Links 11/7/2024

The Journey of a Sea Bean: In Praise of the Ocean’s Smallest Gifts Literary Hub

The Argonaut Octopus Has Mastered The Free Ride Defector

Trump’s fat tails FT

Climate

Cop16: the world’s largest meeting to save nature has ended with no clear path ahead The Conversation

A pivotal year for global renewable energy transition: navigating the opportunities S&P Global

Sea ice alert Arctic News

Amazon deforestation drops to nine-year low, says Brazil France24

Water

Will Lake Powell become Lake Mud? Inside the growing sediment crisis Deseret News

Syndemics

Preprint: Emergence of a Novel Reassortant Clade 2.3.2.1c Avian Influenza A/H5N1 Virus Associated with Human Cases in Cambodia Avian Flu Diary

China?

China’s Xi calls for ‘stable’ US ties in message to Trump Channel News Asia

Chinese premier pledges broader opening-up for foreign-funded firms CGTN

India

US elections and their impact on Indian equities BNE Intellinews

Germany’s Pivot to India The Diplomat

Apple to build hostel facilities for 100,000 women workers across India (excerpt) Business Standard

Trash troubles: How India can deal with its staggering amount of plastic waste Channel News Asia

Syraqistan

We are witnessing the final stage of genocide in Gaza Guardian

Israel, Blackmail & the Presidents Consortium News

The Rewards and Risks of Islamic Finance JSTOR Daily

European Disunion

Europe’s winter gas supplies at risk from market disruptions FT

New Not-So-Cold War

Total of 148 clashes on battlefield in Ukraine over past day: Pokrovsk and Kurakhove fronts remain hottest Ukrainska Pravda

* * *

Ukraine War well beyond Trump-Harris election Responsible Statecraft. The deck: “Experts: Kyiv is losing no matter who takes the White House. The question is, who will end it before time runs out?”

Even Donald Trump Can’t Afford to Lose the Ukraine War Foreign Policy

Trump advised to freeze war in Ukraine, but has yet to make decision – WSJ and Republican senator says war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate and must be ended Ukrainska Pravda. Rubio.

Biden ‘rushing’ billions in aid to Ukraine as Trump win fuels uncertainty Al Jazeera

* * *

South Korea ‘not ruling out’ sending weapons directly to Ukraine France24

Ukraine – North Korean Soldiers Are “Disguised As Buryats” Moon of Alabama. Big if true:

* * *

Mystery of a 2nd Sabotage Team (Google translate) Bild. The deck: “Too small! Too wobbly! Diving experts are certain: The 15-meter yacht “Andromeda” could not possibly have been the base for the massive Nord Stream sabotage.”

The New Great Game

Daily protests, repeat elections: what’s opposition’s plan in Georgia? JAM News

Georgia’s opposition announces daily protests as part of campaign of ‘resistance’ BNE Intellinews

2024

Election Aftermath: Notes on the ‘Grand Realignment’ Simplicius the Thinker

Bernie Sanders slams Democratic Party’s ‘disastrous’ campaign strategy following Harris’ loss Anadolu Strategy

Transcript of WION interview, 6 November 2024 Gilbert Doctorow

Against Hyping Civil War and Mass Violence RAND

Voted in America? This Site Doxed You 404 Media

* * *

Ranked Choice Voting Initiatives Massively Fail Reason

The Game Theory of Democracy NYT

Trump Transition

Election 2024: The sun rises on Trump’s resurgent MAGA era Axios

* * *

Trump is Eyeing Iran Hawk Brian Hook as First Foreign Policy Pick Dropsite

Billionaire hedge fund manager lines himself up for Treasury secretary role FT

* * *

The view from countries where Trump’s win really matters BBC

EU has wish list for Trump, but support for his tough China agenda will be expected South China Morning Post

* * *

The US is about to make a sharp turn on climate policy MIT Technology Review

SEC Crypto Enforcement Slated for Major Rollback Under Trump Bloomberg

RFK Jr. says he won’t ‘take away anybody’s vaccines’ after Trump win The Hill.

Trump likely to uphold CHIPS Act despite his campaign rhetoric, experts say CNBC

Realignment and Legitimacy

US court reluctant to blow up Boy Scouts’ $2.46 billion sex abuse settlement Reuters

Fascism, from The Theory of Capitalist Development Paul Sweezy, MR Online (1942).

The Final Frontier

World’s 1st wooden satellite arrives at ISS for key orbital test Space.com

Digital Watch

Australia plans social media ban for under-16s BBC

Thousands of election gamblers anticipate betting jackpot after Trump win Reuters

Feral Hog Watch

Islands of the Feral Pigs Hakai Daily

Guillotine Watch

Why posh people don’t toilet train their pets: As rows over ‘deep pee stains’ and ‘pungent odours’ end up in court, expert reveals what’s behind a lax attitude to housebreaking Daily Mail

Class Warfare

Boeing Machinists End 53-Day Strike with 38 Percent Raise Labor Notes

Dozens of New York Times tech workers cross the picket line on Election Day Business Insider

Why even progressive US voters are America Firsters Middle East Eye

The Pleasure of Being Left Alone The Marginalian

Antidote du jour (Chuck Homler / FocusOnWildlife.Me ):

Bonus antidote:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

69 comments

  1. Antifa

    WORKING BRAIN
    (melody borrowed from Morning Train (Nine to Five)  by Florie Palmer, as performed by Sheena Easton)

    We all had plenty warnin’ now look where it has led
    Harder times are dawnin’ you hear what I said?
    Wars waged hell for leather a lot of people die
    Wars to make things better—but that is just a lie
    Those young soldiers look spiffy and happy to go fight
    Though their future’s iffy they lock and load alright
    I try to know just why, Lord above
    Young men rush to die—and for what?

    Old Donald lacks a working brain, his handlers view him with disdain
    He’s boorish, vulgar, and mundane, he’ll find this job’s still boring
    Old Donald lacks a working brain, he’ll soon see there’s a lot to gain
    Sit back and play the Deep State game—let deficits go soaring!

    His one and only duty is to do what money wants
    Keep our wars advancing and be nonchalant
    Be careful with his grifting, and delight
    In graveyard whistling all the day and night

    Old Donald lacks a working brain, his handlers view him with disdain
    He’s boorish, vulgar, and mundane, he’ll find this job’s still boring

    This world may sink or swim, he will profit handsomely
    Things may be lookin’ grim—profits are all we see (profits all we see)
    Presidents with no brains never ever get it right
    Grabs his perks and private pay, tell the voters you’ll fight

    Old Donald lacks a working brain, his handlers view him with disdain
    He’s boorish, vulgar, and mundane, he’ll find this job’s still boring
    Old Donald lacks a working brain, he’ll soon see there’s a lot to gain
    Sit back and play the Deep State game—let deficits go soaring!

    Old Donald lacks a working brain, his handlers view him with disdain
    He’s boorish, vulgar, and mundane, he’ll find this job’s still boring
    Old Donald lacks a working brain, he’ll soon see there’s a lot to gain

    Reply
    1. ChrisFromGA

      I watched part of Old Donald’s “victory speech” and it was quite bizarre. Old Donald sounds more like my crazy Uncle at the Thanksgiving dinner table after a blowout meal, regaling us with tales of past glories.

      A long, rambling riff on various random topics, including Musk, RFK Jr, and giving thanks to a lot of folks. He would bring others up to the mic to talk, including one random lady who looked like she was lost.

      It’s going to be a fun ride for the next 4 years – buckle up.

      Reply
      1. NotTimothyGeithner

        4 years? There is a reason people retire in their 60s. The problems from the trail and the first administration are all there except four years on.

        He looked normal for him at McDonald’s, but otherwise he looks like a lumbering old guy who is supposed to switch to working full time where he has to make decisions. His mother had severe osteoporosis at this age. Trump is a noted over eateries routinely golfs. With the sitting about to come, the Jabba comparisons will be everywhere.

        Then there is the lifestyle swing that is occurring right now. “Musk or Vance: who is in charge?” will be here soon.

        Bill Clinton’s lecturing comes to mind. He’s not even working, and he clearly can’t handle it when he used to be the I feel your pain guy.

        Reply
  2. Colonel Smithers

    Thank you, Lambert.

    The only good thing Rachman has ever said is nyet after interviewing George Osborne for a job at the FT. Ossie, who was christened Gideon, but changed that to George in his teens*, had the last laugh, though. *Having decided on a career in (Tory) politics and needing to hide his Jewish origins.

    Reply
  3. The Rev Kev

    ‘Gideon Rachman
    @gideonrachman
    A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.’

    This is the chief foreign affairs commentator for the Financial Times saying this. Just either making it up or spreading rumours. I believe I know the source of this story. An article came out a few months ago of how there was this totally isolated tribe in South America that got access to the internet and spent the whole time downloading pron. So somebody took this story, combined it with how little North Koreans can access the internet and voila – bs pie. Still waiting for proof of North Koreans in the Ukraine.

    Reply
    1. Watt4Bob

      Back in the 60’s there was a rumor spread by John Birch Society that UN sponsored Mongolian bare-foot soldiers were deployed on American soil in the south west.

      If you ask me, all these stories about North Korean forces have the same sort of odor.

      Reply
    2. Milton

      Who needs proof when the facts have been set by the narrative creators. Trying to explain that there isn’t a shred of evidence to a team blue member only elicits that dreaded PMC stare.

      Reply
    3. Ignacio

      If, as b at MoA says, the objective is to drag NATO troops to Ukraine something more than an idiotic tweet from “reliable sources” will be needed. The chief foreign affairs commentator on FT falling to such low commenting levels is itself noticeable.

      Reply
  4. Not Again

    Hey,
    Remember when they tried to tell us that Joe Biden was the “new FDR”?
    It turns out he was just the new Benjamin Harrison.

    Reply
    1. Samuel Conner

      John Hollander’s delightful double dactyl has come to mind in recent months (from, forgive me, Wikipedia):

      Higgledy piggledy,
      Benjamin Harrison,
      Twenty-third president
      Was, and, as such,

      Served between Clevelands and
      Save for this trivial
      Idiosyncrasy,
      Didn’t do much.

      Reply
      1. Antifa

        Donald has history:
        Tariffs and travesties
        Covid and miseries
        Landed on us

        Now he’s in charge again
        Already weighing in
        World’s smallest violin
        Concert can start

        Reply
  5. Steve H.

    > Sea ice alert Arctic News
    >> It is worrying for slow growth to occur during La Niña conditions in 2024.
    >> On November 3, 2024, global sea ice extent was 23.15 million km², a record low for the time of year and well below the 2023 extent at this time of year.

    Daily Surface Air Temperatures are up a fifth of a degree C’ from the previous record, last year. Sea Surface Temperatures are tracking last years values instead of dropping down to previous years. Models didn’t predict it and I didn’t expect it.

    Hurricane Raphael is the third hurricane to pop out of the Central American Gyre this year, entirely unprecedented. The previous two blew up to Cat 5. While Raphael is modeled to settle down in the middle of the Gulf, there’s warmth in the oven yet. Conditions aren’t great for a blow-up, but Janet and I have too many memories of storms expanding to fill the Gulf to be sanguine. Keep a weather eye out.

    Reply
  6. flora

    File under 2024 or T: I left this late last night on WC. I’m leaving it again because it’s the best thing I’ve read explaining the T win. Americans vote their pocketbook. The Dems refused to acknowledge anything is wrong on Main Street. Sounds right to me. In my nearly solidly blue uni town voting was way down this year according to published local stats.

    From Jacobin magazine:

    Democratic Party Elites Brought Us This Disaster

    https://jacobin.com/2024/11/election-harris-trump-democrats-strategy

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      Would you believe that on the night of the election there were political pundits on TV saying that they could not understand why Trump had so much success with common people as after all, the economy was going so great and business was booming. I think that they actually believed it.

      Reply
      1. Pat

        They still believe it. They have spent so many years getting to where they are by doing exactly this, which is only seeing what they have been told to see by their “betters” and it was going so well. It has to be the truth. And for some of them it really is true, their investments are going well, their house is worth double what they paid for it, and organic food is everywhere, not to mention that they have job opportunities everywhere.

        Reply
      2. jm

        Of course they believe it. How can the system be broken when I am prospering within it?

        In other news, the 2024 Upton Sinclair Award for Blinkered Thinking in News Commentary has been canceled due to the 1,000-way tie for winner.

        Reply
    2. Zagonostra

      From linked Jacobin article:

      Hanging over it all was the festering political sore that was Democratic support for Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Given the perfect chance to reset from an issue that had demoralized the party’s base, threatened its chances in Michigan, and thrust the world into roiling chaos, Harris chose to squander it, loyally lining up behind the despicable and unpopular blank-check policy of the man the party had just ousted as unfi

      Curious how Jacobin has been covering Genocide in Gaza, I stopped reading them when they went whole hog into CV19 Vax Mandate.

      Reply
  7. Zagonostra

    >Bernie Sanders slams Democratic Party’s ‘disastrous’ campaign strategy following Harris’ loss Anadolu Strategy

    “Will the big money interests and well-paid consultants who control the Democratic Party learn any real lessons from this disastrous campaign? Probably not,” he said.

    Will he “learn any real lessons” from his betrayal to his supporters? The easiest thing to lose and hardest to regain is one’s trust. He is a spent used up politician, a debased coin, that carries no value for me. A recent event that he held with AOC brought out a couple of hundred supporters. In years gone by he could fill a stadium, I know I attended and financially contributed to both his campaigns, I feel he acted as a Judas goat.

    If I’m not mistaken the final scene and final circle of hell in Dante’s inferno describes a Satan with three heads, in the mouth of one of them is Judas, the second Brutus, and the third, I forgot…

    Reply
    1. .Tom

      Saint Bernard of the Green Mountains with his extraordinary insight, courage, and integrity tells us the glaringly fambloging obvious the day after the election. Helpful. Real helpful.

      His easy capitation to Biden’s right-wing authority was central to exterminating the left-populist agenda. Now he comes to scold the party. Not exactly a lesson in courage.

      Reply
    2. Carolinian

      I believe it was Stoller who said the reason Bernie wouldn’t take on Biden was that when Bernie became senator Biden was nice to him. “To think outside the box you have to be outside the box” (quoting myself). The fence straddling Sanders wants to be a middle class revolutionary.

      Which is the problem with the Democrats in general. No callouses on their hands. They are big on virtue signalling while enjoying all those Republican and–irony–Trump tax cuts.

      Meanwhile an article on Trump’s intentions yesterday seemed all bad on the domestic front and uncertain on the foreign. Won’t tariffs with no domestic industries to replace merely fuel the inflation he was supposed to fight? The public have delivered their ballot box rebuke to the elites. When will we ever have a political movement that will do more than that?

      Reply
      1. Samuel Conner

        > to replace merely fuel the inflation he was supposed to fight?

        Higher prices with no increase in wages and reduced product availability sounds like a recipe for “reduced consumption”.

        Maybe it’s a surreptitious de-growth strategy.

        /s

        Reply
  8. Psyched

    RE: Bernie Sanders slams Democratic Party’s ‘disastrous’ campaign strategy following Harris’ loss

    Wait, what??? The same Bernie who kept his mouth shut like a good little boy during the whole Biden, then Harris, campaign? The same Bernie who endorsed Harris and called her a “progressive”?

    Hey Bernie, you were part of that disastrous campaign!

    Just wondering what Mossad has on Bernie because none of this makes sense. They is not a signle brave soul in the Democratic Party.

    Reply
    1. .Tom

      He’s not even in the Democratic Party. It’s possible someone can blackmail him but maybe he just wants to not suffer the social indignities that Nader had to put up with. Maybe he’s just that kind of coward. It wouldn’t be surprising or any better morally.

      Reply
    2. Steve H.

      Lena from yesterday: He is not perfect, not the messiah we might have wanted him to be, but in the main, I thank him for the work he has done.

      There is NOT ONE POLITICIAN who has done as much to show our younger adults how to ORGANIZE for political change. They shanked him not once but TWICE. They barred his supporters from the building. He is the ONLY national politician to prove an alternate route than MAGA for a major change.

      Both Hersh and Taibbi have mentioned They will threaten your family. I read (unconfirmed) his wife was threatened. Despite that, he laid the road for a third party, and potholes don’t get filled until they’re already there.

      Before trashing what he’s done, show me the alternative. To whom does he compare?

      Reply
      1. Psyched

        “Both Hersh and Taibbi have mentioned They will threaten your family. I read (unconfirmed) his wife was threatened. ”

        We need leaders who, when threatened (like being shot at), will raise a first in the air yelling FIGHT, and not shrink away and endorse the Corporate Tools.

        Sanders does not show what it means to truly sacrifice oneself, and that is what he is failing to show younger adults.

        And you want an example of another leader doing way more than Sanders take a look at Kshama Sawant:

        https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/do-not-vote-for-those-who-support

        Reply
      2. .Tom

        I don’t agree. All he did was say politically popular things, which is easy. Even Trump could manage that. Political organization for results requires being ready to take your faction to a third party and be a spoiler. Only that threat, and it must be real, gives you any leverage. And you have to accept the consequences of causing the Republicans to win by splitting the vote and being a pariah. Sanders did none of this. He confirmed for the younger generation that party discipline is unassailable.

        Reply
      3. divadab

        Bernie’s wife was President of Goddard College in VT, a progressive institution, which ran into financial difficulties. Much hay* was made by personalizing these problems and blaming Jane Sanders – I imagine that if threats were made, they involved federal investigations and charges which would distract, destroy, and impoverish the Sanders. SO I agree, it does appear that the gangsters who run the Dem party went after Bernie by attacking his wife. He certainly has been toeing the line since!

        * if you want more detail, the vermont digger is an excellent source.

        Reply
      4. jhallc

        “There is NOT ONE POLITICIAN who has done as much to show our younger adults how to ORGANIZE for political change. They shanked him not once but TWICE. ”

        I worked the GOTV in 2016 for Sanders and donated money both times he ran. When he got the shaft and rolled over instead of taking a stand by going third party in 2020 I knew he was not going to be the one to change things. I think he was worried about his reputation and afraid of being labeled a “Nader” by allowing Trump to win in 2020. Well here we are…

        Reply
  9. The Rev Kev

    “Trump advised to freeze war in Ukraine, but has yet to make decision – WSJ”

    There are so many stupid suggestions by Neocons and the like and I wonder if Trump can tell when somebody is trying to bs him. Why would Russia agree to let the Ukraine join NATO in 20 years? That only guarantees a new war when a new generation of Ukrainians has grown up – which is why the 20 year delay. And they are already saying that in the meantime they would arm the Ukraine to the hilt. And why would Russia just take the West’s word on any agreement at all as they never keep any agreements? Freezing the conflict solves nothing for Russia so will be refused. A DMZ won’t work either as whose troops will patrol it? Trump say the Europeans but Russia has zero trust in them as they are a party to this war. You think that Trump would accept Chinese troops? Maybe even North Korean troops? Trump says that he will force Russia to negotiate or else he will sanction them. Realistically, what else is there left to sanction? He might offer sanction relief but what would be the point if they could be snapped back at a time of Washington’s convenience like they did with Iran? And Pompeo is pushing for a deal that doesn’t appear to give a major win to Moscow. Good luck with that one, pal.

    Reply
    1. ChrisFromGA

      Rut-roh, Shaggy. The worm-tongued neo-con Trump whisperers are gathering.

      Russia’s best bet is to create some “facts on the ground” before Jan. 21.

      You know, like rolling up to the Dnipr.

      Reply
    2. .Tom

      I wonder if Trump stands a chance of gaining accurate information about the state of the war. He can’t make informed choices without it. The word “freeze” in the headline suggests that AFU can defend existing lines.

      Reply
    3. Louis Fyne

      If Trumps appoints Tulsi Gabbard as SecDef or SecState, then I know that he really learned from his near-death experience.

      Pompeo II = Trump still stinks as a HR decider

      Reply
    4. Acacia

      WSJ wants to believe the POTUS gets to decide on freezing the war.

      Hasn’t that ship sailed?

      Seems like the Russians will settle it on their terms, and there’s really not much Trump or NATO can do about that.

      Of course, US-NATO can escalate… and watch European capitals start getting hit with hypersonic missiles.

      Reply
  10. Es s Ce Tera

    re: Israel, Blackmail & the Presidents Consortium News

    I really appreciate Sam Husseini doing much of the legwork connecting the dots for something I had suspected, that Epstein was at least spook adjacent. My angle had been that nobody has so many wildly different and wildly successful financial specializations in such a short timeframe without outside help, and some of those specilizations (recovering embezzled funds internationally) would have needed state-level intervention. This piece adds a whole other dimension I hadn’t even considered.

    Reply
  11. hemeantwell

    Would someone please comment on Simplicius’ “proof” that the 2020 election was stolen? I usually ignore what he says about domestic politics, but it’s doozy time, roughly 12 M excess Dem votes, using Obama as a baseline:

    here are the Democrat total vote count figures for the last six elections:

    2004 Kerry – 59M

    2008 Obama – 69.5M

    2012 Obama – 65.9M

    2016 Clinton – 65.9M

    2020 Biden – 81.3M

    2024 Harris – 66.4M

    Notice anything?

    Reply
    1. NotTimothyGeithner

      Population growth and turnout in safe states. It’s actually not that complicated. Campaigns and platforms matter. Canceling student debt is more likely to motivate non voters than Hillary is your abuela.

      Millennials were a large population unlike gen x, and the Population that was under 25 in 2008 would represent nearly all of them.

      When you consider Obama in 2008 was a turnout not a persuasion campaign, it’s a growth of 11.5 million in 12 years when the the voting age population grew by double that change. So not particularly complicated.

      Reply
    2. Zagonostra

      I’ve seen this making its rounds on my Twitter feed and took a snap shot and filed under “vereee interesting.”

      Reply
    3. NotTimothyGeithner

      But I did notice 6 data points separated by four year cycles with little if any context, polling, population, opponent totals, ages of the electorate, and the impact of the electoral college.

      Then you look at the Senate maps and house gerrymandering in house districts.

      Reply
    4. Not Again

      I notice that they mailed ballots to almost everyone who was registered to vote in 2020.
      That tells me that there seems to be a big impediment to voting, especially on election day.
      What did you learn?

      Reply
    5. raspberry jam

      in 2020 a lot of (most? maybe all?) states – even the deepest red ones – allowed for mail-in ballots and in some states sent them to registered voters without the voters needing to request them. In states where mail-in is the standard (like Washington State), during election years, turnout is usually in the 85%+ range. In states where mail-in was only widespread in 2020, like Texas, the turnout normally is only around 45% but jumped to 65%+ that year.

      (Caveat: I am not 100% certain how widespread mail-in ballots were in Texas in 2020 as I am not a voter there. I have in the past been a voter in Washington state and am familiar with their normal mail in voting process.)

      Reply
      1. marym

        Most states that expanded mail voting sent ballot applications, not ballots.

        This report only goes through 2022, so there may have been subsequent changes.

        “In January 2020, prior to COVID-19, five states used mostly-mail elections: Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington. In time for the November 2020 election, California, Nevada, Vermont and the District of Columbia temporarily joined this group and mailed ballots to all active voters. By November 2022, three states (California, Nevada and Vermont) and the District of Columbia had adopted mostly-mail elections as permanent policy.

        In January 2020, no states had policies to mail absentee/mail ballot applications to all registered voters…In time for the 2020 general election, 12 states (Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nebraska, New Mexico by county choice, Ohio, Rhode Island and Wisconsin) had temporarily changed their policies and mailed absentee/mail ballot applications to all registered voters. By November 2022, all states that had mailed absentee/mail ballot applications in 2020 had reverted to their previous policies of not automatically sending out absentee/mail ballot applications; the changes in 2020 were indeed temporary changes.”
        https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/the-evolution-of-absentee-mail-voting-laws-2020-through-2022

        Texas has very limited eligibility for mail voting. I recall reports of how difficult this made things for people in 2020, so I don’t think these eligibility requirements were expanded for that year, but that’s only a recollection.
        https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/voter/reqabbm.shtml

        Reply
      2. divadab

        “In states where mail-in is the standard (like Washington State), during election years, turnout is usually in the 85%+ range.”

        Nope. Not even close in WA. Turnout this cycle was 20 pts higher than in 2022 but still in the 60-70% range.

        Reply
    6. OnceWere

      According to Wikipedia 128.8M votes in 2016 represents a turnout of 60.1% and 155.5M votes in 2020 represents a turnout of 66.6%. There’s nothing inherently suspicious about a turnout of 66% – a level, by the way, that other Western countries routinely achieve – in an election where voting was made enormously more convenient by the easy availability of postal votes.

      Reply
    7. Louis Fyne

      honestly, Trump not being in office in 2021 saved his legacy and MAGA

      Trump would not have changed any of Biden’s fumbles (except maybe the afhganistan withdrawal).

      Inflation was in the system even before Biden’s IRA bill passed, the Fed had to reverse zero interest rates, Trump would be led by the DC establishment into a Ukraine war, and anti-Russia sanction driven inflation.

      In an alternate universe in which Trump won 2020, a generic wet-noodle Democrat (Newsom) would have run against Pence…and Pence would get mauled.

      Reply
      1. Carolinian

        “Trump would be led by the DC establishment into a Ukraine war, and anti-Russia sanction driven inflation.”

        I don’t think we know that. The Ukraine disaster was much more a Blinken/Sullivan/spawn of Albright result. Putin invaded because his interlocutors were “not agreement capable” whereas Trump fancies himself the big deal artist. The neocons around him were much more interested in going after Iran. Trump’s scorn for NATO makes him a more dubious Atlanticist.

        Reply
    8. Louis Fyne

      in addition to everyone’s comments… don-t forget in 2020, the Normie Voter just wanted a return to normalcy. Biden promised that

      Generic Old White Guy in charge, not an iconoclast. Normies reasonably had Trump fatigue. Normies still had faith in “The System”

      Reply
  12. southern appalachian

    “United States President Joe Biden plans to rush billions of dollars in security assistance to Ukraine before he leaves office in January, reports say, hoping to shore up the government in Kyiv before Donald Trump returns to the White House.“-
    “$2bn in funding for new weapons purchases.“

    Just a sigh from me. Places here ravaged by the hurricanes; people across the ocean dying from genocide. Weapons are such a sink.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      A report from RT says-

      ‘The White House intends to expedite up to $9 billion in new military aid in a last-ditch effort to arm Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January, according to sources in the outgoing administration.’

      https://www.rt.com/news/607256-biden-rush-ukraine-aid/

      Trump could cause a lot of damage to the Democrats by publishing exactly how much money has been sent to aid the Ukrainians, both officially and unofficially.

      Reply
    2. flora

      re: “people were ravaged by hurricanes”

      And left to their own devices or worse in their recovery efforts. I think that explains the North Carolina and Georgia vote this year. / my 2 cents

      See also eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania after the East Palestine, Ohio train wreck and toxic cloud release.

      Long serving Ohio Dem Senator Sherrod Brown lost his re-election race.

      Reply
      1. Carolinian

        NC and Georgia are similar in that both have urban islands surrounded by a much more conservative remainder. A Harris win in NC was never in the cards IMO. I believe the map shows that Asheville did go for Harris but all the surrounding areas did not.

        Reply
  13. Zagonostra

    >Even Donald Trump Can’t Afford to Lose the Ukraine War – FP

    Ideally, his plan should not involve Ukraine giving up territory that has been captured by Russia over the course of the war. Nor should it be based on empty promises from Russian President Vladimir Putin, which he has a history of making.

    “Can’t afford to Lose!?” What would “winning” look like? If ever there was a case of projection FP embodies it in the statement about “empty promises.” Who believes this tripe?

    Reply
      1. OnceWere

        Presumably they mean “recognize as part of Russia”. Part of the face-saving spin would be to insist that one day Ukraine will be able to reunite in the fashion of West and East Germany.

        Reply
        1. ChrisFromGA

          There is still some of Donetsk under nominal Ukrainian control. Luhansk is toast. Kherson is the most likely to end up in a split due to the geography. Looks like the Russians are launching a big Zaphorizhe offensive, so that’s likely gone by the time Trump is sworn in.

          Reply
        2. The Rev Kev

          You know, they were talking about that exactly just a few weeks ago. That a divided Ukraine would be reunited just like Germany was once. Of course part of that line is that eastern Ukraine would become part of NATO so when it reunited, all of it would be in Ukraine so the Ukraine would win then after all. Yeah, nah!

          Reply
          1. ChrisFromGA

            Part of the job for the neo-cons is going to be manufacturing a plausible narrative for how they really didn’t lose the war in Ukraine—so, keeping hope alive that someday down the road that territory will be re-united is definitely in the playbook.

            The problem is that we live in a physical world, and all that coal, steel plants, etc. will be resources for Russia, not Blackrock.

            Reply
  14. Zagonostra

    >Mystery of a 2nd Sabotage Team

    No mystery at all, nothing but pure mis/disinformation to give wiggle room to corrupt/bought/compromised German politicians.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      The really amazing thing is that this appeared in a German publication as they are much worse at truth telling than US publications. Mind you, it took over two years to find out what every professional diver knew – that it was more likely that the SS Minnow blew up NS2 than the yacht Andromeda but hey, better late than never.

      Reply
  15. John Beech

    Not to minimize the abuse suffered by some boys at the hands of adult Scouts, but it’s my opinion the settlement essentially destroying the organization and forcing it into bankruptcy threw the baby out with the bathwater. The better solution? Dunno above my pay grade, but a $2460-million dollar fine for a boys social organization seems over the top. What’s more, how do you possibly quantify who gets a $3500 payout versus a $2.7M payout?

    Honestly? The whole plan is crazy and does a disservice to everyone whilst trying to impose what can’t be fixed since money won’t erase the memory. And where were the parents? I have two scout age boys at home and I notice so many things about their actions and behaviors that I wonder how parents can possibly NOT notice a change in theirs kids, e.g. become withdrawn, reticent about talking about their experience . . . like nothing, nobody noticed a freaking a thing in the kids until decades later? And now with money on the table we have 82,000 victims? Bull.

    Reply
    1. Dermot O Connor

      “Not to minimize the abuse suffered by some boys”

      PROCEEDS TO MINIMIZE THE ABUSE SUFFERED BY SOME BOYS

      Reply
  16. ChrisFromGA

    Bomb Iran

    Sung to the tune of “Sharp Dressed Man” by ZZ Top

    No clean shirts
    War flu, the frontline isn’t where they’re going to
    Silk suit, F-35 (thirty five!)
    And they don’t need a reason why
    They come running just as fast as they can
    Cuz every neocon-crazy wants to bomb Iran

    Tomahawks, Boeing, heat-seeking missiles dont miss a single thing
    Liz Cheney, Lindsay Graham, when they “chimp out” we’ll all be eating spam
    They beat war drums just as hard as they can
    Cuz every neocon-crazy wants to bomb Iran

    [Guitar break]

    Top gun wannabes
    But dontcha worry; draft boards they’ll never see
    Switchblades, no doves
    Lookin’ sharp, killin’ for love
    They’re psycho killers with blood on their hands
    Cause every neo-con crazy ’bout a war with Iran!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wRHBLwpASw

    Reply
  17. ChrisRUEcon

    Just saw this (via X/Twitter)

    So it was Kamala’s brother-in-law, Tony West, who steered campaign messaging and outreach towards the whole awkward Mark Cuban and Silicon Valley squillionaire direction. I did find it odd that Harris would put out ads effectively saying that “Trump works for billionaires, but I’ll work for you” while the campaign was using Cuban as a mouthpiece. No wonder that message fell with a thud. Few believed her, and they were right.

    Reply

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