Yves here. Below is some additional information that may help readers better assess the background to Iran’s missile strikes on Israel and their impact.
Readers may recall that immediately before Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassim Nasrallah and other senior Hezbollah and Iran Revolutionary Guard officials meeting with him, the US was broadcasting that it plus 12 countries, including some Arab states, were pushing hard for a 21 day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. We thought this was too obviously a White House serving gambit, that it was intended to kick the can of a wider war down the road enough for it not to the a hot issue for the US elections. We were very skeptical.
While we were drafting our post, the Wall Street Journal reported that Israel immediately threw cold water on the idea and launched more airstrikes.
We now learn that Nasrallah had agreed to the ceasefire shortly before he was assassinated and Israel or the US was affirmatively duplicitous, as if that comes as a surprise. Antiwar summarizes a CNN interview with the Lebanese foreign minister:
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib has said that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah agreed to a US and French-proposed 21-day ceasefire with Israel right before Israel killed him.
Habib said the US and France told Lebanon that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also agreed to the ceasefire proposal.
“They told us that Mr. Netanyahu agreed on this, and so we also got the agreement of Hezbollah on that. And, you know what happened since then,” Habib told CNN host Christiane Amanpour.
I would put my bet on the misrepresentation being US doing, to secure agreement from Hezbollah and then hope they could use that to browbeat Israel into what it would contend was a short pause. Recall that the US has presented ceasefire proposals as originating with Israel and later ‘fessed up that they came from Biden.
Second is a useful report from Electronic Initifada from Ali Abunimah, who videoed the incoming “river of missiles” as they flew over Jordan. He continues with verified videos of Iran missiles approaching and then striking in Israel. Recall the original estimates were 200 to 400 missiles. Israel is now claiming 181. Looking at these videos, a higher number seems plausible. Abunimah says he counted 24 missiles hitting the Navatim air bases in 30 seconds on one clip.
These videos show the large number of strikes on Navatim, where Israel’s F-35s lived, and, as Abunimah also points out was a key point of entry, for US weapons deliveries. There has been a lot of skepticism of Iran’s claim that it destroyed 20 of Israel’s 35 F-35s. None other than Military Watch treats that as credible, and further reports: Massive Iranian Missile Strike ‘Completely Destroys’ Israeli F-35 Base Nevatim: Stealth Fighters Destroyed – Reports. From that story:
A massive Iranian ballistic missile strike on targets in Israel launched on October 1 has targeted Nevatim Air Base, among other key targets in the country. The facility hosts both of the Israeli Air Force’s F-35 fifth generation fighter squadrons, and was previously intended to host a third squadron of the fighters after they were delivered. Iranian media sources have reported that the facility was “completely destroyed” in the attack. Footage from Israel has confirmed the impact of dozens of ballistic missiles which Israel’s air defence network failed to shoot down, with targets impacted including the headquarters of the intelligence agency Mossad, located in Tel Aviv which was levelled by the attack. Labelled “True Promise 2,” the operation follows a year of escalating tensions between Tehran and Tel Aviv, and represents a long awaited retaliatory attack after an Israeli strike on Tehran on July 31. Iran was previously reported to have agreed not to retaliate if Israel deescalated hostilities, with Israel’s invasion and intensive bombardment of Lebanon and assassination of the leadership of the Iranian aligned militia group Hezbollah having been seen to have broken this agreement.
Reports have indicated that the bulk of Nevatim Air Base’s F-35s – over 20 fighters – were destroyed in the attack, with the stealth fighters representing one of the most high value targets in Israel. The facility has been widely referred to as Israel’s “most important air base” due to the importance of the F-35 in the country’s fleet. Israel fields just two squadrons of the costly stealth jets, and relies on them heavily as the remainder of the fighter fleet relies on largely obsolete avionics and old mechanically scanned array radars. F-35s play a central role in Israeli plans for potential attacks on Iran, with their stealth capabilities and advanced avionics, including electronic warfare systems and other air defence suppression features, making them optimal assets for such operations. The destruction of F-35s is thus an important step towards limiting Israel’s ability to respond with further escalation….
The current state of the Israeli fighter fleet remains highly uncertain, and alongside the reported destruction of Nevatim Air Base, other fighter losses have been reported including losses of F-15s at Hatzerim Air Base.
Even though the headline quote comes from Iran, the intensity of the missile barrage shown below makes the idea credible. Even though US intelligence had picked up the coming attack and gave Israel some time to get air assets out of harm’s way. But there are limits to what could have been achieved. From comments yesterday:
shargash
Regarding Israeli f-35s, Hurricane Michael damaged about 1/3 of the f-22s stored at Tyndal AFB, because they were unable to fly (down for maintenance). F-35s have a much lower readiness than f-22s, so it seems unlikely to me that the Israelis could fly them all out.ISL
The full mission readiness rate of F-35s is 29%. As far as flyable, 50% undergoing maintenance and not flyable in a 2 hr window seems not a bad estimate.https://breakingdefense.com/2023/03/engine-woes-dominate-f-35-hearing-but-other-issues-remain/
I am not an expert in airport/airfield design. Readers like to point out that runways are easily repaired. I doubt the same is true of the critical air control tower and related systems. If Iran merely destroyed those components, one might be able say Iran had effectively destroyed the airbase.
The video below also provides evidence that Iran did hit and may well have destroyed the Mossad Unit 8200 building. It also shows what look to be much faster, perhaps hypersonic missiles striking the Tel Nof airbase. That suggests it was a very high priority target. But I have yet to see much about those attacks.
Abunimah also observed that conducting the attack at night meant that it could be widely seen across the Middle East, greatly boosting morale, and correspondingly was also visible all over Israel. He points out the shocked and dismayed gasps on the Israeli videos, and that these attacks were nothing like the now-familiar Hezbollah rocket barrages.
Predictably, Israel refuses to accept any constraints. The Hill reports this morning: Israel defies Biden in Lebanon, testing US support.
By Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J. S. Davies, the authors ofWar in Ukraine: Making Sense of a Senseless Conflict, published by OR Books in November 2022. Medea Benjamin is the cofounder of CODEPINK for Peace, and the author of several books, including Inside Iran: The Real History and Politics of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Nicolas J. S. Davies is an independent journalist, a researcher for CODEPINK and the author of Blood on Our Hands: The American Invasion and Destruction of Iraq
On October 1, Iran fired about 180 missiles at Israel in response to Israel’s recent assassinations of leaders of its Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), Hezbollah and Hamas. There are conflicting reports about how many of the missiles struck their targets and if there were any deaths. But Israel is now considering a counterattack that could propel it into an all-out war with Iran, with the U.S. in tow.
For years, Iran has been trying to avoid such a war. That is why it signed the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement with the United States, the U.K., France, Germany, Russia, China and the European Union. Donald Trump unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of the JCPOA in 2018, and despite Joe Biden’s much-touted differences with Trump, he failed to restore U.S. compliance. Instead, he tried to use Trump’s violation of the treaty as leverage to demand further concessions from Iran. This only served to further aggravate the schism between the United States and Iran, which have had no diplomatic relations since 1980.
Now, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees his long-awaited chance to draw the United States into war with Iran. By killing Iranian military leaders and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil, as well as attacking Iran’s allies in Lebanon and Yemen, Netanyahu provoked a military response from Iran that has given him an excuse to widen the conflict even further. Tragically, there are warmongering U.S. officials who would welcome a war on Iran, and many more who would blindly go along with it.
Iran’s newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, campaigned on a platform of reconciling with the West. When he came to New York to speak at the UN General Assembly on September 25, he was accompanied by three members of Iran’s JCPOA negotiating team: former foreign minister Javad Zarif; current foreign minister Abbas Araghchi; and deputy foreign minister Majid Ravanchi.
President Pezeshkian’s message in New York was conciliatory. With Zarif and Araghchi at his side at a press conference on September 23, he talked of peace, and of reviving the dormant nuclear agreement. “Vis-a-vis the JCPOA, we said 100 times we are willing to live up to our agreements,” he said. “We do hope we can sit at the table and hold discussions.”
On the crisis in the Middle East, Pezeshkian said that Iran wanted peace and had exercised restraint in the face of Israel’s genocide in Gaza, its assassinations of resistance leaders and Iranian officials, and its war on its neighbors.
“Let’s create a situation where we can co-exist,” said Pezeshkian. “Let’s try to resolve tensions through dialogue…We are willing to put all of our weapons aside so long as Israel will do the same.” He added that Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while Israel is not, and that Israel’s nuclear arsenal is a serious threat to Iran.
Pezeshkian reiterated Iran’s desire for peace in his speech at the UN General Assembly.
I am the president of a country that has endured threats, war, occupation, and sanctions throughout its modern history,” he said. “Others have neither come to our assistance nor respected our declared neutrality. Global powers have even sided with aggressors. We have learned that we can only rely on our own people and our own indigenous capabilities. The Islamic Republic of Iran seeks to safeguard its own security, not to create insecurity for others. We want peace for all and seek no war or quarrel with anyone.
The U.S. response to Iran’s restraint throughout this crisis has been to keep sending destructive weapons to Israel, with which it has devastated Gaza, killed tens of thousands of women and children, bombed neighboring capitals, and beefed up the forces it would need to attack Iran.
That includes a new order for 50 F-15EX long-range bombers, with 750 gallon fuel tanks for the long journey to Iran. That arms deal still has to pass the Senate, where Senator Bernie Sanders is leading the opposition.
On the diplomatic front, the U.S. vetoed successive cease-fire resolutions in the UN Security Council and hijacked Qatar and Egypt’s cease-fire negotiations to provide diplomatic cover for unrestricted genocide.
Military leaders in the United States and Israel appear to be arguing against war on Iran, as they have in the past. Even George W. Bush and Dick Cheney balked at launching another catastrophic war based on lies against Iran, after the CIA publicly admitted in its 2006 National Intelligence Estimate that Iran was not developing nuclear weapons.
When Trump threatened to attack Iran, Tulsi Gabbard warned him that a U.S. war on Iran would be so catastrophic that it would finally, retroactively, make the war on Iraq look like the “cakewalk” the neocons had promised it would be.
But neither U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin nor Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant can control their countries’ war policies, which are in the hands of political leaders with political agendas. Netanyahu has spent many years trying to draw the United States into a war with Iran, and has kept escalating the Gaza crisis for a year, at the cost of tens of thousands of innocent lives, with that goal clearly in mind.
Biden has been out of his depth throughout this crisis, relying on political instincts from an era when acting tough and blindly supporting Israel were politically safe positions for American politicians. Secretary of State Antony Blinken rose to power through the National Security Council and as a Senate staffer, not as a diplomat, riding Biden’s coat-tails into a senior position where he is as out of his depth as his boss.
Meanwhile, pro-Iran militia groups in Iraq warn that, if the U.S. joins in strikes on Iran, they will target U.S. bases in Iraq and the region.
So we are careening toward a catastrophic war with Iran, with no U.S. diplomatic leadership and only Trump and Harris waiting in the wings. As Trita Parsi wrote in Responsible Statecraft, “If U.S. service members find themselves in the line of fire in an expanding Iran-Israel conflict, it will be a direct result of this administration’s failure to use U.S. leverage to pursue America’s most core security interest here — avoiding war.”
Israel’s intentions are pretty clear when it kills the Hamas lead negotiator (reputed to have been a moderate) and then Nasrallah just after he had agreed to the White House 21 day ceasefire proposal.
There is no serious desire for peace in Netenyahu’s government.
Historically, when one nations murders the diplomats of another in the middle of a negotiation, that means only one thing – a declaration of war to the end.
“Madness? This is ISRAEL!”
“Historically, when one nation murders the diplomats of another…”
I do not think there has been mention that Presidents Ford, Carter, Reagan and George HW Bush each adhered to a policy of no assassination and the policy was made more explicit and strengthened with each president. The policy was discarded and immediately on Biden coming to the presidency the approval of an American assassination of an Iranian official by the Trump administration was applauded.
From my perspective, the Biden administration has been shockingly supportive of state violence from the beginning. Violent neoconservative policy has come to characterize Washington Democrats from the time Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State:
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/06/opinion/sunday/are-neocons-getting-ready-to-ally-with-hillary-clinton.html
July 5, 2014
The Next Act of the Neocons
Are Neocons Getting Ready to Ally With Hillary Clinton?
Thanks for this Yves. One of the best sourced and credible write-ups I seen and heard about the Iran strike.
More good news for your day, apparently Isreal attacked Russia’s Hmeimim airbase in Syria :(
https://thecradle.co/articles/syrian-russian-air-defenses-confront-violent-israeli-attack-near-strategic-airbase
Other reports claim these attacks just happened “near” the airbase but Syrian media says the attacks happened an hour after Iranian planes landed there.
https://www.defensemirror.com/news/37819/Israel_Strikes_Near_Russian_Air_Base_in_Syria_Amid_Broader_Regional_Bombing_Campaign
The airbase is co-located with Bassel al-Assad International Airport, which may have been the intended target.
Today Russia is starting send humanitarian help to Lebanon, I wonder if it’s going trough Kheimim air base? I also wonder how the locals perceive the different approach Russia and USA have to the region…
I have no idea why but several months ago the head of Likud declared Russia to be an enemy of Israel. Well, Zionist Israel at least. This sounds like Israel is giving Russia in Syria a warning, by bombing so close, to not let Iranian planes land at their base. The same way that they threatened to shoot down Iranian passenger airlines flying into Lebanon. Is Netanyahu trying to drag Russian in a greater Middle East war as well? Do they really want to go there?
I was thinking about that and wether the Russians are prepared from an air attack or even special operations attack by Israel yesterday. Not that I conjured it, just hoping that there is enough alertness to expect such attacks and for capacity to repel them.
Russian ambassador to Israel warns Russian citizens to leave the country TASS
https://tass.ru/politika/22032721
What a mess this American perfidy has gotten us into.
Israei officials have admitted (NBC story) that Nasrallah would only agree to a ceasefire on the fundamental condition that Israel withdrew from Gaza and Israel would not accept this so.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/lebanon-live-updates-rcna173122#rcrd57180
So, rather than have Hezbollah claim the moral high ground, assassinated him.
There are commercial satellite pictures emerging of the Israeli airbase damage but I have no skill in aerial interpretation. You can judge the claims of substantial damage for yourself but without before and after shots, it is really hard to tell.
https://nitter.poast.org/MyLordBebo/status/1841760963629891878#m
Hatzerim airbase, allegedly
https://nitter.poast.org/Schizointel/status/1841711617748115553#m
Nevatim airbase, allegedly (linkedin from Simplicius X account)
Even though US intelligence had picked up the coming attack and gave Israel some time to get air assets out of harm’s way
I’m somewhat confused on this point since I’ve read that Iran actually informed the U.S. they were intending to fire missiles into Israel. Did U.S. Intelligence get tipped off by Iran, was it provided by Iran, or both? Seems odd, but that is also what was reported in the earlier Iran “demonstration” of their capabilities.
No, Iran has denied notifying the US.
The US may have picked up a big increase in electronic chatter and have inferred it could be prep for an attack. Better to over-predict than miss.
We also live in a world of ISR. Nothing on the ground anywhere is unseen. So perhaps the US saw movements consistent with launch prep.
Having said that, it is possible that Mossad or the US has gotten some very good moles inside the IRG, but there are other explanations that fit the fact set.
Biden was probably assured by Netanyahu when the IDF went into Gaza that they would have the whole strip cleared out by Christmas/Hanukkah and the Palestinians would be forced to go to places like Egypt and other Middle east countries. That was the suggested plan at one stage. Biden thought that all he would have to do was to provide Israel with political cover for a coupla months while sending them every single bomb that he could and with the suck-up media, Gaza would be a forgotten topic well, well before the Presidential election campaigns even begun. Well it didn’t work out that way and and the Democrats can probably kiss the Arab-American vote goodbye. Good thing that they don’t need their votes. His whole policy was based on a promise of a quick victory and now all his actions have been doing since have been making it worse. Gaza, the Ukraine, Covid, Bidenomics – everything he touches turns to****.
The Israeli plan has always been regime change in Iran and Biden along with several administration figures seem to have signed on to this goal. To them, this is a once in a lifetime chance to remake the Middle East. Failure to follow through would mean Iran will undoubtedly build a bigger deterrent meaning nuclear weapons. I wish I had the power to stop these insane politicians.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
@vali_Nasr
is getting the point: whether we like it or not, whether it fits our political preferences or not, Iran’s close ally, China, is rapidly and robustly becoming the only superpower.
So Iran can afford to wait, as per Sun Tzu’s strategy.
Maybe Iran can afford to wait, but those in danger for their lives and those of their loved ones can’t. Maybe Palestinians can’t wait for Israel genocide machine to destroy the remaining 15% of Gaza infrastructure. Maybe the Lebanese need to adopt a Machiavellian strategy rather than Sun Tzu, as the US/Israel employ viz..
We now learn that Nasrallah had agreed to the ceasefire shortly before he was assassinated and Israel or the US was affirmatively duplicitous, as if that comes as a surprise
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/10/bidens-israel-policy-has-led-us-to-the-brink-of-war-on-iran.html
Thank you. This British government, which has been in the vanguard of irrational escalation in Ukraine, has also helped underwrite escalation in the Levant this week: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2krlgekpxo. It is almost as though the UK wants to live up (or down) to the ‘Little Satan’ jibe.
Moreover, whilst sections of the US economy benefit significantly from oil/gas price spikes, given the present status of the US as a carbon exporter, the UK (which has been a net importer since 2004) does not. Having lately expressed satisfaction over falling inflation, and having argued for improved living standards, it is almost as though the Starmer government is intent on sabotaging what passes for its own economic policy, by pushing Arab countries in the direction of another price shock.
In 1973 the UK deliberately stood on the sidelines, and so was spared the OAPEC embargo (which was directed at the US and the Netherlands). Had the embargo been applied to the UK the inflationary shock of 1973-75 would arguably have been an order of magnitude worse. However, in 1973 ‘Arabists’ held the upper hand within the Foreign Office, whereas today they are almost stepping over each other to ingratiate themselves with US neocons.
I am starting to think that, whilst Starmer may be ruthless, he also has no notion of cause and effect (and is not perhaps the sharpest knife in the drawer).
Thank you and well said.
With regard to British diplomats ingratiating themselves with US neocons, in addition to that, there are Zionist shadows for British government departments and politicians. Jewish / Zionist officials are encouraged to form departmental community support groups and identify impediments to Israeli interests.
Biden has Amos Hochstein to keep an eye on him. Starmer has Assaf Kaplan.
Thanks Colonel, I had to look up Amos Hochstein. His name doesn’t come across the news feed very often. Rep Thomas Massie has stated every (Republican) member of congress has an “AIPAC babysitter”.
Look to the frightening portrayal of Tony Blair in “Page Eight”. Ralph Fiennes, in only a few moments, shows why Jeremy Corbyn could not be tolerated as Labour leader and why Labour had to be directed by the fiercest possible neoconservative:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Page_Eight
2011
Page Eight
By David Hare
Starmer may not be here much longer. The gossip is getting more public today. Apparently it is “the shape of his family”. The press have proof (birth certificate) that Starmer has children other than he pretends.
https://nitter.poast.org/danwootton/status/1841545681590173744#m
This would be a matter of a raised eyebrow only in France (Mitterrand famously kept a common law daughter a secret) but Labour monstered Boris Johnson for his affairs as Mayor as PM with Jennifer Arcuri and Carrie, to paint him as unreliable in matters of state as well as heart.
Well, he who lives by the (cough) sword….
So yes, no idea of cause and effect! Or, more likely, an overweening sense of impunity, in matters of state and the heart.
Starmer has also announced he has repaid some freebies but only 5%. This is a fatal error: he has established the principle and we are only arguing about the amount (as was said in equally pointed circumstances!). The press will not stop until he repays them all and now there are tax accountants pointing out how ordinary people would have to pay tax on gifts trade upon their employment or office, so why does HNRC treat MP’s and ministers differently?
So either he pays £50k of taxes or gives back £100k of compromising gifts – and so do the rest of Parliament. What a delicious dilemma!
Taxes and rules are for the little people….
“We now learn that Nasrallah had agreed to the ceasefire shortly before he was assassinated and Israel or the US was affirmatively duplicitous”
Seems like Nasrallah had never taken the following gems of wisdom to heart before shedding his mortal coil:
1. A fool and his life are soon parted.
2. Once bitten, twice shy.
IMHO, Israel did Hezbollah a real favor by moving an old chess piece like that out of the equation, because after everything the US and Israel had done, how can one fundamentally still “trust” Netanyahu and Biden al-Gaib? Perhaps the later had promised Nasrallah and the Hezbollah leadership an offer they couldn’t refuse, like some real hot American blondes to sweeten the pot? If I were Nasrallah, I certainly would not change my security routine just on the say so of some foreign devils, but it seems like he did?
Anyway, if there’s any silver lining to this, then I would say anyone in the resistance who still believes in the empty promises of the American government deserves to be eliminated.
Yeah if those reports are true it is dumbfounding to me that Nasrallah had agreed to a temporary ceasefire.
Perhaps he saw it as strategic, since from my vantage point their focus has been slowly overextending Israel and kind-of-but-not-really attriting them slowly.
Maybe I’m just a proper lunatic but the pagers were pretty clearly a sign to suit up. Unless Hezbollah were just about to discover the pagers, why blow such an opportunity if you weren’t willing to follow through?
While it may be convenient to blame Biden and his gang for the mess we are in reality lies in a different direction. Presidents are limited by power-relations within the Washington and other centers of power–he or she must take into account power-groups that have “veto power” over policy like the Israel lobby, MICIMATT, Big Medicine, Wall Street/City of London are the traditional forces and each of those “lobbies” have their own internal dynamics that focus on particular issues that must be ironed out. Each of these lobbies have some connections with each other. The Executive part of government has many internal problems–the POTUS cannot just give orders and expect them to be followed–usually they are followed but sometimes not. Within the WH there will be rivals, secret plots (Washington is filled with plotters as any imperial capitol is) and so on. What I’m trying to say is that there is no one really guiding the Ship of State which is why some commentators who understand the situation are saying we are drifting into war in the same way we (the West) drifted into WWI.
Israel demands to be allowed to expel or kill Palestinians in territory Israel claims for itself in the WB/Gaza and maybe other areas it regards as Greater Israel. If you follow the vision of Zionists this reality HAS to happen. Netanyahu and his cabinet all want this result and they believe a hot war with Iran and the resistance axis is the sine qua non of this religious crusade. The Israelis (most of them) honestly believe, it appears, that their “God” (which is not, in my view, related to the Christian God or the Muslim Allah) will bring them victory despite the odds. How can anyone convince these people that their vision of reality is destructive and wrong? How do we convince the neoconservatives like Blinken who are, clearly, Israel-first traitors to the United States, that allowing Israel to destroy Iran and other countries with US help is a bad idea when their heart is with Zionism. Just so you know, I’ve met and talked to Zionists within the National Security State and I can assure you that those few I’ve talked to believe, at minimum, that the goals of the US should be the same as the goals of Israel. Their arguments are that Israel represents “civilization” and the Arabs and Iranians represent “barbarism” as Netanyahu and many other Zionist spokesmen/women have said for decades.
There is no “solution” of this problem and no avoiding war unless the US stops supporting Israel with its bombs, planes, missiles, ships, soldiers, and so on. There are factions that don’t want some kind of WWIII within the US government and within the community of oligarchs whose life consists, largely, of making money. We’ll see if they can move Biden and his gang to seek peace rather than the current war policy in West Asia. No matter who wins out in this struggle, we can be assured that the welfare of the people who live within the borders of the USA will not be a consideration.
Many people wish for a cease fire in the current conflict, getting Israel to stop bombing Lebanon and Gaza, as if that would end the war. So what would a cease fire look like? I imagine that as a result of ¨negotiations¨ Israel would be required to cease the current bombing campaign in Lebanon, but the slaughter in Gaza would continue. Future random bombings of Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq would continue, as they have for the last twenty years when Israel thought it ¨necessary¨. Gaza would remain a heap of rubble, uninhabitable. The West Bank would remain a labyrinth of walls, military checkpoints, and ¨Jews only¨ roads and areas. Roaming gangs of thugs would continue to terrorize and kill the Palestinian residents at will, protected by the Israeli army while they destroy crops, ancient orchards and steal the residents´ homes? A cease fire is not enough.
It is important to realize that the war Israel is waging on its neighbors has been declared as existential for them. They will never give up. Never. As in not ever as long as the State of Israel remains in its present form.. Israel must lose. Too many Palestinians have died – have been massacred – to just say: ¨OK, that´s enough. We can go on like we were.¨ The clock cannot be turned back. Israel must not only lose, but be humiliated in order to honor the price paid by the tens of thousands of mostly innocent women and children the Zionist entity has massacred.
I don´t know how that can be achieved without a wider war. Hezbollah is a strong military force, but its strength is defensive. I doubt they have much enthusiasm for invading Israel although they would no doubt like to recover the bits of Lebanon current occupied by Israel. The rulers of Israel´s other neighbors, Egypt, Jordan Iraq and the Gulf statelets, are too afraid of the US to dare defy the Master. It is a tricky question: How does one confront a suicidal mad bomber? The role of Iran is crucial. As they seem to understand, they must degrade and possibly humiliate Israel without threatening its existence. Though Iran is the most capable of Israel´s antagonists, there are many possible points of pressure on Israel. I wish them luck.
Yes, this is one of the reasons we were derisive about a 21 day ceasefire in our earlier post on this topic. It is not going to lower temperatures and allow for a reset. The beneficiaries are the Biden and hoped-for Harris Admin, and the IDF, since it gets a rest.
But what would be in it for Netanyahu and the hard-liners, Ben Gvir and Smotrich? It does not advance their agenda of getting Hezbollah and Lebanon out of southern Lebanon to make those poor settlers feel safe.