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Georgia Election Update

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A quick recap before moving to the current situation in Georgia.

There were five main parties competing in the October 26 parliamentary elections. Georgia Dream, a neoliberal party bankrolled by one of the country’s richest individuals and one that isn’t opposed to the West but favors strong ties with Russia and China, came in first with 54 percent.

The four main parties in opposition, which all favor a pro-Western path (and therefore downgrading ties with Moscow and Beijing, if not becoming a tool of the West used against them) got a combined 38 percent.

The Protests and What’s Next?

Paris-born (and probable spook) President Salome Zourabichvili who has assumed the role of leader of the opposition continues to insist that the results were because of fraud and a “Russian special operation.” [1] They are throwing around numerous allegations, including pointing to this graph as one of the key pieces of “evidence”:

Maybe I’m a bit math-statistics-graph deficient, but this seems like a complicated (and unconvincing) flag to rally the troops around. Of course, that could also be the point if there really isn’t hard evidence of the widespread fraud they are alleging.

Zourabichvili called on supporters to rally on October 28. Despite competing claims, turnout appeared to be decent.  The AP said tens of thousands, JAM News claimed 100,000.

Barring some instigating event, will it be sustained and enough to make a significant difference?  Here’s some on-the-ground in reporting Georgia making that argument:

For what it’s worth, TASS reported that Ukraine-trained snipers are arriving in Georgia to stage provocations during mass protests, so there’s that. It is TASS, but it’s worth noting the activities of the Georgian Legion, a group fighting in Ukraine that is made up of former Georgian military and police officers as well as foreign fighters. Both Moscow and Tbsilisi began cracking down the legion earlier this year. From Militarnyi:

The special services of Georgia, following the Russian authorities, put Georgian volunteers who fought on the side of Ukraine on the wanted list.

Mamuka Mamulashvili, a commander of the Georgian National Legion fighting for Ukraine, told The Insider. According to him, about 300 people from the combat unit he led were put on the wanted list in Georgia. Most of them are now in Ukraine.

Judging from the Militarnyi story, these fighters appear to be closely watched if they come back to Georgia. And there’s not much of an appetite in Georgia to become another Ukraine:

Meanwhile, President Zourabichvili, who was second adviser to the French Embassy in Chad during the Paris-backed coup led by Idriss Déby, doesn’t seem to be having as much luck this time:

She is, however, getting a small concession from the Georgia Prosecutor’s Office:

The Prosecutor’s Office said that 47 criminal cases are being investigated for alleged crimes committed before and on election day, including the facts of alleged vote rigging, influencing voters’ will, violation of the secrecy of voting, vote buying, obstruction of journalistic work, violation and threats during pre-election agitation, damage and destruction of property. It also said that the individuals in connection with the alleged crimes are being “intensively” summoned for questioning.

Zourabichvili continues to push for more protests and US and EU backing for them — although she has yet to request former undersecretary of state Victoria Nuland come to hand out cookies. Protest is the only way Georgians can “express that their votes have been stolen, that their future has been stolen,” Zourabichvili told the AP, adding that she hopes the US and EU “back” the demonstrations. How much support they can provide following the foreign agents law passed in the spring. That law requires NGOs and media outlets that receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad to register as such with the government.

Since the 1990s, Western NGOs have played a huge role in Georgia, often filling the space that state capacity would, and it gave the Americans and Europeans sway over the country. The reporting requirement for foreign-funded groups makes it harder for US- and EU-backed organizations to affect votes or inconspicuously cook up color revolution attempts.

“We need to have the firm support of our European partners, of our American partners,” Zourabichvili said. Some opposition politicians are demanding a new election overseen entirely by foreign supervisors and vowing to boycott parliament until that happens, which appears highly unlikely.

Others are demanding this equally unlikely vote “verification” process:

The Russian Response

The Kremlin has rejected the accusations of interference. Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Andrey Klimov said earlier this year that Russia is prepared to help deal with threats to Georgian Dream if Tbilisi makes such a request to Moscow.

The US Response

The key quote: “We do not rule out further consequences if the Georgian government’s direction does not change.”

Considering Washington’s fondness of sanctions, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them enacted soon. Over the summer the Biden administration imposed visa restrictions against dozens of Georgian officials, suspended $95 million in aid to Georgia, and let it be known that it had prepared a package of sanctions just in case. They include some harsh measures:

In other news, Russiagate is the gift that just keeps giving:

The EU Response

On Wednesday EU leaders halted Georgia’s accession process due to the government’s “deviation from EU values.” The process was previously on hold dependent upon the outcome of the elections.

Georgia must recommit to those principles in order for the process to be restarted.

You can read the European Commission’s second enlargement report here for a full list of the principles allegedly violated, but at this point it’s rather obvious what Brussels is after: Georgia must do as the West says in regards to Moscow and Beijing.

Here’s European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen weighing in a setting with proper Halloween-style lighting:

Hungary’s Victor Orbán, who was the first foreign leader to congratulate Georgian Dream, arrived Monday on a two-day visit to Georgia, which caused quite the overreaction in Europe.

It’s the Economy, Stupid. 

Conveniently ignored in all the uproar over fraud and a Russian “special political operation” is that the vote largely turned on economic considerations.

Western leaders might have a hard time admitting this to themselves, but the in the with-us-or-against contests they insist on the other side is increasingly seen as more attractive option. As the IMF notes, economic growth is shifting from the G-7 to the BRICS, which also for the time being respect other countries’ sovereignty. In the specific case of Georgia, Russia, China and other regional states offer more than the West does. From Sopo Japaridze, who’s a good follow on the Twitter for goings-on in Georgia and writes the following in Jacobin:

President Zourabichvili argued that while her campaign sought to speak to voters’ desires, Georgian Dream relied on their “fears,” by this suggesting to Western media that her approach would surely deliver victory. Yet many Georgians are indeed more motivated by anxiety: concerned not to lose what they have, rather than trust in promises of European prosperity that haven’t delivered for them yet.

But in this context, Georgia has effectively leveraged its geographical position. Not fully complying with sanctions against Russia has evidently helped boost its economy. By maintaining a neutral stance, Georgia has emerged as a vital trade hub for countries looking to engage with Russia, resulting in an increase in business activity, particularly in logistics and trade. Projected GDP growth is 7.1 percent. As a result, Georgia’s inflation rate has decreased markedly to 0.6 percent since 2022, improving purchasing power.

Georgian Dream is a neoliberal and billionaire-backed party, yet recently has offered some modest steps forward compared to the previous ten years of rule — and significantly more progressive on social issues than the previous government. They also established a minimum wage for health care workers and doubled maternity pay in 2023. The last general minimum wage had been passed in 1999. Although these changes may not be substantial, they highlight a shift in government priorities.

I haven’t seen anyone explain why Georgians would want to throw away those meager gains to help Western plutocrats in the fight against Russia.

Notes

[1] Zourabichvili enjoyed a thirty-year career in French diplomatic and defense positions, including as second adviser to the French Embassy in Chad during the Paris-backed coup led by Idriss Déby. She was also director of International and Strategic Affairs at the General Secretariat of National Defense and worked with the Bureau of Strategic Affairs of NATO. From 2003 to 2004 she was French ambassador to Georgia and then moved seamlessly into the spot of Georgian Minister of Foreign Affairs after being appointed by former President Mikhail Saakashvili, the guy who led Georgia into a disastrous 2008 war against Russia. Zourabichvili has been involved in Georgian politics ever since.

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25 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    The US and the EU may be demanding investigations if not a re-run until the Georgians vote the correct way but I have the impression that support in Georgia is fizzling away for a showdown. I could be wrong but I suspect that a major reason why those young people support the EU membership so much is so that they can leave Georgia and live and work in another EU country where they can make some money.The Georgians are not stupid and know that the US/EU wants to set fire to Georgia so that it will be a problem for Russia and they remember what happened the last time that they believed those promises and went to war against Russia. The US/EU was nowhere to be seen. In a moment of levity, I think that the real reason why Georgia’s Maidan failed was because Victoria Nuland aka The Cookie Monster did not turn up with her bag of cookies. And judging by her portly appearance she likely ate them all before she could go to Georgia to give them away.

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      1. Late Introvert

        I call it cookie mouth, that lingering taste of sugar and cookie crumbles, along with blood and bones to pick out. Yum.

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    2. Cato the Uncensored

      I find it rich that the US can unironically find fraud the elections of foreign lands and then foment colour elections to give them a further “proper” steer.

      If only Russia or China had that kind of zeal in keeping US elections so “honest.”

      Maybe Madame Lee can come to DC to hand out fortune cookies.

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  2. Balan Aroxdale

    Considering Washington’s fondness of sanctions, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them enacted soon. Over the summer the Biden administration imposed visa restrictions against dozens of Georgian officials, suspended $95 million in aid to Georgia, and let it be known that it had prepared a package of sanctions just in case. They include some harsh measures:

    Western leaders might have a hard time admitting this to themselves, but the in the with-us-or-against contests they insist on the other side is increasingly seen as more attractive option.

    Surely by now a great groaning must be erupting in Washington at the onset of yet another failed round of sanctions. All this will do, obviously do, is drive Georgia straight back into the arms of Russia and BRICS. This is the very last outcome Washington should be aiming for. Leaving the door open to further trade and EU integration is the “catch more flies with honey than vinegar option”, even for the most pugnacious neocon.

    Are these people all absolutely stupid?

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    1. Ignacio

      If they finally go with sanctions my answer is: Yes they are, and indeed “absolutely” because they apparently don’t know or cannot consider any other political option. This becoming an automatic response is telling: we don’t want partners, we seek for obeying vassals. Too predictable have they become.

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    2. jrkrideau

      Are these people all absolutely stupid?

      Yes. Slap some serious sanctions on Georgian Dream and/or specific politicians and any bystanders will be trampled in the rush as the Georgian Gov’t heads for Moscow and Beijing to discuss closer trade ties and maybe BRICS membership. This is not stupidity so much as idiocy.

      If we look at Russia as an example , perhaps Georgia should welcome sanctions. On the agricultural side, sanctions against Russia since 2014 have massively boosted grain, beef, pork, milk, and fruit production, import substitution in things like cheese (and apples?) and in some cases greatly increased exports. See John Helmer’s recent essay on pork production, for example. I wonder what a few sanctions might do in boosting wine and fruit production in Georgia?

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  3. ciroc

    What has Ukraine gained by eliminating Russian influence? Economic collapse and civil war. And Ukrainians are still waiting to join the EU.

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    1. Who Cares

      Joining the EU was never the problem. Joining NATO was. Russia put that on paper with the initial negotiations in 2022.

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  4. Zagonostra

    Instead of meddling in Georgia on the other side of the planet, the U.S. should be helping people in North Carolina who still can’t get $750 and have all kinds of problems with contaminated water and soil.

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  5. mgr

    “Ursula van der Leyen wants to remove the elected government of Georgia.” Van der Leyen supposedly represents a bastion of liberal democracy. Is this what liberal democracy now represents? If so, it means the inalienable right to meddle in any sovereign nation at any time for any reason. Just where does that come from? Is that some sort of God-given right? Again and again, I am aghast at this presumption, first from the US and now from its lackey states in the EU. It’s as if they are headed back to the 18th century, before two world destroying wars that gave the impetus to humanity to wake the fuck up and stop running around like chimpanzees with baseball bats (apologies to the chimpanzees, they are likely better than that).

    “Georgia is a conservative, Christian and pro-Europe state. Instead of useless lecturing, they need our support on their European path.” Viktor Orban, who seems to have some understanding of his role to represent and promote the welfare of the general public of Hungary, consistently comes across in these clashes with the EU Commission as the adult in the room.

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  6. ChrisRUEcon

    > I haven’t seen anyone explain why Georgians would want to throw away those meager gains to help Western plutocrats in the fight against Russia.

    Right?!!!

    LOL

    Dear ${DEITY}, grant me long life so I can see this entire violent, wretched Western fascist-warmongering pile-of-poo system go up in flames!

    It’s only ever interference when the US/UK/EU don’t get their desired result. Maybe they should not have made such an horrific sacrificial lamb of Ukraine, eh?! The people of Georgia aren’t stupid – well at least half of them – they have before their very eyes a crystal clear picture of what the EU has planned for them. China should send a BRICS delegation … LOL

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    1. Shahid Hassan

      Well the very same have set ablaze the third world for some centuries now with BBQ, drinks and dance parties for themselves paid for by the global impoverished. Ukraine, Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Syria. Yemen, Somalia and many more are filling the kitty today with hopes for the likes of Georgia, Iran, and others joining in soon. Avarice being limitless, has also condemned many in their own demographics to take up the same role i.e. servicing the insatiability of their filthy rich, overweight and armed to the teeth masters. The chicken seem to have come home to roost but the elitists only care about their gala party this evening.

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  7. Es s Ce Tera

    It’s not a bad idea, actually, for each voter to be able to validate how their own vote was recorded. I’d like to see that implemented in the US, and every state which claims to be a democracy. A great way to ensure against shenanigans and state or man-in-the-middle interference, or electronic/digital “error”.

    Why did we ever want confidentiality/anonymity in voting anyway? What use is that now?

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    1. Polar Socialist

      Anonymity is supposed to allow people to cast their ballot without external pressure or fear of repercussions. All the MSM propagandists would soon be out of work, if it would suffice the send a couple of goons on each polling station to make sure people vote “correctly”.

      Wouldn’t really change anything else, I’m afraid.

      So how about constructing a voting system that people can trust. And throwing into jail office holders who on purpose undermine the trust on the system just because they don’t like the result.

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    2. Vandemonian

      A pertinent quote:

      “I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this—who will count the votes, and how.”
      – Joseph Stalin, in 1923.(apocryphal)

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        1. Polar Socialist

          Considering that in the quote Stalin was talking about the vote within the party for the next general secretary, we may have indeed seen how a party can use modern technology to rig internal primaries…

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    3. fjallstrom

      19th century US politics featured voting were voters were walked to the polls, voted in public and then were promptly rewarded with cash and / or alcohol. Secret ballots were an attempt to get rid of that.

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  8. NN Cassandra

    It’s interesting to see Zurabishvili claim that “not even US & EU were able to demonstrate Russia interference in their elections”. I had the impression these were slam dunk cases proved beyond any doubt, whoever says anything else is Putin’s agent trying to sow doubt, and should be immediately deleted from the internet.

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  9. Bill Malcolm

    Not mentioned here is that Georgia does not have formal diplomatic relations with Russia.

    Nor has the Georgia Dream Party who won re-election shown any inclination towards doing so in the past, nor in the future. One can hardly say they are pro-Russia.

    Yet Russians do not require a visa to visit Georgia for up to one year, while Ukrainians get three years:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_policy_of_Georgia

    It seems quite all over the place.

    Moving on, in fact, PM Kobakhidze has said Georgia is interested in exactly what Orban was talking about in future relations with Europe. It becomes difficult therefore for external observers to figure out the real difference in attitude towards Europe between the “French” CIA spook Georgian president Zourabichvili, together with opposition parties happy with NGOs and joining the EU on Von der Leyen’s autocratic terms, versus the ruling Georgia Dream Party’s outlook of looking towards Europe rather than BRICS, but in their own independent way.

    Furthermore, no mention was made here of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, former provinces of Georgia, separated after the 2008 spat with Russia to sort of become independent entities, and how that intertwines with the overall Georgia situation. Georgia regards those two “countries” as part of their own country. Russia is definitely pressing Abkhazia to “open up”, and the issue there is one about Russian business building summer condo strips on the Abkhazian Black Sea coast. The vast majority of Abkhazia’s budget is provided by Russia, but the Abkhazians don’t want any of that Russian business building condos, thankyou. They seem to desire to exist on some higher existential plane, where they get free room and board from Russia and offer zilch in return. It is all most peculiar.

    There is, in my opinion, no easy way to explain the Georgia situation that makes sense in the conventional US versus the Rest world order kind of way. Perhaps some enterprising journalist with an interest could interview both Orban and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze to clarify exactly what they’re getting at. Because, on the face of it, it’s a fine line between the two opposing Georgian sides who both ostensibly like Europe, but want to approach it differently. Mr Kobakhidze is certainly not pro-Russia, nor pro-Ukraine and most certainly not pro-US/EU/NATO. He hews to an independent line that favours a European flavor of the past which Orban also wants, without a busybody European Commission or CIA/USAID overbearing attitude telling Georgia what to do and how to behave. Maybe one day, Georgia may even re-establish formal diplomatic relations with Russia as well. But as a tiddler on the worldstage at the moment, they are being pressed to pick a side, and refuse to do so. Best of luck to them.

    I must congratulate Mr Gallagher on not managing to mention Mr Kobakhidze’s name once in his entire analysis! It is not an easy name to remember for we Westerners.

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  10. ChrisPacific

    I found the source for that graph: https://x.com/LevanKvirkvelia/status/1850761181599858792

    This analysis is incompetent in the most charitable interpretation. I suspect it’s beyond that and intended to be deliberately misleading.

    The graph included in this post appears to be a frequency graph of district count by vote percentage for the party that became the government? It’s hard to tell since none of the terms are defined and the data series aren’t labeled – and why use a line chart and not a histogram if it’s a frequency graph anyway?

    The author claims it should be normally distributed and the ‘fat tail’ is evidence of vote tampering. He offers an example of vote counts from Poland which show a perfect normal distribution, but – watch closely here – the X axis is different between the two graphs! The Georgia graph is frequency by ‘government vote percentage’ while the Poland graph is frequency by turnout. Not the same thing at all! He’s not even comparing apples to apples here, which is a pretty clear sign of bad faith (one of many).

    His assertion that the graph should be normally distributed also requires justification. Why? If it’s a Central Limit Theorem argument, we’d need to assume the district votes were samples from an otherwise identical underlying distribution, which certainly isn’t the case here. I don’t see any reason to believe that this graph would show a normal distribution.

    His second chart is a hopeless mess – it’s not even clear what he’s trying to show here. I think it’s percentage of overall vote versus turnout, but why cram the left end down into such a small space? I think he’s multiplying by turnout for some unknown reason, but who knows? He then compares to a reference graph from another country, but doesn’t even say which country! (It’s just labelled ‘Abroad’). Presumably that’s so that nobody can check his numbers – another sign of bad faith.

    This would earn an F and some scathing comments in any statistics class I know. It appears to sound convincing enough for the readers though, judging from the replies (bias confirmation at work).

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  11. Tiresias

    After the 2008 war and seeing what is happening in Ukraine, it would be insane to vote for the opposition if one actually lives in Georgia.

    It would be one thing if Russia actually wants to annex Georgia or making unreasonable demands, but Russia seems to be okay with the current status quo, ever since 2008, as far as I know.

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