By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, Fountain Creek–S Circle Dr to S Academy Blvd, El Paso, Colorado, United States. With barking dog. At least I think that’s not “mockery.”
In Case You Might Miss…
- Deploy the Blame Cannons!
- First head rolls at Boeing, breakup rumors.
- Angus Deaon on economics and economists.
- Sentinel intelligence.
I don’t know if this is “helping” per se, but it’s certainly sweet:
his parents got him a stuffed-animal version of one of his drawings, too iconic😭🥹 pic.twitter.com/2NBT4t3Gft
— 𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗻𝘆🫧💚 (@beyoncegarden) November 9, 2024
Also, the creativity is going child → tech, not tech → child. As it should.
My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Trump Transition
“House Fast-Tracks Bill That Would Give Trump Power to Target Nonprofits” [Rolling Stone]. “The House is set to vote this week on a bill that would grant the Treasury Department authority to revoke tax-exempt status from any nonprofit it declares to be a ‘terrorist-supporting organization,’ giving the agency broad latitude to determine what that means. The legislation, the Stop Terror-Financing and Tax Penalties on American Hostages Act (H.R. 9495), was originally drafted to prevent the IRS from issuing fines and tax penalties to Americans held hostage by international terrorist groups as well as citizens unjustly incarcerated abroad. By putting these two measures together under one bill, Republicans are trying to make it more difficult to oppose. ‘They attached it to a super popular bill that everyone likes because they want to make it hard for people to vote ‘no,” Kia Hamadanchy, senior policy counsel at the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), told The Intercept. ‘The reality is that if they really wanted the hostage thing to become law, they’d pass that by itself.’ Hamadanchy said that this bill is ‘about stifling dissent and to chill advocacy, because people are going to avoid certain things and take certain positions in order to avoid this designation.’ The bill would allow the Treasury secretary to notify targeted nonprofits that their tax-exempt status is at risk, giving the organization 90 days to appeal before losing its 501(c)(3) status. The vague language in the bill could be used against nonprofits that support Palestinian rights, reproductive rights, and environmental protections.” • When I finally discovered that NGOs were the entity responsible for placing migrants in, e.g., Springfield, OH, and that the process was entirely opaque, it became obvious to me that the NGOs were riding for a fall (just like the NGOs in, say, Georgia), being as they are a vast and unelected part — if blobby entities can be said to have parts — of the Democrat Party (where they also serve as an enormous sink to suck down energy and personnel from the (a) left, properly conceived. And it would sure be nice the Republicans didn’t act like Democrats and amp up the “terrorism” foofra. Just write and pass the bill on its own merits.
2024 Post Mortem
“Harris fundraising page says a portion of donations will be directed to recount effort” [USA Today]. “A portion of donations made to the Harris Victory Fund, a joint fundraising committee authorized by the Harris campaign, the Democratic National Committee and state Democratic parties, will be directed towards a recount effort, according to its fundraising page. It doesn’t include additional details on when the recount effort will take place and who will lead the effort. Harris officially conceded the race to Trump in a speech she gave at Howard University the day after Election Day, saying that the nation must accept the election results.” • So was Kamala lying?
“Former Harris aide calls for Biden to resign so she can be president briefly” [The Hill]. Oh. And: “‘We are out of touch with the crisis of meaning/purpose fueling MAGA,’ Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said Sunday in a thread on the social platform X. ‘We refuse to pick big fights. Our tent is too small.'” • So, has Murphy challenged Schumer yet? No?
* * * “How Francis Fukuyama and “The Big Lebowski” Explain Trump’s Victory” [David Masciotra, Washington Monthly]. “The voice that speaks for America belongs to one of the nihilists who threatens to castrate The Dude, the Jeff Bridges character in The Big Lebowsk [(ITBL)]. After confronting the Dude who is taking a bath, the three nihilists inform him that if he doesn’t pay the money that they believe they’re owed, they ‘will come back and cut off your Johnson.’ ‘You think we are kidding,’ one of the men adds, ‘We are nihilists. We believe in nothing.’ Donald Trump’s resounding victory over Kamala Harris is the triumph of nihilism. It confronts those who still honor liberal democracy, multiculturalism, pluralism, and a ‘nation of laws’ with the grim possibility that many Americans believe in nothing.” • To quote Walter Sobchak from TBL: “Nihilists! Fuck me. I mean, say what you want about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it’s an ethos.” Or, to update for the Biden Administration: “I mean, say what you want about the tenets of Liberal Democrats, Dude, at least genocide is an ethos.” Later on, Masciotra yammers on about a Trumpian Death Cult. Well, if Gazan genocide, the Ukrainian meatgrinder, and 700,000+ deaths from Covid don’t look like a Death Cult to Masciotra, I don’t know how to help him,
“What Does It Mean That Donald Trump Is a Fascist?” [Timothy Snyder, The New Yorker]. Snyder is a Central and Eastern European professor at Yale. You’ve got to read this because it’s, well, unhinged (and if you want to read a historian, read Richard Evans, and not this fool). I can’t even summarize it, it’s so diffuse and poorly reasoned. Sample sentence: “When the Soviets called their enemies ‘fascists,’ they turned the word into a meaningless insult.” • So wait. Last I checked, Stalin was a “Soviet.” Is Snyder really saying that when Stalin called Hitler a “fascist” — on the way to winning World War II, I might add — that was a “meaningless insult”?
“Why Does No One Understand the Real Reason Trump Won?” [Michael Tomasky, The New Republic]. “I haven’t even gotten to the economy, about which there is so much to say. Yes—inflation is real. But the Biden economy has been great in many ways. The U.S. economy, wrote The Economist in mid-October, is ‘the envy of the world.’ But in the right-wing media, the horror stories were relentless.” • Commentary:
Interviewed thousands of folks across Pennsylvania as well as North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan & Wisconsin. Working suburban & rural voters. Across-the-board it was inflation. Many times they knew exactly how much something had gone up from food to gas to car/home insurance. https://t.co/YcEfjZ3Oep
— ZitoSalena (@ZitoSalena) November 11, 2024
“One striking pattern hidden in the election results” [VOX]. “But when you zoom in on the details of that result, there’s a striking pattern: Democratic Senate candidates are outperforming Harris. Or, put another way, Republican Senate candidates are doing worse than Trump…. My suspicion is that Harris’s electoral struggles were more about Biden’s unpopularity and her association with his administration than any newfound love of the American public for the Republican Party generally. (This is also reflected in the House of Representatives contest currently looking somewhat close and in Democratic success at the state level in places like North Carolina.) Call them the ‘I don’t like Republicans much, but the economy was better under Trump’ voters. Biden lost them, and Harris failed to get them back.” • Note that control of the House is not yet decided.
“The U.S. Can Take a Tough Election” [Peggy Noonan]. “I close with my immediate hope, that the outcome of the election, however close, is also clear. That the battleground states won’t be won with 0.008 margins but a few points this direction or that. I hope whoever wins the presidency, at least one house of Congress is of the other party. A Democratic House or Senate will tamp down Trumpian excitements and hem in enthusiasms. A Republican House or Senate will be a coolant on Democratic attempts at court packing or doing away with the filibuster. You say this is a recipe for ‘nothing gets done.’ Those three words are, occasionally, balm to the conservative soul. A situation in which neither Matt Gaetz nor AOC can destabilize anything isn’t a bad situation. But also, no: Divided government will mean anything that gets done will involve winning over the opposition. Good. We’ve got to get back to persuasion, to politics as the art of the possible. That’s an old tradition too. Meantime onward, do what you think right, feel appropriate anxiety but no crippling fear. Shoulders back. We’re the U.S.-blinkin’-A., baby, and we make our way through.” • I repeat that control of the House is not yet decided. And meanwhile—
“Against Panic: A Survival Kit” [Margaret Renkl, New York Times]. “Donald Trump is not a blip or an aberration. That should have been clear long since. From the moment the carnival barker in chief came down a golden escalator, through his first outrageous campaign of lies, through the nightmare of his first snake-oil presidency, through his murderous silence during the assault on the Capitol, through the hearings and the trials that only shored up the support of his base, the MAGA fever dream was never even close to breaking.” I don’t begrudge this nice liberal Democrat lady her house, the woods behind her house, her books, her lunches, her restaurant meals, or her position as a contributing Opinion writer at the New York Times. I have been very lucky in my life, and I have ended up with most of those things too (though I don’t work at the Times MR SUBLIMINAL Thank God. I come from Renkl’s milieu — English teaching — in the PMC. But Renkl needs to understand some things. First, most working class Americans do not have the security she has (and not, I hasten to add, because they are in any way morally inferior beings, or stupid). Second, the Democrat Party to which Renkl give every indication of being a fully paid-up member, has failed Renkl in literally every respect. It has not stopped Trump. More to the point, it does not “have the back” of the working class. And what Renkl and her ilk will end up doing is doubling down on fail. As she says: “To fight the calamities that are coming, we will need to find what gives us joy even amid the fight, and we will need to find a way to rest when the fight is too much to bear. To allow the braying winners to turn us into desolate, impotent shadows with stones forever lodged in our throats would be to let them win even more surely than they won at the ballot box last week.” • What does that even mean? What is there that is actionanble?! Like Snyder, Masciotra, and Tomasky, Renkl’s writing seems pre-political; the words are the words of highly sophisticated adults, but driven by the feelings of a disappointed and enraged six-year-old (hence the pre-adult quality of the writing).
* * * Lambert here: The day after the election, I explained my methodology for covering election 2024, concluding that “potential paths to victory for the ultimate winner were always clear. I’m also happy to have kept drawing that red box around Pennsylvania, where the Blue Wall first cracked.” After a day or so, I came to feel that further explanation was warranted. This quotation from “The Scouring of the Shire,” Lord of the Rings, Volume Three, came into my mind as I was trying to clarify my thoughts:
To the dismay of those that stood by, about the body of Saruman a grey mist gathered, and rising slowly to a great height like smoke from a fire, as a pale shrouded figure it loomed over the Hill. For a moment it wavered, looking to the West; but out of the West came a cold wind, and it bent away, and with a sigh dissolved into nothing. Frodo looked down at the body with pity and horror, for as he looked it seemed that long years of death were suddenly revealed in it, and it shrank, and the shrivelled face became rags of skin upon a hideous skull. Lifting up the skirt of the dirty cloak that sprawled beside it, he covered it over, and turned away.
The event for which I did not prepare you, dear readers, was the nature of Trump’s victory; the margin was always going to be small, but that Trump would win all the swing states, or that nearly all counties would undergo a Red Shift didn’t enter my mind. Now, part of the issue was that I tend to operate from a heuristic of scarcity: Not what will there be, but will there be enough? So, as here, I tend to be good with outcomes and directionality, but not so good with degrees. But I think my real issue was sourcing. If my reading is correct, an enormous amount of mass communication — not just campaign advertising, but mass communication — on the conservative side over election 2024 took place in video, on TikTok especially, but also long-form on YouTube. The prose sources I tend to look at still have enough value, discounted though it must be, to get me to outcomes, but I would have needed much better video sourcing to understand why Trump’s victory was as dominating as it was. The issue here is that video, in general, has a very low bit-rate, and everything must be taken on authority, because there are no links. The medium is uncongenial to me, pressed temporally as I am, and in any case I don’t want to amplify evidence-free garbage takes to readers. How to adjust my methodology for a new and much less literate polity is an open question for me.
Oh, and the “grey mist” that was Saruman is clearly the “old,” mainstream media, in which I am still enmeshed, a high bit-rate, newsroom-created, prose-based medium that at point performed a valuable social function, but whose power in this election proved illusory (the “hideous skull” being having become a squillionaire-adjacent Democrat asset with “access” to spooks — “spook scoop” kinda sums up the last four years of stenography). And now it’s blown away. “Sad.”
Democrats en Déshabillé
“Who will lead Democrats in 2028? Meet the leaders positioning themselves to make moves” [Politico]. Ah, “rising stars.” “As she watched Shapiro glad-hand in a Concord bookshop one late October morning after stumping for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Joyce Craig, local Democratic activist Maura Willing marveled about the party’s deep bench.” Josh Shapiro, Gavin Newsom, Andy Beshear, JB Pritzker, Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer, John Fetterman, Wes Moore, Ro Khanna, Tim Walz (no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, probably not; I think Walz got a raw deal from Kamala’s goons).
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Arizona attorney general says she has ‘no intention’ of dropping fake electors case” [NBC]. “A state grand jury in April charged over a dozen allies of Trump for allegedly attempting to send a slate of alternate electors to the Electoral College in 2020. Joe Biden won the state by several thousand votes that year, leading the state to certify a slate of electors for him. Those charged include big names like former Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani and former Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows.” • Again, the contingent (“alternate”) electors were civilians, who shouldn’t have been sucked into the gang warfare.
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Airborne Transmission: Covid
“I’ve had a realisation about one of the sliding doors moments in the pandemic” [@1goodtern, Threadreader]. This is really excellent and worth reading in full. “I had a chat with a consultant anaesthetist a couple of months ago when he asked me why I wore an ffp3 mask, and a couple of things he said in reply didn’t make sense. His words had been bouncing round in the back of my head all this time, then I saw something today that made complete sense of them. He had been talking about the distinction between droplets and aerosols and how he had had training and briefings at which he had seen studies that had *proven* that most transmission in healthcare settings was *at close range*… Based on that, he thought that surgical masks (‘fluid resistant/repellant surgical masks’, frsm) were adequate to stop transmission. In his mind, ‘close range’ and ‘short range’ meant *droplets*.” • But “close range” means aerosols, too! (Ask yourself where the smell of cigarette smoke is strongest; near the smoker, of course, at close range. But the smell doesn’t come from droplets.) I didn’t get the physics of it early on myself, and I’m guessing I’m not alone. The thread is also very much worth reading for the culture of medical professionals.
Transmission: Covid
Bad news from California:
BREAKING: California's COVID report states 46% of wastewater sites are increasing, up from 25% last week.
Positivity increased for the 2nd week in a row to 3.5%. pic.twitter.com/vEXy8G7vmX
— CyFi (@CyFi10) November 8, 2024
Not what CDC says, though the timing could be different.
Transmission: H5N1
More bad news from California:
California now has twelve sewersheds with H5N1 https://t.co/VOMjVMpsus
— Roland Baker (@RolandBakerIII) November 10, 2024
Vaccines: Covid
“Woman Fired For Refusing Covid Vaccine Wins Record $12 Million” [Newsweek]. “federal jury in Detroit awarded more than $12 million Friday to a former Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan (BCBSM) employee who was terminated after declining to get a COVID-19 vaccination, citing religious discrimination.” • I’m so sick of privileging the religious in discrimination and “conscience clause” cases when it’s really all politics. You can bet that if anybody cited “Christian values” when they brought a case before the NLRB they’d be laughed at and shot down (even though there’s plenty of Catholic thought in that area). In any case, public health only and as usual got it 180° wrong, as I’ve muttered on several occasions. We should never have mandated vaccines, and we should have mandated non-pharmaceutical interventions. And so public health managed to destroy the credibility of both, good job.
| Wastewater | |
| ★ This week[1] CDC November 4 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| ★ Variants [3] CDC November 9 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 2 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| New York[5] New York State, data November 7: | ★ National [6] CDC November 8: |
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| Positivity | |
| ★ National[7] Walgreens November 11: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 2: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity[9] CDC October 21: | Variants[10] CDC October 21: |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 2: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 2: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Good news!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* still popular. XEC has entered the chat. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.
[4] (ED) Down.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Actually improved; it’s now one of the few charts to show the entire course of the pandemic to the present day.
[7] (Walgreens) Down.
[8] (Cleveland) Down.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down.
[10] (Travelers: Variants). Now XEC.
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Sentiment: “United States NFIB Business Optimism Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US increased to 91.5 in September 2024 from 91.2 in August, missing forecasts of 91.7. This was the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Shows Why Squeezing Workers Is Reckless” [Boeing]. “A shocking percentage of full-time workers don’t earn enough to raise a family, and that was true even before the recent spike in inflation made everything a lot more expensive. As much as two-thirds of full-time workers age 25 and older can’t cover the basic necessities for a family of four with one parent working, according to wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and living wage estimates from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. It’s this reality that has injected fresh vigor into labor action in recent years. Unions have scored first-time organizing wins at companies across industries including at Starbucks Corp., Apple Inc., Wells Fargo & Co. and Amazon.com Inc., while picketing workers have won record pay increases in some cases. Boeing’s is the latest victory, and expect more to follow as more workers refuse to show up for work that doesn’t allow them to pay the bills. In the Seattle area, where Boeing produces most of its aircraft, a living wage is roughly $50 an hour for a family of four with one adult working, according to MIT’s living wage calculator, or about $104,000 a year based on a 40-hour work week. It’s probably no coincidence then that Boeing’s labor deal will raise the average machinist’s annual wage to $119,000 over four years. Assuming 3% annual inflation, a living wage for a family of four will be closer to $117,000 in four years, very nearly matching what Boeing’s workers agreed to.
The substantial wage increase shows the degree to which Boeing’s workers fall short of a living wage. It’s a harsh truth that Boeing could easily hide from investors because public companies — even the biggest, most vital among them — are not required to disclose how much they pay workers, a hole in their financial statements that regulators should plug.” • Hmm. Social reproduction theory?
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s head of quality for commercial planes, Elizabeth Lund, is retiring” [Seattle Times]. “Elizabeth Lund, senior vice president of quality at Boeing Commercial Airplanes and one of the company’s most prominent female executives, will retire next month, the company said Monday… Lund had risen over a long career to senior vice president and general manager of all airplane programs. A month after the fuselage blowout on Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 in January, Lund was given the task of leading the quality organization and coming up with a plan to restore the confidence of both the public and the Federal Aviation Administration in Boeing’s management of its product quality. However in June, Lund was rebuked by the National Transportation Safety Board for breaking strict disclosure rules about ongoing accident investigations when she publicly commented on details about how the Alaska Airlines incident had occurred. As a result, Boeing’s access to the NTSB’s investigative information on the incident was withdrawn.” • Oopsie.
Manufacturing: “Where Will Boeing Be In 3 Years?” [The Motley Fool]. “Over the last 12 months, Boeing’s net loss totals $8 billion — its worst loss ever since the first year of the pandemic. Admittedly, a big chunk of Boeing’s loss is attributable to a one-time event, the company’s fourth-longest-ever labor strike, which contributed about $4 billion to losses in Q3.” • I don’t play the ponies, or read balance sheets (any more), but the cost of the new machinist’s contract over four years looks like ~$1.5 billion. So Boeing spent $4 billion (and raised another $25 billion or so in stock and debt) to save $1.5 billion. Make it make sense.
Manufacturing: “Fixing Boeing Could Mean Breaking It Up” [Barron’s]. “‘Breaking apart Boeing’s divisions….could be a calculated action to release latent value and give stockholders a clearer road toward long-term success,’ wrote The Edge founder Jim Osman in a Sunday article for Forbes…. Commercial airplanes and defense aren’t profitable segments currently. The services segment has continued to make money despite Boeing’s recent problems, which include poor quality, lower production, and cost inflation…. ‘Separating these divisions would enable Boeing to let every division focus on resources and leadership more precisely toward its goals,’ added Osman, who owns Boeing stock. Recent problems have called for investor confidence to be restored, so this can offer a more open view of Boeing’s operations and value and help to rebuild it.'” • Ah, “confidence.”
Tech: Good question:
“Why isn’t google being broken up on monopoly charges?”
I have a better question:
Remember when Google scanned every book in every library then stopped immediately halfway through?
What did they find?
— John Ʌ Konrad V (@johnkonrad) November 9, 2024
Possible answer:
Google has scanned over 25M books, but you can’t read them.
Fears over cannibalization of print sales & copyright concerns killed much of the project. But it turns out that digitization INCREASED print demand. The effects are big: an average of around $3,750 more sales per book. pic.twitter.com/B8ckuk6aLW
— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) November 14, 2023
Makes sense because real books are easier and more pleasurable to read than digital ones (and more memorable). Also, Google wants to keep people ignorant, as does Silicon Valley generally.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 68 Greed (previous close: 60 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 41 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 11 at 2:15:59 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 182. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Hard to believe the Rapture Index is going down. Do these people know something we don’t?
Gallery
Snow, sigh:
Claude Monet
Efecto de nieve en Argenteuil, 1875 pic.twitter.com/V2ZTkgkZXd— El Club del Arte 🎨📷📚🖼🕍🎼 (@Arteymas_) November 10, 2024
“You’re Not a Fearmonger. You Have Sentinel Intelligence” [Jessica, The Sentinel Intelligence]. “Sentinel intelligence refers to a special cognitive ability that allows someone to detect threats before anyone else. Richard A. Clarke and R.P. Eddy talk about this trait in their book, Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes. They review a number of natural and economic disasters throughout history. As they write, ‘in each instance a Cassandra was pounding the table and warning us precisely about the disasters that came as promised.’ Not only were they ignored, but ‘the people with the power to respond often put more effort into discounting the Cassandra than saving lives and resources.’ It just keeps happening. If you have sentinel intelligence, your brain can aggregate and sift through extraordinary amounts of information in a very short period of time, especially when it comes to seeing latent or hidden dangers. You don’t get stymied by what Clarke and Eddy call the ‘magnitude of overload.’ In some ways, it’s a superpower. Research on sensitive individuals confirms how sentinels and Cassandras think. Social psychologist Tsachi Ein-Dor writes that some of us ‘are chronically hypervigilant and constantly alert to potential threats and dangers. Other individuals, once alerted to a threat, are self-reliant and likely to take protective actions rapidly and effectively.’ In other words, we’re hardwired alarm systems. Groups are more likely to survive when they have a mix of people who are skilled at detecting, communicating, and acting on threats to their survival. Some of us can identify threats just by knowing that something’s off. One study in Nature Scientific Reports describes this ability as scene gist. As they explain, ‘Scene gist extracted rapidly from the environment may help people detect threats.’ The shapes and contours of a landscape can trigger our threat brains even before we know the details of what we’re looking at.” • “Scene gist,” hmm.
“11.0- Welcome to the Martian Revolution” (podcast) [Mike Duncan, Revolutions]. • Mike Duncan has returned!
Musical Interlude
Sound sytems — trucks stacked with speakers and a power source — are ubiquitous outside the West. You might think of them as musical technicals:
The Fatman HiFi sound system on LWT with Janet Street-Porter in 1976, complete with a lesson on how to dance to ska, rock steady, reggae and dub. A much longer clip is at https://t.co/kK1ywgyvL8 pic.twitter.com/EpJf3tOBLp
— Birmingham 81 (@Birmingham_81) November 9, 2024
“Metal Box” was great, but (and) round:
This is square. (“Haile Unlikely” is probably the best Rastafarian-adjacent song-title ever.)
“Ultra-wealthy Democrats race to buy London boltholes after Trump win” [The Telegraph]. “Becky Fatemi, executive partner at Sotheby’s International Realty, said she received five calls in two days from wealthy Americans who want to move as an immediate reaction to the US election result… ‘That’s people saying, ‘he’s here, and he’s here for the next four years, and I don’t want to be, so these are the dates that we’re flying over’. All of those five are coming here within the next week,’ Ms Fatemi said…. In the past two months, enquiries to her team from American buyers looking in the UK have jumped by 30pc year on year, Ms Fatemi said.” • Good riddance, say I. And it’s amusing to think of ultra-wealthy Democrats squabbling with corrupt Ukrainians for London property, though I imagine the middlemen will make out great, as usual.
“Rethinking My Economics” [Angus Deaton, International Monetary Fund]. From March, and first mentioned by alert reader Turtle. ” Economics Nobel Prize winners have been known to denounce each other’s work at the ceremonies in Stockholm, much to the consternation of those laureates in the sciences who believe that prizes are given for getting things right.” Ouch! And: “[Mainstream] economists, who have prospered mightily over the past half century, might fairly be accused of having a vested interest in capitalism as it currently operates.” More: “Without an analysis of power, it is hard to understand inequality or much else in modern capitalism.” More: “[W]e have largely stopped thinking about ethics and about what constitutes human well-being.” And: “[A] concern with distribution was overruled by attention to the average, often nonsensically described as the “national interest.'” And: “Historians, who understand about contingency and about multiple and multidirectional causality, often do a better job than economists of identifying important mechanisms that are plausible, interesting, and worth thinking about.” • Worth reading in full.
“The massed-spaced learning effect in non-neural human cells” [Nature]. From the Abstract: “The massed-spaced effect is a hallmark feature of memory formation. We now demonstrate this effect in two separate non-neural, immortalized cell lines… . Our findings show that canonical features of memory do not necessarily depend on neural circuitry, but can be embedded in the dynamics of signaling cascades conserved across different cell types.” Commentary is wild:
went to read the rest of this paper and ??????????? https://t.co/xcIZ9sWZOb pic.twitter.com/VZ4VZRSueJ
— 𝓅౨ৎ (@peonyprncss) November 8, 2024
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From JB:
JB writes: “Conks of Phellinus fungus proliferating on a dead tree . . . life persists!”
Also, life persists in a different way; during the election coverage, I had suggested that readers might like to send in pictures of comfort food. Alert reader Petal did:
Petal wrote: “Macaroni and cheese (with ham) from scratch.” And it looks as good now as it did then!
Kind readers, my queue for plant images is growing a bit short, and that always makes me queasy. Do you have an images to send in, especially of autumn produce or winter projects? Thank you!
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New rule; when posting picture of delicious looking food the readers must get a sample. Looks yummy petal – enjoy.
Good heavens. That looks suspiciously like a yummy casserole. Toss in some green beans and potatoes and you have the opening salvo of a vegetarian banquet.
I agree with “screwball” above. How to deliver tastes to the commentariat? Some algo that would run a 3-D printer that “made” food? That’s verging on Star Trek territory; food replicators. (In the original plan/layout diagram of the NCC 1701 Enterprise, the largest segment of the living quarters was a communal kitchen. Roddenberry “got” that cooking was an important part of human artistic expression.)
I’d love nothing more than to have you all over and feed you around a big table with a great conversation going. It would make me happy.
If you want the recipe, yell, and I’ll post it.
Yell!
If that’s swiss cheese, then yodel!
(If anyone complains, we’ll tell them that this is an exercise in [Home] Economics.)
petal, it looks delish. Please post the recipe.
In a small sauce pan, melt 3 tablespoons of butter or margarine over lowish heat. After it’s melted, add 1 cup of milk(I use 1% these days but anything is fine). Stir. Then add 3 heaping tablespoons of flour(like the tablespoons you have in your cutlery drawer). Mix well and crush up the flour bubbles that form. Then add one 8oz. bar of sliced-up Cabot Seriously Sharp cheese. Keep stirring over lowish heat until the cheese is melted and you have a nice sauce. Keep stirring and don’t walk away so the bottom doesn’t burn. During/after the cheese is melting/melted, you can add diced or sliced ham if you like. I used to add a little bit of salt to taste but I don’t anymore. Between the cheese and the ham, it comes out okay for me. While the sauce is being made, boil up some elbow macaroni. Mix the elbow macaroni and the cheese sauce in a glass baking dish(I use a pie dish like above), and bake in oven at 350-375F until top gets crunchy and bubbling. I think it usually takes 30-45 minutes. The amount of macaroni you make-experiment with it a little until you find what you like consistency-wise. If it comes out a little bit soupy, it’s delicious. Sometimes I end up making too much macaroni in order to stretch it into more meals. I hope that all makes sense.
It’s not the healthiest thing going, but it’s good comfort food, and the leftovers microwave well.
The sauce works for making scalloped potatoes, too. Very tasty and leftovers nuke well.
Most excellent – thank you!
Merci beaucoup!
Thank you.
Mac and cheese, does not get much better than this for comfort food along side my late mother’s Fried Chicken. Pass the biscuits and sweet tea.
Baseball and Apple pie too…Or a Charlie Brown Christmas special but it’s early yet…
Everything my mother made was delicious. It wasn’t the ingredients or the recipe. This sounds ridiculously sappy, but she made everything with love, for people she loved, and I’m convinced that made it yummy. Example: She made something she called “Chop Suey,” with leftover pork, canned Chinese vegetables (mostly water chestnuts and bean sprouts) served on white rice, with soy sauce and crunchy canned chow mein noodles on top. I know you don’t believe me: DELICIOUS. You had to be there.
I believe you. My mom cooked Chop Suey using the same recipe occasionally adding pineapple. Topped with lots of crunchy chow mein noodles and soy sauce – it was delicious. Thanks for the memories!
My mama was not a fancy cook but oh how I wish I could have one of her Midwestern comfort meals tonight!
Two favorites:
•Pork chops fried in butter and served with baked apples (sliced in half, baked with a dab of butter and brown sugar on top)
•Meatloaf (baked with ground beef mixed with Quaker oats, eggs, chopped onions, Worcestershire sauce, salt and pepper) covered with a ketchup and brown sugar glaze (slightly burnt for crunchy goodness) and served with baked potatoes (lots of melted butter on top)
> Two favorites
Sounds like they come right out of the Fannie Farmer Cookbook, and I mean that as a compliment.
I don’t remember my mother ever owing a cookbook. She made simple recipes her mother had taught her. Often she would substitute crushed Saltines (crackers) for the Quaker oatmeal in the meatloaf (then you can leave out the added salt). It seemed like everyone had boxes of Saltines back in the ’60’s.
Those pork chops sound quite tasty and enjoyable. I might need to break down these winter months and try my hand at the Mac and cheese recipe above, in spite of my tendency at laziness for cooking.
Burning Bridges – Kelly’s Heroes (Youtube)
Me thinks this should be the official theme song of the Democratic Party. Parody lyrics may not even be necessary.
I nominate It’s All Over Now, Baby Blue.
May I be a bit contrarian here and nominate Al Stewart’s song “Roads to Moscow,” about the German invasion of Russia in 1941? The parallels are a bit too close for comfort.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roads_to_Moscow
Not a rocker, but closer to his early folk roots.
Loser:
The Fletcher Memorial Home
Pink Floyd- The Final Cut
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvHjY_w8bJk
Dang. Boomer moment. Let’s see if I can link…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvHjY_w8bJk
First link works fine for me.
This is a really good. I kinda stepped away from Pink Floyd when the giant inflatable pig came along, but they’re still a great band. The lyrics are absolutely classic generational analysis, though (as I read them, at least. Perhaps I am being uncharitable because being strapped to a bed in a nursing home with a TV that I can’t turn off is my ultimate nightnare, so I, er, “identify as” the “they” of the song (which is prophetic, too, the final solution being Covid)).
BCBS in Michigan losing the vaccine mandate lawsuit.
Better get used to reading this story. The plaintiff lawyers, according to people I know involved, are literally roasting alive the defendants – employers.
The public Provincetown massive infection among the vaccinated ( months before the mandates were imposed), the complete and total breach of all kinds of medical ethics, and the statements put out by Big Pharma since the mandates showing they knew there were big problems – are torpedeoing any case these defendants had. It is literally “get out the checkbook time.” There is no defense – and the jurors are in a punishing mood. Accordingly, lots of these are being settled out of court.
This is a disaster. As I have repeatedly stated, it was just unbelievable to watch all these corporations impose this on their employees – all the while the real perpetrators – Pharma – has complete immunity. I could scarcely believe it when it happened. And also as I have stated, medical ethics are for the protection of the patient and the profession. Instead of listening to those in medical ethics who were really decrying this – they fired them. Instead – they listened to those at elite medical centers being bankrolled by millions of Pharma cash.
Oh well, we tried. Get out the checkbooks guys – the fun is just beginning.
How many of the cases seeking damages for these injuries will end up clumped together and vitiated in that den of thieves, the US bankruptcy courts?
And what incentives and disincentives will emerge or remain, after the lobbying and Mighty Wurlitzer are brought to bear?
Walz was indeed utilized very poorly. What he actually was wasn’t bad, and things like the hunting stunt and dressing him up like he was cosplaying Elmer Fudd for interviews had nothing to do with the reality of him.
They played to upper middle class urban stereotypes of rural people and hunters to such a ridiculous extent that it seems their research consisted of watching reruns of the Beverly Hillbillies.
Flagrant mis casting of Walz and borderline insulting to the very people they hoped to pander to.
Not that handling him well would have brought victory, the problems overall were too deep for that, but it was pathetic.
> Walz was indeed utilized very poorly
I might add that neither of the two sex scandals ginned up by Republicans came to anything, so you’ve got to assume they took their best shot and he’s clean (Democrats aren’t the only party that can gin up a sex scandal).
Maybe the biggest difference between Governor Walz and VP candidate Walz is that here in Minnesota, they did a much better job of keeping Gwen Walz hidden away. I don’t watch TV news so I suppose it’s not surprising I’d never seen video of her, but I do follow MN GOP on X and I’m sure they would have shared had she delivered any moments like she did on the campaign trail for Harris. I would have seen or heard of them because even off-the-record the Walz people I knew would not talk about her other than to express intense dislike.
Still a bit surprised that what I’d seen of Walz was pretty much all that there was: great at spontaneous sound bytes at state fairs, a bit manic when scripted and word salad prone when asked to defend the indefensible. It will be interesting to see if the DFL replaces him with his Lt. Governor or if it’s a contested race in which case a certain legislator who does not live with their family in their district really does need to come out of the closet before running again. Secrets are all the way out, transparency is what is needed and the politicians who learn to fake that will be our future rulers.
What was the problem with Gwen Walz?
Her campaign speech in Wisconsin towards the end is only seven minutes long and probably the best argument for her being a plus. The least catty reaction to Walz is that she’s a preachy school marm who works the teacher schtick with lines like “yes it is,” “and it’s due tomorrow!” “I thought so” etc.
An important FYI about this “neighbors” approach is that MN and WI are much more into rivalry and trash talk than anything neighborly. One of those rare political occasions where some mild trash talk is all but obligatory. The Walzes should have approached WI voters like they were at the Al Smith Dinner in NYC. A Vikings-Packers joke would have gone over well even if delivered ironically (I suppose I’m obligated to tell a joke about the Vikings and Packers…).
This shorter news clip from a Virginia tv news show of slightly more fired up rhetoric shows the problem: when Gwen gets wound up, she looks kinda crazy and combining crazy with a self-aware teacher schtick is disconcerting to some viewers.
I’m only giving you a glimpse of the problem. To see clips that are more unkind, check out conservative podcasters. It’s very easy to splice her “moments” together into a crescendo of crazy lady who looks like a Nancy Pelosi-Hillary Clinton morph. The Harris folks who knew to hide her had good instincts. Thirty minutes of brilliant rhetoric are eassily undone by one wild-eyed snapshot.
As for the actual Gwen Walz, the people I know who’ve worked with her don’t say why but do say they never want to work with her again. And they say it in the same way similar folks used to not want to talk about why they didn’t want to ever work for Amy Klobuchar again.
Sorry for the long answer but I don’t think there’s a shorter one.
> To see clips that are more unkind, check out conservative podcasters. It’s very easy to splice her “moments” together into a crescendo of crazy lady who looks like a Nancy Pelosi-Hillary Clinton morph. The Harris folks who knew to hide her had good instincts. Thirty minutes of brilliant rhetoric are eassily undone by one wild-eyed snapshot.
All of this can be undone by a decent campaign operation: I would say it’s a matter of bringing on the Walz’s too fast. No seasoning at the national level (unlike, say, Doug Emhoff, who was able to brush off a serious #MeToo challenge, one with affidavits).
The factoid I remember is that Gwen Walz had about 40 students on her debate team. At a small school.
So I wonder how much that’s going on here is a dick-measuring equivalent (“stolen valor”).
Well, she does seem like she’s been a teacher so long she speaks as though adults are children. I have a feeling that goes over better in Minnesota than the rest of the country. It would be easy to parody for sure.
Hydrogen psychosis?
Saw a clip of Walz just after the election and he was p*****. More or less said that how could people be so stupid to vote for the other side. No grace at all, no ‘we tried’ just had to insult people that did not vote for him.
I noticed in what portions of the concession speeches I could stomach, never was there a “I’d like to thank my team, we put up a good fight”…just blame shifting.
Pathetic. Call up jim mora and have a struggle session.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-oSFYxDGKy8
Rethinking Economics. Angus Deaton.
The article / meditation is worth a read, if anything for how much Deaton got wrong and how long it has taken him to change his ethics in a discipline that sure seems to have lost its way ethically.
There is this: “Like most of my age cohort, I long regarded unions as a nuisance that interfered with economic (and often personal) efficiency and welcomed their slow demise.”
“Most of my age cohort”? No, most of the university faculty lounge. All I could think of is how much damage thinking like this has caused when it got into the law schools and produced Law & Economics, which is just a walking, talking human-rights violation.
I am on the road so I can’t check the exact quote, but Anne Case and Angus Deaton began their famous book by stating that capitalism would be the “cure” for “deaths of despair.” It took me a month to get back to it.
Just scrolled down while drinking a Blanton’s in the hotel bar. An elixir! I defer to Michael Hudson down thread!
> “deaths of despair.”
At least they mentioned it!
Well, I think you expressed it pretty well with rule 2. They might be saying the same thing. Now I gotta actually read the d$mn book. Bugger!
Opening of “Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism” –
“For the white working class, today’s America has become a land of broken families and few prospects.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/books/review/deaths-of-despair-and-the-future-of-capitalism-anne-case-angus-deaton.html
March 17, 2020
How the White Working Class Is Being Destroyed
By Arlie Russell Hochschild
DEATHS OF DESPAIR AND THE FUTURE OF CAPITALISM
By Anne Case and Angus Deaton
A 43-year-old white man I will call Darin was recently divorced and recovering from a car accident when he was fired from his job in a biscuit factory. “We all have different bottoms,” he explained to me in an interview in a small town in coal country. “I reached mine after I overheard the man I’d always assumed was my real dad introduce me as his stepson. That was my bottom.” Then it was a quart of whiskey a day.
“Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism” is about just such men. But it begins with a larger mystery. Over the last century, Americans’ life expectancy at birth has risen from 49 to 77. Yet in recent years, that rise has faltered. Among white people age 45-54 — or a time many view as the prime of life — deaths have risen. Especially vulnerable are white men without a four-year bachelor’s degree. Curiously, midlife deaths have not climbed in other rich countries, nor, for the most part, have they risen for American Hispanics or blacks. In fact, black people with B.A.s are now more likely to live through midlife than white people without B.A.s…
I suppose this is kinda far afield from Deaton’s essay, but recently, I was discussing with a colleague how to “clean” some survey data (not political) and found ourselves in a quandary. Basically, most people who are recruited for a few bucks to complete a survey by some opinion research organization suck, or at least, they are not helpful–they have no real interest in giving “good” answers to a survey and their answers are mostly junk–and this is true. So my colleague wanted to go after the “bad” responses aggressively and get rid of about half the obs for this reason or that.
I’m usually pretty hesitant about getting rid of observations: they convey some kind of information, even if it’s not “good” information, and in many cases, people who give “bad” responses are meaningfully correlated with something of interst to the people running the survey. If you want to do good :science” (or, in other words, do what you know the reviewers will demand), the “bad” responses have to go, but doing so, you become wilfully blind. Before he became a crank, Krugman wrote a thoughtful essay that drew comparison between “science” (well, economics, but the argument applies broadly) and cartography: ancient maps of faraway places were actually pretty good–they contained a lot of good information about places where no one from, say, Rome, would have gone. So the Han Dynasty Chinese had pretty good idea aobut the Roman Empire and the classical era Romans knew about the Himalayas and Mount Kilimanjaro (I know that the former is true, I’m sort of making up the latter, if you are being nitpicky.) But they also included a lot of bad information picked up from, figuratively or literally, drunken sailors and tellers of tall tales. Higher standards for cartography in the West, starting from the Age of Exploration, erased a lot of information that was known about the places where Westerners have not seen themselves and produced detailed observations that met the standards, with all the babies having been thrown out with the bathwater. Now, this, Krugman argued, was a good thing in the long run, because that meant that the lost information would be replaced with better ones when the explorers went back to produce detailed records–assuming that you can actually go back and produce better records.
I tend to think this is wishful thinking. One thing I have come to believe about polling/survey/expt related research, especially in social sciences and, possibly, in some aspects of medical science as well, is that we cannot send explorers to the figurative heart of Africa. We will never get the kind of sample or experimental subject pool we like and those who consent to participate will always be heavily biased. This goes on top of people lying to the experimenters/pollsters because they expect some sort of agenda. Throwing away data just because they don’t meet your standards (assuming that your “standards” are themselves not imposing your own biases in some form) is dangerous, IMHO. We already an example of this in the story told by a pollster before the elections (I think it was in one of the articles linked form NC, on RealClearPolitics, I think, but I can’t find it now): the pollster told a story of how many of his “bad” observations are people who indicated (in some form) support for Trump and basically humg up on the poll taker. He knew that trying to get a “clean” sample, consisting only of “good” data was going to cause problems and was pulling his hair out, so to speak, to incorporate the good “bad” data in the sample somehow. (these people are more trouble than that they didn’t give answer as to whom they supported: nowadays, because many voters are known to be much harder to reach, you have to come up with creative ways to extend the data, via weights etc. You need a lot of answers about the poll subjects themselves so that you can figure out where they fit. If they don’t answer, you have to guess which demographic groups they belong to and make even more stuff up, if you want to use them as data. Or, you have to rely on those who cooperated with the survey taker and overweigh the few people from rare demographics who did answer more properly–is this how Iowa Polls screwed up? We know Selzer oversampled some demographics, but was this because she expected more resistance, as in uncooperative respondents? Does this mean that the people who did respond skewed in one direction? Regardless of whatever she might have done, the danger of making stuff up for limited data by “educated conjectures”!) So, you are structurally constrained from getting more and better (or, at least, not too badly biased) data. You can never figure out what’s in the Terra Incognita, not if you insist on “science.” (And we are not even talking about “scientism” here: the demands of the “science” here are eminently reasonable if you want to be sure that you know what you think you know.)
This is in fact an increasingly serious problem which e.g. made people like myself occupied with other things during COVID stop argueing at some point because it appeared to become possible that you will find reasonable arguments for anything. And if the heat is on very quickly skepticism becomes a liability. And since you are not an expert for real and you have neither time nor inclination to become one you choose to shut up.
Even now the issue (COVID) is not solved – at all – as discourse and apparently the science too are concerned. Which I don´t get. And the more life-threatening the subject the more true your point. Which is not a good thing to observe.
> You can never figure out what’s in the Terra Incognita, not if you insist on “science.” (And we are not even talking about “scientism” here: the demands of the “science” here are eminently reasonable if you want to be sure that you know what you think you know.)
Sounds to me like something akin to reflexivity is acting here. I imagine there’s a formal name for what you describe, but I don’t know what it is.
I suppose that’s what we have politics for, but I don’t think politics as currently conceived is doing a very good job. More sortition (yes), but also citizen assemblies and citizen science (for areas where Terra Incognita is discoverable).
Excellent commentary!- Another good reason to come to NC. The “Terra Incognita” metaphor, I like it!
Not only has digitization increased book demand, it has increased music demand. Once forgotten, long out of print albums now generate a little income for somebody on the streaming platforms.
> Once forgotten, long out of print albums now generate a little income for somebody on the streaming platforms.
Good!
What hypocrisy from that bastard Deaton.
In 2016, David Graeber and I were at the Frankfurt Book Fair together because our books were being translated into German.
A television broadcaster asked David and me to talk about our books. and then went to Deaton (who showed no friendliness to anyone and just lurked alone as if he were above everyone.” The reporter came back and said that he refused to be on the same program with us because “he would not meet with anyone who didn’t believe in capitalism.” I think he meant David as an anarchist, but who knows. We were together a number of times and he always ignored us both. When he was talking — one of the worst speeches I had ever heard, about government regulations on entrepreneurs being like a prison — David (who had given the preceding presentation) just turned to me and said, “Don’t even bother to argue with him.”
My publishers later reminded me of this, because I forecast that Trump would win the presidential election a month away. The audience gasped and the publisher worried that I might lose credibility. But he said that this soon helped sell the book. Killing the Host (Der Sector) was even available at airport books shops.
> “he would not meet with anyone who didn’t believe in capitalism.”
Lordy!
If he’s a bastard, what’s the word for the rest of ’em?
Let us resurrect an old term and refer to them as “by-blows.”
It sounds just sleazy enough to get the point across both intellectually and emotionally.
Thanks MH for today’s LOL
Who is Angues Deaton?!
(I know M. Hudson and D. Graeber)
Nobel Prize
It really makes you laugh (or cry)
Or as the late German writer Wilhelm Genazino said: An award funded by someone who made his fortune with producing and selling explosives regarded as some pinnacle of human achievement tells you something about that very intellectual culture. Of course he was referrring to the literary award but that comes down to be the same thing as economics in the end. And as a physicist friend from Switzerland argued recently, physics more and more turns into the same exchangeable commodity.
Deaton is a well known econometrician. He and his wife had written about mortality spike in both former USSR in 1990s (actually, just his wife on that project) and in US in early 2000s, among other things. Never met the man, but I know one of the co-authors in the first project.
So possible that I even read some of their stuff re: post-89 RU and excess deaths.
If I remember correctly those were around 500k/ p.a. in peak years.
In the light of mass hysteria over 50k in Germany during Covid, it rectifies perspectives a little bit.
I have added orts and scraps. The Blame Cannons really are firing too hard for me to track every barrage; but I think I found the worst of the worst.
It’s a lot like Boeing. Mass resignation by the board and at the very least the the entire C-suite is called for, but that will never happen.
Dang it, saw this, refreshed, and the Jah Wobble went away! Big fan and NC readers who like Metal Box should head over to their favorite music platform to check out his The Five Tone Dragon, Chinese Dub, Molam Dub, Japanese Dub (you may be sensing a pattern here), or any of his other myriad fusion projects. Seminal ’80s bass player who is still putting out compelling music.
Also, Wobble is much more fun to listen to than political podcasts. Just sayin’.
Lambert, in case you may not know this rather than don’t consider it equal to reggae, sound systems are common in the UK – possibly from the Notting Hill Carnival influence – and spread during the 1980’s free party movement and in the 1990’s into Europe taking rave music go the masses. Spiral Tribe was a big name. Plenty of wildcat parties get thrown in wildernesses still.
It took another twenty years for grassroots USA to catch on….
> Lambert, in case you may not know this rather than don’t consider it equal to reggae, sound systems are common in the UK
I don’t think it’s a matter of equality; reggae is a genre, sound systems are a means of delivery.
Since you sent everyone back here to reread your Tolkienist heresies, I thought I’d post some reggae links. So far as I can intuit, the UK reggae scene is driven by collectives that somehow get entangled with elderly reggae stars many of whom had disappeared from the scene, others who simply used the collectives to further amplify their reach as did the late great Lee Scratch Perry. I’m pretty sure there are some more “new” Lee Scratch Perry albums due out for Christmas.
Less well known former Ras Negus member, Kiddus I has been reinvented.
Horace Andy
Ken Boothe
Congo Natty
And still others. If you binge watch I recommend an indica or a hybrid.
> Jah Wobble went away
Jah Wobble is still there, I just checked.
Molam Dub is, I think, Thai dub. There are sound systems all over Southeast Asia, which is great.
What I meant was that when I refreshed the page the youtube stopped playing. Wherever Jah is, he’s still there.
The Blame Cannons are going to cause atmospheric disturbances if they continue, but I bet we’re just getting started with all this hot air.
Sad you’re so quick to dismiss JB Pritzker, Lambert. My 32-year-old daughter and her partner, who were semi-radicalized and made thoroughly cynical by the Democratic Party’s mistreatment of Bernie in 16 & 20, are surprisingly enthusiastic about their governor, who promised to abolish cash bail and did so. I’m no fan of billionaires, but am keeping my eye on this guy who seems to have both progressive chops and youth appeal.
I’m not young, but I am an Illinoisan. I couldn’t and didn’t vote for Harris, but I would have voted for Pritzker based on his work here, and that’s despite my disgust that he fell into line with Biden/Harris genocide policy. He’s done a generally fine job IMO as governor, despite his billionaireness. Even to the point of proposing an income tax hike on his own income bracket and then pouring $40 million of his own cash into trying to pass it (only to see the even richer Ken Griffin and Richard Uehlein outspend him and crush it).
When I was searching for affordable housing and thought I might have to move out of state, Pritzker’s Illinois looked promising to me. I was impressed by what I was hearing and reading about him. It surprised me because I always associated the Pritzker family with Obama and not in a good way.
Earth to Nooners
Remember that time AOC blew up the Speaker vote to get a vote on Medicare for All? No? Oh. LOL.
If ever two things were not the same, this is that example. Gaetz and AOC are not equal. Different animals entirely.
Hahahaha . . . Kamala Harris isn’t on the list for 2028.
[Politico] Maura Willing marveled about the party’s deep bench.” Josh Shapiro, Gavin Newsom, Andy Beshear, JB Pritzker, Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer, John Fetterman, Wes Moore, Ro Khanna, Tim Walz (no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, probably not; I think Walz got a raw deal from Kamala’s goons).
So why did Kamala lose? Simple, she sucks. She’s a TERRIBLE candidate!
Imo any candidate would have to repudiate bidenomics, and dem elites and their donors love it. Maybe tough to get the dem nom with strong support for bottom 60%. I see today’s dem party as the old rep party, warmonger and all in for the rich. It was natural for Kamala to campaign with Cheney… Hillary coulda joined in, too.
Democrats always chew their losers thoroughly then spit them out. Not much else you can do with them anyway, when the candidates are so disposable.
Why it’s almost as if that were a requirement for selection by the donors.
I’ve given Snyder much more benefit of the doubt than he warrants. For all his research into the atrocities of the 20th century, he comes across like an academic Conrad von Hoeztendorf. Both him and Sam Harris have achieved a truly unsettling way of perceiving the world
> a truly unsettling way of perceiving the world
All of these hot takes are unsettling. None of them are well-written!
re: Snyder
When German historic scholarship was still worth something Snyder´s bullshit “Bloodlands” was revealed as such. “This is no serious scholarship” was the verdict.
And when even a dove like Robert Wright of short-lived “THE ATLANTIC” fame and his Non-Zero newsletter says Snyder has some problems you know it´s serious.
Timothy Snyder’s pernicious influence
Jun 09, 2023
https://nonzero.substack.com/p/timothy-snyders-pernicious-influence
p.s. considering how many fine historians are out there who are virtually anonymous and knowing how much work real research means you get an idea what Snyder is spending most of his time on in order to be this popular – not scholarship that´s for sure.
>When German historic scholarship was still worth something Snyder´s bullshit “Bloodlands” was revealed as such. “This is no serious scholarship” was the verdict.
Who, I wonder, pronounced this verdict, and what was their reasons for doing so? I like Nolte, but German court historians writing under occupation are the last people I would go to for scholarship about how they came under occupation. Still, I would like to know.
Other than the usual pro forma shillyshallying (i.e. pretending to demonstrate that Hitler ordered the Worst Thing Ever by citing a single speech), I found Bloodlands an extremely well-written if not exactly groundbreaking account.
And so I was disturbed to watch Snyder fall for the Ukraine nonsense the same way Hitchens fell for Iraq.
His one big point — that stateless people tend to be genocided — seems reasonable, although Snyder’s failure to advance this point with relation to Gaza smacks of moral cowardice to me.
But none of this really changed my reading of Bloodlands. Except to suppose that like everyone else, historians seem unable to learn from history, and maybe Henry Ford was right about the entire discipline, among other things…
Concerning hearts and memories, I recall Wilhelm Reich thought memories were held in the fascia and muscles. His therapy consists of painful deep muscle massage, combined with deep breathing, screaming, etc. Chakra work also releases memories, held in the organs and energy channels.
“The massed-spaced learning effect in non-neural human cells”
This paper suggests to me, that it might not be unfounded to explore some possibility that forms of Lamarck inheritance could and possibly do occur. As conditions for life radically change, I believe the possibilities for observing such anomalous — non-Canonic — inheritance might increase.
Lambert – why no on Ro Khanna? You think he has no shot? Or that he has bad politics? I don’t think he belongs in the same bucket politically as the rest of those folks – he called me personally in 2020 to thank me for donating to Bernie Sanders’ campaign, which he absolutely didn’t have to do (at the point he called me, Bernie had conceded to Biden).
I wrote a letter to Sen. Murphy today (I live in CT) challenging him to take on Schumer. Put your money where your mouth is!
> why no on Ro Khanna
Because it’s as if the Sanders campaigns never were. Pick up the mantle, ffs!
I saw that Michael Hudson had commented above. Post election analysis of Kamala and Trump has occupied the last several days — is it too early to wonder what happened to Jill Stein and the Green Party? I could not get too excited about either Kamala or Trump and I could only resign myself to feeling that no matter which won the election bad outcomes were in store for all — only the details of future disasters changed. The one outcome from the election that I might hope for was that the Greens might get their 5% or whatever percent they needed to become a really truly political party.
However, I could not imagine that Jill Stein were capable to govern and I cannot shake my impression of the Green Party as hopelessly disconnected from political reality. I did not attempt to work through the Green website to understand their positions. I did that in past elections, leaving disheartened at what I understood of the Green positions. I should preface further comment by admitting that I voted for Dick Nixon instead of McGovern after watching the Democratic Convention of that year and observing how many factions of — what to me — seemed crazy and out-of-touch radicals. All I wanted was an end to the War in Vietnam. I stopped watching the convention convinced that McGovern lacked the ability to end the war based on his inability to maintain discipline at what should have been his convention. I cannot shake the feeling that the Green Party is even more out-of-touch than the radicals at McGovern’s convention. Did I read that the Green Party favored reparation payments to African Americans and AmerIndians? Reparations? REALLY? Instead of reparations, a politically toxic concept — Why not favor direct Federal Support for education with a mandate for State matching funds at their previous levels? Why not Federal Support for road repairs in poorly served neighborhoods with a mandate for State matching funds duplicating or increasing their previous levels?
Why did the Green Party perform so poorly this election? There was little contest between Kamala and Trump in most States leaving little RATIONAL worry that 5% of the electorate might ‘spoil’ the outcomes in those states?
If Philly is an example, the Greens lack real party activists, which is why their party is less built now than it was when they first became a thing back in my college days
Most of the greens here are activists for one single cause or another. Mass transit, homelessness, decarceration, police reform, etc. For all of them, their issue is their main commitment. I don’t think there’s a single one for whom “their” party is the main commitment, and sometimes not even the second
Plus, many of them rely on democratic office holder’s to promote their main issues, support which might be less forthcoming if the Greens were effectively competing against the Democrats.
A few years back the working families party people realized that they could compete for the 2 at-large council seats reserved for the party that totals the 2nd largest number of at-large council votes. They appealed to liberal and lefty Democrats to vote for them instead of the inevitable real estate Democrats, and now hold both those at large seats, having outpaced the republicans. Without reducing the number of seats held by the Democrats. This was very low hanging fruit that had been available for decades, but it never occurred to the Greens to try something like that.
I went to a few Green Party meetings here in Arizona after I became disillusioned (to put it mildly) with Obama. There were two or three people who traveled all over the state and put in phenomenal amounts of time circulating petitions to get on the ballot, time after time – these people were literally not sane, bless their hearts. Everybody else mostly wanted to discuss the latest t-shirt design or other absurdly irrelevant matters, and then maybe show up at another meeting next month.
I respect Jill Stein for her courage and tenacity, but I have seen nothing to indicate that anybody with any greater organizing ability has joined the Green Party at any level in the past 15 years.
> There were two or three people who traveled all over the state and put in phenomenal amounts of time circulating petitions to get on the ballot
These are the only activists they have. And it’s not enough.
> the Greens lack real party activists
Yes, but see above–
> I could not imagine that Jill Stein were capable to govern and I cannot shake my impression of the Green Party as hopelessly disconnected from political reality
Resorting to the meme generator:
Sad but true.
Re. Sentinel intelligence
I’m sure this sales pitch will trade at a premium on the NASDAQ, but the kind of ‘vigilance’ that Adderall delivers on the SATs comes with an equivalent loss of perspicacity.
As in “burning fossil fuels kills this planet”. Get your noses out of the test booklet, wannabe Sentinels! Look around!
The panic level is amazing. The landslide reelection of Reagan and the reelection of GWB against cardboard cutout Kerry seem not to have produced equivalent panic among the professional voices (though they rendered a lot of mere people quite despondent.)
BTW, I noticed that CLARK County Ohio, where Springfield is located, went 64%+ for Trump, and was 60%+ for him in 2020. So if the press who descended on it in the aftermath of the “my god, they’re eating pets” brouhaha really couldn’t find anyone who saw the Haitians as anything other than an unmixed blessing I suspect they weren’t looking very hard.
Basically, there were no national press who went to investigate. They just re-printed statements from the governor and some police. Stenographers all.
Re: Boeing
Ortberg taps Mulally, Conner about Boeing’s recovery
https://leehamnews.com/2024/11/09/ortberg-taps-mulally-connor-about-boeings-recovery/#more-45711
Bring back Alan? Very smart move, just having Alan walk thru the factories would seriously improve moral. Alan had a saying – Go ugly early – by which he meant, if you’re having problems, speak up, yell, scream, but don’t just pretend/lie about your situation and assume everything will magically get better. Don’t put off addressing the problem and asking for help.
Of course, the way to get ahead at Boeing today is to never have any problems, everything’s going great! Do whatever it takes to get that bonus.
> Alan Mulally
So why not give him a position with real authority?
If Cheney received a heart transplant from a peace activist, would his body reject it?
I heard that Cheney tried to have an a** h*** transplant but that the a** h*** rejected him.
RE: Sentinel Intelligence
I am one of those “chronically hypervigilant” types. So I just want to let people know:
SOMETHING’S OFF!
Okay, now you can prepare…
‘Brian Stelter
@brianstelter
“It wasn’t the economy,” @mtomasky
says. “It wasn’t inflation, or anything else. It was how people perceive those things, which points to one overpowering answer” — the right-wing media.’
Can you picture Brian Stelter in a supermarket trying to shop? No, I can’t either. Someone one should tell Brian that this was a case of perception being the reality.
Rev,
I can totally picture it; He gets his cart,
walks the isles, puts whatever catches
his eye in the cart, and heads to checkout
without ever noticing the posted price
for any item. At checkout, he sticks his
debit card in the reader, and may or may
not glance at the total on the receipt as
he tucks it away.
J.
He doesn’t have people for that?
re: Taibbi asking teachers for info on DOE
“Thanks so much to all the teachers who wrote in today in response to a query about the possible dissolution of the DOE. If you haven’t heard from me yet, apologies, I’m still making my way through the replies. I’ve probably learned more in one day about problems in the classroom today than in the rest of my life combined. Man, what a mess. Thanks again, and I’ll still be replying in the next days, if that’s okay.”
GOP projected to retain the House:
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4974235-house-republicans-control-majority/
Bummer. I was really looking forward to Mike Johnson getting canned.
If that actually happens it’ll demonstrate that Republicans actually govern. And understand exercising power. For better or worse.
It will be a narrow majority and M T-G is still lurking, waiting to unleash her unique brand-o-crazy.
We’ll see how things go.
I failed to add that some House Republicans are being considered for Trump administration positions. Thomas Massie is one, and Elyse Stefanik is another. They may be in safe districts, but there will still be temporary vacancies while special elections are held.
So the situation may be more fluid than we think.
Yes, it seems as though either there will be a bunch of Republican vacancies in Congress in January, or there will be a bunch of cabinet vacancies on Day 1 when the Trump administration is supposed to be doing all those things. Maybe the Republicans can pass rules to make it work, but it will be an interesting story either way.
MTG’s crazy may be her professional wrestling character. Almost a year ago on Atlanta area NPR a female(?) Atlanta Journal Constitution reporter mentioned MTG can act like an informed rational adult if no cameras are around, and I didn’t get the feeling the reporter was an R voter. The two seemed to have had several discussions in the past.
Since it was radio I couldn’t see if the NPR people made faces like they were sucking lemons. /s
> MTG’s crazy may be her professional wrestling character
Every so often MTG will say something quite sensible, and then a toad will hop out of her mouth.
Decision Desk HQ projects Republicans will retain US House majority Reuters
Nooners won’t be happy about that. Neither am I. I want checks, in general, always.
In pop culture Turns out heart tissue cells remember quite a lot…
A favorite movie is Return To Me, the only movie Bonnie Hunt directed, cheezeball but I really liked it, the transplanted heart remembers whom it loved (awww!)……
Bonnie Hunt is in a new live action movie Red One, her first live action movie in years, love her.
re: new NATO v. RU study
GREENPEACE Germany published a big study yesterday – I haven´t found an English version yet – about how NATO is sooooo superior to RU.
Granted any argument to stop this madness I am supportive of.
However if the arguments laid out in terms of military scholarship are delusional and incompetent I can´t help, I start to revolt.
It´s brand new so I haven´t gone through yet. But on page 37 they seriously argue that RU has no ability to project might based on SYRIA?! Comparing to NATO and ISRAEL which allegedly have lost noone or very little in the same theatre, And they dare compare THAT to now? Are these people from this planet?
For German-speakers, the link:
Greenpeace study: NATO outperforms Russia militarily
Paradigm shift in security strategy necessary
https://presseportal.greenpeace.de/243451-greenpeace-studie-nato-ubertrifft-russland-militarisch
or
https://www.greenpeace.de/publikationen/wann-ist-genug-genug
Actually this proves the possible complete uselessness of the entire GREENPEACE study pretty well. See page 37 end paragraph (but yes, there are 63 more pages):
“(…)In the case of the land forces, too, in addition to the shortage of supplies, it has become clear that the operational capability and combat readiness of the Russian units are not comparable with those of the NATO forces. In Ukraine, the Russian troops are struggling with desertion. Even well-equipped units are being wiped out due to a lack of support from other branches of the armed forces. Russia is increasingly having to set up new, undermanned units that are also equipped with outdated weapons systems. In contrast, the NATO states have been carrying out several military operations abroad simultaneously for many years – to varying degrees – without significant losses and without the further modernization of the armed forces coming to a standstill.(…)”
I mean – what on Earth is this supposed to be? I am seriously baffeld. And this piece of eminent garbage will now entertain the German antiwar circuit. Well, thank you very much, idiocracy.
Greenpeace Germany. How did it say a commenter here, UserFriendly if I recall correctly, when talking about the German Green Party? My ass is greener? Green Party my ass!?-The same applies to Greenpeace Germany. They are messing with the colours.
DemocratsEnDéshabillé
> … Maura Willing marveled about the party’s deep bench
Showing for the umpteenth-and-ninth time that Democrats are truly incapable of learning anything from their losses. Democrats are so high on their own family-blog supply that even after this catastrophic beat-down, they are failing to realize that they’ve lost their clientele. At this rate, Vance/Gabbard 2028 is gonna pull out an Obama2008-level electoral college victory.
What message are the likes of Newsom (billionaire), Pritzker (billionaire) and Khanna (billionaire-adjacent) going to offer outside the tribal-virtue-signaling that has been soundly rejected by voters this cycle? Whitmer couldn’t help carry her state for Harris. Buttigieg will have the millstones of his unremarkable tenure in the Biden administration around his neck. Fetterman and Shapiro lose credibility and votes on any ongoing support for genocide (dear $DEITY, I hope it’s not a main topic in four years). Wes Moore – who?! Which leaves us with Walz … who has a shot at being a transformative force, but he has to do an about-face on a couple issues, and be prepared to talk smack about the was he was used in 2024.
#ClassWarfare
From the
doomscrolltimeline …“Eric London provided a detailed analysis of the election, proving that Harris’s defeat was caused above all by the collapse of working class support. The main electoral base of the Democrats is the affluent middle class.”
Via X/Twitter
#MOARPostMortem
Ah yess, the celebrity obsession complex … I guess $20M out of $1B+ is still chump change to some.
#PopStarEndorsementsRUs (via X/Twitter)
> Buttigieg
We’re gonna have to vote for him because he’s gay, aren’t we.
Keep an eye out for Wes Moore. I can’t spell out his biographical timeline step by step, but it starts from his education, military service and serving on overseas tours of duty. Some finance industry roles afterwards.
https://governor.maryland.gov/leadership/pages/governor.aspx
https://wesmoore.com/about/
UFOs is not my thing (outside the movies).
But Kirn on the ATW show a couple of hours ago said that tomorrow or day after tomorrow there is a big UFO hearing in Congress with some bigwig Admiral as witness.
Patient readers, I was in a rush to get to my Goya post, and did not complete the Saruman metaphor (at “Lambert here”). For those who read it and were rightly puzzled, I revised it. My concerns, which are real, are much more clear.
The gray mist being the last vestiges of legacy-media credibility giving up the ghost — thanks! That did indeed clarify the metaphor for me.
Lambert, there was a commercial on the streaming service I had on, Paramount, for a CBS documentary about the influence of “Black TikTok”. I don’t know if it was completed before the election, but if so it probably doesn’t include that. It mentions various movements that started and/or were enhanced by voices on this social media outlet. So the influence is being recognized and not just for the election and cleaning tips.