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2:00PM Water Cooler 9/9/2024

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Patient readers, I’m a little behind the eight ball on schedule, here, but I will certainly get to Kamala’s visit to the spice store! –lambert UPDATE Finished!

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Siena poll turns out not necessarily to Kamala’s advantage.
  2. Kennedy ad deserves to go viral.
  3. Kamala visits Penzeys spice in Pittsburgh.
  4. Boeing signals more work in Renton with industrial lease, contract proposal.

* * *

Look for the Helpers

During a typhoon (DK):

I was pleasantly surprised to hear the other day how many people helped women/persons with baby carriages up stairs; my faith in humanity was somewhat restored. Has anybody ever seen similar behavior in the US? Of course, we don’t have typhoons, but tornadoes and hurricanes; it might not be possible to give the same sort of help.

* * *

My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza). –>

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

I would say the bloom is off the rose for Harris, except for an upward blip in Georgia. Looks like the enormous liberalgasm afte the Convention was confined to party loyalists. The Kamala campaign must be sore as boils Trump is within striking distance, let alone tied with them. What could account for it? Perhaps that’s why the pivot to RussiaGate. Remember, however, that all the fluctuations — in fact, all the leads, top to bottom — are within the margin of error.

“Toplines: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide” [New York Times]”

If this is a “Change vs. more of the same” election, and the voters want change — how could they not? — then Kamala is in real trouble.

“New Poll Suggests Harris’s Support Has Stalled After a Euphoric August” [New York Times]. Commentary on the Siena poll (above). “[T]he poll nonetheless finds that [Trump] has significant advantages in this election — and they might just be enough to put him over the top. He’s more popular than before. Overall, 46 percent of likely voters say they have a favorable view of the former president. That’s down a tick from our last national poll, when 47 percent had a favorable view, but it still makes him more popular than he was in 2016 or 2020. He has an advantage on the issues. We asked voters a two-part question. First, what’s the most important issue to your vote? Second, do you think Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump is better on that issue? By that measure, Mr. Trump has a five-point lead on the issue that matters most to voters, whatever that may be for them. He occupies the center. A near majority of voters say Mr. Trump is ‘not too far’ to the left or right on the issues, while only around one-third say he’s ‘too far to the right.’ Nearly half of voters, in contrast, say Ms. Harris is too far to the left; only 41 percent say she’s ‘not too far either way.'” • The 100-days election works against Harris, too. If she stumbles, badly, once, she could be a goner. From these numbers, the Trump campaign has laid a very solid foundation. (Maybe voters apply a “Trump Discount” to compensate for the puffery. If he says “Kamala’s a communist,” they discount that by, say, 90%, and still come out with the result that she’s left. Of course, it’s ludicrous to think Kamala’s anything like a communist — do you hear her calling for working class control of the means of production? — but nevertheless, the charge sticks, even given the discount.)

“Harris falling behind among male voters in key states” [The Hill]. “New polls show Vice President Harris faces a major challenge in winning over male voters and is losing men by a bigger margin than she’s winning women in key states such as Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina…. Trump’s campaign has tried to exploit the gender divide by saturating battleground states with advertising focused on the economy, inflation, illegal immigration and crime, designed to appeal to younger male voters. ‘It’s battle of the sexes,’ said Ross K. Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University, regarding the trend of male voters turning toward Trump and away from Harris. ‘The feeling is that for every advance women make, men necessarily lose.’ ‘In some instances, the statistics bear out this apprehension among men,’ he added, pointing to the declines in the number of men attending college as well as some of their earning power.'” • Important that this is swing state data. I wonder what’s happening with the marginal women who are swinging toward Trump and not Harris.

* * *

The Debate (September 10)

Readers, we will have a live blog for the Kamala-Trump throw-down tomorrow. Doors will open at 8:30pm ET.

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Kamala (D): “VP Kamala Harris pauses debate prep in Pittsburgh to visit Strip spice shop” [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette]. “During a brief break from debate preparations, Vice President Kamala Harris visited Penzeys Spices in the Strip District and met with supporters Saturday afternoon.” Quote from Kamala: “‘People are exhausted about the division and the attempts to kind of divide as Americans, and them stepping up to make this public statement, I think is courageous, but also for people like the folks I was just talking with, it really reinforces that we love our country and have more in common than what separates us,” she said.” • “Exhausted about the division” is like English, but it’s not English; Kamala sounds like Pelosi on one of her salad days. More importantly., the spice shop is Penzeys, whose site, for some reason, now throws a server error, but has fortunately been archived–

“About Republicans” [Penzeys]. Representative sample, and there’s a lot more like this: “The truth of our time is we’ve arrived at the point where there’s no way to respect the nonsense the Republican Party is promoting and have any hope of overcoming the problems we as a nation and we as a planet face. Given the choice between saving America and planet Earth or saving the feelings of Republican voters, we are choosing to side with saving our country and our world. I’m sorry it’s come to this. And no, there is no HATE!!! in any of this.” • Heaven forfend. But is this “division”? Sure is. So did Kamala’s advance team choose Penzys deliberately? That is, was this visit an attempt to take the high road visibly and the low road subliminally? Or was it just clumsy and stupid? One thing we do know:

Just so we’re clear on what “across from” means:

And indeed a search of Pennsyvalia Macaroni’s site for “spice” returns 205 hits, so I’m a little dubious about “just as many” too. Nevertheless, the message the campaign is sending is either absurdly Machiavellian or just plain stupid. Or perhaps there’s a more down-to-earth explanation:

Those little checks add up! Nice photo op, too:

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Trump (R): “The angry, divisive fallout of the Trump shooting in Butler County” [WaPo]. Liberal Democrats are never angry, and above all, never divisive. Now that we’ve settled that: “The long-simmering tensions in Butler that erupted after a [nearly assassinated Trump and killed or injured three others] gunman shot Trump in the ear at a rally have yet to cool nearly two months later…. Today, Butler is a community at a crossroads. The Cleveland-Cliffs Butler Works steel plant still provides 1,100 well-paying jobs. And while people here say many younger residents still move to find better paying jobs elsewhere, Butler is one of just two counties in Western Pennsylvania where the population is growing, according to 2020 to 2023 census data… The county’s rising population has made it a must-visit community for GOP candidates. Pennsylvania is considered a critical state for Trump this election. And while he’s likely to win Butler, analysts say what really matters is how much he wins by…. The Butler County Republican Party had long been marred by internal divisions, but chairman James E. Hulings said today it is more unified than it has been in years. He said the party gained 1,000 new voters over the summer. State voter registration records show Republicans have gained 2,000 new voters since December last year and now number 80,000…. Hulings said many Butler residents who have long stayed out of politics seem enthralled by Trump’s defiance after he was shot. Among those is Bill Secunda, 64, whose sculpture of Trump made out of 4,000 welded nails was recently displayed at the Butler Farm Show. The sculpture is meant to symbolize how Trump, from his perspective, is ‘tough as nails.'” • So the Trump campaign was smart to send him here, and now Trump voters throughout the state will crawl over broken glass to vote for him. I don’t think Kamala picking Shapiro would have made a bit of difference.

Trump (R): “Elton John Says Donald Trump Calling Kim Jong Un ‘Little Rocket Man’ Was ‘Brilliant,’ but Urges People to Vote for a ‘Calmer, Safer’ America” [Variety]. “‘I laughed, I thought that was brilliant,’ John told Variety‘s Ramin Setoodeh in an interview at Toronto Film Festival. ‘I just thought, ‘Good on you, Donald.’ … Donald’s always been a fan of mine, and he’s been to my concerts many, many times. So, I mean, I’ve always been friendly toward him, and I thank him for his support. When he did that, I just thought it was hilarious. It made me laugh.’ And but: ‘While John did not explicitly endorse either Kamala Harris or Trump, he asked rhetorically, ‘I just hope that people make the right decision to see what the future is going to be. Is it going to be fire and brimstone … or are we going to have a much calmer, a much safer place? People can vote for who they like, but as far as I’m concerned, I love love. And I’m a loving person, and I want that to come back to America. I feel it’s been lost in the last 12 years.'” ¨• Hmm. 2024 – 12 = 2012, so the rot set in during Obama’s second term?

* * *

Kennedy (I): This is absolutely terrific:

As readers know, I love stupid humor. And this is really stupid!

Our Famously Free Press

“Trump’s real Project 2025 was written for him in Moscow by Vladimir Putin’s men” [Will Bunch, Philadelphia Inquirer]. • I read the whole thing. Yes, Project 2025 was written by Heritage Foundation goons and not in Moscow by Putin’s agents (let’s not be sexist, mkay?). Bunch is recycling RussiaRussiaRussia, Now With Influencers!™. It’s as if Bunch thinks conservatives can’t come up with bad ideas all on their own. Or oppo. Unlike AIPAC influencers, of course, who have nothing but good ideas and never do oppo (and if you want to see an example of an effective, professional foreign influence operation, one that actually drives US policy and defeats US politicians, see Mearsheimer and Walt’s “The Israel Lobby,” which makes everything liberal Democrat demon figure Putin has done look like the pissant, minor league diddleysh*t that it is). Sheesh.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Look for the Helpers

Mask blocs are great, and kudos to those who set them up:

Maybe set one up in Nassau County? Just a thought…

Airborne Transmission

“Upper-room ultraviolet light and negative air ionization to prevent tuberculosis transmission” [PLOS Medicine]. From 2009, still germane. From the Abstract: “We evaluated the efficacy of upper-room ultraviolet (UV) lights and negative air ionization for preventing airborne TB transmission using a guinea pig air-sampling model to measure the TB infectiousness of ward air.” But: “Upper-room UV lights and negative air ionization each prevented most airborne TB transmission detectable by guinea pig air sampling. Provided there is adequate mixing of room air, upper-room UV light is an effective, low-cost intervention for use in TB infection control in high-risk clinical settings.” • Underlining that UV alone is not sufficient.

Transmission: Covid

Because of course:

Airborne Transmission: Mpox

“Contact Tracing for Mpox Clade II Cases Associated with Air Travel — United States, July 2021–August 2022” [Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, CDC]. This sounds re-assuring, but here is the key paragraph:

CDC adapted the mpox community exposure risk assessment§ to define an exposure risk zone for aircraft contact investigations. In general, air passengers seated within a 3-foot radius (one seat in any direction) of the potentially infectious person on flights of ≤3 hours’ duration or within a 6-foot radius (two seats in any direction) on flights of >3 hours’ duration were considered to be in the exposure risk zone.

But that’s not how airflow in airplanes works (CDC is still in the grip of droplet dogma, where coughing is seen as the key mode of distance, and hence a radius is established for how long the droplets will be “in the air”). Sadly, I do not have the study that shows this to hand — it’s in that thread somewhere — but bug me about it if you want it.

Vaccines: Covid

“The gut microbiota modifies antibody durability and booster responses after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination” [Journal of Translational Medicine]. From the Abstract: “The findings of this study underscored the potential interaction between the gut microbiome and the longevity/boosting effect of antibodies following vaccination against SARS-CoV-2. The identification of specific microbial associations suggests the prospect of microbiome-based strategies for enhancing vaccine efficacy.” • Interesting!

Elite Maleficence

CDC messing about with maps, again:

A map I never link to, for obvious reasons (nobody travels or lives in a State, with respect to Covid; they travel to or live in a city or town, a place with a wastewater plant).

Just trying to be helpful:

* * *

Lambert here: The figures look mildly encouraging for now, but I would expect an immediate worsening after Labor Day travel kicks in, along with grade schools, high schools, and colleges starting up. Stay safe out there!

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
★ This week[1] CDC August 27 Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC August 31 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC August 31

Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data September 6: National [6] CDC August 17:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens September 3: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic August 24:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC August 19: Variants[10] CDC August 19:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC August 31: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC August 31:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading. NOTE The date seems to be wrong, but the number of sites has changed so this is new.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flat, that is, no longer down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop, but all those white states showing no change: Labor Day weekend reporting issues?

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up. If the United States is like Canada, deaths are several undercounted:

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today.

* * *

Supply Chain: “The largest dockworkers’ union in the U.S. is signaling that it’s more focused right now on preparing for a strike than on getting to the bargaining table” [Logistics Report, Wall Street Journal]. “The International Longshoremen’s Association concluded meetings last week aimed at finalizing plans for the union’s first walkout targeting East Coast and Gulf Coast ports in 50 years. …[T]he expiration of the current contract is now just three weeks away and no negotiations on a new agreement are on the calendar. Union President Harold Daggett says the ILA won’t sit down with employers unless they agree to a 77% pay increase over six years, a big jump over the 32% wage gains that the union for West Coast dockworkers won last year.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Signs Massive Lease Near Seattle as Aircraft Giant Ramps Up Production” [CoStar (PI)]. “Boeing has signed one of the biggest industrial leases of the past two years in the Seattle area, taking more than 1 million square feet at a just-completed building near the Port of Tacoma…. The deal is one of the top industrial leases in the United States ranked by square footage this year and is the largest deal in the greater Seattle area since 2022, CoStar data shows.” • Seems like Boeing won’t be using the space for parking. And this is a tangible signal that there’s more work in unionized Renton.

Manufacturing: “Machinists union agrees on tentative contract deal with Boeing” [Seattle Times (PI)]. “But many workers said the deal falls short of their demands, leaving the possibility of work stoppage on the table. The 11th-hour agreement — reached at about 2:30 a.m. Sunday, with the news publicly released a couple of hours later — will avoid a strike if a majority of the union’s members ratify the deal, as recommended by International Association of Machinists District 751 President Jon Holden, who led the negotiations. The contract offers workers a 25% general wage increase, enhanced retirement benefits, fewer hours of mandatory overtime work and increased parental leave. And, in what could prove a historic element of the contract for this region, Boeing offered a first-of-its-kind commitment that if it launches an all-new plane in the next four years, that jet will be built in the Puget Sound area by the local workforce.” • Why not a seat on the board? Or two seats? And 25% looks a little ambitious beside the ILU’s 77%,

Tech: “MI6 and CIA using generative AI to combat tech-driven threat actors” [The Register]. “‘We are now using AI, including generative AI, to enable and improve intelligence activities – from summarization to ideation to helping identify key information in a sea of data,’ the pair wrote in the Financial Times. ‘We are training AI to help protect and ‘red team’ our own operations to ensure we can still stay secret when we need to. We are using cloud technologies so our brilliant data scientists can make the most of our data, and we are partnering with the most innovative companies in the US, UK and around the world,’ they added.” • Let me know how that works out…

Tech: Business model:

Entertainment: “The Palace Coup at the Magic Kingdom” [New York Times]. Or, as some like to call it, Mauschwitz: “For a company that bills its theme parks as the ‘Happiest Place on Earth,’ Disney’s corporate headquarters have long been anything but — a hotbed of intrigue and power struggles. Chapek’s former chief of staff told people the company’s sixth-floor executive suite was a ‘snake pit.’ Iger ascended almost two decades ago, after a power struggle between Michael Eisner, a long-serving CEO, and Roy E. Disney, Walt Disney’s nephew and a Disney board member. By that time, Eisner had already elevated and then dispatched two handpicked successors, Jeffrey Katzenberg, who became co-founder of DreamWorks, and Michael Ovitz, once the most powerful agent in Hollywood. Iger, who started his career as a weather forecaster on a cable channel in upstate New York, had vowed to never follow in Eisner’s footsteps.” • Nice people!

Entertainment: “Disney-obsessed couple lose lawsuit to get back into exclusive Club 33” [Los Angeles Times]. “As members of Disney’s exclusive Club 33, Scott and Diana Anderson visited the two Anaheim theme parks 60 to 80 times a year. The private club, with its wood-paneled trophy room and other amenities, was the center of their social life. They brought friends, acquaintances and business associates. As a couple, they went on the Haunted Mansion ride nearly 1,000 times. The club’s yearly dues were $31,500, and with travel and hotel expenses, the Arizona couple were spending close to $125,000 annually to get their Disney fix. All of it came to an end in 2017, when Disney revoked their membership in the club after an allegation that Scott Anderson was drunk in public. Diana Anderson, a hard-core Disney aficionado since childhood, called it ‘a stab in the heart.'” Skipping the details, which include a defense that Anderson’s seemingly drunken behavior was caused by “vestibular migraine.” Concluding: “My wife and I are both dead set that this is an absolute wrong, and we will fight this to the death,” Scott, who owns a golf course in Gilbert, Ariz., told The Times. ‘There is no way we’re letting this go.’ He said the lawsuit has cost him about $400,000. ‘My retirement is set back five years,’ he said. ‘I’m paying through the nose. Every day, I’m seeing another bill, and I’m about to keel over.’ He said he will appeal. His wife said she wants to keep fighting. ‘I’ll sell a kidney,’ Diana said. ‘I don’t care.'” • Nice people!

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 43 Fear (previous close: 39 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 62 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 9 at 12:45:32 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes down one on Oil Supply/Price. “Oil demand is dpwn” [sic] [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 181. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Hard to believe the Rapture Index is going down. Where are there people getting their news?

Gallery

High key:

Guillotine Watch

Sharks gotta swim, bats gotta fly:

Class Warfare

“Is economics in need of trustbusting?” [Editorial Board, Financial Times]. And the deck: “An elite closed shop of economists at US universities sparks concerns over groupthink.” You don’t say. “A study documents a “high and rising” concentration of Nobel Prize winners in a handful of top US universities: more than half their combined career time has been spent at just eight economics departments. Equivalent measures for other disciplines, from natural sciences to the humanities, are going the other way. There are other signs of economics turning into an elite closed shop: the handful of journals acting as gatekeepers to career advancement are largely controlled by economists from the same top departments, who also disproportionately pass through the revolving doors into policymaking jobs. This cartelisation may have similar causes to concentration elsewhere, from “superstar” dynamics enabled by information technology to the tendency of financial advantage to compound. But does it lead to wasted resources and inferior output, as in other markets?” • Well, “inferior” is just a word. Are they doing what they were hired to do? I’d say they are.

News of the Wired

Word of the day has wide application:

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

TH writes: “And what self-respecting Botanical Garden (in this case, San Diego’s) doesn’t have a lovely tranquil ‘stop and meditate awhile’ pond? This one stands complete with lovely yellow blossoms sprinkled across its surface, a plethora of lush green plants along its borders, muddy green frogs that so blend with the water-color that all one sees of them is their big yellow eyes, and a small convention of hovering dragon and damselflies.” This looks lovely and peaceful, and I wish I were sitting beside that pond right now.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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44 comments

  1. Martin Oline

    A new episode of What Are the Odds with the host Richard Baris and guest Robert Barnes started at 2PM ET through People’s Pundit on Utube. They say they will compare the polling between 2020 and 2024, the post Labor day presidential race and predictions. If you don’t have TDS and are retired (have the time) this may interest you but it is likely to go past 4PM as they both like to talk. What Are The Odds?

    Reply ↓
  2. Henry Moon Pie

    Help! My browser has gotten stuck on a Mobius strip!

    As for Kamala’s slumping numbers, I need no further confirmation than the thirty minutes of Morning Joe I endured this morning. Apparently, the thrill is gone as Joe and Mika (in the same room!) and the gang spent the first half hour in a TDS frenzy.

    Sing and play it, B. B.

    Reply ↓
    1. Carolinian

      Kamala just seems sooooo boring. She needs a good scandal to get our attention. Dead boy or live girl? Oh wait all the flashbacks have me citing last century’s quips.

      Oddly Trump’s commie baiting fashback may be workig according to above polls. Guess I don’t get out much among our business Republicans.

      Reply ↓
  6. Wukchumni

    $31k membership a year for a nice bar/restaurant in Disneyland?

    That’s burning money, man.

    By the way the only for sure flew @ Burning Man is the alkali dust. We had almost nothing in the way of duststorms (the media often calls it sand-now that would be wicked!) the whole week and then on Sunday during the Temple burn, a Scirocco came calling and on our bike ride back to camp, 3 of us had practically no visibility-eventually walking them and as long as you have capable goggles on, you’re good to go.

    Reply ↓
    1. Carolinian

      A lot of people seem to have had their brains captured by early life trips to Disneyland–probably some kind of Mr Subliminal hypnotism cooked up in the Disney labs. I cleverly avoided by living on wrong side of the country (one of our classmates showed us slides of her visit. It seemed swell).

      Reply ↓
      1. Wukchumni

        We went once a year living 20 miles away, it was an LA kid rite of passage, and cheap-like $4 for entry & tix. One of the rides I adored as a kid was ‘Autopia’ which was basically a primer for LA freeways and stop and go driving-complete with minor auto collisions. You had to be {this tall} to drive, and I remember standing near on tip-toe when I was almost tall enough.

        I was probably more corrupted by Marlin Perkins than the Wide World of Disney on TV, and more specifically Jim down there with the pack of Hyenas.

        Reply ↓
  7. tommy s.

    Lambert have you read Black Flags and Windmills by Scott crow? Fascinating book….also points out that FBI plant too. Malik Rahim is somewhat central. John tracy is finishing up an auto/interview bio of him now.

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  8. Mark Gisleson

    Geek Social Fallacy #1 sounds a lot like how consensus driven groups can be tortured by just one or two hardcore dissidents. Also sounds like myriad municipal govt public meetings where a handful of cranks routinely take up half the time.

    Not a fan of the five fallacies as they seem to assume all geeks are PMCs; “family” was only mentioned twice, neither time in the context of blood relatives. Wild guess: these observations are about a very large Geek subculture: foreign born techs. Immigration is a real spark for many but can be overwhelming for introverted ESL IT workers leading to unnecessary but predictably deferential behavior.

    Reading his blog post I was reminded of some of my more assumptive political horse race comments at NC (the kind that irk our hosts). Suileabhain-Wilson writes books based on role playing games which rely on predictable characters whose actions are determined by rolling dice. His certainty comes across loud and clear but it’s 100% his opinion written generically with a disclaimer at the end that he’s not talking about anyone specifically which means he’s probably writing about a lot of people he knows personally. I doubt this post will reach its intended audience.

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  9. dk

    Helpers and “… we don’t have typhoons, but tornadoes and hurricanes; it might not be possible to give the same sort of help.”

    The opportunities to help only exist where community exists. In my secret cabin far from the madding crowd, no one is there to rescue me in my need; I had arranged it that way.

    Now, when community *does* exist, when people are all around us, and they see us and we see them, *then* the absence of help, the opportunity deferred, is an observation on the nature of such a community that we’ve become part of. It grew into us as we grew into it; to be around each other and feel we don’t need each other, with the corollary that no one needs us; not really, not urgently, not helplessly.

    Wide-area network communication contributes to this. It lets us enrich ourselves — experientially, not just economically, although economies are necessarily communities of some order — without the constraint of physical proximity. But without proximity, who will help, and whom can we help even when we’re willing?

    Sure, the thin fleeced coins though Gofundme do convey some memory of a warmth that came with a look in the eye or a warm word, a squeezed hand or a quick tight hug; but it’s still a memory we have to invoke and enliven for ourselves, even in our desperate moment.

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  10. Samuel Conner

    I’d prefer to avert my gave from The “Debate” tomorrow night (the prior “The Debate”, was painful to watch), but it’s probably consequential enough that I will regret not giving it attention.

    Will there be a NC live ‘blog thread?

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      1. mrsyk

        I’m can’t decide between “Way”, in the context of “way too much”, or “obviously”.
        Gag me with a spoon, heh heh.

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    2. Screwball

      The Big Event!!!!! Might be the best comedy special since George Carlin passed.

      I laugh at my PMC friends who refuse to watch. They all say pretty much the same thing – why would we watch – all Trump does is lie. Along with “I can’t stand to look at or hear that POS, so I won’t be watching.”

      Okey-dokey then. I’m guessing they don’t want to watch in case COMMA-lah lays an egg, or says some stupid things. They don’t want to see that. It will be safer to miss it, then use Tweet’s and pundit sound bytes from their favorite echo chamber ghouls (Like Aaron Ruper, Bill Kristol, Matty from WaPo, etc.) how COMMA-lah destroyed the Orange Hitler.

      IMO, this is really on Trump. If he wants to win, and I think he does this time (not so sure about last time), he needs to prove he has the capability to shut up when he needs to, and not turn this into a giant pissing match. Keep to the issues and issues only – don’t get personal. Allow Harris to ad lib all she wants, and when she starts digging a hole, hand her a shovel. IOW, act presidential. Can he do that? I have my doubts, and it may cost him dearly.

      If, and a big if, Trump smokes her, and she starts dropping in the polls in the next week, it’s going to get, as Artie Johnson would say “very interesting.” I put nothing past what team blue will do. Nothing.

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    3. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Will there be a NC live ‘blog thread?

      Definitely. It would be extraordinary if it were as consequential as the last one, either way, but this has, again, been a volatile year. Readers will, in any case, have fun.

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  11. griffen

    Egads, a Will Bunch article. Oh darn it, reached my limit free article maximum, so I can only have wild hallucinations and the most fervent of vintage fever dreams of what a loyalist to the Russians Russians!! themed reporting has spewed forth.

    Vomit worthy, it is my presumption. Dear good grief can’t the lamest of writers, eh journalists, spew out something new and possibly not tried before?

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  12. Wukchumni

    In her quest to be Caesar in tomorrow’s debate, no doubt she’ll will address the French, Italian and even Russian problems back at the Ranch, for no candidate for highest office in the land is a Thousand Island to thyself, and by the way, expect the pivot to Green Goddess-a neo Eco warrior.

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    1. griffen

      I prefer a BLT sandwich with my word salad to go but it’s just personal choice. Hey a crossover promotion opportunity for Panera or a comparable chain…watch the debate and scan a QR code for a two item lunch pairing the following day!?! Bonus points for any chain that might do so, and using the QR code will mean you dear consumer can pay the 2019 price…\sarc

      Any BLT better have a dollop of mayo of course…as a child of the South it better be Duke’s mayonnaise.

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  13. dk

    Tech: “MI6 and CIA using generative AI to combat tech-driven threat actors” [The Register]. … • Let me know how that works out…

    From April:
    ‘Lavender’: The AI machine directing Israel’s bombing spree in Gaza
    The Israeli army has marked tens of thousands of Gazans as suspects for assassination, using an AI targeting system with little human oversight and a permissive policy for casualties, +972 and Local Call reveal.

    https://www.972mag.com/lavender-ai-israeli-army-gaza/

    The destruction of Palestine is a ongoing proof-of-concept arena — not the only one, just starker than most.

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  15. Wukchumni

    Everybody in the Big Smokes of Cali is hep to the idea that the Big One is coming, but we’ve been out of shape for 30 years, with the last temblor of note coming in 1994 in the City of Angles.

    It will be interesting to see how people react in terms of helping one another out, when it isn’t something you really think about, and few have made plans as in a supply of freshwater to last a week, simple stuff really, but nobody does it.

    There’s been more earthquakes in the high 3’s to low 5’s in SoCal than I can remember in quite awhile, shift happens.

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  16. lyman alpha blob

    RE: Disney-obsessed couple

    These Disney adult day drinkers (I’m assuming day drinking based on an earlier article about the day drinking Disney club that appeared here a while back) deserve it. First of all, drinking should be done after dark in a dimly lit and seedy bar, so everybody looks better. And secondly, Disney is for overly nice and maybe not the brightest children. Adults who frequent the place give me the willies. Or course, as a kid I always disliked the mouse and much preferred the more sarcastic Looney Tunes. If it were up to me, I’d feed this couple some alum and then drop an anvil on their heads.

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    1. Carolinian

      There ya go. We loved Bullwinkle too. But my brother and I did have a childhood fascination with Haley Mills. I watched Parent Trap twice in a row while my mom was at work.

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  17. Lambert Strether Post author

    I have added orts and scraps, including Kamala’s weird visit to Penzeys spices in Pittsburgh, which took a bit of effort to disentangle. Oddly, despite the super photo op, there was very little national coverage. Enjoy!

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  18. Michael McK

    I read the Philly Inquire project 2025 jab with the word “real” emphasized and it seems like they mean Trump will have his own project 2025, written by the Kremlin.

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  22. Samuel Conner

    re: the “Penzeys” ort/scrap,

    I have been using Penzeys spice mixes intermittently since the ’90s. They are IMO very expensive but it is possible to get the cost down a bit by purchasing discounted gift cards and waiting to use them on sale items.

    In particular, I really like Penzeys’ “Galena Street” rub and “Fajita Seasoning.” I once tried to “reverse engineer” one or the other of these, in the hope of mixing my own at lower cost, but I never got close.

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    1. Samuel Conner

      One thing about Penzeys that I find somewhere on the spectrum from annoying to amusing to “gutsy” is that they definitely wear their politics on their sleeve. And they package some of their products in ways that might strike some as “inspiring” but others as “sanctimonious.” There’s a spice gift box colorfully decorated with the wording “Choose Love.” There’s a spice blend called, I think “Justice”. Email blasts are sometimes coordinated with recent political news. The slant of these political marketing emails is decidely on the “D” side.

      It might just be “marketing” targeted to what the marketers think is a group that is likely to increase its purchases of $$ products if it perceives the seller to be politically sympathetic (“annoying” to me as I don’t like to believe that I may be being manipulated in that way), but I wonder whether it’s actually an expression of conviction (which would, to my mind, make it appear more “gutsy” since it might alienate some customers).

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      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > There’s a spice gift box colorfully decorated with the wording “Choose Love.” There’s a spice blend called, I think “Justice”.

        Do they have one called “In this house?”

        No but seriously, I have no issue with Penzeys, bless their hearts. But Kamala — Ellipsala, Emdashala, Quoteala, QuestionMarkala, Interrobangala — cannot promote, or at least should give consideration to not promoting, an end to “division” at a store with an About page like Penzeys has, which just screams “deplorables!” but using a lot more words.

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    2. MaggieNC

      Galena St. Rub is the best ..and a “secret” that makes husband’s smoked pork ribs a crowd favorite! Our daughter loves their chili spices… and yes…purchasing and then using discounted gift cards really is very helpful…

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      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        Sure. The issue is not Penzeys the store but — follow me closely here, this was all filed under the heading “2024” — the use Kamala made of them (and what that says about their campaign which [checks above] has a mere 57 days to go.

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