We are once again in a situation where the information about the conflict between the Resistance and Israel is polluted by propaganda, important omissions as well some observers getting ahead of themselves. Even with Iran missile strikes into Israel having occurred yesterday, the reporting is still sketchy, admittedly in no small measure due to Israel’s attempt to impose a blackout.
However, some things do appear to be known:
Israel air defenses again failed. This is a bigger re-run of what happened in April, when Iran agreed to what Israel and its allies thought would be Potemkin retaliation for Israel striking the Iran embassy compound in Damascus. Even with Israel having ideal circumstances, targets agreed in advance, having support from the US, UK and France, Iran sending slow-moving drones with a six hour flight time first and even broadcasting the launch on state TV, Iran hit every target with great accuracy. And the cost of the strikes was $90 million-ish for Iran, while the defense cost for Israel was IIRC $1.35 billion, and another $1 billion for Israel’s allies.1
Iran fired 200 to 400 missiles. The Navy said it downed only about a dozen missiles.2 We had this tweet in Links but it’s worth highlighting:
🇮🇱🇮🇷 15 minutes Iranian missiles hitting Israel … supercut pic.twitter.com/OABH2cWfb4
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) October 1, 2024
The level of damage is not clear and in any event, Iran may have been more interested in a show of force. Pathologically, pro-Israel sources are treating the lack of any deaths as proof that Iran was still showing restraint and trying to avoid casualties. Iran reportedly hit three airbases, Nevidim, Telnov, and Hatserim, and also struck close to the Mossad Unit 8200 building. There were also unconfirmed videos on Twitter showing missiles striking Israel offshore gas operations, which provide 80% of Israel’s gas, and an oil tankers.
Iran claimed to have taken out 20 of Israel’s squadron of 35 F-35s, stationed at Nevatim. However, Simplicius claims this is inaccurate and that Iran gave Israel warning. This seems inconsistent with other accounts that the Iranian ballistic missiles showed up so quickly that Israel did not sound air alerts in advance. Nevertheless:
In truth, Iran openly admitted notifying the US—and thereby Israel—of the strikes in advance, which gave Israel forewarning to take all their F-35s to the sky. This is standard procedure for high value assets like that before any strike, regularly carried out by both Ukraine and Russia in the SMO.
This seems inconsistent with occasional triumphalist accounts from the Ukraine and Russia side of having taken out high-value fighter jets and now Russia systematically hunting for and destroying F-16s. Reader sanity checks welcome.
Scott Ritter raised a different issue in his talk on Judge Napolitano: that with Iran showing it could destroyIsrael air bases, pilots would think any time they took off that they might not have a place to land.
However, the Iranian statement after the attack indicated that they intended it as a retaliation, so breaking too much china in Israel would be inconsistent.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC): We are striking military targets with dozens of rockets in the occupied Palestinian territories.
IRGC: In response to the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and martyr Neilvorushan, we have targeted the heart of the… pic.twitter.com/IAfgwPGrbJ
— vanessa beeley/UK Column (@VanessaBeeley) October 1, 2024
In other words, a lot of what looked like near misses or hits on low-value sections of generally high value facilities may have been by design.
One should also not discount the effect on Israel citizens of seeing so many missiles land unimpeded.
The US and Israel are now in quite a mess. Netanyahu and the US, to preserve their senses of manhood, need to respond. But it may finally be dawning on Netanyahu that the US cannot save Israel from Iran in a full-on war, even though the US and its allies could probably mark up Iran a lot. The man on the right is the head of Mossad.
Now Israel could use nukes on Iran, but Iran is widely believed to have a massive dead hand counter-attack capability that would not only flatten Israel but also torch Saudi oilfields, turning the Middle East into an ecological disaster zone.
Politico reported that Israel had persuaded the White House to go along with the obviously lunatic idea of attacking Lebanon to coerce it to enter into negotiations. Since Amos Hochstein was part of this scheme, it isn’t hard to imagine, as usual, that he was operating to advance Israel as opposed to US interests. And Netanyahu has been keen to get the US more deeply committed to defending Israel, so any way to get the US to go along with escalation was ducky for him.
Mind you, even though a bigger mess in Israel puts the Democratic party keeping the Presidency at risk (is Madame Joy Vibes a credible war leader?), the White House went ahead over objections from the Pentagon, State and the intel agencies. This should have been plenty of cause for pause; since when has Anthony Blinken refrained from being Israel’s chief enabler?
The US and Israel over-estimated how much damage they had actually done to Hezbollah, despite killing most of its top cadre. It still has an estimated 150,000 missiles. How much in the way of leadership does it take to assign targets and fire? This was a point made by John Mearsheimer in an interview with the Spectator: Hezbollah was obviously not defeated after Israel killed Nasrallah and other top Hezbollah figures because Hezbollah was still firing on Israel. Operationally, nothing important to Israel had changed.
Norman Finkelstein more recently made a similar point: that the claim by Israel that it needed to get Hezbollah to pull back past the Litani River so the settlers in northern Israel could go home was clearly bogus. Hezbollah was firing on them from much further north in Lebanon. The demand was about securing concessions, importantly territorial, from Hezbollah to show Israel had scored a win.
Recall Netanyahu’s bluster at the UN. A key motivation for the meant-to-be decisive pager and leadership attacks was to re-establish the appearance of military primacy, both for Israel’s chops in the region and to restore a sense of security in the Israel population.
"I have a message for the tyrants of Tehran – if you strike us, we will strike you. There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach. And that's true of the entire Middle East."
Speaking at the UN General Assembly today, Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu… pic.twitter.com/MgTGIEoekZ
— 5Pillars (@5Pillarsuk) September 27, 2024
However, aside from misreading Iran’s strategic patience as weakness, and likely also refusing to recognize its military prowess, the US and Israel likely also underestimated Shia tenacity, particularly when fighting for their families, their land, and their religion. Alastair Crooke recently recounted how the Shia around 900 AD were the dominant force in the Middle East, and were over time often subjugated to other rulers. Under the Caliphate, Shia were told not to attend their own mosques, with the punishment that they’d lose a finger if they did. `Per Crooke, they kept coming, losing all their fingers, then all their toes, then both hands, then their feet. He added that sacrifice remains a deeply-held value and one that is alien to us.
The Anglosphere press is making less mention of the Iran attack than one would normally expect, and also stressing that it failed by not doing much (admitted) damage. Many commentators read that as intended to persuade Israel not to strike back or to engage in at most a carefully orchestrated response.
Given the well-established propensity of Israel to engage in disproportionate retaliation, intensified by Netanyahu’s maniacal desire to get the US embroiled, it seems vanishingly unlikely that Israel will be measured. Israel is now deploying the “we will respond at a time of our choosing” trope. That could be to placate the US, to pretend that Israel won’t do anything untoward until after the election, when its plans are different.
To turn briefly to Lebanon, the idea of a limited invasion was obviously an oxymoron, yet another too-obvious gambit to ensnare the US. Yet oddly, at least so far, Israel, despite all the noise about launching its ground attack, seems not yet to have gotten out of the staring blocks. In a story today from Arab News:
Hezbollah said that no Israeli troops had crossed over into Lebanon. “All the Zionist claims that (Israeli) occupation forces have entered Lebanon are false claims,” a Hezbollah spokesman said in a statement on Tuesday.
They added there had “not yet been any direct ground clash between (Hezbollah) resistance fighters and (Israeli) occupation forces.”
The UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon also said on Tuesday that there was “no ground incursion” going on in the south of the country. UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti told AFP news agency there was “no ground incursion right now.”
However, the Aljazeera lead headline as of a few hours ago, which I wish I had screenshot, indicated that Israel had not/not much gotten past the border. That has changed, but this is the only detail:
Battles between Hezbollah fighters and Israeli troops in southern Lebanon intensify, with the Israeli army saying at least eight soldiers have been killed in combat so far.
Jerusalem Post leads with a similar story: IDF announces 7 IDF soldiers killed by Hezbollah during Lebanon ground operation. It describes that they were killed in three separate incidents on Wednesday. So this ground operation does not look to be getting off to a great start.
Twitter does not have any information on the status of the fight at the border. Updates welcome.
_____
1 Scott Ritter explained on Judge Napolitano that this time, Iran used only ballistic missiles. The Iron Dome is not designed to protect against them; it’s for slower-moving Hamas and Hezbollah rockets. The defenses are systems on US naval ships and some ground launchers, such as the Patriots. However, the latter are not in great supply.
2 The claim in the Jerusalem Post was even more modest: “….the Pentagon said that two US Navy destroyers fired about a dozen interceptors against Iranian missiles aimed at Israel.”
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>Scott Ritter explained on Judge Napolitano that this time, Iran used only ballistic missiles. The Iron Dome is not designed to protect against them; it’s for slower-moving Hamas and Hezbollah rockets. The defenses are systems on US naval ships and some ground launchers, such as the Patriots. However, the latter are not in great supply.
Isreal has “David’s Sling” for ballistic missiles, one of which Hizbullah claimed to had knocked out a few days ago. I’m not sure if the “Arrow” system would have been used against ballistic missiles.
That is a fair point and Ritter may have mentioned that (I hate not having transcripts since it’s easy to skip over important points by not having a record to consult). I focused on what he said was available to Israel at the time of the attack.
I rarely check out your blog anymore and you may already link to Pataramesh, but in case you are unaware of him, you may find his work useful when it comes to both Iranian and Israeli abilities:
https://www.youtube.com/@DeepDiveDefense
twiiit.com/pataramesh
Thanks for your suggestion.
William Schriver (@imetatronink) and, I think, Armchair Warlord both refer to him.
I found his X during the fist Iranian strike, and I think (but I’m not sure) I posted a link here when he started his youtube channel around the time Iran promised this response.
Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 would be used against exoatmospheric ballistic missiles launched from Iran. David’s Sling can’t effectively target these missiles. See:
https://www.hudson.org/defense-strategy/israel-iran-war-enters-new-stage-middle-east-north-africa-defense-intelligence-can-kasapoglu
https://english.mod.gov.il/About/Innovative_Strength/Pages/IMDO_Israel_Missile_Defense_Organization.aspx
Regarding Israeli f-35s, Hurricane Michael damaged about 1/3 of the f-22s stored at Tyndal AFB, because they were unable to fly (down for maintenance). F-35s have a much lower readiness than f-22s, so it seems unlikely to me that the Israelis could fly them all out.
Did you mean F-15’s rather than F-22? The F-22 already has a very low ratio of flight time to maintenance time – something like 1days flight : 7 days maintenance. The F-35 was supposed to do better, but probably doesn’t. F-15,s are more like normal average for planes, although more maintenance required than, say, F-16’s.
.F-22s
The full mission readiness rate of F-35s is 29%. As far as flyable, 50% undergoing maintenance and not flyable in a 2 hr window seems not a bad estimate.
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/03/engine-woes-dominate-f-35-hearing-but-other-issues-remain/
USAF mission capable rates for 2023 (FWIW). This of course does not exactly equate to “can’t fly it out in an emergency”–obviously more planes can do that than are “mission capable”.
F-15(E), F-22, and F-35 are in a similar ballpark.
As to damage, who knows. Videos suggest this was a qualitatively different strike than the last one, massively higher penetration rate with more modern missiles. If the last strike wasn’t a Billy Mitchell moment, this one surely was.
Shargash surely does mean F-22s NOT f-15s as the incident was fairly infamous at the time. A little wind and rain and billions of dollars of America’s most advanced fighter planes turned into scrap,
Gaianne
I believe those 17 F-22s were returned to service.
America can print money out of the kazoo to pay to have them repaired. Can Israel? Can they wait a year or three to have them repaired?
US will financially bankroll Israel just like it does Ukraine, if needed. Even more so
The US can print money but they can’t print missiles. I heard that Lockheed Martin builds only about one and a half missiles a day.
Iran has denied giving prior warning of the attack. I’ve heard other claims that Iran told the US that when they responded they would hit military rather than civilian targets.
There was certainly US intelligence concerning the attacks communicated to Israel at least 3-4 hours before they occurred.
On what basis is that a certainty please?
In addition to a long tradition of the US/UK sharing intelligence with Israel, we have many reports. If I recall, there is a load of primary documentation that was released years ago from Wikileaks and Ed Snowden’s revelations to provide loads of context. Scott Ritter, Ray McGovern and others have spoken about it as well. Here is just a few, you will find even more
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=K5nTyMheTYc&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F&source_ve_path=Mjg2NjY
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/u-s-and-israels-unprecedented-intelligence-sharing-draws-criticism-a85979b4
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-has-indications-iran-preparing-launch-ballistic-missile-attack-israel-2024-10-01/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2024/10/01/israel-iran-missile-warning/75469972007/
Thank you Jonny James for your actual useful information provided here.
You reply to another comment I make further down this post, were you act like a real jerk by making holier than thou personal attacks, so it’s nice to see you can be useful sometimes!
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/10/iran-missile-strikes-into-israel-reconfirm-lack-of-meaningful-defenses-lebanon-invasion-so-far-not-going-much-of-anywhere.html#comment-4110033
Also Jonny James, I’d like to remind you that this site actually thought the debates were important enough to cover them with their own live blog, you’re a course entitled to your own opinions.
Expat2uruguay I may have been brutally sarcastic, but I did not attack you personally. It is frustrating to no end when people engage in wishful thinking and believe political rhetoric. Your reply to my post below did not address any of the issues I raised, ignored my point, and then made claims to the contrary based on debate rhetoric. Very frustrating, but I apologize if I offended you personally. Please note that offending political personalities should not be conflated with personal attack, no matter how much one identifies with that political figure.
That makes sense. I do not like how erratic Simplicius is, and here he just flat out fabricated. No source at all.
I don’t think he fabricated it himself. I saw it mentioned on twitter yesterday, of course being it twitter I can’t find it now, so here is report about the Iranian denial which includes this:
This is not the point I object to the most. It is his assertion that Russia and Ukraine regularly inform each of other about strikes on air bases. Even a Ukraine documentary that appeared on its TV confirmed that Russia took out about 80% of Ukraine military planes at the start of the SMO. That is why a 40KM line of tanks and armored vehicles sat still on a road to Kiev and went completely unmolested.
> Simplicius: “In truth, Iran openly admitted notifying the US—and thereby Israel—of the strikes in advance, which gave Israel forewarning to take all their F-35s to the sky. This is standard procedure for high value assets like that before any strike, regularly carried out by both Ukraine and Russia in the SMO.”
I think you’re mistaken. I read that as “in case of incoming missile strike the high value assets will be moved out (taken to the sky) if it’s possible due to the missile flight time”. Ukraine/Russia notifying each other about incoming strikes would indeed be ridiculous. Now, Iran notifying US would not be as crazy since they’re not in a hot war yet and according to most sane sources, do not want to start one.
Russia has regularly been caught out with planes hit on the ground, much to the consternation of Russians, as has Ukraine. The complaint from milbloggers has ALWAYS been that Russia should house them in sufficiently hardened hangars, and never once that they failed to fly them out fast enough.
A medium range ballistic missile files 1000km in nine minutes.
Please tell me how many pilots can get from whereever they are (their bunks? the mess? the loo?) to a plane, get authorization from the flight tower to take off, and get aloft in nine minutes.
Cursory googling “time to scramble military airplane” returns results like this:
(India)
“The average Scramble time in case of any emergency should take around 4 to 5 minutes. We also have something called as cockpit standby time which has an average of 3 minutes. When a radar picks an aircraft that is lurking close to International border but not a threat yet , the pilots are ordered to sit in the cockpits with radios on and wait for the instructions. If the aircraft becomes a threat, then a scramble is ordered and can be carried out within 3 minutes as pilots were already sitting in cockpit.”
Or this (US):
“How quickly can the US Air Force scramble fighter jets on US soil with absolutely no warning?”
“The USAF and Air Force reserve have fighter wings in various parts of the country that can intercept unknown aircraft. The time to “scramble” fighters (F-15 or F-16) usually takes 5–10 minutes until they are airborne. ”
If you think about it, that’s what any Air Force does all the time while protecting their borders. They troll one another and perfect their scramble time. I recall seeing news about Finland/NATO trolling Russia airspace this year, for example.
Rus/Ukr/anyone else can lose planes simply because of the fuckups which are common in the military. Or those were secondary bases with no pilots available. Or any other reason that we are not privy to. In any case, it doesn’t matter, Israel is a tiny country, they can perfect the scrambling part way easier.
US sites say 5-10 minutes:
This is also in response to a threat, as in using planes that are fueled and at ready. Planes that are being serviced would not be ready to go.
None of these sites mention threat identification time. That is usually 1-2 minutes, so you need to add that to your assumed response time.
Usually these “scramble times” refers to pilots and fighters who are on duty for interception. Pilots are for most part wearing their suits and the dedicated fighters are topped up and engines ready, all check done.
As Max Z says, when the pilot is sitting in the cockpit and the engines are running, it still takes on average 3 minutes to get airborne.
I doubt most air bases nowadays have the ground crews to get all planes airborne all at the same time from a cold start. Even when all personnel is at the airbase when the alarm goes off…
I don’t disagree that it’ll be close with ballistic missiles and often not at all feasible for a lot of reasons starting with comms, distance and pilot availability. But I still don’t believe Simplicius actually believes that Russians and Ukrainians notify each other about impending strikes.
He needs to draft more carefully if that is indeed the case. That is not what his words, properly parsed, say.
Oct 7th I saw pix of Izzy planes towed by vehicles that could not fly near Gaza. That was not a 5 minute scramble procedure. That may have been many hours or days from Oct 7.
generic multi-role fighter, with generic ground crew at a generic air base:
2 hours to pull a plane out, start it up, and go.
30 mins if the plane has been readied before hand
5-10 mins if the plane is on alert with pilot sitting in it.
In at least one case those planes were not serviceable
He has an ability to weave a tapestry from a few loose threads which looks more colourful than the threads would imply
I frankly do not believe Iran warned US because it stated it did not. The Russian PM left Teheran a few hours previous to the attack so we could say it was a „4-eyes consent“ that was delivered
I think Russia and China and Iran have games this and North Korea will play its part. Taking down Israel and U.S. during Lame Duck Period is simply too tempting and Israel trying to hit Russian munitions in Syria is inviting Armageddon – that Endgame that binds Pseudo-Christian Zionist cliques in U.S. with Pagan Maniacs in Tel Aviv
I’ve read other reports that Iran did not warn either the US or Israel beforehand (though they have done so in the past), but they notified several European countries right before the strike. I find it hard to believe that Iran would notify US/Israel under the circumstances–the April strike was back when Iran still believed that the US could negotiate a cease fire, and there is much more water on the bridge. The Iranians do not seem to be playing games, in other words. But I admit I’m getting this from social media accounts I follow.
Actions always speak louder than words. What does a pager explosion that injuries/maims 3000 a kills a dozen mean? What does the bombing raids into Lebanon mean, especially the killing of Hassan Nasrallah along with the mass murder of several hundred citizens of Lebanon? What about the murder on Ismail Haniyeh, three negotiator for Peace from Gaza, in Tehran itself? All these are acts of war, with no regard to the normal protocols of war.
The massive missile attacks by Iran is an appropriate response, but Iran should focus on assets that allow Israel to attack and mass murder (its aircraft and their facilities), and its capacity to defend. Destroy say 30% (preferably more) This shows that Iran is also serious and willing to fight hard with Israel and its allies… then offer peace.
And do not rely on the US to restrain Osrael or work toward peace. US shows outrage, and it says it tries to negotiate a peace, but in fact does nothing to stop Israel attack, not even to condemn the mass murder bombing campaign in Gaza, and assasinations in Lebanon and Tehran (and let’s not forget Syria as well).
Perhaps this must be a war with a very measured pace, but it is a war. And in war, focus on the military assets in a big way.
Despite their posture, I do not believe Iran seeks the overt destruction of Israel (as much as they might rejoice in it), as they understand this means their own destruction. Restraint gives the more sober Israelis space to climb out of the hole they keep digging for everyone… versus nukes flying, and arsenals being emptied [One never wants to use their Trump card (no pun intended), these are not cheap].
Israel’s lack of success in Galilee is frustrating militarily; but has the added effect of turning the quest for lebensraum from expeditionary to essential, internal refugees and all. I fear they will double down on the paths of least resistance…
Which brings to fore, that if Gaza and the West Bank are no more, what would become the Resistance’s raison d’être? Vengeance? While I will not comment on the worthiness of that goal; it is one the international community will find increasingly difficult to invest in… whatever that’s worth.
We seem to be seeing a divergence between the attitudes of the West and the Global South here. The Global South can view this struggle as an anti-colonialist war. The West can see it as a struggle for supremacy, if not outright hegemony.
When the Gaza and West Bank end up “cleansed” of Palestinians, then the Global South will probably demand the extinction of the State of Israel.
As older Neo-cons put it “back in the day,” this is a war of civilizations, just not in the way originally meant.
Being cast out into the ‘Outer Darkness’ by the West may end up being a blessing in disguise for Russia.
could you imagine saying to Nazi Germany in 1945, ‘what’s done is done, let bygones be bygones’? It would have been unfathomable.
Similarly, allowing Israel to exist in its current form is also unfathomable, all the more so should the Palestinians be wiped out.
Unfathomable? Nobody gave a damn about the Jews in 1945. The US deported Jewish refugees to be gased in Auschwitz. See: the bombing of Dresden, Hiroshima, Nagasaki. ‘Famine’ in India, Ireland! Most of Αfrica! Indonesia… etc. to see liberalism’s colors. So the Holocaust, though real, was but one inflicted tragedy amongst many, and is more an emotive prop, used to justify the creation of a Jewish state, and American domination of Europe (Bygones were, in fact, bygones for the useful Nazi elite).
The effectiveness of that strategy is displayed, when we pretend that this transgression has some new character. One could almost believe it is motivated by prejudice against Jews, why we don’t hold ourselves in the same contempt.
So miss me with talk of “allowing” Israel to exist, because that cancer has existed for 70 years, it is aggressive, and will actively seek your destruction while you are trying to ‘fathom’ it. The world had all but abandoned Palestinians, pre-10/7, it’s why Hamas chose to invite the quick death of genocide and notoriety, over the slow death of siege and silence. So who, besides the Arabs and Israelis will then sign up for another 70 years of tension and conflict?
I can see Israel, eg. leading a campaign for detente with Cuba, as soon as the Palestinians are in the dirt. These ghouls have been doing this for centuries; you underestimate their savvy, and overestimate our attention span.
>>>Iran claimed to have taken out 20 of Israel’s squadron of 35 F-35s, stationed at Nevatim.
just for the record, not trying to be a jerk…. trying to be helpful when it comes to “etymology” of viral stuff.
Iran didn’t didn’t claim the F-35 destruction. The source for this claim is from a “RN News” tweet (which I believe is not a mainstream news outlet in Iran or elsewhere) which cited “official” Iranian sources.
Then this claim went nuts-viral in the Twitter-sphere.
Given the documented missile impacts, the IDF surely? had to have gotten a bloody nose (material-wise)….and I’m really curious what the actual truth is.
and to add…if Iran was serious about deterrence and/or fighting Israel for the long haul, the main target of the missiles should have been radar sites and related air defense facilities.
So that if the situation escalates to another next wave of strikes, the slow-poke Shahed drones and Iraqi/Yemeni drones have better efficacy.
in my opinion.
I think that knocking out defenses is a pretty strong hint that further attacks are intended, which would plausibly incentivize a very strong strike by Israel before its strike assets were destroyed or rendered inoperable.
The “intentionally and accurately struck low-value areas of high-value sites” interpretation of this strike is, IMO, a good way of signaling that “we can knock you out; don’t give us a reason to.”
This is, IMO, what “escalate to de-escalate” looks like, when done properly.
Of course, Netanyahu gets a vote on whether to de-escalate, so I’m not going to hold my breath.
We first heard it from Larry Wilkerson on Nima, who when he says that he heard something, it’s from contacts, not Twitter.
And the Azerbaijan state news agency, APA.az, said Iran made the claim: https://en.apa.az/asia/iran-hit-israels-20-f-35-jets-449919
And Military Watch, which is the antithesis of a friend of the Resistance and does not go out on limbs very much:
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/strike-completely-destroys-f35-base
So do not denigrate our posts and assert we have poor sourcing when a mere internet search shows the reverse.
I refuse to believe that we’re living in some sort of Kabuki “Truman Show” world where all these attacks are choreographed, with no chance of miscalculation leading to WWIII.
So without getting into all the back-and-forth with video evidence, and he said/she said, I’ll just say that I remain flabbergasted that markets continue to party on as if they’re frogs enjoying the now almost uncomfortable temperature in the jacuzzi. And observing some strange things in the hot tub, like carrots and onions.
Someone, somewhere is going to miscalculate and then we’re going to find out that geopolitical risk is not hand-waving or something to be ignored.
>Someone, somewhere is going to miscalculate and then we’re going to find out that geopolitical risk is not hand-waving or something to be ignored.
I may be using up the last bit of Saran Wrap in the cabinet for my new hat but if situations get desperate enough it wouldn’t be a miscalculation but flat out intentional.
To that I would not be surprised to turn on the news and hear reports that a nuclear weapon was detonated in that theater. I could picture the Israelis saying “Gee, imagine that. It must have been a secondary explosion when we hit that area with our conventional arms.”
And the US could say ” See, we told you the Iranians were close to having a nuclear bomb.”
And half the World would believed it hook, line, and sinker.
All downhill from there.
I’m a bit nervous about imminent nukes myself. Seems like the next step.
As with the fabled frogs, staying in to boil because their brains were first removed (the undisclosed crux of the story/experiment), so with the market… no brain nor body to be worrying or be worried about…
Yes, with markets there is only the reptilian part of the brain, the one that processes fear, and greed.
You might take a look at Drôle de guerre, German: Sitzkrieg. Someone said, this was military surrealism at its best:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoney_War
By the way, one reason for the Western allies behavior was the possibly record-breaking military buildup¹ of Poland, causing France and England to believe the (hot) war between Germany and Poland would last long and maybe end in a draw.
Anyway, only Kabukiman can save us now. I heard he got promoted to General, so there is hope, at least until they put the seasoning in the jacuzzi.
¹They set almost all the money on the wrong horse, i.e. cavalry. Strange coincidence, that Poland has started to put crazy amounts of money in their military again…
France had treaty obligations to Poland from 1920 and to Czechoslovakia from 1925………France reneged on both and Stalin considered France the main cause of WW2.
Britain created an obligation to Poland in March 1939 after Hitler seized Prague – it had no prior obligation. On 03. Sept 1939 at noon Berlin time Britain declared war on Germany – France waited until 5pm
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/operation-true-promise-2-iran-strikes
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/10/iran-attacked-israel-only-after-the-us-had-rejected-its-moderate-stance.html
Who should I trust, Simplicius or Bernhard?
Iranian President got the legth of the rope needed to then hang himself…
Multiple reports now that the latest satellite photos are obscured over the two airfields. Of course they will say that it is to shield against another attempt.
Iranians doubtlessly have access to the “good” photos (Russians have pretty good ISR assets, too), so it’s only helping obscure the public’s perception of the damage. Unfortunately for them, that will feed into the Streisand effect.
Thanks for the post, sometimes I forget about Norm Finkelstein, He’s always a good source, I met him briefly years ago.
So far, the ground operation appears rather limited compared to 2006. Israel is taking casualties as we speak. I did not expect a massive invasion, and given the latest info the incursion may not be what the Israelis are boasting about.
“…Netanyahu and the US, to preserve their senses of manhood, need to respond…”
Senses of “manhood”, ? WTF? that got a laugh out of me. These people, even macho-man, Mr. Tough Guy, Uncle Bibi, would promptly soil themselves and have a mental breakdown if exposed to even a fraction of the horrors that they have unleashed. Tragically humorous as usual. And: What about the ladies in the current regime?
And of course Madam Joyful Genocide, would be as credible “war leader” as JB or DT, or any man since POTUS is largely a figurehead that represents the Consensus. I would argue that the pres makes very little foreign policy, and that these policies are long-term. The NSC, Atlantic Council, CFR, the “intelligence community” and the boardrooms of MICIMATT, is where most fp is made. So yes, if we have the first female president, it won’t make a dime’s worth of difference. The irony of a “woman of color” heading up racist, genocidal destruction is not lost on many here. Sadly, most insouciant, gullible US folk will vote for one of the two genocidal freaks. So the global majority is rooting for Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis
Well, I think the first big effect from last night’s debate is that JD Vance looks like the first choice for somebody we would want in charge during wartime. So that might influence some undecided voters in the election.
Also, there’s a not insignificant chance that one way or another we could end up with President JD Vance during this upcoming war in west Asia And I disagree that the team of Donald Trump and JD Vance will he easily pushed around by the neocons. I believe that such a proposition
becomes much less of a sure thing undera Trump Vance administration. (Trance administration?)
Debate? Sorry I couldn’t be bothered to watch tacky, low budget TV shows with bad actors. As I said, it won’t make a dime’s worth of difference. Let’s not be so naive and have such a selective memory: The DT appointed Eliot Abrams, John Bolton and Michael “Fat Mike” Pompeo. They are hardcore so-called neocons (whatever that means anymore) You should not take BS and blah blah at face value. Politicians and conmen are professional liars. Wishful thinking will not change the facts. If you vote for DT, you vote genocide, hooray!
John Bolton has come out against Trump in his latest book.
The problem in DTs first administration is that he really didn’t have any loyal politicos he could appoint, so he accepted the NeoCons.
I think there is a very good chance he would reject most of them in his upcoming administration!
Do you know who Jared Kushner is? Y’all making excuses and wishful thinking again, just as bad as the Joyful Genocide crowd. Election Derangement Syndrome is in full effect – “they runnin game” on us again, think about it for a minute.
Like I said, the Consensus will continue and the genocide will continue, no matter what the outcome of the sham.
The only ones who can stop the genocide, and US/UK/Israeli atrocities and abuses are Hezbollah, Hamas, and Ansar Allah (Houthis) and that must be done by violence. Most of us don’t like to see this mass killing, but those are the hard facts.
Considering that DJT has repeatedly professed his complete fealty to Israel and Bibi, I agree that the genocide will continue unabated regardless of which AIPAC puppet regime occupies the White House this coming January. It’s a toss up, but it’s not inconceivable that a Trump administration may even portend worse geopolitical disasters, given his extreme hard on for Iran and over the top ‘China bad’ rhetoric.
It sounds like Israel is sending in raids to test and assess if their ability to fight has been degraded by the loss of their top leadership. If it has, then the main ground offensive can start. Truth be told, a lot of armies would fight much better if their generals were taken out. :)
The British government did the same thing against Napoleon in the early eighteenth century, suffering horrible losses of “the scum of the earth enlisted for drink” in the process.
One opposition leader called it “breaking windows with guineas”.
Stockpile of nukes notwithstanding, Israel is starting to look like being “all hat and no cattle”. Dimitry Orlov, who knows a thing or two about cultural collapse, was on Nima’s podcast this morning (Dialogue Works) – his take is that the Western Hegemon is spent and in a fatal debt spiral besides. Russia and Iran appear content to try to limit their involvement to defense support while the West ‘runs out of gas’ in greater Palestine and Ukraine. Orlov is a very ‘sharp knife’ but I don’t think he has much regard for MMT and the ability of a sovereign nation being able to print an ‘inordinate’ amount of ‘funny money’ (his term). It ain’t funny if there are willing buyers of that sovereign debt. If those buyers go away, then (to paraphrase B. Springsteen) the Mighty Wurlitzer will come crashing to the ground. Interesting times – I pray that the PTB come to an understanding before much more blood is spilled. “War is over, IF you want it.” (John and Yoko)
Good point. Dmitry Orlov was predicting the collapse of the US years ago, it’s just taking longer than he predicted.
The hog is big and fat…
The Five Stages of Collapse by Orlov is a fascinating read and changes perspectives immensely
Until you have lived in a polity that has undergone collapse and dissolution you have no idea
This is more a case of missiles simply upending the game. Having better fighters doesn’t matter if Iran can simply blow up the runways.
To a large extent, this is very much about guys who are fighting the last war. Biden knows he is a foreign policy super genius. Everyone tells him so or they don’t get near him! He happily bounced along as Obama launched drones everywhere.
Israel is an ethnostate with the patron of a super friend of Strom Thurmond. Western foreign policy is being made by people familiar with experiences such as the British at Khartoum and are now making promises about having the troops home by Christmas after they kick the snot out of the Huns!
I think this interview with Jacques Baud from a few days ago is very useful background in trying to understand the events in the Middle East.
His cool analysis is based in part on facts suppressed by the western media.
It’s easy to get carried away by the constant flow of dramatic news these days and lose sight of the fundamentals. Baud helps to refocus attention on the basics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pgs9a2wTZRQ
I’ve always wondered the kind of contacts he has. He has been a military intel officer and the Swiss have always been extremely good at that dimension. He was a liaison to NATO (wasn’t he the very first Swiss intel officer attached to NATO?) He was an intel-security consultant to various UN operations around the world. He wroked with OSCE in Ukraine–I think he was the head of hte intelligence? He has, apparently, good contacts in Russia, Ukraine, various parts of the Middle East: being a Swiss and a UN person seems to have given him a lot broader contacts (and insights) than most ex-officers of the US intel/military services…
I understand that Israel is a heavily censored fake democracy, so take this with a grain of salt. But until I see some evidence of meaningful damage, I’m afraid such a “retaliatory” strike merely serves to underscore Israeli impunity to commit atrocious violence across the region.
“Showing for a second time that we could maybe in the future carry out a damaging strike” is nowhere near a proportionate response to Nasrallah’s killing, pager bombings, deadly strikes on Beirut and Damascus, etc. What did we really do here, maybe crater a runway or two? If the lying Western press is right to downplay the effects of these missiles — and I haven’t seen anything to indicate that they’re wrong this time — then Israel comes out looking strong and its adversaries come out looking too weak to do much else than defending Lebanon from an actual ground invasion while Israel rains death from the sky across the region at its leisure.
I would love to be wrong.
Israel is suffering. Don’t let them fool you. At some level, one must be suffering greatly to embark on what they have… but for the ones who lack self-awareness, there’s: the refugee crisis, the economic crisis, the diplomatic crisis, the military crisis, the political crisis… the price of these is the lives of eg. Palestinians, but their fates were sealed in 1948, and judging by their actions, they understand this. Give me liberty, or give me martyrdom. That said, what do you really think Israel accomplishes in their civilian bombing runs, besides pissing people off and certifying their cowardice?
How will lame-duck Biden react? I’m frequently reminded of his early life — especially this passage from his memoir as quoted by Wikipedia (I know, I know…):
Not a nice person.
A war between Israel and Iran will result in tens of thousands of civilian and military deaths on both sides. I am reminded of the killing by French settlers of Algerians between 1955 and 1962 — possibly as many as a million people. Dead for nothing when de Gaulle came to the conclusion that granting full French citizenship to 9 million impoverished Algerians would result in a mass migration that could turn his home of Colombey-les-Deux-Églises into Colombey-les-Deux-Mosquées.
Biden’s instinct for bullying will result in the deaths of both Persians and Jews in order to maintain the fantasy of a “Jewish State.” In our diverse world such an entity should at most encompass the precincts of a Temple with no more status than the Vatican or Mecca.
re:“I liked to [walk around seedy neighborhoods] at night when I thought there was a better chance of finding a fight … I had not known I was capable of such rage … I felt God had played a horrible trick on me.”
David,
Feels like a made-up experience, akin to stolen valor. In my experience “seedy neighborhoods” have groups protecting their turf, with more than their fair share of firearms. Outsiders looking for trouble in such areas usually get badly damaged, sometimes (often?) terminally. Perhaps “The Big Guy’s” definition of a “seedy neighborhood” is different from my experience. “Not a nice person” for sure, likely a prevaricator as well.
Also true in my experience (parents ran a grocery store in a bad neighborhood and it really fascinated them to see the peculiar ecology among the local “criminals,” who actually made the neighborhood “safe,” in a manner of speaking, against random criminals from the outside–made me really appreciate Mancur Olson and his argument about “staionary bandits” as the genesis of the state.) but that probably doesn’t apply to kids (I don’t know how old Biden was when he was allegedly walking around seedy neighborhoods): drug dealers, hoodlums, petty thieves, homeless people seem to be “regulated” by local, eh, organizations, but they wouldn’t care about a random kid looking for a fisticuff or two…unless he gets too frisky.
Biden was a 30-year old U.S. Senator at the time of the quoted passage.
Certainly the neighborhood notables would know enough to steer clear of him due to the likely police response, leaving dumb drunks and similarly vulnerable knuckleheads for him to pick on. Sadistic bullies with “juice” are often tolerated playing at this game without crossing the made-men who run the neighborhood.
Biden has shown himself to be a mean-spirited and ill-tempered person with a chip on his shoulder throughout his life. I really do believe that he takes pleasure in the ongoing suffering inflicted on “Ukrainians” and Palestinians by his refusal to seek peaceful settlement of legitimate territorial disputes.
January 20, 2025 can’t come soon enough for me…
Stationary Bandits. Hadn’t heard of that before. But reading the wiki on it makes me think of the character Al Swearengen in the TV series Deadwood. Great series by the way.
It’s sad that “our” leaders always seem to unleash murder and destruction “to preserve their senses of manhood” (even the female leaders). That often seems, incrediby, to be the main driver of policy. We elevate people to leadership positions who are no more advanced (mentally, emotionally, and spiritually) than chimpanzees and gorillas in the jungle, hooting and beating their chests to show how tough they are and falling back on violence when that’s insufficient. Without going all Woke, it would be wonderful if humans could base their senses of manhood on something besides primate rage and blustering egotism.
One rather minor reason for their¹ behavior might be extreme sleep deprivation over many years. It resembles a bit long term alcoholism and there are also lots of alcoholics with remarkably little slur – as long as they can parrot from memory or their ghostwriter’s suggestions.
¹Sans Biden, he has got another health problem
It’s the power that’s the problem, not the people.
Hezbollah fired another salvo of rockets at Israel. (18.80 GMT on Al Jazeera). The Israelis say they fell on “open areas” and no damage was done at all. But that’s what they always say. Since the Israeli press are under strict censorship, and the western mass media simply repeat the IDF line, credible information is hard to come by in the fog (miasma) of war.
Considering the population density of Israel, it would be quite a feat for all those missiles to land in open areas. They’re starting to sound like Ukraine who claims to shoot down 150% of all Russian missiles fired at them.
“We elevate people to leadership positions who are no more advanced (mentally, emotionally, and spiritually) than chimpanzees and gorillas in the jungle, hooting and beating their chests to show how tough they are and falling back on violence when that’s insufficient.”
What an insult to our primate friends. Gorillas are peaceful.
We’re more like baboons, I think. You don’t mess with baboons, they’ll f you up.
Chimps for the win (I can’t stand chimps, and absolutely hate baboons, but gorillas… I kind of like them. Maybe because as a kid, I always rooted for King Kong… and Freddie).
The Grisly, Diverse World of Meat-Eating Primates
While primates like chimpanzees enjoy plenty of meat-filled meals that they risk their lives for, some of their relatives rarely (or never) stray from veggies.
https://www.discovermagazine.com/planet-earth/the-grisly-diverse-world-of-meat-eating-primates
Bonobos FTW, when it comes to primates. :)
Bonobo FTW, when it comes to music. :)
Footage released by the Al-Qassem of an ambush on two Israeli Merkavas, a D9 and an APC.
https://x.com/PalestineChron/status/1841536702504173577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1841536702504173577%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=safari-reader%3A%2F%2Fwww.palestinechronicle.com%2Flive-blog-hezbollah-ambushes-israeli-soldiers-rockets-hit-israeli-bases-massacres-in-gaza-iran-threatens-israel-day-361%2F
https://x.com/PalestineChron/status/1841536702504173577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1841536702504173577%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=safari-reader%3A%2F%2Fwww.palestinechronicle.com%2Flive-blog-hezbollah-ambushes-israeli-soldiers-rockets-hit-israeli-bases-massacres-in-gaza-iran-threatens-israel-day-361%2F
Israel is still “escalate to de-escalate” so we need to expect a massive attack against Iran.
I think Bibi’s greatest mistake is thinking getting America into this war will “save” Israel. It won’t this time. It took about a year to pre-position forces for America’s last large wars in the ME. It has not been done, and the American military is not that military anymore. That military got ground down by endless deployment since W’ folly.
Bibi recently had two US carrier groups backing him up but when the attack came, there were only two US ships on station that shot off about a dozen missiles. And Jordan boasts that it shot down one or two missiles. So Israel was basically on its own with their home-brew Iron Colander defense system. On thing that this attack would have done was to drain a lot of the air defense missiles that they had in stock which means for quite a while, they will be vulnerable if Hezbollah starts to use some of their good stuff as well. And of course Israel knows that Iran did not use their top of the line stuff. Israel’s whole spiel is being able to bomb and murder any number of people in places like Gaza, the West Bank, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Sudan, etc. at will which is just State terrorism but the whole thing falls apart when Arab states start to shoot back.
The anti-missile defense layers of Israel are:
Arrow 3 (long range +-2500 km)
Arrow 2 (medium range +-500 km)
David’s Sling AKA Magic Wand (short to medium +-300 km)
Iron Dome (short +-70 km)
David’s Sling and Iron Dome officially also only trigger when a missile/rocket/shell (only Iron Dome)/drone has a trajectory that is over or into a city. Which means that if you try to hit the Mossad HQ these two trigger since it is in Tel Aviv.
This means that the attack by Iran used less Iron Dome munition then you’d expect. Think of it as a single extra salvo fired by Hezbollah.
It would not be surprising if Israel’s retaliation is more assassinations and an attempted coup within Iran, maybe with some joint US-Israeli bombings and missile strikes to mix things up. Israel seems to specialize in covert operations and long-distance murders when dealing with any halfway serious military opponents. This ground thing with Lebanon sounds like a sop thrown to some faction of the leadership coalition that the big shots will write off if it turns out to be a mass casualty event for their side. Meanwhile more aerial bombings and drone attacks will continue until they run out of ammo or get an advantageous ceasefire position.
I agree with that view wrt Hizb’ullah. I expect that Hizb’ullah is now very very good at close in fighting, possibly the best light infantry in the world. However, their political leadership suffered big blow (Nasrallah, in particular) and they won’t be able to react deftly when they need to do something “political.” Besides the fact that Hizb’ullah lacks ability to shoot down Israeli aircraft (can this change any time soon? The only way this could change is if Russia decides to activate their own SAM’s in Syria and, possibly, divert some to areas that can cover at least Beirut. I have trouble seeing this happen–Putin always placed high value on good relationship with Israel and, at least until 2022, that sentiment was reciprocated, enough that Naftali Bennett was willing to play go-between between Moscow and Kiev), they’d need to play their responses deftly in the political sphere.
Iran seems a bit more complicated affair. I don’t believe Israel is capable of doing anything too overt vis-a-vis Iran (i.e. a serious air attack). Their planes will need refueling to operate against major Iranian cities. I have trouble seeing their ability to refuel planes safely over Iraq or Saudi Arabia (I can see Saudis turning a blind eye vis-a-vis the Houthis, althogh not too long. Iran is a more complicated political fish that they wouldn’t want to antagonize so openly.) The only recourse Israel have will be assassinations and other acts of sabotage, and we can be fairly confident that Iran is fairly compromised (the nature of Iran, as a diverse and fairly tolerant state, at least in religious-ethnic terms, facilitates this–Muslim Iranians may not convert out of Islam, as far as I know, but religious minorities are fairly well protected, but modern Israel doubtlessly still has strong networks in Iran that they had built over many decades, dating back to the Shah’s reign.) But how far can they go up the escalatory ladder with assassinations and sabotage? If Israel wants to show how powerful they are, they need to do stuff with their signature that everyone can see….
So the idea here is to invade and occupy Iran and set up a new government? Install a new shah? Or are we going to drop a few bombs and then spend the rest of our lives shining a flashlight into every dark corner we see?
The idea is for Israel to rule the entire region.
The idea is for Israel to scare Iran into surrendering, just like NATO did to Russia. Then Blinken will do diplomacy from the position of power.
I heard sanctions work really well for that!
The erstwhile zionist senator from arkansas, tom cotten, the psychopathic big-brained graduate 👨🎓 of a prestigious ivy-league university, which willingly turns out tom cottens like charmin turns out toilet tissue, opined in 2019 that it would take two strikes to defeat Iran, a first one, then a last one. Then, of course, big-brained tom tried to buy up every battery you could ever need to run your flashlight. If anyone was going to corner the market on light, tom cotten reasoned, it would most likely have to be him. And why not? He would become the King 🤴 of light. Let there be light? Only if that light first passed through him. And then tom, like god, after seeing all that he had done was good, so very, very good, he rested, comfortable in a blanket of human ash, the remains of legions of Iranian men, women, and children.
Larry Johnson was pretty outspoken, even by his own standards, today on Nima’s program. I don’t know who his sources were, but he says that Israel sent in forty some odd troops, eight of which died and the rest were sent to the hospital for wounds endured during the attempted incursion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ov5SMOlqmKI
So, no, they didn’t have a great day. He is also saying that Moscow and Washington were warned of the attack. But Johnson was pretty funny. He compared Israel to the psychotic former girlfriend that pours gas on you while you are asleep and then torches your house. He has come a long way in his estimation of Israel since last October.
Still better than Kursk field trip.
And, while you were together, it’s a the girlfriend that blackmailed or guilt-tripped you into staying with her. Didn’t have really have anything to offer.
The only issue I have is the phrase “the attempted incursion.” This is nytimes speak in support of propaganda. When your army crosses a border into another country it’s an invasion.
Yves: 2nd sentence looks incorrect? “Even with Iran missile strikes into Iran having occurred yesterday” instead of Israel.
Ooops! Fixing!
Martyanov´s video today is about this same subject
recommended
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/10/mathematics-of-sead.html#disqus_thread
Professor Marandi vs. Sky News Twat (4:58)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-2EiPHpam4
I had seen that before but it was really something.
I’ve only started Prof. Mirandi recently. Staying cool while kneecapping idiots and/or hasbarists, even when they have been super obnoxious, has been a speciality of his.
But here he allowed himself to get angry! It was refreshing but I wonder why he went that way, since he has way more control over his stylistic register than most. Was it that he’s decided “Suffer no fools” is fully warranted after the Nasrallah assassination?
Prof Marandi was born in Richmond, VA and lived for years in US before moving to Teheran…….he is erudite and reasoned
Oct 3rd
Chris Hedges Q&A
6pm ET
https://www.youtube.com/@ChrisHedgesChannel
Neoliberal Late Capitalism a hyper acceleration of the death drive. Good luck derailing this. I’m 70+ and have tried resistance all of my life. What a waste of time. See you in the mushroom cloud.
@7:42
This deadly war of extermination is going to be confronted soon…..”
https://www.youtube.com/live/-RedeAoICcw?si=2mDhpc0XyTMSjroq
We Absolutely Need to Escalate in Iran (Brett Stephens in NYT via archive.ph)
[Presented without comment]
“I’m sensing a theme.” (via X)
Lest we forget, the fundamental issue is Israel will do whatever it takes to ensure that the US and Iran remain enemies.
It is in the interests of the US to restore normal relations with Iran. The region would be more stable and US interests more secure, and Iran has made numerous overtures to that very goal.
The problem with this is Israel becomes the second fiddle; the weapons, money, diplomatic support less likely.
The Israel government and the Israel lobby work overtime for Israel regardless of damage to the US. If you do not prioritize Israel, you’re anti-semitic and if you want to normalize relations with Iran, you’re a terrorist.
Netanyahu and the lobby obsessed over the JCPOA until it was destroyed. Dreams of ME hegemony and a greater Israel are based on the US never having normal relations with Iran.
F-35’s have, depending on the source you follow, an absolute maximum loitering time of 3.5 hours. There is no way the Israeli’s would fly them on the word of an intermediary that an attack was coming at x hours. All the Iranians would have to do is delay the attack by a couple of hours and they could catch the aircraft coming back to fuel. In the unlikely event that Iran warned Israel, the most valuable aircraft (which isn’t necessarily the F-35, AWACs and refueling aircraft are far more precious) would be kept well buried in their reinforced hangers. Hitting those hangers is not just a matter of hitting a fixed target. They don’t have ‘F-35 under here’ written on the roofs. They will have multiple dummy hangers built as well as other forms of deception. If the Iranians did hit the right targets, they would not know what they hit in them.
The story that the off-shore rigs were hit is an obvious nonsense and nobody who reported it should be taken seriously. The glow would have been seen over half the Mediterranean. Even if the gas didn’t ignite, there are plenty of unaligned commercial vessels in the area who would have seen and reported incomings (you just have to check Marinetraffic to see how many regularly sail past the rigs). Plus, the Iranians know full well just how vulnerable their own gas networks and power stations are, so they will not try to hit energy infrastructure first, thats a tit for tat battle whey will lose. It makes sense for them to focus only on big ticket military targets for now.
The reality is that only the Israeli’s know what was hit, and only the Iranians know what they were trying to hit. Even good quality satellite imagery can only tell you so much. Nobody knows the interception rates, because even the Israeli’s won’t know for sure if what they hit were real missiles or decoys. All else is guesswork. Occasionally educated guesswork, but that’s still guesswork.
I’m also sceptical about claims about the ‘real’ information quality on interception rates. Neither side will have gone all out in either defence or in attack as they both want to keep their most cutting edge capabilities under wraps. This type of warfare is highly iterative. After every wave of attack, each side learns how to do their side of things better. Israel will be busy updating its air defence software, Iran will be busy trying to work out which of its missiles delivered the most accuracy. Both sides will be attempting to bluff and double bluff the other. Neither side is working from clear and unambiguous information. All sides understand that maintaining strategic and capability ambiguity is crucial if and when a real all out war starts.
A bit of an exaggeration, eh? The fire at Tamarin field should be over 500 meters high to be visible even from Israel. Whereas the platform that does most of the processing is only 24 km from Ashkelon and is on a clear weather sort of visible from the beach.
All we know is that something was burning on that platform right after the strike. Maybe it was normal, maybe it wasn’t.