By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
I thought I would try some nightingales….
Common Nightingale, Sotos de Albolafia, Córdoba, Andalucía, Spain.
In Case You Might Miss…
- 2024 Opinion-havers opine, two weeks out.
- Trump media blitz (Rogan; Carlson).
- Kamala and Biden’s decline (her view vs. the donor’s view).
- Boeing satellite explodes; Ortberg seeks culture change.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less tjhwo weeks to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
Lambert here: Big Mo shifts toward Trump, this week, even in WI (that is, if you ignore the entire concept of margin of error). Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
“Two Weeks to Go, but Only One Way to Stay Calm” [New York Times]. “‘Keep calm and throw it in the average’ is the best way for a voracious consumer of polling data to stay sane this election season…. To put this year’s post-Labor Day race into some historical polling context, I looked at how much one frequently cited polling average, that of RealClearPolitics, has moved going back through the 2008 election…. In 2008, shortly after Labor Day, John McCain actually held close to a three-point lead in national polls, but by Election Day, things had swung heavily toward Barack Obama, with the RealClearPolitics average showing Obama leading by around seven points — a 10-point range of results over the course of about two months…. . In 2020, a race in which Joe Biden consistently led in the national polls, the polling average still moved in a range from around Mr. Biden +6 to Mr. Biden +10. This year? Since Labor Day, the polls have moved from a high-water mark for Kamala Harris of +2.2 to a recent slim lead of just +0.9. So when we say the race is barely budging, it is barely budging,” And: “Trump’s very well-defined brand image anchors the election, leaving a very narrow band in which the race can trade.” I don’t think an election is a market, or a vote is a trade. More: ” I also think there’s the possibility that something methodological is behind the stability we see in the averages. Because some pollsters are weighting their surveys to a fairly fixed assumption about what the electorate will look like, including with regard to partisan makeup, it prevents numbers from moving as much as they might otherwise if the partisan makeup of their samples could float freely.” • Hmm.
* * * “James Carville: Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win” [New York Times]. “Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain. Here are three reasons: [1] Mr. Trump is a repeat electoral loser. This time will be no different… There simply do not seem to be enough voters — even in the battleground states — who turn out at Mr. Trump’s behest anymore when he’s simply preaching to his base. He has not learned from his electoral losses nor done the necessary work to assemble a broad electoral coalition in 2024. [2] Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves….. With her field operation moving like a tremendous machine, it seems likely there has never been a greater disparity in voter contact efforts…. [3] It’s just a feeling. My final reason is 100 percent emotional. We are constantly told that America is too divided, too hopelessly stricken by tribalism, to grasp the stakes. That is plain wrong…. In two weeks, we not only have a chance to elect Kamala Harris as president, but a chance to bring finality to the sordid career of Donald Trump and drive MAGA into a prolonged remission.” • “Remission,” eh?
“Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine” [Nate Silver, New York Times]. “In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast. Since the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, that is more or less exactly where my model has had it. Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: ‘C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?’ So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.” On the polling: “Instead [of shy Trump voters], the likely problem is what pollsters call nonresponse bias….. Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization. Pollsters are attempting to correct for this problem with increasingly aggressive data-massaging techniques, like weighing by educational attainment (college-educated voters are more likely to respond to surveys) or even by how people say they voted in the past. There’s no guarantee any of this will work. If Mr. Trump does beat his polling, there will have been at least one clear sign of it: Democrats no longer have a consistent edge in party identification — about as many people now identify as Republicans.” But: “Here’s another counterintuitive finding: It’s surprisingly likely that the election won’t be a photo finish…. With polling averages so close, even a small systematic polling error like the one the industry experienced in 2016 or 2020 could produce a comfortable Electoral College victory for Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump. According to my model, there’s about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states…. Don’t be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards — or if there are bigger shifts from 2020 than most people’s guts might tell them.” • I guess we’ll see!
* * * “The electorate is changing. Here’s what that means for Trump and Harris” [Ron Brownstein, CNN]. “The groups that Harris needs to give her winning margins are the non-White and college-educated White voters (especially women in each case). The fact that both of those groups are increasing in the electorate, while Trump’s best cohort is shrinking, may give Harris a small swell in her sails. “The growing parts of the population are leaning Democrat, even in this time” when so many voters are discontented with conditions in the country, Frey said. The fact that women are likely to cast more ballots than men in all the swing states, he believes, will provide a small lift to Harris as well.” • Abortion + the war machine seems to be Harris’s view of a winning formula for college-educated White women… Commentary:
A rather important development: Harris appears to be slightly outperforming Biden 2020 among Trump's base of non-college White voters.
This is key because they make up a ton of the electorate, especially in MI, PA & WI. Explains why she's holding her own in MI, PA & WI. pic.twitter.com/ww9pnp3DxY
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 21, 2024
“Donald Trump Losing ‘Core Group’ Vital in 3 Battleground States” [Newsweek]. “Political analyst Harry Enten’s analysis shows Trump is leading nationally among noncollege educated white voters by 27 points, down from 31 points in 2020 and 33 points in 2016. ‘That might not seem like a lot, but given that we’re seeing these double digit gains among Black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we’re seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the 2016 baseline, but the 2020 baseline as well, I think that’s a rather interesting development,’ Enten said… Enten said that the shift mattered because noncollege educated white voters make up 40 percent of the electorate nationally, but 51 percent of the electorate in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin…. ‘Donald Trump is making huge gains with groups that make up a smaller percentage of the electorate, but these groups that he’s losing a little bit of make up a much larger portion of the electorate,’ Enten explained. Enten’s analysis also revealed that Trump’s vote share among noncollege educated white voters is declining in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, with his lead currently standing at 19 points, compared to 22 points in 2020 and 25 points in 2016. ‘Trump is ahead, but his margins are smaller,’ Enten said. ‘And when you have a shrinking margin for Donald Trump, among his core group that makes up the majority of voters, it can make up for big shifts among smaller groups in the electorate and this is why Kamala Harris is still in the ball game right now.'” • Hmm.
“2024 Election Could Hinge on Tiny Shifts in the Electorate” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. ” This apparently very close presidential election reflects a deeply divided electorate where the potential changes in either direction we all talk about constantly are glacial and arguably self-canceling..,. Very big differences in the direction of the country will flow from tiny shifts in one direction or another of a closely divided electorate. It’s why anxiety levels are so high right now among those paying avid attention to politics, even though the outcome may depend on “low-propensity voters” barely paying attention at all.”
“Citizen Forecasting of the 2024 Presidential Election: Last Soundings” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. “Asking people who they believe will win the election, as opposed to who they are going to vote for, can be an effective tool for trying to figure out who is favored in an election. A series of four different polls asking Americans who they believe will win the election showed that more expected Donald Trump to win during the summer, but more recently these expectations have moved in favor of Kamala Harris.” A Keynsian beauty contest! More: “A growing body of evidence indicates that ‘citizen forecasting‘ (CF), as the latter method has been called, makes for more accurate predictions of the winner. Indeed, studies of CF in the United States and the United Kingdom, as well as work on other democracies (such as Canada, France, or Germany) have demonstrated that voter expectations outperform voter intentions in terms of predictive accuracy, yielding a higher level of statistical and substantive significance. Inspired by this impressive track record, we have been systematically recording citizen forecasts with regard to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, via nationally representative samples of American voters, as drawn by the Verasight survey team.” And: “This current citizen forecast points to a Harris victory in November.” But: “Verasight polls conducted June 20-26, July 20-22, Aug. 20-26, Sept. 20-Oct. 2. N = 750 for all four polls.” • The last polling was still during Harris’s honeymoon period, three weeks ago. And that’s a long time in politics.
* * * “Will long COVID sway the 2024 election? These Rutgers researchers think it could” [USA Today]. “An aging U.S. population and the rise of long COVID mean voters with disabilities may have more of an impact on the upcoming election than ever before, a new Rutgers University report finds…. Between aging, long COVID and other factors, one in six eligible voters in the U.S. now has a disability of some type, the Rutgers researchers found. That’s double the growth rate of voters without disabilities, their report said…. Historically, these voters have splintered into smaller groups, each lobbying for its specific needs to deal with developmental disabilities, mobility challenges or other issues. But the various communities came together during the pandemic around imperatives like access to health care and employment, Schur said…. ‘Overall, there is no real partisan advantage. When there was a blue wave in 2018, people with disabilities were part of the blue wave. There wasn’t really a big difference, and I don’t expect a really big difference this year,’ [Douglas] Kruse said. ‘But it is true, as Lisa [Schur] says, that health care is more important to people with disabilities. And I think that tends to favor the Democrats.'” That might depend on what their experience with the health care system actually is. And: “One more fact about potential voters with disabilities heading to the polls across the country this year: There will be more women (21.6 million) than men (18.6 million). That breaks down into 411,300 men and 533,900 women in New Jersey. The group of adults affected swells to 72.7 million — one in three eligible voters — after adding those who live with someone with a disability. Thought about that way, the electorate with disabilities now surpasses the Hispanic/Latino and Black voting demographics in the U.S., Kruse and Schur noted.”
* * * Kamala (D): “The Clock Is Ticking on Kamala Harris” [Politico]. “The evening’s moderator, Wisconsin conservative talk show host turned anti-Trump writer Charlie Sykes, opened with the political equivalent of a fastball down the middle of the plate. Perched beneath a ‘Country Over Party sign,’ Sykes asked Harris for her pitch to the voter who supported Republicans from yesteryear but are uneasy now about casting a ballot for a Democrat. The vice president began by citing ‘the lived experience’ of most Americans — sounding more like a graduate student from down the road in Madison than most Americans — of having much in common. She repeated a line from her stump speech about how Americans ‘love our country’ before praising democracy, the rule of law and the Constitution. Then, making a little progress, she invoked her service on the Senate Intelligence Committee, where lawmakers from both parties put aside partisanship to focus on protecting the ‘security and well-being’ of all Americans. That, Harris concluded, ‘is at stake.’ That was it. Harris said nothing specific about how she’d govern, mentioned no looming issue on which she’d work with Republicans and offered no reassurances about leading the country from the political center. And, of course, there was no critique of her own party or even an expression of sympathy or understanding about why voting for a liberal could be difficult for a longtime conservative. There wasn’t even a reference to her previous commitments to include a Republican in the Cabinet or create a bipartisan council of advisers. And this was in response to the opening question from a pre-selected moderator who is supporting her campaign!” • Everything about this is bad: the candidate, the staffwork, and the net effect on those invested in her, like Sykes, who might well feel they’d been played.
Hallie Jackson asked Harris yesterday: "Can you say that you were honest with the American people about what you saw in those moments with President Biden, as you were with him again and again repeatedly in that time?"
Harris: "Of course. Joe Biden is an extremely accomplished,… pic.twitter.com/HMykeLm5MD
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) October 23, 2024
What others saw:
At a Chevy Chase fundraiser in June 2023, Bill Reichblum tells Woodward of Biden: “He never completed a sentence….He told the same story three times in exactly the same way and it meandered so much…Frankly, my impression was there were times…it was as though we didn’t exist.… pic.twitter.com/Vav7clSMGQ
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) October 23, 2024
I suppose a Democrat loyalist would say “She has to say that,” but it sticks in my craw. And Biden is also, we may forget, still President. Why is that OK?
Kamala (D): “Detroit Muslim leader ejected from Kamala Harris rally, deepening rift between Democrats and Arab Americans” [Detroit Metro Times]. “Ahmed Ghanim, a Democrat, says he accepted an invitation to the event and was seated in the Royal Oak Music Theatre when a campaign organizer ordered him to leave. ‘She took me to the door, and she closed it, and I found two police officers waiting there, and she said, ‘You have to leave right now,” Ghanim tells Metro Times. ‘I asked why she was kicking me out. She wouldn’t answer. I was very calmly asking why I was being kicked out.’ He continues, ‘I was just wearing a suit and a white shirt. I said, ‘OK,’ and I left. The police officer said, ‘You either leave now or I’ll put you in the back of my car.'” Nice. The Harris campaign statementL “The campaign was swiftly informed by Emgage Action [Ghanim’s organizaiton] of yesterday’s incident and looked into it,’ the statement reads, referring to a Muslim American advocacy group. ‘Our campaign regrets this action and its impact on Dr. Ghanim and the community, and he is welcome at future events. We value our relationship with the Muslim American community and are committed to ensuring all community and political spaces are welcoming and respectful to every American.'” • Terrible staffwork, both in Ghanim’s ejection and the statement (in which the word “apologize” does not appear). Despite the statements blah blah blah, it looks to me like the Harris campaign already had the cops wired up, and had a list (with photos) of attendees to bar.
Kamala (D): “What Kamala Harris Needs to Do to Win Over More Black Men” [New York Magazine]. “Democrats have known since Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016 that carrying the all-important industrial midwestern states requires maximum turnout in the Black communities of Detroit, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. The problem is that Dems have assumed they could generate Obama-era levels of excitement for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden — and now Kamala Harris — without a substantial, sustained political investment up front.” And: “‘You’re going to pick on Black men and blame us for everything. What did you deliver to Black men in the past four years?’ the activist and commentator Van Jones said at a recent university discussion in California. ‘We wanted the George Floyd police-reform act. Didn’t get it. We wanted the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Didn’t get it. And we wanted the EQUAL Act, the next step in criminal justice reform, and didn’t get that. Three things we wanted, and we got zero, zilch, nunca, nada, nothing.’ By contrast, Jones noted, Trump signed the First Step Act, which granted early release from federal prison to more than 30,000 people — a monumental rollback of mass incarceration that Democrats rarely discuss.” • Hmm.
Kamala (D):
NEWS
Vice President Kamala Harris is planning to deliver her closing argument Tuesday in a speech on the National Mall.
Sources tell the Washington Post that Harris’ speech will talk about January 6 but will focus more broadly on her thoughts on Trump’s threat to democracy.… pic.twitter.com/FVM52Jl01q
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) October 23, 2024
Chutzpah. Even Obama 2012 didn’t do that. I grant that the setting tops Carlson and Rogan.
Kamala (D): Biden on the trail:
Biden in NH lists what Trump would do as president and says: “we gotta lock him up” and then, appearing to realize how his comments would be taken, adds: “politically, lock him up.” pic.twitter.com/cw3X8RzKn2
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) October 22, 2024
Thanks, Joe. We knew what you meant.
* * * Here we go! 🇺🇸 @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/bgja6JPqsQ
— Joe Rogan Podcast (@joeroganhq) October 22, 2024
JRE = Joe Rogan Experience.
Trump (R): Media blitz (2):
Our live tour is not over yet. For the grand finale, we’ll be in Glendale, AZ, on October 31st with special guest President Donald J. Trump. All profits will be donated to hurricane relief efforts. We hope to see you there.
Get tickets to our biggest show yet at… pic.twitter.com/00756VvITT
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) October 23, 2024
* * * Trump (R) (Willis/McAfee): “Special prosecutor in Georgia’s case against Trump met with Biden officials” [Washington Times]. “Nathan Wade, who led the Fulton County election interference case against Donald Trump while having an affair with District Attorney Fani Willis, admitted to congressional investigators he met with White House officials several times but claimed he couldn’t remember the details…. Ms. Willis hired Mr. Wade even though he was a divorce lawyer with little experience prosecuting criminal cases. In 2022, he was paid nearly $700,000 to oversee the case against the former president, according to a co-defendant seeking to have the charges dismissed….. Mr. Wade acknowledged the Biden administration’s involvement in the case during the interview that was conducted on Oct. 15 by committee investigators. He verified the existence of invoices he submitted in which he billed for a ‘Conf. with White House counsel’ in Athens, Georgia, on May 23, 2022. When asked about each of the invoices obtained by investigators, Mr. Wade responded 58 times that he couldn’t remember details.” • What reason could the White House possibly have for getting involved in a state prosectution? Seems odd.
* * * “Elon Musk ‘Jokes’ in a Church About Someone Killing Kamala Harris” [Rolling Stone]. “Elon Musk keeps trying to stick his ‘joke’ about somebody assassinating Vice President Kamala Harris. Over the weekend, Musk remarked, again, that ‘no one’s even bothering to try to kill Kamala’ … Acting as a Donald Trump surrogate — in addition to the $75 million moneyman behind a leading Trump Super PAC — Musk spoke Saturday night at the Life Center megachurch in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, which is notable for launching the career of Christian supremacist God-rocker Sean Feucht.” • I wouldn’t be surprised if Musk’s involvement, at all levels, didn’t turn out to be a net negative. He’s a loose cannon, and the Trump campaign doesn’t need two. (I’d like a lot less Musk, and a lot more Kennedy. I wouldn’t call Kennedy a loose cannon, so much as his own cannon. Apparently, a Townall with Trump, Kennedy, and Tulsi was cancelled; unfortunate, in my view).
* * * AZ: Impressive:
Arizona Dem running against Kari Lake foe the US Senate, RUBEN GALLEGO, had promised to visit all 22 of the state's federally recognized tribes. But there was no road leading into the Havasupai village of 639 people. So he trekked in on foot. It took him 4 hours to walk there.
— Lise Horton Is Writing (@lisekimhorton) October 19, 2024
Perhaps a stunt, but still impressive.
GA: “In battleground Georgia, poor people see no reason to vote. That decision could sway election” [Associated Press (KLG)]. “Located about 80 miles (130 kilometers) south of Atlanta, Bibb County is the kind of place where Vice President Kamala Harris would need to run up her margin in order to defeat Donald Trump in this year’s election, a strategy that helped Biden win the state four years ago as he promised to lift up Black Americans. It won’t be easy: Bibb County never recovered all the jobs lost during the pandemic, and Labor Department data show it had more jobs in 2019 under Trump than it does now. Trump, the former president, sees himself as having an opportunity with Black voters, particularly men. But he and Harris have one thing in common: Each will have a difficult time persuading people to turn out who typically sit out elections. More than 47,000 people in Bibb County were eligible to vote in 2020 and didn’t, a figure roughly four times Biden’s margin of victory across the entire state.” But: “But the more nonurban parts of Georgia are only part of the electoral puzzle. It’s a dramatically different story in Atlanta and its vote-rich suburbs where enthusiasm runs high for both Harris and Trump, although often divided by race.” However: “Nonvoters have basic, urgent needs the campaigns don’t address.”
NV: “The early voting blog, 2024” [John Ralston (ick), Nevada Independent]. “Rurals matter. Especially when they are turning out 3.5 points above their registration and producing landslide ballot wins (58-20) over the Ds….. Dems are only winning the urban Nevada ballot race by 1 percent – 38-37. Repubs have a nearly 3 percent turnout advantage statewide.” • Interesting, but early days yet.
NV: “As Harris Courts Sun Belt, Housing Costs Stand in Her Way” [New York Times]. “In a state that relies on hourly wage workers in tourism and service jobs, many cannot find an affordable place to live… Many working-class voters say a promise has been broken, and they are looking for someone to blame… Many once-reliable Democrats say the issue has eroded their trust in politicians. In the state’s Democratic hub, that means turning away from Vice President Kamala Harris. ‘When we got the new president, I didn’t hear nothing, I didn’t see any changes,’ Maria Ocampo, 54, who has voted Democratic for decades, said of the Biden administration. This year, she does not plan to vote at all.” • Innocent bystander: “Wasn’t Lina Khan working on price-gouging landlords?” Harris Campaign: “Who?”
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Early-voting data shows Republican reversal appears to be paying off” [WaPo] “Democrats have embraced early voting for years, in part because it leaves less to chance on Election Day, when busy schedules, bad weather or illness can keep voters from making it to the polls. Known as “banking” votes, early voting also allows campaigns to be more efficient with resources as Election Day draws near by focusing attention on a smaller and smaller group of voters who have not yet cast ballots.” • Another way of saying this is that early voting skews toward partisans who don’t actually need to study what the candidates are saying. Why we are allowing that population, and the convenience of party operatives, to drive how our elections are run is an open question.
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Airborne Transmission: Covid
“Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 on aircraft: A scoping review” (preprint) [medRxiv]. From the Abstract: “This review summarises reported contact-tracing data and evaluates the secondary attack rates (SAR) and factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission in aircraft, to provide insight for future decision making in the context of future respiratory pandemics…. Our results are consistent with sporadic clusters happening onboard aircraft. Close proximity to COVID-19 cases within the aircraft was associated with a higher [secondary attack rates (SAR)].” • Sitting closer to the aisle and moving about the cabin is also associated with greater risk. In addition, transmission will also depend on the ventilation patterns in any given aircraft.
Infection: Covid
“Incident COVID-19 infections before Omicron in the US” (preprint) [medRxiv]. From the Abstract: “[W]e retrospectively estimate daily incident infections for each U.S. state prior to Omicron. To this end, reported COVID-19 cases are deconvolved to their date of infection onset using delay distributions estimated from the CDC line list. Then, a novel serology-driven model is used to scale these deconvolved cases to account for the unreported infections. The resulting infections incorporate variant-specific incubation periods, reinfections, and waning antigenic immunity. They clearly demonstrate that the reported cases fail to reflect the full extent of disease burden in all states. Most notably, infections were severely underreported during the Delta wave, with an estimated reporting rate as low as 6.3% in New Jersey, 7.3% in Maryland, and 8.4% in Nevada. Moreover, in 44 states, fewer than 1/3 of infections appear as cases reports. Therefore, while reported cases offer a convenient proxy of disease burden, they fail to capture the full extent of infections, and can severely underestimate the true disease burden.” Here is a summary of the method: “First, we estimate the delays from positive specimen to report date and use them to push back the reported cases to their sample collection dates. Next, we estimate the delay from symptom onset to sample collection, combine this with variant-specific infection-to-symptom delays, and use these to push back the cases to infection onset. The resulting case estimates are aggregated across variant categories and adjusted by the case ascertainment ratio, estimated with seroprevalence survey data and a model for antigenic immunity.” This is above my paygrade. Perhaps an epidemiologist in the readership can comment.
Elite Maleficence
Still killing people:
WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG https://t.co/uP4sCT0VCy
— Nate Bear (@NateB_Panic) October 22, 2024
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC October 14 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC October 12 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC October 12 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York[5] New York State, data October 22: | National [6] CDC September 28: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens October 21: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 19: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity[9] CDC September 30: | Variants[10] CDC September 30: |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC October 12: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC October 12: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Good news!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “everything in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.
[7] (Walgreens) A pause.
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down.
[10] (Travelers: Variants). No XEC.
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
There are no official statistics of interest today.
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s bad year just keeps getting worse: One of its satellites has exploded in orbit, with debris becoming a potential threat to other satellites” [Fortune]. “A Boeing-made communications satellite has exploded, with debris floating that could potentially be a threat to other satellites at some point. Intelsat, the owner of the satellite, is reporting “the total loss” of the device in an update on its Website. The company is working with Boeing and government agencies to determine the cause of the mishap…. The U.S. Space Force says it is tracking 20 pieces of debris from the destroyed satellite and there was no immediate threat to other orbiting space equipment. Other observers, though, have seen higher amounts of debris. ExoAnalytic Solutions told SpaceNews it was tracking 57 pieces of debris and was warning operators of spacecraft that could be at risk of collision. And Russia’s space agency said it was tracking more than 80 fragments.” • Oopsie.
Manufacturing: “Boeing reports $6 billion quarterly loss as striking workers vote whether to accept contract offer” [Associated Press]. ” Boeing reported a third-quarter loss of more than $6 billion before turning its attention to whether striking factory workers would accept a contract offer Wednesday and end a walkout that has crippled the company’s airplane production for nearly six weeks…. Boeing hasn’t had a profitable year since 2018, and Wednesday’s numbers represented the second-worst quarter in the manufacturer’s history.The company burned nearly $2 billion in cash, in the quarter, weakening its balance sheet, which is loaded down with $58 billion in debt. Chief Financial Officer Brian West said the company will burn cash through 2025, but at a slower pace.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s New C.E.O. Calls for ‘Culture Change’ as Strike Vote Looms” [New York Times]. “In a message to employees, Mr. Ortberg shared a speech that he planned to deliver to investor analysts on a call later in the day to discuss Boeing’s quarterly financial results. In it, he offered a diagnosis: The company had lost too much trust, gained too much debt and made too many mistakes. To put Boeing back on the right path would require ‘fundamental culture change,’ stabilizing the business and improving execution. ‘Our leaders, from me on down, need to be closely integrated with our business and the people who are doing the design and production of our products,’ he said. ‘We need to be on the factory floors, in the back shops and in our engineering labs. We need to know what’s going on, not only with our products, but with our people.'” • Fine. Restore defined-benefit pensions (and put a union member on the Board, as I keep screaming). Here are Ortberg’s complete remarks.
Manufacturing: “Intelsat 33e breaks up in geostationary orbit” [Space News]. “An Intelsat spokesperson said the satellite was not insured at the time of the issue.” • Surely not wise, with a Boeing product?
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 71 Greed (previous close: 73 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 66 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 22 at 2:37:54 PM ET.
Gallery
One of my favorite flowers:
Monet, Irises pic.twitter.com/ElVphj6eDM
— Impressions (@impression_ists) October 20, 2024
“The Tech Coup: A New Book Shows How the Unchecked Power of Companies Is Destabilizing Governance” (interview) [Stanford University]. Interview with Stanford institute for Human-Centered AI Policy Fellow Marietje Schaake. “In what ways are private companies increasingly taking on functions normally assumed by states? In the digital realm, companies’ control of information, unfettered agency, and power to act have almost overtaken that of governments. For example, in the private intelligence sector, companies like NSO Group Technologies with its Pegasus spyware products are creating and selling the capability to hack into people’s devices. This means that anyone with the financial resources to purchase Pegasus spyware can access the capabilities of intelligence services and hack into the very private information of political opponents, judges, journalists, critical employees, competitors, and others. Another striking example is that of offensive cyber capabilities. In the name of defending their clients or their networks, companies are attacking hackers across borders, using ‘offense as defense.’ And notice that I’m talking not only about big tech companies but also small ones, because there’s de facto power that comes from the development of digital technologies.”
“How Your Brain Detects Patterns without Conscious Thought” [Scientific American]. “In an experimental trial, participants viewed a series of the face images…. During the experiment, neurons in each participant’s hippocampus and entorhinal cortex gradually began to respond not only to the face being presented but also to faces directly connected to it on the triangle. When asked whether they noticed any pattern in the order of the images, the participants said they didn’t. But their brain cells still learnt the pattern, showing that the brain can recognize patterns without conscious awareness. In the breaks between trials, the participants’ ‘face’ neurons replayed what they had learnt, cycling through the patterns on their own without being stimulated to do so. ‘This is something that is not explicit, it is implicit. And the brain gets it, essentially, very quickly, and we can see those changes in the individual cells,’ says Fried.” • Patterns generally, or optimized for faces?
For our numismatists:
Distribution of Roman Coins Found. pic.twitter.com/XC9X2E5jDR
— Illegitimate Scholar🧭 (@ill_Scholar) October 7, 2024
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From SC:
SC writes:
For more than a decade, I’ve been intrigued by the genus Tithonia, aka “Mexican Sunflower.” I first encountered it back in the ’00s or early ’10s when I read that it was used as green manure in parts of Africa, planted along the edges of fields and harvested for use as Nitrogen rich soil amendment. At first, I thought that it was fixing atmospheric Nitrogen but I later learned that it merely accumulates already-present soil Nitrogen into its tissues. It’s a cheery, attractive plant, sort of a giant puff-ball of orange daisy-like blossoms. The blossoms are well-suited to the feeding anatomy of butterflies and hummingbirds. Starting in the mid-to-late ’10s, I have been annually providing a bunch of these to a local social services agency that plants them outside its meeting rooms. The plants attract hummingbirds, which provide a morale boost to staff and clients. At, I think, clientele initiative, the agency subsequently started a horticulture sub-agenda in one of its programs, an on-site day partial care program for mentally-ill homeless people, and that has branched out into veggie, decorative and herb gardening at the agency site.
A few years ago, a sibling planted two of these (of species T. Rotundifolia, that reputedly grows to 6′ height) and aggressively watered them. They grew to the eaves of her house, 8′ at least, and were so leafy and dense that you couldn’t see through them. The plants had hundreds of blossoms and lots of hiding places, a kind of hummingbird heaven. Such a large plant from a small seed.
This photo is of an example of T. speciosa (in my experience, less tall and bushy than rotundifolia), that reputedly reaches 4-5′ height. A friend who regularly accepts plants from my “backyard nursery” passed it further on. It was started from seed in mid-Winter 2024. The recipient evidently aggressively watered and fertilized it; the plant towers at 9′. I wonder what the neighbors make of it.
Wow. I could really file this under “Look for the helpers,” too!
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It’s a bit disappointing that evidently the best Oct surprise they have is HE’S HITLER. But that must be it, since it’s Oct. 23 and that’s what they’re screaming.
Yep. NY Times is checking in. He’s a fascist. Apparently. Still.
The one thing all varieties of fascism have in common is they don’t tolerate dissent.
The pro censorship anti disinformation DP fits the fascism label more than Trump.
It was all over the scary news tonight. However, do the undecideds even watch MSM anymore? Can the mighty Wurlitzer pull out another win?
” ‘Country Over Party ”
The same slogan (“Country First”) worked so well for John McCain! The messaging arm of the Harris campaign acts like it is love-child of McCain’s 2008 campaign and Hillary’s 2016 campaign.
feature, not a bug
I seem to recall that “Country First” went right along with “Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran.”
Time for a different approach.
Great comment.
Similarities:
McCain was married to a beer billionheiress.
Hillary and Bill for sure became billionaires by now.
Harris married a union busting billionaire law partner.
Trump’s a billionaire the old fashioned way: The tax code.
The Roman Denarius was the workhorse of the empire, and even after high technology of the era made it possible to strike them with no silver content (as opposed to being 95% silver for hundreds of years) things went on as usual, albeit with the first instance of hyperinflation, in that it eventually took 3,000 Denarii to equal 1 gold Aureus, as opposed to the old standard of 25 Denarii equalling 1 Aureus.
You can see from that image the impact Roman money had on the world, not all that dissimilar to the almighty buck today.
We are on the very same trajectory, as a $20 American gold coin issued from 1850 to 1933 is now worth close to $2700 in gold value, thanks to high technology allowing us to conjure up rather unlimited amounts of money backed by nothing other than our military prowess largely.
Alchemy shows up right around the time of the Denarius being stripped of silver content, hey if it worked for silver, why wouldn’t it work for gold?
The dollar is also backed by the tax authority of the US government.
If we’re really lucky, we may live long enough to see a hyperinflation in US.
There have been 3 instances of hyperinflation in the USA already, why not have another go?
Continental Currency
Texas Dollar
Confederate Currency
Hi Wukc …
The last two examples are what happens when the Government that issued them goes poof, hence when Roman coins lost their value as the empire imploded. Basically went back to spot price or whatever two parties agreed on in a trade. So its back to what caused the government to fail and not the form the government issue was in.
On Continental currency its a bit more complicated.
“Cash in the colonies was denominated in pounds, shillings, and pence.[3] The value of each denomination varied from colony to colony; a Massachusetts pound, for example, was not equivalent to a Pennsylvania pound. All colonial pounds were of less value than the British pound sterling.[3] The coins in circulation during the colonial era were, most often, of Spanish and Portuguese origin.[3] For most of the 17th and 18th centuries, the Spanish dollar was one of the few widely accepted denominations by the people, which resulted in it serving as the colonists’ interim currency.[citation needed] The prevalence of the Spanish dollar throughout the colonies led to the money of the United States being denominated in dollars, rather than pounds.[3]
One by one, colonies began to issue their own paper money to serve as a convenient medium of exchange. On December 10, 1690,[4] the Province of Massachusetts Bay created “the first authorized paper money issued by any government in the Western World”.[5] This paper money was issued to pay for a military expedition during King William’s War. Other colonies followed the example of Massachusetts Bay by issuing their own paper currency in subsequent military conflicts.[5]” – snip
So right off the bat one can see the inception of this currency was for the most unproductive enterprise – war, not to mention having all the colonies get in on the act and dramas for investors back in England.
“Another problem was that the British successfully waged economic warfare by counterfeiting Continentals on a large scale. Benjamin Franklin later wrote:
The artists they employed performed so well that immense quantities of these counterfeits which issued from the British government in New York, were circulated among the inhabitants of all the states, before the fraud was detected. This operated significantly in depreciating the whole mass.[56]
By the end of 1778, Continentals retained from 1⁄5 to 1⁄7 of their face value. By 1780, the bills were worth 1⁄40 of their face value. Congress attempted to reform the currency by removing the old bills from circulation and issuing new ones, without success. By May 1781, Continentals had become so worthless that they ceased to circulate as money. Franklin noted that the depreciation of the currency had, in effect, acted as a tax to pay for the war.[54][52]” – snip
Point being there is a lot of history behind/in the lead up too failed currencies, be it gold or fiat. Projecting preferences does a disservice to the readership as it leaves them without a means to evaluate for themselves and litters the floor with heavy editing of human history. Its just to complicated to just reduce too soft metal with religious overtones imbued ex ante and government issued ex ante = just a cognitive state. Just never understood the notion of a permanent store of value[only found after exchange]/price in a market place dynamic e.g. the test of time wins every time no matter what form.
Wellie have to workout before … off to work … cheers
Thanks for this skippy. I was aware that Virginia exchanged this currency for 4,200 citizens in 1779 because of counterfeiting, but not the details. A portion of your reply will be added to my genealogy primer on Colonial America, which deals with English Common Law, religious customs, land deeds, surveying, and consumption.
Skippy, thanks for the excellent history lesson. This is why the NC comment section is as worthwhile as the articles themselves.
The first 2 instances of paper money hyperinflation in the west are Continental Currency and French Assignats , right around the same time period.
When the USA went to all specie money, the exchange rate for Continental Currency was 1000 Continental $’s for 1 specie $ in the 1790’s, and no Federal paper money was issued until 1861, the fourth turning once again shows up where 4 generations later, they’d forgotten the lesson of the past.
Name 1 instance of a failed gold currency in history, I’ve got all day.
Should it be pointed out that a gold coin that has been buried for two thousand years or more still has value and is untarnished? Whereas when General Patton was a small toddler, he was given actual blocks of Confederate money to play with.
Anthropological gold has a value due to its historical relevance, otherwise it would be spot price Kev, just like most jewelry. I would also note that gold traders are happy to sell in a economic panic, only to buy it back after it bottoms out south of pre panic prices.
Its just a metal.
It was already noted Wukc.
How many nations failed even when on a gold standard historically. Did nothing to stop wars, many were fought over it, goes on and on in history. Same thing happens with Fiat, so whats the difference at the end of the day.
Just never understood the belief[tm] that a currency form would stop humans [some] from blowing up the joint, for whatever reasons. Roaring 20s meets great depression and then sideways until FDR Government stepped in to clip the wings of those that were blowing the place up for self interest above all other things.
Personally I would be more concerned about equity prices moving forward in light of multipolarity and changing trade dynamics. BTW GLD price is basically all about China buys, yet BRICKS is not looking at a GLD based, basket, or commodity common currency.
Same goes for the Atlantic Nations having a tanty about the New World Order going splat and throwing toys out of the play pen but, at the same time grinding down their citizans to prop up The Market and Natural Order thingy …
If the “Texas Dollar” was a Republic Of Texas dollar, then it was not within the USA at the time of its occurrence.
The Confederate States of America was not within the United States of America until it was defeated and brought back into the USA. So the hyperinflation of Confederate Currency was also not within the USA at the time that it happened.
Steppenwolf fetchit,
Agreed on Texas. I disagree on the Confederate States — legally, the argument of Lincoln et al. was that no, the Confederate States never left the Union. They were in unlawful rebellion against it, and the Federal Government was not in physical control of much of these states; but they remained within the USA.
I agree with that argument.
As for where Roman hoards are, they left out a certain location near the corner of 6th and 57th in NYC.
Re: Boeing CEO calls for “Culture change”
The time for a culture change was back in 2020, when the 2nd to last CEO Muellinberg got sent to the Great Gig in the Sky.
That was right after the disastrous MAX crashes, preceded by years of financialization, regulatory evasion, and general shareholder enrichment prioritized over safety and engineering.
So what did the last guy (Calhoun) do for 4.5 years? Collect a golden parachute. This sort of empty rhetoric belongs in the trashcan. Put up, or shut up, Boeing.
I expect Boeing stock to be trading in a narrow range in the future, from $7.07 to $7.87 a share.
I wonder how this latest effort by them pushes along the Kessler Effect?
I’d have to validate this claim but I do believe that former CEO Calhoun clipped a cool $80 million or higher for his corner office white collar troubles…hey it’s good work if you can find it !
I think from earlier today on CNBC, the lengthy interview with Bill Ackman might have been more compelling. Nothing like having your very own hedge fund empire, and also being a billionaire investor too….few limits on the opinions he has on offer.
Apparently he gambled with Pandemic aid and lost Boeing some cash, a debt obligation which weights heavily on the company now. Not sure how these thugs aren’t in jail. I mean, I am, America is hopelessly corrupt.
Boeing machinists reject new labor contract, extending more than 5-week strike
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/24/boeing-machinists-new-labor-contract-strike.html
It’s a game of chicken now, and Boeing has up to 55bn eggs
https://leehamnews.com/2024/10/23/its-a-game-of-chicken-now-and-boeing-has-up-to-55bn-eggs/
So far, I’m really not detecting much culture change.
There wasn’t even a reference to her previous commitments to include a Republican in the Cabinet or create a bipartisan council of advisers
I have a suspicion this was not well received within the courtier and donor class outside of an inner circle with an established place in the pecking order. It wouldn’t be Mark Warner because of Youngkin, but a character with an eye on a big prize would probably worry about the Cheney Spawn.
I think another Cheney as SECDEF would be great. I bet Kamala does too.
How does it go?…Beats head against desk?
In other news, they have started clearing the downed logs off of my neighborhood streets. Apparently the city is paying for this out of their emergency fund along with help from FEMA.
Some of the fallen trees are over a hundred years old, the same age as the neighborhood named after a long ago textile tycoon.
She said it the other day at a campaign event with Liz Cheny sitting right beside her. “I will have a Republican in my cabinet.” Then a smirk. It’s definitley Liz Cheny (not to be construed as betting advice). The boys at Due Dissidence had a spot about it the other day if you want to watch the raw video.
There’s a long history of “Wokeness” or Political Correctness here in the USA, all part of our Puritan Heritage.
In the late 19th Century it was “Horses Sweat, Men perspire and Ladies Glow”, tables and chairs had “Limbs” rather than legs and in the “Better” homes the tables actually had their legs covered with sleeves of cloth.
The more things change…
I think we’re all aware of how our brains sometimes see patterns that aren’t actually there. What we call persuasive writing is, at least for me, a deliberate attempt to manipulate the thoughts of others and much of that work is accomplished through how you structure (pattern) your writing. The Rule of Three works because when we see three things listed, our brains perceive legitimacy. Do a two-column list of things and our brain starts spot-checking, list one thing and we’ll seek out other things that agree or disagree with the premise.
The hard-wired pattern recognition is a survival mechanism. First time I saw a rabid animal my reaction was to the unnatural pattern of its movements. Without thinking about it I knew the animal was dangerous. All I knew about rabies was foaming at the mouth but there was none of that. Just a skunk walking stiff legged in plain sight in broad daylight. Critters you see in daylight are almost always moving away from, not towards you.
I think the propagandists have worn this button out. We see the pattern but instead of reacting our brains flinch with our subconscious flashing “hey, last time this pattern was BS” at us. And I think the least “educated” among us are the most sensitive to overt use of patterns/signaling to manipulate us.
In other words, the harder you push, the more people resist. The more the pros exploit our hard-wired reactions to push, the more people are instinctively beginning to push back. They feel the pressure and resist. Small ‘r’ resistance is building. You really can’t gaslight all the people all the time. Just some of them, and only if they want to be gaslit.
In reply to the question about face areas vs regular patterns, whats interesting about this study is that it’s measuring patterns and positions of faces and not only the faces themselves. The face area of the brain is a very particular voxel called the fusiform face area and its role as a “face space” in the brain was hotly debated in the 00’s. I would be curious to see this repeated with objects of interest, irregular non-face looking geometries (the face-like shape of “geons” used in tests caused issues with said earlier studies), randomized shapes, and less familiar, less predictable patterns than a triangle. My guess would be faces were used to prove use value for future funding on “important” memory tasks.
It’s a function of our fishy vertebrate brain. Don’t like where things are headed? Flip left. Still no good? Flop right. Very few have the leisure or curiosity (highly colinear) to flop up, down, or sideways.
I just feel this needs to be put out as a PSA –
Remember the Walz video clip as he was using his scrotum as the loading platform for his Beretta?
And all the social media influencers and reporters standing around while he was waving his gun wildly in the air? Anyone with ANY TRAINING AT ALL – would instinctively run as fast as possible from such a scene – but they were just standing all around –
Well – look what happened yesterday – https://www.newsweek.com/reporter-hit-shrapnel-shooting-range-lucas-kunce-1973634
This Dem Senate candidate and Adam Kinziger – with reporters all around- performed the Full Cheney – with the reporter leaving the “fine campaign event” with a bloody arm. Another 8 inches and it would have been his head – and trust me – the Missouri Senate campaign would be completely over today if that shrapnel had hit one of the two bottles of Tannerite on that table.
This was even worse than the Walz fiasco – and I understand both of these gentlemen doing this are veterans. Playing with AR15s with steel targets just feet away, standing WAY TOO CLOSE to someone while using such a weapon, not wearing eye protection over the eye – but wearing them male model style on your forehead, and again having bottles of Tannerite in the line of fire. I am sure there are many other boo-boos – the photos are literal dumpster fires.
Does our military not train soldiers simple first aid anymore – especially soldiers around weapons? – I mean – duct tape, seriously?
I just do not understand the Democratic strategy here – they are all for gun control – and the AR 15 is one of their big issues, but then their candidates feel it necessary to be He-Man – and be filmed shooting them – NEVER MIND the fact that they break almost every rule of safe usage and demonstrate to all that they have literally no idea what they are doing.
And again – these morons are both military veterans.
I can scarcely believe what I am seeing.
> these morons are both military veterans.
Repeated Covid infections?
For IM Doc:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/science/puberty-blockers-olson-kennedy.html
October 23, 2024
U.S. Study on Puberty Blockers Goes Unpublished Because of Politics, Doctor Says
The leader of the long-running study said that the drugs did not improve mental health in children with gender distress and that the finding might be weaponized by opponents of the care.
>>>if that shrapnel had hit one of the two bottles of Tannerite on that table.
Okay, wtf? I’m just an idiot plinker, but I have had safety pounded into my thick head. This goes far beyond having one too many covid infections.
If he had shot Kinzinger, I would have voted for him.
So where does covering for Joe Biden’s diminished state fall under “Country Over Party”?
It would be more like “Biden Under Campaign Bus.” Essentially just a bump in the road to a Harris Regency.
The map showing the distribution of Roman coins is fascinating! I have to research what the consensus is on the immense amount in India – did they travel overland from Bactria or overland from upper Egypt to the Red Sea and through maritime trade? I have to assume the latter or another sea route without further knowledge given the high number on Sri Lanka… off to read Wikipedia…
Indians have always been rather into the barbarous metal more than most, which is why there was so much Roman coin action there.
Some other observations on that map:
The greatest concentration is Britain and NW Europe (Benelux and NE France). But this not the heartland of the Roman Empire!
Is this because soldiers were paid in cash and these were the most garrisonned areas of the Empire?
Or because these were the most unstable areas where people had to bury hoards: the heartland continuously traded through the fall and so coins were melted out of circulation and/or was able to maintain more sophisticated financial arrangements / book-keeping?
Or is this just becase it’s where all the metal detectorists are and Italians have better hobbies (amore, gelato, passagiata, bella figura)?
Raoul McLaughlin has written 2 books on the roman trade with India and the Far east.
One is The Roman Empire and the Indian ocean.
Worth reading.
Probably Sahadeva brought them back from his conquest of Rome (Mahabharata, Book 2).
Excellent post, Mark.
Eric Swalell has a new election ad out against Orange Hitler. From his Twitter feed;
We all know Donald Trump belongs in a home. Just not the White House
Too funny. The Trump being old and senile or worse has been percolating in the PMC hive brains for a while now. Now they are revving that up to 10. Credit where credit is due; the base loves it.
Hilarious they they really went for it only after DementiaJoe got put out to pasture. Lots of projection going on there. They truly have nothing original.
One of the later Harris speeches pretty much calls him Hitler so it seems they are running out of material as you say. I can’t see this stuff swaying the undecideds, but more pandering to their base. Like their base needs anymore things to get them buzzed up.
There is a Twitter thing going around that someone has something on Trump that will end his campaign. They are frothing at the mouth over that, but are being cautious because it would be too good to be true, and it probably a plant for some nefarious stunt by Orange Hitler.
One guy pretty much sums up the mind of the PMC right now;
Trump could perform an abortion on a 12 year old girl that he impregnated, put it on PPV and the evangelical right wingers would pay $49.99 to watch it and slut shame the girl.
Only 12 more days and the real fun starts. I can’t wait.
My take on the hyperbole (dictator, violence, adolph) is it’s to amp up pressure in small groups directed at people who aren’t going to vote like the “how will you feel the day after t gets re elected” ad from a few weeks back.
Dems seem worried.
It’s the economy, stupid…the rents too high and the smug self regard of the well off is off putting, misogyny/racism has very little to do with it imo
How in the world could anyone seriously believe there is some dirt on Trump still unexposed that’s going to end his campaign? That is just delusional thinking.
And even if there is some salacious story –
What is the over/under that it will all be exposed as a lie in less than 3 months?
That is the level at which I treat anything coming from our media.
Like you said the other day about medicine – trust.
We have lost trust in so many things. That isn’t good and won’t end well. We are lost ships only to be seen from our smoke on the horizon, drifting aimlessly in a sea of BS, with no one in charge. We are the band that plays on.
OK, Pink Floyd fan here. Might have to spin up “on the turning away.”
Stay safe all.
I assume it’s this?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/23/donald-trump-accuser-stacey-williams-jeffrey-epstein
A former model who says she met Donald Trump through the late sexual abuser Jeffrey Epstein has accused the former president of groping and sexually touching her in an incident in Trump Tower in 1993, in what she believed was a “twisted game” between the two men.
I got an idea. Trump should say that the Democrats could call Bill Clinton to the stand as a witness to his innocence as he was always hanging around Epstein’s island and taking dozens of trips on the Lollita Express. Maybe Bill Gates – who is also now backing Kamala – could be called to the stand as he was trying to schmooze up to Epstein as well. And just to put the boot in as you now have Brits doing electoral interference in the US, demand that “Randy Andy” also give testimony. All their testimonies would be a lot more recent than something that was supposed to have occurred over thirty years ago.
If Tithonia plants are strong-stalked enough to support bean vines, why not grow a bean vine or two next to each Tithonia plant? The bean vines could fix their own Nitrogen while the Tithonia is uptaking already-present Nitrogen from the soil, and the bean plants could provide some food to the gardener while semi-restoring N levels into the soil which the Tithonia is taking N from.
But that’s just a hopeful theory and suggestion, of course.
I suppose the larger question is whether Tithonia has companion plants.
I tried search-engining for an answer and couldn’t find one.
Since the Mexican sunflower was invented in Mexico, I suspect some of the Native Indigenous nations of Mexico may use companion plants with Tithonia, or use Tithonia as a companion plant with others.
It’s an intriguing idea; I think that the spread and leaf cover of Tithonia might be too much to allow pole beans to thrive climbing them, but it may be worth a try. In my experience, the plants tend to be top-heavy and they rarely stay as upright as the one(s) pictured. Climbing beans might actually stabilize the stem. Alternately, one could plant bush or pole beans nearby but not heavily shaded. I really need to start bio-improving my soil; have a hundred grams of clover seed that may help with that.
I have added orts and scraps, especially in the pundits section (lots of OGs like Sabato, Enten, Brownstein, Kilgore weighing in. You don’t have to like them…. :-)
Adding, Kamala to deliver closing arguments on the National Mall. Here are the Regulations. it looks to me like this falls under the heading of a “Special Event”:
I question whehter a political campaign event falls under the rubric of a “special event” as described. Can anybody else remember a candidate for office sponsoring a rally on the National Mall? Because I can’t.
I’m addicted to reading about this train wreck of an election! We’ll both need a break after this! It must take hours to assemble all of this!
> It must take hours to assemble all of this!
It does. And it’s more laborious than in past years because almost nothing can be trusted (like that “Black Insurrectionist” farragp. That was no zero time task).
It catches my curiosity too, now and then, but overall it leaves me feeling a little sad.
I strongly feel that in a democracy it is a citizen’s duty and obligation to vote, however…
As may have been (well-)stated here, the USA is an oligarchy masquerading as a democracy, and the voting is a charade, a deception, one that helps to enable a corrupt and harmful system of governance to continue.
Under such circumstance, what is, or are, the citizen’s obligations?
Do some Americans still think that they’re citizens? I guess the PMC class does! The elite have been referring to everyone in America as a “consumer” for decades. It’s demeaning.
I don’t know who said it, but it wasn’t me; we are a shopping mall with a flag
But still, better than a gas station with nukes, right?
My answer to that is: vote, but only write-ins and third party candidates (if there are any that I view as good). I take the same view as Terry Flynn’s defacing their ballot – I think the process is valuable, but I’m going to call out the lie of our current implementation in as official a way as I can.
I think not voting is a reasonable choice, but has the unfortunate side-effect of not documenting why you’re not voting; could be disgust with the system, could be transportation problems – so you just get thrown into a void of ‘unknown’.
Does it change anything? Probably not, but I can at least take some dark humor from writing in Cthulhu as better than the losers up for election, and on rare occasions actually vote for someone.
I would love a box that said “NONE OF THE ABOVE” but they can’t do that because it would win.
Stein runs as a progressive, good enough for me. Imo dems must Lise repeatedly before they will consider running one.
Might just be me, but I don’t quite see the “meaningful association with the park area”, unless we’re talking about this in a “picking out the drapes in the Oval Office early” sense.
Didn’t the Dems complain about Trump at Arlington cemetery, and then do this?
Lambert, you should read the definitions provided at 36 CFR 7.96(g).
A political campaign rally far more closely under the definition of a “demonstration” given at 36 CFR 7.96(g)(1)(i) than “special event”, which is defined at 36 CFR 7.96(g)(1)(ii).
Here is the definition of “demonstration”: The term “demonstration” includes demonstrations, picketing, speechmaking, marching, holding vigils or religious services and all other like forms of conduct that involve the communication or expression of views or grievances, engaged in by one or more persons, the conduct of which is reasonably likely to draw a crowd or onlookers. This term does not include casual park use by visitors or tourists that is not reasonably likely to attract a crowd or onlookers. (36 CFR 7.96(g)(1)(i))
Here is the definition of “special event”:
The term “special events” includes sports events, pageants, celebrations, historical reenactments, regattas, entertainments, exhibitions, parades, fairs, festivals and similar events (including such events presented by the National Park Service), which are not demonstrations under paragraph (g)(1)(i) of this section, and which are engaged in by one or more persons, the conduct of which has the effect, intent or propensity to draw a crowd or onlookers. This term also does not include casual park use by visitors or tourists which does not have an intent or propensity to attract a crowd or onlookers. (36 CFR 7.96(g)(1)(ii))
A political rally would fit clearly under “demonstrations, picketing, speechmaking, marching, holding vigils or religious services and all other like forms of conduct that involve the communication or expression of views or grievances, engaged in by one or more persons, the conduct of which is reasonably likely to draw a crowd or onlookers.” (36 CFR 7.96(g)(1)(i))
Apologies for a missing word; it should be **falls** far more closely under* in the second sentence above.
Kamala follows where other have tread.
Guess who closed out her campaign at Independence Mall?
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/11/on-eve-of-election-hillary-holds-her-largest-rally-to-date.html
The event at the Ellipse, outside the White House, is timed for exactly one week before Election Day.
Sources had told NBC News earlier in the day that Harris’ campaign had been planning an address on the National Mall and had sought a permit for the site.
NBC News obtained the permit application from the National Park Service, which showed the Harris campaign amended the request this week to specifically ask for space on the Ellipse.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/planning-underway-harris-closing-argument-speech-washington-dc-rcna176874
Been infected by malaria lately? Good news. You’ve boosted your immunity! Enjoy your next malarial infection!
Wait, wait, wait! I understand that the malaria parasite can evade the Terran human immune system to an extent. So, the opposite effect happens. Your immune response is reduced, not boosted.
See: https://news.yale.edu/2012/07/11/how-malaria-evades-body-s-immune-response
Here’s hoping that the Sars Coronavirus-19 does not do something similar. Oh, wait….
What Drugmakers Did Not Tell Volunteers in Alzheimer’s Trials
Fun times.
No one goes to jail, though.
FDA folded.
With so much profit to be potentially had from Alzheimer medications, you could have volunteers spontaneously catch fire and they would still give that drug a pass.
It’s time to revoke the PREPA Act , aka the PREP Act, imo. It was a gift to Pharma from the W. Bush admin. Also time to revoke H.W. Bush’s gift to the FDA and Pharma, creating a cozy ecosystem for both.
https://today.uconn.edu/2021/05/why-is-the-fda-funded-in-part-by-the-companies-it-regulates-2/#
Our friend Aurelien has a new post up which includes a hearty hat tip to Yves and NC, The Water is Rising.
Perhaps I missed it in reading this article but I don’t think that he mentioned BRICS at all.
“Can anybody else remember a candidate for office sponsoring a rally on the National Mall?”
There was a nomination acceptance speech at the WH
“President Trump delivered a more than 70-minute acceptance speech on a jammed White House South Lawn.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/trump-rnc-speech-highlights.html
Nate Silver makes some observations that’s worth some cogitation (beyond what Silver himself seems to realize):
https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-harris-could-beat-her-polls
The reason why polling errors are correlated in nearby states is that the populations in nearby states are similar: if the polls are wrong about, say, population group A by 5% in one direction in Michigan, the chances are that they would be similarly wrong for the population group A in Wisconsin as well. If this opulation group A, say, non-college educated whites, should make up significant fraction of the population in both states, the polls that are wrong about MI would likewise be wrong by a degree proportionate to the prevalence of this group in both states. The farther the states are, however, the more likely the correlation would attenuate: maybe the non-college whites in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio are pretty similar. But are they similar to their counterparts in PA? Maybe some of them, but not all. Still less so are they likely to be similar to those in GA or NC on the whole. So you will need some sort of socio-cultural understanding of how similar population groups are across polling units (i.e. states) to appreciate how likely the errors are to be correlated across different socio-economic-cultural groups.
The consequence of the correlated errors is somewhat similar to the fat tailed error problem that Taleb popularized and this is, essentially, what Silver is invoking: if the errors are more or less symmetric and correlated, you could see Trump or Harris capturing the correlated demographics across multiple states all at once, but not so likely that you’d see, say, MI and WI going in opposite directions. But thsi begs the question: are the fat tails likely to be symmetric? That is, are the “errors” likely to be equally distributed in both directions (or, in other words, they’ll all move in the same direction, but we know nothing about which direction they’ll move.) This seems unlikely, although I have nothing more than my gut (and, well, fairly cursory review of past election performances) to base this on. These “error” voters seem to abhor the status quo candidates: they went against Romney, HRC, and to a somewhat lesser degree, JRB. And Harris is being sold as as much of a status quo candidate as anyone can possibly be sold. So I don’t trust the claim that Silver is making, that these voters could move as a bundle in favor of Harris with a fairly high probability.
Making it all the more perplexing how GA flipped blue in 2020 while all the states surrounding it went deeper red than they were before
Giving the benefit of a very sizable doubt, Georgia had the unique factor of its high-profile nationally significant Senate races and their attendant money.
I don’t know. In 2016, I ran polling numbers (I had access to raw polling data through contacts at a polling organization) based on demograhic make up of different state, while the numbers I ran predicted a Trump win, I also predicted a blue GA–four years before it became reality. I can’t remember the details, but the demographics of GA was, even in 2016, quite different from that of, say, the Carolinas (my best guess based on less than ideal recollection is that there’s no real equivalent of the Atlanta metro in any of its neighboring states).
I’d say there are at least a couple of metros in Florida you could compare to Atlanta. Perhaps Nashville also. And Charlotte (since GA shares a border with NC too).
Not if you look at the demographic numbers. Georgia has a bit less than 11 million people, of which more than 6 million are in Atlanta metro. NC, in contrast, has just a little bit less a population (about 1/4 million less), but Charlotte metro area has less than 3 million people. Tennessee has around 7 million people, of whom 2 million are in Nashville metro area–so similar proportions as NC.
Florida is more urban than GA, but the more populated parts of the state, certainly: basically the southern half, is not really like GA in terms of their demographics. I’m willing to venture that even the culturally “Southern” parts of Florida, Jacksonville, Tallahassee, and so on, aren’t really like Atlanta metro area (Charlotte and Nashville probably are like Atlanta, but are much smaller proportionately, compared to the rest of the state.) These are not magnets that draw more “cosmopolitan” populations from all over the country, the way Atlanta, Nashville, and Charlotte are. (If one were to draw a comparison to cities in TN, I imagine they’d be more like Memphis than Nashville? As a personal note, I found it amusing that my favorite lady friend, from rural parts of Louisiana, likes Memphis, but thinks little of Nashville–it’s not really her kind of place, despite being nominally part of the South (she also didn’t think Missouri is really part of the South, whereas a friend and colleague from Kansas always thought Missouri was (still) deep in the heart of Confederacy (most of MO state gov’t seceded, but the feds kept control of most of the state’s real estate so the secession didn’t really happen)). That really does capture the gist of the demographic patterns behind the correlated (or not correlated) polling errors, though.
Re: Missouri (pronounced mizz-er-uh) from the perspective of an Iowan who vacationed in the Ozarks as a teen with my family/had an aunt and uncle who lived in St. Charles (suburb of St. Louis).
Both KC and St. Louis are fairly north, and skew Midwest but you will find lots of Southern you wouldn’t find in the Quaker state of Iowa. By the time you hit the Ozarks, it’s the South. Winter’s Bone is a film that covers some of this territory and is highly recommended.
I think Trump will win because the Republican advantage in the electoral college still stands. But it wouldn’t shock me if Harris won, I just think that’s a lower probability. I doubt there are many undecideds at this stage, but there may be a smaller contingent of “Meh” voters who won’t go third party but might be cajoled into voting for the less disliked major party candidate. Or they might stay home. Getting that group to vote for your candidate and energizing your already dedicated base will probably be the key to your candidate exceeding expectations. Trump could lose if his GOTV effort is mediocre. If it’s good enough he could win big.
> I think Trump will win because the Republican advantage in the electoral college still stands. But it wouldn’t shock me if Harris won, I just think that’s a lower probability.
Yerp. I think Trump has the higher probability of winning an election where the polls are basically tied.
I remember a few days ago either here or in Links, there was an item saying that if Harris loses, the Democratic elites will have some kind of existential crisis and the party will change its direction. I was skeptical because the same thing was supposed to happen after Clinton’s loss in 2016 and didn’t. But I’d like to find the item again. I spent about 1/2 hour looking for it unsuccessfully. I skimmed through all the Links and Water Cooler posts for the past week or so, but must have scrolled past it. Does anyone else remember it? Thanks.
If you’re thinking of the mental health crisis as TDS morphs into something even more serious, IM Doc spoke about what he’s been seeing, and at least one other commenter added a link to another source, here:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/10/links-10-17-2024.html#comment-4117120
I don’t recall any mention of the party changing direction, so maybe this isn’t the reference, though possibly I missed that as IMHO they have amply demonstrated they are unable to change direction.
Aha, yes, I just located the Tucker Carlson tweet* mentioning Mark Halperin in the 10/16 Water Cooler (see Democrats en Déshabillé), and I think IM Doc’s comment is related. I had previously not bothered clicking on the tweet. And OMG, it’s a two hour video, I can’t even. Maybe I’ll look at a clip or two from it though. Thanks!
* https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1846317509592399901
Signals from a Eurocrat. no paywall.
EU President Likens Free Speech to Infectious Disease
Ursula von der Leyen advocates “pre-bunking” in the public forum to “vaccinate” people against “disinformation.”
https://petermcculloughmd.substack.com/p/eu-president-likens-free-speech-to
She really is going full authoritarian, isn’t she? She wants total control of what information goes in and out the EU and to decide what is allowed. Most social media corporations are based in the US so it will be interesting to see her giving them orders about what they allow. Of course if Harris wins, she would cooperate with Ursula to do the same in the US.
I don’t know this John Leake or his work (linked essay) but I have to say that his credibility takes a big hit right from the first words of this piece when he says ‘EU President Ursula von der Leyen’. She is not the President of the EU; in fact, there is no such office. She is President of the European Commission, which is far from the same thing. But, if you’re going down that road, why not President of Europe?!? So much grander! OK, maybe in her mind that’s what she thinks she is — but Leake should know better. Is his error from ignorance or carelessness? Doesn’t matter; either is discrediting in a wannabe pundit.
Ursula talks about pre-bunking. The last time I heard that term in continuous use was around the Hunter Biden laptop and the MSM. / ;)
Re: Loss of Intelsat 33e
Fortune article says “explodes” but space DOT com more cautious, the latter noting another Intelsat 29 was lost in 2019. “That failure was pinned on either a meteoroid impact or a wiring flaw that led to an electrostatic discharge following heightened solar weather activity.”
The U.S. Space Force says it is tracking 20 pieces of debris from the satellite but the Russians are reporting up to 80. If the later, then the US Space Force has discredited itself already as a source of information.
Many fragments of 33e are being tracked. The rocket science term for this type of event is RUD – Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly. :)
#AllThingsHarris
#Michigan
Calling it now … she’s gonna lose MI.
#Polls
> Because some pollsters are weighting their surveys to a fairly fixed assumption about what the electorate will look like, including with regard to partisan makeup, it prevents numbers from moving as much as they might otherwise if the partisan makeup of their samples could float freely.
Yep, it’s known in data circles that most polls over-weight older respondents for simple fact that they are more likely to vote than younger respondents. And to that point, whatever happened to getting out the youth vote?! I find that in the Harris/Walz campaign, the youth vote is notable by its absence. Bernie’s two runs were chock full of 18-to-25’s. They were all over twitter posting selfies while getting out the vote.
I just took a quick minute to check X. There’s a #YouthForHarris hashtag that is getting very little traction. To be fair, I don’t see a similar hashtag for Trump either, although TPUSA I think has taken over the “youth wing” of Team Trump. Perhaps di yout’s have largely rejected both sides of the duopoly, in which case, the kids are gonna be alright.
However, I can’t see Harris/Walz winning battleground states without young people. Was it yesterday’s Links or WaterCooler that had a single story about a first time voter … who was for Trump. How far Dems have fallen since “Hope & Change” …
After Obama got in he took away all hope and Biden finished the job when he said that nothing will fundamentally change.
> Biden finished the job
“No empathy” Joe was true to his word …
Woke doesn’t pay the rent. Jimmy Dore and Christian Parenti, utube, ~5 minutes.
Young People May Be FORCED To Reject Wokeness! w/ Christian Parenti
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svqKJxIudCM
Thank you! Class! Class! Class! Once again, if one could wave their magic wand here, everyone would see each other as purple and then realize in an instant that the rich purple people sucked! LOL
The people whose job it is to sow division by race/ethnicity/religion are very good at their jobs.
This is not recent news but:
After backing him in 2020, a new poll shows some young voters are Biden’s to lose
https://www.npr.org/2024/06/05/nx-s1-4987296/young-voters-biden-gaza-inflation-abortion-trump-genforward-poll
Has Harris offered much to Gen Z that actually speaks to their concerns?
The photo in this article shows a bunch of Gen Z who might have been hopeful that the Dems would respond to their concerns about Israel/Gaza, but fast forward to the present and Harris has made clear that she is all-in on genocide. Looking at this image, even from earlier this year, it already feels quaint, harkening back to a more hopeful moment, when there was at least a possibility that Harris would propose a real course correction — and clearly that’s all out the window now.
Why does this matter? There will be 41 million Gen Z eligible to vote in this election, and a great many of them do not support genocide.
NC commenter @fjallstrom summed it up pretty well last week: “The party leadership has decided that getting the genocide done is more important than winning the election. They like to do both, but they won’t stop doing the genocide just to win the election so clearly doing the genocide has priority.”
We’ll soon find out how strong the TDS is amongst the Gen Z, but methinks it could be less than expected. The youngest Gen Z would have only been 11 years old when Trump was still in office.
Thank you! This lines up with my thoughts – Gen Z is genocide averse, so Dems aren’t really keen on making concessions or reaching out. More downward momentum for Harris/Walz!
Someone might want to remind James Carvel that: 1) Harris also lost to Biden. This self proclaimed “top-tier candidate” had to drop out of the primaries because she was going to come in fourth in her own state. I’d venture a guess she’d have lost a primary this time around too, had the Dems held one. And I’m pretty sure she’s not exactly packing them in now either. 2) IIRC, Clinton outspent Trump by a pretty wide margin in 2016. I also seem to recall various Blue insiders crowing about her machine being so good. Didn’t do her any good. Turns out all the advertising in the world won’t make the dogs eat the dog food. 3) The gut feelings of a Bill Clinton era relic don’t exactly strike me as a finger on the pulse type of reading.
IRC, Clinton outspent Trump by a pretty wide margin in 2016. I also seem to recall various Blue insiders crowing about her machine being so good. Didn’t do her any good. Turns out all the advertising in the world won’t make the dogs eat the dog food.
Two critiques on this comment:
1) The better example is actually Bloomberg, who spent a $hit ton of money in Florida to defeat Trump on Hilary’s behalf and who got absolutely nowhere (you could perhaps also use McConnell’s senate reelection a few years back to point out the same thing).
2) A key part your analysis is missing, I think, is that Trump didn’t actually need to spend much money last time, because he got so much “earned media” that dwarfed Clinton’s “paid media”. I am pretty sure, in fact, that this was his entire strategy.
This time around, he isn’t getting nearly the same coverage, and Harris is actually getting a lot of (un)earned media. Even the pictures of her are hilariously blatant–she is always taken in a presidential pose, standing or walking in front of Air Force One or whatever. In either case, the treatment of Trump this time compared to his first run are remarkably stark, and I think they may well tip the scales against him.
As an aside, I was in somebody else’s office today and just listening to their YouTube feed in the background. Apparently every single Astrologer, numerologist (is that a word), and crystal ball reader is convinced that Harris is going to win, regardless what the polls say. I’m curious what this means. Either:
1) My office mate’s history suggests to the algos that she is or wants to watch pro-Harris clips?
2) Astrologers’ clients lean Democrat (poor Nancy Regan must be spinning in her grave at the thought)
3) The Harris campaign is campaigning using very unorthodox methods
4) Trump’s fault, dear Brutus, is not in himself, but in the stars.
Either way, if Harris wins, I may need to go buy a constellation map
Ha! Thank you for this wonderful, thoughtful and left-field-fascinating comment!
The money ball game is well documented! Money can’t buy you
lovevotes!Astrology component is interesting indeed, so let me share the following. I grew up in a home where the women were astrology-curious to some degree, but this was Western astrology. As an adult, I found out through celebrating Chinese New Year about Chinese/Asian astrology, which is very different – year based, as opposed to month-based. Your comment made me look up what Chinese astrology has to say about the election, and this is the first thing I came across (via possibilitylane.com).
Excerpt:
So … :) We shall see whether the Western tradition or the Asian/Chinese tradition wins out here – the assumption being that your office mate is looking at Western astrologists.
#HashtagPopcorn
A challenge to my fellow commenters:
Can you listen to this entire (2min18s) clip of Kamala giving [words but in no way an answer] to a question in her latest sit-down event?
No pausing, gotta listen all the way through.
I cannot do more than 15s at a time.
It’s amazing to me that someone this profoundly incompetent is the candidate.
>>>It’s amazing to me that someone this profoundly incompetent is the candidate.
Incompetent? Maybe, she is competent in getting what she wants, which is whatever might fill in the emptiness inside her, that looks to be what gives her meaning, but incompetent in doing what she should be because it has no meaning for her.
Oh Heaven save us. I just realized that Kamala Harris is a Chauncey Gardner style candidate!
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Being_There
That would make Biden the corpse in the coffin as the pall bears are arguing who could be made the next Presidential candidate while they are carrying his coffin.
I didn’t have any problem with it – possibly it was easy because the question which was being responded to was not part of the sound bite – my vote for Dr. Stein has already been counted and I do not consider myself a supporter of Kamala – although of course it depends on the question “compared to what?” – as a resident of a nonbattleground state I could be completely sure that I was not “throwing my vote away.”
I don’t consider the response to be incompetent – it is “fit for purpose” in the sense that people listen to it and her supporters applaud. Political talking is not for conveying information, but for arousing feelings – it is another form of advertising. Does Trump speak in a way that is “profoundly competent”? In the sense that matters, yes – his supporters applaud.
Why is Liz Cheney there sitting beside her?
Oh, this is why. Due Dissidence guys, utube, ~14+ minutes.
Liz Cheney JOINS KAMALA For SAD Swing State Suburban Tour
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACHKzBBL96A
Liz Cheney representing RINOs for Kamala?
It’s a new Marvel Super Villan. Enter RINOK, the Betrayer!
Still gunning for those suburban moderate Republicans, and they enlisted Liz Cheney to help.
“Too close to call”, YMMV, etc. etc. Looking forward to the postmortem…
Right. Liz Cheney lost her last House race in an overwhelming landslide against her in GOP Wyoming. / heh. From 2022:
Cheney’s loss may be the second worst for a House incumbent in 60 years
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/17/politics/liz-cheney-worst-defeat-house-incumbent/index.html
To prove that both black and white rich ladies approve of war and genocide. Clap. Clap. Clap.
Because if Harris wins, Cheney gets a plum position.
If Harris loses, Cheney gets to run in some later election as somebody who can work with both parties, and she was never going to get anywhere fast with Trump in the presidency, anyway.
What’s the downside to her strategy? (I don’t mean this rhetorically–I ask it in all sincerity)
The buzz on Harris Twitter seems to be Trump fondling a girl at an event. Their manufactured October surprise? I can’t wait for this campaign to be over. Democrats even in victory aren’t going to shut up about Trump forever. Sigh.
…because all prior attempts to nail Trump on some indiscretion worked out so well ?
I’m waiting for the headline in the Enquirer: “Trumps KGB ‘Handler’ Tells All!”
I think it’s this story up on the Guardian today. [Posted above also]
“A former model who says she met Donald Trump through the late sexual abuser Jeffrey Epstein has accused the former president of groping and sexually touching her in an incident in Trump Tower in 1993, in what she believed was a “twisted game” between the two men.”
Here is something from the “blackmagicf*ckery” subreddit called “Black Makeup F*ckery”. It looks too real to me to be AI DeepFake, but I could be wrong.
If it really is real, then is this a skill that many normal people could learn? Would these made-up faces spoof or jam facial recognition technology?
https://www.reddit.com/r/blackmagicfuckery/comments/1gank8w/black_makeup_fuckery/