2:00PM Water Cooler 10/10/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Tropical Mockingbird (Mayan), Reserva de la Biosfera Rio Celestun, Yucatán, Mexico. “Recorded in coastal desert scrub on the edge of a dried salt lagoon lined with mangrove. Low, distant rumble from a motor boat can be heard, especially in the second segment.”

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In Case You Might Miss…

1. Harris leads in the burbs (poll)
2. 2024 state round-up
3. Boeing negotiations stalled; another QA debacle.
4. “The illusion of information adequacy”

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Less than thirty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error, Trump gained a few inches of ground in the trench warfare (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

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“Exclusive: Harris overtakes Trump among suburban voters, Reuters/Ipsos polling shows” [Reuters]. “Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has erased Republican rival Donald Trump’s advantage in the vast middle of American society: suburban residents and middle-income households, an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling shows.

Since President Joe Biden ended his flagging reelection bid on July 21, Vice President Harris has pulled into the lead in both of these large demographic groups, reinvigorating Democrats’ prospects in the Nov. 5 election, though the race remains exceptionally close. Suburbanites, who make up about half of the U.S. electorate and are as racially diverse as the nation at large, are a key prize. Biden beat Trump in suburban counties by about six percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Before Biden dropped out, Trump was leading him 43% to 40% among suburbanites in Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in June and July, reflecting the Democrat’s struggle to energize supporters. Harris began closing the gap when she launched her campaign in July and led Trump 47% to 41% among suburban voters in polling across September and October. That represents a nine-point swing in the Democrat’s favor, according to the analysis of six Reuters/Ipsos polls that included responses from over 6,000 registered voters. During the same periods, Trump went from leading Biden 44% to 37% among voters in households that earn between $50,000 and $100,000 – roughly the middle third of the nation – to trail Harris 43% to 45%, also a nine-point swing away from Trump. The figures had margins of error of around 3 percentage points. Trump carried this group 52%-47% in 2020, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of exit polls.” • See also the Jacobin poll in PA.

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Kamala (D): Basically, yeah:

it was kinda cool those three weeks Kamala campaigned on "Republicans are weird and we're not going back" before deciding to pivot to "Republicans are my friends and they're good and we can do Republican policy even better than they can," the strategy that already lost to Trump

— So famous and good at sketch comedy (@RuckCohlchez) October 10, 2024

Sadly, Kamala or whoever picked Walz before the pivot, following which they struggled to make use of him (and to the question of “Who’s the real Kamala? Before the pivot or after?” I answer “There is no real Kamala”).

Kamala (D): “Harris Calls DeSantis ‘Selfish,’ Biden Praises Him as ‘Very Gracious'” [RealClearPolitics]. • Biden’s still President. Harris picking out the drapes during a hurricane isn’t a smart move.

Kamala (D): “Harris Rails Against Corporate Landlords While Taking Donations From Blackstone Billionaire” [Sludge (Carla)]. “In late July, speaking to a crowd of more than 10,000 people at her first campaign rally in Atlanta, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris vowed to go after corporations that buy up homes and jack up rent. ‘We will take on corporate landlords and cap unfair rent increases,’ Harris said to great applause. The Harris campaign has made taking on corporate landlords a major plank of its plans to help make life more affordable for the middle class, and it has become a common theme at her rallies. In her Aug. 16 plan for an ‘opportunity economy,’ the campaign outlined the steps Harris would take to go after these real estate investors during her first 100 days in office…. While she campaigns on the issue, the Harris campaign is being backed by the president of the largest corporate landlord in the country, a company that her longtime political advisors are currently helping to defeat a California ballot measure that would expand rent control. Jonathan Gray, the billionaire president and chief operating officer of investment firm Blackstone, donated $413,000 to the Harris Action Fund in late July, just after President Biden dropped out of the race. Gray also donated $50,000 to the fund last June, while Biden was the nominee, plus $6,600 to the Biden campaign—funds that are now controlled by the Harris campaign…. Blackstone, a massive alternative investment management company with over $1 trillion in assets under management, is the largest landlord in the country, owning and managing almost 350,000 units of rental housing, according to a report from the Private Equity Stakeholder Project (PESP).” • “Opportunity” for whom?

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Trump (R): “Trump’s small-dollar donor fundraising is beset by confusion and fatigue” [Associated Press]. “Donald Trump’s contributions from small-dollar donors have plummeted since his last bid for the White House, presenting the former president with a financial challenge as he attempts to keep pace with Democrats’ fundraising machine. Fewer than a third of the Republican’s campaign contributions have come from donors who gave less than $200 — down from nearly half of all donations in his 2020 race, according to an analysis by The Associated Press and OpenSecrets, an organization that tracks political spending. The total collected from small donors has also declined, according to the analysis. Trump raised $98 million from such contributors through June, a 40% drop compared to the $165 million they contributed during a corresponding period in his previous presidential race. The dip has forced Trump to rely more on wealthy donors and groups backed by them, a shift that cuts into the populist message that first propelled him to the White House. The decline in donations could not come at a worse time for Trump. Democrats have raised massive sums from small-dollar donors this cycle. President Joe Biden and then Vice President Kamala Harris have raised a staggering $285 million from such donors since April 2023, representing more than 40% of their fundraising, according to data from OpenSecrets.”

Trump (R): “Trump Spreads His Politics of Grievance to Nonwhite Voters” [New York Times]. “For all the frequent laments about how left-leaning politicians divide the country through ‘identity politics,’ it appears to be Mr. Trump in this race who is making the most explicit identity-based arguments for voters to support his policies.” Well, FAFO, Democrats. More: “‘He’s way more explicit than most prior candidates with these explicit appeals to Black voters and Latino voters that pit their various identity groups against each other,’ said Michael Tesler, a professor of political science at the University of California, Irvine, who cowrote a book about how Mr. Trump wields white identity politics. ‘There’s a unified grievance in terms of ‘I’m not getting my fair share.'” • Yes, that’s capitalism. From a level closer to the ground, is a “unified grievance” really identity politics any more? (We might also speculate that one aspect of a PMC’s professioanl life — and personal life, if they have a nannie for little Madison or a yard man — is dealing with the lower orders, who are annoyingly, and perpetually, aggrieved. So no wonder the Times is getting huffy.)

“Behind the Curtain: Dems’ Blue Wall blues” [Axios]. “Top Democratic politicians and operatives tell us the vital states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are getting tougher for Vice President Harris and the party’s Senate candidates…. There’s growing worry among Democrats that Harris seems stuck, even sliding a bit, after a strong start to her young presidential campaign. Her media blitz, heavy spending and largely favorable coverage don’t seem to be moving the needle much, if at all, these Democrats say…. [David] Axelrod adds that Harris ‘had a great launch, right through the convention and the debate. But in these campaigns, every time you clear a bar, the bar gets raised. You have to lift your game and adjust your strategy.'” • So hoisting a beer is lifting your game?

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AK: “A Crazier Path to 270: Can Harris Wrest Alaska Away From Trump?” [Bloomberg]. “Alaskans tend to refer to lawmakers by their first names — Lisa, Mary or Sarah, as in Palin — reflecting intensely local politics. The state has voted for Republican presidential candidates in every election after 1964, but on the rest of the ballot, it’s one of the most bipartisan states. Its state legislature is ruled by coalitions of Republicans, Democrats and one independent, and its US congressional delegation is known for bucking party lines…. Now the state has also become an unlikely talking point for Democratic fundraisers and strategists as a small but tantalizing presidential election prize after a poll last month showed Harris trailing former President Donald Trump by just 5 percentage points. Polling there has been more sparse than in traditional swing states. But in an election year in which crazier things have already happened, it suddenly seemed not impossible for the Harris campaign to scoop up Alaska’s three electoral votes, offering an alternative path to the 270 electoral votes needed for the presidency.”

MI: “Crashing Arab American Support Spells Danger for Kamala Harris in Michigan” (interview) [James Zogby, Rolling Stone]. “Is the Arab voter shift to Trump reversible?That Trump vote — going to 42 percent — was an increase of 7 percent. But that 7 percent was soft. We asked the voters, if Harris were to demand a cease-fire, or if she were to say she would suspend arms aid unless Israel agreed to a cease-fire, her numbers went up from 42 to 62 percent. She regained a significant number of Trump votes that were the people basically voting for him as a protest against Democrats. The reaction I’m getting, when I go around the country and talk to people, is they want to punish Democrats. That’s not a smart political move, but that’s what people are feeling. And I don’t have an argument to make because they haven’t given us arguments to make. Who is “they,” I’m sorry? The campaign. I keep telling them, if you want people to vote for you, you gotta give them a reason. They don’t seem to care enough about the Arab American vote to do something to get it.” • This is like Clinton not visiting Wisconsin in 2016. And to think all Harris would have to do is lie! (Thinking wishfully, Biden could pull something out of his hat, but even if he could, he probably wouldn’t, given how he keeps counter-programming Kamala’s campaign events.)

NC: “We’re still finding dead neighbors in North Carolina. We need help” [Guardian]. “Many were. At least 227 people have died, and that toll is only going to get higher. The rivers are giving up the dead; landslides are yielding corpses. The destruction is grotesque and, in some cases, total, with bridges condemned, roadways eviscerated, and whole towns – Swannanoa, Hot Springs – obliterated. The personal terror I felt that morning is nothing compared to the rage I feel on behalf of those lives unnecessarily lost, those displaced, those struggling to access too few services, and at a governmental response that has seemingly prioritized the most privileged. I am one of those most privileged. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) showed up to my affluent, resource-secure neighborhood of Asheville on 1 October. However, I have been without power, water and wifi, and had only spotty cell service, since 27 September. There is a curfew in place, there are gas shortages and everyone is living with a profound feeling of disconnection from the rest of the world. Mutual aid has been a lifeline for me and many others.” And mutual aid is great. But: “Besides hearing that Joe Biden did an aerial overpass of our region (“We’ve got your back”) and the appearance of Fema trucks in my gentrified neighborhood on Tuesday, I have seen little evidence of the robust, coordinated, multi-agency response for which I and many others had hoped. Perhaps that’s in part because the roads are in various states of destruction and the cell network barely usable. But, having lived through the pandemic in 2020, I’m skeptical.” • Not the sentiment that Democrat would wish to hear, I am sure (recall from yesterday the lack of AP stories; FEMA barrelling in with relief is exactly the sort of story AP could and would cover, even if they only went as far as Asheville. But nothing (which raises its own questions).

NC: “Will Hurricane Helene Disrupt Elections in North Carolina?” [Democracy Docket]. From October 2. ” election officials across the state have come together to provide support. ‘I’ve been overwhelmed, but not surprised, by the offers of help from county boards of elections in parts of the state not affected by the storm to help their colleagues in western North Carolina,’ [Karen Brinson Bell, executive director of the North Carolina State Board of Elections] said. ‘And I know that support will continue.'”

NC: “14 of 19 polling places in Avery County unusable after Helene, elections director says” [WCNC]. “Sheila E. Ollis, the elections director in Avery County, says 14 out of 19 polling places in the county are unusable due to various impacts of Helene. Reasons for the closures include landslides, washed-out roads and being converted into shelters. Ollis told WCNC Charlotte’s Kayland Hagwood that county leaders are working to merge some polling locations so residents can vote. Any changes would require county board approval.” • Hence the tweaked voting rules—

NC: “Two states blasted by storms tweak voting rules” [Axios]. “North Carolina’s elections board this week unanimously approved emergency measures for the 13 western counties hit hardest by Helene. The changes include allowing county election boards to modify early voting days, hours and sites — and open a polling place in another county if their own polling site has been impacted. Boards also may allow any voter in the county who is unable to get to their Election Day precinct voting site to cast a ballot at the county’s elections office. North Carolina lawmakers on Wednesday also approved legislation to give $5 million to the State Board of Elections for post-storm administration costs — and expand the emergency rules to 25 counties. The changes could help many North Carolinians vote, but voting isn’t likely to be top of mind for those with profound losses. ‘If your basement is flooded, or if you are displaced and you have to go live with your grandma in another state … voting is going to drop down your list of priorities,’ [Kevin Morris, a senior research fellow and voting policy scholar with the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program] said.”

NV: “The Latino Battleground You Haven’t Heard About” [Politico]. “Nevada is far more competitive this year than in recent elections. While Democrats have stacked wins over the last two decades and Biden won the state by two percentage points in 2020, there was a hiccup during the 2022 midterms, with Democrat Steve Sisolak becoming the only incumbent governor in the nation to lose. Despite the union’s endorsement of Harris this summer, “We think if the election was today we would lose Nevada,” a Culinary official said.” • Univision will have a Harris Town Hall today (October 10). High stakes, much higher than Colbert and The View:

Tonight, I will join @UniNoticias to answer your most pressing questions. Tune in. pic.twitter.com/ZMcPylW6wc

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 10, 2024

Looking upwards, as usual. “El sol en el prado es cálido como el verano. El ciervo corre libre por el bosque.”

NV: “In Nevada, Latinos could pick the next president. They aren’t sold on either candidate” [NPR]. “Around 1 in 5 voters in the Silver State are Latino. That’s more political power than the group has in almost any of the other seven key states in the Electoral College count…. The Democrats have also launched their not-so-secret weapon in the state — an army of service workers from the Culinary Workers Union who have been helping deliver the party victories for several elections. Ted Pappageorge, secretary-treasurer for the Culinary Workers Union, admits Nevada, ‘to be honest, should be Trump territory.’ ‘At the end of the day, we’re competitive, and we outwork everybody,’ he said, adding, ‘there’s a pathway to win if we really can get workers talking to workers face to face at the doors.’ That’s exactly what they do. Thousands of cooks and servers and room cleaners will take a leave of absence to knock on doors, six days a week for Harris and the Democrats. The Culinary Union will help cover their missed wages as they undertake this different kind of work. The Trump campaign is also increasing its efforts to reach Latino voters. In Nevada, it’s hosting Spanish phone banking sessions, postcard writing nights and trainings for local volunteers.” •

NY: “Trump will hold a rally at Madison Square Garden in the race’s final stretch” [Associated Press]. “Trump has long said he believes that he can win New York, even though it is overwhelmingly Democratic and he has lost the state in the last two elections by more than 20 percentage points. But Trump also relishes staging events that will draw outsized media attention, like one held at the so-called World’s Most Famous Arena.” • Maybe the campaign has adopted the precautionary principle, and scheduled Trump into a safe place?

PA: “New Poll: Despite Blue-Collar Troubles, Harris Has Slight Lead Over Trump in Pennsylvania” [Jacobin]. “new Center for Working-Class Politics (CWCP) / YouGov poll conducted between September 24 and October 2 finds 46.8% of registered voters in Pennsylvania support Vice President Kamala Harris while 44.7% support former president Donald Trump for president in 2024. Another 5.5% remain undecided, and 3.0% support another candidate…. Among the lowest-income voters, those making less than $30k a year, Harris holds a commanding lead with 53.3% to Trump’s 38.3% support. Among lower-middle-income ($30k–$60k) and middle-income voters ($60k–$100k), Trump leads by a margin of 0.6% and 4.6%, respectively. Among upper-middle-income voters ($100k–$200k), Harris leads with 47.6% to Trump’s 45.6%. And among the highest-income voters (>$200k), Trump has a lead with 51.7% compared to only 48.3% for Harris. Overall, voters with a household income below the median favor Harris (47%) over Trump (44%), while voters earning above the median are split between the candidates at 47% support for each. Among manual workers, 55.9% prefer Trump and only 36.2% prefer Harris. Among service and clerical workers, Harris has the edge with 47.7% support to Trump’s 42%. Among professionals, Harris leads with 47.3% support to Trump’s 44.9% support. The candidates are in a dead heat among managers and business owners: Harris has 46.4%, Trump has 46.4%.”

PA: “The Latino Battleground You Haven’t Heard About” [Politico]. Using this one twice: “Latinos are poised to play a pivotal role across the battleground state landscape in November, not only in the Sun Belt states where Latino populations are highest but in Rust Belt stalwarts like Pennsylvania, where Latinos are the state’s fastest-growing demographic group — and a significant bloc in small- and mid-sized cities spanning from northeastern Pennsylvania to the Lehigh Valley.” • Where our supply chain warehouses are.

PA: “Obama Heads to Pennsylvania to Give Harris a Jolt of Democratic Energy” [New York Times]. “Unleashing Mr. Obama is a sign that Ms. Harris is moving her campaign into its highest gear with Election Day less than a month away and the presidential race exceedingly close. This week, her operation is turning its focus from fund-raising and defining her message to getting out the vote as quickly as possible. Mr. Obama’s rally on Thursday in Pittsburgh kick-starts that effort. And he is expected to continue rallying Democrats to the polls in several more battleground state events in the coming weeks. ‘You bring in someone like Barack Obama to inspire people, to encourage them to participate and to set the stakes and urge them to vote,’ said David Axelrod, a former top strategist for Mr. Obama. ‘There’s no one better.’ Encouraging early voting is a key campaign strategy. As more Democrats cast their ballots early, it becomes easier for the Harris campaign to find and turn out the voters who are harder to reach.” • Unleashing Obama? Or pushing a string?

WI: “Battle Over Ballot Drop Boxes Rages On in Wisconsin as Officials Put Them at Center of Election Integrity Debate” [ProPublica]. “But ever since the high drama of the 2020 presidential election, humble drop boxes have been more than a receptacle of absentee ballots; they’ve morphed into a vessel for emotion, suspicion and even conspiracy theories. In the battleground state of Wisconsin, especially, the mere presence of these sidewalk containers has inspired political activists and community leaders to plot against them, to call on people to watch them around the clock and even to hijack them. They’ve been the subject of two state Supreme Court decisions, as well as legal memos, local council deliberations, press conferences and much hand-wringing. Wausau Mayor Doug Diny was so leery of the box outside City Hall that he absconded with it on a Sunday in September, isolating it in his office. It had not yet been secured to the ground, he said, and so he wanted to keep it safe. The escapade was met with a backlash but also won the mayor some admirers online before he returned it. Wausau Mayor Doug Diny removed the ballot box outside City Hall and brought it to his office. Credit:Courtesy of Doug Diny. As early voting for the November election begins and Wisconsinites receive their absentee ballots, they have choices on how to return them. Mail them. Deliver them in person to the municipal clerk. Or, in some communities, deposit them in a drop box, typically located outside a municipal building, library, community center or fire station.” • Complexity is the enemy of quality, meaning “choice” is not automatically good. Why build a system that multiplies attack surfaces? A question that answers itself, once asked. Also, early voting delenda est.

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Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Not good at all:

So, about 1/3rd of the Nation’s positive detections are here in the Central Valley of California. We need to start implementing mandatory bulk milk tank testing statewide. pic.twitter.com/PinrdcgBoh

— Crystal Heath DVM (@drcrystalheath) October 10, 2024

You can bet that most of the workers won’t want to be tested, and haven’t been offered PPE by the owners. California is the top milk-producing state.

Maskstravaganza

Brute force and ignorance:

You are lucky…. My experience is they just pull the mask down with absolutely no warning at all!

I’ve taken to applying sticky tape as a deterrent!

— Dr Noor Bari (@NjbBari3) October 10, 2024

Probably a smile Nazi too….

Vaccines: Covid

“Is this the way COVID ends? Next-generation inhaled vaccines could be the key to ending pandemic” [Ottawa Citizen]. “‘I have studied pandemic viruses for a long time. I completely expected we would be in a place by now where COVID-19 was exhibiting seasonal trends (similar to influenza and other seasonal viruses that generally occur in the fall and winter). Clearly I was wrong,” [said Matthew Miller, who is co-director of the Canadian Pandemic Preparedness Hub, Canada Research Chair in Viral Pandemics and an associate professor in biochemistry at McMaster University in Hamilton]…. The team Miller is part of at McMaster is about to begin Phase 2 trials on a COVID-19 vaccine that is inhaled using a device similar to an asthma inhaler. It is the most promising mucosal COVID-19 vaccine under development in Canada and is expected to be tested in Canadian cities, including Ottawa, next year. The platform used for the COVID-19 vaccine can be used against other illnesses as well…. ‘I think we need mucosal vaccines generally. I think we are going to see a future with mucosal vaccines, and they have a whole variety of possible indications beyond COVID,’ Miller said. ‘Our propensity to stick (vaccines) into peoples’ arms is more out of habit than anything else.’ But Miller and others warn that expectations should be tempered for just how much, and how quickly, mucosal vaccines can make a difference. Still, many people have high hopes. Just last month, early, promising data from a mucosal vaccine being developed in China created a buzz. In the midst of early-stage testing of the vaccine, China lifted its highly restrictive Zero COVID policy, resulting in a massive wave. Still, more than 86 per cent of people who had two doses of the experimental vaccine remained uninfected. The vaccine is still undergoing testing. ‘This is what I’ve been waiting for. It could finally give us a real ending to the pandemic,’ Toronto emergency physician Dr. Kashif Pirzada wrote on the social media platform X in response to the results of a study on the Chinese vaccine. ‘No more waves of illness, no more rushing for tests and antivirals if you’re elderly or vulnerable. Hope this comes out soon!’ Pirzada is a board member of the national non-profit Canadian Covid Society, which was founded, in part, to fill information gaps after public health pulled back on public awareness campaigns and preventative measures.” • Next year? There seems to be little urgency here. Perhaps we need a program to speed things up. Say… to warp speed?

Social Norming

“Witness Statement of Dr Catherine Finnis on behalf of Clinically Vulnerable Families” (PDF) [In the Public Inquiry into the Covid-19 Pandemic]. “”As a household we are now in our 4th year of shielding, it’s been the only option for us. The main problems we’ve faced have been caused by the attitudes and behaviours of other people toward us. We’ve been bullied, harassed and gas lit relentlessly by the school, council and my employer. They have stopped me sleeping at night, made me live in constant fear due to their threats and made me physically ill through the stress and worry they’ve caused me. Due to lack of safety mitigations in hospitals, we are not even given the privilege of being able to attend our urgent medical appointments safely anymore. Seeking medical attention has become a truly terrifying ordeal, that I would liken to a game of Russian Roulette with our lives. The UK no longer feels like my home, it is not a safe, tolerant or kind place for a person with disabilities to try and five.” May 2023 Amanda, aged 43.”

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC October 5	Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):
Variants [3] CDC September 28	Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 28
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data October 8:	National [6] CDC September 14:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens October 7:	Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 5:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC September 16:	Variants[10] CDC September 16:
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28:	Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Still some hot spots, but I can’t draw circles around entire regions this week. Good news!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.

[10] (Travelers: Variants).

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose by 33,000, reaching a total of 258,000 for the week ending October 5th, surpassing market expectations of 230,000. This marks the highest level in 14 months, largely driven by substantial increases in Michigan and states affected by Hurricane Helene. In Michigan alone, claims surged by 10,667 over the past two weeks, primarily due to layoffs in the manufacturing and management sectors. North Carolina and Florida also saw notable increases.” • Michigan, eh?

Inflation: “United States Consumer Price Index (CPI)” [Trading Economics]. “Consumer Price Index CPI in the United States increased to 315.30 points in September from 314.80 points in August of 2024.”

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Retail: “JBS Hipwashes CAFO Meat” [Grocery Nerd]. “Global meat conglomerate JBS is opening hip new meat and seafood retail outlets in a number of metro areas around the U.S. Called Wild Fork, the shops will sell frozen meat, including beef, pork, lamb and chicken, as well as seafood, produce and prepared meals…. JBS has also been known for environmental and human rights abuses, including sourcing beef from cleared rainforests and from farmers linked to killing indigenous people, as well as bribing public officials, underpaying ranchers and family farmers in the U.S. and exploiting meat packing workers with low pay and dangerous working conditions. The company slaughters thirteen million chickens, 128,000 pigs, and 77,000 beef cows every day. They are even getting sued by New York for their misleading environmental claims. If there was a textbook definition of industrial meat production and its catastrophic impacts on climate and society, it would be JBS. JBS, the ultimate meatfuckers. Not hip… But through the magic of pandering to millennials and Gen Z, JBS will be marketing Wild Fork as a fresh-focused, trend forward, brick and mortar with E-commerce and in-store pickup. They plan to build over 200 stores…. JBS is also leveraging the bizarre culture-war fetish of increased meat consumption among young men, coupled with consumer skepticism of processed foods.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Considers ‘Next Steps’ After Pulling Contract Offer for Striking Workers” [Flying]. “In a statement posted Tuesday by IAM District 751 in Seattle, Washington, IAM said that Boeing refused to propose any wage increases, vacation/sick leave accrual progression, ratification bonus, 401(k) match/SCRC contribution or reinstate workers’ benefit pension. ‘By refusing to bargain the offer sent to the media, the company made it harder to reach an agreement,’ the IAM statement continued. ‘Your negotiating committee attempted to address multiple priorities that could have led to an offer we could bring to a vote, but the company wasn’t willing to move in our direction. Through the mediator, Boeing has now withdrawn its September 23 offer.’ The IAM statement said that a survey of the union’s members showed the contract offer wasn’t good enough. It said that the union’s negotiating committee remains ready to continue talks.”

Manufacturing: “Push to end Machinists strike stalls as storm clouds gather over Boeing” [Seattle Times]. “Stephanie Pope, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, blamed the union’s negotiating committee for the standstill…. In this round of negotiations, Pope told employees Tuesday, Boeing had made ‘new and improved proposals,’ including increases in take-home pay and retirement. Holden, the Machinists union president, said that claim is misleading and overstates what Boeing brought to the table. The increase in take-home pay revolved around a guaranteed 2% annual bonus, Holden said. But Machinists have received a larger bonus for 11 of the last 12 years, meaning that stipulation would not guarantee higher take-home pay, Holden continued. He said the company had increased the amount of money workers with a vested pension benefit could earn for each year of service. But, Holden continued, the company did not address other retirement benefits. Now there’s no offer at all at the table. ‘Which was a foolish mistake,’ Holden said. ;This is our job to get an agreement. It’s our job to continue negotiating, to continue trying to work through our individual stances and to get traction on something that could lead to a negotiated offer that we could vote.'”

Manufacturing: “A United Boeing 787 with 176 people on board had to divert after the pilot’s screens went blank over remote northern Canada” [Business Insider]. “According to a Transportation Safety Board of Canada report, while over Hudson Bay, the ‘captain’s primary flight display and navigation display failed to a blank display.’ Both flight management computers also entered “a degraded mode with limited capabilities.’ The [Transportation Safety Board of Canadas’s] report added that this meant the plane was left without lateral navigation or LNAV — an autopilot mode that involves following a programmed flight path.” • Oopsie.

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 72 Greed (previous close: 72 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 71 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 10 at 1:55:29 PM ET.

Gallery

Big dots:

Paul Signac, Two Cypresses pic.twitter.com/xDWxi0U3bc

— Impressions (@impression_ists) October 3, 2024

Oddly, the trees have haloes, as in one of Lightroom’s photo masks. What’s up with that?

Zeitgeist Watch

“The illusion of information adequacy” [PLOS One]. From the Abstract: “How individuals navigate perspectives and attitudes that diverge from their own affects an array of interpersonal outcomes from the health of marriages to the unfolding of international conflicts. The finesse with which people negotiate these differing perceptions depends critically upon their tacit assumptions—e.g., in the bias of naïve realism people assume that their subjective construal of a situation represents objective truth. The present study adds an important assumption to this list of biases: the illusion of information adequacy. Specifically, because individuals rarely pause to consider what information they may be missing, they assume that the cross-section of relevant information to which they are privy is sufficient to adequately understand the situation. Participants in our preregistered study (N = 1261) responded to a hypothetical scenario in which control participants received full information and treatment participants received approximately half of that same information. We found that treatment participants assumed that they possessed comparably adequate information and presumed that they were just as competent to make thoughtful decisions based on that information. Participants’ decisions were heavily influenced by which cross-section of information they received. Finally, participants believed that most other people would make a similar decision to the one they made.” • Suggesting that the goal of controlling mis- and disinformation is more likely to be controlling information as such.

“Meteorologists Get Death Threats as Hurricane Milton Conspiracy Theories Thrive” [Rolling Stones]. As Hurricane Milton approaches Florida, meteorologists are staying awake for days at a time trying to get vital, life-saving information out to the folks who will be affected. That’s their job. But this year, several of them tell Rolling Stone, they’re increasingly having to take time out to quell the nonstop flow of misinformation during a particularly traumatic hurricane season. And some of them are doing it while being personally threatened…. ‘It affects our mental health,’ he adds, saying he’s spoken to the Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore and other meteorologists about it a lot this week. After [Alabama meteorologist James Spann] posted a FEMA website about rumor control, he got multiple private messages telling him to retire or personally threatening him. ‘You’re working with two to three hours of sleep for multiple weeks under a high stress situation and then you deal with these threats that come in, it’ll beat you down.'” • “Make it personal. Do as much damage as you can. Get your message across. That way, you stand a better chance of being taken seriously next time.” —Quellcrist Falconer, in Richard Morgan, Altered Carbon. As opposed to making it stochastic…

The 420

“On 17th century ‘cocaine'” [Res Obscura]. Coca, actually. “Back to the mummified brains in 17th century Milan. What was actually found in them, as the journal article makes clear, were chemical markers that point decisively to the use of the plant form of the drug (leaves of the Erythroxylaceae family of plants, i.e. coca) and not cocaine salts. So what were coca leaves doing in 17th century Milan? Milan was actually part of the Spanish empire throughout the 17th century, as you can (just barely) see on this incredibly complicated and detailed map of Spanish/Hapsburg imperial claims over time:” And: “What’s most interesting about the presence of coca in the brains of ordinary Milanese hospital patients is that it suggests something more than just elite experimentation — something that is a step toward the “democratized” modern drug culture that David Courtwright wrote about. It hints at a more widespread knowledge and use of the plant than we previously suspected. This, in turn, raises fascinating questions about early modern trade networks, medical practices, and cultural exchange. Were these individuals outliers, or representative of a broader pattern of coca use in 17th century Europe — one which historians had never before noticed because, hitherto, we weren’t drug testing mummified brains found in hospital crypts?”

Class Warfare

“Diddy’s celebrity accomplices have quietly paid-off victims to avoid being named publicly, lawyer claims” [Daily Mail]. Lawyer Tony Buzbee: “‘A lot of people saw this activity going on, a lot of people allowed it to go on, said nothing, didn’t intervene… all of these individuals and entities have exposure.’ Buzbee said he has sent out demand letters to other celebrities and high-profile people in an effort to give them an opportunity to quietly settle. ‘In every single case, especially cases like this… because it’s in the best interests of the victim, we attempt to resolve these matters without the filing of a public lawsuit and we’ve done that already with a handful of individuals, many of which you’re heard of before.’ Buzbee has previously discussed the sheer volume of calls he and his team have received with complaints against Diddy. Of the 120 people he is now representing, 25 claim they were minors at the time they were allegedly abused.” • Only 120?

News of the Wired

“Portugal plans to become low-tax haven for young people” [Financial Times]. “The country’s centre-right government wants to reduce the income tax burden on young people for 10 years — including a first year in which no tax is due — under a plan that has few precedents in fiscal policy elsewhere. The initiative underlines the urgency of reversing a debilitating outflow of young people, who are leaving one of the poorest economies in western Europe in search of better paid jobs abroad.” • I keep saying: Have your passports ready. And nothing wrong with a little arbitrage!

“Rich Americans prefer Harris over Trump—but want a second passport no matter who wins” [MSN]. • Mr. Lee’s Greater Hong Kong, where are you?!

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From JU:

JU writes: “Walker Pass wildflower show.”

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