By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, Bay Creek Nature Preserve (gated community, restricted access), Northampton, Virginia, United States. Plus a mourning dove.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Today’s RCP polling: Kamala closing, but Trump holds.
- Election prediction round-up .
- Boeing workers sign contract, News Guild tech workers on strike at NYT.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Countdown!
NEW Today’s RCP Poll Averages:
Lambert here: There were some changes, so one last time. If we ignore the concept of margin of error, today’s survey, combined with Friday’s, says that although the Blue Wall is now Kamala’s, her surge has been arrested. Recall, however, that the polls lag: Big Mo is fickle! Then again, if you look at the electoral college results with the Toss-Up states turned red or blue, Trump is stable and ahead. (I’m “dancing with the one that brung ya” on method, here; I’ve watched RCP consistently all year, hoping the average would defeat polarization and manipulation, and we’ll know at some point, well, in the near future whether that was an appropriate choice.) Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
“Our Final 2024 Ratings” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. “We mentioned a few weeks ago that we misplaced our Crystal Ball. As an update, we regret to say that we still have not found it. So no final ratings this year. Have fun on Tuesday!… OK, fine, we’ll give it a try. We are not going to try to concoct some grand theory as to why one candidate may be favored in this election. We’ve tried them all out, and we don’t find anything that is convincing—if we did, we would have said so by now. We will leave it to the Wednesday morning quarterbacks—or is it Thursday or Friday?—to tell us how clear it was that Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would win. These things seem obvious in hindsight, but the outcome sure doesn’t seem obvious to us now. The polls, collectively, aren’t really providing a clear signal—and, even if they were, we’d likely be suspicious of that signal, given polling challenges in the last two presidential elections. Let’s just get to the 7 key states. What follows is based on off-record conversations with contacts, our sense of the polling picture, past history, and more.” Then follows their analysis of the swing states (and Selzer; in essence, she has form and could be directionally correct, and there are other tremors in the Midwest, especially Kansas). Here is their map:
270toWin’s non-call, the consensus view:
They do, however, have a handy interactive combinations tool to play with the swing states.
“FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast” [Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin]. “At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%). Of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exact 269-269 Electoral College ties: these ties are likely to eventually result in Trump wins in the U.S. House of Representatives.”
“Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?” [FiveThirtyEight]. “538’s final forecast for the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is officially out, and it’s a real nail-biter. Our model gives Harris a 50 out of 100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. Our model gives Trump a 49 out of 100 chance. The model shifted toward Harris slightly on Monday, Nov. 4, after high-quality polls released over the weekend showed her tied or ahead in the key northern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Polls from more frequently polled, but less well-regarded, firms had shown a more Trump-leaning race but also moved in Harris’s direction Monday. A close race in the polls, though, does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close. All seven swing states are still within a normal polling error of going to the candidate who is currently ‘losing’ in each. While the polls have identified a close race, our model shows what you should expect if those polls are off.”
Allan Lichtman once more:
He has accurately predicted 9 of the last 10 Presidential elections & despite this #election2024 being historically tight @AllanLichtman stands firmly by his prediction that #KamalaHarris will win. He explains why: pic.twitter.com/dTHckj3Pol
— Rosemary Church (@rosemaryCNN) November 4, 2024
“How the Election Could Unfold: Four Scenarios” [Nate Cohn, New York Times]. “Here are four scenarios for what could happen in this election. They’re all plausible — so plausible that each might seem obvious in hindsight. [1] If Kamala Harris wins big, we should have seen it coming all along. Democrats have won election after election since Mr. Trump’s upset victory in 2016. [2] In today’s polarized country, what could be less surprising than a more-or-less repeat of the 2020 election: yet another close election across the battleground states, with few swings from four years ago? [3] Yet the polls suggest that the 2024 election might look more like the 2022 midterms than the 2020 race: an election where different states, regions and demographic groups swing significantly, but in different directions. [4] If Mr. Trump wins big, we should have seen it coming all along. On paper, this election should be a Republican victory.” • From the enthusiastic tone, Cohn endorses [1]. But there is this cautionary prose in [4]: “In this scenario, Ms. Harris’s apparent strength among white and older voters, or her resilience in the Midwestern battlegrounds, is nothing more than another polling mirage — in exactly the same states where the polls got it wrong four and eight years ago. Add in Mr. Trump’s gains among young, Black and Hispanic voters and you end up with a decisive victory for him. It would mark the beginning of a new era of politics.”
“Why prediction markets swung toward Harris before Election Day” [Axios]. “Former President Trump’s chances of recapturing the White House fell sharply over the weekend across prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Then they climbed back up. Volatility like this underlines why using betting markets to gauge the status of the presidential race is tricky. And yet, prediction and betting markets have emerged this year as a powerful force in shaping public opinion — and campaign messaging — about the horse race. Prediction markets are misnamed. They are betting lines intended to provide a price to wager on at a given moment in time — not necessarily to forecast whether the outcome is probable.” • And they can be gamed.
* * * Prognostication:
Viral baby hippo Moo Deng predicts Trump will win by eating cake with local spelling of Donald Trump’s name written on top pic.twitter.com/4yOwhqtoRG
— New York Post (@nypost) November 4, 2024
* * * Election map (1):
Election Touchscreen Map Takes Deeper Look Inside Key Swing Voter | Onion News Network
ONN political analyst Jason Copeland breaks down the latest presidential polling trends going on inside Pennsylvania resident Nick Camden. pic.twitter.com/F3LapdLCHC
— The Onion (@TheOnion) November 4, 2024
Election map (2):
My final prediction map for the election pic.twitter.com/REhD0W82ZE
— greg (@greg16676935420) November 4, 2024
Election map (3):
Early predictions of tonight’s election are in and it’s a landslide victory for the oligarchs. pic.twitter.com/ZPTSYxuBMS
— Danny Haiphong (@SpiritofHo) November 5, 2024
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
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Stay safe out there!
Transmission: Covid
“SARS-CoV-2 variants induce increased inflammatory gene expression but reduced interferon responses and heme synthesis as compared with wild type strains” [Nature]. From the Abtract: “We analysed transcriptional signatures of COVID-19 patients comparing those infected with wildtype (wt), alpha, delta or omicron strains seeking insights into infection in Asymptomatic cases….
Stats Watch
Supply Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Manager’s Index in the US increased to 58.9 in October 2024, the highest since September 2022, compared to 58.6 in the previous month, and pointing to a solid growth in the US logistics sector. The overall index has now increased for eleven consecutive months, providing strong evidence that the logistics industry is back on solid footing.” • And with it, the warehouses in central Pennsylvania?
Banks: “The FDIC has accidentally released a list of companies it bailed out for billions in the Silicon Valley Bank collapse” [Fortune]. “When federal regulators stepped in to backstop all of Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits, they saved thousands of small tech startups and prevented what could have been a catastrophic blow to a sector that relied heavily on the lender. But the decision to guarantee all accounts above the $250,000 federal deposit insurance limit also helped bigger companies that were in no real danger. Sequoia Capital, the world’s most prominent venture-capital firm, got covered the $1 billion it had with the lender. Kanzhun Ltd., a Beijing-based tech company that runs mobile recruiting app Boss Zhipin, received a backstop for more than $900 million. ”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Machinists approve new contract, ending strike” [Seattle Times]. “Machinists union members voted Monday to approve the company’s most recent contract offer, enabling Boeing to restart work at assembly plants in Everett and Renton and at parts plants throughout the region. Results announced late Monday showed the offer was approved with 59% of ballots cast in favor. ‘This is a victory, we can hold our heads high,’ said Jon Holden, president of the striking Machinists union local. ‘We all stood strong, and we achieved something that we hadn’t achieved the last 22 years.’ ‘Now it’s our job to get back to work and start building the airplanes, increase the rates and bring this company back to financial success,” he continued. Asked Monday if there would be lingering anger over Boeing’s tactic of threatening to reduce the next offer if this one was rejected, Holden said it ‘was hard bargaining on both sides, and there’s always hard feelings.’ ;We’ll get through it and we’ll get back to building planes,’ Holden said. ‘We’ll work on the relationship later.'” • Union members in the readership please comment: I would have liked to see a Union seat on Boeing’s board; could they do worse? I would also have liked for the contract to end on May Day, 2028. The machinist leadership strikes me as…. unimaginative. As below–
Manufacturing: “Boeing Workers Ratify Contract With 43.65 Percent Wage Increase Over 4 Years” [Truthout]. “IAM’s international president, Brian Bryant, called the contract ‘a new standard in the aerospace industry — one that sends a clear statement that aerospace jobs must be middle-class careers in which workers can thrive.’ ‘Workers in the aerospace industry, led by the IAM — the most powerful aerospace union in the world — will not settle for anything less than the respect and family-sustaining wages and benefits they need and deserve,’ said Bryant. ‘This agreement reflects the positive results of workers sticking together, participating in workplace democracy, and demonstrating solidarity with each other and with the community during a necessary and effective strike.'” • But–
Manufacturing: “Boeing factory strike ends as workers vote to accept contract” [Associated Press]. Reactions were mixed even among union members who voted to accept the contract. Although she voted ‘yes,’ Seattle-based calibration specialist Eep Bolaño said the outcome was ‘most certainly not a victory.’ Bolaño said she and her fellow workers made a wise but infuriating choice to accept the offer. ‘We were threatened by a company that was crippled, dying, bleeding on the ground, and us as one of the biggest unions in the country couldn’t even extract two-thirds of our demands from them. This is humiliating,’ she said. For other workers like William Gardiner, a lab lead in calibration services, the revised offer was a cause for celebration. ‘I’m extremely pumped over this vote,’ said Gardiner, who has worked for Boeing for 13 years. ‘We didn’t fix everything — that’s OK. Overall, it’s a very positive contract.'”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Stock Is Falling. Don’t Blame the Union, Workers Voted to End the Strike” [Barron’s]. Thanks, Barron’s. “Wages and benefit increases will raise Boeing’s costs between $1 billion and $2 billion a year by the end of the contract, according to Wall Street estimates. That will amount to about 2% of Boeing’s total costs later in the decade, when plane production has recovered from a decline in recent years.” 2%. More: “While a new jet could help restore balance between Boeing and Airbus, it won’t be cheap. New plane programs can cost as much as $30 billion to develop, according to BofA Securities analyst Ronald Epstein. That spending shows up in higher spending on research and development over many years.”
Manufacturing: “Godfather Of Aircraft Leasing Outlines Boeing’s Next Steps” [Airline Ratings]. “What is the most likely aircraft that will ultimately emerge, and how close are we? It will probably be a large single-aisle or maybe a mini twin-aisle. But this is not a good time to launch a new narrowbody, we are not pushing it at the moment, they have to get their house in order. The A320 family is now almost 35 years old, and the 737-200 was certified in December 1968, that’s a 56-year-old design. So it is time for some new stuff, but nobody has the courage or the money to do it. The technology is probably available, but the economics of that new technology is not favourable for the airlines. The maintenance costs now outweigh the fuel savings, that’s not a good equation. Our customers rather want to stabilize their existing new technology aircraft like Boeing’s 737MAXs/787s or Airbus’s A350s/A320neos, they want to see those things running reliably.”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 44 Fear (previous close: 48 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 60 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 4 at 1:09:25 PM ET. Quite a swing.
Rapture Index: Closes up one on Interest Rates. “Long term rates are moving higher” [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 182. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) •
Our Famously Free Press
Not quite sure where to file this, since it’s certainly not a plant. From Wukchumni:
Wukchumni writes: “Newspaper Rock, Utah.”
Gallery
Birch Forest, 1903 #artbots #klimt pic.twitter.com/kV2gYQubrc
— Gustav Klimt (@artistgklimt) November 3, 2024
“New York Times tech worker strike stretches into Election Day” [FOX]. “The New York Times woke up to Election Day with hundreds of its tech staffers still on strike on the most important news day of the year. ‘We are back out on the picket line today,’ the Times Tech Guild wrote on X. ‘We know this is a hard day to be on strike for our members but we want to be clear: We are here because of the decisions of @NYTimes management.'” • Commentary:
As you may have read, our colleagues in the Tech Guild are on strike. While they don't play a role in the model itself, they built and maintain the infrastructure that feeds us data and lets us publish on the internet
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 5, 2024
The needle is stupid….
“Perplexity CEO offers AI company’s services to replace striking NYT staff” [TechCrunch]. • Oh.
I am not feeling wired today.
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:
TH writes: It’s fine if my little friend here doesn’t make the cut. It’s just that season where one finds them hanging around and though they are a bit unsettling, I found this fellow quite striking.” I will make an exception because of the lovely green shades of the plants in the background.
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert’s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:
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81 comments
Comments are closed.
For those observing the Wordle strike in support of NYTimes Tech Guild employees, here’s a free site that lets you do practice games. NOTE: you have to click on Make Your Own Wordle to get a fresh puzzle, the one preloaded never changes.
And to all those folks at Perplexity – a digital scab is still a scab.
re: “The FDIC has accidentally released a list of companies it bailed out for billions in the Silicon Valley Bank collapse” [Fortune]
riiight. And after that bailout the FDIC raised the cost for banks’s insurance payments per $ amounts covered to the FDIC for its coverage that hurt small regional and local banks disproportionately compared to the big banks, putting even more stress on the local hometown banks. Thanks, FDIC. / not
Did you catch that one of the tech companies they bailed out was HQ’d in China?
#WatchWhatTheyDoNotWhatTheySay
Committee to Save the World 2.0? Or are we further past the GFC extra-curricular action?
In any event, without that FDIC accidental release, how would the people ever find out what is being done? Still waiting on who is doing what to whom there. /:
I’m a finance person, and the FDIC bailout for all amounts above the insured amount really, really, really annoys me (my views are much more intense, but this is a family blog). Had they not done the bailout, yes, they might have blown up some smaller useful entrepreneurs, but they would have also vaporized a goodly number of overweening tech bros (and gals) and finance tyros who pretend to know how actual banking processes work. That vaporizing would have done quite a bit to halt the spread of The Stupid.
Yes, thank you. I’m not a finance person, but it was pretty obvious even to even a dense engineering geek like me that Obama just bailing out all those bank CEOs during the GFC was a horrible thing to do. Watch this clip where he says the GOP drove the car into the ditch:
Obama on GOP: I don’t want to give them the keys back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb6gp5Ga5q8
Even back then we all understood the Uniparty were bought and paid for by the oligarchs. He just gave the oligarchs trillions and put them right back in charge:
Bailout Costs vs Big Historical Events
https://ritholtz.com/2009/06/bailout-costs-vs-big-historical-events/
FDR really did save capitalism. Obama wrecked it.
Indeed. Because that bank failure was caused by white hot stupid on the part of the bank’s management. The Fed telegraphed the rate hikes that were on the way and the clowns at Silicon Valley bank did not adjust their balance sheet appropriately. Then when customers started to withdraw money, due to the bank refusing to pay much interest and customers looking for a better deal elsewhere, they took a bath on Treasuries they never should have had to liquidate in the first place.
Thanks for the rock art image, Wuk.
An old geologist I knew spent quite a bit of research effort on studying various ancient rock art sites in the US and the rock types of the different sites. His focus was on finding appropriate surface treatments that would preserve the engravings from erosion and vandalism.
Nice picture.
That image which bears quite the resemblance to ‘Keep on Truckin’ from the 1970’s, is just one of hundreds on the wall.
There’s a very proto peace symbol, too!
Spent a childhood in the late 60s early 70s in AZ wandering its desert. In some areas almost every rock has some art on it, pondering the generations that it took to achieve.
Just a general plea for those who suffer from anxiety like I do:
Take a deep breath. This too shall pass. If you find yourself unable to stop doom-scrolling, walk away from the laptop/device/TV and take a long walk. Practice self-care. Spend time with your favorite pet, a good book, a loved one, or your favorite adult beverage (only if you are not struggling with that.)
That’s not in any particular order. If you have all four, count your blessings.
I plan to fast from any media after 5pm tonight but I will be on the special election thread from NC.
I figure that whatever happens, the apocalypse isn’t coming soon. However, if the Buffalo Bills win the Super Bowl next January I reserve the right to change my mind. It wouldn’t be a bad way to go out.
After spending the past weekend with generally loved ones and making new friends, I’ll go with the adult beverage of choice. And in the very light of our balancing out of choices to make…I might be drinking a few Miller Lights. Yes the Bills winning in February would add a pleasant touch.
“It is Both” as their ( Miller Light ) advertising motto, is hardly a compromise but then again I make choices every day, like anyone else on where to direct my consumption and spending patterns.
*Election day pr*n can be tough to watch, but somebody has gotta to do it!
Thanks for the correction on the Super bowl date. Although, I can contrive an apocalyptic scenario where all the other 31 NFL teams are forced to forfeit due to apocalyptic events, are unable to field a full squad, and the Bills survive and are declared winner by default.
Followed by the anti-Christ arriving the next day, on cue.
I’ll bet the Anti-Christ wouldn’t have kicked that field goal wide right in 1991
LOL
Until the assassination of William McKinley is avenged the Bills will never win the Super Bowl. His ghost haunts Buffalo to this day.
Fellow Chris, I wish there was some way to serve drinks and food to Commentariat around a common table tonight. I’m sure many people feel uneasy today. I hope we see swift resolution so that people can stop worrying about what might happen and begin to process whatever our new reality will be.
> Fellow Chris, I wish there was some way to serve drinks and food to Commentariat around a common table tonight. I’m sure many people feel uneasy today.
This is a lovely thought. If readers send me images of food from their tables, and not just random images, I can print them in the live blog (probably selected; if there are hundreds, I’ll have to consider presentation options).
Um, yes, random image, (sorry), but a fav. / ;)
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/31/a0/41/31a041ba5e4990402b2ebb144cca2a2e.jpg
Just sent a picture of food. I don’t have a table, so it’s just of the food.
you don’t have a table???
a guess–you’re working late in your office?
No, I do not own a table. I have a tiny rolling desk that my computer sits on, and the plate barely fits in front of it.
When you’re kind of housing insecure, you don’t have much in the way of furniture, esp the bigger stuff. I don’t even have a mattress. I sleep on some pillows on the floor.
as i think i know (and have had treatment at) the hospital where you work, i’ve assumed you had a job, and so it’s not occurred to me that you might be “kind of housing insecure”. that sounds very hard. maybe you’ve already mentioned this on NC and i’ve missed it. i do know the housing/renting situation right now in VT is dire, for anyone not wealthy, even those who have jobs.
at any rate, i don’t want to pry into your situation. if you would like to explain further i am all ears; if not, fine.
i really appreciate your comments here. and your reports from your workplace have helped me navigate my treatments at that hospital.
I’m betting your body has gotten used to the pillows but if it hasn’t, it might be worth investing in a self-inflating air mattress like a thermarest. You don’t need to spend the big bucks on an ultralite unless you want to take it on the trail. The less expensive, full size, thicker ones are actually pretty comfy, firmness adjustable (if you want it firmer, just manually blow some air into it) and are very portable.
I bought some Mountain House freeze-dried meals with a use by date of 2054, so there is hope.
I’m using my super-duper curse of rooting for Harris to ensure her defeat.
It has been foolproof since 1966.
Not so coincidentally, 1966 was my birth year.
Sorry, I am going to get deep.
I have about 50 young men in my Sunday School Class. 18-30 years old. I add a lot of Greek and Roman history into the mix. You simply cannot understand Christ and Jewish Apocalyptic teaching unless you understand the history of what was going on. Jesus ministry was at a time of severe income equality, constant war and upheaval, and the threat of annihilation for his people at any time. He kept saying over and over – this will change – the end of the age is coming – you must change your entire soul, way of looking at things to face what is coming………METANOIA. Somehow, American Christians have truly lost the thread on even understanding the basics of his life and teaching.
And most of his verbal teaching in the Gospels is how does one live to survive what is coming and make it out on the other side. I have to constantly remind myself of these things as well. We live in a similar situation although certainly not the same and with much different issues. But our society and culture seem to be imploding around us, people cannot afford food, deprivation and homelessness are everywhere, elites are playing with peoples’ lives without mercy, we are involved in genocide and wars that are just evil, there is extreme income inequality – and just like then – no one in charge seems to care. It just gets worse no matter who wins or no matter what is done.
And I look at these young men – and I tell them the first thing and the last thing that Jesus instructed to be done to begin the process of metanoia – the change in your soul. Jesus hearkened back to this initial frame of reference repeatedly. DO NOT BE AFRAID. LET NOT YOUR HEARTS BE TROUBLED, FEAR NOT, I AM WITH YOU EVEN UNTO THE END OF TIME……over and over and over.
In our previous crises – we have had leaders who seemed to instinctively know this – THE ONLY THING WE HAVE TO FEAR IS FEAR ITSELF. But we have no such luck today. The fear and panic and subsequent hate and malice are everywhere. The vibes I am feeling online and with my patients right now are just weird. Weird things are happening in the zeitgeist.
FEAR NOT. This is what I feel I have to model to these young men and my patients and my family. Things were much easier when I was 18 and there were all kinds of elders. Those days are over. I am the one and I think many of us commenters are now the ones being looked up to. I know we are in for it as a country. There is no escape now no matter who wins. DO NOT BE AFRAID. That is the first rule.
Thanks for this. Philippians 4:6-7 came to mind.
Also, something I picked up from Karl Denninger’s blog – YOU CANNOT VOTE YOUR WAY OUT OF THIS.
IM Doc, Thank you.
Solitary thinking and isolation were challenged by the new approach. As then, and certainly today, there is safety and comfort in numbers, starting with whenever two or three are gathered…!
Thanks. I needed this.
Best…H
Thing is a lot of people like to be afraid. New management took charge of the library video dept and made a special section of horror films with the tagline “Do you like horror films?” (my answer: no!–although some are well done). Fear adds melodrama to cut through the ennui and many increasingly sheltered youth may have never experienced true peril. This is why the preferred age for cannon fodder is 18.
I agree that there’s a lot of wisdom in Christianity regardless of whether one is religious. For all the miracles and visions it’s an appeal to reason, that fruit of experience. Fear is the opposite but Roosevelt had been seasoned by experience and had its number. Life is dangerous but we were put here to live and as far as possible to live and let live. It isn’t easy being so saintly which is why Christianity also talked about forgiveness.
Both political parties use fear and arguably the Dems got their divisive strain via the Gingrich playbook. But it isn’t mentally healthy and some of us just want this election to be over and done with.
True metanoia is a rare thing.
It’s tricky to know what Jesus said, since none of his words were written down until about 40 years after his death. Ever play the Telephone Game? Line up a dozen people, give the first one a sentence on a slip of paper. He reads it, then whispers what he remembers to the next person in line, so forth down the line. Then the last person says what was whispered to him. After 1 minute and 12 people, what is said is far different from what is on the slip of paper.
So with Jesus, imagine 40 years instead of a minute, and thousands of people instead of 12. I’d always imagined that if Jesus read his quotes in the New Testament he’d say, “Where did they come up with that?”
Plus the people who finally wrote things down had motives – wanting to have the power and influence of starting a new “religion”.
But I had approached Christianity from an interesting point. I was raised Lutheran but was the kid in confirmation class who drove my pastor crazy, asking him Socratic-like questions on everything he said. “What does that mean, that Christ died for our sins?” Then my reply to his explanation – “What does THAT mean?” Every time we’d
just end up with him saying, “This is just what we believe.” Not a very convincing argument….
I was required by my mother to make it through confirmation, then from there I could do whatever I wanted on Sunday mornings. My true religion was playing baseball, so that was that.
But I ended up as a Philosophy and Religion major in college. Comparative religion quickly had me noticing that the few folks who were the inspirations of the world’s religions had a very common core to what they taught. “Religions” vary wildly (and set off wars), but that common core is what I learned to take seriously. As Frithjof Schuon termed it, in every religion there is and “exoteric” side (the rites, the particular sacred writings, the dogmas…) and an “esoteric” side (the true inner spiritual teaching), and the exoteric sides are at odds with each other, but the esoteric sides are all quite similar – basically, “metanoia” – Enlightenment, Self-Realization, Moksha, Union with God….
My sense has always been that Jesus was an authentic case of metanoia, but few who followed him had the same Transcendent “change”, and for 2,000 years most all of them don’t really understand what he was trying to convey – but it’s hard; as Lao-Tzu said, “Those
who speak don’t know; those who know don’t speak.”
I always liked Jung’s line – “In the history of the world there had only been one True Christian – and he got nailed to a cross.”
But yes, seek that metanoia. Eyes on the Prize….
“the nail that sticks up gets hammered down”
Doc, I wonder of you’ve taken a look at Michael Hudson’s The Collapse of Antiquity in which some time is spent on the “tyrants” of Sparta around the time of the death of Alexander. One of them, Cleomenes, attempted debt cancelation and exiled many oligarchs (Hudson compares these acts to the proclamation of the Jubilee year and the expulsion of bankers from the temple) and was crucified, though after having committed suicide with his followers.
IM Doc:
A necessary and brilliantly lucid description and understanding.
I envy your faith Doc, and even though I don’t share it, it does help me feel less afraid knowing that people like you are still keeping Jesus’s flame burning. I admire the historical person of Jesus Christ tremendously, and much of the deep moral thought that his teachings (apocryphal or no) have inspired over the last couple millenia. Sometimes even wonder if I might meet his shade in wherever I go next (although truthfully I hope I’m reincarnated as a tree or colony of fungi or a sequence of short lived octopuses – meeting Jesus would be cool though).
And let us hope that Marv Levy is there to see it!
Amen … Marv is a great guy. A M.A. in history from Harvard. Started his coaching career at Coe College. Who else would read Winston Churchill speeches to the men in the locker room?
In case someone didn’t get the reference to my Bills rooting curse, and the connection to my existence on this planet:
https://www.buffalobills.com/photos/today-in-64-and-65-afl-champions-crowned-12264933#f647d3bc-9593-4fbe-86ad-a63d55fa2f6d
aye, Chris…ive avoiding it all entirely, just like yesterday.
glanced at X, but NC is the only place i’ll even look, today.
cousin came up night before last, so its been beer central around here.
we butchered 2 geese, 3 muscovies, and 2 roosters this morning. 55# of birdmeat in bar fridge.
right now, he’s napping after a lil homegrown, and i’m out here listining to a Mahalia Jackson album and cooking about 30# of dutch oven lasagne, with homegrown veg and lamb italian sausage. i’m at the ashes and coals on top phase.
we’ll endeavor to vac seal all of this tomorrow.
geese are quite cross with me at the moment, but the ducks seem to have let it slide. chickens have no idea whats happened because theyve been in jail all day…and the 2 roosters were sequestered in fattening cages for the last month, chowing down on bacon grease infused scratch grains, and having nothing to do but get fat.
Newspaper Rock: Big Cattle needs no/lo cost grazing on BLM lands to be financially viable. They slime, spin, discredit, minimize, dismiss, discredit, yada yada any indication that Equus Caballus was here pre-Europeans/cattle arrival. Judge for yourself. https://www.dreamstime.com/shot-ancient-american-indian-drawings-newspaper-rock-utah-shot-ancient-american-indian-drawings-newspaper-rock-image153595959
Bill Simpson goes into some detail. https://www.wildhorsefirebrigade.org/about
He cites mentions of free roaming horses in early Pacific NW maritime exploration journals. The animals couldn’t have made it up there from Hernan Cortez’s cavalry descendants in Mexico.
The horse originated and evolved in North America just like humans with Africa. I always found it strange that it became extinct in the Americas, but survived elsewhere.
so my fav. regional gas station raised its pay-at-the-pump credit card hold to $200.
Dunno when it happened, but if anyone tomorrow asks “how can people vote for Trump?” …something like a $200 2-day hold may be inconsequential to you…but it’s a potential mini neutron bomb to some people.
And the only outlet they have to vent their frustration is voting for the opposite of whoever is in power
How does that work? You can’t charge more than $200?
Why are they waiting until after the election to do this?: .50 cents a gallon increase for next three years? Are they nuts?
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-10-10/california-air-regulators-consider-hiking-gasoline-prices
Between teary eyed old ladies working three jobs, like our Amazon delivery trying to make it, the condemnation of economy from right and the left, don’t see any future for working people, unless they can walk to work.
https://www.struggle-la-lucha.org/2024/03/09/part-time-jobs-no-benefits-the-real-state-of-the-working-class/
Gustav Klimt: Can’t see the forrest for the trees. That’s how I feel right now.
I love Klimt’s forests. An antidote in the Water Cooler.
This is what I turn to in difficult times:
CLOUDLESS SNOWFALL
Great big flakes like white ashes
at nightfall descending
abruptly everywhere
and vanishing
in this hand like the host
on somebody’s put-out tongue, she
turns the crucifix over
to me, still warm
from her touch two years later
and thank you,
I say all alone _
Vast whisp-whisp of wingbeats
awakens me and I look up
at a minute-long string of black geese
following low past the moon the white
course of the snow-covered river and
by the way thank You for
keeping Your face hidden, I
can hardly bear the beauty of this world.
Franz Wright
The Klimt is interesting. Most of it is very detailed but he’s drawn the larger trees in a very flat, almost two-dimensional way (which seems likely to have been on purpose). The background and forest floor are very detailed and convincingly three dimensional, so the overall effect is almost like a pop-up book. At first glance it looks like a simple wooded scene, but that lingering tension between two and three dimensions gives the painting its overall feeling.
Yeh, the larger trees look as though they’ve been “collaged” on.
my initial reaction upon it scrolling into view was that it was a photograph.
ive always liked Klimt.
Moo Deng for president!
even Moo Deng is not immune from being swept up in US politics…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-14040281/viral-hippo-moo-deng-election-winner-prediction.html
Thanks, Lambert, for your time tonight. I won’t be here, so I hope you have new yellow waders for the BS tonight.
I would like to start a game of what time the trumpster will declare victory. I’m going with 5 minutes after the last state closes their polls.
Good luck all and stay safe.
> I would like to start a game of what time the trumpster will declare victory.
What an exciting prospect.
Milwaukee and Racine counties just said there was a tabulator error (settings not locked) and they’ll have to redo all their absentee ballot counts, no results before 3am. Georgia’s usual counties also delaying their results for similar bafflegab reasons.
I suspect this will be repeated by as many states as possible to avoid the election being called tonight.
This really is the worst Democrat party of my life.
Oh. / sheesh. (why am I thinking of Chicago elections, 1925-1930? heh / ;)
I don’t know if Mr. Udvar-Hazy (or Lambert by way of editorial choice) was hinting without explicitly saying, but this reads like an intro quote in a future history book on how COMAC finally swept the commercial aviation market after decades of flailing.
Or who knows? At this rate, while it sounds fanciful and last I heard, COMAC is backing off of cooperation with Russian aviation, maybe we’ll see a BRICS Franken-plane with help from Embraer.
https://time.com/7160814/long-covid-kid-personal-essay/
What It’s Like to Have Long COVID As a Kid
I think I’ll go for another walk.
I’m so old I remember when they told us that children didn’t even get Covid. (True, the initial studies were not good, but there was no reason to think they would not, and in any case this lie was repeated long after the studies started coming in.)
I’m old enough to remember them saying that kids getting Covid was good for them as it would build up their immunity. The doctors were the worse for this-
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/pro-infection-doctors-didnt-just-want-kids-in-school-they-wanted-them-there-unvaccinated-untested-and-unmasked-they-wanted-them-infected/
I keep seeing this guy who has correctly predicted 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections presented as some oracle. Keeps showing up in my news feed. Sorry, I am not impressed. That takes you back to 1984 Reagan/Mondale. I believe the average person could have pretty easily predicted 8 out of those 10, so if you get lucky on 2000 Bush/Gore that gets you to 9 out of 10. I am assuming he missed 2016. Which, if he saw that one coming and said so, then I’ll grant him some oracle status. That would mean his only miss was (I assume) 2000, which is forgivable.
Nope, I watched the video, and he did predict Trump in 2016. I would say this is probably why we even hear about him. His “miss” was Bush/Gore, but he doesn’t even consider it as a miss because Gore really won, “but we’re not here to talk about that”. In his mind, he’s 10 for 10… so better than the polls, but that’s not saying a lot… as they say at the end of the finserv commercials “past performance is no guarantee of future returns”. We shall see.
He’s a smart guy with a decent model, but all models are wrong; they are a simplification of the extremely complex reality.
I am a professional forecaster, and don’t believe that anyone can legitimately have precision in forecasting the election. People may express confidence but they cannot have statistical confidence.
the entrails of birds we examined this morning said trump all the way.
He has a good model based on correlating election results with other criteria. That doesn’t make it foolproof or infallible. I wouldn’t take it any further than that.
The law of averages says that his guy won’t correctly predict 10 out of the last 11 presidential elections. Of course, he still might. :)
This link to the live blog will go live at 7:00pm (and not before).
Scott Ritter just posted a thought about the election. For what it’s worth to people who live in states where the Green and Libertarian candidates have been kept off the ballot. Sorry, I am unable to embed the link.
https://scottritter.substack.com/p/an-election-in-two-memes?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo4NDUwOTQ3NywicG9zdF9pZCI6MTUxMjMwODUxLCJpYXQiOjE3MzA4Mzk3NjMsImV4cCI6MTczMzQzMTc2MywiaXNzIjoicHViLTY4OTIiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.IQFVb94XGuMstyLTZOUoWTS-XP4dn5RHp3P9coIl0CA
well well John Mearsheimer voted neither for Trump nor Harris.
HE IS A COMMIE!!!
I KNEW IT!
heh.
I’ve suspected for at least a month that the Biden admin had an agreement with Boeing “leadership” to end the strike unilaterally after the election regardless of victor, and I think, under those circumstances, the union could have done worse.
Well this is the first Presidential election of my life that I haven’t voted in. I got very sick last Friday. My one Covid test came back negative, but even if it is right I am contagious and this knocked me for a loop. No one should get it.
I was going to try to make it to the polls, but I would start coughing or have to sit down. I ran the numbers, so to speak, and it just wasn’t worth it. Not for my health. Not for the health of the other voters and especially the poll workers. And mostly because it would do nothing. My writing in Jill Stein wouldn’t even help the Greens. The down ticket races are either unopposed or equally despicable choices, that I would have to leave blank. The referendums are badly written and rife for abuse even if based on good ideas. All the judge candidates are Democrats, and frankly the last few years in NY means I would need loads of evidence that they failed the party’s approval process for them to get my vote. Lawfare is unacceptable to me but apparently now a requirement for much of the party.
I never thought I would say any of those things. Or that I would make this kind of decision. Yes I fear for my country, but not because of the mania that our leaders and media have so carefully stoked, both inside and out. I fear that those same owners and leaders may unleash things that will change the world in ways we have never seen before, with large spatterings of new versions the worst of history. All because they mistakenly think they are immune to it all.
But even with that, I still think maybe next time…
Best wishes for your speedy recovery. And respect for your consideration of others while you are under the weather, as we say.
If you used the rapid antigen tests provided by Uncle Sam a negative on the first test may be false. The CDC advises using all four tests to confirm a negative result.
I wish a tenth of the people I am in contact were as considerate as you.
I hope you get better quickly.
Hey, you take care of yourself, OK? Time to veg out and maybe catch up on some light reading – and don’t let the elections stress you out.
Pat, please be well.
Pat, you DID vote. You voted for not killing anybody. Which is more than can be said for those who voted for Harris or Trump.
Kudos.
No predictions here. Could go either way and margin could be yuge or tiny. If it was Trump against Biden, then I would’ve predicted a Trump landslide. So the Democrats did the minimum to avert that outcome. Turnout will likely make the difference, both getting the base out (keeping them from being complacent) and pulling in the low propensity/seldom voters (that hate your candidate slightly less than they hate the other one). Not expecting anything good to result no matter who gets called as the winner. Just slightly different versions of bad.
Taibbi is live-blogging (not sure if paywalled?)
Peace and love to all in this strange time.
It’s so great to see the Onion back on form. They went from A+ tier in the 00s to just god-awful, like season 29 Simpsons awful, as recently as 3 or 4 years back. Their vids had gotten dumb and cheap. This video was like early Onion, a bright spark.