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Links 9/12/2024

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‘Miracle’ Japan penguin found two weeks after escape Channel News Asia

Self-medicating gorillas may hold new drugs clues BBC

Soft Landing? New Left Review

Top US Fed official broke central bank’s trading rules, watchdog says FT

Climate

‘Never believed it would happen’: Residents flee from explosive Bridge fire LA Times. Commentary:

As Fires Burn And More Wildfire Regions Talk Job Cuts, Congress Argues Over 2025 Budget The Hotshot Wake Up

Brazil grapples with fire pandemic as climate woes intensify BNE Intellinews

Defund Indonesia’s Deadly Peat Fires The Diplomat

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More than 375,000 without power in Louisiana as Hurricane Francine moves through Times-Picayune

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Hard to make and inefficient to use, hydrogen won’t save the climate BNE Intellinews

The Next President Will Be a Climate-Disaster President The Atlantic

Everyone’s heads are in the sand Heated

Water

Innovative air-to-water tech using liquid desiccant makes affordable, renewable water Monga Bay

Wrecked rain gauges. Whistleblowers. Million-dollar payouts and manhunts. Then a Colorado crop fraud got really crazy. Colorado Sun

Quantifying Winters Rights (PDF) 48 William & Mary Environmental Law and Policy Review 659 (2024)

Syndemics

Sequencing-Based Detection of Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus in Wastewater in Ten Cities NEJM

How did a Missouri resident catch bird flu spreading in livestock? What we know so far Kansas City Star. Meanwhile:

>

Novavax or Nothing? For Some, It’s Their COVID Vaccine Choice WebMD

Mask bans are dumb, dangerous Editorial Board, Star-Ledger

China?

Why are young Chinese lying flat? They need hope and opportunities South China Morning Post

How China has ‘throttled’ its private sector FT

China’s firms seek to avoid pitfalls in search of key EV metal in Latin America: analysts South China Morning Post

Myanmar

Making Sense of the Mess in Myanmar’s Shan State The Irrawaddy

India

One-Way Traffic London Review of Books

Africa

Instability in Somalia Endangers the Entire Horn of Africa Black Agenda Report

Syraqistan

ICC prosecutor seeks ‘urgent’ arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders FT

Inside the Movement to Settle Southern Lebanon Jewish Currents

Israeli Historian: This Is Exactly What Genocide Looks Like Jacobin. From July, still germane.

Dear Old Blighty

The NHS must ‘reform or die’, says Sir Keir Starmer – as he promises the biggest overhaul of the health service since it was born eight decades ago after surgeon’s damning new report Daily Mail

New Not-So-Cold War

France, Germany and UK condemn export of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia – as it happened Guardian. Commentary:

UK will allow Ukraine to strike Russia with Storm Shadow missiles Ukrainske Pravda

* * *

Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion Is a Two-Edged Sword The American Conservative

Russia claims it prevented Ukrainian attempt to take control of Black Sea drilling rig Anadolu Agency

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Individuals Over Institutions: Ukraine’s Government Reshuffle Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Nuland fuels theory that Western powers killed 2022 peace deal Responsible Statecraft

2024

Debate in nuclear-armed former colony fails to reassure global community Al Jazeera. More:

The Great Debate: Trump Talked Substance But Kamala Won on Tone and Looks Pluralis

Trump’s message of American decline resonates with pivotal voters BBC

RFK Jr. suggests independent support for Trump will drop in wake of debate The Hill

California considers first-in-the-nation phone discounts for undocumented immigrants Politico

Haitian immigrants fleeing unrest and facing exploitation find ‘Alabama is the best place to live’ AL.com

Our Famously Free Press

My Youtube Channel Deleted for Hate Speech Larry Johnson

9/11

At Least Two Saudi Officials May Have Deliberately Assisted 9/11 Hijackers, New Evidence Suggests ProPublica

The War on Terror Was Not a Morality Tale War on the Rocks

The World Trade Center Attack September 11, 2001 Susan Sontag. Still germane.

Police State Watch

The NYPD Is Tossing Out Hundreds of Misconduct Cases — Including Stop-and-Frisks — Without Even Looking at Them ProPublica

Digital Watch

As major web browser makers snuggle up to AI, these skeptical holdouts remain The Register

Groves of Academe

In the spirit of libearal inquiry:

Supply Chain

What keeps shipowners up at night? Splash 247

Imperial Collapse Watch

Why America Should Drop Its Obsession With Being No. 1 Foreign Policy

Class Warfare

US child poverty nearly tripled between 2021 and 2023 Polygraph. Handy chart:

Critical labor contract vote for Boeing, IAM 751 today Leeham News and Analysis

Strike Concerns at U.S. Ports Looms Large Over Shipping gCaptain

Can a National Strike Save a Closed Plant? A Town Depends On It. Workday Magazine

Worker Solidarity Is the Best Strategy to Defeat Rising Fascism Labor Notes

The Aral Sea Volcano Café

Antidote du jour (Charles J Sharp):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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42 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    “Is Iran supplying ballistic missiles to Russia for the Ukraine war?”

    Does it even matter? Doesn’t Iran have a sovereign right to export arms to whom it chooses? Right now the entire Collective West have just about emptied out their armouries to ship them to the Ukraine. That is the thirty-odd NATO nations plus another several nations like Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc. The idea behind the outrage exhibited by some is that one group of nations is allowed to ship any and all weapons that they want to a conflict zone but if a few others nations do so for the other side, then they must be punished or something though not sure why. Must be written in that International Rules-based Order that we keep on hearing about.

    Reply ↓
    1. MRB

      The oddity about this is that the missiles supposedly being supplied are short-range missiles which Russia has an enormous superfluity of, and which it scarcely needs since glider-bombs are performing the duties of such missiles with no readily-tracked rocket trails and at far less expense. The other oddity is that in response to alleged supplies of unnecessary short-range missiles, the US is proposing to supply long-range missiles which obviously are in a completely different category.

      In addition, the “new” sanctions imposed on Russia and Iran are essentially empty and will do no real harm to either country.

      It does look as if the US government needed to come up with something to attract headlines and outsourced the propaganda to the B Team.

      Reply ↓
  3. vidimi

    ICC prosecutor seeks ‘urgent’ arrest warrants for Nazi and Jewish leaders.

    There is no saving international law. Something new must be birthed after the perpetrators have been punished. Only problem is that too many are guilty.

    Reply ↓
    1. ChrisFromGA

      Israeli government officials are now using the zombie, dead cat ceasefire talks as a kind of interference ploy to deflect the ICC:

      One said the new push focused on the destabilising impact that Israel argues the warrants would have on flailing talks brokered by the US, Egypt and Qatar to secure a ceasefire, a swap of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and an eventual end to hostilities between Hamas and Israel.

      Yet another humiliation of Blinken. Obviously Bibi is using him and all the negotiators as tools. Bibi could obviously care less about those talks and is actively undermining, delaying, and stalling for time. He knows once there is a ceasefire, his government falls apart.

      You have to almost admire his cunning and Machiavellian ways. Blinken looks like a 3 year old trying to play chess with Gary Kasper.

      Reply ↓
      1. Wukchumni

        Blinken kinda looks and acts as if he was Chamberlain’s ne-er-do-well doppelgänger, that is if Neville knew a few chords.

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          1. The Rev Kev

            Makes you wonder if Operation Sea Lion was a success and Germany had taken over the UK, whether it would have been easy for them to co-opt the Royal family to still be the titular heads. Certainly Edward VIII was in contact with the Nazis with this idea in mind which was why they had to ship him to the Bahamas. And you do not want to know how many Nazis were in Prince Phillip’s family

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        2. ChrisFromGA

          Blinken needs to learn to play “The Dead Cat Boogie.” I hear the chords are easy. Donald can join in on the harmonica.

          Reply ↓
  4. Zagonostra

    >Nuland fuels theory that Western powers killed 2022 peace deal – Responsible Statecraft

    The full story of that short-lived diplomatic interlude is unlikely to be unraveled until after the war, in no small part due to the obvious political sensitivities at play. But there is now what appears to be, even in the most conservative estimation, a large body of circumstantial evidence that Western actors, quite possibly hailing from the UK and other countries which were designated as “guarantors” of Ukraine’s security under the Istanbul draft treaty, expressed reservations about the Istanbul format.

    The extent to which these Western reservations were decisive insofar as they constituted a hard veto over the peace talks is a trickier question. One can reasonably surmise that Ukraine would have found it difficult to ink a deal that did not command at least tacit support from the Western countries on which it overwhelmingly relies, but it is no less true that the talks were fraught and, though there were positive signs of a slow convergence between the Moscow and Kyiv on key issues, the two sides were a considerable ways off from fully harmonizing their positions when the deal was terminated.

    I’m surprised that “conspiracy” was not in the title, just “theory.” This somewhat reminds me of the attempts to obfuscate the details and conclusions that one can draw from the Nord Stream pipeline terrorist attack. There are “obvious political sensitivities at play,” oh my, please elucidate. There is a “large body of circumstantial evidence?” What is “circumstantial about it? There are first hand accounts of it, and I believe Putin was even showing the document detailing the Istanbul agreement agreement. Oh yes of course, there is that “trickier question” we have to be careful with, the one that clearly identifies who is running the show, we don’t want to pierce the illusion that Ukraine is able to come to decisions autonomously. And, what is the proof the author has that “the two sides were a considerable ways off for fully harmonizing” the deal. The Istanbul was a done deal until the Hegemon nixed it.

    I don’t know anything about the source of this article, Responsible Statecraft, but the casuistry is astoundingly irresponsible.

    Reply ↓
    1. MFB

      It’s named after John Quincy Adams and claims to be an Eisenhower-style organisation devoted to trying to promote diplomatic initiatives rather than military initiatives in the US government.

      Probably at the extreme non-neoconservative edge of the US right-wing policy establishment.

      Reply ↓
    2. Ignacio

      The more important problem this created, and the true relevance of the “theory” is that any negotiation now is nearly impossible. These actions implicated that the war would have to be conducted to its bitter end when one of the sides manages to inflict total defeat on the other.

      Reply ↓
  5. The Rev Kev

    “Inside the Movement to Settle Southern Lebanon”

    ‘Since October 7th, the drive to war has been widespread within Israeli society—especially in the country’s north, where mayors and heads of local municipalities facing Hezbollah attacks have been demanding that Israel enter Lebanon, destroy its southern region, and occupy parts of the country as a means of ensuring security.’

    So if this happens, does that mean that in a few more years that they will demand that Israel enter northern Lebanon to occupy it as a means of ensuring security? And so they still want to take parts of Syria and Iraq because their God happened to be a real estate agent who put it in their contract? I wonder if Woodie Guthrie is popular with this mob?

    ‘This land is your land, and this land is my land
    From Gaza to the West Bank
    From the Sinai sands to the Litani waters
    This land was made for you and me’

    Reply ↓
    1. ambrit

      The underlying ‘theory’ that I perceive here is that old Racialist standby, Lebensraum.
      The present day Hebrew Ultra population not only learned from the Nazis, they have become them.
      All this “movement” will accomplish in the long term is the re-demonization of Jewery as a group. “Right makes might?” This bunch is soon going to find out that “civilized” diplomacy as a replacement for plain old extortion exists for very good reasons. They are not the biggest power players in the world. If the Middle East goes up in an atomic pyre, the rest of the world will carry on somehow.
      My continued exhortations to “stay safe” are taking on some of the characteristics of farce lately.
      Stay as safe as you can.

      Reply ↓
    2. JMH

      The conquerors dilemma: There is always another border. Perhaps Israel should look into the career of the Roman empire in this regard. Does expanding Israel into southern Lebanon presuppose that the US will support such a move, supply it with weapons and ammunition? Does it presuppose that the world will turn a blind to any “excesses” as is the case currently?
      It is wise to remember that there is no security for one if there is not security for all.

      Reply ↓
      2. Wukchumni

        Once upon a time winning a war gave you more territory and a buffer zone, not to mention all the wealth you could make off with, their women and livestock, it was a win-win.

        Now winning a war really only produces expenses for the short duration you’re there, and there are seldom buffer zones. Said countries are often riddled with debt-nothing to take there, the infrastructure needed major improvements circa 1975 that never happened, and women aren’t hep on Laissez-faire fraternizing these days. You can have the cows though, ok?

        Reply ↓
    3. gk

      More likely Jabotinsky. Here is his song for Betar (later Likud), “The Jordan has two banks. This is ours, and so is the other”. No translation, but you can get an idea from the maps, or try the refrain from the lyrics in Google.

      Reply ↓
  6. Zagonostra

    >My Youtube Channel Deleted for Hate Speech- Larry Johnson

    Well, the thought police came for me today and deleted my You Tube channel.

    I suspect that Utube is infiltrated by Deep State actors more than Twitter ever was. What is interesting is that the recent suspension of Judge Napolitano’s and Candice Owens indicates that we’ve reached the point where the platform will not allow discussion of topics that are sensitive to the “inner circle.” I remember thinking when they removed the “thumbs up/down” counter that something was afoot.

    This reminds me of the The Open Society and its Enemies has extensive endnote on the paradox of tolerance from Wiki:

    the idea that “unlimited tolerance must lead to the disappearance of tolerance. If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Open_Society_and_Its_Enemies

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      I wonder what the trigger point is for the powers-that-be to de-platform critics. Is it criticism of Israel or criticism of the Ukraine. Or is it both? These are not the actions of a confident country and we are seeing the same in the UK and the EU. Resistance is not so much futile as it will not be tolerated. Never thought that I would live to see the “Free West” turn into the old USSR and yet here we are.

      Reply ↓
      1. Jester

        Old USSR had free healthcare and education, and family values. Also, people did not believe the news, and were not fueled by hate. “Free West” is nowhere near there yet.

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      2. ChrisFromGA

        Private sector doing that which the government is barred from doing, violating the Fifth and First amendment.

        Of course, we know that it is the government really pulling the strings. Musk cleared all the rats out of X but Google is infested with them.

        Reply ↓
  7. ChrisFromGA

    UK will allow Ukraine to strike Russia with Storm Shadow missiles Ukrainske Pravda

    I just watched Dima’s latest Military Summary Channel video, and he says there is contradictory info.

    “According to information we have, Downing Street says that there is no change in our position on the use of the storm shadow missiles in Russia, but added that a few hours later the Guardian contradicted that story.”

    Who knows what the truth is, but Dima also reported that there is no meeting with Zelensky and Biden. Blinken essentially blew Zelensky off.

    Reply ↓
  8. Zagonostra

    >Worker Solidarity Is the Best Strategy to Defeat Rising Fascism Labor Notes

    MAGA is built on sentiments meant to divide us. It offers a very narrow definition of what is normal or acceptable, and blames every problem on outsiders or people who are different. But solidarity and diversity have always made the union movement strong.

    Combating Trump can’t only be done by arguing facts with people. You have to practice solidarity at the worksite, and be the example of how a good unionist thinks and acts.

    I’m no MAGA enthusiast but I think the author is incapable of nuance. MAGA doesn’t blame “every problem on outsiders” it blames them on “insiders.” It posits that the MSM is corrupt and the people in power have an agenda in allowing unregulated immigration.

    Based on painful first hand experience, where a yesterday family member shared her effusive take on how well Kamala did against Trump in the recent debate, I tried to using “facts,” specifically about the unhinged support Kamala’s support for the ongoing genocide in Israel. It got me nowhere. Jacques Ellul and others on the subject of propaganda, meticulously documented based on historical events that “arguing facts with people” rarely alters their thinking/belief.

    Reply ↓
  10. Ben Panga

    A bit of Hunter S. Thompson (from a column for ESPN a week after 9/11)

    We are At War now, according to President Bush, and I take him at his word. He also says this War might last for “a very long time.”
    Generals and military scholars will tell you that eight or 10 years is actually not such a long time in the span of human history — which is no doubt true — but history also tells us that 10 years of martial law and a war-time economy are going to feel like a Lifetime to people who are in their twenties today. The poor bastards of what will forever be known as Generation Z are doomed to be the first generation of Americans who will grow up with a lower standard of living than their parents enjoyed.
    That is extremely heavy news, and it will take a while for it to sink in. The 22 babies born in New York City while the World Trade Center burned will never know what they missed. The last half of the 20th century will seem like a wild party for rich kids, compared to what’s coming now. The party’s over, folks. The time has come for loyal Americans to Sacrifice. … Sacrifice. … Sacrifice. That is the new buzz-word in Washington. But what it means is not entirely clear.
    Winston Churchill said “The first casualty of War is always Truth.” Churchill also said “In wartime, the Truth is so precious that it should always be surrounded by a bodyguard of Lies.”
    That wisdom will not be much comfort to babies born last week. The first news they get in this world will be News subjected to Military Censorship. That is a given in wartime, along with massive campaigns of deliberately-planted “Dis-information.” That is routine behavior in Wartime — for all countries and all combatants — and it makes life difficult for people who value real news. Count on it. That is what Churchill meant when he talked about Truth being the first casualty of War.

    Reply ↓
    1. Jester

      The poor bastards of what will forever be known as Generation Z are doomed to be the first generation of Americans who will grow up with a lower standard of living than their parents enjoyed.

      I guess those born around 1929 had it better than I thought, or they don’t count because they eventually got a nice war to fix the economy.

      Reply ↓
      1. CA

        I guess those born around 1929 had it better than I thought, or they don’t count because they eventually got a nice war to fix the economy.

        [ Forgive me, but this is seriously incorrect.

        What fixed the economy in the wake of the Depression was the New Deal. New Deal programs were radically successful from the beginning. Economic growth sharply increased, productivity increased at the fastest rate in the entire century, employment steadily and sharply increased. ]

        Reply ↓
  11. Wukchumni

    As Fires Burn And More Wildfire Regions Talk Job Cuts, Congress Argues Over 2025 Budget The Hotshot Wake Up
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Imagine Navy Seals living in their cars?

    That’s how elite Hotshots are, inserted into the heat of battle as a striking force that can’t be replaced all that easily, these are the best firefighters in the land-bar none.

    Now while Congress is being niggardly in regards to paying them a living wage, the Fire Industrial Complex has no such issues and pays out like a compromised slot machine to private bulldozer operators cutting line (almost 20 miles worth in our ongoing Coffee Pot Fire now up to $43 million in cost) water tender trucks, fire camps where the firefighters eat, sleep and rest, all those fixed wing and helicopters dropping water & retardant, not to mention spotter planes keeping track of the action, its one hellova payday and to be fair-their services are needed on a strictly haphazard fashion and hardly at all if ever for about 2/3rds of the year, you make bank during fire season only.

    Large Hot Age practically guarantees we will need all the firefighting support we can get, and money is seemingly no object to large aspects of it, except the most important part.

    Samoan Firefighters Raise Spirits On Fire Lines With Song

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46_PJpVY7lU

    Reply ↓
  12. midtownwageslave

    Rosatom’ Uranium One, YLB sign contract to build lithium carbonate plant in Bolivia

    https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/105810/

    Rosatom and Bolivian state company sign agreement to build lithium carbonate plant. Previous agreements between parties regarding lithium extraction we for feasibility and research, iirc.

    Will this bring material benefits to the Bolivian peoples? And at what cost?

    More here:

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolivia-seals-14-bln-lithium-deals-with-russias-rosatom-chinas-guoan-2023-06-29/

    Reply ↓
  15. The Rev Kev

    “Russia claims it prevented Ukrainian attempt to take control of Black Sea drilling rig”

    Almost certainly true. Zelensky is about to meet US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy so orders a high-risk mission with only short term results that will enable him to announce some sort of victory. Instead a fiasco ensues and dozens of Ukrainian troops die in an attempted PR stunt. You see this again and again.

    Reply ↓
    1. sarmaT

      Those dumb enough to get on the rubber boat assault squad, without bringing a big white flag, deserve to become a fish brunch. What are they thinking? That this time it will be different?

      Reply ↓
  16. Darthbobber

    Child poverty triples since 2021.

    Note in the chart that 2021 is an artificially low baseline. 2019 was well over 12%, then temporary covid related measures began to take effect in 2020 and maxed out in 2021.

    All the temporary measures were allowed to expire, so we’re back to the relentless upward climb.

    Reply ↓
    1. ambrit

      That chart demonstrates that reducing childhood poverty is possible, and at a reasonable cost. This shows conclusively that childhood poverty is a deliberate policy of the Ruling Elites.

      Reply ↓

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