The US Tries to Pressure Türkiye into Putting Its Russian Missile Systems Under American Supervision

One of the biggest sticking points in the long-running feud between Washington and the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğanin in Türkiye is the latter’s purchase of Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems back in 2017. Washington is now proposing that Türkiye move the Russian systems to the US-controlled sector of Incirlik Air Base, in south-central Türkiye.

Türkiye had been asking Washington for Patriot missile systems with technology transfer for years prior to the S-400 purchase, and the US kicked Türkiye out of the F-35 program and for the first time slapped sanctions on a NATO member.

The S-400 is widely considered superior to the Patriot, and it would no doubt be beneficial for the US to get its hands on it — especially as the systems are reportedly being deployed in Iran to guard against potential attacks from Israel and the West.

While Türkiye tested out the S-400 system, it still isn’t operational. In December, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Güler told reporters it would only be utilized if and when needed — an odd use for the weaponry that cost Ankara $2.5 billion.

The news of the S-400 talks between the US and Türkiye first appeared in the Greek newspaper of record, Kathimerini, and its chief source was Michael Rubin. If you’re not familiar with Rubin, he was once the “pudgy-faced boy wonder” of neocon villains running the Iraq debacle notorious for his thin skin and stupidity. While he’s grown older, he’s none the wiser and can most recently be found daydreaming about Israel assassinating Erdoğan and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Therefore, I initially took the Kathimerini report with a large grain of salt. It has, however, since been confirmed by other outlets. Recently, during an interview with Anadolu Agency, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the following:

“We are considering creative formulas and solutions. Ultimately, the president’s final direction will be decisive, but we are closely following the political dimension. At least both sides agree that this issue has become a stumbling block in bilateral relations.”

The fact that Russia recently felt the need to issue a reminder to Türkiye about contractual obligations of the S-400 deal likely means there’s some real momentum behind the Washington-Ankara talks. Here are some more details about the US proposal and motivations by both sides. From Kathimerini:

Türkiye would avoid an about-face, which from its perspective would equate to international embarrassment, while not break the terms of, or violate any possible binding clauses in, its contract with Russia.

Despite the complexity of the issue, it seems that both sides now wish the relevant discussions to reach a successful conclusion, as this would solve a major problem for Washington and NATO and allow Ankara to return to the F-35 fighter jet program.

Despite all the reported issues with the F-35 program (and there are plenty), Türkiye is reportedly eager to return to it due to the oft-reported fear that its air force will be outclassed by that of Greece, which remains in the F-35 program.

The bigger problem for Türkiye, however, might be how its burgeoning defense industry is being held back by US sanctions. A resolution to the S-400 issue and a return to the F-35 program would also mean a lifting of the sanctions.

The Turkish Response

It has so far been a no, although Ankara has not completely closed the door as evidenced by Fidan’s statement above. Other ideas have been kicked around.

Turkish businessman and former Minister of State responsible for state-owned banks Cavit Çağlar, who is close to Russia, has in the past suggested selling the systems to another country with Moscow’s blessing like India or Pakistan.

“I would remove the S-400s from Türkiye if I were in charge,” the former minister told the Turkish-language newspaper T24. “Our plan was to either acquire additional systems or produce them domestically. We need to find a way out. We have good relations with Russia; the best course of action is to negotiate and explain that, as a NATO member, we cannot use the S-400s against NATO. We need to address this issue promptly.”

Another Turkish proposal is to just keep the S-400 in the box. According to Turkish sources, Ankara is pitching the permanent warehousing of the system with procedures for the US to continuously “verify” their disuse. That would mean Türkiye paid Russia $2.5 billion for some large dusty boxes, but it’s not enough for the Americans who are apparently determined to get their hands on the S-400 at Incirlik.

For some, such as the hawkish Foundation for Defense of Democracies, not even that is enough and they are instead proposing the following:

…Biden should insist that Ankara provide one battery of S-400s to the United States. Türkiye should additionally donate its remaining S-400 inventory to the Ukrainian military to help with Kyiv’s ongoing war effort against Russia. A resolution to the S-400 impasse along these lines would demonstrate Ankara’s commitment to its NATO allies and allow the United States to study an important instrument of an adversary’s defensive capabilities.

Türkiye is yet to back down on that demand, which sounds more than reasonable from the Turkish side, but it’s hard to ever rule out Erdogan’s ability to surprise.

The Russian Response

Russia has been patient with Erdogan’s unpredictability in the past, but this might represent a step too far. Here’s what Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a news conference following at the 79th session of the UN General Assembly:

“The arms contracts contain the end-user certificate paragraph,” he recalled. “In order to do something else with the products that are delivered under such a certificate, which mentions the country that has received these weapons as the end user, the consent of the country that sold these weapons is needed.”

The US is of course trying to exploit a potential loophole in that contract by having the systems remain on Turkish territory at Incirlik. However the lawyers would sort it out, it could mean that the US has access to one of Russia’s more potent defense weapons. I’m not a military hardware guy, but here’s Military Watch explaining how this would be a blow to Russia:

Russia relies very heavily on the S-400 and other ground based air defences to compensate for the small size of its fighter fleet relative to NATO’s and its lack of a large fifth generation fighter fleet to counter NATO’s fleet of F-35s. A compromising of the system to the country’s Western adversaries could thus have highly detrimental implications for Russian security…the S-400 remains Russia’s foremost air defence system and is expected to form the backbone of its air defence network for well over a decade to come.

And not just Russian security. China, Belarus, and India also have S-400 systems, and Russia has deployed them in Syria and is in the process of doing so in Iran. Lavrov added with typical Russian subtleness that “Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is an experienced statesman. He makes decisions on any issue in the interests of his people and his country.”

Indeed, Türkiye has benefitted from its improved ties with Russia in recent years. While Ankara is eager to overcome US sanctions hurting its procurement of hard and software for its growing defense industry exports (more on that below), it also needs cheap and reliable energy. That’s where Russia comes in. It supplies Türkiye with nearly half of its natural gas and a quarter of its oil. The two nations also cooperate on nuclear energy with Russia financing and building the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, which allowed Türkiye to join its long-sought-after place in the club of nuclear power nations, and the two countries are in talks to construct another.

On an individual country basis (excluding the EU as a whole which remains far and away Türkiye’s largest trading partner) Türkiye receives its most imports from Russia, and for Turkish exports Russia is eighth.

BRICS, Sanctions, and Greece

Türkiye is also on the short list to join BRICS, potentially as soon as at the Oct. 22-24 summit in Kazan, and is desperate for more investment from China, which it is slowly receiving. There is also smoke about Türkiye moving closer to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is evolving into a security guarantor for the Eurasian continent against Western efforts to divide and destabilize.

Dr. Hasan Ünal, professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Maltepe University in Istanbul, writes that all that progress would be thrown out the window should Erdogan go through with the American proposal for the S-400. With all the F-35 problems, its exorbitant price tag, and in light of the pagers and radios attack against Hezbollah calling into question the wisdom of purchasing tech or weapons from the West, Ünal calls it a “gift from God” that Türkiye was kicked out of the F-35 program.

Nonetheless, there seems to be a real fear in Türkiye that its air force is being surpassed by Greece’s. The US has been doing its part to ratchet up tensions between the two countries over disputed islands, territorial waters, and Cyprus.

Washington has abandoned its largely neutral stance on Türkiye’s relationship with both Greece and Cyprus and is ramping up military aid to Greece, turning a port near the Turkish border into a naval base, and sending weaponry to Cyprus after ending a decades-old ban on arms sales.

Despite the Biden administration’s agreement in January to sell Türkiye F-16s in return for Erdogan lifting his objections to Sweden joining NATO, Ankara’s air force is composed of aging F-16s, F4s, and F5s. Meanwhile, in January Greece signed a $8.6 billion deal for up to 40 F-35s. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who was educated in the US at Harvard, Stanford, and then Harvard Business School for an MBA before going on to work for Chase Bank in London, McKinsey & Company, and getting a 2003 nomination from the World Economic Forum as a global leader of tomorrow, justified the hefty price tag as Greeks deal with endless austerity by explaining that the US will send frigates, C-130 transport aircraft, armored tanks, and vehicles at no extra charge.

Türkiye has kicked around substituting the fifth generation F-35 with the Russian 4.5th generation SU-35 or a 4th generation European fighter jet like the Typhoon or Rafale, but neither ever gained much traction.

Ankara is progressing on its own fifth-generation fighter, KAAN, but doesn’t expect to have them ready before 2030, and that could be overly optimistic as the KAAN still needs to be fitted with a domestically-produced engine and is being slowed down by Türkiye’s reliance on several foreign-made components for high-tech systems. According to Nordic Monitor, “At the forefront of countries posing difficulties in Turkey’s procurement is Germany, which has been withholding export permits for firms supplying Turkey with much-needed engines and power systems for its domestic projects.” Here’s the International Institute for Strategic Studies:

With development led by TAI, Turkiye has sought foreign partners, notably for aircraft design and local engine production. Following talks with a number of foreign partners, TAI contracted BAE Systems for aircraft design in 2017. Finding a partner for local engine production has proven more difficult; talks with Rolls-Royce, through a joint venture with Kale Group, have seemingly led nowhere. Instead, the MMU, now called Kaan, will be initially powered by US firm GE Aerospace’s F110 engine, previously assembled by Turkish Engine Industries (TEI) for the F-16, while Turkiye explores options. However, as China and Russia have found, developing next-generation aircraft engines is no easy feat. There is no guarantee that a purely indigenous effort will be successful, and it is highly likely to be hugely expensive. Turkiye may need to revisit a foreign partnership to ensure the Kaan project meets its ambitions.

So likely more than the F-35 or tensions with Greece and Cyprus, the biggest issue for Türkiye is likely the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act which continues to be wielded against Türkiye in response to the S-400 purchase. Türkiye’s growing defense industry is being kneecapped by the sanctions, which hurt particular imports like semiconductors and microchips. On September 19, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said plainly “Our goal is to exit CAATSA because our Defense Industry Presidency is currently subject to CAATSA.”

Türkiye increasingly produces high-quality, cost-effective defense equipment (especially drones) with 2023 being a record year. The August issue of Defense News listed five Turkish companies in the 100 top defense companies of the world, but it’s struggling to move into higher end weaponry due the sanctions and embargoes by Western nations. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is increasingly relying on Türkiye for shells to keep up with demand from America’s proxy wars. A Turkish company, General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, even had to be brought in to build three 155mm projectile metal parts lines in Texas due to US struggles.

Erdogan reminded the US of this at the UN meeting, telling reporters that it would be impossible for Ankara and Washington to achieve their long-term cooperative trade and security goals if the United States does not abandon “additional tariffs in the iron, steel, and aluminum sectors, probes and the CAATSA sanctions.”

While Washington no doubt appreciates the help on the 155mm shells and the Turkish drone exports to Ukraine, it always wants more, and this time it’s advanced Russian technology on a platter.

Türkiye’s transactional relationship with both West and East is valuable for the country, which can extract concessions from both sides. Moreover, it fits with how Turkish elites under Erdogan view the country as much more than a bit player in a bloc. It is a regional power and aspires to be more, yet it’s struggling to find a path there with the US standing in the way.

Considering the bridges Turkiye would burn with Russia and potentially others like China by handing over the S-400 to the US, one would have to believe that the US is offering more than just sanctions relief and F-35s  — and again there’s no indication that Turkey will agree to the US proposal. Bu what else could be going on behind the scenes? With Washington having essentially taken control of Armenia it could offer Turkiye’s coveted corridor to Azerbaijan (the best time to do so would be with Iran preoccupied). And with Israel (with US backing) looking to “remake” the Middle East, there are plenty of possibilities to tempt Erdogan with there if he’s again dreaming of glory in Syria. Moscow is now warning that the US and UK are planning to use Ukraine to unleash a chemical weapons false flag provocation in Syria. So it might be game on there again. Or who knows, maybe Mossad and the CIA managed to pack every cell phone in Turkiye with explosives.

Given all the unknowns, I’d still wager against Türkiye turning over the S-400 to the US at Incirlik. It seems a step too far even for Erdogan, but I’ve also learned it’s never wise to underestimate the US and Israel’s penchant for chaos, nor is it smart to bet on what Erdogan is going to do.

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36 comments

  1. WillD

    Well, the Russians undoubtedly have a remote kill switch, perhaps even a self-destruct, built into the S-400 which they could activate if Erdoğan betrays them.

    1. timbers

      Hopefully too, Russia has a backup plan like precision missile strikes to destroy Turkey’s S400 inventory, should it come to that.

      1. The Infamous Oregon Lawhobbit

        Soooo…..direct Russian attack on a NATO nation?

        Something something Article 5 something Zelensky HappyDance on YouTube…..

    2. ilsm

      Foreign sales equipment has “protections from tamper”.

      Aside from trying to copy ICs most S400 performance has been observed in Ukraine theater.

      US contractors would like to copy……

  2. Jake Dee

    I doubt it.
    Such a backdoor/trojan could be discovered by the enemy and used against you in a spectacular fashion. Having a trusted man stationed next to the weapon to hit a self destruct switch is one thing but having it done by some technical remote control is far too risky.
    However it is a firm rule of the game to never give your allies your very best kit, for several very good reasons, one of them being situations exactly like this one.

    1. Paul Greenwood

      Russian Export models differ from Russian-use models.

      Why do you think Turks operate those missiles ?

      1. ciroc

        The poor performance of the so-called “monkey model” T-72 damaged the reputation of the Soviet weapon and greatly reduced its demand. As a reflection of this, it is now said that there is no difference in performance between the models intended for the Russian military and those for export.

        1. Polar Socialist

          The poor performance T-72s used by Iraqi forces were made in Czechoslovakia, not Soviet Union.

          Anyway, the radars that come with the export version of S-400 are supposed to be less capable on many parameters than the domestic ones. Missiles are the same. And of course, for domestic use the capability to link with other systems is the true performance multiplier.

          I’m sure Russia won’t be happy if Turkiye allows US to access the systems, but they must have taken that as a given when selling the system to a NATO country. S-400 is, after all, mostly an improved S-300 (which are everywhere already), and just a copy of the users manual will allow Raytheon engineers to deduce how it functions and it’s capabilities.

          Most of the ways S-400 operates are very similar to Patriot system, just implemented much smarter. And with greater performance envelope. And networking.

        2. Paul Greenwood

          Then again Abrams and Leopard have not impressed in Ukraine and they are not monkey models

  3. The Rev Kev

    Erdogan is smart but not so smart as he thinks. Sometimes he tries to play things too smart and ends up causing trouble for Turkiye. But there are two things that he is going to have to think over. For whatever reason, he had his forces ambush and shoot down a Russian plane years ago which led to Russia putting all sorts of sanctions on Turkiye until Erdogan had to go beg for forgiveness. If Erdogan hands over those S-400s to the US, this would be much worse and he can kiss any chance of Turkiye joining the BRICS goodbye as Russia will veto it. China won’t help as they use Russian gear too and this would compromise their security as well. Essentially Turkiye would be locked out the the east for what exactly? Biden’s gratitude? Who soon won’t even be the President?

    Another factor is that Biden could very easily renege on any promises to Erdogan. Erdogan betrayed the Russians by handing back the Azov detainees to the Ukraine in return for promises by Biden but within days Biden reneged on all those promises and Erdogan got nothing out of the whole deal except the ire of the Russians. But more to the point, any promises that he gets from the US admin become null and void come Inauguration Day next January. Everything gets reset and agreements can easily be fobbed off. Still, you never know what Erdogan will do as he is like other leaders like Netanyahu who will wreck their countries for personal political gains.

  4. Paul Greenwood

    USAF trained the Turkish Air Force officers who staged a coup against Erdogan.
    Erdogan survived only because he was warned by Moscow.

    Erdogan resolved to have AD systems of his own under his own personal control so he bought Russian.

    Why on earth would he ‘suicide himself’ by giving US the keys to his security ?

  5. Revenant

    “If you’re not familiar with Rubin, he was once the “pudgy-faced boy wonder” of neocon villains running the Iraq debacle and is notorious for his thin skin and stupidity. While he’s grown older, he’s none the wiser and can most recently be found daydreaming about Israel assassinating Erdoğan and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei”

    Come on, Conor, tell us what you really think! :-)

  6. ciroc

    The situation was created by Russia’s stupidity in selling advanced weapons to NATO members. It is like the USA supplying F-35s to Armenia, a member of the CSTO.

    1. Yves Smith

      Polar Socialist says there is nothing about the S-400s that the US does not already know. Russia is pursuing the objective of prying Turkiye away from the US and NATO, a very very big prize.

      1. ISL

        True, it would be surprising if the US had not managed through espionage to acquire S-400 designs (export) (the S550 probably not yet), and yet, as with hypersonics, reverse engineering does not include the manufacturing capability to produce, including metallurgical know-how and innumerable process tricks of the trade.

        Somehow the US still cannot even successfully launch (much less fly) hypersonic missiles after years and years of trying. And still remains unable to even significantly increase low tech 155 mm shell production.

        1. AG

          re: DARK EAGLE tests and Germany

          Since you mention it –

          In Germany they are circulating this piece on hypersonics which has appeared in a German military magazine but was written by a US guy, Sidney E. Dean from Virginia.

          “Hypersonic weapons: US military catches up”
          https://archive.is/8Qt7P

          Which is decent. Or lets say it could even be worse on RU and CHINA.

          However, re: Germany 2026 – it only mentions the DoD statement on the June 28th test, which I had heard virtually nothing about in particular.

          And the more important results of the postponed test of the genuine “Dark Eagle” end of July have been kept completely under wraps. And are not even referred to by Dean either.

          Which makes me believe, as you say, its not working.

          Which would be good news and concure with NATOs Kerstin Huber´s statement that NATO wont have hypersonics for another 20 years.

          Yet in Germany of all countries they do not talk/know about these caveats.

          They still are talking about that nothingburger of a WH statement re: 2026.
          Instead of expressing doubts like e.g. here:

          “Hypersonic Weapon Just Tested In Florida, Results Unclear
          Vague details about a recently “initiated” test comes after the Army scrubbed three planned hypersonic missile launches last year.”

          https://archive.is/SCH5b

          On the June 28th test:

          “(…)
          In June, the Pentagon did announced a successful test of a common hypersonic missile designed to be used in both the Army’s Dark Eagle and the Navy’s sea-based Intermediate Range Conventional Prompt Strike (IRCPS) weapon systems. To date, there has been no known full end-to-end test of the missile involving a production-representative launch system.
          (…)”

          However that very DoD statement is pure air:
          https://archive.is/LYurl

          Same piece on the July test:
          “(…)We have no additional details or information [about the test] to provide at this time,” the statement added.(…)”

          None of this adds up.

          This is important but apparently I am the only German human being thinking and researching this issue.

          The Americans are spreading lies. But them being American everybody swollows it.
          Even the science people apparenty.

          Anything here that I am missing?

          Because this IS important. It would be naive to think 2025 election can seriously reverse the decision. But then what? So I gotta STAY naive.

          from the above article by Dean (google-translated) which is mostly bla-bla:

          “(…)
          LRHW

          The US Army’s ground-based long-range hypersonic weapon is likely to be the first US hypersonic weapon to enter service. The vehicle-based long-range hypersonic weapon, known as the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), is twelve meters long and has a range of 2,800 kilometers. Each carrier vehicle carries two missiles; each battery has four carrier vehicles and a command vehicle. The battery is deployed by wide-body aircraft. The first operational battery was set up in Washington state in 2022 and equipped with carrier vehicles and command systems to practice handling the new weapon system. Flight testing of the prototypes began in 2022.
          Originally, the prototypes from pre-series production were to be delivered to this battery at the end of 2023 in order to establish provisional operational readiness. However, the required final tests of the weapon system failed for technical reasons. On June 28, 2024, a successful launch of the entire hypersonic weapon system was carried out in cooperation with the US Navy. Further tests are to follow. If these are successful, the weapon system could be put into service in spring 2025. A total of five LRHW batteries are to be set up and aligned for use in different geographical regions. They will be integrated into the Multi-Domain Task Force (MDTF) units.

          (…)”

        2. Polar Socialist

          I know you didn’t mean this as a comparison, but I must point out that hypersonics and radar technology are sort of apples and oranges.

          Radar tech is well understood, and advances are in general made in packing more and more transmit/receive modules in smaller and smaller space (as with everything, cooling becomes a big issues quite fast), more precise steering of the beam, better controlled side lobes and probably most importantly improving the signal processing for better resolution and jamming resistance. There are all well understood areas of research.

          Hypersonic regime, on the other hand, is named thus because the airflow physics change when objects transfer from supersonic to hypersonic. All of a sudden you have multiple new problems in every dimension: the missile materials themselves start to behave differently, the engines have to be designed completely differently due to air compression, the inlets and outlets need to be different, even the fuel has to be different because of the speed the air travels trough the engine. And so on and on.

          The first one advances in small improvements here and there, the latter by huge leaps everywhere at the same time.

    2. Joker

      Every shmuck in the west have always been smarter than the whole of Russia. That’s why Russia is in tatters, and the West is in bloom.

  7. Guy Liston

    I suspect Erdogan is doing the ‘Joe Biden’ dance at this point in his life. As for the S-400s, I would guess Russia is ready to blow the things to smithereens at the first real sign of a typical E Dog betrayal; proabably use the Kinzhals. E Dog might regret he hadn’t used the best possible defense he had against that but instead left it sitting in a warehouse, Mike Liston

  8. AG

    Who says those F-35s work in combat under EW stress?
    Their avionics apparently is terrible. Their stealth might not work properly. Engine fails.
    All of course only minor for a fighter plane.

    May be just take those S-400 gift boxes and ship back to RU.
    Turkey and NATO?
    I always wondered…

    Great piece btw

    1. Joker

      Countries don’t buy F-35 because it works as intended, but because they have no choice. Same goes for Patriot.

      1. AG

        Yes. I know. Which makes the blunder even more insane.
        I just wanted to remind of the technical deficiencies which are incrdible.

        See the cost madness e.g. here:
        “F-35: $2T in ‘generational wealth’ the military had no right to spend”
        https://responsiblestatecraft.org/f-35-most-expensive/

        p.s. I remember my first POGO report which I read early 2022. It was already devastating.
        I dont understand why parliamentary groups which are not all corrupt do not use this info.
        Papers regardless of their compromised status should love such material…

    2. Paul Greenwood

      F-35 had Rolls-Royce as alternate engine until U.K. signed contract then US dropped it and it was GE solus

      Yet B-52 needs Rolls-Royce engines apparently

  9. Mikel

    “Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who was educated in the US at Harvard, Stanford, and then Harvard Business School for an MBA before going on to work for Chase Bank in London, McKinsey & Company, and getting a 2003 nomination from the World Economic Forum as a global leader of tomorrow.”

    Ah…American and Western influence.

    Those kinds of resumes are what’s going to keep the world in “meet the new boss, same as the old boss” mode.

  10. An Observer

    This is the problem with trying to sit on too many chairs at once. This strategy only works if it is time limited with definite goals to achieve. Erdogan has been playing this game just to play the game and get maximum benefit from every side. In the end he will be forced to make a decision and it risks being the wrong one.

    He wants to be a leader in the Arab and Muslim world. He also wants to be part of Europe. At the same time he is leaning towards the East. All the while his currency is falling and his economy seems to always be at the brink of a recession. There is no logical end to anything he’s doing. It is clear to everyone where the future of Turkey lies (with the East) but he’s a hot air producing machine who cannot be counted on for anything.

    In other words, when the moment comes to make a decision if he makes the wrong decision Turkey will get f*cked.

  11. ISL

    Minor quibble with two words in this statement: “Türkiye increasingly produces high-quality, cost-effective defense equipment (especially drones) with 2023 being a record year.”

    This clearly is more marketing than substance wrt quality, at least where Turkish defense equipment goes against Russia and Russian-supported military – the drones were useless in Urkaine. Now against NATO (or a depleted Isreal with its useless Iron Dome) perhaps they will be effective.

    Otherwise a great summary.

  12. Altandmain

    Türkiye is already growing more skeptical of its relationship with the Western world. I suspect that if the US pushes harder and harder, the US might permanently alienate itself from the Turkish people.

    This is a big deal, as Türkiye has either the strongest or second strongest ground military after the US in NATO. Türkiye is also in a critical geographical location with its control of the Bosphorus Strait and being between Europe / the Middle East. It’s also why when the Turkish government refused to fight Russia, any talk of any NATO intervention in Russia was simply not going to happen.

    Losing the Turkish people could be one of the biggest mistakes that the West makes, along with provoking the Russians / Chinese into a conflict.

    This pressuring the Turks to turn over their S-400s could play a role in losing the Turkish people for good. I suspect that I know why – the US may need Russian air defense because the Russian air defenses have done really well in Ukraine. They may want to study it for weak points or even reverse engineer it. As the article notes, US Patriot has performed very poorly.

    One question I do have is if this is another neocon fantasy. The Greeks have always tried to portray the Turks in the most negative light possible, as the 2 nations are historical rivals. Indeed, as the article notes, have a big grain of salt with all of this. Michael Rubin, like most neocons, has a very militaristic point of view that is very much a “US as hegemony” point of view.

    I think that the Turks know that they are going to end up aligning with the Russia / China / BRICS bloc. They are going to try to extract as many concessions with both sides though, before that happens.

    1. Paul Greenwood

      You do realise Greece was occupied by the Ottomans for 400 years until it fought to liberate itself in 1821 ?

      You know about the Chanak Crisis 1922 when Britain prepared to go to war with Turkey ?

      You are aware of Smyrna where someone like Aristotle Onassis was born until ethnically cleansed by Turkey and how Greece lost that isthmus to Turkey ?

      I mean it is not unreasonable for Greeks to loathe Turkey

      1. Altandmain

        That’s beside the point. Yes I’m aware of the Ottoman Empire and its occupation of Greece. I’m not saying the Greeks don’t have justification for their historical resentment of the Turks nor that the Turkish government is an angel today. In particular, I’d like them to cut off Israeli oil supplies.

        That doesn’t mean that I am going to believe the Greek media and a neocon, Michael Rubin, without question. Rubin is the source in the article. The article is focused on the S-400 and the neocon, not the relations of Greeks and Turks today, nor historical reasons why they may dislike each other.

  13. Aragorn

    Minor nitpick – you say

    A Turkish company, General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, even had to be brought in to build three 155mm projectile metal parts lines in Texas due to US struggles.

    but in the linked article it says

    In late February, the Pentagon announced it had contracted General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems to build three 155mm projectile metal parts lines in Texas, with Turkish subcontractors participating.

    It would be good to clarify that GDOT (an American company) is subcontracting with Turkish companies rather than implying GDOT IS a Turkish Company. Hope this is helpful.

  14. MFB

    Why would the Americans be sending arms to Greek Cyprus unless they were for use against Turkish Cyprus? (I suppose at a stretch they might be aimed against Lebanon.) I can’t see Turkey (I’ll call it Turkye when everyone starts calling the country between Belarus and the Bering Strait Rossiya) appreciating either of those options.

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