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Israel Agrees to Ceasefire in Lebanon After Ground Invasion Fails

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While a cessation of hostilities should be a welcome event, the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is not cause for great cheer. While it does mean that Israel’s air assault on Beirut and other parts of Lebanon are off for now, and maybe even a long time, that does not mean Israel is foreswearing its belligerent ways. It will instead be free to turn its full attention to Palestine and the West Bank.

The big reason for this ceasefire is that Israel was suffering high costs and getting nowhere in its ground invasion of Lebanon. Colonel Larry Wilkerson estimated that Israel had suffered 8,000 wounded in action, an unsustainably high level, while getting only a few kilometers into the country. But Israel had driven Lebanese citizens near the border out of their homes (and destroyed many) and was also doing great damage to Beirut and other civilian areas. So Hezbollah, which is a political party and part of the Lebanese government apparatus, could not oppose a ceasefire that would spare Lebanese lives and property, even if it mean reneging on its promise to keep fighting Israel as long as the war in Gaza continued.

One question over my pay grade is what this means for the promised Iran retaliation on Israel. Professor Mohammed Marandi, who so far has been accurate in his calls about Iran’s action, has maintained that Iran will strike Israel in response to its attack on Iran. Professor Marandi had also said the reason Iran had held back on its second attack (the one after the assassinations on Hamas political leader Haniyeh and Lebanon’s Nasrallah) because Gaza ceasefire headfakes talks were underway, and Iran did not want to be accused of being a spoiler. There are some bleats about a Gaza ceasefire in the wake of the Lebanon deal.

Just as I was writing this section, this new entry appeared on the Aljazeera live blog:

Tehran reserves the right to react to last month’s air strikes on Iran, but it also considers other developments in the region such as the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said.

Note that there are some remarks in the Twitterverse and by some pundits that Iran will guarantee Hezbolah’s performance. That seems to be based on a misleading Haaretz headline: Israel May Sign Cease-fire Deal With Lebanon, but Iran Will Guarantee Hezbollah’s Compliance. The subhead says: “Only Iran can guarantee that the organization abides by the agreement with Israel.” Iran was not a party to these negotiations and has guaranteed squat.

We are far from alone in our assessment of the pact. From Sam Husseini:

While Israel killed thousands in Lebanon, it was unable to advance more than a few miles into the country, leading many to argue that this was a major reason for Israel agreeing to a ceasefire..

Many simply hear “ceasefire” and think good.

Given Israel’s record, this may be naive.

Netanyahu (born Mileikowsky) himself said that he had three reasons for agreeing to a ceasefire: to “focus on the Iranian threat,” to “give our forces a breather and replenish stocks” and to “separate the fronts and isolate Hamas.”

That is, he effectively says he wants more war in other places.

And Mike Hampton:

Today, at 0200 GMT, a USA/France brokered ceasefire began between Israel and Lebanon. Strangely, no copy of the deal is yet available but is said to include a 60-day implementation period during which:

  • Israel will leave Lebanon.
  • Hezbollah will withdraw north of the Litani River, which is up to 30km away from the border with Israel.
  • The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will act as a peacekeeping force, replacing Hezbollah in the evacuated area.

This means that:

  1. The USA and France are anti-war and anti-colonialism nations without agenda except for peace and human rights in the Middle East.
  2. The Israeli’s have won their war against Lebanon.
  3. Hezbollah is defeated.
  4. Netanhayu is an honest man.
  5. Palestine is screwed.

Or:

  1. The USA and France are pretending peace like Germany and France did to Russia regarding Ukraine with the Minsky II agreement in 2015.
  2. Hezbollah has inflicted such severe injury on Israeli troops that they need to either regroup, or focus only on Palestine.
  3. The main intention is to weaken Hezbollah via the Lebanese Armed Forces.
  4. Netanhayu misleads.
  5. Palestine is screwed.

I’m not covering all the options, just making a point. You can decide if you’re an optimist, pessimist or realist whilst further considering that there was a going-away party.

With the ceasefire deal approved by the Israeli cabinet, but hours from its stated start, Israel showed good faith by launching its largest attack on Beirut.

As of when I last checked Twitter, there was still no report of a published a text of the deal.

The wave of residents of South Lebanon returning home confirms the widespread desire in Lebanon to end or at least halt the conflict:

The mainstream media and many well-regarded English language Mideast sites like Middle East Eye were depicting the ceasefire as in place.

But Twitter featured multiple, separate sightings of Israel persisting in attacks. Note there seem to be several incidents in Khiyam:

Even a Jerusalem Post headline included IDF fires at Lebanese, Hezbollah, returning to southern Lebanon. Israel maintains the shots were at Hezbolloh forces.

Separate and apart from whether the IDF complies with the ceasefire, the settlers in northern Israel are a wild card. Ben Gvir has been arming settlers in the West Bank. Will the settlers in Northern Israel take, or be encouraged to take, a similarly acquisitive posture?

The wags are arguing whether France giving Netanyahu and Gallant immunity from the ICC warrant was a sweetener to get the ceasefire done or alternatively, France using the agreement as cover to do what it was inclined to do anyhow…

As best as we can tell, this pact keys off the old 2000 deal, UN Resolution 1701 in which Israel withdraws to the old “blue line,” Hezbollah pulls back to the Litani River, and UN peacekeepers intervene. Here, the toothless Lebanese army gets again to police Southern Lebanon. From Associated Press:

International mediators hope that by boosting financial support for the Lebanese army — which was not a party in the Israel-Hezbollah war — Lebanon can deploy some 6,000 additional troops south of the Litani River to help enforce the resolution. Under the deal, an international monitoring committee headed by the United States would oversee implementation to ensure that Hezbollah and Israel’s withdrawals take place.

You can see where this is going. Israel violations, like the ones that are already occurring, will be ignored by the US, while any by Lebanon will be pinned on Hezbollah (whether or not the case) and used as a casus belli if and when Israel is willing to resume a fight. Even many independent experts see the IDF as tired and battered, the political leadership of Israel sees the fight to take Greater Israel as eschatological. In keeping, Larry Wilkerson, in an interview right before the deal was announced (but there was ample speculation) said Netanyahu had not gone to the Knesset for approval (which may also explain the hiding of its text) and said he was pretty confident any agreement would give Netanyahu control, in particular freedom to re-start the conflict. So this ceasefire may not be that long-lived:

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6 comments

  1. ISL

    Hard to see how Hezbollah retreats to the Litani given its underground fortifications are not north of the Litani.

    My sentiment is with Dr Sheline – the “ceasefire” will not last long. Perhaps no longer than the headlines remain current.

    Reply ↓
    1. Jason Boxman

      I found that puzzling as well; I thought they’d been fortifying that area since after 2006. Granted with longer range missiles, they might not need to be so close to the border any longer.

      Reply ↓
    2. Anonted

      I chuckled at that one too. Impressive, how we manipulate weaknesses into strengths. Taking off my evil hat, as in Gaza, the choice of targets in Lebanon implies social erasure (ISIS tactics, coincidentally), and likely in the same spirit, targets the society’s builders, tastemakers and intelligentsia, taking on a eugenic character. I wonder if IBM powers any of the selection process this time.

      With any awareness of the animus of Israeli society, one really should take such agreements with a mine of salt, as their motivations go well beyond material conquest. Their intentions may be to stem their own bleeding for now, but they are likely to resume the erasure once the IDF gets some R&R, in Amsterdam maybe. Everyone’s being sucked back home like krill to a whale.

      Reply ↓
    1. Louis Fyne

      irrelevant, coincidental. The IDF got their proverbial derrieres handed to them by the Hezbollah layered defense and deep retailiatory rocket strikes.

      Of course, as we are living in the narrative era, it is a cease fire….not strategic loss for Israeli.

      Reply ↓

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