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Yves here. This post showcases the premise that populism is a bad thing, which is a revealing premise in a nominally democratic system. Nevertheless, the authors use store closures on high streets as a proxy enduring poor economic conditions. They find that in the UK, those store shutterings are correlated with the propensity to vote for UKIP. The recommendation is long-term revitalization schemes plus shorter-term measures to improve appearances.
To raise some quibbles: correlation is not causation. In New York City, years after the financial crisis, vacant storefronts became widespread in tony areas like upper Madison and Third Avenue on the Upper East Side. There were also unheard-of vacancies in the most exclusive area of Madison Avenue, from 57th Street to 72nd Street. In the uppper Madison/Third Avenue cases, I was told landlords held off on rent increases for a few years after the crisis, and then overwhelmingly put through big rent rises, typically double the former level. They reportedly also were not cutting them even after the space remained vacant for 18 months or more. There are long NYC-centric explanations for this behavior.
But the point as it applies to this story is it seems extremely unlikely that many stores remaining vacant for long periods (often 3-5 storefronts a block, as in most assuredly enough to be noticed) led to a change in voting behavior. The authors of this analysis admittedly did find that tendency to move to the right was greatest among the unemployed. Manhattan is such a high housing cost area that you need a decent income to remain, which means a job or a lot of assets.
As for the recommendation to try to pretty up high streets with many closed stores, at first that struck me as an exercise in Potemkin villaging. But I hate to say it, that sort of thing would probably give a psychological boost. Where I live now was hit hard in the Asian crisis, the 2007-2008 crisis, and then as a tourist destination, by Covid. There are still closed stores in all but the most hopping areas, like on the beach, and too many places that look shabbier than they ought to. I sometimes grumble to a cabbie when he has good enough English to converse that the city should invest in painting the 20% worst looking buildings on major streets, that it would make a huge difference to how the city looked, as well as subsidizing replacing badly worn banners. And I notice when I do see a recently painted partly vacant building that I assume a new tenant is coming in. So I am exhibiting exactly the sort of reaction that this article posits takes place.
Another way to view this finding is that spending even if the impact is only cosmetic, to show that these towns have not been forgotten, is still better than nothing.
By Thiemo Fetzer, Professor of Economics University Of Bonn; Theme Leader for Globalisation and Global Crises, Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE); Professor of Economics University Of Warwick; Jacob Edenhofer, DPhil student in Politics, Nuffield College University Of Oxford; and Prashant Garg, PhD student Imperial College London. Originally published at VoxEU
Support for right-wing populist parties in many advanced democracies is characterised by considerable regional heterogeneity. This column uses data on high-street vacancies in the UK to show that visible signs of local decline play a crucial role in driving support for right-wing populists. One important policy implication is that countering populism requires not only regional policies whose returns materialise over the longer term, but also measures aimed at reducing the visible signs of decline in the short term.
Support for right-wing populist parties in many advanced democracies is characterised by considerable regional heterogeneity, with these parties being especially successful in regions where manufacturing traditionally accounted for a large share of local economic activity (Autor et al. 2020, Broz et al. 2021, Guriev and Papaioannou 2022, Rodríguez-Pose 2018, Rodrik 2021). In many instances, these regions have become fertile ground for populist sentiment, partly due to the visible externalities of economic downturns and austerity (Fetzer 2019), such as increasing high-street vacancies, homelessness (Fetzer et al. 2023), and crime (Bray et al. 2022, Che et al. 2018, Facchetti 2023, 2024, Fetzer 2023). In a new paper (Fetzer et al. 2024), we examine the relationship between local economic decline and support for right-wing populism. Specifically, we use novel data on high-street vacancies across England and Wales to explore how this visible marker of decline influences political behaviour.
High-Street Vacancies as Indicators of Local Decline
Our central contribution is empirical, namely, to have gathered novel data on high-street vacancies. This matters because vacancies serve as a visible and potent indicator of local economic decline. By virtue of their visibility, high-street vacancies are a particularly good proxy for local economic decline, which individuals are therefore likely to use to update their beliefs about local economic activity. Other indicators, such as unemployment rates at the local authority level, are noisier signals of local economic activity, harder to perceive, and thus less likely to shape attitudes and political behaviour. Hence, we improve on previous studies on the effect of local decline on populist support, most notably those by Arzheimer et al. (2024) and Green et al. (2024), in one key respect: these studies use survey items related to local decline to measure the latter, which carries the risk that results are driven by misperceptions or misreporting of decline. By using an objectively measurable, specific, and highly visible component of decline – high-street vacancies – we can circumvent that problem.
Growing vacancies themselves may be the product of structural change: the shift from offline to online commerce since the late 2000s and its heterogeneous effects across communities. While the structural change may have beneficial effects for consumer welfare, it may be highly heterogeneous across individuals if the mode of consumption itself is considered a valuable social consumption good, contributing to a sense of connectedness, belonging and community cohesion.
This study uses data from the Local Data Company (LDC), covering approximately 83,000 commercial premises across 197 towns in England and Wales from 2009 to 2019. The data reveal substantial regional variation in vacancy rates, with higher rates clustered in the northeast of England, where many regions experienced a marked increase in vacancies following the 2008 financial crisis.
Figure 1 Geographic distribution of high-street vacancies
Note: This figure visualises the geographic distribution of high-street vacancies by local authority in England and Wales. The map highlights considerable regional variation, with higher vacancy rates predominantly in the northeast of England, where many local authorities exhibit vacancy rates exceeding 10%. The data covers approximately 83,000 physical premises across 197 towns in 93 different local authorities between 2009 and 2019.
The geographic clustering of high-street vacancies in certain regions, particularly in the northeast, underscores the uneven impact of economic decline across the country. These vacancies are not merely a symptom of economic distress but also contribute to shaping the political landscape by reinforcing perceptions of neglect and decline.
The Rise of UKIP and the Role of Local Decline
The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) capitalised on these sentiments, drawing significant support from regions experiencing high levels of economic decline. We examine the relationship between high-street vacancies and support for UKIP, using data from the Understanding Society Survey to track political preferences over time. The analysis reveals a robust positive association between high-street vacancies and UKIP support, even after controlling for various individual and regional factors.
Figure 2 High-street vacancy rates and UKIP support
Note: This figure illustrates the positive relationship between high-street vacancy rates and support for UKIP. It demonstrates the robustness of this relationship by testing it across different subsets of local authorities. Even when a random portion of local authorities is excluded from the analysis, the positive association remains strong. The purple line represents the overall trend, showing that as vacancy rates increase, so does the probability of supporting UKIP. The consistent results across different scenarios reinforce the reliability of this finding.
The results suggest that visible signs of local decline, such as high-street vacancies, play a crucial role in driving support for right-wing populists. This relationship is not driven by individuals who work or used to work in the retail sector, suggesting that our results are due to populist-boosting effects of decline’s spatial externalities, rather than greater economic insecurity at the individual level.
Heterogeneity in Populist Support
The impact of high-street vacancies on populist support is not uniform across all regions or demographic groups. Our study finds that unemployed individuals are more likely to support UKIP in response to increasing vacancies, reflecting their heightened vulnerability to local economic shocks.
Figure 3 Heterogeneity in UKIP support by employment status
Note: This figure depicts the marginal effect of high-street vacancy rates on UKIP support, differentiated by unemployment status. We control for: age, an outright homeownership dummy, a dummy for chronic health conditions, as well as age and region-by-quarter fixed effects. The results show that the effect of high-street vacancies on UKIP support is significantly stronger for unemployed respondents, highlighting the heightened sensitivity of economically vulnerable groups to local economic distress.
These findings underscore the importance of addressing the visible consequences of economic decline to mitigate the rise of right-wing populism. Policies aimed at revitalising declining high streets and improving local economic conditions could play a crucial role in countering the appeal of populist parties. We anticipate that the pandemic-induced migration from urban agglomerations to the countryside, including the rise of remote work, may help reverse this trend.
Conclusion: Implications for Policy and Future Research
This study highlights the critical role of visible and local economic decline in shaping political preferences and fuelling the rise of right-wing populism. The visible impact of high-street vacancies on support for UKIP underscores the need for targeted policies to address the underlying causes of economic decline and its spatial externalities. Future research should focus on exploring the causal mechanisms with tighter identification underlying this relationship and identifying effective strategies for mitigating the negative effects of local economic decline on political behaviour.
More broadly, our findings suggest that stymieing far-right populists might require that levelling-up measures with longer-term returns – including investments to improve the skill base of the workforce and infrastructure in declining regions (Bartik 2020, Gold and Lehr 2024, Lee 2024) – are complemented with shorter-term measures aimed at addressing particularly visible and easy-to-perceive spatial externalities, such as high-street vacancies.
See original post for references
Thomas Frank’s What’s The Matter with Kansas and some of the essays in his Rendezvous With Oblivion made a similar point to this, but rather more substantially. He was particularly scathing about attempts to make declining neighbourhoods and cities more “vibrant”.
The reaction of someone here at the sharp end – in one of the most “marginal” (politically) parts of the UK is “well, duh!” How’s about getting some longitudinal data from key areas like where I live? My parliamentary constituency until Blair’s landslide win had a candidate from the BNP (fascist) at elections. That party disappeared pronto in 1997. (OK the money invested was “funny money” aka PPI but still, it shows what is needed.) Since 2015 and austerity it is back in force but called UKIP, now Reform, and it got a fairly respectable third place in our July General Election.
To be honest this article read like “blah blah blah”. I’ve read this nonsense for years going back to my Economics (Cantab) degree. The answer is penalising ANYONE who owns a shop and doesn’t make it viable (so land value tax should be – and I’ll stress this – PART of the solution), investing in local skills rather than making central Nottingham a shrine to student accommodation – and those students will emerge with debt and no relevant skills.
We have got to September and support for our new Labour MP has already tanked. My mum loved him cause (like me) he’s vaguely erudite and gay. As I told her, “that’s not what is wanted round here – plus he’s a family blogging moron with fewer brain cells than our cat”. After he was one of the govt loyalists who voted to cut her winter heating benefit she joined the mob on Facebook calling for his head. Cue hollow laughs from me. I had followed Jonathan Pie’s suggestion at the election and drew a big spaffing cock across my ballot because we have no even vaguely competent person competing to fill in the empty suburb we have become.
People are gonna wonder in 2028/2029 how we got a Reform govt. I’m calling it now. With our local MP it’s practically guaranteed. And if you think “that can’t happen” I’ll simply direct you to the wiki about Canadian politics in the 1990s. Even the names match up! History DOES repeat, not “merely” rhyme.
And the neurons in your cat probably work properly but those in Starmer’s brain… i just cannot imagine the mess in there!— On the other hand anyone in bad situation looks at the left and the right of the political spectrum and won’t find any potential solution but at least will be able to understand and possibly like a few of the things they say in the populist right. Except in Germany where you now can find a “populist” left alternative which can be understood. On this, Germany is leading. That made some commenter in the Guardian to confuse her/himself with the political orientation of Wagenecht’s party.
Yeah the Labour robots around here are quickly learning to STFU. There was a 36 hour silence from our MP after THAT vote – never witnessed him shut up for that long before. He probably was frantically calling Facebook HQ to try to dampen things down.
Glad somewhere has a vaguely sensible leftist populist…..we need one around here. My Dad has said I should do something…..I’m assuming and hoping he is telling a bad joke because the idea of me “politicking” is stupider than voting for our cat.
Though the former Washington BBC correspondent has shown interest in my voting stuff so it’s nice to get SOME traction!
No mention here of Left-populism. The defenestration of Corbyn et. al. by the Labour Party elites masks the fact that Left parties have also traditionally run populist campaigns. What could be more “populist” than the workers controlling the ‘means of production?’
I see here a “chicken or egg” question. Which came first, the decline of the “High Street” or the political alienation of the working class? To that end, sprucing up the High Street could be viewed as an exercise in “Narrative Control.”
“You are not feeling hunger and fear Citizen. Look at the High Street. Everything is just fine and dandy. Stop whingeing and learn to code.”
It is quite possible that both the rise of Right populism and the decline of the High Street stem from the same source, economic decline and stagnation.
Having lived through an actual Gentrification program after the devastation of Hurricane Katrina on the Mississippi Gulf Coast, this reminds me of it. Consider this proposal as a mental gentrification proposal. Really, it is a form of Magical Thinking. Make ‘things’ look better and they will soon be better.
One can put lipstick on a pig, but that will not make anyone want to kiss it.
But if you’re a former Prime Minister you might wanna family blog it. What? I’m referring to the episode of Black Mirror. What were YOU thinking of?
If that pig had still been alive, that Officer Dim looking English Politico would have been putting his “johnson” at risk.
‘Black Mirror?’ Do you mean the BUF, Mosley Partei associated London daily rag? Somehow, I cannot bring myself to imagine that you are referring to the once honourable Private Eye. In Pseud’s Corner ‘they’ would have described the aforementioned Politico and his porcine paramour as “vigourously discussing Uganda,” no doubt.
If that Tory twit can be elected to Parliament, you most certainly can. Indeed, you might be refused the opportunity because you are “overqualified.” In that case, you might fancy running the Cat for office. (Italy elected a certain “Little Chicken” to their legislature, so, it seems to be an accepted practice in the Eurozone.)
Stay safe.
The local declines definitely shift political opinion. Post debate, It seems trump has captured the debate about immigration. While mainstream media and Democrats make fun of trump, there are stories popping up everywhere on social media. People keeping focus on what is happening with all these immigrants and corporations bringing them in. Americans didn’t get to vote on this. Government neglected these areas for decades, corporations complain about the poor quality of workforce, and then a whole new population is moved in mass to replace the last deplorables remaining. People are now empowered to make videos of the corporation using a bunch of immigrants at the factory in their small town. And these videos are now everywhere. Rather than spend the hundreds of billions of dollars on Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, just spend money to improve our own towns. In an empire, there is no domestic policy (who gives a shit about Springfield Ohio), only foreign policy (who’s country are we going to plunder next). That idea has crystallized in people’s minds. How many times over the last 6 weeks has anyone cared/listened too what Harris/waltz said? Like two times. Last night of convention and maybe the interview that talked about nothing. No one remembers what she said in debate. Just like 2016, it’s 24/7 trump except it’s on social media. And then he got shot at again by a pro-ukraine war nut job that had been interviewed multiple times by mainstream media. Weird circumstances keep confirming Trump’s point. My democratic friends are just in denial.
The big underlying assumption here is that the population has some sort of significant democratic choice. I would say the UK has a nominally democratic system, but not really functioning to provide meaningful choice. One could argue that the UK has very little, if any, meaningful choice.
So-called New Labour and Tony Blair (big fan of Thatcher) shifted the political spectrum to the right/authoritarian quadrant. Labour are now anti-labour and warmongers, almost indistinguishable from the Tories. (very similar to the Bipartisan Consensus in the US) The working class have no choice but to turn to so-called populism. In the context of declining economic conditions, rising immigration and where both major political parties have thrown the majority of the population under the bus, the situation is ripe for demagogues, and scapegoating the internal Other. Since the electorate is desperate, and have nowhere to turn, they are more easily manipulated and will be more open to “populism”. Of course, the leaders like Farage (or DT in the US) are typical narcissists and egomaniacs, and don’t really care at all about the majority, as long as they get them to support them. They can easily get the plebs to blame the Other and not look behind the thin curtain at the oligarchy that have abused their power. In short: blame the powerless, and worship the powerful. Divide and distract the plebs and they are easily manipulated and mobilized to the cause.
If/when material conditions continue to decline, and no political solutions are offered, no meaningful choice offered, the likelihood for more political violence will increase. Wait until the NHS is fully privatised and people are left mired in medical debts and bankruptcy. As the old song says “If you want blood, You got it!”
Drive through any French village not on the tourist trail and it’s infuriating. These used to be places with at the very least a bakery, a staples grocer, a few cafés and a post office. Now they’re empty and the local mayors are willing to make a bargain with Satan himself (in the form of the giants of mass distribution) to just get a viable business on the rue principale. There’s a heck of a lot of solid logic in this argument.