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Israel Agrees to Ceasefire in Lebanon After Ground Invasion Fails

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While a cessation of hostilities should be a welcome event, the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is not cause for great cheer. While it does mean that Israel’s air assault on Beirut and other parts of Lebanon are off for now, and maybe even a long time, that does not mean Israel is foreswearing its belligerent ways. It will instead be free to turn its full attention to Palestine and the West Bank.

The big reason for this ceasefire is that Israel was suffering high costs and getting nowhere in its ground invasion of Lebanon. Colonel Larry Wilkerson estimated that Israel had suffered 8,000 wounded in action, an unsustainably high level, while getting only a few kilometers into the country. But Israel had driven Lebanese citizens near the border out of their homes (and destroyed many) and was also doing great damage to Beirut and other civilian areas. So Hezbollah, which is a political party and part of the Lebanese government apparatus, could not oppose a ceasefire that would spare Lebanese lives and property, even if it mean reneging on its promise to keep fighting Israel as long as the war in Gaza continued.

One question over my pay grade is what this means for the promised Iran retaliation on Israel. Professor Mohammed Marandi, who so far has been accurate in his calls about Iran’s action, has maintained that Iran will strike Israel in response to its attack on Iran. Professor Marandi had also said the reason Iran had held back on its second attack (the one after the assassinations on Hamas political leader Haniyeh and Lebanon’s Nasrallah) because Gaza ceasefire headfakes talks were underway, and Iran did not want to be accused of being a spoiler. There are some bleats about a Gaza ceasefire in the wake of the Lebanon deal.

Just as I was writing this section, this new entry appeared on the Aljazeera live blog:

Tehran reserves the right to react to last month’s air strikes on Iran, but it also considers other developments in the region such as the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said.

Note that there are some remarks in the Twitterverse and by some pundits that Iran will guarantee Hezbolah’s performance. That seems to be based on a misleading Haaretz headline: Israel May Sign Cease-fire Deal With Lebanon, but Iran Will Guarantee Hezbollah’s Compliance. The subhead says: “Only Iran can guarantee that the organization abides by the agreement with Israel.” Iran was not a party to these negotiations and has guaranteed squat.

We are far from alone in our assessment of the pact. From Sam Husseini:

While Israel killed thousands in Lebanon, it was unable to advance more than a few miles into the country, leading many to argue that this was a major reason for Israel agreeing to a ceasefire..

Many simply hear “ceasefire” and think good.

Given Israel’s record, this may be naive.

Netanyahu (born Mileikowsky) himself said that he had three reasons for agreeing to a ceasefire: to “focus on the Iranian threat,” to “give our forces a breather and replenish stocks” and to “separate the fronts and isolate Hamas.”

That is, he effectively says he wants more war in other places.

And Mike Hampton:

Today, at 0200 GMT, a USA/France brokered ceasefire began between Israel and Lebanon. Strangely, no copy of the deal is yet available but is said to include a 60-day implementation period during which:

  • Israel will leave Lebanon.
  • Hezbollah will withdraw north of the Litani River, which is up to 30km away from the border with Israel.
  • The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will act as a peacekeeping force, replacing Hezbollah in the evacuated area.

This means that:

  1. The USA and France are anti-war and anti-colonialism nations without agenda except for peace and human rights in the Middle East.
  2. The Israeli’s have won their war against Lebanon.
  3. Hezbollah is defeated.
  4. Netanhayu is an honest man.
  5. Palestine is screwed.

Or:

  1. The USA and France are pretending peace like Germany and France did to Russia regarding Ukraine with the Minsky II agreement in 2015.
  2. Hezbollah has inflicted such severe injury on Israeli troops that they need to either regroup, or focus only on Palestine.
  3. The main intention is to weaken Hezbollah via the Lebanese Armed Forces.
  4. Netanhayu misleads.
  5. Palestine is screwed.

I’m not covering all the options, just making a point. You can decide if you’re an optimist, pessimist or realist whilst further considering that there was a going-away party.

With the ceasefire deal approved by the Israeli cabinet, but hours from its stated start, Israel showed good faith by launching its largest attack on Beirut.

As of when I last checked Twitter, there was still no report of a published a text of the deal.

The wave of residents of South Lebanon returning home confirms the widespread desire in Lebanon to end or at least halt the conflict:

The mainstream media and many well-regarded English language Mideast sites like Middle East Eye were depicting the ceasefire as in place.

But Twitter featured multiple, separate sightings of Israel persisting in attacks. Note there seem to be several incidents in Khiyam:

Even a Jerusalem Post headline included IDF fires at Lebanese, Hezbollah, returning to southern Lebanon. Israel maintains the shots were at Hezbolloh forces.

Separate and apart from whether the IDF complies with the ceasefire, the settlers in northern Israel are a wild card. Ben Gvir has been arming settlers in the West Bank. Will the settlers in Northern Israel take, or be encouraged to take, a similarly acquisitive posture?

The wags are arguing whether France giving Netanyahu and Gallant immunity from the ICC warrant was a sweetener to get the ceasefire done or alternatively, France using the agreement as cover to do what it was inclined to do anyhow…

As best as we can tell, this pact keys off the old 2000 deal, UN Resolution 1701 in which Israel withdraws to the old “blue line,” Hezbollah pulls back to the Litani River, and UN peacekeepers intervene. Here, the toothless Lebanese army gets again to police Southern Lebanon. From Associated Press:

International mediators hope that by boosting financial support for the Lebanese army — which was not a party in the Israel-Hezbollah war — Lebanon can deploy some 6,000 additional troops south of the Litani River to help enforce the resolution. Under the deal, an international monitoring committee headed by the United States would oversee implementation to ensure that Hezbollah and Israel’s withdrawals take place.

You can see where this is going. Israel violations, like the ones that are already occurring, will be ignored by the US, while any by Lebanon will be pinned on Hezbollah (whether or not the case) and used as a casus belli if and when Israel is willing to resume a fight. Even many independent experts see the IDF as tired and battered, the political leadership of Israel sees the fight to take Greater Israel as eschatological. In keeping, Larry Wilkerson, in an interview right before the deal was announced (but there was ample speculation) said Netanyahu had not gone to the Knesset for approval (which may also explain the hiding of its text) and said he was pretty confident any agreement would give Netanyahu control, in particular freedom to re-start the conflict. So this ceasefire may not be that long-lived:

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30 comments

  1. ISL

    Hard to see how Hezbollah retreats to the Litani given its underground fortifications are not north of the Litani.

    My sentiment is with Dr Sheline – the “ceasefire” will not last long. Perhaps no longer than the headlines remain current.

    1. Jason Boxman

      I found that puzzling as well; I thought they’d been fortifying that area since after 2006. Granted with longer range missiles, they might not need to be so close to the border any longer.

    2. Anonted

      I chuckled at that one too. Impressive, how we manipulate weaknesses into strengths. Taking off my evil hat, as in Gaza, the choice of targets in Lebanon implies social erasure (ISIS tactics, coincidentally), and likely in the same spirit, targets the society’s builders, tastemakers and intelligentsia, taking on a eugenic character. I wonder if IBM powers any of the selection process this time.

      With any awareness of the animus of Israeli society, one really should take such agreements with a mine of salt, as their motivations go well beyond material conquest. Their intentions may be to stem their own bleeding for now, but they are likely to resume the erasure once the IDF gets some R&R, in Amsterdam maybe. Everyone’s being sucked back home like krill to a whale.

    3. ilsm

      Why would Hezbollah move one inch north. Israel needs the cease fire.

      Netanyahu is floundering

      He can’t beat Hezbollah so he is keying on bigger, farther away Iran!

      He must rearm bc 5 divisions off Lebanon are ground down with no gain.

      He has to do Hamas, now a multi year deal

      US will send more bombs!

      Iran will respond.

    1. Louis Fyne

      irrelevant, coincidental. The IDF got their proverbial derrieres handed to them by the Hezbollah layered defense and deep retailiatory rocket strikes.

      Of course, as we are living in the narrative era, it is a cease fire….not strategic loss for Israeli.

      1. Jeff N

        Yes, I remember them doing something awful around Xmas last year (a time US citizens are paying less attention)

  3. Lefty Godot

    So best case is this lasts for 60 days and more probable case is Israel keeps shooting over the border despite the supposed ceasefire? It sounds like this is the Biden team’s attempt to kick the can down the road to when Trump’s term starts. What about Ansar Allah? Are they in sync with Hezbollah or will they keep the southern front hot?

    1. The Rev Kev

      Alex Christoforou makes a similar point. That the reason that it goes for two months is so Team Biden can claim that they brought peace to this part of the war – while continually re-arming them. And when Netanyahu starts attacking Lebanon again in two months time, Trump will be in power and it will all be on him for which the Democrats blame him. So for Biden it is all about playing political games. Netanyahu probably agreed on the grounds that his IDF were being ground up by Hezbollah and the casualties were becoming unsustainable. He will claim it as a win and say that Hezbollah was defeated, that they were running out of men, running out of missiles (shades of Zelensky) but the actual fact was that the IDF were defeated by Hezbollah – yet again and just like those pre-war war games predicted. But hey, just so long as Netanyahu’s political position was secured it’s all good.

    3. Balan Aroxdale

      So best case is this lasts for 60 days and more probable case is Israel keeps shooting over the border despite the supposed ceasefire?

      Not sure if its been mentioned but practically speaking 60 days runs us through winter and into spring. So this could be a winter pause. If so, resumption might be weather dependant.

  4. Es s Ce Tera

    re: Destruction of Baalbek.

    Despite that we’re now realizing Hebrews joined and became Canaanites, and Canaanites (including Hebrews) worshipped Baal, the invocation to remember the Amaleks is a call to remember Yahweh’s command to destroy the men, women, children and property of anyone associated with Baal (e.g. specifically to commit a genocide). Which might be why we’re seeing this destruction of Baalbek for no obvious military reason, seemingly out of spite. Just a thought. Historically, of course, they failed to implement the genocide, so never quite ethnically cleansed the land from their gracious hosts so as to claim it for themselves.

  5. raspberry jam

    I have been assigned to a multi-year project since March with a company based in Tel Aviv and spend most of the US morning to mid-day on video conference calls with the technical team there. For the past month or so the rate of rockets reaching Tel Aviv has ramped up considerably compared to earlier this year. Every day, multiple people in different parts of the city, multiple times during the calls would get up and retreat to their safe rooms/shelters. They have been so frequent and they are so conditioned to them now they just leave their video running while they walk away for a few minutes. They receive alerts through a phone app that tells them when an interception from iron dome is targeting something near their location. Prior to the ground invasion of Lebanon these alerts were not frequently reaching TLV at all, maybe once or twice a month, and they triggered district alarms not the cell phone app alerts. Civilian exhaustion/pressure from this constant disruption may have also been a factor in accepting a temporary ceasefire now.

    2. Emma

      I’m guessing that they’ve expressed zero sympathy in any of these lengthy meetings for any of the Lebanese and Palestinians who are enduring Israel’s bombardment with no protection, not even a tent in cold rainy weather. And they’re intentionally starving them and denying them of anaesthesics. They’re all like this.

      https://x.com/AbbyMartin/status/1861141934812864559

  6. JMH

    The cease fire will last as long as convenient to Israel at which point a pretext will appear just before the first bomb explodes.

    1. ChrisPacific

      The pretext is built in: the condition that Hezbollah will withdraw. Everybody knows Hezbollah moves around via the hidden tunnels at will and concealed from all sight and evidence, with a particular propensity to cluster underneath hospitals, mosques, and any other civilian infrastructure that Israel wants to target.

      You can already see this in use with the justification of continued firing after the agreement (it was targeted at Hezbollah, who agreed not to be there).

  7. XXYY

    While there is speculation that the IDF will cynically use the relief provided by the “ceasefire” to rebuild and reposition it’s forces, there is no reason Hezbollah cannot and should not do the same. Hezbollah should now (a) have taken a good measure of current IDF weapons and tactics, and (b) be convinced that this ceasefire will be very short term in duration and not any kind of return to “normality”.

    Seems like the Hezbollah priorities should be:

    O Look for ways to protect the civilian population in Beirut and elsewhere against ruthless Gaza-style attacks, either by obtaining and positioning AD type weapons, and/or preparing to rapidly attack airbases and missile sites in Israel upon resumption of battle.

    O Prepare for the now-known tactics of the IDF when the war resumes so the latter will be hit really hard right away and so your own forces will be well protected. Morale in the IDF seems to be their weak point (rightly so), so take advantage of this if possible.

    O The sympathy of much/most of the world’s people is behind Lebanon & Hezbollah; make that work for you by making connections with the popular media so everyone can clearly and quickly see what is happening and so the official Lebanese government will feel the wind at their backs despite official Israeli supporters trying to put them in the middle.

    Hopefully the ceasefire can work for the Lebanese people as well as the IDF.

  8. T Martin

    My bet is that if a ‘ceasefire, it won’t last ten days between parties, especially if the IDF can target whomever it wants (re: The Cradle) and Hezbollah has to stand down. But don’t cound to Haaretz for news because it has been sanctioned. If Israel is n’t able to get lebanon and Syria, where goes Greater Israel. “Meanwhile: Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has called for “thinning” the Palestinian population of Gaza by half in two years, claiming it can be done through occupying Gaza directly and encouraging so-called “voluntary migration.” ( otherwise the elimination of 500k Palestinians poer year)by any means foul). This so the US can continue fianancin g war criminals and a genocide? One might think that for a country like Israel oil imports would be of prime concern and not beach front property built on the ghosts of murdered Palestinians (re: movie Poltergeist). Things will be interesting if Iran gets some missiles from Russia, it won’t need to go nuclear, no international treaties required.

  9. MFB

    CraIg Murray.

    Also, was listening to Biden saying that the evil terrorist Hizbollah has been defeated, and the Israeli-American “negotiator” saying that this freed up the Israeli military to bring “peace” to Gaza.

    This will not end well on any level.

  10. Emma

    I think Hezbollah may have agreed to allow this deal to go through because they believe it will be obviously broken by Israel immediately and then they will have the leverage to go all out against Israel.

    I’ve heard that the Americans forced this deal in the Lebanese by saying Israel will target Lebanese critical infrastructure now that they’ve ran out of any targeting that could even be argued to be military Hezbollah targets. Which means the next step is to target water treatment, hospitals, supermarkets, etc. I think this will happen anyways unless Lebanese fascists give them the civil war that the Americans have been asking for for two months. Hezbollah and Iran and Syria knows that if Israel finishes the job in Gaza, the West is coming for them one by one.

    Why doesn’t Russia and China and RoW get it yet?

    1. Mikel

      “Why doesn’t Russia and China and RoW get it yet?”

      They still hold out hope that the “West” is going to treat them as equals…different from the people in the ME.

  11. vidimi

    I agree with your assessment, this ceasefire is no cause for celebration.

    We seem to be going back to the status quo ante of Israel obliterating the Palestinians but with no resistance from Hezbollah this time. Israel may have been suffering worse losses than they would like but Hezbollah was getting toasted. The command was decapitated and many missile launchers were getting abandoned or destroyed since Israel got really good at finding them after they launched within a few minutes.

  12. Paul Greenwood

    I understand the Lebanese Army has documented multiple breaches by Israel but that the report vanished into a Ceasefire Committee with Israel and USA in driving seat. The Defence Minister is sidelined by Gen Aoun the 80 year old the U.S. and Israel want in control of the country.

    No doubt the 15 CIA men who popped over to the US Embassy in Beirut have the uncut diamonds and gold bars to buy their agents in what passes in Lebanon for a government

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