By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Blue-and-white Mockingbird, Antigua Guatemala–Cerro de la Cruz, Sacatepéquez, Guatemala.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Democrat bedwetting
- Kamala messaging disasters: Walz goes hunting, manly men, Obama and black men
- Walz oppo bubbles up, not yet popped.
- Labor Secretary Su flies to Seattle, Boeing’s doom loop.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Democrat bedwetting
- Kamala messaging disasters: Walz goes hunting, manly men, Obama and black men
- Labor Secretary Su flies to Seattle, Boeing’s doom loop.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less than thirty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error and go with the narrative, another good week for Trump, especially in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, in the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * “‘This Is Going To Be Too Close for Comfort’ David Plouffe on the state of play for his boss, Kamala Harris, and what he thinks of the ‘bed-wetters.'” (interview) [David Plouffe, New York Magazine]. Plouffe: “There are independents. Most independents behave in most elections like Democrats or Republicans, but there are some in the middle that definitely fluctuate election to election. They tend to be overrepresented in the true swing voter universe but there are a bunch of these independents who generally consider themselves Republicans who are repelled by Trump. And so you ask: How do we go from basically 48 to 50? Well, it’s going to be some of those voters. It’s going to be making sure we do a very good job of turnout, it’s going to be very important that we maximize our vote share among Democrats, and we think we’re headed to an exceedingly high number there. I will say: Turnout is very important to us. We’re spending a lot of time on it, a lot of money on it, a lot of energy on it. But I think Trump has more fragility because he really is reliant — and this is unusual, because usually this describes Democrats — on first-time voters or infrequent voters. And he’s got a lot riding on that. It doesn’t seem to be that he has built the kind of operation in the battleground states that would be consistent with executing on that…. What’s different this time than ’16 or even ’20 is he really is reliant on a lot of people who have never voted before, have never voted for a Republican before, or have maybe voted in one of the last four elections. I’m not sure they’ve built the organization for that.” • Interesting that Plouffe accepts Brownstein’s theory of the case case that irregular voters are key. Even more interestingly, Plouffe thinks that the Trump campaign is “fragile” because its trying to expand the electorate in a way they are not.
“Harris losing ground with young Latino men, exclusive USA-TODAY polls find” [MSN]. “Vice President Kamala Harris is losing support among young Latino men, even as she continues to hold a lead over Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump among Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada – two key states that will help determine the 2024 election, according to two exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University polls… David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University Political Research Center, said while it’s good news for Harris that she’s leading with Latino voters in both states, the current margin likely won’t be enough for her to claim victories there. ‘It’s only young people and males, but that offset … is the reason why Harris’ numbers are not where they should be (for her to win),’ Paleologos said. Harris’ polling in both states among Latino voters is slightly trailing where Biden was in 2020.”
* * * Kamala (D): “Walz goes pheasant hunting with his own Beretta as campaign makes appeal to gun owners” [CBS]. “Sleepy Eye, Minnesota — Carrying a Beretta shotgun, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz trekked through tall straw-like grass for three hours on Saturday for opening day of the state’s pheasant hunting season, but didn’t get one shot off despite his efforts. ‘There’s good days and there’s great days pheasant hunting,’ Walz said when the day wrapped up.”
Bad staffwork on multiple levels here. Leave everything else aside, including the crass stereotyping. Did they have no subject matter expert to consult to make sure Walz’s gun was the right sort of gun? And you can say Walz should have known, but it’s still the staff’s job to prevent gaffes. Now the campaign is worse off than before; both pandering and ineffective.
Kamala (D): “Dude…No! Pro-Kamala Harris ad targeting ‘real men’ is mocked as the ‘cringiest ever created’: ‘Have they ever met a male human?'” [Daily Mail]. “The video features various men declaring their interest in ‘manly clichés’ like bears, drinking bourbon, eating steaks, fixing cars, and lifting weights… The ad features men with horses, motorcycles, in a mechanics shop, sitting on a truck, lifting weights, or leaning against a fence… It was shared on the VoteSaveAmerica social media pages, organized by the Crooked.com group that runs Pod Save America.” • For your delectation, here’s the ad:
(“If you have to say it….”) Reminds me of this famous video from back in the day (so denatured Trump plays it at rallies):
Kamala’s supporters have just swapped in different, more up-to-date male stereotypes (which, I suppose, is what identity politcs is all about).
* * * Here is the current claim, from @DocNetyoutube:
Last night, I was given a statement from the victim of Tim Walz to release this morning. I must tell you; the victim has never told me of his intent to bring Tim Walz to court. I assume this means trying to seek legal recourse, if possible, in a criminal court.
I also have seen… pic.twitter.com/KbGDOiiKBF
— Black Insurrectionist–I FOLLOW BACK TRUE PATRIOTS (@DocNetyoutube) October 14, 2024
>
Big if true. Earlier in this emergent thread, the accuser claimed to have been by Walz to an Indigo Girls concert, as a minor, and abused. (Interestingly, the person who would seem to have been @DocNetyoutube’s victim has already announced himself: “Tim and Gwen Walz were my teachers in high school. That story in the New York Times about them taking a gay student to an Indigo Girls concert—that student was me!”) In the above Tweet, the accuser expands his original claims to include a country concert, and a China trip, on which he claims to have gone. (Here is a description of a China trip; another.) Finally, the political dynamite (1): “When Tim Walz received his DUI [sic]. It was after an evening with me” (“his DUI. It was” is in the original); and (2) a Chinese symbol tatooed on Walz’s upper thigh, and “a small scar on his left arm” (reminds me of Paula Jones on Bill Clinton’s misshapen member). The accuser may come forward (“later”):
He has agreed to. I will announce later..
— Black Insurrectionist–I FOLLOW BACK TRUE PATRIOTS (@DocNetyoutube) October 14, 2024
What I would expect reporters, if any still remain, to do: (1) Find the accuser; if indeed he went on the China trip, it shouldn’t be that hard; (2) interview the other China trip participants; what did they witness, if anything; (3) straighten out the concerts. Were there one or two Indigo Girls concerts; (4) straighten out the timeline. We have the concerts, the China trips, the DUI, Walz’s resignation from the Nebraska school system, and the Walzes moving to a new school system in Minnesota. I don’t have time to put that sequence together and match it up to the accusations.
* * * Meanwhile, @DocNetyoutube has form:
“EXCLUSIVE: X User ‘Black Insurrectionist’ Agrees to Put Gateway Pundit in Contact with Alleged ABC Whistleblower’s Attorney After Releasing ‘Affidavit’ on Debate Rigging Scandal” [Gateway Pundit]. But: “The Gateway Pundit cannot yet independently verify these allegations, but our legal team has reached out to Black Insurrectionist, who agreed to facilitate contact with the whistleblower’s attorney. In exchange for keeping the whistleblower’s identity confidential, an interview could be arranged to further investigate the claims.” • To my knowledge, there was no interview.
“ABC Finally Addresses MAGA ‘Affidavit’ Claiming It Helped Harris Win Debate” [Daily Beast]. “The “Black Insurrectionist” account, having grown by nearly 30,000 followers, eventually shared the six-page ‘affidavit’ on Sunday. The document is dated Sept. 9, the day before the debate. The person—whose name, address, and signature are blacked out, other than they live in ‘Manhattan New York’ [sic]—alleges they have been with ‘ABC News’ for over 10 years, but they have somehow observed ‘significant transformations in the nature of news reporting at the organization’ since it was acquired by Disney in 1996.” And: “The document also claims to have been verified by a notary public, though the document does not provide a notary seal.” But it gets better: “An article on a little-known blog indicated the alleged whistleblower had been killed in a car crash before they could unveil the affidavit. That proposition was pushed by Greene on X, who claimed that the whistleblower had died ‘according to news reports.’ She then retracted the claim and demanded a ‘serious investigation’ into the document. Even the Gateway Pundit, a far-right website that delves into misinformation and false stories, warned its readers: ‘It’s clear to us that this is a complete hoax.’ (The “Black Insurrectionist” account later claimed they put the website in touch with the whistleblower’s attorney.)” • A car crash. How convenient. And if in fact the whistleblower had an attorney, nothing came of it. Apparently, the whole thing was too much even for Gateway Pundit, which isn’t squeamish.
* * * Finally, the Black Insurrectionist tweet storm that started it all was spun out in multiple, impropertly threaded, tweets, and it too is a little sketchy. @AgentSelf99B examines the accuser’s putatively original emails, as presented in the form of screen dumps by Black Insurrectionist’s account:
There’s more, but that’s all for now.
* * * Again, big if true. Maybe Black Insurrectionist got lucky, and the accuser will actually come forward to be vetted. I can well believe that the Kamala operation butchered this. However, “that’s what they would do” doesn’t mean that’s what they did (at least for an accusation like this).
* * * Kamala (D): “Barack Obama’s Tiresome Condescension Toward Black Men” [New York Magazine]. “One need not equivocate to recognize that there are substantive reasons for Black voters to reject Democrats like Obama and Harris on the same basis as they do Republicans. The framework Obama uses leaves little room for misgivings about the fact that Harris is going to great lengths to collapse the distance between herself and the GOP. When she learned that former vice-president Dick Cheney, a chief architect of the United States’ atrocities during the War on Terror, was planning to vote for her, Harris unironically thanked him for ‘what he has done to serve our country.’ She has become more hawkish on immigration in response to Trump’s naked xenophobia, and she has recommitted to unconditionally sending arms to Israel amid its slaughter of Gazan and Lebanese civilians — a dogmatic position held by Democratic and Republican administrations alike, including Biden’s and Trump’s. During a recent appearance on ABC’s The View, Harris seemed to flub an easy opportunity to distance herself from the unpopular incumbent when she struggled to explain how she would govern differently. But she recovered later that day by reiterating an earlier promise that, unlike Biden, she would appoint a Republican to her Cabinet.” • Commentary:
I’ve met pretty much all the most popular Dems or at least been in spaces with them when we unionized Amazon. One person who I’ve never heard from till this date not even to congratulate workers fighting back is Barrack Obama. He can’t preach that Black man brother talk to me.
— Christian Smalls (@Shut_downAmazon) October 13, 2024
* * * “Why historian who accurately predicts elections says October surprise is a ‘myth'” [USA Today]. Allan Lichtman, the historian who correctly predicted nine of the ten most recent presidential elections, said in an interview that any October surprise that could upend the 2024 presidential race is a ‘myth.’ Lichtman: “[I]t’s governing, not campaigning that counts. …[T]his whole idea of an October surprise is a huge myth,’ he said. ‘I’ve always made my predictions before then, and never change them.'”
* * * MI: “Harris’ struggles with Michigan’s working-class voters provides opening for Trump, GOP” [FOX]. “According to a report in The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, prominent Michigan Democrats, including Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, have made appeals to the Harris campaign to focus on the state more as the election draws to a close. They have also warned Harris to sharpen her economic messaging, the report notes, with fears spreading that Trump has done well to court the state’s working class voters. Harris’ struggles have also extended to union members, a group that has long been a stronghold for Democrats in the state. However, an internal poll conducted by Teamsters, one of the country’s largest and most influential unions, found that members in Michigan preferred Trump (61.7%) over Harris (35.2%), while national union leaders declined to make an endorsement in this year’s presidential race, despite supporting President Biden’s campaign in 2020. Harris also failed to gain the support of the International Association of Fire Fighters, which also supported Biden in 2020, though she did gain the support of both United Auto Workers and the Service Employees International Union.” • I can’t imagine Whitmer’s recent “weird” video helped.
Democrats en Déshabillé
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC October 5 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC October 12 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC October 5 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| New York[5] New York State, data October 10: | National [6] CDC September 21: |
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| Positivity | |
| ★ National[7] Walgreens October 7: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 5: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity[9] CDC September 16: | Variants[10] CDC September 16: |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Still some hot spots, but I can’t draw circles around entire regions this week. Good news!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “everything in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.
[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.
[10] (Travelers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly jumped to 11.5 in September 2024, the highest since April 2022, compared to -4.7 in August and forecasts of -3.9.”
Manfacturing: “Acting US Labor Secretary intervenes to try to end Boeing standoff with union” [Reuters]. “U.S. Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su flew to Seattle to intervene in the labor dispute between Boeing and about 33,000 striking workers that threatens the debt-laden company’s finances.” And: “The latest crisis comes as Boeing’s markets are growing and many of its rivals are scooping up scarce labour to relieve pressure on aerospace supply chains. ‘The trick will be not losing the 10% of people you want to keep, which is even more important than usual in the post pandemic skill shortage environment,’ said Agency Partners analyst Nick Cunningham.” • The pandemic environment isn’t “post,” but nevertheless.
Manufacturing: “Boeing shares are not a buy yet” [The Street]. “The stock will almost certainly see volatile trading this week. What you want to see is a bottom that holds. To get there probably requires these elements: Peace between labor and the company… Guarantee of work in the Puget Sound region…. Shoring up Boeing’s capital position…. Peace with the regulators…. Peace with all the people suing Boeing over the 2018 and 2019 crashes.” • Quite a lot of Ortberg’s plate.
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s endless doom loop gives no respite to new CEO Ortberg” [Fortune]. “[W]ith so-called touch labor accounting for less than 5% for the total cost of a commercial aircraft program, some observers wonder why Boeing isn’t moving with more urgency to end the work stoppage that’s adding to its financial distress. ‘It’s not a needle mover in terms of Boeing profitability,’ said Ken Herbert, analyst with RBC Capital Markets. ‘What are we waiting for here? Every day that goes by, it’s more disruptive and more of a cash drain.'” • Good question!
Manufacturing: “Emirates to Have Serious Talks with Boeing over New 777X Delays” [Aviation A2Z]. “Emirates President Tim Clark expressed skepticism about Boeing’s ability to forecast delivery dates accurately. He highlighted the Type Inspection Authorisation halt on the 777X and the prolonged union strikes as major obstacles. The 777X is crucial for Emirates’ future wide-body fleet strategy, especially since Airbus has ceased A380 production. Clark revealed that Emirates has made significant and costly amendments to its fleet programs due to Boeing’s ‘multiple contractual shortfalls.’ … Aircraft delays have become an industry-wide concern, affecting both Boeing and Airbus. Airlines resort to keeping older aircraft operational longer, often retrofitting them at significant cost.”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 77 Extreme Greed (previous close: 74 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 69 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 14 at 1:16:35 PM ET. • FIrst transition to Extreme Greed for awhile!
Photo Book
“A window covered with raindrops interests me more than a photograph of a famous person.” –Saul Leiter
Couple walk in snow, ca 1955 © Saul Leiter pic.twitter.com/NwOAoQ1yvE
— Edward Elderman (@edwereddie) October 12, 2024
I believe we have seen a representation of Kowloon Walled City before, but from a different source:
Kowloon Walled City, likely the densest place ever built (est. 1.9 million people per square km)
A team of Japanese researchers spent time until the night before it was demolished measuring and drawing the building, creating this incredible section pic.twitter.com/ToeOaarIgH
— Philip Oldfield (@SustainableTall) October 13, 2024
Gallery
“An Astronomer Has Identified the Village Road in This Van Gogh Painting” [Artnet]. “Being able to pinpoint a precise location of an area depicted in an artwork usually isn’t an exact science. However, Donald Olson, an astrophysicist and forensic astronomer at the State University System Regent, has used his scientific training to determine where Vincent van Gogh’s iconic 1884 work, Lane of Poplars at Sunset (now held by the Kröller-Müller Museum in the Netherlands), was in fact painted.” • The logic is too complex to excerpt, but here’s the painting:
Permaculture
Correct, in my view:
“All we are really doing is annihilating processes we don’t understand.” ~Lyle Lewis #thicktrunktuesday https://t.co/HDsSaHY4eJ
— Lyle Lewis (@Race2Extinct) October 8, 2024
Carbon capture? Feh!
“the quiet art of attention” [stormrider]. “The mind, like a garden, requires tending. It needs patience, a steady hand, and, above all, consistency. There will be days when it seems unruly, when old habits return, and when focus feels elusive. But these days, too, are part of the process. Each small effort, each moment of renewed attention, builds upon the last. Over time, these moments accumulate, and what was once difficult becomes second nature. And so, the journey to mastery of the mind begins not with grand gestures but with the simplest of practices: the practice of paying attention. Attention to the present, attention to what truly matters, and attention to the quiet spaces in between. In this way, step by step, thought by thought, we move closer to that elusive state of clarity, of peace, and of freedom.”
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125 comments
Comments are closed.
So, the Democrats are losing ground with young people in general, and especially young Latino men. Anyone on this site could have told you that weeks ago. Just yesterday or the day before, IM Doc predicted this would happen, based purely on his own experience with his own patients and staff.
Funny how reality is slow to catch up with mainstream media and Democrats.
Oh, and these numbers that Plouffe bases his comments on: they have to be based on polling that’s pre-Dorito. Wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers across Latinos of all ages go into freefall in the next week or so.
Given the add made of the Walz hunting fiasco, and now reading Harris will do an interview with Fox News and Brett Baier, it reeks of desperation. Internal polls (which I assume are these text messages I am getting swamped with) must show they are behind.
The good news is there is only 22 days left of BS we are being fed.
The latest thing the PMC are talking about; After the reported 3rd attempt to get rid of Trump, which appears to be nothing, the theory is they are trying to get rid of Trump (the RNC) so they can install their chosen guy (Vance) to carry out Project 2025, complete with militias and martial law for the rest of us.
Be afraid, very afraid.
My nightmare about what MAGA looks like behind the scenes right now:
The day after the election, Trump as an individual no longer matters to the Circle of Darkness that has gathered around him. Electing him is nowhere close to the worst possible outcome.
Trump has become exactly what he appears to be: a senile, shambolic meat puppet, coasting on his reputation as the only candidate that isn’t more of the same. He’s no longer in charge of MAGA. They have a new, younger meat puppet on hand (so to speak) to lock it in: JD Vance.
Win or lose, Trump gets pushed aside like a rotting corpse, reduced to roadkill within a year because he’s no longer useful. Horrible and out of touch as the PMC zombie Democratic Party is, we discover what the hands inside the MAGA meat puppets really want, and it’s far more horrifying.
January 6th was the 1923 Beer Hall putch. This election is a bizarre mashup of 1932 and 1936. The Reichstag fire and Kristalnacht are lurking in background. We shall see.
January 6th was nothing like the failed coup attempt of 1923 (aka the Beer Hall Putch).
This looks like the insane ramblings seen from Blue MAGA. It is not based in reality.
Yes, we have rough times ahead, regardless of who wins. But I’d be more concerned about WWIII, not about some fevered dream of US based insurrection.
I had a crazy thought about a militia group in NC taking advantage of the flooding situation. Maybe they blow up a few bridges and declare themselves an autonomous breakaway republic. Given the terrain and the situation with water, power, and food, if they’re well-prepped they could holdout for a long time.
Fun stuff to war game out, but I agree with the poster urdsama that WWIII is more likely, triggered by the neocons.
And the neowils ( neoWilsonians). Let’s don’t forget about the neoWilsonians.
“Are Too Pee” and all that.
If Brooke Rollins becomes Mr Trumps Chief of Staff there will be no space for Mr Vance to operate, she obviously sees herself in the Rockefeller role already and would freeze out any of his attempts at controlling policy.
Perhaps he would run interference with the Houses while Mr Trump plays golf.
You’re so right: if Trump is elected we’re certain to see genocide in Gaza, attacks on Lebanon and Iran, and proxy war with Russia.
Dude, time to stop getting high on your own supply. You and your #McResistance buds have been trying to convince people for ten years that Trump is Hitler; your sudden pivot that he’s now irrelevant looks very, very weak.
Replying to myself. I should have used a sarcasm tag.
I hear and read this stuff all the time, along with how Trump is the biggest phony no-nothing in the history of the world – yet the same people who say that – say he’s going to take over America and force us to live in a fascist state controlled by him and his Red Hat army. He will become the permanent dictator. The end of democracy as we know it.
WTF? Really?
The biggest buffoon in the history of the world is going to pull that off? GTFOOH.
Not an endorsement, just logic.
Thinking two opposite things to be absolutely true is a highly advanced skill of the Serious People. For instance, that Russia is a decrepit regime led by a dying dictator with drunken soldiers that are scavenging washing machine parts for weapons and using shovels to bash their enemies for lack of ammunition. And at the same time, that Russia will steamroll across Europe crushing all democracies and building a new empire exceeding that of the Tsars unless we spend billions to turn them back in the Donbass. All the intelligentsia from FAQ on down believe both those propositions, so why not Trump the do-nothing, presenile blowhard becoming all-powerful dictator of the Christofascist New America?
“Doublethink means holding two contradictory beliefs in your mind at the same time, and accepting both of them”
Yeah, that video is cringeworthy. And let’s not forget about Glocks, because Harris’ telling of that was every bit as phony; the more they try to convince people of these things, the more they give themselves away, and they just can’t help it.
Perhaps in hindsight we will see this as the week the wheels finally came off the bus.
I suspect she has a glock, likely on the advice of law enforcement because she was a DA. My gut is the staff heard and concluded the Gun Nuts will embrace her, so they cooked up a deranged story for her to volunteer to an interviewer.
Glocks are cool and look badass.
Plus they’re made in Germany and therefore probably work.
I made it into ~30 seconds of the video ad beneath that Walz hunting guide summary from X…the men in a video ad supporting Harris….feels like a support group ad from Fight Club…sadly and high level cringe
“Go ahead Cornelius, you can cry. Resting between Bob’s….I finally let go…babies don’t sleep this good…”
“I became addicted.”
Yes. It’s one of those films that has stuck in my subconscious lo these many years later. And I must submit the satire was partly lost on me, and better understanding came after several times of watching the movie and reading the novel. Just a smartly written work.
And to add in, that David Fincher as a movie director is one of my favorites.
I couldn’t figure out what happened, that I’m not getting these horrid text messages, so I checked my Google Voice spam folder, and there they are! I’m so so thankful that this stuff is getting filtered! My email filter is successfully blocking all campaign emails as well, which is amazing. This is the quietest election I’ve had in a decade!
> Harris will do an interview with Fox News and Brett Baier,
There’s also rumors that Kamala will do an interview with Joe Rogan. That won’t help her.
Politics (said Rex Stout’s Archie Goodwin) is “the roughest game there is.” At least one reason for that is that an elected, especially an elected who wants a long career, needs to build relationships, however parasocial they may be (like, a lot) with some significant percentage of the electorate over time (I think Weber would call this “charisma.” Rather like fandom). “Meeting the public” is hard work; voters aren’t necessarily nice, or grateful. At the national level both Clintons, Obama, Bush, even lesser beings like DeSantis or Whitmer are able to do this. I would use the word “base” for this “percentage of the electorate” but that’s not quite right. Perhaps a “following.” We follow their story. “We know who they are.”
Kamala has never had a following. She didn’t use the Vice Presidency to create one (and I would argue is personally incapable of it, as a coreless being who doesn’t know who she is).
As a result, Kamala goes through the motions that we would expect from a national politician, but her moves never “hit” or “land,” although they are said to within the closed circle of the media that supports her. And the panicked blunders of her own staff aren’t helping.
If Kamala gets elected, it will be as an empty vessel, a negation (“not Trump”). I think it is in the interest of those around her to keep her weak, so that is what she will be (and will have to be even more of an imperial lunatic than Biden is, to appear “strong”).
…and especially young Latino men.
It always cracks me up that for being the “educated” and diverse party, the professional Dem. pundit class always paint Latinos with the broadest of broad brushstroke, like they’re an out-of-touch Beltway Boomer…..oh wait, most of them are or are intellectually-adjacent.
All the ones I know live in a very tight, protected, and small bubble. Nothing bad gets in, only good stuff. If by chance something bad does get in, they are quick to dismiss it, or blame it on someone else. Usually Trump, the GOP, or both. Never, ever, them.
It’s a kevlar bubble…seemingly indestructible
How does one get through to those who’ve been paid to not empathize with those who have not? h/t upton sinclair
It’s like she hired AB’s marketing team after they tried to come back from their influencer troubles.
Ha. I used that as a reference while trying to describe to a friend how bad this was.
Influencer Troubles sounds like a modern-day John Waters movie. Anyhow, the reference.
“All we are really doing is annihilating processes we don’t understand.” ~Lyle Lewis
“We have lived by the assumption that what was good for us would be good for the world. … We have been wrong. We must change our lives, so that it will be possible to live by the contrary assumption that what is good for the world will be good for us. . . We must recover the sense of the majesty of the creation and the ability to be worshipful in its presence. For it is only on the condition of humility and reverence before the world that our species will be able to remain in it.”
― Wendell Berry, The Long-Legged House
I hope things are going better for you, HMP!
Thanks, petal. I’m back home, so that’s already better. This recovery will be long, though.
[thumbs up]
So glad you are home, HMP. Wishing you all the best.
Wishing you a good recovery and happy, peaceful days. Echoing from a few days back – your comments are thoughtful, kind and well reasoned. Thank you for them.
Good to see that you dodged yet another bullet, HMP. Haven’t seen so many bullet dodges since “The Matrix”-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODmhPsgqGgQ
Good news comes so seldom these days. Thank you for sharing some with us and best of luck in your recovery.
Good to hear you’re home Sending vibes//good thoughts for a speedier and easier recovery than expected!
Hi Henry
Wishing you the bestest recovery!!
Good news is welcome, much like the plea to look for the helpers! Maybe the NFL reigning Chiefs continue their winning ways, as a pleasant diversion and yes even if , or perhaps especially if, it’s a vibe from a favorite sports team or franchise.
Blessings on you.
Wishing you the bestest recovery!!
Herzlich wilkommen, Herr HMP! May your doughty immune system confound all enemies!
Second all of the above and wishing you a swift recovery.
Is this THAAD gig our Zion Bien Phu?
It will probably end up as Lockheed Martin’s ‘Per Diem Gone Phooey.’ Aka. the “Blast from the Past.”
> Aka. the “Blast from the Past.”
Or “The Past from the Blast” (Hiroshima, Nagasaki).
Who in the Donkey Show braintrust decided that aspirant for top position need to be Annie Oakley & Ned Buntline?
That might be what they wanted, but they look more like The Gang Who Can’t Shoot Straight.
Expect them all to be gathered in the Alamo for the election night party.
They wanna be Will Munny of Unforgiven…instead they look like the phonies that many presumed or possibly had presumed them to be.
Maybe the better approach comes to mind of these poseurs applying lighter weaponry, ala a pivotal scene from science fiction… Aliens when the Colonial Marines are or have descended several sub levels to find where all the personal transmitters went to…”What are we supposed to use now, harsh language?”
The Kowloon Walled City cross-section drawing was featured some time ago here on NC. There are (in some cases, were) links to larger images of the drawing where you could see more clearly all the features that the Japanese artists were able to show. Fascinating.
You’re quite right. I thought there were two teams and this was the second.
I’ve stayed in Kowloon a couple of times en route to other places, and I gotta say, it still feels like that picture. The hotel rooms I rent are little wider than closets. Interesting place, but not a somewhere to go if you’re a claustrophobe.
Just wonderful to see details like laundry drying and people watching tv. Much appreciate the work done by the draftsmen/women. I have a love of building sections (if someone else draws them:))
The War On Cash is in full bloom at Grand Canyon NP, debit or credit cards only accepted at the park entrance, but you couldn’t help but notice the donation box in the visitor center is an all cash and coin affair.
Inside Mt. Rainier NP this summer, the White River campground debuted a system where the only way to pay for a campsite is through a phone app, but there is no mobile phone/internet connectivity there, so you must download the app before you go and…well I don’t know how they accept payments through the app without connectivity, but somehow they do. Plus, the campground is first-come first-serve. PLUS, you needed an advance reservation to even enter the front gate of the NP. SO, you needed to 1) At least a few weeks in advance, find a time slot where a front gate reservation was available, 2) before entering the mobile phone dead zone, download the campsite app to a phone and understand how it works, 3) Go to the park at the appointed time, 4) drive in to the campground to see if any spaces are available. If not: tough luck, hope you enjoyed your visit, see you next year!
On a trip a couple of months ago I stopped at Federal campgrounds and they now have a machine where you are supposed to pay with plastic with human attendants hard to find. Needless to say this new version of the “honor system” likely no more effective than the old. The NPS did say they were going to stop taking cash because it cost more to process the cash than they make by taking it. Earlier generations avoided this problem by getting in free to our national lands. Congress approved enough money back then so the parks didn’t need to charge.
Locally I’ve been surprised that our city trails are being cleared of Helene meaning around here the “commons” getting a better deal. Of course in some ways for us it’s a real estate promotion whereas the Feds likely see the national lands as “useless eaters.”
Free admission to the National Parks would be something for a New Deal Revival Party to run on, as well as the restoration of other features of a better time. To be paid for by a restoration of the FDR-Eisenhower era tax code.
It’s a long drive to the North Rim. So if you show up and lack cash do they turn you away? Seems kinda cold.
And the fish rots from the Blinken
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/blinken-diplomacy-ukraine/
Lotsa rim to rim hikers around these parts.
Its the right time of the year to walk 23 miles through time-
I added orts and scraps, including a detailed look at an especially “Big if True” piece of oppo on Walz. Enjoy!
The tweet you link to is more detailed than the rumors I’ve heard which pretty much begin and end with “Walz slept with a former student.”
When Walz first ran I admit I found it more than passing strange that a teacher had moved from one state to another. As a retired resume writer I can assure you that teachers very rarely cross state lines because it almost always entails taking more college classes to qualify in the new state which makes it all but impossible to stay employed. That both he and his spouse are teachers makes their relocation very unusual. The reason given is that Gwen Walz is from Minnesota but that doesn’t really wash.
Then the story broke about the DUI/speeding and I just assumed that triggered the move. I would make a lousy gossip columnist but I liked Walz the candidate. He won in a conservative CD and was my Congressman when I moved back to Minnesota. I had a yard sign for his Governor’s run.
I do know that I’ve learned more about Walz in the last two months than I did from all the years he Blue Dogged in Congress and then became Governor. I liked him as a candidate mostly because his staff never ratted him out like Klobuchar’s did. If I’d heard about his temper it would have flipped my opinion.
Now that I’m hearing ‘dirt’, it just seems to keep coming and in ways consistent with previous dirt. Also thinking I owe some Guard folks an apology because I always thought the Guard criticism was hyperpolitical. Possibly, but not terribly germane given that those facts are indeed facts.
> Now that I’m hearing ‘dirt’, it just seems to keep coming
Oppo works. To me, it’s all petty but the DUI, and it’s possible to stop drinking; that’s what AA is all about. To me, the Guard stuff is just dick-measuring; they’re jealous because he left the small, closed circle and did something with his life. Mostly, it’s vibes. And vibes can be generated. I mean, do we really think Walz is a CCP asset?
I also think the Kamala campaign is mis-using him dreadfully. He’s a high-school teacher, and by all accounts a very good one. He’s also adept at high school cruelty (“weird,” which he managed to tag the entire Republican Party with in the space of a week). Then Kamala decided that the Cheneys weren’t weird at all, but that in fact she wanted to hang out with them. So cross one major Walz talent off the list (which is, in my view, why he was so bad in the debate; the staff’s nicey-nice script didn’t work for him). Then they cross his teaching talent off the list — teaching isn’t manly? really? — and force him to cosplay for the gunhumpers whose votes they will never get. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid.
Of course, this is the stupidest timeline, so maybe Kamala will win…
Here is a report on the actual state of the US/NATO agglomeration. Not good news for the hegemon, I’m afraid. Few troops, few weapons, enormous corrupt bureaucracy. The Combined West appears to have picked the very much wrong fight — giving everyone else a common enemy to coalesce against and sharpen their military and economic claws. Faint hope that our overlords could ever find the keys to a positive-sum exit. Russia has said it is done with the US, other than maybe to prepare defenses against special ops and nuclear attack, which seems about all the globalists have left.
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/
The YT Body Language Guy did a point by point commentary on the manly men Kamala ad that people here might find interesting. I especially liked his point about the “three carburetors screaming in pain as they were digested” by that guy. Pretty funny stuff, and the comments are pretty good as well….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3-QN854DzQ
…”No testosterone detected in this ad.” Maybe not what the campaign was hoping for when they made that.
On, its own I don’t hate the ad. I appreciate what it’s trying to do outside of the short term political message, but the problem is Harris is running a “vibes” based campaign and nothing else. Instead of being a message about positive masculinity and what that really means, it crosses into parody.
Its probably too comical to work, but instead of saying, “I’m a man because I’m not letting kids starve” etc while not being classic John Wayne stereotypes it’s just “I’m a manly man who loves my (looks directly at camera) husband and red meat!” The first guy who says, “I’m not afraid of women,” was just a terrible choice.
From the issue perspective, “women’s issues” don’t resonate with men because they don’t deal with them. People usually respond to issues they deal with everyday or dealt with everyday. Get excited for something you don’t care about! If there was more, it would work.
Then again, “Queer Eye for the Straight Guy” premiered over 20 years ago. This ad is just kind of there. Mac (the character not the actor who has a thing for birds) on Its Always Sunny in Philadelphia has been out for five years now. James Baker is the guy who fought for and won gay marriage in California. This is an ad to make the Karens feel good without taking a stand.
I think that where that ad really falls down is not even so much with the people they have mouthing platitudes and trying to embody stale stereotypes as that most men have recognized the platitudes and stereotypes for most of their lives and found them wanting. I spent most of my youth trying to fix my cars, and what I really took from those experiences is that I suck at fixing cars. That Sixty-eight Mustang was an awesome experience to race, but it would not have been so had I been the guy replacing the radiator. Cars perpetually up on blocks are not fun.
Trying to fix my own cars is ultimately self defeating and cost ineffective, so I take them to someone who actually likes that sort of thing and give him/her a challenge along with a wad of cash. I don’t actually give a damn who fixes the convertible, just that I have a convertible that works when I want one. I think that is how most men are, and there is no shame in that. The much better commercial, IMHO, would have been one in which my wife is out in the driveway replacing the convertible top while I cheer her on from a deck chair with a gin and tonic. It certainly would have been more realistic.
It is much more “manly” to own up to your abilities, or lack of them, than to try and embody something that does not exist purely to impress people you don’t care about.
Some years ago, I used to date a girl who loved hunting and fishing. I used to worry about having to deal with deer carcass and such if we got serious enough. I gather that this is actually not uncommon in the part of rural Louisiana where she’s from (apparently, lots of young women there hunt…).
I am as always late to the party. But I watched that ad, and my first thought, who on earth was this thing made for? No one I know or would recognize. My first thought was that this was an SNL parody. If the Harris campaign thinks this ad appeals to anyone real, or leaves anyone with a positive sense of the candidate … I don’t know, they must be even more disconnected than I first imagined. Do they view men as some kind of alien variant that communicates in some uniquely coded language that demands references to working on cars, or weight lifting? I mean, never mind that the main concern with people I know, men, women, whoever, is that Harris has zero demonstration of real governance skills, or understanding of foreign policy, or economics, or recognition of how much quality of life has deteriorated for most people in this country. JFC. The stupidity evident in thinking this is how to approach undecided male voters is breathtaking.
And the last cars produced with carburetors were early nineties at best. Even motorcycles for the last 20 years.
Sorry for the rant. But this pisses me off. Beyond pathetic, is all I can say.
I love the Body Language Guy. He’s funny. He did a lot on Markle and Handbag.
Taibbi has come out with an article on this called “The most self sabotaging political ad ever?” that looks like it will be well worth reading, unfortunately it is behind a paywall for me. My wife has a subscription, so maybe I will get to see it when she does.
I think that the guys in that ad were from some impromptu actors group hired for the job and it shows. Yesterday I came across a YouTube clip showing what a real man is like in reality-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yziksOgUuTM (2:13 mins)
Fox researched the actors some
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cringeworthy-pro-harris-ad-showcasing-male-support-featured-professional-actors
> The Body Language Guy
Comedy gold.
Kamala Oppo Lite:
Re. “…she [Kamala] recovered later that day by reiterating an earlier promise that, unlike Biden, she would appoint a Republican to her Cabinet.”
That should be: “…she [Kamala] recovered later that day by reiterating an earlier promise that, unlike Biden, she would appoint a Democrat to her Cabinet.” Much more believable.
lol. thanks.
(Is Nikki Haley holding her breath? / ;)
LOL me to, Thanks.
Interesting if true, as they say. Was the arrest a setup? From twtr-X:
The man they just arrested for supposedly “trying to kill” Trump in Coachella….is my good friend and business partner for America Happens, Vem Miller.
Vem had just exposed a huge Deep State cover-up involving the Feds and the Bundy Ranch scandal. So I firmly believe this is 100% some kind of set-up in retribution for exposing it.
https://x.com/iheartmindy/status/1845574763856728549
It’s only young people and males,
(blinks).
She’s only doing poorly with males! They are barely half the population!
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/opinion/trump-china-election.html
October 14, 2024
What China’s Leaders Grasp About Another Trump Term
By Rush Doshi
At the beginning of the Biden presidency, many of us serving in the National Security Council gathered to read the intelligence and reached a key conclusion: The 2020s would be what we called the “decisive decade” in U.S. competition with China.
Beijing seeks to displace the United States from its global leadership position and is a formidable challenger. It is America’s first geopolitical rival to surpass 70 percent of U.S. G.D.P., exceed American industrial capacity and pull ahead in multiple technology sectors, such as electric vehicles, hypersonic weapons and nuclear energy technology. Absent corrective action, the United States risks falling behind China technologically, growing dependent on it economically and perhaps even suffering defeat by China’s military in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea. How the next U.S. president navigates the remaining years of this decisive decade will have far-reaching consequences for America and the rest of the world.
The good news is that despite deep divisions in American politics, Democrats and Republicans now broadly agree on the need to outcompete China. They have enacted legislation intended to boost American technological leadership, revive domestic manufacturing, promote human rights around the world, strengthen American deterrence in the Taiwan Strait and bolster Asia-Pacific alliances.
That united front will be undermined if Donald Trump is elected again…
[ Democratic leaders have targeted China and mean to continue to do so, while threatening that Donald Trump will undermine hostility to China which will in turn threaten America. Democratic leaders have undermined decades of friendly relations with China from Nixon to Ford to Carter to Reagan to Bush… ]
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/opinion/trump-china-election.html
October 14, 2024
What China’s Leaders Grasp About Another Trump Term
China is America’s most formidable geopolitical rival in a century, and thanks to Mr. Trump’s term in office, leaders in Beijing are acutely aware of what he is about and how to manipulate him. They believe China is rising and America is declining. Electing Mr. Trump next month risks proving them right.
— Rush Doshi
[ Shameful prejudice, but this is the way in which Democratic leaders wish to portray Chinese civilization as a threat for the sake of an election. ]
> The good news is that despite deep divisions in American politics, Democrats and Republicans now broadly agree on the need to outcompete China.
LMAO
… love too “outcompete” our geopolitical rival by outsourcing a substantial portion (via optilogic.com) of our supply chain to them.
” Outcompete” is just a Pavlov’s Bell word to get people conditioned to believe in “competition” to attach importance to “outcompeting” China. It reminds me of when that Jock Senator Bill Bradley lectured us all about not being “afraid” to “compete” on the global basketball court of Free Trade.
An American Okayness Ordinarian would suggest forgetting about “outcompeting” and focus on survivalizing in a Chinese-ordered world.
An American Okayness Ordinarian would suggest forgetting about “outcompeting” and focus on survivalizing in a Chinese-ordered world.
[ Wildly clever. ]
National Survivalism in One Country.
National Greenism in One Country.
etc. etc.
We need a political party for that.
And now that I think about it, its slogan-motto could be . . .
Make America O K Again. MAOKA.
We could put that in big white letters on red hats.
Better keep that ‘Again” in there, or else it could turn into just
Make
America
Okay
and someone might notice how that stacks up. . . .
As I understand it, the Chinese economy is about 20-25% larger than the US economy and the gap is widening by about 1-2% each year, so this article is wildly overoptimistic.
That the US tries to “promote human rights around the world” is not something which anyone who was not a deranged NYT reader could possibly believe.
Trump, it will be recalled, introduced the trade war with China which the Biden administration (after denouncing it in opposition) continued.
How does pouring weapons into east Asia improve America’s economic position against China? Arguably it’s military Keynesianism, but the Chinese can play the same game, and are in a much better position to do so.
And this comes from someone in the National Security Council? I could understand it from a brain-damaged DNC hack, but this man has access to the finest US intelligence briefs, and he should —
Oh, wait, yeah.
Thanks for the Saul Leiter photo. He was one of the greatest photographers ever.
> Thanks for the Saul Leiter photo
Those early colorists were really great. Ernst Hass. Vivien Maier. I think the built environment wasn’t overwhelmed with colorways, then, too, so the color combinations were more vivid.
The car in the Saul Leiter photo is a Chevrolet. It looks very like the 1956 Chevy two-door sedan(correct word?) we had when I was a kid. That picture really set off memories.
Don’t know about others but the whole shotgun thing was all wrong at first viewing, don’t think he was loading per the link as I saw no shells in his hand, and who loads like that.
Other than that the whole Dem PR campaign has my mind thinking of the old Scott Ritter Movie ‘Real Men’. Seems like they story booked it and then used new actors and back drops.
Punch line being “Who are those Clowns” …
Skippy,
You asked a very important and timely question about economics as a science or as a morality play. I am working on the question, but today was timely in the Nobel Prize that was awarded with economists split as to the answer.
Anyway, I have not forgotten.
Kamala’s video of ‘males’ reminds me of the male strip shows for women, back in the 1980s. There was a similar range of characters such as a cowboy, firefighter, construction worker and an ‘African’ dressed in a leopard skin.(When I asked what tribe the African was from, he responded ‘Ubangit.) They were mostly a spoof and not raunchy like female strippers i.e. jock straps never came off. Maybe Kamala enjoyed them, too?
“I ain’t afraid of bears” Teeheehee /ifyaknowwhatimean
Who vetted this? Apparently the kind of people who think an ad composed entirely of ‘I’m not afraid of’ has some positive appeal.
> “I ain’t afraid of bears”
Perhaps a subtle reference to “the bear question“? But too subtle for me to understand… .
I couldn’t take very much of the manly manly men. It’s annoying because I do think there are conversations that need to be had around the modern definition of masculinity, but this kind of thing contributes nothing and probably makes things worse.
I don’t remember the exact year, but in those days they had a band of male strippers called the Chippendale’s. Now that I said that, and did a search, founded 1979. You have good memory.
I remember them because at the time I worked in a bowling alley (second job) and the 9:00 bowling league was 24 lanes of women. That was the hot topic a few weeks before the dancers were going to be in our area. The plans were being made… I remember teasing them about it. Great times, so much fun.
Things were so much different back then.
#Harris
Her descent continues …
Every day brings with it more bizarre behavior as the bottom of the vibes barrel gets scraped for vapid tribal virtual meme signaling dregs.
Last election cycle, I was digging deep into polling data to see trends and to glean further insights from the nature of the sample pool. I have not been doing that this time, but I did take time to check out the only RCP poll released today from Harvard-Harris (via harvardharrispoll.com). Not a lot of good news for Harris here at all – see slides 27 to 31. Trump has a greater percentage of voters dug in, especially in battleground states. Also, it’s really sad to see so many respondents basically buying into the bipartisan line on all things “Syraqistan”. It would appear that some (very bad) people are very good at their jobs.
#WalzHunting
Hear me out … maybe … just maybe, if instead of trying to pull people into your tent using identity (via identity-adjacent avocations and such) … maybe if instead of doing that, you could articulate in vibrant, dare I say, joyous details, all the ways in which you were going to deliver to those same people, tangible, material benefits in all the ways they would find important on a daily basis … maybe you wouldn’t have your meme team delivering you unprepared into bushman cosplay faux pas land.
They totally wasted this dude’s folksy gifts by trying to shoehorn him …
tangible, material benefits
I’ve tried this multiple times at the coffee shop TDS table to a resoudingly dull thud.
At least now I can reference back to all the times I’ve said it…and yes they’re worried but I’m like what? Me worry?
This may help:
LOL … 😂
But, but, but JOY!
Yeah — more like Joy Division …🤨
It’s this meme … LOL (via YouTube)
The joy has dissolved!
I think one assumption that must be made about polls is that they are wrong in favor of Harris by at least 3–that is, Trump is undercounted%. I bought into the party line until recently that, after 2016, the efforts by pollsters to get their numbers right had reduced the error–until I started looking up the numbers from 2016 and 2020, and came to the same conclusion that an article linked form NC some time ago concluded: after 2012 (when the errors were in favor of Obama), the errors had been growing larger, not smaller. In 2020, Trump outperformed his polls (using 528 numbers as the baseline) by 3.8% nationally and up to 5-6% in various parts of the Midwest (esp MI and WI). If we adjust the polls to reflect these, this could easily be an electoral college massacre and a popular vote win for Trump. I get the sense that the Dem insiders are taking these into account when they are interpreting the polls (I don’t think they have a more accurate polls, but their pollsters probably gave them details on how “wrong” they feel the superficial data is and why.)
I’ve wondered if the errors are mostly ethnics walking/running from dems, which apparently continues this cycle.
Dems have seemed quite inept for a long time, granted oligarchs might be more interested in loyalty than competence, explaining Kamala.
Seems really likely trump prevails, don’t care what the guru thinks.
Kamala Harris’s Plagiarism Problem Christopher Rufo:
Woo hoo! So Kamala and Scranton Joe share a bond….
Cheat, lie, and steal. Isn’t that totally acceptable behavior these days?
Be fair, if poor Kamalala can’t plagiarize, how can she have opinions?
Walter Kirn had the right sense of this “scandal” which is that it is not what this plagiarism hunter thinks it is.
I’d have to know the exact chronology but most likely the person who wrote Harris’ Wikipedia page had access to notes or a prepublication copy of Harris’ book. Assuming they didn’t also write the book. I suspect this is two different kinds of ghostwriting: Wikipedia done by staff or a PR firm and the book ghostwritten by a pro.
Harris’ people copied from each other. That’s not plagiarism, that’s collaboration. Insufficiently attributed but such is the life of ghostwriters.
> Harris’ people copied from each other.
Staff problems are a consistent theme.
Taibbi and Kirn, no paywall.
ATW Livestream Tonight at 8 PM ET/7 PM CT: Men, Pheasants, … and More From the Trump-Harris Race
Walter Kirn and Matt Taibbi update the fast-evolving presidential crackup
https://www.racket.news/p/atw-livestream-tonight-at-8-pm-et7-c84
The Democrat candidate for VP would make a better show of the common touch had he had a Remington 870 in his hands. These being ‘far’ more common amongst the average bird hunter, in my experience. Added to which, as photo ops go, whilst Remington were long made in Ilion, NY (where mine was produced), they recently moved to Lagrange, GA. Surely it would have made more sense to mention an American made gun. Of course, the move likely had more to do with Georgia’s generally lower labor costs (Remington sold out to a PE firm not long ago so maybe not using a Remington was smart as New Yorkers probably aren’t happy to have lost one of their oldest manufacturers). However, using a Baretta, an Italian product? Like how stupid are they? Then again, I watched him play at loading and immediately knew he was a fake. What a joke.
Really liked that ‘Couple walk in snow’ painting featured and saved myself a copy. Thanks for it.
Same. Returned to it again and again. Evocative scene.
> that ‘Couple walk in snow’ painting
It’s actually a photograph, but that you think it’s a painting is a great compliment to Saul Leiter.
Apparently Leiter was an early experimenter in colour film from the 40s on ‘using slide film such as Kodachrome’-
https://www.saulleiterfoundation.org/color
Damn he was good.
I’m A Man
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYti8CIiOak
If this item about Trump Rally Buses not picking back up the people they brought to a Trump Rally, and the reason given for why they did not return ( if indeed they did not return) is all correct, then it is possible that the Trump side will lose some votes over this the way that the Harris side will lose some votes over the Big Gretch “doggie-treat” video. Maybe not as many, but some.
Here is the link.
https://www.reddit.com/r/johnoliver/comments/1g3vk6f/i_had_my_suspicions/
And here is an item from WhitePeopleTwitter.
https://www.reddit.com/r/WhitePeopleTwitter/comments/1g3grw8/this_is_maga/
It is about the Forest Service advising all Federal Personnel in Rutherford County to stand down and evacuate the county after being advised that National Guardsmen came across two trucks full of armed people saying they were out hunting FEMA personnel.
( Now . . . does this item get it “righter”? Maybe so. That makes it narrower, but still not good.
https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/1g3bobc/fema_contractors_ordered_to_stand_down_after/
And here is a Belle of the Fifth Column video about this same subject.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEaU4-2GoQ0
I personally would say that it would be counterproductive for Federal Forces to try forcibly guaranteeing security for these FEMA and FEMA-adjacent personnel. If the people of Rutherford County and other counties affected by these MAGA militias making recovery too dangerous for FEMA and FEMA-adjacent personnel to engage in, it would be better for the non-militia armed citizens of Rutherford County who want the FEMA help to neutralize these militias on their own without any State or Federal assistance adding fuel to the MAGAnon conspiratheory fire.
Putting aside the condescending and pandering optics of the hunting video, just want to remind people of a detail that IM Doc pointed out. Walz was in the National Guard long enough to qualify to retire from it not just quit. He should be familiar with gun safety and basic gun handling of multiple weapon typesafter two decades in the Guard. He didn’t just come off as newbie to bird hunting, but to his weapon and to basic weapons safety procedures in the video. WTH.
He probably doesn’t wear a crash-helmet when he goes riding on his motorcycle. Too bad it’s a BMW.
“They tend to be overrepresented in the true swing voter universe but there are a bunch of these independents who generally consider themselves Republicans who are repelled by Trump. And so you ask: How do we go from basically 48 to 50? Well, it’s going to be some of those voters.”
I have a friend like that. Lifelong Democrat who was going to write in Jill Stein since he has contempt for Harris, but he has decided to vote for Trump, against ALL of his personal inclinations. Part of the reason is that he thinks Trump would be better for Israel. And I think he is right about that. Not having a regional war would be better for Israel (regardless of what individual Israelis believe), and Harris is sure doing her best to promote a regional war.
Now, here is a pre-emptive corrective to noise which is sure to be made about ” Nazis in the Trump Boat Parade in Florida.” Its full title is: ” Nazis joined Trump Boats Parade in Florida, shouting slurs & got splashed by other Trump’s boaters.” Catch that? ” Got SPLASHED by OTHer BOATers.” Who clearly felt that the Nazis in a boat were out of tune with the purpose and spirit of the Trump Boat Parade.
https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/1g3ncdw/nazis_joined_trump_boats_parade_in_florida/