Cave Fish Adolescence Means Sprouting Taste Buds in Weird Places Scientific American
Climate
…HELENE STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST… …PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION… National Hurricane Center, NOAA. Map:
HELENE will be a MAJOR impact well inland. Georgia, the western Carolina's, Tennessee and Kentucky! This is actually a rare meteorological setup for this side of the world. This is called the "Fujiwara Effect" — notice how major hurricane Helene gets boomeranged NW and around a… pic.twitter.com/qMMKDnWG50
— Noah Bergren (@NbergWX) September 26, 2024
Storm surge:
This is what a 15 ft storm surge from Cat 4 Hurricane #Ian looked like in #FortMyers. Now, the NHC predicts #Helene could strengthen to a Cat 4 (115 kn winds before landfall), potentially bringing storm surges of:
15-20 ft: Carrabelle to Suwannee River, FL
10-15 ft: Apalachicola… pic.twitter.com/UiivD9kA9Z— Dr. Mona Hemmati (@HemmatiMona) September 25, 2024
Implications:
Hurricane Helene is going to render Florida unaffordable as insurance rates skyrocket. The state self-insures on hurricanes.
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) September 26, 2024
* * * Solar Housing Is Actually Kind of Retro! JSTOR Daily
People hugely underestimate the carbon footprints of the 1 per cent The New Scientist
Syndemics
Free COVID tests 2024: Gov website crashes, date appears Fast Company
US to donate 1 million mpox vaccine doses to halt outbreak in Africa Channel News Asia
China?
China Weighs $142 Billion Capital Injection Into Top Banks Bloomberg
China lifts markets with promise of more support for economy FT
China Gives Rare Handouts to Boost Sentiment Before Long Holiday Bloomberg
* * * Why did China test-fire an ICBM into the Pacific Ocean and what are the likely implications? Channell News Asia
China Puts All Three Carriers to Sea Simultaneously For the First Time: How Powerful is the Fleet Today? Military Watch
China’s warships gift and funding naval base in Cambodia: Could it put regional dynamics in choppy waters? Channel News Asia
Japanese Vehicle Makers Mired in Wide-Ranging Fraud Scandal Nippon.com
Myanmar
Myanmar is Not About to Become a ‘Fractured’ State The Diplomat
India
Why Millions Go Unaccounted for in India’s Invisible Slum Crisis The Diplomat
Syraqistan
Israel is repeating its Gaza assault in Lebanon. Why? Al Jazeera
Israel’s war on Lebanon: What arms does Hezbollah have? Middle East Eye
Despite Low Odds, Israel’s Escalation in Lebanon Could Kickstart Talks on Gaza and the North Haaretz
Biden: ‘All-out war’ still possible as Israel and Hezbollah fighting escalates PBS
* * * Exclusive: Iran brokering talks to send advanced Russian missiles to Yemen’s Houthis, sources say Reuters
* * * Israeli soldiers filmed throwing bodies from a West Bank roof France24
In Israel’s prisons, skin diseases are a method of punishment 972 Magazine
* * * The War That Would Not End Franklin Foer, The Atlantic
European Disunion
Deutsche Boerse, Nasdaq targetted in EU antitrust probe Reuters
A Coup in Brussels Thomas Fazi, Compact
Dear Old Blighty
£20k Starmer donation for son’s ‘study break’ lasted a month after exams ended The Sqwakbox
So, Jeremy Corbyn IS involved in setting up a new political party. But who told the Guardian? Canary
A crisis at the world’s oldest Jewish newspaper has exposed the Zionist media web and the ‘Get Corbyn’ campaign Middle East Monitor
NHS drops another billion on tech in the hope of finally going digital The Register
New Not-So-Cold War
What is Zelenskiy’s real Plan B? BNE Intellinews. Commentary:
Even Richard Haas admits: “If victory is defined [as] Ukraine … totally ridding its country of every Russian troop — I understand the argument, but the problem is it’s not achievable. No one is putting out there what is a realistic plan for victory.” pic.twitter.com/kVaNeQhe49
— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) September 25, 2024
What Does it Mean to Win the War in Ukraine? The National Interest
Ukraine Is About To Get Pledges Of $8 Billion In U.S. Weapons—Including Precision Glide Bombs Forbes
‘General Winter’ is about to unleash his wrath on Ukraine RT
* * * Collapsing Defensive Lines and Offensive Dreams in Ukraine Gordon Hahn
Ukraine Is Already Striking Deep Inside Russia New Lines Magazine
France to prepare and fully equip Ukrainian brigade Ukrainska Pravda
Tom Massie: Washington purposely blacking out Ukraine casualty data Responsible Statecraft
* * * Putin outlines new rules for Russian use of vast nuclear arsenal Al Jazeera
Putin’s Silence on Kursk Offensive Might Be a Giant Mistake RAND
2024
What the U.S. Election Means for Ukraine Alexander Vindman, Foreign Affairs
Trump says Ukraine is ‘demolished’ and dismisses its defense against Russia’s invasion AP
Why a Trump Loss is Best for Conservatives Ordinary Times
‘A perfect storm of stunning failure’: Senate probe finds huge Secret Service errors at Trump rally Politico
Lobbyists exploit massive loophole to wine and dine lawmakers, aides at fancy getaways Politico
The Supremes
Supreme Court allows Marcellus Williams to be executed SCOTUSblog
The Counter-Constitutional Movement: The Assault on America’s Defining Principles Jonathan Turley
Spook Country
Why Everything We Think We Know About Spies Is Wrong Literary Hub
Health
Chronopsychiatry British Journal of Psychiatry
Boeing
Boeing’s supply chain shudders as workers walk and production slows FT
The Final Frontier
Earth is about to get a second moon… but what will it mean for the lit world? Literary Hub
Imperial Collapse Watch
US Navy Oiler Runs Aground, Forcing Carrier Strike Group to Scramble for Fuel gCaptain. Commentary:
It’s not looking good. I’ve been told by a shipowner the Navy does not have a spare oiler to deploy and is scrambling to find a commercial oil tanker to refuel the Abraham Lincoln carrier group.
Updates over at gCaptain forum: https://t.co/nNG6uSYGJJ https://t.co/wGP2GTYyAw pic.twitter.com/ec2oN3CpSf
— John Ʌ Konrad V (@johnkonrad) September 24, 2024
Ohio judge approves $600 million settlement for residents near fiery East Palestine train derailment FOX
Class Warfare
Strike Threat Wins Boarding and Retro Pay at American Airlines Labor Notes
10 workers fired after forming union get $450K Colorado Sun
Recovering the Agricultural New Deal: Its Foundations, Legacies, and Losses Nonsite.org
Death of the Department Store London Review of Books
Antidote du jour (Cary Bass-Deschênes ):
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.
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Comments are closed.
COLD REVENGE
(melody borrowed from All Of Me by Frank Sinatra)
Amputee—just like this olive tree
Tree and me—our roots go down to
Ancient slips of land we knew when
Crops and farms filled all our view then
Tree will die—I’ll struggle on till I
Make reply doing what I’ll do
Jews broke my heart and tore my world apart
Vengeance is mine, you’ll see!
(musical interlude)
Olive trees—who loves the olive trees?
Centuries when no one could doubt you
Now we face Jewish confusion
Jews do harm—that’s no illusion
Why should I not learn to terrify?
Eye for eye—as I am allowed to
As Zion falls apart I’ll give it a head start
And I’m not the last they’ll see!
Another good job Antifa. I want to congratulate you for having respect for meter in a song parody. I think it is essential for enjoying the finished product and not really all that hard to do.
“France to prepare and fully equip Ukrainian brigade”
What sort of brigade exactly? An infantry or armoured brigade would get quickly chewed up and would be only a brief pr victory. But perhaps the French want to train up a brigade of stay-behind troops instead which would include training in sabotage, assassination, etc. Anything to keep this war going.
Knowing France, it is more likely to be a brigade de cuisine
French Army Knife
Maybe they are going to be a bunch of wolves in sheep’s clothing. It’s probably easier to send in a bunch of highly trained NATO personnel dressed in the uniform of the Ukrainian army than to train a brigade of Ukrainians. Anyone captured will however give the game away, so you can be sure that each and every one of them will be equipped with that standard issue exploding pager that caught Hezbollah by surprise.
“Oops, Georges was captured just 20 minutes ago. Let’s report it to HQ so they can blow him up, if we are lucky it will take out a bunch of enemy soldiers as well.”
And then report the soldier died in some aircraft accident in Alaska or Japan.
They are not fully equipping a brigade but the brigade. It will be tasked with defeating the Putin, and implementing the Peace Formula via the Victory Plan, in order to de-occupy Ukraine without the the.
The official French readout of the conversation doesn’t mention anything about it.
It doesn’t have to make sense. It doesn’t even have to happen. It can happen and fail big time.
Pretty much the Western countries are spending money on anything destructive and keeps them from having to spend on any social safety net. They just have to spend it anywhere else or propose enough other BS that holds up that spending. If people die, they die and there are no institutions to hold the alleged leaders accountable. At most there may be some resignation, but with a hell of a parachute and a landing ready for them somewhere else where damage can continue.
The only safety net these alleged leaders think needs protecting is asset portfolios of the well-connected.
Mikel, that’s the clearest thought I’ve heard in a long, long time. The last sentence says it all.
The trouble is, at an inflection point where the social amd physical infrastructure is collapsing and the key Western political systems are failing their people by throwing resources to support pretty useless US clients conducting an unnecessary war or a genocide of choice, the well-connected can get diconnected pretty damn quick. Ask 360.
Working Corbyn link:
https://www.thecanary.co/uk/analysis/2024/09/16/jeremy-corbyn-collective/
Correct link for “So Jeremy Corbyn IS Involved”
https://www.thecanary.co/uk/analysis/2024/09/16/jeremy-corbyn-collective/
If JC becomes a member of a new party, I’ll be in the queue for mebership.
Old man rant…rain damn rain every stinking hour of the day….for roughly next 36 to 48 hours. This storm is still very further south of this area, but the upstate portion of SC and then western NC is firmly in this path of mayhem and destruction. Damned if that area of Florida may well resemble the streets of Venice in the future.
Started getting those pesky EAS alerts yesterday evening. Thank you to Helene in advance ( \sarc )
Stay on the highest ground you can find. When Camille hit Nelson County, Virginia in 1969, it dropped so much rain that the topsoil and subsoil slid off the granite base of the hills down into the hollers, creating temporary dams that quickly created lakes that drowned holler inhabitants whose houses and barns lay close to the valley floor. Then the dams would burst, sending all of it hurtling down the hollers to turn the James and Rockfish rivers into tsunamis (remember the Rockfish from “The Waltons”?), wiping out communities in flatter country.
When we lived in the area in the late 70s, the gray gashes in the hillsides where the gray granite was exposed were still readily visible.
We’re battening down the hatches here in N GA.
Up until yesterday the ground was very dry, with no rain here since August. It will get saturated quickly though with 7-10″ potentially on the way. We’re right in the cone. Tonight/tomorrow AM look to be fun.
Stay safe where you are and make sure that you have some bug-out bags ready to go. And don’t forget documents like insurance papers. That storm looks mean.
South of Athens, Georgia here. It has rained “so little as to hardly notice it” over the last two months so the clay is compacted and as dry as a tablet along the river side of a small ridge we call home. As a result, the rain just runs right over the soil in my yard as opposed to percolating down in to the soil. It’s been raining a fairly steady “farmer’s rain” since yesterday afternoon and the water is channeling off from my gutter drains in to my back yard and down the hill in to the neighbor’s brook. We expect 5-6″ (or more) in the next 24 hours.
Personally, it is the sustained winds that scare me more than anything. We were in Atlanta in 1996 or so when Hurricane Opal came through and knocked down so many trees that the town generally had no power for several days. Thankfully we had a tree crew come through and remove the nearby pines and limbs so we should be good. The school systems – from elementary through college – have preemptively closed down on Thursday and/or Friday.
Here in the foothills of Appalachia, we’ve already had nearly a week of solid rain. The ground is saturated. We’re looking at three more inches in the next 36 hours. I expect trees to come down.
Out here in West Georgia I just tried to let the dog out. He didn’t even make it off the porch before he ran back inside. He is just not having it, and the storm proper hasn’t even showed up yet. It is nice to have the rain, though, it was getting awfully dry.
A very still but rainy middle of Middle Georgia all day up to 8:18 pm as I write this. Nothing really unusual about that. But Wunderground says up to 60mph gusts in 3-hour stretch just before dawn. Under a Hurricane Warning ~250 miles from landfall near St. Marks, Florida. Just the weather. Nothing to see here, move along.
I’m in middle Georgia and the forecast looks moderate so far. I think this is due to high church attendance in the area. 1/2 /s
Almost all of the half-and-half creamer is sold out in the local supermarkets on Saturday afternoon/evening every week around here.
We do have problems with trees killing motorists after heavy rain.
According to last night’s Cooler Tucker Carlson is supposed to have an arena appearance in your town tonight. Nature to intervene?
While AGW hasn’t had nearly the impact in this region compared to others it does seem lately that we either get no rain or heavy rain. Most of our weather comes up from the turbulent Gulf.
The only possibility of a Hurricane out west is in Utah not far from a Zion sanctuary, and they pronounce it ‘Hurry-Kin’, I think to distance themselves from windier ones back east.
Be safe out there, those in the path of a perpetual Nolan Ryan fastball in a contest that could go into extra innings and wont be called on account of rain.
“So, Jeremy Corbyn IS involved in setting up a new political party. But who told the Guardian?”
I don’t give a tinker’s toss about the Guardian, but if a new party goes ahead with JC as a member, I’m in.
Will JC have developed the necessary cojones and killer instinct to somehow overcome the power and narrative control of the Monied Interests and War Party?
Watch your back, Jeremy, and I hope you can afford trustworthy incorruptible personal security and some really good body armor and poison tasters. The Fokkers shoot to kill, at least when they use something other than the assassin types they aimed at Trump, who at least pretends to be fomenting a new party in the US.
Craig Murray had some thoughts on it, as well as a possible Worker’s Party merger.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2024/09/a-new-left-wing-party-in-the-uk/
I would love to see an actual left-wing party in the England, along with an invigorated Plaid Cymru, and a United Scottish Independence Party, omitting the corruption and foreign policy of the SNP, and the right-wing social tack of Alba.
JC just has to be a member and people will follow. And by the time Starmer’s finished and his Labour successor has managed to completely screw up the country, they might want someone with a few grey hairs and good advisors to lead the country into a period of peaceful re-growth. The obvious parallel is Churchill, Monkton and Butler.
Corbyn is 75, will probably be 80 at the time of the next election. Assuming he is still alive in 2029, he will not be a credible candidate for the premiership.
A 2nd moon. Oh God this will re-ignite the running joke question on the BBC show QI! THEY WILL DO IT!
Actually that might be fun…… can we have something new that casts doubt on the blue whale issue too? (Apologies to non Brits who don’t get this joke).
>‘A perfect storm of stunning failure’: Senate probe finds huge Secret Service errors at Trump rally Politico
…we are a long way from getting the information we need,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.),
And it will stay that way.You can (mis)file this under the “mistakes were made” folder.
In the meantime inertia increases to pin assassination attempt on Iran beautifully playing into creating justification for continuing to check off countries on the Gen. W Clark list. Can’t believe Trump is taking the bait…
Perhaps the Iran narrative is a headfake to throw off alphabet agency zealots.
I can. I can believe Trump taking many obvious baits.
I personally think the first shooter was just out for attention…but the second was backed by a nation that interfered in our elections in 2016, trained terrorists that attacked our citizens (some before the training, in California and Charlottesville, some after, in Estero, Florida), and recently aided Al-Quaida in Africa.
Republicans are going after Zelensky for his campaigning for Harris in PA. Will they go after him for this?
He is surrounded by Kushners and Adelsons. I would be surprised if he recognized it as bait at all.
re: So, Jeremy Corbyn IS involved in setting up a new political party. But who told the Guardian?
Is the insinuation here that one of those involved wanted it to be known, perhaps Corbyn himself? Or that Corbyn is under close watch by some agency which tipped off the Guardian, perhaps that said Guardian story is a warning to Corbyn to cease and desist political activities?
At this point, what has he got to lose? He has been exiled to political Siberia as the Labour party blends itself in with the Tories. He must have seen how Sahra Wagenknecht in Germany, with only the bare bones of a political party, has surged ahead in strength in Germany after being in existence only a few months as she actually is a real, dyed in the wool leftist. So how many British voters would vote for a real leftist when given the choice of an incompetent, Neoliberal Labour party and an incompetent, Neoliberal Tory party?
So incompetent that they have almost killed all the “there is no such thing as society” institutions and skated the world closer to WW III. Give the Owners what they want — pretty successfully. What kind of competence are we talking about? The Owners set the direction, and their wreckers tear down anything “good.”
He’s already proved that in the last election where he got about half the vote, vs. about a third for Labour. But he has to somehow find real leftists for all the other constituencies and get people to vote for them.
One of the benefits of Corbyn being so old (“80 at the next election”) is that he probably knows already who those real leftists are in most constituencies, and counts many of them as close acquaintances or friends. And by all accounts he’s starting the party, not looking to lead it long term (or maybe at all).
Recovering the agricultural New Deal–
Excellent piece from which I learned a lot about the complex, behind-the-scenes disagreements that underlay New Deal agricultural policies. Also, a good piece for Henry Wallace fans (I’d include myself) and Henry’s family history of activism.
One thing that comes through in this piece is how a transition away from the destructive, short-sighted practices of industrial agriculture could be eliminated without destroying the tiny remnant of “family farmers” by gearing federal policy toward supporting regenerative agriculture.
My cousin is a regenerative farmer in Kansas, with a colorful array of enemies. First, the agricultural colleges, which are all big ag and think he’s a starvationist. Then the ecologists, who think he’s anti-groovy for using chemicals to beat back invasives before nourishing the soil. And farmers, who think he can’t possibly make money. He does, by selling seeds and practices rather than produce. Not a mass model, but real money, running 3000 acres like any successful farmer.
This piece is my families history in America, I’m 4th generation on the same land only farm got bigger as each wave of price and environmetal collapses made more land acquisition possible. Still, the trick is to survive and thrive, now certified organic, 73 years old and feeling it. No next gen, too much debt to rent ground out so selling. 5000ac, 3 million $ and the neighbors are aghast, way too high. this kind of sagebrush and coyote ground in the desert takes a life to make it produce.
Proud to say Spillman’s vision lives on at WSU with the research farm named after him and I served for years guiding plant breeders on next steps. It’s been a great career.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/26/government-funded-social-network-attacking-pesticide-critics
… at first blush going over the crop insurance database, the best returns by far are for organic summerfallow. If added acres are more than 2000, then you are assigned county t-yields. County t-yields for organic are 24bu X 16ac =$384 and this is reflected in the appraisal iirc. A three year rotation of organic cover crop peas as a substitute for SF, organic winter wheat, then organic spring wheat and back to organic cover crop, generates the best returns and offers the best possibility for weed control in any system, organic or not. I’ve used pseudomonas flourescens with good effect on goatgrass and cheatgrass and it is registered organic and not too expensive. Cash costs are low for this system with two to three tillage trips plus seeding plus harvest per year (seed 12, fuel 20, repairs 16, ins 12, labor 5) at $60/ac. This system disallows cover crop grazing as means to terminate the crop, but does give SF crop insurance coverage. This generates (192-60)X2300=$303,600 annually. County T-yields are 39 for SF practice, nonorganic, but crop insurance coverage is half at $8/bu= $312/ac.
There are a lot of permutations from this to consider, but this gets you to where you need to be. Marketing is the greatest opportunity here, crop insurance allows a bushel price coverage level reflecting a higher contract price if you can get it. Organic is what consumers wants. I will suggest that organic SF yields will be closer to conventional SF yields in this 3 year system as the t-yield reductions are arbitrary. We can add 10 months of grazing at $15X 100=$15,000 even though there is not the opportunity to graze out peas.
13. RMA Summerfallow Practice – If a cover crop is planted during the fallow year, the acreage may be insured under the summerfallow practice for the current crop year provided the cover crop was not hayed, grazed, or otherwise harvested, and terminated in accordance with the Guidelines but no later than June 1 preceding the insured crop. RMA summerfallow practice is an insurability requirement and cover crops planted on summerfallow acreage must be terminated in accordance with this definition. Producers should contact their local NRCS office for appropriate cover crops that can be grown in summerfallow regions. Examples of high water use cover crops are alfalfa, sugar beets, cereal rye, corn, mustard, radishes, and turnips. For the 2020 and succeeding crop years, if a cover crop was planted during the fallow year was hayed, grazed, or otherwise harvested, or not terminated by June 1, the acreage may be insured under the “continuous cropping practice” (if available in your county), or by written agreement (if continuous cropping is not available in your county).
cover-crops-termination-guidelines-designed-v4-2019-updated.pdf (usda.gov)
Ukraine may be striking deep inside Russia, and it may be striking with weapons that do not use US hands and secure tools!
JASSM needs US personnel in the mission!
Doesn’t Putin’s big nuke strategy announcement essentially moot that plan? I have a hard time believing that this is real anymore. More like hopium to keep Ukraine fighting ’til the last Ukrainian, and kick the can another 40 days or so until the whole thing collapses after the country is marked safe from Orangeman.
We’d better hope so, at least. Please hug your friends/family/pets extra hard this weekend.
Terrorists! There are too few JASSM, and Strom Shadows to be anything but headline grabbing terror weapons! The launch platforms need to be high and not far from the borders!
Their role is to bomb civilian targets (nuclear terms counter value) the same way Israel bombs Gaza and Beirut.
Scott Ritter feels the same way, about the dangers the Biden/Harris combo is entertaining!
What me worry I have lived next to SAC alert facilities. I thought I was done……
I’m counting on being Fresno-adjacent as a bulwark against a blast, as who would willingly waste a perfectly good nuke on Fresno?
You reference to Fresno reminds me of a town here in Oz that experienced an earthquake years ago. It was said afterwards that the quake cause $20 million worth of improvements.
I’m especially hoping Fresno isn’t a target when we go to see Molly Tuttle & Golden Highway play at the Tower Theater in early October…
Molly Tuttle & Golden Highway – White Rabbit (Live)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeHlvXvG6vA
Passed through Fresno on the way to Yosemite on holiday last spring stopped for a very good burger.
Early spring there beats same in New England.
50 miles radius SE, SW and S of here are all kinds of defense contractors whose targeting is probable.
There are cat & dog years, and Fresno years are on a similar axis in that 1 hour spent there seemingly equals 6.66 hours, with an hour off for good behavior if you hung out in the REI or Trader Joes, but add an hour if you purchased hooch at one of what seems to be more liquor stores per capita than anywhere else you’ve ever been, befitting America’s drunkest large city, and hell yeah, i’d drink heavily if I lived there.
By the way; anyone hear from Fresno Dan lately? I cannot contact him with my Kremlin approved Pink Bunny Slippers and shortwave radio footwear.
He did marry the lady recently, so, perhaps he has better things to do now?
Anyway, stay safe Fresno Dan, wherever you are.
Nuking Fresno would eliminate a vital transportation link through the Central Valley. It would disrupt commerce in a big way.
I am reminded of when the twin towers came down how the KMJ radio blowhard Ray Appelton proclaimed: (I paraphrase) My god they just attacked New York. We need to take measures. Fresno could be next!
Being in a place not high on a target list is not always that comforting when you look at the prevailing winds. See windy.com
https://www.windy.com/?37.751,-97.822,5
Recently a story came out about Iran negotiating with Russia to get anti-ship missiles to Yemen, kind of a parallel to the long range strike bluster in the neocon press. The next day a crucial part of the fleet nearly sinks by ‘running aground’. Did they get hit?, did they have reason to intentionally stop there? Did they just have an accident from alcohol- or covid-induced fog?
Recall that by the time the decision is announced, the transfer has already occurred.
I did read (in a comment in Moon of Alabama I think) that it’s very unusual for a ship to run aground stern-first
yep! i never did see that in my 16 years at sea….;^) saw lots of running aground, but it was always bow first.
Naval drone, maybe?
USNS Big Horn…… USN needs to escort its oilers so they don’t back up on to reefs!
They probably do not have the manpower to give those oilers the escorts that they deserve. That is why 17 of those oilers are going to be retired – too many admirals and not enough swabbies. No swabbies, no escorts. But if the US Navy has only 10 oilers, that is not good news if the US Navy wants to go to war. You just know that somewhere some Chinese operations officer is humming to himself-
‘Ten oil tankers,
sailing out at sea,
Ten oil tankers,
sailing out at sea,
If one of them should…’
an escort will not overcome incompetence in the bridge.
It could, if the escorts were tugs!
Granted, you’d still be relying on
competence, but in a different set
of bridges.
For some reason I’m now thinking
of a saying among computer
programmers…. Something like
“There’s no problem that cannot be
solved by adding another layer of
indirection.”
> That is why 17 of those oilers are going to be retired …
It seems that you may have misunderstood that announcement from the US Navy that was reported about a month ago. Of those 17 ships that are going to be mothballed, only one is an oiler.
https://news.usni.org/2024/08/22/navy-could-sideline-17-support-ships-due-to-manpower-issues
Thanks for the clarification about that. Still, having 10 oilers is not something that I would have expected as some would be in for maintenance and servicing at any one time leaving fewer to service the fleets. Not a great plan. The Goddess of Logistics is an unforgiving b****.
There is a new class of oiler. Three have ben “finished” and all of them are in repair having met current US navy standards of not being able to pass the test voyages without major rework!
Big Horn is single hull which is environmentally unsound! Given the talent to beach them.
I think 5 of the oilers are in long term “repair” status.
Here is a substack for Navy (I was USAF!) talk.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#search/salamander/FMfcgzQXJQLbjjnMFClRJxStTjphzDnK
Oilers and escorts sounds like something Diddy would enjoy.
Was Diddy even born when Earl Campbell & Warren Moon were in their prime?
Don’t forget Dan Pastorini and “Bum” Phillips.
Love ya, blue!
Ten oily tankers, sailing out to sea
Silly sailors dreaming of the beach at Waikiki
When the Captain and his Chief back onto a reef
We find nine other tankers are imaginary
They aren’t going to be retired. De-crewed and laid up. These are civmar crewed with USCG licenses. USN thanks to MBA-types decided to move the combat logistics force out of the USN and instead make them all USNS.
Note that out of the 17 only one is an oiler, and I guess we now have a candidate for what one that would be. Meanwhile NASSCO is building replacements with Earl Warren T-AO-207 recently delivered.
Kind of questioning the “ran aground” bit. My first thought with no data would be mine or USV.
“Underwater allision” – learned a new word today. How on earth did the crew of the Big Horn make such a rookie mistake? Backing up onto a reef at speed sufficient to damage the rudder and hole the aft compartments?!? Basically converting the ship into a hulk in one fell swoop.
Not exactly a move which will inspire respect……..how bad is the Navy’s competence deficit? What could be causing it? I have my suspicions….like perhaps promotions based on some other factor than competence, for example.
My understanding is that ships with “USNS” rather than “USS” designations are crewed mostly by civilian personnel with navy contracts, not by military–a lot of support ships are USNS rather than USS.
Of course, that means the navy can’t even hire enough civilian contractors, let alone real swabbies, to crew its ships…
You are correct. These ships were manned with civilians quite a while ago. USN regulations prevented sailors from being overworked (and believe me, even with these regulations, sailors can be extremely overworked when deployed) so the idea was that “non-sailors” would be less expensive, and can be overworked.
You can imagine what’s happen – they are experienced, but are very overworked. And as you note, cannot hire enough.
Never heard of these “regulations prevented sailors from being overworked” on my ships, but I was a destroyer-man. Had a deployment where the CSG commander didn’t want ships below 70% fuel. That meant UNREPing every 3 days. Couldn’t interfere with “real work” so was always done from 2000-2400. Typical the CV would be alongside to port and we “small boys” took turns coming alongside to starboard. Our commodore expected us to always refuel from both forward and aft UNREP stations, meaning having 2x the personnel. But only taking on such a small amount, with both stations it was a challenge not overflowing or over-pressurizing. I was chief engineer and would typically just take on a small amount of fuel aft and get most from forward. That was also in view of the bridge watch team so they could better observe safety of the rig.
Keep in mind UNREPing isn’t like pulling into a gas station. First you have your main propulsion assistant (MPA) and oil king fill the fuel service tanks if needed (via purifiers that have to be maintained) then move fuel around the storage tanks as needed so there is a straight shot from the UNREP rig to tanks to fill (again with 2 rigs have to have 2 tanks ready to receive). So the oil kings have to “sound” the tanks to determine how full they are (sort of like using a dip stick to measure engine oil on your car).
Of course after completing the UNREP our “day” wasn’t done. We were required to conduct engineering exercises daily and again, can’t interfere with more important tasking (generally we have electronic equipment placed on standby when doing engineering drills as loss of electrical power is a typical feature of a drill). So from 2400-0300 was normal training time. Then during the day, expect to have GQ (general quarters) called away (all hands) at some point. All this besides your normal watchstanding (if lucky 3 section but if low on qualed sailors could be port/starboard) and “duty day” maintenance, paper work, meetings, etc.
So yes, I am looking for those “regulations” that are so much better than what USCG licensed government employees have.
It’s not like they’ve ran into a cargo ship.
From comments on the gtanker forum…. they had a photo of the ship riding ‘high’ in the water, with the bow elevated quite a bit higher than the stern. The speculation was that most of the fuel had been pumped out already, leading to the damage at the stern just because the bow happened to be floating higher.
In my misspent youth I hung around KC135 air refueling tankers.
One Friday PM, a fuels and crew chief team were directed to defuel an aircraft to put it the hangar for repairs.
Somehow the airman in charge refueled the forward tanks making the center of gravity move toward the tail. The aircraft settled to the rear loading weight on the refueling boom which sustain unremembered damage.
The flight line supervisor ordered all airmen on the flight line in to the aircraft, the ordered them to walk slowly forward until the aircraft was on its nose gear, a piece of equipment held the tail up and rear tanks lightened. At least that is the informal incident report.
I am not surprised that the modern civilian navy is as “smart” as the post Vietnam USAF.
RE: Ordinary Times
It feels like that the author is pining for a GOP that won’t (or can’t) exist. So weird to consider TPP a net good, however.
Regrettably, off-topic: Could a member of the commentariat (and the moderator) take pity on a loyal NC lurker with dreadful digital skills and slip me the title and author of that book on alternative medicine that KLG discussed recently?
If so, THANK YOU & blessings on you.
Was it Jonathan Stea’s Mind the Science: Saving Your Mental Health from the Wellness Industry, posted on the 18?
“Biden: ‘All-out war’ still possible as Israel and Hezbollah fighting escalates”
At the moment countries like France are trying to organize a 21-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. But of course there is no talk of a ceasefire in Gaza so the massacres will continue. That being the case, I do not think that Hezbollah would agree to a ceasefire unless it extended to Gaza as well and that is something that the Netanyahu government will not do. Upon reflection, I think that Israel wants this 21 day ceasefire for several reasons. They would be able to take troops and equipment from the northern border to commit more attacks on Gaza to clear out the diehards. It would give them time to replenish their anti-air missiles which may be running short. They would be able to catch up on vital maintenance of their equipment and get in more gear from their allies. In addition, it would give them a break to stockpile the bombs and equipment that they would need to attack Lebanon with as at the moment they are having to use what they receive or make. But in any case, I do not think that the ultra hard-right In Israel would permit this to happen no matter how beneficial it would be for the country as all they want to do is to bomb and to kill. Would you believe that the settlers have already come out with a map of southern Lebanon with Hebrew names?
https://thecradle.co/articles-id/27004
That French initiative is already a dead cat. Netanyahu swatted it down like you or I swat an annoying fly.
Bibi is going to “ground and pound” and doesn’t care a whit about Macron, Biden, or any other Western tool who he knows he owns.
Bibi Netanyahu. A man with the strategic vision of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Who knew?
A Coup in Brussels – Thomas Fazi, Compact
Is this the first female fascist coup in Europe?
Different faces for the same 20th Century BS.
It’s the beginning of a very quick end to the EU, so well done `Useless!. The hope was that a single currency would bind it against incautious political nonentities, like Useless, who want to replay their parents’ fantasies of the Third Reich, but the euro has become a major constraint on economic activity in the countries of the founding six (ignoring Luxembourg which has always had something of the financial spiv about it and makes a profit whichever way the other economies go).
As a pro-european who voted to remain in the EU, I am now grateful that the British people finally took Enoch Powell’s arguments and advice and bounced us out of there. No doubt Der Starmer willl try and get us back in, but it’s too much like pretending a graveyard with coffins floating to the surface after a hard rainstorm is an ideal area for a picnic for it to be successful.
But it would be nice to enjoy some of the benefits of the single market, but the idea of a federal Europe as a slightly more sadistic version of a Nazified Holy Roman Empire is, frankly, sickening to anyone who belongs to a nation and not a political ideology in which the state of exception is the norm.
Why Everything We Think We Know About Spies Is Wrong – Literary Hub
The opening:
“In the movies, spies are usually ripped hunks who carry lots of gadgets, like James Bond and Jason Bourne. That’s rarely the case in real life, however. When the Office of Strategic Services, the precursor to the CIA, was established in haste at the outset of WWII, the spies tapped to join were librarians, professors, and researchers quite literally pulled from college campuses.
They proved to be uniquely suited to the job of discerning intel buried in mountains of documents, traveling to far-flung archives in occupied territories and weaseling their way in, and generally slipping under the radar as the bookish types they were, in order to gather and deliver highly sensitive information. Some of them were sent to learn the real rules of spycraft at the training schools of the Special Operations Executive, Britain’s clandestine intelligence agency.”
Reminds me that “The Good Shepherd” is probably the best movie about spies that I’ve ever seen.
It covered much of the process described above.
The book “A Man Called Intrepid” is very informative regarding the clandestine efforts in WWII. There may well be a spy next door to you.
“Collapsing Defensive Lines and Offensive Dreams in Ukraine”
At the moment the priority of the Biden White House is to make sure that there is no collapse of the Ukraine like happened with Afghanistan. Well, until November that is and preferably not earlier than next January. Even if Kamala wins, the people who have been pushing this war like Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan will be safely out the door and probably headed for some think tank or university position like Victoria Nuland lined up for herself. It will be somebody else’s problem and the collapse did not happen on their watch so have clean hands. Now all the Biden White House needs to do is to convince the Russians not to collapse the Ukrainian lines till then.
“Now all the Biden White House needs to do is to convince the Russians not to collapse the Ukrainian lines till then.”
Actually, I think the Biden White House needs to worry about the Ukraine doing something amazingly stupid. Putin has shown no interest in changing the SMO/war plan based on US politics.
Netanyahu wants the emergency to keep going, and he also knows the West can only get off its knees. A heavily subsidized population about the same size as Virginia can’t function.
In the wake of the pager terrorist attack, no one sane would consider doing business with Israelis. Netanyahu has to keep Biden et al down.
“Netanyahu has to keep Biden et al down.”
Biden is already “down”. Nutty-yahoo has to continue to play pretend and prop up Bernie (excuse me, Biden) with the rest of the global leadership fools and wonks.
Interesting LRB on department stores and the transformation they represented.
In an almost mirror image Robert Caro’s Power Broker talks about how Robert Moses remade NY using freeways rather than boulevards to clear “slums” of their residents and speed the elites out to the Hamptons. Perhaps because as an American I grew up in such a wide open spaces world my long ago Europe explorations preferred the quaint alleys of central London to those wide, built to impress Paris boulevards. As for the palaces of consumption that accompanied them, we had and to a lesser extent still have those with the Walmart version added in for the peasants.
Now our world is going virtual and perhaps a good thing given climate fears. But the article says that for people like Virginia Woolf it was all new and wonderful.
Robert Moses destroyed a good bit of Niagara Falls history and scenic beauty in building the “Robert Moses Parkway” along the Niagara River in the early 1960’s. The City fought its construction but, couldn’t match the power of Robert Moses. Many beautiful 1800’s Victorian homes were demolished overlooking the falls to build the roadway. One of these was my Great Uncle’s. The Roadway was never used to any great degree and they eventually shut down sections at the falls to autos to run tourist trolly trains along it. Urban renewal was a disaster for Niagara Falls vs. the Canadian side that retained much of the original architecture. In 2015 they renamed it the Niagara Scenic Parkway.
Coupla days back NC had an interesting article on the Roberts Caro and Moses. Worth a repeat link.
https://www.curbed.com/article/robert-caro-power-broker-lyndon-johnson-book-interview.html
I read Power Broker some years ago. Moses was was instrumental in creating the 64/65 NY World’s Fair that my family attended (twice!). We attended Niagara Falls same trip but on the more appealing Canadian side.
“Putin’s Silence on Kursk Offensive Might Be a Giant Mistake RAND”
I can’t even…
I understand that the idea is, I guess, to provide a plurality of viewpoints, but at this rate we might as well be putting up Hamish de Breton-Gordon’s opuses up in the links section. His, at least, are funnier. Like the one from a couple of days ago, comparing Putin to Napoleon after the Battle of Borodino, which comparison is in the “how many mushrooms did you consume intravenously today” category.
But getting back to the RAND piece. For example, let’s take the headline idea that Putin does not speak of Kursk too frequently. Why should he?
– The hour-long national nightly news on state-owned Channel 1 devotes roughly 10 minutes of coverage to the Kursk region every single day, usually split evenly between reporters visiting with the troops and talking to civilians. It’s the same reporters, by the way, so not an ad-hoc “whom can we send today” but an actual “beat” for the media organization. As well, the weekly news overview on Sunday night replays many of these reports in expanded format (i.e. including filmed material that had not made it into the nightly news).
– The Ministry of Defence has created two separate daily briefings specifically for the Kursk region, one under its own auspices, and another one given by Group of Armies North.
– Solov’ev Live’s media complex – which includes multiple hours of radio shows that you couldn’t pay me to listen to, as well as a five-times-a-week (Sunday through Thursday) television spectacular, and which is also “state-owned” through the same media corporation as Channel 1 – spends hours upon hours upon hours talking about Kursk every single day, including giving platform to at least one of the popular military bloggers (Rybar).
These are just a handful of examples, but really, Kursk is, one might argue, talked about so much over there that Putin piping up on a daily basis a la Cuomo’s COVID briefings, every single one of which I’d watched (because masochism), would be, frankly, counter-productive. It’s like Russia is 17th century France (but without the wigs), where absolutely nothing happens without the king’s personal involvement – and even Louis XIV had his ministers and other proxies.
I won’t even mention the fact that when the RAND “analyst” tries to find any evidence of Russian civilians being disappointed, discouraged, abandoned, et cetera, he links to…drum roll, please…a Radio Free Europe piece. Just about all the other links that I checked are to articles in the Washington Post, the National Interest, the Atlantic Council, Kiev Post…you get the drift.
Seriously, if we want to include stuff from the pro-Ukraine side, I boost for Hamish de Breton-Gordon!
For what it’s worth, I see it as showing how far RAND has fallen as an intellectual endeavor.
Also, while it just be my ignorance, I don’t think I’ve ever heard of Hamish de Breton-Gordon, but I have heard of RAND. Point being, NC has always made it a point to show multiple viewpoints, especially those that have name recognition and are routinely touted by the PMC.
Thank you for your service.
The commentariat takes turns doing RAND takedowns.
RAND articles are regulary posted in order to see who will react first. When the next one appears you will skip it, but someone else won’t. :)
Re: People hugely underestimate the carbon footprints of the 1 per cent:
No doubt, as the carbon footprint is appallingly large. But the article goes on to focus on the overestimation of the poorest’s carbon footprint, and conveniently ignores the very large carbon footprint of everybody in the middle. So, we can sneer at the wealthy, feel some compassion for the poor, and not face the truth of our own extravagance and the fact that a significant change will require materially lower living standards for all but the poorest.
Hmmm–Reading that same article, my takeaway is so different and more in line with:
Previous research by Jared Starr at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and his colleagues has shown that the richest 1 per cent of the US population is responsible for more carbon emissions than the entire bottom 50 per cent. “If people don’t know who is actually creating emissions, it complicates our ability to build public support for policies that would address climate change,” he says.
4,000 + people in 4 countries
Nigerians, though, unlike Americans seem to have their ear on the rails…
Boeing’s supply chain shudders as workers walk and production slows – FT
Strikes this far into the monopolization/consolidation of so many industries are maybe reaching a tipping point.
On the one hand, the companies feel emboldened because the workers don’t have as many options in the same industry. They have to try to break into another industry (also probably consolidated or in the process of being consolidated).
On the other hand, the companies don’t have a pool of skilled workers in the industry and, with the preference for laying off older workers, start to miss some aspects of institutional knowledge. They don’t have many places to go for workers with the exact skills (they’re busy doing buy backs rather than on the job training and have no competition that trains workers).
The more consolidated the industries become, the more they need to believe the AI Snake Oil stories.
Re: China Weighs $142 Billion Capital Injection Into Top Banks:
Let’s keep things in proportion here – the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program, post the SVB & Signature Bank runs, provided about $165 billion in loans to big banks, and the 2008 TARP funds disbursed around $433 billion. So I find it a bit hard to justify much pearl clutching about $142 bn.
I don’t think they are pearl clutching at giving money to the banks. As you pointed out, that fits with the USA actions and ideology. I suspect they don’t like the ways China has set it up so that the bankstas here can’t get control any of the money.
Keeping things in proportion would take away from it’s usefulness in propping up their narrative, can’t have that. Thanks for the benchmark reminder for the rest of us.
The raccoons in my zip code could use some fitness tips from the one in today’s antidote.
Reuters video: this German butcher offers raccoon sausages and meatballs — yum (?)
https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW454011042024RP1/
And they even feed the lawyers:
https://www.lto.de/recht/nachrichten/n/lg-frankfurt-202o57823-waschbaer-haus-schaedling-schadensersatz
Judgement about recovery of damages when after a pipe burst a plumber left open a small room, in which a family of raccoons found asylum. They can do a lot of damage and you don’t get many hostages out of them.
So the liberal Democrat solution for climate is going to be geo-engineering, and if you have any qualms with that, you’re a crank:
Conspiracy Theorists and Vaccine Skeptics Have a New Target: Geoengineering (NY Times via archive.ph)
Good to have cleared that up, at least! NY Times headlines is a good way to keep up to date with the liberal Democrat belief system.
I guess Tennessee’s recent legislation is only aimed at “conspiracies”
https://stateaffairs.com/tennessee/agriculture/chemtrails-bill-signed/
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/25/climate/rogue-solar-geoengineering.html
September 25, 2024
Silicon Valley Renegades Pollute the Sky to Save the Planet
Some restless entrepreneurs are releasing pollutants in the sky to try to cool the planet.
By David Gelles
Photographs by Ian C. Bates
SARATOGA, Calif. — A silver Winnebago pulled up to a self storage warehouse on the outskirts of a Silicon Valley suburb and three renegade climate entrepreneurs piled out, all mohawks, mustaches and camouflage shorts.
Working swiftly, the men unlocked a storage unit crammed with drones and canisters of pressurized gas. Using a dolly, they wheeled out four tanks containing sulfur dioxide and helium, and stacked them on the floor of the camper van. Then, almost as quickly as they arrived, they were on the road, headed for the golden hills near the Pacific Ocean…
Nothing about Eric Adams and his indictment?
I want to know if the crypto man was using crypto and thinking it was “anonymous”.
Also, to toot my own horn, I quipped early in the days when he popped on the scene that he was an ass that would probably end up in jail.
The indictment dropped after Links launched. We are not psychics.
Oops. I’m on Pacific Time, so I guess it seemed early in the eve yesterday when the news dropped.
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/interview/2024/09/25/7194811/
Fukuyama: Russians are not feeling enough pain and suffering to agree to a ceasefire
Professor Francis Fukuyama is a world-renowned American philosopher and researcher in politics and international relations. He has always been a staunch supporter of Ukraine.
– – – – –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man
The End of History and the Last Man is a 1992 book of political philosophy by American political scientist Francis Fukuyama which argues that with the ascendancy of Western liberal democracy—which occurred after the Cold War (1945–1991) and the dissolution of the Soviet Union (1991)—humanity has reached “not just … the passing of a particular period of post-war history, but the end of history as such: That is, the end-point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.”
He should re-read his own work maybe…?
Political Order and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalisation of Democracy is a 2014 book by American political scientist Francis Fukuyama. The book follows Fukuyama’s 2011 book, The Origins of Political Order, written to shed light on political institutions and their development in different regions.[1]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_Order_and_Political_Decay
Twenty years after his pivotal 1989 essay “The End of History?”, Fukuyama remains committed to the liberal democratic state as an ideal form of government, compared to alternatives such as the Chinese, Russian or Islamist governments.[2] However, he warns against internal forces leading to stagnation and political decay within liberal democracies, which threatens the future of this form of government.
Has Fukuyama ever lived in a liberal democratic state? I don’t think he knows enough of any of those systems of governance to make judgement… On his credit, though, he says Russia, not Putin. But like a good western scholar, he doesn’t seem to understand Russia’s security concerns, and why ceasefire won’t happen until those are met. Pain or no pain.
You mean “The End of History” was a real proposal? I did know it wasn’t a work of sci-fi fiction but assumed it was an examination of a proposal along the lines of a University debate, examining what was actually meant by ‘History’ and what would constitute its ‘end’, or perhaps whether History was working towards some inevitable end – at least before the heat-death of the Universe. That someone claiming the title ‘scientist’ should be ignorant of, or be able to turn a blind eye, to the fact that every civilisation in ‘History’ has at some point, usually just before its collapse, has regarded itself as the epitome of success and been unable to envisage any alternative to its existance, amazes me.
Regarding the Thomas Massie article in Responsible Statecraft, I too have been puzzled for the past two years about the lack of reliable numbers on Ukrainian casualties. Like Tom Massie, I asked Chat GPT for the answer and received a fairly generic response:
“As of now, estimating the exact number of Ukrainian casualties since the Russian invasion in February 2022 is challenging due to the ongoing conflict and the difficulty in obtaining accurate data. However, various sources, including government reports and independent organizations, indicate that tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have been killed or wounded. Estimates can vary significantly, so for the most current and specific numbers, it’s best to refer to reputable news sources or official reports from organizations involved in monitoring the situation.”
The U.S. seems to know the casualty numbers for Vietnam within a couple of hundred troops. Why is there such a fog of war on the Ukraine numbers?
There is nothing puzzling about the lack of reliable numbers on Ukrainian casualties. Once those numbers go out, morale goes out the window along with the “we are winning” narrative, and “we are not losing” narrative, and the war is over. In order to keep the business going lie has to be maintaned, and that is what ChatGPT gave you. It says that “tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have been killed or wounded”. Number of dead is in hundreds of thousands, not in tens. Graveyards are full. If you were to add wounded, you would probably be in the neighbourhood of a million. ChatGPT works on GIGO principle (input being “reputable news sources or official reports from organizations involved in monitoring the situation”).
$600 million for proposed East Palestine settlement ÷ about 55,000 claims = about $11,000 per claim. . . .