2:00PM Water Cooler 10/15/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Blue-and-white Mockingbird, Montaña de Izopo–Sector Las Moras, Francisco Morazán, Honduras. “Longer cut of quiet song of clipped low phrases with sudden louder bursts interspersed, including mechanical-sounding vocalizations. Also heard are Painted Redstart, Dusky-capped Flycatcher, Wilson’s Warbler, Orange-billed Nightingale-Thrush, and Hairy Woodpecker.”

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In Case You Might Miss…

1. CIA Democrats.
2. Kamala and Biden teams at odds.
3. Trump Town Hall not the debacle it might have been.
4. Boeing to borrow billions, delays 777X, plans drastic white-collar cuts.

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Less than thirty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error and go with the narrative, another good week for Trump, especially in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, in the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

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“Trump is in a better polling spot now than he was against Clinton or Biden” [USA Today]. “If polls are any guide – and there are many questions about them – Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is in better shape now than he was at this time in 2020 and in his winning White House campaign of 2016. Yes, Trump trails Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in most polls. But the all-important caveat is that he’s down against the incumbent vice president by smaller margins than he faced in his first two general elections – both of which saw him score higher with actual voters than the ones who responded to pollsters.” • Handy chart:

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Kamala (D): “Tensions rise between Harris and Biden teams as election nears” [Axios]. “Biden gave an impromptu press conference in the White House briefing room Friday just as Harris was about to do an event in Michigan, ensuring that her event would get less TV coverage than it otherwise would have. Earlier in the week, Harris criticized Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) for not taking her call about the recent hurricanes, only for Biden to praise DeSantis soon after for being ‘gracious’ and ‘cooperative.’ (A person familiar with the situation told Axios that Biden hadn’t been briefed on Harris’ comments.) Biden has been eager to boast about a robust jobs report, helping to end the strike by the longshoremen’s union and other perceived victories recently. Harris has been trying to focus on voters’ pocketbook concerns, including inflation. One person involved with Harris’ campaign told Axios: ‘The White House is lacking someone in the room thinking first and foremost about how things would affect the campaign.'” • I’m starting to think “room” needs to be one of those words. Once you notice it, it’s everywhere. Started witb “adults in the room,” I think. Remember them?

Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris’ press tour was a missed opportunity” [MSNBC]. “And that is the problem: The Harris campaign conducted this tour not because it had something new to say, but because it needed to redirect the media narrative about its candidate. ‘There is at times an impression that her campaign consists almost entirely of pivots,’ Alex Shephard smartly observed in The New Republic earlier this week, while a New York Times headline said she ‘Continues to Bob and Weave’ in interviews. It all adds to the very mood the press tour was supposed to dispel.” And: “As the media tour came to a close with a Univision town hall on Thursday night, I was left with the same vague impression I had before the press tour — which makes that tour a massive missed opportunity. There was no moment akin to Bill Clinton blowing the horn on ‘The Arsenio Hall Show’ in 1992, nothing surprising or unexpected. Running out the clock may [???] not be an option. ‘Polls coming in show Harris peaked and interviews not helping. Swing states trending away from Harris,’ veteran pollster Mark Penn wrote in a social media post. ‘It’s not over until it’s over and this is still on a razor’s edge so it can flip back but that’s a fair read of newest polling.’ And in The New York Times, the former Obama communications director Daniel Pfeiffer pointed out that Trump is making critical inroads with younger men by appearing on nontraditional podcasts and streaming shows. Pfeiffer observed that 13 million people watched Trump’s interview with comedian Theo Von, ‘about twice the viewership of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz’s much ballyhooed interview with Dana Bash of CNN.'”

Kamala (D): “Inside the media blitz: three days on the campaign trail with Kamala Harris” [Guardian]. “She was comfortable in her skin.” • I haven’t heard that one deployed in years.

Kamala (D): So much for Black Insurrectionist? He of the Tim Walz oppo?

Why did Black Insurrectionist change his bio since yesterday? Where’s the next drops? I think I’ve/we’ve been duped pic.twitter.com/cX0uU6mKm1

— 🇺🇸ULTRA MAGA 1776🇺🇸 (@MAGAMARIE3) October 14, 2024

Note the followers on the left hand screen shot, who disappeared on the right hand screen shot. And when you’ve lost Megyn Kelly:

I don’t know whether the stuff being peddled by a certain X account re: Tim Walz has even a scintilla of truth behind it. I see the many obvious red flags.
What I can report is that a month ago this same account claimed he had an ABC whistleblower (1) alleging serious ethical…

— Megyn Kelly (@megynkelly) October 14, 2024

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Kamala (D): “Democratic voter registration raises red flags for Harris” [The Hill]. “Democrats’ voter registration advantage has dropped in three key battleground states — Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada — raising a red flag for Vice President Harris as experts cite a lack of enthusiasm for the Biden administration brand and the Democratic Party, generally, as problems.” And: “David Paleologos, the director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston, said Democrats had about a 666,000-person voter registration advantage over Republicans in Pennsylvania in 2020, which has shrunk to a 354,000-person advantage in 2024. He said the Democrats’ voter registration advantage in North Carolina has shrunk from 393,000 voters in 2020 to approximately 130,000 voters in 2024. ‘The general shift has been away from being registered as a Democrat over the last four years,’ Paleologos told The Hill.’ It’s been more of a decrease of registered Democrats’ than a surge in Republican voter registrations, he explained. ‘I don’t think a lot of people have really put their arms around the fact that when Trump won North Carolina in 2020, there were like 390,000 more registered Democrats and he still won, and today the advantage of Democrats over Republicans is only like 130,000. It’s been cut by two-thirds of an advantage,” he said.” And: “In Nevada, Paleologos said Democrats have seen their voter registration advantage fall away. He said Democrats’ had a net registration advantage of nearly 79,000 in 2020. It has since fallen to a net advantage of 29,000 registered voters. ‘It could be enough to keep it close, or it could go to Trump, just because they’ve lost 50,000 net registered Democrats,’ he said.” •

Kamala (D): “CNN’s Enten: GOP Has Made Big Gains In Party Registration, Identification Since 2020” [RealClearPolitics]. “CNN’s Harry Enten looked at party registration data in the swing states and nationally ahead of the 2024 election, which he says compared to past elections, suggests Republicans are on track to win…. The question is: Where are they picking up ground? This, to me, says it all. If you look at Pennsylvania counties where the GOP has gained in registration, in counties where less than 50% of the population is non-college white voters, Republicans have gained just a point. But in areas where over 50% are non-college whites, look at this—Republicans have gained six points on average. They’re picking up ground in the areas you’d expect: non-college white-dominated areas, coal country in the northeast, southwest outside of Pittsburgh. The bottom line is, the registration trends we’ve been seeing over the last few cycles — with Republicans dominating among non-college white voters — are very much showing up in party registration.” And: “Party registration is when you’re actually registered with a party. Party ID is when you say, ‘I feel like a Democrat today’ or ‘I feel like a Republican.’ They’re correlated, but they’re not exactly the same. The GOP leads by a point in party identification right now. The average when the Republican Party loses is the Democrats ahead by eight. When the Republican Party wins, the average party ID advantage for Democrats is at three. Republicans right now, are doing even better than the average when they win. If there’s one little nugget that I think Republicans are really helpful for this party ID and this party registration data, it really points in a good direction for them and for Donald Trump.”

“Harris rallies in a Pennsylvania bellwether county, calling Trump too ‘unstable and unhinged’ to be president” [NBC]. “To make up for any losses in rural areas, Harris’ campaign has sought to court Nikki Haley voters from the GOP primaries, who are concentrated largely in well-educated suburbs and could help Harris grow her coalition and improve on Biden’s 2020 margins.” • Hence, Dick Cheney’s spawn.

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Kamala (D): “Harris Fights to Counter Trump’s Appeal With Black Men” [Wall Street Journal]. On Obama’s intervention: “”‘While I understand the sentiment of having a desire to see increased engagement, chastising voters has never worked, and it won’t work this time either,’ said [Quentin James, founder and president of the Collective PAC, a pro-Harris group], who gave the Harris campaign feedback on the new set of policies rolled out on Monday aimed at improving the economic position of Black men. Asked if it would be helpful for Obama to reiterate those comments at future campaign stops, James said: ‘If the goal is to increase Black male engagement, hell no.'” More: “The new policies and football meetup [stereotype] are part of Harris’s latest efforts to reach out to Black men, a core constituency for the party. Polling shows a potential lack of enthusiasm among those voters with early voting already under way in some states. Securing the support of Black men could prove decisive in key battleground races, particularly as Harris attempts to drive up turnout in places like Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta. The vice president wants to offer one million forgivable business loans for Black entrepreneurs to use to start businesses, create more training and apprenticeship programs and study diseases, such as diabetes and sickle cell anemia, that predominantly affect Black men…. The Harris campaign’s self-described ‘opportunity agenda for Black men’ would regulate cryptocurrency and digital currencies to protect Black investors, promote more Black men into the teaching profession and reiterate the vice president’s support for legalizing marijuana.” • Maybe I didn’t get the memo, but I don’t see how crypto fits in here. Also, speaking of an “opportunity economy,” how about an amnesty for the marijuana growers and dealers who built a business sector now worth billions? Legalization is not enough.

Kamala (D): Maybe the the “Manly Man” ad wasn’t aimed at men at all? Hat tip Nippersdad:

Maybe I’m assuming the Harris hive mind is more Machiavellian than it really is, but maybe the ad — hear me out — was aimed at suburban women? (“We promise men will be as men are in this ad”). Sort of a very light touch version of Lysistratic Non-Action. Just a thought! And on white women:

Harris is doing the best for a Democratic presidential candidate among white women in the 21st century… That's big cause they make up such a large chunk of the electorate…

Why is Harris doing so well? It would appear that abortion rights is a driving force… pic.twitter.com/zQHFifAwcf

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 15, 2024

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Trump (R): “Trump’s Pennsylvania town hall, interrupted by medical emergencies in crowd, turned into an impromptu concert” [ABC]. “Former President Donald Trump’s town hall in Oaks, Pennsylvania, on Monday evening was interrupted twice by medical emergencies in a very warm Greater Philadelphia Expo Center and Fairgrounds before he pivoted — turning the concert into an impromptu concert where he stood on stage swaying to music for nearly 45 minutes. There was a medical emergency that required an attendee to be placed on a stretcher about 30 minutes into the event. As the crowd started singing ‘God Bless America,’ Trump requested that ‘Ave Maria’ be played on the loudspeakers as medics tended to the man. Moments later, there was a second medical emergency…. Following the medical emergencies, Trump requested that the doors be opened but he was advised that for security reasons that wasn’t possible. Both Trump and moderator South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem commented on the heat in the room…. He continued, “Let’s not do any more questions. Let’s just listen to music. Let’s make it into a music fest. Who the hell wants to hear questions right? Isn’t that beautiful?” The former president, adamant about playing his music, stood on stage for nearly 45 minutes swaying to several songs on his playlist as the crowd sang and danced along. The crowd slowly dispersed, but many stayed for the entirety of the campaign event.” ¨• There’s a lot of dogpiling over this on the Twitter, but if the crowd was singing and dancing along, and they didn’t leave, I think that’s great, and great word-of-mouth for Trump (reminds me of a Grateful Dead concert when the sound system failed). Hard to imagine Kamala doing this (no experience with show business, no similar connection to the crowd, I’m guessing, and no capacity to improvise as Trump did. I imagine the staff would have shut the rally down entirely, which would have been a debacle).

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PA: “Harris rallies in a Pennsylvania bellwether county, calling Trump too ‘unstable and unhinged’ to be president” [NBC]. “ERIE, Pa. — Vice President Kamala Harris rallied a packed crowd Monday night in Erie County, a bellwether that has a knack for predicting who carries Pennsylvania, having mirrored the outcome of this crucial battleground state in the last four elections. Harris sharpened her attacks on Donald Trump, using a big screen to play clips of the former president calling for outlawing dissent and criticisms among ‘the enemy within.'” The big screen is new, I think. More: “[Erie’s] median income is lower than the national average, as is its share of college-educated people…. Fetterman won the state by maximizing votes in the metropolitan areas and limiting his margins of defeat in the red-trending rural areas. Now, he’s trying to help Harris do the same. While Obama and Gov. Josh Shapiro rallied Thursday in Pittsburgh, Fetterman toured the red counties to make the case for her…. ‘Sometimes it’s not about turning these counties blue. You’re not going to change the culture of rural-county Pennsylvania. It’s about reaching out to reachable people,’ he said. ‘I would be surprised if she wins by 3 points. She will win Pennsylvania, but I would expect it might be closer than that.'”

PA: “How Pittsburgh’s Suburbs Could Flip Pennsylvania to Trump” [RealClearPennsylvania]. ” Instead, the focus lies on subdivision-spawned places like Cranberry Township to the north, the bedroom communities of southern Butler County, and the once-solid Rust Belt Democrat precincts of Washington County to the south. These areas, many of which have been reliable parts of the Democratic coalition since the time of the New Deal, are trending Republican in ways that should alarm party strategists. This oversight is partly understandable – the Philadelphia metro area is significantly larger (6.3 million people as opposed to Pittsburgh’s 2.37 million), richer, and several hours closer to major media markets. But it’s a mistake that could lead to how-could-it-happen-here headlines on election night if the GOP secures a win on the back of southwestern Pennsylvania’s suburban voters. The numbers paint a stark picture of this evolution. In 2000, Democrats carried Allegheny County, home to Pittsburgh, plus the seven surrounding counties by nearly 86,000 votes. By 2020, despite massive Democratic gains within Pittsburgh city limits, this same region swung to the Republicans by 38,000 votes. In a state decided by razor-thin margins in recent presidential contests, this 124,000-vote swing is seismic. Cranberry Township exemplifies this change. Once a sleepy rural community, it’s now a booming strip mall and chain eatery-lined suburb of over 30,000 people, more than 90% of whom are white, with a decidedly Republican lean. In 2020, Donald Trump carried Cranberry with over 60% of the vote, a margin unthinkable just a few decades ago when union-affiliated Democratic voters dominated the region. The transformation is even more pronounced in Washington County, once the very definition of a union stronghold. Trump won the county by a staggering 22-point margin in 2020.”

PA: “A week in a swing state taught me a lot about the Maga cult, and gave me hope for Kamala Harris” [Guardian]. Worth a read, but holy moley. This editorial note sums it up: “This article was amended on 13 October 2024 because an earlier version said that Hurricane Helene “ripped through the south-west”. In fact the hurricane affected the south-east region.” Here is a writer who really knows America!

Spook Country

“FBI’s role in Hunter Biden laptop scandal is worse than you know” [Andrew McCarthy, FOX]. “Still, the enduring relevance of the laptop is not as a Biden story, but as a story of the political corruption of the government’s law-enforcement and intelligence apparatus – pillars of our rule of law and our national security. Think about this: The FBI took possession of the laptop in December 2019, and quickly authenticated it – not hard to do because there was a mountain of publicly available information for purposes of corroborating the data, which was incontestably Hunter Biden’s. What’s the significance of that? Well, Election Day wasn’t until November 3, 2020. Hence, while early voting was already underway in the weeks before the election, the FBI had already known for nearly a year that the laptop was the real deal. Despite that, the bureau induced major social media titans, such as Twitter (now X) and Facebook, to suppress derogatory reporting about the Bidens – specifically, the New York Post’s mid-October 2020 reporting on the laptop. How? By deceptively intimating that the Post’s reporting was likely the result of an influence operation carried out by Russian intelligence. In reality, this was an influence operation carried out by current and former U.S. intelligence officials. The FBI was not alone. The government’s ‘Intelligence Community’ routinely shares information. The IC, too, is prone to hype Russian ‘interference’ in U.S. elections. Yet, such ‘influence operations’ are longstanding: Moscow interfered in American politics throughout the Cold War; it has continued to do so since the Soviet Union’s fall up to the present day. Influence ops are also reciprocal: U.S. spy agencies routinely sought to influence Soviet politics and, now, seek to undermine Putin. If they didn’t, what good would they be? For all the heavy-breathing by the media-Democrat complex, modern Russia is a basket-case country run by a mafia-style regime whose election-influence ops are often laughably amateurish. They are, moreover, a negligible ripple in the multi-billion-dollar ocean of American campaign messaging.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

“The CIA Democrats in the 2024 elections” [WSWS] From September. “There are 34 Democrats drawn from the ranks of the military-intelligence apparatus who are running for Congress this year, a continuation of the influx that began in force in 2018. For the fourth consecutive election, the CIA Democrats will grow in influence and numbers, further cementing the ties between this big business party and the most lethal agencies of the capitalist state…. Besides the numerical increase, the influx of CIA Democrats is escalating qualitatively. Two of the original class of CIA Democrats who won seats in the House of Representatives in 2018 are now seeking to move up to the Senate. Former CIA agent and Pentagon official Elissa Slotkin is giving up her Michigan House seat to run for the Senate seat left vacant by the retirement of three-term Senator Debbie Stabenow. Former National Security Council official turned congressman Andy Kim is running in New Jersey to replace incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, who was convicted on corruption charges and resigned. Both are favored to win…. In Virginia, former CIA agent Abigail Spanberger is not seeking reelection to her House seat, announcing plans instead to run for governor of Virginia next year, when Republican Glenn Youngkin leaves after the single term he is allowed under the state constitution. Spanberger is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Spanberger’s replacement in the House is likely to be the most prominent new military-intelligence Democrat: Eugene Vindman, a career military officer born in Ukraine.” Oh man. Vindman? More: “Besides Eugene Vindman, another high-profile military-intelligence operative is seeking a House seat as a Democrat: Maggie Goodlander, the wife of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.” The bottom line: “These numbers demonstrate that the influx of State Department, National Security Council, Pentagon and CIA operatives into Congress, by means of the Democratic Party, is not an accidental phenomenon, or the product of one election cycle. It is the outcome of a definite policy, which has two components. First, the Democratic Party leadership is deliberately cultivating military-intelligence candidates and creating opportunities for them to run in Democratic-leaning congressional districts where they are likely to be elected. Second, sizeable sections of the national security apparatus see the Democratic Party as their preferred vehicle for advancing the interests of American imperialism, to which they have devoted their own careers.” • We might as well be in Tsarist Russia, except the Okhrana got itself elected to the Duma. And to sloganize: “Democrats are spooks who want to mess with your head.” Something like that (which has the merit of being perhaps a chiaroscuro version of the truth).

Realignment and Legitimacy

“ActBlue lobbies up amid GOP probes” [Politico]. “ActBlue, the left’s favored online donation platform, is turning to K Street as it looks to beat back accusations of lax security and donor fraud brought forward by state and federal Republican officials. Covington & Burling’s Matthew Shapanka, a former Senate Rules aide who helped craft the updated bipartisan Electoral Count Act reform bill in 2022, began lobbying for ActBlue on Sept. 9 on the Secure Handling of Internet Electronic Donations — or SHIELD — Act, according to a disclosure filing. The SHIELD Act had been introduced days earlier by House Administration Chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.). It stemmed from an investigation into concerns that ActBlue wasn’t verifying its donors properly because it did not require them to provide the three-digit CVV codes on the back of their cards. Among other things, Steil’s bill would bar political committees from accepting contributions if a CVV code was not provided and would also bar donations made using gift cards, pre-paid credit or debit cards or gift certificates.”

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Airborne Transmission: Covid

“Can the infection risk in elevators be negligible? A comparative study of airborne infection probability in elevators and conference rooms” [Energy and Buildings]. From the Abstract: “The results showed that the infection probability in the elevator with 5 min (average 2.70%) was higher than that in the conference room with 50 min (average 1.77%).” • As Michael Osterholm should know.

Transmission: H5N1

Ulp (1):

Ulp (2):

“milking: ~12 hours a day in close contact w/ cows.

udders ~ high viral loads

need PPE to stop H5N1 bird flu and protect farmworkers, but hard to wear for hours in heat.

need full head helmet w/ powered, purified airflow.”https://t.co/qwMz0MelAD@RanuDhillon https://t.co/kTxu72t2v1

— Devabhaktuni "Sri" Srikrishna (@sri_srikrishna) October 15, 2024

If we were planning for a second pandemic — on top of Covid already weakened immunue systems at a population level — it’s to see how we could be doing a better job. And wastewater:

Vaccines

“New Nasal Vaccines Offer Better Protection from COVID and Flu—No Needle Needed” [Scientific American]. “Vaccines delivered through the nose are now being tested for several diseases. In the U.S., early clinical trials are showing success. Two of these vaccines have generated multiple immune system responses against the COVID-causing virus in people who received them through a puff up the nose; earlier this year their makers received nearly $20 million from Project NextGen, the Biden-Harris administration’s COVID medical initiative. Researchers are optimistic that a nasal spray delivering a COVID vaccine could be ready for the U.S. as soon as 2027. Although recent efforts have focused on inoculations against SARS-CoV-2, nasal vaccines could also protect us against the flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and more.” • 2027 [bangs head on desk].

Sequelae: Covid

“COVID-19 raises the stakes for heart attacks, strokes, and even death long after infection, new study finds” [Fortune]. “Practically from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and medical experts feared–and often loudly warned–that the virus wasn’t like other infections that people might encounter during, say, flu season. SARS-CoV-2 was different. It was worse. And the potential long-term effects, as we reported two years ago, were even more worrisome. A new large-scale study puts those longer-range concerns into bold relief. The results are as unforgiving as many experts had hypothesized. The study, involving nearly a quarter-million adults, found that those with any type of COVID-19 infection in 2020 had twice the risk of suffering a major cardiac event—a heart attack, stroke, or even death—in the three years after a diagnosis than those who weren’t infected. People whose infections were severe enough to warrant hospitalization faced nearly a four times greater risk of a major cardiac event or death than the uninfected group. ‘These findings are undeniable and extremely troubling,’ says David Putrino, the director of the Cohen Center for Recovery from Complex Chronic Illness at Mount Sinai School of Medicine. ‘The significance of this work is that our current public health policy surrounding COVID-19 is inadequate. People need to be informed of the risks they are incurring to their long-term health by being repeatedly infected with SARS-CoV-2.'” • Oh, yeah, personal risk assessment, that’s been working great. Why not clean the air?

“Long COVID Rates in Kids Revised Upward: What to Know” [MedScape]. “In the most expansive study of its kind, researchers have for the first time shown serious and prevalent symptoms of long COVID in kids and teens. The August study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, is among the first large comprehensive studies of the disorder in this age group. The study, which followed 5367 children, found that 20% of kids (ages 6-11) and 14% of teens met researchers’ threshold for long COVID. Until now, research has been lacking because children were thought to be less susceptible to both acute COVID-19 and long COVID, experts say. But by some estimates, up to 5.8 million kids and teens have the disorder. Study author Rachel Gross, MD, an associate professor in the departments of pediatrics and population health at NYU Langone, is in line with the percentage of adults diagnosed with long COVID.” • Remember in the beginning, when the minimizers told us children didn’t even get Covid? Good times. Handy chart:

Social Norming

Another reason for denial:

my dad exposed me to covid, i got it, got longcovid, lost everything. we havent spoken since it happened, he hasnt even attempted to nor said he loves me since i got sick. he disappeared rather than admit he messed up. https://t.co/Z5zCSQSWLT

— 🎨Artsy M*rxist 🎨 (commissions waitlist open) (@ArtsyMarx1st) October 15, 2024

Rule #2 is universal in scope:

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC October 5	Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):
Variants [3] CDC October 12	Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC October 5
Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data October 10:	National [6] CDC September 21:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens October 7:	Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 5:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC September 16:	Variants[10] CDC September 16:
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28:	Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Still some hot spots, but I can’t draw circles around entire regions this week. Good news!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “everything in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.

[10] (Travelers: Variants).

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index plummeted to -11.9 in October 2024, down from 11.5 in September and surprising analysts who expected it at 3.8. This marks the worst reading since May, pointing to a renewed contraction in the New York State and at a solid pace.”

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Manufacturing: “Boeing’s crisis is getting worse. Now it’s borrowing tens of billions of dollars” [CNN]. “In a regulatory filing early Tuesday, the company announced plans to borrow $10 billion from a consortium of banks. It also separately announced plans to raise $25 billion by selling stock and debt. The $10 billion borrowing plans would be included in the $25 billion that Boeing filed to raise…. Boeing’s credit rating has plunged to the lowest investment-grade level – just above “junk bond” status – and major credit rating agencies have warned Boeing is in danger of being downgraded to junk. That would raise its cost of borrowing.”

Manufacturing: “Official: Boeing 777X delivery delayed until at least 2026” [Mile Lion]. “Up till recently, Boeing was still making optimistic noises about a late 2025 debut for the aircraft, with Emirates CEO Tim Clark stating at the 2023 Dubai Airshow that he hoped to get his first B777-9 by October 2025. But that was always going to be a tall order, and now we have official confirmation of what’s perhaps the worst-kept secret in aviation: the Boeing 777X is officially delayed till at least 2026. Keep in mind, it’s not just the work stoppage that’s the problem. The B777X has had a torrid time with its certification, with the FAA chiding the airline at one point that its proposed certification schedule was ‘outdated and no longer reflect the programme activities.’ While the all-important Type Inspection Authorisation (TIA) was granted in July 2024, enabling the company to begin the certification process, it’s not all been smooth sailing. Just a couple of months ago, the test fleet was grounded after a routine post-flight inspection revealed the failure of a thrust link that mounts the engine to the aircraft.” • Yikes.

Manufacturing: “Emirates’ Clark raises ‘looming’ specter of Boeing bankruptcy protection” [The Air Current]. “In an email to The Air Current following the announced Oct. 11 delay to the certification of Boeing’s 777-9 flagship jetliner, [Emirates president Sir Tim Clark, Boeing’s largest twin-aisle jet customer,] said, ‘Unless the company is able to raise funds through a Rights Issue, I see an imminent investment downgrade with Chapter 11 looming on the horizon.'” • Or nationalization.

Manufacturing: “Boeing Is Flexing the Financial Muscle It Has Left” [Bloomberg]. The deck: “Investors are betting that a backlog of almost 5,500 aircraft will eventually unlock a mountain of cash.” More: “Well, the company has about 5,500 aircraft that it has already sold and only needs to assemble and deliver. Investors see a mountain of cash locked up in that backlog. All the company has to do is settle a nasty strike of 33,000 machinists, revamp its work culture to put quality above all, stabilize its supply chain, finish work on the new 777X aircraft and crank out planes. In fewer words, Boeing needs to execute. This is a daunting task, and most investors believe the company has finally chosen the right person to pull off this historic turnaround after Kelly Ortberg was hired as chief executive officer in August. The thermometer for investor sentiment around Boeing’s ability to right the ship will be reflected in the price of the new shares, which could raise $10 billion or more to help shore up its finances.” • So I guess that’s why Ortberg is busting the machinist’s chops? For “investor sentiment”?

Manufacturing: “Boeing layoff plan suggests deep white-collar job cuts” [Seattle Times]. “The exclusion for now of 33,000 Machinists from the planned cuts means that Boeing can reach the 10% target stated in the slides for the Commercial Airplanes unit only through deep cuts among the white-collar staff, including engineers and nonunion salaried employees…. Perhaps the thinking is that laying off Machinists now might inflame passions and make the strike more difficult to settle. If that’s so, blue-collar layoffs could come later. Still, the need for the layoffs has little to do with the Machinists’ strike. It’s a restructuring by new CEO Kelly Ortberg designed to address the broader and deeper problems Boeing faces….The only way forward for Boeing is to start building planes again and to ramp up production back to the rates planned before the January blowout. To achieve those rates, it had been hiring machinists at a rapid clip. Whenever the strike ends, it will need most of those machinists ready to swing into action.”

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 74 Greed (previous close: 76 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 70 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 15 at 1:03:44 PM ET.

TheCurrent Cinema

The production process for silent films:

On this day in 1893, silent superstar Lillian Gish was born in Springfield, Ohio. In 1988, I wrote to her asking if silent films had actual dialogue written out in the scripts or if there was just a general description of what was being said. This was her remarkable reply. pic.twitter.com/Tzv8EgnZhz

— Steve Stoliar (@StoliarSteve) October 14, 2024

Photo Book

Via alert reader Wukchumi:

“Time is what you make of it.” I wish!

Class Warfare

Slaves (implicit):

yeah the clear goal of this technology is to be able to outsource in-person service jobs to hyper-exploited workers in the global south, not liberate human labor from service work. https://t.co/AvXwuqtVlH

— Cassie Pritchard (@hecubian_devil) October 13, 2024

Of course, the goal is never to “liberate human labor.” Who would be silly enough to imagine that?

Slaves (explicit). ANC = African National Congress:

Imagine having a housekeeper that doesn't vote ANC, doesn't have 55 uncle's funerals to attend every year, won't steal your food, and you only have to pay for it once?

Sign me up pic.twitter.com/IW8XrREn5Q

— Keanu (@Keanubtc) October 11, 2024

“You only have to pay for it once.” Indeed. Now if we can just get them to reproduce…

News of the Wired
I am not feeling wired today.

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

TH writes: “Here in Westminster, California, a rose society lives at the Civic center, so, due to their many gardens of roses, I have an abundant supply of rose photos. Sorry if the border is a bit much. Feel free to crop.”

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