2:00PM Water Cooler 11/29/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Readers, I hope you all had an excellent Thanksgivng and are looking forward to the weekend to come! –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge–West Pond. Queens, New York, United States.

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In Case You Might Miss…

1. Did it really take $500,000 to make Al Sharpton “friendly”?
2. Sanders on the Four Freedoms (and Norman Rockwell).
3. Another day, another Boeing airworthiness directive. ALso, COMAC.

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Transition

“The Local Sheriffs Gearing Up to Help Trump Carry Out Mass Deportations” [Wall Street Journal]. “Adding to the complexity, a patchwork of state laws means sheriffs in some blue states legally can’t cooperate with ICE, while those in some red states must, said Jonathan Thompson, the executive director of the nonpartisan National Sheriffs’ Association, whose members include about 70% of the country’s 3,081 sheriffs… Trump’s advisers intend to penalize so-called sanctuary cities by cutting off what could amount to billions of dollars in federal grants to them, according to people familiar with their plans.” During the Nullification Crisis, Andrew Jackson won, and John C. Calhoun lost. More: “Thompson said his group plans to meet soon with members of Trump’s transition team, hoping to learn more about the scope, cost and duration of his deportation plan. In Thompson’s view, it is clear the influx of migrants in recent years has ‘created an enormous amount of pressure on local law enforcement, state law enforcement agencies, across the country, not just along the border. It’s created havoc in many, many communities.’ He added state and local law enforcement, ‘and in particular sheriffs’ will be critical to Trump’s plans. Many conservative sheriffs across the U.S., from Texas to California to redder swaths of the northeast, now stand ready to be force multipliers for ICE and its 6,000 agents. Asked if he supports mass deportation, GOP Sheriff Richard Jones of Butler County, Ohio, replied: “Sure, I do. And so do the American people…. People are tired of this.'” • Comedy interlude.

“Florida Has a Weird Political Culture. It’s About to Take Over the White House” [Politico]. “No other state will have that level of concentrated influence in the next administration. With Florida personalities playing such a central role, it’s important to understand just what constitutes Florida political culture…. As much as any other state, Florida has been defined by its migrants and its immigrants — basically everyone is from somewhere else, be it from some other state or some other country….. And now, the rest of America could become a little more like Florida. Trump’s pick to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, former Florida Rep. Dave Weldon, is a vaccine safety skeptic; Rubio is a traditional hawk with a from-the-cradle hatred of communism but a desire to negotiate a quick end to the Ukraine war; Bondi wants to go after ‘bad prosecutors’ much like DeSantis did with two state attorneys. They have the potential to being much more than Florida vibes to the country and could reshape the country in the image of the Sunshine State.” • My impression of DeSantis is that he wasn’t ready for the national stage (even if he had not been confronting the Colossus of Mar-a-Lago). So I wonder if these Florida players will do better than he did (Susie Wiles, meanwhile, is ready for the national backstage.

2024 Post Mortem

“Al Sharpton’s acceptance of Kamala Harris campaign’s $500K donation a ‘bridge too far’ for MSNBC colleagues” [New York Post]. “Harris sat down for a friendly interview on Oct. 20 with Sharpton, an open supporter of Harris and the Democratic Party. Following Harris’ defeat by former President Donald Trump, FEC filings revealed the Harris campaign gave two $250,000 donations to Sharpton’s nonprofit organization in September and October. However, the MSNBC weekend host did not disclose to viewers the apparent conflict of interest before or after the interview. Neither did he disclose the donations to his bosses at the network, according to the Free Beacon.” • What.

The #Resistance

“Blue States Will Find Fighting Trump Is No Simple Proposition” [Governing]. “Can Newsom and the other Democratic governors who have vowed to join him really Trump-proof their states? If they fail, would that mean a huge crack in the foundation of federalism? And if they succeed, just how united would the United States be?.. Not all Democratic governors have agreed on the pitched-battle strategy. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has deliberately stood back from Newsom’s confrontational approach and said she wanted to find ‘some shared priorities’ with Trump [who is the head of a fascist movement, let us remember] “We’ve worked with a Trump administration before,” she said, and thought they’d figure out how to do it again. Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor who nearly became Kamala Harris’ running mate, said— twice — in his post-election statement that he ‘wanted to get things done.'” And: “[T]here’s a limit to how effectively they can resist Trump’s policies. If as president Trump decided to sit on disaster aid or refuse to approve waivers for environmental or health-care plans, Democratic governors could find themselves long on rhetoric but short on results. And if the states decide to fight Trump in court, as California often did successfully in the first Trump administration, the battle will be much harder this time. The first time around, California successfully fought many of its judicial battles in the federal Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. Trump, however, named 10 of the 29 judges on the circuit. That means California will now have to pick its battles much more carefully, with an eye especially on which cases to file in which courts. Fully Trump-proofing their states, therefore, is more than Democratic governors can accomplish.”

“Why Didn’t They Riot?” [Tom Klingenstein]. “For many… the downbeat response to Trump’s victory seemed out of place, given the feverish severity of how Democrats had articulated the stakes of this election. In her final month… The surface explanation, of course, is that the Democrats didn’t really believe any of it… Even if the leadership of the Democratic Party and its surrogates in the media were simply generating outrage, millions of Americans in their audiences now believe, with conviction, that the long night of fascism has finally descended on America….. In short, we didn’t see post-election violence or mass protests because the scale of Trump’s victory meant that such rioting would appear — at least temporarily — as the angry self-indulgence of a minority that had been legitimately beaten at the ballot box. But the riots will come soon enough, and Antifa will menace the streets once again.” • Hmmm.

“Women engage in mass ‘primal scream’ in wake of Trump victory: ‘Release our pain'” [FOX}. “Remarkable footage shows Wisconsin women screaming in unison towards Lake Michigan in the wake of Vice President Harris’s Nov. 5 loss to President-elect Trump. The footage, which recently went viral on social media, was originally posted by a Facebook user named Tamara Gibbs. The event took place at Klode Park in Whitefish Bay on Nov. 9. The extraordinary video shows around two dozen adult women screeching at the water. The screams eventually reach a crescendo, as video shows the shrieks getting gradually louder and louder until the group stopped…. ‘We need to start organizing… We have the opportunity to, in-state, in two years, take back the legislature,’ one woman said to roaring applause.” • Oh.

Realignment and Legitimacy

The “Four Freedoms” might be a good place to start, but Sanders has form; he is not the one to do the starting (not that I see anybody else):

This time of year, I am always reminded of the Thanksgiving scene painted by one of my favorite artists, Norman Rockwell. Many people don’t know this, but Rockwell actually lived for a time in Arlington, Vermont, and painted some of his most well-known pieces there, including his… pic.twitter.com/SpJjmFnlDL

— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) November 28, 2024

If we must have fours, I prefer the Bearded One’s, though I admit they are negatives (yin) to FDR’s positives (yang). Good stuff, but as I said….

How come we don't talk about class in America?

Because when you talk about class, you risk working people coming together and taking back power from the top 1% of our society. pic.twitter.com/jPcfyHfHIt

— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) November 27, 2024

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Maskstravaganza

“Testing and Masking Policies and Hospital-Onset Respiratory Viral Infections” [JAMA]. “Most hospitals have stopped testing all patients for SARS-CoV-2 upon admission and requiring masking. Ten hospitals in the Mass General Brigham hospital system ended both these precautions simultaneously in May 2023 but restarted masking for health care workers in January 2024 during a winter respiratory viral surge…. In this study, stopping universal masking and SARS-CoV-2 testing was associated with a significant increase in hospital-onset respiratory viral infections relative to community infections. Restarting the masking of health care workers was associated with a significant decrease.” And: “Nosocomial respiratory viral infections remain associated with increased length of stay and higher mortality in hospitalized populations.” • Increased length of stay = profit. Hilariously, Smile Nazi Erica Shenoy is Associate Chief of the Infection Control Unit at Mass General Brigham, and is fighting universal use of respirators in hospitals tooth and nail at HICPAC. One can only wonder what her motivation might be.

Sometimes speaking up helps:

Thanks 🙌 image changed with revision note 👉 https://t.co/TS2qTo43Ld pic.twitter.com/9eZrirFX0H

— News Medical (@NewsMedical) May 28, 2024

Hopefully this issue landed on the Art Director’s desk, and policy was changed. And Kudos to @NewsMedical.

Immune Dysregulation

“The identification of a SARs-CoV2 S1 protein derived peptide with super-antigen-like stimulatory properties on T-cells” (preprint) [bioRxiv]. From the Abstract: “Severe COVID-19 can trigger a cytokine storm, leading to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) with similarities to superantigen-induced toxic shock syndrome. An outstanding question is whether SARS-CoV-2 protein sequences can directly induce inflammatory responses. In this study, we identify a region in the SARS-CoV-2 S1 spike protein with sequence homology to bacterial super-antigens (termed P3)…. In vivo experiments in mice revealed that the administration of P3 led to a significant upregulation of proinflammatory cytokines IL-1β, IL-6, and TNF-α. While the clinical significance of P3 in COVID-19 remains unclear, its homology to other mammalian proteins suggests a potential role for this peptide family in human inflammation and autoimmunity.” • Leonardi (see here) does a happy dance:

The superantigen has been found despite many attempts to delegitimize the hypothesis and disparage me.

I will be going around to collect dues in an arrogant and vindicated manner

The evidence was there immunologically of a super antigenic effect, and the people who denied it… https://t.co/ZFmGD1AKmD pic.twitter.com/0d9osdsQkE

— AJ Leonardi, MBBS, PhD (@fitterhappierAJ) November 28, 2024

Others resist:

Testing and Tracking: Wastewater

I assume the dairies are dumping infected milk into the sewers, under cover of darkness?

Just a mild coincidence that the largest Raw Milk dairy, @Raw_Farm, in the world is having multiple recalls, @RickABright @KinCONN @0bFuSc8 at the same time waste water is popping off.

Move along, folks. https://t.co/MMLhMPYxPc pic.twitter.com/wOXWSxysS2

— Lazarus Long (@LazarusLong13) November 28, 2024

Note that would be the optimistic scenario….

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: Even though the Covid numbers seem low, please remember that the data is not nearly as good as it once was, that it lags, and that the downside risks of catching Covid are considerable. For those who have developed their own personal protocols, I wouldn’t relax them. Maybe next year.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC November 18	Last week[2] CDC (until next week):
Variants [3] CDC November 23	Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 16
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data November 27:	★ National [6] CDC November 28:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens November 25:	★ Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 23:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC November 4:	Variants[10] CDC November 4:
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 2:	Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 2:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Good news!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* still popular. XEC has entered the chat. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) Down.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Actually improved; it’s now one of the few charts to show the entire course of the pandemic to the present day.

[7] (Walgreens) Down.

[8] (Cleveland) Down.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Now XEC.

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today.

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Manufacturing: “FAA Calls For Check Of Drag Brace Lower Lock Link On Boeing 787 Landing Gear” [Simple FLying]. “The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has warned that a specific inspection process was not completed during the manufacturing process of the drag brace lower lock link assemblies for the Boeing 787’s main landing gear (MLG), mandating operators to either check maintenance records or inspect whether certain drag brace lower links were installed on the aircraft. The regulator issued the airworthiness directive (AD) despite one airline [American] saying that a requirement bulletin (RB) was sufficient… According to the FAA, undetected cracks could lead to a fracture of the drag brace lower lock link assembly, potentially resulting in the MLG’s collapse and subsequent loss of directional control while the aircraft is on the ground. The regulator’s worst-case scenario pointed to a potential runway excursion and wing box fuel tank penetration.” • At some point, presumably, alll this will be cleaned up….

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s new CEO clips corporate jet trips in show of restraint” [Seattle Times]. “Ortberg’s edict has curtailed flights to Boeing’s major operations centers in Seattle (commercial planemaking); Washington (corporate headquarters, defense arm); and Dallas (services unit). The prior set-up made it easy for top executives to commute from afar. Former CEO Dave Calhoun flew in from homes in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and his senior leadership team was scattered in places like Connecticut and Toronto. Flights have fallen off to Charleston, South Carolina, and nearby Savannah, Georgia; White Plains, New York, close to Chief Financial Officer Brian West’s Connecticut home; and Toronto, where information technology head Susan Doniz is based. Calhoun, West and Doniz declined to comment for the story, a Boeing spokesperson said. While Ortberg, like his predecessors, must travel in a private jet, he is relocating to Seattle.” • “Must”?

Manufacturing: “‘Mayday!’: New details emerge after Boeing plane makes emergency landing at Mirabel airport” [CTV News]. “‘During deceleration after landing with the flaps retracted at Montreal-Mirabel airport, the left main landing gear collapsed until the left engine touched the ground. The aircraft continued on its engine-supported path until it came to a complete stop on the runway,’ the [federal Transportation Safety Board’s] summary of the incident stated. The agency said there was no fire but the plane sustained ‘significant damage.'” • On the bright side, a pretty robust airframe, it would seem.

Manufacturing: “Why Africa won’t shut the door on Boeing” [Times Aerospace]. “Production rates of the 737… have been capped by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) at 38 – the rate existing prior to the Alaska Airlines incident – until the FAA is satisfied that Boeing has got a grip of the situation. So, what does all this mean for African airlines? Probably less than in other regions of the world. Relatively few African carriers buy new aircraft direct from Boeing. Many tend to acquire second-hand machines… Will Boeing’s problems deter African airlines from placing future orders with the US manufacturer? Probably not; both Boeing and Airbus have huge order backlogs – place an order for a Boeing 737 or an Airbus A320neo today and you are unlikely to have it in service much before the end of the decade. African airlines that want to order from Boeing will probably take comfort from the fact that, by the time the new aircraft arrive, the company’s current problems will – hopefully – have been ironed out.”

Manufacturing: “COMAC: The quiet giant challenging the Airbus-Boeing duopoly” [Aerotime]. “COMAC (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China) was officially formed on May 11, 2008, the product of a joint effort from various Chinese companies and institutions: (Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), Aluminum Corporation of China, Baosteel, Sinochem, Shanghai Guosheng Corporation and the SASAC (which manages Air China, China’s flag carrier). COMAC is therefore more akin to a conglomerate, a la United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) in Russia, which in turn encompasses famous names such as Ilyushin, Tupolev or Sukhoi. As such, COMAC regroups all China’s aircraft manufacturing capacities through 13 different companies, military and civilian alike and is government-owned.” Concluding: “Now what’s next for COMAC? There’s no shortage of challenges awaiting the Chinese manufacturer. In the near-term future, COMAC will have to digest a steep learning curve on the supply-chain side of the manufacturing process to address demand and increase delivery rates…. [T]he commercial airplanes market has virtually shrunk to an Airbus/Boeing duopoly for the past 25 years with Embraer and ATR in a different league. Therefore, it can be said that COMAC is the first real challenger to the duopoly, a welcome new entrant that will push the European and US manufacturers to be more innovative.” • Hmm. No Chinese engines, I believe.

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 66 Greed (previous close: 65 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 60 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 29 at 11:29:59 AM ET.

Gallery

And now for something completely different:

Jean-Honoré Fragonard – The Swing pic.twitter.com/zrcoZuQLpd

— Art Gallery (@X_ArtGallery) November 29, 2024

News of the Wired

“Musk admits X throttles links as ‘news influencers’ take over” [WaPo]. “For social media platforms, suppressing links is seen as good business. Links are lifeblood for web publishers, and they can be handy for users who want to point each other to original sources, in-depth reporting or delightful content. Adding a link to a post also can be an indicator of credibility on social media – a sign that you aren’t just spouting off but have outside evidence to support your claims and are happy for your audience to check it out for themselves. But tech giants have come to see links as a drain on the bottom line, because they pull users’ valuable eyeballs away from the platform…. As traditional media that report the news have lost audience and stature, social media influencers who talk about the news have thrived, according to a recent nationally representative survey by Pew Research. The survey found that 1 in 5 Americans — and 37 percent of adults under 30 — say they regularly get news from influencers on social media. Some 85 percent of those influencers maintain a presence on X.” • Blogosphere about to stage a comeback? Even a fraction of 100 – 37 = 63% is a big market with a lot of room for small players…

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