By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Blue Mockingbird, Carretera Federal 196, Guerrero, MX (17.465, -100.166), Atoyac de Álvarez, Guerrero, Mexico.
In Case You Might Miss…
- New RCP chart (it’s tied) and newCovid charts (not worsening).
- Boeing strike continues; Warren and Blumenthal call for criminal investigations of executives.
- Kamala to throw Khan, Gensler under the bus (ka-ching).
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
I apologize for this enormous thread, but it’s important. McGurk is a loony:
(Hümeyra Pamuk is Reuters’ deputy US foreign policy editor.)
“The disappearing Bidens: A quiet end to a presidency” [Axios]. “Joe Biden’s visit to the storm-ravaged states in the South this week was an event that’s become increasingly rare for the president: a public appearance. Biden hasn’t scheduled public events in 43 of the 75 days since he dropped his re-election bid, a reflection of the 81-year-old president’s unpopularity and age limitations as he approaches his last three months in office. Vice President Kamala Harris — who has praised Biden but doesn’t routinely talk about him in her speeches — has had just one campaign event with him along with a few official events in Washington. First Lady Jill Biden also has largely withdrawn from campaign events, and Harris’ team hasn’t pushed for her to do them, people familiar with the matter told Axios. Since dropping out on July 21, Joe Biden has scheduled just two public appearances before 11am, none before 10am, and five after 5pm, according to an Axios analysis of Biden’s schedules.” • But maybe Biden’s too busy running the country [hollow laughter]. (Both the popular Guns of August and the scholarly The Sleepwalkers point out that most of the European monarchs were on vacation in August 1914. The monarchs may have been fools (especially Czar Nicholas and Kaiser Wilhelm) but the bureaucratic underlings left in charge of the various chancelleries were even bigger fools, and warmongers, too. Making, in my mind, the interregnum between a functioning Biden administration and election day quite dangerous, and perhaps increasingly dangerous.)
2024
Less than forty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error, Trump gained a few inches of ground in the trench warfare (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * * * * Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris’s Wall Street charm offensive begins to pay off” [Financial Times]. “Two finance executives close to Harris said she had reassured them that she could appoint new officials to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Trade Commission who would take a less aggressive stance than current respective chairs Gary Gensler and Lina Khan.” • That’s nice.
Kamala (D): “Do Americans Really Want a ‘Politics of Joy’?” [Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal]. “Were I a Harris supporter I would be concerned about these things: The first is so obvious it barely needs saying, but with a month to go should be said again. She still hasn’t given voters a satisfying sense of what she is about, what the purpose of her political career is…. Her campaign has placed too many chips on the idea of the mood, the vibe, the picture. “She’s bringing us a politics of joy,” Gov. Tim Walz said, again, in his summation the other night in the vice-presidential debate. But look, “the politics of joy” didn’t help Hubert Humphrey when he used exactly those words in his announcement for the presidency in April 1968. The country was becoming undone by Vietnam and he was talking about . . . joy? It made no one smile or feel inspired except his opponent, Richard Nixon…. If I were a Trump supporter I would be worried about what Trump supporters have worried about since he came down the escalator, that he is squandering it away every day. Voters and observers have spent a decade saying “he’s getting crazier,” “he’s going too far,” and they’re always right and are right now. He’s selling $100,000 watches and having Truth Social meltdowns, free-associating about movies and dribbling away arguments. Ms. Harris insists almost to the point of credibility that the Biden-Harris administration didn’t let the border be overwhelmed, the Biden-Harris administration tried to control the border and put forward the toughest bill and Donald Trump stopped it. And she’s getting away with it! With the Jan. 6 filings released this week, his focus is sure to return to the endless murk and mire of personal grievance.” • I’m going to quote myself because [lambert preens] I’m chuffed at having gotten to the same space well before Nooners: “[E]very moment Trump takes to hawk [family blogging] watches is a moment taken away from the campaign trail. And the campaign trail is not a place go skipping along, hither and yon, dancing and singing la-di-da, and stopping to smell the flowers (or watches, as the case may be). If there’s anything ‘weird’ about the Trump campaign — leaving aside the professional deformations of the right — behavior like this is it. Have some respect for the base!” Well worth a read, as the O.G.s usually are.
Kamala (D): Cheneygasm:
It's amazinghttps://t.co/6qbdq7Zvxx
— Nate Hochman (@njhochman) October 4, 2024
We always used to chastise Democrats for moving right, because why would people vote for a fake Republican when they could vote for a real one? We never anticipated that the Democrats would actually become Republicans, or Republicans Democrats. With all that entails.
Liz Cheney does have to do this. She can’t just go on with her life. Her family fortune is in Halliburton, which has hitched its financial star to the tune of billions to the fate of Ukraine. https://t.co/414Cw9qUXR pic.twitter.com/ho0q96oUad
— Mike Benz (@MikeBenzCyber) October 4, 2024
Weird. And speaking of Liz Cheney–
* * * Trump (R): He’s not wrong, is he?
Sincere question for Democrats:
Trump says Liz Cheney is a "stupid war hawk who just wants to shoot missiles at people."
Harris says Liz Cheney's endorsement is a "profound honor."
Which position is correct? https://t.co/0ik9jSC44a— Nathan J Robinson (@NathanJRobinson) October 4, 2024
Trump (R): “Trump losing ground with women on economy, poll shows” [Politico]. “An American University poll, shared first with POLITICO, found that a majority of women trust Harris over Trump to address inflation and bring down the cost of living. Another 46 percent prefer Harris over Trump to handle the economy, while 38 percent prefer Trump on it. Nearly two-thirds of the women surveyed said inflation and the economy were the most important issue for them as they decided on their vote. The economy remains a weak point for Democrats entering the final month of the campaign. One of Trump’s most enduring strengths is voters’ view of his leadership on the issue, which was even more pronounced when President Joe Biden led the Democratic ticket. But since Harris took over in July, the vice president has chipped away at Trump’s lead on the economy. In the poll, which surveyed more than 800 registered female voters in September, women said they are feeling better about the economy overall. More than 60 percent of suburban women said they felt pessimistic about the economy when surveyed in 2023 and 2022, but that fell to 40 percent in the poll’s latest data. Still, nearly two-thirds of women said their personal financial situation had gotten worse in recent years.” • Hmm.
Trump (R): “The reasons people say they leave Donald Trump’s rallies early” [WaPo]. “The Republican presidential nominee consistently draws large, enthusiastic and rowdy crowds to his rallies and other campaign events, and at nearly all of them, another trend is clear: Scores of people leave early. Most stay. But Trump often runs late and goes long, prompting many to bow out because of other responsibilities, priorities or, sometimes, waning patience and interest, according to Washington Post interviews and observations across dozens of events. Some said they wanted to beat traffic or had work the next day. Others complained about sound quality. One man wanted to go home to his French bulldog. Another needed to get home to his daughter. A third had a Yorkie with him that started acting out. A fourth man said his phone died…. Trump repeatedly has resisted entreaties from advisers and allies to cut down on his speeches. ‘They want a show. They want two hours,’ Trump said this year to an ally who suggested shorter speeches. Like others, the ally spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a private conversation.” • Strikes me as a non-issue, even if Harris did get under Trump’s rather thin skin with it.
Realignment and Legitimacy
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Transmission: Marburg
“Deadly virus scare closes tracks at Hamburg rail station” [Politico]. “Emergency crews in full protective gear boarded a train from Frankfurt after a 26-year-old medical student and his girlfriend developed flu-like symptoms on the train. Passengers were evacuated and police closed two tracks at the station for several hours before reopening them. According to the Hamburg Fire Department, one of the two suspected Marburg victims also suffered from mild vomiting. ‘He then called the fire department because he suspected something was wrong,’ a spokesperson told the Die Welt newspaper. The Bild tabloid reported that the student had arrived by plane directly from Rwanda, where he’d been in contact with a patient who was later diagnosed as infected with Marburg.”
“Master Question List for Marburg Virus (MARV)” (PDF) [Department of Homeland Security]. An inocculum against “Droplets! Droplets! Droplets!” which you will doubtless hear:
(I am not saying aerosol transmission is the primary mode; it might well not be. However, the possibility must be taken into account, which droplet goons never do.)
“Mask Bans Don’t Protect Anyone. They Hurt Everyone” [Jessica, Sentinel Intelligence]. “Marburg can spread through respiratory droplets, including coughing and sneezing. That means an N95 mask or better offers protection. As a 2020 article in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases states, ‘Although frank airborne transmission [of Marburg] has not been demonstrated in human outbreaks, droplet spread to mucous membranes presumably occurs’ and ‘infection by direct application of aerosol to the airways has been demonstrated in animal models.’ Another article in Viruses on this family of pathogens, including Marburg and Ebola, found that up to 17 percent of transmission did not happen through direct physical contact, suggesting ‘human to human respiratory tract infection through droplets and aerosols.’ The authors also say that because we have such limited data on Marburg outbreaks, we can’t make assumptions about transmission…. Given what we’ve learned about the aerosolized spread of disease, there is absolutely no reason to take chances with a virus like Marburg, which exists in the same family as Ebola, causes similar symptoms, and carries a mortality rate between 50 and 90 percent, depending on your access to care. According to a report by Boston University, ‘transmission via droplets is suspected’ for both Ebola and Marburg. Given that agencies like the CDC and the WHO have spent years denying or downplaying the airborne nature of other viruses, it’s reasonable and proactive to consider Marburg as potentially respiratory, and therefore to count it as one more reason to wear a good-fitting respirator.” • Indeed.
Vaccines
“Vaccines, Past and Present” [Science]. Throwing down the guantlet: “For sheer public health benefit, once you establish a clean water supply it’s very hard to beat effective vaccines. We have wiped out smallpox as a disease, one that had been dreaded all the way back to prehistory. We are tantilizingly close to doing the same with polio. Other diseases that used to be a common feature of life (especially for children) are now rare and hardly thought of, because of broad vaccination programs starting in infancy. The amount of disability and outright premature death that has been avoided by these efforts over the last century is nearly beyond calculation: we life in a different and far better world because of them. That’s what makes anti-vaccine activism so frustrating. People have been suspicious of the whole idea of vaccination ever since the beginning, but the toxic skepticism really seems to have increased in recent years, reaching a crescendo during the coronavirus pandemic. The first outright anti-vaxxer I ever encountered was in about 1992, and I was baffled – I thought I was talking to someone through some kind of time portal that opened up to a hundred years before. Little did I realize! The populations of the industrialized nations have forgotten (or never known at all) what all these diseases used to do, and imagine things like measles, pertussis, and rubella to be breezy little fevers that used to make kids miss a day or two of school before they were all good as new. (You really can find anti-vaccine folks talking exactly like that). And to avoid these wholesome natural rites of childhood, you want to let evil drug companies inject horrible concoctions into perfect little babies? Defiling them forever? Get those toxin-laden syringes out of here!” • That said, when I was a mere sprat, I think I was given MMR (Measles, Mumps, Rubella) for which I am grateful. When I look at today’s vaccinatiion schedule, I stopped counting at twenty and there was plenty to come. Knowing what I know today about CDC, I can well believe that institutional imperatives are driving that number, in addition to science. Further — and I would love to be proved wrong on this — I would bet the count of studies on interactions between all 20+ vaccines would approximate to zero. In a perfect world. we could have discussion on cutting back; a schedule that big just can’t be right. This world, however, is not perfect, and my concern is rolling back all vaccination, including MMR, taking us back to the days before Edward Jenner, when “natural immunity” meant a lot of children died early. Oh for the days when anti-vax sentiment was confined to rich [glass bowls] in Marin County, who could always send their children to hospital! (Of course, one of the reasons to burn CDC to the ground, plow the rubble under, and salt the earth is how badly they butchered the Covid vaccines, with a resulting anti-halo (?) effect for all vaccines.)
Testing and Tracking: Wastewater
“Sequencing wastewater material may be the key to getting a grip on the H5N1 bird flu outbreak” [STAT]. “It is possible that H5N1 may be even more widespread, including in states without reported infections among dairy cows, but a lack of testing has made it difficult to know where the virus is circulating. This bottleneck could be resolved by sampling wastewater as close to dairy farms as possible and using genomic sequencing to confirm the presence of H5N1. Sequencing could also assess any detected virus for mutations possibly conducive for human transmission and enable phylogenetic analyses that can help determine from which species it may have originated. The more H5N1 is allowed to circulate, especially among dairy cows that are clustered closely together in large numbers and with close human contact, the greater the chance the virus could evolve for efficient human spread. Several months into this outbreak, on-farm testing has remained limited. Farm owners remain reluctant to allow testing of bulk milk and animals due to fears of financial loss. Farm workers, many of whom are undocumented, have also been hesitant to get tested due to concerns of losing work, immigration issues, and, in some instances, being unaware that there is an outbreak. After nine poultry workers were infected in July, Colorado mandated routine testing of bulk milk on all dairy farms. This policy quickly led to the detection of 11 infected herds. Colorado required these herds to remain isolated until subsequent testing confirms that viral circulation is no longer present. Massachusetts is the only other state to test all its dairy herds. Other states have not pursued similar directives presumably due to opposition from farm owners and the dairy industry. Colorado’s approach could be mimicked without mandates by sampling wastewater as close to farms as possible and sequencing it for H5N1. ” • Dairy farmers fighting testing tooth and nail should get together with hospitals fighting masks.
Lambert here: At last, the wastewater data looks improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Back to School” bullet, at least at the national level. The wastewater drop is reinforced by the positivity numbers as well.
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC September 23 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC September 28 | ★ Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 26 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York[5] New York State, data October 3: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens September 30: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 26: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| ★ Positivity[9] CDC September 16: | ★Variants[10] CDC September 16: |
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| Deaths | |
| ★ Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28: | ★ Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Much less intense!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).
[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.
[10] (Travelers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Employment Situation: “United States Unemployment Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment rate in the United States fell to 4.1% in September 2024, the lowest in three months, down from 4.2% in the previous month and surprising market expectations, which had forecasted the rate to remain unchanged.”
Manufacturing: “Nearly 3 weeks into strike, resolve remains for Boeing workers” [Everett Herald]. “Some Machinists bring bullhorns to spread their message, others homemade signs that read ‘No pension, no planes.’ The company’s pension plan continues to be a major sticking point in contract negotiations. Many said restoring pensions was their primary demand. In 2014, the union narrowly voted to forego pensions after Boeing floated working on a new version of the 777 out of state. ‘We want it back,’ said Andrew Darazs, who was on the picket line Wednesday. ‘I ask all these guys who retire from here, I’m like, would you be able to retire without your pension? Absolutely not.'”
Manufacturing: “US Senators Want DOJ To Hold Boeing Executives Accountable For 737 MAX Safety Issues” [Simple Flying]. “wo Democratic United States senators, Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal, have called out the Department of Justice ( DOJ) for failing to hold Boeing and its executives accountable…. The two senators sent a public letter to Merrick Garland, the Attorney General of the DOJ, and Lisa Monaco, the Deputy Attorney General of the DOJ. According to Warren and Blumenthal, Boeing’s company culture has promoted short-term profit over passenger safety, and the DOJ’s refusal to prosecute individual executives has failed to change this culture.” And from the letter: “[W]e urge DOJ to thoroughly investigate Boeing’s safety failures, identify any individual executives who are criminally responsible for the company’s concerning safety culture, and, critically, hold them accountable.” • About time.
Manufacturing: “Boeing, Virgin Galactic settle lawsuit over work on Virgin ‘mothership'” [Reuters]. “Virgin Galactic’s mothership jet carrier delivers sightseeing vessels into suborbital space. The company completed its first commercial flight last year. Virgin signed a contract with Boeing’s Aurora Flight Sciences in 2022 to help design a new mothership. Boeing later said that the mothership would cost more and take longer to develop than expected. Boeing sued Virgin in March, accusing it of stealing trade secrets and refusing to pay $25 million owed for Boeing’s work. The lawsuit said Virgin took proprietary information from Boeing including test data and math equations. Virgin countersued in California in April, claiming Boeing performed ‘shoddy and incomplete work. on the aircraft.” • Which would indeed have been unsurprising. Small potatoes, but something crossed of Ortberg’s list, I suppose.
Manufacturing: “Veteran analyst roasts Boeing’s stock after miscues” [TheStreet]. Following a horrid timeline, this: “So it’s no great surprise that Boeing’s stock has plunged 60% over the past five years and 42% so far this year alone. If it weren’t the country’s sole big jet manufacturer and an important contractor for the Pentagon, Boeing might be in danger of going under.” And: “TheStreet Pro analyst Stephen Guilfoyle, whose career stretches back to the 1980s on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, sees Boeing’s pain continuing. As of June 30, the company had $52.904 billion of debt, of which $4.765 billion is due within 12 months, the veteran investor said. Boeing also had accounts payable of $11.864 billion and $8.407 billion in pension-related liabilities. Technical analysis factors bode ill for the company, too.”
Tech: “Set Up a VPN on Your iPhone Without an App” [ForestVPN]. “In today’s era, where privacy concerns loom over us like a shadow, using a VPN on your iPhone has become more than just a tech-savvy move—it’s a necessity. Many of us rely on VPN apps to secure our online activities, but did you know there’s a way to set up a VPN on your iPhone without downloading an app? This method not only saves space but also provides a seamless experience for users who prefer a more direct approach. Let’s dive into this surprisingly simple process….” • Marketing, unsurprisingly, ForestVPN, but the method looks general.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 67 Greed (previous close: 68 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 68 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 3 at 1:53:13 PM ET.
“12 Months of Mandarin” [Isaak.net]. “Estimates for achieving intermediate fluency in Mandarin Chinese range up to spending years and around 4000 total hours (2,200h classroom hours, 1,800 outside). I did it in 1500 hours total and less than a year. Over the last 365 days, I studied Mandarin for fun. With anki, tutors, and traveling accelerating my learning, I ended up getting to the level of comfortable conversational fluency. My Mandarin isn’t perfect nor perfectly fluent, but I can now handle everything up to technical conversations in the area of my PhD.” • Unmentioned, the two trips to China! Nevertheless, a very interesting read!
Pronounced “oof”:
Valuable child raising tip from the New York Times pic.twitter.com/JPxhtmEgUc
— David Burge (@iowahawkblog) October 3, 2024
Anyone else count the fingers on the kid’s hand? OTOH, just when I conclude the Times is completely irredeemable–
Gallery
“10-Minute Challenge: Hiroshige’s ‘Sudden Rain'” [New York Times]. The deck: “We’d like you to look at one piece of art for 10 minutes, uninterrupted.” Hiroshige, “Great Bridge: Sudden Rain at Atake”:
In contrast:
Composition in Gray (Rag-time) by Theo van Doesburg pic.twitter.com/LEPnUljAFm
— Guggenheim Art Bot (@guggenheimbot) October 3, 2024
“The Golden Owl treasure hunt is won after 31 years” [Golden Owl Hunt]. “Michel Becker, the treasure hunt organiser, has announced that the correct solution has been given to him. The longest running treasure hunt in the world* is finally over! *Sur La Trace de La Chouette d’Or founded in 1993 is the longest running unsolved treasure hunt with a single prize. The Secret treasure hunt was founded in 1982 but 3 of the 12 prizes have been found.” • Great, I suppose.
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87 comments
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Seeing a blank page but assuming one of these refreshes I’ll see a link to this CNN story about Trump’s GOTV strategy. That or NC has linked to it and I missed it or whatever, this is a blank page and my inner retired blogger cannot just walk away.
10×10 is something I should have been paying more attention to even if the information was coming from a hostile source. This is brilliant and exactly in step with the times (which means that under normal circumstances the Democrats will be doing this in 2032).
Turning out low-frequency and non-voters is a 100% pick up, no downside to it when they’re vetted and turned out by Trump supporting family and friends. It’s how Democrats used to do certain races back when Democrats permitted lowly citizens to do volunteer work.
No sane person is allowing ads or news stories to influence them about anything anymore. Watching the news is like being invited to come to bed by someone you find highly desirable but the bed is so soiled you can’t bear to bare yourself. Everyone’s barriers are up, the tide of opinion from here on out will be like a mudslide.
Cheerier comments to follow, I’m sure : )
One does have the suspicion that iffy polls may be cultivating a stalemate impression that is, to coin a term, misinformation. After all if Kamala starts to go down then how to come back? Certainly events don’t seem to be breaking the Dems’ way. Karma really a thing?
A pendulum swinging can look like karma or it can look like the Golden Horde approaching. I’m leaning Horde.
Perhaps they’re pursuing the golden owl treasure hunt?
Hopefully more successful than the Maltese Falcon treasure hunt.
“It’s all the Russian’s fault!”
I thought events were turning badly against the dems, but then the dock worker strike resolved just like magic.
Genocide of Palestinians and North Carolinians still has plenty of room to get worse though.
You forgot East Palestinians. The derailment chemical cancers have yet to erupt.
Imminant nuclear war over Ukraine or Israel’s borders, the non border here, now the national embarassment of FEMA bankrupted by ‘migrants.’
It’s stressful and accelerating.
Until the next president is in office, our extended family is going to withdraw from politics, will vote for sure, but protest by no longer participating in the consumer economy to whatever extent possible.
Home cooked meals, gardening, work staycations. If we’re going to be vaporized or worse, at least we will die at home.
If no war, will get a lot done.
I keep mentioning it, but even deep in the article that came out a few weeks ago about increased voter registration noted that it was largely Republican. A tweet over a month ago had it significantly above the Democratic registrations. No not everyone who registered is going to vote, but if anything more than 25% do they probably increase their advantage beyond the margin of errors in the polls, especially as Trump is holding steady but Harris is losing ground.
That was the point when I pretty much decided that unless there was an event that really knocked out Trump, not lawfare, he was going to win. I get Lambert’s point about lack of poll access for NC, but I think their strategy is still going to allow them to absorb that loss and still win.
I need to return to the question of polls consistently understating Trump support. I should make a map putting 2016/2020 understatement against Trump (or Kamala’s) margin in Swing States. I bet the race would look very different then.
Not quite maps, but rcp has some useful tables for those interested.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016StateFinalResults.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/
I got curious and ran some numbers, using wikipedia which, amazingly, has all the state aggregate polling numbers from 538. Nationwide, Trump overperformed his polling numbers by 3.4% (46.8% rather than 43.4%) while Biden was pretty much at where the polls said he would be (51.8% rather than 51.3%). This is not too unusual in one sense: there are far fewer third party votes and, by definition, undecideds don’t exist on the election day, although this does mean that most of the “undecideds” broke for Trump.
When examined state by state (limiting the sample only to the states where the margin of victory for either side was less than 10%), the states where Trump outperformed his polls most were:
Ohio (5.8%–53.3 vs. 47.5)
Iowa (5.5%–53.1 vs. 47.6)
Michigan (4.6%–47.8 vs. 43.2)
Florida (4.6%–51.2% vs. 46.6%): shocking that 538 expected Biden to carry FL!
Nationally, 4.8% 3rd party or undecideds in the polls. Ohio, Iowa, and Michigan had higher % of undecideds than others (aroudn 6% in all 3), but FL had less than national % (4.3%) and Biden actually underperformed his polls by more than 1%, although that was true in Ohio, Iowa, and to a degree, Michigan as well)
The remainder of the states with margin of victory less than 10%, from the 5th highest Trump overperformance (relative to aggregated polls):
Wisconsin (5.1%–48.8% vs. 43.7%)*
Maine (3.7%–44.0% vs. 40.3%)
Texas (3.5%–52.1% vs. 48.6%)
Nevada (3.3%–47.7% vs. 44.4%)
Pennsylvania (3.1%–48.7% vs. 45.6%)
Arizona (3.0%–49.1% vs. 46.1%)
North Carolina (2.8%–49.9% vs. 47.1%)
Minnesota (2.6%–45.3% vs. 42.7%)
New Hampshire (2.6%–45.4% vs. 42.8%)
Georgia (1.8%–49.2% vs. 47.4%)
*Should have been above Michigan, but I mixed up the numbers.
The short version (although I have trouble trusting state polls much in general) seems to be that Trump significantly overperformed his polls in most of the Midwest–MI, OH, IA, and WI and I would be hesitant trusting the slim margins Harris apparently enjoys in MI and WI. On the other hand, polls got things closer than not in the Southeast (Georgia was both close and the polls were fairly accurate–the Trump overperformance was only about half that of the national average. This does reinforce Lambert’s suspicion that, if Helene significantly affects turnout among Trump voters, Dems would have a notable advantage in NC.
Thanks, that link is very interesting”:
See Ron Brownstein on “irregular voters” (different from undecided voters) in Water Cooler last month. The Trump campaign is actually trying to expand the electorate. What a concept! Also, it’s not only a question of knocking on doors. Whose door to knock on matters too!
Note also the direct assault on what I argue is the core competence of the modern political party: Control over the ballot. OTOH, I imagine a wave of Florida-style “Brooks Brothers riots”; OTOH, without handmarked paper ballots, hand-counted in public, the balloting system is rotten and deserves to be destroyed. But I feel for the election workers, many of whom are volunteers, innocent bystanders caught in the crossfire.
Adding, everybody gushes about Kamala’s fundraising. But the campaign strategies of the two candidates seem completely orthogonal. I would bet a Trump dollar goes farther than a Kamala dollar, so the absolute numbers don’t matter so much. This was certainly true in 2016 (and may have been true in 2020).
> Adding, everybody gushes about Kamala’s fundraising. But the campaign strategies of the two candidates seem completely orthogonal. I would bet a Trump dollar goes farther than a Kamala dollar, so the absolute numbers don’t matter so much. This was certainly true in 2016
The goldfish-brains having a fundraising-gasm stand a good chance of waking up to same result as 2016 come November 6th.
One of my fave post-2016 pundit reactions to #HRC’s record-breaking fundraising came from none other than Van Jones (via YouTube)
#Setting1BDollarsOnFire
Yes, but Kamala’s probably pays more people better (on their respective staffs, that is.)
My neck of the woods, and the Marmot Cong.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rushing waterfalls. Towering mountain peaks. Late-summer wildflowers. It’s no wonder Mineral King has often been compared to the Swiss Alps.
But the only road that brings visitors to this remote corner of Sequoia National Park is also, in part, what keeps people away. The glacial valley is narrow and treacherous. Storms have washed out big chunks of asphalt, and snow keeps the road closed for much of the winter and spring. And a recent late-summer wildfire – now mostly contained – threatened a stretch of the road. But when the road is passable, Laile Di Silvestro makes the trip from the foothill town of Three Rivers several times a week in her rickety Toyota Corolla, even as the door latches and windows have rattled loose from too many bumpy trips.
There’s no insulation in her engine compartment, either, because marmots have chewed through it. These giant rodents are known for drinking radiator fluid and eating hoses, so park rangers urge visitors to protect their cars by wrapping them in giant tarps. The trailhead parking lots look like something out of a sci-fi movie, with every vehicle encased in a burrito of blue plastic.
https://www.kqed.org/news/12007126/uncovering-women-miners-forgotten-legacy-in-the-swiss-alps-of-sequoia-national-park
Nice marmot!
Thank you!
“Kamala Harris’s Wall Street charm offensive begins to pay off”
Irony, imagine President Trump appointing Lina Khan.
If he REALLY wants to stick it to the Professional Managerial Class, people who first managed our labor, then how we thought, spoke, managed how we saw ourself, managed the economy, and finally manage our future, he will appoint her.
Who could have imagined RFKjr on his team?
Khan doesn’t need to be reappointed. If a new president asks that she remain, that’s all that is necessary, as Khan is already confirmed.
The Trump campaign should start announcing its intention to keep Kahn in place if elected, starting right now. Keep accusing Harris of plotting to replace Kahn. Make Harris deny it in public.
can anyone opine on how this compares to the dangers of wet markets in china?
I think the perspective is that wet markets in China are a dereliction of duty to protect humanity from serious disease.
How does that compare to the US actions on dairy farms and among dairy corporatios?
Just a follow on re collapsed highway–from the pics it is just one side that fell although the eastbound lane may be fatally undermined. It’s not at all unusual for freeways to temporarily squeeze to two lanes. There’s still hope?
Thank you for the updates!
Do you consideer this a useful perspective:
I’m agnostic on FEMA (but I don’t like dogpiling or echo chambers on Twitter either).
Well, there was that link earlier today? where one of the people quoted in the destroyed town mentioned that people there, they’re educated, people have been to college, I guess to justify that they’re worthy of a rescue response. Kind of sad to read. Everyone should be granted aid in a disaster.
Ah, it was this:
‘Civilization is pretty much gone’ after Helene tears through Spruce Pine, NC
Read more at: https://www.newsobserver.com/news/weather-news/article293443994.html#storylink=cpy
Love it! My mom was exactly one of them. The hills of West Virginia. She would remind you of Granny on the Beverly Hillbillies. Born in 1918, her dad a moonshiner. As they say in the hills – she could go bear hunting with a switch.
She was far from ignorant, and had balls of steel. My uncle, all 6’5″ 350 pounds of bad ***, was scared of mom too. Too funny. After ending up in Ohio during the industrialization movement to the North, she was a union steward at the local factory and fought them too. They were not fans. Imagine that! She was honest as the day was long, would not tolerate lies, but loved and would do anything for anyone. And what a cook….
Yea, those dumb hicks from the sticks. I get tired of hearing that. I’ve traveled the back roads to small towns where the hicks in the sticks live. What I found was a whole bunch of wonderful people.
Why can’t we all just get along?
>>>Why can’t we all just get along?
Because there is no financial incentive for the elites to decent human beings?
> they’re educated, people have been to college, I guess to justify that they’re worthy of a rescue response.
Everybody is “worthy” of being rescued, in case anyone is in doubt about my views.
Normally, I’m strong on anecdotes, but in this case I’m betting many are politicized. OTOH, if FEMA on disater relief has become like CDC on pandemics, the outraged locals have a point.
Enter The Narrative (stage right):
Hoping to turn a negative into a positive, and solve the turnout issue. As in PA after the assassination attempt, there are voters who will crawl over broken glass to get to the polls, but the physical obstacles will remain (and possibly psychological/social obstacles as well, from an aftermath of funerals and loss).
Trump also held a town hall.
Kamala will arrive tomorrow, and you can bet a town hall isn’t on her schedule.
Enter The Narrative (stage “left”), from the above report:
Maybe I haven’t done enough reading, but I’m agnostic on Narratives. If anybody’s seen actual reporting on FEMA, and a curated collection of local anecdotes, that would be helpful.
Here’s an anecdote from east Asheville: I don’t know if I should have expected to see equipment emblazened with “FEMA” on the side, but the only place I have is in the back of the local VA hospital where I work. There were 8 tanker trucks that I believe were delivering potable water to top off the supply tank the facility has. Meanwhile, the county has still yet to establish a site for potable water distribution on this side of town. They publicly acknowledged that yesterday, no update on when they will. The bulk of the response in the area where I have been working is from the salt of the earth locals who raise beef cattle, work and volunteer at the local fire departments, and I’d bet dollars to donuts are trump voters. Based on what I’ve seen you can count these people are going to make it to the polls. Meanwhile while I’m shoveling gravel and silt out of the culverts to rebuild the roads to the top of the hill, the elderly PMC gent driving his mule back and forth for me to fill up wants to know if I have any advanced degrees.
Does FEMA have enough money on hand to do all the relief that having enough money would allow FEMA to be able to do? If it does not, then why doesn’t it? And who engineered that money-shortage situation for FEMA?
My grandfather was one of seven children in a dirt-floor cabin in what is called Appalachia. He earned a PhD from Columbia. Regardless, if I (MFA) mention the state I grew up in, I’m considered deplorable-adjacent, ha ha.
In the halls of academia I have it from reliable sources that this status is called being an “Adjunct Deplorable.”
Hmmm about that particular Hiroshige print. In Japan the term “Black Rain” is meant to describe the fallout from the two atomic devices exploded above two Japanese cities. One of those, Nagasaki, was the main Catholic cathedral city of Japan at the time. Two thirds of all Catholics in Japan then lived in Nagasaki.
Although written from a “believer” perspective, the following article is fascinating about how America treated and viewed Japan after the war, especially in the realm of religion.
See: https://www.samlee.org/single-post/2018/08/02/nagasaki-hiroshima-the-surrender-of-japan-and-christianity
Compare MacArthur’s attitudes towards Japanese religious practices to today’s Ultras’ beliefs and actions concerning their “adversaries” world-wide.
Everything that was old is new again.
The peculiar Japanese attitude towards Christianity (especially Catholicism) pervades throughout the work by Shusaku Endo (who was himself a Catholic–but a very Japanese one. He described his experience in Japan, where he grew up, and France, where he went to study literature after college, as something like this: in Japan, he felt like an outcast because he was a Christsian; in France, he still felt like an outcast because he was Japanese.) Even without knowing his background, I’ll add that Endo’s novels are fascinating read, even in translation. (My Japanese isn’t good enough to appreciate the original–I can barely follow the plot–but my colleagues who are better versed in Japanese say the way he writes is absolutely masterful)
Boeing:
I agree that it’s about time, but the cynic in me thinks that these two are just burnishing their reputations as part of a strong surrogate campaign for The Harris election campaign. I think I’m getting to the point where my cynicism is actually toxic for me. These are rough times as the falcon circles the geyere!!! sp?
> as the falcon circles the geyere!!! sp?
“Gyre” (“The Second Coming“).
Or it could be a gastronomic allusion: “The falcon circles the gruyere. The Matador! Me! Me.”
Here in California P.G.&E has plead guilty to more than 100 counts of manslaughter.
No one went to jail.
No one got fired.
And no one had their bonuses clawed back.
And no Anarcho-Syndicalist “Karma Kommandos” carried out any “liquidations” of those responsible for those unnecessary deaths. Until those in positions of power suffer real consequences for their actions, nothing will change.
I nominate this for “look for helpers” designation, on Marburg:
By the way, I completely reject the renaming of this virus to MARV, are you effing kidding me??!
Isn’t the danger period with Biden at the helm between now and the inauguration, not now and the election? After the election, the US will be being run by the caretakers of caretakers!
I thought about that, but at least we will know who the President will be. We don’t even know that now.
A fair point, although a pessimist would say that after the election we will only know who the President would be…. Stochastic terror and ballottery and all!
I refuse to go over to see but I’ll bet the 2024 Daily Kos dead enders fully believe the Cheney endorsements are a good thing and just further evidence of how bad Trump is, not proof of how far to the right Harris and the Dems are.
Wait…does anyone even go to that site these days?
Ah yes, the Daily Kos. Years and years ago I would go to sites like the Daily Kos, Empty Wheel, Corrente (this was my first introduction to Lambert’s work), Eschaton, Digby, Amanda Marcotte (yes, I know) and many others. Heady times…
And then Obama was elected. And since I had fallen hook, line, and sinker for his promises I was exceedingly disappointed with his positions on health care, Roe v. Wade, etc. I found my self increasingly unwelcome on sites I had previously felt comfortable and at home with. Even got banned from a couple of them, if I remember correctly.
The only one I can tolerate now is Atrios (Eschaton) as I find the other sites completely insufferable. Or at least that was the case the last time I checked.
In some ways it is quite sad how many of these people feel they represent a leftist viewpoint when they have in face become hardcore centrists, at best.
Well, Kos was a Republican. Maybe he’s really at home now.
I forgot to say that I added orts and scraps. Enjoy!
About that plantidote; is that Liz Cheney’s fundament?
Damn! You made me look! (ewww)
Sorry. And the sun really does shine out of it!
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/hospitals-take-steps-conserve-iv-fluid-supply-helene-strikes-critical-rcna173861
Hospitals take steps to conserve IV fluid supply after Helene strikes critical factory
Baxter International said it would temporarily close production at its North Cove, North Carolina-based facility, raising concerns about a potential nationwide shortage.
Yes – this could be a back breaker for hospitals across America –
This was brought to our attention this AM – and the conservation of IV Fluids will be starting this minute. There is zero chance of foreign supply stepping in – the world wide supply is already desperately low – and this is going to be a real issue.
A couple things of interest –
This plant also apparently made the majority of fluids used in dialysis. This may severely impact the ability to do dialysis for some time. We may need to have patients who usually do this 3 times a week going to 1-2 week. There is ALWAYS a spanner in the works with dialysis – because in the past decades in inner city hospitals, a considerable amount of dialysis is done on illegal aliens. It is illegal to do dialysis on non-American citizens on a regular scheduled basis – so constantly in the ERs present illegal aliens with dire renal failure issues. One time dialysis to get through a crisis is allowed. My guess is we will have to be doing a LOT more acute dialysis when we have to cut down from 3 to 1/week on everyone else – and this is going to get ugly really quickly. As we all sat around the table this AM in the medical staff meeting – there was a sense of “we really are in a 3rd world country now”. The ABSOLUTE FOLLY of having only one location or at most 2 in the country doing any one thing in the supply of medicine is insane. Much less exporting all this overseas. It is a national security issue. And it may just have detonated right in our face. I have been screaming about this for years – I have been laughed at and talked down to as a luddite over and over again. No one is laughing today. This could be a serious problem.
2) They have stated to us today that plant is likely down for 6 months – there are all kinds of issues with sterile fields, and apparently it is hip deep in mud. Unfortunately there are 2500-3000 highly skilled workers at that plant – and they may all disappear to other jobs. IOW, it may be difficult to get back up to speed in a timely manner when it is fixed months from now. There is zero chance of any other plants to really pick up the pace – they are all at max. This also requires workers with a level of skill ( this is not flipping hamburgers) which there are already none. Lots of head shaking around the table this am. This is not just IV fluids like you get if you are dehydrated – this is ALL KINDS of meds that get injected into IV bags – cardiac stuff in the ICU, chemo, antibiotics – …..Let me put it this way – we were told that ZERO IV bags that still had fluid unused were to be thrown away – they will use every drop in other patients. I could scarcely believe that – we are now at the same level as a mission in the darkest heart of Africa.
3) If using IV fluids is for things like dehydration – if the patient is awake – no IV fluids will be given – they will be given Gatorade instead – yes you heard that correctly. The nurses will assess a patient’s mental status and make the conversion to oral stuff immediately.
4) Because of the impending acute shortage and every hospital in America already beginning to frantically stockpile – the price of the remaining supply is literally skyrocketing to astronomical amounts. This could be a real problem for hospitals already struggling financially. It is hard to comprehend for an outsider to medicine how much stuff is dependent on these IV solutions.
Unfortunately as I pointed out today – I am old enough to remember the glass bottles – the autoclave – the technicians in the sterile field who would carefully mix the electrolytes – and we had a completely in house system – that worked for literally decades – no mountains of dead IV bags to be incinerated – and no need for outside supplies – just constant recycling of all the bottles. There are no bottles that can be gotten up to scale in any kind of time – no plugs and stoppers – no technicians and no large scale autoclaves anywhere in America. All gone.
This impending issue may very well be a parable of the automation and tech folly of the last 30-40 years. I hope they figure something out – but it is not looking good at all.
And this news report from today was basically exactly what we were told in our meeting today –
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/hospitals-take-steps-conserve-iv-fluid-supply-helene-strikes-critical-rcna173861
Please note – the big hospital associated with Harvard Medical School in this article – and multiple other research and university hospitals have reported having their supply cut to only 40% of their usual amount.
There is no timeline for any kind of resolution.
This is largely what we were told today locally. And many of the same issues and measures are discussed in the above article.
I get the idea listening to the PharmDs – this is going to be an issue for much longer than we think.
Having vague memories of Hurricane Maria taking out the factory that produces IV bags back in 2017, I did a memory refresh and found this horrifying article from 2022 detailing all of the issues dating back to the shortages of 2014 (which I’m sure comes as no surprise to you but definitely was to me):
The dripping, ticking time-bomb of IV shortages
I normally like to blockquote the important parts of articles I post links to but in this case, I can’t just can’t decide which ones are best and I’d have to copy the entire article.
So, for the TL;DR crowd:
Numerous product recalls? Check.
“unplanned production interruptions” disrupting supply? Check.
Importing saline because domestic production can’t keep up? Check.
Market shenanigans resulting in an anti-trust investigation? Check.
And the kicker — building a new factory in Daytona Beach, Florida, right in hurricane alley…
At the end of the article, they mentioned the ASHP Drug Shortages Database, which I also tracked down showing the list of 237 products currently in short supply.
Gobsmacked.
Here are refurbished autoclaves:
https://www.minnesotamedical.com/product-category/refurbished/refurbished-autoclaves/
And haven’t looked lately, but there are surplus stores that sell the bottles and supplies you might be talking about. Just a drop in the ocean but might be worth looking in to.
Makes you wonder what other vulnerabilities there are in the system. So one day there could be a flood and then a coupla days later you would find out that the place that made injection needles had gone under.
“The ABSOLUTE FOLLY of having only one location or at most 2 in the country doing any one thing in the supply of medicine is insane.”
“Makes you wonder what other vulnerabilities there are in the system. So one day there could be a flood and then a coupla days later you would find out that the place that made injection needles had gone under.”
There is however available since about June 2023 a weather forecasting system, that is especially fast, accurate for up to 7 days and accurate for a radius of about 3 kilometers or 1.86 miles: “Pangu.”
This system, used in China and Europe, could have been used to cover a critical facility or area.
That’s the thing. You and I know that it is folly not to build redundancy into a critical supply line but modern economists would see that as wasteful and not ‘”efficient” which is why they have been eliminating such redundancies across the board.
“modern economists” I think you mean orthodox propagandists which serve their masters with wild abandon …. sorta like playing the political bingo game for scraps under the masters table … does not matter because you still get the same orthodox paradigm with little twists too it …
This is what you get when you dump economists that follow empirically-based studies to those who support faith-based studies which is why you get “magical thinking’. The underpants gnomes had a more viable system-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5ih_TQWqCA (1:36 mins)
Well the so called faith is just rank ideology underpinned by massive egotism. Wrapping it bad maths and physics, too give it a veneer of empiricism is akin to divine rulers, proclaiming their decrees are from above and incontestable.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3257969/chinas-huawei-challenging-traditional-weather-forecasting-again-time-groundbreaking-ai-model-zhiji
April 7, 2024
China’s Huawei is challenging traditional weather forecasting again, this time with groundbreaking AI model Zhiji
Latest iteration of Huawei’s Pangu-Weather, a regional AI weather model, can give a five-day forecast to a precision of just 3km
Feat comes as Pangu-Weather was named the top scientific innovation of 2023 by the National Natural Science Foundation of China *
By Zhang Tong
* https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06185-3
As you would be well aware of CA, decades of tropes about efficiencies and lower consumer prices is now coming home to roost.
How would you “cover” a facility from a flood like that, even if you knew 7 days ahead that that particular flood was coming to that particular watershed?
Better to have several-to-many such facilities evenly sprinkled across the whole country. And better to have the regulated trade regime which would pre-guarantee to the builders of such facilities that they would not be put out of business by runaway-purchasers being allowed to take their business elsewhere in search of ” always the low price, always.”
Here are refurbished autoclaves:
https://www.minnesotamedical.com/product-category/refurbished/refurbished-autoclaves/
And haven’t looked lately, but there are surplus stores that sell the bottles and supplies you are talking about.
I’m amazed that the response to the north Carolina hurricane does not yet appear to be nudging the poll numbers.
Gah…what a week it’s like a month of experience crammed into 7 or 8 relatively short days, or it just seems this way. I hope the permission for venting is fully approved!
A full week of watching the bad news from western NC contrast with the good news. Volunteer pilots! Incredible efforts at search and rescue. Commendable efforts by the many employed by Duke Energy to restore power. No doubt there is a rational instinct to doubt what, when and how much the federal government brings to bear. After seeing trillions of dollars proliferated for the efforts in overseas conflicts such as say, oh Afghanistan, maybe the Feds can peel off just a few billions of dollars for our own people here.
RE: People leaving Trump rallies early
The article quotes a Trump advisor saying there are thousands at the rallies, and I didn’t see WaPo “fact checking” that. “Scores” leaving early out of presumably thousands is a trivial amount. Looks like a non-issue to me too, but it’s any stick to beat a dog time. Perhaps WaPo is betting that its average reader doesn’t know how many in a score. It took four dutiful scriveners to write that piece. They’re probably all in line for a Pulitzer now.
The US correspondent for a local publication I read (staunch Dem) attended one of the Trump rallies for an investigative piece. Aside from the usual surprise that these were apparently normal, decent people rather than the neo-Nazis and racists he’d been led to believe, people leaving early was another thing that stood out for him. Trump showed up very late and went on for a long time, and lots of people left before he even began.
As Lambert said, it seemed like a non-issue – the whole thing was like a big celebration or block party running on vibes. I would guess it’s as much about the movement as it is about Trump himself.
Nice Hiroshige! And a nice “plant”. I have a thing for sunsets/rises (I admit we’re not morning folk).
Lambert, seeing the rain/atmosphere reminds me that a while back I sent you a catalog of my fathers’ work, thinking something might appeal to you, but you’ve not used anything. Is it a question of medium (paper/digital)? If so, there’s a website of his work, though not all that’s in the book, and vice-versa. If you’re easily offended (hah!), stay away from the commentary/cartoons (I’d thought we didn’t post the one about the Easter bunny, but it seems to have, uhh, risen from the dead).
http://www.herbert-katzman-museum.com
“Trump says Liz Cheney is a ‘stupid war hawk who just wants to shoot missiles at people.’
“Harris says Liz Cheney’s endorsement is a ‘profound honor.’
“Which position is correct?”
Trump is of course correct, and for Harris to be profoundly honored by Cheney when the lives of millions are immediately threatened by the policies of such war hawks is discrediting for a possible Commander in Chief.
You gotta say Trump hit that one right on the money!
Kamala and Liz out on the campaign trail together. Why not? It’s not long till Halloween.
In that long email exchange featured there were two familiar names. McGurk of course is a hard-core neocon but there was another person – Dana Stroul, She is quite the piece of work as she was pushing for the US to occupy Syria’s oil reserves to starve the regime of money as well as occupy Syria’s wheat-growing bread basket to literally starve Syrians. Here is a clip showing her at work-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSE3FWKFp4g (2:16 mins)
#JFC …
Ten minutes looking at a painting isn’t long at all.
When my Ex performed with the Women’s Phil at the Legion of Honor in SF I spent most of that time in front of an El Greco that you could feel from across the room.
Perhaps six or seven hours in total, learning to see rather than look takes practice.
Wouldn’t it be funny if in all those regions hit by that hurricane, that it was found that all the computerized voting machine had been flooded & wrecked forcing those States to go to the use of hand-counted paper ballots.
It would be a chance for the hand-counted legal-paper ballot system to vindicate itself. If all people in the “no working machines” zones were to be satisfied of the honesty of the outcome in those zones, no matter what the outcome, they might decide to keep the hand-counted legal-paper ballot system even after machines became re-available, thereby offering an example to the nation.
Major problems being reported for Israeli special forces on the Lebanese border.
Israeli author (claims 22 years in IDF) says has seen sitrep.
•Hezbollah operatives on the other hand are, in some cases, even better equipped compared to our special forces. Using new, never seen before IEDs. Organised and impossible to detect. In one case, they were using loudspeaker to mock our special forces holed in their position.
• Over 300 confirmed dead and injured IDF soldiers sustained over the past 48 hours. Hezb has launched several successful ambushes resulting in high fatalities, particularly within our Special Forces.
@SMensch69
https://x.com/smensch69/status/1841901541592043793?s=46&t=Wxr2HL-wcNn9UTmFnnFLxQ
X account suspended. Thread saved at
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1841901541592043793.html
So report news unfavorable to the Blob and “account suspended”?
Driving through Knoxville Tennessee on I-40 heading west tonight there were billboards for a Trump Superstore and a stripmall store marked the same on the south side of the Interstate. A web search listed several others.
Someone in North Carolina took a long patient view of the flooding river right where he lived. It shows the power of that much water gathered together in that short a time.
https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/1fw597a/he_lost_everything_incredible_footage_from/
Following the above X excerpt I searched for Hümeyra Pamuk´s original account.
The first hit for her X account was this:
““The U.S. has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions,” NBC citing officials briefed”
March 2022
Algos ARE neutral, I knew it.
I read in the Noonan excerpt that . . . ” Ms. Harris insists almost to the point of credibility that the Biden-Harris administration didn’t let the border be overwhelmed, the Biden-Harris administration tried to control the border and put forward the toughest bill and Donald Trump stopped it. And she’s getting away with it! ”
Unless my memory is wrong, the BidenMin did indeed work with the Senate to get a fairly firm ( I don’t know if toughest or not) border bill and Senators, including Republican Senators who were well pleased by it, were going to vote for it. Then Trump instructed them not to . . . . so as to let Trump remain in possession of the border issue to be able to run on it . . . . and it was defeated.
So what exactly is the Harris team “getting away with” by noting that fact in regards to the bill specifically?