Last week the European Parliament passed a resolution that calls for Western countries to strike inside Russia with long range missiles, the confiscation of Russian assets, and ever tougher sanctions against Moscow. It received the support from 425 MEPs — a slight decrease from the parliament’s first document adopted after the June elections, which called for Ukraine support for as long as it takes was supported by 495 MEPs out of 720.
In Germany, the sputtering engine of the EU, voters are making it increasingly difficult to keep up with the chutzpah of the European Parliament. The biggest Russia war cheerleaders like Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock aren’t quite as vocal as they used to be following the beating voters delivered to them in June’s European elections and recent state votes.
Yesterday’s state election in Brandenburg, which encircles Berlin, provided a temporary respite for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s beleaguered Social Democratic Party (SPD), which came in first with 30.7 percent.
The sovereignist, enthno-nationalist Alternative for Germany placed second with 29.5 percent.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), another sovereignist party that focuses on antiwar and working class issues, came in third at 13.5 percent.
The SPD’s first-place finish isn’t as impressive as it would seem. The party, which has ruled Brandenburg since German reunification, saw its support decline from 31.9 percent in the last election in 2019, and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was likely sacrificed in order to get it there.
The CDU plummeted from 23 in 2019 to 12 percent with many voters throwing their support behind the SPD.
Crucially, the Greens fell below the five percent threshold, which means they will not be have any seats in the state parliament. That rule in Germany, intended to prevent gridlock, now looks more likely to help produce it.
The initial results mean that the SPD will have to form a coalition with either the AfD or BSW. Regardless, the AfD will have 30 out of 88 seats, which due to the “firewall” pact among parties not to work with the AfD, means it will have the ability to block decisions and elections that require a two-thirds majority, such as the election of constitutional judges.
There is just one more state election on the calendar (a March vote in Hamburg, an SPD stronghold) before next fall’s national elections.
While all three September state elections (Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia) took place on fertile ground for the AfD and BSW, the results are still striking in a Germany known for its cherished stability.
The results in Brandenburg mean that the AfD took home two silvers and one gold.The BSW, essentially a one-woman party that formed only nine months ago, came in third in all three races.
The two insurgent parties took everything the establishment could throw at them, and voters still made them serious challengers in the political battle over Germany’s future that is just beginning.
US Colony or Sovereign State?
In an effort to halt the rise of the AfD and BSW, all of the major centrist parties are now supporting much stricter immigration control. One can see why as immigration has consistently topped voters’ list of concerns — unsurprisingly when the record levels of immigrants coincides with a retracting economy, a housing crisis, and social spending cuts.
Despite the endless warnings against the dangers of the AfD’s anti-immigrant positions, all of the center parties were quick to throw the immigrant welcome mat overboard when the AfD and BSW started attracting more voters.
They have not been willing to touch the broader issue of vassalage to the US and a self-defeating Russia policy, however. They might be forced to.
It is going to be impossible for the center parties to govern in the three eastern states without Wagenknecht’s party (or without giving up on the AfD firewall). And what does Wagenknecht want in return?
She’s looking for the CDU to make concessions on support for Project Ukraine and even more importantly when looking to the future, the stationing of US long range missiles in Germany.
And it’s possible that similar coalition math could be in play after next year’s national elections if the AfD and BSW can continue to peel away voters from the Atlanticist center. Here’s the current state of polling:
As of now, this would mean only 5 parties in the Bundestag, and the CDU would be forced to side with its fellow Atlanticists, the SPD and the hated Greens, or forget the firewall and team up with the AfD.
But a year is a long time.
The major problem for the three parties of the ruling traffic light coalition (SPD, Greens and Free Democratic Party) is that all signs point to the economy continuing to tank and their support will likely continue sink along with it.
Border controls to keep out immigrants won’t do anything to keep industry in. Companies that rely on cheap and reliable energy continue to leave the country due to Germany’s Russia policy.
As long as Berlin is working more for Atlanticist interests rather than national ones, it will be almost impossible to turn the economy around, as well.
Germany is now under pressure to get rid of its China dependency the same way it did with Russia. The consequences like loss of access to critical minerals, which China increasingly controls, are rarely considered. And so here’s Germany provocatively sending its Navy ships through the Taiwan Strait. Nobody is too sure what this achieves other than showing Berlin’s commitment to Washington’s goals.
Or maybe the government in Germany is just a glutton for punishment. Aside from Ukraine, no one has been hurt more than Germany by war against Russia.
The loss of Russian natural gas drove the final nail through the coffin of Germany’s economic model, the reverberations of which are still being felt. Here we are 2.5 years later and Berlin is now struggling to phase out coal.
All the economic news out of the country is an endless stream of bad to worse. Intel just canceled a planned microchip manufacturing center. Volkswagen is looking at closing some operations. And many other crown jewels of German industry are doing the same. This would be bad news anywhere, but especially in Germany where manufacturing still accounts for nearly a quarter of the German economy and employs 20 percent of the German workforce.
If the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines (and ensuing damage to the German economy) severed the relationship between Moscow and Berlin, the plan to station US long range missiles in Germany starting in 2026 is an attempt to guarantee it remains severed.
A more sovereign Germany would not be “supporting” Ukraine, the state that was behind the Nord Stream bombings according to Germany’s own investigation. Berlin would be working to get the gas flowing again. And it certainly wouldn’t agree to host US missiles aimed at Moscow.
The centrist Atlanticists of course endorsed that latter move while the AfD and BSW opposed it. From DW:
“Chancellor Scholz is not acting in Germany’s interest,” said Tino Chrupalla, co-leader of the AfD, which continues to oppose German arms deliveries to Ukraine.
“He is allowing Germany’s relationship with Russia to be permanently damaged, and we are falling back into the pattern of the East-West conflict,” Chrupalla said, adding that the US missile deployment would make “Germany a target.”
And that’s the point. It locks Germany into a self-destructive role on the frontlines of the New Cold War.
That’s a position that already requires hundreds of billions to in support for the German economy. The German business association BDI just released a study claiming that 20 percent of industrial value creation in the country is under threat. At the top of the list of causes is high energy prices and it says Germany needs about $1.55 trillion of investment by 2030.
Businesses looking for help covering the self-imposed energy crisis aren’t the only ones looking for more money from Berlin.
As Project Ukraine reaches its inevitable conclusion there is no sign that the hostility towards Russia will abate (see the European Parliament vote above), and Germany is also facing pressure from all sides to pony up for common EU debt that would be used to purchase more expensive and less reliable US liquified natural gas and fund military purchases by the bloc.
The hits are likely to keep coming for Germany as the economy continues to slide, social spending is cut further, military spending increases, and even more pressure is piled on to “derisk” from China.
All that means that the newfound concern about immigration likely ain’t going to cut it with voters, and the Atlanticists are going to have an increasingly difficult time keeping up the hardline Russia positions as the AfD and BSW continue to increase their support.
Looking Forward to 2025
From the German sovereignist side, there was some hope that the CDU might be consumed by infighting ahead of the 2025 national elections the same way they were in 2021, which could open the door to further AfD and BSW gains. CDU chief Friedrich Merz and the head of Bavaria’s conservatives, Markus Soeder, recently buried the hatchet, however, and Merz will be the undisputed CDU candidate for chancellor.
The CDU remains at the top of national polls and is fortunate to be out of power as the economy worsens. Merz, however, is also a former Blackrock executive and is not well-liked. As of now, Merz fully supports Atlanticist positions like continuing to support Project Ukraine and the sationing of the US long range missiles in Germany.
Can Wagenknecht force a change there through government-forming negotiations in East Germany states? We’ll see.
There is ongoing talk of Chancellor Scholz stepping aside ala Biden, but the election results in Brandenburg yesterday likely bought him more time. While the SPD didn’t completely embarrass itself like it did in the June European elections and the two state elections earlier this month, Scholz’s chancellorship is still on life support. He remains historically unpopular, and the party’s win in Brandenburg likely had to do more with the governor’s popularity as well as the strategic shift in support from the center-right CDU to the center-left SPD in order to prevent an AfD win.
It would still be surprising to see Scholz as the SPD candidate next year.
Defense minister Boris Pistorius who has been pounding the table for endless military spending ever since he was plucked from the obscure position as the Lower Saxony State Minister of the Interior and Sports is the man who’s always named as Scholz’s likely replacement. He continues to be the most popular politician in Germany. Why? Well, at least one recent poll shows that a clear majority of Germans support more national defense spending.
It wouldn’t make much sense to promote him to chancellor now as that would mean he’d start to receive the blame for the slow economic collapse. Best to switch out Scholz closer to the 2025 election and present Pistorius as the face of change.
Habeck is already slated to be the Green candidate. The party somewhat inexplicably still polls around 10 percent, but then again the party is also sometimes described as a cult.
National AfD support has leveled off in recent months, but it might still have the chance to become the CDU’s junior partner in the next government. Would that mean the AfD caves on some of anti-NATO and German sovereignty positions or does the CDU continue to move towards the AfD as it has on immigration?
And then there’s Wagenknecht, head of the party that bears her name and one that is still building itself out after launching nine months ago. How much higher of a ceiling does she have? Her broad appeal suggests a decent amount more — if she can continue to connect her antiwar stance to the dire straits of the economy.
The AfD voter is typically younger, male, less well-educated, and working class, and the CDU is more heavily supported by older, wealthier voters. Wagenknecht, on the other hand, draws voters more evenly from across social demographic groups.
Despite all the media efforts to lump Wagenknecht and the AfD together as Kremlin-controlled, anti-democratic far-right threats, the fact is the parties are polar opposites. Just a few examples:
- BSW proposes a fairer tax system that benefits the working class, such as the demand for an excess profits tax in the industrial sector. The AfD wants to slash taxes across the board, including those that are progressive and serve to redistribute wealth, such as the inheritance tax
- BSW believes in global warming and wants to continue to take climate action but work to soften the economic blow to the working class. The AfD rejects climate science. In its EU election manifesto, it says that the “claim of a threat through human-made climate change” is “CO2 hysterics,” and it would do away with climate laws that reduce prosperity and freedoms.
- BSW wants to strengthen the social safety net. The AfD stresses the limits of the state’s role.
Unlike the ruling coalition, Wagenknecht has been careful not to criticize AfD supporters, and unlike other parties, Wagenknecht says she will work with the AfD on issues where there is overlap, i.e., Russia and NATO, since that’s about the only area of common vision.
The simultaneous surge from the AfD and Wagenknecht is putting the CDU between a rock and a hard place. Either uphold the firewall against the AfD and form alliances with BSW after making concessions to Wagenknecht on long range missiles and general Russia policy. Or bring the AfD, which has been dubbed the second coming of Hitler for years now, into power and potentially dent CDU support in the process.
Either way, the post-WWII German “consensus” of stable center coalitions is quickly coming to an end. Considering how much damage the current government has done to Germany, it can’t come soon enough.
The problem is that even if — and it’s a big if — the AfD and/or BSW can succeed it making Berlin work for German interests again, the world isn’t standing still while Berlin tries to sort itself out. Russia’s economy, unlike Germany’s, wasn’t dependent on the Nord Stream pipelines as it is simply redirecting supplies towards China, India, and others as part of its Eurasian integration.
Russian officials including President Vladimir Putin still insist that they’ll turn on the gas in the one Nord Stream pipeline that is still operational. Germany hasn’t taken them up on the offer.
While German industry would likely be facing difficulties these days one way or the other due to its decades-long reliance on the wage suppression model, a lack of investment, and the rise of Chinese manufacturing, the loss of cheap and reliable Russian energy made it so all these problems are now weighing on Germany simultaneously.
The Greens’ insistence that Germany close its remaining nuclear power plants only made the situation more dire.
In the meantime, things could always get worse before they get better. Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck is today hosting representatives from Germany’s once-powerful automobile industry at a “car summit” to determine a way forward. With Habeck’s track record, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the steady flow of industry out of the country turn into a stampede for the exits following the meeting.
Excellent overview. Thanks, Conor, for a more sensible analysis than most commentators employed by German media are capable of. The anti-AfD hysteria has been off the charts, with supposedly serious pundits hallucinating that it’s 1933 all over again.
Excellent summary.
The legacy parties are shit scared of peace in Ukraine. If Puin is clever and grants the existence of Ukraine provided she won´t become part of NATO the inevitable question in Germany will be what was all of that for? Everybody knows that and therefore the German political establishment is just as shitless as Selensky. Wagenknecht´s problem is that she opposes Nationalism but her opposition to NATO is based on the politics of Germany first. She won´t admit that but it unites her with the AFD to an extent that is utterly scandalous to the ruling elites. Let´s see what happens. I can only hope that she ignores the firewall.
Maybe being in an anglophone bubble has inured me with cynicism, but I don’t understand why the parties would care. Can’t they just ignore the issue and get the media to pivot to something else?
Germany was set up as a Parteistaat. If Lenin designed CPSU to be Vanguard of Proletariat then German Parties were entrusted to embody the General Will in German State and they divided up the spoils. Lots of jobs depend on political alignment and not only in public sector.
Then there is Atlantik-Brücke and any politico looking for US Dollar privilege needs to belong. There are lots of ways to serve USA
Germany uses Direct Mandate plus List. Greens have 16 directly elected MPs and 113 on List like Baerbock who has no constituency unlike Habeck
The List is a Party thing and where you are on the List is key – so if you get 5% across nation you get extra seats and more taxpayer money for Party. Germany has largest legislature on earth – then again in terms of physical structure White House is a shack compared to Federal chancellery in Berlin
Parties are rich – SPD owns a cruise liner and FDP has a castle in Spain – SPD owns lots of newspapers
Ladies and gentlemen, consider this statement:
“Nobody is too sure what this achieves other than showing Berlin’s commitment to Washington’s goals.”
I ask, Is there a better definition of slavery?
Outstanding article. Thank you.
Tom67: Let´s see what happens.
It’s already clear what will happen.
[1] In 2-3 months the issues of immigration and Ukraine will converge in Germany as Ukrainians flee West because of the wintertime collapse of Ukraine’s energy grid, which is foreordained as the Russians have already destroyed sufficient grid capability.
An already-overstretched Germany has no means — no housing, schools, etc — to receive another 500k migrants, and under ordoliberal economics German cities and villages, whose mayors repeatedly have said the boat is full, will be particularly hard hit.
[2] The German national system will therefore reel as it hasn’t done since WW2 and the current utterly inept political leaders, having demonstrably not a clue, will have no recourse but denial of the problems, which will then worsen and become more destabilizing.
[3] Because Germany was the industrial economic motor of the EU, the EU will also increasingly become destabilized. As this will be occurring simultaneously with the US election and its outcome — also inevitably destabilizing there, whoever the notional winner — Putin has no reason either to discontinue the slow grind in Ukraine and the consequent degradation of US/NATO capabilities, or to accept any rump Ukrainian state that might pretend it won’t enter NATO only to rescind its word a few years later.
Putin and Russia are thus most likely to continue the war till Ukraine has effectively been flattened as an independent nation-state with any potential to be a threat to Russia at any time in the foreseeable future.
Not incidentally, here’s the mirror world version of Conor’s piece, from the FT and its editor
Germany, political extremism and the risks to Ukraine
archived – https://archive.ph/MKZQV
original – https://www.ft.com/content/b009c2e6-790f-489d-98e6-c36e856401bb
“Combine the AfD vote with that of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and something like a third of Germans — and many more in eastern Germany — are voting for populist parties that are militantly anti-migration, hostile to Nato and determined to cut off aid to Ukraine. When Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the Bundestag in June, all but four of the AfD’s 77 members boycotted his speech.
“The policy stances taken by the AfD and BSW, combined with accusations that many AfD members have an undeclared agenda that is even more extremist, mean that Germany’s traditional parties will refuse to go into coalition with the populists — at least at the national level. But the rise of the political extremes is already having an influence on government policies. Germany’s decision to impose border controls with its EU neighbours reflects the angst about illegal migration that the populists have capitalised on.”
And so, blah, blah, blah.
I read Gideon Rachmann’s book Easternisation, he is a total US stooge, why do these people lie so easily, they have no morals?! (Not surprised the Chinese banned him).
Your first phrase might turn to be exactly the factor that clicks the political shift button, and not only in Germany. Though i am probably being too optimistic as usual.
In the news in Germany yesterday they claimed that a large part of the voters who cast their ballot for SPD did that not because they like SPD but to block AfD from winning. Fascinating that they actually allowed this piece of information go through. SPD is standing on a house of sand.
“I don’t care who votes. I care who counts the votes.” Or words to that effect. I registered some fleeting content recently that claimed the legacy German parties successfully changed the recent “outcome” in an important local election from cold to hot, by means of post-hoc “discovery of discrepancies. “ Was I just dreaming this, since the article makes no mention of electoral finagling? Though I think that in most of the West, elections are just window dressing to “legitimize” the rules the elite adopt for us mopes, based on pure assumption of power.
Yes, seemingly 75% SPD voters claim to have voted SPD to block AfD. These voters were apparently 60+ and AfD expresses concern about Postal Vote harvesting in retirement and nursing homes
There is nowadays 30% postal voting in elections and it has been a feature in fraud in U.K. and US and Germany
Conor, thank you so much for this window into German politics and the German economy. Most enlightening.
US Colony or Sovereign State?
A Colony
Yes, how can a state be sovereign when it’s occupied by tens of thousands of foreign soldiers?
One thing AfD can do however is push for a Committee to investigate COVID in at least 3 state legislatures which can only discredit CDU and SPD and CSU
As for the one German frigate ‚menacing‘ China – even though it is at 7000 tonnes a bit overweight and under- gunned it poses no threat to Chinese Type 052 or Type 055 vessels
Germany is a bit of a joke in that it cannot even crew its ships
The country has been under US supervision since Dawes in 1924 and even the 1933-45 Chancellor was funded by US patrons and supplied by Standard Oil and Brown Bros. throughout war. In 1947 US arranged with Adenauer to give him his Rheinland Republik as a Catholic CDU stronghold and jettison the Protestant East as a Soviet Zone
Since 1990 ALL leaders of CDU have been Protestant and its Catholic identity is gone. It now has worst relations with France since 1940 and probably the same with Poland whereas Russia is at 1941 levels.
AfD is the Party of East German Youth who want a change from the corrupt party system – watch Fassbinder movies to see what I mean – he had exquisite gems like Lola – he was insightful
All this sailing by US & Co is not to threaten Mainland China, but to keep the Taiwan Straights open and not subject to Chinese control, as it would be if the alliance would be seriously recognizing One China Policy rather than just paying lip service…
Peter Lee aka China hand mused once that the Chinese escalatory ladder doesn’t involve ramping to an invasion on Taiwan, but declaring the straights internal waters under Chinese jurisdiction and impose such control. NATO treaty doesn’t provide for attacks outside those countries territories…
I thought distance between China and Taiwan was 180km but that navigable channels were much narrower
China could note busiest sea lane is English Channel where French sovereign waters overlap with British being 22 miles apart yet international shipping moves and even warships access these waters
Turkey in contrast has Montreux Treaty defining rights of passage
China has reasons to be wary of Western warships after what was done to China in 19th and 20th Centuries
>Diddy/Puff Daddy
After scrolling through Tweet after Tweet on this person, I finely looked him up just now. All I knew is that he is some kind of rapper, that there was a video recently of him beating up his girlfriend. I’m not interested in that music/genre. There are three topics that seem to be dominating my feeds, Israel continued genocide/aggression/censorship, Ukraine, and Diddy.
Sean Love Combs (born Sean John Combs; November 4, 1969), also known by his stage name Diddy, formerly Puff Daddy and P. Diddy,[4][5] is an American rapper, record producer and record executive
Apparently this guy is the Jeffery Epstein of Hollywood with overlap with politicians. All I can conclude is that the rot has metastasized through many different strata of this society.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Combs
Sorry, I should have posted this under the daily Links.
Don’t worry, an interesting segue!
Wagenknecht sounds like one of neoliberalism most hated foes: Traditional left opposition.
The neoliberal system has traditionally been very effective at crushing or coopting such opposition, which ultimately left room for only wingnuttery. But now as “mainstream” parties fall into ever more political, economic, and cultural wingnuttery themselves, increasingly skittish middle class voters are beginning to look around for exits (to date blocked with aforementioned wingnuts).
But seeing as how the main stage appears to be on fire anyway, and the entrances are stuffed with street-fighters, suddenly the old left/labor fire-exit next to the mouldy storeroom is looking like a brighter spot to camp.
If you think the surveillance state has been harsh on online dissidents, wait till you see how politicians like this get treated.
“Wagenknecht sounds like one of neoliberalism most hated foes:” Yes, a bloody grownup who has no difficulty in detecting her arse from ahole in the ground.
LOL, truly excellent comment!
Thanks! Hadn’t heard that expression for a long time!!
It’s the party of the German PMC (“Müslibourgeoisie”). The Greens have succesfully catered to the material and ideological interests of its core electorate (urban, academic, West-German). It lost the trust of young voters, but other than that it’s doing just fine. Not inexplicable at all.
It is called the Asylindustrie. Psychologists, teachers, administrators, doctors, dentists, lawyers, asylum officers, property owners (the government pays good reliable rent and renovates the properties afterwards), construction people, used car dealers all are feeding at the immigration trough. Our local hospital is busy and full mostly with asylum seekers. It is the only remaining growth industry in Germany. The tend to vote Green.
Thank you, Conor.
Not entirely off topic. I would like to bring to the attention of readers to an appointment in France. Benjamin Haddad has just been appointed European affairs minister. Not only is he a Macronist, but, perhaps, less well known, associate of von der Leyen and US MIC funded think tanks, so Atlanticist.
Readers may have come across recent interviews given by Dominique de Villepin. One can compare the pair and lament how far France has fallen.
the fallout from the quackery of free trade will take decades, if we last that long.
Gerhard Schroder the bill clinton/tony blair of germany, sacrificed german labor and investment, to ride the surplus from free trade, to the detriment of just about all E.U. countries.
free traders are of course idiots, that think a system like that is sustainable.
everything was sacrificed for exports.
now the under investment, and suppressed labor rights has come to bloom. germany became overly dependent on other countries and lost its sovereignty.
germany now faces what the west faces. they are dependent on the east. and they somehow think that they now have leverage over the east.
germany will end up resorting to terrorism like the rest of the west, its all they have left. thus you sail your ships(fat open targets) thousands of miles away. in a desperate hope to have some leverage.
In terms of the question posed in your headline, we shouldn’t forget that German “sovereignty” is an idea that has always made neighbours of that country nervous, and continues to do so. A Germany firmly anchored in NATO and the EU and a loyal ally of the US was a Germany other people could live with. The Germans knew this, and up until a generation ago were the loyalest of allies and the firmest of orthodox believers. Reunification, economic strength, the decline of France and Brexit have complicated things a lot, and I’m not sure the German system has been able to adapt quickly enough. The German psyche continues to be a mystery to the rest of us.
It seems that only Russia is not affraid of a sovereign Germany and never was…
Sorry, humbly disagree.
The fundamental tropes have changed.
What you are referring to were fears – as I understand – rooting entirely in pre-1945.
The basic assumptions of how power works and has to be sold have changed.
Even if supremacist convictions still exist. I would argue they do so in neo-colonialist forms in ALL of EU. Not only Germany.
EU´s power projection has shrunk by magnitudes since 1939. So today they have to unite forces to terrorize the world one last time.
Which would pit against each other not Germany and her neighbours but Europe and her neighbours.
After all European WMDs are unlikely but with a jingoist EU Commission not out of this world.
And then what?
How will the situation look like in 15 years? Will the world more likely be trembling of a rogue Germany or rather a rogue EU equipped with nukes of its own? – after a US focusing exclusively on China has agreed on letting lose (which under very desperate circumstances they might really do. As part of sharing with EU the work to fight BRICS.)
p.s. What I dare not predict is the fate of the EU if US were forced to retreat in the very long term. When unipolarity has de facto ended and the EU been overtaken in all areas. But by then German clout will have completely gone up in smoke. And thus its potential for harm and cause for fear.
And then e.g. what is Poland going to do with its huge army of tanks? Attack Turkey (as the biggest sparring partner so to speak)?
Will Europe then fall apart in 3 or 4 mini-alliances?
In that respect your point again very much deserves consideration but with the other powers not to be dismissed.
EU did not exist in 1939 not until after 1993 in fact. There is no EU Military – US will not permit it since it would undermine US control of NATO
Germany like Italy has a major demographic problem. In addition Europe has no nuclear weapons – only U.K. and France do – and they are of doubtful value.
Germany will break up. It has never existed within the same borders for more than 40 years in its entire history. It has no internal logic. If you google Allied maps for 1945- you see different constellations for Germany envisaged by different Allied leaders
EU itself is dying. It was essential for Germany as a captive market but now German Capitalism is footloose in China and USA so does not really need it – German Banks used to own German companies in interlocking shareholdings before Schröder gave them a capital gains tax benefit and they sold out and became US style gamblers in financial markets
Germany is in NATO because of Diem Bien Phu. Germany had an army because of Korean War.
EEC was created by Treaty of Rome to enable rearmament in Germany pushed by USA – to be acceptable to France which had rejected the European Defence Force in 1954.
US had to bribe Turkey to let Germany join NATO by forcing Germany to import its male overpopulation as labour – and Germany called them Gastarbeiter.
France got to control iron and steel through EEC and when Germany reunified at US insistence and against wishes of U.K. and France – Mitterand made Germany give up D-Mark so France could control Bundesbank as ECB – Germany got to have ECB in Frankfurt as a sop
Asking myself what would change if – in a fictional scenario – AfD in 2025 were to form the government with Alice Weidel as chancellor. Something tells me not much. Leave the EU? Nope.
Unless they would be teaming up with BSW as second or third force in parliament and Wagenknecht doing what Oskar Lafontaine had been doing shortly, as minister of finance. And possibly creating enough energy to do some major economic changes on a quid-pro-quo deal basis.
But what in fact would change?
Ending support for Ukraine?
Open cooperation with Russia?
Repairing NS2?
All of that would merely be a status quo ante.
Be a bit harsher on immigration than SPD already is?
Most changes might concern fringe areas as freedom of theatres and art funding – perhaps.
So what are people hysterical about?
Law enforcement biased against true left groups?
Already is.
Racist?
Already is.
So this would only matter if this were expanded into a what-if over Wagenknecht and BSW leading the country instead.
But that´s even less likely.
I am not even sure AfD has enough good people to actually staff all necessary posts.
p.s. the only single issue where something could happen for real is to stop the planned stationing of missiles. It´s the least controversial among oppositional groups and easiest to grasp for anyone. (WORLD WAR 3, “we-all-gonna-die” kinda thing)
The Politicians who shut down Murican Bases and kick out NATO-Murican Troops being hosted there for Tours should make it happen.
A rough translation of a Bismarck quote from of one the commonplace book I kept as a student 60 years ago which seems to me to get to the essense of the problem Germany and the rest of the Collective West have created for themselves: “Don’t think that in taking advantage of Russia’s weakness, it will pay you dividends forever. Russia always comes for its money. And when it comes – don’t rely on any agreement you’ve signed. Agreements are not worth the paper they are written on. Therefore, play fair with Russia, or don’t play”.
President Putin is a great admirer of Bismarck and has read about him widely and deeply; it seems that the for the present German leadership, history began in 1945 and Bismarck and statecraft just doesn’t enter into it.
Three things I learned from my Russian students are, they don’t lie; they so what they say; and they have no respect for you if you do no observe these niceties.
Excellent overview.
On the manufacturing front, there is Volkswagen’s (VW’s) ditching of the 87-year old job guarantee and threat to close facilities in Germany.
Already smaller auto-suppliers are throwing in the towel (all in German and still have not learned to do links):
Erwin Lutz
https://www.merkur.de/wirtschaft/deutscher-autozulieferer-ist-insolvent-alle-mitarbeiter-erhalten-kuendigung-93300203.html
Recaro Automotive
https://www.chip.de/news/Traditioneller-Zulieferer-insolvent-Naechste-Pleite-in-Autoindustrie_185394808.html
WKW
https://www.merkur.de/wirtschaft/insolvent-autozulieferer-insolvenz-firma-wkw-wuppertal-vw-bmw-mercedes-zr-93313169.html
Recaro was bought by a Detroit-based private equity firm in 2020 called Raven Acquisitions. They might have just done a private equity thing and they are dumping the workers, the IG Metal contracts and factory in high cost Germany. In the old days if business slowed down companies in Germany would slow down production and cut costs and wait it out but that is not the private equity style. If Raven Acquisitions owns the patents and designs maybe they can build the seats cheaper in China or Mexico or license the name to some Chinese or Indian company. They were a specialty maker and I always liked their seats and had them in my Porsche and my Mercedes. People that wanted Recaro seats were not price sensitive. So going bankrupt does not sound like a good explanation. It sounds more like US financial engineering than not being able to make money in good seating.
Actually Recaro is alive and well. It sold off its automotive seating to Johnson Controls in 2011 and Johnson split and Adient became new owner.
Recaro licensed its name but continues to make aircraft seating and gaming chairs etc
It’s difficult for me to contain my glee (or Schadenfreude, I perhaps should say). When one auto parts manufacturer after the other goes insolvent like that, and Volkswagen AG is planning to shut down German factories for the first time since its founding in 1937, those are not good signs.
This especially since I remember Audi (part of the VW Group) sort of leading the anti-Russian charge, complete with Ukrainian flags in its advertising. Now Volkswagen AG are leading the pack into oblivion. Good riddance, and the same to the rest of German industry.
150 years as an industrial power are ending and they will *never* come back. Germany’s demographic cliff, its lack of sufficient natural resources of its own (shared with the rest of Europe, to which I don’t count Russia), and the way it has burned all bridges not just to Russia but to the entire global South with its top-of-its-lungs cheerleading of the Zionist genocide will prevent that. As someone above said, it’s a distinct possibility that Germany itself will be ripped to shreds, basically returning to its natural state.
Is it just me who thinks that ‘Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW)’ was created expressly to split the anti-establishment/anti-atlanticist vote? It will be interesting if BSW and AfD are able to work together to, for example, try and end the war in Ukraine.
As far as I can tell, it’s just you. Die Linke was not anti-Atlanticist in any real way.
Sahra Wagenknecht has, single-handedly and within the space of less than a year, destroyed the Left Party (die Linke), which had become completely neoliberal and Atlanticist. They are being sent out of state parliaments one after the other and will disappear (as in, fall short of the 5% limit) on the federal level in the elections next year. This alone makes it unlikely, in my view at least, that she’s any kind of controlled opposition.
And it sure was a pretty stupid decision of the Left Party to throw Wagenknecht out of the party. They basically signed their own death warrant doing that.
Excellent overview and analysis, Conor! Thank you for keeping us updated about the situation in Germany.
Hoping BSW will continue to do well.