Links 10/15/2024

Subscribe to Post Comments

52 comments

1. Antifa October 15, 2024 at 6:59 am

   OUR FAVORITE THINGS
   (melody borrowed from My Favorite Things  by Julie Andrews)

   Running an empire much bigger than Britain’s
   Student protesters so fierce with their sit ins
   Laws passed by Congressmen who live like kings
   These are the gifts that the donor class brings

   Sanctioning Russia and seizing their rubles
   Buying off Senators who have no scruples
   Threatening Taiwan to bug Zhe Jinping
   These are the gifts their donations can bring

   Facts on the ground which the UN rehashes
   Blowing up Gaza with thunderous flashes
   Israel gets bombs and cash with no strings
   AIPAC bought Congress now our Congress sings!

   Israelites—break their playthings—we say ‘ironclad’
   The folks they dismember don’t mean anything—ask Istanbul or Riyadh!

   Letting the Gazans go without provisions
   Letting Israelis add ceasefire conditions
   IDF snipers who target kids’ limbs
   We say those snipers are all cherubims

   Bombing of schools while they’re chock full of pupils
   Phosphorous bombs so the damage quadruples
   Murdering journalists—head shots, not limbs
   Hiding the death count because it’s too grim

   Farms and greenhouses and orchards in ashes
   Gaza kids sleep in the sand and get rashes
   Blowing up well pumps and natural springs
   Thirst adds so much to the pain of starving

   Israelites—break their playthings—we say ‘ironclad’
   The people they slaughter don’t mean anything—ask Istanbul or Riyadh!

   Reply ↓
   1. Eclair October 15, 2024 at 9:52 am

      Antifa, the cognitive dissonance of combining the fantasy musical,The Sound of Music with the horrors that Israel is unleashing on the Palestinians (and Lebanese) is ….. brilliant. It perfectly captures the US pre-election zeitgeist.
      And, your recent contributions have been miraculous. I don’t say “Bravo!” everyday, but I think it. Thank you.

      Reply ↓
2. Terry Flynn October 15, 2024 at 7:14 am

   Re AI news. Maybe Lambert will comment on something I sent him but Cambridge University Press sent me an email (UK time morning of 15th October) telling me they have negotiated an agreement with “the AI companies” to allow scraping of books from those authors who agree.

   If I say yes, I get a certain royalty percentage. Maybe I’m stupid, but as soon as the statistical designs etc are in the public realm, why would CUP and hence me, get ANY royalties? I get GBP 80 per annum in royalties from my textbook since it is mega specialised and certain institutions like Macquarie Bank in Australia already got the key info years ago….and 80 quid is coincidentally just about enough to cover what the accountant charges me to do my annual tax return (which I can’t do manually).

   This stinks. I have 72 hours to respond. It sounds horrid, but luckily for me my two co-authors died during the pandemic so I have (I think) the only say in this. And I’m saying “hell no”. 15 years of research, experience and wisdom is not being churned out via big tech. Eff you.

   Reply ↓
   1. The Rev Kev October 15, 2024 at 7:26 am

      Did you attach an image of a big spaffing c**k to your reply to them as well? Inquiring minds wish to know. :)

      Reply ↓
      1. Terry Flynn October 15, 2024 at 7:35 am

         LOL I haven’t replied yet. Although I’d LOVE to do that again, “don’t bite the hand that feeds you”. So I’m not gonna annoy CUP.

         When the formal contract comes through I will answer it properly and make it abundantly clear that I grant NO PERMISSION to have anything from my textbook scraped by AI.

         The biggest irony is that if AI can’t even get fingers right, the chances of it properly designing and/or analysing a discrete choice experiment are zero. But I don’t want “guilt by association” when AI gets it spectacularly wrong. Analysing discrete choice data is an art, not a science. NOTHING in current statistical practice (apart from that “pseudo Nobel” of McFadden) has recognised this so I’m not putting myself in the firing line. Key people at Macquarie etc know this already and why they NEVER “show their working”. I’m not doing that either til/unless we get a system that values “showing your working”.

         Reply ↓
         1. Trees&Trunks October 15, 2024 at 9:06 am

            A non-native English speaker here, asking on behalf of equally non-native speak friend for linguistic orientation: if the joystick is spaffing: is that because it is happy or angry? It seems as if Terry wasn’t particularly enthusiastic from this proposal from Cambridge University Press.
            Maybe it would be more appropriate with a Hallmark-card wishing a rather uncomfortable auto-topological exploration with 3-4 dimensional objects?

            Reply ↓
            1. Terry Flynn October 15, 2024 at 9:35 am

               Hehe correct on all counts.

               Regarding 3-4 dimensional objects, you are more on the nose than you might think. Discrete choice modelling typically works in 8+ dimensional space. That is why it is incredibly hard/impossible for humans to “game the survey” and also why prediction is frequently wrong. Years and years of experience are often required to get a “feel” for whether you have scaled “merely” the Alps or Mount Everest.

               Reply ↓
   2. FreeMarketApologist October 15, 2024 at 9:04 am

      Re: “…so I have (I think) the only say in this…”

      Depends. Did your co-authors’ wills assign ownership of their share of the author’s rights to you, or did one of their heirs receive it? 72 hours to sort out a business decision where there are potentially multiple parties to be consulted is typical of the ignorance of the current generation of tech bros.

      Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev October 15, 2024 at 9:10 am

         Terry could always tell them that he used a Ouija board to get in contact with his former colleagues and both of them said ‘Aww, hell no!’

         Reply ↓
      2. Terry Flynn October 15, 2024 at 9:19 am

         You raise a question I hadn’t considered. I’d assumed their royalties would go to their living wives, but I might be wrong in assuming that decisions about AI scraping didn’t……after all, the laws concerning this kind of stuff did not exist when we published. Hmmm. However, I’d assume that even if one or both wives “didn’t agree” then it is moot – if one author refuses then it is veto territory and I am primary author on several applied chapters so I’d imagine CUP would have issues if they over-ruled me for whole book including the chapters I wrote but my two book co-authors didn’t…..but experience has taught me not to trust the law in these matters :(

         Reply ↓
         1. The Rev Kev October 15, 2024 at 9:29 am

            Don’t forget what the 19th century author Jerome K. Jerome had to say about British law-

            ‘If a man stopped me in the street and demanded of me my watch, I should refuse to give it to him. If he threatened to take it by force, I feel I should, though not a fighting man, do my best to protect it. If, on the other hand, he should assert his intention of trying to obtain it by means of an action in any court of law, I should take it out of my pocket and hand it to him, and think I had got off cheaply.’

            Reply ↓
            1. Terry Flynn October 15, 2024 at 9:43 am

               Yeah. I’ve gone up against the system and “won”…but winning is still losing, so I am very very leery of British and Australian justice systems.

               Always remember: a “successful whistleblower” is an oxymoron. I’ve learnt to accept things as they are, otherwise I’d go mad. But I’m not going to totally lie down against the AI juggernaut.

               Reply ↓
         2. FreeMarketApologist October 15, 2024 at 9:48 am

            Sorry for potentially complicating your life. But yes, if scraping requires all authors’ permissions, if you’re against it, then that’s that. Copyright law is absurdly complex, and CUP should be no stranger to the technicalities, which vary from country to country. At least they recognize that you (and your co-authors) are the proper rights holders, and have had the good grace to contact you. You might want to have a chat with them just to clarify who owns what and what could be done.

            Reply ↓
            1. Terry Flynn October 15, 2024 at 10:07 am

               Thanks for the info. I appreciate being made aware of the potential pitfalls.

               To be honest, given the monetary values, it is more a point of principle. But these days I’m done with “being nice” and a few words (and screenshots of emails etc) in the right ears might make waves.

               However when we on this site read all the stuff about elections, “what should be” is probably not realistic.

               Reply ↓
3. Reader Keith October 15, 2024 at 7:16 am

   “Google strikes a deal with a nuclear startup to power its AI data centers”

   Only a matter of time before Sam Altman’s nuclear side hustle strikes gold -> https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41321236/sam-altmans-oklo-jumps-on-google-nuclear-deal-whats-going-on

   Reply ↓
4. The Rev Kev October 15, 2024 at 7:18 am

   ‘Sana Saeed
   @SanaSaeed
   A whole news report on the Binyamina attack and *not* one mention that it was a military base and the 67 injured are all IDF soldiers.
   Making it seem as though Hezbollah attacked civilians is transparently an attempt to continue justifying the US-Israeli war in Lebanon.’

   Sky news didn’t do themselves any favours by describing the four IDF soldiers killed as “teenage” victims and also publishing their images while glossing over the attack on civilians-

   https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/sky-news-describes-israeli-soldiers-teenage-and-puts-gaza-deaths-quote-marks

   A Hezbollah recon unit must have identified that mess hall and when soldiers went into it for their meals so that it could be targeted. Did those soldiers think that they were safe on their base?

   Reply ↓
   1. Christopher Fay October 15, 2024 at 7:31 am

      Reading Simplicius too often I thought one lesson of the Ukraine front is any concentration is a target in the time of fast and cheap missiles rockets and drones

      Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev October 15, 2024 at 7:59 am

         Same happened in the 2006 invasion of Lebanon. The IDF had a big concentration of their troops in one area so Hezbollah hit them with a rocket or artillery and pow, there was a mass casualty event. What you say is entirely true though. Any concentration of troops is just begging to be hit.

         Reply ↓
5. Zagonostra October 15, 2024 at 7:42 am

   Israel is turning northern Gaza into a killing cage-Jeremy Scahill

   I notice Sharif Abdel Kouddous co-wrote this piece. I wonder if this is the same person who used provide periodic reports on DemocracyNow covering Egypt during Mubarak’s overthrow? The political details/machinations of Morsi coming into power is still unclear in my mind. That Egypt is controlled by the West is apparent in its lack of action as Muslim women and children are being incinerated in tents,

   Reply ↓
6. ChrisFromGA October 15, 2024 at 7:47 am

   It’s exactly three weeks until election day. Here in GA, early in-person voting started today (7AM.) I plan to vote sometime this week.

   Some electoral-related things I am wondering:

   1. What’s going to happen in all those cut-off Western NC towns that still don’t have potable water or electricity? Kind of hard for electronic voting machines to work without old Sparky. I don’t think the Post Office is going to come through, either?

   2. Remember Blinken and Biden “tirelessly working” for a Gaza ceasefire, that was “90% done” and “inside the 10 yard-line?” Just another example of how they lie, lie, lie. It’s now officially “too late” as votes are being cast, there are no talks on the horizon, and Harris is up in Michigan trying to do damage control. And yet she refuses to move policy one iota away from Biden and the neocons hidebound, unconditional support for genocide. Muslim and progressive voters, will they make a difference?

   3. Jill Stein is on the ballot here in GA. Cornel West is but there is a big asterisk next to his name saying that he was disqualified. Would I even be able to select his name, or have the machines been programmed to “gray out” his checkbox? Democracy at work!

   Reply ↓
   1. Psyched October 15, 2024 at 8:00 am

      Jill Stein voter above you here in NC. Tired of the death and tired of capitalism. I also plan to volunteer now that I have come out of a four year long bout of homelessness.

      Just watched Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, seems like GA is going to be a mess this election.

      Reply ↓
      1. ChrisFromGA October 15, 2024 at 8:52 am

         The Democrats are all up in arms about some last minute changes to require counting all the ballots in each precinct (I presume manually.) The ostensible reason is that they think some precincts will slow-walk it to try and create a chaotic scenario. I am not so sure – sounds like a common sense QA check to ensure you don’t have more votes cast than actual registered voters. No reason such a check should take weeks, maybe a few extra hours or at worst days.

         I fear both sides are trying to weaponize the procedural stuff. I’ve long advocated for a rule that no precincts can release official numbers until the entire state has reported. That would end the drama of partial vote counts indicating that one candidate has the lead, then it suddenly disappearing, creating fodder for conspiracies. If nobody knows the numbers until the final count, there is no way to “make up” the difference as the prior knowledge of the number of votes you need to manufacture is gone.

         Several down-ballot races are more interesting to me than the big one. We have a situation where the local county clerk of the Superior Court has so mismanaged the office that the chief justice had to declare a Judicial Emergency. She put in a new electronic filing system that screwed the pooch (Failed Software project – imagine that!) and everyone in her office basically quit. Lawyers couldn’t file motions, defendants weren’t given notice to appear in court, and one Judge even went to Facebook to plead for some help. TROs that were issued in domestic violence cases didn’t make it to the sheriff’s office.

         The incumbent is a Donkey and now that the County I live in has gone purple, I fear that the low-information voter will just see the “D” next to her name (along with incumbent) and re-elect her.

         Reply ↓
   2. IM Doc October 15, 2024 at 8:54 am

      I agree – and just today I got some fresh “wonderings”

      1). Kamala is now apparently angling to get on The Joe Rogan Show. Seriously, reading that all over the news. I guess Trump has already been invited. What I would tune in for is to have them both on together, but I digress. So, now, apparently out of desperation I assume, Kamala is angling to get on that show. This is the very same show and host that the Dems have repeatedly stated is a hazard to public health and medicine, that people that listen to that are going to die, who as recently as this weekend on the Sunday shows, was described as a Nazi recruiting tool, the guy who has repeatedly been called a misogynist, a racist —- it does make you go Hmmmm. It is like my Grammy used to say – Don’t listen to their mouths – watch their hands and feet.

      2) Another point of evidence for my theory that the Dems ( or at least a faction thereof) are trying to throw the election- Bill Clinton, you know the media tells us he is a master politician, literally threw Kamala down the deep dark well yesterday – “Laken Riley would not be dead if the illegal immigrants had been vetted” paraphrased. Oh yes, oh yes he did. It was the first time I know of that a DEM had even said the young woman’s name. Unlike Joe Biden, I do not get a dementia vibe from Clinton at all. What was that all about? I doubt he will be out on the trail again. But then again, he actually knows how to campaign and has the victories to prove it.

      3). Just this AM, I am told there are multiple Congressional Districts on the East Coast where Trump is now polling ahead of Harris – a complete switch from before. The most dramatic of which is in Connecticut – and the person making the comment on my TV blamed all of this on a big change among Jewish voters.

      I am not sure what to make of all this. The polls have them as still being tied. Just really strange times we live in.

      Reply ↓
      1. Screwball October 15, 2024 at 10:21 am

         RE: Rogan

         There was a clip on Twitter a few days ago of Trump talking to Rogan somewhere. Looked like a public event of some type. They were shaking hands as Trump was leaving. This was part of a series of Tweets by various people talking about Trump going on Rogan. Trump even Tweeted he thought he was going to do that.

         Best I can tell, there is no confirmation from Rogan. He has said in the past he didn’t want to interview Trump, according to what I have read. Until I see a confirmation from Rogan I won’t believe it.

         This all happened before I read anything about Harris trying to get on Rogan. And again, no confirmation from Rogan. Harris probably didn’t want to be one upped.

         If I were Rogan, I think I would pass on both of them. He has more to lose than gain IMO.

         Click to Edit – 

         

         RE: Rogan There was a clip on Twitter a few days ago of Trump talking to Rogan somewhere. Looked like a public event of some type. They were shaking hands as Trump was leaving. This was part of a series of Tweets by various people talking about Trump going on Rogan. Trump even Tweeted he thought he was going to do that. Best I can tell, there is no confirmation from Rogan. He has said in the past he didn't want to interview Trump, according to what I have read. Until I see a confirmation from Rogan I won't believe it. This all happened before I read anything about Harris trying to get on Rogan. And again, no confirmation from Rogan. Harris probably didn't want to be one upped. If I were Rogan, I think I would pass on both of them. He has more to lose than gain IMO.

         SaveCancelDelete

         Reply ↓
7. Zagonostra October 15, 2024 at 8:04 am

   >The Militarisation of Scandinavia & the Great Northern War 2.0 Glenn Diesen (Micael T)

   The militarisation and vassalisation of Scandinavia are important to challenge Russia’s access to the two other seas on Russia’s Western borders – the Baltic Sea and the Arctic

   That process of “vassalisation” covers all of Europe and extends to the sphere of influence, both economically and militarily, that the West exerts over vast areas of Latin America, the Pacific, and Africa. What people in those countries have to say about it matters not, anymore than those living within the Hegemon’s national boarders have to say about the allocation/distritbution of resources.

   This “militerisation and vassalisation” proceeds without much input from the plebs/masses. There is an ineluctable drive that feels completely outside the realm of individual agency. The cards are going to fall where they will, the poor and downtrodden will suffer what they must and justice will remain elusive, a dream invented in the minds of men.

   Reply ↓
8. Psyched October 15, 2024 at 8:04 am

   Routine dental X-rays are not backed by evidence—experts want it to stop

   Wow. I JUST went to an “acclaimed” dental school to get low cost dental care provided by the student. They gave a full panoramic x ray AND a full set of bite wing x rays.

   After COVID, and now this, I have zero trust in any medical profession anymore,

   Reply ↓
   1. Yves Smith Post authorOctober 15, 2024 at 8:23 am

      As someone with pre-fluoride era teeth and who has has a HUUGE amount of dental work, I have to disagree. Of course, the article does not explain who is in a high risk group as far as teeth are concerned.

      First, if you have had fillings, you can and do get decay UNDER them. This cannot be detected by testing the margins for softness (which = decay). By the time you get symptomatic (as in have pain) the root is in danger. So if people with susceptible teeth take this recommendation to heart, it will have the effect of replacing fillings with root canals or extractions.

      Second, when people like me (with pre-fluoride era or otherwise not so hot teeth) get decay, it moves pretty rapidly through the tooth structure.

      Even with Xrays, decay can be hidden by being in the shadow of the filling. And some teeth die without pain (you need a root canal or extraction regardless, otherwise you get an abscess which can have serious general heath bad effects). I have had routine X-rays also detect early stage of root death (the pulp and nerve start looking a bit grey in the X-ray). That could never be found in an exam. Trust me, a root canal is a better remedy for a dead/dying root than an extraction, but it you let the decay continue in a dying tooth, it will have to be extracted (there won’t be enough structure left to anchor a post to hang a crown off it).

      My dentist here wanted not to do an Xray (as in more along the lines of the current ADA recommendation for those with normal teeth). I insist on them once a year. I have had WAY WAY too many instances of serious problems occurring between one six month check up and the next.

      Reply ↓
      1. Terry Flynn October 15, 2024 at 8:44 am

         I can understand this. I grew up in a totally fluorided environment in 1970s UK. I got a few fillings due to the usual kiddie sweetie crazes etc but my teeth “thoroughly settled down” by age 18.

         I went 6 years when living outside the UK without a single trip to a dentist (because Australia and Sweden don’t consider your mouth to be important where public funding is concerned – WTF?). First checkup in 2015 upon my return to the UK, the dentist compared my last recorded (2009) NHS x-ray etc with current one along with very thorough check-up (which I thought was looking at roots and stuff beyond the x-ray though I cannot of course be sure, but she knew to look because I have sensitive teeth). She was also being thorough because family history of oral cancer. She said “the deterioration in your teeth and mouth generally over 6 years is what I routinely see in older patients between 6 monthly check-ups”.

         I’m a little concerned about issues that might be Long-COVID related but on balance I’ve decided to keep to a good dental hygeine regime and stay away from dentists – who all around here refuse masking or any anti-COVID protections when a mask can’t be used. The GP surgery has new fancy a/c systems that look rather like the ones supposed to suppress viral particles. The dental surgery is much more “awww, here’s a lollipop, that’ll be £120 please”.

         Reply ↓
      2. Bugs October 15, 2024 at 8:55 am

         And x-rays can reveal hidden bruxism, as I learned when the dentist told me that the x-rays showed I had hidden bruxism. Impacted wisdom teeth say, “hold my beer”.

         Reply ↓
      3. Neutrino October 15, 2024 at 9:24 am

         X-rays for dental and medical purposes, combined with other types of scans, can represent quite a concentration of potential or actual types of radiation over a short period. Patients may not be fully aware of which type of scan does what, beyond giving the provider some useful information. Besides being acronyms or seemingly familiar terms, what do x-rays, CT, CAT, MRI or other types of scans, using whatever potentially accumulative medium do to a person? Radioactive or not, maybe not so obvious to a patient more concerned with staying alive or treating whatever ails them at that time?

         Since dentists and doctors typically don’t interact much on the topic, I’d be interested in thoughts of how to track such issues. Are there standards beyond the ADA or other bodies for any combined or cumulative exposure by type and period? Do we chart dosages and half-lives, maybe carry around geiger counters like a friend has to for his treatment?

         Those issues could apply to many, including older patients and cancer survivors such as myself.

         Reply ↓
      4. Dermot O Connor October 15, 2024 at 9:24 am

         Before leaving the US permanently in 2021/2 I decided to get a dental checkup, first since 2010. Yeah, I know. That time it had been a 17 year gap, and there were no fillings, so I was hopeful. Anyway, one root canal, three crowns, four extractions, and 4 fillings, all was well.

         The x-ray detected a wisdom tooth had grown in at an angle, and was crushing the tooth in front of it (thanks, ‘wisdom’!). x-ray also detected other caries, etc., now maybe most of that could have been seen visually, but I don’t see how it would hurt to have that extra layer of detection.

         Incidentally, 1 year later one of the crowns malfunctioned, not physically, but that tooth just began to hurt, hitting 9 or 10 on the pain scale. Only ice cubes on the tooth were able to bring the pain down temporarily, it came in waves all night. Lucky to find a dentist here in the west of Ireland at short notice; choice was wait (!!!) 2 weeks for a root canal, or yank it. So out it came, never felt such joy at losing a tooth. He also took an x-ray, and saw nothing, could only speculate that the crown was just a bit too close to the nerve, and it was mis-firing.

         Makes me wonder about people without insurance or social health care (my extraction was only 50 euro).

         Reply ↓
         1. Terry Flynn October 15, 2024 at 10:18 am

            Your last sentence is very pertinent even to those of us who live in otherwise lauded comprehensive health care systems (UK, Australia etc). I find it totally weird that the two countries I have citizenship of have “downgraded” oral health compared to everything else.

            I was lucky enough to go 6 years not seeing a dentist in Sydney (with no adverse consequences) and when returning to UK get an “A-OK”. However, so many do not. WTF? UK NHS dentistry is a complete joke these days so may as well be ignored in comparisons. We are regressing at an alarming pace.

            Reply ↓
9. The Rev Kev October 15, 2024 at 8:19 am

   “Venezuela: María Corina Machado Hastens Collapse of Far-Right Justice First Party”

   I’m probably biased here but my reading is that you had a bunch of thieves with different aims that banded together so that they could win the election and then proceed to loot Venezuela. To make it look respectable they put this old dude as their leader – their front man so to speak – and after the election he would be pushed to the side with a bag of money to shut him up. But they lost that election, their front man shot through to the US who was probably funding them all, so now these thieves are having a falling out and are squabbling over what they can grab from the wreckage. And I don’t think what I typed is that far from the truth either.

   Reply ↓
10. The Rev Kev October 15, 2024 at 8:33 am

    “The FBI Knocked On My Door”

    Back in earlier times, Winston Churchill was talking about the differences between democracy and what life was like in Soviet Russia. So he came out with this line –

    ‘Democracy is when there is a knock at your door early in the morning – and it’s probably the milk man.’

    Simpler times.

    Reply ↓
11. PlutoniumKun October 15, 2024 at 8:37 am

    Re: Thaad deployment.

    A THAAD battery can consist of as little as 6 vehicles (3 launchers, two control vehicles and an AT-TPY2 radar system). All the individual elements can be fitted within a C17 airlifter. So theoretically a full battery could be moved in 24 hours, although in reality it would take longer, and longer still to integrate it into Israels air defense network.

    The useability of the THAAD depends entirely on the overall quality of the detection and targeting defensive system, which would include surveillance of potential Iranian launch sites. If they (i.e Israel/US) are capable of distinguishing the regular Iranian ballistic missiles (the Fateh-313) from the potentially far more accurate and lethal newer missiles with possibly hypersonic penetrators, then THAAD could be useful as part of the overall protective umbrella. The THAAD would fit into the overall layered system, focusing on the more advanced incoming targets, while the domestic shorter ranged Israeli missiles would be targeted on the less dangerous missiles. If they can’t distinguish between them, then obviously a battery will use up its missiles very quickly and be overwhelmed by a wave of incoming targets. The whole idea of the Iron Dome was that it would sweep up the less important cheaper missiles that Davids Sling and other much more expensive systems would ignore. But it looks like they are either very short on missiles now, or the system isn’t working as intended. Or possibly there are multiple layers of bluff going on, its anyones guess.

    As Yves suggests, the primary value of THAAD would seem to be as a tripwire force, which is why probably Israel won’t respond until they are in place. If the Pentagon had any sense, they would know this and would be dragging their heels over sending over a battery. If the operators of that battery had any sense, they’d immediately go on sick leave. But we seem long past the time when anyone is showing any sense.

    Reply ↓
    1. Aurelien October 15, 2024 at 9:13 am

       I think what we are seeing here is a step-change in the calculus (can you have that?) of missile defence. The original concept was defence of the US against long-range, hence ICBM attack from Iran or N Korea, defeated by mid-course interceptors using KE kills with radar cueing from sites in another continent. All the simulations and industry presentations I saw presupposed a very small number of missiles with nuclear warheads. But as we’ve seen in Ukraine, it’s now become easy to overwhelm defences with sheer numbers, and it wouldn’t surprise me to find that at least some Iranian missiles are now fitted with penetration aids for use in the terminal phase as well. In other words, the added value of the THAAD, over any sustained period, is likely to be small.

       I agree about the tripwire idea: crudely, the idea is to get US servicemen killed by Iranian missiles, so that the pressure for war with Iran will be irresistible. But I think the US know that, which is why they are probably trying to go slow at least until after the election, when it will be somebody else’s problem.

       Reply ↓
       1. PlutoniumKun October 15, 2024 at 9:59 am

          I think to be fair to the air defence planners, it was always envisaged that you’d have multiple layers of defence (as the Russians have implemented), so you can match high end interceptors to high end incoming missiles, with something cheaper and simpler to deal with the simpler missiles. But the reality seems very different, it seems the high end stuff just ate the budget of the western equivalent of the Pantsir (which seems to have been an outstanding success for the Russians).

          The Iron Dome was supposed to perform that role, along with systems like the Iris-T. But… well, defence procurement issues.

          Reply ↓
          1. The Rev Kev October 15, 2024 at 10:19 am

             Another factor that might have been in play was the assumption that western air fleets would always be able to dominate the skies and sweep away any local air forces which would enable them to bomb everything on the ground. And as a consequence they neglected to invest heavily into air defenses or EM warfare. But the US has found itself in a situation where they are up against a peer competitor with the Russians and soon the Chinese. That “doctrine” is not going to work with them anymore.

             Reply ↓
12. hemeantwell October 15, 2024 at 8:41 am

    Re the question of THAAD setup time. I can’t address that directly, but it takes about 12 hours to set up the Russian S400 system, which I’d guess is as complex as THAAD. However, after repeated encounters with Martyanov’s scorn for US weaponry, we have to be careful about assuming the S400 time can help us here.

    Reply ↓
13. The Rev Kev October 15, 2024 at 8:49 am

    ‘Yanis Varoufakis
    @yanisvaroufakis
    Israel has just won the war crime of the century prize: The IDF used chemical weapons on UN peacekeepers!’

    When this war finally ends, I think that because of what the Israelis have been doing, that they are going to have to add several more pages to the Geneva Convention – or the Geneva Checklist as the Israelis call it. What countries should be doing is calling their Ambassadors back from Israel for “consultations” for a day or two or reduce the number of staff in Israeli Embassies in each country to show them some consequences. But they won’t of course.

    Reply ↓
14. Carolinian October 15, 2024 at 8:53 am

    Re Glenn Diesen on the new “great game” of NATO versus Russia–somebody should go out and buy these gamers an Xbox. They want to relive the 19th and 20th centuries even though circumstances now are quite different with the US and UK–the primary instigators–as declining powers dependent on all those imaginary “adversaries” for the means to continue their standard of living. This the reason some of us contend that the idea of US being behind Israeli actions can’t possibly be “strategic” unless the instigators share the Zionist goals of the Israelis–themselves a throwback to settler/colonial days. Perhaps we should call our present time the century of the re-enactors as pipsqueaks like Blinken seek to become the new Churchills and Roosevelts. Time to move on.

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev October 15, 2024 at 9:07 am

       I have been thinking for some time now that a lot of Neocons must have been influenced by the novels of Tom Clancy rather than the 19th century Great Game. I mean seriously, the whole idea of “Project Ukraine” could very well have been penned by Tom Clancy in his earlier years like his 1994 novel “Debt of Honour”. So in a way we are living in a Tom Clancy world

       Reply ↓
       1. Carolinian October 15, 2024 at 9:37 am

          I think of Clancy as a figure from the reign of Ronnie, our last demented president. At least back then we still had an antiwar movement and memories of Vietnam (that memory was the thing Ronnie and his successor were trying to expunge).

          Reply ↓
       2. JohnnyGL October 15, 2024 at 9:41 am

          There was an actual interview where either Blinken or Sullivan literally cited the 1980s classic propaganda movie, “Red Dawn” in expressing his view of the situation.

          Parody becomes impossible with this crowd.

          Reply ↓
       3. AG October 15, 2024 at 9:49 am

          Totally.
          I realized only in the past 2,5 years that the entire “knowledge base” of “the West” is of the level of spy novels and in fact originates with those. After all where did the info and “insight” about RU come from mostly? Secret intelligence. And Clancy who wasn´t a spook not even in the army but an insurance guy cooked up this childish “content” and here we go. So is this seriously the level of our imperial guards? If one thinks of it it´s actually unbelievable. It´s that dumb.

          Reply ↓
    2. Carolinian October 15, 2024 at 9:33 am

       From the when did Rome fall link

       As avoidable and shocking as the sack was, 410 was far from a military or even a political catastrophe. The historian Procopius famously recounts in his History of the Wars (3.2.25–6) how, when Honorius was told that Rome had perished, he was at first deeply distraught, but soon felt relief when he was informed that his pet chicken, nicknamed Rome, was in fact still alive. The anecdote, although almost certainly apocryphal, does reveal the city of Rome’s utter strategic and political insignificance by that point.[8]So peripheral was the city to their concerns that most emperors from the mid-4th century onwards did not even bother visiting it.

       Take note, US imperialists.

       Reply ↓
15. AG October 15, 2024 at 9:11 am

    Pharma company Lilly rigs German law to increase profit expected via its “Mounjaro ” sales in Germany.
    JUNGE WELT reporting:

    “Lobby for “Lex Lilly”
    Settlement of US pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly in return for friendly medical research law? Documents indicate top priority”
    By Ralf Wurzbacher

    https://archive.is/0dpje

    “The Medical Research Act (MFG), which has now been passed by the Bundestag and Bundesrat, allows companies to keep the prices applicable to health insurance companies under wraps after it comes into force. The previous intrigues are on record. According to a memo dated September 13, 2023 from Department 117 of the Federal Ministry of Health, CEO Ricks could be informed “that the BMG is complying with Eli Lilly’s request and plans to allow confidential discounts on the manufacturer’s price as part of the MFG.” And weeks before, a ministry employee had noted that Eli Lilly was making its investment decision dependent on the promise to end price transparency. In fact, the organization “Investigative Europe” had already called for the files to be released in December 2023, but was put off for a long time. If the public had known about the indications of a “Lex Lilly” earlier, the legislation would hardly have passed so easily.”

    p.s. I remember the very decent first streamer adaptation of the Sackler case “DOPESICK” – much darker than the one done by Netflix as satire later – and there Germany is established as the bullet-proof place which had to be penetrated first as permission for Oxy was concerned. Once Germany would have agreed all of Europe would have followed…

    Reply ↓
16. lyman alpha blob October 15, 2024 at 9:30 am

    Does the Donald read NC? ;)

    Yesterday afternoon’s water cooler noted the similarity between the stereotypes in Kamala’s manly man ad and the Village People YMCA. Yesterday evening Trump cut short a rally due to people in the crowd fainting and played YMCA to wrap things up – https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4933368-donald-trump-pennsylvania-town-hall-medical-emergencies-music/

    ” “Would anybody else like to faint? Please raise your hand,” Trump quipped after the second individual was helped to their feet.

    Rather than continue with questions, he indicated that he wanted his staff to play more of his music. They obliged, playing “Time to Say Goodbye” by Andrea Bocelli and Luciano Pavarotti and “It’s A Man’s Man’s Man’s World” by James Brown.

    “We could do another question or two if you’d like,” Trump said, eliciting cheers from the crowd, before changing his mind. “How about this? We’ll play ‘YMCA,’ and we’ll go home.” “

    Reply ↓
17. AG October 15, 2024 at 9:39 am

    PATRICK LAWRENCE: De-Westernizing Ourselves

    Embarking on a process of personal, individual “de–Westernization” is absolutely essential if we propose to defend the humanity of humanity.

    This is an edited version of the second of two lectures the author gave recently on “Defending the Humanity of Humanity.” He spoke Oct. 10 at Mut zur Ethik, a twice-yearly conference held in Sirnach, near Zurich.

    https://consortiumnews.com/2024/10/14/patrick-lawrence-de-westernizing-ourselves/

    Reply ↓
18. ChrisFromGA October 15, 2024 at 9:43 am

    The “turd burger” stock of Boeing is now below $150 (and sinking.)
    Down something like 60-70% since 2019 while NVDA prints confetti money for shareholders.

    https://archive.ph/0Mm9j

    (It’s a big turd burger, shareholders, and you’re all gonna take a bite! Let it slide down your gullet, Cramer!)

    Reply ↓
19. The Rev Kev October 15, 2024 at 10:01 am

    “SITREP 10/14/24: Russia Tightens Ring on Key Region on Eve of Zelensky “Victory Plan” Unveiling”

    ‘Now it appears that the cancelled Ramstein meeting, nixed under the guise of prioritizing hurricane Milton, will not be rescheduled at all’

    Looks like the guys at The Duran called it correctly. The US is abandoning the Ukraine and are dumping the whole thing on the Europeans to deal with – and pay for. They can’t do it of course and cannot supply the ammo much less the weapons that the Ukrainians are demanding. Doesn’t matter who is voted in next month. The Uniparty has spoken. Next – Project Iran.

    Reply ↓
20. mrsyk October 15, 2024 at 10:20 am

    I see the Skripals are back in the news. I don’t suppose anything new will come from the inquiry into Dawn Sturgess’s death.

    Reply ↓