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Hurricane Helene Hits Hard in North Carolina, a Swing State

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Patient readers, I apologize for being slow. I just bit off more than I could chew! Still, I hope the conclusion has merit. –lambert

Hurricane Helene was a brutal force. Taking loss of power as a proxy for damage, this map from PowerOutage.us shows how bad it was:

Red is bad. That’s a lot of red. In this post, I’m going to examine the Helene’s effects on Western North Carolina (WNC) only, and not other states in Helene’s path, partly because my academic family had a connection with Duke, and so I have childhood memories of the state, but mostly because the relationship between topography, demography, voting patterns, and the impact of Helene presents attractive possibilities for political analysis of a critical swing state that I did not see elsewhere (analysis that may apply to other Appalachian states, but I don’t have time to do that research). Damage to two institutions of national, even global significance — the National Centers for Environmental Information, and the quartz mines of Spruce Hill — is described in an Appendix.

North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (D) described Helene’s impact in his letter to President requesting disaster relief:

Hurricane Helene entered the Florida panhandle as a Category 4 hurricane and moved northward impacting North Carolina with significant, damaging, and lifethreatening flash flooding across the western portions of the North Carolina mountains.

Widespread, catastrophic flash flooding is being experienced across the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Rainfall amounts through midday, Friday, September 27, 2024, have reached up to 20 inches in some locations creating power outages, major highway closures, major transportation stoppages, and the need for rescues and evacuations. Numerous landslides, with large damaging debris flows and slope failures, are occurring along the Blue Ridge Escarpment and in western North Carolina. Tornado watches are in effect for Eastern and Central North Carolina. Wind gusts reaching 35 mph are ongoing and isolated tornadoes have been reported throughout the State. Two deaths have been confirmed in North Carolina due to weather-related impacts.

Numerous river gauges have rapidly climbed above flood stage, with seven rivers (French Broad, Swannanoa, Pigeon, Broad, Catawba, South Fork Catawba, and Yadkin) at major flood stage and eighteen at moderate flood stage. Tropical Storm Helene has caused widespread damage including downed trees and flooding that blocked roadways, damaged residential structures and businesses, and caused at least 900,000 power outages and climbing. The investor-owner, municipal, and co-opt utilities have reported significant damage to the electric infrastructure in western and portions of central North Carolina and assessments are ongoing. Communication services have been degraded or are completely unavailable.

(Remember that word, “mountains.”) Helene’s effects have been discribed as “apocalyptic” “biblical devastation.” “The worst flooding in a century” has put both dams and water supplies at risk (and floodwater is unhealthy, not to say toxic). More than 400 roads are out, including I-40, the East-West artery of WNC, not that cars could gas up anyhow, with gas stations closed. Besides the power outages mentioned by Cooper, cellphones are out, too (the towers having gone down), although ham radio still functioned[1]. As of this writing, 1000 people are unaccounted for, and the death toll is rising. And if Hurricane Ian is any indiction, WNC residents will end up being defrauded on their insurance claims. Meanwhile, gutted newsrooms have made media coverage miserably inadequate.

There are many, many images of damage, on the Twitter, but I picked this one of Fulton, NC. Fulton looks like a war zone:

What struck me was that “Spring Creek,” gone mad in the storm, had ripped open the road to expose the town’s water system.

And now to those mountains.

How Topography Shaped Western North Carolina

Wikipedia (sorry) describes WNC’s topography:

[WNC]is the region of North Carolina which includes the Appalachian Mountains; it is often known geographically as the state’s Mountain Region. It contains the highest mountains in the Eastern United States, with 125 peaks rising to over 5,000 feet (1,500 meters) in elevation. Mount Mitchell at 6,684 feet (2,037 meters), is the highest peak of the Appalachian Mountains and mainland eastern North America…

Located east of the Tennessee state line and west of the Piedmont, Western North Carolina contains few major urban centers. Asheville, located in the region’s center, is the area’s largest city and most prominent commercial hub. The Foothills region of the state is loosely defined as the area along Western North Carolina’s eastern boundary; this region consists of a transitional terrain of hills between the Appalachians and Piedmont Plateau of central North Carolina.

Areas in the northwest portion of the Western North Carolina region, including Boone and Blowing Rock, commonly use the nickname ‘The High Country’. The term Land of the Sky (or Land-of-Sky) is a common nickname for the Asheville area. The term is derived from the title of the novel, Land of the Sky (1876), written by Mrs. Frances Tiernan, under the pseudonym Christian Reid. She often refers in this book to the Great Smoky Mountains and Blue Ridge Mountains, the two main ranges in Western North Carolina. The Asheville area regional government body, the Land-of-Sky Regional Council, uses this nickname.

WNC’s mountainous topography had several consequences.

First, historically, WNC’s terrain was not suitable for rice, tobacco, cotton, or plantations generally. This did not mean that slavery did not exist in WNC; but there were fewer slaves — i.e., Blacks — than in areas more suitable for the Slave Power’s version of Big Ag. From Asheville Watchdog:

By 1860, about 15 percent of the population of Western North Carolina was enslaved. Only a small percentage of the White settlers… owned slaves — about 2 percent of households, according to Katherine Calhoun Cutshall, collections manager, North Carolina Room, Pack Memorial Library — and of those, most owned one or two. The majority were owned by a handful of elite families, whose names are commemorated throughout the region.

They used their wealth and influence to help build Asheville and surrounding communities, supporting government, schools, healthcare, infrastructure, parks and other civic improvements, for which they were honored. But the wealth that lifted them to prominence was derived in large part by the enslavement and exploitation of Black people, entwining their many good deeds with the evil of racism [Or rather, the evil of property in persons].

2% of white households owning slaves contrasts to 45.8% in South Carolina; and 15% of the population contrasts to South Carolina’s 50%+, or Georgia’s 44%[2].

Second, WNC’s terrain makes for many small towns and a scattered population. From Renee Robinson on Twitter:

I need people to understand something with the news coverage regarding effects of hurricane Helene. There is a lot more to the NC Mountains than Asheville.

Boone, Blowing Rock, Banner Elk, Vilas, Sugar Grove, Elk Park, West Jefferson, Black Mountain, Swannanoa, Sylva, Cullowhee, Brevard, Bryson City, Hendersonville, Cherokee, Waynesville, Burnsville, Candler, Canton, Spruce Pine, Chimney Rock, Lake Lure, Linville, Marshall, Maggie Valley, Newland, Grandfather, Beech Mountain, Sugar Mountain, Old Fort, Morganton, Marion are just a few of the cities and towns that have been flooded and/or destroyed. The counties of Yancey, Mitchell, Avery, Ashe, Watauga, Transylvania, Burke, Caldwell, Alleghany, Madison, Buncombe[3], McDowell, Rutherford, Polk, Henderson, Wilkes, Haywood, Jackson, Macon, Clay, Cherokee, and Swain are devastated and in need of the same help, some even more.

Other counties that fall under various definitions of Western North Carolina include: Alexander County, Catawba County, Cleveland County, Surry County and Yadkin County. When these counties are added, they form a total regional area of roughly 11,750 square miles (30,400 km2). This makes the region roughly the size of Massachusetts. Western North Carolina holds 11% of our state’s population.

There are millions of people up there with no electricity, no communication, no water, and no way to get out or let rescue teams even know where they are. I am not taking anything away from Asheville and the utter destruction there or any other areas in NC that have damage. The level of destruction is unimaginable. But it’s not one or two cities or towns that are in need of help.

Matt’s Weather Rapport describes the isolation of the people across WNC:

I’m not just talking about a few backwoods hollows in the mountains. It’s virtually the whole region. The crisis is worsening, and I fear the death toll up there will skyrocket.

Much like Vermont, there’s tons of narrow, winding mountain roads in the region leading to an unknown number of houses, trailers, camps, resorts and local tourist attractions. The flooding and mudslides up there were cataclysmic. Since there’s no communications and electricity working, and nobody can get up there, nobody knows how many people have passed away, or are dying while they wait.

Small towns outside of Asheville like Castle Rock, Old Fort, Roan Mountain and Swannanoa have been almost completely destroyed. Accessing them will be harder than getting into Asheville.

Third, WNC’s elevation led people to believe it was safe, a “climate haven”:

That doesn’t affect election 2024, but it is one of life’s little ironies, eh? Now let’s turn to truly important, contemporary affairs: Politics.

Western North Carolina, Hurricane Helene, and Election 2024

As readers know, North Carolina is a swing state, one of the states where a few thousand votes either way could determine the outcome of a Presidential election. It’s currently tied (within the margin of error). From Project FiveThirtyEight, though other pollsters agree:

Here is Joe Biden, juxtaposed by a Republican source: At the top, he’s dispensing largesse to Ukraine; at the bottom, he’s answering a question about disaster relief:

The optics in the bottom panel are horrid: Biden, questioned on his relief efforts for devastated states, looks angry and hostile, and snaps that he’s sent “a significant amount even though they didn’t ask for it yet.” With two swing states in Helene’s path — George and North Carolina — reeling from an apocalyptic event in an election year, and he can’t work up any other emotion than tight-lipped annoyance? Oh well. That said, the real issue here is whether, in fact, the generally molasses-brained Biden Administration delayed relief, or not.

The Republican narrative is that “our goverment” delayed[4]:

But let’s go to the tape. There are two ways that a disaster is declared, says FEMA. The first is an Emergency Declaration, declared by the President, with a top limit of $15 million (this is the “significant amount” Biden sent more or less immediately). The second is a Presidential Disaster Declaration, which triggers FEMA, but which a state must request. Helene roared through on September 26-27; Governor Cooper made his request on September 27; President Biden granted it on September 28. Now, there may be plenty of reasons to quarrel with FEMA’s performance in the coming days, but as far as setting the wheels of government in motion, I don’t see a difficulty with the Biden Administration. (Sadly, the Republican spokesman on this issue is gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, who has his own issues.)

Campaign trivialities aside, how will Helene’s devastation affect voters on 36 days from now? Here is where the topography and demographics of WNC come into into play. Recall first that owing to its topography WNC is more white (that is, less Black) than the rest of North Carolina. Second, WNC is less educated, and more poor, than the North Carolina average. In other words, WNC is Trump Country (modulo the Trump voters who are golfers, crypto bros, financial barons, and so forth). A map from the 2020 Presidential election shows this clearly:

Asheville (population 94,589), with its eleven area colleges, vibrant arts scene, and Biltmore estate (now underwater) is the quintessential Blue City in a sea of Red.

Now let’s ask ourselves which voters in WNC are most likely to be able to make it to the polls and cast their votes, 36 days from now, based on their respective terrains. For the city of Ashville: I would imagine that one way or another, I-40 will be opened as soon as possible. Voting locations in schools and churches are concentrated, and one can be easily substituted for another. Some voting locations may even be within walking distance. Power and communications will also be opened — AFAIK, Internet service at the Asheville town library functioned throughout — not least so that rescuers can fan out from Asheville to more remote locations. For the mountains of Trump Country: Miles of winding roads will remain closed. Voting locations are far apart, and thinly scattered, so that substitution is not easy. Many voting locations can only be reached by car. Power and communications will be restored more slowly. The net result will be that most voters in Blue Asheville will be empowered relative to many voters in Trump Country (no matter their desires. It doesn’t matter if you’d crawl over broken glass vote for Trump if “you can’t get there from here”).

Conclusion

Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by a margin of 2,758,775 – 2,684,292 = 74,483. Even if Hurricane Helene takes away only (say) 10% of those votes from Trump Country, that could be enough to swing the state to Kamala, if she does a little better in other parts of the state. Continued volatilitiy!

P.S. North Carolina readers, please correct me. I really enjoyed reading up on the state!

NOTES

[1] From QRPer:

I’ve heard it all my life: when all else fails, ham radio still works. And let me tell you, it’s true.

Throughout the storm, our normally quiet repeater systems were buzzing with activity. The traffic became very organized, with hourly nets helping pass messages to family and friends, sharing detailed on-the-ground reports, and identifying areas where help was needed. Even though our emergency services are overwhelmed, we’re able to connect with them via amateur radio networks like ARES.

Right now, being a ham feels like a superpower. For many people, it’s the only form of communication that still works.

[2] The mountainous terrain also permitted a degree of social experimention. From WNC Magazine, “The Happy Land“:

It began, the stories say, with a search party of sorts: a caravan of emancipated African Americans traveling up from the Deep South, looking for a place where they could embrace freedom, safety, and self-sufficiency—a haven for putting down roots and building a new life. They found it in the southern reaches of Henderson County, where they established the Happy Land, or perhaps the Kingdom of the Happy Land—accounts differ on the precise name. For decades following the Civil War, a singular communal experiment existed, and it became the stuff of legend.

Chronicles of the Happy Land have proved as divergent as the paths that brought those freed slaves to their destination. Little of their venture was written down at the time, but stories added to the record decades later have helped paint a picture of how the kingdom’s residents came to their unique way of living, how they prospered, and how their saga was ultimately cast to the winds of history.

In Western North Carolina’s higher elevations—’mountains that stretched for miles without habitation, where newly freed slaves might find a small piece of land to call home.

[3] The term “Buncombe” did indeed originate from Buncombe County.

[4] I don’t think the Maui analogy is a good one. The topography and the scale were completely different; and the failures were local, not Federal.

APPENDIX National Institutions Affected

First, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. From Axios:

Hurricane Helene’s severe flooding knocked offline the top tracker of U.S. and global climate data, including of extreme weather.

The National Centers for Environmental Information also maintains and updates NOAA’s list of billion-dollar extreme weather and climate events.

According to NOAA, which runs NCEI, the building currently has electricity but no running water, and won’t be fully occupied until services are restored.

In a statement to Axios, NOAA also said the center’s network connection is down, an outage expected to last days.

Second, the quartz mines in Spruce Pine, NC. From the Verge:

[Helene’s] devastation also reached the small town of Spruce Pine, which is home to the purest quartz on Earth.

Spruce Pine’s high-quality quartz is an essential ingredient in the chipmaking process, as it’s the only naturally occurring source of the ultrapure mineral. The quartz mined from this area is used as a crucible to melt polysilicon, which is then used to produce silicon wafers — the base of a semiconductor.

Even though it’s possible to produce pure silicon from the quartz found in abundance elsewhere in the world, it takes a considerable amount of time and resources to do so, according to a 2018 report from Wired. Hurricane Helene dumped more than two feet of rain on Spruce Pine, with several reports on X showing extreme damage and flooding that has made roadways inaccessible, while many people in the area are without power.

But with communication in the region still extremely difficult, it’s been hard to determine whether the two mining companies that operate in the town — Sibelco and The Quartz Corp — are affected….

As pointed out by Wired, a 2008 Spruce Pine fire ‘all but shut off the supply of high-purity quartz to the world market, sending shivers through the industry.’ If the two mines sustained damage this time around, the impact could be even greater, given the world’s increased reliance on chips to make phones, processors, solar panels, and other technology.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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30 comments

  2. albrt

    The complaints I am hearing are that there are no military assets being deployed to help. Ft. Bragg is very close by and they have a lot of helicopters. Seems like helicopters would be pretty useful.

    Reply ↓
    1. Belle

      Getting military support may require more than just a presidential declaration of disaster, thanks to the Posse Comitatus Act. (I understand the abuse of power potential, but noncombat, non-law enforcement support should be a no-brainer.) National Guard from NC is being used, plus a unit from CT is in the area.
      Were I president, I would consider using it, but, were I president, I would have gotten the Civil Reserve Air Fleet to help pick up people from Afghanistan, something neither Trump nor Biden appears to have considered.

      Reply ↓
      1. NotTimothyGeithner

        This is a how many divisions does the pope have issue. Along as they aren’t policing, who gives a hoot?

        The troops went into San Francisco after the 1908 earthquake. Teddy want impeached.

        My guess is they are short materials n service to Biden’s genocide and would embarrass themselves

        Reply ↓
      1. lambert strether

        National Guard helicopters, not Fort Bragg, interestimg. I assume the legalities are different. Or maybe the Israelis are gonna need the Fort Bragg helicopters, who knows…

        Reply ↓
    3. Greg Taylor

      Ft. Bragg (renamed Ft. Liberty) isn’t that close, over 200 miles by helicopter. About the same distance to the North Charleston Air Base in SC.

      Reply ↓
  3. marku52

    My wife was due to send a bio sample for lab testing to Genova. Didn’t know something so asked their website. Ooops, off line. Why?

    Genova is in Asheville, NC. Google Earth shows them right next to a river. Going to be down for a while…..

    Also, thanks Lambert for the xclnt update.

    Reply ↓
  5. Lena

    Thank you, Lambert. This is excellent work.

    Biden’s response to the reporter’s question about aid to the area was appalling. He exhibits no compassion whatsoever. He can’t even pretend to care. What a sad excuse for a human being he is.

    Reply ↓
  6. Belle

    A number of the small communities outside of Asheville, particularly college towns like Cullowhee, had more support for Biden than Trump. Maybe not enough to swing counties, but still significant. In addition, the Cherokee may be backing Harris due to Trump’s support for the Lumbee gaining federal recognition being a threat to their casino business.

    On a broader scale, Trump has already made this into a political issue with his recent visit to Valdosta. He’s also gotten Franklin Graham to stand with him. (The Graham family is influential in parts of Western NC.)
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/30/trump-hurricane-helene-campaign-00181751
    Biden plans to visit Asheville on Wednesday.

    Reply ↓
  7. mrsyk

    Thank you Lambert. I don’t see any upside in this for Harris. This is a disaster for team blue. I’m wondering how many climate refugees were freshly minted.

    Reply ↓
    1. lambert strether

      Not if Team Red can’t get to the polls.

      But what you just said, really, is that climate has suddenly become a political issue. ‘Tis a consummation devoutly to be wished.

      Reply ↓
      1. urdsama

        I think there is a bigger picture here.

        How many undecideds may see this and either choose not to vote, or go third party?

        Reply ↓
  9. Carolinian

    There may be lots of small towns but the population of the region is overwhelmingly in Asheville?Hendersonville and outlying and believe me they have lots of cars and ways of getting to the polls. For years they’ve been widening the local freeways to handle the crush.

    So I’m not sure how this affects the tactical level. On the strategic level it merely reinforces the notion of a situation out of control both domestically and overseas. The hard core Dems and Trump haters are going to vote Harris no matter what/. For independents though she doesn’t strike me as having much to offer if anything. We heard the NC is going purple claim last time and it didn’t. Arguably Harris is a weaker Trump alternative in 2024 than Biden was in 2020.

    Reply ↓
  12. The Rev Kev

    What a miserable, dissected corpse Biden is. Doesn’t he even realize that he could use his Presidential powers to give aid and relief to millions of registered voters a few weeks out from a Presidential election? Does he think that it was only Trump country but was hit by that hurricane and can’t be bothered about them? Katrina derailed the Bush regime because Bush couldn’t be bothered about the people slammed by that hurricane and it may very well be a repeat with Helene and Biden’s Democrats.

    Reply ↓
  13. griffen

    Thank you for posting, on what is or had been a delightful place to visit and to hike, since I relocated into nearby Spartanburg, SC ( close enough to it but just a wee miles outside of that city proper ). I even have distant relations near the Weaverville area ( I think ) & frequently as a young kid my family visited Greeneville, TN (which meant drive thru Asheville or drive thru Boone).

    Now to put something out there for those in the broader Spartanburg county and still in need of power or basic utilities. Starting earlier today I got notice the National Guard was going to hand out goodies for those in need of it ( I think water and maybe MRE ).

    South Carolina is different yes but the impact of this storm may linger to end of the week. I don’t have a great big circle of those I’m consistently texting or asking how it goes..But it seems I got the good straw with power and water and so forth. Downed trees are abundant and will be the ongoing nuisance for the line workers and crews.

    I’m also wanting to avoid chirping about ” how good ” it’s supposedly going in this part of SC. It’s better by comparison but I put the emphasis to the phrase ” it’s a long uphill climb to label this a success “. My two cents only.

    Reply ↓
    1. Belle

      Here in Greenville, some areas are with power, some, like me, are without. (And I’m in a moderate suburb neighborhood, with a rich golf course nearby.) Old trees may be a factor in how the power was lost, in addition to the substation damage.
      My job is closed as well. There is power along the main road in both directions from them within a mile, but not for them. (A nearby bank and restaurant have generators. The nearby mall is home to a base camp for utility workers from all over. Also at the mall is a traveling collection of pop-up shops from a high-end mall in Miami- but they aren’t open.)
      My volunteer organization has not been called up, at least not in my area. Our home base has no power. Saw a trailer for the SBC disaster relief group…and it was sitting behind a church gym that was being used for a skate park, and it didn’t look to be used. Duke energy is estimating power to return by Friday night for us.
      Things are rough in some ways, but we are in better shape than NC.
      Our local NWS office just cancelled the event they planned for Saturday. They can use the rest after all their work warning Western NC and SC.

      Reply ↓
    1. CA

      “The Nolichucky river crested the Nolichucky dam…”

      This brings up what strikes me as a useful question; how important is precision in weather forecasting? There is now a forecasting system that is very, very fast, extends accurately as long as 7 days and covers weather in sections about 3 kilometers or 1.864 miles: “Pangu”…

      https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06185-3

      July 5, 2023

      Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks
      By Kaifeng Bi, Lingxi Xie, Hengheng Zhang, Xin Chen, Xiaotao Gu & Qi Tian

      Reply ↓
    2. CA

      https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3230612/why-european-weather-agency-using-chinas-artificial-intelligence-model

      August 13, 2023

      Why a European weather agency is using China’s artificial intelligence model

      The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is working with Chinese tech giant Huawei to launch an AI-based forecasting system
      AI models have been described as the ‘quiet revolution’ of weather forecasting, which could be a game-changer for the industry

      By Zhang Tongin

      Beijing — An intergovernmental organisation in Europe is working closely with a Chinese tech giant to apply artificial intelligence (AI) to weather forecasting.

      The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts launched a Chinese AI model capable of predicting global weather on its website late last month.

      The model, Pangu-Weather, was developed by Huawei Technologies…

      Reply ↓
    1. Belle

      A local company is majorly involved in providing refurbished, replacement transformers around the world. They are making a lot of money.
      Unfortunately, they are also run by right-wing religious types, with Bible verses on banners in their ads, and theological debates on their internal discussion network. (One of their major locations is Moscow, Idaho, known for a religious sect that makes Donald Trump look like a feminist.)
      One of the founders was forced out of the company, and is suing them, alleging that they over reported his income from the company, this sticking him with a huge state and federal tax bill.

      Reply ↓

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