2:00PM Water Cooler 10/9/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Back to the mimidae!

Tropical Mockingbird (Mayan), Cerro de Hula, Francisco Morazán, Honduras. “In this recording, we can hear a perfect rendition of the call of the Clay-colored Thrush (Robin) at 3:06 and again at 5:39. There’s also an imitation of American Kestrel at 4:15, and arguably Great-tailed Grackle calls throughout the recording. Northern Flicker is given at 6:32. (These times are approximate and may be slightly off.)” 8:42 (!).

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In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Fun with maps: Helene and Milton could make Pennsylvania the key.
  2. Kamala has a beer with Stephen Colbert; on hurricanes.
  3. Response to Helene in NC.
  4. Boeing talks break down as management walks away from the table.

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Look for the Helpers

Sometimes going viral can be good:

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My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Less than thirty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error, Trump gained a few inches of ground in the trench warfare (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.

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Fun with maps:

1) The current “consensus” state of play, per 270toWin:

2) Leaners and likelies resolved to Red or Blue, leaving the 7 swing states:

3) NV to Kamala, AZ to Trump, the Blue Wall (WI + MI) to Harris, then — because of the Biden Administration’s response to Helene and Milton (see below) — NC and GA to Trump:

QED: PA is the key (but if any only if the Republicans resolve WNC turnout issues IMNSHO).

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Kamala (D): What the heck was she thinking?

For one thing, Californians of Kamala’s class are into wineries, not breweries (and if this is the campaign’s idea of passing the “have a beer with” test, please, stop). So I think Kamala keeps the Miller High Life in the same closet as the Glock (and if I’m wrong, show me one picture over her whole career). More importantly, oppo that Kamala has a drinking problem has been simmering on the right, but never boiled over. Does the campaign really think this is the way to turn down the heat?

“Kamala Harris Cracks Open a Miller High Life With Stephen Colbert on ‘The Late Show'” [Variety]. “When Colbert asked the vice president if Trump lost the 2020 election, she replied, ‘o0You know, when you lost millions of jobs, you lost manufacturing, you lost automotive plants, you lost the election. What does that make you? A loser. This is what somebody at my rallies said. I thought it was funny.’ ‘It’s accurate. It’s accurate,’ Colbert remarked. Harris then said, jokingly, ‘This is what happens when I drink beer.'” • Oh.

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Kamala (D): “The latest union snub for Harris and Walz underscores a bigger problem for their campaign” [Politico]. [T]he International Association of Fire Fighters last week declined to endorse either candidate in the presidential race — a snub of the Walz-Harris campaign that underscores a much larger problem for the ticket. The move completely blindsided the vice president’s team. Harris and Walz, despite their longtime labor ties, are struggling to win over key rank-and-file union members — part of a major political realignment away from the Democratic Party…. In Pennsylvania, a must-win state for Harris, the state firefighters’ union has already decided not to issue its own presidential endorsement. Robert Brooks, who leads the group, said it has ‘never made an endorsement in a Presidential race’ and ‘will continue with that practice and rely on the International Association of Firefighters to handle that.’ Brooks also didn’t think any locals in his state would make their own endorsement. In Michigan, another key swing state, the firefighters’ union is still holding internal meetings to decide whether they want to issue their own endorsement.” • Hmm. I remember in 2016 it was a very big deal when the Firefighters endorsed Obama (“Everybody loves the firefighters”).

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Trump (R): “Trump thrusts hurricane response into center of 2024 campaign” [Politico]. “The White House’s decision to prioritize pushing back on misinformation around the hurricane was driven in part by requests from governors and local politicians for help combating the falsehoods, aides said, with press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre emphasizing on Monday that “elected officials at every level and on both sides of the aisle” had called for an end to the conspiracy theories. In press conferences and television interviews, officials at both FEMA and the White House have devoted the last several days to correcting the falsehoods and criticizing those who have amplified them. With Milton looming, officials say they fear the social media conspiracies could spiral out of control, especially if they are again fanned by Trump and other prominent conservative figures, like Musk.” • But if FEMA doesn’t deliver people will, as usual, take Trump seriously but not literally.

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“The Cataclysmic Post-Election Scenario No One’s Bracing For” [The Bulwark]. “There are multiple scenarios for what the government looks like after the election…. “Kamala Harris being elected president with that GOP-led Senate but also a Republican-controlled House” is the most interesting, because it is entirely plausible and perhaps the most constitutionally precarious scenario. In the event this happens, current House Speaker Mike Johnson would have some extremely difficult choices ahead of him if he wanted to maintain his speakership. But the key one is this: will he have to make promises around not certifying Harris’s win in order to get the support of Trumpists in his caucus to retain his gavel? As former top Republican aide Brendan Buck put it on his podcast recently: “Just a couple days after electing a new speaker, they need to certify the results of the election. What do you think Mike Johnson is, like, doing or saying at that point to try to keep his job? . . . Is he, like, just going to crazy lengths to get the votes to stay there? Or are Republicans just so angry that they throw out Johnson? You know, even if he runs again, not electing a speaker, all that does is, like, you can’t certify an election if you don’t have a House seated yet.” Before the House can do anything—before it can even form—lawmakers have to elect a speaker and adopt a rules package (in that order). This typically occurs on January 3, the day the new Congress is sworn in, giving ample time before the counting of the Electoral College votes on January 6. But if the House is frozen like it was for several days at the start of the 118th Congress—well, no one knows for sure what would happen.” • Somebody’s war gaming this out right now…

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Hurricanes:

NC: “US emergency crews struggle as climate crisis fuels ‘unprecedented’ competing disasters” [Guardian]. “While federal officials have been clear that emergency response agencies have been able to lead on recovery efforts following Hurricane Helene, strongly disputing rampant misinformation about misuse or politicization of the funds in areas devastated by the storm, the competing disasters nonetheless have severely strained the agencies. The homeland security secretary, Alejandro Mayorkas, told reporters last week that Fema ‘does not have the funds to make it through the season.” Joe Biden echoed those concerns in a letter to Congress, calling on legislators to increase funding to ensure Fema won’t have to “forego longer-term recovery activities in favor of meeting urgent needs.” • I saw plenty of obviously inorganic tweets in the early days (and never linked to them). But it has also been crystal clear that WNC is in real trouble (and our readers reinforce this). I’m agnostic overall on FEMA’s performance, but here is a strong indicator it’s not going well. I searched Associated Press on “FEMA.” Here are the results:

I think, at this point, I may be forgiven for giving consideration to the idea that AP hasn’t done any actual reporting from the ground because they know they won’t like what they find (and could even be accused of “disinformation” themselves, now that I think of it). Some local coverage:

NC: “Helene fact check: Here are the rumors and the reality in Western North Carolina” [Charlotte Observer]. A sampling of the less wild stuff: “FEMA has sent more than 1,200 urban search-and-rescue personnel to Western North Carolina. On Sunday, a FEMA task force was combing the Swannanoa River near the Whitson Avenue Bridge, searching for victims of the storm. They used excavators to pull cars from the water and search dogs to locate people beneath rubble…. Victims anywhere can apply for FEMA aid at DisasterAssistance.gov. But many residents remain without power or internet access…. FEMA funds are not considered income and are not taxable. Applying for disaster relief will not affect eligibility for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP or any other federal and state benefits. Assistance from FEMA is a grant and does not have to be repaid. It is not just for homeowners. Renters can receive help for lost personal property. FEMA can’t provide money for losses that are insured, however.” Yes, let’s just socialize the insurance industry. I’m guessing that the scholarship would show that rumors always follow hard upon natural disasters; it’s not all politicized, nefarious, or an excuse to crank of the Censorship Industrial Complex (as if one were needed). Sometimes, however:

See the Community Note; it’s AI slop. (See also 404 media.) Kremer, from Georgia, is an RNC National Committeewoman.

NC: “What people in Western North Carolina had to say as supplies arrived by helicopter” [Charlotte Observer]. “[Loretta Zahn] and her neighbors watched as helicopters landed near their homes in the Poplar area to deliver food, water and a temporary satellite that would give the couple the connection they needed to confirm they were each safe. Like many other areas in Western North Carolina, Poplar is depending on these airdrops from the National Guard, or Amazon in the case of the satellite, as many roads were destroyed by Hurricane Helene and have cut them off…. The Charlotte Observer spoke with people in two communities hit by Helene’s flooding while traveling with the National Guard as soldiers delivered supplies, flying from Salisbury… Clearing the roads has ‘all been done by the locals right here,’ said Jody Murphy, 52, who watched the helicopters arrive with his son Jett, 24, and Zahn. People used their machinery, he said… They’ve been told it would take about eight months before things were back to ‘normal,’ but they didn’t seem confident about that outlook.” In Buladean: “The time it will take for the area to recover seems unclear, residents said. They’ve heard one to three months.” • Charlotte Observer’s search yields many more hits on “FEMA” than Associated Press. Here’s one:

NC: “Analysis: Digging into FEMA spending claims on the campaign trail” [Charlotte Observer]. “But a history of the program shows policymakers on both sides of the aisle, including Trump, have cut spending deals that included a small slice of Federal Emergency Management Agency appropriations specifically to help states and localities care for migrants released into their communities, totaling just over $1.7 billion. During that time, FEMA’s disaster relief fund has gotten several orders of magnitude more money, nearly $244 billion, and the two funding streams are entirely separate.” • Then again, Ukraine and Israel. Readers may do better than I did, but I still don’t see a lot of stories about FEMA action. Funding, yes. Misinformation, yes. But you’ll note the above story is about the National Guard, and doesn’t mention FEMA at all.

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MI: “A big Seattle name is in the election battlegrounds — helping Trump” [Seattle Times]. “Seattle’s star socialist is at it again. This time, she’s making news with some uncomfortable truth-telling about her own aims that’s bound to make many Seattleites squirm. Former Seattle City Councilmember Kshama Sawant was out in Michigan over the weekend, stumping for the Green Party presidential campaign of Jill Stein. Democrats have long suspected that Stein is a form of political malware. She pops up every four years espousing desirable lefty positions. But her ‘Green’ campaign has no purpose other than to try to hand the election to Republicans, by siphoning off a handful of liberal votes Far-fetched? That’s what I always thought. But Sawant, speaking at a Stein rally, admitted that it’s true, ‘We need to be clear about what our goals are,’ Sawant said in a speech on Sunday in Dearborn, Michigan. ‘We are not in a position to win the White House. But we do have a real opportunity to win something historic. We could deny Kamala Harris the state of Michigan. And the polls show that most likely Harris cannot win the election without Michigan.’ So the goal is ‘fighting to defeat Harris, not just symbolically but in reality,’ Sawant said. ‘This is ground zero to punish Kamala Harris and defeat her.'” • Punish for what….

PA: “Inside the Battle for America’s Most Consequential Battleground State” [New York Times].

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Infection: H5N1

“As bird flu outbreak expands in California, dairy farms report it’s worse than they expected” [CNN]. [F]armers and veterinarians in California are warning that the infection seems to be striking herds more severely than it has in other states, leading to higher percentages of sick and dead cows in affected herds. There are no signs of more serious illness in people. Like the first two human cases in California, this third case involves a farmworker who was in contact with sick dairy cattle. Investigators don’t see any connections between the most recent case and either of the first two, suggesting that this is another instance of animal-to-human transmission, the California Department of Public Health said in a news release. In all three cases, symptoms were mild and involved red, bloodshot eyes, a sign of conjunctivitis.” And: “While public health officials are taking the infections in stride, outside experts say each new human infection is a sign that the outbreak is not under control and that the people who are working with cattle and other sick animals are not being adequately protected.” • So-called “public health” officials are really good at taking things in stride, hence the million and counting Covid deaths in the United States.

Yikes:

And:

(The account is a California-based veterinarian, so this looks legit.)

Morbidity and Mortality

“Turkish Airlines pilot dies mid-flight, prompting emergency JFK landing” [Daily News]. • I wonder why. ‘Tis a mystery!

Elite Maleficence

Not on my Bingo card: Dominic Cummings signal boosting the UK Covid Inquiry and having gotten ventilation right:

@_CatintheHat has essentially been live-blogging the Inquiry. I don’t find “The system is working as intended” particularly Delphic; I quoted Stafford Beers the other day: “[T]he Purpose Of a System Is What It Does.” I never found Cummings to be a particularly sympathetic figure, but as an eminence grise he was certainly in a different intellectual class from Steve Bannon (of blessed memory). Also:

The elites protect themselves. Just not you.

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: CDC’s wastewater map should have been updated by Friday at 8:00pm. This is Tuesday. It hasn’t been.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC October 5 Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC September 28 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 28

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data October 7:

National [6] CDC September 14:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens October 7: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 5:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC September 16: Variants[10] CDC September 16:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Still some hot spots, but I can’t draw circles around entire regions this week. Good news!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.

[10] (Travelers: Variants).

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Wholesale: “United States Wholesale Inventories” [Stats Watch]. “US wholesale inventories rose by 0.1% month-over-month to $904.8 billion in August 2024, slightly below the advance estimate of a 0.2% rise and following a revised 0.2% increase in the prior month. Stocks of durable goods increased slightly faster (0.3% vs 0.1% in July), mostly computer equipment (+2.3%), professional equipment (+1.3%), hardware (+0.8%) and machinery (+0.5%). Conversely, nondurable goods inventories saw a mild decrease (-0.1% vs 0.5%), namely miscellaneous non-durable goods (-2.7%), petroleum (-1.7%) and drugs (-0.2%).”

* * *

Associated Press]. “Boeing has withdrawn a contract offer that would have given striking workers 30% raises over four years after talks broke down. The manufacturer said that it had boosted its offer for union workers for take-home pay and retirement benefits during two days of negotiations. ‘Unfortunately, the union did not seriously consider our proposals. Instead, the union made non-negotiable demands far in excess of what can be accepted if we are to remain competitive as a business,’ Boeing said in a prepared statement. ‘Given that position, further negotiations do not make sense at this point and our offer has been withdrawn.’ The union said that it surveyed its members after receiving Boeing’s most recent offer, and it was rejected overwhelmingly…. The strike is stretching on as Boeing deals with multiple other issues. It has shut down production of 737s, 777s and 767s. Work on 787s continues with nonunion workers in South Carolina. S&P Global Ratings put Boeing Co. on its ‘CreditWatch Negative’ list this week, citing increased financial risk because of the strike. ‘We estimate the company will incur a cash outflow of approximately $10 billion in 2024, due in part to working capital buildup to support manufacturing process overhaul and costs associated with the strike,’ S&P wrote.”

“Talks break down, Boeing withdraws latest contract offer from striking workers” [KIRO]. “Dennis Tajer, a spokesperson for the union representing American Airlines pilots, put pressure on Boeing to approve striking machinists’ demands, including higher pay and improved safety oversight roles for machinists in the union — the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM). ‘I want this contract settled so that we know we have the proper safety margin to fly our passengers,’ Tajer, a Boeing 737 captain, said. ‘Whenever there’s a change at Boeing, the IAM is not allowed in the process to discuss that with Boeing management. They’re a team. It’s a symphony of safety, just like at the airlines. Unions work with the management teams to ensure that our passengers are safe.'” • A “team.” Isn’t it pretty to think so.

Manufacturing: “Boeing weighs options for raising cash as ratings downgrade looms, sources say” [Reuters]. “Boeing is examining options to raise billions of dollars through a sale of stock and equity-like securities, two sources familiar with the matter said, as the planemaker tries to avoid slipping in to junk territory on its credit ratings…, These options include selling common stock as well as securities such as mandatory convertible bonds and preferred equity, according to the sources. One of the sources said they suggested to Boeing that it should raise around $10 billion.

Such hybrid bonds can be treated as equity capital by rating agencies, which means issuing them would not add to debt to the same extent as selling bonds, while also being potentially more favorable for existing shareholders. Banks have also been building so-called shadow books, sounding out interest from investors for such securities in case Boeing decided to go ahead, the sources said. Some investors have reached out to banks to tell them they were interested in purchasing Boeing’s preferred securities if they were issued, two of the sources said…. It is not clear, however, whether any of the fundraising options that involve raising cash through instruments other than common stock would satisfy credit agencies.” • Who needs real engineers when we have financial engineers?

Manufacturing: “Months Before Ethiopian Crash, Boeing Turned Aside Carrier’s Questions” [New York Times]. “In late 2018, Ethiopian Airlines’ chief pilot sent an urgent message to Boeing, the manufacturer of the 737 Max airliner. Barely a month earlier, a 737 Max operated by Lion Air of Indonesia had plunged into the sea, killing everyone on board. The cause appeared to be a problem with the plane’s flight control system. The Ethiopian carrier also flew the 737 Max, and the chief pilot wanted more information from Boeing about the emergency procedures to follow if the same problem that doomed the Lion Air flight should recur. At the time, Boeing was providing detailed briefings to pilots in the United States who were asking the same types of questions about how to respond. But Boeing chose not to answer the Ethiopian pilot’s questions beyond referring him to a public document it had already issued after the Lion Air crash. Boeing said in its response that it was prohibited from giving additional information because it was providing technical support to Indonesian authorities investigating that crash. Instead, Boeing briefly summarized the document, which is dated Nov. 6, 2018, and is called an operations manual bulletin, according to email exchanges between the chief pilot and Boeing made public after The New York Times initiated legal action to unseal filings in a related criminal case. Three months after the request by Ethiopian Airlines, one of its 737 Max’s nose-dived into the ground after takeoff from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, killing all 157 people on board. The main cause was found to be the same flawed flight control system responsible for the Lion Air flight crash, a failure that presented the Ethiopian Airlines pilots with the very same kinds of life-or-death decisions about how to respond that the chief pilot had asked about months earlier. While it is unclear whether the Ethiopian Airlines pilots could have avoided crashing had Boeing provided a more detailed response, aviation experts said the lack of additional information most likely contributed to the inability of the pilots to pull themselves out of a fatal nosedive once the flight control software system malfunctioned. ‘Who knows what they would have done with the information, but not having it seals the deal,’ said Dennis Tajer, a spokesman for the Allied Pilots Association, which represents American Airlines pilots.”

Supply Chain:

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 72 Greed (previous close: 70 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 67 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 8 at 1:57:20 PM ET.

Gallery

“The Surprising Backstory Behind Gustav Klimt’s Obsession With Gold” [ArtNet]. ” His father, Ernst Klimt, was a goldsmith and an engraver. Certainly, Klimt’s dexterity with gold and his appreciation for the so-called decorative arts were fueled by his familial household. Much like Botticelli, who started his career in goldsmithing and continued to adorn his canvases with gold, Klimt embraced the material for its beauty and symbolism…. When it came to his passion for gold, religious iconography of the Byzantine era came to the fore. In 1903, Klimt took pivotal trips to Venice and (twice) to Ravenna, Italy. The artist wrote to his romantic partner Emilie Flöge that he considered Ravenna’s glittering mosaics “incredibly stunning,” including the famed depictions of Emperor and Empress Justinian and Theodora. Art historians have found compositional parallels between Klimt’s regal portrait of Viennese socialite Adele Bloch-Bauer and the centuries-old rendering of the Byzantine Empress Theodora…. In Byzantine mosaics and icons, gold signaled an eternal realm, existing beyond time and saturated by divine light. The flattened, discarnate figures in these artworks symbolized the out-of-body experience of religious transcendence. Klimt uses gold to create a similar sense of timeless infinity; the backgrounds of his Golden Period are dotted with glittering flecks of gold, but also silver and platinum, creating an almost cosmic-looking backdrop for his scenes…. Looking closely at the man and woman’s garments in The Kiss, one notices Klimt has used gold to create upright, rectilinear forms on the man’s robe, which offer a masculine counterpoint to the swirling, ovoid forms on the woman’s gown (Klimt was fascinated by microscopic biology, cells, and fertilization, which was being researched intensely by early 20th-century scientists).” • Worth reading in full:

Health

“Brain’s ‘diary’ discovered: Why today’s stress matters two weeks from now” [StudyFinds]. N = 1. “Researchers from Aalto University and the University of Oulu in Finland successfully demonstrated the long-lasting impact of our daily habits on brain connectivity, offering new insights into neural plasticity. Scientists now believe our brain’s internal communication patterns are not static but rather in a constant state of flux, responding to our experiences over extended periods.” Dear Lord. Whoever would have thought anything different? More: “Physical activity also emerged as a significant factor in brain connectivity. Days with less physical activity were associated with reduced integration between the frontoparietal network – crucial for cognitive control and decision-making – and other brain regions. This implies that being more sedentary might make it harder for different parts of the brain to work together efficiently.” • The author is also the test subject. The original study is at PLOS, if readers wish to dig deeper.

News of the Wired

“Germans decry influence of English as ‘idiot’s apostrophe’ gets official approval” [The Guardian]. “A relaxation of official rules around the correct use of apostrophes in German has not only irritated grammar sticklers but triggered existential fears around the pervasive influence of English. Establishments that feature their owners’ names, with signs like ‘Rosi’s Bar’ or ‘Kati’s Kiosk’ are a common sight around German towns and cities, but strictly speaking they are wrong: unlike English, German does not traditionally use apostrophes to indicate the genitive case or possession. The correct spelling, therefore, would be ‘Rosis Bar’, ‘Katis Kiosk’, or, as in the title of a recent viral hit, Barbaras Rhabarberbar. However, guidelines issued by the body regulating the use of Standard High German orthography have clarified that the use of the punctuation mark colloquially known as the Deppenapostroph (‘idiot’s apostrophe’) has become so widespread that it is permissible – as long as it separates the genitive ‘s’ within a proper name.” • Will no one consider the greengrocer’s?

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

TH writes: “I’m not sure these are eligible after being picked and put on sale, but I hope you’ll be amused. I had never noticed these before. They have a nice rich flavor but to my taste could be a little more acid.” I must admit these are plants within the meaning of the act. But it would be nice to have some garden pictures, too.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

16 comments

  1. lyman alpha blob

    Not a good look for the post office – https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2024/10/09/the-boston-city-council-held-an-emergency-hearing-on-late-mail-delivery-the-usps-didnt-show-up/

    “Let me be clear about what we’re experiencing in our communities. Residents are missing critical communications including legal documents and financial statements. Vulnerable neighbors are experiencing delays in vital medications. Small businesses are struggling with unreliable mail services,” Durkan said. “Most critically, as we approach election season, unreliable postal service threatens to undermine our democratic process.”

    While nobody from the Post Office showed up, some internal USPS emails were accidentally forwarded to the city council where the USPS claimed this was all due to a political agenda on the part of the Boston council.

    I can personally vouch for the fact that over a period of years, checks sent to my company have been severely delayed or completely lost on a pretty regular basis. Maybe this was a politically motivated claim somehow, but if so, show up and prove it.

    Why anybody would trust their ballot to the deliberately and bipartisanly crapified USPS is beyond me.

    Reply
  2. DJG, Reality Czar

    Kamala, the empty vessel, knows nothing about foreign policy except what she is told to spout:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT2fnkFZXTU

    Breaking Points with Saager Enjeti, who proves that he is a servant of empire in a snazzy tie. He keeps repeating the blather about the U.S. being all-powerful and causing its own problems by lack of internal unity (what can he mean?). Ryan Grim is being too shy again, and he truly should have smashed a pie in Enjeti’s overly curated face.

    Kamala is a dolt. She is making Hillary Clinton, the very epitome of mediocrity, look like a sage.

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  3. John k

    Re the map showing trump with 262…
    Imo trump will sweep the 3 southern swings, and that pa is really a tossup. But I think WI will likely go trump, which would get him to 272.
    Plus we maybe haven’t seen the results in the polls of vp debate or the hurricanes. Seems trump has a pretty good chance unless the ballot counting is rigged.

    Reply
  4. Samuel Conner

    > So the goal is ‘fighting to defeat Harris, not just symbolically but in reality,’

    I find this report that the Greens are playing “hardball” politics — (not explicitly stated in the extract, but surely what is happening IRL) “give us policies we like or we will campaign for them ourselves, and cost you at the ballot box” — very encouraging. More of this, please.

    Reply
    1. Pat

      And the Democratic strategy of how to deal with this may backfire. Stripping third parties from the ballot is NOT going to convince people to vote for you.

      But beyond denying Harris the win voting third party is hard on the Democratic Party’s policies and choices. In other years I admit that no option to do so might have kept a few wavering soon to be former Democratic voters in the fold. But in this environment if people are seriously looking at a third party they are not going to meekly vote for one of the candidates they rejected already because that party is not on the ballot. It may be less embarrassing and easier to ignore, but not voting for the top of the ballot would help Trump just as much as voting for Stein. But anyone who votes for Stein or the Conservative or the Libertarian is yelling that these candidates do not represent them and then there is the fact those percentages actually get reported.

      Hardball politics are long overdue.

      Reply
    2. Adam Eran

      I’d be interested to see whether there are consultations between Harris and the Greens’ campaigns…and whether the Greens will believe anything Harris says.

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    3. Verifyfirst

      ’ So the goal is ‘fighting to defeat Harris, not just symbolically but in reality,’ Sawant said. ‘This is ground zero to punish Kamala Harris and defeat her.’” • Punish for what….

      Punish for Gaza. Simple.

      Having voted Dem for 46 years of voting, (and donated and door knocked and phone banked and even gone to state conventions), in Michigan, union, white, male, Genocide has proven to be a bridge to far for me. Genocide is not a lesser evil. There is no excuse, no “reason” that can suffice.

      So now I have a Stein lawn sign, and donated to her as well. Genocide loses elections, Joe.

      Reply
  5. antidlc

    RE: Baxter, supply chain, IV

    in today’s LINKS, I mentioned that B. Braun produces IV bags and has a plant and distribution center in Daytona Beach.

    The company put out a statement on their preparations for the hurricane:
    https://www.bbraunusa.com/en/about-us/contact/customer-resources/b–braun-medical-statement-on-hurricane-milton-preparedness.html

    We are focused on protecting our people and mitigating the impact of the storm on our IV solutions supply. To safeguard the supply of finished products, we worked closely with the federal government, specifically the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), to leverage their resources, allowing us to move inventory from our Daytona Beach distribution center to a secure, temperature-controlled facility north of Florida. Once the storm passes, the product will return to the distribution center.

    The Daytona Beach facility is a key part of our plan to help address the shutdown of Baxter’s IV solutions manufacturing facility in North Carolina. In partnership with ASPR, we are taking immediate steps to increase production of critical IV fluids at our plant in Irvine, CA and will resume this plan at Daytona Beach following Hurricane Milton’s departure. B. Braun supports the recommendations of the American Hospital Association, ASHP and other organizations in encouraging healthcare providers across the country to conserve their use of IV products. We are committed to doing everything we can to help ensure that patients have access to the IV therapies they need.

    Reply
  6. Tom Stone

    When Harris brought her Bro in Law into the campaign it reassured donors like Reid Hoffman and guaranteed a LOT more $ for her campaign.
    Tony West was chief of litigation for UBER before moving to her campaign, where he became well acquainted with Walz…
    Unions are understandably wary of this move because Tony West is one of the main reasons Gig workers are contractors rather than employees.
    Selling Harris as the “New Eleanor Roosevelt, but straight” is going to be an uphill battle.

    Reply
    1. Devondre

      Illegals can be hired as independent contractors to drive for Uber.

      His sister in law is providing Tony with a lot of profit and wage lowering opportunities. That’s family loyalty.

      Reply
  7. Samuel Conner

    > I must admit these are plants within the meaning of the act. But it would be nice to have some garden pictures, too

    Think of all the seeds in there, waiting to be saved. That might be a photo of next year’s garden, and it looks like it could be a big one!

    —-

    Is “Jackpot” an actual variety, or has that seller been reading William Gibson? (I suppose it could be both, with the choice of tomato variety to grow influenced by the novel.)

    Reply
    1. doug

      The Jackpot tomato is a F1 hybrid, ie a first generation offspring between unrelated parents. This means the seeds will not come true. Tomato seeds that do come true are from ‘open pollinated’ tomatoes, such as heirloom tomatoes.

      Reply
  8. Ranger Rick

    Back in high school, the Ancient Civilizations class was taught by the wrestling coach. Mens sana in corpore sano, he liked to say. The idea that physical activity is linked to mental health is positively pre-historic.

    Reply
  9. Carla

    “Hmm. I remember in 2016 it was a very big deal when the Firefighters endorsed Obama (“Everybody loves the firefighters”).” HUH? Lambert, Obama didn’t run in ’16.

    Reply

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