! Lions and Tigers and Bears!

      What a shit show, and all the people swallowing this garbage thinks anyone that doesn’t agree with them are the crazy people. And we will have months more of this. I can hardly wait.

      What a world.

      Reply ↓
    3. Googoogajoob

      It’s the unfortunate reality that it’s who you’re aligned with for better or worse. For my friends, everything. For my enemies, the law.

      Not too sure I’d characterize this as Russiagate II or completely dismiss this out of pocket just yet. At least for me, how I interpreted Russiagate I (?) is there was some Russia OPs doing some social media shenanigans but at a scale that was so miniscule that it could not have swung that election despite the crooning in the media about it.

      That being said though, is it really that implausible that Russia might have stepped this up a few notches? America is no stranger to doing media OPs in other countries so in a sense it’s all part of the game. The thought does occur to me as well that the paper thin Russiagate I case arguably does provide a strong cover for a real concerted effort.

      Either way, as far as I see it if you can dish it out you better be able to take it but that’s just not the case when it comes to foreign affairs.

      Reply ↓
  3. Samuel Conner

    Adjacent to the spirit of this morning’s links page item on DIY pharma synthesis, I’ve been intrigued by DIY folk medicine. So many molecules in the plant world.

    A new species for me this year is Lemongrass. At the beginning of the year a friend asked me to grow West Indian Lemongrass for a contact who uses it (in herbal tea form) for analgesia. There is a teeny bit of confirmatory research on this; I don’t know whether the effect is merely perceptual or whether there is some improvement in the underlying condition.

    An interesting correlated effect that the contact reports is that mosquitos are repelled to some degree.

    It’s a tall and fast-growing grass and can be used in landscaping the way other ornamental grasses are used (but it does not tolerate cold winters). Easy to grow from seed, too.

    This is mostly just bloviating on my part, but there are conceivable future scenarios in which “medicinal landscaping” might matter and might be a useful adjunct to DIY pharma/chemistry.

    Reply ↓
  4. VTDigger

    “…the pain will be considerable for both equity and debtholders.”

    Seems to suggest some actual free market activity may occur…somebody call Powell quick!

    Heaven forfend!

    Reply ↓
  5. ChrisFromGA

    Re: Allan Lichtman’s election prediction

    I see a few dubious scores on the election scorecard.

    Me: “I’ll take foreign/military failures for $400, Alex”

    Alex: This 2024 operation involved sending US and European naval assets into the Red Sea, spending billions of dollars in missile, fuel, and personnel costs, yet failing to prevent Ansar Allah from sinking 2 ships and setting a third oil tanker on fire, threatening a major ecological disaster.”

    Me: What is “Operation Prosperity Guardian, Alex?”

    Alex: That’s right!

    Reply ↓
    1. urdsama

      The whole tracker is more than dubious, not only based on the “key metrics” chosen but on how he is grading them:

      2. No primary contest – How does he address suppressing such a contest?
      3. Not actually true, the real incumbent was forced out.
      5. Short term strong economy – how does he come to this conclusion?
      6. Long term strong economy – again, how does he come to this conclusion?
      7. No social unrest – a strong item in favor of Harris. How?
      10/11 Flawed as you have pointed out already, but also how is item 11 also undecided? There is literally nothing that can happen as a result of US foreign policy that can change this to a positive for Harris.
      13. Is totally subjective and really comes down to who you ask.

      The more I look at his system the more it appears Lichtman has found the perfect tool to ensure he is right most of the time as the “keys” are so subjective you can bend them anyway you wish.

      Completely worthless.

      Reply ↓
  6. t

    Sen. Hawley was told, was he? Still looking for a case where he compares that event to others. (And is it SOP for republican senators to have full voicemail/never respond)

    Reply ↓
  7. Mikel

    “Creative destruction rips through US commercial property” [Financial Times].

    “Creative destruction”
    I guess that’s a better spin than calling it something like “QE destruction”.

    Reply ↓
  9. JMH

    I have been reading RT on line for years. Of course it presents the Russian point of view, state sponsored or not. Maybe I missed the insidious propaganda seeking to influence the election. I must be too stupid and impressionable to know what I am reading. Merrick, old boy, you ought to get out of the DC Bubble and Echo Chamber and clear your head. I would bet on long odds that the vast majority of people who follow RT have firm opinions not likely to be shaken by even clever propaganda.

    Ever hear of the boy who cried ,”Wolf?” Grow up.

    Reply ↓

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