2:00PM Water Cooler 11/4/2024

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1. Lee November 4, 2024 at 2:09 pm

   If Watercooler could speak it might at this moment pose this question.
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 4, 2024 at 3:16 pm

      You can always play the bird songs and enjoy the plant until the middle of the sandwich arrives.
2. flora November 4, 2024 at 2:14 pm

   re: “Yes, I will do an Election Eve live blog tomorrow! –lambert”

   Time travel at NC? / ;)
   1. nippersmom November 4, 2024 at 2:18 pm

      I was wondering about that, too. I’m sure he probably meant an election night live blog, but it did give me a mild chuckle.
   2. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 4, 2024 at 3:16 pm

      Eve -> Night, sorry.

      Doors will open at 8:00PM (and man, do I hate the time change).
      1. mrsyk November 4, 2024 at 9:08 pm

         Bingo cards! I’m thinking “mail truck full of unprocessed mail-in ballots discovered in Philly” for the win.
         1. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 5, 2024 at 4:12 am

            > Bingo cards!

            Indeed. Drinking games might be dangerous though….
3. outside observer November 4, 2024 at 2:40 pm

   If people like that lady are involved in validating our election, there’s no chance it will be fair.
   1. bob November 4, 2024 at 2:50 pm

      Don’t worry, the cons are all trying to cancel her
   2. JBird4049 November 4, 2024 at 2:50 pm

      Her body language was a bit annoying being as it was schoolmarmish anger, arrogance, and contempt. Even if I had agreed with her, how she was treating the other woman was insulting.
      1. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 4, 2024 at 3:21 pm

         > Her body language was a bit annoying being as it was schoolmarmish anger, arrogance, and contempt.

         A Weberian ideal type, as I keep saying.

         Adding, representative of her class. Hence discovering and dogpiling the individual isn’t useful, except insofar as it shows what her connections are.
   3. IM Doc November 4, 2024 at 2:58 pm

      As I was saying this AM – this country is really struggling right now with an overabundance of Cluster B psychiatric disorders – basically – borderline, narcissistic and histrionic are the main ones involved. This is now an epidemic – 30 years ago, all of these were very very rare and hardly ever played out in public like this. Multiple studies I have read about this and I am sure there are very detailed books on the way, but it is a plague. Theories abound from the relative permissiveness of the 1970s, the huge increase in sexual abuse in the 1970s all the way to social media.

      At this point, who knows? – But it is becoming a real problem. And this lady is an obvious classic case. Much more common on the blue side of things – and this kind of thing is what I have been seeing in my office – I am deeply troubled about how this is all going down no matter who wins tomorrrow.
      1. Lee November 4, 2024 at 4:09 pm

         “30 years ago, all of these were very very rare and hardly ever played out in public like this.”

         Yeah, but 40 to 50 years ago when I was coming of age, things got pretty hot and heavy: what with Vietnam war,the draft, assassinations of prominent politicians and activists, city-burning riots, mass demonstrations and the like. Plus I was raised by parents who made it through the Great Depression and WW2. Maybe that’s why I’m observing the current electoral Sturm und Drang with a degree of fatalistic equanimity that some of my TDS infected friends find unsettling. Not that there isn’t real desperation out there. It’s just that most of it so far as the MSM is concerned is of the quiet sort.
         1. JBird4049 November 4, 2024 at 4:43 pm

            >>>It’s just that most of it so far as the MSM is concerned is of the quiet sort.

            Most of the desperation is of quiet dying, which is easily ignored by pointing the cameras and microphones away from the growing number of American slums and shantytowns and their increasing number of inhabitants.
         2. Lee November 4, 2024 at 5:58 pm

            Forgot to mention the height of the cold war and the Cuban missile crisis. Fun times.
      2. outside observer November 4, 2024 at 4:10 pm

         You’re the doc, but I’m not sure I buy this is a mental disorder. Seems to be more a function of propaganda exposure. I have to believe people want to do the right thing. Each side is convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt they are dealing with the devil himself and behave accordingly. The psyops coordinators are the only winners.
         1. Steve H. November 4, 2024 at 6:47 pm

            John Robb provides a plausible viewpoint of swarm dynamics. Here‘s an excellent recent interview. I suggest starting at minute 31, on Pattern Matching.
            1. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 5, 2024 at 4:31 am

               > John Robb provides a plausible viewpoint of swarm dynamics.

               At that link, I can’t figure out how to make it show the timestamps. Here’s the YouTube version:

               https://youtu.be/kZGbar9eFH4?si=cLTZ6NwKtt_TL_Jf
         2. Lefty Godot November 4, 2024 at 7:18 pm

            Rather than a mental disorder, we should see it as a cultural pathology. Which happens to be our largest export these days.
            1. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 5, 2024 at 4:15 am

               > Rather than a mental disorder, we should see it as a cultural pathology

               The transition between the two, conceptually and “in reality” is not well understood.
      3. ChrisFromGA November 4, 2024 at 4:43 pm

         Thanks, IMDoc for giving clinical validation to what I’ve been instinctively sensing.

         I was driving back home from the airport here in Atlanta early this morning, around 6AM. That’s just before the rush hour insanity begins, and it was still dark, with traffic building but not yet gridlocked. On the shuttle from the airport to my car, I heard one other motorist honking madly at it like it was NYC rush-hour traffic at mid-day. I remarked to the driver that people seem to be unusually angry these days, but at that hour, when most folks are sleeping, it was still a shocker. Then, driving home, on the interstate there was a truck pulling a trailer with heavy equipment that was racing past me, and I saw it almost rear end another pickup in front of it in the left-hand lane. I actually braked (I was in the lane to the right maybe 5-6 car lengths behind) and braced myself because I thought this nutcase was going to cause a massive high speed collision, which at that speed and with the number of vehicles on the road probably would have killed somebody.

         Now, this is Atlanta, but I’ve never seen such behavior at a time when the roads are mostly clear.

         I think staying home for the next 36-48 hours would be a good idea.
         1. aletheia33 November 4, 2024 at 7:36 pm

            a bit of traffic anecdata:

            a friend in boston while walking and on the phone with me exclaimed as he watched a car pass a schoolbus that had stopped.

            he then told me that this has been happening more and more. someone did a study, he said, and found 1,000 incidents (i’m not sure if just in boston or where else) within a recent timeframe.

            he had to explain to me: this is people actually passing a schoolbus that is stopped to unload or load children with its rear-end stop sign and red lights fully employed.

            first time i’ve ever heard of such a thing. boston drivers are notoriously bad, but not, in my memory, this bad.

            whether it’s covid stupid or rage stupid, i admit to being shocked.

            sorry i don’t have more exact info on the “research” my friend mentioned; i’ve not tried to locate that info.
            1. ChrisFromGA November 4, 2024 at 8:51 pm

               My feeling is that people are “rage driving.”

               And pursuant to IMDoc’s original comment, that shows narcissistic behavior – whatever they’re angry about, they don’t have the right to take it out on random strangers. Not to mention the fact that driving 80mph while hauling a trailer with multiple heavy diggers is a serious responsibility and should be taken as such. If I were I cop I would have pulled him over and arrested him for reckless driving.
         2. hk November 5, 2024 at 4:10 am

            I also suspect truck drivers are much less experienced now. I’ve seen far more truck drivers driving big trucks lime passenger cars, as in aggressively try to change lanes into tiny spaces or brake suddenly. I’d heard that Covid was not kind to truck drivers. These on top of other issues.
      4. Bazarov November 4, 2024 at 4:54 pm

         I don’t know, IM Doc, when I’m overseas, I see people vociferously arguing, worse than the exchange in that video. As a young man in Italy, for instance, I witnessed public outbursts that were totally shocking to me as an Anglo. People accosting each other, gesticulating, speaking incredibly fast and stridently on topics I could not follow, though the gist was full of insults. No one bat an eye! It just kind of fizzled out. However, not all of these experience were in the argumentative mode.

         In Rome a very beautiful woman, one of the most beautiful I’ve ever seen, was walking with her luggage on her way to her terminal. Several men burst out very, very loudly–basically shouting–‘Bella! Bella!” and pounding their chests. The men crowded after her, and of course, the woman did not even glance at them. They were nothing to her. It was remarkable.

         In the United States, these men would’ve been video taped and pilloried as creeps and predators in waiting. Perhaps someone would claim they have a personality disorder.

         Passionate argument in the public sphere is good. I hope our culture trends more that way. People should be frank, and we are not emotionless robots. Let 100 Karens Bloom!
         1. lyman alpha blob November 4, 2024 at 5:47 pm

            When I worked in a Greek restaurant, the owner and his best friend who was also a native Greek would be in the back arguing loudly enough for the whole front of the house to hear. Customers would ask if there was a fight about to break out and I’d tell them no, it was just the owner and his buddy chatting, albeit at high volume.

            When I see Greeks talk like that, I’m not worried. When your average USian does it though, there might be a screw or two loose, as with the crazy DoD lady in the video above.
            1. Thomas The Obscure November 4, 2024 at 9:45 pm

               I learnt this while working as a barista with a bunch of Greeks and some Italians while serving plenty of male Greek retirees. At first I took the blow-ups personally, but eventually really came to enjoy the fiery argumentative explosions as there were never any grudges held (if anything, it actually bonded friendships) and they were pragmatically cathartic. The Anglo temperament instead holds all the annoyances inside forming resentments and neuroses until actual violent explosions. That Mediterranean temper actually often serves to stop an escalation of any circle of violence (in the Girard sense) and has a ludic quality that northern Europeans and the Anglo colonial diaspora do not much understand. In a later job I had a Cyprian-Greek boss who was rather proud of our argumentative, heated relationship!

               As to IM Doc’s personality disorder observation, formerly having house-shared with many people born post 90s as well as having been involved in the culture industry and leftist politics, there has definitely been a notable (for those paying attention) increase in these self-toward-the-social oriented disorders. The increasing liberal-capitalist emphasis on the individual-as-identity, often seeming based on identity both reified into a commodity, as well as the social media, highly curated avatar self-presentation being chosen as the ‘who I really am’ over the subject as defined amongst the corporeally socialised, uncontrollable but allowable impressions others have of them (Levinas’ model of social responsibility), seems to be the present social and psychical motor of many of these forms of neuroses.
               Perhaps the increasing turn toward a variety of ‘permissive parenting’ that I have also seen, where the child basically decides what they want to do/not do and is never reprimanded but rather has things explained to them in a way where they feel comfortable and never negated, has also increased narcissism in an already highly narcissistic culture but with a refusal to expose oneself (or one’s child) to anything that makes them feel uncomfortable and not in control. If one thinks through this trend via Melanie Klein or Freud, the issue becomes disturbingly clear.
               I am, btw, seeing this in a capital city in Australia in especially left oriented circles as well as PMC types.
               1. anahuna November 5, 2024 at 5:34 am

                  Thank you, Thomas, for the word “ludic” (which Autocorrect wants to snatch away). Exactly my experience with s friend whose background was Sicilian.
                  I used to find myself sitting at her kitchen table till 3 in the morning, arguing against my will and feeling drained and haggard, while she was invigorated. At some point I realized how much she was enjoying this and started playing with the possibilities of dramatic expression myself. What a difference!

                  Problem. If there is a problem, is that you can only play with someone else who understands the game, and that it is a game in the real sense, not a must-win competition.
         2. urdsama November 4, 2024 at 5:49 pm

            Not so sure about that.

            Each country/culture (I know it’s more complicated than that, but I want to cover both aspects) has its own norms. For example, what may be normal and acceptable in Italy is very unlikely to be taken well in Iceland.

            I think what IM Doc is getting at (and this is just a guess) is a change in norms, a change in what people expect. While these norms can change over time and be a normal change in culture, at other times it can be due to extreme stressors and radical imbalances coming from society.

            Sadly, based on the events of the past few years (and most likely even longer) I feel the latter is the source of current changes. From horrific events in Gaza to the tragic killing of P’nut and Fred, many people are finding themselves lost without any answers as to why this is happening, and why the US is supporting both.

            While “Karens” may be overly maligned, they are also not the sign of a healthy culture and society.
            1. Bazarov November 4, 2024 at 5:54 pm

               I hope our culture is changing! It’s better to get it out in the open rather than hide behind fake smiles and civility.

               To the dust of heap of history with that damn American church smile!
            2. Alan Sutton November 5, 2024 at 1:24 am

               Yes, the change in norms idea gets it. It’s not the same everywhere is it.

               Just a bit sad that there is a culture that is so polite and repressed (not Japan, by the way!) that when people see this behaviour it has to be diagnosed as some sort of psychiatric disorder. And, in a country that prides itself on being the most free of all.

               Very weird. It just shows that “freedom” in America is relative and highly specific to certain, marginal concepts (like gun ownership).

               For everything else, socially, America looks like a highly regulated society from where I sit. Well, where I used to sit. Where I sit now in Australia is even worse.
         3. Bsn November 4, 2024 at 6:23 pm

            Culture does matter quite a lot, but can change. Living in Europe for years (sono Americano) I learned that they love to argue, and loudly. They’ll pound the table and get real assertive. Then, 10 minutes later, offer you a beer and all is good. Here, people will argue a bit, then get huffy and either leave or hunker away. But ….. we keep the resentment going. If you loose, or even win an argument here in USA, you might as well consider that you just lost a friend. Very simplistic.
         4. NYMutza November 4, 2024 at 6:58 pm

            I agree with you. Few things make one feel alive better than a passionate exchange of thoughts and ideas. It should be okay to express anger. Emotions should not be suppressed. As you say, we aren’t robots.
      5. aleph_0 November 4, 2024 at 7:06 pm

         The internet was a mistake.

         Well, except for the cat pics.
         (Half joking, but not about the cat pics. Those are amazing.)
      6. Pilar November 4, 2024 at 7:37 pm

         This is probably a solid 40% of people in the DMV area at this moment. I am not voting but actually hoping that Harris wins because I won’t be able to deal with the psychotic behavior I’ve viewed in the people around me who all work in DC media and the government. They seem to view this election as a referendum on how they have spent their entire life. It is truly frightening speaking to some of these people. I am trying to teach my son on how to lose with grace, humility and composure but it’s difficult living in this environment.
         1. Michaelmas November 4, 2024 at 9:18 pm

            Pilar: I won’t be able to deal with the psychotic behavior I’ve viewed in the people around me who all work in DC media and the government. They seem to view this election as a referendum on how they have spent their entire life.

            It is, essentially.

            Which means that even if they and TPTB manages to leverage Harris into the White House this time, all the anger and resistance to what they have done to the US in the last quarter-century from the American population at large will not go away.

            To the contrary.
            1. Pilar November 5, 2024 at 10:40 am

               Very true, I’m not sure what will come next.
         2. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 5, 2024 at 5:06 am

            > They seem to view this election as a referendum on how they have spent their entire life. I

            This is very acute and I’m sure you are right. The “35 year national security expert” lady in pink certainly thought so. And no wonder they’re out of their minds. From Daniel 5:25-28:

            25 “This is the inscription that was written:

            mene, mene, tekel, parsin

            26 “Here is what these words mean:

            Mene[a]: God has numbered the days of your reign and brought it to an end.

            27 Tekel[b]: You have been weighed on the scales and found wanting.

            28 Peres[c]: Your kingdom is divided and given to the Medes and Persians

            (This is the Bible passage from which the catchphrase “handwriting on the walls” comes.

            Take the lady in pink — please! Her 35 years have seen nothing but debacle after debacle.
            1. Pilar November 5, 2024 at 10:39 am

               Very interesting, I like the image of the scales. All these people think they are doing the right thing which is scary. I don’t mind people feeling like a do-gooder but they really do think other people are trash and low information. And the Trump thing – I’ll give you an example. I used to work as a contractor with a federal agency. When Trump won in 2016, the agency’s DC HQ refused to hang up his photo in the security clearance area as is customary and kept Obama’s pic up for the entire four years. They also began hanging up signs around the office advising people they should feel free to whistleblow! This from an agency that handles some degree of intelligence. I don’t know what danger they thought Trump represented but it did not seem to gel with reality to me. I’ve also worked in media in DC for years, not editorially thank god and the norms towards objectivity have gone out the window. I was even interviewed once by a someone at a European news org who had a portrait of Hillary Clinton above her desk. It is very troubling. On the face of it, I believe what these people all value I think — but now I’m not so sure what they value.
      7. Yves Smith November 5, 2024 at 12:28 am

         There has been a marked change in norms.

         When I was a young, a big priority of therapy (and this extended into quasi-therapeutic exercises like New Age groups) was to get patients/participants to own that their emotional reactions to triggers were their “stuff” as in their problem. This is not unlike Stoic teaching.

         The sanctification of the idea of microaggression means if you react, it’t the other person’s fault. This legitimates trying to force the other person to change behavior.
   4. Duke of Prunes November 4, 2024 at 3:26 pm

      But there was a nice cybersecurity lady on 60 minutes last night that assured us that our elections are most definitely free and fair, and the main problem is the doubt being seeded by Russian, Iranian and NK disinformation. At least I’m guessing that was what she said based on the intro… I couldn’t stomach actually watching it.
      1. Randall Flagg November 4, 2024 at 4:03 pm

         Don’t worry, if you listen to NPR, any if their programs today, it was all , Russia, Iran and China meddling in our elections. To Trump’s advantage of course. Except one expert did say that those bad actors were not necessarily working in favor of one sort or the other, they just want to sow distrust in our institutions.
         1. WJ November 4, 2024 at 11:08 pm

            Sponsored by AIPAC
         2. Cat Burglar November 5, 2024 at 12:01 am

            Olga Belogolova of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies was a discussant in a 1A roundtable today about foreign meddling; she used to work for Meta during the Internet Research Agency hulabaloo. She is concerned about foreign “threat actors.” Her professional qualification as an expert on disinformation seems to be prior experience as a journalist.

            Listening required a great suspension of disbelief if you can remember the Gulf of Tonkin incident or Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction. These people think that the disinformation threats are only from foreign governments or actors.
            1. Alan Sutton November 5, 2024 at 1:42 am

               I have never hear the word “discussant” before.

               Did you invent it? Not sure I like it that much. Another noun being turned into a verb to abbreviate.

               Why not a “participant in the discussion”, “panel member” etc.

               Just being pedantic.
               1. Acacia November 5, 2024 at 1:56 am

                  It’s used in academia all the time.
               2. hk November 5, 2024 at 4:14 am

                  Panelists have their own presentations. Discussants comment on their presentations. That’s the usual routine at academic conferences.
      2. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 4, 2024 at 4:03 pm

         > But there was a nice cybersecurity lady on 60 minutes last night

         Does that lady have a name? I did some searching on CBS 60 minutes and can’t find anything. Readers?
         1. mrsyk November 4, 2024 at 5:37 pm

            Perhaps Gabriel Sterling, Robert Gabriel Sterling is an American politician and elections official from the state of Georgia. He is the chief operating officer in the office of the Georgia Secretary of State. One might mistake gender here on a quick glance. I didn’t have the stomach to watch much.
         2. Duke of Prunes November 4, 2024 at 6:58 pm

            I went looking for the video, and i guess it wasn’t 60 minutes. Not sure where i saw it. Maybe i confused an “intro” for a short segment on the news. Hope I didn’t send anyone on a wild goose chase, and I will keep an eye out for it
      3. lyman alpha blob November 4, 2024 at 4:30 pm

         Does the 60 minutes lady not remember Bush v Gore? Or did the Russians infiltrate the Supreme Court back then?

         Really getting tired of this idea that USians can’t think for themselves.
   5. Glen November 4, 2024 at 4:02 pm

      If we’re talking about the 35 year national security expert, may I point out that we were WAY more secure 35 years ago. This is not exactly a track record I would want to parade around as success:

      Living Paycheck To Paycheck Statistics 2024
      https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/living-paycheck-to-paycheck-statistics-2024/

      A 2023 survey conducted by Payroll.org highlighted that 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, a 6% increase from the previous year. In other words, more than three-quarters of Americans struggle to save or invest after paying for their monthly expenses.

      Plus, with regards to national security and war, with the NYT finally acknowledging that things are NOT going well in Ukraine, and the increasing possibility that Israel gets solidly thumped by Iran, we’re not looking too well in what was supposedly her wheel house.

      What has she got to brag about? Being handed a world empire and [family blogging] it into the ground in record time? Really not something I would brag about.
4. schmoe November 4, 2024 at 2:58 pm

   One candidate endorsed by Niki Haley and the other by Liz Cheney. ‘Nuf said.
5. kareninca November 4, 2024 at 3:02 pm

   I am going crazy trying to understand where the Palo Alto area wastewater H5/avian virus is coming from: https://data.wastewaterscan.org/tracker?charts=Ci4QASABSABSBjM3NDMwYVIGMjU0ODE5WgdJbmZBX0g1eKkBigEGZjhkNjc5wAEB&selectedChartId=f8d679

   If you look at the bottom of the page you’ll see that it is something new. There was a tiny blip in October, and now there is an insanely huge surge (in September there was also a huge out of season Influenza A surge; it is not clear if that was bird flu; I’m not sure the were specifically testing for it then). Is it from birds pooping into the reservoirs? Is it somehow from the cows? How could it be from the cows???? Is it from people from who have consumed milk and yogurt? But people in Palo Alto wouldn’t be eating more than people elsewhere; if anything there would have more vegans (though not many). Could it have anything to do with covid vaccination (it’s almost unviversal here). It is crazy high in Turlock, too, but they have cows. It is so confusing.
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 4, 2024 at 3:24 pm

      > I am going crazy trying to understand where the Palo Alto area wastewater H5/avian virus is coming from:

      Thank you for working on this. Please keep us posted.

      I don’t know enough about how material other than that flushed from toilets gets into wastewater (which is supposed to be separate from stormwater, no?) Lagoons? An agricultural college?
   2. debug November 4, 2024 at 4:32 pm

      Thank you kareninca.

      You may want to check the bird migration maps to see if they correlate with the wastewater data for your area. Here is the main map:

      https://birdcast.info/migration-tools/live-migration-maps/

      If you want to drill down to individual counties, use the dashboard:

      https://dashboard.birdcast.info/

      Once you have selected your county or state, you can choose previous dates and see if the migratory bird traffic correlates. There might be a lag time after a migration peak before the effects show up, so check for heavy migration a week or so before a wastewater peak.

      Wastewater might also be influenced by rain/runoff which then washes accumulated bird droppings into storm drains, etc. The September peak may be the result of heavy bird migration followed by significant rain. Just a thought…
      1. Hector November 4, 2024 at 5:27 pm

         Another detail to consider is if the Palo Alto waste water system is combined, that is the storm water and the sewer system are combined and all runoff is sent to the waste water treatment plant.

         This webpage makes me think that it is not, so unless the migratory birds are using the toilet, the only source is human: https://www.cityofpaloalto.org/Departments/Public-Works/Watershed-Protection/Stormwater-Home-Page
         1. debug November 4, 2024 at 10:33 pm

            Thanks Hector

            You point out above that wastewater and stormwater are theoretically separate in Palo Alto. Good point. Good research.

            In theory, practice and theory are the same, but in practice they are different. Large scale water drainage systems can not be counted on to be closed systems. Inevitably cracks accumulate in underground systems of pipes. Rainwater/groundwater can seep in through cracks or compromised joints in sewer pipes. In the larger pipes this may not be noticed at all until the pipe has a catastrophic failure or is replaced on what is usually a multi-decadal schedule. The smaller pipes of the individual homeowner parts of the sewer system are most likely to be compromised and are closest to the surface.

            The older the neighborhood, the more likely there will be compromised sewer pipes underneath the yards. They run from slightly below foundation level and slope downward toward the main neighborhood pipes. They may be compromised if they have not been replaced in decades. Any pipe over fifty years old that hasn’t been replaced is likely compromised by tree roots or shifting ground or minor earthquake(s), etc., etc., etc.

            I don’t think we can assume that some runoff water isn’t getting into the wastewater/sewer system.
      2. Lee November 4, 2024 at 5:41 pm

         Just a little rain so far. As for birds passing through, it’s a good time for raptor fans to go to Hawk Hill.
         1. Alan Sutton November 5, 2024 at 1:49 am

            Thanks Lee,

            I would love to see that.
      3. kareninca November 4, 2024 at 5:42 pm

         That is an interesting possibility. But we haven’t had any rain yet this year; the rains will be starting soon but we’ve had none yet, just a very light misting.
         1. debug November 4, 2024 at 10:59 pm

            We don’t know if there is a correlation, but IF there were a correlation between migratory bird statistics and H5N1 wastewater levels, one might hypothesize the following:

            If it is dry and there has been no rain, then yards are being watered. In these conditions, migratory songbirds will go to the water — these yards. Water applied to these yards percolates down into cracked or compromised sewage lines beneath the lawns, ending up in the wastewater system.

            See my above reply to Hector.

            (This isn’t a hill I’m gonna defend or die on, just pure speculation.)
      4. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 5, 2024 at 4:08 am

         > bird migration maps

         It hasn’t occurred to me that bird songs in Water Cooler might be some sort of coded message from the future, sigh.
   3. Revenant November 4, 2024 at 5:12 pm

      My first guess would be from the birdlife that enjoys the South Bay marshes

      However, I just looked at the chart and on mobile the chart is binary, either detected or not detected with no scale. Somy guess is birdlife or infected humans but possibly in small numbers.
      1. kareninca November 4, 2024 at 5:47 pm

         On my laptop it does not look binary; it looks like a huge spike. I could be reading it wrong, of course.
      2. kareninca November 4, 2024 at 7:24 pm

         As far as the quantity goes, back in July there were three days on which they found H5 in the Palo Alto water. The unit on one day was 2.9, on another day 2.7 and on the other day 2.3 (rounded). There was one day in late September with 1.7.

         Now, in late October, we have a big fat line which represents Oct. 28th through 31st (it is confusing since it looks like November on the chart, but it is October).
         Oct. 28th: 6.1 units
         Oct. 29th: 20 units
         Oct. 30th: 11.5 units
         Oct. 31st: 41.55 units (that seems to the the last day of sampling listed)

         I don’t know what the units signify. One unit per bird dropping? One unit per digested cup of yogurt?
   4. NYMutza November 4, 2024 at 7:05 pm

      Feral cats cats can be carriers of the H5N1 virus. This isn’t getting the scrutiny it deserves.
      1. ambrit November 4, 2024 at 9:14 pm

         Which is an argument in favour of “culling” the feral cat population. (The local birds will thank you for it.)
   5. Greg Taylor November 4, 2024 at 11:47 pm

      Palo Alto imports nearly all lower-paid service workers from 50+ miles away daily. H5 might be coming from a group that is bussed in.
      1. kareninca November 5, 2024 at 2:57 am

         That is a very good point.
   6. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 5, 2024 at 4:12 am

      There are many raw milk places in Palo Alto.

      I’m wondering if maybe an entire truckload went bad and got dumped in a sewer in the dead of night? Maybe more than once?
6. Dr. John Carpenter November 4, 2024 at 3:03 pm

   Oh. Wow. Will.i.am. They’re really bringing out the big guns now. /sarc
   1. Christopher Smith November 4, 2024 at 3:12 pm

      2006 called, they want the second string from the Black Eyed Peas back.
   2. urdsama November 4, 2024 at 3:30 pm

      Reminds me of the scene in the final act of Leon where Gary Oldman’s character is freaking out about the deteriorating situation and tells his subordinate to get “EVERYONE!”.

      Definitely the energy the Dems are giving off right now, valid or not.
7. Mark Gisleson November 4, 2024 at 3:17 pm

   Biden won. He made it to the finish line still in office despite the most extraordinary litany of Executive branch crimes ever. Almost all the tin cans got kicked across the finish line.

   This is going to create a major mental health crisis. If Trump wins tomorrow, the headlines for the rest of this year will be about Ukraine’s collapse, Israel backing itself into a corner, Burisma scandal, Afghanistan withdrawl, COVID and Wuhan, the so-called COVID vax, the infant vax schedule, monkeypox, the Cheneys, govt obstruction of Congressional investigations, January 6 law enforcement embeds, Secret Service failures, lawyer-witness conflicts, Congressional sedition and fraud, etc, etc.

   Your candidate has lost and now everyone’s being indicted and OMG Trump is coming for us! No, Trump is just coming for the bad man who bites children. Orange man now good, biting man was always bad.
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 4, 2024 at 3:31 pm

      > despite the most extraordinary litany of Executive branch crimes ever.

      I have to disagree. Bush was worse (warrantless surveillance, torture, gaslighting us into Iraq, whacking a few million civilians when we were there, etc.).
      1. Skip Intro November 4, 2024 at 3:54 pm

         Don’t count Biden out yet, the best is yet to come!

         But if Kamala loses, Biden better bow out to let her through the glass ceiling!
         1. NYMutza November 4, 2024 at 7:10 pm

            Yes, nuclear war will make Bush’s reign of terror look like child’s play. Biden has nearly three months to accomplish that goal.
      2. albrt November 4, 2024 at 4:08 pm

         But Obama retroactively ratified and legitimized everything Bush did. Is anybody going to do that for Biden?
         1. spud November 4, 2024 at 10:32 pm

            remember, it was not what bush did, it was what bill clinton that codified everything bush did.

            bush was really a minor player in all of this. he should do the perp walk, but it would be hard to make him do the perp walk, when it was clinton that made what he did, legal.
            1. Alan Sutton November 5, 2024 at 1:55 am

               Yes spud.

               Nobody should forget Clinton. His wife and their minions.
      3. aleph_0 November 4, 2024 at 7:16 pm

         100% agree. I feel like we’ve gotten so histrionic as a country, that we’ve memory-holed some pretty recent extreme criminality.

         I agree with you — I would also give W the edge on executive branch crimes in the last 50 years or so.
      4. Greg Taylor November 5, 2024 at 12:13 am

         censorship industrial complex is worse than warrantless surveillance,
         genocide worse than torture
         gaslighting us into Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon on par with Iraq
         deaths in Ukraine (both sides, military/civilian) and Middle East fast approaching Iraq

         Biden’s accomplished that in just 3.75 years vs. W’s 8. He’s still active. I’ll give him the nod.
         1. Cassandra November 5, 2024 at 3:04 am

            Biden’s accomplished that in just 3.75 years vs. W’s 8. He’s still active. I’ll give him the nod.

            I see your point, Greg, but Biden stands on the shoulders of giants.

            Black humor aside, there comes a point when evil is just evil, and comparison is moot. We are in a polycrisis, and those who have the power to begin to address the problems are assiduously worsening them while creating new disasters.
   2. Randall Flagg November 4, 2024 at 4:07 pm

      >Biden won. He made it to the finish line still in office despite the most extraordinary litany of Executive branch crimes ever. Almost all the tin cans got kicked across the finish line.

      Hold on there, he’s still the “President ” until Jan 20/2025.
      Still plenty of time to Eff things up. Say, get us officially into WW3…
      1. mrsyk November 4, 2024 at 9:16 pm

         Yes, “Don’t underestimate uncle Joe’s ability…..”
         1. The Rev Kev November 4, 2024 at 9:23 pm

            He’d do it more out of spite because of how he was dumped. He’s the greatest President since FDR, don’tcha know?
            1. mrsyk November 4, 2024 at 9:29 pm

               How about an accidental launch because Joe thought the “football” was a really cool candy dispenser.
8. Carolinian November 4, 2024 at 3:20 pm

   Hope Kamala isn’t closing.

   And not entirely unrelated, new Alastair Crooke takes a philosophical look at warmongers and their “narratives.”

   https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/11/04/netanyahus-imaginary-war-narrative-strategy-if-it-works-fine-if-not-no-big-deal-well-try-something-else/

   It includes this tidbit

   “One such event seemingly happened last Saturday, when it appears that the Israeli strike on Iran suffered an unexpected ‘major hitch’ rather early in the SEAD operation (Suppressing Enemy Air Defences) to suppress and destroy Iran’s air defences. Apparently the first wave of attack was intended as the first step – once Iranian airspace had been secured – to pave the way for the subsequent F-35 strike package armed with conventional bombs.

   The unexpected event – ‘Israeli media reported that an “unknown air defence system” was used to shoot down targets over Tehran province’. Reportedly, the Israeli operation was scrubbed soon after, and the victory narrative – later to be taken up by the WSJ (among many others) – was loudly proclaimed.”

   He also claims the jets were over Iraq, not Jordan. But if the above is true it puts a further wrinkle on the Israeli fighter jet cult mentioned in Links. As America has found, bombing those who can’t shoot back gives a heady sense of supremacy while those who can shoot back put you in tiger cages. Time for Israeli hubris to produce Israel’s Vietnam? Contra Crooke I think history does have rules, just not the ones the bomber boys think.
   1. AG November 4, 2024 at 7:07 pm

      Would be interesting how a cover-up would look like with an F-35 (accidentally?!) shot down by the Iranians (instead of Israeli Patriots). Lockheed certainly would like this as a test case scenario but without any pilot hurt. Like in their war games but real. To debunk all the bad press on poor F-35.
   2. Yves Smith November 5, 2024 at 7:44 am

      Note that Scott Ritter, who had worked with the IDF (and now is VERY critical of them) disagrees with the “Iran defense wunderwaffen” thesis. He contends that Israel did launch all 3 waves and did not have to enter Iran airspace.
9. Mark Gisleson November 4, 2024 at 3:25 pm

   From X via Citizen Free Press:

   WHAT HAPPENED TO DEMOCRAT TURNOUT IN PENNSYLVANIA.

   Early voting numbers for Democrats are down 700,000 from 2020. Republican ballots are basically the same. Was 2020 a mirage.

   2020
   🟦 1,587,654 (+1,040,038)
   🟥 547,616

   2024
   🟦 893,998 (+372,799)
   🟥 521,199

   Argues for 2020 having been a massive cheat. That or the polls are gaslighting us. Both good guesses!
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 4, 2024 at 3:28 pm

      > Early voting numbers for Democrats are down 700,000 from 2020. Republican ballots are basically the same. Was 2020 a mirage.

      What’s original source on that? There’s a ton of unauthenticated tweets running around, universally tendentious.

      Still, if true, it augers well for the Trump campaign.

      “Argues for” isn’t good enough. Please keep the focus on 2024.
      1. Louis Fyne November 4, 2024 at 4:04 pm

         the outcome of PA depends on (in no order): the Amish, and non-white turnout inside Philadelphia city limits, and fracking v. anti-fracking (which correlates with a lot of other existing issues)
      2. mrsyk November 4, 2024 at 4:31 pm

         These numbers are referred to as “the latest numbers from the state” at about 7:50 in the video, (WGAL8, Lancaster)
         DEMOCRAT BALLOTS RETURNED | 997,450
         REPUBLICAN BALLOTS RETURNED | 587,546
         OTHER PARTIES | 205,323

         I got excited about “other parties”, but it probably includes independent voters. I’m with Mark on this one, and I am extremely skeptical of reports of “record enthusiasm” and “record turnout,” which I view as foaming the runway for cheating by mail-in ballot strategies.

         Here are 2020 numbers from Electproject (Source: Data provided by Pennsylvania Secretary of State’s office)
         
         Party Returned Ballots
         Democrats 1,702,484
         Republicans 623,404
         Minor 20,111
         No Party Affiliation 283,673
         TOTAL 2,629,672 100.0 3,087,524 85.2
         
      3. Not Again November 4, 2024 at 4:34 pm

         In 2020, EVERYONE in Pennsylvania got an absentee ballot automatically in the mail.

         In 2024, Pennsylvanians had to request a mail in ballot by October 28th or go to the polls to vote.
         1. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 4, 2024 at 4:58 pm

            Ah! So they reverted from the Covid era. That makes sense!
            1. Not Again November 4, 2024 at 7:15 pm

               BTW – This is where the claims of “stolen election” came from.

               Pennsylvania state constitution says that only the state legislature can amend voting law. The GOP legislature refused to allow mass mail-in balloting even though the Dems wanted it. The Dems went to court and the state court allowed everyone a mail in ballot because of “covid.”

               Trump intended to have all the mail in ballots declared null and void because the state constitution wasn’t followed. He only wanted in-person votes to count since they were legally cast. That’s why they wouldn’t let Republican voters mail theirs in.
               1. Darthbobber November 4, 2024 at 8:29 pm

                  Not quite right. Act 77 was passed by the legislature, and signed by the governor, in 2019. That’s the act that authorized universal mail in voting.
                  1. Not Again November 4, 2024 at 9:37 pm

                     HARRISBURG — The state Supreme Court has upheld Pennsylvania’s mail ballot law, preserving for the time being a popular voting method that passed the legislature with bipartisan support but was later challenged by Republican elected officials.

                     In a 5-2 decision released Tuesday, the justices rejected the GOP argument that the legislature did not have the power under the state constitution to allow Pennsylvanians to vote by mail without an excuse.

                     https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2022/08/pa-mail-voting-law-uphelp-state-supreme-court/
   2. Martin Oline November 4, 2024 at 4:57 pm

      The Robert Barnes and Rich Baris ‘final’ podcast of What are the odds? #85 has just wrapped up at 2 ½ hours. I have not listened to the whole thing yet but there are some interesting things about this. There is a short clip of Mark Halperin at about 19:40 and soon after that Robert joins the show. He makes some short reference to him being interviewed by the Brits and this may be a reference to his appearance on The Duran yesterday. What I found interesting was Baris’ report that the Selzer poll (the Iowa Poll) which was released last weekend may be biased. Ann Selzer was calling her friends Friday boasting she was ”Gonna drop a bomb on this SOB” with this poll at 37 minutes of the podcast. I am sure the 700,000 drop in Dem early voting is covered (Halperin alludes to it) but haven’t found a source yet. There is a link to that show on Youtube here.
      (Baris is a pollster from Florida and a conservative.)
   3. hamstak November 4, 2024 at 4:57 pm

      I just received an urgent text from an outfit requesting a $20 donation with a 6X match to stop Trump in Pennsylvania. Uh, a little late for that, folks — what could you possibly do with that money in a matter of hours that would make a significant difference? But hey, may as well make a last minute play for coin for the consulting operations.
   4. IM Doc November 4, 2024 at 5:03 pm

      Just a brief glance through my Twitter feed – mainly consisting of my old friends – daily kos types –

      1) They are already spiking the football- end zone dancing – this is over – the blue wave is here – no one that I have seen is actually explaining this rationally. 2) The women early vote is way down – because – every woman in America is waiting to take their daughters to the polls tomorrow – it is going to be historic and in their face – and they deserve every bit of it – that is the overall message. We cannot wait to see Red America in tears – every last one of them will be made to suffer for what they have done – etc. Seriously – that is what is happening. We have gone beyond election results – that is already a foregone conclusion – to already debating who will be the best Secretary of State, etc.

      All kinds of comments in reply are stating that I am taking my kids/sons to the polls and we are voting for Trump – but there is no breaking through. The basic response – “Who cares about your a hole sons – we are having a party tomorrow”

      My own wife and I have been hauling people to early voting all week – almost all elderly Dems – in a blue area – we have heard not a peep about abortion – but we sure have heard about immigrants and inflation.

      She and I will be taking our sons tomorrow – and we will not be voting for Kamala – I wonder how much of this is going on as well – the daily kos types absolutely shoot this down in their comments – and call all kinds of names.

      This premature end zone dancing really worries me tremendously. I have seen for the past month how fragile the Kamala voters are – if she is defeated – well, things are not going well.

      But rest assured everyone – the blue wave is on the way – they are predicting Kamala into the 380s or so. It will be joy unspeakable and full of glory for the next 4 years.

      Well – I still think this is a tight election – who knows who will win – but this behavior is not a good sign for the future of the country.
      1. The Rev Kev November 4, 2024 at 6:05 pm

         Remember what happened election night in 2016? The shock that Trump had won, the tears on the faces of all those women where the Democrats were gathered, the refusal of Clinton to go out an console her supporters, the anguish. They were so positive that they were going to win right up to that night because how else could it be. This will be worse if Trump wins again. But something for both sides to remember-

         ‘Put not your faith in princes.’
         1. Offtrail November 4, 2024 at 6:28 pm

            I remember tears in eyes among the PBS election coverage staff.
         2. Pat November 4, 2024 at 10:26 pm

            Aw yes, they picked the least attendee friendly spot in the city , the Javits Center, to represent Hillary breaking the glass ceiling. And then they just left the supporters hanging in that cavernous uncomfortable convention center space while Hillary cried in her cups. I admit I thought her inability to suck it up long enough to go out and talk about how her supporters should be proud because of their hard work and what they accomplished even if it wasn’t all they had hoped was a very good indication that HRC would have been terrible any time things didn’t go to her plan if she had been elected.
            But in a lighter look back
            SNL Election Night 2016

            Unfortunately the delusion is deeper and the hysteria greater this time around.
            1. mrsyk November 4, 2024 at 10:47 pm

               Ah, the Jarvis Center. I had forgotten that bit of just irony. What a cold and uncomfortable building located in what was back in the naughties an equally cold and uncomfortable lot.
      2. IM Doc November 4, 2024 at 6:35 pm

         It is now announced on my Twitter feed that Harris is now ahead in Kansas – and is closing up strong in Missouri. I am not kidding. The blue tsunami is on the way. Some new polling in Kansas and Missouri on the eve of the election – it sounds really legit to me – but what do I know?

         Again, guard your mental health. Who knows what is going to happen……Go vote – and realize that no matter what happens to gird yourself for some very difficult times.
         1. raspberry jam November 4, 2024 at 7:20 pm

            Kansas I could believe, maybe, under the right conditions (depopulating + used to be Dem) but Missouri…? That is like saying Texas is going to flip blue. Not possible according to anyone who is familiar with it in the real world.
            1. hk November 5, 2024 at 1:00 am

               I would sooner expect Texas to tutn blue than Kansas. The results in Texas was closer in 2016 and 2020 than people might think–huge urban metro areas turned much bluer in response to Trump. But, KS? Oh, come on….

               I guess one pattern, that follows the weird IA story, is that Dems think women are automatically pro abortion and restrictive abortion laws will generate pink blue waves…except that’s not true: men don’t care about abortion much; women do, including those who are against abortion. Pro choice women may be more numerous across the nation. I’m almost willing to believe that something might happen in IA, which does have interesting traditions and weird cultural pockets (eg small lib arts college towns), but Kansas?
         2. Not Again November 4, 2024 at 7:44 pm

            I just read the definition of “likely voter.”
            It’s someone who has voted in 3 of the last 4 elections.

            If these Trump people – who vote for Trump and only Trump every 4 years actually exist – they are not accounted for in any polling. This could get ugly.
            1. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 5, 2024 at 5:32 am

               Interesting point!
         3. Screwball November 4, 2024 at 9:41 pm

            Speaking of Twitter, my feed is telling me Rogan endorsed Trump tonight. More heads explode.

            What I find fascinating about all this is how they herd the willing. It’s really impressive. And it’s at a frenzy. So many people divided by who they hate.

            I told my 37 year old daughter a bit ago; get ready, s*its about to get real.

            Be safe all
      3. Jason Boxman November 4, 2024 at 9:34 pm

         I remember the early vibes about that in 2016, after Trump won, that those errant Trump voters are gonna get what they deserve when the ACA is repealed, and they can all die from lack of care, literally. Trump’s election changed the character of our national politics forever, I think. The PMC class never forgave anyone that voted for Trump, the ultimate evil in this timeline.
10. jo6pac November 4, 2024 at 3:35 pm

    How everyone is doing with the Muslim vote.

    https://consortiumnews.com/2024/11/04/asad-abukhalil-the-arab-vote/
    1. Not Again November 4, 2024 at 4:40 pm

       https://www.cair.com/press_releases/cair-swing-state-data-shows-muslim-voters-hold-diverse-preferences-still-up-for-grabs-in-2024/
11. ambrit November 4, 2024 at 3:46 pm

    In reference to your mentioning the old tyme scrying method of divination via observing the entrails of sacrificed birds. We are not monsters anymore. We no longer “project” our faults onto the helpless carcases of animals. We are modern and credentialed! Today, we ‘own’ our peccadillos and scrutinize the spilled entrails of Politicos. Like the Kings in days of old, our Politicos agree to either “bring home the bacon” or become ‘longpig’ themselves.
    There are many good things to be said about the Ancient Traditions.
    1. Mark Gisleson November 4, 2024 at 4:51 pm

       Not a seer but I’m pretty sure that I could tell you a lot about any politician by examining their entrails. Diet has a lot to do with who we are!

       I’d be glad to examine as many as you like!
       1. chris November 4, 2024 at 5:20 pm

          To the NSA, CIA, FBI, and NGO staff members who are now in the chat, no one here is suggesting that any of these gutless politicians should be gutted so that we can divine how they were bought and sold./sarc

          (Tags added to prevent biased observers from reporting me and others to our overlords…)
          1. ambrit November 4, 2024 at 7:28 pm

             I appreciate your careful communications skills in this matter. However, from the very beginning, several years at the least, that I began tentatively commenting here, I have assumed that I was automatically entered on some Deep State Miscreants List (DSML.) Not only does commenting on the Internet require a thick skin, but it also requires a high degree of Civic Courage. Being the high points in the internet commentary field, we must anticipate a visit from the “Malleus Dissidenum” (Hammer Against Dissidents) sooner or later.
             Stay safe.
       2. mrsyk November 4, 2024 at 6:11 pm

          I like sweetbreads lemon meunière, Fritz, did you say you are a saucier?
          1. Mark Gisleson November 4, 2024 at 10:37 pm

             I flew in a saucier once but that’s a story for another time and definitely a different place.
12. Duke of Prunes November 4, 2024 at 3:47 pm

    I say those NYT’s IT workers best be careful… If things run fine in their absence, NYTs might start going all Elon on them (dump 50% as overhead).

    Wouldn’t playing the games (and breaking them by overloading) better make their case? However, i will obey their ask and skip the games until this is resolved.
13. Wukchumni November 4, 2024 at 3:54 pm

    If only I’d been on Swindlers List by purchasing a Bible or gold high top sneakers or what have you on offer, shielding me from those too astute to purchase such useless kitsch in order to save themselves from regret and/or consequences at the Google-ag Archipelago
14. Conway November 4, 2024 at 3:55 pm

    “Harris’ economic policies are less likely to produce runaway inflation and deficits than Trump’s”

    1.5% inflation with four years of Trump, ~20% with BidenHarris.

    “I will fix things if you vote me into office, says woman currently in office.”

    I like track records, much more accurate than promisnosticating.
    1. mrsyk November 4, 2024 at 4:36 pm

       I agree that the headline is pure BS, but Covid and our absurd timeline present a number of unaccounted confounders for your data.
15. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 4, 2024 at 4:05 pm

    I have added orts and scraps. There should be a lot more, but I must do some stuff before the big day tomorrow.
    1. AG November 4, 2024 at 7:00 pm

       … like eat and drink? (this line of work is sucking up hours without anyone noticing.)
16. ambrit November 4, 2024 at 4:06 pm

    Wukchumnis North Rim of the Grand Canyon is the definition of a “Defensible Position.” Just ask the Anasazi and Puebloan peoples from a millennia ago.
    1. jo6pac November 4, 2024 at 4:14 pm

       I’ve stayed overnight here and it’s amazing.

       https://thevanescape.com/toroweap-overlook-grand-canyon/
    2. Wukchumni November 4, 2024 at 8:03 pm

       We visited Meteor Crater and Sunset Crater is only 30 miles away, the former on account of a meteorite 50,000 years ago, the latter a volcanic version with a river of jagged lava 900 years ago.

       The ruins of Wupatki & Wuwoki were constructed just beyond the lava zone, about 10 miles away from where cinder cones were formed.

       It reminded me of Chaco Canyon as they were right out there in the open, visible from many miles away.

       No defensive position whatsoever
17. ambrit November 4, 2024 at 4:15 pm

    One could observe that Millet, by his choices of subject was a predecessor and influence on the Muralistas of the early and mid-twentieth century in Mexico and points south. Dare we accuse Millet of being an early Social Realist? Some of the early Van Gogh exhibits this esthetic. Turning a bit outre, I can see Lautrec’s images of the prostitutes, ‘professional’ dancers, and assorted “lowlifes” of Mauve Decade Paris as an urban version of the Millet milieu.
    1. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 5, 2024 at 5:30 am

       > Dare we accuse Millet of being an early Social Realist?

       Socially or ideologically, I think you could (I would put Courbet in that bucket, too, perhaps). Very good point on Toulose-Lautrec*.

       If we’re talking Socialist Realism, I can’t deal with the aesthetics, or, when it devolves into sentimentalism, the themes.

       NOTE * “What did the French locomotive engineer say when their train derailed?”
18. Deschain November 4, 2024 at 4:35 pm

    I’m voting Dem tomorrow for one reason and one reason only: Khan, Kanter, Chopra. Biden brought us them – probably the single best thing the Dems have done at the national level in my Gen X lifetime – even if most of the rest of what he brought us was dreck or worse. Will Harris keep them around if she wins? I’m not sure I think she will. But Trump certainly will give them the axe if he wins. I wrote letters to my Congressman and Senators today explaining why I was voting for Harris and making it clear that if she does give them the boot, I go back to 3rd party protest votes. Hopefully they and others put pressure on Harris to leave these excellent regulators in place.
    1. Not Again November 4, 2024 at 4:44 pm

       Funny. I voted for Trump today because I thought that the damage he will cause would be more fixable than the damage Kamala causes.

       But then again, I voted for Biden in 2020. WTF do I know?
    2. urdsama November 4, 2024 at 4:56 pm

       To each their own, but we all know how pressuring a candidate after they have won works.

       It doesn’t.

       If she wins, they are gone, especially Kahn. Look at who surrounds Harris.
       1. mrsyk November 4, 2024 at 6:03 pm

          Kahn is a valuable asset to keep oligarchs in check. Either team should see it that way. I think Vance sees this, so I predict Kahn stays if Trump wins. I’m not sure if Harris wins, but I wouldn’t be surprised If they toss her overboard as the cost of doing business.
          1. tegnost November 4, 2024 at 6:19 pm

             I’d guess kahn is 50/50 under trump, as noted below vance said some positive things,and fired by kamala. IMO the dems are more monopolistic and authoritarian, yesterday listened to a blue saying all trump voters should be punished, kimmel and the kick anti vaxxers out of the hospital, ukraine war is all on the dems, genocide, tony west, newsom appointing the air bnb lady to feinsteins seat, two assassins…the list goes on…
             If trump wins and theres an election in 2026 (what?democracy still exists?) MSNBC should be sued into the stone age for all the psychological trauma their bloviations have caused.
             I anticipate kamala/national security state/billionaires will win, but I expected HRC to win also so my track record isn’t good.
          2. Not Again November 4, 2024 at 7:01 pm

             Mark Cuban assured the folks on CNBC that Kamala knew everything she needed to know about Lina Kahn. She’s gone.
    3. Samuel Conner November 4, 2024 at 5:33 pm

       IIRC, Vance has said some sympathetic things about Lina Khan. I don’t know how influential he would be on policy, if DJT is elected.
19. lyman alpha blob November 4, 2024 at 4:38 pm

    RE: She has promised to seek consensus and compromise, two words Trump has rarely uttered.

    Maybe Trump decided to play the Face rather than the Heel for the last week, but I’ve been seeing quite a few nice ads portraying Trump as the unifier and president for everybody. Personally I prefer the borscht belt insult comic version.
    1. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 4, 2024 at 4:56 pm

       > She has promised

       She said Biden was sharp as a tack, too. I write off whatever they say.
    2. griffen November 4, 2024 at 5:06 pm

       Compromise with the basket of garbage / MAGA supporters….Got it of course she will \sarc

       Bush 41 promised no new taxes…promises by politicians are like unicorns & leprechauns….
       1. flora November 4, 2024 at 5:23 pm

          Mostly true, I think. However, T did stop the horrible trade deals the TPP and TPIP as he pledged he would during his 2018 campaign. That was something a lot of US union members wanted. Maybe that’s an outlier. / ;)
          1. mrsyk November 4, 2024 at 6:17 pm

             A lot of us here wanted those deals stopped as well. Something about signing over sovereignty to our corporate overlords.
    3. Useless Eater November 4, 2024 at 7:06 pm

       How is she supposed to compromise with fascists?
       1. ambrit November 5, 2024 at 1:54 am

          Fascists? Do you mean her own backers and sycophants?
    4. Lefty Godot November 4, 2024 at 7:30 pm

       Every Democrat elected president promises to seek consensus and compromise with the party they were also calling rabid, right-wing kooks. It’s called “bipartisanship” and only the Democrats promise that, because it’s a cover for pushing their own right-wing agenda through and then saying the Republicans forced them to do it so that a compromise could be reached. So that’s a negative, not a selling point.

       When both parties ignore what over 60% of Americans want government to do, consensus and compromise just means they’re going to screw us over twice as hard.
       1. Lefty Godot November 4, 2024 at 7:41 pm

          Or, as George Carlin said, “The word bipartisan usually means some larger-than-usual deception is being carried out.”
20. Silo Man November 4, 2024 at 4:41 pm

    Nothing has changed in 50 years. Dems and Repubs have traded offices at the Capitol and their failed policies – for the citizens – have each built upon those of their predecessors. They have both worked hard to undo the regulated capitalism of the New Deal and it has been an astounding success. How to explain it all? Simply follow the money…as always. From four year non-stop election cycles to who wins the election, it is not policy that matters but money. We now rate our candidates by the amounts of money they raise as if that is the same as a policy debate. We have monetized ourselves.
21. Tom Stone November 4, 2024 at 4:54 pm

    The Choice Tomorrow is between two Politicians who have both pledged to commit several felonies in order to enable genocide.
    ITAR, the Foreign Assistance Act, the Leahy Amendment and the Genocide Convention are of no importance when campaign contributions are at stake.
    The open corruption and craven depravity of Western elites shows that their sense of privilege and impunity is without limit.
    I don’t believe it is.
    1. Fastball November 4, 2024 at 8:29 pm

       Don’t forget the Symington Amendment.
22. flora November 4, 2024 at 5:20 pm

    Taibbi and Kirn, this week’s ATW. no paywall.

    ATW Livestream Tonight at 8 PM ET/7 PM CT

    https://www.racket.news/p/atw-livestream-tonight-at-8-pm-et7-c8d
    1. AG November 4, 2024 at 6:57 pm

       Stop posting this info. It keeps me from getting my work done!
       1. Jason Boxman November 4, 2024 at 9:30 pm

          That’s my entire relationship with NC, but I wouldn’t have it any other way ;)
          1. AG November 4, 2024 at 10:50 pm

             Someone could have warned me, keep away from that site…
    2. AG November 4, 2024 at 8:49 pm

       Is it 8pm already?
       (“are we there yet, Mom?”)
       1. Mark Gisleson November 4, 2024 at 10:09 pm

          No, it’s 9:05 (God’s time) and Walter and Matt just wrapped up.

          An enjoyable two hours of my life I’ll never get back. Time spent on Iowa and Selzer early on surprised but gratified me. I commented that Selzer made it clear the client had something something that I took to mean they had dictated certain terms of the polling. The vibe I got was that Selzer followed her usual methods but the client may have something something.

          Then just before I came back here I read that there’s scuttlebutt about Selzer telling friends she was going to drop a bomb on Trump. It’s times like this that I wish I’d learned how to do that old school keyboard emoticon shoulder shrug.
          1. Martin Oline November 5, 2024 at 5:47 am

             The actual quote reported said in the What Are The Odds? #85 podcast (37 min.) was
             ‘I’m going to drop a bomb in that SOB’s lap” but Trump was not named.
             I liked Kirn’s analogy of pollsters being glorified accountants, or something like that. People do not realize they have a business and polling is not charitable work.
23. kareninca November 4, 2024 at 6:00 pm

    I think I may have just seen a coal mine canary for auto insurance in CA. I have a friend who has had Safeco Auto insurance for 43 years with no claims or accidents. She got into a fender bender last month. She called up to pay her renewal by credit card by phone (she was a day late), and was told she could not pay by phone any more and that she had been dropped. She will be calling a lawyer but I don’t know if that will help.

    Her insurance broker found a few other carriers that charge $2,000 to $3,000 per month for full coverage. She can get a AAA policy with very limited coverage for $600 per month.

    I think Safeco may be trying to get rid of customers in CA.
24. The Rev Kev November 4, 2024 at 6:11 pm

    Re that tennis match for kids described in that tweet. Lambert described it as a zombie movie which put me onto the thought that you could do exactly that. This could be the opening scene for a zombie film where the kids are coughing, vomiting, looking pale and start to collapse while their parents are oblivious on their mobiles – until they start to turn. It’ll be great.
25. Lunker Walleye November 4, 2024 at 6:21 pm

    The Millet reminds me of Peter Brueghel’s work. Brueghel was roughly 300 years earlier.
    Camille Corot did impressionistic work and he was a contemporary of Millet.
    Camille Pissarro was also a contemporary.
    https://www.wikiart.org/en/camille-pissarro/peasants-in-the-field-eragny-1890
26. eg November 4, 2024 at 6:59 pm

    Not unlike the use of bags of leaves around the studio (Full Moon Fibre Art) my father told me how at one of the houses (more like a cabin, really) he lived in as a boy in the St John river valley in New Brunswick they cut cedars in the fall and arranged them around the exterior walls so that the winter snow could accumulate overtop of them to add an additional layer of insulation.
    1. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 5, 2024 at 5:18 am

       Same principle! Pockets of air insulate.
27. Mark Gisleson November 4, 2024 at 7:06 pm

    Six minutes of Halpern talking to people about the election. GOTV not looking good for Democrats.
28. Glen November 4, 2024 at 7:09 pm

    Won’t you come and join our party?

    Turn it up, turn it WAY, WAY up. (And play it until it [family blogging ] sinks in.) Yee-ha!

    The Who – Eminence Front https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KI_npEyjgxA

    And the NSFW uncensored version:

    THE WHO Eminence Front https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HTVMh7fur4

    You can’t understand what I’m saying, can you?
    1. Steve H. November 5, 2024 at 8:28 am

       COULD NOT HELP TURNING IT WAY WAY UP! HAIRS ON END!
29. Cassandra November 4, 2024 at 7:22 pm

    I am a long time lurker, but this is my first comment. I am not criticizing how anyone chooses to vote, including “none of the above.” My last presidential vote for a Democrat was Obama (in 2008). I regreted it as soon as I saw his appointments. I have voted third party several times. I didn’t like Trump when he was a TV star, and I’m not Republican or even conservative. However, this time I am voting for Trump despite his obvious issues.

    My reason is that the Democrats have become the party of censorship and its not just cancel culture. I won’t go into the details as everyone here is aware of what the Democrats, the media, the deep state, and the intelligentsia did re Covid and most of you must at least have a good idea about the impropriety of the lawfare waged against Trump. I’m retired now but as a lawyer for 40 plus years (criminal and civil), the lawfare shook me. I looked at it carefully and was so appalled by what I saw that it made me literally sick. Yes, some people spoke out, including Glenn Greenwald, but too much of it has been normalized by the Democratic party and their media cheerleaders.

    I certainly agree that there are other crucial issues in this election, including Gaza and the Ukraine. But I’m concerned that we won’t be able to even talk or write about those crucial issues if the Democrats and their friends are able to take away the threshold/gateway rights protected by the bill of rights. Yes those pesky provisions like free speech and due process which enable websites like NC to survive. And if the Democrats and gang get away with what they’ve done (and win an election by blatantly violating those rights), then I don’t see what will stop Republicans or anyone else from doing that too. Unfortunately when something works, it gets repeated.

    No I don’t see it as very likely that Trump will be able to do better in Gaza than Biden/Harris. But if our citizens want better foreign or domestic policies, those will only come about if we the people are able to freely discuss the facts and have facts made available to us, and then make our desires clear to the government. Censorship prevents that before anyone can even get started.

    I should also confess that I’ve resided in San Francisco since the early 70’s and the idea of Kamala Harris becoming president of anything let alone the United States also makes me frankly cringe.
    1. CA November 5, 2024 at 2:57 am

       [ Cassandra:

       Democrats have become the party of censorship… ]

       What an important and distressing argument, all through.
    2. Jen November 5, 2024 at 5:04 am

       I came across a video on twitter where the poster said that in our present system, anyone you vote for becomes your opponent the minute they are elected, so the question when you vote is not “who do I want to win?,” but “who would I rather have as my opponent?”

       That resonated with me. If the democrats win, no matter what the margin, they will dispense patronages and go back to brunch. If they lose, they might have to engage in actual opposition on a legislative level.
    3. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 5, 2024 at 5:17 am

       > I am a long time lurker, but this is my first comment

       Thank you!
30. aleph_0 November 4, 2024 at 7:32 pm

    Sorry for the pop culture — I’ve been thinking of Majora’s Mask in conjunction with the election all day. It seemed to fit…

    Maybe this is more appropriate?

    Either way, I will say that it’ll be nice not getting 50 texts and 2 dozen calls a day anymore.
    1. mrsyk November 4, 2024 at 9:24 pm

       Come now, the lawfare part of the election is about to shift into overdrive, and that’s gonna be expensive. “So can we count on you to chip in and do your part?” Heh heh heh, it will never end.
       1. aleph_0 November 5, 2024 at 12:17 am

          Totally fair.
31. Joe Renter November 4, 2024 at 7:43 pm

    Due Dissidence called for the empty suit on Dem side to win. Good analysis IMO.

    https://youtu.be/SAxk9vOoeOI?si=Ra-11nTxhNBMrpg5
    1. urdsama November 4, 2024 at 8:25 pm

       I was actually disappointed with their analysis.

       They included the very suspect Iowa poll and gave scant mention to another poll that said almost the exact opposite. And while they downplayed the sus poll, why include it in the first place?

       And while I don’t dispute their overall position on early voting (which now appears to be an issue for Dems) as far as the trends with Democratic and women voters, they essentially ignored the possible GOTV by the GOP which, if we want to go with traditional outcomes, heavily favors Trump.

       All in all I felt they should have said something along the lines of “If the election were called now Harris has most likely won, but in light of possible GOP voting on election days we have to say it’s too close to call”.

       Not sure why they feel the need to make a call in such a chaotic environment.
       1. Joe Renter November 4, 2024 at 8:30 pm

          They made the call because that’s what they do. We will see. It’s going to be hectic, no doubt and for weeks at that.
          1. urdsama November 4, 2024 at 9:18 pm

             They don’t have to. Might actually be refreshing to say – too close to call and the data is too chaotic.
       2. Martin Oline November 5, 2024 at 5:59 am

          The other poll was by Rasmussen, a name that more here will recognize than Ann Selzer. He committed the unforgivable sin of being a conservative and is even now wondering in the wilderness. His last poll which you mentioned is here. It says that Trump is up three points over Harris in his national poll. Not what Blue-ANON wants to hear so it is ignored.
32. steppenwolf fetchit November 4, 2024 at 8:00 pm

    Here’s something funny from the “funny” subreddit, titled ” History Channel during the day versus History Channel at 1:00 a.m. Its for people who watch a lot of television.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/1gjg4mk/history_channel/
33. Jason Boxman November 4, 2024 at 9:28 pm

    Yes, I will do an election night live blog tomorrow!

    Nice, I’ll be doing election night homemade pizza to take some of the suck of this election season away.
34. AG November 4, 2024 at 9:40 pm

    re: TAIBBI/KIRN and Saturday Night Live

    Hmmmm…I am watching Taibbi/Kirn. And they are on the SNL show which I hadn´t seen and I must say Kirn does not entirely get the humour behind it…

    I haven´t followed SNL for 20 years really. So I don´t know how it changed.

    But what Kirn suggests – apart from the lack of possible dramaturgical, sigh – 3-act-struture – is rather old-fashioned AND preachy.

    In fact what he seemed to expect was the opposite of what he politically and rightly so demands. Which is why aesthetics is NOT reality. They work on totally different sets of rules.

    To spill out the politically obvious in a joke like the wall/Southern border and Harris make react in shock would be bad humour being clumsy clumsy.

    I am not saying that their sketch couldn´t be better but the writers did walk a fine line of affirmation (why else would they invite Harris BEFORE election night in the first place?) and making fun of her, or the concept of election campaigns.

    In that respect it was a bit heady, artsy even (a bit precocious may be with the mirror, which would suggest rather younger writers who might put form over content intent of proving their originality?).

    To instead run around with huge dicks is a possibility. But it´s different humour. And the rules of the game have actually changed since the 1960s and the Civil Rights movement and emancipation.

    There is a reason that in the 1990s you had film essays suggesting “Did emancipation of women kill the RomCom?”.
    As mainstream entertainment you have to adjust to that. And with that forms change.

    p.s. Netflix has just started Season 2 of one of the few shows there that were decent, THE DIPLOMAT. Season 1 wasn´t bad – except some usual caveats with RU bad boy etc. – at the same time I found out that the creator of the show was – hopefully I don´t mix this up – part of a group of Hollywood screenwriters who visited NATO headquartes in Brussels and are planning on doing shows and programs to propagate and popularize NATO. I was seriously shocked to see this. But her writing on THE DIPLOMAT was still good. So go figure. That´s life, and art. Cope with it, Walter.

    It shows you that political POV and entertainment do not need to inform each other – if you are a pro.
    1. Mark Gisleson November 4, 2024 at 10:26 pm

       Later in the show they did a quiz show clip of a nerdy Khivebro who knew the answer to all of the Democrat talking points until they asked him who ran as VP for Hillary. crickets, guy is stumped.

       I forget how the skit went exactly but as a further clue they had Tim “the correct answer” Kaine step out. Still crickets. Then the host tells the perplexed that this is that candidate and his name is Tim Something not Kaine. Kaine corrects him and it gets pretty Abbott and Costello after that. Very good use of Kaine. Zero mention of Walz so that went according to plan.

       The skit’s end however wasn’t pro-D. It turns out that the other contestant was Margaret Atwood (pretty sure an actor but not totally sure) who does the Annie Hall-Marshall McLuhan bit which I always enjoy.

       Sorry for killing all the humor by summarizing but based on these two clips that I saw that I’m telling you about (I’ll get back to grandfather’s ram in a minute) it seemed a little bit more balanced than I expected. Widely noted online that the opening skit had been done with Trump and Mick Jagger and maybe others and so considered a Classic SNL bit™©®. The quiz show was surprisingly well done. Other than Tim Kaine, Harris and Maya Rudolph I recognized none of the cast.
       1. AG November 4, 2024 at 10:51 pm

          Actually I appreciate spoilers. Otherwise no sense to write and read about any such analysis.
          But I seem to not yet find the entire show…after what you say I should try watch it.
          1. Mark Gisleson November 5, 2024 at 10:45 am

             I only watched those two skits. No clue even who the musical guest was. Quiz show clip is here. And wow did I not remember it well. Walz is mentioned and it’s actually funnier than I thought on first view.
             1. AG November 5, 2024 at 12:54 pm

                wow, link blocked in Germany (distribution rights?)
35. flora November 4, 2024 at 10:04 pm

    I’m shocked! Shocked! / ;)

    Jimmy Dore, utube, ~5 minutes.

    Michigan Voting Machines Experience A “Programming Issue!” (live Rumble Time show)my Dore, utube, ~4+ minutes. (Why is she smiling?)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkiDGKybFuE
    1. mrsyk November 4, 2024 at 10:21 pm

       My bingo card scores a hit and it’s still Monday.
    2. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 5, 2024 at 5:11 am

       Lara Trump shot this one down, justifiably so. Please read the post. Sheesh, these talking points are tenacious.
36. AG November 4, 2024 at 10:04 pm

    p.s. Taibbi/Kirn
    They do idolize the “old” US.

    I am too much of a Chomsky/Hermann/Zinn student to fall for this. The US was never innocent or benign or honest. The only thing was more economic freedom domestically because the might and violent means to coerce the rest of the planet were unmatched. Which is why I would prefer genuine Marxist thinkers when Taibbi/Kirn leave their pop-cultural forte and get into serious polito-economic analysis of the historic kind – with some more “marxist-think” and expertise Kirn and Taibbi would understand where the freedom they speak of came from for real.

    Or ask non-whites about the “golden 1950s” in the US.
    The wealth of any era did not fall from the sky. It was “created” at gun point. Someone remind them.
37. NotTimothyGeithner November 4, 2024 at 10:44 pm

    https://x.com/BBGreatMoments/status/1853172845192384699

    We need to end this natural born and citizenship requirement for President because this is my President.
    1. ambrit November 5, 2024 at 2:42 am

       The problem here is that instead of Ichiro as Presidential candidate, the Oligarchs will put up someone like Starmer, or, heaven forbid, Van der Leyden.
       That “natural born” requirement is there for very good reasons. (Think a modern day Emperor Maximillian.)
       1. hk November 5, 2024 at 4:33 am

          Fwiw, Emperor Maximilian loved Mexico and died a Mexican patriot of sort even as he was shot by the firing squad. I’d rather have him than these weasels born in the States.
38. AG November 4, 2024 at 11:40 pm

    re: vote for Harris by Michael Albert

    This editorial on ZNet by Michael Albert (a major figure in the MIT-affiliated progressive political sphere since the 1970s, former SDS, however an academic career in physics was upended after his political activism.)

    It´s as often with him, too long. But since it´s on a pressing subject I will post the link.
    Any native speaker will have no problem running over it quickly:

    “Answering Critics”
    https://znetwork.org/znetarticle/answering-critics/

    If you wanna know the topic look no further than this final paragraph:

    And so, I am back where I began. November 5th, in swing states, I urge please hold your nose and vote Harris to stop Trump and MAGA. On November 6th please struggle for better, against fascist reaction and for participatory progress.
39. rowlf November 4, 2024 at 11:52 pm

    A blast from the past with Clarke and Dawe: The Presidential Race is Beautifully Poised

    And other old comedy

    Who will win the presidential cup?
    1. alfred venison November 5, 2024 at 2:45 am

       Nice blasts, thanks. -a.v.
40. steppenwolf fetchit November 5, 2024 at 12:41 am

    Here’s an article about Tucker Carlson’s recently delivered considered opinion on what is leading to the severity of hurricanes and etc. just lately. It is titled ” Tucker Carlson claims deadly hurricanes hitting US are ‘probably because of abortion’ ”

    Well, he knows his audience. Here is the link.

    https://www.the-express.com/news/politics/153627/tucker-carlson-abortion-hurricanes-election-day
41. Alan Sutton November 5, 2024 at 1:03 am

    I don’t think we need an Impressionist Millet when we have actual Millet.
42. steppenwolf fetchit November 5, 2024 at 1:16 am

    Some months ago Naked Capitalism ran a couple of articles about giant hornets showing up in Washington State. In honor of those articles, here is a creepy scary video of a giant hornet disposal technician disposing of a nest of giant hornets. Up close, personal and all suited up. It is titled Giant Hornet Nest Trap.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/toolgifs/comments/1gjo6h6/giant_hornet_nest_trap/

    ( And the comments reveal that this video comes from a whole treasure trove of waspocentric videos.)
    https://www.tiktok.com/@lili.wasp
43. Lambert Strether Post authorNovember 5, 2024 at 5:09 am

    Harris and Trump tie in Dixville Notch midnight vote to kick off Election Day CNN. Dixville Notch, for those who came in late, is the very first vote to take place.

    The tie was 3-3. The tea leaves are screaming at me that it’s going to be a long night….

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