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2:00PM Water Cooler 9/6/2024

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente

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Bird Song of the Day

Gray Catbird, Lake Massapoag, Norfolk, Massachusetts, United States.

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In Case You Might Miss…

  1. New RCP charts: race tied (and many revisions to the Covid table as well).
  2. Kamala’s campaign keeps her wrapped in tissue paper.
  3. Another Boeing manufacturing debacle shaping up nicely.

* * *

Look for the Helpers

Can New Yorkers confirm?

* * *

My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

I would say the bloom is off the rose for Harris, except for an upward blip in Georgia. Looks like the enormous liberalgasm afte the Convention was confined to party loyalists. The Kamala campaign must be sore as boils Trump is within striking distance, let alone tied with them. What could account for it? Perhaps that’s why the pivot to RussiaGate. Remember, however, that all the fluctuations — in fact, all the leads, top to bottom — are within the margin of error.

It’s close:

Or not!

Responses already filled with RussiaGate bots…

“Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?” [Project FiveThirtyEight]. “Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead former President Donald Trump in national polls and in the swing states, but her margin has slipped modestly over the last two weeks. On Aug. 23, our polling average had Harris up on Trump by 3.7 percentage points. Her margin today is a comparatively lower +3.2. As the polls have gotten closer, Harris’s probability of victory in our election model has also slipped, from 60-in-100 last week to 56-in-100 today.” • A slow bleed. Fast enough?

“‘Torn 20’ voters, still on the fence, will decide if Trump or Harris prevails” [USA Today]. “In the August USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll of likely voters… We found a segment of the population (75 respondents, about 8%) that, with only 2 months until election day, is still either undecided or selecting third-party candidates as both their first and second choice. That’s nearly twice as large as the current margin separating Harris and Trump. (Harris currently leads Trump, 47.6% to 43.3%.)” The election is a Sophie’s choice, so in fact 8% is a remarkably small figure. More: “The overall reason? USA TODAY’s Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page summarized the data well: “‘Likely voters are holding back from Harris largely because they don’t know enough about her, and those same voters are holding back from Trump because they know too much about him.'” (Hence my view that Kamala doesn’t know who she is might carry weight; they don’t know enough about her because there’s nothing to know._) From the interviews with these twenty voters:

Looks like the double haters haven’t really gone away.

* * *

The Debate (September 10)

* * *

Kamala (D): “One Big Thing Kamala Is Getting Right” [Jill Filipovic, Slate]. “If Kamala Harris wins the 2024 election, she will be the first female president ever, and the first Black and Indian female president too. But despite the historic nature of her candidacy, she doesn’t want to focus on her identity—and, in a pretty notable turn, neither does her party.” Perhaps because Trump threw a brushbaclk pitch? That said, I’m not sure the candidates’s focus is all that reduced; collard greens, and so forth. We’ll also wait to see if Kamala plays that card in debate; I’m guessing she will, since after all how many cards does she have to play? More: “And yet I also believe there is something shallow, and sometimes incredibly counterproductive, about a focus on identity. It flattens more than it layers on, and it is certainly damaging to progressive movements when identity is wielded as a cudgel or a gotcha. Donald Trump’s four years in office were such a shock to the system, and such a victory for racism and sexism that the politics of identity on the left went into overdrive. A lot of good came out of this: movements against racial injustice and sexual abuse; a broader shared vocabulary with which to talk about power and fairness. But, as inevitably happens with well-meaning but extremely zealous social movements, there were excesses.” • This is silly. Identity politics had been in overdrive for years, and very well funded in the NGOs, too. You can’t blame Trump for that. Nice try.

Kamala (D): “How Harris dodges scrutiny” [Axios]. Worth reading in full. This caught my eye

Harris is copying President Biden’s self-protection media strategy — duck tough interviews and limit improvisational moments.

Her circumstances are different, for sure. She entered the race just seven weeks ago, did dozens of interviews this year before Biden’s exit, and plans to do more interviews and gaggles.

But with her debate with former President Trump coming up Tuesday (9pm ET), Harris has big questions to answer in two areas that go to the heart of running America:

1. Why did President Biden’s top advisers routinely leak word they found her performance as vice president disappointing or episodically problematic?

2. How did her views change in five years, from liberal to centrist on health care, immigration and energy? Why should voters believe her new views are the ones she’d stick with inside the White House?

Keeping your candidate wrapped in tissue paper is not a sign of strength. And if there’s one thing we know about Trump, it’s that he’s expert in sniffing out weakness and taking advantage of it. But with Harris in hiding, that’s not so easy to do. Perhaps in “the” debate (only one? Really? In a Presidential campaign?). Mark Penn, amazingly, gets it right:

Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris ran her office like a prosecutor. Not everyone liked that” [WaPo]. • Worth reading in full, since this is in essence the case for Harris. I don’t find it impressive, particularly the issues she chose to focus on (and for the rest of it, nobody’s going to give a straight answer now anyhow. The Axios article immediately above is much sharper.

Kamala (D): “Harris abandons 2019 pledge to ban plastic straws” [Axios]. • Ouch!

Kamala (D): Also ouch:

* * *

Trump (R): “Judge Merchan delays sentencing in Trump’s hush money case until after election” [MSNBC]. “Judge Juan Merchan has agreed to delay Donald Trump’s sentencing in New York until after the election, showing the latest way that the GOP presidential nominee has benefited from the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling. Trump’s lawyers cited the ruling in seeking to push the Sept. 18 sentencing. Merchan had previously set Sept. 16 to rule on Trump’s motion to overturn his guilty verdicts based on the immunity ruling, and his lawyers signaled to the judge that if he rules against them on that motion, then they’ll immediately appeal prior to sentencing. On Friday, Merchan said he will now decide whether to set aside the guilty verdicts on Nov. 12 and then proceed to sentencing (if necessary) on Nov. 26. Election day is Nov. 5. Merchan postponed the matter reluctantly, writing to the parties on Friday that doing so would avoid any appearance — ‘however unwarranted,’ the judge wrote — that the proceeding had been affected by or sought to affect the election.”

Trump (R): “Evidence in January 6 case against Trump could be released before election under new schedule” [CNN]. “Smith’s team said Thursday that they wanted to file an initial brief that would include ‘substantial exhibits’ that would lay out for the judge the context, form and content of relevant evidence in the case – including evidence not in the indictment.” • What. Why? Commentary on the “substantial exhibits”:

* * *

* * *

Kennedy (I): “How can Kamala Harris reach RFK Jr. supporters? Tell the truth.” [MSNBC] • But she’s a Democrat…

* * *

Democrats en Déshabillé

“Navy Secretary Broke Law With Trump-Bashing, Pro-Biden Comments: Watchdog” [Associated Press]. “Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro broke the law by publicly endorsing the reelection of President Joe Biden and criticizing former President Donald Trump in several statements he made while on official duty overseas, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel said Thursday. In a report to the White House, the watchdog agency said Del Toro’s comments about the presidential election came in a BBC interview and when he was responding to questions after a speech in London…. The agency said Del Toro’s comments, which were made before Biden dropped out of the presidential race, violate the Hatch Act, which prohibits U.S. officials from engaging in political activity while they are on duty and from ‘using their official authority or influence to interfere with or affect the result of an election‘” • Oh. “Election interference” that actually breaks the law. If Del Toro had been a Republican endorsing Trump, the bleating and yammering would go on for weeks.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

–>

Transmission: Covid

“Covid summer surge continuing into fall, state data show” [Minnesota Refomer]. “”The size and duration of this surge is unusual for summer,” Brown University epidemiologist Jennifer Nuzzo recently noted on the website formerly known as Twitter. Hospitalizations are also running about 50% higher than during the same period one year ago, suggesting an early start to this year’s COVID season.” • Gonna have to pry the “seasonal” paradigm form the cold dead hands of epidemologists…

Maskstravaganza

“Free Rein and No Guidance: Long Island’s Cop-Enforced Mask Ban Isn’t Going Great” [Mother Jones]. “Since the mask ban law was enacted, two people have been charged with misdemeanors for violating it, punishable by up to a year in jail and a $1,000 fine. In both cases, [Beth Haroules, a senior staff attorney at NYCLU] says, ‘there probably wasn’t probable cause to arrest either gentleman.’ Haroules agrees with concerns that people of color will be disproportionately targeted for wearing masks. The Nassau County Police Department, Haroules says, ‘has a documented history of inappropriate interactions with people of color.’ (It also has a troubled record on other fronts, including around residents’ civil rights.) Choosing to wear masks, as Haroules told Mother Jones she herself continues to do on public transportation, is an individual decision which mask bans threaten. Having other community members ‘enforcing the mask ban by threatening to call police,’ Haroules says, ‘really suggests that there’s a societal problem.'” • Indeed.

Vaccines

Depopulation continues apace, good job:

Morbidity and Mortality

“In Australia, COVID-19 deaths may have stopped decreasing” [Virology Down Under]. “The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published excellent data on deaths due to or with COVID-19 in Australia from 2022 to July 2024. Deaths dropped between 2022 and 2023, but they stopped dropping further in 2024. Is this baseline of death ‘living with COVID-19′?”

Elite Maleficence

They know #CovidIsAirborne. They just don’t want you to know:

The “palace” of Westminster. Schools and hospitals should be “palaces” too. But they’re not.

* * *

Lambert here: The figures look mildly encouraging for now, but I would expect an immediate worsening after Labor Day travel kicks in, along with grade schools, high schools, and colleges starting up. Stay safe out there!

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC August 26: Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC August 31 ★ Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC August 31

Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data September 5: ★ National [6] CDC August 17:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens September 3: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic August 24:

Travelers Data
★ Positivity[9] CDC August 19: ★ Variants[10] CDC August 19:

Deaths
★ Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC August 31: ★ Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC August 31:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flat, that is, no longer down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop, but all those white states showing no change: Labor Day weekend reporting issues?

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up. If the United States is like Canada, deaths are several undercounted:

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Unemployment Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment rate in the United States eased to 4.2% in August of 2024 from the October 2021 high of 4.3% in the prior month, aligning with market expectations.”

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Real Estate: Speaking of offices:

Manufacturing: “As strike looms, Boeing pushes 777 jets through chaotic production in Everett” [Seattle Times (PI)]. “For months, Boeing’s leadership has claimed repeatedly that slowing the pace of jet production and renewing the focus on inspections will ensure production quality. As a potential strike by 33,000 machinists looms next week, that’s not the reality mechanics see inside Boeing’s widebody jet plant in Everett. Managers there are currently pushing partially assembled 777 jets through the assembly line, leaving tens of thousands of unfinished jobs due to defects and parts shortages to be completed out of sequence on each airplane, according to three people working directly on 777 assembly. Though the production rate of 777 jets is at a crawl, with a total of just 11 deliveries so far this year, employees describe a chaotic workplace. Mechanics are chasing airplanes through the Everett factory to install systems that should have gone in earlier and to complete rework of defects on 777 cargo planes that have traveled far down the assembly line and even outside onto the Paine Field flight line, said a veteran 777 mechanic who works on fuselages…. A longtime 777 quality inspector in Everett — who, like the other employees quoted here, requested anonymity because he feared retaliation — said Boeing has moved new inspectors onto the assembly line who are unfamiliar with the work.

‘They are not being trained, just thrown to the wolves,’ he said. Boeing personnel conducting inspections out on the airfield flight line are finding multiple structure, systems and interior defects that were missed inside the factory.” • That new CEO sure has made a big difference, hasn’t he? Meanwhile, the 777 was the one Boeing aircraft I felt safe to fly on. I guess I’ll have to start checking the build dates, if I ever take a flight again.

Manufacturing: Short “industrial knowledge”:

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 39 Fear (previous close: 46 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 62 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 6 at 2:43:52 PM ET.

Gallery

A “sunny nook” (except outside):

Zeitgeist Watch

“Churches Take Homeschooling in a Surprising Direction” [The American Conservative]. “t is hardly news that homeschooling has taken off around the country, especially since Covid. Over the last year alone, according to the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, the number of US homeschooled students has gone from 3.6 million to 4 million—an 11 percent increase. Less well-known is the role America’s churches have played in not only facilitating the spread of homeschooling but in helping to make it a far more collaborative and even highly structured activity. By providing groups of homeschool families with a space that goes largely unused during the week and a small supervisory staff, many parishes have successfully combined online curricula with an environment more typical of a conventional public or private school… Exactly how many churches across the country offer such organized forms of homeschooling is hard to say, because only Alabama, California, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Maryland, Tennessee, and Washington explicitly grant area churches or parochial schools the right to supervise homeschoolers.” • The least TAC could do is mention ventilation….

“Five Geek Social Fallacies” [Plausibly Deniable]. “Geek Social Fallacy #1: Ostracizers Are Evil. GSF1 is one of the most common fallacies, and one of the most deeply held. Many geeks have had horrible, humiliating, and formative experiences with ostracism, and the notion of being on the other side of the transaction is repugnant to them. In its non-pathological form, GSF1 is benign, and even commendable: it is long past time we all grew up and stopped with the junior high popularity games. However, in its pathological form, GSF1 prevents its carrier from participating in — or tolerating — the exclusion of anyone from anything, be it a party, a comic book store, or a web forum, and no matter how obnoxious, offensive, or aromatic the prospective excludee may be. As a result, nearly every geek social group of significant size has at least one member that 80% of the members hate, and the remaining 20% merely tolerate.” • Hmm.

News of the Wired

“Cough or sneeze? How the brain knows what to unleash” [Nature]. “Does a whiff of pollen trigger a sneeze or a cough? Scientists have discovered nerve cells that cause one response versus another: ‘sneeze neurons’ in the nasal passages relay sneeze signals to the brain, and separate neurons send cough messages, according to a study performed in mice.” But: “Does a whiff of pollen trigger a sneeze or a cough? Scientists have discovered nerve cells that cause one response versus another: ‘sneeze neurons’ in the nasal passages relay sneeze signals to the brain, and separate neurons send cough messages, according to a study1 performed in mice.”

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From MF:

MF writes: “Timothy (?) backlit during the Golden Hour, Hudson Valley, NY.”

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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19 comments

    3. Tommy S

      Yep, seen it for 35 years in SF on muni buses, so I learned it too long ago. Also with older people and those wheeled shopping carts. Very normal. Though most of our buses have that cool lowering (without unfurling the handicap ramp) function now so they can go out the front door level with sidewalk. Also seen a driver almost every week, get up slap the seats back , for wheelchair positioning, or even get out the door to help extra slow person on.

      Reply ↓
    4. Jeff W

      As someone who grew up in New York (but didn’t observe that specifically), I can say it sounds exactly like what I would expect.

      Aside from exhibiting basic human decency, it conforms to one of the cardinal rules of New York City life: Don’t break “the flow.” New Yorkers move fast and don’t want anything that impedes their progress. Also, New Yorkers value succinctness in purely practical interactions and nothing says succinctness like nothing said.

      Reply ↓
    6. Omicron

      I can absolutely confirm that practice for New York, even though I haven’t lived there in nearly 40 years. Not for my native Boston, though. New Yorkers are the most decent people on the face of the earth.

      Reply ↓
  2. griffen

    Payrolls Friday….jobs report headlines this morning are slightly more encouraging for that very initial Fed target rate easing. Will that be a 0.25% or a 0.50% move…last odds I saw from CNBC were favoring the former as the initial move. We’re gonna know soon enough.

    *still moderately a positive trend but the weaker numbers from the past 2 to 3 months is getting more notice

    Reply ↓
  6. Screwball

    RE: Manufacturing: Short “industrial knowledge”

    I couldn’t agree more, although I don’t agree totally with the contents of the Tweet. The part I’m not sure about is the claim; there are enough young guys with the intelligence and work ethics to keep things running.

    I’m not so sure about that, but the loss of knowledge in the workplace is a problem, and it didn’t start yesterday.

    I am a retired engineer. I have been teaching a STEM class at a nearby college since then. I can tell you the workforce before I left was without a doubt going in the wrong direction when it came to skills. And like the Tweeter claimed, the older people keep retiring. OR – forced out before they were ready to go. I know, I was one of them.

    The new people have fewer people to look to as mentors, that is if the old people want to be. Some are so miserable, due to work conditions (long hours because deadlines and salary), they don’t give one good hooey anymore. So there are less experienced people to show the younger ones how things work, how to survive in that workspace, and how to do their job the best and most efficient way(so they don’t have to work 7 days a week).

    Furthermore, I noticed over the last 8-10 years or so, it became harder and harder to find qualified people. If you did, maybe they were good or maybe not. Different generations, different lifestyles, different ways of living. I think overall, they didn’t have as good of work ethics as people in the past, but that’s just me and my observation.

    And a final thought; we are also to the point, our HR departments have been taken over by bean counters and we don’t know HOW to hire good and qualified people. Our hiring practices became “check the box.” Good GPA, check. Went to a name school, check. Answered some easy questions, check. Did you give them a test? No. Did you ask them some tough questions that we have had to deal with to see how they would answer them? No. But your hired because we liked your GPA and you made the HR person giggle.

    We are screwed, and I wondered years ago how in the Sam hell we made anything anyway. When academics and bean counters take over the technical and manufacturing fields (maybe more – giggle) we are going to have trouble. I guarantee it.

    Reply ↓
    1. Laura in So Cal

      100% this. I work in an old fashioned manufacturing environment. Over the years the “lean” mentality kept the company from maintaining a training pipeline of new people because that costs money and you have to keep some slack in the system so those people can be trained. For years, the people here kept doing their jobs with very little “new blood” especially
      in machining and manufacturing engineering. We had a great retirement during 2020/2021. We now have many more quality problems and scrap and rework costs. They have been hiring new people who might try hard, but you can’t replace the hard won product and process specific knowledge in just a year or two.
      Basically, at this point, a whole bunch of problems are having to be solved ftom scratch.

      Reply ↓
    2. CA

      “I am a retired engineer…”

      An important analysis, for which I am grateful.

      This is an unprecedented period for manufacturing. Manufacturing productivity has actually declined now over the last 12 and a half years. Generally manufacturing productivity increases at about 2% per year.

      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=m2mB

      January 30, 2018

      Manufacturing Productivity, * 1988-2024

      * Output per hour of all persons

      (Indexed to 1988)

      Reply ↓
    3. IM Doc

      This is not just manufacturing.

      I can speak for medicine.

      I have decades of experience to know what physicians face every day and what they have to deal with.

      I can tell everyone to rest assured that the current generation of young doctors is woefully unprepared for what awaits them. It is a mentality problem on both the young ones part, but also on the faculty and how they have been trained.

      One after the other after the other, as they enter the work force, I see them just melt under the strain. I simply do not know what to do about it other than work harder to pick up the slack. There are only so many more years for the system where that will even be an option.

      Reply ↓
  7. ChrisFromGA

    Edifice Wrecks update!

    https://www.costar.com/article/1614212969/major-us-office-landlord-sees-its-survival-in-doubt-hires-restructuring-officer

    Hertz Properties Group, an arm of one of the largest owners of office properties in central business districts across the United States, said it has “significant doubts regarding the continued existence of the company.”

    The concerns are tied to ongoing deterioration in U.S. office leasing, high operating costs due to inflation and high interest rates, the company said in a regulatory filing. The disclosure comes as some office properties in major cities across the United States have been selling for far less than what the owners had paid years earlier as some companies hold off on taking more space and others allow remote work.

    Hertz Properties had financed 11 U.S. office properties with about $200 million in bonds issued on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange in Israel and bondholders are scheduled to meet over the next two weeks to discuss the redemption of the bonds, which are only partially repaid. The firm disclosed its “going concern” doubts in its half-year financial report filed this past weekend in Tel Aviv that also details financial reporting irregularities it discovered for the first time.

    Reply ↓

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