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2:00PM Water Cooler 10/21/2024

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Patient readers, this is shorter than it should be, because I must hustle along and finish my post on Trump’s visit to McDonald’s. –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

I thought I would try some nightingales….

Common Nightingale, Wedding (Kreisfreie Stadt), Berlin, Germany. “Bird singing, as neighbours insist: 24 hours a day (!?),”

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In Case You Might Miss…

  1. The polls: the race is too close to call.
  2. Obama’s West Wing Brain.
  3. Machinists to vote on the new contract Wednesday; it’s a cliffhanger.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Less than three weeks to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

Big Mo shifts toward Trump, this week, even in WI (that is, if you ignore the entire concept of margin of error). Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.

Some good news for Harris:

“Exclusive poll: Harris and Trump tied amid battle for Latino and Black voters” [USA Today]. “In the seven weeks between the two polls, Harris lost ground among Latino voters, who now support Trump 49% to 38%, and among Black voters. They favor Harris 72% to 17%, a 55-point advantage that is well below where Democrats traditionally fare…. Trump leads among men, 53% to 37%, a mirror image of Harris’ lead among women, 53% to 36%.” • Hence Harris’s campaign theme of Lyistratic Non-Action.

“State of the Race: A Slight Shift Toward Trump but Still No Clear Favorite” [Nate Cohn, New York Times]. “The polls simply are not precise enough for a 0.2-point edge to convey any meaningful information. For all purposes, the race is tied; don’t feel any sorrow or take any solace in whether your candidate is on the right or wrong side of that 0.2-point gap…. In recent elections, the polls have tended to systematically underestimate or overestimate one side by several percentage points. If that happens this year, either candidate could claim a surprisingly decisive victory. • Handy chart (though 2022 was not a Presidential election year):

“Where are the polls?” [Politico]. “The weekend is passing without a single high-quality public poll — nationally or in any of the battleground states — released on either Saturday or Sunday. Nothing from The New York Times and its high-profile partnership with Siena College. Crickets from all five broadcast and cable news networks’ Sunday shows. It’s a striking lack of data in the third-to-last weekend before Election Day… For now, it seems like many of the pollsters with the most established track records are taking an uncharacteristic break in advance of their final polls over the last two weeks of the race.” • It’s quiet. Too quiet.

“I spent 3 days in 3 battleground states. Here’s what voters told me” [Los Angeles Times]. “It’s hard to believe after the Fox News interviews, the daily barrage of screaming ads and all the history on these two candidates that anyone would be left undecided with less than three weeks until election day. Yet there they were, surprisingly easy to find, drinking lattes at a strip mall Starbucks, browsing magazines at Barnes & Noble and eating eggs with their spouses at a pancake restaurant. Some were leaning toward former President Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris but were waiting on family meetings or a final round of online research. Others were hoping for inspiration on the drive to the precinct on Nov. 5.” Family meetings! At the end: “Clayton Ewing, a 63-year-old retiree from Shelby Township, Mich. who has voted for Trump in prior elections … said he may wait until he gets to the polls to make a final decision. ‘I just hope, whoever gets in, does a good job,’ he said. ‘We can go four years down the road and get some new characters.'” • Doubtful.

* * *

Kamala (D): Another billionaire heard from:

Kamala (D): “Usher Joins Kamala Harris in Atlanta: Her Vision ‘Includes Everyone'” [Rolling Stone]. This Usher? “Usher Says ‘Very Curious’ Things Took Place When He Lived With Diddy for a Year in Resurfaced Interview” [The Wrap]. • Oh.

Kamala (D): Harris tells Muslims “Don’t vote for me!” In Michigan!

Kamala (D): “Harris went to Detroit to appeal to Black voters. They’re still skeptical” [Politico]. ” Kamala Harris returned here this week to energize Black voters. She came with a litany of new policy proposals tailored to them and answered their questions during a town hall hosted by celebrity radio personality Charlamagne tha God. The marquee event with ‘The Breakfast Club’ co-host, also included a separate exclusive watch party at a Black-owned speakeasy for 100 or so insiders. But it didn’t seem to register with Detroiters outside the carefully stage-managed campaign bubble. ‘She really be in and out,’ said Ashey Johnson the day after Harris touched down in Detroit as she placed an order at a Caribbean restaurant on the city’s west side. Johnson hadn’t yet listened to the hour-long town hall, though she liked that she was interacting with Charlamagne and getting ‘more in touch with her community.’ That Harris, even after her sixth trip to the state since launching her White House run this summer, is still struggling to connect with this key constituency underscores the dual challenges she faces here in the final sprint to Election Day. While she needs Detroit’s majority Black electorate to turn out in hopes of running up the margins in the state, polls indicate Harris’ standing among Black men is flagging compared to what Joe Biden received four years ago.” • Oof.

Kamala (D): “Harris has no current plans to campaign with Biden before Election Day” [NBC]. “The strategy was crafted with coordination between Harris and Biden aides, who believe at this time that ‘the most important role he can play is doing his job as president,’ said one of the White House officials who, like others in this piece, was granted anonymity to speak candidly. ‘He’s out there doing the job as president, and she’s out there campaigning,’ the official said, adding: ‘It’s clear voters want something new.'”

Kamala (D): Introducing the Republican in Kamala’s cabinet?

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Trump (R): To tide you over until I finish my post:

Trump (R): “Trump’s Bro-Whispering Could Cost Democrats Too Many Young Men” [New York Times]. “Nearly three-quarters of Gen Z men report feeling regularly stressed by an uncertain future, stirring painful memories of the Great Recession they witnessed as children [thanks, Obama!]. And: “His playbook? A master class in bro-whispering: championing crypto, securing the endorsement of Dave Portnoy — the unapologetically offensive founder of Barstool Sports — and giving U.F.C. President Dana White, who embodies the alpha-male archetype that appeals to many young men, a prime spot at the Republican National Convention. Mr. Trump has also cultivated relationships with simpatico comedians, pranksters, influencers and Silicon Valley billionaires like Elon Musk — all while his team bombards podcasts and social media with misinformation and memes to rally his troops. This shift in support for Mr. Trump among men is neither organic nor unexpected. It’s what happens when a well-coordinated political operation invests tens of millions of dollars to amplify Mr. Trump’s narrative and weaken confidence in the party in power… . Is this rightward drift among young men simply a short-lived, Trump-inspired episode or a more permanent transformation? The answer lies partly in Ms. Harris’s ability to connect with and motivate young voters as the campaign nears its end. To be sure, she is doing better than Mr. Biden. Among men 18 to 29, her favorable rating is 44 percent, seven percentage points higher than Mr. Biden’s and thirteen points higher than Mr. Trump’s. While Mr. Biden’s age and traditional political approach often created distance with younger voters, Ms. Harris’s ability to engage across digital platforms and tap into youth culture sets her apart.” I’m not sure how genuine Kamala’s ability to tap into “youth culture” is. She is, after all, only young compared to Biden or Trump. Finally: “To reignite the hope of the emerging generation, Ms. Harris should make a sweeping national call to both military and civilian service — name it the Generation Z Compact to Rebuild and Renew America. Such a plan would offer a sense of identity, community and patriotism, while providing economic stability and skill-building — things many young men feel they are missing.” • Dear Lord. Bring back the draft? Strength through joy?

Trump (R): “Young Men Are Drawn to Trump Via Figures Like Adin Ross, Andrew Tate, and Joe Rogan” [Teen Vogue]. “On the day Ross proclaimed was his “most important stream,” though, he was venturing into uncharted territory: He was interviewing former President Donald J. Trump. The live stream serves as an example of how right-wing and right-leaning streamers have worked in recent months to help the Republican presidential nominee court young male voters. ‘We’re going to get some good ratings today,’ quipped the metrics-obsessed former president, sitting in his living room in Mar-a-Lago. The also-former reality star was right: The video peaked at 580,000 viewers. But Trump wasn’t there for praise or the golden Rolex and Tesla Cybertruck he was given by Ross; he was there for the streamer’s large audience of young men. … A growing group of these young men have found an online home in the Manosphere, a loose community of right-leaning and anti-feminist social media agitators that is often described as including folks like Sneako, Logan Paul, The NELK Boys, Fresh and Fit, Joe Rogan, Jordan Peterson, Adin Ross, and Andrew Tate. These creators explicitly appeal to young men either through shared interests, like video games or prank videos, or by offering to teach them how to make money or ‘get girls.’ A recent survey by the Equimundo Center for Masculinities and Social Justice, a nonprofit focused on gender equality and promoting positive masculinity, found that more than 40% of young men trust one or more misogynistic voices online, including Tate and Peterson, who are arguably at the more extreme end of the spectrum from someone like Ross. Researchers note that this percentage is higher than the number of young men who trust either Trump or President Joe Biden.” • I hate pranks. That said, Hillary Clintion, 2017: “The future is female.” Are the Democrats upset that some took hier seriously?

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Trump (R): “Revealed: Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake” [Guardian]. “The Trump campaign earlier this year outsourced the bulk of its ground game to America Pac, the political action committee founded by Elon Musk, betting that spending millions to turn out Trump supporters, especially those who don’t typically vote, would boost returns. But leaked America Pac data obtained by the Guardian shows that roughly 24% of the door-knocks in Arizona and 25% of the door-knocks in Nevada this week were flagged under its internal ‘unusual survey logs’, a metric used to determine faked doors. The Arizona data, for example, shows that out of 35,692 doors hit by 442 canvassers working for Blitz Canvassing in the America Pac operation on Wednesday, 8,511 doors were flagged under the unusual survey logs. The extent of the flagged doors in America Pac’s operation underscores the risk of outsourcing a ground-game program, where paid canvassers are typically not as invested in their candidate’s victory compared with volunteers or campaign staff​.”

Trump (R): “An Interview with President Trump” (interview) [Donald Trump, Tom Klingenstein]. Discussing a moniker for Kamala:

Klingenstein: Well, my only advice is, get with a name for the purpose-

Trump: Well, do you like Comrade?

Klingenstein: Yeah.

Trump: It’s not bad.

Klingenstein: And it’s accurate.

Trump: Yeah, it’s pretty accurate. I think it’s pretty accurate.

Klingenstein: And so, if she’s Comrade, then the movement of which she is nominally the head of is Kamalism or Communism.

Trump: Well, Comrade, it means she’s into that whole sect.

Klingenstein: Right, but Comrade just refers to her.

Trump: That’s right.

Klingenstein: And I think it’s important to point out that she’s the head, at least nominally, the head of a movement.

Trump: Yeah, but I don’t think she is the head. That’s the interesting thing.

Klingenstein: Well, I don’t either.

Trump: I don’t think she is the head, there are other people behind her that are telling her what to do.

Klingenstein: I agree. Now, because I don’t–

Trump: And by the way, she shouldn’t be allowed to run. She got no votes, this was a coup, this was just like a nice, hard South American coup, but there was no blood.

* * *

NC: “Map Shows North Carolina Counties Leading Turnout as Early Voting Begins” [Newsweek]. “Karen Brinson Bell, the executive director of the North Carolina State Board of Elections, told reporters on Thursday that 76 of the 80 voting sites in the 25 counties included in the Helene disaster area opened on Thursday.” • I could end up wrong! (Of course, people still need to make it to the polls)

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The Wizard of Kalorama™

Obama’s West Wing Brain (1):

No. See “If Obama’s “Pandemic Playbook” Was So Great, Why Isn’t Biden Following It?” where I give the playbook a close reading:

Notice first, from the logo at top left, that the owner of the document [the Playbook] is not, as Politico would have it, the National Security Council, but The Executive Office of the President. “The EOP consists of several offices and agencies, such as the White House Office (the staff working directly for and reporting to the president, including West Wing staff and the president’s closest advisers), the National Security Council, and the Office of Management and Budget.” The EOP has a staff of about 1800, some political appointees, some not.

Notice second that the document has no date, no version number, no authors, no distribution list, and no glossary, despite being replete with acronyms. (Contrast the Playbook to the high-gloss “National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza” (2006), which has a signed letter from President Bush to introduce it.) Next, the Playbook’s type and logos have the jaggies, as if it was printed on an inferior grade of inkjet printer. (Some of the inner pages are really bad.) Finally, the document is printed landscape-style, and if you look carefully at the top, you will see the circular indicators indicative of comb binding. In my experience, documents in such formats are often shared in meetings round a conference table. Not many are printed, and they don’t go outside the boundaries of the entity that produced them.

All these indications combine to lead one to the conclusion that the Playbook was meant for internal use in the EOP only. Why does this matter? Because in substance the plays in the Playbook — and this is not to take away from its excellence as content — are meant to help the Executive wrangle the interagency process at the Federal level, as well as the SLTT (States, Localities, and Tribes). But none of those entities have signed off on it (nor could they, given that the Playbook has no date or version information; what would they have been signing?) The Playbook has the plays, but it doesn’t have any players. All the players have to be acquired, and the field has to be playable. You may say that the former is the job of any administration. Indeed it is, and the Trump administration was bad at it, but Obama’s claim that “We literally left this White House a pandemic playbook” is, I suppose, true, but also not relevant. The Playbook may have been necessary. but it was certainly not sufficient. The use of the word “literally” is always such a tell.

Obama’s West Wing Brain (2):

You spent eight years because after you got done servicing the FIRE sector, the recovery was the slowest on record. Do readers remember this chart:

“Money cave” is good:

Realignment and Legitimacy

“U.S. Agencies Fund, and Fight With, Elon Musk. A Trump Presidency Could Give Him Power Over Them” [New York Times]. “Elon Musk’s influence over the federal government is extraordinary, and extraordinarily lucrative. Mr. Musk’s rocket company, SpaceX, effectively dictates NASA’s rocket launch schedule. The Defense Department relies on him to get most of its satellites to orbit. His companies were promised $3 billion across nearly 100 different contracts last year with 17 federal agencies. His entanglements with federal regulators are also numerous and adversarial. His companies have been targeted in at least 20 recent investigations or reviews, including over the safety of his Tesla cars and the environmental damage caused by his rockets.” And: “Mr. Trump has vowed to make Mr. Musk head of a new “government efficiency commission” with the power to recommend wide-ranging cuts at federal agencies and changes to federal rules. Through a review of court filings, regulatory dockets and government contracting data, The New York Times has compiled an accounting of Mr. Musk’s multipronged business arrangements with the federal government, as well as the violations, fines, consent decrees and other inquiries federal agencies have ordered against his companies. Together, they show a deep web of relationships: Instead of entering this new role as a neutral observer, Mr. Musk would be passing judgment on his own customers and regulators.” • True and bad (I can’t understand why the guy can’t run a paint shop at Tesla, and yet SpaceX does so well). But am I really to believe that Musk is the only one? Billionaires don’t get to join the billionaire class by being neutral observers! See the photos:

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: After so many years, things seem unnaturally calm; the only cloud on the horizon is Walgreen’s positivity possibly hitting bottom. We’ll have to see what happens in the Holiday Surge, starting next month (though it seems we dodged a “Back to School Surge.”

Wastewater
★This week[1] CDC October 5 Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC October 12 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC October 12

Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data October 18: National [6] CDC September 28:

Positivity
★ National[7] Walgreens October 21: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 5:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC September 30: Variants[10] CDC September 30:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC October 12: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC October 12:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Good news!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.

[4] (ED) Down.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “everything in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.

[7] (Walgreens) A pause.

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). No XEC.

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

* * *

Manufacturing: “Boeing Machinists to vote Wednesday on new proposal to end the strike” [Seattle Times]. “The union has not recommended accepting or rejecting the offer but told its members it is ‘worthy of your consideration.’ A new vote that could end the strike is set for Wednesday. In an interview Saturday, Jon Holden, president of International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 751, made clear he thinks this may be the best contract the union can get. ‘It’s our job to get the best agreement that we can. And that’s what we achieved,’ Holden said. ‘There’s a lot of positive things here … it would be irresponsible of us not to place it in front of our members.'” On pensions: “The new offer does not restore the traditional pension that Boeing took away 10 years ago, which many Machinists have demanded. ‘We weren’t able to achieve that. I understand those that have wanted their pension restored. The company just has not moved on that issue,’ said Holden [with a sigh of resignation]. ‘That’s the reason why we’re not recommending [the offer].’ Instead of restoring the defined-benefit pension, Boeing’s new proposal bumps up its increased contributions to the 401(k) retirement plan. Boeing, in the prior proposal, offered an automatic company contribution of 4% of total annual pay plus a match of employee contributions up to an additional 8%. Now it’s added a one-time $5,000 contribution to the retirement plan of each Machinist. And the new proposal adds one detail that will boost the pension payout for those veteran Machinists who have it. If this offer is accepted, those who were at the company when the pension was frozen will get a monthly pension of $105 per year of service before 2014, up from $95 currently.” • So that detail is “two-tier,” oh good. I’d still like to see a board seat for the union. And I’d like to see an expiration date of May 1, 2028 (unless this Holden dude wants to thumb his nose at the UAW). Handy chart:

Manufacturing: “Voting by the Numbers: How demographics weigh in Boeing contract vote Wednesday” [Leeham News and Analysis]. “While the offer is much better than the original Tentative Agreement voted down on September 12 and the ‘Best and Final Offer’ Boeing floated a week later, approval by the membership is still in doubt. Comments on social media weigh heavily against approval…. With a major shift in demographics among the 33,000 members, opposition to the new offer may be stiff, and approval of this offer in doubt.” And: “Forty percent of the members are veterans who lost their pensions in 2014. Boeing dangled an increase in the pension benefit multiplier ($10 a month per year of service) that at most is worth $200/month to the most senior of them. This may be enough to peel off a few who are ready to retire and just holding out to see how much more they can squeeze out of Boeing. But the majority have saved for a three-month strike and will die on that pension hill. Half of the membership is less than six years on the job. About a quarter have less than two years. They’re going to be all over the map, depending on how successful they’ve been in finding temporary jobs. The ones with less than two years gain the least benefit from this contract (but also are the ones least prepared for a long strike). About a thousand people in this group will jump to max pay on ratification, because of some long-overdue changes in wage progression. They’re obvious yes votes. If this Under Six Years group splits 50-50 on the offer, it fails. If Boeing gets 60% of them to vote yes (which is likely the upper limit), the offer has a chance — but only if everything else breaks Boeing’s way. The smallest group (10%) has more than six years but less than 10 (so they’re at max pay but have no frozen pension benefit. If they vote 50-50 on the offer, it fails. If Boeing can get a majority of this group to support the offer, then the outcome is a toss-up.” And: “Boeing is already struggling to attract and retain high-quality new hires. The current entry-level pay is comparable to DoorDash delivery drivers and Amazon warehouse workers. People making $20 to $25 an hour can’t afford to put 8% of their paycheck into their 401(k)s, so the 100% match doesn’t mean much to them; there’s less incentive to vote yes on the offer.” • Does Boeing want to build airplanes that don’t fall out of the sky, or not?

Manufacturing: “Explained: What Is Boeing’s ‘Yellowstone Project’?” [Simply Flying]. “In the early 2000’s, American aircraft manufacturer Boeing began to consider a replacement for the 737 aircraft family. The first 737 flight was in 1967, and while the aircraft family had seen great success, it was time to create something new. This brought about the creation of the Yellowstone Project.” • In other word, Yellowstone was a project Boeing couldn’t, or wouldn’t, execute. Interesting timeline though.

Tech: A brief shining moment:

Still happens to a degree with syndemics…

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 73 Greed (previous close: 75 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 63 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 21 at 12:54:43 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 181. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Hard to believe the Rapture Index is going down. Do these people know something we don’t?

The 420

“Older Americans turn to marijuana for better sleep and pain relief: Here’s what to know” [FOX]. “A recent poll by the University of Michigan National Poll on Healthy Aging found that among people 50 years of age and older, around 21% said they have used a form of cannabis that contains the psychoactive compound THC at least once in the past year, and 12% use it on a monthly basis. Dr. Barbara Krantz, medical director of Older Adults Program, Withdrawal Management and Chronic Pain for Caron Treatment Centers in Florida, said her practice has seen a ‘significant uptick’ in the use of cannabis by individuals over the age of 50. ‘In our patient population at Caron, nearly all patients in our Older Adult Program have admitted to trying cannabis in some form,’ she told Fox News Digital. ‘So, it is very common.'” •

Zeitgeist Watch

Not to entire the gender wars, but I think more men should dress well. I like this account because it explains how to do that:

Followed by a long and expert discussion of yarn, worsteds, and woolens.

Games

“Grieving parents discover disabled son’s incredible secret life on World of Warcraft after he died aged 25” [Daily Mail]. “Mats Steen suffered a debilitating muscular disease that kept him confined to his apartment – but after his death at age 25 his parents discovered his secret online life that filled him with joy. Trude and Robert Steen found out the Norwegian man had a popular and fulfilling social life through his personal blog and his online roleplaying in the video game World of Warcraft. The parents, and sister Mia, knew that Mats would spend hours online using special equipment to accommodate his disability. But until his death, his mom and dad believed his life had sadly been a lonely one. It was soon after his passing they began to receive hundreds of emails from strangers who seemed to know him extremely well… The first they knew of their son’s secret life came after they announcing his death on his online blog, on which there was an email address for users to contact the family. Mats’ parents and sister had been expecting a few replies but were not prepared for the reality as they were inundated by hundreds of strangers writing to them – also, Mats was known by a completely different name: Ibelin Redmoore. … Redmoore had built up an extensive network of friends over the years and had become known for his kindness and empathy.”

Department of Feline Felicity

Not quite:

Cat’s might; but only if they really wanted to. That’s what I like about them.

Gallery

The joyful brightness of fresh snow:

News of the Wired

“Listen Here: Scientists reveal the haunting sounds of Earth’s magnetic field flipping” [Study Finds]. “In a groundbreaking project, scientists from the Technical University of Denmark and the German Research Centre for Geosciences have transformed data from the European Space Agency’s Swarm satellite mission into an auditory experience that’s both fascinating and slightly unnerving. The star of this cosmic concert? The Laschamp event, a brief but dramatic period when Earth’s magnetic field did the unthinkable – it completely reversed direction. During this geomagnetic rollercoaster, our planet’s magnetic shield weakened to a mere 5% of its current strength, leaving Earth more vulnerable to cosmic rays than ever before. ‘The team used data from ESA’s Swarm satellites, as well as other sources, and used these magnetic signals to manipulate and control a sonic representation of the core field. The project has certainly been a rewarding exercise in bringing art and science together,’ explains Klaus Nielsen, a musician and project supporter from the Technical University of Denmark, in a 2022 media release after researchers first converted the magnetic field into sound. The result is a soundscape that blends familiar natural noises like creaking wood and falling rocks with otherworldly tones, creating an audio journey that’s both familiar and alien.”

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Wukchumni:

Wukchumni writes: “Gem Lake in the eastern Sierra.”

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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44 comments

  1. hk

    There really is only one person who can credibly call on the young to volunteer themselves for betterment of themselves and the nation–JD Vance, because he’s done it himself. Bonus points since he promises to not get entangled in foreign adventures (at leadt in comparison to others.) If he cares to do something like that, of course.

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      1. The Rev Kev

        I think that another reason that Blinken went to the Middle east is to convince some countries to let Israel overfly them on the way to attack Iran. Also to convince Lebanon to go after Hezbollah because Israel can’t do it themselves. The man is a muppet.

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    1. ambrit

      Can we get fries with that order?
      Fun fact: Bill Clinton was a customer at Mickey D’s so much that Saturday Night Live once made fun of him doing so. Now the Orange Haired Demon (hat tip S Clay Wilson,) works the grill for a bit as “political performance art” and will garner the opposite of the Saturday Night response for Clinton on that same show, I guarantee. I’m just curious why Saturday Night Live doesn’t include a Blue Check next to its opening credits logo.
      Stay safe.

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  5. flora

    Taibbi and Kirn, ATW tonight. No paywall.

    ATW Livestream Tonight at 8 PM ET/7 PM CT

    “We’re less than three weeks removed from Election Day, and naturally, things are heating up. With the U.K. Labour Party sending nearly 100 staffers to campaign for Kamala Harris in key swing states, the long-running question of foreign election interference — legal or otherwise — once again takes center stage. Politico is focusing primarily on the Republicans’ reaction to the news. But is that the real story here?”

    https://www.racket.news/p/atw-livestream-tonight-at-8-pm-et7-e20

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    1. ambrit

      Sounds similar to when then German President von Hindenburg appointed the head of a certain far right militant Party as his Chancellor.
      Beware the Nones of November!

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    2. petal

      I figured that would happen. Definitely had it on my bingo card. That it would be LC’s way back in. Never let an opportunity go to waste.

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  7. Mikel

    “Not to entire the gender wars, but I think more men should dress well…”

    Good luck with the single-stitch, refugee wear from the sweat shops that populates so many stores in the USA.

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    3. Anthony Noel

      Sorry, but I don’t think that’s dressing “well” I think that’s dressing in an uncomfortable, overly restrictive, overly warm style. If that’s your thing fine, but please don’t act as if your taste in dressing “well” is objective and universal.

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      1. Mikel

        Panties in a bunch?
        “but please don’t act as if your taste in dressing “well” is objective and universal.”

        Didn’t say that was my taste. I said good luck achieving that look with what’s available.

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  8. Mariah

    The sickening slaughter in Gaza is soul vomiting. Along with Ukraine, how Americans can fetishize pro sports, fashion and personalities while this is going on, children being shredded, rescuers bombed, let alone support the administration using our tax dollars to pay for it, is disheartening.

    Something has to change. The solution is to vote out EVERY incumbent that has allowed this.

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  9. Louis Fyne

    clean water and Trump’s July assassination attempt (bear with me…..)

    So an official interim report on the July shooting dropped.

    Interesting tidbit, the shooter had elevated levels of heavy metals (antimony, lead, selenium) in his blood. From a (short) lifetime of drinking legally-compliant, but contaminated, public (or private) ground water?

    The kids, by default, got tested for lead at 12, 24 months…dunno how common that practice is nationwide.

    https://taskforce.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/july13taskforce.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/task-force-interim-staff-report-10.21.2024.pdf

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  10. Jason Boxman

    ‘He’s out there doing the job as president, and she’s out there campaigning,’ the official said

    How is it that she’s at the top of the ticket, then, and Biden is relegated (hopefully forever) to the dustbin of history? This guy can execute the duties of the office, or he cannot? If he cannot, why is he still president? If he can, why isn’t he still running for reelection?

    Very confusing.

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  11. Jeff W

    From The Independent “Their son died at 25. Then they discovered his extraordinary secret life online” (linked to in the Daily Mail article) [here]:

    Before Mats’s death, the Steens would attempt to steer him – and his sister Mia – off the internet, assuming that they were spending far too much time online and seemingly alone. “The sad thing is that we were very strong on condemning the time they were spending in that world, and that condemnation was based on a five-minute analysis,” Robert [Steen, the father] says.

    The articles are framing this story as one illustrating how fulfilling the online world can be—“a portal to another world,” “a place of opportunity for disabled players” is how the Daily Mail puts it (that seems to be the way the film documenting Mats Steen’s life, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, frames it)—but I see it more as one about how people assume things about others that often aren’t true.

    Yet it’s not like Mats Steen’s parents had to be “more involved” in Mats’ life or “should have known” about his “secret” friendships or relationships—that was up to Mats to divulge, if he so chose, and he chose, for whatever reason, not to. It would have been better at least for his parents not to assume one way or the other.

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  12. Lefty Godot

    The America Pac information sounds slightly concerning for Trump. His GOTV effort has to be better than average if he’s going to win. Too many sympathizers assuming a win, or just a little tired of the whole thing, who end up not going to the polls could cost him winnable states. The billionaires and centimillionaires will still lumber on providing the overall direction of society no matter who wins, I guess. As in 2016, it’s too bad there isn’t a way both of these tickets could lose.

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  13. Duke of Prunes

    I first read about this in the comments here, but now I’ve seen it in the wild: some bubble dwellers I know on facebook wringing their hands (or perhaps clutching their pearls) about Trump’s being too old and his obviously dwindling mental capacity. They’re speculating that if he should actually win, within 6 mos he will be 25th amendmented and JD takes over. In fact, this has been the “mega donors” plan all along, and Trump is being played.

    I wonder who comes up with this stuff and how easily it seems to take root in seemingly intelligent people.

    I’m also quite sure if I looked in their comment history, I’d see them supporting Biden and dismissing his diminishing metal capacity as “baseless” up until a few months ago.

    I really do worry about the future of this country

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    1. Carolinian

      If you look at the last few decades of elections the more politically competent candidate tends to win, Repub or Dem. In the current cycle the theory seems to have been that the Dems could just buy Harris the win even though she barely seems to be a politician at all. Which is to say that if our presidents are mere figureheads they need to at least have some symbolic sales value. Where’s the likability?

      People like Axelrod were right to worry about Kamala. If she pulls it off, even with some funny business in her corner, it will be surprising.

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    2. ambrit

      I’m rereading an old copy I have of a ‘fun read’ called “The Big Con.’ It is a reasonably honest portrayal of American confidence tricksters from the 1900s down to the 1950s. The author interviewed actual con men and women for his academic work and this tome was a by-blow of said effort.
      In it, numerous “ropers” and “inside men” state that the more “intelligent” the “mark” is, the easier it is to help them fool themselves. No one wants to admit to being conned, so they rationalize their way out of the “guilt.” This often includes rationalizations for the “honesty” and “integrity” of the offending confidence men or women. Thus, I can easily understand why such otherwise “intelligent” people will continue down the garden path to disaster.
      Stay safe. Assume nothing. Always check the data.
      As goes the old joke: Numbers never lie. Mathematicians will occasionally stretch the truth. Statisticians lie for a living.

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      1. lyman alpha blob

        Years ago I ran into a guy on the street who I knew was trying to con me and I thought I would outsmart him. It did not end well for me. I wound up broke on the street corner with a bar tab I couldn’t pay. Luckily an ex-carnie coworker came by, laughed at me for being such a dumb mark, and gave me a couple bucks for bus fare so I could get home. Good times, good times!

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    3. The Rev Kev

      Kamala has been making a big thing about Trump and his mental health lately in speeches which I found weird as her own boss is off in ga-ga land and yet her party has nailed him to the Presidential desk and are insisting that he stays there for the next coupla months. And yet her ow supporters cannot see this going on – or refuse to.

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      1. Pat

        In my experience, and yes I have some unfortunately, they are happy to have Harris running but are dismayed that Joe was forced out because he had a bad night. He is a bit slower than in 2020 and has always stuttered but is still clearly capable. He took the hit because it was bringing the party down. Trump, otoh, cannot get through an entire paragraph coherently and is the real example of walking dementia and has been since before he was elected in 2016.

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    4. Acacia

      All they’ve got is: “everything you say bounces off me and sticks to you like glue !!!”

      We’re back in the elementary school playground.

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  14. The Rev Kev

    ‘Yashar Ali 🐘
    @yashar
    In Detroit, Vice President Kamala Harris was asked if she could lose due to the anger felt by Arabs, Muslims, and supporters of the Palestinian cause over civilian deaths in Gaza.
    As part of her response, Harris said, “The first, most tragic story is October 7.”’

    Maybe she should have just had a banner in the background reading ‘Israeli Lives Matter’ just to put the boot in.

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    1. JBird4049

      This is more than just insulting; this framing of the question and answer by ignoring the decades of war and occupation before October and then the vast discrepancy in casualties since then is actually a flat out lie.

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  15. Wukchumni

    I’m quite a fan if Native American wall art, and in a couple of days we will be visiting Nine Mile Canyon in Utah, which is actually 46 miles long. It is considered one of the best sites for such things and I can’t wait to see it…

    What are we going to leave for future generations to know that we were here once upon a time, aside from extensive trash dumps?

    Reply ↓
    1. Randall Flagg

      Craters from Nuclear explosions? Crushed shells of buildings on the perimeter of the blast radius? Genetic defects of those creatures that survived in the radiation?
      You’ve seen the movies…

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      1. Wukchumni

        We build nothing from stone and cement lasts about a century, so there will be lotsa rusted rebar for historians to puzzle over in 3572.

        If the anti-Confedrate monument movement doesn’t take it out, Stone Mountain in Georgia could last the test of time being the largest bas-relief art piece in the world.

        Those aforementioned historians in the future will conclude that the South must’ve won the war, as the losing side never puts up grandiose memorials.

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        1. Carolinian

          The Planet of the Apes movies try to imagine the future. In the most recent they nest in the rusting frames of high tension towers. I’m not sure these angle iron contraptions are good for holding up more than some wire.

          In addition to noting our reverence for Robert E. Lee the future archeologists will doubtless be asking “who was this person, Taylor Swift?”

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          1. ambrit

            “…“who was this person, Taylor Swift?”
            Taylor Swift is now carved on Stone Mountain? Boy, what an efficient publicity staff she has!

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    2. NYMutza

      Nuclear waste sites will need to me marked in such a manner that they can be identified 200,000 years into the future.

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  17. Anthony Noel

    The New York Times advocating that the draft be reinstated is hardly shocking, after all the powers that be want multiple wars in the next few years they’re going to need to reinstitute the draft to have anything like the manpower they’ll need. And as a knock on effect, it’ll kill off a good portion of all those toxically masculine men who just refuse to get in line for Kamala and her ilk.

    Reply ↓
  18. fjallstrom

    Regarding SpaceX I read an what claimed to be an insiders account. It was around the time when Musk bought Twitter.

    In short, it claimed SpaceX had a structure to make Musk feel like the big man while insulating the company from the whims of the boy king. Lots of amusing anecdotes.

    Reply ↓

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