The world’s oldest Douglas fir trees have lived over 1,000 years FOX
How the Ancient Sumerians Created the World’s First Writing System Literary Hub
Climate
Plankton may not survive global warming with “devastating effects” Oceanographic
Water
How much water do Colorado communities actually need? In one, surprisingly little Colorado Sun
Syndemics
Despite warnings from bird flu experts, it’s business as usual in California dairy country LA Times
Canadian probe into teen’s critical H5N1 infection finds no clear source Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy
Microorganisms: The Growing Phenomenon of ‘Frozen’ Virus Genome Sequences and Their Likely Origin in Research Facility Escapes Avian Flu Diary
Thanksgiving Pre-Game Festivities
Take the turkey, leave the gravy: Thanksgiving food that TSA might confiscate at airport security FOX
Why a Family ‘F*rt Walk’ Should Be on Your Agenda This Thanksgiving SELF
China?
Beijing initiative on global supply chain cooperation released at 2nd CISCE CGTN
In careful protest, China Evergrande’s investors press for action Channel News Asia
‘Groundless’: China dismisses report about corruption probe into defence chief Dong Jun South China Morning Post
India
Adani Group says it lost nearly US$55 billion as US charges sparked rout Channel News Asia
Syraqistan
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire takes effect, halting deadly war in Lebanon CBS. Commentary:
Don’t be fooled by the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. It will not hold for long, given the weakness and passivity of the Lebanese Armed Forces. Israel retains the right to carry out military strikes within Lebanon to “enforce” the terms of the ceasefire. It can… https://t.co/TwRPE3yWyj
— Chris Hedges (@ChrisLynnHedges) November 26, 2024
Anger and distrust among displaced Israelis at ceasefire deal BBC
Israel May Sign Cease-fire Deal With Lebanon, but Iran Will Guarantee Hezbollah’s Compliance Haaretz
UN Resolution 1701 is at the heart of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. What is it? AP
* * * Displaced Craig Murray
* * * Surge in New Settler-supporting Parties Ahead of Next World Zionist Congress Elections Haaretz
* * * Supporters of Pakistan’s Imran Khan call off protest, his party says Reuters
Turkish bankers refilling ATMs three times a day as Erdogan resists printing bigger banknotes BNE Intellinews
US reconsiders F-35 sales to Türkiye after seeing KAAN fly: National Defense Minister Anadolu Agency
The New Great Game
The Georgian ombudsman backed parliament’s legitimacy, but 37 colleagues opposed JAM News
European Disunion
Scuffles in Serbian parliament as deadly station collapse sparks anger at the government AP
New Not-So-Cold War
Putin Isn’t Bluffing: Intermediate-Range Hypersonic Missile ‘Warning’ National Interest
Why all the fuss about Russia’s newly demonstrated Oreshnik hypersonic missile? Gilbert Doctorow
Swell of ‘WWIII’ Red Herrings Aims to Drown Out Mounting Russian Success Simplicius, Simplicius the Thinker
* * * Trump can’t deliver a peace deal, says ex-Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba Politico
Russia rejects the possibility of freezing the frontline and insists on Ukraine’s capitulation – ISW Ukrainska Pravda
Responding to America’s Machiavelli Wannabes on Ukraine Landmarks: A Journal of International Dialogue
* * * Russia accelerates advance in Ukraine’s east Reuters
Britain and France Just Surged Ukraine’s Cruise Missile Stockpiles Ready For Major Deep Strikes Into Russia Military Watch
Ukraine war briefing: Kyiv pulls back 100,000 mortar rounds after failures Guardian
* * * Sixty British troops deployed to investigate drones over US airbases The Times. Commentary:
Scott Bessent, Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary, is saying that their tariffs is a "10 year project" to make the Chinese consume more and manufacture less.
This says so much about so many things…
First of all, when your competitive strategy is premised on shaping your… https://t.co/K09XIOOiME
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) November 26, 2024
More Nord Stream intrigue! Bud’s Offshore Energy
South of the Border
BRICS Corridor: China Eyes Pacific-Atlantic Rail Project via Bolivia and Brazil Orinoco Tribune
Trump Transition
Trump proves he is serious on tariffs – but it’s not about trade BBC. Commentary:
Scott Bessent, Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary, is saying that their tariffs is a "10 year project" to make the Chinese consume more and manufacture less.
This says so much about so many things…
First of all, when your competitive strategy is premised on shaping your… https://t.co/K09XIOOiME
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) November 26, 2024
Tariffs, Low Prices, Wall Street. Pick Two Matt Stoller, BIG
* * * Jay Bhattacharya, prominent physician and economist, nominated by Trump for NIH director FOX
Marty Malarkey Closed Form
* * * Breaking norms, Trump signs transition memorandum with Biden White House Al Jazeera
How Trump Plans to Seize the Power of the Purse From Congress ProPublica
Eight is Enough Doomberg (PI).
Antitrust
Justice Dept., Google make closing arguments in ad-market antitrust case WaPo
Spook Country
We Tracked Every Visitor to Epstein Island WIRED. “Many of the visitors were likely wealthy, as indicated by coordinates pointing to gated communities in Michigan, as well as homes in Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket in Massachusetts.”
Digital Watch
Tether Has Become a Massive Money Laundering Tool for Mexican Drug Traffickers, Feds Say 404 Media
Australia moves step closer to world-first social media ban for under-16s Al Jazeera. See NC for online age verification issues.
The Final Frontier
Why India’s latest Sun mission finding is crucial for the world BBC
Zircon trace element evidence for early hydrothermal activity on Mars Science
Zeitgeist Watch
Hallucinogenic sci-fi movie: Inside the rather bizarre relaunch of Jaguar Car Dealer
Imperial Collapse Watch
The U.S. Navy Can’t Build Ships Foreign Policy
Biden’s ‘Samson Option’ Patrick Lawrence, Consortium News
Class Warfare
Billionaire Megadonors Push State Courts Rightward Exposed by CMD
* * * Thoughts on Oligarchy John R. MacArthur, Harper’s
The USA 2025, Germany 1933 History Unfolding
Antidote du jour (Lucy from manchester, uk):
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.
Trump´s latest oddity, Sebastian Gorka.
John Kiriakou on Scheerpost:
Sebastian Gorka Is Back
https://scheerpost.com/2024/11/27/john-kiriakou-sebastian-gorka-is-back/
“Sebastian Gorka is back. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump last week named Gorka as the administration’s “terrorism czar” on the National Security Council. Trump has made a series of disastrous appointments to his administration since his election on Nov. 5. But this might be the worst. Don’t remember Sebastian Gorka?
Eight years ago, when Trump was elected president for the first time, Gorka was one of his more controversial appointments as “deputy assistant to the president for national security affairs,” that is, deputy national security adviser. That’s a hugely important position. The deputy national security advisor assists the president in managing the entire intelligence community and manages the administration’s anti-terrorism efforts. But Gorka immediately ran into trouble.”
When picking members of his team a President must assure all factions that supported him that have real power (ordinary citizens not included) that they are getting their piece of the pie, so to speak. Gorka solidly represents the fascist part of Trumps support that they have agency so tha that faction will no try to sabotage Trumps efforts in more important areas. Terrorism is, largely, a phony issue and a phony term used to gaslight the public in order to give some kind of justification to repressive measures. This may be to take action against anti-genocide student protesters or hassle (real) leftists. We’ll just have to see. The current set up of the new Trump administration reflects the real power in Washington and, so far, Trump has accurately reflected his real political support among those in power. We will just have to see which factions dominate policy and whether any of his efforts will help or hinder those of us without much power.
A sixty day ceasefire designed to fail
If it doesn’t, Bibi will land in jail
He should sound the retreat
For his troops have been beat
And there’s no chance they’ll ever prevail
Both sides have signed for a fragile ceasefire
And the French will return to their old empire
All at Hezbollah’s peril:
The Israelis stay feral
They’ll attack any time they desire
The IDF has to repair and rebuild
Their quest for fresh blood for a time goes unfilled
Meanwhile Gaza is swimming in feces
A testament to our mad species
Israel cannot pay their wereguild
These northern Israelis don’t plan to go back
‘Who wants to live in a tarp covered shack?’
‘We’re not Palestinians!’
‘We had condominiums!’
‘We could die before we can unpack!’
This ceasefire will last, perhaps,
Till the IDF studies their maps
When Hezbollah won’t leave
For they aren’t that naive
That is that—this ceasefire will collapse
Bibi says he will bomb Iran after this
He keeps leading Israelis into an abyss
No one’s jets will get far
Against Russian radar
And Iran’s missiles do not miss
The U.S. can bomb Iran when they choose
Iran will then close the Strait of Hormuz
At $300 per barrel
There’ll be no Christmas carol
In three days we’ll admit that We Lose
And this in 6-minutes ago…
IDF opens fire as Lebanese return to southern villages where troops still deployed
Calm appears to hold, but Katz orders ‘forceful’ action, claiming Hezbollah members among those rushing back in defiance of instructions * Hamas says it’s ready for ceasefire too
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-november-27-2024/
“US reconsiders F-35 sales to Türkiye after seeing KAAN fly: National Defense Minister”
For the love of Allah, why are the Turks wanting to get F-35s in their air fleet? Would you believe that after all these years, that they still can’t get the F-35 guns to shoot straight?
https://archive.md/bbTpg
Probably because their homebrew plane is worse.
The KAAN has made surprising progress and looks (on paper) like a good aircraft, but it is likely a very long way from being fully operational and isn’t all that likely to be as good as Gen 5 aircraft from the big traditional countries – the Turks just don’t have the resources or industrial base to be able to match other powers.
The F-35 for Turkey would be a decent stop gap, and being part of the project would almost certainly give the Turks a foothold into some of the more obscure industrial tech required to make a genuine independent stealth contender, which is probably their main motivation in this. They are also probably motivated by having their traditional biggest foe, Greece having a squadron (20) of F-35’s. I know its standard now for everyone to diss the F-35 but it has some genuine groundbreaking capabilities which makes it something of a force multiplier for your older Gen 4 air force, which is why most countries want to get their hands on some.
Redistribution of kick-backs? The higher the price, the larger the commission.
Another day, another reminder that we live in the darkest time line.
Need many many cat pictures…
The Rev is at your service-
https://unsplash.com/s/photos/cat
I detest AI, but my search for 100% evil is frustrated by this:
https://x.com/OlgaBazova/status/1861297440789233923?t=zfeuvjlATS_QlSnjAUL6Qw&s=19
Hang in there Emma!
Thank you! I really needed this!
Wonderful photograph:
https://www.nhm.ac.uk/wpy/gallery/2023-forest-rodeo
Bodega cats, lots of them, all sorts in all sorts of situations. These hard working felines have a flair all their own:
https://www.reddit.com/r/bodegacats/?rdt=43681
“Hallucinogenic sci-fi movie: Inside the rather bizarre relaunch of Jaguar”
So the future of Jaguar is both androgynous and cheerless. Good to know. If this advert had come out five years ago, it would have been par for the course. But now? If the re-election of Trump proved nothing else, it showed that the time of this nonsense has well and truly passed. Here is the actual video for those who have not seen it-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLtFIrqhfng (30 secs)
Somebody said that they looked like the Telly Tubbies after they had grown up.
I had read about the controversy, but not yet seen the ad. From the hip, I can only shoot two comments:
1) This is supposed to be an advertisement? It never shows any product. The association of the brand with a product (range) is missing.
2) I found it vaguely reminiscent of some early 1970s trends — exacerbated, tacky, supposedly provocatively modern aesthetics typical of a deliquescent culture that has exhausted its creative strength.
I do not quite understand how upper management could sign off on that production.
It looks like some Neflix Grace Jones remake thingy.
Nonono. Grace Jones is awesome and Jaguar is a car brand.
She’s Lost Control (long version) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N64I_7HibVE (8:14)
The Jaguar ad in question is reminiscent of United Colors of Benetton. On its own it’s hilarious. But the reactions to it show how useful this kind of thing continues to be to the broader goal of keeping us from talking about real politics.
Nothing dulls faster than the Cutting Edge, but this edge has been worn down for many years. Quite embarrassing…
Oh, and don’t they have long-standing reputation of being lousy cars?
The Lucas electrics and SU carburators were always notoriously finicky.
Gorgeous coachwork though. The E type is the epitome of “sports car” in my book. The K and S types were no shirkers, not to mention the Marks.
In a world from long ago, they made wonderful machines.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8a7Qx4Em49U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22NTet2n-Sg
More recently, yes. Lousy….
re: The USA 2025, Germany 1933 History Unfolding
This piece is fascinating and almost unique in its mindboggling incompetence.
I have ran across it quickly. But already there I found crazy mistakes like this:
“Although Hitler’s militia the SA lost a power struggle in the first 18 months of his rule and was decapitated in June 1934, the competing SS under Heinrich Himmler assumed key police powers almost at once.”
NOT Hitler´s militia in a way SS would have been opposed to him. The name of Ernst Röhm, the boss of SA is not mentioned once. In fact The Night of the Long Knives 1934 happened for the very reason that SA was NOT Hitler´s SA.
This is kindergarten-level. No further comment.
Or this:
“Trump seems to want to create a state based entirely on personal allegiance to himself while removing all governmental obstacles to maximum profit and economic disruption. This is nearly the opposite of Hitler, who wanted to marshal all of Germany’s resources to fight a great war and create a new empire, and who imposed severe sacrifices on the German people even before the war started in 1939.”
“Opposite of Hitler? Seriously, man?! + any POTUS & friends ever left office as a poor man??? good god…
“Trump when he first took power in 2017 tried to work within existing structures, and with pretty traditional personnel. His leading cabinet officers came from the same kinds of backgrounds as his predecessors’, including elected Republican leaders, captains of industry, and high-ranking serving or retired military officers. It did not take him long to fire James Comey from the FBI, but he replaced him with Christopher Wray, a Justice Department veteran who has served until this day.”
Not a word of Russiagate and the other shit they pulled off.
Ahem.
With every new paragraph the author undermines his attempt of this completely unfounded comparison suggested in the headline.
The idea is to compare 1933 with 2025 on the grounds of how Hitler/Trump changed or tried to change the bureaucracies in their respective countries.
I don´t even know where to start …
only upside:
The author of above text is a Martin Broszat fan who I however haven´t read myself.
Broszat (1926-1989) was “controversial” because having been member of the NSDAP himself (a fact that became known in the early 2000s) and knowing realities back in the “dark days” he opinioned for a “normalisation” of historic scholarhip on the Third Reich.
Broszat got into a public fight over this with Saul Friedländer in the 1980s. Their letters on this were published in German by the Institut für Zeitgeschichte in Munich here:
https://www.ifz-muenchen.de/vfz-archiv/
(Broszat led the Institute in the 1970s)
Above archive of the institute´s quaterly is one of the best sources on history with free access in Germany.
The text with Boszat/Friedländer is contained in the downloadable pdf edition of 1988/2.
Holiday Pro Tip: Rely On ChatGPT AI At Your Thanksgiving Table To Ease Polarizing Arguments And Achieve A Peaceful Celebration
I think I’m going to stroke out.
That’s another way, but I wouldn’t recommend it.
(When you shake hands with an AI salesman, count your fingers afterward.)
“Ukraine war briefing: Kyiv pulls back 100,000 mortar rounds after failures”
Wouldn’t wanna be part of a Ukrainian mortar team at the moment-
https://x.com/censor_net/status/1859168609202737583
This happened about two years ago with mortar rounds falling short like seen here. I guess that as the war is coming to a close, that some Ukrainians business people want to cash in one last time by providing dodgy mortar rounds.
Russia rejects the possibility of freezing the frontline and insists on Ukraine’s capitulation – ISW,
no shit and a shoutout to BoJo.
re: More Nord Stream intrigue! Bud’s Offshore Energy
We’ve speculated about how Russia could possibly reach some kind of peace with the agreement incapable West, let alone a Nazi Ukraine, and the difficulties of a shared Dnieper, Desna, Donetsk Basin, etc. if a frozen war or DMZ, but I don’t think I’ve seen mention of resumption of flow in Nord Stream as a path to peace. And it seems like something Trump could implement.
The only thing Trump could implement is bombing the remaining pipe, to keep ze Germans from getting any ideas.
re: The U.S. Navy Can’t Build Ships FP
A wise leader would have quietly built up the capacity and infrastructure BEFORE picking a fight with (all of) his adversaries. Of course, in America there are no wise leaders.
Note to FOX: Dr. Jay Bhattacharya is not a physician. He has an MD from Stanford, yes. But he never completed internship and residency, so he never became a physician. And this means that if he passes himself off as a “doctor” in common parlance, he is violating the law in most jurisdictions. Based on his outdated CV that I looked at after the Great Barrington Declaration, he went straight from medical school to the Stanford Economics Department, where he obtained the PhD that has allowed him to scratch the itch that is Libertarianism. The two postnomials do give him leave to call himself “Doctor” in exactly the same sense as Dr. Jill Biden, so he has that going for him. Which is nice.
Anyway, mine is a small sample size, but Stanford seems to be good at graduating non-practicing MDs who go on to do significant things in other fields…
…like running PE medical divisions I’d wager.
In one case, yes, indeed. Makes a fortune moving fast and breaking things all across healthcare without any thought of what he leaves behind. No doubt the Development Office at Leland Stanford Junior University absolutely loves him!
And apologies for the CV link above. It leads directly to a pdf, for which I did not give warning.
For some definition of ‘significant’. And they don’t even have to be graduates. Maybe it’s time to check in on engineering school dropout Liz Holmes.
“Anger and distrust among displaced Israelis at ceasefire deal”
Just wait until some of those settlers start to trickle back. While Israel was bombing Lebanon, Hezbollah was doing the same for northern Israel and nearly 10,000 buildings have been damaged or destroyed there. Who is going to want to rebuild there? One woman in that article said-
‘From Kfar Giladi there are clear views of the Lebanese village of Odaisseh just across the valley. “The only thing I can hope for is that Hezbollah will not infiltrate these villages and build a new network,” Rona told me. “Apart from completely erasing these villages, and having no people there, there is no real physical thing that can make me feel safe. It’s just, you know, hope.” ‘
So I am guessing that the cease fire deal will not last as the Israelis will try to make sure that no people return to southern Lebanon, just so those settlers can feel “safe”. As far as the Israelis are concerned, any Lebanese villagers must be Hezbollah-
https://thecradle.co/articles/nearly-10000-buildings-destroyed-by-hezbollah-in-israels-north-report
Biden gets his phony cease-fire deal, at last. Too bad Antony Blinken was nowhere to be found. Winkin’ Stinkin’ Blinken apparently did not want his reputation stained anymore by this monstrosity.
My guess is that Thanksgiving leftovers will have a better shelf life than this fake deal.
With this cease-fire deal, Biden can now concentrate on what is really important to him. No, not the economy-
‘Biden Asks Congress To Authorize $24 Billion More To Spend on Ukraine’
https://news.antiwar.com/2024/11/26/biden-asks-congress-to-authorize-24-billion-more-to-spend-on-ukraine/
NY Times BURIES Study Exposing DEI Dangers!
Jimmy Dore Show 25 mins
A recent study exposing the failures of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) programs was buried by mainstream media outlets. The New York Times and Bloomberg opted not to publish stories on the research, however, suggesting a coordinated campaign to protect DEI from criticism.
Jimmy discusses the various harms described in the study from DEI initiatives and how little scrutiny these programs receive.
https://youtu.be/LfvHb8ypJM4?si=ZuIHRnOMcdjq2qeN
The study found that DEI programs increase hostility towards others as well as inculcating authoritarian tendencies.
The USA 2025, Germany 1933 History Unfolding
The historian’s comments leave out one key difference between the US in 2025 and Germany in 1933: the Constitution of Germany’s Weimar Republic had Article 48, which allowed the Reich president, under certain circumstances, to take emergency measures without the prior consent of the Reichstag.
Article 48 was the basis for the Reichstag Fire Decree, an immediate response to the Reichstag fire. The Reichstag Fire Decree abolished most civil liberties, including the right to speak, assemble, protest, and due process, and the Nazis began a crackdown on their political enemies. Less than a month later the Enabling Act of 1933 was passed, giving the German cabinet, really, the German chancellor, the power to make and enforce laws without the involvement of the Reichstag. The Reichstag Fire Decree and the Enabling Act, in effect, turned Germany into a dictatorship. The US has nothing like Article 48 in its Constitution.
But the US does have The Patriot Act that was forced down the throats of the populace and recalcitrant politicians by actors of The Deep State post 9/11.
Alright, I will say it,
Anyone who knows how these tariffs will work when they go live and still wants them is probably angling to capture assets and revenue streams DOMESTICALLY, not from new production but from the lower/middle class Americans who will have to sell most of what they own to deal with the economic turmoil. Stocks, bonds, homes, land, etc… will be sold just to keep their heads above water while the rentiers you all know and love will buy it all.
Like a lot of this type of proposal that gets announced at the end of big international conferences, it really isn’t a serious project. There has been a long time project discussed between Peru, Brazil and China for a cross-South American line. Its been costed at $72 billion (and this is likely a huge underestimate). There are any number of better ways to invest this money in South America.
If the current project was serious, they would not have built the port at Chancay – this is almost literally the worst possible place to put the port if you want to link to the Atlantic by rail. You would need a brand new line going over some of the most difficult terrain on earth, and it would bypass Bolivia, where most of the resources everyone is interested in is inconveniently located.
There actually is a potential cross-South American line that could be built by re-opening older lines and using existing lines with just a few new sections. It would run from the Peru-Chile border using the existing line to La Paz and a line to Villazon on the Argentinian border (this conveniently runs close to the main lithium deposits south of La Paz). Then it could connect to existing lines to Buenos Aires and Montevideo. Argentina has the only really viable railway goods network in South America It could be built for a tiny fraction of the cost of the Peru-Brazil line proposed. When the simple sensible option is being ignored in favour of the one that pulls headlines, you know this is just a unicorn proposal.
Working link for “The U.S. Navy Can’t Build Ships” article at-
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/17/us-navy-ships-shipbuilding-fleet-china-naval-race-pacific/
If they are interested, I know where they can pick up two new aircraft carriers going cheap. Some repair work needed. The only good thing about this article is that it shows that the US can’t get into a shooting war with China until they can get their ship-building program in order. So maybe by 2050?
Thank you, Rev.
Is that buy one and get one free?
There are two landing ships going, too.
I hope the broker fee is good.
Thank you, Colonel. The thought occurred to me that it is just as well that Boris the Clown is not still Prime Minister. Otherwise he might get the bright idea to have the Royal Navy re-designated as a US Navy flotilla. Think of the cost savings he would say.
L’Orient-Le Jour published last night what it says is the actual text of the ceasefire agreement, in thirteen points. I haven’t seen an official English language source yet, but the LOLJ story has a link to an English translation.
https://www.lorientlejour.com/article/1437070/lorient-le-jour-revele-les-13-points-de-laccord-de-cessez-le-feu-entre-le-liban-et-israel.html
The key to understanding an agreement of this kind is that if the political will exists, then the exact detail is irrelevant, because the agreement will be made to work, and violations excused so long as it is in everyone’s interest to keep it going. If there is no underlying agreement, then it won’t work anyway, no matter how detailed and comprehensive it is.
Here, I think we can see that there is something in a ceasefire for all parties. This is a completely unnecessary war, and neither Hezbollah nor Israel has anything to gain from continuing it. Neither can “win,” not least because it’s not clear what “winning” means, but neither can afford to stop unilaterally for political reasons.
For Israel, this represents a chance to withdraw and rest its troops, concentrate on Gaza and reassure public opinion that the attacks on Israel will cease. For Hezbollah also, there is a chance to rebuild its structures and consider where it goes from here, as well as recovering its somewhat battered reputation with the Lebanese people. Assuming that Iran gave the green light, which it must have done, then it would also reduce the threat of a war with Israel which Iran doesn’t want. Everybody gets to claim victory: the Israelis say they have forced Hezbollah away from the border, Hezbollah says it has ejected the Israelis once more, Lebanon breathes a sigh of relief and the US gets a diplomatic victory.
In reality, I think the reasonable best scenario would be a return to a pre-October 23 situation, with perhaps scattered clashes between Israel and Hezbollah. There would be a greater role for the LAF in the South (they already have one Brigade there, if I remember correctly) and at least some Hezbollah weapons would be withdrawn North. But it’s worth recalling that many Hezbollah fighters live near the border and keep their weapons at home, so “withdrawal” is a very flexible concept. In a sense, all the agreement does is to get us back to the status quo ante, but in Lebanon, where the situation has got steadily worse in recent years, that in itself is something. Overall, the Lebanese problem has no solution: the best that can be hoped for is that it is successfully managed.
The key will be Hezbollah, which has suffered a lot of damage, and has now, apparently, promised to end its attacks. We can assume that Iran has been leaning on them pretty hard. For what it’s worth, today’s Al-Ahkbar, the effective voice of Hezbollah, is claiming “victory” on the basis that the final agreement was based on UNSCR 1701, as opposed to the earlier UNSCR 1559, which called on the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah, although both the Israelis and the Americans had wanted a 1559-style forcible disarmament. Thus, says the newspaper, the heroism of the Resistance avoided such a solution. We’ll probably never know if this is true, but if it enables Hezbollah to ho ahead with its side of the agreement so much the better.
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1861695221832298610
Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand
This has largely been ignored but it’s actually a huge deal.
China’s robot density in manufacturing – one of the best metrics for measuring industrial advancement – has now surpassed almost all advanced economies.
For instance we often think of Taiwan as being on the cutting edge of advanced manufacturing with the mainland comparatively backwards but it’s now actually the other way around: robot density in mainland China ( 470) is now 60% higher than Taiwan’s ( 294).
China is also ahead of countries like Germany, Japan and of course the United States which has a robot density 40% lower. This means that China has not only closed the technological gap, it’s actually inverted it. And it’s all the more true when you look at recent innovation and scientific metrics that show China ahead in most of the important fields of the future.
More importantly China managed to do this at scale: the only two countries ahead of it are South Korea and Singapore but this is because their manufacturing sectors are extremely tiny compared with China, basically the size of an average Chinese city or maybe a small province in the case of South Korea. Doing it for a country the size of China – with a population twice larger than the US and the EU combined – is something else entirely.
Why does this matter? Because it fundamentally changes the narrative about competing with Chinese manufacturing. The West long assumed that automation and technological superiority would level the playing field against China’s traditional advantages. That window has closed. China now combines cutting-edge automation with massive scale – and keeps improving at breakneck speed (their current robot density is double what it was just 4 years ago).
Probably the best historical parallel for this moment is Europe’s Industrial Revolution, when some countries suddenly achieved manufacturing capabilities that no one else in the world could match. But China’s advantage is even more comprehensive today given its scale, internal supply chains and market size (though today’s interconnected global economy obviously means this manifests differently than back then).
The implications are profound: reshoring manufacturing through technological superiority is no longer realistic, except maybe in a handful of sectors. This explains the West’s shift toward tariffs and “overcapacity” narratives – they’re trying to artificially level a playing field they can no longer compete on directly.
This however doesn’t address the fundamental reality: you can build walls, cope or be in denial all you want, you’ll still have a China that’s succeeded at becoming completely dominant in manufacturing.
The West therefore now faces a critical choice: either find ways to constructively engage with and learn from China’s manufacturing capabilities, or risk repeating historical mistakes of isolation and parallel system building that proved disastrous for powers like the Qing dynasty and Soviet Union. The future likely belongs to those who can best integrate with and complement China’s manufacturing ecosystem while developing their own unique strengths in specialized sectors and emerging technologies…
3:55 AM · Nov 27, 2024
“How the Ancient Sumerians Created the World’s First Writing System”
This is a really good article this. In some ways you can say that the Sumerians were inventing civilization as they were going along as they had no real precedents to follow. I would disagree with the following bit though-
’They could not read or write, for there was no writing. Without writing, there was no history.’
Early civilizations had people with trained memories that passed history along verbally and it happens in primitive society. So many of the first stories were actually ones that had been written down from oral history.