2:00PM Water Cooler 10/16/2024

Bird Song of the Day

Blue Mockingbird, Melanotis caerulesces, Presa Los Zompanties, Etla, Oaxaca, Mexico.

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In Case You Might Miss…

1. Michelle stays home.
2. Trump to work the grill at McDonald’s in Philly.
3. Trump’s “fascism”.
4. Boeing borrows $10 billion, fights off junk status for now, faces break-up.

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Look for the Helpers

“Power-company workers get standing ovation during Lightning’s hurricane-delayed home opener” [Orlando Sentinel]. “There was a standing ovation late in the second period and it wasn’t for any of the Tampa Bay players. It was for a group of power-company workers from Vancouver who are assisting in recovery efforts. ‘How about the ovation that the Vancouver linemen got when they showed them on the big screen?’ Cooper asked. ‘I’m normally not looking up there a ton but that was a pretty moving moment for me. And it just shows you there’s a lot of good out there. When people come out and help each other it does make you feel good.'” • I’m violating my own guidelines a little bit here, but what the powerline workers are doing is called “mutual assistance,” and I think that’s how the workers see it (sure, overtime no doubt, structured by giant utilities to minimize slack. Nevertheless).

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My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Less than thirty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error and go with the narrative, another good week for Trump, especially in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, in the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

“The Known Unknowns of Election 2024” [Wall Street Journal]. “Even if there aren’t any more October surprises, many factors could influence the outcome. These include turnout, a possible undercount of Trump supporters, the effect of the Trump campaign’s advertising blitz against Ms. Harris on the transgender issue, and the movements of last-minute swing voters. Any of these known unknowns could prove decisive—a reminder that voters, not pundits, decide elections.” • Hmm.

“Suddenly, the Electoral College Is Posing a Problem for Trump” [Slate]. “Trump is, ironically, crashing into the same roadblock that has stymied Democrats for decades now: The Electoral College overvalues white votes at the expense of racial minorities, giving white voters considerably more influence over the presidential race…. A few examples drawn from current demographic data: Latinos make up about 40 percent of California’s population, and Trump appears to be making inroads with them there. But there is no chance that this trend will flip the heavily Democratic state toward Trump, so eroding Harris’ edge with California Latinos will not help him reach the White House. Latinos also make up about 40 percent of Texas’ population, yet Trump is essentially certain to carry the Lone Star State already, so additional votes from Texas Latinos won’t matter to him. Florida is an increasingly diverse state, and Trump may win an eye-popping number of nonwhite votes there. But he is overwhelmingly likely to win it no matter what, so this feat would not clinch him a second term. The same dynamic applies to smaller states. Black voters make up about 36 percent of Mississippi’s population, for instance, but winning over some of these voters will not boost Trump’s overall chance of victory because he already has Mississippi locked down. Conversely, Asian Americans make up 10 percent of New Jersey and Washington state, but Harris has both in the bag. So it will be irrelevant to Trump if these Asian American voters defect to him. There are, of course, exceptions to this dynamic: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina all have large numbers of nonwhite voters, and all are swing states. But Harris’ clearest path to victory remains a sweep of the famed tipping-point states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—which historically vote the same way. If she carries this so-called blue wall, along with the single electoral vote of Omaha, Nebraska, she’ll win the whole election. Pennsylvania in particular has emerged as the probable tipping-point state. That’s why Harris and Tim Walz, her vice presidential nominee, are spending the final weeks with a campaign blitz in the Rust Belt. Current polling suggests that winning these states is pretty much mandatory. Any victories in the more diverse Sun Belt will probably be a bonus.” • Entirely anecdotal, but an associate of mine tells me Black women he knows in California absolutely hate Kamala. And white women they know in Milwaukee (Milwaukee proper, not the burbs) absolutely love her (because of her performativity on abortion). One thing: Republicans, like Winston Wolfe, “solve problems” (though you may agree neither with the problem statement nor the solution). Like firing their elites (who then went and turned themselves into Democrats). Or recomposing the Supreme Court to overturn Roe. If fixing the electoral college is to their advantage, they will do it.

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Kamala (D): “Despite her call to ‘do something’ for Harris, Michelle Obama has yet to hit the campaign trail” [NBC]. “With just 20 days until the election, Michelle Obama has worked behind the scenes to boost turnout in key swing states, but she has yet to schedule an official appearance for Harris since the Democratic National Convention. Two people familiar with the matter said she has expressed fresh concerns about security following two assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump…. Her low profile stands out after her rousing speech in August at the Democratic National Convention, when she implored members of her party not to get complacent about the November election and repeatedly urged voters to instead ‘do something!'” • So I guess Michelle doesn’t believe Trump is a fascist?

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Kamala (D): “Harris peppered with questions by Charlamagne tha God’s audience” [The Hill]. “Throughout the interview, Harris shared her position on topics such as reparations — which she said she supports studying — building up Black homeownership and the opportunity to grow generational wealth.” “Study”? Oh. More; “Harris released an “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men” on Monday, but one caller asked her why she didn’t do so sooner and why support for Black men is only sought out during election cycles. ‘I’ve been in this race about 70 days. You can look at all my work before those 70 days to know that this, what I’m talking about right now, is not new and is not for the sake of winning this election,’ Harris responded. ‘This is about a long-standing commitment, including the work that I’ve done as vice president and before, when I was senator.’ Harris’s time as a senator came up at another point in the interview when a caller from Nevada asked what she plans to do to address police brutality and its disproportionate impact on Black Americans. The vice president quickly pointed to her work on the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) during her time in the upper chamber.” • So a bill that never passed is the best Harris can do? “Fighting for,” I suppose….

Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris’ greatest weakness is her inauthentic self — and black Americans can see right through it” [New York Post]. “Charlamagne Tha God of ‘The Breakfast Club’ invited Vice President Harris for an audio-only town hall in Detroit featuring prerecorded questions from the audience. From the very first question, her believability came under scrutiny by Charlamagne. ‘Folks say you come off as very scripted and like to stick to your talking points,’ he said — and she promptly interrupted him by saying, ‘Some people would call that disciplined.’ Charlamagne continued, ‘What do you say to the people that say you stay on the talking points?’ ‘I would say you’re welcome!’ Harris immediately responded.” Translation: Voters are stupid. They just don’t get it.. More: What summed up this interview was how she addressed a concern of a caller who questioned the motives behind sending money abroad in abundance when there are many pressing issues that remain here: ‘We can do it all!’ she claimed, unconvincingly.” • Editorializing. But I doubt Kamala will #MintTheCoin (and it’s clear to me how much capability we really have to do anything more than write apps and produce boutique weaponry, and that’s before we get to what’s happened to the workforce from Covid. Oh, and deliver stuff from China in boxes.

Kamala (D): “Opinion: Does Harris’ Fox interview mean she’s a conservative? Nope. She’s just scared” [USA Today]. “[T]his week, [Kamala’s] shaking things up and doing her first ever sit-down interview with Fox News. The interview will take place Wednesday with Fox News anchor Bret Baier. Baier has said that he won’t treat Harris with kid gloves during their conversation, and that any editing of the interview will only be for ‘timing’ and that ‘no topic is off the table.’ Sounds promising. Kudos to Harris for agreeing to appear on a network shunned by most of her progressive base – and one that may ask her tough questions.” • Going after Republican votes….

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Trump (R): “Donald Trump will ‘work the fry cooker’ at McDonald’s in the Philly area this weekend” [Philadelphia Inquirer]. “The former president will make the stop at a McDonald’s in the Philadelphia area, the source said, but the exact location is still unclear…. Trump has continuously claimed that Harris never worked at the fast-food chain, without evidence. He told a campaign crowd in Indiana, Pennsylvania last month that he wanted to work as a fry cook to ‘see how it is.'” • Allow me to hoist once more this insightful comment from alert reader Brian Beijer on August 29:

Now, to [Kamala’s] “I did fries. And then I did the cashier”. Not one of those workers respected the fries and cashier person. There was a begrudging respect for the drive thru cashier because they had to put up with so much grief (this word is out of respect for Yves). But, no one was really respected until they competently handled the grill during a rush hour. You earned real props after handling a bus or unexpected football team visit. I can totally understand why Kamala didn’t put McDonald’s on her resumè`, but I don’t understand why she’s reluctant to mention her experience there…unless she was just a cashier/fry person. Then, she never really got the experience of what working at McDonald’s really offered.

Trump doesn’t even have to be good. All he has to do is actually feel the heat of the grill and show respect for workers by entering their world (and not with performative empathy and bullet points on the Twitter).

Trump (R): “ABC ‘whistleblower’ hoaxster returns with sloppy attempt to frame Tim Walz” [Daily Dot]. A saga you may have followed here. “The account previously blew up for its claims it had proof an ABC whistleblower provided Vice President Kamala Harris questions before the presidential debate. [T]he proof never materialized.” • The Daily Dot claims that Trump signal boosted Black Insurrectionist’s claim, but gives no link or embedded Tweet. I can’t find it. Readers?

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Trump (R): “Donald Trump’s debts and financial ties are a threat to national security” [Boston Globe]. “Heavy personal debts, unsavory associates, murky foreign financial ties — any of them could be a reason a security clearance is denied. The rules are premised on the common-sense idea that those individuals are more vulnerable to blackmail or bribery, or simply lack moral character. The president, like all constitutional officeholders, is exempt from this requirement. The president’s security clearance, as it were, is granted by the [stupid, untrustworthy, deplorable] electorate. Voters, though, have every reason to weigh in the voting booth the same kind of considerations that clearance-vetters in the government do when they’re assessing potential federal workers: Can this candidate be trusted in a sensitive national security job? The answer in the case of former president Donald Trump is clearly no. If Trump were required to pass even the lowest level of federal security clearance, he couldn’t.” • That’s terrible. Let’s fix it! Clearly, the intelligence community should vet any President, maybe even all candidates.

Trump (R): “Trump accused of ‘mimicking’ infamous Nazi rally with Madison Square Garden event” [Independent]. “Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville claimed that Donald Trump’s forthcoming rally at Madison Square Garden is mimicking a pro-Adolf Hitler Nazi event held at the venue more than 80 years ago.” • Oh ffs. See, e.g., “Address at Madison Square Garden, New York City,” Franklin Delano Roosevelt. We do’n: “For twelve years this Nation was afflicted with hear-nothing, see-nothing, do-nothing Government. The Nation looked to Government but the Government looked away. Nine mocking years with the golden calf and three long years of the scourge! Nine crazy years at the ticker and three long years in the breadlines! Nine mad years of mirage and three long years of despair! Powerful influences strive today to restore that kind of government with its doctrine that that Government is best which is most indifferent.” That’s the stuff to give the troops, but we sure don’t hear it from today’s “fighting for” Democrats! Anyhow, I’m seeing this meme — Madison Square Garden = Hitler — all over the place. It’s so stupid. These people have lost their minds (just as badlly as that Black Insurrectionist dude, just on different tropes). Walter Kirn comments:

How cunning it was of the wily Trump to forego becoming a fascist dictator in his first term and wait until he maybe won a second term

Most power-mad monsters don't have that kind of patience!

— Walter Kirn (@walterkirn) October 14, 2024

Trump (R): “Former President Trump calls the ‘enemy from within’ more dangerous than any foreign entity” [FOX]. I wish I could find the transcript on tnis, but I can’t. Here are the quotes from Sunday Morning Futures FOX pulled out:

Former President Trump explained how he would guard against bureaucrats undermining him as the potential next commander-in-chief if elected back to the White House.

“We have two enemies: We have the outside enemy, and then we have the enemy from within. And the enemy from within, in my opinion, is more dangerous than China, Russia and all these countries,” Trump said in an exclusive interview on “Sunday Morning Futures.”

“But the thing that’s tougher to handle are these lunatics that we have inside, like Adam Schiff — Adam ‘Shifty’ Schiff,” Trump added.

“I call him the enemy from within,” he continued. “When you look at the danger he put our country in potentially with Russia — with a phony, made-up deal that he made up with Hillary and some bad people.””That started off as an excuse for why [Hillary Clinton] lost an election that a lot of people thought she should have won, because the polls indicated she might win,” Trump noted.

“And then she got beaten everywhere, virtually. When you look at that, and then they said, ‘Ah, it was Russia,’ they used it as an excuse, and then the fake news picked it up.”

So where’s the lie? Here is alternative coverage–

Trump (R): “Trump Suggesting He’d Use Military Against ‘Enemy From Within’ Sparks Alarm” [Newsweek]. Again, I have no transcript:

On Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, Bartiromo asked Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, “What are you expecting? Joe Biden said he doesn’t think it’s going to be a peaceful Election Day.”

During a White House press briefing, Biden said last week that he is confident that the upcoming election will be “free and fair,” but said he was concerned about the transfer of power being peaceful on account of Trump’s words and actions following his loss in 2020.

Trump responded, “I think the bigger problem is the enemy from within…We have some very bad people, some sick people, radical left lunatics. And it should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard, or if really necessary, by the military.”

At another point during the interview, he said, “We have two enemies. We have the outside enemy. And, and then we have the enemy from within. And the enemy from within, in my opinion, is more dangerous than China, Russia, and all these countries.”

Lambert here: So FOX doesn’t quote the part about “handling” “radical left lunatics” with the National Guard (one of the “enemies within”) and Newsweek doesn’t quote the material on RusssiaGate (the second of the “enemies” within). Some comments: I like “enemies within” a lot less than “deplorables,” which I didn’t like at all, even though both are dehumanizing; “enemies within” has a bad history. Further, the media reaction to Trump’s remarks shows a pervasive habit of mind or trope by Democrats: Things have have happened are put on the same set of scales as things that might happen. RussiaGate happened; an election day round-up of bad actors might happen. Of course, the irony is that most of the “radical left lunatics” are already in DHS Fusion Center databases developed under Democrats, and all their online uttterances are carefully monitored by the Censorship Industrial Complex. As I keep saying, the fascist smorgasboard is a rich repast from which both parties partake freely, indeed greedily.

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“Playbook: How litigation is defining the election” [Politico]. “The flurry of litigation is happening on all sides: For every DOJ lawsuit aimed at protecting voting access, sparking fury on the right, there are on many more being filed by conservatives looking to restrict access to voting and otherwise shape election procedures, said Wendy Weiser of the Brennan Center for Justice. ‘We saw a little bit of it in 2020, but it has exploded,’ she told us last night. ‘They’re using the courts to spread conspiracy theories, to put some veneer of legal belief to stoke conspiracy theories.’ Consider what happened after the 2020 election: When Trump’s campaign litigated its claims of a stolen election, some cases were thrown out by judges who said they should have gone to court earlier. They’re not making the same mistake this time. The Harris campaign is already involved in dozens of lawsuits — one official we spoke with last night boasted about winning nine out of ten cases that have already been decided — while assembling what they are calling the ‘biggest voter protection operation in presidential campaign history.'” • Expect continued volatility, even after election day. Interesting if true:

BREAKING: Biden's former White House Counsel DANA REMUS –who facilitated the FBI/DOJ investigation of Trump at Mar-a-Lago and then helped cover up Biden's own classified docs scandal –is now running Kamala Harris campaign's pre- and post-election LAWFARE operation against Trump

— Paul Sperry (@paulsperry_) October 15, 2024

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PA: “Salena Zito: In 2024, Everything Is Happening in Pennsylvania” [RealClearPolitics]. “The first county I’m looking at is Cambria County home of Johnstown. This is a county that three years ago was majority Democrat, now they’re at almost 50,000 more registered Republicans…. Luzerne County up by Scranton I would watch. Erie and Northampton — with high cost of living and inflation…. I would give the edge to Trump just because I think the people that are in the middle of despair, in particular in the heavily Democrat area of the city of Erie, I’m not sure they’re turning up to vote. People have not seen them, they have not heard them. And everything else outside of Erie is Republican.” Well, except for Philly and (to a lesser extent?) Pittsburgh. More: “You will see what’s called the Frontier, which is sort of the Connecticut of Erie, the upper-middle-class suburbs. They don’t, they don’t care for Trump, but that’s also part of the city.” • The Frontier… Are any readers familiar with this locution?

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Spook Country

The Censorship Insdusrial Complex is very online:

The term “misinformation” picked up popularity around 2016.

I wonder why 🧐 pic.twitter.com/83FV365Uzh

— The Rabbit Hole (@TheRabbitHole84) October 16, 2024

Democrats en Déshabillé

Well, possibly. Something to think about:

Mark Halperin has better political sources than anyone in media. He now believes Donald Trump is likely to win. If that happens, Halperin predicts the psychological collapse of the Democratic Party — “greatest mental health crisis in the history of the country.”

(1:23) The State… pic.twitter.com/YtMTq14T4u

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) October 15, 2024

Do note, however, that Trump has invaded the dreams of liberal Democrats (November 19, 2023). So there are indeed some mass psychological mechanisms at work (as in all of us).

“How Alarmed Should We Be If Trump Wins Again?” [Adam Gopnik, The New Yorker]. “But polarized nations don’t actually polarize around fixed poles. Civil confrontations invariably cross classes and castes, bringing together people from radically different social cohorts while separating seemingly natural allies. The English Revolution of the seventeenth century, like the French one of the eighteenth, did not array worn-out aristocrats against an ascendant bourgeoisie or fierce-eyed sansculottes. There were, one might say, good people on both sides. Or, rather, there were individual aristocrats, merchants, and laborers choosing different sides in these prerevolutionary moments. No civil war takes place between classes; coalitions of many kinds square off against one another.” But that’s just the warm-up before the pitch, from which I could quote nearly anything, but this will do: “Shuttling between the comic-book villain and the grimacing, red-faced, and unhinged man who may be reëlected President in a few weeks, one struggled to distinguish our culture’s most extravagant imagination of derangement from the real thing. The space is that strange, and the stakes that high.” • I don’t love Trump, I really don’t. But does Gopnik not think genocide is “unhinged”? Does Gopnick not think a proxy war with a nuclear power — a war we fomented, and are losing — is “unhinged”? If Gopnik got vaccinated — and you can be sure he did — the stuff in the syringe came from a program the “unhinged” orange man initiated. So what, exactly, is Gopnik so alarmed about that’s more alarming than genocide and nuclear war? Walter Kirn comments:

Treating the Trump candidacy as a hostile insurgency & his supporters as a cross between the Taliban, the Klan, & the Viet Cong feels to me like a conscience-clearing license for a very serious state crackdown & a permanent dilution of civil liberties

Boy do I pray I'm wrong

— Walter Kirn (@walterkirn) October 15, 2024

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Transmission: H5N1

“Is it time to freak out about bird flu?” [STAT]. “If, however, you are more familiar with the history of this form of bird flu, you might be getting anxious. You might be worried that no one has figured out how one of the infected individuals, who lives in Missouri, contracted H5N1. Or you might recall that the virus has killed half of the 900-plus people known to have been infected with it over the past 27 years. Above all, you might fret that the virus is now circulating in thousands of cows in the U.S., exposing itself to some unknowable portion of the more than 100,000 dairy farmworkers in this country — the consequences of which could be, well, disastrous. Ongoing transmission in cattle means that every day in this country, a virus that is genetically suited to infecting wild birds is being given the opportunity to morph into one that can easily infect mammals. One of these spins of the genetic roulette wheel could result in a version of H5N1 that has a skill that is very much not in our interest to have it gain — the capacity to spread from person to person like seasonal flu viruses do. So is this freak-out time? Or is the fact that this virus still hasn’t cracked the code for easy access to human respiratory systems a sign that it may not have what it takes to do so? The answer, I’m afraid, is not comforting. Science currently has no way of knowing all the changes H5N1 would need to undergo to trigger a pandemic, or whether it is capable of making that leap. (This important article lays out what has been learned so far about some of the mutations H5N1 would have to acquire.) The truth is, when it comes to this virus, we’re in scientific limbo.” • I say let’s double down, roll the dice, and risk everything! But commentary:

Variants: Covid

“SARS-CoV-2 provides an unprecedented opportunity to watch evolution occur in real time” [T. Ryan Gregory, ThreadReader.app]. “SARS-CoV-2 provides an unprecedented opportunity to watch evolution occur in real time. It also happens to be showing the pervasiveness of many misconceptions about evolution, even among scientists with limited knowledge of evolutionary biology. Here’s a list and explanations. 🧵”

Misconceptions about evolution on display with SARS-CoV-2:

1. Typological thinking.
2. Variation seen as noise rather than signal.
3. Teleology.
4. Orthogenesis.
5. Not understanding how natural selection works.
6. Ignoring Orgel’s second rule.
7. Myths about human evolution.

Worth reading in full. Perhaps evolutionary biologists in the readership will chime in.

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC October 5	Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):
Variants [3] CDC October 12	Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC October 5
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data October 15:	National [6] CDC September 21:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens October 14:	Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 5:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC September 16:	Variants[10] CDC September 16:
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28:	Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Still some hot spots, but I can’t draw circles around entire regions this week. Good news!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “everything in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.

[10] (Travelers: Variants).

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today.

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Manufacturing: “The $25B Boeing Problem” [CEO Today]. “Boeing has obtained a credit agreement valued at $10 billion with a group of prime financial institutions, which includes Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan. The Analysts from Bank of America indicate that Boeing is expected to raise between $10 billion and $15 billion in equity to preserve its investment-grade credit rating.”

Manufacturing: “Has Boeing done enough to avoid the credit rating junk yard?” [Financial Times]. “Boeing is ‘too big to fail in the eyes of the US government‘, said a second bondholder. ‘However, it’s not too big to become high-yield.'” Ha ha! No indeed. More: “Our major concern is that the longer this goes, the [more likely it is that] rating agencies will be forced to take some action.'”

Manufacturing: “Daily Memo: Boeing’s Breakup Is Not If, But How And When” [Aviation Week]. Worth reading in full, especially if you play the ponies. “To be succinct, large commercial aircraft, and especially narrowbodies, are the future of cash generation.” Which could put Boeing Defense Services on the chopping block. Except: “What about divesting BDS as a whole? Many analysts and consultants see that as unlikely. For starters, the defense and space division obviously is full of enough money-losing fixed-price contracts to make it financially radioactive. Second, it is unlikely the U.S. executive branch would allow another large defense prime to buy it, considering monopoly concerns, while lawmakers could flinch at the prospect of a private equity buyer. Nevertheless, contracts can be sunsetted or sold off individually, and facilities shut down to achieve the same effect.” And: “Regardless of the path, Boeing’s breakup from its current conglomerate state is a safe bet. … [T]he end result could be Boeing more in name only rather than the business model many people think of now.

Manufacturing: “Emirates orders more Boeing 777F freighters, sources say” [Reuters]. ” Dubai’s Emirates, one of the world’s largest cargo carriers, is expanding its fleet of Boeing 777F freighters as it plans for a sharp increase in cargo trade, industry sources said. The order for more of the current-generation freighters emerged amid tensions between Emirates and Boeing over separate delays, but pre-dated Boeing’s announcement on Friday that its future 777X jetliner series would slip by another year to 2026…. Analysts note that delays in passenger planes and ongoing demand for dedicated freighter planes are not disconnected. Cirium Ascend head of global consultancy Rob Morris said demand for freighters was being supported by a shortage of passengers planes from Boeing and Airbus, since a large proportion of air freight travels in bellies of passenger jets. Average global cargo yields or unit revenues grew 12% in August, the highest annual increase in over two years, the International Air Transport Association said last week.” • Easier to produce, less risk of one of ’em falls out of the sky. And a reach-around for Boeing on cash flow?

Manufacturing: “After Boeing, Airbus to slash 2,500 jobs amid ongoing financial losses” [Business Standard]. “The Netherlands-headquartered Airbus is planning to cut up to 2,500 jobs within its defence and space division. This significant move aims to streamline the European aerospace giant’s operations as it grapples with ongoing financial difficulties. According to reports, these job cuts, which represent around 7 per cent of the division’s workforce, are expected to be implemented by mid-2026. While Airbus has not provided an official statement, the information comes amidst continued struggles in its defence and space sectors. Airbus has been facing substantial losses, particularly within its space systems division, where projects like OneSat have suffered from delays and increasing costs. In response, the company launched a wider efficiency review, code-named ATOM, aimed at addressing operational challenges and identifying cost-saving measures, according to AFP.”

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 74 Greed (previous close: 76 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 70 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 15 at 1:03:44 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

Personal risk assessment:

Could also be titled: “Portrait of a Young Person Entering the Job Market.” I truly dislike the cultural moment that valorizes nutty behavior like this (I can just see “founders” putting stills from it on t-shirts for their employees). Also, I wonder if there was ever snow on that mountain. It looks like the surface of Mars (Hi Elon [waves]).

Gallery

Sending this out to Kelly Ortberg:

'The Scrapheap.' (1944) In 1940, Stanley Spencer was commissioned by the War Artist’s Advisory Committee to illustrate the valuable contribution made by the British shipbuilding industry and its workers to the war effort. He was sent by the Ministry of Information to the Kingston… pic.twitter.com/CYFYJS2mcn

— Richard Morris (@ahistoryinart) October 16, 2024

Class Warfare

“The Call Is Out for Mass, Simultaneous Strikes in 4 Years” [WorkDay Magazine]. “At its annual convention in July, the American Federation of Teachers, which represents 1.8 million members, passed a resolution titled, ‘Supporting The UAW’s Call To Align Contract Expirations For May 1.’ …. This union is not alone. The American Postal Workers Union also passed a supportive resolution at its national convention in July. And Brandon Mancilla, the elected UAW Region 9A director, told me that UAW has also ‘been having conversations with different healthcare unions’ that are interested in joining. The union United Electrical Workers is also having ‘active conversations’ about the call for contract alignment, the union’s general president, Carl Rosen, told me. Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA who called for a general strike to end the government shutdown in 2019, told me over text message, ‘The call for aligning contract expirations and planning for a general strike is powerful in and of itself. The consciousness of the power of solidarity that grows from cross-sector organizing begins to change social order before feet hit the streets.’ Not every effort to get formal support, though, has been successful. The National Education Association voted down a new business item supporting the alignment on the first day of its representative assembly, before the National Education Association Staff Organization went on strike.” • How about the Longshoremen? Boeing’s machinists?

News of the Wired

“How ham radio endures – and remains a disaster lifeline – in the iPhone era|” [ZDnet]. “In the aftermath of a catastrophe, ham radio operators play a vital role in relaying messages between disaster victims and their concerned friends and family members. These skilled volunteers use their equipment to establish communication networks, often when cell towers are down and internet access is unavailable…. In a disaster, ham radio operators create self-organized networks to relay messages in and out of affected areas. …. ” • Fun for the whole family! Get yourselves a license (along with your passport…).

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From MR:

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

MR writes: “Neither antidote nor plantidote, but wow! From last night, looking north from south shore of lake ontario outside Rochester, NY.” For this time only, as a conceptual dodge that will allow me to post this photo, I will deem th plant-derived construct at lower right a plant. And weren’t these Northern Lights pretty big and pretty far South? What’s up with that? Disturbance in the force?

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