2:00PM Water Cooler 10/17/2024

Bird Song of the Day

Patient readers, I’m afraid brunch got a little out of hand. More soon! –lambert

Blue-and-white Mockingbird, Laguna del Bosque, Guatemala. “Full singing bout, 12 minutes long! First phrase not too clear, good quality after that. Bird was perched at midlevel in brush under tall cypress trees, close to footpath.”

Also: Please allow me to draw your attention to my post on the Macualey Library and birders, who together make this feature possible.

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Democrat angst.
  2. Musk PA events for Trump could break the law.
  3. Boeing strike: Wall Street, WSJ, maybe DOD, rush to Boeing’s assistance.
  4. Reader query: AI poisoner sought for photographs.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

2024

Less than three weeks to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error and go with the narrative, another good week for Trump, especially in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, in the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.

* * *

Kamala (D): “This Race Is Kamala Harris’s to Lose. Here’s Why.” [Vanity Fair]. “In these waning stages of the late Trump era, everything and nothing is a surprise. We’ve become immune. I mean, when you have the nominee of a major political party mentally unplugging during a town hall, stopping answering questions, and swaying along to his own Spotify playlist for 39 interminable minutes—and no one seems to blink—we’re out of surprises.” The lead — you’d better sit down — starts with a lie. See the ABC coverage of the event I linked to a couple days ago (“Trump’s Pennsylvania town hall, interrupted by medical emergencies in crowd, turned into an impromptu concert.” People danced and sang, they didn’t leave. More: “But the reality is that if nothing or everything happens between now and November 5, it’s unlikely to change the outcome. This sucker is baked…. I’m going to make a bold prediction here because I just don’t give a shit if I’m wrong, even if this lives on the internet forever. Kamala Harris is going to win. Maybe easily.” More: “Harris looks strong and confident. She’s demanding another debate. She’s marching into the lion’s den of Fox News and perhaps Joe Rogan’s podcast. She’s running clips of Dictatorial Donald at her rallies—to cheers and jeers. On the campaign trail, she’s enlisting the help of a raft of ready-for-prime-time players, including Barack Obama, other top Democrats, and a number of anti-Trump Republicans.” If you say so. More: “Finally, there is the gender gap. Yes, Trump has an advantage with men. But I believe that in the end, the Harris gender gap with women will shatter all previous records and be determinative. I just feel, in my bones—from talks with voters of all stripes, Gen Z to the senior set—that enough women have sufficient outrage from the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, and PTSD from 2016, that they are going to crawl over broken glass to break the glass ceiling.” • Thank heavens the Democrats never codified Roe when they had the chance!

Kamala (D): “Recipe for a Harris Win: More Obama, Less Cheney” [John Nichols, The Nation]. “It’s Obama who has the potential to persuade Wisconsin voters, via targeted media ads and, ideally, a high-profile appearance in the state with this year’s nominee. Obama gets Wisconsin. He has always maintained a strategic sense about how to campaign in the state, where he won the 2008 Democratic presidential primary over Hillary Clinton by a commanding 58 to 40 margin. Obama, who as a young man worked with a Chicago-based law firm that maintained an office in Madison, knows where to campaign in the Badger state.” • The firm where Obama did his lawyering had an office in Madison? That’s our argument? Seriously, 2024 – 2008 = 16. 2024 – 2012 = 12. Twelve years is a long time in politics. And isn’t Kamala’s slogan “We’re not going back?”

Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris and the problem with ceding the argument” [Vox]. “In an appearance on Special Report With Bret Baier [Kamala] got tough questions about immigration policy and the southern border. It was in answering those questions that Harris demonstrated how much the Democratic Party is moving right — toward the ideological center on immigration — under the banner of her candidacy. She chose not to defend the virtue of immigration, or of immigrants themselves, and continued to cede the playing field to the right…. This all continues a trend for Harris. Just last week, at a town hall hosted by the Spanish-language media network Univision, Harris was twice presented with opportunities to invoke and condemn Trump’s mass deportation plans when speaking to attendees who had family who were deported or unable to get health care because they lacked legal status. She passed on that chance….”

Kamala (D): First buffalo plaid color revolution:

Symbol manipulators gotta symbol manipulate! (I’m semi-serious about that “color revolution” quip. For the spooks who increasingly infest the Democrat Party, “our democracy” = “color revolution.” Same cause, same people, same methods.)

* * *

Angst:

Oh my:

“Welcome to the uncanny valley of the 2024 election” [MSNBC]. “In an election this close, though, there are so many different variables to try to solve for that it can feel impossible to find a formula that denies Trump an electoral victory.The resulting calculus sees Harris’ campaign desperately trying to put together a coalition that can remain stable for the next 21 days. How do you both win back Black men who are open to Trump’s ham-fisted appeals while also being relatable to the Never Trump Republicans you’re wooing? How do you persuade progressives to turn out despite their hesitance over American support for Israel’s war in Gaza while also focusing on slowing inflation and driving down consumer prices?” I know! “Orange man bad!” More: “I’ll let you in on a professional secret here: I don’t have an answer to those questions. Even the people doing the work of trying to win this election don’t know for sure. These next three weeks are set to be a period of distinct discomfort as we stare into the unknown. There is no quick fix that will calm the vibes and reassure nervous Democrats.”

“Trying to dance under the cloud of election anxiety” [Amanda Marcotte, Salon]. “My partner and I were still buzzing with adrenaline from seeing pop star Dua Lipa close out Saturday night at the Austin City Limits music festival when we were subject to a drunk woman’s 10-minute rant about how she hates her Democratic friend. Lipa’s tour and album were both titled “Radical Optimism,” and we were emersed in her curated world for over an hour, dancing and singing with an eclectic crowd of all races and sexual identities. We enjoyed our freedom as if nearly half the country isn’t poised to snatch it all away.” “Immersed,” I think. More: “He were soon hit with a reality check. As we walked away from the show, we kept pace with a fellow concertgoer as she loudly denounced a friend for voting for Vice President Kamala Harris. ‘All she talks about is abortion,’ the woman, who looked in her late 20s or early 30s, slurred at her two friends. ‘But she won’t listen about the economy. She said she doesn’t care about the economy!’ I hadn’t attended the Austin City Limits Festival in over 15 years, which made it a useful benchmark for how much cultural progress has occurred since the early years of Barack Obama’s presidency. I was skeptical that this woman felt much financial distress in President Joe Biden’s economy, considering she got so loaded at a show where beer was $15 a pop.” • Maybe $15 beers are part of “the economy.” Just a thought.

* * *

“Massive influx of shadowy get-out-the-vote spending floods swing states” [WaPo]. “None of these get-out-the-vote efforts are the work of the presidential campaigns or political parties. They belong instead to a vast, shadow machinery built by partisans often under nonpartisan banners to provide the final nudge that delivers the White House by mobilizing unlikely voters in about seven states. Funded largely without public disclosure, through local outfits and national networks, most of the operations have been lying in wait for years in preparation for this moment…. There is no centralized way to know how much money they will spend or just how many people they will reach. Many of the national groups refuse to disclose their budgets, while hundreds of local groups fly entirely under the national radar, funded through tax classifications that will not report their income until next year and will never disclose their donors…. But people involved expect independent field and mobilization machines to easily be measured in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Given the razor thin margins dividing Trump and Harris in the target states, they could easily prove decisive in one or more states.” • One reason that nobody knows anything… is that nobody knows anything.

GA: “‘Now I like him’: Some Black voters in Georgia see Trump as a real option” [Politico]. “‘This race is between college educated and non-college educated. And in the Black community, this race is between working-class and what I call the bourgeois college-educated class,’ said Shelley Wynter, a Black conservative radio host in Atlanta. ‘If you went to college, an HBCU, were part of the Divine Nine, you’re all in for Kamala Harris.’ But for those in the Black community who aren’t steeped in those kinds of legacy institutions, Wynter continued, there’s some degree of openness toward Trump this time around.” • At this point, we recall people cheering Trump’s motorcade as he drove to turn himself in at Fulton County Jail. I saw the videos, and I don’t think there were a lot of AKAs out there.

PA: “‘Pennsylvania is such a mess’: Inside Team Harris’ unusual levels of finger-pointing” [Politico]. “Top Democrats in Pennsylvania are worried Vice President Kamala Harris’ operation is being poorly run in the nation’s biggest battleground state. They say some Harris aides lack relationships with key party figures, particularly in Philadelphia and its suburbs. They complain they have been left out of events and surrogates haven’t been deployed effectively. And they’ve urged Harris staff in private meetings to do more to turn out voters of color. Some are even pointing fingers at Harris’ Pennsylvania campaign manager, Nikki Lu, who they say lacks deep knowledge of Philadelphia, where the vice president must drive up voter turnout in order to win. ‘I have concerns about Nikki Lu,’ said Ryan Boyer, who, as the first Black head of the city’s influential building trades council, is one of the most powerful labor leaders in the state. ‘I don’t think she understands Philadelphia.'” Whoa. Firing the blame cannons before the election? More: “Harris’ path to victory depends on her ability to turn out the heavily Democratic voters in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and their surrounding suburbs, a coalition that relies on a strong performance with voters of color. If the campaign can’t get them to the polls, the state — and the presidential race — could be lost.”

PA: “Why Elon Musk’s events in Pennsylvania likely violate federal law” [Popular Information]. “This week, we learned that Elon Musk has donated tens of millions of dollars to help former President Donald Trump return to the White House. But he’s not stopping there. Yesterday, Musk announced that he is holding ‘a series of talks throughout Pennsylvania’ over the next few days. There is just one problem: Musk’s events are likely illegal. Musk, of course, has the right to hold an event explaining why he supports Trump. But these events, hosted by America PAC, a Super PAC founded by Musk, are not open to everyone. To attend, people must sign Musk’s petition supporting free speech and the right to bear arms and have already voted in Pennsylvania…. The problem is not the petition, but the requirement to vote to attend Musk’s event. Federal law prohibits making or offering to make ‘an expenditure to any person, either to vote or withhold his vote, or to vote for or against any candidate.’ Violators can be fined or face up to one year in prison…. In this case, Musk is offering something valuable — an invite to hear him speak — in exchange for voting. ‘Just like one cannot give out free ice cream or car washes or concert tickets,’ Hansen writes, ‘one cannot give out free admission to hear a speech by a tech entrepreneur.'” • Early voting ends in Pennsylvania on October 29.

Our Famously Free Press

Pack animals:

Democrats en Déshabillé

“The Democrats’ pro-union strategy has been a bust” [Vox]. “But the political return on Democrats’ investment in organized labor has been disappointing…. According to a report from the Center for American Progress, between 2012 and 2016, the Democratic presidential nominee’s share of union voters fell from 66 to 53 percent. Four years ago, Biden erased roughly half of that gap, claiming 60 percent of the union vote. But contemporary polling indicates that Democrats have lost ground with unionized voters since then. In fact, according to an aggregation from CNN’s Harry Enten, Kamala Harris is on track to perform even worse with union households than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.” Let me guess why: The working class is stupid. More: “But there is reason to think that unions’ capacity to liberalize the views of non-college-educated voters has declined in the Trump era. According to the Democratic data scientist David Shor, his party’s “union premium” — the degree to which Democrats perform better with union voters, when controlling for all other demographic variables — dropped nearly to zero in 2020. Democrats still did better with unionized workers than nonunionized ones that year. Extrapolating from Shor’s math, this was almost entirely attributable to the demographic traits of America’s unionized population, which is more highly educated and less Southern than the American electorate.” • Yep.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Heat Map of January 6th Defendants Across the United States” [Just Security]. “The graphic below is a “Heat Map” of the United States displaying the hometown origins of all the defendants charged for federal crimes allegedly committed in connection with the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol (identified by general location and not by name). The map reflects the work of the largest criminal investigation in U.S. history.” • Impressive work by the organs of state security;

For grins, PA:

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Elite Maleficence

“Seasonal” as in “every season”:

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC October 5 Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC October 12 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC October 5

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data October 15: National [6] CDC September 21:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens October 14: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 5:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC September 16: Variants[10] CDC September 16:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Still some hot spots, but I can’t draw circles around entire regions this week. Good news!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “everything in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.

[10] (Travelers: Variants).

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “US unemployment claims dropped by 19,000 in the week ending October 12, marking the largest decrease in three months after hitting a 14-month high the previous week. The total number of claims fell to 241,000, coming in well below market expectations of 260,000. This drop comes after a surge in claims the previous week, largely due to disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Despite this decline, claims remain well above the averages seen earlier this year, reflecting a softening in the US labor market since its post-pandemic peak.”

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Production MoM” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial production in the US fell 0.3 percent from a month earlier in September 2024, more than market expectations of a 0.2 percent decrease and after a downwardly revised 0.3 percent rise in August.”

Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US soared to 10.3 in October 2024, a significant jump from September’s 1.7 and surpassing the expected 3. Current general activity, new orders, and shipments all experienced growth, with new orders and shipments returning to positive levels. However, the employment index decreased, indicating stable employment conditions.”

Retail: “U.S. Retail Sales” [Trading Economics]. “Retail sales in the US increased 0.4% month-over-month in September 2024, well above a 0.1% gain in August and beating market expectations of a 0.3% rise. Sales at miscellaneous store retailers recorded the biggest increase (4%), followed by clothing (1.5%), health and personal care stores (1.1%) and food and beverages stores (1%).”

* * *

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s big borrowing might be backing it into a corner’ [Quartz]. “Boeing’s plan to outlast its strike is taking shape, with Reuters reporting on plans to raise $15 billion through stock and convertible bond sales…. Structuring its new borrowings will be a very delicate maneuver for Boeing, which may face credit scrutiny due to the uncertainty of its labor situation. Any further stress on its balance sheet might push the company to a breaking point. Assessing the initial announcement of the new cash injection plans, the Fitch ratings agency was very cautiously optimistic. ‘Management’s willingness and ability to access non-debt capital sources over the coming months will help alleviate downgrade risks,’ it said.”

Manufacturing: “The Machinists Take Boeing Hostage” [Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal]. “While the strike doesn’t have the same potential to shut down the U.S. economy as the longshoremen stoppage, it could have larger consequences for national security. The strike is delaying production of military jets, and the layoffs could reduce research and development on defense and space.

The union may feel it has the whip hand because politicians aren’t likely to let Boeing fail. But the company could still emerge from a strike much weaker. Management errors and unrealistic union demands are damaging a once great American company, and it is hurting workers as much as shareholders.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Needs Some Help to Stem Its Cash Burn and Losses” [Bloomberg]. “[T]he more immediate need is to end the strike and return to producing high-quality aircraft, and Boeing needs a little financial breathing room for that. Certainly, the Defense Department could ease some of Boeing’s pain by renegotiating fixed-price contracts that are strangling the company.” • Interesting to see who’s riding to Boeing management’s rescue…

Manufacturing: “Resolution of a Boeing legal crisis hangs in balance as financial crisis deepens” [Yahoo Finance]. “Boeing’s plan to lay off thousands of workers could potentially pose a problem for approval of the guilty plea deal, according to [Rizwan Qureshi, a former federal prosecutor and white-collar partner in Reed Smith LLP’s Washington office]. The company breached its original DOJ agreement by failing to carry out its promised compliance and ethics measures. Because those requirements were meant to prevent and detect future violations of US fraud laws, Boeing may need to satisfy Judge O’Connor that laid-off workers are not needed to carry out its future safety commitments.” And: “The families want the agreement thrown out in favor of a trial and bigger fines. Boeing has agreed to pay $487 million, including a credit for roughly $243 million in fines already paid…. Relatives of the victims asked the judge to fine Boeing $24.8 billion.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s Strike Stalemate Leaves Mediators Hunting For Consensus” [Bloomberg]. “Federal mediators check in frequently with the deadlocked officials, teasing out details of what they’re thinking and paying close attention to even the slightest wording changes. They’re looking for shifts that would merit summoning teams from Boeing and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers back for more negotiations, hoping the next round might finally bring a breakthrough… the IAM district has a history of long strikes at Boeing — the average is 58 days, according to Robert Spingarn of Melius Research LLC. And union officials have been preparing workers for years for a long hold-out. ‘This isn’t necessarily unusual and in particular for these parties, if you look back historically,’ said [Beth Schindler, a regional director for the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service], who’s been with FMCS since 1996 in Seattle, helping on previous Boeing strikes. ‘I have no doubt that they are working behind the scenes, even if independently, to figure out what their next steps are.’… ‘We’re looking for rocks to turn over to see if there’s something underneath,’ Schindler said.” • Turn over a rock at Boeing and you’ll find management.

Manufacturing: “Ryanair Chief Says Boeing To Blame For Lower Traffic Growth” [Forbes]. “Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary said that in his 30 years in the airline industry he had never seen capacity constraints like those he’s facing now. ‘We were supposed to get 20 deliveries before the end of December. They’ll probably come now in January and February, and that’s fine. We’ll have them in time for next summer,’ O’Leary said. ‘The big issue for Ryanair is we’re due 30 aircraft in March, April, May and June of next year, and how many of those will we get?’ ‘I think we’re clearly going to walk back our traffic growth for next year, because I don’t think we’re going to get all those 30 aircraft,” O’Leary added.”

Tech: “Musk Sneaks in X AI Training Clause…and No, You Can’t Opt Out” [Tech.co]. “X has updated its T&Cs and eagle-eyed users have spotted a now sweeping rights grab that means all content can be used for training AI models. The new license includes the statement that users who post, submit, or display content on the social media platform now automatically grant the platform a ‘worldwide, non-exclusive, royalty-free license.’… It also includes the right for X to sublicense content, which means it can offer it up to other parties… The sublicensing element means that AI developers could buy your content from X; and you’ll be completely unaware of who is using it and how.” • Reader query: I don’t want to allow Elon’s new Terms to steal my photographs and turn them into AI slop. Does anybody know of a really fast (in seconds) AI poisoner for images? I’ve tried Nightshade and it’s too slow, like half and hour per image (and the UI/UX is awful).

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 72 Greed (previous close: 69 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 69 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 17 at 3:37:34 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

Since this is a Booth cartoon, I thought about putting it in Gallery, but Zeitgeist Watch seems more appropriate:

News of the Wired

I am not feeling wired today.

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

TH writes: “I don’t know what it is about roses with a wall background that always compels me to photograph them, but that’s my excuse for taking this one.”

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

39 comments

  1. Cervantes

    Is there any rational explanation for why the Boeing management is so recalcitrant? Did I miss it? I mean 40% over 4 years isn’t that crazy after all the inflation, right?

    Reply
    1. urdsama

      No, and while I think Boeing management is brain dead enough to refuse even that, the pension claw-back is the bigger issue.

      Reply
      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > the pension claw-back is the bigger issue.

        A return to defined-benefit is a big thing. OTOH, having a workforce that can build planes that don’t corkscrew into the ground is also a big thing.

        IIRC, direct labor is 4% of the cost of a plane (please correct me on that)). So it’s sheer cussedness not to give the workers what they want, especially after all the looting in the form of stock buybacks, salaries, bonuses, etc., plus whoever gets all the fun of whacking whistleblowers.

        Reply
    2. AndrewJ

      They’re squillionaires. They probably believe they can hold out until Biden steps in to crush another strike.
      The only time the elite can countenance losing money is if they need to do it to crush a union.

      Reply
  2. antidlc

    https://x.com/_CatintheHat/status/1842895616868786395

    Cat in the Hat 🐈‍⬛ 🎩 🇬🇧
    @_CatintheHat
    COVID INQUIRY

    I’ve posted a number of tweets from the Inquiry hearing on 16 Sept.

    This was the day that Dr Lisa Ritchie took the stand. She chaired the IPC Cell which wrote the Covid infection control guidance for UK hospitals.

    I’ve collated all the tweets in this thread

    Reply
  3. Wukchumni

    Sports desk

    Never has an amazing ballplayer struggled so when I’ve had the chance to watch him on the telly, heck I’m lucky to see Ohtani eke out a single and he seems to strike out quite a bit if I’m on hand.

    He obviously is not that bad of a hitter…

    Play ball!

    Reply
    1. Screwball

      IMO, the baseball story of the year was the Detroit Tigers. What they accomplished from mid-August after the trade deadline (sold) was quite a story. 10 games out on August 11 and made the playoffs. Beat Houston in two games and went 5 against Cleveland.

      Reply
  4. ChrisFromGA

    (Kick it!)

    Pigmen must fight … for the right … to party!

    You wake up to more wars, man, them Houthis gotta go
    You ask for 50 basis points, please? But the Fed says no!
    You missed NVDA, and didn’t do your homework
    But this market gonna party like Cardi B. twerks

    This market must fight … for the right .. to party!

    Jay Powell caught you mongering, and he says “no way!”
    But that hypocrite prints $3B a day!
    Man, dealing with FOMO is such a drag
    Now your broker traded away your best cocktail party brag (bust it)

    This market must fight … for the right .. to party!

    (you gotta fight)

    Don’t bid up a bankrupt meme stock, chapter seven beware!
    I’ll kick you out of my exchange if customer funds ain’t there !
    The SEC busted in and said: “Your 10-Q lies!”
    Ah, Feds are just jealous, it’s dot-com reprise!

    Wall Street must fight … for their right … to party!
    Wall Street must fight … for their right … to party!

    Parrrrr-tay!
    S&P 6K!!
    Printer go brrrrr-yay!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBShN8qT4lk

    Reply
    1. sardonia

      Fun!

      Adam Yauch used to crash in my tenants’ flat below mine whenever he was in SF. Interesting guy…gone too soon….

      Reply
    2. griffen

      Nicely done. My fave of their music in particular is Sabotage. Alas I only know their hit tracks the best. “I’ll stir fry you in my wok” is a hilarious line from Intergalactic.

      Reply
    1. Samuel Conner

      And in reply to the question, “I’ve had COVID twice; what should I do?”, the medical expert replied that heart disease is preventable — do those kinds of things. The elevated risk of a preventable condition seems to be acceptable.

      Not a whisper about measures, such as (horrors) high quality respiratory protection, to reduce the likelihood of further repeated infection and further elevated risk of this or other Long COVID complications.

      Evidently we should just “live with” continuing unmitigated risk of contracting COVID.

      On the brighter-ish side, it may be a very long time before our population is well enough for US to get involved, in a “boots on ground” way, in land wars in Asia.

      /s

      Reply
    2. Samuel Conner

      I think this is the underlying research mentioned in the article (based on recent publication, title/subject matter and the size of the study population, which correlates with details in the news item). The link takes you the PubMed abstract; the full article is open access and available at the open access icon at upper right.

      Reply
      1. Lee

        From the paper:

        Hospitalization for COVID-19 represents a coronary artery disease risk equivalent, with post-acute myocardial infarction and stroke risk particularly heightened in non-O blood types.

        Non-O blood type would be me. Good to know that my rather strict self protective protocols are not wasted effort.

        Reply
    3. Lee

      “Well, I’ve had COVID twice. What does this do to me?”

      The acute and long term effects of Covid infections appear to be so wildly variable, who TF knows? A bedridden, mildly demented 96 year old neighbor got it and it barely affected her. Her grandson and carer said he thought she may have briefly experienced some delirium but given her dementia he wasn’t sure. He, OTOH, got hit much harder by it and reported that he was for a time definitely delirious.

      Reply
  5. Lee

    I just finished watching the Apple TV adaptation of Mick Herron’s Slow Horses novels. I really liked it —great cast and fine acting. However, as is so often the case, the books are better. One thing about Heron’s writing that the screen version cannot convey well is his wonderfully animistic descriptions of putatively inanimate phenomena. And since I am currently steeping myself in Zen related literature, I cannot help but see parallels with Heron’s work. The boss, Jackson Lamb played by Gary Oldman, is a drunken master combined with Rinzai’s brutal straightforwardness. And the slow horses themselves are the fourth horse in the following Zen parable:

    “It is said that there are four kinds of horses: excellent ones, good ones, poor ones, and bad ones. The best horse will run slow and fast, right and left, at the driver’s will, before it sees the shadow of the whip; the second best will run as well as the first one does, just before the whip reaches its skin; the third one will run when it feels pain on its body; the fourth will run after the pain penetrates to the marrow of its bones. You can imagine how difficult it is for the fourth one to learn how to run!

    I am inspired to reread Herron’s books.

    Reply
    1. marcyincny

      Thank you. The film adaptation has been my big guilty pleasure and I was wondering if I should read the books.
      Thank you also for the parable!

      Reply
      1. Lee

        Still in my one week free trial of Apple TV, so I’m now watching the adaptation of Asimov’s Foundation, which I read very many moons ago. I see another reread in my near future.

        Reply
    2. Samuel Conner

      I think that our public servants (in the higher levels of authority; less sure about local) are, for the most part, of the fourth kind.

      And that is before the Long COVID brain fog.

      Reply
      1. Lee

        Perhaps not. In Zen terms the first horse could be understood as representing what we here call with some disdain the front row kids, while the fourth horse feels the world’s pain down to the marrow of its bones and is therefore better positioned to becoming wise and compassionate, or sometimes not, as the case may be.

        Reply
  6. Jason Boxman

    Posted this in the wrong day, but:

    Democrats are seriously bedwetting about a Harris loss, with the blame cannons firmly targeting Future Forward:

    Inside the Secretive $700 Million Ad-Testing Factory for Kamala Harris (NY Times via archive.ph)

    Founded by a group of wonkish Obama campaign veterans, Future Forward is animated by the idea that a blend of data science, political science and testing can usher in a new era of rigor in advertising. The group’s ads were widely praised in 2020, and Future Forward earned the coveted designation as the official super PAC first for President Biden and then for Ms. Harris.

    More Obamanauts!

    But throughout the year, some top party strategists have worried about the consolidation of so much money and decision-making in a single group. They warn of succumbing to what some describe as a tyranny of testing and about what they see as an almost dogmatic belief by Future Forward in the power of late advertising — to the detriment of other methods of reaching voters.

    Oh noes!

    The Democrat infighting if Harris loses is gonna be epic! As epic as all those big salaries consultants be collecting.

    There’s another story up on mobile, not on desktop yet, that Democrats are using an app! to target voters because door knocking is hard. I feel like Obama’s tech wizards infected the Democrat Party and now everything is metrics based, app based, and web based. That certainly worked out for the Iowa Caucus, though!

    This huge cash advantage, and they’re squandering it perhaps on digital buys and apps! We shall know soon enough.

    Reply
  7. steppenwolf fetchit

    One wonders if the various striking workers at Boeing are beginning to suspect that the only way to bring back the proud high-quality Boeing they remember might be to keep on striking until Boeing debt-loads itself right into bankruptcy. This would be based on a faint Hail-Mary hope of the next Administration doing a crash-cramdown for Boeing the way the Obama Administration did a crash-cramdown for GM and Chrysler.
    Perhaps they are hoping that all the “new Boeing” cancer cells dating from the McDonnell-Douglas trojan horse takeover and ever since can be rolled up into Bad Boeing and liquidated. And the Seattle-based factories and people could be compressed into a new little stub called Good Boeing which would then be permitted or even helped to grow back some without any of the Bad Boeing perpetrators being allowed to remain in any way involved with Good Boeing.

    Reply
  8. JMH

    I am not at all anxious about the election, but I struggle to avoid despair.Neither on is fit to hold the office. each is a genocidaire. DJT means renew noise and chaos. KDH is a blank slate. I expect four more years of gridlock, finger pointing, performative “politics”, and grifting. The best outcome would be a widespread boycott. “But we must vote. It’s a civic duty.” In this year of grace, why? Congress listens to its donors and ignores all us cattle or deplorables. The mindless Ukraine War will go on and why not. There are still living Ukrainians to feed into the wood chipper.No matter what, the government supports Israel. Why? Because we want to gain control of West Asia, screw with Iran and Russia, mess up the North-South Corridor and Israel is our hammer to beat the region in to line. Will it work? Maybe in the short run it might, maybe, look like a success, but when you ally with mass murder, you will lose in the long run. Biden and the boys … Blinken, McGurk, Hochstein, and Sullivan … Neocons, Zionists, running their own show? maybe, but Joe has been the Zionist’s Zionist since he was a pup. And it will not change no matter who wins. These loons or morons or whatever they are , have the US on the road to collapse … nose deep in the BIg Muddy but just a bit farther and we shall be victorious. Fools and poltroons. Do not vote for them.

    Reply
    1. barefoot charley

      Word. I see Cornel West didn’t make the California ballot after all, so I’ve decided to respect Jill Stein’s claim that the Greens are the Official Democratic Party Spoiler Party. If she makes 5 percent nationally the Greens will qualify for gummint subsidies to continue spoiling Democrats–so my vote won’t be wasted after all! Of course we need an official spoiler party for the Republicans too–the Libertarians, maybe? It would be their best argument.

      Reply
  9. Samuel Conner

    > “In an appearance on Special Report With Bret Baier [Kamala] got tough questions about immigration policy and the southern border. It was in answering those questions that Harris demonstrated how much the Democratic Party is moving right — toward the ideological center on immigration — under the banner of her candidacy. She chose not to defend the virtue of immigration, or of immigrants themselves, and continued to cede the playing field to the right

    Reflecting on the “ambush” Baier sprang on KDH (detained illegals were released pending hearings; some of these committed murders; do you regret the policy change that led to this?), the thought occurs that “several murders committed by individuals in a population of 6 million [Baier’s number] crossing illegally into US during JRB administration” is a far lower murder rate than the prevailing rate among the population, ~20,000 per year in a population of 330 million. Perhaps I’m missing something, but it superficially appears that the JRB policy actually made US a less violent place, on a per-capita basis.

    Reply
  10. Tom Stone

    It’s a nice warm and breezy day here in Sonoma County, I took a short walk in the park and it is crispy dry, walking under a Maple tree was like walking across a field of Doritos.
    There’s still plenty of time for a 1MM acre wildfire or two before the rains come.

    Reply

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