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On the Second Trump Assassination Attempt: What We Know So Far

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

I believe I’ve mentioned that 2024 will be volatile? Here’s perhaps the best headline for the story dominating today’s news: “Trump was on the links taking a breather from the campaign. Then the Secret Service saw a rifle“:

For the second time in just over two months, someone apparently tried to shoot Trump and came dangerously close to the former president in that effort — within 500 yards Sunday, law enforcement officials said. This time, the gunfire came from the Secret Service, before the suspect could get any shots off at his target… Secret Service agents immediately used their bodies to shield Trump and moved him to the golf course’s clubhouse, where he remained until he went back to Mar-a-Lago about 15 minutes away… “It was certainly an interesting day! ” Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday night. He effusively thanked law enforcement for keeping him “SAFE.”

The alleged shooter has been identified as “Ryan Wesley Routh” (hereafter, “Routh,” with “alleged” always implied, since he has not been formally named or charged, as of this writing).

Rumors swirl. Memes go viral. Yarn diagrams are woven. Accounts are closed. Officials issue denials. In this post, I will summarize the attempt, give a potted biography of Routh, and present links to Routh’s volumunous writings on social media (and his one book). I will then summarize Routh’s political affiliations (all over the map), ask some obvious questions about the assassination attempt, consider whether “stochastic terrorism” provides an adequate account and tug on some loose ends, and conclude. Caveat: A lot of what follows, and especially the section on Routh’s writing, is digital evidence from social media. I’ve done my best to vet it, but — putting on my tinfoil hat, here — that would be hard to do with a truly professional product. One oddity is that the previous would-be Trump assassin, Thomas Crooks, had virtually no social media presence and encrypted his communications. Routh, by constrast, is garrulous to the point of logorrhea. Introvert vs. extrovert, perhaps.

Routh’s Attempt

CNN provides an excellent timeline of the shooting:

  • Gunshots during golf: Trump was moving between holes five and six at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach with donor Steve Witkoff when gunshots went off. The golf game was a last-minute addition to Trump’s schedule, sources said.
  • Secret Service spots a rifle: A Secret Service agent spotted a rifle barrel sticking out of a fence and agents fired at a man in the bushes along the perimeter, according to Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw. Bradshaw said his office was alerted at 1:30 p.m. ET that the Secret Service had fired gunshots. The person was 300 to 500 yards away from Trump, an official said. The suspect then fled in a car.
  • Witness spots a man in the bushes: A witness saw the suspect run from the bushes and took a picture of his car that led to the suspect’s apprehension.
  • Highway chase: Police flooded Interstate 95 before stopping the suspect’s car and detaining him. The suspect was not armed when law enforcement officials took him out of the car, and he has not made any statements. The person in custody is Routh, according to three law enforcement sources.
  • Evidence found in bushes: Law enforcement officials found an AK-47-style rifle with a scope; two backpacks that had ceramic tiles in them to augment a bulletproof vest; and a GoPro where the suspect was positioned. “This whole set-up indicates a very high level of pre-planning,” former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe told CNN.
  • Mental health assessment: Investigators expect a federal court in South Florida will require “a mental health assessment” of Routh before any possible criminal proceedings, a law enforcement source told CNN.

CNN’s account tallies with the rest of my reading.

Routh’s Biography

We know more about Routh’s criminal record (below) and exploits in Ukraine (further below) than we know about the (at the point very disputed) rest of his life. From AP:

Records show Routh, 58, lived in North Carolina for most of his life before moving in 2018 to Kaaawa, Hawaii, where he and his son operated a company building sheds, according to an archived version of the webpage for the business.

(From memory, Routh’s business was on land owned by his girlfriend; from Hawaii he also ran at least one under-5K GoFundMe for Ukraine.) In Routh’s younger days:

That was a sharp departure from a younger Routh, profiled in the same newspaper in 1991 for his assistance in helping defend a woman against an alleged rapist. Routh, then 25, was wearing a coat and tie in a large photo accompanying the story. He was dubbed a “super citizen” and awarded a Law Enforcement Oscar by the Greensboro chapter of the International Union of Police Associations. The headline on the story: “Crimefighting pays.”

Subsequently, Routh accumulated quite a criminal record. From NBC:

Court records show more than 100 criminal counts have been filed against Ryan Routh in North Carolina, most in Guilford County, which underlies Greensboro. The exact outcome of each case was not immediately clear.

Records also show convictions for carrying a concealed weapon, possession of stolen property and hit-and-run. In those cases, which included misdemeanor convictions for violations such as resisting an officer and driving on a suspended license, the defendant received a suspended sentence and parole or probation. In 2002, court records show, he was convicted of possessing a weapon of mass destruction — a machine gun.

When I hear “WMD,” I think atomic or bio-weapons, not mere machine guns (more on that arrest here). So that comes as a bit of a relief.

Routh’s Writings

Once again, much of what follows is from social media, and hence of dubious provenance (and the new technique of providing a scrolling video of a social media account doesn’t do much for me either, unless it’s the quickest way to record the data before the platform pulls the account being recorded).

For the record! And your perusal….

Twitter:

Note that Routh’s impression numbers seem pretty large.

Facebook:

LinkedIn:

Google (Routh’s business):

Routh’s phone message:

Routh’s book, Unwinnable War (of which more later):

Routh’s Political Affiliations

All tribes, whether Blue, Red, or Ukro-Nazi are trying to say “He’s not one of us!”

Routh was a Democrat donor. From the Daily Mail:

[Routh] is a registered Democrat and donated 19 times between September 2019 and March 2020 to the Democratic political action committee ActBlue, Federal Election Commission filings revealed.

The donations totaled more than $140 and were earmarked for individual 2020 Democratic presidential primary candidates including Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

(The mail calls the number of times Routh donated “extraordinary.” 19 over three candidates? I don’t think so.)

AP writes:

Routh’s politics, meanwhile, don’t appear consistently aligned to one party or the other.

In June 2020, he offered a posted on X directed at then-President Trump to say he would win reelection if he issued an executive order for the Justice Department to prosecute police misconduct. That year, he also posted in support of the Democratic presidential campaign of then-U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, who has since left the party and endorsed Trump.

But:

Ryan Routh’s political support evolved from Trump in 2016 to Gabbard in 2020, then Ramaswamy and Haley in 2024.

The salient feature of Routh’s political life, recently, seems to have been support for Ukraine. Aggregator Ukrainska Pravda summarizes CNN:

[Routh] had expressed support for Ukraine on social media following Russia’s invasion. Quote from CNN: “Ryan Wesley Routh, who authorities suspect was planning to attack former President Donald Trump as he played a round of golf, expressed strong support for Ukraine in dozens of posts on X in 2022, saying he was willing to die in the fight and that ‘we need to burn the Kremlin to the ground’.” Details: Routh had encouraged foreigners, through Facebook, to join the war [on Ukraine’s side – ed.]. CNN added that Routh referred to himself as an “off-the-books liaison” of the Ukrainian government and encouraged soldiers from Afghanistan to fight for Ukraine.

Having summarized the state of play, let’s start pulling at the loose ends!

Questions and Loose Ends

(1) How did Routh get the gun?

I am nothing like an expert in America’s admittedly porous gun laws. It does seem to me, however, that a person like Routh, with multiple criminal counts and several convictions, one for possessing a machine gun (!) was a less than ideal canidate for membership in a well-regulated militia (though to be fair, that seems to be what he wanted to do in Ukraine, whether he did so or not). So how did Routh get the gun? Amazon? A gun-show? DId he find it under a toadstool? UPDATE The same question goes for the car. Who’s was it? His? Family or friend’s?

(2) How did Routh know Trump would be on the course?

From AP:

Trump’s plans to golf Sunday were not part of any public schedule, on days he is not campaigning, he can often be found golfing at one of his courses. Trump International Golf Club, West Palm Beach, about a 10-minute drive from his Mar-a-Lago residence, is a favorite.

So how did Routh know to find Trump at that place and time? It makes no sense that he set himself up with the weaponry, the ceramics, and a GoPro, on the off-chance that Trump might appear in his sights.

(3) How did Routh plan the assassination from out of state?

Trump grew up in North Carolina, lived in Hawaii, and then (to guess at his itinerary, which we don’t know either) flew to Miami to assassinate Trump. Not cheap, and not something to do on a whim). From the Daily Mail:

[Politico’s Neil] Caputo says that what’s bedeviled both observers and authorities is how Routh – who moved from North Carolina to Hawaii in the 2010s – was able to plot this from out of state.

‘The question no one’s able to answer yet and hopefully will be answered: the alleged assassin appeared to have been from out of state. How did he drive down there? How did he case the joint? How did he know when the former president would be there and come within his potential line of sight?’

(3) How Ukro-Nazi adjacent was Routh?

Certainly Routh was Ukraine, but whether he was effective at anything other than getting our creduous Western press to quote him is unknown. From the Daily Mail:

[Routh] posted video of himself in Ukraine in 2022 as he worked to recruit foreign fighters.

Routh, who had no military experience, outlined his plan to recruit fighters by moving Afghan soldiers, in some cases illegally from Pakistan and Iran to Ukraine. At the time he said dozens had expressed interest.

Routh was so dedicated to Ukraine he cut grass at Independence Square in Kyiv using scissors.

‘The question as far as why I’m here — to me, a lot of the other conflicts are grey, but this conflict is definitely black and white,’ Routh explained.

‘This is about good versus evil. This is a storybook, you know, any movie we’ve ever watched, this is definitely evil against good.

‘My original goal was to come and fight. All of us, from the entire planet, should be motivated to support the Ukrainian army, but I’m 56 years old and have no military experience, so I’m not an ideal candidate to actually fight.

‘So plan B was to come to Kiev and promote the idea of ​​many others coming to join the International Legion. We need thousands of people here to fight alongside the Ukrainians.’

It is unclear how successful Routh’s recruitment drive might have been, but at least one former Afghan soldier told the Times he had been contacted by him and expressed an interested in fighting if it meant getting out of Iran.

(Routh was also quoted in Newsweek Romania and Semafor, besides the Times.) Routh may not have been effective because Ukraine volunteer efforts were an omnishambles (and too much of a snakepit for me to sort. Please correct any errors in what follows.) From the New York Times;

Now, after a year of combat, many of these homespun groups of volunteers are fighting with themselves and undermining the war effort. Some have wasted money or stolen valor. Others have cloaked themselves in charity while also trying to profit off the war, records show.

Routh did manage to get himself into an Azov video. See at 1:50:

(This video has been promoted by some as from Blackstone.)

And then there’s the International Legion. From the Grayzone:

Back in 2022, Routh reportedly traveled to Ukraine to recruit for the International Legion. According to Newsweek Romania, which interviewed Routh in 2022, the American resident of Hawaii hoped to fight as a volunteer alongside the Ukrainian army, but was too old at age 56.

“So plan B,” Routh said, “was to come to Kiev and promote the idea of many others coming to join the International Legion. We need thousands of people here to fight alongside Ukrainians.

The International Legion appears to have had an Azov component in the Maidan Era (2014), but the volunteers from 2022 onwards appear to be less vehement in their ideological convictions. FWIW, at least one International Legiion spokesperson, King Jack Strong (love the moniker), disowned Routh as of June 21 of this year:

Warning about Ryan Routh: he is not, and never has been, associated with the International Legion or the Ukrainian Armed Forces at all. He is not, & never has been, a legion recruiter. He is misrepresenting himself and lying to many people.

(Of course, Strong would disavow Routh, but in June?) Then again, here is Routh being interviewed by the Times in 2023:

In the interview, Mr. Routh said he was in Washington to meet with the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, known as the Helsinki Commission “for two hours” to help push for more support for Ukraine. The commission is led by members of Congress and staffed by congressional aides. It is influential on matters of democracy and security and has been vocal in supporting Ukraine.

The Helsinki Commission had Paul Massaro as its staff director. Here is Massaro with an Azov flag:

(4) How spook adjacent was Routh?

Ed Snowden comments:

Routh should already have been on somebody’s list for the machine gun conviction. It’s very hard for me to believe that Routh could have run around Ukraine raising money, talking to the Times, Semafor, and Newsweek Romania, attempting to recruit foreign fighters, and ingratiating himself with various “volunteer” organizations, without getting on some sort of spook’s list (since Ukraine is, after all, crawling with spooks). So Snowden’s careful placing of the burden of proof — “zero contact” — is appropriate, and I don’t think our our organs of state security will be able to meet it.

(I have seen two sighting shots for Routh’s handler, if any: One is for Soo Kim, late of the CIA, now of RAND, but the screenshot purporting to link them does not show Routh’s account); the second is for Malcolm Nance, which would make me happy, but the nexus seems to be that they were both quoted in the same New York Times story.)

(5) Why the continually loose and sloppy protection for one Presidential candidate?

From AP:

Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw noted at a briefing that because Trump is no longer in office, security protocols around the course had loosened.

“He’s not the sitting president. If he was, we would have had this entire golf course surrounded. But because he’s not, his security is limited to the areas that the Secret Service deems possible,” he told reporters.

Trump almost got whacked once, and we can’t offer the guy decent protection because of some bureaucratic imperative? Maybe the Biden Administration’s Secret Service should hustle their lame ducks along on this, before Trump gets shot at again (or RFK, heaven forfend). Congress wants answers, and so they should.

Is this Trump Assasination a Case of Stochastic Terrorism?

Here is the definition of stochastic terrorism. From Wikipedia (sorry):

In 2002, the term was first used by Gordon Woo to describe a process to quantify risk of a terrorist attack.

Credit for defining the term has also been given to the blogger, G2geek, on the Daily Kos platform in 2011, when defining it as “the use of mass communications to stir up random lone wolves to carry out violent or terrorist acts that are statistically predictable but individually unpredictable”, with plausible deniability for those creating media messaging.

As of 2016, “stochastic terrorism” was an “obscure” academic term according to professor David S. Cohen. During an August 9, 2016 campaign rally, then-candidate Donald Trump remarked “If [Hillary Clinton] gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is. I don’t know.” These comments were widely condemned as instigating violence, and described by Cohen as “stochastic terrorism”, further popularizing the term. Trump has continued to be criticized as inspiring violence.

If that is the game Trump played, then two can play, apparently, and some more successfully than others:

“I probably took a bullet to the head because of the things that they say about me. They talk about democracy. I’m a threat to democracy. They’re the threat to democracy,” Trump said, “with the fake Russia-Russia-Russia investigation that went nowhere.”

If hate can be said to instigate stochastic terrorism, then Routh has it for Trump. In his book, he writes:

In a section of the book focused on Iran, the author said he “must take part of the blame” for electing a “brainless” president, in an apparent reference to Trump. “You are free to assassinate Trump as well as me for that error in judgment and the dismantling of the deal,” the book declares.

Routh’s son agrees with the hate, but not the stochastics. From the Daily Mail:

[Routh’s son, Oran Routh] said his father hates Trump as ‘every reasonable person does.

‘I don’t like Trump either,’ the son added [neither do I!]

But he said his dad is not a violent person and couldn’t believe his father would target the president.

But when “democracy is on the ballot,” perhaps extreme measures are justified:

And some may suggest the location where such measures are taken:

(Although it’s hard for me to believe that one could meet put Azovs on the side of democracy and also J6ers on the side of fascism, stranger things have happened.)

Conclusion

The questions I’ve raised — and others — need to be answered. From Unherd:

Without any serious attempt to answer these questions, there is a risk that public sentiment, already stirred in a cauldron of cynicism and mistrust online, will drift towards conspiracy theory. But even more dangerous are the implications of brushing aside assassination attempts on a former president. A precedent is being set where political violence against a candidate who is not merely disfavoured but who has been positioned by the media as an imminent threat to American democracy itself is met with a collective shrug. That might be the most alarming aspect of all.

Then again, it’s not clear that whoever’s running “our democracy” is in the mood to answer questions just now. From an anonymous source well known to us, immediately after this assassination attempt:

The superdelegate was out in his yard. I went right over and engaged him on the news. Long discussion – and he was being a bit cagey [but paraphrasing]. There are those who believe that Trump must never be allowed near the White House. They are very suspicious that he actually has some very telling and career-ending intel on multiple figures – and that may be what the Mar-a-Lago thing was all about. The unsaid but very heavily implied feeling was they will continue to resort to eliminating him in any way possible. The guy today was some kind of “Ukraine spook.”

Well, “some kind” covers a lot of ground (see above). But as we have often said: Given what the Democrats believe about Trump, they cannot possibly allow him to take office. So expect continued volatility.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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160 comments

      1. Revenant

        Subediting (or interrupting your Philip K Dick moment):

        “Trump grew up in North Carolina, lived in Hawaii, and then (to guess at his itinerary, which we don’t know either) flew to Miami to assassinate Trump.” is overtrumped. Which is bad in bridge.

          1. none

            I still see the error there and was going to flag it myself. I think there is some cache flush thing you have to do to make sure it goes out. Yves posted something about that a while back.

  3. ex-PFC Chuck

    From the absence of text it appears we don’t know doodlysquat about the 2nd attempt (that we know of) on Donald Trump’s life.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Nah! The problem is that everything is so hush-hush right now that the article had to be printed with white text on the white background.

      Seriously the title is serving as a place holder until Lambert finishes his research which would be extensive. It is easier that way and NC has to do this from time to time.

      1. NYMutza

        One thing we can be sure of is that the Biden administration won’t be doing much of an investigation. Just another depraved lone gunman.

  6. TomDority

    I think it awful that the use of violence …. any use of violence in politics is/are acts delusional. Acts demented. Acts coward and etc.
    Odd that after first attempt that the ire came down upon the Secret service/FBI for lapses but, and it could be that I have been away from the media for some time, I heard no denouncement from Trump about violence in politics. Of course, Jan 6 was ‘peaceful’ and Trump had nothing to do with it. Of course the bomb threats in Springfield over disproved Jamaican acts were solely because of a false story and, of course, not because Trump repeated same at debate. I thought a condition of his bail was not to talk up or instigate this sort of thing.
    Second time – still no denunciation by Trump of violence in politics.
    Both times served to improve Trump status as some brave soul….bone spurs was it.
    Knocking service men… to me, bombastic bluster and promoting fear of others, mean spirit, presentation of toughness and false bravery are the sure sign of cowardice.
    As Trump is motivated only for self – a true narcissist and egoist defending a cowardly inner.
    With all these conspiracy theory and fake news it could lead me to believe that maybe the second time was just a test of the readiness of new security, a validation run .. pushing for better coordination between Secret Service, FBI and local law enforcement with a hint of the military coming in Marshal Law style.
    Were real live fire employed? Was this a test? Did Trump request this as a test to bump his numbers?
    I, of course, am speculating and have absolutely no credible information. I hope I can be excused for speculating…..but, in my defence, I did see a former President and current presidential candidate proclaim Jamaicans are coming over here to eat your dogs or some such.

    2. IM Doc

      My very first patient of the day was a 25 year old Type I DM. He works part time as a waiter. A blue collar type young kid.

      He was apparently at a catering event yesterday for a local women’s group – all PMC types. He tells me that when the news came forth by someone’s cell phone or whatever that Trump had been shot – the audience erupted into raptured applause. He and his fellow wait staff found the entire thing very creepy. A few minutes later, news came forth that Trump was fine – and the guffaws were audible – and he reports that everyone there was really cranky for the rest of the time.

      “Doc, I voted for Biden the last time – but I will be damned if I will tie my fate into a group with such psychos” “What are these people smoking?”

      All I can say – What have we done to ourselves? How is this even remotely OK? And then to blame the person being shot at? What has happened to my Dem party?

      1. Janeway

        One of my more TDS infected (even moreso than TomDority apparently) acquaintances from college tweeted out that Trump was shot and likely dead within minutes of the news hitting the wire. I only looked at his post only briefly as I scrolled along my feed but I know his response was automatic, he didn’t bother to look any further into it before reflexively responding. He eventually took it down, but I’m sure there are millions like him.

        1. CA

          “One of my more TDS infected (even more so than TomDority apparently) acquaintances…”

          Thank you so much; I found the comment in question to be terrifyingly immoral.

      2. RobertNW

        The perception of personality. Taught to hate. So “Holy Assassination” is A-OK, just like “Holy Censorship” and “Holy War.” Forgetting, of course, that it becomes a two-way street.

        1. JBird4049

          Like the proverb “what’s good (or sauce) for the geese is good (or sauce) for the gander?”

          Going by memory, we have had at least twelve attempts to assassinate current and former presidents with two resulting in injury and four of them being successful. Aside from Abraham Lincoln, there does not appear to have been any general happiness at the attempts, but since it was the result of a civil war with its one million dead, that last is understandable. That is what is scary to me, more than the attempts.

          I agree with other commentators. Some people just don’t appear to think about consequences.

          1. Swamp Yankee

            JBird4049,

            I’m not sure if I’m understanding you correctly re: Lincoln, the Civil War, and Lincoln’s assassination. You write: “Aside from Abraham Lincoln, there does not appear to have been any general happiness at the attempts, but since it was the result of a civil war with its one million dead, that last is understandable. That is what is scary to me, more than the attempts.”

            I find this hard to follow; could you explain a bit what you mean here about the assassination of Lincoln? Thanks.

            I’d also note as a factual matter that total deaths in the Civil War were about 750,000, and that the War of Rebellion was initiated by the South Carolinian attack on Fort Sumter, in defiance of the lawfully constituted authority of the Union.

            1. JBird4049

              I wanted to make the connections to the only previous time that a president’s death being well received. Some people were happy Lincoln was assassinated being as they blame him for their suffering. I certainly agree that the Confederacy started the war.

              On the deaths, 750,000 was the accepted number, but about fifteen years ago, there was some more research on the casualties from the war. Some researchers noticed the unusually heavy epidemics that occurred across the country, which had not been tied directly, or at least the research needed not done, to the war aside from the deaths from disease in both militaries; if you add the additional deaths, you get roughly one million deaths. I guess the increase was partially hidden as it was multiple epidemics from multiple different diseases in multiple areas over the entire war.

              As I have mentioned the university study before, I really need to find it again, bookmark, and reread it.

              1. Swamp Yankee

                JBird4049,

                Thanks for your response, I appreciate it. I definitely would be interested in seeing the epidemics study, I believe I may have heard of it distantly, now that I remember back to the 2010 or so period, and I do think it makes good sense — sometimes sight can be lost of to what vast extent the Civil War involved mass movement of people on a continental scale, so it definitely makes sense that the epidemics which accompanied it would also be responsible for thousands of deaths.

                And yes, while people certainly were elated across the South and in certain parts of Border States about the death of Lincoln, the reaction across the North was shock and horror on the scale of September 11th or JFK or Pearl Harbor; as one colleague put it, Lincoln was shot on Good Friday, and every minister in the North had the topic for his Easter Sunday sermon.

                The freedpeople and free black population likewise had reason to mourn Lincoln, of course.

                Like the war itself, the death of Lincoln was a product of deep, fratricidal division, and was reacted to in extremely different ways depending upon who and where we are talking about; in my personal view, it is one of the greatest tragedies of American history. We might be a different country if Lincoln had lived.

          1. flora

            Going along to get along with one’s chosen/aspired to class without much thought in order to say I’m part of the PMC. I do the right PMC things. The PMC brunch.
            Everyone should wave like this because someone will be watching. / ;) my 2 cents

        2. CanCyn

          It’s hilarious to me that she thinks ‘turning the page’ is a good slogan. AFAIK, the Democrats are the ones on the White House, no? Donald Trumps isn’t in office, no pages to turn there.
          And yes she does sound a bit like Hilary.

      4. Pat

        IM Doc, I would say the answer to your question is that there was a long term hostile takeover of the party that began when Reagan was elected and hit full speed with the Clintons.
        Oh and you missed where it became accepted that only those that are true blue approved members of the club can be victims. I don’t think that all the bowing and scraping Sanders has done has yet removed he lies that he is antisemitic and lied about being part of the Civil Rights movement, so Hillary Clinton is still clearly his victim.

      5. The Rev Kev

        Saw a video lat night with this young girl talking about all the social media accounts where people were frustrated that Trump survived this second attempt and raged at the shooter for not doing his job. Some were saying just give me a gun and I’ll do it myself.

    3. Lee

      “I think it awful that the use of violence …. any use of violence in politics is/are acts delusional. Acts demented. Acts coward and etc.”

      The U.S. is a preeminent author of political violence and other forms of skullduggery on a global scale. I see this as just another instance of imperial chickens coming home to roost.

      1. Joe Renter

        I was thinking the same, political violence is okay to use in other countries if it is in line with our objectives.
        2025 might be a very dangerous year.

        1. The Rev Kev

          I had assumed that these blowback events would be from Ukrainians themselves but this guy was only Ukrainian influenced while being American born and bred. Ten years ago I bet that that guy could not find the Ukraine on a map.

    4. Dr. John Carpenter

      Good thing you clarified that you were against political violence, because the rest of your post sure reads like excuses and justification for political violence.

  7. VTDigger

    The twits I have seen show a mid 50s blue voter (since 2019) with a long wrap sheet of minor misdemeanors who was cited in the NYT last year for supporting some weird effort to recruit Jihadists to go fight in Afghanistan. A bit of a known quantity.
    Strange that the SS saw him, missed their shots, and he was able to make it halfway up i95 to Jacksonville before they caught him.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      See questions (3) and (4) on motive. Nothing different from what I wrote. This was new, though:

      Remus Cernea, a Newsweek journalist based in Romania, said he knew Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, from their time spent in Ukraine and once considered him a friend.

      Cernea described a “child like” misfit who he said rarely spoke about U.S. politics indicated he would “die for Ukraine”.

      That rings true; the flake aspect (“Routh was so dedicated to Ukraine he cut grass at Independence Square in Kyiv using scissors”).

      But planning the trip and the mechanics of the hit… That’s not “child like” at all. Like his “super citizen” award early in life; then the machine gun conviction. What’s going on there?!

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        And from the same article, this:

        Martin County Sheriff Will Snyder said it took about two miles for his officers to surround the vehicle of Ryan Wesley Routh and force him to a stop, but that Routh was “smart” and “was just driving with the flow of traffic.”

        “I think he may have thought he got away with it,” Snyder said during a Monday morning press conference. “Of course he wouldn’t have known there was a witness who really did the right thing, took a picture of him, took a picture of the tag. He was just going to drive himself back to wherever he came from.”

        I may have read too many police procedurals, but I for one would have liked to know “wherever he came from” (and who was there). I think Harry Bosch would have followed him, not arrested him. After all, they can arrest him further on up the road….

        1. lyman alpha blob

          Indeed. And I posted the link before you had fleshed things out. Early this morning the articles I saw didn’t identify the shooter at all and the one I posted above was the first that did.

          I’m sure there will be more to come, but this guy definitely seems like a spook-adjacent useful idiot type to me based on what we’ve seen so far.

          Not sure what to think about the lack of any interwebs presence by Crooks and then this guy being all over the place, including having been interviewed by establishment media sources.

          1. lyman alpha blob

            On the one hand I’d thought maybe the good Samaritan threw a wrench in the works by photographing the license plate, which didn’t allow the shooter to get back to “wherever he came from”, allowing him to be ID’ed and his internet presence to be recorded. But then the thought occurs, if he were part of a larger plot, why not scrape his internet presence ahead of time. But then I remember watching Burn After Reading and the distinct possibility that the spooks aren’t all that smart and well organized as they’d like you to think they are.

            Feels like the pieces will come together more if we ever find out how he knew Trump would be on that golf course.

            1. Bsn

              Good, and this is true “the spooks aren’t all that smart and well organized as they’d like you to think they are.”
              The problem is, they don’t have to be smart or organized. No one is even close to being fired or even put in jail for the 1st assassination attempt. No heads have rolled and none will. So, as Alfred E Newman would say “What, me worry?”

              1. Expat2uruguay

                No one is even close to being fired or even put in jail for the 1st assassination attempt.

                I thought the head of the presidential protection team resigned over it, didn’t she?

        2. Ignacio

          Yep, almost certainly a keen detective (Harry Bosch) would have done what you say. That was exactly my immediate thinking while reading your comment. Though most probably the procedures are different when you are pursuing a would-like-to-kill-a-presidential-candidate rather than a, for instance, potential killer of prostitutes.

      2. MFB

        Being made to cut grass with scissors is an old military thing, combining punishment with discipline and commitment. It doesn’t really get the grass cut, though.

      1. paul

        Be more careful,
        A ton of coal and a few thousand gallons of fresh water will be required for the AI thing to relearn your correction.

  12. Tom Stone

    A few points.
    1) Illegal possession of a Machine Gun is a Federal crime punishable by a $25K fine and 10 years in the Federal Penitentiary.
    2) Where did he get the Gun?
    There are, at a minimum, tens of millions of Guns on the US Black Market, many of them stolen.
    Routh had contacts, which are not hard to find if you have “Fought in Ukraine”.
    3) Routh was armed with an “AK Type Weapon”, unless it was a Dragunov in .308 or 7.62X 54 MM it would be a poor choice for two reasons.
    AK’s are not noted for accuracy and the 7.62X39 MM round has an maximum effective range on a Man sized target of about 350 Meters.
    As noted by Lambert the most intriguing question is “Where did he get his Intelligence?” as this was not a scheduled appearance.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Routh had contacts, which are not hard to find if you have “Fought in Ukraine”.

      Well sure. But that’s what I want nailed down (that is the “under the toadstool” part). Presumbly he didn’t check the gun with his baggage on the flight from Hawaii. So he bought or acquired it, close to the date, in North Carolina or Florida, or had it cached somewhere.

    2. doug

      I heard on the news that the place Routh was hiding is often used by photographers hoping for a picture of the former president. That doesn’t explain how he figured out to be there; and to be there when he was.

    3. ciroc

      The photo shows that the weapon used by the sniper was not an AK-47, but a Chinese-made SKS with a detachable magazine. It can be legally owned in every state in the US and is preferred by one-man militias because it is cheaper and more robust than the AR-15. From the reviews I’ve seen, there are individual differences in accuracy from rifle to rifle, but if you were planning to fire several rounds instead of just one to kill it, it wouldn’t have been such a bad choice.

      2. Joker

        LOL. It seems that in USA every rifle is an assault rifle, and everything with a curved magazine is an AK-47 by default.

    4. Susan the other

      This entire story drips with Oswald. And the AK47 is puzzling. – did Routh plan to kill the entire foursome? Al Capone style. I’m wondering if anybody bothered to check the other side of the fairway to see where the real assassin might have nested. This is like psychological terrorism to reign Trump in because (imo) the deep state has “6ways from Sunday” to kill him with extreme subtly.

    5. scott s.

      Based on the “weapon of mass destruction” language, that conviction would appear to be from NC state law (class I felony), not federal law. A Hawaii resident can only legally obtain a firearm by first procuring a “permit to acquire”. Getting a permit in HI involves more detailed check than the federal NICS (you must submit fingerprints and also enroll in FBI “rap-back” database). It is legal for non-resident to buy/transfer a long gun in person from a licensee (FFL) at the licensed premises but FFL must ensure possession is legal in resident’s state, which I doubt any FFL would risk for HI resident. It is illegal for non-licensee to transfer to out of state resident. I doubt many would sell without at least seeing a DL, though I suppose it’s possible.

      Agree with previous poster the “AK” looks more like an SKS. At one time these came in by the truck load and were considered curios or relics (when I was living in CA you could “cash and carry” with no DROS/waiting period). As other poster suggested 7.62×39 not the best long range cartridge out there. Cost, though is good.

    6. Tom Doak

      Judging from the map of the golf course presented, he was about 350 yards away from Trump when the secret service officer spied him. Trump would have been a bit closer than that while playing the previous hole. But the shooter was waiting for him to play down the next fairway, when he would have been only about 100-150 yards away, and an easy target.

      1. John k

        Very interesting. And this was foiled by the ss guy seeing a barrel sticking out of the bushes. Wonder if that guy gets promoted or demoted?

      2. Balan Aroxdale

        The most amazing part of this story is that, 2 months out from the election, Trump still has time to play rounds of golf.

  13. Dr. John Carpenter

    I never thought I see the Dems go so far in emulating the Republicans that it would be their heated rhetoric inspiring their deranged militaristic supporters to take a literal shot at the other team’s guy, but I guess I shouldn’t be surprised about it either. I suppose it’s only going to get worse from here, unfortunately.

  14. Tom Stone

    The people I have met who believe Trump should be stopped “At any cost” are people who have never witnessed or experienced extreme violence.
    They also assume that there will be no adverse consequences for themselves or those they care about.
    Which once again proves that, as a species, Humans are dumber than slime mold.

    1. Randall Flagg

      >The people I have met who believe Trump should be stopped “At any cost” are people who have never witnessed or experienced extreme violence.
      They also assume that there will be no adverse consequences for themselves or those they care about.
      Which once again proves that, as a species, Humans are dumber than slime mold.

      Your comment may go far in explaining why half these nitwits think it’s a great idea to go to war with Russia. Completely forgetting that the two oceans on each side of us ( and numerous other falsehoods) now provide zero defense of our country in this day and age. It’s all fun and games until a nuclear strike puts an eye out…

  15. Michael Hudson

    So the question is:
    Was the would-be recruiter of Islamic terrorists to fight alongside Ukrainian terrorists himself recruited to act as a terrorist?
    If so, would the CIA and NSA be more willing to reveal what’s in their files than they have been to release information on other US-sponsored terrorists since Alan Dulles’s regime?

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      Sure. I’m not clear that Routh actually recruited anybody, though. But he presented as such a flake (I cut the part about dying his hair blue and yellow) that maybe he was a honeypot — anybody stupid enough to fall for the pitch fell into a deep hole. Joking! Kinda.

    2. David in Friday Harbor

      I find it extremely troubling that an ex-con who is published in the NYTimes trying to recruit ex-Afghan soldiers to fight Russia had no trouble traveling to Ukraine, but (admittedly ex-con) former Army weapons inspector Scott Ritter gets dragged off of a plane and has his passport confiscated when he tries to go to a peace conference in Russia. I have a great deal of respect for Ed Snowden and I agree that it’s hard to believe that the 3-letter crowd didn’t have this clown on their radar.

      I’m also quite troubled that this unhinged ex-con was able to get his hands on a scoped Kalashnikov and hide in the bushes next to a golf course an ex-President was known to frequent. He could have been waiting there for days. Given the daily reports in my local tabloid media of kids and nuts running around discharging firearms willy-nilly, the only surprise is that this doesn’t happen more often…

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > a scoped Kalashnikov and hide in the bushes next to a golf course an ex-President was known to frequent. He could have been waiting there for days.

        Had himself a little dugout. Maybe he learned to dig in the trenches of the Donbas. Interesting theory! (Then again, if the spot was known to a place for photographers to get, er., a shot of the President, perhaps dangerous?)

        Are we sure it was a Kalishnikov?

        1. David in Friday Harbor

          USAToday reports that the “AK-47-style” rifle in photos was a likely “sporting” version of the semi-automatic SKS rifle, a close relative of the AK-47 Kalashnikov that fires the same 7.62 round.

        2. David in Friday Harbor

          Wikipedia reports that, “Between 1988 and 1998, several million SKS carbines exported from China and the former Soviet Union were sold on the commercial market in the US,” and went for as little as $70. There are unregulated “Gun Shows” all over Florida that do not require ID or background checks for “private” sales under state law.

          So comforting to know…

        3. The Rev Kev

          Still did the amateur thing and had his rifle sticking out a bush. That is like a sniper sticking his rifle out of a window. They don’t do it so that they are not spotted. They shoot from well inside the room so this guy should have taken a position well inside the bushes with a clear field of view for when Trump finally ambled by. So my guess is that though he may have scouted the golf course via Google satellite views, did not scout his actual position until he was actually there and located himself.

            1. Permanent Sceptic

              The Wikipedia article you link to clearly states:

              “Đinđić had made many enemies domestically throughout his political career primarily because of his regard as being pro-Western and his hard-line policies on organized crime. Đinđić extradited Slobodan Milošević to the ICTY in 2001.[3]”

              So why would the CIA have hired professionals to have him assassinated? He seemed incredibly well aligned with American political goals in the region at the time.

              1. Lazar

                I posted the link for the sniper stuff (there is a map of the area, and photos of location/window). Everyting politics related from Wikipedia is CNN level crap, and I don’t bother reading it.

    3. Yves Smith

      I have not verified it, but Alexander Mercouris said in his talk on Monday that the Ukrainians didn’t think much of Routh and he was not effective in recruiting (and I infer fund raising). The fact that he got some interviews (Newsweek, FT) suggests that there may have been a dearth of similar recruiters, or alternatively, that the ones who were good were merc adjacent and did not want a public profile.

  16. East Dadeville

    The preoccupation with the Republican word weaver for President after the shooting suggests more pointed questions than who the attempted shooter is, questions about the Secret Service, and another round of lamentations about the lack of gun control.

    In his e-mails the word weaver the Republican word weaver candidate for president wrote on a fund-raising page, “Nothing will slow me down. I will NEVER SURRENDER.” Slow down from what? Campaigning on a golf course? Or is it simply indicating his public portrayal of his golf prowess? He’s routinly a self-prolaimed winner!

    “NEVER SURRENDER” is an interesting word selection. Is surrendering a synonym for withdrawing from the campaign which is intruding into his inner circle? Or is the choice of terms simply a wimpy battle cry?

    For those involved in election tactics, the word weaver remains more of a concern than that of the alleged assassin.

    2. Samuel Conner

      > “NEVER SURRENDER” is an interesting word selection.

      It admits of multiple interpretations. An example sympathetic interpretation is “never knuckle under to attempts to intimidate me (into withdrawing from the race)”

      An unsympathetic one might be “never acknowledge past or future election losses.”

      What the man himself meant is a mystery to me.

    3. bertl

      Anglicised Scottish term used routinely by descendants of the original plantations in Ireland which is still commonly used by Ulster Protestants today. And they haven’t. Trump probably heard his mother use it when she was advising him how to conduct his life when he was a kid.

      1. anahuna

        Found this in an American Conservative review of James Webb’s Born Fighting: “The cry “no surrender,” shouted by the Ulster Protestants to the besieging Catholic armies of the deposed King James II, typified the fierce determination of the Scots-Irish never to submit to a foe without a fight.”

        Borrowed valor?

  17. JBird4049

    Saagar Enjeti of Breaking Points made the observation that Ryan Routh does not appear to have had a job during his activities; somehow, in this economy, he has managed to get enough scratch to house, clothe, and feed himself, while flying to wars and buying expensive weapons.

    There is also the apparently light consequences for his “weapon of mass destruction,” which reminds me of Jeffrey Epstein. Stochastic terrorism, perhaps, but who is his sugar daddy? Here is to hoping that he does not commit “suicide” like Epstein or get Jack Ruby’d.

    1. Screwball

      I think that’s a great point. The old rule; follow the money. Seemed to be a lot of spending and traveling for someone who doesn’t seem rich.

    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      The lumpenproletariat live pretty cheap. I bet he did OK, in his own terms, with hustling in Ukraine.

      That said, the more professional the hit looks, the more I’d be inclined to look beyond “the lone gunman, acting alone.” Did he have help with the car and the gun? Did he fly direct to Miami, or did he have a “safe house” somewhere in NC and drove down? Was the gun and the scope really first class armament? How about the ceramics? Top grade, or el cheapo? Etc.

      1. lyman alpha blob

        A tidbit, albeit a vague one, from this article – https://www.npr.org/2024/09/16/nx-s1-5113917/trump-apparent-assassination-attempt-shooting-suspect

        “Routh, who was represented by a federal public defender, told federal judge Ryon McCabe that he has no savings to pay for his defense.”

        Does that mean no savings at all, or just not enough to cover what is likely to be a very hefty bill? Maybe untrue, maybe a grifting opportunity given the number of TDS infected who would likely contribute to his defense?

    1. Joe Renter

      My thoughts as well. Thank you Lambert. I just found out this info via the Duran and jumped over here. I distance myself from MSM for mental health concerns.

  19. Lefty Godot

    If Trump gets elected again (which may require a big turnout of his voters in the swing states), I would really worry that he might not make it to his second inauguration alive. The haters both in the government and among the deranged Twitterati rabble are so vehement that it seems unlikely they will let this go peacefully. We seem to be heading down the path of ancient Rome, with Marius, Sulla, and the Gracchi brothers, where peaceful transfer of power becomes unthinkable to the defeated opposition.

    Out of curiosity, does anything link Crooks to Routh? Or were there actions completely independent of each other?

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Out of curiosity, does anything link Crooks to Routh? Or were there actions completely independent of each other?

      The only putative link I’ve seen is the claim that both appeared in Blackrock videos. Crooks did, but the supposed Blackrock video for Routh is that one for Azov that I presented.

      Let me underline this:

      One oddity is that the previous would-be Trump assassin, Thomas Crooks, had virtually no social media presence and encrypted his communications. Routh, by constrast, is garrulous to the point of logorrhea. Introvert vs. extrovert, perhaps.

      Or not! The symmetry is so complete as to seem suspicious to me. It’s like A/B testing. Pure speculation!

      1. JBird4049

        Or not! The symmetry is so complete as to seem suspicious to me. It’s like A/B testing. Pure speculation!

        I am getting increasingly paranoid the older I get, but I still believe that often life just happens, especially in the current interesting times. It is probable to me that these shootings were caused by very deliberate, conscious creation of the circumstances, but it could be some random and crazy dude just deciding to take a shot. This is America after all. I can think of at least twelve attempts, four successful, at killing presidents in the past 160 years

        1. Lambert Strether Post author

          > but it could be some random and crazy dude just deciding to take a shot.

          Well, I remember a quote from John D. MacDonald that goes something like this: “The truly sly don’t rationalize coincidences. They slam doors.” One shooting? Maybe? Two? Third time could be the charn!

          1. John k

            We could be seeing mounting desperation. Even if deep had nothing to do with either attempt imo all this encourages more attempts from all concerned.
            Timing is everything. If Trump passes before the election we get Harris. If after we get Vance. Plus he will be far better protected as pres-elect… why, you’d probably have to be a protector to get close enough.

            1. Pat

              Trump being taken out before the election does not guarantee Harris getting elected. There could be some very real blowback, not just from the assassination itself but from the inevitable celebration by the true blue PMC crowd. And dare I say it the stupider of our media going on about how our country was saved will also not play well. Voting for the dead guy is not unheard of in America.

          2. The Rev Kev

            ‘Mr Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: ‘Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it’s enemy action’.’

            1. MFB

              Old Bond movies are starting to look like documentaries these days, with crazed amoral oligarchs trying to blow up the world. The only difference is that the James Bonds are all working for the oligarchs . . .

  20. Es s Ce tera

    Hopefully, someone in the OSINT world managed to X scrape Routh’s social network from the retweets and likes on his X account.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      Very unfortunately, all the accounts I found that archived Routh’s tweets did not archive his followers and who he followed; same for Facebook.

      If any reader finds that information, please share. (Some people put the tweets up on archive sites, but they just archive the page, they don’t follow the links out to other pages, sadly.)

      1. IM Doc

        This guy and his contacts

        https://x.com/Cancelcloco/status/1835513228560114015

        I saw a complete video of everyone the suspect followed on twitter last night – he shows parts of it in the video on this tweet – but if you dig a bit deeper in his timeline – he had a complete video of all the accounts being followed – at least last night –

        I know that I saw this on his timeline last night –
        I am just too busy right now to go through it – but the video on this tweet is interesting to say the least.

        1. Lambert Strether Post author

          I’ve seen screen captures that I think are from this account. I see a screen capture with this “Soo Kim” person at the bottom. But I don’t see Roush’s account name at the top. Assuming it’s a genuine screen grab from Twitter, how do I know the screen is from Roush’s account? Similarly, I’ve seen the table this guy runs of Roush’s putative arrest record. But Roush’s name isn’t on that either, which is why I didn’t include it. So how do I know the arrest record is Roush’s? Now, maybe there’s some sort of unique identifier that maps to Roush somewhere in the justice system. If so, the poster (and this guy) need to explain it.

          I’m all for citizen journalism, just like I’m all for citizen science, but this is just sloppy.

          UPDATE Seems like most of this video comes from sourcing provided here, which looks really interesting, but I’m still not seeing what I’m looking for with Soo Kim.

          It also seems crazty to me that Kim would be Roush’s first follower on Twitter. It’s an enormous red flag. It’s like George Smiley, handler, identifying himself to his asset with a giant red clown nose that lights up. Why do it?

  21. Alex Cox

    The alleged would-be assassin “lived most of his life” in Greensboro, NC. Perhaps not coincidentally, in the 1970s and 1980s Greensboro was a hotbed of American Nazi and Klan activities. There was a famous massacre there, in which Nazis, infiltrated by the FBI, killed a number of radicals on a march. Years later a Truth and Reconciliation Committee was formed to document the events.

  22. steppenwolf fetchit

    . . . ” There are those who believe that Trump must never be allowed near the White House. They are very suspicious that he actually has some very telling and career-ending intel on multiple figures – and that may be what the Mar-a-Lago thing was all about.” . . .

    I myself suspect that Ghislaine Maxwell herself does indeed have that sort of ” very telling and career-ending intel on multiple figures”. So how come she wasn’t Epsteined? Let alone outright-visibly murdered? I think because she found some way to put every bit of her intel into strong hands unknown to any Shallow Government or Deep State plumbers and she gave those strong hands instructions to release every bit of it in case something were to happen to her. And she made sure that the Shallow Government and the Deep State plumbers all know it. So they are forced to let her live.

    If Trump really has this sort of Epstein-Maxwell quallity of very telling and career-ending intel on even just a few figures, then he should find a way to get every bit of it into strong untraceable hands with instructions to release every bit of it if something were to happen to Trump. And then make sure that every possible Master-of-wet-workers knows what will happen if Trump gets the least bit wet-worked. That might reduce the chance of at least some of the fear-motivated assassination attempts against Trump.

    1. Screwball

      . . ” There are those who believe that Trump must never be allowed near the White House. They are very suspicious that he actually has some very telling and career-ending intel on multiple figures – and that may be what the Mar-a-Lago thing was all about.” . . .

      This is the interesting part IMO. Given what we know, this guy could be spook adjacent. But we don’t know. IF, in fact, Trump does have career-ending intel on multiple figures (and he might, as he seemed to know about Epstein (he likes them young I hear)), there is the motive to whack him. Just like they did Epstein (if true) and how Maxwell did what she did to keep herself alive as you put it.

      I can buy into that argument all day long, and that’s just the blackmail end of things. That doesn’t include all the harm so many claim he is going to do to America and their people – you know – the threat of democracy thing and project 2025. So there is plenty of people who want him out of the way, you might say.

      But, if that is the case, why do they keep missing? If they wanted him de*d, he would be de*d. That’s the part I can’t get past. So what is really going on? Are our spooks and assassins that inept?

      1. Pat

        If we didn’t have the growing mountain of evidence from the past decade that no longer having to fear any consequences has made much of our beltway and deep state both inept and stupid, I might agree with you. But we do.

        1. Screwball

          And you might be right. We see ineptness each and every day.

          What a world. Best to all, this won’t end well.

      2. Lambert Strether Post author

        > this guy could be spook adjacent

        Routh is definitely spook-adjacent. The issue is whether there’s a handler/asset relationship. I’m perfectly willing to believe that Routh is an asset of some spook handler. But that remains to be proved. And there’s rather a lot of hand-waving going on just now.

        It seems to me that the fundamental contradiction is between Routh’s “child-like” persona, and the planning that went into the assassination. The more professional — i.e., not at all child-like — that planning looks, the more I’ll be willing to believe he’s an asset; someone with more hard skills than cutting Ukrainian grass with scissors. (That planning would include living beyond his means too; that’s another issue that needs more evidence, IMNSHO).

      3. John k

        Apparently the last guy got pretty close, was seen by many including (ss?) slippers on a rooftop, and allowed to get set and shoot. Nothing was done until after several shots were fired… isn’t that the perfect scenario? Get the job done than take him out. It does seem that a cop peeking over the edge got Crooke to hurry his shots, and if so probably saved trump’s life, course the ss shooter didn’t know that. It also seems even if deems/deep weren’t involved trump did not receive the best/brightest protectors.
        This latest seems more amateurish. And lower level incompetence is a fab defense for the bosses.

        1. Lambert Strether Post author

          > lower level incompetence is a fab defense for the bosses.

          Correct. And if you want a project to fail, make sure you put incompetents in charge, deny the project resources, f*ck up the chain of command, foment factional conflict…. Oh wait, that all happened in Butler, didn’t it?

          Then again, the usual question: “Stupid or evil?” Or as LeCarré puts it more pointedly, “F*ck-up or conspiracy?” Because much of the country runs just like the Secret Service’s project in Butler.

          Maybe LIHOP is a function of imperial decline, who know. Optimize for looting first, and after that for ruling class protection (“Nobody could have predicted…”).

    2. Terry Flynn

      Didn’t work for Robert Maxwell (father of Ghislaine). He was a lot cleverer than Trump.

      So I reckon Trump has nothing actionable but simply has idiot enemies.

    3. Pat

      Unfortunately for Trump his entire experience base makes him finding such a safe space to hold the intel nearly impossible. Whereas pretty much from birth Ghislaine got to know the players, and daddy’s lists alone might give her some possibles. (Remembering how long he was protected and how long it took to grab her, I would bet she knows exactly who was supposed to be the safety switch for Epstein and how they were compromised and took precautions then.)

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        I think if Trump truly has that evidence, he just should let loose with it. The entire political class will go nuts and be so occupied with damage controt he will, for a month or two, have a free hand. You can do a lot in two months (if you’ve got the staff, which is where Project 2025 ought to have come in.

        1. Pat

          I honestly don’t think he does have evidence. I would buy that that the Maralago raid was to confirm he hadn’t stumbled on anything. But in truth I just don’t see Trump being disciplined enough not to give that kind of info up inadvertently.

          If he does have dirt, The more conspiracy minded would imagine that any major event that would be covered live the beltway blob would have snipers positioned h ready to take the cameras, press and audience out as well as Trump. I know after Covid that I no longer put mass murder of Americans off the table for our overlords. And if that was their fear that might be the only way to keep the videos and information out of the cloud and mass social media distribution.

      2. Googoogajoob

        Seems like this person had a fairly odd intersection of politics to begin with. Unlike Crooks though there’s plenty to chew on with what’s been found online.

        I have to say though, I hesitate on the instinct to point in the direction of the spooks. Yeah, the set of circumstances around this individual has that taste and smell but at the same time I can’t quite discount how the gun violence in America is essentially a fact of life and cannot warrant any reflection any longer.

        If anything I’d make the stretch to say I’m surprised given the last 20ish years off mass shooting and violent events has worked its way up to targeting presidential candidates if not the president.

        What I really can’t stomach here though is the notion that somehow the rhetoric of Democrats or Anti-Trumpers is a contributing factor to these recent attempts. Trump himself is no stranger to using that same type of rhetoric, whether describing the Dems or as recntly shown, immigrants. If youre going to claim that speech is violence, the last person I’d be using as my spear tip for this is Trump.

        1. Lambert Strether Post author

          > I hesitate on the instinct to point in the direction of the spooks.

          That’s why Snowden’s careful wording is so important. If the spooks cannot show “zero contact,” then the obvious questions lead right to LIHOP. Whether the questions as answered lead there is another issue entirely, but by then the damage is done, in half the country at least.

          In other words, for political purposes, a handler/asset relation need not be established. So watch for the Democrats to shift their talking points to a requirement for establishing precisely that.

          1. Daniil Adamov

            Serious question: how would they show “zero contact”? It seems rather difficult to prove conclusively. If no connection is found, it may just be hidden well.

  23. Peter Pan

    Is Trump on a SBU hit list? Aside from Routh appearing to be a total nutter, with political allegiances that go all over the spectrum, I can easily imagine him as a SBU useful idiot to carry out an assassination attempt.

    1. hk

      A Ulrainian ibtel agency engagibg in act of war agaibst US, publicly? Granted Zelensmi and Budanov are idiots, but that seems too silly, even as a patsy.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > Zelensmi and Budanov are idiots

        I don’t see how they emigrate to their Miami condos and go on cable if they try to whack anybody in the US, but stranger things have happened.

  24. Carolinian

    Key takeaway: a fellow Carolinian. And personally I’ll believe NC goes for Harris only when it happens.

    Which is not to say it will be unanimous. Very few yard signs so far and only a couple for Harris but I did see one that said simply “never Trump.” You do wonder about the distance from that message to “if you could kill Hitler wouldn’t you do it?” The Dems in their bubble live in a world of narrative.

    And I think that’s a lot scarier than Trump.

  26. JMH

    These are excerpts from writing I was doing this morning. I don’t suppose it adds anything much to the discussion. The bases seem to be well covered except for my final supposition that he might well end up put away someplace quite out of the way.”Yesterday the Secret Service shot at and then arrested a person with an AK-47 poking his weapon through the chain link fence around DJT’s Palm Beach golf course. Assuming this is not all made up … and the fact that I consider that possibility should tell you something … DJT and party were headed to that hole on the course. … I expected this but not so soon after the last time nor do I think either he or KDH are secure from attempts before the election. The craziness is quite in the open if one has eyes to see. … Circling back a bit, the would-be assassin is held on gun possession, he being a convicted felon barred from possession, but that is a ploy as the Feds have asked for him to have a psychiatric evaluation. Given the little that has been published, it looks not unlikely that he will not go to trial but to a “secure mental hospital.”

  27. John k

    Great reporting! Have you considered applying to nyt?
    How did he fund his enthusiastic ukr activities? His assassination attempt?
    Did he park under the bushes for the past week? (Did I miss the info of when he left Hawaii?) did he Overhear something at the photographers’ Trump shot spot? Or maybe a friendly photographer did briefed him? (Do the photographers get a friendly heads up of where trump is gonna golf on the day?) Or somebody more interesting? If he’s a former useful idiot he’s certainly not useful now. Imo if he croaks we’ll have an answer to that question. This reminds me the last guy was allowed to get a few shots off before being immediately snuffed.
    Early days. If there’s something that needs covering up it will be better covered than jfk.
    IM doc’s story is not at all surprising, I’m surrounded by tds. Seems worse than 2016/2020.
    Thanks, way more interesting than I expected.

  28. Jeremy Grimm

    If Trump were assassinated what kind unrest and chaos might follow? Would it be the u.s. Reichstag Fire?

    1. MFB

      My brother-in-law who lives in Ontario sometimes remarks that living in southern Canada, i.e. close to the US, is like living upstairs from a meth lab. (He’s very much a Harrisite.) But that seems to be overoptimistic. The US is indeed starting to look like the decline and fall of the Weimar empire. Biden is obviously Hindenburg; is Harris going to be Schleicher or Bruning? And who’s going to be Hitler? (Trump emphatically doesn’t fit the part.)

  30. JonnyJames

    Where’s all the “patriots” and DT supporters with all their AR-14s and pallets of ammo? They gonna just sit by and watch the “libruls” try to kill the Lord and Savior? ‘Merka is more armed than ever, so will this touch off some political violence? or will that come after the election. This violence is a great way to further polarize the country before the “election”. The plebs must be divided and distracted at all costs…

    Meanwhile, the Israeli attacks today left more dead Palestinian children and body parts of children laying about. Where’s the coverage of that on the teevee? Ahh, the smell of burning corpses in the morning, smells like victory! (also, I don’t think rotting and burning corpses are good for greenhouse gas emissions why aren’t the environmentalists speaking up about it?)

    1. JBird4049

      All true, but we are talking about the possibility of a faction of the ruling class deciding murder is an acceptable way to stop unacceptable candidates for political office, which is rather important isn’t? If I squint real hard, I can see Donald Trump stopping Bibi Netanyahu, which I cannot see at all with Kamala Harris.

      A slight possibility as opposed to none with people opposed to even a possibility of change willing to murder to prevent it.

      1. Michaelmas

        JBird4049: we are talking about the possibility of a faction of the ruling class deciding murder is an acceptable way to stop unacceptable candidates for political office

        Deciding? As if this is something happening just now?

        Come on. From my recollections, you’re old enough to recall the 1960s in the US, when TPTB assassinated a serving US president, his brother, a serving US attorney general, Martin Luther King, and sundry Black Panthers , and turned armed cops loose to mow down students on campuses like Kent State.

        Murdering opposition is what the American ruling classes have always done.

        1. JBird4049

          Well, yes, but I was referring to JohnnyJames’ contrast our reactions to the second attempt on DJT to our lack of reaction to yet another day of the Israelis’ butchery, and his anger at the differences, which has merit.

          Paul Wellstone aside, there was a gap of some decades between the assassinations of the 1960-70s to now. The idea of murdering troublesome Americans seems to have become acceptable in the United States’ political establishment with little pushback or investigation. Just look at Jeffrey Epstein, the questionable death of that Boeing informant, or those several leaders and participants of the Ferguson protests.

          It is just my belief that the reawakening of the ruling class’ acceptance of the use of political assassinations of troublesome people, not just the regular police brutality against low level opponents of the regime, which has never gone away, is of greater importance to Americans. People’s comfort level with with the use of murder as a tool is increasing. It is no one faction, but a number of them. A similar pattern could be followed before the American Civil War.

          I would add that the sovietization of the news especially with political opponents is also at least as important to Americans than the Palestinian genocide right now.

          2. AG

            The question whether there was a qualitative change is interesting. However may be we are falling for some fake narrative that there used to be a more decent USA before 1960s. The US never was. And of course you are in fact not implying that.

            I am not good with pre-war assassination history. Perhaps we just don´t know about them/they have been forgotten. And perhaps they were assassinations technically but since carried out by the state against labour e.g. or African Americans in the South, they were never regarded as assassinations by historic records.

            Which again you point out yourself

            Back then white ruling class was so closely knit that the question of killing a member of the elite never arose? It wasn´t necessary?

            An if it did – like with John Brown – it was regarded as so severe that it upset the entire system. Which would lead us to what you say re: the pre Civil War.

      2. John k

        I’ve had that pretty far fetched thought trump might resist bibi in some way. More hope than any thing else, granted the forever wars anti free speech dems will push bibi forward.
        Russia doesn’t need trump to wrap up ukr, but only trump might pull the curtain on poking the bear.
        He’s anyway mote focused on China, but I’d like to think after the tariff failures he’s ready to pull back and focus on the us. Maybe actually hire a diplomat to run state.
        My hopeful side.

  31. John k

    I can see how tds brings about crazy ideas. And if one of these guys succeeds Harris is elected. But if they can’t shoot straight and trump survives to the election he’s very likely to get elected. There’s enormous dissatisfaction and pain in this country. The establishment wants trump dead – and he survives! What rep or indie doesn’t wanna be part of that, despite the many warts? Imo the polls are under reporting trump again, it seems to me the swing polls are at best a tossup, and this will remind our short memories that the establishment that hates workers hates trump even more.
    And if trump ever asks voters ‘are you better off now than when I was pres 4 years ago…?

  32. Objective Ace

    at least one former Afghan soldier told the Times he had been contacted by him and expressed an interested in fighting if it meant getting out of Iran.

    Not really relevant to the topic at hand, but why does an Afghan soldier need to get out of Iran?

    1. failed pote

      It is being reported that Iran is be deporting 2 mil Afghan refugees. Apparently the Persians have not read Thomas Wolfe.

  33. ocop

    Spitballing, but the (un/underemployed?) former soldier is likely there as one of a few million refugees, who are not necessarily warmly welcomed by the native population. Mercenary work with the prospect of relocating to Europe could be enticing in those circumstances.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > I am voting for the candidate they are trying to kill.

      For some definition of “trying,” to be sure. But I don’t think you’re the only one. Especially in (the key swing state of) Pennsylvania.

      Of course, you can turn it around, the country being in equipoise: “I’m voting against the candidate my tribe wants to kill.”

      1. jobs

        Let’s face it, voting for murdering (e. g. Qassim Suleimani) narcissistic assholes has been completely normalized in the US. For a reason why the US is so family-blogged, no need to look further.

  35. Lena

    Max Blumenthal and Aaron Maté just did a live stream on The Grayzone YT channel about Routh, the assassination attempt, the Ukraine connection and lots more: “Proxy war patsy? – The Grayzone live”. On YT, find it under the “Live” listings on their channel.

  36. zach

    Yet another fantastic opportunity to recast himself as a president for ALL Americans (to use the parlance, please excuse the ambiguity).

    High time he abandoned the right wing pandering, especially considering it was always and only a ruse – “if i ran for president, i’d probably run as a republican because republicans are dumber” – or something to that effect.

    If he hadn’t done such a bang up job trashing those dirty Mexicans, there would be room here for a “SÍ SE PUEDE!”

    If he could’ve shown the slightest interest in the strange fruit still hanging from our nation’s tree of “liberty,” perhaps he could invoke Martin, or Malcom, or George, or Emmitt, or Christ any ONE of the long line of brothers stolen from us.

    If he hadn’t been raised, and spent his entire life, wrapping himself in a cocoon of impenetrable ego, there would be room here for humility – an opportunity to show Donald Trump, the man. Even I am not so jaded that I can’t say for certain it wouldn’t have an effect.

    Man, if only he, wasn’t he.

    I wrote previously, Donald Trump is the fruiting body of a system that thrives on coercion, extortion, conceit, deceit, and insatiety, all in quantities excessive to the point of lethal toxicity. (Rules are made to be broken). Strong words, by my estimation, perhaps/perhaps not without merit – I do not know him personally.

    My family owned a large parcel of land in southern Indiana, since disposed of after some key deaths. My nuclear family, owing to circumstances both unforeseen and inevitable, had occasion to bunk there for some period of time. My grandfather, an altogether odious man I learned after his passing, for tax reasons, left the land fallow, and all variety of native milkweeds would bloom in the pasture areas – at the height of summer, the land was awash in butterflies, dragonflies, mosquitoes, ticks, flies, junebugs, ladybugs, you name it, folks, I’m tellin you, we got it.

    When it came time to mow, my grandfather would studiously avoid the milkweeds – even such a beast as he couldn’t bring himself to mow down the plants that sustained such a diversity of life.

    Perhaps you see where I’m going with this. I hope so, because I’m not sure myself. Doing my best to follow the tracks of Mercury’s winged feet, but I was up late with a friend who’s going through some actual real life and death decision shit. Same guy who’s a wildland firefighter, btw, for those who’ve been tuning in.

    Milkweed, prepared incorrectly, can be fatally toxic to eat. The fruiting body of the plant, harvested at the correct time and cooked with proper technique, is apparently “really really good, for guys who don’t like vegetables.”

    If Donald Trump, is the fruiting body, of a system that thrives, on coercion, extortion, conceit, deceit, and insatiety, all in quantities excessive to the point of lethal toxicity… Is that really an indictment of the man, or of the system from which he bloomed?

    Further, by what manner can that bloom be prepared, that by ingesting it, it does not destroy they who seek its sustenance? Donny baby, throw me a bone here, no not that bone put that away.

    Or, is the fruiting body itself, once ingested, an inevitable death, as Amanita Virosa, The Destroying Angel?

    Heady stuff man. Let’s bring it back down to Erf.

    If Biden had aspirations to be the second coming of FDR, how then does Trump compare to Cousin Theodore? Remarkably similar stories on the global and domestic front at the moment, to those of the early 1900’s.

    Seems I managed to catch a Merc by the feather. But then, I would say that, perfect egoist that I am.

      1. zach

        Always asking the hard questions.

        Is the DT hermaphroditic, monoecious, or dioecious?

        Answer yes to one of those and he may lose his base entirely…

    2. zach

      I woke from the crushing weight of guilt at 2am this morning – somehow the follow on i attempted to post didn’t come through.

      I neglected to say, any number of brothers AND sisters stolen from us. In fact, i believe i wrote out half the human population from the above.

      Sorry y’all, after all, i’m just a man.

  37. AG

    This second “event” reminds of CIA covert operations against Morales April 2009 by Eduardo Rosa Flores, Hungarian Fascist mercenary and “poet”, who flew in all the way from Hungary and got shot by police in a stand-off after someone had revealed the assassination plan à la “The Day of the Jackal”, and the various attempts against Chavez.
    (There are still those theories that Chavez was actually poisoned by his personal nurse with support of his pal and personal bodyguard who in the aftermath ended up in a, I believe, US-Spanish witness-protection program -?)

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