Conor here: I don’t understand why this is so hard. If Europe doesn’t want or is unprepared for so many refugees, it should stop with the destruction of societies in the vicinity of the “garden” walls. The media always seems to ignore Europe’s role in creating these crises. The way the EU and/or some of its member countries keeps launching or supporting these bloody messes (Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Palestine, Lebanon) is enough to make one wonder if it’s actually a conscious policy in order to bring in more exploitable refugee labor. But to believe that, you’d have to believe the current crop of European officials and their benefactors have the ability of such foresight.
Nevertheless, according to Eurostat non-EU citizens make up 5.1 percent of the official workforce total and even higher percentage of “essential workers.” As the following piece notes, “back in 2015 more than a million refugees, most of them Syrian, arrived in Germany, and many of them are now contributing to the country’s workforce. Syrians and their families have also helped boost German domestic consumption, and have bolstered an ageing population, demonstrating how migration can be a positive tool when managed effectively.”
The problem is that an increasing number of European citizens do not believe it is being “managed effectively.” It’s more difficult to make that argument when people’s standards of living are declining and social programs are being cut. The political class has largely done a u-turn from championing the benefits of immigration/diversity to making a show of ending Schengen. But politicians like German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock continue to rock out with Israel:
In #Lebanon, people fear for their loved ones every single day. Here too, Hezbollah terrorists are irresponsibly hiding behind civilians and firing rockets at #Israel every day. Israel must defend itself against these attacks. – @ABaerbock in Beirut 1/4 pic.twitter.com/D2mCke7HKn
— GermanForeignOffice (@GermanyDiplo) October 23, 2024
And with leadership like that Europe now has a sinking, deindustrializing economy and more austerity and refugees on the way. Oh, and the fallout from the collapse of Project Ukraine. It could be a long winter.
By Barah Mikaïl, an Associate Professor of International Security at Saint Louis University Madrid Campus and at IE University and director of the Observatory on Contemporary Crises. He is also the founder of Stractegia, a Madrid-based consulting company that provides advice on the Geopolitics of the MENA region and on Spanish politics. Cross posted from The Conversation.
Since it began at the end of September, Israel’s invasion of Lebanon has heaped more misery onto a Middle East already overwhelmed by humanitarian catastrophe. Within Lebanon, as of 23 October 2024, more than 1.2 million people have fled their homes, and tens of thousands are now trying to flee abroad.
From the European Union (EU)‘s point of view, limited legal migration pathways, together with the presence of already increased migratory pressures, may well create a repeat of the 2015 refugee crisis.
As these migration flows expand, Europe needs to balance immediate humanitarian needs with longer-term issues of refugee resettlement and integration. However, the continent’s current political landscape presents very difficult obstacles to making this happen.
Lebanese Refugees Fleeing to Syria
After the Arab Spring reached Syria in 2011, Lebanon became home to around 1.5 million Syrian refugees. Today this movement is reversed, as the Israel-Lebanon conflict is pushing both Syrian refugees and Lebanese residents over the border into Syria.
As of 21 October 2024, an estimated 425,000 people had fled Lebanon, crossing the nearest available border into Syria. Additionally, around 16,700 Lebanese residents have sought refuge in Iraq.
The Israel-Lebanon conflict is still in its early days, and many of these refugees are, for now, going wherever they can. However, they illustrate the volume of forced displacement already underway. In time, many will make their way towards Europe, resulting in greater migratory pressure on the EU, much like the refugee crisis of 2015, when over a million refugees entered Europe mainly – though not exclusively – via Mediterranean routes.
It seems that Europe did not see this coming. Only a few months ago, in May this year, the EU announced a €1 billion aid package for Lebanon in order to confront the migration crisis and tackle it at its root. It is unlikely that this funding will be enough to stabilise the region, or to stem mass migration.
Indeed, Lebanon, already on the verge of political collapse, may soon be unable to coordinate any meaningful migratory controls at all.
In the broader context of an extremely volatile Middle East, this will heap pressure onto Europe. As the region’s instability deepens, European states can expect an additional number of migrants, and their claims for asylum, to reach them via countries like Greece or Italy, both located on the front lines of migration routes.
Could the EU Take in All Middle East Refugees?
In purely material, economic terms, countries such as Germany have shown that it is possible to absorb huge numbers of refugees.
Back in 2015 more than a million refugees, most of them Syrian, arrived in Germany, and many of them are now contributing to the country’s workforce. Syrians and their families have also helped boost German domestic consumption, and have bolstered an ageing population, demonstrating how migration can be a positive tool when managed effectively.
However, today’s political panorama is different. Surging support for anti-immigration parties has created deeper social divisions over refugee acceptance. Public opinion has shifted toward demanding stricter border controls and reducing intake of migrants.
This ongoing trend has only deepened since the 2024 European Parliament elections, when conservative and far-right parties gained considerable political ground.
The EU’s indecisive response to the crisis is reflected in their weak policy efforts, such as a recent pledge to resettle 31,000 refugees in 2024 and 2025. This is a drop in the ocean – over 16 million refugees and displaced people are currently awaiting resettlement in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
Whether the EU could take in all refugees from Lebanon and other Middle Eastern conflicts is therefore a complicated question. While on paper it would be economically feasible – and undoubtedly beneficial in the long term – such a move seems politically out of reach. Instead, the EU’s approach to this ongoing crisis will be determined by its unity (or lack thereof) on a common policy.
Future EU Migration Policy
Germany’s Syrian refugee success story highlights the long-term potential for migration to strengthen the EU’s economy. However, political divisions make such policies politically problematic, as illustrated by Germany itself, which has recently reinstated controls on all of its land borders in an effort to tighten migration controls.
The EU’s newly launched Migration and Asylum Pact suggests measures such as relocation, financial or operational support to member states. This approach aims to meet humanitarian demands, but also allows Member States to safeguard their sovereignty and control.
However, it also calls the coherence of the EU’s own values into question. By, in the Council’s own words, “helping with the deployment of reception centres”, the EU can enable the forced and sometimes unlawful sending of migrants to non-EU countries.
Such measures also overlook what migration can offer a continent facing demographic headwinds – migrants can bridge gaps in labour markets, promote a culture of innovation, and provide a younger tax base to support ageing populations.
However, to produce such results the newly appointed Commission will not only have to overcome political opposition, but also make sure that the policies it adopts realistically enable proper integration.
How the EU Can Better Manage Migration
Several key policy measures can help Europe manage the looming migration crisis.
Expanding legal migration pathways – including resettlement programs, humanitarian visas, and flexible work permits for Lebanese nationals – are key to easing migratory pressures. Additionally, improving conditions for refugees by increasing financial and logistical aid to Lebanon and its neighbours may help to slow migratory flows into Europe.
Enhanced coordination between EU states – as difficult as it seems today – also is necessary to efficiently balance border control with respect for humanitarian principles.
Lastly, while integration programs should draw on successful models such as Germany’s experience with Syrian refugees, the EU also needs to address the root causes of instability through diplomacy and development initiatives. Specifically, this means taking a strong diplomatic stance against Israel, and more generally overcoming the EU’s longstanding weakness and indecision when dealing with its neighbours in the MENA region.
To quote one paper from 2010, the EU has long been “a payer not a player”. However, if this changes, the EU could potentially prevent millions of people from becoming refugees in the first place.
Europe Is Not Prepared for the Looming Lebanese Refugee Crisis
The past 15 years or so seem to demonstrate that Europe is not prepared for anything at all.
We have been for years electing the most incompetent gardeners and there we are. We would need a sea-change in politics ASAP. It is an existential thingy as they like to say. But please, not a 360 degree thing leaving us in the very same place.
I am curious about Spain because it would seem to have an even bigger generational divide than the US. If you got in while the going was good circa 1980-2005, you did much better than anyone who has had to work for wages since then. Is this another case of senior citizen voters glued to their TVs drinking the Kool Aid?
If mass migration of low- or un-skilled workers with uncompatible cultural backgrounds is really as beneficial to European host societies as the article claims, then it remains inexplicable why local rulers/ citizens are increasingly opposed to it.
Anyway, the main arfument is, of course, correct. If you don’t want migration from those places then one shouldn’t pursue a foreign policy that contributes to the ruination of those source states. A desired reduction of mass immigration could be a starting point to dismantle western imperial projects. Sadly, the “all refugees welcome, as many as possible please” kills any motivation to actually do sth. along those lines.
Perception and fact do not always match. If, for any number of reasons, people are being told that immigrants are “BAD”—see D. Trump—, they may not have access to enough accurate facts to realize they are getting bad information.
It can even be accidental. Years ago, I remember reading that Anglophone Canadians were much more worried about crime rates than Francophones. The researchers hypothesized that Anglophones were hearing US news while Francophones were not.
Europes politicians are happy little muppets of American ‘exceptionalism’. Therefore we must be happy little muppets and accept the millions of refugees fleeing Israeli/American violence and Ukrainian craziness, and of course our rapid economic decline.
Even more disappointing is over half the Euros seem very content with this state of affairs. After all they’ve got there precious article 5 and the mighty NATO to defend them,,,ha ha!
This piece I will quote to others as a bundle with the analyses of the Draghi EU reports, since only in connection do they make the point to “educated” folks.
p.s. nc could bring a text about the state of social welfare in Germany/Europe in the context of refugee “crises”.
How much is NOT done for poor in Germany, how much was done and what is the true state for immigrants.
I do know that Ukrainians stood in the queues for the local homeless soup kitchens. And some organizers complained about this publicly because those said Ukrainians are not in need.
However if you have, say 1000 such cases, that is meaningless aagainst 500.000+ refugees altogether.
Statistics from such groups as the “Paritätische Wohlfahrtsverband” (charity organisations) or the “Armutsbericht” (welfare/poverty report – the one not by the German state which is sugar-coating usually) or some texts by Christoph Butterwegge and Co. are certainly helpful (althouh I do not agree with Butterwegge on everything.)
At least we are now being told that officially child poverty in Germany will reach 25%.
I assume it has long been there unofficially.
p.s. I don´t believe for a nanosecond that EU does NOT KNOW what´s coming re: Lebanon. Of course they know.
But it´s very simply easier to ignore it and do what they call in German “Auf Sicht fahren” – “Drive based on as far as one can see with the eye”.
There is NO secret “Area-51” style plan B saving us all.
There is a bunker under the Bundestag. There are private helicopters and mansions outside Europe and there is the police.
That´s plan B.
Plan B for voters is to vote AfD.
Good luck with that.
However AfD and BSW did create enough pressure on Scholz to deviate from his Ukraine position a tiny bit. Unthinkable without AfD/BSW successes.
But for the reality on the ground in Ukraine that won´t matter.
And before pissing off the US Scholz will do the big coalition again.
p.s. One thing to remember: Signore Draghi and Signora Weidel have one thing in common: Both are former Goldman Sachs. Something does stay in the family.
As far as my environment is concerned: They will vote SPD even though they are opposed to Ukraine & Gaza. But their knowledge carries them not far enough. If I tell them to reassass the entire RU narrative they won´t grasp.
Same true for Israel and the pre-67 and pre-48 history. There is a very long way to go for these people.
So unless war threatens their own livelihoods they believe AfD and BSW anti-immigration redderick are more dangerous than the IDF killing 40.000-200.000, playing around with nukes or the prospect of new missiles stationed in Germany. It´s like a mad reflex practiced since 1945.
It is goddam´ sad and not many are on my side. But then: fortunately I can only speak for a certain intellectual class!
There is no evidence that I’m aware of that there is a “looming Lebanese refugee crisis.” It’s not clear that the authors have done any actual research, either.
Around a million Lebanese have fled the South of the country for the relative safety of the North. This is exactly what happened in 2006 and, as soon as the fighting stopped, the vast majority were on the road back the next morning. It will be the same this time. The fact that some Syrian refugees are returning home is a net plus since they have been an enormous strain on the economy.
Few Lebanese are fleeing the country to go abroad permanently. Since the effective collapse of the economy, significant elements of the middle class have decided to go abroad, joining the ten million or so Lebanese expatriates, mostly in high-income countries, whose remittances do a lot to keep the country afloat. Lebanon is a family and clan-structured society, and Lebanese who decide to leave will not be “refugees” in the sense that the authors seem to imagine. A number will return, but others will decide to stay abroad, despairing of the country’s inability to manage itself, the elite looting of the economy, the corruption, the appalling incompetence and greed of the political class, the clan-based system of politics and the never-ending political crisis. For some this will be the last straw but, to repeat, there will be no “refugee crisis.”
Talk to any Lebanese and they’ll give you a long and detailed account of why the system is breaking down and has to change. (Mass demonstrations brought the last government down in 2020.)Then, when elections come, they go out to vote for the same people who have been in power since the Civil War, and got them into this mess in the first place. The West is frightened of what happens if Lebanon goes down, especially if it means a new civil war, and the end of the only just-about functional country in the region. Enormous resources have been devoted to keeping the state and the economy going, and trying to end the political crisis, but the problem is that, with the level of corruption that exists, much of the money disappears into private bank accounts very quickly, and too many powerful people are actually content with the current situation.
Of course, it’s not the US, vassals, or Israel’s fault. There is no refugee crisis in West Asia or N. Africa. Libya, Syria, Iraq. Palestine, Yemen etc. have brought these problems on themselves. They should have done what they were told.
As Henry Kissinger said many years ago: we in the West have gone through the Enlightenment, and “they” have not. We have to teach these savages the merits of Western Civilisation, even if we have to slaughter 100s of thousands of them and bomb them into the Stone Age to do it. They will thank us one day.
Any ancillary benefits of MICIMATT profits, and a steady flow of exploitable cheap labor is just a coincidence. Anyone who claims otherwise is a conspiracy theorist.
I think you are responding to a different comment, or maybe a different discussion, or maybe to an attempt at the silly competitive game of attributing guilt.
There is no guilt in foreign policy, only the pursuit of power and interests. Let’s be honest, we can at least observe and ask: Cui bono?
Yes to the first, not necessarily to the second. But the example that the authors think they are discussing, and which they don’t understand, has nothing to do with refugee flows from conflict. It’s the continuation of a process of elite emigration that has been going on for some years now. Lebanon is a country which is not really in anyone’s interest to destabilise. Iran needs it as part of the Axis of Resistance, Syria likewise and as a conduit for arms and other things, Saudi Arabia to stop an anarchic situation where Iran becomes too powerful, and of course the West because it’s the base for all western diplomacy and its last toehold of regional influence. Israel is perhaps the only country that might want to destroy Lebanon, and I think there are some lunatics in Jerusalem who think so, but it’s doubtful if the regional conflict that that would cause is really in Israel’s long-term interests. Lebanon, bless that poor country, has survived because the hostile countries around it have roughly balanced each other out. That’s really the only way it’s going to survive any further.
Fair enough. Of course, the US is calling the shots here, and for whatever reason, the US oligarchy deems it advantageous for proxy Israel to destroy the place and destabilize. KSA (as well as Egypt, Turkiye…) are toothless, they might squawk but do noting substantive to protect Lebanon or Palestine. Israel does not appear to have long term interests in mind. They seem to believe that eliminating Iran somehow will ensure their security. They can’t do that by themselves, they can’t do much at all without the full backing of the US/UK and vassals.
The fact that the US Congress openly and legally take bribes from entrenched interests, including MICIMATT and AIPAC, leads one to ask: is the US pursuing the “national interest” or just the narrow, short-term interests of factions of the oligarchy? And of course, the “national interest” needs to be defined, as it means different things to different groups
Agree with most of your well-informed comments, to which I might suggest that “Lebanon” is not so much a nation state, in the modern sense, as it is a state of mind. And from this very sincere non-identarian, I would submit that the Lebanese, within and without, are the most adaptable creatures on the planet.
I think the Lebanese middle classes are among the most geographically mobile on earth. They all seen to have multiple relatives in business across Europe, Africa and the US, and are often extremely successful. As you suggest, they will do as they always do – temporarily decamp until its safe/appropriate to return. They really are the modern Phoenicians.
I’m not so sure about poorer Lebanese – especially Shia or the already many displaced Palestinians who are already marginalised in the country. Its anecdotal, but most of the Palestinians I’ve met here in Ireland came via southern Lebanon and are often second or third generation displaced from Israel. Many I think would take the chance if they could to go to Europe. I suspect that many Syrians seeking asylum in Europe and elsewhere will relabel themselves as Palestinians to increase their chances.
Iraq and Syria would be functional if it weren’t for US interference and occupation…
Monarchies and Mameluke dictatoorships are excluded from the discussion, I guess…
It is perfectly true that the root cause of these migrant flows is the fondness of western countries for bombing one moslem country after another back to the Stone Age in the service of Zionist interests. Whatever the shortcomings of these countries may have been, most of their populations were happy to remain in their homelands until they were faced with the destruction of their societies by western bombs and western orchestrated head chopping and throat slitting proxies. Seeking refuge in the belly of the beast that destroyed them was a perfectly logical survival strategy. – However, the rather rosy picture painted of the blessings of uncontrolled mass alien immigration is somewhat at odds with reality, however much the liberal intelligentsia tries to convince us of its unqualified benefits.
Only 60 of the 80 million population of Germany are actual Germans. Only 37% of the population of London is white British. This is demographic replacement on an epic scale, and of course there are those who welcome this as a means of destroying nation states (though only white ones, curiously.) But the end result seems to be anything but the diverse multiculti paradise we are led to expect. Women in Cologne, or anywhere else in Europe for that matter, or the hundreds of thousands of young girls targeted by grooming gangs, might not always welcome their cultural enrichment at the hands of the legion of rapefugees. The author takes it as axiomatic that gimmegrants represent a dynamic boost to the economy rather than just an explosion in the welfare rolls, when the latter would seem to be a more accurate reflection of reality.
All this ignores housing and public services issues, congestion, social tensions, depression of lower skilled wages, and many other problems. Certainly there is the demographic issue of ageing western societies. Whether this is best addressed by importing tens of millions of unassimilable immigrants from alien cultures is open to question. One might rather ask why indigenous people are unable or unwilling to start families against a backdrop of austerity, unaffordable housing, endemic job insecurity, state promoted feminism and lgbt agendas, “diversity”, and the targeting of “useless white men” drifting into the incel lifestyle. But that would be to beg many questions.
What are “actual Germans”?
Can only whites be British?
Seriously. How many drops of negro blood are acceptable to remain “indigenous”?
I think it is informative to ask the question, Qui bono? Who benefits?
Some might argue that downward wage pressure makes economies more efficient (by higher profits) than compensates for increased welfare costs borne by society (the rich are not paying the taxes that support the welfare).
From a certain perspective, having more serfs is a noble European goal towards returning to the golden age when the hoi poloi knew their place (and a nobleman could kill a peasant for an untoward look).
At least in my opinion, it better explains the last few decades than the pablum spewed from Brussels.
I fully believe (and I heard in a talk by Richard Wolff) that Merkel knew very well the GErman balance of power implications of opening the gates to a million refugees.
Realistically, how would those Lebanese get to Europe? Looking at a map they would have to go through Syria and the Turkiye before even getting to Europe itself. But the countries of the EU are closing up their borders so that once an emigrant gets into one EU border country, they can no longer travel through all of the EU itself. Probably the EU will once again bribe Erdogan to stop those emigrants getting to the European mainland. Maybe if Turkiye is not so cooperative, they will threaten him with allowing the country into the EU.
Many from the region already arrange to get on a smuggler-trafficker’s boat or raft — the less sea-worthy the “better,” it seems — and set course toward one of the Greek Aegean islands.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/tag/migration/
The U.S. has a similar issue with immigration. For example, we do everything we can to cripple the Venezuelan economy, then complain, a la Trump, about the ‘invasion’ of people from that country. Who wouldn’t try to come here, if their own country is being left in shambles? Other examples abound, such as Cuba, Guatemala, Nicaragua, etc. But as with Europe, our brilliant politicians can’t seem to connect the dots. Alternatively, maybe the real purpose is the need for cheap labor. Who else, besides 15 year old kids, will work the night shift at a meat packing plant.
Very good point. But we are not supposed to notice that, we are supposed to blame the victims and call their countries shit-holes and make racist jokes. Strangle Puerto Rico with debt, impose Siege Warfare on Cuba, Venezuela etc, meddle in the internal affairs of Haiti, regime changes etc. the rest. We can ask Evo Morales about all that.
Meanwhile the obese, lazy, electronically-lobotomized US workers can not and will not do certain jobs and the wealthy need cheap foreign labor to work on their vineyards, slaughterhouses, agricultural fields, and as servants. It’s a win-win for the oligarchy
“Meanwhile the obese, lazy, electronically-lobotomized US workers can not and will not do certain jobs and the wealthy need cheap foreign labor to work on their vineyards, slaughterhouses, agricultural fields, and as servants.” Having grown up in the countryside and worked in many of these jobs, what you wrote is rubbish. The reason locals won’t do these jobs is that they are often difficult and dangerous but the pay is abysmal. Why slave away in the heat for pennies when pretty much any service job in an airconditioned store will pay significantly more. If they want people to work those jobs then increase the pay.
There is no German Syrian Success Story.
I am afraid the author fell for anecdotal exeptions from the rule as abound in propaganda from interested parties.
Perhaps because he is not aware of the hurdles integration into German society has to overcome. The true story can be read between the lines in the link he provided.
Starting with language. German isn’t English. It’s one of the more difficult languages to learn, and the typical fugitive is well beyond the age recommended for acquiring foreign language skills.
And Germany is one of the most buerocratic countries worldwide. Even indigenous people despair of it. To master everyday life rules to abide by abound. Traffic, administration, contracts, insurances,…everything follows heaps of regulations and laws.
Best educated people (those their own country would need sorely to recover) or very young ones that happen to find a congenital tutor can make it. The rest will flounder. Hurt himself or others, get criminal, go on to other countries or – start a parallel society. That is something bare employment figures won’t tell you. Succesfull integration? My ass.
https://x.com/GermanyDiplo/status/1849106274400547144
GermanForeignOffice @GermanyDiplo
In #Lebanon, people fear for their loved ones every single day. Here too, Hezbollah terrorists are irresponsibly hiding behind civilians and firing rockets at #Israel every day. Israel must defend itself against these attacks. – @ABaerbock in Beirut
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GalYWydXgAArk5j?format=jpg&name=small
11:11 AM · Oct 23, 2024
[ This is impossibly offensive, an imitation of German officials visiting the devastation in Russia in the early 1940s after German forces had moved on east and blaming and warning the Russians. ]
So that the German foreign minister might begin to understand; Israel was bombing Lebanon long before Hezbollah existed, but then there was a tough and conscience driven President Reagan who told Israel to stop the brutality and indeed Israel quickly stopped:
https://www.nytimes.com/1982/08/13/world/reagan-demands-end-to-attacks-in-a-blunt-telephone-call-to-begin.html
August 13, 1982
REAGAN DEMANDS END TO ATTACKS IN A BLUNT TELEPHONE CALL TO BEGIN
By Bernard Weinraub
I think Europe is very soon going to be hit by another massive wave of Ukrainian refugees. As I type, it is October 29. Winter is fast approaching and the Ukrainian electrical generating system has been devastated. This seems to mean that reliable heating and cooking for much or most of the urban population is a thing of the past.
I live in Southern Canada where it is relatively mild; we seldom get a low winter temperature of even -15C or -20C, (5F or -4F), but without reasonably reliable heating a building at even -2C rapidly becomes rapidly uninhabitable. With no power, one would probably need to evacuate a house in 24 – 48 hours.
Besides the effects of cold on a person, water supplies for cooking, drinking and the toilet disappear: the pipes, unless properly drained, freeze and burst. If they are drained, one still has no water.
On the agricultural front, I suspect that cold and lack of water will wipe out a lot of farm animals though some pigs and cattle might survive if turned loose near an open water source. Given a close water source and wood heat, people probably could survive.
Unless Ukraine can get the power grid back up or buy a lot of power from somewhere, I cannot see a good bit of northern Ukraine being able to sustain much of its population.
While Aurelien may be right, it’s worth considering that this Israeli government is much more aggressive and enjoys much more freedom to violate the rights of its neighbours than any of its predecessors. Yes, the authors of the piece are superficial, but that doesn’t mean that the problem which they point to isn’t real. Lebanon is, as far as I know, in a gigantic economic crisis and simultaneously remains as politically divided as ever and its politicians, with the partial exception of Hizbollah, are corrupt and incompetent. This is not a good basis from which to sustain effective responses to what may be the most destructive attack which Lebanon has ever suffered. I think that Aurelien underestimates Israeli willingness to wreck southern Lebanon and do immense damage to northern Lebanon, and if that happens, and governance simply disappears, you will see millions of people on the move northward, and they can’t stay in Syria and Turkye won’t have them, so they will move onward towards Europe.