Netanyahu seems determined to lash out at any and all opponents, as if Yahweh or the US can bail him out of whatever mess results. We’ll turn first, and briefly, to Netanyahu making official his new genocidal campaign against Lebanon, and then to his open defiance of the US on Israel’s expected counterstrike on Iran.
The fact that Netanyahu is out to flatten Lebanon is no surprise; UN officials were warning that it was on its way to becoming the next Gaza weeks ago. Some of the sorry details, first from Aljazeera:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned Lebanon could face destruction “like Gaza” and claimed Israel has killed slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s “replacement, and the replacement of his replacement”….
“You have an opportunity to save Lebanon before it falls into the abyss of a long war that will lead to destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza,” Netanyahu said in his address, referring to the besieged enclave that has been under a relentless and bloody Israeli bombardment campaign for one year.
And the State Department confirmed that the Biden Administration is all in with more war crimes like collective punishment, and the extension of the Gaza genocide plan:
So the answer to your question is yes, we do support Israel launching these incursions to degrade Hizballah’s infrastructure so ultimately we can get a diplomatic resolution that allows 1701 to finally be fully implemented.
Needless to say, the assertion that Israel is attacking “Hizbollah’s infrastructure” when it destroys hospitals and apartments is an insult to intelligence.
While the US and Israel are on the same page regarding the destruction of Lebanon, they appear to be at odds over what exactly Israel will do in its planned counterattack on Iran. I do not believe that this is clever spin-doctoring to make the US look not involved. First, Israel has form. Biden and other officials repeatedly saying they would back Israel no matter what, combined with the failure to exert any meaningful curbs like withholding weapons (the one-week denial of certain heavy bombs was a lame charade), means that the Administration has made itself culpable for Israel’s actions. That is clear most of all to Muslim voters and pretty much anyone not in the mainstream media bubble. So the Administration and 12 other nations garnering front-page headline about their 21 day ceasefire scheme, only to have Israel assassinate Hassan Nasrallah, made all these leaders look like fools. There would have been reputationally much cheaper ways to try to distance the US from the assassination were that the intent.
Second, too much is being made public about the particulars of US and Israel arm-wrestling. The centerpiece is the sudden cancellation of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s trip to the Pentagon. The Financial Times had an early account:
Israel has told the US that defence minister Yoav Gallant will no longer travel to Washington this week, prompting fears the cancellation could jeopardise co-ordination with Israel over its response to Iran’s missile attack.
“We were just informed that minister Gallant will be postponing his trip to Washington, DC,” deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh said on Tuesday, hours before he was due to fly to the US.
The visit, which had been scheduled at Gallant’s request, was seen as a crucial chance for the US and Israel to discuss Israel’s planned retaliation against Iran for its ballistic missile attack last week and its expanding conflict in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Gallant to postpone his visit to Washington, said a person familiar with the matter.
The prime minister did not want Gallant to go until his cabinet votes on the country’s response to Iran’s ballistic missile strike and Netanyahu speaks with US President Joe Biden on the phone, the person said.
A call between Netanyahu and Biden has been in the works for “many days” but has not taken place, they added.
A few hours later, Axios and the Wall Street Journal, both based on one source, said the call was on for Wednesday.
Gallant reportedly talks regularly to US Defense chief LLoyd Austin and is seen as the Israeli official most responsive to Pentagon concerns. I have the impression that like the IDF generally, he has been trying to constrain the prosecution of the war, if nothing else, out of an understanding of Israel’s limitations.
Reading between the lines of the Financial Times account, it looks as if Netanyahu was trying to force a call with Biden that Biden had been trying to put off, as in really put off. That might have been a wet-noodle-lashing level attempt to tell Netanyahu he was in the doghouse. I don’t buy the Knesset vote part of the excuse for one second; that would have perilous little bearing on the strike package details that Gallant was to discuss with the Pentagon. And this bloodthirsty Knesset would approve whatever self-destructive scheme was put before them regardless.
Aside from reasserting primacy over Biden, a second reason for Netanyahu insisting on a Biden talk before Gallant went to the US would be to curb Gallant’s freedom of action. If Gallant were worried about the political leaders being unrealistic about Iran’s defenses (particularly of its nuclear operations) and Iran’s ability to retaliate, it would be logical for him to scheme work with the Pentagon to revise whatever plans he was supposed to get agreed (or at least assented to) into something less perilous.
The Wall Street Journal had more detail in U.S. Frustrated by Israel’s Reluctance to Share Iran Retaliation Plans:
Israel has so far refused to divulge to the Biden administration details of its plans to retaliate against Tehran, U.S. officials said, even as the White House is urging its closest Middle East ally not to hit Iran’s oil facilities or nuclear sites amid fears of a widening regional war.
To remind readers: Iran’s nuclear sites related to its enrichment program are buried very deeply underground. All sorts of experts have opined that the most Israel and the US could do to them, ex a nuclear attack, would be “cosmetic” damage; it’s doubtful that even a nuclear blast could do much harm. However, as far as I can tell, Iran also has one nuclear reactor which is for generating power,. I am not certain as to how far inside Iran it is and whether it is as well hardened as the other sites.
The Financial Times confirmed this established view in Can Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities by itself? The first part of the article gives a drift of the gist:
But without US support, a solo Israeli air strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be highly risky and at best only delay rather than destroy its programme, according to analysts.
Why would an Israeli operation be difficult?
The first reason is distance. It is more than a thousand miles from Israel to Iran’s main nuclear bases, and to reach them Israeli planes would have to cross the sovereign airspace of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Syria and potentially Turkey.
The next is fuel. Flying to the targets and back would take all of Israel’s aerial refuelling capability and leave little or no margin for error, according to a report by the US Congressional Research Service.
The third is Iranian air defence. The country’s main nuclear sites are heavily guarded, and the Israeli bombers would need to be protected by fighter jets.
That would require a strike package totalling about 100 aircraft, according to the CRS report — equivalent to almost a third of the Israeli air force’s 340 combat-capable aircraft
We’ll return to the Journal:
U.S. officials are frustrated that they have been repeatedly caught off guard by Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, and are seeking to head off further escalation…
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blocked Gallant from departing to the U.S. on Tuesday night as Israel continued planning its Iran operation, an Israeli official said. U.S. officials said they don’t yet have either the timing of the strike or what Israel might target….
Army Gen. Erik Kurilla, who heads U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East, traveled to Israel on Sunday where he met with Gallant and top Israeli military commanders, in part, to warn against striking Iran’s nuclear sites or oil facilities….
But U.S. officials won’t say if they have gotten assurances from Israel that Washington would be notified ahead of Israel’s expected strike on Iran…During the Washington meeting that was supposed to take place Wednesday, Gallant was expected to bring some details of the strike plan, including potential targets, U.S. officials said.
The fact that Kurilla met with Gallant and IDF officials Sunday could point to the Pentagon and the IDF were negotiating over the strike package, and Netanyahu deciding to kick that table over. It seems clear that Netanyahu is making very clear that the insanely destructive pols are in charge, not the professionals.
So why is Netanyahu insisting on talking to Biden? One can infer he either intends to make a one-way communication, like “Gallant will brief the Pentagon, but only at a high level and we may still revise our plans” or extract something, like “We won’t hit energy assets if join us in hitting XYZ other target.”
The bottom line is that Netanyahu would not be keeping the idea of an Iran attack so much in the press if he were trying to find a way out. So I would severely discount cheery takes like those of M.K. Bhadrakumar.
Given Israel’s fondness for civilian targets and humiliation, Israel may entirely avoid Iran’s military installations (which Iran has been trying to protect with Russia’s help) and strike important public infrastructure, like water purification or electricity generation or dams.
As many have pointed out, Iran’s success in repeatedly penetrating Israel air defenses plus its huge missile arsenal means it can choose how to prostrate Israel on a counterstrike. Iran has threatened to attack civilian infrastructure but I personally like the idea of completely destroying all its military airbases (Ben Gurion is also used for some military flights, so it might need to be roughed up a lot too). That would have the bonus of stopping the attacks on Lebanon.
However, if Israel really understands that (as opposed to continuing to live in the fantasy of its and the US’ superiority), that means the odds favor that it launch a nuclear attack, and not waste them on well bunkered nuclear installations but strike “decision centers.” That sort of disproportionate response would be entirely within character for them. It would best explain Netanyahu’s determination in light of the weakness of his conventional forces, even the vaunted air force, against Iran I am under the impression that Iran also has very secure bunkers for its leadership, but would all they key people actually go there? And how many critically important people (think the equivalent of senior and next level line managers) would perish?
We can only hope that the Israel is wildly overestimating the effectiveness of its conventional weapons. We’ll find out soon enough.
UPDATE: I am so dumb. I had even discussed this idea yesterday in comments apropos Iran’s possible use of its weapons-grade nuclear material.
The highest and best use for both Iran and Israel of a nuclear weapons capability is not a ground strike but an EMP. And if Israel fries Iran electronics, it destroys air defenses as well as the functioning of just about everything (save perhaps below ground equipment). So if it is going to go the nuke use route, this seems like the highest payoff.
116 comments
Comments are closed.
Netanyahu, Netanyahu… rogue is an educated or moderated adjective to apply to him. I understand why given the state of “free speech” these days. Privately, time is coming to call a spade a spade. I remember a comment by Polar Socialist on when the times it was needed to talk by codes hiding the real meanings. I had a flavour of it in Franco’s Spain though I was very young. We are now back in times like these.
rogue or providing plausible deniability? See the section Leave it to Bibi in the link below…
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/which-path-to-persia-options-for-a-new-american-strategy-toward-iran/
Yves S. : the odds favor that it launch a nuclear attack, and not waste them on well bunkered nuclear installations but strike “decision centers.” That sort of disproportionate response would be entirely within character for them.
It’s a bad old world.
One way or another this could play out as Israel’s götterdämmerung. Because another imponderable is that the Iranians will have gamed this out with the Russians — if you and I can consider it, so obviously can they — and whatever has been flown into Iran on all those big Russian air transports, besides the S-400s, has some potential to effect outcomes.
We will see. If we’re all around by this time next year, anyway.
I thought of this one myself reading the article, although I was going to flag it with a wild speculation tag. Since Yves brought it up first I guess I can skip that.
The point I was going to raise was that this might be one reason for the Netanyahu call to Biden: he might be threatening nukes, and extracting concessions from the US for not taking that step. It’s pretty clear that Israel considers itself in the driver’s seat on the escalation front, with US domestic political considerations a matter of indifference, and all evidence so far suggests it is right. This or something like it could be part of the reason why.
It sounds nuts, but it was reported a few days ago that the US is ‘compensating’ Israel for restraint on Iran (and not even total restraint, just refraining from hitting certain targets). So the ransom/blackmail dynamic is official news, and the only question is how far it extends.
You left out my caveat, which makes the part you excerpted look as if I did not qualify it. That makes my look like a hysteric. Please do not straw man me via that sort of selective quotation.
I do not believe that this is clever spin-doctoring to make the US look not involved. First, Israel has form. Biden and other officials repeatedly saying they would back Israel no matter what, combined with the failure to exert any meaningful curbs like withholding weapons (the one-week denial of certain heavy bombs was a lame charade), means that the Administration has made itself culpable for Israel’s actions
Just finished listening to Judge Napolitano’s interview with with Col. Douglas MacGregor. The Col. said:
I don’t think Mr. Netanyahu gives a damn. What anybody tells him in Washington right now because he controls everything, he controls the hill. That’s vital. So nobody from the senator the house is going to stand up and you know restrain him from doing anything. And he’s got control for all intents and purposes of most of the U.S armed forces.
We have reached a point where respectable authorities are saying that a foreign entity controls our politicians and the military and it is eminently believable. So yes, the “Administration has made itself culpable for Israel’s actions” they, U.S. politicians have suborned themselves and should, it this were a true democracy, be brought up on on charges of treason.
https://www.youtube.com/live/uxn67oGqO0U?si=-jXcbmrqtiRb6su9
Zaganostra: So yes, the “Administration… should, it this were a true democracy, be brought up on on charges of treason.
Since the US isn’t a ‘true democracy’ — and arguably never has been — this is entirely theoretical, isn’t it?
What do you mean “true democracy”? We were a republic with some democratic institutions, i.e., representative democracy which is at least a step or two beyond anything we can call true democracy. Whatever we were the ruling elites tended to care about the people and their values inside the country. Today, the “leaders” don’t care about the people, only their own careers and wealth/power they can accumulate from the upper-middle class professionals to the billionaires and their factotums–they don’t have any interest in the country. I would say, as one retired senior Pentagon official told me “nobody cares about the country anymore” and he meant in the government.
What is a republic? Whatever the rich people who control everything say it is?
“Carthage was governed by its rich men and was therefore a plutocracy. Rome was also governed by its rich men and was therefore a republic.” — Will Cuppy, 1937
Lotsa talk about how Israel is the “hand” of the US. Plus the US bases in the gulf would be pretty easy pickings if this charade isn’t kept up.. Just like the US knew in advance of the Persian strike on Israel, they sure as hell know what the plan is going to be.
“Just like the US knew in advance of the Persian strike on Israel…” One can only wonder why that bug hasn’t been fixed.
If Russia has upgraded Iran’s S-300 SAMs to S-400s in exchange for drones & munitions for use in Ukraine then even Israel’s F-35s would have trouble penetrating.
Yes, this is a second reason the US does not want the attack, that it would expose that our much-hyped systems are second rate.
But the F-35 cannot carry a bunker-buster, if that is the weapon of choice.
F-35s would be first in on SEAD duties before the F-15Es with GBU-72s.
The failed equipment in Ukraine (rumors that the Himars – 10% effective) is more evidence of a rotting civilization. Yet those manufacturers will be rewarded with more govt contracts until they get it right. Sounds like big pharma to me. A business model like this is (I’ll use the current buzz word) not ‘sustainable’.
Thanks for all your work. Invaluable to me.
But an F-16 can carry a 2000# bomb. It is loaded on the centerline of the fuselage.
This from a former US Air Force test pilot of F-16s when the F-16 first came out in the late 1970s.
It depends whether Russians are operating Russian as opposed to Export versions inside Iran – there are major differences
Anyway Russian radars scan every runway in Israel
Those Israel’s F-35s may be met with a volley of those long-range air to air missiles that the Russians have been using in the Ukraine. Quickest way to shut down that air strike would be to shoot down those air refueling planes.
This is exactly the reason why I’m skeptical Israel can pull this off. I’d assume they will have to refuel over potentially hostile airspace. Those tankers will never make it to rendevouz points.
I would warn all participants in any currently scheduled meetings to remember: 83 bunker buster bombs were used to kill Nasrallah, some slightly lower number to kill his successor. I would not assume any gathering is safe from Israeli bombs. Protect yourselves. This ‘entity’ comprised of the US and Israel does not recognize any set of laws, any understanding of ethics.
A guess: Israel hits Iran’s oil production, Iran retaliates, oil goes to $300 a barrel, Trump wins in a landslide, and gives Bibi carte blanche on “anti-terrorism” operations. No #1 oil producer in the world suffers, but China suffers more. “It’s not our fault.”
Russia knows that war with US is inevitable as does China. The only question is timing.
Netanyahu does not want Israel to outlive him.
There is no return for Israel – this is the endgame
US could limp along for a few more years or it could dive into the fray and take enormous losses. It will not leave Europe or Mid East voluntarily so it will face expulsion and suffer casualties. War gas slways been cheap for USA and profitable – it has never suffered real casualties or civilian losses like China or Russia or even Germany or Poland
This time it will
It is clear from N Carolina US cannot handle disaster and simply destroying comm networks snd electric grid would cause civil collapse. Israel losing desalination plants snd electricity will be its end
It was estimated 500 million would die in the next war – but if most are in N America it may be a feasible option for Russia to consider if Israel continues to provoke in Syria and Ukraine
Biden is going to unleash Blinken Chsos between November and January
“Operation Blinken Chaos” has a nice ring to it.
Maybe Biden will have a serious accident, like falling down a flight of stairs in the white house, or maybe a chandelier will mysteriously let loose from a ceiling and hit the bastard in his sorry, and empty, noggin, or maybe he’ll haplessly choke on a pecan nut in his ice cream cone 🍦 and the whole sh***y world that bastards like him have made will last one more sorry day.
Had a meeting with colleagues in Tel Aviv this morning and their execs had a status presentation to give; one slide was dedicated just to discussing “the current situation without the politics”. This “apolitical” view stated that things in Tel Aviv were continuing normally for the most part and everyone was safe and continuing to work without disruptions despite the last bomb sirens going off 48 hours ago. They ended their update by stating that it appeared the government was about to conclusively address the ‘terrorists surrounding [them] which prevented [them] from living their lives in peace’.
I had my video off, I could not maintain face control. They’re delusional. Unfortunately I concur with Yves’ take and I am very seriously wondering if I’ll still have a job this time next month given how quickly this could escalate.
Here is a very outside-the-box possibility:
The Israeli establishment, comprising people who unlike Netanyahu are willing to think beyond keeping themselves out of prison, actually understand Israel’s precarious position and will de-escalate in order to avoid outright catastrophe.
In other words, Israel may be ripe for a coup against an already unpopular Prime Minister before the entire country falls apart.
Netanyahu enjoys considerable public support. The Israelis that have not left are overwhelmingly on board with slaughtering Arabs (and they hope soon Persians)
Israel is made in Netanyahu’s image. He’s a sociopathic narcissist and, despite allegedly being agnostic, I am almost certain he has himself convinced that he is the promised messiah. He may have been anointed by the Lubovitcher Rebbe as such nearly 40 years ago.
Reading between the lines of the Financial Times account, it looks as if Netanyahu was trying to force a call with Biden that Biden had been trying to put off, as in really put off.
As an aside, if I were an Israeli, I would be pretty terrified that both Putin and Biden are refusing to take Netanyahu’s calls if that is indeed the case. However, I disagree with Yves and think that this is just silly kabuki theatre.
Al Jazeera: Israeli Army Radio and the Israeli newspaper Haaretz report that Yoav Gallant says Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack last week “will be deadly, precise and above all surprising. They will not understand what happened and how.”
Sounds like the way the pager terrorist attack was described by Israeli sources.
Given the implication that Israel is planning some kind of ugly asymmetric warfare option, the reports about the Biden administration being kept in the dark are pure theater, a propaganda ploy for plausible deniability.
Despite what Gallant thinks, most people who aren’t mainlining Collective West propaganda already understand what will have happened.
I had suggested in comments that Iran’s best use for a nuke (it could perhaps make 2-3 small ones) would be an EMP.
It should have occurred to me that perhaps that is what Israel plans to do, EMP then fly in planes since all air defense electronics will be fried.
Russia might then take down a Western satellite.
I will add EMP to the post as an update.
I thought I had read that Russia uses shielding to protect their electronics in the event of an EMP blast, which the US does not. I don’t have a source though. Be wild for the Israeli air force if the S-400’s still functioned despite the EMP blast.
Many Russian systems still use tubes due to the EMP threat.
EMP-hardened inverters are offered for solar systems for an extra cost. As to whether the warranty will be enforceable in case of EMP is dubious . . . . .
Thing is, using a nuclear weapon would, firstly, massively intensify global hostility to Israel and decisively bring China on board the anti-Israeli train. It would very probably be the key action to promote sanctions against Israel.
This is true in itself, but it’s also true that using a nuclear weapon for EMP purposes would not only harm military facilities — in fact, military facilities might well be less harmed than anything else because I assume that Iran is aware that the US might use nuclear weapons for this purpose and has designed its military structures accordingly. But you can’t protect things like hospitals. An EMP strike would, for instance, destroy virtually all medical equipment within range and would shut down civilian communications and power systems — oh, and things like pacemakers and insulin delivery systems. It would kill thousands of civilians.
Obviously the Israeli government would dance in circles with glee if that happened, but firstly it would be much more significant as an act than even the attack on Lebanon (has everyone forgotten that Ribbentrop was hanged at Nuremberg for launching an attack on neighbouring countries?) and secondly it would scare the pants of everyone with a brain cell, including especially the countries which Israel is supposedly trying to get on side, like Saudi Arabia.
So I doubt that it would happen, although obviously given the world’s current insanity it can’t be simply ruled out.
Did you miss that Israel targets hospitals? It did so early in Gaza and is doing so in Lebanon now.
Did you also miss that Israel is a pariah all over the world except in the US?
The story about Russian love for vacuum-tubes originate from MiG-25 (that US got hands on after it landed in Japan).
Here, an example of EMP testing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oSHREDWeNw&t=1380s
Iran and Hezbollah have been foolish to cede the initiative to Israel in this by announcing they are waiting for Israel’s next move. They consistently have underestimated the limits to which Netanyahu will go. I am fully expecting an EMP attack by Israel on Iran. What would stop Netanyahu from doing it? It’s his MO. If Iran wants to use its advantages and not allow Israel to destroy them, it needs to seize the initiative and destroy Israel’s military bases and Ben Gurion. Take a page from Netanyahu’s book and do it out of the blue and catch them by surprise, before he takes their restraint and caution and shoves it up their rear ends. Again.
I strongly agree.
What in the world is Hezbollah in particular waiting for? Still showing restraint? To what end?
I just don’t get it.
Does Iran really think that Israel’s next move will not be crippling in some respects at least? Iran are going to just sit there and allow the US and Israel as much time as they wish to plan out a response that cripples Iran at minimal cost and risk to Israel?
I do not applaud Hezbollah and Iran for their restraint. It’s their restraint that has caused this situation, and it’s their restraint that has caused the death of 1,000 Lebanese civilians. Iran and Hezbollah are acting like fools.
At this point, one has to assume that modern military equipment, including Russian and Iranian anti aircraft systems, are shielded from EMP attacks.
Civilian electrical and electronic devices will be damaged. Especially the power grid. But you can buy EMP shielded bags on Amazon to protect your home devices.
I believe 2 out of 3 of those will be true. It will be accurate only by Israeli standards. Nobody they didn’t want to kill will be killed. I hope Iran is prepared because they likely have been infiltrated at the top, which explains why Nasrallah and Haniyeh were located and killed.
The penultimate paragraph is chilling.
I thought that this would be where it has to go because the Zionists have no other weapons they can use to forestall the walls of Jericho coming down.
If Joe Biden knows this, he and his coterie deserve a fate worse than Mussolini’s.
From what I read on the socials, the American public have no idea what they’ve gotten themselves into. The naivete is off the charts.
Re bunker-buster bombs
MIC investors sure seem to be in the know about the companies that produce these boombooms.
A brief article from responsiblestatecraft.org on those numbers that keep the profit mill churning. Adding to the sorry state of affairs, NCs essay on climate change and subsequent comments remind me that inaction on the environmental crisis is an inconvenience to the neocon ilk.
So not much of a coincidence that (as Col Wilkerson stated on Dima’s interview that the US is all in on Iran) the MIC just can’t help itself since it is facing an, “…incremental acceleration in demand …(quote found in the link posted below)”.
so to those with kith-n-kin in areas affected by Helene and the upcoming event, I feel for you in light of the amazing mis-placement of monies and priorities by the US gov. looks like its tequila-round-the-clock time
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/october-7-hamas-attack/
quotes:
Lockheed Martin…at the close of trading on October 4, has produced a 54.86% percent total return
Raytheon’s total return…is 82.69%, outperforming the S&P 500 by about 46%
“Hamas has created additional demand, we have this $106bn request from the president,” said TD Cowen’s Cai von Rumohr, during General Dynamics’earnings call
The US State dept. seems to be pioneering a new kind of diplomacy:
Kill, kill, kill!
As in, if you don’t submit to our fake ceasefire terms, we’ll kill, kill, kill you!
Nasrallah is just one of the latest victims. Of course, lots of civilians also died so we could say that the US plan is that they and Israel are going to kill their way to peace.
You just made me think of The Doors song “The End.”
not so pioneering
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgpa7wEAz7I
lyrics…
https://genius.com/Dead-kennedys-kill-the-poor-lyrics
👍 Dead Kennedys can always count on my vote.
Iran’s civil nuclear reactor is at Bushehr on the Persian Gulf.
I don’t see how Israel reaches Iran. First, every intervening country will be hostile airspace because none of them wishes to be on the side of Israel and against Iran. Second, they can enforce this. They may not have S-400’s but they host US bases and they supply oil into the global market and they recycle dollars into US financial assets. Sanctioning those activities would hurt the US more than them and the sanctions don’t have to be public, they can simply tell Biden it would be a shame if something bad happened to a nice oil/bond/defence market like theirs. The US cannot preemptively sanction them and would have to endure slow degradation of its terms of empire in the ME while pretending it’s all fine. I don’t see the Blob wishing to hasten its decline so I see the US firmly forbidding hostile Israeli overflight.
I think Israel’s only option is a missile attack on Iran. And, to be strategically effective, it may have to be a nuclear attack (or possibly some terrorist spectacular involving the Kurds or Azeris or Balochistan or Mujahadeen E Kalq). But that would surrender the high ground to BRICS on Iran and the Ukraine. Nobody would consider North Korea etc to be terrorists for seeking to avoid the fate of Iran. So Israel would have to gamble on US forgiveness rather than permission.
Lets hope Bibi is all mouth and no trousers, as in Lebanon so far….
Please see my update. I may have guessed why Netanyahu is still so smug and determined.
They could use a nuke as an EMP bomb.
The problem is that nobody has ever used an EMP weapon in anger. Practically everything we know about the effects of (nuclear) EMP comes from effects observed during nuclear tests in the 1950s before the CTBT. The most famous example is the Starfish Prime test which caused electrical disruption 1500km away. But nobody really knows what would happen in reality: every physicist I ever broached the question with took a deep breath and said “it depends.” Whilst you get EMP with any nuclear explosion, which is why equipment in the Cold War was EMP-hardened, the threat then was to electronic systems outside the immediate burst area, which was quite small for the sort of tactical weapons expected to be used. What Israel would have to do is to explode a warhead high enough above the ground and accurately enough to fry electronics in Iran but not elsewhere, and also not to cause the heat and blast effects typical of nuclear weapons : otherwise you might as well just use a nuclear weapon in its classic role. I don’t know whether that’s possible, because it’s never been tried and depends on the yield of the weapon, the height, the atmospheric conditions, the terrain and a host of other factors, before you even get to the effects, which are largely a matter of speculation anyway.
As to the issue of Lebanon I strongly suspect this is a threat against the US: let us do what we want with Iran, or out of spite we’ll destroy the one marginally stable country in the region that you have spent twenty years supporting.
https://www.nytimes.com/1982/08/13/world/reagan-demands-end-to-attacks-in-a-blunt-telephone-call-to-begin.html
August 13, 1982
REAGAN DEMANDS END TO ATTACKS IN A BLUNT TELEPHONE CALL TO BEGIN
By Bernard Weinraub
Chronology of Crisis
About 6 A.M. (midnight Wednesday, New York time) – Israelis begin bombing west Beirut. As raids continue, Lebanon’s Prime Minister, Shafik al-Wazzan, tells Philip C. Habib, the special American envoy, that the talks cannot continue.
2 P.M. (8 A.M., New York time) – The Israeli Cabinet meets. A message from President Reagan arrives, expressing ”outrage” and, reportedly threatening to halt the Habib mission. The Cabinet decides to end the raids and order new ones only if they are ”essential.”
4 P.M. (10 A.M., New York time) – President Reagan tries for hour to call Mr. Begin but cannot get through.
4:50 P.M. (10:50 A.M., New York time) – King Fahd of Saudi Arabia calls Mr. Reagan.
5 P.M. (11 A.M., New York time) – A new cease-fire goes into effect in west Beirut.
5:10 P.M. (11:10 A.M., New York time) – Mr. Reagan reaches Mr. Begin for 10-minute telephone call.
5:40 P.M. (11:40 A.M., New York time) – Mr. Begin calls President Reagan to say that a ”complete cease-fire” had been ordered….
An EMP is an interesting idea but I am with Aurelien, it’s entirely unproven as an attack.
If the Israeli’s aren’t simply playing to the gallery and/or psyching out Iran (their standard m.o.), the warning sounds like another asymmetric response. On one level, we should not speculate, it only encourages them!
However… If it’s not simply taking out power or water or comms networks with rockets, nuclear or otherwise, what could it be? Biological of chemical weapons (I don’t think Israel is a signatory to the conventions against them). Shutting the straits of Hormuz with mini submarines or using special missiles to mine them? Activating some sort of kill switch in key infrastructure that they have smuggled in over time (Stuxnet, Hezbollah pagers)? Taking out a weak node in Iran’s defences (for example, how many rocket propellant factories do they have)?
Or do the Israelis have a “Rod of God”, a kinetic weapon to drop from a satellite, to assassinate senior figures?
I am still betting they are all kippah and no heifer.
I don’t think an EMP would have to work with any exactitude to suit the Israelis. For instance, it would not matter if they fried all vulnerable electronics in Tehran or all over Iran. So they would have enormous degrees of freedom if they were to try this experiment. They would just need to be assured of adequate damage in a high population/high value area. That would be enough to cripple the country. More would be gravy.
I have a BA in physics, and spent a lot of time doing military missile simulations, and my understanding is that the effects of an EMP are difficult to predict, as others here have said. If Israel tried it they could not guarantee it would affect only Iran for example, it could also destroy electronics in Turkey, Pakistan, Iraq, Turkmenistan, and Saudi Arabia. The effects are not necessarily linear, and are affected by things like mountains and lines of sight. Effects in the EU would not be out of the question. The only ones who have experimented extensively with EMP’s are the Russians, and they probably have not shared the data with Israel, and Israel has not done tests themselves for obvious reasons. A nuke used for an EMP is still a nuke also, it will still create a lot of fallout, and fallout drifts with the wind. Anyone that uses a nuke, EMP or not, risks making a lot of other nearby countries really angry. A small nuke to take out the center of a city seems to make more sense than an EMP at higher altitude, in terms of collateral damage. However, a small nuke of any kind, even multiples of them, would not end Iran’s ability to strike back, they must have learned from Hamas and Hezbollah (and the US and Russia and China) and have long range missiles stored underground. And given Iran has a nuclear reactor, they would have little trouble creating dirty bombs filled with radioisotopes which could be launched on those missiles. It would make no difference if Israel shot them down, that would just spread the radiation further. It would be somewhat ironic if the land that is considered so holy became radioactive so that no one could live or visit there.
Think how sneaky and difficult the pager supply chain attack was, prepared very early.
I bet that the nukes are already in Iran, whether for EMP or to take out strategic personnel or locations. Yes, sounds ridiculous and almost impossible, but so was the pager deal. Also, Israeli spyfare is first class, so if anyone could do it…
I’m thinking more along the lines of a cyber attack that wipes out Iran’s banking system, or crashes utilities like power, water, sewage, etc.
But it seems IDF really likes to kill non-combatants so maybe the above is too non-violent and sensible.
Israel has submarines that can launch cruise missiles, and one with vertical launch capability that could presumably fire ballistic missiles. That would be a surprise.
Well, about that update, which indeed is a possibility, I think Russia should state openly that any Western country that uses any nuke for EMP will cause Russian retaliation in the form of EMP nukes over USA and Western Europe. After all, I’ve recently seen a report showing that just 3 nukes would basically fry electronics over the bulk of contiguous US. Heck, if it were to me, I’ll even add the promise of a genuine nuclear annihilation for the culprit’s capital (in this case, since Israel insists, Jerusalem and all the crazies, Knesseet, government and administration, and not Tel Aviv).
No need for Putin to single out Israel over Iran, of course. I suppose they’re smart enough to know which side they’re a part of.
Bonus point being that Netanyahu is crazy enough not to give a fuck if NYC and London get blacked out and could go on with such a plan even if threatened.
Should Irán wait for It, or as Putin said prior to the SMO: If you know you will have to fight, go ahead and get in the first blow:
My thought too. Israel and Iran have played tit-for-tat twice now. Iran’s last tat seems to have had some effect and shaken Israel but now it’s apparently sitting back just listening to Israel’s fuming promises of another tit retaliation and waiting for it – in short playing by the ‘rules’. But Israel has shown itself no respecter of any rules and, especially if talk is turning to the use of nuclear weapons, I’d suggest the great majority of the world that doesn’t have its nose buried in that incoherent jumble of bronze-age fairy-tales and fantasy known as the Bible wouldn’t blame Iran in the slightest if it got in first with another tat that brought the whole wretched game to an end.
You don’t launch a devastating strike against a nuclear power unless forced to. You don’t want the Israelis to be given an excuse to turn Tehran into a ruin. All this talk about how foolish Iran is to be so gentle with the Israelis is absurd.
That was General Van Riper’s winning tactic as Red Force in the Millenium Challenge war game against an invading naval force: fire everything at once, before the enemy attacks. He sank an aircraft carrier and many other large vessels. At that point the game was stopped, so we don’t know what would have happened next.
The question is, does Israel have a preemptive capability that would prevent any Iranian response?
Just listened to Ritter and Martyanov with Galand Nixon. Ritter opined that Iran has the capability to end Israel as a going concern in about 30 minutes via delivery of thousands of hypersonic missiles. He explained their capability at some length. Their missiles are spread out in complexes across the country and organized to operate fully independently.
Without any evidence, I suspect that Iran has shielded these sites from EMP attacks.
I don’t know how to distinguish capability from miscalculation from suicidal nihilism.
I think these Russia S400 have hyped too much, Syria show that Russia is not ready to use them against Israel. Russia have freely allow Israel to bomb Syria. Hate or love USA they at least protect their ally more with arms delivery, Ukraine is good example USA don’t play games when they are arming ally in war
Well. All those expensive toys sent to Ukraine have not done much of a job of protecting any actual Ukrainians, except maybe Zelensky who seems off-limits for some odd reason.
Perhaps they keep the “good stuff” to protect the US embassy and diplomatic facilities for foreign politicians to do grandstanding tours.
Yea. Ukraine is a perfect example that being an ally of USA is fatal. No games there. Only death and destruction.
EMP attacks are one of those things like look less and less attractive the more you ponder the details, especially if your enemy is wary and competent.
Short version: The effects, aside from devastating the civilian economy, are unpredictable, but said devastation invites nuclear-level retaliation.
Having written that I’m now thinking it might be an argument for why the Israelis will do it.
Exactly–Israelis, remember, do not recognize international norms (and never have) nor do they believe that morality exists other than for their own people’s benefit. You can torture “them” but not “us.”
Yves,
Brilliant analysis. Especially about the use of an EMP. (Minimal or none direct death, no instagram friendly mushroom cloud, but substantial and lethal paralysis of the other country infrastructure).
Functionally and essentially, the Israel is at war with the Axis of Resistance. Killing and wounding thousands in Lebanon and assasination of leaders anywhere and everywhere is indisputable evidence. With Netanyahoo crazy rant, they need to be aware of Israel planning another 1967 war…
The Axis of Resistance must plan accordingly.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/09/opinion/gaza-doctor-interviews.html
October 9, 2024
65 Doctors, Nurses and Paramedics: What We Saw in Gaza
By Feroze Sidhwa
I worked as a trauma surgeon in Gaza from March 25 to April 8. I’ve volunteered in Ukraine and Haiti, and I grew up in Flint, Mich. I’ve seen violence and worked in conflict zones. But of the many things that stood out about working in a hospital in Gaza, one got to me: Nearly every day I was there, I saw a new young child who had been shot in the head or the chest, virtually all of whom went on to die. Thirteen in total.
At the time, I assumed this had to be the work of a particularly sadistic soldier located nearby. But after returning home, I met an emergency medicine physician who had worked in a different hospital in Gaza two months before me. “I couldn’t believe the number of kids I saw shot in the head,” I told him. To my surprise, he responded: “Yeah, me, too. Every single day.” …
Again, this is a form of fascism/Nazism when you add torture to all that what do you get? What you get is the true face of the Washington regime. Israel does not exist without Washington so these nice people you see walking around Washington are the equivalent, in my view, to Nazis. Something like the ovens seems to be on the horizon and even lampshades made out of the skins of Palestinian children seem possible now. I get the Israeli culture for what it is–they are deeply, deeply, hateful culture but what of our own culture? Are we better?
Because Israel and most Israelis lack any kind of morality beyond their own tribe using a nuclear weapon in the region is more likely than not. Washington, which only views morality in the same way except it’s not tribal but class-based, will go along with Israel using a nuclear bomb or many of them. Interestingly this puts several other countries on the spot. Will Russia tolerate such an attack? Will China? Will Pakistan despite its spectacular level of corruption, mainly from Western intel agencies who partly run the place?
Israel has clearly returned the world of Nazi morality–will Americans care? Probably not and, for different reasons, the Europeans won’t care either even if there are mass killings (they’ve been going on for a year now) or the use of nuclear weapons, as long as their “news” organizations continue to be run by Western intel (CIA etc., MI6, and the Mossad).
My vague, gut reaction is that the “success” Israel had in Gaza has really gone to Netanyahu’s head. It’s easy to have a “successful” military campaign when your opponents are mostly kids and other civilians, taking on functioning state with a sizeable standing military is another thing entirely. I agree about this easily turning into Israel’s Gotterdammerung. They may have already crossed the Rubicon at this point too. Iran’s previous too attacks on Israel look like warning shots to me. I think whatever their inevitable response to Israel’s response will be for real. Like, if they get the sense that Israel is coming for them and have the time to react why wouldn’t they just go for broke and launch every last thing they had towards Tel Aviv? If they’re going to get destroyed anyway, they have every motivation to do as much damage as possible on the way down.
And I think the only reason Israel and Netanyahu can ignore this very obvious possibility is that they’ve let getting exactly what they wanted in Gaza go to their heads. God help us all.
His statement sounds an awful lot like a declaration of intent to bomb Beirut to rubble. Hard to imagine other countries or Hezbollah standing by and allowing that to happen. I think we also have to take that threat seriously, given Israel’s actions in Gaza.
The whole “successor’s successor” thing is infantile. Does he think Hezbollah has a limited supply of leaders or something? Leaders in dynamic situations are mostly just regular people who rise to the occasion. Organizations like Hamas or Hezbollah are often cell structured and resistant to decapitation strikes anyway. He’s living in a fantasy world.
I really really really hope you are correct that Netanyahu’s swaggering is a function of his megalomania, as opposed to Israel having a pager cubed move up its sleeve. The issue is it was Gallant, not Netanyahu, who made the “They won’t know what hit them” remark.
Countries come and go. Israel is an interloper in a region which did not want it, and Israel’s only ambitions are to expand at the expense of the descendants of those who occupied those territories for millenia, many of them descendants of Jews who converted to Christianity or Islam, just as many of the Zionists are descendents of converts who have grounded their ideology on a millenarian doctrine fashioned by Scottish and English Calvinists prior to the English Civil War.
Israel has now become so poisonous, barbaric and murderous that it is unreasonable to assume it is any part of the civilised world, however loosely defined, and that it can ever become so. Perhaps the only remedy for this cancer is for the Iranians to ignore their religious scruples, to demand an eye for an eye in justice, exercise their strength with the support of theitr allies, and to deal with the Israelis as they have chosen to deal with the Palestinians and the Lebanese and their other victims. thereby confirming that now is the time Israel must go.
Is the Biden administration composed of psychopaths or is it that they have lived so long in the DC Bubble and Echo Chamber that they are deaf to any voices from outside or are they so arrogant, so convinced, that only they know what is right that all others are contemptuously dismissed? Are they ignorant? Perhaps stupid? Are they determined to drag the nation into Bibi’s war to satisfy some personal agenda? Tis a puzzlement and one I should like to see resolved by removing these clowns, these malevolent clowns, and try another batch. They could not be much worse and might be an improvement. But how could that be as we have an incoming president who will support Israel and bring along yet another set of malevolent clowns. Doesn’t matter if it is her or him. They differ only in that each has a personal brand of incompetence. Of course, we could have such a tangle of an election that we reach 20 January 2025 with no candidate certified. Am I correct that whoever is Speaker of the House would become the acting president? But would the House have managed to elect a Speaker or would it be involved in the petty vendettas, party infighting that was so unedifying last year? The times are interesting, distressing, and verge on terrifying as the collection
of grifters, fools, nitwits, and incompetents who manage to get a seat on the gravy train blunder from crisis to crisis wrapped in their illusions of power and statesmanship.
Or perhaps, hear me out, but perhaps the people at the top of the power structures of our government have been seduced by people like Epstein and there were videos to prove it. 0f course there are other ways of blackmail and extortion.
Would this be a good time to bring up sortition as a way of determining leadership of a polity? I have to think if it was just an average Joe/Jane who got jury dutied into making the important decisions, surely they could not be worse than what is currently on offer.
It’s the psychopaths one, in my judgement.
Several weeks ago I provided the title of the Israel Shahak book exposing the true meaning of the Zio-Jewish religion. Some one could not find the book offered for sale and I couldn’t get the link to load from my phone in reply.
Here is the link:
Jewish History Jewish Religion
The Weight of Three Thousand Years
foreword by Gore Vidal
Israel Shahak
ia.803105.us.archive.org
This book pretty much lays out what these barbaric bastards are up to and that they really are crazy enough to use nuclear weapons.
I have called both of my Likud senators Schmuck Traitor Schumer and Kristin Gullibrand to voice opposition to continued aid to the ZioNazis. Schmuck’s office couldn’t of cared less.
It has apparently been removed from the Internet Archive – which was under attack yesterday by a group called Black Meta, probably just the usual IOF stooges. https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/9/24266419/internet-archive-ddos-attack-pop-up-message
Here’s a working link (pdf) https://yplus.ps/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Shahak-Israel-Jewish-History-Jewish-Religion-The-Weight-of-Three-Thousand-Years.pdf
Starting to look like Bibi is one of Biden’s October surprises.
Lucky us.
Trump a few days ago reportedly said the first thing to do was to take out Iran’s nuclear capacity.
Even the reactor could lead to a Chernobl. Which way does the wind blow?
He has a history with Israel and in dealing with Iran. Even his facial expression in recent months is markedly pugilistic.
Balanced considered, informed opinion does not seem to be his strong suit.
God help America.
I’m sure India and Pakistan and China will be ok with a little fallout in the interests of the dying Anglo Saxon empire.
Oh wait no, they’ll go mental
Atomic war cannot be won. Everybody dies. Recommend everyone read the book “Nuclear War: A Scenario” An eye opening read.
Both terrific and terrifying.
Currently the only nation provoking one is USA.
Read the background – or watch YouTube on Andrei Gromyko the Soviet Foreign Minister who formed the institution that produced Lavrov.
He lost his entire family in WW2 as a Belarussian and was obsessional about avoiding nuclear war – yet the US even as early as 1946 was thinking about how to unleash one and targeting Soviet and even East German cities……
The casual way people write “nuke them” as if they are in some half-baked TV show is at variance with how they squeal when life deals them a dud hand.
If Israel continues expect to see N Korea consider what might happen to Seoul or Tokyo
Thanks Yves, I really appreciate these posts.
Questions that my mind keeps mulling:
1. Will Israel use nukes?
2. How would Iran respond to a serious but not existential non-nuke attack?
3. How far does Russia’s support of Iran go? Hard to see them becoming a more active participant leading to a full WW3 scenario. Iran may be an important ally, but Putin’s aim is the protection of Russia.
4. How much sway does the “let’s attack Iran” neocon faction hold compared to the “realist” faction inside the US government?
5. How much more/less likely would a Trump administration be to back/participate in a full war in Iran?
6. How much will whatever comes next tank the world economy and thus my life and livelihood?
I have no answers for any of these. I’m skeptical of anyone that thinks they have firm answers. We’re in a very volatile moment. I continue to pray for peace and sanity.
To some degree I have to think that israel is fine with just murdering all the babies in it’s immediate proximity and no one seems to be stopping them from that goal.
Goodbye Lebanon, buy gaza golf course futures…
I often come away from movies with an alternative interpretation, and woody allen did “crimes and misdemeanors” which I felt was about it’s not a crime if you can justify it to yourself and family, just a misdemeanor…
Israel writ large.
Who’s going to stop them seems to be nobody.
…and to the point about having my own weird interpretations
The collective west is unquestionably goliath…
who’s david?
With respect to your fourth question, here’s how it appears to me: whatever ideology, however consistent or inconsistent, foreign policy Intellectuals espouse, it is in substantial part a justification to get them near power, no matter how they themselves think of it or how sincerely they believe it. I went through a fascination with the neocons and their intellectual archeology; Leo Strauss and his esotericism having influence on the operation of State policy seemed so outlandish and absurd. So, too, did the reports of Bush II alluding to biblical prophecy in the direction of the GWoT. Neocon, Liberal interventionist, realist, wilsonian: these are all names for imperialists, practically speaking. A belief is only useful to analyze insofar as it motivates action (I’ve been reading William James on religion), and the actions of all these people run along the same, predictable imperial logic.
That realists like Meirshiemer and Walt have taken a dissident view of late I believe reflects more their demotion after running afoul of actual interests in their work on the Israel lobby. Those we might call realists are in the pentagon, doing the math, because they have practical tasks and have to see if they can be accomplished. They are more pragmatists than ideologues of any stripe, I’d guess.
In terms of personnel, remember that Blinken runs State, Nuland, my namesake, was just in there, and Biden’s whole worldview was written by Robert Kagan in 2019, in the Washington Post: https://archive.ph/E7vlA
As I see it, the ‘let’s attack Iran’ faction is the entire foreign policy establishment since 1979, in practical terms. From Kennan to Acheson to Kissinger to the Bush people to our current crop, they preside over an empire whose reach they wish to maintain and extend.
Kennedy was prepared to wage nuclear war over a few Alpha missiles in scuba it is said – though I doubt it
Yet you assume attacking a major ally of Russia and China would not invite the retaliation against Israel‘s sponsor !
Russia and China built their nuclear weapons as plant pots no doubt because no one would want to destroy good old sweet USA on its psychotic journey to world end
Maybe your news is not as comprehensive as elsewhere. Iran stated categorically it would destroy Israeli infrastructure which I take to mean – electricity, de-salination plants, water systems, airports, telephones, internet, roads, railway, ports, refineries, satellites –
I think that might prove inconvenient
To those saying Israel cannot reach Iran by air, there’s also Israel’s nuclear armed Dolphin subs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin-class_submarine
If Israel nukes or EMP’s Iran I think the Iranians would be more likely to survive than the other way around. One is highly dependent on tech infrastructure, the other much less so. A benefit of sanctions, perhaps?
It may have escaped your notice but launching missiles from torpedo tubes still requires overfly rights
This is over my pay grade, but who exactly will stop Israel? They have already gone well into the “We follow no rules” terrain. So how one stops them matters, as whether it actually is very likely that a flyover state would enforce its control of its airspace aggressively.
For instance, what if Israel were to overfly Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait (this may not be practical from other perspectives, just an example). Jordan would not shoot down an Israeli plane. The overflight area in Saudi Arabia is way away from population centers so I wonder if they would be beyond the reach of systems like the Patriot, and the Saudis would have to deploy planes to interfere. Does the Saudi air force have practical independence from the US? Same question re Kuwait.
In other words, can we rule out Israel defying states and effectively daring them to shoot down their planes? They are that nuts. Well, Netanyahu is that nuts. Not sure about the IDF but the IDF is supposed to be subordinate to the political leadership.
Israeli subs regularly gain access to the Red Sea and Arabian Sea via the Suez Canal. So they can launch from right up against Irans shores if needed. Its not clear how many cruise missiles the Dolphin class can launch, but its likely at least 6 each (there are 6 subs in total, although probably only 2 at sea at any one time).
Its also quite possible that Israel has some cruise missile launchers on civilian cargo vessels. Nobody knows the range of the Israeli cruise missiles, but its claimed they have a range up to 1500km. This makes Tehran targetable from Israel, the Med and the Arabian Sea. Its extremely difficult to intercept cruise missiles if they are coming from unexpected directions and if you don’t know the launch sites.
The problem for Israel is not hitting any part of Iran. The problem is one of scale. Iran is very big and its military and civilian infrastructure generally is very extensive (although somewhat unwisely, they do have a few large and vulnerable energy concentrations). To really hurt Iran would take many hundreds (probably thousands) of very high precision and very large warheads. Its doubtful if Israel has the capacity to do that.
It is said they use a modified Rafael/Raytheon AGM-142 or ‘Popeye’ rocket and have boosted range from 350km to 1500km.
To respond to Yves’ question. I believe those “We follow no rules” approaches are not unparalleled in history. They end in tragedy. That Russian saying ” Slow to mount, fast to ride” comes to mind…….Both USSR and Britain KNEW they would have to fight Germany……..each gave ground to prepare — Britain at Munich in 1938…….USSR in Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact……..both had been re-arming since 1935………both became allies in July 1941…….having conceded ground 1938-41
It was similarly clear after failure of Haldane Mission to Germany in Feb 1912
https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/kaiser-wilhelm-ii/doomed-to-failure-the-haldane-mission-1912/EF0C59E33514ABB500681AF7FA845507
war was inevitable.
I believe Russia and China are readying themselves for war with USA which has used Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel as cat’s paw to provoke and draw out.
The only question is whether US will fight for Netanyahu.
The only kid on the block with a major problem is USA………..this war will end forever US hegemony and relevance to the wider world. In WW2 UK lost 0.94% population and US lost 0.32% – both these countries had minor losses compared to China or USSR or Poland or Germany – Yugoslavia lost more than US + UK combined.
The question is whether this is Armageddon for USA…………Netanyahu does not give a damn.
So actually preventing Israeli rockets crossing sovereign airspace is not relevant – maybe Russian AD systems or SU-57s destroy them…….or maybe Iranians die……..but if Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey and the entire Middle East erupt and seek revenge – what can US actually do other than destroy all life on the planet including Americans ?
For a year we have listened to Biden/harris/spokespeople say bla bla bla.
Only to have Biden /harris support Israel.
In reading all this it’s back to the same sort of discussion, ie is Biden/harris really pushing back or just faking it?
I could read the latest that it’s all been approved and there is no reason for anyone to visit Biden/harris in person.
And the reason I say that is Biden/harris have said they totally support Israel in Lebanon, Gaza and that Iran needs to be punished.
Harris said in her 60 minutes interview that Iran is the major threat to the US.
After the next Jewish holiday I expect bombs will fly.
I don’t know if this has been presented on this site. It’s one of my favorite podcasts. This one is extremely powerful and made me cry. It helps me to be strong in my convictions.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dN1wIzFzcfc
faking.
Your comment about the EMP brought this to my mind:
The Russian supplied weapons to Iran are probably EMP hardened as part of their military design.
And yes, I suspect Iran has thought of this and planned for it. Their missiles would likely be protected from EMP so a nasty reply to such an attack is to be expected.
If Israel resorted to an EMP attack on Iran, it would also have to do the same to Lebanon in the hope that it would screw with Hezbollah’s missiles. But however you word it, it would be Israel using nukes. I will say that again. It would be Israel using nukes.
That being the case, it would require a maximum response by Iran and Hezbollah so maybe they will decide to return the compliment – by de-electrifying Israel. Hit their power plants, electrical grid, gas supplies – the lot. Since Israel is using a bronze-age mentality, do the same for their economy.
I read a report earlier that Netanyahu is starting to get paranoid and is seeing enemies everywhere and that is a major reason why he cancelled Gallant’s trip to Washington. He is even seeing enemies in his inner circle, much less members of his own government.
Don’t know if that’s true or not, but if it is that sounds very similar to what was happening in a certain bunker in Berlin in April-May 1945.
Gallant and Netanyahu are not on good terms. That is so well known that it was even in the Wall Street Journal article I linked to.
Someone who assassinated people would be afraid of assassination, if nothing else, by virtue of projection.
It seems to be in progress also in Bankova Street, Kyiv. In
Yermak’sZelenky’s office.There’s that saying about playing stupid games and winning stupid prices.
Or rather was attempted by a certain von Stauffenberg at a certain meeting, well before ” bunker-time”.
High altitude nuclear explosion over southern Lebanon to create EMP would fry a lot of Israel’s civilian infrastructure. We are dealing with small countries here. A lower altitude one, would cause radiation and shockwave induced destruction on the ground.
Do you genuinely believe that the Israeli government cares what happens to the Israeli people?
In principle, I don’t believe any government genuinely cares what happens to their people. They genuinely care about staying in power.
In case of Israel, despite mad dog behavior of Netanyahu, IDF has enough of competent people to avoid a giant friendly fire incident. At least until the nukes start flying both ways…
Israel/the US will always go with the most evil option provided they can escape the consequences. A nuclear first strike on Teheran is a gamble they might be willing to take.
It is the US who is waging this war.
Israel is a small country with a small army and a very small economy. It is simply impossible for it to wage a war against Gaza, let alone against Lebanon or Iran.
The US is dragged into this war by Israeli lobby serving the political shortsightedness of the leaders of Israel against the US interests.
All what is going on in Middle East is just an additional evidence of the total bankruptcy of the US political system. All this can only end in disaster for the US. If not urgently addressed it would lead to chaos and civil war in the US as more and more americains are against this absurdity. That is what is at stake here.
Russia cannot stand by in this conflict as they risk losing big. Destroying Lebanon has displaced over a million people. Most of them will probably go to Syria, where the largest Lebanese diaspora already lives. Syria is already on precarious ground and Russia is not thwarting any Israeli attacks on Damascus and other Syrian targets. A huge influx of refugees along with more Israeli destruction risk toppling the Syrian state. Russia will then lose its Syrian base which will destabilize Putin at home. Add to that more Ukrainian terrorist attacks and Russia might fall.
Israel has a lot of friends in Iran in the highest places. Rafsanjani is (or was) one, I think he partly owned the Eilat – Ashkelon pipeline for pumping Iranian oil through. Do Americans even know it has bought plenty of Iranian oil via Israel? They should do Marc Rich was involved.
Anyway, they’ll have planted some nuclear device or devices god knows where. Unfortunately for all in the west and Israel, Irans dead man’s switch involves destroying all oil production in the region, including or especially Azerbaijan. Using some of there thousands of missiles they’ve got buried all over there country.
Like Mike Tyson said, everyone has a plan until they get smacked in the face.
A new thought. Let’s take Israel at face value, that they will attack Iran and Iran won’t understand how it happened. Well, how?
Clearly not by air bombing. No surprise there. And not missiles either, since Israel lacks hypersonics.
Could it be by sea? I wondered about Israel’s submarines but that’s just missiles. To surprise Iran, they would need to launch an underwater drone. Would Israel send a nuclear underwater drone, to blow up oil infrastructure or Bushehr? Maybe – but this still relies on making attack while they are expecting one.
However, the post above about Israel having prepositioned the weapon and Yves’s comment about cargo vessel missile launchers has given me an idea. If I were Israel, I would hide a nuke inside a ship, either a cargo vessel trading from Dubai or an oil tanker. Iran cannot scan / tear apart all the ships calling at its ports and a ship could get right next to major oil infrastructure or the Bushehr nuclear reactor.
It seems fantastical but, if Israel does pull off a surprise attack, my money is on a prepositioned nuke secreted on a cargo vessel of some sort.
I often wondered how many Klub-K systems were already in warehouses across USA…….
Israel can threaten Iran but it is the old Able Archer 1983 problem when USSR prepared launch on perceived threat from NATO exercise and one man paused to check defaulting launch of ICBMs – the matter terrified Reagan
Iran will launch and destroy Qatar snd U.S. bases and Israel and Straits of Hormuz. Then Russia and China will hold US accountable
There is no outcome where US survives intact