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2:00PM Water Cooler 10/3/2024

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Extremely patient readers, I’m afraid brunch got utterly out of control. So this is quite skeletal, although I will add in as much as I can, as fast as I can! In the meantime, talk amongst yourselves! –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Blue Mockingbird, along the canal, Oaxaca, MX (17,2, -96,751), Etla, Oaxaca, Mexico.

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In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Trump and the Jack Smith brief.
  2. Boeing and Longshoremen strikes.
  3. UCLA tools up.

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)

“Take him out”?!?

See Stoller in 2017, “On Mocking Dying Working Class White People.” Liberal Democrats have been wishing death on their political enemies for some time. Now they yuk it up on daytime television.

2024

Less than forty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

This week’s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn’t turn the tide either. Despite the micturition and lamentation (very much including my own) about the Trump campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, “2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP” on the issues) do note the steady deterioration in Kamala’s position in the (aggregated) top battlegrounds. (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.

“Battleground States Wrap-Up: Race Remains Effectively Tied” [RealClearPolling]. “The latest round of swing state polling indicates that neither Trump nor Harris has made significant gains in the swing states. In the RealClearPolitics Average of the Top Battleground States, the race is again a dead-even tie, meaning any small changes in the race over the next month could decide who wins the presidency. If these RCP Averages hold until Election Day, the race will be incredibly close. As the RCP No Toss-Up Map shows, if the election were decided by the current averages, Trump would win with 281-257 electoral votes. However, the outcome hinges on Pennsylvania, where Trump leads by just 0.1 points, leaving the election a toss-up with a little over a month to go until Election Day.” • Then again–

If I turn all the leans Red or Blue at 270toWin, but give Harris North Carolina (based on Helene depressing Republican turnout in Western North Carolina (“Events, dear boy. Events”)), Harris wins, making — to my dismay — Pennsylvania irrelevant:

(Then again, if Michigan goes red, and Trump wins Pennsylvania, Trump wins.)

“Investors turn to volatility trades to profit from tight US election” [Financial Times]. “[T]he tight race means trading volatility is seen as a safer bet than trying to guess which stocks or sectors will do well from a victory for former president Donald Trump or vice-president Kamala Harris. ‘Our base case is still that this is basically a toss-up, and most clients have coalesced around the same view,’ said Stuart Kaiser, head of US equity trading strategy at Citi. ‘If you talk to a client who thinks it’s 60-40 in favour of Trump, you could talk about owning bank stocks. If you think Kamala is more likely to win, trading a basket makes sense,’ he added. ‘But if you think it’s 50-50, it will be very hard to trade directionally, it’s more of a vol trade.’ Trading volatility typically requires investors to use more complicated derivatives trades, leading to a range of complex strategies with names such as ‘straddles’ and ‘collars’ that involve buying and selling several derivatives tied to individual stocks or an index such as the S&P 500.”

“October surprises are piling up, but a toss-up race seems impervious to shocks” [CNN]. “The White House is grappling with three challenges that could threaten the vice president’s hopes and offer an opening to the Republican nominee’s narrative of Biden-era negligence. A month before Election Day, the US faces the grave possibility of being dragged into a Middle East conflagration; a port workers’ strike could harm inflation-weary consumers; and political pressure is rising in the fallout of Hurricane Helene. Trump, meanwhile, was hit on Wednesday by the unsealing of a 165-page document in which special counsel Jack Smith gives the fullest picture of his case in the federal 2020 election interference case. The ex-president has pleaded not guilty, but the filing re-injected his attempt to steal the last election into the frantic endgame of a campaign partially shaped by Democrats’ claims he poses an existential threat to American democracy. Each situation highlights potential vulnerabilities for both candidates as voters make up their minds. The trio of tests facing Harris comes with potential economic, political and humanitarian consequences if the administration errs. And the new scrutiny of Trump’s behavior after the 2020 election could cause some voters to again question his fitness for the Oval Office.”

* * *

Kamala (D): “Opinion: Vance is right. Harris and Walz are a threat to Americans’ free speech” [Jonathan Turley, USA Today]. On “fire in a croweded theatre: “[Walz] cited a case in which socialists Charles Schenck and Elizabeth Baer were arrested and convicted of violating the Espionage Act of 1917. Their ‘crime’ was to pass out flyers in opposition to the military draft during World War I. Schenck and Baer called on their fellow citizens not to ‘submit to intimidation’ and to ‘assert your rights.’ They argued, ‘If you do not assert and support your rights, you are helping to deny or disparage rights which it is the solemn duty of all citizens and residents of the United States to retain.’ They also described the military draft as ‘involuntary servitude.’ Holmes used his ‘fire in a theater’; line to justify the abusive conviction and incarceration. At the House hearing, when I was trying to explain that the justice later walked away from the line and Schenck was effectively overturned in 1969 in Brandenburg v. Ohio, [Rep. Dan Goldman, D-N.Y.] cut me off and said, ‘We don’t need a law class here.’ In the vice presidential debate, Walz showed that he and other Democratic leaders most certainly do need a class in First Amendment law.”

Kamala (D): “VP Kamala Harris announces 100% reimbursement of local Helene response costs during remarks in Augusta” [WABE]. “Vice President Kamala Harris announced Wednesday that President Joe Biden has approved Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s request for 100% reimbursement of local costs of responding to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene during remarks in Augusta, Georgia. Harris said the federal reimbursement will cover costs for services like food, water and shelter provided by local governments, debris removal and emergency services.” • Meanwhile–

Kamala (D):

But:

And:

I am not certain that $750 will be the entire payment. Nevertheless, directionally this is correct: The empire matters orders of magnitude more to our ruling class than the domestic population (though is not at all the way a MAGA voter would express the matter). On the bright side, I can put the $750 against the $600 Biden still owes me, so I come out ahead!

Kamala (D): “Tim Walz’s Long Game Will Pay Off” [The Nation]. “The classic example of a slow-fuse debate moment that ended up having an impact is Gerald Ford’s famous gaffe in his 1976 debate with Jimmy Carter. Fending off critiques that his foreign policy was indifferent to the oppression of the USSR, Ford declared, “I don’t believe that the Poles consider themselves dominated by the Soviet Union.” Ford’s point was a subtle one: that even under Soviet rule, Poles had a spirit of resistance. But his wording made it sound like he was flippantly disregarding Soviet imperial domination of Eastern Europe…. Over the next few days, the full import of Ford’s words began to sink in, especially after they were highlighted over and over again in press coverage. The fact that Ford, far from clarifying his remarks, stubbornly dug in only made matters worse. Ford lost crucial days in an election and solidified his reputation as an out-of-touch oaf…. Tuesday’s debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz is likely to play out with the same slow-fuse dynamic…. The instant polling done after the debate shows that it was basically a wash…. But even these poll numbers should be treated as preliminary, because Walz very smartly played a long game in the debate…. The key to Walz’s strategy was not to go after Vance directly (since very few voters care about the vice president); rather, Walz got Vance to commit himself to one of Trump’s most unpopular actions, inciting the January 6 attack on the Capitol (Walz’s damning “non-answer”). The Harris campaign is right to focus on this exchange. Even more than Gerald Ford’s Poland gaffe, it’s an error that illuminates—in an easy-to-understand way—everything wrong with a candidate. Vance’s comments show not just his own moral cravenness but also the way Trump has bullied all those who work with him into accepting the Big Lie about the 2024 campaign. If the Harris campaign and its surrogates keep pushing this clip, they can bog down the Trump campaign for days if not weeks in defending the indefensible.” • Hmm. An old debate strategy called sand-bagging, although in this case the blow lands after the debate is over. Should be happening already, with only 33 days to go.

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Trump (R) (Smith/Chutkan): “One Month Before Election Day, Judge Chutkan Allows Jack Smith to Broadcast His Evidence” [Andrew McCarthy, National Review]. “Smith has argued, preposterously, that ‘the public‘ — by which he means Democrats — has a right to a speedy trial because of the importance of the Trump cases. To the contrary, the Constitution gives only the defendant a speedy-trial right, which defendants may and frequently do waive if they need more time to prepare their defense (also a constitutional right). The public has an interest in a just trial, not a prompt one — and there is nothing just about prosecutors’ filing four indictments against their party’s political rival with the objective of trying him before Election Day in a manner that gives him inadequate time to prepare for trial, let alone prepare for four trials…. And as for the asserted importance of the cases, it lies in their political consequence (if any), which is a factor that prosecutors and judges are not supposed to weigh; there are unambiguous Justice Department rules to this effect. For the umpteenth time, this is not to minimize Trump’s activities in connection with the 2020 election — the stop-the-steal scheme and the Capitol riot (for which I’ve repeatedly said Trump was rightly impeached, and should have been convicted and disqualified from future office; and over which I’ve repeatedly argued that Republicans were nuts to nominate him, as opposed to a more nationally viable candidate who, by now, would be ten points up against Kamala Harris). It is to stress that is not a legitimate law-enforcement or judicial priority to force a pre-election trial of those charges.” • On the Smith brief FWIW:

Case for the defense (though last I checked, Rasmussen was a polling operation, so what’s up with this?

Trump (R) (Smith/Chutkan): “11 damning details in Jack Smith’s new brief in the Trump election case” [Politico]. “Much of Smith’s brief focused on Trump’s state of mind in the weeks leading up to the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Smith described a slew of conversations suggesting that the then-president knew his claims of election fraud were spurious. And Smith laid out evidence that Trump’s sole objective was to stay in power — not, as he and his lawyers have claimed, to exercise legitimate authority over election integrity.”

Trump (R): “Trump calls Jack Smith filing ‘pure election interference’ ” [NewsNation]. “Former President Donald Trump called the unsealing of documents in his election interference case by special counsel Jack Smith a “weaponization of the government” during an exclusive interview with NewsNation on Wednesday in Houston, Texas. The Republican nominee was at a private fundraiser when he told NewsNation’s Ali Bradley that Smith is a ‘deranged person’ following the dismissal of his separate classified documents case in July. ‘This was a weaponization of the government … and released 30 days before the election,’ Trump said of Wednesday’s developments. ‘My poll numbers have gone up instead of down. It is pure election interference.’ The interview came after prosecutors, in a court filing unsealed Wednesday, said Trump “resorted to crimes” after losing the 2020 election by disregarding the advice of his vice president and other aides.”

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Trump (R): “Trump floats deporting legal Haitian migrants living in Ohio” [Axios]. “Trump, speaking to NewsNation in Houston, Texas, said he would revoke the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitian immigrants and ‘bring them back to their country.’ ‘In my opinion, it’s not legal. It’s not legal for anybody to do,’ Trump said. TPS is a federal program that allows migrants from some countries to legally live in the United States for a certain period when the conditions in their home country are unsafe. Migrants from Haiti, Afghanistan, Ukraine and Venezuela are among some countries eligible for the program, requiring participants to re-register with the Department of Homeland Security each year. Haitians have been included in the TPS program since January 22, 2010, following a 7.0 magnitude earthquake that killed around 220,000 people.” • For some definition of “legal.” 2010 seems like rather a long time ago.

Trump (R): “Melania Trump says she forced Donald to drop hardline immigration policy” [Guardian]. “Regarding child separations, she continues [in her book]: ‘While I support strong borders, what was going on at the border was simply unacceptable. I immediately addressed my deep concerns with Donald regarding the family separations, emphasizing the trauma it was causing these families. As a mother myself, I stressed: ‘The government should not be taking children away from their parents.’ I communicated with great clarity … ‘This has to stop.’ ‘Donald assured me that he would investigate the issue, and on 20 June, he announced the end of the family separation policy.’ The first lady’s intervention was reported at the time.”

* * *

Kennedy (I): “Exclusive: Multiple Women Claiming Romantic Relationships With RFK Jr. Threaten His Standing in Trump Orbit” [Mediate]. “At least three women are claiming to have had romantic relationships with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in just the last year, as he pursued a long-shot bid for the presidency, Mediaite has learned.” Well, “three” is “multiple,” so. More: “Kennedy has long been dogged by allegations of infidelity…. In an interview with The New York Sun, several days after Mediaite first reached out to Kennedy for comment, he was asked about the news of his alleged relationship with Nuzzi. He declined to speak about that specific story, but joked to his host, ‘I have so many skeletons in my closet, if they could vote I’d be king of the world.'”

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“Abortion Rights, Elections, Criminal Justice, and Much More: The 2024 State Ballot Issues to Watch” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. ” This year, 41 states have at least one measure on the ballot for voters to weigh in on, and many have multiple measures. The highest-profile issue on the ballot this year—as was the case in 2022 and 2023—is abortion. In all, 10 states have pro-abortion rights measures on the ballot, including such purple and red states as Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota. Nebraska also has an anti-abortion measure on the ballot.” • Enormous roundup of all the state ballots.

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CA: “Federal judge stops implementation of California misinformation law” [Courthouse News]. “A federal judge ruled Wednesday that California’s law prohibiting altered election-related communications doesn’t pass constitutional scrutiny and the state can’t enforce it. The decision by U.S. District Senior Judge John Mendez to issue a preliminary injunction is a win for Christopher Kohls, known online as “Mr. Reagan,” who argued in his lawsuit that Assembly Bill 2839 made computer-generated parody illegal. Assemblymember Gail Pellerin, a Santa Cruz Democrat, wrote the law banning digitally manipulated communications, like mailers and video ads, that are false or misleading and target an election worker, elected official, voting equipment or people running for office four months before an election. People who receive such content would be able to seek damages from the distributor. Kohls, who has some 360,000 YouTube subscribers, calls political satire a fundamental First Amendment right. His suit is similar to one filed Monday in federal court by conservative humor website The Babylon Bee, which targeted two bills, one of them being AB 2839. ‘We are gratified that the district court agreed with our analysis that new technologies do not change the principles behind First Amendment protections,’ Theodore Frank, one of Kohls’ attorneys, said in a statement.”

MI: “Haunted by 2016, some Michigan Democrats worry that Harris remains ill-defined in swing state” [Associated Press]. “Democrats in the state have seemed ascendant since [2016], controlling the governorship, both Senate seats and the state legislature. But some party leaders here are worried that trend is not enough to put distance between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris’ campaign is banking on the fact that they have spent considerably more money than Trump on ads and have a stronger voter outreach program. Michigan is a state that Harris almost certainly must win to capture the White House, and Democrats’ concerns are rooted in the fear that polls don’t register all Trump supporters both here and in other battleground states as the campaign enters a critical final phase.” And the Muslim/Uncommitted vote: “The death of a Dearborn resident, who Dingell and other community leaders this week said was killed in south Lebanon, has only ignited anger in the traditionally Democratic area. Kamel Ahmad Jawad’s death was confirmed Wednesday by a spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council…. Harris may overcome divisions within the Democratic coalition by boosting voter turnout in Wayne County, home to Detroit, where low turnout in 2016 contributed to Clinton’s loss. Black community leaders noted that excitement surged when Harris entered the race in the summer, and that some momentum continues in the majority-Black city of Eastpointe, just north of Detroit.” Interestingly: “‘Democrats’ financial resources absolutely dwarf anything that the Republicans have,’ said former Republican Michigan Gov. John Engler. “But Trump is making stops in locations that have never had presidential visits before, and those are impactful with margins this close.”

NC: “How Will Hurricane Helene Affect This Wildly Close Election?” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. On North Carolina: “Obviously people who have lost homes or other possessions to high winds and (especially) flooding and/or who lack power or other essentials for an extended period of time are especially dependent on emergency assistance and may be grateful if it arrives expeditiously. Beyond for those immediately affected, the perceived competence and compassion of government entities dealing with disaster relief and recovery efforts can affect how voters assess those in office, particularly in a high-profile situation like that created by Helene. An American Enterprise Institute study of [Hurricane] Sandy suggested that the Obama administration’s response to the storm was a major factor in the incumbent’s ability to win late deciders in 2012, topped by this finding: ‘Fully 15 percent of the electorate rated Obama’s hurricane response as the most important factor in their vote.’ At the other end of the spectrum, the George W. Bush administration’s tardy, confused, and seemingly indifferent response to the calamity of Hurricane Katrina in August and September of 2005 had an enduringly negative effect on perceptions of his presidency, even though it occurred nowhere close to a national election, as Reid Wilson explained… While FEMA and HUD are typically the federal agencies most involved in disaster response and recovery, presidential leadership in a disaster always gets attention, too, and the risk of negative publicity or graphic displays of unmet needs won’t go away immediately. Bureaucratic backlogs in distributing funds and approving applications for assistance could cause voter unhappiness long after the initial damage is addressed. The bottom line is that barring unexpected developments or a major series of screwups in the federal response, Hurricane Helene is likely to mark a big moment in the lives of people in and near the areas of devastation but probably won’t much affect their voting behavior. Obviously the campaigns and their allies will need to adjust their get-out-the-vote operations and show some sensitivity to the suffering of people whose lives were turned upside down. We can only hope the election itself and its aftermath don’t add violence and trauma to the damage done.” • These questions can be answered empirically, at least in North Carolina, by reporting on roads being open, precincts open, and people’s reactions generally. Of course, the press would have to go outside Asheville to do this, so answers seem unlikely.

PA: “In the presidential election’s most important state, the race is a dead heat” [Brookings]. “In 2024, all roads lead to Pennsylvania, the largest of the seven swing states. In all probability, the winner of the state will win the election. It is the state that each candidate can least afford to lose. If Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania as well as Michigan and Wisconsin, she will have 270 electoral votes, whatever happens in the contested southern and southwestern states. If Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania as well as Georgia and North Carolina, he will have 270 electoral votes, whatever happens in the southwest or the upper Midwest… Harris’ path to victory in Pennsylvania faces a key hurdle: The Democratic advantage in voter registration has continued the erosion that began right after the Obama surge of 2008. Since 2020, the Democratic edge has been cut in half, from 686,000 to just 343,000, while Republican and Independent registration has continued to increase. As a share of the total electorate, Republican registration rose from 39.0% in 2020 to 40.2% this year while the Democratic share fell from 46.5% to 44.1%, reducing the Democratic edge from 7.5 points to 3.9 points.”

PA: “Another ‘Hard Tie’ in the Race for President in PA” [RealClearPennsylvania]. “Independent voters say that Trump would be better for their personal finances by a 50–38% margin. Since the top issue for all voters remains the economy, that’s advantage Trump. The next most important issue to voters is threats to democracy, followed by immigration. Pennsylvania is on a razor’s edge in both the presidential and Senate races.” • Interesting, that #2.

Realignment and Legitimacy

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: At last, the wastewater data looks improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Back to School” bullet, at least at the national level. The wastewater drop is reinforced by the positivity numbers as well.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC September 23 Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC September 28 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 21

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data October 1:

National [6] CDC September 7:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens September 30: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 26:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC September 9: Variants[10] CDC September 9:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 21: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 21:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Much less intense!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.

[10] (Travelers: Variants).

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US rose by 6,000 from the previous week to 225,000 on the period ending September 28th, surpassing market expectations of 220,000 to mark a new three-week high. The rise in claims kept initial counts above the averages recorded earlier this year, reinforcing the trend of a softening labor market and supporting predictions that the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts in each remaining decision this year.”

Employment SItuation: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” [Trading Economics]. “US employers announced 72,821 job cuts in September 2024, slightly down from 75,891 in August, but 53% higher than 47,457 a year earlier. Technology announced the most job cuts….”

Manufacturing: “United States Factory Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for US manufactured goods eased by 0.2% from the previous month to $590.4 billion in August of 2024, trimming the downwardly revised 4.9% jump in the previous month, and missing forecasts that it would have remained unchanged.”

* * *

“Everyone Is Getting the Dockworkers Strike All Wrong” [Salon]. “Yes, it’s a story about modern-day labor anxieties and union leverage—but it’s also about something far more complex than your typical workers-vs.-bosses toss-up…. But the dockworkers of today have to be skilled, knowledgeable, and dexterous enough to ensure that the incoming freight trucks, the hefty equipment, the potentially hazardous cargo, and the boats themselves operate safely and smoothly throughout all steps of the process… That premium on skill and labor, added to the union’s historic strength, makes these dockworkers ‘the highest-paid blue-collar workers in the country,’ as the American Prospect notes… The main sticking point, however, is displacement. The business interests in charge of the ports want to embed more self-propelling technology within dock work, whether that constitutes automated trucks, gates, or cranes. This trend has taken off at dozens of ports across the world. Still, multiple studies and real-world examples have shown that full or semi-automation does not actually do much to reduce costs or increase efficiency at the docks, although in certain applications, it can help to ensure human safety. And therein lies another primary conflict about tech at the docks: The Maritime Alliance is interested in leaving some leeway for automation, but the dockworkers want absolutely none. The work may be grueling, but it’s among the few organized blue-collar professions that can offer its employees a solid lifestyle and dignity.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Jet Catches Fire Before Takeoff, Prompting Airport Closure” [Men’s Journal]. “Almost 200 travelers were evacuated from a Boeing jet as walls of flames spewed from one of the engines, video shared to X (formerly Twitter) shows. The incident occurred early on Wednesday morning at Italy’s Brindisi Airport shortly before a Boeing 737 operated by Ryanair was scheduled to take off. Smoke filled the cabin as crews quickly responded and evacuated the jet, but not before one passenger captured footage of the flames licking the plane’s window.” • Whoops. (Reuters mentions “fumes.”)

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s Frail Finances Give Strikers All the Power” [Bloomberg]. “The company is in a dire financial position, burning through billions of dollars of cash and teetering at the edge of having its credit rating cut to junk. The company has floated the idea of raising $10 billion or more by selling shares, which wouldn’t happen until the strike is resolved. The approximately 33,000 machinists on strike know this. Time is on their side. … Boeing needs to reach a deal with its striking workers and crank up aircraft production. The backlog of aircraft orders is piling up. This is cash and financial relief just waiting to be unlocked. No doubt a hefty pay raise will squeeze future profit margins, but it’s unlikely the company, being in such as weakened state, can outlast the determination of its workers…. It’s time for new Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg to settle this strike and begin to repair labor relations. Without buy-in from its workforce, the company can’t begin to change a factory-floor culture that had eroded on safety and quality to the point where the Federal Aviation Administration had to intervene.”

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 67 Greed (previous close: 68 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 68 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 3 at 1:53:13 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

Surely not?

Gallery

For Alma-Tadema stans, thread worth reading in full:

Groves of Academe

“Students and faculty object to UCLA’s purchase of more military hardware” [Los Angeles Public Press]. “The University of California Regents approved the purchase of military equipment at September’s UC Regents meeting at UCLA. The unanimous vote took place behind closed doors while the UCLA Police Department (UCPD), dressed in riot gear, forced those who came to give public comment outside of the building. The approved purchases include 3,000 rounds of pepper munitions, 500 rounds of 40mm impact munitions, 12 drones, and nine less-lethal launchers across six University of California campuses.” • Oh.

News of the Wired

No:

Make that holder coin-operated, and you’ve got a rentier’s cup.

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

TH writes: “This is one of those that might drive you crazy. Vertical lines are correct and even the horizontal railing is good, but the breakwater just above it gives an illusion of off-kilterness (word?).” Readers?

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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16 comments

  2. Wukchumni

    ,rades,

    Ukraine College Los Angeles now fielding team of drones-loitering munitions, as all the cool kids are calling them now.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    “Students and faculty object to UCLA’s purchase of more military hardware” [Los Angeles Public Press]. “The University of California Regents approved the purchase of military equipment at September’s UC Regents meeting at UCLA. The unanimous vote took place behind closed doors while the UCLA Police Department (UCPD), dressed in riot gear, forced those who came to give public comment outside of the building. The approved purchases include 3,000 rounds of pepper munitions, 500 rounds of 40mm impact munitions, 12 drones, and nine less-lethal launchers across six University of California campuses.”

    Reply ↓
    1. IM Doc

      We have gone a long way since the Barney Fife like character loitering around campus in a policeman uniform – that was security in my day.

      Lord have mercy.

      Reply ↓
  3. Screwball

    It was discussed a little in Links this morning, but further reading tells me; FEMA is running out of money according to their head guy. He said they don’t have enough to cover more storms that may be coming. I also read where congress might have to go into session to allocate more.

    I can only imagine the political hay made over this. Both parties will blame each other, as usual, while people suffer. It makes no sense, and it is infuriating. Get help to those who need, not tomorrow, now. Quit with all the BS and do something for a change.

    These people make my blood boil.

    Reply ↓
  5. Mark Gisleson

    Not hard to see anti-Dockworker social media given how their union president chooses to display himself. It bothered me, then half a minute later I thought about all the money those salaries and paychecks are injecting into the surrounding community.

    Would people still love Robin Hood if he was always depicted as well-groomed and wearing jewelry? I think they would.

    Loved reading about the special military contract that ensures munitions continue to move through the port even as food and medical supplies pile up.

    Pay the workers. It’s not like the employers ever completely honor those contracts. They’ll claw some back later and that won’t be in the news.

    Full disclosure: former URW 310 member (now USW 310), currently CBD 420 in good standing.

    Reply ↓
    1. lyman alpha blob

      Not amused at all by all the news today claiming how well the dockworkers are already paid. So they make 100K – unless they have a significant other making that much too, they still won’t be able to afford a house in the port city I live in. I don’t make that much but I’d like to. We don’t need these blatant attempts to inflame envy and jealousy.

      Instead, Solidarity!

      Reply ↓
  7. lyman alpha blob

    RE: 11 Damning Details

    Maybe they are “damning” if you’re a Trump-deranged Politico writer but they come off as bluster to me, which last I checked is not illegal.

    Like millions of other people, I’m pretty sick of having my intelligence insulted on a daily basis by these morons. Jack Smith is dumber than a bag full of Alvin Braggs. DoJ is in need of department wide brain transplants. Oh, there is no non-fatal brain transplant procedure you say….

    Reply ↓
  9. marym

    “I am not certain that $750 will be the entire payment”

    I don’t know if $750 is a reasonable amount (probably not) for its intended purpose; if the process to get it, or any other assistance, is bureaucratically convoluted (it always is); if Biden-Harris are “fighting for” more; or if it’s by statute or executive decision, but it’s not the only federal money people or states get in a disaster.

    Anyway: Below are links to some stuff they said they were “fighting for;” some rule change proposals that may be part of a “fight;” and what FEMA says has been spent on Maui assistance.

    https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20240119/biden-harris-administration-reforms-disaster-assistance-program-help
    https://www.regulations.gov/document/FEMA-2023-0005-0001
    https://www.fema.gov/fact-sheet/one-year-later-maui-wildfire-recovery-continues-nearly-3-billion-federal-support

    I agree that directionally the criticism is correct.

    Reply ↓
  10. hk

    If Turley had a sense of ironic humor, he’d have responded to Goldman cutting him off by saying “Of course. Heil Hitler.” But, I suppose that would be a too dangerous thing to try…..

    Reply ↓

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