By Thomas Neuburger. Originally published at God’s Spies.
Analyses of the recent historic Democratic loss are thick on the ground. Some provide data or forensic analysis and some prescribe, giving recipes for what to do differently.
Before I delve into forensics of my own, I’d like to offer material from other quarters for your consideration. Consider this a mosaic of what’s being said. What do you think this adds up to?
I’ll offer my own take soon, this week or next.
What the Party Expected Long Term
To understand what happened this week, I think we need to start here. This chart is from a 2020 Center for American Progress (CAP) report titled “America’s Electoral Future: The Coming Generational Transformation”. It claims to show the “full generation effect” on voting for the next few cycles in selected states. Note the slow but inevitable march to the sea — in this case, the warm embrace of the Party in blue.
Note the highlighted projection for 2024. (2020 is shown as a projection because the study was published before that year’s election. Of the states CAP projected to turn blue in 2020, all but Florida did.)
The youth vote was supposed to be a very large part of this move, but as the population shifted, almost all segments were supposed to turn blue eventually.
What Actually Happened: Voter Segments
The actual results were drastically different this time. Let’s start with voter segments.
Youth Realignment
With the CAP report in mind, consider this from The Circle at Tufts University, which studies the youth vote:
According to CIRCLE analyses of the AP VoteCast Survey, nationally 52% of youth voted for Vice President Harris and 46% of youth voted for President Trump. …[I]n 2020 [Trump] received 36% of votes from 18- to 29-year-old voters.
Democratic youth vote collapsed by nearly 20% of its 2020 amount. Here’s what that looks like by gender, 2024 vs 2020:
Go back to the CAP projection above. Of the states projected to turn blue in 2024 — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina — none did. Arizona, which has yet been called, is leaning toward Trump.
Income Realignment
Exit polls show income realignment. In 2020, all income groups except the reasonable well off (those making more than $100,000 per year) favored Democrats by a lot.
All of that changed in 2024. Both low and middle income groups now support Republicans, while the well off now support Dems. The margins are smaller, but the switch is unmistakable.
In the main, Democrats most represent the well off.
Race and Ethnicity Shifts
Many have already noted the change in support among racial and ethnicity groups. CNN has done a lot of analysis using the exit polls:
Latino voters, and men in particular, have been moving toward Trump since 2016. This year, Latino men broke in his direction for the first time. Biden won their support by 23 points in 2020 and Trump won them in 2024. Latina women still favored Harris, but by smaller margins than they supported either Clinton or Biden.
Educational Gap Support
From CNN again. Trump’s support among whites with no degree remains strong. Harris lost support among voters of color both with and without degrees.
Harris’s drop from Clinton in 2016 is especially stark.
Economy Voters Broke for Trump
Views on the economy and personal experience of hardship motivated many voters toward Trump. If the economy was your issue, you probably voted for Trump.
The number of people who thought they were doing worse more than doubled since 2020.
In 2020, just about one-fifth of voters said they were doing worse than four years before. This year, it’s nearly half of voters who say they are doing worse than four years ago. Trump won them overwhelmingly.
One could argue that the first chart is subjective (“views” are always subjective), but the second (“family has fallen behind”) is likely fact-based.
‘Democracy at Stake’
Finally, the “democracy at stake” message worked only with Democrats.
What Actually Happened: The Electorate Everall
Some data from the electorate overall: mixed messages.
Near Universal ‘Red Shift’
Here’s the red shift by county (all voters) as of this writing:
National Popular Vote
Yet with all this shifting toward Trump, the overall national popular vote went down while Trump’s share went up:
Wooing the Republican Party
The Democrats closing strategy seemed to be to grab Republican voters who may not have liked Trump. Here’s how that worked out (hat tip Dave Johnson by email).
‘Double Haters’ Broke for Trump
In fact, people who hated (“had an unfavorable view of”) both candidates mostly chose Trump over Harris.
I’m among those who didn’t think that would happen.
Analysis: Party Professionals
A number of people close to the Party core — consultants, media mavens and the like — have offered their thoughts.
One of the more notable (and typical) takes is by Morning Joe Scarborough, talking with Rev. Al Sharpton. Bottom line: Racism and sexism doomed the campaign.
“Blame the electorate” responses are everywhere. Here’s campaign and gun control activist Shannon Watts:
Feminist writer Jill Filipovic:
DNC chair Jaime Harrison, countering Bernie Sanders’ pro-populist advice:
In general, Party leaders and supporters say Harris ran a good campaign. It’s not her fault.
Analysis: Others Weigh In
Others have differing opinions. Economist Pavlina Tcherneva, in a good Twitter thread, notes how many progressive measures passed in Trump-won states.
Ian Welsh took a look at abortion reform — ballot measures that supported it and how Harris did in those states:
David Sirota thinks Harris’s embrace of the rich had a major damping effect:
And consider this, from the late David Graeber on the sin of “radical centrism”. He claims Obama, and by extension most of the Party, is guilty (hat tip Double Down News).
Food for thought, yes? Probably more than a meal’s worth.
Music
Why not? Some may remember this one on the problem of choosing.
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Re. Voters with an unfavorable view of both candidates
I thought/hoped more would vote for Stein. I thought/hoped that in a nominally Christian country, more people would vote for the only candidate that espoused that, as a matter of policy, one should love one’s neighbor, even if she was a woman and a Jew. I thought she might even get 5%, and was hoping against hope for 10.
She got what? 1.1%.
Yeah…in fact all of the independent and third party candidates (other than RFK Jr who was still on the ballot in some places) expressed broadly anti-war and anti-genocide views and together they managed ~1.5%…
I guess we Americans really don’t care too much about how many people are slaughtered by our policies. Or we think they deserve it.
Maybe Americans know that when it comes to foreign policy it really doesn’t matter what they think or what they care about. They would not be wrong. Also, there are benefits, albeit unevenly distributed, to being citizens of a global hegemon: Unequal exchange of labour in the world economy Nature Communications. A link to this paper was previously posted here at NC but has yet to my knowledge generated much discussion specific to it.
If it doesn’t matter what Americans think of foreign policy, then it doesn’t matter what they think of anything else either. They should defer to the political elite on all questions, or whoever it is you deem worthy of having an opinion. That’s obviously a self-defeatist and empirically incorrect view.
The paper probably isn’t discussed much because it’s conclusions are completely uninteresting. Anyone viewing the moral depravity of American foreign policy juxtaposed with America’s enormous wealth can understand that if fate granted you the chance to be a citizen of the empire rather than one of its victims, you got lucky.
That is the essence of every exceptionalist ideology. USians are so triggered by what Israelis do in Gaza, because they see themselves. It was much easier to live in denial when all those children were dying off-camera, with an occasional photo slipping trough the cracks for Pulitzer Prize nominations. Those good ol’ times.
I would be interested to see some of Stein’s numbers compared in states where she was on the ballot vs not. Here in NY, she was not on the ballot. I expected she would perform better than she did, but not being on the ballot was a killer.
Btw, thanks for this very detailed post on the election data.
We wrote in Stein; i have not seen vote totals for NYS.
We attempted to find where to sign GPNY ballot qualification petitions for Stein in the Syracuse area and were unsuccessful. Neither Stein’s or GPNY provided such information (eg, “go here” or “call this number”). Blank petitions were online but did not make clear if the witness could also sign (probably not?) They were not serious, IMO.
Maybe 12 years ago the Green candidate for the House got 8% of the vote (in the competitive NY22 area). IIRC in 2018 the Green candidate for governor got over 200K votes. Obviously there is support.
Andrew Cuomo and the Democrats made sure to basically outlaw third parties with onerous access requirements as part of COVID legislation.
None of my family of D tribal members would even follow the link to Jill Stein’s platform. Much like the D’s leaving the convention with their fingers in their ears passing the protesters. Tribal membership is a strong force, like Cults I think.
there is a strong “I voted for the winner” desire among Normie voters, irrespective of politics or policy.
Probably a self-feedback loop of the 2-party system and American love of team sports/a winning identity
then it doesn’t help that many people would rather be losing with Dems. than sweating to build a Green Party infrastructure.
Failure has many parents.
It could be that many people did in fact feel that this was an important election and instead of passively opposing the DP by voting their conscience for Jill Stein, voted purposely against the DP (for Trump) to make sure that they lost.
First, we may be mainly Christian, as you say, in nominal terms but our collective religion is consurmerism/hedonism. Generally speaking, most people in the US don’t really care about people they don’t personally know and aren’t gong to be sympathetic to the Greem Party specifically, and social democracy in general (yes, I know people would prefer single payer insurance system etc., but it is a notion that is only skin deep). But more importantly people are, at this point in our history, looking for authority that they can align with and that swayed the majority to vote for Trump despite the universal condemnation of the mainstream media, despite invented “crimes” lawfare and so on. This was an election about trust–most people have lost their trust in the authorities and those that voted for Kamala voted their fears egged on by a media that lives entirely in a world they have invented that bears little resemblance to any definition of reality we can come up with.
She got 1.1% in Maine and we use ranked choice voting for president – https://www.pressherald.com/2024/11/05/maine-statewide-and-town-by-town-votes-for-the-2024-u-s-presidential-race/
We’ve had RCV for a few elections now and I’m extremely disappointed that with so many people frustrated with the two major party choices on offer in most elections, very few people take advantage of this system to express their displeasure.
Reminds me of the old DEVO song –
Freedom of choice
Is what you got
Freedom from choice
Is what you want
i mean, when i sat in the ballot box i thought about voting for trump for a minute, purely to piss off all the annoying democrats in my life. both suck, but democrats tend to be less welcoming. they want you to share their fear while republicans more want you to share their joy.
but of course, i ended up voting for stein, because she’s the only one with policies i support.
It’s funny how our experiences shape us. I wrote in Stein too, but my personal experience is sort of the opposite of yours.
Yes, “vote blue no matter who” types can be very anxious and fragile, but I’ve found at most, even if they bark & growl at first, they really just want to be comforted.
After growing up in East Texas & spending most of my life in red states though, welcoming and joyful is definitely not how I would describe most republicans.
I imagine we’ll eventually get a number for ballots where the President spot was left blank. That’s what I did.
Blank voter here. Had similar thoughts to Matt above, but only seriously considered Stein. Ultimately left the president portion of the ballot blank for the first time. Felt even a Stein vote adds legitimacy to the farce and I don’t want to participate anymore.
Well, I voted for Stein, who was on the ballot here in Ohio, but our Secretary of State Frank LaRose after ballots had been printed that votes for her would not be counted because reasons and when the Greens took it to court, the judge upheld LaRose. I voted for her knowing my vote wouldn’t count, but also knowing that because of gerrymandering, no Ohioans’ votes for president actually count anyway. Great democracy we got here, eh?
We had an issue on the Ohio ballot to outlaw gerrymandering (Issue 1) but that same patriot, LaRose, wrote ballot language stating that it would do the opposite of the what the issue actually did. When Issue 1 supporters took LaRose’s lying language to the Ohio Supreme Court they upheld it, natch, with the 4 Republicans supporting LaRose and the 3 Democrats voting against him.
Besides Issue 1, the thing I cared most about in this election was electing 3 Democrats to join the 1 who didn’t have to run this year and gain a majority on the state Supreme Court. They all lost and the court is now 6 Republicans and 1 Democrat, who will undoubtedly lose her seat when next she runs. The Democrats who lost (two incumbents and one newbie) were all excellent candidates and it’s a terrible loss for all Ohioans.
Sad to say, my home state is a cesspool.
Agreed, and not just for Stein, but any of the 3rd party candidates. I was even selected to participate in a university opinion poll this election cycle, and I specifically mentioned that.
There is actually a kernel of truth to the cope among the DNC types, that this election does not send a good message about America. It’s not because Harris lost to Trump though, it’s that people gave Trump an even clearer mandate this time, and the other branches to the Republicans too. A significant 3rd-party vote would have at least denied them a clear mandate, and we could still say we’re mostly unwilling hostages to our political system.
Most of the planet doesn’t have the same amnesia that America does, and I highly doubt they’ve forgotten what Republican government means. Whatever they may say now diplomatically, mark my words: much of the planet now considers America terminally mean and stupid, only capable of understanding force or economic pain, and they will be taking measures accordingly.
In a similar vein, Trump’s election doesn’t mean what most think it does, both those who support or fear his policies. America is not in the driver seat anymore. So yes, pity all the people caught in the crossfire for now. But if you want to worry about anyone when Trump starts or escalates another conflict (and yes, he started many last time), worry for yourself and your own when the war comes here.
The ‘war’ that is coming to the US (and the EU) is one of reduced prosperity (and all the difficulties that brings). The cultures that will thrive are those that have a strong sense of community.
The growth of the BRIC’s, over time, has real consequence for America. The US debt driven economy will end with the loss of cheap goods from abroad. Inflation will strand many on the US island.
I don’t think there’s any amnesia among US voters. Instead I think both 2024 and 2016 show what the electorate, especially the non- D/R that decide elections, really thinks of the Dems. Everyone knows that Trump is bad, which means that Dems are considered worse. In a battle to determine the lesser of two evils, Trump is considered less evil.
For sure, and if lots of Americans believe the Republicans are the lesser evil, I don’t think they’re necessarily wrong (my own experiences just bias me differently).
The real issue is assuming that how we in America rationalize this election matters anymore. I don’t think it does. What matters is: how do the Eurasian powers interpret it? How does foreign industry and capital interpret it? How does the rest of the G7 interpret it? How do billions of people in other countries, whose trade (and in some cases exploitation) keep the plates spinning, interpret it?
I could be wrong, and I’m one of those “Trump is Trump, and a symptom, not the devil” people so while I’m not optimistic, I’m not pulling my hair out either. Like I said, I think the real problem is too few people split their ballots, voted 3rd party, or just stayed home (denying either party a mandate).
When you try to put yourself in the shoes of people outside America though, and how they may react, I don’t have a good feeling at all about where this election is going to send us.
I think “greater evil” vs “lesser evil” isn’t really the right simplification. IMHO this election came down to two major themes:
– voters generally favored most progressive social policies
– voters trust that Trump specifically (and maybe Rs overall?) are more likely to improve their economic situation.
A lot of people have seen their financial situation worsen significantly recently, and Harris didn’t seem to have any policies to address it. Indeed Democrat campaigns mostly didn’t seem to recognize it as an issue at all. And when you don’t have the money for rent or bills it’s hard to prioritize voting on other issues. And while I personally fully expect Trump to loot the working class harder, I think that’s a minority view among the electorate.
Harris doesn’t have policy, and neither does Trump (unless one counts imposing tarrifs on everyting a workable policy). What he does have is more experience in reality shows. He knows how to work the crowd. He is a natual talent. His team just have to put apron/vest/whatever on him and let him improvise.
I don’t think a lot of people really know who Stein is unless you are actively politically engaged. She’s also not relatable to a lot of people.
Mr. Neuberger, thank you for the the summary! The income splits seem like the most straightforward way view the results, in my opinion.
HHLD income $100k or more: I have assets, and I want their value to be maintained. The status quo has been good for me, inflation was annoying but didn’t really affect my purchasing power. I say let’s not rock the boat.
HHLD income less than $100k (informed by Matt Stoller’s tweets over the last week or so): the spike in inflation really sucked in 2021 and 2022. But in 2021, I had assistance (if I qualified), and interest rates on car loans were low. I also had a shot at a low mortgage rate (at least in 2021). In 2022 onward, my income couldn’t keep up with inflation, rates on my loans went up, and I was priced out of a potential mortgage (i.e., I’m stuck where I’m at). I feel poorer, throw the bums out!
Agreed. The change in support based on income seems to be the most pronounced. That chart is really quite striking. Democrats used to be the party of the middle class and working poor, but that’s clearly no longer true.
Toss in the losses with minorities, and it becomes quite obvious why the Democrats lost this election.
The Democrats were very clearly not even using the “I feel your pain” messaging but called people idiots who didn’t understand official definitions.
Worse, they are assuming that voters *did* understand their message, but they are just too racist, sexist, etc to recognize that they are supposed to follow this message as they are told
As twitted above, the problem is not the candidate, the problem is America.
Yes. And the problem goes back to the Pilgrim Fathers, a bunch of rigid, bigoted, authoritarian, religious maniacs. Then there are all the other contributors – the Venetian bankers, the Victorian capitalists and engineers, the Byzantine and Medieval theologians, the proponents of the ‘Religions of the Book’. I hesitate to include the Bronze Age metallurgists, or the advent 4 million or so years ago of Homo sapiens, as most of the rest of the world – apart from Europe, where most of these things noted above either originated or were fostered – seems to be (though only relatively) more peaceful. Really, there’s a book in it, – multiple books, and they have probably already been written. But I don’t think I could stand to read any more of them. So depressing.
I notice the term “class” being more often mentioned by pundits opining on the election results. One example, David Brooks on PBS News Hour, whom I’d describe as center right:
However, it should be noted that Brooks’ putative “opposite” number and others interviewed during the full show doubled down on racism and sexism being key electoral motivators.
I think that, as a longtime Republican, it’s easier for Brooks to see that sea of red and not just short out immediately. It’s a hard thing for a lib to unlearn.
Brooks could re-read his book Bobo’s in Paradise. He saw this class division a long time ago, imo. / ;)
The Dem estab is now run by Bobos, imo.
I’ve yet to see a better theory of American voting patterns than Ian Welsh’s, ie, we vote against whoever screwed us last, which leads to this seesawing because we’re screwed by everybody.
I think the Dems deserve all the credit in the world for managing to oversee two economic recoveries in such a way that almost no one felt better off afterward. Remarkable.
The search for change that came with the Democrat sweep of the House in 2006, when Pelosi reneged on defunding the Iraq War, continues apace.
A puzzler in all of this is how no reports of poll results refer to militarization and increased conflict in international relations, something that had been building in the Obama and Trump years, but took off after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Afaict, there’s no “war fever” at a mass level, but elites are certainly working away at creating it. Could war worries manifest in derivative ways, e.g. enhance a sense of insecurity which then gives economic worries a boost? Or, more classically, I suppose, could they nudge people to support “strong man” instead of a pusillanimous woman?
As usual, this could be a question of survey construction. If you take a look at the nominally comprehensive Pew voter survey, there appear to be no questions explicitly aimed at war worries. All I see is an egregiously broad reference to “will X make good decisions about foreign policy?” Regarding my question, the survey is essentially suppressive, voter anxieties about specific aspects of foreign policy are not given room in the pseudoconversation of the survey to gel and find expression. It’s great that economic concerns are able to break out of the joy box that the Dems tried to hide them in, but I don’t think that’s all that’s hidden.
With the NYT and prestige media sanitizing the Gaza-Lebanon War (as it looks bad in Israel), there is no hope for Normies to get fair coverage of the war. (sanitizing as in avoiding talk of US weapons shipments, sownplaying civilian deaths)
The throw in “a plague on both their houses” attitude about the Mideast. Regular, non-political people want no part of the sandbox anymore…..they’d rather worry about making ends meet
I’d also like to fold in the how elites are more broadly conveying the sense — increasingly accurate given their behavior — that we are now living in “dangerous times” that require special knowledges and talents that are beyond the understanding of the hoipolloi.
Writers like Harold Lasswell used to talk about this in terms of a deliberate infantalization of the mass public, in the full blown sense of making them feel like children whose life is being maintained by parents — stereotypically a man — going out into a threatening world that they cannot begin to understand. This certainly goes on within the medium of economic policy — the simple model of the economy of the household doesn’t get you very far with Fed policy. What’s different about foreign policy is that there’s a sense of danger, buttressed by a sense that if you try to raise questions you can quickly get ostracized, e.g. the astounding slide into “Putin lover” levels of argument, which wasn’t an argument at all, but a threat. All of this tends to make thinking about foreign policy more difficult and so “opinion” tends to stay undeveloped.
It may not be explicit, but the msm is “Biden, foreign, war,” and the local reality is “car insurance, school funding, cuts in support.”
It comes down to Eisenhower’s farewell address. Polls even weighted polls want an end to support for Israel. Every dead Palestinian is one less teacher in the US. People know this, and they saw Biden abandoning them.
In the campaign imagery, Team Blue had Walz cosplay as a hunter (he was in artillery) while Trump played his character at McDonald’s. One message projects an image of here you go rubes and the other says hey I like McDonald’s (except for snobs, br honest who doesn’t like McDonald’s).
In light of Biden abandoning domestic politics and Harris embracing loathsome and unpopular individuals, it really was an antiwar vote. The gun stunt failed. McDonald’s won. Many Americans have worked at McDonald’s.
My self-made bumper sticker–actually printed out and taped to the rear window–says:
$100 BILLION$ FOR UKRAINE AND ISRAEL
$750 (maybe) FOR AMERICANS IN NC AND FL
Did I contribute to Trump’s win? Dunno. (Didn’t vote for him or Harris).
If it led just a few to think about the war party, I would consider it a victory of sorts.
Trump actually does like eating McDonald’s so thats why he was so into the scene.
It would be a good thing if the MSM attributes the loss by Kamala to foreign war. It might make the next Democratic President think twice about feeding weapons to monsters like Netanyahu and Zelensky like pellets to a goose. I don’t buy it, though.
I think the open genocide and images of the extermination of Palestinian women & children did affect the left, as in the real left, not the fake AOC garbage.
But I think too many Americans could care less if an entire people group gets slaughtered halfway round the world. Throw in “Project Ukraine” which has genocidal aspects as well. Let’s fight Putin to the last Ukrainian!
We don’t care and we’re worse than animals. That’s who ‘we’ are. See Caitlyn Johnstone for a much better articulation of what I am trying to say.
PS – she is on fire again
https://substack.com/home/post/p-151402607
chris, big thumbs up to your comments.
Billions for ukraine and israel is likely viewed as economy by many people and can also be lumpened in with globalisation and it’s attendant forced migration not helping most people.
Notably, the surveys don’t encompass the ~12 million people who stayed home.
“it’s the economy, stupid”…
but unshockingly and farcically, even James Carville was so consumed by TDS even he said Kamala was 100% certain to win, ignoring his own advice from 32! years ago
https://www.newsweek.com/james-carville-kamala-harris-election-1973599
In 1992, Carville and the 3rd Way DLC dems under Clinton thought they had cracked the code for winning elections by triangulating old New Deal dems, Wall St money, and playing interest groups off against each other. That’s my opinion. It worked for almost 30 years. That time is over.
The 3rd Way: the “non-ideological” ideologues.
Until the damage caused by Clinton is repaired, esp. Telecommunications and Banking Reform Acts (etc.), that time will not be over.
Hey let’s set over $ 1 billion dollars on fire, watch it burn and ignore voters real concerns and their legitimate questions about the US economy , inflation not solved yet or immigration and clearly open border policy, or warfare overseas…Wait is this a losing plan? \ sarc
Much thanks to Lambert for covering all the relevant angles! I can only have a low level of trust in the Republicans to attempt to govern well….it is a low bar to clear. As for Trump or others…the obscene wealthy and very rich seem to manage just fine no matter what the situation. Maybe pay some ( more ) passing attention to the non titans , small business persons and the rest of mostly working folks. White collar or blue collar…no difference.
They didn’t “set over $1 billion dollars on fire.” They gave that money to ad agencies, contractors, staff salaries, vanity projects, luxury travel expenses, etc. In other words, the money did not “trickle down.” This was an example of the current nature of our political system and process and that the political class is totally separated from the average voter. Also indicative is your reference to the US economy, inflation, immigration, border policy, and warfare. You made no mention to safety net issues (that I am very aware of as a senior citizen) such as retirement plans, insurance plans, health care, etc. Democratic professionals allowed Republican professionals to define the narrative. This was a values election. We have two parties, one that values superior elites and cruelty and the other that values superior elites.
He may have been referring to the weapons and aid sent to Israel and Ukraine, not CARES Act money. I’ll leave it to the OP to clear up.
A lot more than $1B has been sent to Israel and Ukraine.
I did put a tag for sarcasm…But yeah spending so much on our national office elections is good for…someone else & now its a flourishing industry to attract donors & support. As I cynically conclude from every cycle, the political whisperers of nothingness and the consultant class of pundits never actually fail. They’ll just land with the new, incoming administration or they’ll land instead at a think tank or high minded institute of this that or the other.
Safety net issues, good point. Eventually or just maybe retiring, and meeting the age necessary for Social Security is still out in the future, but it’s very much in mind.
> spending so much on our national office elections
I have seen the point made that the magnitude of the $$$ spent on elections to public office is not itself scandalous, considering the importance of the outcomes.
What is scandalous is that, in spite of the large sums spent on this process, we get such sh!tty governance at the end of the process.
It’s perhaps another illustration of the privatization of benefits and socialization of negative externalities.
What amazes me is the low level of intelligent analysis you get for all that money. Anyone with half a brain and a vestigial degree of morality would see that a policy of co-operation with Russia, China and the upcoming BRICS economies would lead to more opportunities for extracting wealth securely and sustainably for more of the elites for longer than this temporary splurge on armaments. But no, short-sighted greed sustained by an immoveable stupidity is the rule. How can such morons stay solvent?
Was it just a bilion that they burned? As VP, Harris flew around in Air Force 2. Presumably, a lot of other expenses would have been borne by the taxpayers and not included in the official campaign costs…
Honest question, which is the cruelty party?
Seeing that the management tier of the DNC double dip as consultants (based on what little post-mortem was published in 2017), they basically pocketed some of that billion. I want to see how much.
That’s also why I don’t think that any change at all will happen to the Democrat party. They won the money race by a huge margin, and money is all they seem to care about.
In retrospect the entire Harris campaign seems like a headfake and a major question is whether the pollsters were part of it. Are shy Trump voters really that shy?
We may have a lot of trouble with Trump but defeat for the epic liars of the Democratic party is sweet justice. Long ago LBJ went down because of his “credibility gap” but at least he had the good sense to quit while he was behind. The current Dems seem little more than a collection of mouthy grifters. As stated they are now the party of the leisure class with the public desperately seeking some relief–probably not forthcoming–from the Repubs. But one hopes the Trumpies will at least be a bit more in touch with reality.
The GOP won’t. They know the Biden 2020 numbers are what a semi-competent Team Blue campaign can produce. They line up with the 2008 numbers. Harris, Clinton, and Obama being the Great Foreclosure reduced those numbers.
Trumps raw total was buoyed by bumps in safe Blue districts, but his total was identical. Them we saw what looks like Trump only voters as potentially the margins in the swing states, hence Team Blue more or less holding serve given the Senate map cycle.
Pet projects will be the goal. Harris polled at 1% in the California primary despite two old white guys as opponents. She almost won. The GOP will push on the pet projects. Their slim majority will be demolished in two years.
You may be right about the “pet projects” and the prospects that those entail. As to the competency of the parties in terms of campaigning and outcomes, my interpretation of the data is that Harris lost about as badly as a Dem candidate possibly can in our current electoral architecture. The party’s integration into the various state election processes (such as ballot harvesting) guarantees significant % the local voters for a ham sandwich. I agree that the Dems are holding serve in the coming legislative election cycles, but it is not due to their competence at connecting with regular people.
Amen.
I’d like to think that Harris lost because:
1. Two new wars under Biden’s watch with one featuring genocide. Kind of hard to overlook that.
2. Inflation – yes, it finally came down in mid-2024 but by then it was too late. Voters memories are still fresh of the summer of 2022 when it seemed that all Hell had broken loose at the grocery store. I have vivid memories of walking into a Kroger in Virginia Beach and it was like a bomb had gone off, the store was a mess and I wasn’t sure I would be able to eat much that week.
3. Harris failed to separate herself from Genocide Joe. It might not have taken much. Maybe one speech calling for an immediate ceasefire and the cutoff of weapons under her administration as a stick. It would have triggered the entire right but so what, she was never getting their vote anyway. Joe would have been pissed but what could he do about it? Fire her?
I want to thank Lambert again for such great coverage. And a great commentariat, too.
PS – it is ironic that inflation may have done in Kamala. Arguably, she had the least to do with it vs. the trifecta of:
Biden, Powell, Trump
Let’s not forget the reckless and willful misconduct done by the Fed and Congress in March of 2020. The Fed in backstopping corporate junk bonds, in a pure panic move to save their buddies on Wall St. yet again.
And Trump in bullying Powell into cutting to zero. And signing the CARES act confetti-money-cannon.
Congress is simply despicable and the worst of the worst.
Powell
cut off before timeout – last sentence should read “Powell is a coward.”
Maybe one speech calling for an immediate ceasefire and the cutoff of weapons under her administration as a stick. It would have triggered the entire right but so what, she was never getting their vote anyway. Joe would have been pissed but what could he do about it? Fire her?
A campaign where they spent more than a billion dollars and ended up in the hole for another 20 million has only one concern: Can we get more money from the donors. What do you think AIPAC woulda done if she called for a ceasefire? It’s always about the Benjamins. (Literally.)
I think this is the case for the electorate. It’s harder to articulate in the absence of a reasonable and shared nightly news or morning paper. MSDNC is basically a different planet. Can you imagine the views of a Morning Joe zombie? You would get a Biden or a Harris.
Then there is the right wing media environment. Oh, there is a kid who identifies as a cat in NYC. And I care? I assume CPS has been called.
If I understand correctly, I think this is an important issue you’ve isolated.
Because the media is so polarized and we’re split into echo chambers, we can’t have nice things.
A national reckoning on the pandemic and the subsequent disastrous inflation triggered by the overly crazy fiscal and monetary response, would be healing. In the past, maybe a Tom Brokaw or Walter Cronkite would have objectively pointed out that:
1. While understandable, the fiscal response to the pandemic triggered inflation. They went too far, and the consequences were plain as day.
2. The money did not trickle down – it just enriched the fat cats and set off another stock market rampage that continues to this day. Inflation hurt the middle class (and of course the poor) more than it hurt those who own stocks.
3. Jay Powell is a gutless coward (OK, maybe Walt or Tom wouldn’t say that.)
Right now economic stats explaining the election are being spread like wildfire, but guys like Zach Carter who should have known better kept banging the drum the economy was booming under Biden. Some of it is the echo chamber.
Restarting college loan payments which are particularly slanted towards minorities in September was political malpractice. People seem to be hearing about this for the first time. That is the failure of the media. It may have gained a blurb on the nightly news, but the 24/7 infotainment won’t mention this at all or if it does it will be a blurb without the hours of screaming.
3. Jay Powell is a Republican and an appointee of Donald Trump. The idea Biden would reappoint him was more or less an announcement Biden like Obama before him had no interest in governing.
Thanks for this post. What these stats and the outcomes of state referendums suggest to me is a lot of long time Dem voters have decided they need to go around the national Dem party to achieve the outcomes they want.
The Dem centric MSM scolding every Dem constituency (or maybe now former constituency) for the Harris campaign outcome instead of themselves is interesting. Do they really not understand they’re seen as The Hunger Games party in many peoples’ eyes? Maybe the MSM can have James Carville come on and scold the voters in even stronger language. Yeah, that’s the ticket! That’ll put food on the table. / ;)
adding: a day ago on The Bulwark, Carville said, “Winning is everything. Screw loyalty, winning is everything.”
Well, working class and middle class voters hurt by Bidenomics are trying to win a better economy for themselves by voting for the other team. The vote is entirely understandable in those terms, imo.
I agree, and I think there is more to it. Inflation was/is a problem and many got tired of being told the economy was great and they are stupid for not seeing it. My PMC friends said that all the time. To make it worse, and like twisting a knife in your back, they kept sending millions/billions to the wars while gas prices were high and they couldn’t afford their rent or food. Money for war but not for those who need it here. Then admonish us for being anti-war.
My PMC friends have come to the conclusion that Harris ran a “flawless” campaign and only lost because 72 million people are stupid. Their good old default excuse – your stupid. Well, I think those 72 million people were tired of being told the economy was great, they are just stupid for not seeing it. Inflation has been beat and they are just stupid for not seeing it. Etc.
Yea, endlessly insult my intelligence and what my bank account tells me. Watch how I vote; this ones for you team blue, and it’s called “I’m sick and tired of being called stupid, and I’m also tired of your endless BS. So here, take this and F all the way off.”
They think they are the smartest thing on the planet, yet they learn nothing.
That’s what I have seen too. No self-reflection that Democrats pulled 15 million fewer voters, while trump only went down 3 million from 2020. Trump voters are just stupid. I think democratic voters who aren’t blue anon types just didn’t show up. The true blue dems that did, are ready to Thelma and Louise it off the cliff with the party. RACIST…SEXIST……distant crash/explosion.
I understand some women are going on a sex strike as a protest against the election results. I can’t wait to see when they tune into Archbishop Fulton Sheen on TV every week.
It’s a booming economy if you’re looking at stock portfolios. The proles are too dumb to notice, let alone own stocks, so they have no standing. I wish I was kidding.
We may get that the Harris Walz campaign was as tone deaf as Clinton’s was. That they depended on a myth about demographics rather than actually determining what voters wanted. I may posit that the latter was as much because they knew that most of what voters wanted would mean angering the rich people they were toadies for to get both campaign money and more importantly securing ongoing sinecures for themselves.
But one thing I don’t think should be forgotten is that they were as arrogant as well. Not only did the major human elements of the campaign routinely insult wide numbers of voters, their advertising did as well. But beyond that was the gaslighting. First off the claims that they were defending Democracy took a beating with Kamala’s coronated candidacy. But more importantly the outright continued denial that the country had economic issues and there was no inflation was probably the worst of it. People who are seriously cutting their spending because they are having a hard time paying their bills do not want to be told they are imagining things. Nobody likes being called stupid or crazy even by inference. It might merely be annoying at first, “I shouldn’t have to tell them this…” but eventually it makes it impossible to consider the people passing this off as trustworthy or yes, competent to handle the situation even if that incompetence is clearly willful.
At that point many people who might have disliked both candidates were probably convinced that Harris was NOT the best of a bad bunch.
Interstate migration is something I don’t think the Center for American Progress took into account, and perhaps could not have taken into account, in their projections of which states would turn which colors. And this particularly picked up starting in 2020. It’s notable in Florida in particular, where Tampa turned red for the first time since 2004 and Miami for the first time since 1988. There was a lot of right leaning migration from all over the country into Florida since 2020, and it showed up on the ballot.
Yet that’s not the whole answer, since some of the places they were migrating from, such as New Jersey, also went the farthest right they have gone since 1988.
One thing that people living hand-to-mouth notice that inflation-is-down! boosters don’t is that prices for, e.g. food and rent didn’t come back down, and they are STILL way worse off than before the inflation took off, and will continue to be so pretty much forever.
Don’t forget, inflation down does NOT equal prices restored. This is absolutely critical.
Does Naked Capitalism have a position on the 2020 President popular vote conspiracy theory?
Bear in mind, Yves is good at math, and well, you really only need a middle school education to grasp the ludicrous nature of those claims.
Ask yourself did the Democrats supposedly capable of stealing votes in multiple states with Republican executives forget to cheat this time? Chew that one over.
Then look at items like population growth and the millennial voting age population and the 2016 Clinton campaign. People who say the Earth is flat are more reasonable.
Since you said popular vote, and not electoral vote, it looks to me like once California can be bothered to count its votes, those “missing” votes from the popular vote total won’t really be missing anymore. Or at least not much. CA still at 60something %.
Karl Denninger says he’ll test for statistical deviation when the returns are complete.
Lambert writes a lot about using paper ballots, hand counted, in public on a holiday so that everyone has a chance to vote and the public will believe the results. Unfortunately, many of the voting systems used in the US are far from trustworthy. Cheaters are occasionally caught (vote harvesting,….) and go to jail for election fraud in the down ballot elections. Do we catch all the fraud? Unlikely.
Could the fraud be extensive enough to tip a national election? You’d need to know a lot about the audit mechanisms used in the various election systems to really have an informed view. Most of us just don’t know. Would a cheater be able to pull the wool over the eyes of the person certifying the election results in a few states? You’d need extensive knowledge of the systems used and audits performed to have an informed opinion. I’d like to see much more information about the audit procedures and results publicized.
So, it’s really a matter of trust in the various voting systems. Skeptics say the only reason to use untrustworthy systems is to cheat. The need for Covid-proofing the 2020 election created new opportunities for fraudsters that may not have been easily caught. We’ll never know. Most take it on faith that the systems work reasonably well and that elected officials at least came close to obtaining the number of legitimate votes needed to win.
“I’d like to see much more information about the audit procedures and results publicized.”
Link below for audits. Use the same URL replacing post-election-audits with with election-recounts.
https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits. Follow the link provided in the text for more information about risk limiting audits. Expand the sections to see state by state requirements.
State results can probably be found on Secretary of State websites, or try some searches with state names and some keywords.
Thanks for the links marym. I see lots of procedures to ensure counts are correct but few, if any, that ensure that all are given a chance to vote or that the submitted ballots are properly deemed legitimate. The North Carolina 2020 General Election Audit available to the public provides some confidence that the tabulated ballots are counted correctly but little confidence that the submitted ballots are from legitimate voters, that the submitted mailed ballots are the tabulated ballots, or that eligible voters were able to submit ballots. I see no audit of procedures used to purge names from voter registration rolls or count provisional ballots.
In states that mail all registered voters ballots, one way to cheat would be to predict 3-5% who are highly unlikely to vote and submit ballots on their behalf. The cheater would only need to defeat the checking mechanism on the physical envelope that ties it to the voter (forge the barcode, signature, etc.) With some inside help from the companies responsible for the envelopes the stuffed ballots could pass the physical envelope check. After that, it would be very hard for audit procedures to detect a high proportion of stuffed ballots and even harder to catch the cheater. In the event that audits managed to unearth evidence of such cheating, it’s unlikely it would be reported to the public – might cause voters to lose confidence.
In 2006/2008, I used a touch screen voting machine for the first time. Once selections were made, they were written on a roll of paper inside the machine. There was a small window about knee-high where you might see your votes written on the paper. Verifying the paper votes was so difficult that almost nobody checked. Hopefully, those machines are not used anywhere anymore but they are begging fraudsters to switch votes with code in ways that would be difficult to audit, particularly if the code could be tampered with in real time.
As the voting system becomes more complex, the ways to commit fraud expand exponentially and the audit procedures designed to catch them will be more likely to fail. Complex financial instrument audit failures by CPAs during the financial crisis serve as examples of why the simple voting procedures Lambert advocates are more trustworthy.
Unless you are intimately familiar with potential election fraud schemes associated with multi-day/mail-in voting and the potential for a wide variety of state auditing systems to catch them, trust in our election systems is essentially faith-based. Regardless of whether the fraud claims have merit, way too many people lack faith in the 2020 results because they think the audit systems could be inadequate.
The onus is on designers to demonstrate beyond reasonable doubt that the voting systems are auditable with very low fraud. It’s the only way to earn trust. That’s why the voting systems need to be simple.
States have tons of procedures to mitigate risks of fraud and error. Chain of custody procedures, tracking ballots that have been requested, mailed, and returned, or issued at the polling place, signature verification for mail and in-person voting, cctv to monitor ballot handling procedures, locks on doors and equipment, and post election canvassing. You would need to review state websites for details of specific requirements. The fact that any given non-participant in the process doesn’t happen to know the details of the procedures doesn’t mean that they don’t exist; or that they aren’t open to the public; or that they aren’t conscientiously followed, critiqued, and improved by the election workforce. The decades-long effort and money spent on attempting to discover fraud should tell us something about the quality of the procedures and the integrity of the people who perform them. I personally lack faith in people with power and public platforms who complained endlessly about fraud they never found, harassed and insulted election workers and volunteers in 2020, and then claimed that the people lack faith in the process.
Despite pre- and post-election testing procedures and other security measures, I don’t believe security can be ensured for voting machines, although in the case of machines that produce a machine marked “ballot” some potential “vote switching” can be detected by ballot audits/recounts. Voters in most counties in most states have the option of hand marked ballots for in-person election day voting, and varying levels of access to hand-marked mail ballots. The direct recording technology you describe is no longer widely in use on election day. You would have to dig into state by data for early in-person voting. I do have a viewpoint on the pros and cons of machine tabulators vs hand counting but don’t argue about it much on-line.
Canvassing overview and voting methods
https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/electionofficials/QuickStartGuides/Canvass_and_Certification_EAC_Quick_Start_Guide_508.pdf
https://verifiedvoting.org
no conspiracy. when mail-in voting is made easy, more people vote.
And more people voted Biden because of Trump fatigue, anti-incumbent dissatisfaction with Covid response, and thr sense that having generic politican would be better than Trump
I’d be surprised if anyone at NC would put forward something like that given they were put on Prop or Not and are regularly assailed by trolls and their kin. They provide data and various opinions on topics like that. Then the reader decides.
I think if you polled the commentariat, you’d see that a kind of consensus emerges that Trump lost unfair and square. Any voting irregularities or other issues were likely drowned out by Trump loudly telling his supporters not to use mail in ballots, and that voting in general was no good.
lol, that is a good way to phrase it “unfair and square”.
that said, the Detroit vote counters didn’t help by locking out third parties, lol.
“By 1 p.m., there were 227 Republican challengers freely roaming the floor where the ballots were being counted — almost double the 134 they were permitted to have — and more kept coming. Another 268 Democratic challengers were there too — also double the permitted amount — and there were also another 75 nonpartisan challengers…The Republican challengers got bolder, at one point forming a circle around the tables and clapping and chanting in unison: ‘Stop the count! Stop the count!’…Shortly after 1 p.m. election officials shut the doors to the absentee ballot counting room and turned away all new challengers, even the ones who had stepped out for a lunch break…They screamed at police, complained to the media and banged on the windows to the counting room.
That led to more chaos as officials then put cardboard over the windows, saying challengers were videotaping and photographing the counting process, which intimidated the counters. But after the windows were covered up, the angry challengers banged louder.
…
“I can’t get there either. I’m a Democrat and I’m a lawyer,” said Bill Richards, an attorney from Beverly Hills who monitored the counting process Wednesday morning, but got locked out later in the afternoon. Richards said that he was impressed with the counting process, saying challengers could freely roam the center and approach counters from up to 6 feet behind, and even witness inspectors deciding which ballots could be spoiled or not.
…
Chris Thomas, a former longtime director of elections for the Michigan Secretary of State, addressed the concerns of Republican challengers and debunked rumors of foul play that circulated on social media… “They’re in a good position to come through with a nice clean report,” Thomas said. “I don’t have any questions about it.””
https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2020/11/06/tcf-center-detroit-ballot-counting/6173577002/
At Mike, above:
If you’re referring to the chart which shows a big decline in the overall vote from 2020 to 2024, be aware that the 2024 vote in the chart was as of 1 p.m., 11/6. There was, and is, still counting going on, though it won’t affect the outcome. The 2020 chart is the total after all the vote was counted.
You can expect the 2024 numbers to at least approach the 2020 numbers when the 2024 count is complete.
The figures in the National Popular Vote chart underestimate the actual number of votes because a whole load of states are still learning how to count. We’ll have to wait until that’s done to come to any conclusion.
Regarding the Shannon Watts tweet above, why am I reminded of this quote from Dead Ringers?
“There’s nothing the matter with the instrument, it’s the body. The woman’s body is all wrong!”
I’d like to see data and analysis concerning the dog that didn’t bark: the 10 million voters who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 but were nowhere to be found for Harris in 2024. Who were they? Why didn’t they vote?
I wrote Stein in but might as easily have been one of those Bartlebys. I know my reasons. I’d like to know theirs.
I agree… might be the same question, posed differently:
How many ballots were cast, nation-wide?
How many went Trump?
Harris?
Kennedy Jr.
Stein?
Others?
I have yet to see that data. In MT, Kennedy garnered 10-1 over Stein.
I suspect roughly a 12 million vote differential from Ballots cast and presidential picks made….
Was a message delivered? Will it be ignored?
That’s possibly almost 10% of electorate opting out.
Drill-down follow up. My local County- Gallatin County, Montanny
I uncovered a problem! Will have to check with C & R Monday to see what gives?
Total Ballots cast: 63,366
Total all Presidential: 62,751
Total “for” abortion rights: 64,128 Que Milagro!
Anyway, our county is a Dem stronghold— Harris won, Tester Won, etc ad ad nauseum. Not so the state.
I was wrong on RFK Jr… he outperformed Stein 3-to-1
Libertarian Pres received 50% of that of RFK Jr., and 40% more than Stein Ware.
237 ballots were returned signed and completely blank. Message received, message ignored?
“… and that’s the way it is…”
“How many ballots were cast, nation-wide?” etc.
Do a search on election results 2024. Also, see my link below @1:25 PM.
Well, here’s one. The Biden regime participated enthusiastically in a holocaust for thirteen months and counting. They then extorted those among their supporters with qualms about this into giving them impunity for past crimes and a blank check for future ones. Based on the campaign’s actions down the stretch in Michigan, I think they were trying to drive away the Arab-American community entirely, because they thought they could win anyway and completely marginalize dissent at the same time.
These people will never get what they deserve. (Even if they were sent to Gaza and left there, that wouldn’t do it.) Actually ratifying their ghoulish evil was unthinkable whatever the alternative.
“This chart is from a 2020 Center for American Progress (CAP) report titled “America’s Electoral Future: The Coming Generational Transformation”
It didn’t work out because: “It’s the GFC, stupid.” All the handling and continued effects of it.
Nice one from Graeber. I watched that before a couple of times but it’s great to come back to it. It’s extraordinary how I internalized his views years ago but just don’t get to talk to people in these terms. I’m always forced back into the surface framing of politics, I guess because that’s what most people are dealing with and thinking.
I am reading the CBS question on unfavourability of Both Candidates differently? I see it as more people disfavored Trump than Harris? Not that they voted for Trump, necessarily?
I assumed most of this class opted out at top of ticket?
Really would like to see the ballots cast versus tallies for presidential slot differential.
In Montana, I’d like to see the same thing on I-128- the choice/ codified abortion right initiative. I suspect many may have been single issue voter… what is the differential of ballots cast to the totals per candidate etc?
Terrific post and discussion.
Look at the turn-out numbers — Harris was down a whopping 14 Million votes from Biden’s 2020 total; even Trump was down 2.5 Million from his 2020 numbers. That’s 16.5 Million voters who turned-up their noses — about 11 percent of the 2020 turn-out who stayed away in 2024. That is a significant number.
Why? Because Genocide Joe Biden is a truly awful person and Kamala Harris is constitutionally incapable of acting autonomously from power. I think that drilling-down will show that people, especially young people, stayed away in droves.
Mail in voting likely had a significant impact
It’s not 16.5 million
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/11/dnc-doubles-down-on-failure-rejecting-sanders-calling-out-party-for-abandoning-workers-and-economic-justice.html#comment-4129420
Just using Neuberger’s slide from Axios. We won’t know real numbers until December. Looking like a 10 percent no-show rate under 2020 turnout.
David, agree with you about young people, in the sense of under 30’s especially. I see many of them having the sense to see what their eyes show them – largely yet not entirely genocide – rather than what mainstream media and its adherents tell them to see. tiktok like msnbc/cnn/fox has garbage too but it’s not 100% garbage and the videos of Palestine can’t be explained away if one hasn’t been conditioned to believe in garbage media.
The Axios chart is as of 11/6. I’ve provided updated AP results several times.
Election Lab as of 1 PM 11/9 has 154 ballots counted (not votes for president):
“These estimates are of 1:00pm on Saturday, November 9 and will continue to be revised as more data become available. Understand that most vote-by-mail states are still receiving ballots postmarked by Election Day. In addition to these states, some states are still counting mail and provisional ballots. Initial uncertainty of turnout is typical for every election.”
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/
The swing may not be as wide as suggested by Neuberger’s early Axios numbers, but it’s there and it was significant.
Biden is truly awful and Harris could have and should have run against his record — but her instincts as une grande horizontale (hat-tip Lambert) were to cozy-up to the party apparatchiks alienating their own voters.
At David in Friday…
The 2024 count is incomplete.
Whatever the reason for his win, Trump clearly epitomizes the American Dream.
He was a McDonald’s fry guy with a criminal record only a month ago, then he got a big break by being on the Joe Rogan show two weeks ago, with 40M viewers, and now he is about to become President of the United States.
If he can do it, then so can you!
the latino vote is basically an “other” file when separating voting blocs, comparable to an “anglo” voting bloc with White, Black and Brown all lumped together. Not criticizing, Lambert. We have to play the hand we’re dealt in terms of polls. latino contains white cubans and argentinians, black dominicans and if memory serves about 80% mexicans who are nearly all native by blood.
we’re basically a hard working people. The second generation learns from the first, hard work etc and they don’t want to share their hard earned $ with anyone else. this makes both generations susceptible to voting based on their pocketbook. Other than Morena, PRI and PAN were your basic corrupt entity fleecing the people – same as in the US. So a vote for Trump is more or less a vote for what their personal capital, not an endorsement of the candidate.
one other thing i might add, to counter the belief that those crossing the border are a low educated group – I’ve had many conversations with undoc people over the years. virtually all understand there is a genocide going on, and express sympathy and support for Palestine. They understand what is happening in Cuba and Venezuela and Mexico as well, far better than the majority of americans do.
I grew up in Florida; if CAP thought it was going blue, Tanden is truly high as a kite. The Democrat Party there is completely broken and disfunctional. Losing year after year with a voter registration edge.
The David Graeber analysis presented in the Neuburger piece that focuses on the centrist liberals’ desire to feel morally superior seems right on the money. But I now believe this insight has a much broader application.
For example, when I was, for a time, a member of the Leninist Left in the 1970s, my own failing politics, to a great extent, was built on the then unacknowledged desire to feel morally superior.
Well, this whole poor people being able to vote is a problem. And in an economy that makes a couple of very rich people and a whole lotta poor people, I expect both sides of the uniparty to work hard at making it much harder for poor people to vote.
THE ELITES HAD IT COMING (with Thomas Frank) RJ Eskow
from today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SogjrjL1Ti8
Thanks for the link.
You’re welcome. The host interrupts Frank a lot but it was nice to see Thomas again.
Highly entertaining. I particularly enjoyed Eskow’s comparison of the Trump campaign to a Grateful Dead tour.
And JD Vance is the “Republican Barack Obama”. Oh, ouch!
Yes,very nice one.
Thanks.
p.s. Frank does resemble actor Alan Ruck
https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0001688/?ref_=tt_cl_t_4
Thomas Frank for LE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUE.com, since he mentions his work for them covering the 2 Conventions:
US Democrats surf a wave of catchphrases and consensus
Kamala Harris, or the illusion of change
The selection of Harris as presidential nominee has put a spring in the Democrats’ step and left her opponent Donald Trump flailing. But set aside the feelgood factor and it’s hard to say what she stands for.
by Thomas Frank
Oct. 2024
https://mondediplo.com/2024/10/05usa
https://archive.is/9VQ8n
It would be interesting to talk to people like Frank, Eskow or Hedges and question their “we are heading for really dark times” narrative.
Although Hedges is a different category I suppose. His repeated fear of fascism rising I have not yet cracked in the sense that he builds that on differentiating between corporate authoritarianism and fascist oligarchism.
I am not an economist and it would be instructive to hear knowing people on this view of Hedges´:
The lesser evil being Democrats leaning into corporatism and companies controlling labour, than “Trumpism” which is even worse and developing into an oligarchic system where billionaires purchase everything and pay others to service the companies for them and then sell them off. Supposedly without any long-term interest and attachment, still existent under corporate rule.
In Germany this would amount to regarding a company like KRUPP in the old era less of a problem than KKR buying up German assets today. But this leads to the myth of the benign CEO of a company, of a St. Henry Ford, which I really thought we had gotten over.
It doesn´t make really sense to prefer one over the other. And they originate with the same set of problems.
So it´s odd Hedges argues this way…
Some people are happy with the election results and some are sad. A few have gone straight over the edge. I myself am happy it is over as I have been anxiously awaiting the last installment of William Gibson’s Jackpot Trilogy. On July 4, 2024 he posted:
It looks as if abortion will be a key element in driving the book forward. A world full of useless eaters and their bald, angry mothers. This confirms he was waiting for the election to finish up. A book about the future is not very prescient if you can’t get the evil president correct. I think he may have had two different outlines in mind but now he can finish it at last.
One dumb question: Why this fascination (Thomas Frank e.g.) with J.D. Vance?
I dont´get it…
Or Tucker Carlson for that matter…🤔
Boring, opportunistic VIPs.
Excellent roundup
Gonna bookmark this one. My blue neighbors are all in on “racism/sexism”. I’m listened to, though not making progress on persuasion, and we do have some reasonably sane discussions.