2:00PM Water Cooler 10/4/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Blue Mockingbird, Carretera Federal 196, Guerrero, MX (17.465, -100.166), Atoyac de Álvarez, Guerrero, Mexico.

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In Case You Might Miss…

1. New RCP chart (it’s tied) and newCovid charts (not worsening).
2. Boeing strike continues; Warren and Blumenthal call for criminal investigations of executives.
3. Kamala to throw Khan, Gensler under the bus (ka-ching).

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Biden Administration

I apologize for this enormous thread, but it’s important. McGurk is a loony:

(Hümeyra Pamuk is Reuters’ deputy US foreign policy editor.)

“The disappearing Bidens: A quiet end to a presidency” [Axios]. “Joe Biden’s visit to the storm-ravaged states in the South this week was an event that’s become increasingly rare for the president: a public appearance. Biden hasn’t scheduled public events in 43 of the 75 days since he dropped his re-election bid, a reflection of the 81-year-old president’s unpopularity and age limitations as he approaches his last three months in office. Vice President Kamala Harris — who has praised Biden but doesn’t routinely talk about him in her speeches — has had just one campaign event with him along with a few official events in Washington. First Lady Jill Biden also has largely withdrawn from campaign events, and Harris’ team hasn’t pushed for her to do them, people familiar with the matter told Axios. Since dropping out on July 21, Joe Biden has scheduled just two public appearances before 11am, none before 10am, and five after 5pm, according to an Axios analysis of Biden’s schedules.” • But maybe Biden’s too busy running the country [hollow laughter]. (Both the popular Guns of August and the scholarly The Sleepwalkers point out that most of the European monarchs were on vacation in August 1914. The monarchs may have been fools (especially Czar Nicholas and Kaiser Wilhelm) but the bureaucratic underlings left in charge of the various chancelleries were even bigger fools, and warmongers, too. Making, in my mind, the interregnum between a functioning Biden administration and election day quite dangerous, and perhaps increasingly dangerous.)

2024

Less than forty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error, Trump gained a few inches of ground in the trench warfare (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

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Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris’s Wall Street charm offensive begins to pay off” [Financial Times]. “Two finance executives close to Harris said she had reassured them that she could appoint new officials to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Trade Commission who would take a less aggressive stance than current respective chairs Gary Gensler and Lina Khan.” • That’s nice.

Kamala (D): “Do Americans Really Want a ‘Politics of Joy’?” [Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal]. “Were I a Harris supporter I would be concerned about these things: The first is so obvious it barely needs saying, but with a month to go should be said again. She still hasn’t given voters a satisfying sense of what she is about, what the purpose of her political career is…. Her campaign has placed too many chips on the idea of the mood, the vibe, the picture. “She’s bringing us a politics of joy,” Gov. Tim Walz said, again, in his summation the other night in the vice-presidential debate. But look, “the politics of joy” didn’t help Hubert Humphrey when he used exactly those words in his announcement for the presidency in April 1968. The country was becoming undone by Vietnam and he was talking about . . . joy? It made no one smile or feel inspired except his opponent, Richard Nixon…. If I were a Trump supporter I would be worried about what Trump supporters have worried about since he came down the escalator, that he is squandering it away every day. Voters and observers have spent a decade saying “he’s getting crazier,” “he’s going too far,” and they’re always right and are right now. He’s selling $100,000 watches and having Truth Social meltdowns, free-associating about movies and dribbling away arguments. Ms. Harris insists almost to the point of credibility that the Biden-Harris administration didn’t let the border be overwhelmed, the Biden-Harris administration tried to control the border and put forward the toughest bill and Donald Trump stopped it. And she’s getting away with it! With the Jan. 6 filings released this week, his focus is sure to return to the endless murk and mire of personal grievance.” • I’m going to quote myself because [lambert preens] I’m chuffed at having gotten to the same space well before Nooners: “[E]very moment Trump takes to hawk [family blogging] watches is a moment taken away from the campaign trail. And the campaign trail is not a place go skipping along, hither and yon, dancing and singing la-di-da, and stopping to smell the flowers (or watches, as the case may be). If there’s anything ‘weird’ about the Trump campaign — leaving aside the professional deformations of the right — behavior like this is it. Have some respect for the base!” Well worth a read, as the O.G.s usually are.

Kamala (D): Cheneygasm:

It's amazinghttps://t.co/6qbdq7Zvxx

— Nate Hochman (@njhochman) October 4, 2024

We always used to chastise Democrats for moving right, because why would people vote for a fake Republican when they could vote for a real one? We never anticipated that the Democrats would actually become Republicans, or Republicans Democrats. With all that entails.

Liz Cheney does have to do this. She can’t just go on with her life. Her family fortune is in Halliburton, which has hitched its financial star to the tune of billions to the fate of Ukraine. https://t.co/414Cw9qUXR pic.twitter.com/ho0q96oUad

— Mike Benz (@MikeBenzCyber) October 4, 2024

Weird. And speaking of Liz Cheney–

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Trump (R): He’s not wrong, is he?

Sincere question for Democrats:
Trump says Liz Cheney is a "stupid war hawk who just wants to shoot missiles at people."
Harris says Liz Cheney's endorsement is a "profound honor."
Which position is correct? https://t.co/0ik9jSC44a

— Nathan J Robinson (@NathanJRobinson) October 4, 2024

Trump (R): “Trump losing ground with women on economy, poll shows” [Politico]. “An American University poll, shared first with POLITICO, found that a majority of women trust Harris over Trump to address inflation and bring down the cost of living. Another 46 percent prefer Harris over Trump to handle the economy, while 38 percent prefer Trump on it. Nearly two-thirds of the women surveyed said inflation and the economy were the most important issue for them as they decided on their vote. The economy remains a weak point for Democrats entering the final month of the campaign. One of Trump’s most enduring strengths is voters’ view of his leadership on the issue, which was even more pronounced when President Joe Biden led the Democratic ticket. But since Harris took over in July, the vice president has chipped away at Trump’s lead on the economy. In the poll, which surveyed more than 800 registered female voters in September, women said they are feeling better about the economy overall. More than 60 percent of suburban women said they felt pessimistic about the economy when surveyed in 2023 and 2022, but that fell to 40 percent in the poll’s latest data. Still, nearly two-thirds of women said their personal financial situation had gotten worse in recent years.” • Hmm.

Trump (R): “The reasons people say they leave Donald Trump’s rallies early” [WaPo]. “The Republican presidential nominee consistently draws large, enthusiastic and rowdy crowds to his rallies and other campaign events, and at nearly all of them, another trend is clear: Scores of people leave early. Most stay. But Trump often runs late and goes long, prompting many to bow out because of other responsibilities, priorities or, sometimes, waning patience and interest, according to Washington Post interviews and observations across dozens of events. Some said they wanted to beat traffic or had work the next day. Others complained about sound quality. One man wanted to go home to his French bulldog. Another needed to get home to his daughter. A third had a Yorkie with him that started acting out. A fourth man said his phone died…. Trump repeatedly has resisted entreaties from advisers and allies to cut down on his speeches. ‘They want a show. They want two hours,’ Trump said this year to an ally who suggested shorter speeches. Like others, the ally spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a private conversation.” • Strikes me as a non-issue, even if Harris did get under Trump’s rather thin skin with it.

Realignment and Legitimacy

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Transmission: Marburg

“Deadly virus scare closes tracks at Hamburg rail station” [Politico]. “Emergency crews in full protective gear boarded a train from Frankfurt after a 26-year-old medical student and his girlfriend developed flu-like symptoms on the train. Passengers were evacuated and police closed two tracks at the station for several hours before reopening them. According to the Hamburg Fire Department, one of the two suspected Marburg victims also suffered from mild vomiting. ‘He then called the fire department because he suspected something was wrong,’ a spokesperson told the Die Welt newspaper. The Bild tabloid reported that the student had arrived by plane directly from Rwanda, where he’d been in contact with a patient who was later diagnosed as infected with Marburg.”

“Master Question List for Marburg Virus (MARV)” (PDF) [Department of Homeland Security]. An inocculum against “Droplets! Droplets! Droplets!” which you will doubtless hear:

(I am not saying aerosol transmission is the primary mode; it might well not be. However, the possibility must be taken into account, which droplet goons never do.)

“Mask Bans Don’t Protect Anyone. They Hurt Everyone” [Jessica, Sentinel Intelligence]. “Marburg can spread through respiratory droplets, including coughing and sneezing. That means an N95 mask or better offers protection. As a 2020 article in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases states, ‘Although frank airborne transmission [of Marburg] has not been demonstrated in human outbreaks, droplet spread to mucous membranes presumably occurs’ and ‘infection by direct application of aerosol to the airways has been demonstrated in animal models.’ Another article in Viruses on this family of pathogens, including Marburg and Ebola, found that up to 17 percent of transmission did not happen through direct physical contact, suggesting ‘human to human respiratory tract infection through droplets and aerosols.’ The authors also say that because we have such limited data on Marburg outbreaks, we can’t make assumptions about transmission…. Given what we’ve learned about the aerosolized spread of disease, there is absolutely no reason to take chances with a virus like Marburg, which exists in the same family as Ebola, causes similar symptoms, and carries a mortality rate between 50 and 90 percent, depending on your access to care. According to a report by Boston University, ‘transmission via droplets is suspected’ for both Ebola and Marburg. Given that agencies like the CDC and the WHO have spent years denying or downplaying the airborne nature of other viruses, it’s reasonable and proactive to consider Marburg as potentially respiratory, and therefore to count it as one more reason to wear a good-fitting respirator.” • Indeed.

Vaccines

“Vaccines, Past and Present” [Science]. Throwing down the guantlet: “For sheer public health benefit, once you establish a clean water supply it’s very hard to beat effective vaccines. We have wiped out smallpox as a disease, one that had been dreaded all the way back to prehistory. We are tantilizingly close to doing the same with polio. Other diseases that used to be a common feature of life (especially for children) are now rare and hardly thought of, because of broad vaccination programs starting in infancy. The amount of disability and outright premature death that has been avoided by these efforts over the last century is nearly beyond calculation: we life in a different and far better world because of them. That’s what makes anti-vaccine activism so frustrating. People have been suspicious of the whole idea of vaccination ever since the beginning, but the toxic skepticism really seems to have increased in recent years, reaching a crescendo during the coronavirus pandemic. The first outright anti-vaxxer I ever encountered was in about 1992, and I was baffled – I thought I was talking to someone through some kind of time portal that opened up to a hundred years before. Little did I realize! The populations of the industrialized nations have forgotten (or never known at all) what all these diseases used to do, and imagine things like measles, pertussis, and rubella to be breezy little fevers that used to make kids miss a day or two of school before they were all good as new. (You really can find anti-vaccine folks talking exactly like that). And to avoid these wholesome natural rites of childhood, you want to let evil drug companies inject horrible concoctions into perfect little babies? Defiling them forever? Get those toxin-laden syringes out of here!” • That said, when I was a mere sprat, I think I was given MMR (Measles, Mumps, Rubella) for which I am grateful. When I look at today’s vaccinatiion schedule, I stopped counting at twenty and there was plenty to come. Knowing what I know today about CDC, I can well believe that institutional imperatives are driving that number, in addition to science. Further — and I would love to be proved wrong on this — I would bet the count of studies on interactions between all 20+ vaccines would approximate to zero. In a perfect world. we could have discussion on cutting back; a schedule that big just can’t be right. This world, however, is not perfect, and my concern is rolling back all vaccination, including MMR, taking us back to the days before Edward Jenner, when “natural immunity” meant a lot of children died early. Oh for the days when anti-vax sentiment was confined to rich [glass bowls] in Marin County, who could always send their children to hospital! (Of course, one of the reasons to burn CDC to the ground, plow the rubble under, and salt the earth is how badly they butchered the Covid vaccines, with a resulting anti-halo (?) effect for all vaccines.)

Testing and Tracking: Wastewater

“Sequencing wastewater material may be the key to getting a grip on the H5N1 bird flu outbreak” [STAT]. “It is possible that H5N1 may be even more widespread, including in states without reported infections among dairy cows, but a lack of testing has made it difficult to know where the virus is circulating. This bottleneck could be resolved by sampling wastewater as close to dairy farms as possible and using genomic sequencing to confirm the presence of H5N1. Sequencing could also assess any detected virus for mutations possibly conducive for human transmission and enable phylogenetic analyses that can help determine from which species it may have originated. The more H5N1 is allowed to circulate, especially among dairy cows that are clustered closely together in large numbers and with close human contact, the greater the chance the virus could evolve for efficient human spread. Several months into this outbreak, on-farm testing has remained limited. Farm owners remain reluctant to allow testing of bulk milk and animals due to fears of financial loss. Farm workers, many of whom are undocumented, have also been hesitant to get tested due to concerns of losing work, immigration issues, and, in some instances, being unaware that there is an outbreak. After nine poultry workers were infected in July, Colorado mandated routine testing of bulk milk on all dairy farms. This policy quickly led to the detection of 11 infected herds. Colorado required these herds to remain isolated until subsequent testing confirms that viral circulation is no longer present. Massachusetts is the only other state to test all its dairy herds. Other states have not pursued similar directives presumably due to opposition from farm owners and the dairy industry. Colorado’s approach could be mimicked without mandates by sampling wastewater as close to farms as possible and sequencing it for H5N1. ” • Dairy farmers fighting testing tooth and nail should get together with hospitals fighting masks.

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: At last, the wastewater data looks improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Back to School” bullet, at least at the national level. The wastewater drop is reinforced by the positivity numbers as well.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC September 23	Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):
Variants [3] CDC September 28	★ Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 26
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data October 3:	★ National [6] CDC September 14:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens September 30:	Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 26:
Travelers Data
★ Positivity[9] CDC September 16:	★Variants[10] CDC September 16:
Deaths
★ Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28:	★ Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Much less intense!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.

[10] (Travelers: Variants).

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Unemployment Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment rate in the United States fell to 4.1% in September 2024, the lowest in three months, down from 4.2% in the previous month and surprising market expectations, which had forecasted the rate to remain unchanged.”

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Manufacturing: “Nearly 3 weeks into strike, resolve remains for Boeing workers” [Everett Herald]. “Some Machinists bring bullhorns to spread their message, others homemade signs that read ‘No pension, no planes.’ The company’s pension plan continues to be a major sticking point in contract negotiations. Many said restoring pensions was their primary demand. In 2014, the union narrowly voted to forego pensions after Boeing floated working on a new version of the 777 out of state. ‘We want it back,’ said Andrew Darazs, who was on the picket line Wednesday. ‘I ask all these guys who retire from here, I’m like, would you be able to retire without your pension? Absolutely not.'”

Manufacturing: “US Senators Want DOJ To Hold Boeing Executives Accountable For 737 MAX Safety Issues” [Simple Flying]. “wo Democratic United States senators, Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal, have called out the Department of Justice ( DOJ) for failing to hold Boeing and its executives accountable…. The two senators sent a public letter to Merrick Garland, the Attorney General of the DOJ, and Lisa Monaco, the Deputy Attorney General of the DOJ. According to Warren and Blumenthal, Boeing’s company culture has promoted short-term profit over passenger safety, and the DOJ’s refusal to prosecute individual executives has failed to change this culture.” And from the letter: “[W]e urge DOJ to thoroughly investigate Boeing’s safety failures, identify any individual executives who are criminally responsible for the company’s concerning safety culture, and, critically, hold them accountable.” • About time.

Manufacturing: “Boeing, Virgin Galactic settle lawsuit over work on Virgin ‘mothership'” [Reuters]. “Virgin Galactic’s mothership jet carrier delivers sightseeing vessels into suborbital space. The company completed its first commercial flight last year. Virgin signed a contract with Boeing’s Aurora Flight Sciences in 2022 to help design a new mothership. Boeing later said that the mothership would cost more and take longer to develop than expected. Boeing sued Virgin in March, accusing it of stealing trade secrets and refusing to pay $25 million owed for Boeing’s work. The lawsuit said Virgin took proprietary information from Boeing including test data and math equations. Virgin countersued in California in April, claiming Boeing performed ‘shoddy and incomplete work. on the aircraft.” • Which would indeed have been unsurprising. Small potatoes, but something crossed of Ortberg’s list, I suppose.

Manufacturing: “Veteran analyst roasts Boeing’s stock after miscues” [TheStreet]. Following a horrid timeline, this: “So it’s no great surprise that Boeing’s stock has plunged 60% over the past five years and 42% so far this year alone. If it weren’t the country’s sole big jet manufacturer and an important contractor for the Pentagon, Boeing might be in danger of going under.” And: “TheStreet Pro analyst Stephen Guilfoyle, whose career stretches back to the 1980s on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, sees Boeing’s pain continuing. As of June 30, the company had $52.904 billion of debt, of which $4.765 billion is due within 12 months, the veteran investor said. Boeing also had accounts payable of $11.864 billion and $8.407 billion in pension-related liabilities. Technical analysis factors bode ill for the company, too.”

Tech: “Set Up a VPN on Your iPhone Without an App” [ForestVPN]. “In today’s era, where privacy concerns loom over us like a shadow, using a VPN on your iPhone has become more than just a tech-savvy move—it’s a necessity. Many of us rely on VPN apps to secure our online activities, but did you know there’s a way to set up a VPN on your iPhone without downloading an app? This method not only saves space but also provides a seamless experience for users who prefer a more direct approach. Let’s dive into this surprisingly simple process….” • Marketing, unsurprisingly, ForestVPN, but the method looks general.

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 67 Greed (previous close: 68 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 68 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 3 at 1:53:13 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

“12 Months of Mandarin” [Isaak.net]. “Estimates for achieving intermediate fluency in Mandarin Chinese range up to spending years and around 4000 total hours (2,200h classroom hours, 1,800 outside). I did it in 1500 hours total and less than a year. Over the last 365 days, I studied Mandarin for fun. With anki, tutors, and traveling accelerating my learning, I ended up getting to the level of comfortable conversational fluency. My Mandarin isn’t perfect nor perfectly fluent, but I can now handle everything up to technical conversations in the area of my PhD.” • Unmentioned, the two trips to China! Nevertheless, a very interesting read!

strong>Guillotine Watch

Pronounced “oof”:

Valuable child raising tip from the New York Times pic.twitter.com/JPxhtmEgUc

— David Burge (@iowahawkblog) October 3, 2024

Anyone else count the fingers on the kid’s hand? OTOH, just when I conclude the Times is completely irredeemable–

Gallery

“10-Minute Challenge: Hiroshige’s ‘Sudden Rain'” [New York Times]. The deck: “We’d like you to look at one piece of art for 10 minutes, uninterrupted.” Hiroshige, “Great Bridge: Sudden Rain at Atake”:

In contrast:

Composition in Gray (Rag-time) by Theo van Doesburg pic.twitter.com/LEPnUljAFm

— Guggenheim Art Bot (@guggenheimbot) October 3, 2024

News of the Wired

“The Golden Owl treasure hunt is won after 31 years” [Golden Owl Hunt]. “Michel Becker, the treasure hunt organiser, has announced that the correct solution has been given to him. The longest running treasure hunt in the world* is finally over! *Sur La Trace de La Chouette d’Or founded in 1993 is the longest running unsolved treasure hunt with a single prize. The Secret treasure hunt was founded in 1982 but 3 of the 12 prizes have been found.” • Great, I suppose.

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From JU:

JU writes: “Coffee Pot Fire sunrise.” The sun isn’t really a plant, but there are trees in the foreground….

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