Kenya relocates 50 elephants to a larger park Associated Press (furzy)
Scientists discover “negative time” in bizarre quantum experiment where photons exit atoms before entering ZMEScience (Dr.Kevin)
When Did the Roman Empire Fall? Antigone
#COVID-19
COVID-19 detection from exhaled breath Nature (ma)
Climate/Environment
World fails first review of COP renewable energy goal Politico
Trees threaten grasslands and wildlife they support as Minnesota pheasant opener nears Star Tribune (Robin K)
China?
China Moves to Tax the Ultra-Rich for Overseas Investment Gains Bloomberg
China deflation pressure mounts as investors seek more stimulus for economy Financial Times
Koreas
Canada-India Row
India and Canada expel top diplomats over murder accusations BBC
What’s behind Canada’s fresh charge against India? India Today (Kevin W)
Violence continues despite curfew in France’s Martinique: ‘Last night was a horror’ LeMonde
South of the Border
Venezuela: María Corina Machado Hastens Collapse of Far-Right Justice First Party Orinoco Tribune. Robin K: “That’s a damn shame!”
European Disunion
Europe Is Almost Out of Time to Defend Its Place in a Brutal World. Bloomberg
Poland to suspend right to asylum as ‘hybrid war’ escalates on Belarus border Politico
From Politico’s morning EU newsletter:
VDL EMBRACES EXTERNAL DEPORTATION CENTERS: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU should consider legislating for “return hubs” in third countries to speed up ejections of undocumented immigrants, in a letter to capitals ahead of an EU leaders’ migration gabfest later this week.
Aligning deportation policies: The EU isn’t effective at removing people who arrive illegally, von der Leyen said in the letter, which was released to the media on Monday evening. Only around one in five of the non-EU citizens ordered to leave have done so. Dealing with this requires “a new legal framework to step up our capacity to act,” von der Leyen said, adding that revisiting the EU’s failed 2018 effort to align deportation policies would be an immediate priority for the incoming migration commissioner.
Going mainstream: The proposal for third-country deportation centers, along the lines of Italy’s contentious new initiative to ship migrants off to Albania, could mark a sharp new turn in the EU’s approach to migrants. Just last week, as Playbook reported, Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson downplayed the prospect of deportation camps, adding that no one has formally proposed this. Now, in writing, von der Leyen is pointing to Italy’s Albania initiative as an opportunity to “draw lessons from this experience in practice.”
Old Blighty
The age of energy rationing is looming for Britain Telegraph
Reeves hints at rise in employer national insurance, as critics claim it breaches manifesto Guardian (Kevin W)
Councils in London at financial ‘breaking point’ BBC
UK farmers forced to cut food production to stay viable, warns NFU Financial Times
Israel v. The Resistance
Israel does what it does; it was always planned this way Alastair Crooke (alerts from many readers). Extensive quotes from a Michael Hudson interview with Nima; links to transcripts at NC.
Here’s An Audit Of The Ongoing Genocide In Gaza Madras Courier
Starmer and Lammy today sanctioned Iran 🇮🇷 for the missile attack on Israel 🇮🇱 in response to their pager attack that killed over 40 Lebanese 🇱🇧 and injured 3,500.
Last night Israel 🇮🇱 burned Palestinians 🇵🇸 alive in their tents.
Not a word from Starmer or Lammy. pic.twitter.com/rmSis5Y8pl
— Howard Beckett (@BeckettUnite) October 14, 2024
Germany asked Israel to sign ‘genocide clause’ – media RT (Kevin W)
US Arms Dealers Witness ‘Record Profits’ From Israel’s Year-Long Genocide in Gaza, War on Lebanon Orinoco Tribune (Robin K)
Simply No Red Lines At All Craig Murray (Anthony L)
Smotrich: "We will continue to fix, legalize (illegal outposts) and make de-facto (Israeli) sovereignty (in the West Bank)"
Following a vote in the Israeli government's Security Cabinet in favor of placing mobile shelters in illegal West Bank outposts (meaning illegal even under… pic.twitter.com/1m4EMDHfVt
— B.M. (@ireallyhateyou) October 14, 2024
Israel is turning northern Gaza into a killing cage Jeremy Scahill
🧵Starting a 3rd running thread on the case of the Israeli soldiers arrested for raping a Palestinian at the Sde Teiman concentration camp.
Ha'aretz newspaper, today:
"The prosecutor described in graphic detail the abuse the soldiers allegedly engaged in, which resulted caused… https://t.co/Xhf82cIKam pic.twitter.com/81NoPdl04e
— B.M. (@ireallyhateyou) August 22, 2024
* * * A whole news report on the Binyamina attack and *not* one mention that it was a military base and the 67 injured are all IDF soldiers.
Making it seem as though Hezbollah attacked civilians is transparently an attempt to continue justifying the US-Israeli war in Lebanon. https://t.co/BVwYvTf7qZ
— Sana Saeed (@SanaSaeed) October 13, 2024
Israel has just won the war crime of the century prize: The IDF used chemical weapons on UN peacekeepers! https://t.co/R5FzMK6Qa6
— Yanis Varoufakis (@yanisvaroufakis) October 13, 2024
* * * Israel races to supply anti-missile shield Financial Times. Lead story. The independent media was all over “US to supply [ineffective because no way enough missiles] THAAD air defense story yesterday. This lead story is a bit broader. The THAAD system will require ~100 US soldiers to operate it. How long will it take to get to Israel? The arrival and installation of the THAAD is a rate-determining step. Israel will not attack Iran until it is installed. Remember the point is not just whatever limited protection it offers, but US troops as a tripwire. If it has a radar, I assume it has to be transported by sea, which = time. Any reader thoughts? Will this take (or can it be made to take) so long that it puts the retaliation past the election? The flip side is that Judge Napolitano reported near the top of a fresh interview with Jeffrey Sachs that Channel 14 in Israel reported that the attack will come before the US elections.
Israel Assures U.S. It Will Not Strike Iran’s Oil and Nuclear Facilities, Officials Say Wall Street Journal
Iran slams new US oil sanctions, calls them ‘illegal and unjustified WION
‘No red lines’ in conflict with Israel, Iran foreign minister says Poiltico
Fake Reports Of Missile Transfers To Russia Are Used To Sanction Iran Moon of Alabama
Syraqistan
Tribal clashes in north-west Pakistan kill at least 11 people Guardian
New Not-So-Cold War
SITREP 10/14/24: Russia Tightens Ring on Key Region on Eve of Zelensky “Victory Plan” Unveiling Simplicius
BILD: Scholz disagrees with Zelenskyy's calls to support Ukraine and seems to have no intention of handing over heavy equipment to the country
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been touring Europe to propose a "victory plan" and seek urgent support in the fight… pic.twitter.com/iVdBINyCDt
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) October 13, 2024
Fat and stupid; Why NATO is good (for us). Marat Khairullin
The Militarisation of Scandinavia & the Great Northern War 2.0 Glenn Diesen (Micael T)
Between Russia and Iran all is well that ends well Indian Punchline. Bhadrakumar is very uneven. Just a week ago, he was claiming that Israel would not attack Iran. I’m not sure I buy a thesis here, that Pezeshkian is still meaningfully driving the bus with respect to Middle East policy (that does not, BTW, mean he can’t be an interlocutor). Pezeshkian was one of the loud voices for holding off on the Iran retaliation based on noises the US was making about possible Iran normalization. Pezeshkian has since had to eat a ton of crow and admit the US lied to him. Some commentators have suggested Pezeshkian is diminished to the degree that he is on the way out. Military decisions are the purview of the Supreme Leader.
Trump
Trump news conference: Insults, wild claims and apocalyptic view of U.S. Los Angeles Times (furzy)
Kamala
What the Polls Really Say About Black Men’s Support for Kamala Harris New Yorker (furzy)
CNN Tells Harris Not to Talk About the Economy Dean Baker. Robin K: “Defending the Biden economy!!!”
2024
Massive Early Voting Turnout Surge Shatters Records Across Wyoming Cowboy State Daily. Big increase in voting level already predicted by an in-state reader.
The 2024 Kansas voter suppression scandal: Government, social media team up to block engagement Kansas Reflector (Robin K)
Helene/Milton Aftermath
Speaker Johnson says FEMA hasn’t spent most of $20 billion in disaster aid Just the News
Federal flood maps underestimated risk in areas hit hardest by Hurricane Helene Washington Post (furzy)
Extent of destruction from Hurricane Milton comes to light WSWS
Our No Longer Free Press
The FBI Knocked On My Door Ken Klipperstein (furzy)
Liberals are Losing their Minds over Elon Musk Jonathan Turley
Flyover Watch
Tenth District Energy Activity Declined Further Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (Robin K)
Rural Missouri groups threaten lawsuit over PFAS in meatpacking sludge Missouri Independent. Robin K: “Missouri’s not the only state with meatpackers.”
Ag Secretary Vilsack deflects on future career plans, regulatory ‘revolving door’ Investigate Midwest. Robin K: “OK, this is last week. This guy needs exposing as often as possible.”
AI
Google strikes a deal with a nuclear startup to power its AI data centers Endgadget (Kevin W)
The Bezzle
Man Who Accidentally Sent $527M in Bitcoins to Dump Sues Local Council to Retrieve Them: Report CoinDesk (Kevin W)
You Can’t Make Friends With The Rockstars Ed Zitron (Micael T)
Video: Elon unveils ‘Robovan’ and ‘Cybercab’ CNN (furzy)
Class Warfare
The Global South’s Poor Should Not Be Subsidizing the IMF Center for Economic and Policy Research (Robin K)
Congress Is Underfunding Tribal Colleges by $250 Million Per Year ProPublica (Robin K)
Antidote du jour (via):
And a bonus:
The peacemaker 🐈 pic.twitter.com/BvfGhQYhIT
— contents that ll heal your depression 🌻 (@Catshealdeprsn) October 14, 2024
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.
OUR FAVORITE THINGS
(melody borrowed from My Favorite Things by Julie Andrews)
Running an empire much bigger than Britain’s
Student protesters so fierce with their sit ins
Laws passed by Congressmen who live like kings
These are the gifts that the donor class brings
Sanctioning Russia and seizing their rubles
Buying off Senators who have no scruples
Threatening Taiwan to bug Zhe Jinping
These are the gifts their donations can bring
Facts on the ground which the UN rehashes
Blowing up Gaza with thunderous flashes
Israel gets bombs and cash with no strings
AIPAC bought Congress now our Congress sings!
Israelites—break their playthings—we say ‘ironclad’
The folks they dismember don’t mean anything—ask Istanbul or Riyadh!
Letting the Gazans go without provisions
Letting Israelis add ceasefire conditions
IDF snipers who target kids’ limbs
We say those snipers are all cherubims
Bombing of schools while they’re chock full of pupils
Phosphorous bombs so the damage quadruples
Murdering journalists—head shots, not limbs
Hiding the death count because it’s too grim
Farms and greenhouses and orchards in ashes
Gaza kids sleep in the sand and get rashes
Blowing up well pumps and natural springs
Thirst adds so much to the pain of starving
Israelites—break their playthings—we say ‘ironclad’
The people they slaughter don’t mean anything—ask Istanbul or Riyadh!
Antifa, the cognitive dissonance of combining the fantasy musical,The Sound of Music with the horrors that Israel is unleashing on the Palestinians (and Lebanese) is ….. brilliant. It perfectly captures the US pre-election zeitgeist.
And, your recent contributions have been miraculous. I don’t say “Bravo!” everyday, but I think it. Thank you.
I was gonna say “brilliant” but Eclair beat me to it. Same with “Bravo”.
One of My Favorite Things would be trials at The Hague, followed by a few people “tied up with strings”
Brilliant!
Much as I love Julie Andrews this song is from “The Sound of Music” with music by Richard Rodgers, lyrics by Oscar Hammerstein II. That said, nice work. Dark topic.
Thank you. This song will be properly attributed when collected in Songbook Seven.
Re AI news. Maybe Lambert will comment on something I sent him but Cambridge University Press sent me an email (UK time morning of 15th October) telling me they have negotiated an agreement with “the AI companies” to allow scraping of books from those authors who agree.
If I say yes, I get a certain royalty percentage. Maybe I’m stupid, but as soon as the statistical designs etc are in the public realm, why would CUP and hence me, get ANY royalties? I get GBP 80 per annum in royalties from my textbook since it is mega specialised and certain institutions like Macquarie Bank in Australia already got the key info years ago….and 80 quid is coincidentally just about enough to cover what the accountant charges me to do my annual tax return (which I can’t do manually).
This stinks. I have 72 hours to respond. It sounds horrid, but luckily for me my two co-authors died during the pandemic so I have (I think) the only say in this. And I’m saying “hell no”. 15 years of research, experience and wisdom is not being churned out via big tech. Eff you.
Did you attach an image of a big spaffing c**k to your reply to them as well? Inquiring minds wish to know. :)
LOL I haven’t replied yet. Although I’d LOVE to do that again, “don’t bite the hand that feeds you”. So I’m not gonna annoy CUP.
When the formal contract comes through I will answer it properly and make it abundantly clear that I grant NO PERMISSION to have anything from my textbook scraped by AI.
The biggest irony is that if AI can’t even get fingers right, the chances of it properly designing and/or analysing a discrete choice experiment are zero. But I don’t want “guilt by association” when AI gets it spectacularly wrong. Analysing discrete choice data is an art, not a science. NOTHING in current statistical practice (apart from that “pseudo Nobel” of McFadden) has recognised this so I’m not putting myself in the firing line. Key people at Macquarie etc know this already and why they NEVER “show their working”. I’m not doing that either til/unless we get a system that values “showing your working”.
A non-native English speaker here, asking on behalf of equally non-native speak friend for linguistic orientation: if the joystick is spaffing: is that because it is happy or angry? It seems as if Terry wasn’t particularly enthusiastic from this proposal from Cambridge University Press.
Maybe it would be more appropriate with a Hallmark-card wishing a rather uncomfortable auto-topological exploration with 3-4 dimensional objects?
Hehe correct on all counts.
Regarding 3-4 dimensional objects, you are more on the nose than you might think. Discrete choice modelling typically works in 8+ dimensional space. That is why it is incredibly hard/impossible for humans to “game the survey” and also why prediction is frequently wrong. Years and years of experience are often required to get a “feel” for whether you have scaled “merely” the Alps or Mount Everest.
got THE email. Replied in a Trumpian ALL CAPITALS way saying I deny them any right to share my work or make it available for testing.
10 mins later got what is undoubtedly an auto-response for (I suspect) a LOT of their authors, acknowledging that I withdraw from the agreement and my work is not to be indexed/whatever.
In my purely personal opinion, think before touching CUP.
Re: “…so I have (I think) the only say in this…”
Depends. Did your co-authors’ wills assign ownership of their share of the author’s rights to you, or did one of their heirs receive it? 72 hours to sort out a business decision where there are potentially multiple parties to be consulted is typical of the ignorance of the current generation of tech bros.
Terry could always tell them that he used a Ouija board to get in contact with his former colleagues and both of them said ‘Aww, hell no!’
You raise a question I hadn’t considered. I’d assumed their royalties would go to their living wives, but I might be wrong in assuming that decisions about AI scraping didn’t……after all, the laws concerning this kind of stuff did not exist when we published. Hmmm. However, I’d assume that even if one or both wives “didn’t agree” then it is moot – if one author refuses then it is veto territory and I am primary author on several applied chapters so I’d imagine CUP would have issues if they over-ruled me for whole book including the chapters I wrote but my two book co-authors didn’t…..but experience has taught me not to trust the law in these matters :(
Don’t forget what the 19th century author Jerome K. Jerome had to say about British law-
‘If a man stopped me in the street and demanded of me my watch, I should refuse to give it to him. If he threatened to take it by force, I feel I should, though not a fighting man, do my best to protect it. If, on the other hand, he should assert his intention of trying to obtain it by means of an action in any court of law, I should take it out of my pocket and hand it to him, and think I had got off cheaply.’
Yeah. I’ve gone up against the system and “won”…but winning is still losing, so I am very very leery of British and Australian justice systems.
Always remember: a “successful whistleblower” is an oxymoron. I’ve learnt to accept things as they are, otherwise I’d go mad. But I’m not going to totally lie down against the AI juggernaut.
Sorry for potentially complicating your life. But yes, if scraping requires all authors’ permissions, if you’re against it, then that’s that. Copyright law is absurdly complex, and CUP should be no stranger to the technicalities, which vary from country to country. At least they recognize that you (and your co-authors) are the proper rights holders, and have had the good grace to contact you. You might want to have a chat with them just to clarify who owns what and what could be done.
Thanks for the info. I appreciate being made aware of the potential pitfalls.
To be honest, given the monetary values, it is more a point of principle. But these days I’m done with “being nice” and a few words (and screenshots of emails etc) in the right ears might make waves.
However when we on this site read all the stuff about elections, “what should be” is probably not realistic.
I don’t see how Terry can sign a deal like this.
I am sure it does not include audit rights.
W/o that, they can make up or not keep track of what and how much of his content they use, pay him a token amount, and tell him to pound sand if he does not like it.
Thanks Yves. I couldn’t understand how they can possibly monitor AI scraping to work out royalties but I felt that this is above my pay grade and so put it to the cleverer commentariat to see if anyone saw something I’d missed.
The book we wrote was intended to teach people with applied knowledge in a particular area and just moderate statistical knowledge how to escape insanely priced “black box” solutions from consultancies by using tools like a spreadsheet or a “general” stats program like Stata when they wanted to gain insights into respondents’ views/attitudes.
We sought to democratise the area but that doesn’t mean giving away 15 years of work for free.
Gwern wrote an article claiming on net writers want their output used in the AI training sets. I didn’t find it convincing but he is often quoted in AI subject articles as subject matter expert.
Gwern’s post.
Tyler Cowen is a believer.
Hate to break it to you Terry, but I have read that LLMs are commonly trained on pirated material, particularly from something called Anna’s Archive. I looked up your name at CUP, and found a book “Best-Worst Scaling Theory, Methods and Applications”. I then looked that up on Anna’s Archive which I found using Google and there seems to be a link to your book there — not going to download it. (One of my books is there too, unfortunately). That means it’s probably already been scraped and used to train an LLM.
Presumably some LLM company has realized that fair use using an archive of pirated books isn’t the defense they claimed it was, and if the licensing deal with CUP is exclusive, it might see that as a way to gain a moat against their competitors.
I do wonder what kind of books will still be published once the LLMs have destroyed the market. Perhaps you could ask CUP why it is participating in this scheme. Destroying your own market seems counterproductive to me.
Thanks JustTheFacts. It’s better to know the truth, even if it’s bad. There is one thing that I believe AI can’t replace in terms of my work and which is my “last line of defence”: for those who have training in economics, so much resource use and potential ideas for resource use is along the “production possibiities curve”. My work explicitly considered moving “North-East”, “East” or “North” of that, using knowledge of new technologies.
AI cannot, by definition, model that, because there are no data. You must RUN discrete choice experiments from REAL people, to understand to what extent you can go beyond the PPC. As I say elsewhere in this thread, AI, if attempting to do this, will give the informational equivalent of the “six fingered hands” etc. This is before we even get to the fact discrete choice models have more unknowns than equations so you must use multi-modal models and wisdom to solve them. So AI will fail. But it’ll probably wipe out my royalties along the way.
So the downside is that an empirically verified method will get lambasted, because AI “can’t do it”. Many thanks for looking up my stuff and telling me what those bastards have already done. One is a mathematician I went to Cambridge with. Friend no more.
As a layman following this thread, I find it fascinating the copyright aspect.
Seems as though CUP is asking for forgiveness vs permission.
There is a real opportunity here to be a fly in the ointment. Perhaps 80 quid is the opening bid.
Rest assure that it is impossible to download your book via Anna’s Archive. For curiosity I tried some links but nothing worked. Those are all links outside Anna’s Archive.
Thanks. It is not as if the statistical designs are completely original: you CAN get them from the web if you know what to look for.
The issue is that I + co-authors taught people how to USE them to administer surveys that avoid all sorts of biases that I routinely see in political polls, economic studies etc. I routinely see questions raised on here about how to stop people from, frankly, lying, to polls.
If you know how to make surveys incentive compatible and ask secondary questions so you have 2 equations to match the two unknowns then the issue doesn’t arise yet the major polling organisations won’t make money if they “teach people how to poll properly”. If I had the resources I could poll properly in all those 6-8 key states in the USA and tell you now who was 95% likely to win the presidency. But that doesn’t get advertising revenue. Frankly I don’t care *shrug*
“Google strikes a deal with a nuclear startup to power its AI data centers”
Only a matter of time before Sam Altman’s nuclear side hustle strikes gold -> https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41321236/sam-altmans-oklo-jumps-on-google-nuclear-deal-whats-going-on
‘Sana Saeed
@SanaSaeed
A whole news report on the Binyamina attack and *not* one mention that it was a military base and the 67 injured are all IDF soldiers.
Making it seem as though Hezbollah attacked civilians is transparently an attempt to continue justifying the US-Israeli war in Lebanon.’
Sky news didn’t do themselves any favours by describing the four IDF soldiers killed as “teenage” victims and also publishing their images while glossing over the attack on civilians-
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/sky-news-describes-israeli-soldiers-teenage-and-puts-gaza-deaths-quote-marks
A Hezbollah recon unit must have identified that mess hall and when soldiers went into it for their meals so that it could be targeted. Did those soldiers think that they were safe on their base?
Reading Simplicius too often I thought one lesson of the Ukraine front is any concentration is a target in the time of fast and cheap missiles rockets and drones
Same happened in the 2006 invasion of Lebanon. The IDF had a big concentration of their troops in one area so Hezbollah hit them with a rocket or artillery and pow, there was a mass casualty event. What you say is entirely true though. Any concentration of troops is just begging to be hit.
NPR news on the radio made very clear that the Hezbollah drone attack was on soldiers on a base.
Is Sky News part of the BMM ( Big Murdoch Media)? If so, that would explain Sky News’s deceit in this regard.
Israel is turning northern Gaza into a killing cage-Jeremy Scahill
I notice Sharif Abdel Kouddous co-wrote this piece. I wonder if this is the same person who used provide periodic reports on DemocracyNow covering Egypt during Mubarak’s overthrow? The political details/machinations of Morsi coming into power is still unclear in my mind. That Egypt is controlled by the West is apparent in its lack of action as Muslim women and children are being incinerated in tents,
It’s exactly three weeks until election day. Here in GA, early in-person voting started today (7AM.) I plan to vote sometime this week.
Some electoral-related things I am wondering:
1. What’s going to happen in all those cut-off Western NC towns that still don’t have potable water or electricity? Kind of hard for electronic voting machines to work without old Sparky. I don’t think the Post Office is going to come through, either?
2. Remember Blinken and Biden “tirelessly working” for a Gaza ceasefire, that was “90% done” and “inside the 10 yard-line?” Just another example of how they lie, lie, lie. It’s now officially “too late” as votes are being cast, there are no talks on the horizon, and Harris is up in Michigan trying to do damage control. And yet she refuses to move policy one iota away from Biden and the neocons hidebound, unconditional support for genocide. Muslim and progressive voters, will they make a difference?
3. Jill Stein is on the ballot here in GA. Cornel West is but there is a big asterisk next to his name saying that he was disqualified. Would I even be able to select his name, or have the machines been programmed to “gray out” his checkbox? Democracy at work!
Jill Stein voter above you here in NC. Tired of the death and tired of capitalism. I also plan to volunteer now that I have come out of a four year long bout of homelessness.
Just watched Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, seems like GA is going to be a mess this election.
The Democrats are all up in arms about some last minute changes to require counting all the ballots in each precinct (I presume manually.) The ostensible reason is that they think some precincts will slow-walk it to try and create a chaotic scenario. I am not so sure – sounds like a common sense QA check to ensure you don’t have more votes cast than actual registered voters. No reason such a check should take weeks, maybe a few extra hours or at worst days.
I fear both sides are trying to weaponize the procedural stuff. I’ve long advocated for a rule that no precincts can release official numbers until the entire state has reported. That would end the drama of partial vote counts indicating that one candidate has the lead, then it suddenly disappearing, creating fodder for conspiracies. If nobody knows the numbers until the final count, there is no way to “make up” the difference as the prior knowledge of the number of votes you need to manufacture is gone.
Several down-ballot races are more interesting to me than the big one. We have a situation where the local county clerk of the Superior Court has so mismanaged the office that the chief justice had to declare a Judicial Emergency. She put in a new electronic filing system that screwed the pooch (Failed Software project – imagine that!) and everyone in her office basically quit. Lawyers couldn’t file motions, defendants weren’t given notice to appear in court, and one Judge even went to Facebook to plead for some help. TROs that were issued in domestic violence cases didn’t make it to the sheriff’s office.
The incumbent is a Donkey and now that the County I live in has gone purple, I fear that the low-information voter will just see the “D” next to her name (along with incumbent) and re-elect her.
I agree – and just today I got some fresh “wonderings”
1). Kamala is now apparently angling to get on The Joe Rogan Show. Seriously, reading that all over the news. I guess Trump has already been invited. What I would tune in for is to have them both on together, but I digress. So, now, apparently out of desperation I assume, Kamala is angling to get on that show. This is the very same show and host that the Dems have repeatedly stated is a hazard to public health and medicine, that people that listen to that are going to die, who as recently as this weekend on the Sunday shows, was described as a Nazi recruiting tool, the guy who has repeatedly been called a misogynist, a racist —- it does make you go Hmmmm. It is like my Grammy used to say – Don’t listen to their mouths – watch their hands and feet.
2) Another point of evidence for my theory that the Dems ( or at least a faction thereof) are trying to throw the election- Bill Clinton, you know the media tells us he is a master politician, literally threw Kamala down the deep dark well yesterday – “Laken Riley would not be dead if the illegal immigrants had been vetted” paraphrased. Oh yes, oh yes he did. It was the first time I know of that a DEM had even said the young woman’s name. Unlike Joe Biden, I do not get a dementia vibe from Clinton at all. What was that all about? I doubt he will be out on the trail again. But then again, he actually knows how to campaign and has the victories to prove it.
3). Just this AM, I am told there are multiple Congressional Districts on the East Coast where Trump is now polling ahead of Harris – a complete switch from before. The most dramatic of which is in Connecticut – and the person making the comment on my TV blamed all of this on a big change among Jewish voters.
I am not sure what to make of all this. The polls have them as still being tied. Just really strange times we live in.
RE: Rogan
There was a clip on Twitter a few days ago of Trump talking to Rogan somewhere. Looked like a public event of some type. They were shaking hands as Trump was leaving. This was part of a series of Tweets by various people talking about Trump going on Rogan. Trump even Tweeted he thought he was going to do that.
Best I can tell, there is no confirmation from Rogan. He has said in the past he didn’t want to interview Trump, according to what I have read. Until I see a confirmation from Rogan I won’t believe it.
This all happened before I read anything about Harris trying to get on Rogan. And again, no confirmation from Rogan. Harris probably didn’t want to be one upped.
If I were Rogan, I think I would pass on both of them. He has more to lose than gain IMO.
What I think I find most fascinating about this sudden Rogan issue –
For years, dating back to my childhood, I remember sitting down with my parents, and looking at CBS 60 Minutes and PBS Frontline – and their election specials profiling the 2 candidates.
What an opportunity both networks have completely, probably irreversibly, squandered. Look at 60 Minutes this week and all the controversy they have engendered. PBS Frontline has been a joke to the point of embarrassment now for several years. I would never dream of exposing my kids to their “take” on the candidates.
And here we are, with Rogan – JOE ROGAN – as possibly being the interviewer down the stretch that millions of people will watch and listen to.
What an absolute indictment of our main stream media – and what an indication of the joke they have become. I am beginning to realize more every year that this is likely unfixable for them at this point.
Did you watch Doctor Peter McCullough on Rogan? I thought that was at the very least one of the critical points in the Corona virus medicine story. He spent much of the time talking about his experience treating Corona virus patients and mostly Rogan just let him talk.
It was late 2021 if I am remembering right.
Joe Rogan is pretty high noise to signal ratio but some of his greatest hits are number 1.
I’ve probably watched a dozen or so of his shows. I like the long form interview. He covers all kinds of stuff and lets the guests talk. He will even fact check them live.
I especially liked the one with Sanjay Gupta of CNN. Rogan asked Gupta why they called IVM horse paste and made him look bad by discoloring his face. Gupta said they probably shouldn’t have done that.
Then Rogan grabs a box of IVM pills, stuffs them in Gupta’s face and says “I can buy the human form so again, why call it horse paste?” I’m paraphrasing off memory. It was quite entertaining.
Of course Gupta the next day went on CNN and said is was no good and didn’t work. Of course. I never could figure out why he would even go on his show.
I would watch Rogan before I would watch any of the MSM outlets. They are truly awful.
Yeah, went to watch Rogan to see what all the haters were about.
In the few I watched, including Gupta, I thought that Rogan was pretty good. No political point scoring. No cutting the guest off for the duration. No snark. Just holding to account. A breath of fresh air.
I don’t think this is what the haters had in mind at all, that their publicity would win over someone to seeing Rogan as basically ok.
I think the polls at this point are useless – voting has already begun in most of the country, so it’s too late for any sort of late-breaking October surprise. Unless, Israel tries to take out Iran’s oilfields and Iran retaliates in a competent manner, jacking crude to $200/bbl. Even that crazy scenario might not do much – it takes a while for crude prices to reflect at the pumps, refiners already bought the stuff and have to work through inventory, etc.
I agree that this is a strange timeline. You would think that the very high probability that the during the next round of Masterpiece war theater an actor goes off script would concentrate the voters minds, but I get the sense foreign policy is way down the list of voter concerns.
I do think that at the margins, Harris decision to stick to the Biden genocide plan will hurt her. But I don’t know that it will make a difference, for reasons above, and I really want her endorsement by Cheney to backfire in the worst way.
Kamala was on Howard Stern last week. Very boring interview, worse than when Biden and Hillary made their appearance. No substance and very stilted for all the interviews. Howard is usually able to use the long form interview to interest me.
Joe Rogan is not that bright but at least he acknowledges this fact.
I seem to remember a Joe Rogan endorsement not so long ago that had the Harris, etc. liberal scolds’ heads exploding! But I guess when the endorsement is for the pre-ordained, everything’s cool.
Jill and Cornel (sans asterisk) are on our western Oregon county ballot, as is JFK Jr., but not Trump. I assume that federal office ballots are the same statewide, so I have to wonder what the eastern counties (most of which have voted to leave Oregon and join Idaho) will say about that.
The New York Post says that Trump missed a deadline for the informational voting pamphlet the state mailed out, but that he will be on all the ballots.
Cool. Makes sense, we’re definitely not any kind of swing state so we do tend to be somewhat forgotten.
Please check what ever ballot mailing you have in hand as it is NOT your official Oregon ballot. The elections site says:
Important Election Dates
Oct. 15, 2024 – Last day to register to vote. Registration cards postmarked by this date or submitted online no later than 11:59 pm are valid.
Oct. 16, 2024 – Last day to mail state voters’ pamphlet.
Oct. 16, 2024 – First day to mail ballots to voters.
Oct. 18, 2024 – Last day to mail ballots to voters without daily mail service.
Oct. 21, 2024 – Last day for political party to request free statewide voter file from Secretary of State.
So ballots don’t get mailed till tomorrow – waiting on mine so I just checked
Re: Western North Carolina voting:
Surely the BidenHarris administration will
rush in the means for the locals to sustain Democracy.
Administration’s logical posture:
Better Dead Than Red.
We’ve been warned for decades that the wars would come home and be against us.
“Cornel West is but there is a big asterisk next to his name saying that he was disqualified. Would I even be able to select his name, or have the machines been programmed to “gray out” his checkbox?”
The ballot is set in stone now, hence the posters that will be on the doors of the precincts. His disqualification came after the ballot was confirmed, so you can vote for him but the vote will not be counted.
>The Militarisation of Scandinavia & the Great Northern War 2.0 Glenn Diesen (Micael T)
The militarisation and vassalisation of Scandinavia are important to challenge Russia’s access to the two other seas on Russia’s Western borders – the Baltic Sea and the Arctic
That process of “vassalisation” covers all of Europe and extends to the sphere of influence, both economically and militarily, that the West exerts over vast areas of Latin America, the Pacific, and Africa. What people in those countries have to say about it matters not, anymore than those living within the Hegemon’s national boarders have to say about the allocation/distritbution of resources.
This “militerisation and vassalisation” proceeds without much input from the plebs/masses. There is an ineluctable drive that feels completely outside the realm of individual agency. The cards are going to fall where they will, the poor and downtrodden will suffer what they must and justice will remain elusive, a dream invented in the minds of men.
Routine dental X-rays are not backed by evidence—experts want it to stop
Wow. I JUST went to an “acclaimed” dental school to get low cost dental care provided by the student. They gave a full panoramic x ray AND a full set of bite wing x rays.
After COVID, and now this, I have zero trust in any medical profession anymore,
As someone with pre-fluoride era teeth and who has has a HUUGE amount of dental work, I have to disagree. Of course, the article does not explain who is in a high risk group as far as teeth are concerned.
First, if you have had fillings, you can and do get decay UNDER them. This cannot be detected by testing the margins for softness (which = decay). By the time you get symptomatic (as in have pain) the root is in danger. So if people with susceptible teeth take this recommendation to heart, it will have the effect of replacing fillings with root canals or extractions.
Second, when people like me (with pre-fluoride era or otherwise not so hot teeth) get decay, it moves pretty rapidly through the tooth structure.
Even with Xrays, decay can be hidden by being in the shadow of the filling. And some teeth die without pain (you need a root canal or extraction regardless, otherwise you get an abscess which can have serious general heath bad effects). I have had routine X-rays also detect early stage of root death (the pulp and nerve start looking a bit grey in the X-ray). That could never be found in an exam. Trust me, a root canal is a better remedy for a dead/dying root than an extraction, but it you let the decay continue in a dying tooth, it will have to be extracted (there won’t be enough structure left to anchor a post to hang a crown off it).
My dentist here wanted not to do an Xray (as in more along the lines of the current ADA recommendation for those with normal teeth). I insist on them once a year. I have had WAY WAY too many instances of serious problems occurring between one six month check up and the next.
I appreciate your dental history and your individual history, But let me show you how stupid and corrupt the dental industry is.
We all hear this talk about fluoride, but we never hear about Molybdenum which is just as, or possible more important to enamel hardness than fluoride.
https://www.jmchemsci.com/article_160981_041959f44ef51db7464b7ec76d8c0420.pdf
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3792506/
So who is anyone to say that for you it was only a lack of fluoride? I am not saying it was not, but genetics and environment paly a distinct role for all of us. Why are they not telling us to make sure we get enough molybdenum? Do some thing deplete molybdenum?
X Rays carry a risk, so this turns into a risk/benefit call. I have not been to a dentist in six years. They said it did not look like I had any cavities but did the x rays anyway. They did not provide me with informed consent, and I did not know that what they did was contrary to ADA recommendations. Also, the waste in both time and money.
Because my two younger brothers ate the same diet I did, had fluoridated water, and they have great teeth. Please don’t treat me as if I have not made an adequate investigation.
God I despise the shade thrown at one of the indisputably greatest public health programs in history. We had well water in the 60’s and took fluoride pills. The amount of sugar I consumed in my teens and 20’s would have left me toothless otherwise, bad enough to have the relatively small number of problems I have in my late 60’s.
Can I draw the scientific conclusion that it was fluoride that led to your higher rate of carries and not genetics or some other factor? Not at all.
The difference might be that you are female or you had some genetic difference from them.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3267319/
Sorry, what you are saying is just anecdotal and not scientific.
And to answer JohnnySacks, I am not saying fluoride is not good, I am just saying that there is more to the story and there are some people who cannot handle fluride, again, because of genetics.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1382668917302661
To blanket a diverse genetic population with fluoride might benefit the population as a statistic, but those people who are the outliers will suffer.
I am sorry, talk to any US dentist. After the fluoridation became widespread, there was a pronounced drop in the incidence of caries across the population, to the degree that it damaged the economics of the entire profession. Hence the shift to cosmetic dentistry to preserve incomes. Accordingly, many dentists I have seen volunteer given how many restorations that I have v. the obvious care I take that I must not have gotten fluoride (one even said, “You have the entire history of dentistry in your mouth” due to the variety of restorations I have). So professionals with big samples disagree.
Second, while women do have a SOMEWHAT greater propensity to getting caries, the difference between my brothers and me is dramatic. And the perp is believed to be estrogen. I got PLENTY of cavities before I hit menarche. In addition, my mother had decay levels typical for her generation, as in she did not have notably weak teeth.
Another example, pre and post fluoride. My partner and I, pre-fluoride, are poster children for fillings. Amalgam, plastic, crowns, the full sad story. I was getting fillings in my teens and so was my partner.
Enter our kids. The grew up with fluoride, and we had their teeth coated with a film when they were in their teens, to protect fissures etc from decay. They are now in their thirties.
Son has been to the dentist once in his life for filling, due to a cherry pie not being properly de-pitted (our bad).
Daughter in her thirties. No fillings.
You would have to say they share our genes. The only difference is that we had no fluoride and they had it in the water.
I can understand this. I grew up in a totally fluorided environment in 1970s UK. I got a few fillings due to the usual kiddie sweetie crazes etc but my teeth “thoroughly settled down” by age 18.
I went 6 years when living outside the UK without a single trip to a dentist (because Australia and Sweden don’t consider your mouth to be important where public funding is concerned – WTF?). First checkup in 2015 upon my return to the UK, the dentist compared my last recorded (2009) NHS x-ray etc with current one along with very thorough check-up (which I thought was looking at roots and stuff beyond the x-ray though I cannot of course be sure, but she knew to look because I have sensitive teeth). She was also being thorough because family history of oral cancer. She said “the deterioration in your teeth and mouth generally over 6 years is what I routinely see in older patients between 6 monthly check-ups”.
I’m a little concerned about issues that might be Long-COVID related but on balance I’ve decided to keep to a good dental hygeine regime and stay away from dentists – who all around here refuse masking or any anti-COVID protections when a mask can’t be used. The GP surgery has new fancy a/c systems that look rather like the ones supposed to suppress viral particles. The dental surgery is much more “awww, here’s a lollipop, that’ll be £120 please”.
And x-rays can reveal hidden bruxism, as I learned when the dentist told me that the x-rays showed I had hidden bruxism. Impacted wisdom teeth say, “hold my beer”.
X-rays for dental and medical purposes, combined with other types of scans, can represent quite a concentration of potential or actual types of radiation over a short period. Patients may not be fully aware of which type of scan does what, beyond giving the provider some useful information. Besides being acronyms or seemingly familiar terms, what do x-rays, CT, CAT, MRI or other types of scans, using whatever potentially accumulative medium do to a person? Radioactive or not, maybe not so obvious to a patient more concerned with staying alive or treating whatever ails them at that time?
Since dentists and doctors typically don’t interact much on the topic, I’d be interested in thoughts of how to track such issues. Are there standards beyond the ADA or other bodies for any combined or cumulative exposure by type and period? Do we chart dosages and half-lives, maybe carry around geiger counters like a friend has to for his treatment?
Those issues could apply to many, including older patients and cancer survivors such as myself.
Dental X-rays are peanuts in terms of radiation dose. ~0.005 mSv.
My wife had a CT exam two weeks ago to check for internal injuries after an automobile accident. [Thankfully, there weren’t any.] That dose was ~7.7 mSv. More than you’d get from a thousand dental X-rays.
https://www.radiologyinfo.org/en/info/safety-xray
Medical imaging is all low-dose. Contrast that to the doses delivered during radiation therapy for cancer. Those typically clock in at 45000 mSv. That’s nearly 6000 CT exams, or 9 million dental X-rays.
When talking about radiation hazards, one MUST discuss the actual amounts of radiation. Failing to do so is how environmentalists end up with bad reputations in technical communities. When dealing with radiation exposure, potential doses can vary by many orders of magnitude, and if people get all panicked about the low end of the scale, it ends up doing more harm than good. Dental X-rays provide valuable data, and the radiation dose they deliver is really low. We should keep them.
You say all of this but the ADA recommends against these x rays. That was the point of the artcile, that dentists are not following the advice of theri own organization.
And also, the risks of dental x rays and cancer is well established, which is why the ADA has made this recommendation.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6341170/ (2018)
The study you reference is a meta-study, gathering data from earlier studies and evaluating them in aggregate. I notice that most of those earlier studies were from 2010 or earlier, going back to the 1980s. They are basically all from the X-ray film era, with essentially zero coverage of digital X-ray machines. Modern digital X-ray machines reduce the dose by a factor of 5.
Also, most of the studies focused on full-mouth/panoramic scans, which impose a dose nearly 20X that of bitewings. The panoramic scans also send radiation through the brain and multiple glands, whereas the bitewings go strictly through the mouth without any glandular involvement. A lot of dentists (include my own) only do bitewings for these reasons.
And thumb carcinomas? The only way that can happen is if the dental radiographer is an idiot who holds the film in place with his thumb while taking every single shot, resulting in exposure to many thousands of X-rays. This is why where was only one recorded thumb cancer case in the entire collection of studies.
I just had one of those today, Wish I didn’t now.
All the studies taken after 2000 showed a positive association.
Before leaving the US permanently in 2021/2 I decided to get a dental checkup, first since 2010. Yeah, I know. That time it had been a 17 year gap, and there were no fillings, so I was hopeful. Anyway, one root canal, three crowns, four extractions, and 4 fillings, all was well.
The x-ray detected a wisdom tooth had grown in at an angle, and was crushing the tooth in front of it (thanks, ‘wisdom’!). x-ray also detected other caries, etc., now maybe most of that could have been seen visually, but I don’t see how it would hurt to have that extra layer of detection.
Incidentally, 1 year later one of the crowns malfunctioned, not physically, but that tooth just began to hurt, hitting 9 or 10 on the pain scale. Only ice cubes on the tooth were able to bring the pain down temporarily, it came in waves all night. Lucky to find a dentist here in the west of Ireland at short notice; choice was wait (!!!) 2 weeks for a root canal, or yank it. So out it came, never felt such joy at losing a tooth. He also took an x-ray, and saw nothing, could only speculate that the crown was just a bit too close to the nerve, and it was mis-firing.
Makes me wonder about people without insurance or social health care (my extraction was only 50 euro).
Your last sentence is very pertinent even to those of us who live in otherwise lauded comprehensive health care systems (UK, Australia etc). I find it totally weird that the two countries I have citizenship of have “downgraded” oral health compared to everything else.
I was lucky enough to go 6 years not seeing a dentist in Sydney (with no adverse consequences) and when returning to UK get an “A-OK”. However, so many do not. WTF? UK NHS dentistry is a complete joke these days so may as well be ignored in comparisons. We are regressing at an alarming pace.
Probably you can blame Neoliberalism
Completely
The evidence is actually about not needing annual X-Rays, not giving x-Rays without a prior exam and a reason. Which is sensible. The way is written has a click aita flavor.
I’d expect students to do a little more than average because they’re learning.
I go to Tijuana for dental care. Some people I know are appalled. I tell them about the $1500 crown I got in the US that needed a root canal within a year. Just because it’s expensive doesn’t mean it’s good. And have had nothing but positive experiences south of the border. It’s like a factory, in a good way.
We were also quite happy with our walk across the border dental care in TJ, as were, obviously, those who enthusiastically recommended the jaunt.
I don’t believe fluoride treatments are as important as the dental industry insists. I never had fluoride treatments but my teeth are solid and I had few cavities. My older sister on the other hand has had serious teeth problems. I think what you are borne with is the most important factor in how healthy your teeth are. I’m assuming normal tooth care.
Tea is loaded with fluoride. Yes I have brown teeth but no cavities!
Fluoride is also naturally present in meat, fish, cereals and fruit but that’s somewhat determined by local water supplies. I’m guessing that means in part that the excessive use of fluoridated water has increased the fluoride content in plants and animals.
It’s also hard to get cavities if you take in minimal amounts of sugar. Not that grown adults ever consume lots of sugar, not even seasonally when the house is full of candy bars for trick or treaters!
And they no longer even have to bother to purchase, store, and develop film – it’s all digital. Capital equipment intensive, but that public health money is better spent on Raytheon and General Dynamics I guess.
“pre-fluoride”
If you mean fluoride in water, fluoride is illegal in Hawaii, only is used on military base water systems so we’re all “pre-fluoride”.
“Venezuela: María Corina Machado Hastens Collapse of Far-Right Justice First Party”
I’m probably biased here but my reading is that you had a bunch of thieves with different aims that banded together so that they could win the election and then proceed to loot Venezuela. To make it look respectable they put this old dude as their leader – their front man so to speak – and after the election he would be pushed to the side with a bag of money to shut him up. But they lost that election, their front man shot through to the US who was probably funding them all, so now these thieves are having a falling out and are squabbling over what they can grab from the wreckage. And I don’t think what I typed is that far from the truth either.
“The FBI Knocked On My Door”
Back in earlier times, Winston Churchill was talking about the differences between democracy and what life was like in Soviet Russia. So he came out with this line –
‘Democracy is when there is a knock at your door early in the morning – and it’s probably the milk man.’
Simpler times.
CSIS knocked at this guy’s door: https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2022/03/20/hiatus/
He removed the posting in which he recounts the visit of the CSIS agent to his place.
Re: Thaad deployment.
A THAAD battery can consist of as little as 6 vehicles (3 launchers, two control vehicles and an AT-TPY2 radar system). All the individual elements can be fitted within a C17 airlifter. So theoretically a full battery could be moved in 24 hours, although in reality it would take longer, and longer still to integrate it into Israels air defense network.
The useability of the THAAD depends entirely on the overall quality of the detection and targeting defensive system, which would include surveillance of potential Iranian launch sites. If they (i.e Israel/US) are capable of distinguishing the regular Iranian ballistic missiles (the Fateh-313) from the potentially far more accurate and lethal newer missiles with possibly hypersonic penetrators, then THAAD could be useful as part of the overall protective umbrella. The THAAD would fit into the overall layered system, focusing on the more advanced incoming targets, while the domestic shorter ranged Israeli missiles would be targeted on the less dangerous missiles. If they can’t distinguish between them, then obviously a battery will use up its missiles very quickly and be overwhelmed by a wave of incoming targets. The whole idea of the Iron Dome was that it would sweep up the less important cheaper missiles that Davids Sling and other much more expensive systems would ignore. But it looks like they are either very short on missiles now, or the system isn’t working as intended. Or possibly there are multiple layers of bluff going on, its anyones guess.
As Yves suggests, the primary value of THAAD would seem to be as a tripwire force, which is why probably Israel won’t respond until they are in place. If the Pentagon had any sense, they would know this and would be dragging their heels over sending over a battery. If the operators of that battery had any sense, they’d immediately go on sick leave. But we seem long past the time when anyone is showing any sense.
I think what we are seeing here is a step-change in the calculus (can you have that?) of missile defence. The original concept was defence of the US against long-range, hence ICBM attack from Iran or N Korea, defeated by mid-course interceptors using KE kills with radar cueing from sites in another continent. All the simulations and industry presentations I saw presupposed a very small number of missiles with nuclear warheads. But as we’ve seen in Ukraine, it’s now become easy to overwhelm defences with sheer numbers, and it wouldn’t surprise me to find that at least some Iranian missiles are now fitted with penetration aids for use in the terminal phase as well. In other words, the added value of the THAAD, over any sustained period, is likely to be small.
I agree about the tripwire idea: crudely, the idea is to get US servicemen killed by Iranian missiles, so that the pressure for war with Iran will be irresistible. But I think the US know that, which is why they are probably trying to go slow at least until after the election, when it will be somebody else’s problem.
I think to be fair to the air defence planners, it was always envisaged that you’d have multiple layers of defence (as the Russians have implemented), so you can match high end interceptors to high end incoming missiles, with something cheaper and simpler to deal with the simpler missiles. But the reality seems very different, it seems the high end stuff just ate the budget of the western equivalent of the Pantsir (which seems to have been an outstanding success for the Russians).
The Iron Dome was supposed to perform that role, along with systems like the Iris-T. But… well, defence procurement issues.
Another factor that might have been in play was the assumption that western air fleets would always be able to dominate the skies and sweep away any local air forces which would enable them to bomb everything on the ground. And as a consequence they neglected to invest heavily into air defenses or EM warfare. But the US has found itself in a situation where they are up against a peer competitor with the Russians and soon the Chinese. That “doctrine” is not going to work with them anymore.
In general, the idea was the US would achieve hegemonic dominance while Russia was divided and China was not white enough to ever compete with the Garden. The threat of being cut off from the Garden would be enough to get the oligarchs to keep everything on the up and up. The decadent West just doesn’t grasp oligarchs are only as powerful as the nation-state allows.
With full spectrum dominance, would be terrorists would be recruited and dealt with before becoming a problem.
Aurelien, are you that rara avis of a senior civil servant with a science or maths degree? Re your quip about mixed metaphors, it is possible to have a calculus of discrete mathematics but, as you intuited, calculus is generally undertaken on functions applied to the continuous real numbers rather than, say, the integers.
There is also a lot of calculus applied to quantum mechanics but here the inputs are left in continuous space (this may be a philosophical error) but the quantum operators are defined in such a way that everything is a multiple of Planck’s constant etc. which is considered the limit of measurement in QM and arranged such that certain terms fall to zero using Dirac delta functions, to obtain the quantisation.
Thank you. Some of my jobs were science-adjacent but that’s about it. I now feel much better informed than I did ten minutes ago!
To adduce further argument to the idea that American AD is a trip wire: when have Americans ever had to rely on surface to air? In the missile era, the U.S. has had total or near total air dominance in its wars. I read that even the Patriot system, under U.S. operation only has confirmed friendly-fire kills, the rest of the claims being just that. So, in the same sense that I wouldn’t take advice from a millionaire on how to survive homelessness, I would, if I were interested in defending airspace from missiles, not ask the American military. As well as being a dangerous trip wire, it seems a combination of propaganda and a way to funnel tax money to arms companies, ask me. Being a trip wire, its placement could serve as protection for Nevatim airbase, assuming the Iranians haven’t gleaned that the U.S. wants war almost as bad as the Israelis.
US investment in preventing air attack on its infantry/armor goes back to North Africa and Italy where US soldiers endured attacks by Luftwaffe pilots trained in tactics perfected on the Eastern front.
One result of 8th Air Force bombing was to killed ground attack aircraft and divert German airplanes to defending ball bearing plants…….
THAAD and Patriot were spec’ed to keep aircraft and missiles off US troops in a line of contact. AEGIS spec’ed to keep missiles off CVN’s.
None of it considered someone making hundreds of missiles! Nor fighting a tit for tat terror by missile war. Some thought had been made about decoys but mainly for the nuclear defense missions.
We will see the result of the $3/4 trillion spent on Star Wars since 1987.
I don’t find the tripwire argument compelling but, yeah, Russia is decades ahead in air defense–to say nothing of complementary leads in EW and MIC production. Impact of doctrine going deep back into Soviet times.
Where are Code Pink and all the other anti-war groups? We need them to point out we’re frogs and that water we’re in isn’t a Jacuzzi.
Where is Congress? War powers act, anyone? Is everyone too busy counting their Nvidia unrealized gains and naming a boat? McFly?
Code Pink is around, but they dared to not praise the Great One and became enemies of Daily Kos and other right wing sites.
Code Pink and Win Without War are still around, as is Our Revolution. All are soliciting signatures to urge congress to stop shipping Israel weapons (a fundraising strategy, I know…I’ve sent money too).
Oddly, my recollection is that only Code Pink is urging peace in Ukraine (Win Without War is absolutely pro-war in Ukraine). Perhaps Mearsheimer’s suggestion that Ukraine is the west’s doing is still too much of a third rail. The American public is transfixed by “bad bad Putin.” (“Americans are a primitive people disguised by the latest inventions.” – George Santayana)
Incidentally, the peace-niks are angry! How is that peaceful?
Thanks for the reply. I need to send a check to Code Pink. Money = speech thanks to our wonderful Supreme Court.
The THAAD was designed as US’ entry in Mid Range Air Defenses (MEADS, Germany has a system as well). Its engagement range, ~150 km, is less than sea based (DDG) Aegis/SM-3, but longer by ~100% than Patriot/PAC3. It hits the warhead outside the atmosphere.
The US deployed one TPY 2 radar (THAAD battery sensor) a number of years ago reported based some high point in Negev. In 2017 US deployed a battery in an exercise. This suggests the integration of THAAD sensors and engagement into the IDF AMD command and control is established. If IDF uses standard US data links and taxonomies it is easy.
TPY 2 may not see a hypersonic warhead until late in the warhead mission, they are not exo-atmosphere high ballistic.
In any event we are seeing systems spawned by star wars and managed by Missile Defense Agency “coming out”!
THAAD needs a test!
Per this and other articles, THAAD and Israel’s existing Arrow are roughly comparable. Adding a THAAD or two to the network seems like it won’t make much of a difference either way. At best it could defend against 5%-10% of an Iranian strike. I’d bet it won’t even do that.
Why would Iran take the bait and bother attacking the US crewed THAAD? They would have to go out of their way to (find and) attack the command posts to kill anyone anyway. There have lots of other more useful targets.
If Israel is waiting for the THAAD, I can’t say I see why.
It allows the US to test it’s weapon system in real life scenario that is less existential then a full blown peer to peer conflict.
I’ve seen comment (for example from Patarames mentioned here) that this THAAD is actually a replacement for the already deployed AN/TPY-2 radar that Iranian missiles destroyed in the previous attack.
And before mocking US air-defense radar tech, AN/TPY-2 is barely mobile radar, it consists of 3-4 separate trucks, all weighing 28-30 tonnes and the antenna module, weighing 34 tonnes. It’s too heavy to rotate, so it can only tilt up and down, while on the horizontal the beam is streered electronically and can cover only 100-120 degrees of the circle.
It’s supposed to be theater defense system, and frankly, I don’t think Israel has enough strategic depth to be nothing but front line in this time and age.
Regardless of how well or not so well the THAAD works (Larry Wilkerson just called it the air defense version of theF-35), the US has only 50 missiles to send. With the usual rule of 2 air defense missiles per incoming missile, it could only intercept at the absolute tops 25 Iranian missiles. Iran was believed to have >3,000 ballistic missiles a few years back (again per Wilkerson) and probably has more now.
Re the question of THAAD setup time. I can’t address that directly, but it takes about 12 hours to set up the Russian S400 system, which I’d guess is as complex as THAAD. However, after repeated encounters with Martyanov’s scorn for US weaponry, we have to be careful about assuming the S400 time can help us here.
‘Yanis Varoufakis
@yanisvaroufakis
Israel has just won the war crime of the century prize: The IDF used chemical weapons on UN peacekeepers!’
When this war finally ends, I think that because of what the Israelis have been doing, that they are going to have to add several more pages to the Geneva Convention – or the Geneva Checklist as the Israelis call it. What countries should be doing is calling their Ambassadors back from Israel for “consultations” for a day or two or reduce the number of staff in Israeli Embassies in each country to show them some consequences. But they won’t of course.
Re Glenn Diesen on the new “great game” of NATO versus Russia–somebody should go out and buy these gamers an Xbox. They want to relive the 19th and 20th centuries even though circumstances now are quite different with the US and UK–the primary instigators–as declining powers dependent on all those imaginary “adversaries” for the means to continue their standard of living. This the reason some of us contend that the idea of US being behind Israeli actions can’t possibly be “strategic” unless the instigators share the Zionist goals of the Israelis–themselves a throwback to settler/colonial days. Perhaps we should call our present time the century of the re-enactors as pipsqueaks like Blinken seek to become the new Churchills and Roosevelts. Time to move on.
I have been thinking for some time now that a lot of Neocons must have been influenced by the novels of Tom Clancy rather than the 19th century Great Game. I mean seriously, the whole idea of “Project Ukraine” could very well have been penned by Tom Clancy in his earlier years like his 1994 novel “Debt of Honour”. So in a way we are living in a Tom Clancy world
I think of Clancy as a figure from the reign of Ronnie, our last demented president. At least back then we still had an antiwar movement and memories of Vietnam (that memory was the thing Ronnie and his successor were trying to expunge).
There was an actual interview where either Blinken or Sullivan literally cited the 1980s classic propaganda movie, “Red Dawn” in expressing his view of the situation.
Parody becomes impossible with this crowd.
Totally.
I realized only in the past 2,5 years that the entire “knowledge base” of “the West” is of the level of spy novels and in fact originates with those. After all where did the info and “insight” about RU come from mostly? Secret intelligence. And Clancy who wasn´t a spook not even in the army but an insurance guy cooked up this childish “content” and here we go. So is this seriously the level of our imperial guards? If one thinks of it it´s actually unbelievable. It´s that dumb.
Clancy it seems spent a fair amount of time talking to mostly navy officers and picked up a lot of ideas about “capabilities” one or a few were “sensitive”. HUMINT to write novels.
He prolly read Jane’s, etc. As well as military journals.
The best idea he had for this AF veteran was an A-10 strafing a Soviet destroyer with its 30mm. In Red October.
The rounds would have gone through the light ship like rain.
In Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy I think it is the old retired female researcher that said….poor dears, trained to Empire. They are lost in a world they no longer understand.
Putting Bill Kristol aside as he’s a media green room guy at this point, the immediate problem is we have crossed into the degenerate offspring of the neocons. As evil as Brzezinski was, the logic behind his motives was to squeeze everything to make economic terms we would dominate before China rose. He had it out for the Russians and missed the ball, but even Trump has picked up on the idea that the US should have been bringing Moscow into the fold.
All of this just ran into the Ferengi (Bill and Hillary Clinton) who couldn’t resist not grabbing anything not nailed down, making remaining in the empire unviable.
The Millenium Games are out there, but Obama made a deal with Iran. Trump ripped it up, and Biden took a dump on the negotiating table as his opening offer. I come back to Clark’s seven countries in five years.
https://www.salon.com/2007/10/12/wesley_clark/
Not only do we have degenerate versions of the neocons, but we don’t even have anyone with the intelligence of Bill Clinton or Obama from the neoliberals. Then they have all aligned with the “orientalists” who more or less go around openly saying “might white of you.”
I think the Yemen level of missiles was completely missed, but I feel like Brzezinski and his generation knew what Iran could field with time and access to Eurasia achieve, hence the goal of establishing total spectrum dominance in the region, physically control the routes between Africa Europe, and Asia while controlling the seas (who owns the oil is somewhat irrelevant as long as it flows). His (Kissinger too) followers and the followers of Bill (not Hillary, she’s one of the followers) are too stupid to see what happened. When we knocked over Libya, we loudly announced everything was a smash and grab and that Shrub wasn’t an aberration. People who might want to get rid of the Ayatollahs in Iran aren’t going to work with the US or treat the US as anything other than a foe at this point. Brzezinki’s chess game makes sense on paper for imperialists, but JC and Octavian understood they had to expand citizenship and make lives better for the street.
Marmoream relinquo, quam latericiam accepi
https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamandrzejewski/2019/04/15/mapping-san-franciscos-human-waste-challenge-132562-case-reports-since-2008/
This is San Francisco, the capital of the United Federation of Planets from Star Trek.
It amounts to this: make everywhere else worse so that their countries look better.
No major reforms needed.
Then it’s just another example of living in the past even assuming that much of what Clancy wrote back then was achievable at that time. (Most of the Star Wars stuff was fiction then and largely remains fiction now.)
The reality of America’s industrial capability is on full display with the Boeing strike – an industrial giant brought to it’s knees by twenty years of hollowing out capacity, wrecked by management. America’s MIC capacity max’ed out (with a DOD getting a trillion dollars a year) supplying weapons for Ukraine.
How in the world would America have the logistical capacity to make and move everything required to support a real war in the Middle East? Bibi may be relying on pulling America into a larger war, but he, like every other Western leader seems to be living in the past assuming capability which no longer exists.
From the when did Rome fall link
Take note, US imperialists.
Ya gotta follow the money…
The silver Denarius ends up with no silver content in the mid 3rd century and its a fate accompli from there, the empire hanging on, similar to our post 1964 heritage, where we did the same darn thing, and here it is 60 years later.
Pharma company Lilly rigs German law to increase profit expected via its “Mounjaro ” sales in Germany.
JUNGE WELT reporting:
“Lobby for “Lex Lilly”
Settlement of US pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly in return for friendly medical research law? Documents indicate top priority”
By Ralf Wurzbacher
https://archive.is/0dpje
“The Medical Research Act (MFG), which has now been passed by the Bundestag and Bundesrat, allows companies to keep the prices applicable to health insurance companies under wraps after it comes into force. The previous intrigues are on record. According to a memo dated September 13, 2023 from Department 117 of the Federal Ministry of Health, CEO Ricks could be informed “that the BMG is complying with Eli Lilly’s request and plans to allow confidential discounts on the manufacturer’s price as part of the MFG.” And weeks before, a ministry employee had noted that Eli Lilly was making its investment decision dependent on the promise to end price transparency. In fact, the organization “Investigative Europe” had already called for the files to be released in December 2023, but was put off for a long time. If the public had known about the indications of a “Lex Lilly” earlier, the legislation would hardly have passed so easily.”
p.s. I remember the very decent first streamer adaptation of the Sackler case “DOPESICK” – much darker than the one done by Netflix as satire later – and there Germany is established as the bullet-proof place which had to be penetrated first as permission for Oxy was concerned. Once Germany would have agreed all of Europe would have followed…
Re: Scientists discover negative time:
The BS tone behind this is just so depressing.
This is nothing new and is no doubt a way to grab more money from another funding agency staffed by clueless Federal bureaucrats.
In fact, this is a *direct* consequence of Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, which states that deltaE*deltat<some constant. There is, in fact, an entire branch of physics where this comes up called Quantum Scattering Theory.
Does the Donald read NC? ;)
Yesterday afternoon’s water cooler noted the similarity between the stereotypes in Kamala’s manly man ad and the Village People YMCA. Yesterday evening Trump cut short a rally due to people in the crowd fainting and played YMCA to wrap things up – https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4933368-donald-trump-pennsylvania-town-hall-medical-emergencies-music/
” “Would anybody else like to faint? Please raise your hand,” Trump quipped after the second individual was helped to their feet.
Rather than continue with questions, he indicated that he wanted his staff to play more of his music. They obliged, playing “Time to Say Goodbye” by Andrea Bocelli and Luciano Pavarotti and “It’s A Man’s Man’s Man’s World” by James Brown.
“We could do another question or two if you’d like,” Trump said, eliciting cheers from the crowd, before changing his mind. “How about this? We’ll play ‘YMCA,’ and we’ll go home.” “
PATRICK LAWRENCE: De-Westernizing Ourselves
Embarking on a process of personal, individual “de–Westernization” is absolutely essential if we propose to defend the humanity of humanity.
This is an edited version of the second of two lectures the author gave recently on “Defending the Humanity of Humanity.” He spoke Oct. 10 at Mut zur Ethik, a twice-yearly conference held in Sirnach, near Zurich.
https://consortiumnews.com/2024/10/14/patrick-lawrence-de-westernizing-ourselves/
The “turd burger” stock of Boeing is now below $150 (and sinking.)
Down something like 60-70% since 2019 while NVDA prints confetti money for shareholders.
https://archive.ph/0Mm9j
(It’s a big turd burger, shareholders, and you’re all gonna take a bite! Let it slide down your gullet, Cramer!)
Boeing…..Make It Great To Fly Again. We must save these corporations! \sarc
On the economy news front, I clicked article above thinking it went to CNN and coverage of the Harris campaign. Argh, Dean Baker writing the platitudes known far and wide on the Bidenomics and our wondrous US economy.
Sidebar. My semi annual premium for auto insurance is in hand, payable to State Farm by the Thanksgiving holiday. Time to go shopping, as the increase appears to quite likely be above and beyond any recent CPI reports.
Boeing’s plan to survive the strike:
We’ll just take on more debt, dilute shareholders, and outlast ’em with our pile of Wall St. dough. And &^%$-can a boat load of workers.
No need to make those pesky planes!
Whats Boeing shares worth soon?
$7.07 to $7.87 range
I wonder if all that cash spent on share buybacks and dividends was a good idea given the $35bn they are now seeking
I realize that Boeing is TBTF for a variety of reasons, but this company is not a bank, and it is no longer 2008–they will *not* get the same sweetheart deal
What about a theme and variation on a GFC-era classic: the “Good bank/Bad bank two-step?”
Spinoff Boeings defense business as a new company, with a new ticker for Wall St. crackheads to chase.
Firewall all the liabilities like lawsuits, bad debt, regulatory risk, and bad union contracts in a “Bad Boeing.” Run to Federal Bankruptcy Court, Ch. 11. Ye Olde bondholders get haircuts, shareholders get crammed down. Allows for write-offs of past sins and unburdens Boeing from the past.
More muppets need to get destroyed first, to get the stock price into low double digits, IMO. Buys time for the “players: to offload current Boeing stock holdings into pension funds and ETFs so that Joe-sixpack takes the hit.
“SITREP 10/14/24: Russia Tightens Ring on Key Region on Eve of Zelensky “Victory Plan” Unveiling”
‘Now it appears that the cancelled Ramstein meeting, nixed under the guise of prioritizing hurricane Milton, will not be rescheduled at all’
Looks like the guys at The Duran called it correctly. The US is abandoning the Ukraine and are dumping the whole thing on the Europeans to deal with – and pay for. They can’t do it of course and cannot supply the ammo much less the weapons that the Ukrainians are demanding. Doesn’t matter who is voted in next month. The Uniparty has spoken. Next – Project Iran.
I see the Skripals are back in the news. I don’t suppose anything new will come from the inquiry into Dawn Sturgess’s death.
A police constable will go to the box containing the files of the Dawn Sturgess case, lift the lid, peer inside, note that nothing has changed so will close it again and put it back on the shelf.
Schrödinger’s evidence. / ;)
If a Skripal falls on a Salisbury park bench, and nobody but MI5 sees it, did it really happen?
And once again the “news” is evidence free, based on nothing other than Sergei Skripals “belief” – https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/inquiry-into-british-womans-2018-novichok-poisoning-start-2024-10-13/
At least Reuters mentions this –
“Skripal – who sold Russian secrets to Britain…”
But I’m sure a man whose integrity is for sale would never, no way, nosireebob, adhere to a certain viewpoint for a further payment from the Brits. At least that is my belief!
Also saw recent articles from the BBC and Guardian which I won’t link to because they all say the same thing. None of them mentions Porton Down being right next door.
John Helmer is watching closely:
https://johnhelmer.net/over-by-christmas-timetable-just-announced-for-the-british-governments-novichok-trial-in-kangaroo-court/
https://johnhelmer.net/the-british-governments-novichok-trial-reveals-a-toxic-shock/
If the Skripals are not present at the proceedings, it means they are dead or kept in close confinement, not for their own safety, but for the safety of the UK authorities. And the idea that Putin would take anything more than a casual interest in a GRU double agent is fanciful. An FSB agent, yes, maybe, but GRU? The GRU are always up to crazy, semi-disciplined shit and have no connection to the Russian Presidency.
Most likely he was a GRU plant, offered his services to the UK, was a sleeper who got busted, lived well and privately for a few years whilst maintaining some form of contact with the Brits, enjoyed a spy swap and landed in Salisbury, an ideal place for an active GRU agent who travelled around and enjoyed contact with other Western intelligence services throughout Europe making him a useful information conduit.
Planning to return to Russia, word got back to his SIS handlers and faced with two suspected GRU operatives and his daughter in Salibury at the same time, no doubt to facilitate his exit, SIS, in conjunction with others, quickly improvised a plan that will never be handled in the daylight of open judicial preceedings.
Thereafter, to all intents and purposes, the Skripals disappeared. Be nice to see them turn up in court, though, and have them prove me wrong.
Trump news conference: I’m confused…this story is from September 10. Am I missing something?
Actually, the Trump news conference report is from August 8:
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2024-08-08/2024-election-trump-news-conference-harris-september-debate
“When Did the Roman Empire Fall?”
I’m calling it as 420. Rome was just a backwater city but when it was sacked, that was when everybody knew that the Roman Empire of the past was now done. After that, it was just a matter of sweeping up the fag-ends.
Sounds like you’re pegging it to the fall of the Western Roman Empire, (there was still the Eastern Byzantine empire), which makes sense.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Western_Roman_Empire
The Byzantine empire’s money was lacking in silver coinage and heavy on gold. They were aware of what went down when high tech enabled the Denarius to be made without any silver content.
hmmm. Central Bank Denarius Currency? / ;)
Crassus & Carry?
CBD.
A digital Denarius … random bits disappear or set to zero every 30 minutes. Eventually, it’s a total zero. Spend it on a pair of shoes or lose it.
Or sandals.
The Holy Sandals of Brian!
The author of the Roman Empire article is an alumnus of Queens’ College Cambridge, first founded in 1448 (it’s complicated, hence the Queens plural). So, Queens’ was founded before the Roman Empire fell in 1453!
I stan for the 1453 date. The continuity of ancient thought and culture went with the Eastern Empire, up to and throughout the adoption of Orthodoxy, while backwater Rome merely forgot the light of the East and incubated modern, financial barbarism for centuries and then launched crusades on Constantinople to attempt to re-achieve hegemony.
In 1453 it was a city that fell. All around it was for long surrounded by the Ottomans. At that time, the Ottoman capital was Edirne/Adrianopole, west of Constantinopolis, on the European landmass:
https://www.britannica.com/event/Fall-of-Constantinople-1453
Decent book that is quite easy to read is “Lost to the West: The forgotten Byzantine empire that rescued Western Civilization”. By Lars Brownworth.
I learned a lot about the 1000 years between the “fall of Rome” and 1453 when Constantinople fell.
Video: Elon unveils ‘Robovan’ and ‘Cybercab’ – CNN
“A toaster on wheels” appears to be the description popping up on the internet in more than one place.
The Robovan made me think of Elon’s underground loops for car traffic. They look like firetraps.
Toaster indeed.
I look at the Robovan and what immediately strikes me is that I can’t see clearly how I would get out. Can the exits be manually controlled? I like being able to look at an enclosed space and being able to see at least two potential ways to exit. I’m the type that will take stairs rather than an elevator unless I have bags of some sort or it’s just too high.
It’s like everything he designs has safety as the lowest priority.
Gooooooood Mooooooorning Fiatnam!
It was the best of times, it was the wurst of times watching diplomatic sausage get made.
The platoon had been named honor guard, in case politicians attempted to wrest it away.
Taibbi and Kirn last night, America This Week. Kirn has fun with Walz’s shotgun handling prowess. Taibbi has fun with the “Man Enough” ad. / ;)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzua5_Pit70
adding: the reason one holds up a pheasant kill by the neck is to show it’s a legal kill of a male pheasant. Killing the female pheasants is absolutely illegal, always.
What if they have a knife?
Say what? Ring-necked pheasants’ plumage and their head-necked cockerel male display is unmistakable.
adding: I’ve seen many times hunters pull up their guns when they realized the flushed birds were hens. Do not shoot the hen birds.
If you ask me, this is wokeness run amok. If females are good enough to serve in the military they’re certainly good enough to be peppered with shotguns.
Or a pointed stick? (Shut up!)
This video has laughs. However, there’s another possible thing to Trump could be referring to as “the enemies within”; to wit, the Deep State.
Liberals are Losing their Minds over Elon Musk – Jonathan Turley
Yes, it is noticeable how the outrage at Musk doesn’t scratch the surface of what people should be really outraged about when it comes to Musk.
I never gave a rat’s butt about what happened to the “blue checkmarks” and other BS on Twitter/X.
And the elections are a circus, so they shouldn’t mind the clown being around.
GABOR MATE : Zionism will be looked upon as one of the greatest disasters in Jewish history.
Gabor Maté always has words of great wisdom. Our hearts are breaking every day…
Not nearly as big of a disaster as it is for Palestinian history.
Thanks for this link.
I read the LA Times pretty much daily (it’s my local paper) and should probably make the point that it is not in any way a good source for unbiased or fair, or even factual, Trump information. They don’t seem to even try. I’m no particular fan of Trump, but it’s embarrassing to see a major news source take on the role of an unabashed propaganda sheet.
I know this is not terribly unusual for the US mainstream media, but it seems poor practice to supply it to NC readers without some kind of label or warning.
Quote of the day from RT: Baerbock has publicly backed Israel’s right to defend itself, but stressed in a speech last week that “international humanitarian law and Israel’s right to exist are inextricably linked.”
Thank God that Baerkbock has passed F. Scott Fitzgerald’s test of intellectual power: the conceptual ability to grasp two contradictory ideas at once. How many weaker minds lack this capacity and are forced by their obvious lack of intelligence to question Baerbock’s statement? I must admit that I simply do not have the wits to comprehend this product of Baerbock’s genius. Blessed with a mind like this, no wonder she is one of Europe’s top politicians,
Re: Antidote du jour…Down to AI animal images now?? Sad.
AI or taxidermy?