Yves here. Richard Murphy has posted what in theory is light fare, a piece on fall/winter women’s fashion as an economic indicator. He starts with the most watched sighting, skirt lengths. He finds that H&M, which makes much-decried “fast fashion” (low price, cheaply made items emulating hot looks where the buyer, who is often middle or upper income, can toss it after the current season when it is no longer worn by the in crowd) is showing short skirts, which he sees as bullish. However, Murphy can’t help noticing that the colors are drab to the point of being dreary. That sure looks depressed. So is this a mixed outlook?
As an aside, yours truly is bugged by the pervasiveness of cars in dull colors. When I was a kid, many cars, and not just the almost-endemic Volkswagen beetles, were in peppy colors: sunny yellows, zippy reds, happy bright greens, and a whole range of blues, from sweet robin’s egg to a sober navy. The narrowing of the palette is presumably not manufacturer driven; you’d think they’d sell bright colored cars if there was a market for them (and wouldn’t more distinct colors be safer? Cars would stand out more from each other while driving and might make for easier IDs upon occasion).. This looks like deeply internalized conformity.
One of Murphy’s readers argued that H&M buyers skewed quite young, and so H&M might include some short skirts and frocks regardless to suit their desire to show some skin for the purpose of attracting male attention. He recommended sanity-checking by looking at the new offerings from an upscale designer, Victoria Beckham. I picked out some items that were, um, striking:
I like a turtleneck as much as the next person, and also have reasonable tolerance for edgy runway designs. But I found these styles creepy. Necklines so high they cover the jaw is on the way to being a burqa. And if you look at the last photo, the short shearling jacket, you can see it was posed so that no hand or arm skin was visible. The potential buyer can see both shearling cuffs but no flesh.
These outfits seem monastic, as if buyers are being prepared for a more ascetic life.
Admittedly this is only one designer. Do readers have confirming or conflicting sightings?
By Richard Murphy, part-time Professor of Accounting Practice at Sheffield University Management School, director of the Corporate Accountability Network, member of Finance for the Future LLP, and director of Tax Research LLP. Originally published at Fund the Future
I think it fair to say that this blog does offer a slightly male-biased view of the world. That is unsurprising: I am male, and this blog is about how I see things.
That said, I do take an interest in fashion. I actually subscribe to the online version of Vogue (it’s £12 a year). I don’t do so because I buy such fashion. I suspect that is pretty obvious. I have, however, for decades thought that fashion reflects the public mood. Looking at where it is going is a very strong indicator of where the economy might be following. Danny Blanchflower would call this a part of the ‘economics of walking about’. For that same reason, I observe people in the street: their collective style says a lot about how we feel.
In this context, an email arrived in this household from H&M yesterday, advertising its latest, more upmarket collection. This is a screenshot from that mail:
The message is surprising. Of the three skirts on view, two are short. That might suggest a degree of optimism not yet apparent in the economy. I have long believed that there is a marked correlation between the distance between the hems of skirts and the ground and the economic mood of people. They go higher together. And on the street, they are very long right now.
On the other hand, look at the colours. They are dark, sombre, depressing and downbeat. That’s the message I am taking from this. There really is very little optimism in the economy if colour has disappeared from the palettes of fashion chains.
This proves nothing, of course, except for one thing. These fashion houses spend a great deal of time trying to work out what colours to offer. H&M seem to be reflecting a wider view on this issue. The mood is decidedly downbeat. I have no idea where Rachel Reeves thinks growth is going to come from in that case: the signs of it happening are not out there.
While your point about the dominance of whites, blacks, greys and charcoals in auto colors is inarguable, in recent years I’ve also noticed a new wave of pukey greens, yellows, reds and oranges… and have wondered what they reveal about the zeitgeist. While “colorful,” they don’t have the bright, perky, upbeat feeling of those older shades…
As for the women’s fashion, those high, tight collars to me suggest rigidity and repression, ideal for a time of conformity, propaganda and corporate dis-infotainment; maybe next season they’ll go all the way and cover their consumer’s mouths.
Observations about car colors and culture. I read years ago that in Japan white is the dominant color for cars because of Japanese ideas of cleanliness. White is important in Shinto, and Shinto and its ideas still matter to Japanese.
In the Undisclosed Region, some smaller cars are getting more playful with color. I just saw two Microlino — little, one-door cars — one navy blue, one crimson. There is also a FIAT Topolino, the new edition, tooling around my neighborhood — the car is sea-foam green and attracts bystanders.
As to exposure of the neck and “optimism”: Yves Smith is on the mark. Years ago, in Sexual Personae, Camille Paglia made some brilliant remarks about exposing the neck and how much it indicates sexuality in Western culture. This goes for men, too. So the high neck is indeed monastic. Touching the chin indicates to me that the wearer is being forced not to speak.
At the same time, I see the big glasses: When big glasses are in vogue, things can get revolutionary. I am thinking of some shots of Janis Joplin in glasses.
In the West, black is always a color of some ambiguity. Tommaso Campanella called it “traitorous,” after the Renaissance, when Italians had worn bright colors. The baroque was black.
However, I am not sure that the grays and blacks shown are “downbeat,” to use Murphy’s word. Gray and black can be quite stylish and even sexy. Wearing black doesn’t automatically turn one into a Dominican.
The preference for white cars is not just a Japanese trend, but a global one. In fact, Europeans are the outliers when it comes to car color preference.
I don’t know DJG – those dressed in austere colors with high necklines can still get their groove on. ;)
Having worked in the financial district in Boston for many years, I can tell you that palette is 100% standard at least in that metro area…black grey grey grey and more black
To be fair, everyone in Boston is horribly depressed so I suppose this makes sense
I fondly remember the psychotic Jacob’s Ladder aura of the Red Line as I rode it in the wee hours of the night returning from The Institute.
Boston is cursed.
According to this Japanese article, merits of a white car are that it’s easily visible on the road, suitable for any age or gender, hides minor scratches well, and therefore has a higher resale value. These days black cars are also very popular in Japan, also due to resale value.
In the US, a close relative recently purchased a new Subaru in an eye-popping highly reflective blue, and got a lot of comments about how this would attract unwanted attention from the wrong kind of people.
My eye-popping reflective blue Subaru was stolen and completely stripped by car thieves. They meticulously and curiously stripped all interior parts. The wheels and battery were also removed, yet the blue body was untouched. By the time my car resurfaced in a towing lot, I had racked up $3000 in towing lot fees, which included extra fees for towing a car with no wheels. I suspect the towing lot is so profoundly corrupt that they encourage car thieves to steal cars just so the towing lot can rack up extortionate fees. I also suspect those meticulously removed parts magically appeared again right before my car was put up for auction. Do you know where a great place to learn how to steal car is? A towing lot.
In accordance with the other post today about climate change and genocide, I think I will deliberately not buy a new car. And I certainly won’t buy one that attracts attention. I haven’t rode a bicycle in twenty years, but I think I should start.
Lotsa white trucks parked @ an eatery in the Central Valley is usually a good sign the tucker is decent.
It warms my heart to think how much money I have not spent on clothing by working at home.
I do not think short skirts are bullish. In fact the opposite.
My clairvoyant powers suggest to me it is a coping mechanism.
The human female seeks Lacanian psycho-pleasure and to appear fully impregnable in poor economic times, in order to attract a hopefully wealthier mating partner.
As material conditions deteriorate, the human subject will increasingly retreat into commodity fetishism as a means to handle the heavy mental burden that this is all pointless and will soon come to an end.
I posit that in two decades’ time most humans – male and female – will be walking around almost entirely nude, except for tastefully small amounts of dress to enhance the erotic imagination of the viewer.
It would make sense to me that short skirts or other clothing geared towards nightlife is more popular during more prosperous times. Going out to a club or bar is expensive. Clothes, even fast fashion, are expensive. Being able to afford clothes that you only wear in a specific context is a luxury on a fixed income. Going into fall, it’s going to be colder, so if you’ve got a budget, buy for utility.
I wonder if that color pallete and that style gives the impression of utility and longevity. Grays, blacks, and browns remind me of older, men’s jackets and suits. The wool blazer and trousers look a little vintage and wool isn’t synthetic. The leather, too, evokes grandpa’s closet–clothes that have stood the test of time. Of course, all of this is probably sweatshop made and built to breakdown immediately.
It’s also unpopular among a lot of younger people to look like they have money. It’s not as obvious, but this kind of thing reminds me of the folks wearing Carhartt for fashion. Among some younger buyers, status is shifting away from the ostentatious to what they think working class styles are, but still buying the expensive, high end of “work clothes.” Pair that with all the TikTok trad-trends and it makes sense those people are leaning into more conservative clothing choices. At least they’re not selling tattered t-shirts and jeans for $300 each. I guess people have realized they don’t want to look that poor.
Living in a bigger city, narratives around crime also encourage ascetic dress. We’re in a housing crisis and when people see more people sleeping on the street and on the train and that stokes their fear that they’re going to be targets for crime if they look too nice. Those folks get nervous when they have to walk through a tent city on their way to work.