By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Yes, I will do an election night live blog tomorrow! –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
Returning to the Northern Mockingbirds. Love the binomial: Mimus polyglottos.
Northern Mockingbird, 71 Maltby Road East, Wellington, Ontario, Canada. “Amazing mimicking abilities of various songbirds; singing persistently from different perches (top of a tree or a bush, wire); singing while in flight as well; moving from one perch to another quite frequently; very vocal and active, chasing other birds away from its territory esp American Robins; amazing mimicking abilities; great singer although I’m not sure if I would like it every morning next to my bedroom window. So intense :).”
In Case You Might Miss…
- Today’s RCP polling: Kamala closing.
- Dueling Op-Eds on Kamala v. Trump.
- Boeing vote today.
- News Guild tech workers strike at NYT on election day.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Countdown!
NEW Today’s RCP Poll Averages:
Lambert here: If we ignore the concept of margin of error, today’s survey, combined with Friday’s, says that Kamala is closing (and the Blue Wall is hers again). Recall also that the polls lag: If Big Mo is on Kamala’s site, she could ahead by now. Then again, if you look at the electoral college results with the Toss-Up states turned red or blue, Trump is stable and ahead. (I’m “dancing with the one that brung ya” on method, here; I’ve watched RCP consistently all year, hoping the average would defeat polarization and manipulation, and we’ll know at some point, well, in the near future whether that was an appropriate choice.) Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * “Trump Isn’t Perfect, but He’s the Better Choice” [Nikki Haley, Wall Street Journal]. The deck: “If you like his policies but are put off by his tone or his excesses, consider the cost of the past four years.” More: “[T]here are also millions whose views on Mr. Trump are mixed. They like much of what he did as president and agree with most of his policies. But they dislike his tone and can’t condone his excesses, such as his conduct on Jan. 6, 2021. This third group of Americans will determine whether the former president returns to the White House. To that group, I’ll point out that Mr. Trump isn’t the only one on the ballot. This election isn’t a referendum on him. It’s a choice between him and Kamala Harris. I don’t agree with Mr. Trump 100% of the time. But I do agree with him most of the time, and I disagree with Ms. Harris nearly all the time. That makes this an easy call. Here are the facts most relevant to me. Americans today on average face some $13,000 in higher annual costs than they did four years ago… Then there’s national security. The Biden-Harris agenda has made the world far more dangerous. Our southern border is our most pressing security threat; Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris have made it dramatically worse…. I agree with Mr. Trump that America should be strong—far stronger than we are today. When he was president, Russia didn’t invade another country, Iran was on its heels, China received serious pushback for the first time in decades, and our southern border was more secure. The world is unsafe under Biden-Harris, and we shouldn’t expect that to change under a Harris administration.” • Ugh. Haley making a play for the suburban white PMC genocidaires?
“Column: The case against Donald Trump is clear. Here’s the case for Kamala Harris” [Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times]. Here are six reasons Harris would be a better president:.. She has promised to seek consensus and compromise, two words Trump has rarely uttered. We could use a dose of both…. Harris’ economic policies are less likely to produce runaway inflation and deficits than Trump’s…. Harris has offered serious proposals to address three pressing problems: housing, childcare and elder care…. Harris says U.S. foreign policy should be based on strong alliances with other democracies, not cynical partnerships with tyrants like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping… And, of course, she would work to ensure that women can make decisions about abortion without state governments endangering their lives.” • “Would work to ensure” = “fight for” = “won’t get the job done,” as Democrats have failed to do on Roe for a generation. McManus isn’t dumb; the Democrats could abolish the filibuster and codify Roe when the Congress opens and the Senate sets its rules. Did Doyle get a commitment from Kamala on this? Or even ask the question? No. So it won’t get done.
* * * Kamala (D): History rhymes:
So, they narcissistically replaced “we” with “she?”
This is literally “it’s her turn.” https://t.co/mrIm6AFHGK
— Briahna Joy Gray (@briebriejoy) November 4, 2024
2008 – 2024 is not a rapid decay, in historical terms.
Kamala (D): “35 year national security expert”:
The woman stricken with TDS is none other than Patti Morrissey, a former senior DoD and ODNI official. Sadly this sickness is pervasive within the national security apparatus, and that degrades trust in these important government institutions. https://t.co/wDtwWfFrqc
— Ezra A. Cohen (@EzraACohen) November 3, 2024
Now a government contractor (naturally). ODNI is one of the organs of state security involved in election validation. I wonder who many degrees of separation between Morrissey, Jessica Brandt at ODNI’s Foreign Malign Influence Center, and DHS’s Jen Easterly at CISA. Not very many, I would bet. Perhaps they go to the same yoga class, or some such.
* * *
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Social Norming
I genuinely do not understand how we can not protect our children. What is going on here?
It’s like a zombie movie about the collapse of civilization.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Factory Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured goods in the US fell by 0.5% from the previous month to $584.2 billion in September of 2024, extending the revised 0.8% decline in August and loosely in line with market expectations of a 0.4% drop.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Machinists head to the polls in decisive vote that could end strike” [Seattle Times]. “A simple majority of ballots cast will decide whether the offer is approved or rejected. Voting is expected to conclude shortly after 7 p.m., with results announced shortly thereafter…. Union leaders have said Boeing threatened that, if the latest offer is rejected, the next one will be less generous. While Boeing did not specify what would be taken away if it were to fail, Machinists union District 751 President Jon Holden said Boeing might cancel a commitment to build the next airplane in the Puget Sound region, back away from a 38% wage increase or rescind a 1% decrease in health care costs…. Boeing’s October share sale did net the company more time. It raised $21.1 billion last week, selling additional shares in the company to shore up its balance sheet and stave off a potential credit-rating downgrade. With the big capital injection, analysts from Jefferies wrote Friday that Boeing is ‘likely in a stronger negotiating position.’ Workers are meanwhile burning through their savings. The analysts calculated Friday that the average “financial pain” for workers is $10,400 in lost wages. That’s nearing the $12,000 ratification bonus on offer and, for some workers, the $9,900 that they would gain in wage increases in the first year of the contract.” • Yes. Boeing went to Wall Street to raise money to beat the strike, and Wall Street obliged.
Manufacturing: “The Boeing strike vote; the United Airlines example” [Air Insight]. “The pause in MAX deliveries disrupted United’s network planning. Airlines sell seats 360 days out, so planning is essential, and delivery disruptions cause chaos. It is a delicate balance, and we see time and again the industry loses balance quickly. It always recovers, but that recovery invariably means people are stuck somewhere they don’t want to be, with airlines bleeding money as they recover.” • So the IAM still has some leverage beyond the cash flow problem Wall Street solved for Boeing.
Manufacturing: “Boeing Had a Big Week. This One Is Even Bigger” [Barron’s]. “The new labor contract offer increases base wages by about $1.1 billion annually over the life of the contract, according to Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu.” That’s all? More: “Management will have to offset increases with higher productivity. Boeing recently announced it would lay off some 17,000 people which will help offset cost increases.” • But not executive bonuses or stock buybacks. Naturally.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 44 Fear (previous close: 48 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 60 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 4 at 1:09:25 PM ET. Quite a swing.
Rapture Index: Closes up one on Interest Rates. “Long term rates are moving higher” [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 182. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) •
Gallery
Millet is great. Notice his attempt to catch work (“transfer of energy by a force acting on an object as it is displaced”) in paint, especially with the middle figure’s raised arm. (John Berger spotted the same thing with a potato in mid-air, being dropped into a furrow by a peasant.)
The Washerwomen pic.twitter.com/rbJjkoraSY
— Jean-Francois Millet (@artistmillet) October 24, 2024
I wish there were an Impressionist Millet (or a Cubist Millet) but AFAIK there is not.
Permaculture
“Using Leaves For Insulation Around My Studio” [Full Moon Fiber Art]. “I started yesterday and finished raking leaves today. I filled up 16 forty gallons bags with leaves and put them on three sides of my studio. The only side without leaves is the south facing where the foundation is so low it’s hardly visible…. And it’s a great use of the leaves. In the spring I’ll burn them in my equinox bon fire. The bags are heavy duty, so I’ll save the ones that survive the winter and use them again next year.” • I’ve done this and it really works; converted the coldest room in the house to the warmest. I recycle the leaves for mulch. The leaves have to be dry. Probably not too late for those of you in cold climates!
“New York Times Tech Workers Go on Strike” [New York Times]. The deck: “The Times Tech Guild represents more than 600 software developers and others who run the back-end systems behind The Times’s digital operation.” More: “The two sides negotiated until late Sunday. The sticking points in recent days were over whether they could get a “just cause” provision in their contract, which means workers can be terminated only for misconduct or another such reason; pay increases and pay equity; and return-to-office policies. Times management said in an email to workers on Sunday that it had offered a 2.5 percent annual wage increase, a minimum 5 percent pay increase for promotions and a $1,000 ratification bonus. It also said that the company would maintain its current in-office work requirements of two days a week through June 2025, while allowing employees to work fully remotely for three weeks per year. The guild said in a statement that its members would protest daily outside the company’s headquarters starting at 9 a.m. on Monday. “They have left us no choice but to demonstrate the power of our labor on the picket line,” Kathy Zhang, the guild’s unit chair, said in the statement. “Nevertheless, we stand ready to bargain and get this contract across the finish line.” The guild said it was asking readers to honor its digital picket line by not playing Times Games products, such as Wordle, and not using the Cooking app. It added that it had filed numerous unfair labor practice charges against The Times with the National Labor Relations Board over the company’s return-to-office mandates and its attempts to interrogate members about their intentions to strike.”
“New York Times Tech Workers Go on Strike on Eve of 2024 Election, Alleging Unfair Labor Practices” [Variety]. “The Times Tech Guild represents more than 600 engineers, data managers, designers, software developers and tech personnel who develop and run the systems that power the paper’s website and apps. If the strike continues into Tuesday, it will be the first to coincide with a presidential election in the NewsGuild since the 1964 Detroit newspaper strike, according to the union…. None of the Times’ writers or editors who are covering the elections are directly involved in the Times Tech Guild strike. A spokesperson for the Times said the company has ‘robust plans in place to ensure that we are able to fulfill our mission and serve our readers.'” • IOW, scabs.
“Support Striking New York Times Tech Workers by Breaking Your Wordle Streak” [Gizmodo]. “The New York Times’s software engineers are on strike right now and they have a simple request for readers: don’t play Wordle or the crossword puzzle this week. The Times Tech Guild represents more than 600 tech workers who maintain The Times’ digital new empire. The New York Times is a storied news organization but it’s also a tech company. It has thrived when so many other news outlets have failed, in part, because its pivot to digital was smart and robust. Games like Wordle, Spelling Bee, Connections, and the Crossword drive huge numbers to the Times. The NYT Cooking App is beloved by many and brings in a lot of revenue. But all that tech requires a wealth of backend support. In 2022, the Times’ tech workers unionized and they’ve been negotiating with management ever since. They signaled back in September that they were prepared to strike and would do it around election day. According to a statement from the Guild, the current pain points between it and management are: return to office mandates, limits on subcontracting, pay and equity, and “just cause” job protections. Workers want a provision in their contract that would ensure employees are only terminated for misconduct or similar reasons. ‘We have been sounding the alarm for weeks and cleared our schedules to get this contract done before the election week deadline,’ Susan DeCarava, the president of The NewsGuild of New York said in a statement. ‘As workers and subscribers, we’re disheartened that the Times is willing to gamble with its election coverage to avoid agreeing to a fair and just contract. We remain ready to bargain and look forward to reaching an agreement our members at Times Tech Guild will ratify.’ Striking the day before the election is a calculated move designed to put maximum pressure on the paper at a time when its readership is spiking. The vaunted ‘election needle’ is a staple of the Times’ coverage and it doesn’t run without the support of back-end tech workers.”
“Diddy makes shock attempt to silence grand jury witness who made bombshell claims about rapper’s ‘freak-off’ parties” [Daily Mail]. “Attorneys for Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs have made a shocking attempt to silence a grand jury witness who has made bombshell claims about the rapper’s so-called ‘freak-off’ parties. Lawyers Marc Agnifilo and Tony Geragos submitted a letter to the federal judge overseeing the hip hop mogul’s sex trafficking and racketeering case, asking him to expedite their motion for a gag order on witnesses, citing a ‘deluge of improper pretrial publicity,’ ABC News reports. It says the statements made by certain individuals are ‘undermining Mr. Combs’ right to a fair trial and the integrity of the grand jury proceedings.’ The lawyers hit out specifically at Combs’ former friend, Courtney Burgess, who has claimed in multiple interviews he has seen videos of major celebrities being ‘victimized’ at Diddy’s notorious ‘freak-off’ parties.” • I don’t care about “celebrities.” How about executives or politicians? People with real power?
I am not feeling wired today.
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If Watercooler could speak it might at this moment pose this question.
You can always play the bird songs and enjoy the plant until the middle of the sandwich arrives.
re: “Yes, I will do an Election Eve live blog tomorrow! –lambert”
Time travel at NC? / ;)
I was wondering about that, too. I’m sure he probably meant an election night live blog, but it did give me a mild chuckle.
Eve -> Night, sorry.
Doors will open at 8:00PM (and man, do I hate the time change).
If people like that lady are involved in validating our election, there’s no chance it will be fair.
Don’t worry, the cons are all trying to cancel her
Her body language was a bit annoying being as it was schoolmarmish anger, arrogance, and contempt. Even if I had agreed with her, how she was treating the other woman was insulting.
> Her body language was a bit annoying being as it was schoolmarmish anger, arrogance, and contempt.
A Weberian ideal type, as I keep saying.
As I was saying this AM – this country is really struggling right now with an overabundance of Cluster B psychiatric disorders – basically – borderline, narcissistic and histrionic are the main ones involved. This is now an epidemic – 30 years ago, all of these were very very rare and hardly ever played out in public like this. Multiple studies I have read about this and I am sure there are very detailed books on the way, but it is a plague. Theories abound from the relative permissiveness of the 1970s, the huge increase in sexual abuse in the 1970s all the way to social media.
At this point, who knows? – But it is becoming a real problem. And this lady is an obvious classic case. Much more common on the blue side of things – and this kind of thing is what I have been seeing in my office – I am deeply troubled about how this is all going down no matter who wins tomorrrow.
“30 years ago, all of these were very very rare and hardly ever played out in public like this.”
Yeah, but 40 to 50 years ago when I was coming of age, things got pretty hot and heavy: what with Vietnam war,the draft, assassinations of prominent politicians and activists, city-burning riots, mass demonstrations and the like. Plus I was raised by parents who made it through the Great Depression and WW2. Maybe that’s why I’m observing the current electoral Sturm und Drang with a degree of fatalistic equanimity that some of my TDS infected friends find unsettling. Not that there isn’t real desperation out there. It’s just that most of it so far as the MSM is concerned is of the quiet sort.
>>>It’s just that most of it so far as the MSM is concerned is of the quiet sort.
Most of the desperation is of quiet dying, which is easily ignored by pointing the cameras and microphones away from the growing number of American slums and shantytowns and their increasing number of inhabitants.
You’re the doc, but I’m not sure I buy this is a mental disorder. Seems to be more a function of propaganda exposure. I have to believe people want to do the right thing. Each side is convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt they are dealing with the devil himself and behave accordingly. The psyops coordinators are the only winners.
Thanks, IMDoc for giving clinical validation to what I’ve been instinctively sensing.
I was driving back home from the airport here in Atlanta early this morning, around 6AM. That’s just before the rush hour insanity begins, and it was still dark, with traffic building but not yet gridlocked. On the shuttle from the airport to my car, I heard one other motorist honking madly at it like it was NYC rush-hour traffic at mid-day. I remarked to the driver that people seem to be unusually angry these days, but at that hour, when most folks are sleeping, it was still a shocker. Then, driving home, on the interstate there was a truck pulling a trailer with heavy equipment that was racing past me, and I saw it almost rear end another pickup in front of it in the left-hand lane. I actually braked (I was in the lane to the right maybe 5-6 car lengths behind) and braced myself because I thought this nutcase was going to cause a massive high speed collision, which at that speed and with the number of vehicles on the road probably would have killed somebody.
Now, this is Atlanta, but I’ve never seen such behavior at a time when the roads are mostly clear.
I think staying home for the next 36-48 hours would be a good idea.
I don’t know, IM Doc, when I’m overseas, I see people vociferously arguing, worse than the exchange in that video. As a young man in Italy, for instance, I witnessed public outbursts that were totally shocking to me as an Anglo. People accosting each other, gesticulating, speaking incredibly fast and stridently on topics I could not follow, though the gist was full of insults. No one bat an eye! It just kind of fizzled out. However, not all of these experience were in the argumentative mode.
In Rome a very beautiful woman, one of the most beautiful I’ve ever seen, was walking with her luggage on her way to her terminal. Several men burst out very, very loudly–basically shouting–‘Bella! Bella!” and pounding their chests. The men crowded after her, and of course, the woman did not even glance at them. They were nothing to her. It was remarkable.
In the United States, these men would’ve been video taped and pilloried as creeps and predators in waiting. Perhaps someone would claim they have a personality disorder.
Passionate argument in the public sphere is good. I hope our culture trends more that way. People should be frank, and we are not emotionless robots. Let 100 Karens Bloom!
But there was a nice cybersecurity lady on 60 minutes last night that assured us that our elections are most definitely free and fair, and the main problem is the doubt being seeded by Russian, Iranian and NK disinformation. At least I’m guessing that was what she said based on the intro… I couldn’t stomach actually watching it.
Don’t worry, if you listen to NPR, any if their programs today, it was all , Russia, Iran and China meddling in our elections. To Trump’s advantage of course. Except one expert did say that those bad actors were not necessarily working in favor of one sort or the other, they just want to sow distrust in our institutions.
> But there was a nice cybersecurity lady on 60 minutes last night
Does that lady have a name? I did some searching on CBS 60 minutes and can’t find anything. Readers?
Does the 60 minutes lady not remember Bush v Gore? Or did the Russians infiltrate the Supreme Court back then?
Really getting tired of this idea that USians can’t think for themselves.
If we’re talking about the 35 year national security expert, may I point out that we were WAY more secure 35 years ago. This is not exactly a track record I would want to parade around as success:
Living Paycheck To Paycheck Statistics 2024
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/living-paycheck-to-paycheck-statistics-2024/
Plus, with regards to national security and war, with the NYT finally acknowledging that things are NOT going well in Ukraine, and the increasing possibility that Israel gets solidly thumped by Iran, we’re not looking too well in what was supposedly her wheel house.
What has she got to brag about? Being handed a world empire and [family blogging] it into the ground in record time? Really not something I would brag about.
One candidate endorsed by Niki Haley and the other by Liz Cheney. ‘Nuf said.
I am going crazy trying to understand where the Palo Alto area wastewater H5/avian virus is coming from: https://data.wastewaterscan.org/tracker?charts=Ci4QASABSABSBjM3NDMwYVIGMjU0ODE5WgdJbmZBX0g1eKkBigEGZjhkNjc5wAEB&selectedChartId=f8d679
If you look at the bottom of the page you’ll see that it is something new. There was a tiny blip in October, and now there is an insanely huge surge (in September there was also a huge out of season Influenza A surge; it is not clear if that was bird flu; I’m not sure the were specifically testing for it then). Is it from birds pooping into the reservoirs? Is it somehow from the cows? How could it be from the cows???? Is it from people from who have consumed milk and yogurt? But people in Palo Alto wouldn’t be eating more than people elsewhere; if anything there would have more vegans (though not many). Could it have anything to do with covid vaccination (it’s almost unviversal here). It is crazy high in Turlock, too, but they have cows. It is so confusing.
> I am going crazy trying to understand where the Palo Alto area wastewater H5/avian virus is coming from:
Thank you for working on this. Please keep us posted.
I don’t know enough about how material other than that flushed from toilets gets into wastewater (which is supposed to be separate from stormwater, no?) Lagoons? An agricultural college?
Thank you kareninca.
You may want to check the bird migration maps to see if they correlate with the wastewater data for your area. Here is the main map:
https://birdcast.info/migration-tools/live-migration-maps/
If you want to drill down to individual counties, use the dashboard:
https://dashboard.birdcast.info/
Once you have selected your county or state, you can choose previous dates and see if the migratory bird traffic correlates. There might be a lag time after a migration peak before the effects show up, so check for heavy migration a week or so before a wastewater peak.
Wastewater might also be influenced by rain/runoff which then washes accumulated bird droppings into storm drains, etc. The September peak may be the result of heavy bird migration followed by significant rain. Just a thought…
Another detail to consider is if the Palo Alto waste water system is combined, that is the storm water and the sewer system are combined and all runoff is sent to the waste water treatment plant.
This webpage makes me think that it is not, so unless the migratory birds are using the toilet, the only source is human: https://www.cityofpaloalto.org/Departments/Public-Works/Watershed-Protection/Stormwater-Home-Page
Just a little rain so far. As for birds passing through, it’s a good time for raptor fans to go to Hawk Hill.
My first guess would be from the birdlife that enjoys the South Bay marshes
However, I just looked at the chart and on mobile the chart is binary, either detected or not detected with no scale. Somy guess is birdlife or infected humans but possibly in small numbers.
Oh. Wow. Will.i.am. They’re really bringing out the big guns now. /sarc
2006 called, they want the second string from the Black Eyed Peas back.
Reminds me of the scene in the final act of Leon where Gary Oldman’s character is freaking out about the deteriorating situation and tells his subordinate to get “EVERYONE!”.
Definitely the energy the Dems are giving off right now, valid or not.
Biden won. He made it to the finish line still in office despite the most extraordinary litany of Executive branch crimes ever. Almost all the tin cans got kicked across the finish line.
This is going to create a major mental health crisis. If Trump wins tomorrow, the headlines for the rest of this year will be about Ukraine’s collapse, Israel backing itself into a corner, Burisma scandal, Afghanistan withdrawl, COVID and Wuhan, the so-called COVID vax, the infant vax schedule, monkeypox, the Cheneys, govt obstruction of Congressional investigations, January 6 law enforcement embeds, Secret Service failures, lawyer-witness conflicts, Congressional sedition and fraud, etc, etc.
Your candidate has lost and now everyone’s being indicted and OMG Trump is coming for us! No, Trump is just coming for the bad man who bites children. Orange man now good, biting man was always bad.
> despite the most extraordinary litany of Executive branch crimes ever.
I have to disagree. Bush was worse (warrantless surveillance, torture, gaslighting us into Iraq, whacking a few million civilians when we were there, etc.).
Don’t count Biden out yet, the best is yet to come!
But if Kamala loses, Biden better bow out to let her through the glass ceiling!
But Obama retroactively ratified and legitimized everything Bush did. Is anybody going to do that for Biden?
>Biden won. He made it to the finish line still in office despite the most extraordinary litany of Executive branch crimes ever. Almost all the tin cans got kicked across the finish line.
Hold on there, he’s still the “President ” until Jan 20/2025.
Still plenty of time to Eff things up. Say, get us officially into WW3…
Hope Kamala isn’t closing.
And not entirely unrelated, new Alastair Crooke takes a philosophical look at warmongers and their “narratives.”
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/11/04/netanyahus-imaginary-war-narrative-strategy-if-it-works-fine-if-not-no-big-deal-well-try-something-else/
It includes this tidbit
“One such event seemingly happened last Saturday, when it appears that the Israeli strike on Iran suffered an unexpected ‘major hitch’ rather early in the SEAD operation (Suppressing Enemy Air Defences) to suppress and destroy Iran’s air defences. Apparently the first wave of attack was intended as the first step – once Iranian airspace had been secured – to pave the way for the subsequent F-35 strike package armed with conventional bombs.
The unexpected event – ‘Israeli media reported that an “unknown air defence system” was used to shoot down targets over Tehran province’. Reportedly, the Israeli operation was scrubbed soon after, and the victory narrative – later to be taken up by the WSJ (among many others) – was loudly proclaimed.”
He also claims the jets were over Iraq, not Jordan. But if the above is true it puts a further wrinkle on the Israeli fighter jet cult mentioned in Links. As America has found, bombing those who can’t shoot back gives a heady sense of supremacy while those who can shoot back put you in tiger cages. Time for Israeli hubris to produce Israel’s Vietnam? Contra Crooke I think history does have rules, just not the ones the bomber boys think.
From X via Citizen Free Press:
Argues for 2020 having been a massive cheat. That or the polls are gaslighting us. Both good guesses!
> Early voting numbers for Democrats are down 700,000 from 2020. Republican ballots are basically the same. Was 2020 a mirage.
What’s original source on that? There’s a ton of unauthenticated tweets running around, universally tendentious.
Still, if true, it augers well for the Trump campaign.
“Argues for” isn’t good enough. Please keep the focus on 2024.
the outcome of PA depends on (in no order): the Amish, and non-white turnout inside Philadelphia city limits, and fracking v. anti-fracking (which correlates with a lot of other existing issues)
These numbers are referred to as “the latest numbers from the state” at about 7:50 in the video, (WGAL8, Lancaster)
DEMOCRAT BALLOTS RETURNED | 997,450
REPUBLICAN BALLOTS RETURNED | 587,546
OTHER PARTIES | 205,323
I got excited about “other parties”, but it probably includes independent voters. I’m with Mark on this one, and I am extremely skeptical of reports of “record enthusiasm” and “record turnout,” which I view as foaming the runway for cheating by mail-in ballot strategies.
Here are 2020 numbers from Electproject (Source: Data provided by Pennsylvania Secretary of State’s office)
Party Returned Ballots
Democrats 1,702,484
Republicans 623,404
Minor 20,111
No Party Affiliation 283,673
TOTAL 2,629,672 100.0 3,087,524 85.2
In 2020, EVERYONE in Pennsylvania got an absentee ballot automatically in the mail.
In 2024, Pennsylvanians had to request a mail in ballot by October 28th or go to the polls to vote.
Ah! So they reverted from the Covid era. That makes sense!
The Robert Barnes and Rich Baris ‘final’ podcast of What are the odds? #85 has just wrapped up at 2 ½ hours. I have not listened to the whole thing yet but there are some interesting things about this. There is a short clip of Mark Halperin at about 19:40 and soon after that Robert joins the show. He makes some short reference to him being interviewed by the Brits and this may be a reference to his appearance on The Duran yesterday. What I found interesting was Baris’ report that the Selzer poll (the Iowa Poll) which was released last weekend may be biased. Ann Selzer was calling her friends Friday boasting she was ”Gonna drop a bomb on this SOB” with this poll at 37 minutes of the podcast. I am sure the 700,000 drop in Dem early voting is covered (Halperin alludes to it) but haven’t found a source yet. There is a link to that show on Youtube here.
(Baris is a pollster from Florida and a conservative.)
I just received an urgent text from an outfit requesting a $20 donation with a 6X match to stop Trump in Pennsylvania. Uh, a little late for that, folks — what could you possibly do with that money in a matter of hours that would make a significant difference? But hey, may as well make a last minute play for coin for the consulting operations.
Just a brief glance through my Twitter feed – mainly consisting of my old friends – daily kos types –
1) They are already spiking the football- end zone dancing – this is over – the blue wave is here – no one that I have seen is actually explaining this rationally. 2) The women early vote is way down – because – every woman in America is waiting to take their daughters to the polls tomorrow – it is going to be historic and in their face – and they deserve every bit of it – that is the overall message. We cannot wait to see Red America in tears – every last one of them will be made to suffer for what they have done – etc. Seriously – that is what is happening. We have gone beyond election results – that is already a foregone conclusion – to already debating who will be the best Secretary of State, etc.
All kinds of comments in reply are stating that I am taking my kids/sons to the polls and we are voting for Trump – but there is no breaking through. The basic response – “Who cares about your a hole sons – we are having a party tomorrow”
My own wife and I have been hauling people to early voting all week – almost all elderly Dems – in a blue area – we have heard not a peep about abortion – but we sure have heard about immigrants and inflation.
She and I will be taking our sons tomorrow – and we will not be voting for Kamala – I wonder how much of this is going on as well – the daily kos types absolutely shoot this down in their comments – and call all kinds of names.
This premature end zone dancing really worries me tremendously. I have seen for the past month how fragile the Kamala voters are – if she is defeated – well, things are not going well.
But rest assured everyone – the blue wave is on the way – they are predicting Kamala into the 380s or so. It will be joy unspeakable and full of glory for the next 4 years.
Well – I still think this is a tight election – who knows who will win – but this behavior is not a good sign for the future of the country.
How everyone is doing with the Muslim vote.
https://consortiumnews.com/2024/11/04/asad-abukhalil-the-arab-vote/
https://www.cair.com/press_releases/cair-swing-state-data-shows-muslim-voters-hold-diverse-preferences-still-up-for-grabs-in-2024/
In reference to your mentioning the old tyme scrying method of divination via observing the entrails of sacrificed birds. We are not monsters anymore. We no longer “project” our faults onto the helpless carcases of animals. We are modern and credentialed! Today, we ‘own’ our peccadillos and scrutinize the spilled entrails of Politicos. Like the Kings in days of old, our Politicos agree to either “bring home the bacon” or become ‘longpig’ themselves.
There are many good things to be said about the Ancient Traditions.
Not a seer but I’m pretty sure that I could tell you a lot about any politician by examining their entrails. Diet has a lot to do with who we are!
I’d be glad to examine as many as you like!
To the NSA, CIA, FBI, and NGO staff members who are now in the chat, no one here is suggesting that any of these gutless politicians should be gutted so that we can divine how they were bought and sold./sarc
(Tags added to prevent biased observers from reporting me and others to our overlords…)
I say those NYT’s IT workers best be careful… If things run fine in their absence, NYTs might start going all Elon on them (dump 50% as overhead).
Wouldn’t playing the games (and breaking them by overloading) better make their case? However, i will obey their ask and skip the games until this is resolved.
If only I’d been on Swindlers List by purchasing a Bible or gold high top sneakers or what have you on offer, shielding me from those too astute to purchase such useless kitsch in order to save themselves from regret and/or consequences at the Google-ag Archipelago
“Harris’ economic policies are less likely to produce runaway inflation and deficits than Trump’s”
1.5% inflation with four years of Trump, ~20% with BidenHarris.
“I will fix things if you vote me into office, says woman currently in office.”
I like track records, much more accurate than promisnosticating.
I agree that the headline is pure BS, but Covid and our absurd timeline present a number of unaccounted confounders for your data.
I have added orts and scraps. There should be a lot more, but I must do some stuff before the big day tomorrow.
Wukchumnis North Rim of the Grand Canyon is the definition of a “Defensible Position.” Just ask the Anasazi and Puebloan peoples from a millennia ago.
I’ve stayed overnight here and it’s amazing.
https://thevanescape.com/toroweap-overlook-grand-canyon/
One could observe that Millet, by his choices of subject was a predecessor and influence on the Muralistas of the early and mid-twentieth century in Mexico and points south. Dare we accuse Millet of being an early Social Realist? Some of the early Van Gogh exhibits this esthetic. Turning a bit outre, I can see Lautrec’s images of the prostitutes, ‘professional’ dancers, and assorted “lowlifes” of Mauve Decade Paris as an urban version of the Millet milieu.
I’m voting Dem tomorrow for one reason and one reason only: Khan, Kanter, Chopra. Biden brought us them – probably the single best thing the Dems have done at the national level in my Gen X lifetime – even if most of the rest of what he brought us was dreck or worse. Will Harris keep them around if she wins? I’m not sure I think she will. But Trump certainly will give them the axe if he wins. I wrote letters to my Congressman and Senators today explaining why I was voting for Harris and making it clear that if she does give them the boot, I go back to 3rd party protest votes. Hopefully they and others put pressure on Harris to leave these excellent regulators in place.
Funny. I voted for Trump today because I thought that the damage he will cause would be more fixable than the damage Kamala causes.
But then again, I voted for Biden in 2020. WTF do I know?
To each their own, but we all know how pressuring a candidate after they have won works.
It doesn’t.
If she wins, they are gone, especially Kahn. Look at who surrounds Harris.
IIRC, Vance has said some sympathetic things about Lina Khan. I don’t know how influential he would be on policy, if DJT is elected.
RE: She has promised to seek consensus and compromise, two words Trump has rarely uttered.
Maybe Trump decided to play the Face rather than the Heel for the last week, but I’ve been seeing quite a few nice ads portraying Trump as the unifier and president for everybody. Personally I prefer the borscht belt insult comic version.
> She has promised
She said Biden was sharp as a tack, too. I write off whatever they say.
Compromise with the basket of garbage / MAGA supporters….Got it of course she will \sarc
Bush 41 promised no new taxes…promises by politicians are like unicorns & leprechauns….
Mostly true, I think. However, T did stop the horrible trade deals the TPP and TPIP as he pledged he would during his 2018 campaign. That was something a lot of US union members wanted. Maybe that’s an outlier. / ;)
Nothing has changed in 50 years. Dems and Repubs have traded offices at the Capitol and their failed policies – for the citizens – have each built upon those of their predecessors. They have both worked hard to undo the regulated capitalism of the New Deal and it has been an astounding success. How to explain it all? Simply follow the money…as always. From four year non-stop election cycles to who wins the election, it is not policy that matters but money. We now rate our candidates by the amounts of money they raise as if that is the same as a policy debate. We have monetized ourselves.
The Choice Tomorrow is between two Politicians who have both pledged to commit several felonies in order to enable genocide.
ITAR, the Foreign Assistance Act, the Leahy Amendment and the Genocide Convention are of no importance when campaign contributions are at stake.
The open corruption and craven depravity of Western elites shows that their sense of privilege and impunity is without limit.
I don’t believe it is.
Taibbi and Kirn, this week’s ATW. no paywall.
ATW Livestream Tonight at 8 PM ET/7 PM CT
https://www.racket.news/p/atw-livestream-tonight-at-8-pm-et7-c8d