By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Readers, we will have a Live Blog of tonight’s Vice-Presidential debate. Doors open at 8:30pm ET; the debate proper starts at 9:00pm.
I also had a scheduling debacle, so I’ll be playing catchup for a bit, here. –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
Return to the mimidae!
Blue Mockingbird, Yecora, Km 261, Sonora, Mexico.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Vance-Walz debate.
- Kamala’s October Surprise?
- Effects of Helene on North Carolina election.
- Boeing and Longshoremen strikes..
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
“US officials quietly backed Israel’s military push against Hezbollah” [Politico]. “Senior White House figures privately told Israel that the U.S. would support its decision to ramp up military pressure against Hezbollah — even as the Biden administration publicly urged the Israeli government in recent weeks to curtail its strikes, according to American and Israeli officials…. Behind the scenes, Hochstein, McGurk and other top U.S. national security officials are describing Israel’s Lebanon operations as a history-defining moment — one that will reshape the Middle East for the better for years to come. The thinking goes: Israel has obliterated Hezbollah’s top command structure in Lebanon, severely undercutting the group’s capabilities and weakened Iran, which used Hezbollah as a proxy and power projector. The Israelis had planned to launch a significantly bigger ground incursion into Lebanon this week, but Biden officials have urged against it, asking Israel to be more targeted in how it conducted its operations.” • Commentary:
The Biden White House has October Surprised their own candidate. A historical first, I think.
— Jeet Heer (@HeerJeet) October 1, 2024
For all I know, these people think war with Iran is an election-winning strategy. More:
This is either a complete and total failure to contain the conflict by the Biden administration — or this is what the White House wanted and it's the most egregious lie told to the public since WMD.
Either incompetence or duplicity–no 3rd option.
Malevolent in either case.— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) October 1, 2024
Tbe eternal question: Stupid or evil? Could be both! Meanwhile:
An Iranian missile exploded near the Mossad headquarters, located on the northern outskirts of Tel Aviv.https://t.co/8L5e2KsIeC pic.twitter.com/m9YCPHEjx3
— Aric Toler (@AricToler) October 1, 2024
“Near,” eh? So much for all that Epstein material….
“Viewers ‘very nervous’ as Joe Biden’s Hurricane Helene address sparks concern” [Irish Star]. “During his address, Biden was noticeably fighting back coughs while speaking about the storm’s tragic consequences… ‘We’re keeping all our prayers on all the lives lost…’ he managed between coughs…. “There’s nothing like wondering, ‘is my husband, wife, son, daughter, mother, father alive? Many more who remain without electricity, water, food, and communications,’ he continued, coughing again, before affirming to those affected by the disaster, ‘we are not leaving until the job is done.'” • So, Biden’s third bout with Covid?
2024
Less than forty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
This week’s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn’t turn the tide either. Despite the micturition and lamentation (very much including my own) about the Trump campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, “2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP” on the issues) do note the steady deterioration in Kamala’s position in the (aggregated) top battlegrounds. (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * Once again, doors open for the Live Blog at 8:30pm! Personally, I expect this debate to be more interesting than the Presidential debate, given the logorrhea of the previous combatants. But Vance has written a book, and Walz’s wife, also a teacher, had 40 students on their high school debate team, so maybe something rubbed off.
“JD Vance doesn’t think he needs debate prep to defeat Tim Walz” [Politico]. “‘We have well developed views on public policy so we don’t have to prepare that much,’ Vance said in a Teamsters press call on Wednesday morning. ‘We feel a lot more confident and frankly, you don’t have to prepare if you don’t have to hide what you say.’ His statement was in many ways exactly why Republicans — and especially Trump — continue to support him: He’s pithy, plainspoken and gets spirited with the media. And unlike Trump, he stays relentlessly on message and is known as an agile debater.”
“Want to Check That Fact? For V.P. Debate Viewers, Just Scan the Code” [New York Times]. “CBS News, host of Tuesday’s vice-presidential matchup between Senator JD Vance and Gov. Tim Walz, is using technology to try something new. A QR code — the checkerboard-like, black-and-white box that can be scanned by a smartphone — will appear onscreen for long stretches of the CBS telecast. Viewers who scan the code will be directed to the CBS News website, where a squad of about 20 CBS journalists will post fact-checks of the candidates’ remarks in real time. The code will appear only on CBS; viewers who tune in on a different channel will not see it. (Nearly every major network will simulcast the debate, starting at 9 p.m. Eastern.) But it is a novel approach to guide viewers, already accustomed to watching TV while hovering over a smartphone or laptop, to supplemental journalistic material elsewhere.” • Would be nice if users could select from a menu of QR codes, but whatever.
* * * Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris Is an Artless Dodger” [Peggy Noonan]. “The race is deadlocked with six weeks to go and if you’re an undecided, unsure or wavering voter it looks like Awful vs. Empty. [I]n terms of policy [Harris] is coming across as wholly without substance…. This week she couldn’t or wouldn’t answer a single question straight, and people could see it. She is an artless dodger…. Only when speaking of her personal biography does she seem authoritative. Otherwise she is airy, evasive, nonresponsive…. She owes us these answers. It is wrong that she can’t or won’t address them. It is disrespectful to the electorate. If voters don’t get a sense of her deeper beliefs they will think of her as a construct, something other people built so they can run the country as she does photo-ops. Half of America wonders who’s really running things as the Biden years ebb. They won’t want to wonder for another four years. Which gets us back to Awful vs. Empty. When Americans feel that’s the choice and neither side gives them reason to believe otherwise, they’ll likely start to think in ways they believe practical. Empty means trouble, a blur when we need a rudder, a national gamble based on insufficient information. It means a policy regime that would be unpredictable, perhaps extreme. You don’t want that. Awful is—well, awful. But he was president for four years, we didn’t all explode, institutions held, the threatened Constitution maintained. So—maybe that’s their vote. ‘Close your eyes and think of England.’ Unless of course in the next six weeks somebody surprises them, and impresses them.” • Fascinating that Nooners uses “he” without actually introducing Trump. We all know who “he” is…..
Kamala (D): “JD Vance allegedly banned from entering Primanti Brothers during campaign stop; restaurant calls it ‘momentary confusion'” [WTRF]. “A popular Pittsburgh restaurant is under fire after Trump supporters claim that staff allegedly banned Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance from entering the establishment. Approximately 100 residents of Allegheny County were waiting at the restaurants for Vance’s arrival. Washington County GOP Chair Sean Logue shared his account on social media and is now calling for a boycott of Primanti Brothers. Logue reported [sic] to KDKA that the manager told patrons that Vance was not allowed to make a campaign stop at Primanti Brothers, but pushback came when supporters reminded management that Kamala Harris was granted a photo op at the restaurant last month…. According to reports, Vance stayed outside of the restaurant while a staffer tried to negotiate with Primanti’s manager, going as far as calling corporate. Many of the Trump supporters walked out of the restaurant to take pictures with Vance. A Primanti’s spokesperson told KDKA that Vance and his guest were then welcomed into the restaurant where they were able to talk to different guests. Primanti Brothers released the following statement, ‘Primanti’s prides itself on being a staple of the Pittsburgh community and a proud American business that has hosted sitting presidents, politicians, and political candidates from across the spectrum for over 90 years. Our doors are open to all patrons who wish to dine with us. Without any advance notice, today’s campaign stop caused some momentary confusion for our staff. However, Senator Vance and his team were welcomed into our restaurant shortly after and engaged with our guests inside and on the property. Senator Vance’s supportive comments that our manager got a little nervous given the secret service, police and crowd accurately reflect the nature of what occurred, but we are glad that it was resolved quickly.” It is reported that while in the restaurant, Vance paid the bill for all of the supporters and walked out two minutes later.” • Hmm. Could be a staff screwup, but reads like a set-up to me, sort of a reverse Penzeys Spices move. And oops:
This is a boss move by Kamala and Walz.
Primanti Bros allowed Kamala and their camera’s into their restaurant today, after telling JD Vance NO yesterday. https://t.co/a0Ie2ej2oD— Liberal Lisa in Oklahoma (@lisa_liberal) September 29, 2024
Not sure how “boss moves” like this jibe with being a President of “all the people.”
* * * Trump (R): “Trump’s ageing is as real as Biden’s” [Edward Luce, Financial Times]. “The only way to understand his state of mind is to watch every rally to the end or read all the transcripts. Ninety-nine per cent of voters do not have the time. Which means that Trump is treated as the same old Trump, eliciting familiar shrugs with the latest childish insult or outrageous vow. You could smuggle a sharp cognitive decline into Trump’s persona and few would notice. In politics, this offers a rare form of hurricane insurance. Nobody who rewatches Trump in 2016 and compares him with today could deny that his memory is patchier and his vocabulary smaller. Even when he avoids familiar tangents about Hannibal Lecter and death by electrocution or sharks, his repetition is notable. ‘Kamala is mentally impaired,’ Trump said at the weekend. ‘Joe Biden became mentally impaired. It’s sad. But lying Kamala Harris, honestly, I believe she was born that way.'” • I believe that I am one of the very few analysts — perhaps the only analyst — to review Trump’s transcripts, which I have done since 2016, when I saw him speak. When I compared Trump in 2016 to Trump in 2024 — using transcripts, as Lucse suggests should be done, but does not seem to have done — I concluded:
However, I think we can conclude that Trump’s mental acuity is undiminished, that his populism could be seen to have veered off in a Schmittian “friend and enemy” direction, but that his populism can also be said to include on “kitchen table” issues, like tips, real wages, and unions, the first two certainly distinguishing him from Biden. (At this point we remember that under the CARES ACT, poverty actually diminished.) Trump, for good or ill, remains unique…
However, to be fair to Luce, I compared rhetorical constructs and sentence structure; I did not consider vocabulary. Perhaps I should look at that.
* * * “Battleground states see waves of new voters sign up who could sway 2024 race” [USA Today]. “In the majority of the seven key battleground states where Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris are particularly close in the polls, the current number of registered voters is up compared with the 2020 presidential contest that coincided with the COVID-19 global pandemic. North Carolina, as one example, boasts nearly a half million more registered people in 2024 compared with 2020, when Trump eked out a win over Joe Biden in the Tar Heel State by about 74,000 votes. Over in Michigan, the total count of registered voters has grown by more than 350,000 since October of 2020. Biden’s margin of victory that year over Trump in the midwestern battleground state: a little more than 150,000 votes. Similar voter registration trends are also playing out in Arizona, where Biden bested Trump in 2020 by about 10,500 votes, and Nevada, where the current Democratic president beat his predecessor by nearly 33,600 votes. Between August 2020 and the end of July this year, the Arizona electorate grew by nearly 125,000 voters. In Nevada − the least populated of this year’s swing states − more than 260,000 additional registered voters have signed up compared with this time four years ago. There’s an important caveat to this data: Registered voters are not the same thing as actual voters….”
* * * GA: “Trump turns Hurricane Helene aftermath political” [Politico]. Oh my stars and garters! More: “Standing before piles of bricks blown off a furniture store in Valdosta, Georgia, Trump repeated his false claim that President Joe Biden wouldn’t get on the phone with the state’s Republican governor — despite Gov. Brian Kemp saying he had spoken to the president a day earlier and appreciated the federal help his state has received. And addressing reporters who assembled in Georgia ahead of his Monday afternoon stop, Trump predicted that Biden was ‘sleeping,’ criticized Harris for having been ‘out somewhere campaigning, looking for money’ a day earlier — when Trump himself was rallying in Pennsylvania — and referred to her running mate as ‘Tampon Tim.’ Even Trump seemed to acknowledge — at least when reading from prewritten remarks — that it wasn’t the time or place. ‘As you know, our country is in the final weeks of a hard-fought national election. At a time like this when a crisis hits, when our fellow citizens cry out in need, none of that matters,’ Trump said as he read from sheets of notes. ‘We’re not talking about politics now. We have to all get together and get this solved.’ But he refused to stick to that statesman’s tone on Monday. And for all the political benefits Trump has seemed to reap for being the first to show up at disaster sites — such as his visit to East Palestine, Ohio, early last year, when Biden had failed to go — his penchant for using any opportunity to smear his rivals was also on full display. Indirectly, so, too, in the aftermath of a hurricane affecting the swing states of North Carolina and Georgia, was the more measured persona Harris is seeking to project in a neck-and-neck race.”
MI: “‘A false sense of comfort’: Michigan Dems fight to keep voters’ attention on abortion” [Politico]. “Democrats swept Michigan in 2022 by campaigning on abortion rights, winning control of all branches of government in Lansing for the first time in nearly 40 years and making the state the first to override a ban on the procedure after the fall of Roe v. Wade. But this year, despite leaning even more heavily into the issue, Democrats remain virtually tied in federal races that could determine the presidency and majorities in Congress. That’s fueling anxiety that abortion slipped off many voters’ radars after Michiganders approved the ballot initiative two years ago. ‘There’s a false sense of comfort that somehow we’re okay because it’s in the Michigan Constitution,’ outgoing Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow told POLITICO recently… Democrats’ fight for Michigan is testing the potency and staying power of their national message that Republicans will wipe out access to abortion everywhere if given the chance.'” •
NC: “Helene adds stress to election in North Carolina” [Axios (SlayTheSmaugs)]. “North Carolina, one of the most important battlegrounds in the race for president, is at the center of the destruction from Hurricane Helene. Beyond the physical and emotional toll of the storm, Helene suddenly has created massive hurdles for voters and election officials just 35 days before the Nov. 5 election. ‘Voting won’t be a priority for a lot of people,’ said Seth Morris, an election law expert and associate at Parker Poe in North Carolina…. Early in-person voting begins in North Carolina on Oct. 17, a deadline that may be difficult for officials in some parts of the state to meet, especially if any of their polling locations were damaged or destroyed. ‘There are small staffs in a lot of these places whose attention is obviously going to be elsewhere,’ [Seth Morris, an election law expert and associate at Parker Poe in North Carolina] said ‘[Many] won’t be able to go to work this week and prepare for early voting and to handle the mail-ballots that are coming in.'” • Confirming, or at least supporting, my views expressed here yesterday. This too–
NC: “How Helene’s destruction could affect voting in North Carolina’s election” [News & Observer]. “In the aftermath of Hurricane Helene’s destruction in Western North Carolina, concerns have emerged about whether residents affected by the storm will be able to cast their ballots in the November election. Disruptions to the postal service, destruction of polling places, missing or damaged IDs and more could all pose challenges to voters with only 36 days left until the election. ‘This is all a cascading series of disasters,’ Gerry Cohen, a member of the Wake County Board of Elections, said.” • I should have added that mail-in ballots would be disrupted; fifty lashes with a wet noodle for Lambert. NOTE: Blue Buncombe County, home of Asheville, is the only county named.
NC: “Harris interrupts campaign schedule to visit Georgia, North Carolina in hurricane aftermath” [The Hill]. The headline is deceptive: “Harris will travel to Georgia on Wednesday and then to North Carolina ‘in the coming days,’ according to a White House official.”
PA: “Poll shows a tight race in Pennsylvania, with warning signs for Harris among older voters” [Politico]. “Harris is winning 49 percent of likely voters, compared with 47 percent for Trump and 2 percent for other candidates, the poll done by a bipartisan team for AARP found. Three percent are undecided…. Biden was down 5 percentage points overall in that April survey. Among voters aged 18 to 49, he was behind by 1 point; she is now ahead by 14. He was losing independents by 6 points; she is winning them by 9. With Democrats, women, suburban voters, rural voters and even voters without a college degree, she is outperforming Biden. There is a major voting bloc, though, among which she has slipped: seniors. Harris is losing voters aged 65 and older by 7 points, compared with 1 point for Biden. ‘Harris’ biggest weakness is older voters. It is the biggest share of the electorate, and she is behind,’ said Republican pollster Bob Ward, whose firm, Fabrizio Ward, helped conduct the AARP survey and also polls for the Trump campaign. The economy appears to be a big reason why older voters prefer Trump to Harris. For voters aged 50 and up who ranked inflation and high prices as a top issue, Trump has a 54-point lead.” • Older voters are the most reliable, too.
Clinton Legacy
“Clinton warns of October surprise that will ‘distort and pervert’ Harris” [The Hill]. “Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned of an October surprise that will ‘distort and pervert’ Vice President Harris. ‘There will be concerted efforts to distort and pervert Kamala Harris, who she is, what she stands for, what she’s done,’ Clinton said during an interview with ‘Firing Line’ host Margaret Hoover. She pointed to the 2016 ‘pizzagate’ conspiracy theory that surrounded the end of her presidential campaign against Donald Trump.” • “Surrounded” is going a lot of work, there. I followed election 2016 closely, and I cannot say that Pizzagate figured largely in the coverage, or that it affected the outcome (and did Clinton really not mention Russia?). So I take this as projection, and I presume the Democrats have a pre-emptive strike ready. We’ll see!
Realignment and Legitimacy
“It’s The Crisis of Masculinity, Stupid” [Sasha Stone, Free Thinking]. “I don’t want to insult Tim Walz or Doug Emhoff. I would never want to make them feel bad about things they can’t help, like masculinity, but BRUH. They would be what one might call sensitive men. No one out there is buying that Tim Walz is the masculine male role model that will bring back male voters. He’s just not that guy. They’re trying to sell him as Chief Brody, but really, he’s Matt Hooper from the Oceanographic Institute.” • Hooper is, I think, a character from Jaws. Not sure what’s going on in this post, but “irritable mental gestures” seems to cover it.
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Social Norming
It seems to me that a broadening neurological spectrum is important and, more to the point, adaptive:
Maybe it's because I came to to CC twitter from autism twitter but it's just so glaringly obvious to me that the #1 barrier to mass adoption of masking isn't misinformation, it's social cues and popularity contests. https://t.co/ioXx4OaZ2h
— 🧂Mask 4 Tinu & Fiqah (@DestinySugarB) September 30, 2024
Lambert here: At last, the wastewater data looks improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Back to School” bullet, at least at the national level. The wastewater drop is reinforced by the positivity numbers as well.
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC September 23 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC September 28 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 21 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| New York[5] New York State, data September 27: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens September 30: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 21: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity[9] CDC September 9: | Variants[10] CDC September 9: |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 21: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 21: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Much less intense!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).
[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.
[10] (Travelers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Employment Situation: “United States Job Openings” [Trading Economics]. “The number of job openings rose by 329,000 to 8.040 million in August 2024 from an upwardly revised 7.711 million in July and above market expectations of 7.655 million.”
Employment Situation: “United States Job Quits” [Trading Economics]. “The number of job quits in the US fell to 3.084 million in August of 2024 from the downwardly revised 3.243 million in the previous month, the lowest since August of 2020.”
Supply Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Manager’s Index in the US jumped to 58.6 in September 2024 from 56.4 in August, pointing to the highest growth rate in the logistics sector in two years. The overall index has now increased for ten consecutive months, providing strong evidence that the logistics industry is back on solid footing.” • Effect of ILA strike not mentioned.
Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 47.3 in September 2024 from a preliminary of 47, but remained the lowest since June 2023. It marked the third consecutive month of contraction, with both output and new orders falling sharply due to weakened demand and political uncertainty.”
Supply Chain: “East and Gulf coast ports strike, with ILA longshoremen walking off job from New England to Texas, stranding billions in trade” [CNBC]. “Approximately 50,000 ILA union longshoremen were walking off the job at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports from New England to Texas starting at 12:01 a.m. ET on Tuesday after failing to reach an agreement with ports ownership on a new contract, the union’s first strike since 1977. Between 43%-49% of all U.S. imports and billions of dollars in trade monthly move through the U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports. The International Longshoremen’s Association, the largest maritime union in North America, rejected an offer from the port management group USMX on Monday that included a wage hike over six years near 50%.” • Commentary:
Dockworkers are being totally unreasonable when it comes to demanding pay hikes. What do they think they are, corporate executives?!?
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) October 1, 2024
Supply Chain: “‘I will cripple you’: Dockworkers union vows to shut down U.S. economy with strike” [MarketWatch]. “In a video posted by the union last month, the ILA chief negotiator warned a dockworkers strike had the power to ‘cripple’ the U.S. economy, by blocking the import of everything from cars and clothes to construction materials. ‘These people today don’t know what a strike is,’ [ the International Longshoremen’s Association’s chief negotiator, Harold Daggett] said. ‘When my men hit the streets, from Maine to Texas, every single port will lock down. … Everything in the United States comes on a ship.'” • Presumably the contract will end, as should Boeings, on May 1, 2028? Speaking of not knowing “what a strike is.”
Supply Chain: “White House left with few good options as dockworkers walk out” [CNN]. “For weeks, Cabinet-level officials across an array of agencies have been keeping close tabs on the negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association and a consortium of companies managing ports along the East and Gulf coasts. White House officials on Friday met with representatives from the consortium, the US Maritime Corporation, to encourage the association to stay at the negotiating table. When it comes to brokering a potential deal, labor experts say the White House has just two tools: Using the bully pulpit and invoking the Taft-Hartley Act, which would force the longshore workers to get back on the job. President Joe Biden has sent a clear message that he has no plans to do the latter. ‘No,’ Biden told reporters Sunday when asked whether he would intervene in a potential strike. ‘Because it’s collective bargaining, and I don’t believe in Taft-Hartley.’ Breaking the strike would be a politically dangerous move for Biden as his vice president, Kamala Harris, runs to succeed him in the Oval Office. Without taking that move, there’s not much else the White House can do.” • Too bad about the railroad workers, but it wasn’t an election year.
Manufacturing: “Boeing Mulls $10B Stock Sale To Shore Up Finances” [Investopedia]. “Boeing is reportedly considering selling up to $10 billion in stock to boost its revenue as it deals with a strike by its machinists. However, Boeing likely won’t raise equity for at least a month, … as the company looks to end the strike by reaching a deal with the union and get a clearer estimate of its financial impact. The plane maker was already in a difficult financial position before the strike, after burning through billions to address a variety of issues, including mechanical problems with its planes and a legal settlement with the government related to two deadly crashes…. Shares of Boeing were 2% higher at $154.98 in early trading Tuesday, though even with Tuesday’s gains, they’ve lost over 40% of their value since the start of the year.” • Seems going to a lot of trouble just to bust the unions.
Manufacturing: “Boeing Needs to Take a Cue From UPS and Pay Its Strikers” [Bloomberg]. “Boeing Co.’s labor negotiators should have paid more attention to how Carol Tomé, the chief executive officer of United Parcel Service Inc., handled talks with its union last year. UPS workers were itching to strike, and the company was inevitably going to have to give hefty raises. Instead of digging in over a couple of percentage points on the salary increases, risking a strike and creating more animosity with its workforce, Tomé relented to the union’s demands. The higher labor costs have squeezed margins, and investors registered their dismay with a 27% drop in the share price since the tentative deal was announced in July last year. UPS customers, though, were grateful that Tomé avoided the disruption a strike would have caused. Tomé’s calculation was that even if she pushed the negotiations to the point of a strike, the company would have ended up in the same place — a big payout and costly changes such as adding air conditioning to new delivery vehicles. The only difference would have been the worker ill will and angry customers that a strike would have provoked. Automakers, on the other hand, let labor talks break down, and they ended up agreeing to record pay increases after a costly six-week strike. Boeing has dug in its heels with striking machinists who have shut down factories for more than a week, and it’s not working. The planemaker will more than likely have to meet workers’ demands to end this damaging and costly strike. Customers are upset that the delays in plane deliveries will worsen. Suppliers are left in the dark about how much they should cut back on production, which hurts their workers and finances. Repairing the culture of quality and safety on the factory floor is in jeopardy. The strike is only accelerating Boeing’s cash burn, spurring Moody’s Ratings to consider cutting the company’s debt rating.” •
Manufacturing: “Over 40 Airlines Could Be Flying Boeing Jets With Risky Rudder Parts” [Jalopnik]. “The National Transportation Safety Board warned over 40 foreign airlines on Tuesday that their Boeing 737 planes may be fitted with potentially dangerous rudder components. The agency identified 271 parts that could fail and jam the rudder control system. The NTSB discovered the issue while investigating a February landing incident involving a United Airlines flight arriving at Newark Liberty International Airport.” • Whoops.
Manufacturing: “Boeing can recover from its Starliner troubles, but it can’t afford any other misfires” [The Conversation]. “The partial failure of Starliner’s mission doesn’t help Boeing’s effort to bounce back from its problems. The company’s reputation has not been irreparably damaged, however. Boeing can recover and is taking the right initiatives to re-emphasise a safety culture – something that’s crucial to its business going forward. But recovering trust while upholding financial performance can take years.” • Obviously, the first step to buildng a safety culture is busting the unions.
Tech: So much for backup:
Your files are dying.
That SSD you keep in the closet, the one from your old system "just in case". Yup, degrading as we speak.
SSDs are *shockingly* bad at power off retention, esp if it's near it's endurance rating.
The JEDEC standard only requires 1 year of unpowered data… pic.twitter.com/zlpkCbTQms
— LaurieWired (@lauriewired) September 30, 2024
I had always assumed unpowered SSDs were stable indefinitely. Since I vehemently oppose the cloud, I suppose I’ll have to get a CD burner or some such. Time consuming!
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 68 Greed (previous close: 75 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 66 (Hreed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 1 at 1:46:30 PM ET.
Gallery
For Alma-Tadema stans:
Long before cinema, there was "cinematic" painting.
These paintings are centuries old, but look like stills from a high-budget movie epic.
Here are some you haven't seen before — that will blow your mind… 🧵 pic.twitter.com/wdltpBWHY3
— Culture Critic (@Culture_Crit) September 27, 2024
“Explicit Tape Showing Diddy and A-List Celeb Being ‘Shopped Around,’ Attorney Says” [Hollywood Reporter]. “”There already have been [Diddy] tapes leaking around Hollywood, being shopped around to individuals in Hollywood, but one particular person contacted me to shop a particular video they were in possession of, and to contact the person who was in the video to see if they were interested in purchasing the video before it became public knowledge,” [Attorney Ariel Mitchell-Kidd] said. The attorney declined to disclose the identity of the person in the video, but said they are even more famous than Combs. ‘Mr. Combs was in the tape and this other person is, I would venture to say, more high-profile than Mr. Combs,’ Mitchell-Kidd explained. The attorney said she’s seen screengrabs from the video, which was recorded at Diddy’s home in Atlanta. ‘The other person in the video is very visible. It’s no question if it’s that person in the video, and I can tell that the video is pornographic in nature,’ the attorney said, adding that the unnamed celeb did not appear to know they were being recorded. ‘The person isn’t looking into the camera, so to me, it doesn’t seem like that person knows they’re being videotaped,’ she noted, ‘like they’re being surreptitiously recorded.'”• I don’t care about celebrities. How about people with actual power? Executives? Investors? Regulators? Electeds?
“Do All Problems Have Technical Fixes?” [Communications of the ACM]. “The unspoken foundational claim is not that computing technology confers certain benefits, a pragmatic claim, and a matter of fact, but that it carries normative value, that it’s good; in particular, our tech is good, and therefore should be out there in the world. This is tricky.” • By Betteridge’s Law….
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From CC:
CC writes: “Noticed this on the post at the bottom of the steps at my daughter’s house. Momma Spider on the post and her bunch(? Highly technical description), just below her above the handrail.”
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RE: Helene and North Carolina
I talked to my sister who lives in NC yesterday. Her area only got about an inch of rain and then back to normal, but there is devastation everywhere around her.
She said Trump was there already while whoever from the Democrat party is running the country these days was notably absent. She may have gotten it a little wrong – I see he was in Georgia yesterday but couldn’t see that he actually visited NC yet.
Today’s links showed Lara Trump partnering with Goya to bring relief. Trump has also said he is partnering with Samaritan’s Purse and claims to have brought them a lot of supplies.
https://www.westernjournal.com/trump-teams-samaritans-purses-franklin-graham-says-biden-harris-non-responsive-hurricane/
https://thewilkesrecord.com/samaritan%27s-purse-responds-to-devastated-areas,-trump-visits-p9128-149.htm
I have no idea whether he brought a ton of supplies or just made a token gesture, but Samaritan’s Purse is no joke. That is Franklin Graham’s organization. He is the son of Billy Graham who had the ear of many presidents, and I would be very surprised if Franklin doesn’t have some clout in DC as well. Their global headquarters is in Boone, NC and they bring relief by the planeload all over the world. I have visited their hangar in NC and toured the DC-8 they use to deliver supplies to disaster areas all over the world. Not 100% sure, but I believe the first video from the Western Journal link above shows Trump in front of that hangar.
He’s playing politics in a disaster area to be sure, but he does appear to be helping too. Biden mumbling something incoherent the other day about having already helped isn’t going to play nearly as well with people up to their necks in wreckage.
Thankfully, everyone in my family is OK.. The same cannot be said of some of their neighbors and friends.
I have now talked to several of them on the phone. They are scrambled with what they have just been through – and have lost much – but they will be OK.
I thought long and hard about putting this on here – but I think I must – I have heard this discussed nowhere else. But it has been a long-simmering issue in many of my family members and their world view.
I got similar stories from 2 different family members in 2 different areas.
My family ( on that side ) has always been very much into military service. Almost all of them have some kind of time in the service in their background. This is dating back generations – even centuries. That is until the last 5 years or so. None of the old guard have pushed their young men to join the service in any way. They have seen what has happened to our military – and are basically saying “No, Thanks.” – These young men are all very athletic – very familiar with weapons – climbing up and down mountains and trees, swimming and living off the land all their childhoods. But again “No, Thanks.”
Apparently – in these two locations – national Guard troops from 2 different states showed up. At least some of the soldiers were extremely out of shape – struggling to carry a heavy pack for 50 yards, etc. It was described to me that the recently rescued and still harried women did better at this than the soldiers. There was apparently one injury – when a soldier was struggling with a pack of food, slipped and fell and really hurt themselves ( apparently said soldier was somewhat obese and panting). They seemed to my family members who are veterans to be really out of their league – and quite frankly they were shocked. Shocked enough to mention this to me. The states these units came from are blue states.
I think this is a whole other aspect of our current situation as a country that our elite are just ignoring. This is especially pertinent today watching a new war ( WWIII?) begin before our eyes. If they think that our military is in any kind of shape to deal with 2-3 theaters at a time – they are sorely mistaken. I do wonder how many other families there are with very athletic able-bodied kids – are actively discouraging their kids from the military? I do wonder what would happen if we needed to draft man-bun avocado-toast-eating snowflakes? Somehow – I think it may be much worse than Vietnam. This is especially true when I read the last data I saw that 60% of the fighting age men are so obese or out of shape that they could not join. I see this all day every day in my practice with my own eye – and believe it.
But what do I know – my PMC friends tell me all the time how ignorant I am – armed soldiers are yesterday’s war – Obama showed us all how to do it with drones……
Our leaders are writing checks – and there is no money in the bank to cash them. And I do feel that we are likely facing “Time’s Up!” We may have already entered the event horizon.
my grandads and great uncles(pacific theater, ww2) to a man encouraged my generation to do something besides join the armed forces.
and the single vietnam era vet in my immediate life(Don, stepdad) was adamant with my boys:”under no circumstances are y’all to join the military…we;ll shoot you in the foot before that happens”(i was on board with this line, and repeat it when necessary, in his absence)
but mine is in no way a “military family”.
i, as a rule, dont really hang out with such people,lol…but of the several military families i know, irl, none of their kids have followed the family tradition.
only one of Eldest’s cohort (and one of his 2 best friends) joined up…in his case, the navy…to get trained up in welding…especially underwater welding…because he couldnt afford school.
zero of Youngest’s krewe has joined, to my knowledge.
and…even more anecdotally…the local american legion post was…as of 15 years ago…a rather active bunch around here…writing articles in the local paper around memorial day…doing flag things on teh square, etc.
even turned their lil post building into a mason county military museum…
but…well…maybe all those guys died off, or something…because ive seen exactly zero activity in at least 2 years.(it would be front and center in the local paper…hard to miss…formerly).
in fact, aside from Eldests buddy, i can only think of one other kid in the last 4 or 5 years who went into such service…and he was from a poor, recent immigrant Mexican family(one of my wife’s esl kids)…so who knows the incentives, there.
his announcement sorts shocked the boys and their buddies.
like it was out of nowhere.
so…yeah…if any of the anecdata in this small, far place can scale up, the idea of a 3 front war…or even defending the “homeland” is just silly.
add in the health and weight issues mentioned above….add in the generalised mental health crises we all seem to be dealing with(below a certain income level, one assumes)…and add in widespread lack of interest.
whats the old thing?
“what if they had a war and nobody showed up?”?
i would hypothesise that the latter two are enabled by the legitimacy crises we’re apparently not supposed to talk about…and all of the above issues can be chalked up to the powers that be, and their spooks and propagandists, have gotten exactly what they wanted…a docile, distracted, unlearned, undisciplined mass of lumpen…armed enough to kill each other…but disorganised more than enough to pose no real physical threat to “Our Betters”.
but now they need fit, patriotic, disciplined and selfless(!!!) fighting folk,lol.
its similar to the same wealthy morons seeing the answer to the effects of sending all that physical plant to china, as to go to war with china.
“you got , what you want…and you can hardly stand it…”-Aimee Mann, Wise Up.
My father, a decorated Vietnam veteran, strongly discouraged me from joining the military. He seriously hated the lies he was told by the government to get him to kill people and the dancers-and-prancers that occupied most leadership positions.
And there’s this:
All the soldiers in previous wars, when things got tough, there were the hopeful letters to and from home. There was a brighter place to return to.
This time…they’ll be on the battlefields with additional worries of friends, lovers, and family back home who would probably be facing more than rationing and shortages of the past.
and dejoy is still in charge of the mails,lol.
so they do not work, in my recent expreience.
gigantic clusterfuck and utter failure of governance is all i see when i look out from the cattleguard.
Comparing life expectancy among the G7:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1p7yP
January 15, 2018
Life Expectancy at Birth for United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and United Kingdom, 2017-2022
Following on the thinking of IM DOC; also in Links:
Between 11 and 12% of the American population suffers from diabetes, while there have just been important advances to cures to type 1 and type 2 diabetes by scientists in China. I think this exciting:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03129-3
September 26, 2024
Stem cells reverse woman’s diabetes — a world first
She is the first person with type 1 diabetes to receive this kind of transplant.
By Smriti Mallapaty
A 25-year-old woman with type 1 diabetes started producing her own insulin less than three months after receiving a transplant of reprogrammed stem cells. She is the first person with the disease to be treated using cells that were extracted from her own body.
“I can eat sugar now,” said the woman, who lives in Tianjin, China, on a call with Nature. It has been more than a year since the transplant, and, she says, “I enjoy eating everything — especially hotpot.” The woman asked to remain anonymous to protect her privacy.
James Shapiro, a transplant surgeon and researcher at the University of Alberta in Edmonton, Canada, says the results of the surgery are stunning. “They’ve completely reversed diabetes in the patient, who was requiring substantial amounts of insulin beforehand.”
The study, * published in Cell today, follows results from a separate group in Shanghai, China, who reported in April that they had successfully transplanted insulin-producing islets into the liver of a 59-year-old man with type 2 diabetes. The islets were also derived from reprogrammed stem cells taken from the man’s own body, and he has since stopped taking insulin.
The studies are among a handful of pioneering trials using stem cells to treat diabetes, which affects close to half a billion people worldwide. Most of them have type 2 diabetes, in which the body doesn’t produce enough insulin or its ability to use the hormone diminishes. In type 1 diabetes, the immune system attacks islet cells in the pancreas.
Islet transplants can treat the disease, but there aren’t enough donors to meet the growing demand, and recipients must use immune-suppressing drugs to prevent the body from rejecting the donor tissue.
Stem cells can be used to grow any tissue in the body and can be cultured indefinitely in the laboratory, which means they potentially offer a limitless source of pancreatic tissue. By using tissue made from a person’s own cells, researchers also hope to avoid the need for immunosuppressants…
* https://x.com/i/status/1840823265121677569
To say nothing of the disrespect and lack of support given to our soldiers by our military establishment, from Gulf War Syndrome, to burn pits in Iraq II, to squalid living conditions in our privatized military housing, to brain damage from firing off artillery rounds in Syria, to say nothing of PFAS pollution around bases. The list is endless.
I’m not sure why anyone knowing any of this would ever join our military. You’re going to get poisoned and discarded by our own country!
The school lunch program was created in part because of WWI or WWII and too many men that couldn’t fight because of general weakness due to malnutrition. But the school lunch program now is so convoluted that kids would rather bring Takis and mountain dew for lunch. (True story, I had to make a call home about sending kids with more appropriate lunches.)
Covid causing long term infections and brain fog definitely isn’t helping either. But I will say this, I’m an educator in a red state and I don’t have very many 14 year old students who are healthy enough to join up in 3 to 4 years. It would take some serious work to get them prepared. And I probably have more girls who are physically fit than boys because of dance classes. Boys aren’t in active clubs anymore. No baseball, some soccer, no basketball. They play pretend war on their gaming consoles, though.
“I don’t have very many 14 year old students who are healthy enough to join up in 3 to 4 years. It would take some serious work to get them prepared. And I probably have more girls who are physically fit than boys because of dance classes. Boys aren’t in active clubs anymore. No baseball, some soccer, no basketball…”
Importantly, in China all elementary and middle school students are required to spend 2 hours each day on physical activity. All sorts of activities are arranged for students with disabilities. *
Also, there is always breakfast and lunch.
* Chinese athletes excel at the Paralympic games.
https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/paralympic-games/medals
September 8, 2024
Paralympics Medals, 2024
( Gold) ( Silver) ( Bronze) Total
1 China ( 94) ( 76) ( 50) ( 220)
2 Great Britain ( 49) ( 44) ( 31) ( 124)
3 United States ( 36) ( 42) ( 27) ( 105)
4 Netherlands ( 27) ( 17) ( 12) ( 56)
5 Brazil ( 25) ( 26) ( 38) ( 89)
6 Italy ( 24) ( 15) ( 32) ( 71)
yeah, maybe the gravy seals cosplaying as the military, but i have a very hard time believing your story. sounds about as real as haitians eating pets…
and this avocado toast (lol, half of a $2 fruit on a piece of bread, how fancy) eating, manbun wearing commenter was a semi-professional athlete (now im old and broken), so maybe check your ridiculous preconceived notions of people fed to you direct by the right wing hate machine. the hate is so addictive, and they profit off your attention being manipulated.
lol at you blaming obesity on the ‘left’ when the fattest states are all in republican strongholds, and how did we get here? corn subsidies! wheat subsidies! meat subsidies! dairy subsidies! the agricultural industry has been predominately right wing forever. its definitely not avocado toast making people fat.
its funny, just last year a marine recruiter tried to recruit me in home depot while i was looking through the tool isle. she couldnt believe how old i was (too old to join, thank god because i hate our foreign policy) and how fit i was and how hard it is to find fit people these days. which is true, but thanks to our despicable corporate culture of feeding people poison and selling them the cure.
military families are encouraging their kids not to join because look at how the government treats its veterans and sending our people to fight wars based on lies far away from home to enrich the already rich and plunder oil… not to mention the lies military recruiters tell to get kids to sign up.
I have six relatives who are of the right age to join the military; three are from a liberal family in a very, very blue New England State, and three are from MI and come from a very, very liberal family. Five of them are gigantically fat. The sixth one eats very low carb and works out all the time and is not fat. The obese ones are not just kind of obese, they are hugely obese. But their parents are not overweight. I think it is due to some sort of pollutant or food ingredient, and certainly coming from a blue state is not protective.
Well, it’s probably like anything else. My wife and I are retired military, service from VN to GWOT. Currently live next to the garrison for a regular army infantry division. I don’t see those issues, but my closest involvement now is as a “gym rat” at the base gym and that’s a self-selected subset. And I suppose your typical 11B is going to be in better shape than, say, a finance type.
High school JROTC is a pretty big thing here, though I don’t know how many go on to serve.
But can’t say how things are in the guard.
> Lara Trump partnering with Goya
Genius!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturn_Devouring_His_Son
Très drôle, Frère Wuk.
Micturition and lamentation? You’ve got me here Lambert, I am not sure what demotic phrase you are elevating here!
Literally piss and wailing but is that a thing? Piss and vinegar (LBJ?), piss and tears (Ukrainian flag), piss and wind (generic insult) or were you intending lachrymation and lamentation for tears and crying/shouting?
Please elaborate. Or rather, simplify into choice Anglo-Saxon.
The cinematic paintings are very good. One of them is Caravaggio’s Taking of Christ, which I just learned was only discovered in 1990 to be the original, hanging as a copy for decades in the Jesuits’ dining room in Dublin, and is currently having a post-sectarian holiday in Belfast hanging next to their Caravaggio. Cross community culture and parity of esteem. Kneecap would be proud.
The boys are inviting people to sponsor a word in Irish to keep the language alive. A lot of the rude ones have been claimed on reddit but the people are always inventing new ones. :-)
https://www.saveourspeech.se/#words
> Micturition and lamentation
P*issing and moaning.
Adding, I don’t see myself as “elevating.” More like parodying or Bowdlerizing. “P & M” is great: Vivid, direct, Anglo-Saxon monosyllables (but this is a family blog).
amfortas smacks head,lol.
Lamentation doesnt really evoke “moaning” in my mindworld…
and thats an idiom one doesnt hear out here much…for whatever historical/cultural reason.
“pissing in my ear”…yes…so it aint necessarily a puritan aversion to urine references.(the methodists, baptists and cowboy church folks say, instead, “pouring vinegar in my ear”, to much less effect)
the local equivalent seems to be “bitching”.
and even “bitching and moaning”.
and now i remember, using the word “bitching”, in ref to a male politician, got me suspended from faceborg, long ago…pre-Metoo.
active resistance to all things “Woke” out my way,lol…since before it was even really a thing in real life.(gotta give credit to that particular stopped clock,lol)
somebody should write a paper…if only we had the old academic/literary arm of the WPA….
Thank you for clearing that up.
I’m with Amf, lamentation is not really moaning, or it is an honourable and very specific subset (and keening would be even narrower!).
How about be(d)wetting and bemoaning if a euphemism is required?
Today I learned that one of the most radical US/UK English spelling differences is the word lachrymation! I had unthinkingly assumed it would be identical because it is so Latinate. But of course, it is a medical term and has presumably been aligned in the US on the “cri” spelling over “chry”.
Interestingly, both spellings are said to come from Mediaeval Latin variants so it is truly a matter of choice, not philological purity.
such distinctions give me a metaphorical woody,lol.
humans are such strange creatures.
monkey mind interpreted that as weeping/producing tears…but, no…thats lacrimation.
as in the Lacrimosa.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MafAZeag1_0
but im stoned and catching up on all the radical things y’all have tossed out in the comments(Zerzan…and that The Farm Guy in Mother Earth, etc)…so im not really in Latin Mode.
so anyhoo, i guess literally, its:” pissing and wailing” as you said.
i shall hafta think upon that for a time, having worked as a cook in the “Crazy” nursing home in the town next county over….sometimes, CSpan reminds me of that place, in fact…but theres less nudity and actual poo flinging in the gilded halls.
so far…
(how many days left til trump wins?)
>>>(how many days left til trump wins?)
Wins or until whatever story that they concocted to explains why he lost is released?
there will be either rending of garments, or premature jubilation, followed by the harsh reality.
team dem is playing with fire, domestically.
the People…at least those i encounter and either talk to or eavesdrop upon on my infrequent forays…are having none of it.
theres anger implicit, everywhere i go….if i just cock an ear.
it is expected that dems/commies will try even harder to steal this election….eyes hurt from the rollin, sometimes.
still:
(see: unaddressed and ongoing legitimacy crises)
a 15 min video (one take, no edits) of Iranian missile impacts in Israel.
pretty wild. (nothing graphic, just lots of booms)
A 15 min. supercut of social media videos of Iranian impacts….pretty wild.
And remember all of these images are theoretically censored by the Israeli government
If Iran wanted to kill scores of civilians, they had every opportunity. This is the last off-ramp before we go 100% Wile E. Coyote.
https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1841183543093051731
I am in no way a military thinker….
Just a question from an informed civilian…..
I have heard for years about the vaunted Israeli “Iron Dome” – I may have the name wrong…..their ultra superior missile defense system.
I have heard this system praised to the heavens multiple times even this year.
This video does not look good for the efficacy of that system. Is the “Iron Dome” offline?
aside from including an ad hoc “General School” in my self education curriculum, i aint military, either.
but from this rather close observer, iron dome looks to have turned out to be a lotta mere barking, after a certain saturation level of incoming.
takes several interceptors to kill a target…and the former are finite.
as well as really, really expensive.
a big high-dollar branch, waved threateningly in the air.
good enough for before-times, i suppose…but not now….and certainly not if all this goes truly crazy.
ball is in the Muslim court.
…if they finally grow a pair.
Israelis have had multiple layers of alleged missile defense systems: Arrow, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome, plus probably others, I think. These have never been really tested against “real” missile attacks–they were apparently fairly effective against random rocket launches by various Palestinian factions in the past, but that’s about it. So how good they might be in real life conditions were never known with any confidence and now, we are seeing the truth, it seems.
“Iron Dome” works splendidly when you’re fighting a rag-tag insurgency. Iron Dome + IDF’s totality of air defense doesn’t work against a barrage of >100 ballistic missiles from multiple vectors (Iran, perhaps Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen). No western air defense would work better.
And of course, one’s air defense works only as long as you have factories making missiles. Using first-tier missiles against drones powered by literal lawnmower-sized engines doesn’t leave much left over when the real ballistic missiles arrive.
I have read several mentions on this blog that the iron dome is overrated. Coupled with the fact that the BBC is reporting the missiles to be cruise missiles, which travel faster than the short range missiles. If the Iranians choose to use hypersonic missiles…
That, and Iron Dome is designed to be used against mortars and short range rockets, of the type typically fired from Gaza, or the Lebanon border. With missiles, range pretty is pretty much proportional to altitude and speed, so a much longer range missile from Iran is going to be moving a lot faster than a little tube launched short range rocket.
Pro-Russuan “Zigger” twitter regularly prefers to it as “Cardboard Dome”.
I think that’s Armchair Warlord’s coinage, he’s refreshingly dry.
It is amazing, WW3 may be breaking out in the Middle East and the first place I went for news was a bunch of amateur blogs that spend half their time shitposting anime waifu / fennec fox / manul pictures.
wiafu, yeah,lol.
what a world!
meanwhile, i ask my eldests girlfriend if she has a crazy aunt i could hook up with,lol
the philosophy X is full of hotness, as well…with actual phds, and prof positions.’
all far away from me*
id just be happy with a woman who’s at least tolerant of my aberrant lifestyle.
at this point, i dont even require english fluency.
(* it occurs to me that i came out here,30 years ago, to disappear,lol….seems ive outdone myself in that regard)
and, man…i just watched the whole bebo vid…lots of duplicates/repeats…but still, iron dome doesnt come close to being a dome of any kind…if this is representative of current performance.
(playing Vivaldi real loud at the wilderness bar while vid played)
and i have like 5 words of Arabic under my command, but i know “Allah hu akbar”
(sp-5)
and all those folks yammering sound excited…disappointed when iron dome does work, occasionally…like is a soccer match.
i can only imagine being so close to such things…i sit out of an evening and watch the 2 ballets…first, the cliff and barn swallows, doing their thing..then the dragon flies.
but neither of them will kill me and mine if they get knocked off course.(they never, ever get knocked off course)
Oh come come now good Doctor.
Just heard a retired general being interviewed on National Propaganda Radio ( oops, excuse me, NPR), and he was saying that when you see missiles hitting the ground that is because all terrific air defense systems like the Iron Dome and the Patriot Systems calculate the trajectory of incoming rockets and lets the ones that are not going to hit a target go through to hit the ground.
Remember the reporter also mentioned, Iran’s last missile salvo was intercepted at a 99% rate.
Why would they have any reason to lie?
Sarcasm off now.
If any radar system in the world can pinpoint the location and vector of an incoming ballistic missile so precisely that one can immediately (before the launch window for a successful interception is missed) differentiate whether it’s going to fall directly on the target or the empty field next door I’ll eat my hat.
As others have mentioned, Israel has multilayered anti-missile defenses. Iran has conscientiously updated its missile arsenal to counter each new Israeli deployment.
As far as I can tell, the only people who actually thought Iran couldn’t put plenty of warheads through Israeli defenses had no familiarity with the technical issues. There’s a lot of magical thinking around defense technology.
“The bomber will always get through”
Stanley Baldwin, 1936.
another video missile attack (sorry for the spamming)….
https://x.com/EyesOnSouth1/status/1841192067038326834
this time an entire electricity-free Gazan neighborhood celebrates as the Iranian missiles fly across the horizon.
It’s almost Biblical in its imagery. (sorry for mixing metaphors)
heres another from Gaza.
dude is obviously happy AF.
i would suppose that i would be, too(walk a mile, and all..)
https://x.com/RFN3138/status/1841168399134544301
This is also happening in the USA to at least some extent.
I work in the middle of a blue hive –
Right now there are probably dozens of young people marching up and down the town square – celebrating the bombing of Israel. All blue-haired tattoed, etc. These are all as far as I know big time Dem voters. They are chanting the most horrific anti-Biden and Kamala slogans I have heard yet in this campaign.
And now they are joined across the street by a much smaller contingent of Israel supporters – they are not chanting – but their anti Biden/Harris signs are for the ages. I think this is not really Jewish people – because I think this is a Holy Day for them – may be wrong.
But – the tweet above by Lambert seems to encompass this all – they have October Surprised their own candidate. It is probably one of the most spectacular political disasters I remember in my life. And the thing is – they have worked very very hard on this duplicity and incompetence – I wonder how this will all pay off for them.
“All blue-haired tattoed, etc. These are all as far as I know big time Dem voters.”
What if they don’t vote at all? Or they could be anarchist leaning or a number of things.
But true: they won’t be voting Harris.
easier to find a unicorn in america than it is an actual anarchist.
(Amfortas waves from his dead end dirt road in middle of nowhere redoubt)
*waves* anarchist here. theres a decent amount of us in vermont, although not in an organized fashion. at least nothing im formally a part of. but many close friends with strong feelings in agreement that are anarchist or adjacent.
i used to have blue hair, im far left, im an antizionist jew (since i was 10!) and i think the democrats are a joke and the republicans a tragedy. israel deserves whats coming to it, its behavior has been heinous since before i was born and they get away with murder by claiming any criticism to be an attack on jews. that being said, im not cheering this on. this is going to turn into WW3. nobody should be cheering this on nor israels actions that led up to this either.
WW3 is bad for everyone. left, right, straight, gay, normal hair, blue hair, israeli, palestinian, muslim, jew. doesnt matter. this will suck for everyone.
also, jewish people are jewish people whether they observe the religion or not. i was raised in it and left because of the hypocrisy (never again is only for jews in practice, but thats not what i was taught as a child in temple school), but i am still ethnically ashkenazi. the people protesting in favor of israel are likely jews and other zionists, its the new year tonight i believe, an important religious holiday but not as important as yom kippur… i expect this conflict to pop off by yom kippur, the holiest day of the jewish calendar, which is 10/12 this year.
I’m comfortable predicting this disaster seals NC for Harris. The NC mountains, Asheville notwithstanding, are the deep red side of the state. And all those little towns where there now isn’t even road access, let alone power. There may not be power for months in many of those areas. And we’re going to have an election in 5 weeks? It figures that the bluest part of the region, Asheville itself, will be back online before the surrounding areas are, and even it will struggle to be functional in time. I don’t think there are going to be very many people voting in a lot of those red counties. So put this state in the Harris column.
I see a lot of lawsuits and other disputes ahead–shades of 1876. This is a real opportunity for disenfranchisement en masse by the Democrats and I don’t see them refusing to take advantage of it, and there’s no Rutherford Hayes around.
The incentive certainly exists for both the WH and Gov. Cooper to slow walk aid to the region
i’m sometimes shocked to learn…again and again…that so many are just as cynical as i have been, for so long.
we’re dealing with both madness AND stupidity in the halls of power…so yeah…if there’s a way to do what y’all suggest to disenfranchise trumpers out there, they’ll do it.
then, if necessary..say…whocouldanode?…or blame some staffer nobody likes because he’s handsy.
If NC goes for Harris I would be very surprised. When you’ve lost Nooners…
Things like a hurricane concentrate the mind and here’s suggesting that the psychological impact will far outweigh the practical difficulties. Which is to say you are assuming the rest of NC is pro Harris even as the Dems are leaking support from minority groups that did go big for Biden.
Trump may be a boor and even a doofus at times but he did create a large real estate company and he was also president without managing to start, oh say, a war in Europe or the ME. Harris was almost a machine politician receiving many insider boosts for her rise through the system. If she can’t make it through a press conference how is she going to make it through….anything? It’s not morning in America if it ever was. We don’t need an ode to joy for president.
I anticipate that there will be a lot of irregularities especially in the red areas hit by Helene: even if the voters are willing, even eager, the administration and logistics will have “problems.” The real disputes will be over how “intentional” these problems are.
Yes, there is an implicit assumption that the rest of the state will pretty much a coin toss at most, which seems reasonable given the past election results and demographics. (Dems lose “old Democrats” and younger men of all races, but gain younger women with college education). NC seems to be the kind of state with such “interesting” mix of population that, ceteris paribus, this is not an improbable outcome. “Ceteris paribus” is doing a lot of work here, though: I am really wondering if the locals can add a bit more information on how the rest of the state is reacting to the plight to their west. Are they disappointed in Biden? Enough to reconsider their choice?
re: “assuming the rest of NC is pro Harris”….. it’s not an assumption, you can look at the county by county blue/red map for yourself
Walter Kirn says he doesn’t believe the polls. I don’t either. And for the scientific minded there’s empirical evidence since they have been wrong about Trump support in the past.
The Dems are running a divide and conquer campaign in an atmosphere of threat and–among normal people–a desire for solidarity. Hurricanes, nuclear war take the rich as well as the poor.
Even assuming away the psychological underpinnings of choice (Terry Flynn is more knowledgeable about this than I), there are sampling problems everywhere: a lot of voters are hard to sample. One reason polls tended to be as good as they have been in the past is that how likely different types of voters are to be sampled was pretty closely correlated with turnout–if you can’t reach them, they probably won’t vote. This really hasn’t been the case for a number of elections in the past: Obama did noticeably better than his polls in 2012, especially in the Midwest. Then we have 2016 and 2020 where Trump outperformed his polls by about 3% nationally, more in some localities than others. In all these cases, people who didn’t vote often showed up in unusually large numbers.
Furthermore, contra all the PMC stereotyping, these voters are not easy to figure out: while they are definitely not “moderates,” they tend to hold needs, views, and values that don’t match the usual Left-Right spectrum closely. (and this is an important reason why they don’t vote–very few people in politics “talk” to them.) So deducing how they would vote is not an easy chore for anyone.
Finally, modern polling depends on not just counting what people you polled say about politicians, but piecing together what you heard from people from different demographics and geographies and reconstruct what the electorate you expect to see. This is the process that pollsters don’t explain to the public at all and they really should since it’s mostly a subjective process–at best, it’s based on educated guesses. A lot of fishiness can be introduced into the numbers at this stage. It doesn’t really mitigate the problems you run into by not being able to poll enough “weird” people as noted above–in fact, it can exacerbate problems because a handful of “strange” voters in a hard-to-catch demographic would completely dominate what you expect that group to do.
So, plenty of reasons to not trust polls as they are, but, past election results are past election results and we have a pretty good idea what makes a lot of people tick. Plus, we have decent idea how different groups of people are distributed geographically. So I think it’s a good guess that most of NC is close enough to being a toss up and turnout in the hurricane-afflicted area will be important for Trump’s chances.
Today I saw my first two national guard huge-size helicopters flying overhead.
We’d need to look at historical voting data by county or district to see what the propensity is to vote in rural NC, and what the breakdown is. Maybe this will be deeply impactful, maybe not. I agree that Asheville will surely be back up and people able to vote by November that are registered there.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-10-01/sean-diddy-combs-class-action-lawsuit-100-people/
More than 100 people accuse Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs of sexual abuse, exploitation
Is this the world record?
I don’t know, ask Bill Clinton.
There was a class action against Clinton?
Clinton didn’t and doesn’t have any class to act upon.
Well, don’t forget Epstein.
Opportunism perhaps? Where were these people 2 years ago?
I wonder how all of them are going to prove they were within 10 feet of Combs.
All 100 or so.
All at once? Impressive!
Well, just heard a long, powerful press conference from one of the lawyers.
It’s not a class action. Each case will be tried individually and dude is basically saying the entertainment biz needs to be very nervous.
And he said the day will come when the other names involved will be named.
Names that will shock.
Multiple states mainly: CA, NY, GA & FL
Youngest victim: 9 at the time of an incident.
For celebrities? Jimmy Savile has him beat.
For those not as famous? Malachi York of the Nuwaubians. (The only guy to found his own church, synagogue, mosque, Egyptian temple, Masonic Lodge, and Native American Tribe.)
Readers, I have added orts and scraps (including the Biden Administration’s October Surprise for Kamala — greenlighting Israel’s invasion of Lebanon). Please peruse carefully!
The business about SSD is apparently well known. Data folks that I talked to were saying, even years ago, that you need to keep data in old spinning disks if you want the data to be there more than a year or two.
Yes, I use a dual drive network attached storage. Very easy to setup and use for backups/long term storage, and a bonus as a music/video server. My home ‘cloud’ if you will. I ran one for 12 years, (having never used the spare drive) that I retired, and now use as an occasional backup to the new one and is stored offsite.
> you need to keep data in old spinning disks
But I want to protect against protracted power failure. Presumbly “old spinning disks” includes CDs as well as hard disks? Will CDs even copy gigabytes in a reasonable amount of time?
Should have said spinning metal disks, since HDD’s were exactly what they were talking about. My understanding is that data on CDs don’t age well either.
> data on CDs don’t age well either
So what works? Anything?!
I have 6 Synology NAS devices – the storage capability ranges from 4TB to 32 TB –
Every shred of data is backed up in 2 different locations – and they are all in a Faraday cage. I have one right by the bedroom – that can be instantly disconnected in case of a fire or flood – one is in another location – and the other 4 are in my office at home.
These are devices that use HDDs – and have an algorithm to store data. I have now had one for about 9 years – the others are newer. When a HDD goes out – you just swap it out with another – and off you go. DO NOT EVER MAKE THE MISTAKE OF JUST HAVING ONE AND THINKING YOU ARE SAFE. View each multi-HDD device as one thing that could blow up at any time.
It has worked so far – and it is seamless. I have not had a shred of data loss. Over the years – I have had to replace HDD though – 4 times.
Six?!? Wow. And I though I was paranoid about backing up data.
I have complete backups on three hard drives, two of which remain offsite at all times. [There are also a couple of active copies in the house, but those are more for convenience (e.g., whoops, I didn’t mean to delete that) than for disaster protection.]
Ditto. I only have 4…
I have all kinds of data on patients individually and also way more on all kinds of issues I have followed for years. Many of these files are large image files – and large video files – like ECHOs. I feel this is a sacred duty of mine to maintain this – in the event it is needed for individual patient care or more commonly for research. I have multiple epidemiology colleagues and others who know about my efforts and how compulsive I have been and tap me constantly to run this or that data search.
I have been psychotically compulsive my entire life to store this data. My family thinks I am nuts – but it has been supremely useful already. Just the past 4 years it has shown its worthiness time and time again as I have done queries about medical conditions over my career – and have been able to make comparisons to cohorts of COVID vaccine patients or COVID itself. Interestingly, the data I was pulling out did not fit the narrative of a few years ago – it is now obvious looking back and where we are now how correct my data was. This is invaluable to me as I deliberate about patient care. And many of my colleagues who find all kinds of insightful things therein.
It sounds nuts – but I would not have it any other way. But it takes up tremendous amounts of storage.
Not to mention digitizing every note I have ever written all the way back to high school – everything I have read, etc. Tens of thousands of newspaper clippings and medical articles – copies of passages in literature I find very insightful – all with my own notes right there. All of my music files I have ripped from CDs – and video files I have ripped from DVDs – all of those CD/DVD are stored in boxes in the attic. Every card and letter I have ever received. I am not sure there is a house large enough in the USA to hold all the media that would be required.
And I know it is very fragile and will likely all be dust in the wind very soon – digital media is very very precarious. I do not have the answers to that.
Not nuts. Hard drive failure probably top 3 or 5 type of calls I received when I worked tech support.
Ask the naysayers to get a quote for professional data recovery.
SSD always made me nervous because it runs silent. Disk platter drives I can hear them dying
Yup we use Synology NAS too, especially since Netgear existed the NAS space. Really easy to setup, doesn’t run Windows (proprietary ESM OS, Linux kernel Mod), has good lasting power. Don’t need really expensive hard drives, LFF 7.2k RPM doorstops are great.
Tape drives are still used for backups LINK
You will have to get used to serial access which is a pain.
Tape is not super reliable in the cosmic scheme of things, relying on the magnetism of small regions of tape (like a rotating HD, basically), but also the mylar tape substrate can degrade with time and temperature.
Seems like we need something where physical alterations are made in the recording surface, e. g., a laser burning pits in a physical surface to represent bits. This would obviously a a one-time-use “archival” medium. I think this more or less describes “stamped” commercial CDs, but I’m not surewhat happens with writeable CDs.
Like doug said. A pair of old school hard drives, attached as networked storage and set up to make incremental backups daily. (or hourly or whatever, just as long as it’s automatic and not relying on fallible human habits)
For backup, for non-corporate, non-video intensive data, you’re better off with older gear. Like these days, no more than 1TB drives. The smaller the capacity, the more disk area is allocated to each bit, so is in principle more reliable. Also don’t cheap out on the model selected, spend the extra for the ‘office’ model and not the ‘home’ or ‘gamer’ quality. Some of the brands have slower, clunkier models that they claim are better for backup use. (whether that’s because they just slower, or if they’re actually more reliable is anyone’s guess)
Old spinning disks for backup is what I saw from a techie on YT. Regularly see guys work on old PCs from the 80s, and they often get the old drives to work enough to extract the files. The YT channel ‘Adrian’s Digital Basement’ is always fun to watch for stuff like this.
I would not use them for daily use, just attach them for backup, move your files, then power off and place somewhere dry and safe.
I wouldn’t recommend CD-R media. They hold too little data and are too slow.
A better bet would be the “archival” grades of DVD±R and BD-R media, either of which should last many years.
But the approach of backing up to multiple mechanical hard drives that others have mentioned is probably the best.
Ancient Tech from Ur and Sumer works across millennia. Those old business records on baked clay tablets from the Land Between the Rivers is still readable, if somewhat cumbersome.
And provide us with some truly timeless classics.
Ah yes. I saw that recently on a site called “Wallace’s Mysteries of Antiquity.” It seems that rapacious business people are eternal.
vinyl works potentially forever, if yer super duper careful with it.
learn to play a banjo.
it fits you, Lambert.
carry the music you love in your heart, and it cannot be taken from you.
After some recent upgrade annoyances, I’ve taken a deep dive into updating my data archival strategy and the conclusion I’ve come to is to use both external hard disks and archival quality blu-ray discs.
Here’s the best summary I’ve found regarding the longevity of recordable media:
Longevity of Recordable CDs, DVDs and Blu-rays — Canadian Conservation Institute
Blu-ray discs can store up to 128GB of data per disc, but Sony (the only manufacturer of the 4-layer 128GB discs) has recently announced that they are shutting down the factory that produces them and is exiting the market. Time to stock up on those now…
M-Disc discs are supposed to have a 1000 year lifespan, but my understanding is that the testing was performed only on DVD discs so the blu-rays might not last as long. For my purposes, anything with a 20+ year lifespan is good enough.
My plan is to use a mix of single and multiple layer blu-ray discs from different manufacturers to spread the risk of getting dodgy media around a bit and then to keep a set of discs and an external hard drive offsite.
Brand name external blu-ray drives go for about $100 and discs go from anywhere between $2.00 for single layer 25GB discs to $10.00 for 4-layer 128GB discs. Considering how irreplaceable all of my data are, this is a bargain.
Hope this helps.
of course all of this assumes reliable and steady electricity.
i think about all the (acidic) ink it would cost me o print out the lyrics and at least chords for my 8 gigabyte music library….
not even worth it, unless i have a hall full of scribes, writing on parchment.
for decades.
ie: hafta have a paper making apparatus, too…and the feedstock for that(easy enough with grass and bamboo,etc…but lye!)
“They” want us to forget where we come from.
so
do not forget your own history.
pass it on, orally.
again and again, so they remember.
because we’re in fall of rome times right about now.
where everything is forgotten.
I hear you on that. If electricity becomes a thing of the past, I’m pretty sure I won’t be around long enough to have to worry about my data or who I can pass it on to.
I haven’t done a ton of research in this area but, if memory serves, prints made with pigment-based ink jet printers on acid free paper have a lifespan of 100-200 years so that will give your hall of scribes plenty of time to make additional copies when the power goes out for good. ;)
Keeping a copy of your data on paper or on archival discs has the added bonus of being able to survive the next Carrington Event.
@ Amfortas
Here is a link to a pdf that I have which might be worth your while looking over-
https://aiccm.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1_caring_for_cultural_material_1.pdf
Usually high-end storage providers don’t guarantee their spinning disk for more than five years. Last year at the office we retired an old storage system, and entertained for a while the idea of testing how many disks would restart after a proper shutdown. Unfortunately we had to pull the disks for a shredder service before we had time to do it.
Some people claim LTO tapes would survive a two or three decades – if stored properly. The big question is if your LTO tape reader is operational after that time…
Y, no. Recordable CDs and DVDs store their data on an ink layer, which is expected to last 5 ~ 10 yrs. (Pressed music CDs, like what we got music from in the 80s – 90s, store the data encoded into physical pits in the substrate, so they last potentially forever)
For reliability, you’d want a backup spinning hard drive. Better would be two, one attached to your file server and used for a daily incremental backup, and the other stored offsite somewhere, unpowered.
“CDR”s are impractical for data, as you say it will take forever to copy gigabytes, and you’ll need to do a lot of swapping and then deal with the possibility of having files half on one disk, for example. You could use recordable DVDs, which would help with the swapping, less so with the time needed. But again, they both suffer from decay in the ink media, and there’s no way to do incremental backups.
The first self-burned discs I’ve read from that I created almost 20 years ago did not go the distance, so to speak. But that isn’t a representative sample. But I never expected them to last that long, either.
Archival quality writable DVD’s are rated up to 100 yrs, depending on how much you want to spend. About $1.50 ea for 4.7GB 100yr gold DVD’s last time I looked.
As for transfer speeds, you can buy drives with reliable write speeds of 24X the regular read/write speed. Internal Drives would be fastest, as they would be rate limited by the drive itself, most likely. However, if you are using an external drive, you may be speed limited by your cable protocol (USB 2.0 or 3.0. USB-C, Firewire, etc.) I’m not knowledgeable enough and don’t have all the equipment to give any real answer as to what setup would give you what real-time transfer speed to fill up a 4.7GB DVD.
For me, with an internal 16x drive, it takes a few minutes to fill a DVD, maybe less. It’s slow enough that I do something else for a couple or three minutes while the DVD finishes up. I suppose it could also be somewhat dependent on the software you use to burn the disk and the amount of available RAM for the writing software to use when you are writing to the DVD.
CDs only hold ~700MB (from memory), for 4GB-ish you want at least writable DVDs or even writable Blurays. None of them are going to last that long unless you spring for archival disks, which are a tad expensive. Plus, IIRC they’re only good for a few decades, too.
There are other, more archival writable media, but those are very expensive both for the media and and for the drive units. Probably too expensive for most consumers.
I’ve been backing up and storing important to me data on home built (because geek, and I’ve been doing this since before NAS were a thing you could buy off the shelf). My current server has a combo of SSDs and HDDs in it, with all of the important machines in the house backing up to it. Data from the server gets backed up daily on external spinning rust drive(s), too. Even then, I tend to replace the HDDs every 3-4 years, earlier if they show any sign of degradation. So far, all data on that server including files and archives going back 25 years are still accessible.
Either way, I suspect that we’ll leave a lot fewer traces for future generations – most of the photos of the last 15+ years are digital, hardly anybody buys music on physical media and we’re already losing the ability to decode early digital artifacts. Yet, at the same time we produce a lot more image and moving picture artifacts than generations before us.
I’d be curious to find out how much of my own photos and videos are going to be usable in 20-30 yearrs.
yeah.
from my childhood, my parents’ childhood, and even my grandparents and somewhat my great grandparents’ times…there are like millions of pictures.
all right there on the shelf in Mom’s front hallway.
and on her walls, etc.
we have pics of great great grandmothers and great great grand aunts, etc…
many of whom nobody knows who they are, because the new, then, ink that grandmothers used to scribble such information on the back is faded(so the stealth forgetting effort began there)
but even if i print out some of the zillion fotos of my boys childhood…unless i spend bigtime on printer and ink and photopaper….it will be gone when the power goes out here.
whatever i can afford to print out will be gone a few years later.
as will the bulk of my library, in a lil more time…due to acidic ink and paper.
next-quarter thinking brought to the root and branch of familial…and even civilisational… continuity.
like a cancre.
The only thing that really lasts is stone but even that weathers. Forget steam punk we need stone punk.
is that why the older music files i pirated from yootoob tend to degrade in quality over time?
i suspected as such, but am far too akin to General Ludd to know fer sure.
(see: cynicism, above)
Get a NAS w/traditional spinning hard drives.
Get a NAS w/the largest number of drives that fits you needs using “RAID 10.” (you need at least four hard drives for RAID 10)
If you want to manage costs, you can buy used hard drives from a reputable eBay (there are many sellers who handle off-lease corporate equipment). the “RAID 10” should protect you if one hard drive fails.
Or for a basic solution, 1. get a USB to SATA connector cable; 2. get a blank laptop drive that uses the SATA interface, 3. you can connect that laptop drive to your computer using #1 for basic archiving.
I had success with goHardDrive; they refurb data center disks. The price per GB is excellent, and if you’re running them in sets, failure is probably not a big concern. My first one was DOA, and they immediately sent a replacement after I returned the failed drive. It has worked 100% ever since, 18 months.
You can always count on the Akashic records. Access is limited to your spiritual status. Just saying
RE. the Politico story and older voters.
This is an interesting development which seems to comport with what I’ve seen in the polls about demographics and support. Earlier, before “the debate,” it was Biden that was doing well among the seniors and other “old Democrats” (e.g. Teamsters). Trump was unexpectedly doing well among the young and minorities (mostly male). I think the younger women were mostly reticent to choose between them (especially those who were college educated). I think Harris won over the younger women. I have trouble imagining the young men (especially without college education) swinging over to Harris, but, it’s worth noting that these are the least reliable demographic in terms of turnout. But Harris loses whatever edge that Biden brought with the “old Democrats” (including the literal older folks). So, if we account for turnout and voter distributions, did Harris actually gain on the net by securing the younger women vote? I don’t know: women vote more than men, especially the college educated ones, after all. They are generally more numerous in solid blue states, though, and the gains and losses in the various swing states seem more or less a wash to me without looking up the numbers carefully.
That would make Trump the one on the right: https://whalebonemag.com/behind-scenes-jaws/
That’s a movie I’ve watched a couple of times and now that you reminded me of it I’ll watch it again.
Ya ever see a Sharks Eyes….
Friends and I watched it last summer and noticed that in several scenes the townsfolk are wearing jackets although it was supposedly in the midst of summer vacation time. We wondered what the story behind that was.
North American Deep South Zeitgeist Report for 1 October ’24.
Is it just me, or is there a noticeable surge in online phishing attacks recently? Our rather reclusive household had four such malefic e-mails yesterday. We usually get one a week. Today, one so far.
The ruses used were first, the old, you have a package waiting in the Post Office warehouse. Contact us to verify your identity and information to release it. Another one was from India, the heading was in Hindi script no less, informing us of a pending charge against our bank account. Please contact us to verify your identity and information. Another was the old “Suspicious Activity” gag, this one purporting to be from E-bay. A ‘suspicious’ charge to your account was noticed by E-bay security. Please contact us and verify your identity and information.
Seeing the above, I am more adamant than ever not to store any personal information on “the cloud.” I never ‘save’ passwords that way. (Indeed, I hand write them all down on rolodex cards, alphabetically indexed.)
Second, this past week I have seen my first political yard signs. Two Harris/Waltz signs in the yard of a corner house rented to some college students very close to where we live. Not many signs of any sort otherwise. The enthusiasm level concerning this election seems lacking. Definitely lower than the previous two Presidential elections.
The grocery stores are at their new normal of bare competence. The basics are there, but not in profusion. One curious exception to this is a periodic shortage of dairy products. Several times recently, the food stores have run low on milk, cheese, etc. These deficiencies have taken several days to remedy, on multiple occasions. Have the grocery chains gone over to the “just in time” stocking method? That would be bad if true. Real emergencies would be somewhat worse without the former local warehouse buffer stocks. But then, what do I know? I don’t have an MBA to my name.
In traditional quadrennial fashion, gasoline prices are still at recent historical lows, leading up to the election. Regular is priced at 244.9 USD per gallon at the ‘cheaper’ service stations.
Seeing the writing on the wall, we are stocking up a bit in anticipation of supply chain disruptions. I discover from conversations with several acquaintances that we are not alone in this. One of the local mail carriers carries a Get Home Bag/Backpack along with them, even when running the route.
A sign of the times is that the local WalMart has been running out of “popular” calibres of ammunition lately. I was there last week when a case of 9mm parabellum was unboxed at the gun counter. (I was looking for a previously popular calibre that is now extremely hard to find anywhere.) While I was there, say fifteen minutes, two people came by, saw the ammo on the countertop, and called friends from right there and informed them of the ammo being in stock. One woman bought several boxes for herself and several boxes for her friend on the other end of the telephone line. The moral of that story is that people are scared and are reacting with close to panic behaviours. To keep me somewhat grounded in that sphere of life, Phyllis will remind me that I can only use one firearm effectively at a time. What would I need with more than one or two? Good point.
Now, it looks like there will be another hurricane in the Gulf this week. Here’s hoping it bypasses the East Coast.
Stay safe all.
I’ve gotten texts from some online banks I never heard of in the past (and one from a fin inst that I had heard of). I thought they were phishing attacks, then I found out later that some crooks opened accounts in my name. :/ The person at the one fin inst that I had heard of was actually very helpful and explained the details of what was going on. The ones from the online banks, not very helpful at all.
Re: ammo, if you need more than one magazine’s worth, you’re probably dead
“I had always assumed unpowered SSDs were stable indefinitely. Since I vehemently oppose the cloud, I suppose I’ll have to get a CD burner or some such.”
Alas, SSDs are not indefinitely stable. Especially if stored at higher temperatures. Some NVRAM is so bad that SSD manufacturers had to implement “bit rot” scans in the firmware, to continually sweep the media for weakening sectors and to re-write them before the degradation overwhelms the ECC (error-correction) provisions. But that only works if the SSD is energized regularly.
Alas, most optical media (CD-R, DVD±R, and BD-R) is also susceptible to bit rot, especially if stored at high temperatures or where there is exposure to sun. There are “archival” grades that do much better, but those are significantly more expensive.
It can even happen with mechanical hard drives, and it’s getting worse as the patches of material used to store bits get smaller and smaller.
I found a couple of articles on the subject:
https://geekflare.com/bit-rot-prevention/
https://www.techadvisor.com/article/741570/bit-rot-how-to-avoid-the-slow-death-of-hard-drives-and-ssds.html
My strategy has been to back up to multiple mechanical hard drives and to regularly sweep those drives to detect bad sectors, but that’s a more elaborate approach than most people are willing to follow.
I’m going to need a filing system for back up drives.
I’m not sure I want to wade into the masculinity post, but the crisis of masculinity meme does deserve at least a little expansion. The crisis is simultaneously semiotic as well as performative. As the meme goes, without conspicuously masculine men, society grows weaker in ultimately undefinable but very perceptible ways as social norms dictated by these men disappear and get replaced with general malaise. It lines up with a similar meme, the crisis of competence, which has a similar premise.
As far as I can tell, this is all wholly unsupported, empirical speculation. My instincts likewise tell me that this is not what the meme is actually talking about; it is a proxy for discussing leadership, power, and the identity of those chosen (and chosen by whom) to wield it. Yes, my own empirical speculation: there are conservative identitarians, too!
Yves gets a nice name drop at the 59-minute mark of Alexander Mercouris’ latest podcast.
So since there’s interest, and this is rough and dirty based on manually transcribing off the FEMA disaster map of effected counties, there are 22. Mistakes mine. This is number of Trump votes in 2020. And this is definitely a significant number of voters. The sum is: 543,578 voters in 2020 for Trump. In 2020, Trump received 2,758,773 votes and Biden received 2,684,292 votes. The margin was: 74,481. A small number. Buncombe includes Asheville, but naturally there are outlying areas as well that probably have more possible Republican voters.
Alexander: 15,888
Allegheny: 4,527
Ashe: 11,451
Buncombe: 62,412
Burke: 31,019
Caldwell: 32,119
Catawba: 56,588
Clay: 5,112
Cleveland: 33,798
Gaston: 73,033
Haywood: 22,834
Henderson: 40,032
Jackson: 11,356
Lincoln: 36,341
Macon: 14,211
McDowell: 16,883
Mitchell: 7,090
Polk: 7,689
Transylvania: 11,636
Watauga: 14,451
Wilkes: 27,592
Yancey: 7,516
Sources
– https://www.fema.gov/disaster/4827/designated-areas
– https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/north-carolina/
Taibbi has posted Drinking Rules for tonight! I’m starting at the end and working backwards…
The rules:
DRINK EVERY TIME…
Walz mentions Project 2025.
Vance questions Walz’s military record.
Anyone says “Proud of my service.”
Vance accuses Walz of favoring socialism or having ties to the Chinese Communist Party.
Walz accuses Vance of fomenting anti-Haitian bigotry.
Vance mentions a colorful family member. Double if the relative is armed or high or both.
Walz brings up January 6th or claims democracy is on the ballot.
Vance brings up the Minneapolis riots.
Either candidate mentions the middle class or the working class. (Do not do shots of hard alcohol for this rule.)
Either candidate uses folksy rhetoric or Midwestern slang, or the word “folks” is uttered, at all.
Anyone says, “Right here in New York City.”
Either candidate mentions Hurricane Helene or the situation in Asheville, North Carolina.
Either candidate accuses the other of being insufficiently protective of Israel or Ukraine.
A moderator fact-checks either candidate.
You feel like driving off a cliff in despair.
See you tonight.
The eternal question: stupid or evil?
Since the evil tend to lack empathy, they are prone to sloppiness. My sense from the networks is the guardians of “truth” are astonished the little peoples struck back against the white race. They couldn’t conceive their would be repercussions. This explains the Biden foreign policy. In general he can’t conceive the world has changed and sees everything through the lens of a used car dealer in Iowa.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/30/us-israel-military-hezbollah-00181797
US officials quietly backed Israel’s military push against Hezbollah
“Senior White House figures privately told Israel that the U.S. would support its decision to ramp up military pressure against Hezbollah — even as the Biden administration publicly urged the Israeli government in recent weeks to curtail its strikes, according to American and Israeli officials.
Presidential adviser Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk, the White House coordinator for the Middle East, told top Israeli officials in recent weeks that the U.S. agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s broad strategy to shift Israel’s military focus to the north against Hezbollah….
….Behind the scenes, Hochstein, McGurk and other top U.S. national security officials are describing Israel’s Lebanon operations as a history-defining moment — one that will reshape the Middle East for the better for years to come……”
You missed a sentence. The one where it says ‘What could possibly go wrong?’
Yeah, read that article earlier with “WTF are they thinking” droning in my head. I don’t think stupid and evil even begin to describe what a mess this will be.
More lack of executive function, racing! Scrambling! Maybe next time we can use bumbling.
Biden Scrambles to Contain Economic and Political Fallout of Port Strike
Complicated indeed, because they can’t pull what they did with the railway workers and burn them. It is weird that unions don’t ensure that contract renewals are always a month before a presidential election, for a shot at real leverage. Shrug.
Dunno if anyone else has seen this Twitter account…..finally a seemingly reliable, clinically-detached OSINT account that is waded through the constant stream of social media vids….and physically geolocating the videos.
It definitely looks like Nevatim Air Base, Tel Nof Air Base, and Mossad HQ got hit were targets. Will enough vids circulate once day breaks to do a some sort of half-way decent damage assessment? Because obviously the IDF and Pentagon say that the attacks for ineffective.
https://x.com/GeoConfirmed
I did see Times of Israel reporting that IDF sensors are preventing them from reporting about strikes.
There are some unverified reports of Israel’s law enforcement agencies threatening people with arrest if they publish photos or video from strike sites.
Also unverified, but there are claims that Iran used hypersonic missiles to strike Israeli air defense sites first – which would explain some of the non-intercepted volleys we’ve seen.
On the TV toob.
Turned on my TV this morning to find breaking news of the Iranian missle attacks. Videos of a swatch of many missles in the sky. A few captured exploding as they hit the ground. Then Israeli spokes people doing their best impression of Monte Python’s Black knight — Nobody hurt, we stopped them with our iron shield.
I had to turn it off.
——
Turned it on again this afternoon and immediately was given this…
“Israeli defense forces say their air defense systems intercepted nearly all of the missles along with help from the US destroyers stationed in the region…”
This just after showing video clips with batches of a dozen or so missles streaking down and all exploding as they reach the ground.
So I guess the above statement is true if you also allow the ground as a valid place to intercept the missiles.
——
Sheesh.
Who you gonna trust, what we’re tellin ya or yer lyin eyes?
“Over 40 Airlines Could Be Flying Boeing Jets With Risky Rudder Parts”
Nothing like being the pilot of a Boeing 737 and finding that your rudder is jammed. How would you steer that plane then? Probably by varying the thrust form the engines on each side to shift the plane in one direction. How did this happen?
‘Collins Aerospace, the actuator’s manufacturer, determined that the unit’s sealed bearing was incorrectly assembled. The unsealed actuator can gather moisture and freeze should the temperature drop low enough, compromising the plane’s rudder.’
Gaachh! The production line again. The same one under pressure and shortcuts are being made, dodgy parts are used and violations are being deliberately covered up by management.
“Biden was noticeably fighting back coughs”
Biden could cough a lung out and he would never admit that it was due to Covid. Doing so would mean that his declaring the pandemic over a failure on his part.
Biden: I ended Covid
Narrator: The reality, however, was that COVID ended him
::roll credits:
Ironic sign placed above Kamala at primanti bros….
‘Step aside coffee. This is a job for alcohol ‘
#Nooners
Hooolleeeee sh**
That was brutal.
This bit:
> Awful is—well, awful. But he was president for four years, we didn’t all explode, institutions held, the threatened Constitution maintained. So …
Oh my … almost wants to feel like and example of denying the antecedent … almost … :) It’s kind of implied isn’t it? But can’t really qualify without an opening hypothetical proposition.
Let’s reconstruct it. Nooners is implying that if he were (that) awful, everyone would have exploded, institutions would not have held, and the constitution would not have been maintained …
… but that didn’t happen …
… so … he’s not (that) awful.
Are we still working on the assumption that Nooners
is a mouthpiece forspeaks in favor of #HRC? If so, we can absolutely book it that #HRC will shed no tears if Harris does not become the 1st Madame President of the USA.msdnc postscript appropriately vapid….holy toledo.
For those keeping track, 1 October was Pandemic Day 1,663 since the official emergency declaration by the Trump administration in 2020. That’s 4.56 years and counting.
This is quite the stochastic eugenics campaign.
In that USAToday article about increases voter registration you have to go through a few other blurbs to get to the one that notes the Trump campaign has been running voter registration operations in swing states. This jibes with a tweet I saw about a month ago, which compared the numbers of new Republican voter registrations to new Democratic registrations. While a couple of states were even most had significantly more new Republicans. As USA Today notes that doesn’t mean they are going to vote and how, but it is yet another sign that Trump 2024 is being more strategic and in a pro democracy way than the moribund Democrats are thinking.