By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Welcome to the Naked Capitalism live blog for Election Day 2024. I’m not sure what I can say that has not already been said, so I will keep this short and sweet.
We have reason to believe that we can look forward to state restults in this order:
When Harris campaign expects to see results in key states. Per email I just got pic.twitter.com/dFdBc2DKtD
— Ayden 🎗️📟 (@AydenMakesMaps) November 3, 2024
Let’s go:
'Goodbyeee', the final episode of Blackadder Goes Forth, was originally broadcast on this day in 1989. pic.twitter.com/tErgpgny0p
— archivetvmusings (@archivetvmus71) November 2, 2024
For due diligence, I now issue the traditional injunction from the moderators to commmenters, old and new:
Let’s have a good clean fight here. No holding, no low punches, no biting, gouging, or rabbit punches. You’ll break when I say break. And if you’re decked, you’ll get a count of ten to get back on your feet.
In fact, I’ve been impressed and encouraged by the carefulness and compunction of the Naked Capitalism commentariat in the last few days. Kudos!
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And we’re off! Curious to see how many battleground states have delays in reporting…
Based on the AP News election news feed I’ve been watching today, I’d say several states. And it will be interesting to see how many of those states get “called” by the major news orgs despite the delays.
Maybe we could setup an informal betting pool — winner gets bragging rights for the next four years!
1) How many states have delays in reporting.
2) How many states are “called” by 12:00 AM eastern time.
3) The day/time when the winner is declared.
Anything else?
Halpern’s latest short video as of 6 pm CST. He says Republicans are texting him their predictions and all are 270 or higher but that no Democrats are sending him any predictions.
For those with WSJ access they have a “live” map here
https://www.wsj.com/election/2024/general/president
Already called IN, KY, and VT
Thanks. Freetard access works for me.
What is Freetard?
Slang for people who don’t want to pay for some online service (e.g., me lol).
Not a subscriber but obtained paywall free access.
The Associated Press also has a live map with no paywall.
Thanks for the AP map!
On the AP map, PA is light blue.Not sure what the methodology or data is.
So is NC.
If you hover your mouse over the state, you’ll get a little popup with the currently reported vote totals. I’m not sure how they’ve implemented this feature on a touch interface but I’m betting you’ll probably have to tap on the state to see the reported totals.
The al-jazeera page has actual numbers:
https://www.aljazeera.com/us-election-2024/results/
at the moment, PA is 70/30 leaning harris, with 11.5% votes reported in.
urban areas report before the sticks are counted, but that may be a somewhat larger-than-expected lead.
From the Associated Press:
yep – it’s early. still, would like to see that margin close soon.
thinking Trump might have been legitimately tipped off by an insider on the ground that the books were cooked in Philly. the quick rally, hours ago, of local authorities to say ‘nope, everything’s on the up and up’ seems a bit suspect. hope i’m wrong.
the population of the remaining uncounted counties in PA is around 400,000. how many vote, and which way do they vote. victory is still within grasp for Trump, but that margin, slimming now, still might be just a bit much to make up. under 100,000 behind as of this post.
imagine the fate of so many others’ lives around the world boiling down to a few voters in central Pennsylvania.
That scrolling sidebar to the left on the AP page is very useful.
Also live map on MarketWatch.
I’ve maybe complained before but they shouldn’t be reporting anything until everyone has voted. How lame.
No problem here, I’m watching Steamboat Bill and going to bed early. Have fun, but don’t have Too Much Fun,
I’d like to thank the NC crew for always being there when I need reminders that I might, possibly, not be the crazy one. I’d like to thank you specifically, Lambert, for your stalwart commitment to staying awake so very, very late on this hallowed evening.
I’ll second that – thanks to the crew and commentariat for the critical thinking over the years. It does help one maintain some sense of sanity when so many lap up the propaganda.
Today I had a friend who emailed me about voting after I’d already told them a week ago I would not be voting for Harris. In response I sent one of the Cthulu “why vote for the lesser of two evils/” memes thinking it might bring some levity. In response I was told that Harris was NOT (and it was capitalized) evil. I understand that different people make different calculations on how to cast their votes and that’s fine, but how an extremely bright person who has trodden the earth for many decades can look at what the Biden/Harris administration has done around the world, a depopulated Ukraine, shredded children in Gaza, and declare it NOT evil is beyond me. To me it quite clearly is, especially in the Hannah Arendt “banality of evil” sense, and quite possibly in the “I’m OK with killing lots of people” sense.
Thanks to Jonathan Holland Becnel and his comment on the LA Green party turning on its own for convincing me to go vote for Stein when I was contemplating sitting it out. We have ranked choice voting so I got to choose Stein, Brother Cornell, and whoever the libertarian is and leave the warmongers out.
Same boat. I know a number of highly intelligent people who are supporting Harris. Mostly liberal academics, so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, as the academic milieu exerts a lot of internal pressure to conform. Some of them will admit “well, yes, I’m voting for the lesser of two evils,” so then we can get into that discussion. But others seem to genuinely believe that Harris is a wonderful candidate and Trump supporters are basically all dangerous knuckle-dragging brownshirts in flyover bumphuc. One of them tried to vote shame me over supporting Stein.
The only way I can square this is propaganda, because most of these highly intelligent people also seem to also be on steady diets of NYT or MSM news. Ergo, I keep coming back to questions about media effects, Bernays, Lippmann, Adam Curtis, etc.
And this leads me back to the longstanding “media effects” debate, e.g., from Lasswell’s chain of communication, Wertham’s “Seduction of the Innocent”, Cantril’s study of mass panic (War of the Worlds), cultivation theory, agenda-setting (McComb), the ‘two-step flow’ theory, behaviorist media theories, Chomsky’s propaganda model, etc. etc.
It’s been years since I looked at this debate (and my recollection is that it has been considered inconclusive), but meanwhile we have seen the rise of TDS and the current crazy landscape you describe, so I can’t help but wonder if it’s really so inconclusive.
Finally, I would also like to extend thanks to the whole NC community for this outpost of rational and insightful discussion.
From my observations over the last so many years, propaganda works. This became especially clear during covid, and all the years of TDS. It drrms to work especially well with people who don’t think it works on them. They’re too smart to be swayed by media…
>>>They’re too smart to be swayed by media…
Especially true of those who work in the media, even if they are the victim of their own work, unfortunately
“most of these highly intelligent people also seem to also be on steady diets of NYT or MSM news”
You are what you eat.
Some old Greek, I forget whom, said that being truly educated was being able to take in that with which you disagree fully amd critically and form your own judgment. Not many truly educated among the highly intelligent, in this sense.
I just had a conversation with a local business-owning father-son duo about this; it may be that, at least for the purposes of civility, the as-long-as-youre-not-hurting-anyong (or any business) liberal values of commerce are a fine medium for political discussion.
Look at COVID. It’s casual evil.
Denunciations of Stein voters come in a few different flavors.
If you’re in a blue state, you can’t be denounced for losing the election by voting for Stein, because Harris will win anyway. But a surprising number of people do not understand that electoral votes will elect the winning candidate, and those are given on the basis of state, and not national, vote totals. Check to see if they understand this. Because I am an Oregon voter, I argue that we want to cut her margin to an alarmingly low level to scare the Dems into servicing left voters — I mean, fat chance, but By Any Means Necessary means by any means necessary, even voting.
Lots of criticism comes as a personal moral attack. Trump is bad, and you are bad because you’re helping him. I usually listen politely and ask them questions to help them fill out their indictment of Trump, and me. Then I tell them that they are looking at this as a purely moral decision, but that this is a political decision.
If you want to look at it in a moral way, I tell them, then let’s look at your choice to be complicit in genocide, because they are active supporters (and because many of them voted for Biden the Iraq war criminal, and Clinton the Syria war criminal, they are morally enemies of humanity and democracy — they will often be unaware of these facts, so you have a chance for a little political education). At this point you can tell them that you understand that they made a political calculation based on their own interests and on domestic issues. When they see that moralistic discourse puts them in a worse light than any Stein supporter, they are usually ready to talk about issues of their and other people’s interests, the power structure that gave us such terrible candidates and policies, and then some real dialog can happen.
The key is to force them off the simplistic moralism by showing them they aren’t looking too good themselves. One in a while they will actually say that genocide isn’t that important, and things get really interesting
Well, in a recent conversation with a long-time chum, now living on the east coast and exhibiting TDS symptoms, I brought up the # of wars Trump started vs. Biden/Harris. And mentioned the G word. She went ballistic. “This election is too important! That’s just one issue!”
Guess genocide isn’t that important.
You’ve established that your friend does not have the moral high ground at that point; her decision is the basis of a political calculation, not a pure moral position.
So what is more important than genocide for her? 7.3 million acts of genocide both already done and in prospect. Women. People Of Color. It is just one issue? How many issues does she have, and what are they? Why are hers more important than somebody else’s? Let’s see the calculations, compare, and maybe cut some deals.
Valid questions that were not welcomed by my pal. The evening devolved into uncomfortable pleasantries and we parted shortly thereafter. Oh, and she’s a grandmother but apparently as long as her granddaughter is safe and secure, all is right in the world. I have been deeply demoralized.
Can being owned by the fossil fuel industry make an elected official a participant in the ecocide of the planet? If it does, and I think it’s true, then nearly all the members of congress have made the political, and moral, decision, based on their own interests, that the destruction of human life falls well within their job description. Since voting in this economic system changes nothing, does it become a moral imperative to remove them through force?
Can being owned by the fossil fuel industry make an elected official a participant in the ecocide of the planet? If it does, and I think it’s true, then nearly all the members of congress have made the political, and moral, decision, based on their own interests, that the destruction of human life falls well within their job description. Since voting in this economic system changes nothing, does it become a moral imperative to remove them through force?
Fuck yeah, Lyman!
Im at an election watch party at this open air event space called the Broadside in New Orleans, and a democrat voter already brought up Stein being a Russian agent when I told them I voted Green Party.
I’m keeping my cool and very excited that Harris is prolly gonna lose.
I even have my Free Palestine 🇵🇸 scarf on, so everyone thinks I’m a Lib!
– Becnel Reporting Live from New Orleans
NC FN RULZ
Show the flag brother! What’s the mood on the street, and I don’t mean just Decatur Street. (Will there be a riot on Freret Street this time?)
Stay safe!
Hahaha they might riot uptown!!!!
Kidding! But seriously my liberal family members nerves are positively WRACKED right now!
I haven’t seen anyone crying, but a few frustrated Harris stans who are consoling themselves with some “RED MIRAGE” Mumbo Jumbo like this isn’t really happening!
Mood on Decatur is more pro Trump among the workers this election season. A lot of Black Service Industry people that I work with are voting Trump because he’s a gangster!
Anyways I just bought some street tacos from the booming food truck outside staffed with workers who barely speak English and I got the gut feeling they woulda voted Trump!
-Becnel OVER & OUT!
Yes, thanks everyone! NC has been one of very few places to get news and thoughtful analysis.
Plus, Lambert should consider retiring the current yellow waders to a position of honor – it’s been a hard couple of years for them!
We’re a downright gracious lot.
Cheers Lambert, thanks for hosting.
Hear hear!
A toast to our most gracious host! And the lady of the house, Yves.
An establishment that is clean even if the topics are sullied by those who are dirty…
And speaking of toasts and raising glasses: the votes are in from Harry’s Bar Paris at 01:45h (on CNEWS live): Harris-Walz 534 votes / Trump-Vance 568 votes
C’est tout pour l’instant…
Yes, a toast is in order. Thank you Lambert. Please pass the popcorn.
Absolutely agree–much appreciation to our hosts for tonight and for their efforts every day!
Ripping the bandage off and seeing who actually wins this cursed mantle will be a relief. Living my friends and family and their insufferable attitude towards either candidate won’t be a balm. If Trump wins, my entire neighborhood and extended family will lose their minds. If Kamala wins, I will be subjected to four years of how what’s happening in Gaza isn’t genocide.
I hope that when my kids are all old enough to vote they have better choices to vote for, and not against.
From Andrew Couts at Wired:
Wired also says the FBI is claiming that bomb threats at election locations around the country have been traced to “Russian email domains.”
…which tells me the FBI itself is involved in the bomb threats (adjusts tinfoil hat). /s
So glad I wasn’t the only one who went there immediately. The second thought being the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. /s
Gives CrowdStrike another meaning.
The FBI would do “bomb threats.” The DCCC would do actual bombs, through an outsourcing “partner” of course.
And they’d bomb their own so they could point at the designated culprits.
Um, the Israelis seem pretty busy right now.
The purpose of bomb threats to voting places in cities that tend to vote for Democrats is to suppress votes for Democrats. The people responsible for it are the people who benefit from it. Maybe that’s the Democrats if they want to lose the election (they do prefer to whine about why they can’t govern), or they want an excuse to go to war with Russia. However, it’s also possible that non-Russian non-Democrats who want the Democrats to lose elections are responsible for voter suppression and election worker harassment efforts directed toward that end.
> Wired also says the FBI is claiming that bomb threats at election locations around the country have been traced to “Russian email domains.”
Totes, exactly like Ohio 2004, modulo those dastardly Russkis.
Curious to see the Iowa results as they start coming in! That Selzer poll (Des Moines Register link here) upended everything I thought about how the Midwest would go. She (Ms. Selzer) has had a few misses, but she’s been right on the big stuff. I think it’s the knock-on effects that are most interesting…if Iowa is competitive, does that mean the other midwestern states are or lean democrat? Let’s see!
Watched a bit of Alexander Mercouris and he mentioned the Selzer poll and he thought it odd that such a small sampling in such a small state might have made a difference in the possible uptick for Harris. I always wonder if Obama is a pal of Liz? But maybe that’s just me.
Yeah, I agree that it’s wild that one poll could swing the whole projection. But, she’s earned the rep FWIW.
If Kamala’s presidency rests on carrying Iowa, we need to get to those betting sites asap.
On one of the cross-tabs, 67% of the respondents said that “saving democracy” was the impetus for their vote. Poor Ann Seltzer, going out on a whiff. She must have only polled former Buttigieg caucasers.
Mark Halperin challenged her on the crosstabs to this poll in an interview. She oversampled older women who vote 2-1 for Kamala and undersampled Rs. She hemmed and hawed.
Yes – the article/poll appeared suspect/corrupt on publication.
In her defense, overpolling certain (usually low n, but “interesting” for various reasons) demographics and adjusting weights based in expected turnout is increasingly a standard practice–especially since a lot of people are beyond reach in reasonable numbers. This, in turn, is why polls really aren’t science–you fill in a lot of stuff on, what is, at best, educated guesses. Selzer is known to adjust the weights a bit more “creatively” than most, but her local knowledge and past reputation has given her leeway in that dimension. But if she blew it this time, then her rep is probably toast.
It is indeed looking like a clunker as of now. 54 Trump / 45 Harris with 44pct reporting.
My wife and I voted at 4 PM here in Queens, New York, with a 40 minute wait. Jill Stein wasn’t on the ballot (I’m always the last to know!). I asked loudly, “Where’s Jill Stein’s name?” My wife shrunk as furious glances were sent our way, and the lady handing out ballots (we were given “fast” credential cards in the mail) said coldly, “I don’t know.”
I was told that the voting time was much quicker later in the evening, but we wanted to get it over with. Jill’s team told me that all I had to do was write her name in, and it would count.
For those of you who are interested, we are NOT on in North and South Dakota, Oklahoma, Indiana and Nevada
We are write in for DC, IL, NY, DE, IA, WY, VT, and KS
All the others we are ON the ballot
Jill Stein was on the Ohio ballot but votes for her (including mine) won’t be counted because reasons:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/votes-for-green-party-s-jill-stein-will-not-be-counted-in-ohio-despite-being-on-the-ballot/ar-AA1ttxX4
Stein had to run as an Independent in Ohio because several years ago the Green Party failed to meet the threshold of votes required for ballot access as a party in the state.
I had to write her name in here in Vermont. Another reason to not vote for team blue.
I did the same. Interesting that Cornell West is still on the VT. ballot. RFK jr too.
Jill Stein on the ballot here, deep in the red heart of Texas.
She is also on the ballot here in the “Dark Heart of Dixie,” Mississippi. So too is Robert Kennedy Jr.
I’m wondering if I will be the only vote for the Greens in this College Town. Lots of Harris/Walz signs popped up in the last week of the campaign. I also see Trump signs in the heart of the college student ‘ghetto.’ Around here, it looks like Trump is getting a chunk of the college student vote.
Somehow she was back on the ballot in WI, after the D’s forced her off last time. I haven’t been keeping track, but I suppose some sort of legal attack is ongoing or planned against her here.
I worked with the Cornel West campaign, attempting to get him on the ballot in NY.
I was told by some more informed than me, that the duopoly parties in NY rammed through a provision, late one night, that increased the already onerous ballot signature requirements to the ridiculous threshold of 45,000. Jill Stein was on the ballot prior to this, but the new requirements got her kicked off. Her campaign got around 35,000 signatures. I heard she is suing to get back on the ballot. Meanwhile yes, it is your constitutional right to write in the candidate of your choice. I did, and it felt good.
It does feel good to vote for a peace candidate.
I voted for Stein in Maryland this morning. For whatever it turns out to be worth.
Tell ‘em, Doc!!!!
#HUDSONHAWK2028
Glad to see you getting your feet dirty, Big Dawg!!!
3500 Green Party votes here in Louisiana!
Well, the sheepdog didn’t get put down yet… does a Bernie Sanders win mean anything to anyone?
It’s going to do wonders for his congressional pension.
It means that Gerald Malloy is not my senator, thank god. Be careful what you wish for.
means plenty to me, having returned a few months ago from 8 yrs abroad, back to VT, and his Office were the only adults in the room, bureaucratically speaking, i’ve encountered in the States. The concern for constituents on overarching domestic and international issues runs consistently through the Office the way one wishes it did for all politicians.
if the DNC was going to go after my family, as they were going to do w/Bernie, i might just decide the Presidency ain’t worth it too. as for his half-hearted promoting of Kamala, it was no problem to criticize it to the Office, and a source of lighthearted laughter.
I voted at 11:00 am in downtown Phoenix Arizona (for Jill Stein). Turnout was sparse, but we have very easy early voting here. Not sure who that helps/hurts.
When I voted this morning just before noon in Buffalo I was 243 for my district. I asked about turnout and poll workers said it had been slow steady. Wrote in Stein though I was still very tempted to write in FDR. Hell, the democrat party has been DOA for quite a while but want to see Greens get enough turnout to get on future ballots without the continued ballot blockages.
I’m going to watch an old comedy rerun on TV and then off to bed. See what the score is in the morning. Goodnight everyone!
While waiting for first returns, I watched “Hollywoodgate” on BBC4 this evening:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkw4QCx–0Y&ab_channel=FilmThreatTrailers
“Abdul, think about it…”
I like to watch The Great McGinty on Election Day.
Yawn. Stretch. I feel well rested. Had a cold recently and finally got a good night’s sleep. So … what happened?
Somebody is winning.
I’m pretty sure it’s the oligarchs.
Thumbs’ up to that!
I’ll add to that the MSM with another 4 years of TDS over everything Trump does and says. WAPO will probably get back those 200k subscribers that quit over its non endorsement of Harris and probably gain a few more while “saving” democracy.
Say Trump wins tonight, or by the weekend, what is the over/under on how quickly “they”, try to block him taking office with lawfare? And speaking of lawfare, wonder what will happen with those court cases still open against Trump?
If inaugurated, how soon before the 25th Amendment is trotted out?
I expect a Nixon/Ford scenario within the first year – Trump steps aside and gets pardoned.
In that case I would then expect that Vance would go on to do all the Project 2025 and christian nationalist stuff that Trump is presumed to be too disorganized, thwarted by the establishment, and disinterested to do, Vance’s occasional populist-ish pronouncement notwithstanding.
But most of us are losing.
Certainly anyone living in Ukraine, or Gaza, or Lebanon, or Georgia, or Mexico, is losing tonight. It makes me so sad.
I would add, the neo-cons are winning tonight no matter what.
Perhaps a Trump victory means they have to work a bit harder.
Even in China I’m losing. It seems Congress is going to ban this American from hedging against the coming inflation (no matter who wins) by investing in Chinese tech index funds.
I missed this, could you direct me to an article? It would be much appreciated.
I mis-spoke. It’s a Biden Executive Order. From NC links a few days ago, iirc.
Thank you never the less.
absolutely. it may be a matter of only a few scores of thousands of human beings who get to live that would have died, or it may be many more than that. humane rationale ain’t w/the Dems, and i cannot believe i’m on the side of Ted Cruz in hoping for Trump. not a fan of Trump’s irrationale either (voted Stein), but the man can be negotiated with – on the other side, well, no way.
it all comes down to the proverbial Doloreses in Housecoat Center, Cameron County, PA. and how many votes the Dems can find left to count twice in Philly.
In the states where RFK is still on the ballot, he’s currently receiving receiving anywhere between 0.6% and 1.4% of the vote. Stein’s best showing so far is Virginia and New Jersey with 1.0%.
In my deep red state, Harris/Walz was at the top of the ballot, and Trump/Vance were the 5th ones down on a list of 10 or 12, tightly spaced enough that it took me a few seconds to find it, and it wouldn’t have been all that difficult to mark the wrong bubble to the left. RFKJ still on the ballot, 2nd, below Harris/Walz. And this is, I repeat, a deep red state.
Alphabetical order please.
The order seemed random when I voted here in NC. But maybe I just wasn’t reading closely.
Per the link below, ballot order matters, at least in CA city council and school board elections.
https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~marcmere/workingpapers/BallotOrder.pdf
From https://electionlab.mit.edu/research/ballot-order-effects
“Krosnick, Miller, and Michael Tichy found in 2003 that appearing first on the ballot in the 2000 presidential election increased George W. Bush’s vote share by almost 10 percentage points relative to appearing last.”
Hillary Clinton couldn’t argue unfair alphabetical ordering in 2016 vs Donald Trump.
Maybe the 2016 HRC feared Jeb Bush partly for alphabetical reasons?
Election machines could easily have randomized order and multiple versions of paper ballots should be distributed, but I don’t know it if that is the case.
I think randomized order is usually the case now: Krosnick has been a big influence on that dim, insofar as an academic can be.
Harris/ Walz were near the bottom on my ballot. I think they’re randomized, though. Top of the ballot was librarian party, I think.
“librarian party”! Am I dreaming or is autocorrect doin its thing?
Vote for Dewey/Decimal, or else you’re a nazi!
The exact same as my Mississippi ballot. Howdy neighbour!
Way down here in the under down under our (paper, hand counted in public) ballot papers follow the Robson amendment. The order of candidates is randomised, but with different randomisations among the ballot papers. No two consecutive papers in the pile to be handed out have the same order of candidates.
http://kirra.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/bill/ceavctopvatrrb20211143/notes.html
I wish to thank everyone for their kind wishes earlier. And confirm I made the right decision. Got a new test with a supply delivery. Covid it is.
Everyone take care, and don’t let the madness get you
Hang in there, Pat!
Take care of yourself Pat!
Pat, feel better. The Dude sends her cat love.
I know that “medical advice” is frowned upon by site policy, but do get some of ‘The Mectin That Cannot Be Named” and do it as early as you can. I have anecdotal reports from acquaintances that it does help reduce the severity of the effects of the infection.
Yes. It seems to have worked for me when I was getting slammed hard on the second (third?) time.
I triple-snorted my trusty povidone. Throw the book at it, Pat. Get well soon!
Just make sure to take care of yourself. Take it easy and chill out for a coupla days.
For what it’s worth:
Final realclearpolitics poll average for Florida – Trump +8.0
With 90% of the vote in – Trump +12.6
lots of non-white support for Trump in FLA on social media….he might actually win Dade County!
Blast! No Brooks Brothers Riot this cycle!
so I just watched a news report from a non-US news channel re. Americans talking about their mental health issues arising from the election (,and that awful-methodology Harvard poll saying that 69% of Americans have mental health issues due to the election)…all the interviewees looked like (my stereotyping) upper 15% white collar types.
One of the main themes of the interviewees was “taking time for themselves” post-election for healing.
The funny thing is that for rebular people tomorrow—it is Wednesday. A work/school day. Rise and shine, time to make the donuts! talk about self-indulgence that detracts from real mental illness
I imagine, by their definition, anyone voting for Trump has a mental health issue, and that’s already a big chunk of that 69%
I received a text moments ago from a dem polling op asking how I voted. Options were:
– Harris
– Trump
– Did not vote for prez
– Did not vote at all
No option for specific 3rd-party candidates nor a general 3rd-party selection. I opted not to respond.
Thanks for the live blog!
#RussiaRussiaRussia
Yep! #MaddCow is at it again/already! Apparently, fake bomb threats to Fulton County GA polling stations have been linked (by the FBI among others – Spookery™ alert!) to Russia!!!
Dear ${DEITY}, make it stop! Make. It. Stop.
Now I’m picturing Maddow riding a nuclear bomb, Slim Pickens style – heading for the Kremlin.
“Yee-Haaaawwww!”
#TIL :)
Whew. Close race in N.C. < 30k votes.
Polling and election result broadcast technology in 19th century America:
https://markstoneman.com/2024/11/04/broadcasting-election-results.html
Welp. Just got a free shot of malort for stealing someone’s “I voted” sticker. I think that’s the best thing I’m getting out of this election regardless of outcome.
Skills!
Ouch, Malort is considered punishment by most people where I come from. We have a bottle just to give a taste to people who’ve never tried it.
Haha. I understand that. It’s not for everyone to be sure.
Let the brew and alcohol flow….I guess that Miller Light has enough of an ABV % that with time, it’ll add up to a decent beer buzz ?!?
I was definitely voting today and I have not voted in a long damn time. Shame on me yes…hand me one of those brown bags for my head like the Saints fans of old* used to wear….*before the arrival of Sean Payton and Drew Brees that is.
Reporting for duty!
Go, Harris go! Beat Orangeman!
Homemade pizza and vodka for me.
“We did it, Joe!”
I highly suspect that if Trump wins, Netanyahu will immediately agree to a ceasefire in Gaza.
#MissionAccomplished
And after Netanyahu graciously agrees to stop the war, he will be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize – and will get it.
I saw this earlier. Denying that this means ethnic cleansing will be hard, but I have no doubt our politicians and media will give it their best effort and probably succeed within their bubbles. Unfortunately the bubbles include about 98% of Americans.
This presidential election seems like the least active live-blog environment I can remember since the internet became a thing.
Independents in GA:
Earlier in the day, I saw what appeared to be “dueling exit polls” being put out on social media. Fox News was reporting that its exit polls were showing “Economy” and “Immigration” as #1 and #2, while NBC was saying its exit polls were showing “Democracy” and “Economy” as #1 and #2. Economy in the top two benefits Trump more than Harris.
And ABC was saying Democracy and something else as the top issues. I think economy was 3rd. Didn’t buy it at all.
Why it was important for the Trump campaign to shoot down that Detroit eruption; to preserve credibility for genuine cases (very much unlike 2020):
Of course, I’m taking this Tweet for granted, but it would be easy to disprove…
I’m in Milwaukee, and am skeptical of either federal or the local officials ability to 1) accurately assess anything on the ground and 2) do anything about it other than put out press statements, based on a lifetime of experience here; where I used to live, in ‘the hood’, the police wouldn’t even get out of their cars; I don’t see how those attempting to collect official data would fare better. The logistical problems, and vendor incompetence and corner-cutting which make everything else here untrustworthy (unless you’re rich) wouldn’t seem to me to be able to be discounted here. Sorry that I’m not giving specific evidence; it’s late, I’m busy and wired, and there are gunshots going off.
Gunshots going off? Not good…
55% that Republicans sweep presidency & both houses of Congress. [NY Times]
Voting Issues Hit Multiple Swing States All Sides. PA, WI, GA. Commentary:
UPDATE The Big O weighs in:
Only because the United States balloting system is uniquely bad, worldwide (just like our health care system, come to think of it. Thanks, Obama!).
NOTE I forgot to mention in the conclusion to this post that the simple Presidential ballot can be separated from the often complex (sometimes, indeed, booklet-sized) state and local ballots, so I am please to see that idea pop up here.
Would it make sense that “battleground states” is in fact a lot of redderick to only cover up the fact that DT might win handily and there are genuinely no battleground states? So to keep it artificially tight? Nobody is gonna watch if Trump is the winner already + fraud could be hidden more easily by both sides (though my moment feeling sees no big time fraud.) May be this time it´s like those World Cup soccer finales that turned out lame.
p.s. a bold SLN sketch with Harris could have been a mirror image played by Alec Baldwin (or whoever it is now) as Trump speaking with tone style of Harris the way Maya Rudolph did. Or Rudolph does HER Trump impersonation doing everything else she did.
Of course this would have led to the firing of the entire writers room and producing staff and emigration of those to Somalia or Afghanistan, (certainly not Kenya which would not be safe from Democrats´ wrath.)
p.p.s. Netflix´ s show “Hacks” is not as smart as it thinks it is. But it might fit the current situation with a “woke” writer working for an old non-woke star comedian.
Phyl and I trundled on down to the local polling station to vote at around 3:00 PM CT this afternoon. Got her out of the car and into her wheelchair and sauntered into the station, a converted Baptist Church daycare centre. There were several low tables with screens and “proper black pens” with which to fill in the bubbles on the ballot sheet for her convenience. (The black pen part reminded me strongly of taking the SAT test way back when.) The poll worker told us that we needn’t have come inside if it was a burden. New rules allowed poll workers to come outside the polling station, into the parking lot, and administer the election ballot in the comfort of your own vehicle! This was a real accommodation if I may say so. We were the only people we saw in about ten minutes in and around the polling station who wore masks. No one acted “strange” around us, but still….
This being the end of the day, so to speak, we saw a steady stream of voters while we were there. More than one matron bought her children into the voting ‘zone’ with her. The grade school kids looked seriously interested. One pair of pre-schoolers tried not to stare at Phyls lg stump. Their Mom started to say something to them but Phyl stopped her and said that this was a part of life that the children would have to incorporate into their world view sooner or later. “Don’t be embarrassed. I am used to this and I like children, so, why get defensive?” The mother visibly relaxed. Later I had to wonder, what does this woman encounter in her regular life that makes her defensive about her children learning about the less than ideal aspects of life?
Anyway. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. Phyl sends her love.
Nice story. I confess to being a bad citizen and commenter by not voting even though the polling station is a short walk. But I did preserve my record of never voting for Trump (in the past Stein).
If the Dems do get a shakeup tonight perhaps we’ll return to a world of better choices. Nowhere to go but up.
Apparently SC quickly went for Trump. The one party (presidential) state thing gets old.
Republican operative on men in PA:
Haven’t seen any trustworthy data on this one way or the other.
But did they tell their wives where they were going? :)
Maybe they have Election Day beer tents in PA?
Hey, maybe CA could set up polling stations in those commercial wine cellars. For them it would be the best of both worlds.
Those men probably told their wives that they were going to visit their girlfriends or to get drunk down at the honky tonk.
Lol! Country music jumps the shark.
“Just heading out the strip club, honey!”
Actually that line reminds me of something that I saw here in Oz years ago, We had a Federal election back in ’07 and change was in the air as people had had a gut full of the sitting government. I was working the polls that day and before we opened, there was a very long line of people waiting to get in and vote which I had not seen before and there was a vibe about that line. I can only compare it to this line-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0GW0Vnr9Yc (32 secs)
Early Iowa results do show Harris in the lead. Three counties in, two smaller red counties and the very blue Polk County (Des Moines). Amazing how fast they can count the vote in that city when they want to be first to report. Tried to get results from the Iowa Secretary of State but that page never loaded.
To me Trump did well in Polk. There are eight reliably Democratic counties in Iowa, and then there are the other 91 much smaller counties but one thing they all have in common is that they hate Des Moines (hating the capitol city is very common in farm country).
I’m pretty sure Iowa is safe for Trump.
Can’t speak for the other 7 urban counties you referenced, but Davenporters view Des Moines with a mixture of bemusement and contempt.
I’m still watching Florida because it’s the only state that is remotely close to being done counting.
With 94% of the vote counted, Trump is ahead by 13.5% now, 5.5% above the RCP final polling average.
Obviously if he’s been undercounted in polling AGAIN, if this undercount isn’t a real outlier, he sweeps all 7 swing states – even if the undercount is half of Florida elsewhere.
Good point about comparing this to the final RCP polling average. WSJ has called Florida for Trump. I’m no stats expert so I’m not sure how they decide a certain % is “enough”, but 94% seems close to that, given the difference is one million plus.
> Still watching Florida
Do we know what the Puerto Rican (not Latino generally) vote was?
The logistics vote in central PA has yet to come in….
the Amish mobilized big in 2024 partly due to a federal raid on an unlicensed Amish raw-milk-selling farmer.
allegedly 100,000+ new Amish voters this year….who I am sure that Siena College dutifully polled, lol
> the Amish mobilized big in 2024 partly due to a federal raid on an unlicensed Amish raw-milk-selling farmer.
[slaps forehead] So that’s what that was all about.
They keep talking about a heavy population of Puerto Ricans in Osceola County in Florida.
It flipped from a Biden county to a Trump county tonight.
I don’t see why PRans would be that offended by the infamous joke: PR is in a sad shape for multitude of reasons, for which both Dem and Rep admins are at fault. It’s “America is already great” again. Stupid and ignorant.
When I was there, the PR community was large in central Florida (Orange County) as well.
Youth fail signature matching:
Heck, I fail signature matching, and I’m less than youthful….
Story time. In Florida back in 2010 s almost didn’t get my DL renewed. Woman at the DMV looked at me sternly and said the signature doesn’t match. She did finally relent. Like I don’t look like the photo. Lame. My signature is just a scribble now.
The Nevada DMV uses a touch screen for signatures now too, so comparing a real signature to a mangled touch screen one could be a problem even for older voters (I’m in my mid-30s).
Yes, trying to scribble a legible, representative signature on to a touch-screen is nearly impossible for me. But then I’m not considered a ‘youth’ anymore.
It’s not just a matter of youth no longer being taught and using cursive. To get a driver’s license/state ID often now the signature is entered on a touchscreen. So it can be a problem even for older people who may still have a fairly consistent written signature, but they move or for some other reason need to get a new ID.
I don’t remember a lot from Elementary school but I sure do remember being taught how to write.
As a Trustee of the local cemetery, we send out annual dues and sometimes receive notes along with the checks. There is some absolutely beautiful penmanship on some of those papers, it almost makes me want to frame them.
Was going to say the same. I just can’t reproduce a signature, I doubt I’ve ever done it the same way twice and I’m not young either.. On top of that I go exclusively by “Mike” and sign it when I can, if I have to sign “Michael”- like on my driver license- it is a mess.
This reminds me of a television commercial for a bank in Florida from the late 1970s to early 1980s. In it, the voiceover narrator extolls the virtues of the particular bank while explaining that one’s signature deteroirates over time. When you are young, a young man is shown laboriously crafting a gem of a signature. As he ages, he is shown writing his name in a steadily deteriorating manner. Eventually, we are shown an old man who scrawls a squiggle across the bottom of a cheque. Truly a genius level ad. Close to reality too, which is the hallmark of all true comedy.
Stay safe.
Ah, Blackadder. My favorite comedy of al time. How I wish they’d gone on to do another series or two back when the show’s writers were capable of producing such wonderful material. Nowadays, neither of them could write anything funny to save their lives.
As for the election, I can’t believe it’s this close given everything the Democrats have done over the past 4 years. Not that I really want to see Trump become president again. Sigh. Nothing but bad choices, unless you count the 3rd parties, and I’m feeling less than sanguine towards the Green Party after seeing what became of the Greens in Europe. I gotta say I don’t envy you folks in the U.S. right now.
Holy Poopie! Trump crushed it in Miami-Dade, +12. (home of a big Haitian community to boot)
Bad news for Dems who are relying on election day urban votes (Philly, Detroit, Milwaukee)
2024 might be the completion of the electoral map realignment that Trump started to build in 2016
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-florida-president.html
Larry Johnson’s latest email:
Matt Taibbi’s latest email:
Reading these back to back I had to wonder if MSNBC isn’t trying to keep things light to keep some cities from getting lit up. Never occurred to me that Harris folks would riot but DC would be the place if they did.
I’ve been watching this guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eomVfQkJec
He’s basically going by NY Times probabilities, while also checking the betting market.
Is it just me or is the Democrat margin of victory in NJ only half as high compared to 2020?
64% reporting in with a margin of 7.3 for Democrats. It was 16 last time around.
not just you or NJ.
Harris was only polling +11 in New York City….when generic Dem should be polling >20+
Final NY state numbers are nowhere near out yet….but anything under 58% for Harris is a loss for Dems.
Then I’m about to call this election for Trump.
One swing state down?
North Carolina and Georgia should have been called for Trump hours ago. Barring heavy-handed shenanigans, PA is now his. VA remains a strange creature.
Watching a bit of ConsortiumNews Live Panel.
It is a bit freakshow-ish with Scott Ritter, Merrick Garland, a Gerald Celente and Joe Lauria sitting in a darkly lit living-room like on Assange but worse sound next to a TV-set.
However there are bits of interesting info if one is wiling to listen.
Ritter e.g. says Harris was doing not bad in Detroit (with the Muslim voters I believe) because Trump is just kown to be awful on ME until Clinton came in and it all bombed.
Ritter & Garland repeat a point by Walter Kirn: Harris seems to love to have the appearance of power. And when she really is in her element its when she speaks about being DA and PUNISHING people.
Ritter very wisely says: She NEVER said how she had helped people as DA. It was only about punishment.
see here: https://consortiumnews.com/2024/11/05/watch-live-election-coverage/
The text under the video says this however:
“Consortium News‘ CN Live! will host a panel discussion the day after the election to assess the results with Margaret Kimberley, John Kiriakou, Brian Becker, Gerald Celente, Richard Wolff and Patrick Lawrence, hosted by Elizabeth Vos and Joe Lauria, produced by Cathy Vogan on Wednesday from 3:30pm EST to 6:30pm.”
>Ritter & Garland repeat a point by Walter Kirn: Harris seems to love to have the appearance of power. And when she really is in her element its when she speaks about being DA and PUNISHING people.
>Ritter very wisely says: She NEVER said how she had helped people as DA. It was only about punishment.
That is a great point.
And I would add, the only thing that got punished recently was our brain cells and IQ points having to listen to her word salad non answers to even the most softball of questions by the friendliest of interviewers imaginable…
> Merrick Garland
Merrick Garland? Nice get!
Good God! I AM COMMITTING SEPPUKU THIS VERY MOMENT!
(That´s what you get from reading more than one item at once.)
shit. And sorry everyone!
Garland ahem Nixon
My subconscious imputed Garland Nixon into the paragraph. No way Merrick would be sitting next to Ritter.
“subconscious imputed ”
yep
Odds for Harris are in free fall on Polymarket:
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024
83% Trump
17% Harris
as of now.
Bag holders gonna bag hold.
Robinhood similar, 16 vs 87
Musk to Spend Election Night With Trump New York Times. I see what they did there. Anyhow:
I know I’m supposed to perform aghastitude, but this seems to me an institutional issue; what matters is not outcomes — are we really to assume that the Harris campaign is without influence at the executive level in other major media venues? — but layers of indirection. (Trump just reaches for a cookie in the jar; Democrats have their lawyers and the fixers reach for the cookie; the indirection is what makes Democrats moral and ethical, at least in their minds, not the acquisition of the cookie per se.)
I’m wondering if Musk is angling for a Cabinet position so that he can cash in his shares tax free.
In that case, the $50M or whatever was well worth the donation
**Does anybody have rhyme or reason for when the NC server eats people’s comments????**
This sort of comment is not on and more of this ilk will not be approved, so try upping your game instead. There is plenty of bona fide criticism you can make of Musk without resorting to lame fabrications.
He’s not going to want to give up control. He loves running those companies.
Polymarket now 87.4% for Trump
LOL!
Given the strong anti-Trump media rhetoric, I bet that a Trump win will cause NYTimes or WaPo to run a headline that blares “New Evidence that Trump beat two women over 8 year period just to further his own career”
Yeah, check out the 1h TF on their chart. Harris has dropped from 27% to 9.5% in just an hour.
Polymarket — Trump has 76% chance of winning popular vote
Now 89% Trump for electoral votes
If I remember correctly betting markets was in favour of trump in 2020 as well. Unless we make a market with only professional forecasters , Imho these numbers are not of much value.
That was a possibility I did not even consider as remotely likely. If that happens it can only be interpreted as a firm rebuke of Ms. Harris and the Democrat party. It means that economic outranked abortion too. What a wild election if that is what ends up happening.
I bet the Ds are warming up their RussiaRussiaRussia guns
> I bet the Ds are warming up their RussiaRussiaRussia guns
Possibly more than that.’
Jen O’Malley Dixon probably has that “thirty-five year national security expert” on the phone right now…
Voting machines back online in central PA:
NJ is magical. Every time it updates, it looks worse and worse for the Dems. Utterly demoralized Democrats with low turnover.
Iowa just called for Trump by NBC.
So much for the poll from this weekend.
> Iowa
Selzer (as pointed out by hk here) is in fact worth paying attention to.
That said, the narrative never made any sense. The older white women demographic Selzer projected massively increasing were (probably) Clinton voters in 2016, and have been aging out since then. They were already fully committed both to a woman as President to Roe. It makes no sense that a new tranche would magically appear in that cohort.
AP just called Iowa for Trump.
As I said on Sunday when the poll came out: “It simply defies common sense that an empty suit could win a presidential race in Iowa in this climate and with no Democrat infrastructure.”
I don’t even remember 2020 now. Pandemic. Just Bernie getting knifed and going all in on Biden.
I do remember 2016. Just moved to Boston. Staying in a garbage Airbnb in Somerville. Watching on my Nexus 4 Android. Was called for Clinton basically was in bed before midnight.
Next day all hell broke loose.
What has been amazing to me tonight is how many polls have been so so wrong.
The miss in Florida somehow seems to me to be total incompetence. But there are so many others.
Nate Silver apparently quit updating an hour and a half ago? NYT needle leaning pretty hard toward Trump.
Aaand Silver just put the whole thing behind the paywall, including the previously public updates.
> NYT needle
Looks like NYT management brought in some scabs, because the needle is still working. Here is the current state (10:49pm):
Hmm….
Maybe Ohio’s polling isn’t so bad with Trump overperforming by only three points so far?
General Left/third party here: I volunteered for Dr. Cornel West on 3 different tickets, but they never got their ground game together. I then collected signatures for Claudia de la Cruz (Party for Socialism and Liberation); she is on the ballot in my state (WI). She, Dr. West, and Dr. Stein have made a last minute pact to persuade their respective bases to vote for whichever one of them is on the ballot in the various states the others aren’t.
On the one hand, it’s a shame, and characteristic of the modern American left, that there wasn’t a more unified and well run effort from earlier on. The Greens getting matching funding (which may happen; we’ll see) would represent a shift in electoral mobilization which couldn’t be ignored. On the other, it might be that the cumulative efforts ofthe three campaigns should be counted together, with the understanding of those factors on the left which divided them in a constrained electoral cycle.
The other parties are all right wing, and I use the old French definition of that as justifying and naturalizing existing structures of power.
“it’s a shame, and characteristic of the modern American left, that there wasn’t a more unified and well run effort from earlier on.”
Which I don´t get.
If everything is soooo darn awful why can´t people just leave behind their egos and create a viable option #3?
I did hear repeatedly West wouldn´t “play ball”.
But I don´t buy into it since its always just anecdotal. May be? May be not?
It might have never been this easy to hurt either uniparty in an election. Real pity.
which I don’t get
By purchasing (Women’s March) or obliteration (Occupy) or by disenfranchising (the Greens). For starters.
Halfway inside baseball: my landlord is a longtime green insider (though she may have voted Harris out of TDS), even hosted a fundraiser for Stein right below me. We met, she was kind, but busy. I, and another lefty from the under 60 division attended drunk.
West has never run an electoral campaign at any level; to start with the presidency was always crazy. Stein offered to run his campaign, and was totally on board with him being on the Green ticket; I’m not sure exactly what got in the way, but he moved on. As mentioned before, it’s a shame. We have years to collaborate and come together; it doesn’t have to be such a haphazard showing.
I didn’t know about that, that’s a nice show of solidarity. I’m just hoping the greens qualify for fed funding.
Can’t count the times I’ve had to explain to people overseas that yes, we are the beacon of democracy here to liberate you, and yes, we only have two parties which are mostly one party and no, no alternatives are allowed.
Thse good news from Ohio is that Dennis Kucinich is polling better than Jill Stein. The bad news is that he’s polling at 12%.
It’s the banality of empire.
Second swing state down? GA:
So, Trump’s going to win handily after all, is he? He might even win the popular vote this time? Well, the Dems need to be soundly thrashed to show the decisions they’ve made/the path they’ve chosen is not ok. But we all know they won’t learn any lessons from such an outcome. They’ll just leap to the conclusion that they weren’t right wing enough.
And blame any and everything else
Everything Russian, Chinese and Iranian.
What happened to North Korea I wonder, their hackers can’t get no respect?
And Jill Stein…
Does not look like the margins will make blaming Jill Stein a credible ploy.
Credible is not the operative word here. Margins is. The Big Lie will magically appear yet again to obscure and distort the real figures and their reasons for existing. Remember when Ralph Nader “lost” the election for Al Gore in Florida in 2000? Same rationale. Stein will “lose” this election for Harris. Remember. Democrat Party candidates cannot fail, they can only be failed. All of the properly credentialled campaign advisors agree on that point.
Maybe, but that will be a lot less credible. Al Gore only lost Florida by a few votes, if he lost it at all. Nader had way more than enough votes to make up the difference.
I agree the hard core Democrat operatives will never admit they were wrong, but the question is whether they can come up with a narrative that substantial numbers of people will buy.
Well, I hope the Trump DOJ makes some criminal cases against some of the criminals in the Democratic party. That ought to change the party on the ground….
Wouldn’t it be great if he prosecuted the people who were corrupt in the Ukraine fiasco?? That would be such sweet Justice….
Well, you can bet Hunter Biden is contemplating his options at this very moment!
It will be interesting to see who Biden pardons before he leaves office.
The election was the Democratic Party’s to win, but on economics, healthcare, Gaza, it decided to not do what most Americans want. What fools.
And now I get to deal with a family that believes that President Trump’s goon squads are coming for them because of bigotry. We are all college educated, bleed democratic blue, sometimes old school socialist red, and now this nonsense.
I’ll be very curious after, win or lose, to what extent voters of conscience that rejected genocide had any impact on Democrat Party margins.
For me, it one the one thing I could not ignore or forgive. If slaughtering entire families is not evil, what is? If it is acceptable, what is unacceptable? Truly?
Giving the weapons, the tools, the fuel, the intelligence, the reconnaissance, the political shield and the financial support to keep this daily slaughter to continue. America cops a lot of flak for doing this but when it is finally over, it will come out that there was a very long list of countries enabling this genocide and I know that my country will be on it. If this was the early 1940s, the west would be shipping as much Zyklon B to Europe as they could manufacture.
Goddammit. This is exactly what I was talking about-
https://declassifiedaus.org/2024/11/05/australia-defies-u-n-in-defence-trade-with-israel/
I also give the deplorables some credit – they may not know much, but I suspect they know that it is a bad idea to elect people who hate you and think genocide is OK.
> So, Trump’s going to win handily after all, is he?
Don’t get ahead of yourself.
God, is that the truth. Afghanistan disaster evac, Vietnam style, men falling from their planes on the runway (that’s been memory holed). Ginning up war in Ukr/Russia, a dementia-addled president, a cruel VP whose big achievement was incarceration – often of innocent men, cost of living death spiral for actual people, uhhm, oh yeah, genocide in Gaza … while telling those who mentioned it to “shut up I’m speaking”, the class snobbery (look at trump working in a mcdonalds, pass my smelling salts), the incessant ‘trump is hitler’ followed in fast order post shooting as ‘we should never condone physical violence’.
They’re getting what they deserve. Sadly, it won’t be just them, Gaza will continue to get what it doesn’t deserve.
Steve Kornacki will the early doomsday call just now on MSNBC … GA + NC = 251, and if PA next, then he’s at 270 … and Trump is outperforming or level with 2020 on a county by county basis.
I don’t think it’ll be long …
TikTok was spot on!
I tried to fool the algo into feeding mevideos from both sides…..but all the witty, energetic, funny, compelling (sometimes even gripping) videos were from Trump supporters.
Scripted reality TV is nothing compared to ordinary people sharing their soul, hopes, struggles, conflicts over their phone camera
> TikTok was spot on!
It’s very odd to see all the effervesence, all the (dare I say) revolutionary sentiment on the Republican side.
Economy ranked as a top issue, but concerns over democracy drove many voters to polls, AP VoteCast shows PBS
This is the AP feed to PBS. The current AP feed, interestingly, does not have the “upheaval” sentence.
I hope some of these DNC types start thinking about how their party is responsible for Trump’s big win. Maybe we’ll start seeing some opinion pieces or editorials in some of the newspapers?
We live in strange times so I think unexpected things can happen.
Either the neolibs are completely purged from the party and the New Dealers make a come back or the Dems can drop dead.
It’s not enough for this defeat. Another one in 2028 will finish the party off permanently but that depends on alot factors…
Something is going to happen to start the process of change, but I don’t think it will be the DNC regulars accepting blame through mainstream media channels.
I’m thinking not so much “accepting blame” but more of a circular firing squad situation
remember in the year 2017 when we were emailing each other the link to Nomiki Konst at the DNC “Unity and Reform Meeting”? where she went on a rant about transparency and whatever else?
… remember we had optimism “finally changed” ….. ?
the clamp down started primary-ing people in their own party, and giving money to R candidates …
with as much money as they have made over the past nine years, no chance anything will change ………………………… especially since “existential threat” has four more years …….
When I voted this morning just before noon in Buffalo I was 243 for my district. I asked about turnout and poll workers said it had been slow steady. Wrote in Stein though I was still very tempted to write in FDR. Hell, the democrat party has been DOA for quite a while but want to see Greens get enough turnout to get on future ballots without the continued ballot blockages.
Is anyone running a count of the Biden write-ins?
I was an election worker in non-Lawrence blue KS (it exists). 44% of eligible voters had already voted early in my county and WAY outnumbered today’s turnout in my precinct. Fairly slow day at the polls as most had taken care of business earlier. Only 400 voted today in my precinct out of 1,750 eligible. Stein not on ballot though. As usual, Dems had some late hopes for Prez but got crushed as usual.
So much for the Iowa polls…
Way to burn your reputation.
Selzer has re-affirmed my faith to never trust polls.
The Russians say the very same thing. Oh wait, you mean the polls.
Yeah, I feel foolish for giving it so much of my attention. One poll = one poll.
Comedy Central is about to start the Indecision with Jon Stewart, it maybe funny. I also do like the idea of having a separate president vote and then have the local and State issues.
> separate president vote and then have the local and State issues
All on one day (national holiday). Ballots would be separate.
CNN: “Looks a lot more like 2016 than 2020.”
The Hill now calling Ohio Senate
Sherrod Brown is gone.
The frankly the banks own the place guy. It’s been so many years, I honestly forget if in the end Brown was someone I should loathe, revere, or not care.
> Sherrod Brown is gone.
Wow, I would have expected Biden’s instant and empathetic visit to East Palestine to have helped Brown out (oh, wait. He waited until an election year).
Ha! You’ll appreciate this tweet, Lambert … :) (via X/Twitter)
For those curious about early voting, for NC, from the state itself, we have these results:
Total Votes Percent Election Day Early Voting Absentee By-Mail Provisional
Donald J. Trump 2,504,516 50.72% 504,297 1,864,727 135,472 20
Kamala D. Harris 2,362,655 47.85% 347,292 1,839,628 175,724 11
So thus far absentee is about even. In early voting, Trump crushed it.
Seven smallish counties are still “Not reported”. The largest counties, with the blue cities, are overwhelmingly Harris:
BUNCOMBE
DURHAM
MECKLENBURG
WAKE (Raleigh)
Ballots cast: 63.87% (4,958,761 out of 7,763,502)
Precincts Reported: 78.22% (2,079 out of 2,658) (78%)
As of 10.57 eastern time.
fwiw this was 2020
Donald J. Trump REP 2,758,775 49.93%
Joseph R. Biden DEM 2,684,292 48.59%
Looks like Western NC came through (contrary to one of my best (or worst, depending) scenarios.
We’re at
Precincts Reported:
83.07% (2,208 out of 2,658)
It is now:
Donald J. Trump REP 2,517,602 50.55%
Kamala D. Harris DEM 2,390,453 47.99%
So 127,149 votes between them.
The last time I looked at this, I think I was at Alan Grayson’s campaign office for the primary in 2008. So I’m kind of rusty on what to look for, and for that matter, I’m in the wrong state. So I don’t know if this is over with or there’s still much left to learn before someone is declared a winner in NC.
But it’s surely very close.
I miss that, still somewhat naively thinking politics wasn’t a poisoned chalice. What a different a few bank bailouts makes. Among other things.
CNN: Jen O’Malley sends memo to staff saying that the key is the Blue Wall, and cities in those states (Milwaukee, Detroit, Philly), and that the campaign does not expect a result tonight (no doubt setting off alarm bells among Republican poll watchers).
County after county after county in PA, Harris in underperforming Biden 2020 numbers and Trump is pretty much outperforming his 2020 number by Harris’ shortfall.
KDH underperforming JRB 2020 seems to be nearly everywhere.
JRB knew what he was doing when he selected his running mate! (And perhaps when he endorsed KDH as his successor after he succumbed to the pressure to self-defenestrate.)
> JRB knew what he was doing when he selected his running mate!
:)
You know my theory, right?! Biden never wanted KH. He wanted an AK (Amy Klobuchar), but he owed Clyburn for saving his a** with the SC primary win against an ascendant Bernie, so … it became thus.
The thought occurs that the fading hope expressed in this memo may in future be known as “the Blue Wail”.
The 30 Year U.S. Treasury Bond has jumped a whopping 18 basis points tonight to 4.62% and the 10 Year is up by 16 basis points to 4.46% so it looks like the bond market is also betting on a Trump victory.
Good news for me, I need to roll over some treasuries.
Lina Khan is packing her bags …………….
Maybe Biden would have been a better candidate after all.
I wasn’t expecting much from either candidate on antitrust, but then Biden surprised. So who knows. What’s been shown is that victories can happen, and that kind of success I think is enduring and might reinvigorate the movement, even if the next 4 years under either candidate sucks for having anyone in the halls of power. We’ll see.
I do recall Vance saying that he had a very favorable opinion of Lina Khan.
Biden would not have lasted … he’s too far gone. The Dems blew this by not “reading the room” on the economy, Gaza, Ukraine and betting (as they always have in recent election cycles) that suburban Republicans are a better bet that working class poors. 2016 Redux.
Did I miss something?
same…she has to step aside of be replaced, no?
https://www.scribd.com/document/481602665/9The-Hermit-doc
random link from page 3 googs, but this is her…
Lina Kahn is a valuable asset for whomever sits the throne. We shall see.
Stoller says she would not serve in a Trump Administration even if asked. She would not be the chair and the Dems would not have a majority of seats.
I wouldnt write her off. There are Republican Senators who are Khan supporters and Vance may also. There is a younger cohort of conservatives that have been making very populist if noises on monopoly and antitrust. They might see antitrust enforcement in political terms, as a way to build their support among the working class.
Nate Cohn (11:14pm):
UPDATE Reminding me of this passage from Dune:
Although now I’m getting ahead of myself.
I’ve won bike races using age and treachery
> Wisconsin
CNN says Harris is underperforming Biden by 3% in Milwaukee (reminiscent of 2016, when Black voters stayed home).
MSNBC is repeatedly using an expression I have never heard before.
It relates to how the Kamala campaign is feeling now…….
“Nauseasly optimistic”
As in, an inner voice saying: “I’m not gonna hurl… I’m not… gonna… hurl… noooo…” ? lol
I can only wonder how your younger colleagues are taking it. Tomorrow will be an interesting day at work if Trump wins.
I have experienced this feeling when quite hung over, and looking at a plate of eggs and pork.
You and me both. It is a peculiar feeling indeed, that queasy feeling where you’re not quite sure if you need to throw up or not. But you definitely want the lights out.
fwiw, when I passed by the pbs they were saying things they probably should have been saying 3 years ago…
Still, the big cities take longer to count… it’s a toss up?
just now started reading at the bottom of the thread with that pass by as my only clue…
I can’t stop updating NJ’s results. The margin of victory is down to 4.9 so…
Is NJ gonna be a battleground state again soon?
Not impossible that NJ has a fiscal doom loop in the next 10 – 20 years as a chunk of its tax base has moved to the Sun Belt, accelerated by Covid.
That means taxes/Turnpike tolls, etc. have to go up to make up for the revenue gap as NJ is a low-population-growth state w/looming pension, spending, and capital investment cliffs.
Then the fireworks will start
Still 45 min left to get in line here in Hawaii. Earlier today local media was saying 3 hour line (on Oahu — Honolulu there are two places you can vote in person today; downtown and Kapolei). By law no vote counts are done until the last person in line has voted. West Hawaii (Kailua-Kona) also seems to have long lines in the past but don’t know today.
I get that since we went to “all mail-in” they spend a lot of money printing and mailing out ballots, so really prefer you use that method, but they shouldn’t diss people who want to vote in person on election day even if they think the are misguided or getting misinformation/big lie by making it hard to vote.
As it was my wife beat me into submission so I voted in person yesterday. (For some reason, she didn’t need me to order her how to vote. But she’s full-on MAGA/right to life so maybe that’s why).
Who the market wants:
Dow futures jump 500 points, Russell 2000 futures rise 2% as traders bet Trump winning: Live updates
Crazy!
Cryptos too. BTC looks vertical on the 1w chart. Almost +10% today
BTC chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/9wnUtxex/
We’ll always have fraud, at least!
The sun never sets on fraud.
(Actual quote from a case that I read.)
SIdenote: I bet the TNX hits 4.5% tomorrow if this holds.
Powell is going to have a problem on his hands!
Holy face-frying crack-up boom, Batman!
Dow futures +1265
SP +133
TNX 4.46 (called it)
The Dread Pirate Powell is gonna have a bad day at the office, today.
PA is starting to pull away for Trump.
Still a bit to go, but does not look good for Harris.
> PA is starting to pull away for Trump.
Source? What counties?
What AP sez:
As of now:
So there’s much counting left to be done, I think, and it seems very much up in the air.
Here is where it’s at, per PA state itself:
KAMALA D HARRIS (DEM)
Runningmate: TIM WALZ
47.87% (Votes: 2,524,234)
DONALD J TRUMP (REP)
Runningmate: JD VANCE
51.19% (Votes: 2,699,000)
No more details than that on reporting %, same for county level data.
Trump is now up over 200K statewide in PA …
Everyone’s favorite guy: Adam Schiff easily wins U.S. Senate seat in deep-blue California
Another serial liar in the Senate, sounds about right.
… to replace Sen. Laphonza Butler, who decided not to run herself after she was appointed following the death of Dianne Feinstein,
because kaching…don’t let that revolving door hit you in the posterior on the way around…
I’m sure she did what she needed to while in feinsteins seat
And Pelosi got her person in, after all! The uni-party in CA seems a nice bunch.
a nice bunch
…if you’re a komodo dragon..
> komodo dragon
I’m triggered:
It never occurred to me that Monty Python might have stolen the premise of this sketch.
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2oh8ia
Watching Rachel Maddow imitating how patients look when grievously constipated is worth it all.
She among many others on that network is the architect of what has happened to the Democratic Party over the last few years.
It cannot be happening to better people.
I can only hope that lessons are going to be learned among all the grief being heaped upon the run of the mill Dems. I have already gone through the grieving process over the past 4 years.
My office is just going to be wild the next few weeks. More like a funeral home, I suspect.
But 2016 didn’t teach Democrats anything, except that Russia is nefarious and hiding in every closet. I doubt much this, if they lose big tonight, which is not entirely certain yet, will chasten them at all. The PMC liberals are aggrieved as a class. That’s dangerous, as we’ve seen with the endless lawfare, the impeachments, and so on. All of which just further tarnishes any legitimacy of American style Democracy. If Democrats get pwned, I fear for the future. But I fear for it if they win, because that’s it for Democrat presidential primaries ever again, and lawfare is fully validated!
> Watching Rachel Maddow imitating how patients look when grievously constipated is worth it all.
LOL
> I can only hope that lessons are going to be learned among all the grief being heaped upon the run of the mill Dems.
Well … sadly I am not optimistic on that front. MSNBC’s crew is gonna fall back to #RussiaRussiaRussia, blaming Arab/Muslim voters in Michigan and Jill Stein if prior behavior holds.
> It cannot be happening to better people.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves (but CNN, whose coverage has been pretty good, keeps saying “this is not 2020. It’s 2016”).
The biggest difference is that Trump looks likely to capture the popular vote nationally.
Objectively meaningless, but takes away one much abused talking point.
It looks like AP called NC for Trump. 17 minutes ago.
I might have had too much homemade pizza, or it is the vodka. Whoops. Tempted to go for a walk.
Forbes just called North Carolina for Trump.
During her speech at the 2016 RNC convention, Michelle Van Etten rocked it in white slacks and called Trump the “Ultimate Ringmaster.”
Greatest Show On Earth…
Link with photos dammit! Lol!
Krystal Ball just said that she thinks the Democratic Party’s likely future reasoning for their probable lost is that Kamala Harris was too liberal.
I am not sure of that, but of course, this would enable them to ignore the fact that they were not leftist enough. Using cultural and social issues to ignore economics is normal.
That’s a standard Democrat play going all the way back to Jimmy Carter. Thomas Frank wrote about this in Listen, Liberal. It got to be pretty silly and tired with Dukakis.
An end to “divided government”? (I think that would be bad.)
On the other hand, this is a victory for “burn it down faster”! Climate is going to kill us all anyway, if the Pandemic doesn’t first. It isn’t like liberal Democrats take Climate seriously, either. The magic of the market will save us! Or maybe that’s the vodka talking.
The least important election ever, heh heh, my black heart does love the party liquor. Maybe we stop funding Ukraine? And I’m not reading about riots so that’s good for the moment.
The pink hat protests will return if orange wins!
Still a chance for the Donkeys to take the House, I believe. Or Marjorie-Taylor Greene to go Independent.
Go Harris! I love her laugh. I really can’t make it without it for the next 4 years. Plus, we will lose Lina Khan.
I think that Vance has spoken favorably of Khan. Perhaps keeping her could be pitched to DJT as a populist move.
Never gonna happen. Matt Stoller by e-mail some time she would not serve if asked. And Musk demanded she be fired a few days ago.
If this holds, it just shows how much damage the Dems caused with this hair-brained scheme.
> this hair-brained scheme
What hare-brained scheme?
So many possibilities . . .
AP just bumped the Republicans seats in the senate to 51.
yeah I want gridlock, the less they do the better
Interesting…AZ, PA, and GA haven’t moved in a bit (AZ for quite a while now).
Wonder what’s up. Especially with Shapiro’s statement.
The dreaded “shut down the machines, Mortimer!” We need to see how many votes to manufacture. This happened in 2020.
I should have written “allegedly happened.” There is no proof, but lots of folks suspect it.
Just watched a Jimmy Dore video talking about how cops were shutting down early voting stations yesterday in Bucks county in Pennsylvania until a judge told them that they were breaking the law and extended those stations by a day because of what those cops did-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6mGsVO0aTs (4:10 mins) – some language
> Especially with Shapiro’s statement
What Shapiro statement?
He made an official announcement that everyone needed to be patient and to reassure people that PA would count every legal vote.
May have been due to some polling station issues, but still…
Getting a bit nervous: Kirn (he is a novelist in his day job, after all) was speculating that something funny might be going down in any of the designated “battelground states.” A few years ago, I’d have thought that nuts. But now, I agree with him that some sort of funny shenanigans might be afoot if the vote counting is being oddly delayed (or, so it looks like…)
Well, she’s behind in MI, PA and WI … and has to sweep all three … so … any Spookery™ is gonna look seriously suspicious.
So, this makes 5 change elections in a row.
When do you think we’ll get some?
Would you like some hope with your change?
I just want to be left with a little change in my pocket at the end of a visit to the grocery store. Or insurance payment. Or medical bill.
Unfortunately, corporations and hedge funds will now be completely unfettered, and will loot the economy “like never before”.
They’ve been fettered?
They’ve already taken most of what’s been nailed down since the 30s.
Twelve is the charm.
Or, to put it another way, the D Party has picked 4 bad (policy-wise, and also, for the most part, electorally) candidates in the last 3 election cycles. It’s unreasonable to expect them to change any time soon.
I sympathize with the view that for change to take place, the D Party will need to perish. But that may only be a necessary, and not sufficient, condition.
Cue the Babylon Bee (satire) headline:
“WASHINGTON, D.C. — High-ranking officials in the Democrat Party are reportedly “extremely perplexed” to find that their candidate whom nobody ever voted for is currently slipping in the polls.
According to House Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democrats find it completely inexplicable why their candidate, who was never legally nominated and did not receive one single primary vote, is struggling to connect with voters…..”
https://babylonbee.com/news/democrats-perplexed-why-candidate-that-nobody-ever-voted-for-is-slipping-in-the-polls
I liked the line saying that Diddy’s ex-girlfriend Jennifer Lopez says to trust her judgement and vote for Harris.
Maybe Kamala should have run on the freak off platform? I’m sure Willie Brown would be on board with that.
A live comment from polymarket:
Libdem election night drinking supplies:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DB6pZ2uO17y/
That was supposedly posted by Bette Midler.
Whew… I LOl’d pretty hard at the comments on that.
The neolibdem party……
Once again we’re down to the handful of consequential states. I guess we’ll see when counting is done. It’s not clear either way. If Harris takes PA that seems bad news for Trump. This might go into tomorrow or later.
LOL
Missouri voters go for Trump but also chose a ballot measure to raise the minimum wage and have paid sick leave …
Yep … Dems came to a
guntangible material benefits fight witha knifelawfare, joy, vibes & genocide.Rashida Tlaib won re-election to the House.
That’s a victory worth celebrating for Dems.
indeed 👏
Yesss!!
Good! It was really sickening to see AIPAC go after some of the House progressives who opposed Bibi’s genocide.
Except are the bigger Dems going to celebrate it if Tlaib’s refusal to endorse Harris is blame-able for a Presidential loss there?
Harris Campaign Co-Chair Addressing Supporters …
His face and body language kinda say it all … there was no joy.
And will pass a pro-abortion amendment. Have those abortion amendments/initiatives been defeated anywhere?
The one in Florida didn’t pass tonight. It got the majority of votes but not the 60 percent needed to pass.
Sorry, probably should have included a link.
That was the fate of the smart growth amendment in 2008 as well. That’s been doing great with climate. Ha. Sprawl.
If I were Trump I´d put K. Harris in charge of the DoJ.
-he would baffle Democratic base and media
-he would offer the GOP leverage over Dems machinations for 2028+
-he would seriously weaken his opponents.
+make Scott Ritter new UN ambassador and create some form of informal cooperation with Sanders´ people in a Sean O´Brian kind of way.
If he gets shot for that by some deep state asset, so what. He will be 82 when his term is over. At least being a legend.
> If I were Trump I´d put K. Harris in charge of the DoJ.
And for Deputy AG? How about Steve Bannon?
Robert Barnes could actually make that argument.
On DURAN He DID suggest Bannon would come in as some advisor…
Taibbi on Racket 45 min. ago:
“Start with the hard news. California is called for Harris. Adam Schiff, on the short list of America’s worst humans, will serve as a U.S. Senator. Donald Trump’s most recent win is in Idaho, but he’s ahead in the popular vote and no matter what you might be hearing about Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the squeeze is on. The New York Times may go down as the first mainstream outlet to say it out loud, with analyst Nate Cohn at about 10:45 p.m. writing:
For the first time tonight, we consider Trump likely to win the presidency. He has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three. There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead.”
https://www.racket.news/p/election-update-6-the-puckering
Trump said to be on the way to his watch party; Harris will not make a statement.
Cedric Richmond just came on stage to tell everyone at the Harris election party to go home.
She sends out an underling. What a slap in the face.
Didn’t Hillary do the same thing back in 2016?
She did. Podesta came out.
Can’t Harris file 60 lawsuits and Biden draft an order to seize some voting machines?
> Can’t Harris file 60 lawsuits
She could; she has Elias on board.
If
Mike Penceshe does the right thing,weshe win[s] the election.I had a fever dream over the djt/musk post election brunch:
M: so we can get rid of lina?
D: I’m the twice elected fucking president, you’re a fucking welfare billionaire, mind your own businesses.
Unfortunately, I then woke up.
From AP:
MSNBC calls Georgia for Trump. At 254 now. PA and WI reportedly looking probable for Trump, also per MSNBC. My schadenfreude meter is off the charts. Waiting for Kornacki to give the screen back Russial Maddow to gauge her constipation levels (especially since they just projected GOP control of Senate 51-49).
CNN’s analysts are treating the Harris campaign as if it has already lost — even though it has not, and it was always going to come down to swing states, and therefore to blue cities in those states, and therefore a slow count, all known in advance — preparing the way for tomorrow’s narrative: “Amazing turnaround!”
I think it is just about over now. I don’t see how Harris can overcome Trump leads in PA and WI.
And no address from Harris tonight. Shades of 2016.
There are serious 2016 echoes in Harris’ 2024 election night
https://apnews.com/live/trump-harris-election-updates-11-5-2024#00000193-0011-d97f-add3-21f7de290001
This could happen in theory, but given the margins everywhere else it is a much heavier lift from here than in 2020. Maybe the Democrat lawfare warriors are up to the challenge, but I kinda doubt it.
catharsis
AP just called Georgia for Trump.
Yep. And Georgia’s Fulton county (Atlanta metro area) DA Fani Willis won her re-election bid. / ;)
2024 vs. 2020. Trump widens leads (although we don’t know abou Blue Wall cities, from which we have not heard):
CNN’s presentation has been very good on this, pointing out 2020 v. 2024 at the county level.
CNN also points out Biden’s margin among Latinos in 2020 was 32%. Harris? 8%. (I know Latino ≠ Puerto Ricans, but still…).
UPDATE Trump is doing better than 2020 all across the board so far Politico:
But how could this be? The Mexicans and the Venezuelans and the Cubans and the Puerto Ricans are all “Latinx”!
I’m sure all the Latinx/Latines voted for Harris. The problem is that most real Latinos and Latinas ain’t Latinxes/Latines, which are smug (and racist/imperialist) PMC concepts imposed on them..
While election night was happening:
“U.S. Air Force will test-launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with a dummy hydrogen bomb on the tip from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.”
US Air Force’s Election-Night ICBM Test
https://consortiumnews.com/2024/11/05/us-air-forces-election-night-icbm-test/
https://www.vandenberg.spaceforce.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3953890/unarmed-minuteman-iii-test-launch-to-showcase-readiness-of-us-nuclear-forces-sa/
Darn.
Does this mean that Liz Cheney will still be unemployed next January?
IBKR trading now has Trump at 95% https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com
Suffice to say, the next 4 years will be nothing but F5 and doomscrolling, waiting to find out what fate is non immigrants living in the US will face. Urggghhhhh
MSNBC talking heads currently baffled at how Harris could’ve possibly did any better: “We got Queen Latifah, Beyonce, Taylor Swift! All the celebrities, it was a flawless campaign, perfectly done!”
If only those were the votes that counted…
Breaking my ~10-year celibacy from MSNBC infinitely boosts my respect for people like Greenwald, Halper/Maté/Useful Idiots, Taibbi/Kern, and the rest who force themselves to watch this stuff to comment on it.
Around 1:30a EST they spewed an astonishing number of claims about how “America’s high standing in the world,” “the great economy,” “the pre-Covid inflation levels,” “the strong US dollar” will all be at risk with a Trump victory.
The kicker was Joy Reid shaming Muslim voters by saying “Trump will give Bibi what he’s wanted for the last 30 years,” as if Biden hadn’t already done that.
Almost as bad was their prediction of “changed borders” in Europe–never mind NATO’s changing borders since Clinton.
Just nauseating.
Meanwhile, here in rural China, just a normal lovely autumn day. Having access to MSNBC today makes me almost wish VPNs weren’t a thing.
PA is getting close – just about over for Harris if it holds.
Yep. AP is saying that Harris must carry 2 of PA, WI, and MI, though all are now leaning Trump.
Hispanics saved Donald Trump’s ass tonight.
Trump ought to be kissing Mexico’s butt instead of Israel’s.
Now that made me laugh!
I never pictured Michigan going this hard for Trump. I don’t think there is a realistic path there for Harris anymore. If there is a path, it’ll have to be in PA or WI, but those aren’t looking so hot either.
The Arab-American vote matters.
Grim for the Harris campaign:
Now, if this weren’t Bertrand (or the Spectator) I’d give consideration to the possibility that they were trying to deke Trump into declaring victory prematurely, after which — very unexpectedly! — the Blue cities would come through with the necessary.
Now, if this weren’t Bertrand (or the Spectator) I’d give consideration to the possibility that they were trying to deke Trump into declaring victory prematurely, after which — very unexpectedly! — the Blue cities would come through with the necessary.
UPDATE Via CNN, PA: Trump, 51.1%; Harris: 47.8% (93% counted).
On another note, seems like ranked-choice voting had a bad showing tonight. Sad.
I’m tapping out. Thanks Lambert for staying up with us tonight.
Wondering what a Trump-Netanyahu world has in store for my country South Africa and the case against Israel at the ICJ.
On the upside, my conservative father asked me the other day if I think America is now an oligarchy. It was the first time since in my entire adult life (Im now 44 and he 69) that I could broach the topic of class war with him safely. He is Uber socially conservative, fundamentalist white Christian, and Trump now clearly evil in his eyes. My mother keeps shaking her head saying she doesn’t understand what is wrong with the Israelis and their bloodlust.
Our relationship has never been better. So maybe this is what it takes in terms of the masks coming off, for many previously ordinary conservative people to realise that they too are in fact being predated upon by a ruling class (from all sides)
Interesting times indeed.
Thanks for this. Maybe Trump will deliver more change than the Clintons, Obama, and Biden put together.
Nice post, and thanks. However, I’d be far more worried about Harris-Netanyahu trying to rule an unrulable area of the world. She would probably have continued Biden’s war-hawk behavior.
Certainly not saying Harris didn’t worry me, that was implied by the anecdote about my mom. But I’m pretty sure Trump is to the right of her on that anyway. I fear for my Muslim and Jewish friends. But who knows I’m always open to be surprised. Maybe he really is the peace candidate and the democrats didn’t just mistakenly allowe him to paint himself as that, to great effect.
In the convo with my dad I started one sentence with “I know you probably have very negative feelings about socialism…” and he interrupted me by saying “well the Scandinavians have social democracy…” and I literally nearly fell over.
As dark as things might seem, and maybe this is hopium, but I’m willing to die on this hill (it’s the only one worth dying on imo) … if people like him are starting to connect the dots between socialism and just plain human decency… then the fight that really counts, the one within our own communities, and families, is being won.
Now whether the good in us can ever really translate to political power, remains a question to be answered by the spiritual and political leaders of our time, and the future.
It’s a complex and maybe painfully slow thing, but if I can speak like this with my dad, (and tbh I’ve had to soften and be more understanding toward him in order to enable it, but he also did his own work and I’m frikken proud of him, even if I know we may only ever align on the most fundamental things)… if the progress happens around the kitchen table, then the changes we dream of for ordinary people are worth believing in no matter how far it might seem.
P.s If it turns out that republicans were right about Trump NOT being serious about political persecution, and deportation, etc. and he really is just destined to shake things up in a way that benefits the working man, I will feel even more poisitive about our collective future.
Scott Ritter suggesting there is some record shredding going on in the WH.
G. Nixon speaks of countless skeletons in the closets of the Democrats that could be investigated.
(But I really don´t believe any of this matters or will take place.)
Nixon quoting a joke (to describe his own position):
“I am a vegetarian not because I love animals but because I hate plants.”
Fox News just declared Pennsylvania for Trump. OMG. I am amazed…. And can now go to bed. The Fox guys are reeling. There is no path for Harris to win.
And 270toWin is going with that:
https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/president/
Trump
I’ve been wondering for a couple weeks if the red shift would be enough for trump to win the pop vote.
300 ev’s?
Emerson’s polling looks pretty good again this time.
From AP:
Whatever the postmortems are for this election for either loser that emerges, we’ll be reading about it for some time I think. There will probably be a lot of data to dive into, about voting patterns, ect. The mood seems increasingly sour for a Harris victory, but I’ll wait and see what shakes out. We don’t know until we know.
And I’d like to thank Lambert and NC for having this.
It’s looking like it’s outside the margin of lawfare.
I wonder how the Dem/TDS crowd will react?
Could it just be a peaceful transfer? A long time until inauguration.
I wonder how Rachel Madcow will react.
Fox just called PA for Trump.
It’s over.
Fox just called PA for Trump.
I guess he has won.
Rachel Maddow: ‘Nooooo! Not again!’
seriously?
🤣
another joke: “Gretchen Witless”
ABC, NBC and CBS have all called Pennsylvania for Trump.
Trump will speak. Joe Lauria “oh my God, he won. We have a winner.”
Best anecdote in the round (Gerald Celente): “I had a Russian girl-friend. She broke my heart.”
On PA from AP
https://apps.npr.org/2024-election-results/pennsylvania.html?section=P
At 72% in, Bucks County is at 50.3% Trump. Philly especially and Allegheny counties aren’t even close, Harris.
Donald Trump (GOP)
51.2% (down to 51.0% now)
3,336,263
Kamala Harris (Dem)
47.8% (48% now)
3,112,383
Other candidates
1.0%
62,472
A Senator doesn’t come cheap, eh?
I remember posting here eight years ago about Clinton deserving much of the blame for her loss, but this time, I think most of the blame belongs to the Democratic Party itself. I don’t think Harris was a strong candidate, and yesterday’s results were a best-case scenario in my opinion. She had no position on virtually every major issue and didn’t seem to talk about any issue. Why am I not blaming her? Largely because this isn’t news.
Despite being senator from the largest state and oodles of money, she dropped out of the primaries in 2020 without a single delegate. She was selected as Vice President apparently based upon her gender and race, and when Biden was forced out after a disastrous debate, she was the only choice to replace him. She peaked basically at the start of the campaign when Dems were excited and voters didn’t know her but as the campaign wore on, she appeared to do worse. Harris’ poor performance might have helped drag down Democratic senators in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Montana.
Harris is a bad candidate and any impartial observer should have recognized it. Had Joe Biden selected a generic Democrat as his running mate in 2020 or the party had primary elections in 2024, they would have had a stronger candidate yesterday, who would have beat an incredibly flawed Trump.
You may be right, but I think you overstate Trump’s flaws. I detest his politics, but he is a capable politician with an extremely skilled team. The Democrats would probably have had difficulties even with a decent candidate.
They for sure did everything they could to lose, notably, pander to the Bullwark types. When they knifed Bernie, was when they lost.
Google is definitely on Trump’s payback list-
‘Google has admitted that its search engine provided US voters with data on where they could vote for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris but failed to inform them of where they could cast a ballot for Republican Donald Trump.
Social media users noticed that when the phrase “Where can I vote for Harris?” was entered into Google, they were allowed to input their address to determine the closest voting location and refer to an interactive map of polling stations. However, if they typed in “Where can I vote for Trump?” no such information was given, and the user was only offered news stories about the election. Google has acknowledged the problem, and blamed the discrepancy on a technical glitch.’
https://www.rt.com/news/607147-google-vote-feature-favored-harris/
Is Google really the biggest corporate donor to the Democratic Party?
https://x.com/cb_doge/status/1853874621897912671
Google is Skynet though. I’m sure accomodations can be made.
I don’t love Google, but their explanation is that their algo reacted to “Harris” because there is a Harris County in TX and indeed that is the map shown. There is no Trump County, hence no map.
But it’s amazing how things like this always go the one way.
I have had enough for tonight. I went ahead and published the substack post that I had prepared in anticipation of a Harris defeat.
https://albrtsblog.substack.com/p/post-election-review-of-my-incorrect
I wish I thought that Democratic Party leadership would do what it didn’t do in 2016, which is to take a good look at what really happened, not tell itself and the public unbelievable fairytales like Russia ate my homework.
Harris was a terrible choice. (This I give a 50-50 shot. She isn’t HRC, who had too many secrets and too many dependents so couldn’t be described accurately.)
Telling people that things are great when they aren’t is not a winning strategy.
The donors are self involved idiots. Americans are not. Don’t listen to the former ever, but especially if the latter keep telling you that things aren’t working. Donor class has form when it comes to running things into the ground.
And Americans are also the ones who will still be in the country when those donors blow everything up, trying to wring every bit of profit out, the donors will leave you holding the bag.
But after forty years of donor service being the way ahead, I don’t expect too many to have that level of self awareness. Which is a long way of saying Lambert’s “too many rice bowls depend on not noticing”.
I think Harris will be easy for the Democrats to disavow. Nobody actually liked her, nobody actually likes California, and it’s not even clear she actually belongs to any of the identity verticals other than female.
Hey, what’s that elephant over there next to the couch. G E N O C I D E sank the Harris bid. And the campaign was worse than Clinton’s. I mean, Dick Cheney? That’s a special kind of dumb. But I have no doubt the brain trust who gave us that decision will come up with something to absolve themselves. There’s no way they’re going to lose their cushy consultancies and sinecures just because they failed and were totally wrong, again.
Fantastic to follow the thread; thank you so much. Appears the narrative has lost control, or is that they lost control of the narrative. Either way, carry on. Change is afoot…❤️🐴🧲
Nice post!
The election, as seen on Japanese news:
https://x.com/bbbnonnon/status/1853981933350666733
El Pais: “Authoritarian xenophobe Trump has won the elections” (Not in the headline but this was the first phrase in the article.-Doesn’t merit the link.
This is the LA Times subheading this Wednesday morning, after Trump Elected as 47th President;
“Donald Trump, the twice-impeached, criminally convicted former president who survived two assassination attempts during the 2024 campaign, has been voted back into the White House.”
Sounds like they’ve moved past denial and are at the anger stage …
Taibbi 3 min. ago
“Election Update 7: A Possible Ostensible Theoretical End
According to not quite enough media outlets, Donald Trump has taken Pennsylvania. According to others we still have to suck eggs until Thursday. I’m going to sleep”
https://www.racket.news/p/election-update-7-a-possible-ostensible
Trump wins presidency for second time, completing improbable comeback The Hill. Woo hoo.
#MSNBC still showing 266 … LOL … while Trump is speaking.
They’ll be getting drunk in Brussels today, especially Ursula. Bye bye Project Ukraine. And Starmer has just realized that he backed the wrong horse while trying to hobble Trump. Now he will be under the gun. I really though that this election would have been a lot closer and did not expect it to be called before today’s Links came online.
Thanks Obama ….
Yeah, especially for knifing Sanders in the back.
Lol and Harris could have done minimum wage.
But the goal of Democrats is to defeat the left. Mission accomplished. No left here.
And the whole energized progressive voter camp mandate and sold it for a personal lifestyle up grade in perpetuity. What if they are the shy Trumps out for payback?
Anywho … looking forward to Elon as Efficacy Czar cutting BIG Government fat so America can be Great Again thingy …
Is it too early to be excited for a Trump-less Republican and a Harris-less Democratic ticket in 4 yrs?
Not that the sycophant class won’t reduce our choices to Death or Ugu in 2028, too…
Pete Buttigieg – Jack Smith 2028
I have been watching MSNBC all night.
I used to watch it regularly before the Awakening that Covid brought.
I have to say, that is truly an insane asylum and they love to spew misinformation.
Now for a few minutes of light reading before bed, I will go to daily kos, my old friends, and see how things are going over there.
Good night everyone. What a timeline. I am going to be very busy.
Get an extra warehouse full of Thorazine ready. We are going to need it.
Do not forget to make a quick stop at Balloon Juice for more amusing PMC antics!
You might be needed there to treat all of the copium overdoses that they will be suffering from.
I used to read the daily kos when I first went on the Internet. Back when it was critical of presidents who supported genocide and armed invasions and suppression of domestic freedoms.
I don’t think I could handle it now.
THE WHO Eminence Front (Toronto 17th dec 1982) (Hat tip Glen)
Trump is speaking
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uT9s4BXcv6w
He just referred to MSNBC as MSDNC…
Gushing about Musk rocket landing. Sad that dude is gonna set policy. Gonna be a fun 4 years.
He seems a little melancholic. I think he enjoys the campaigning and rallies more than the governing.
I noticed he went with the “fighting for” every citizen language that Lambert so much enjoys.
Yeah. He seems to be sad that the campaign is over. He loves the crowds more than anything.
NYT predicts Trump will win popular vote by 1.2%:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html
Ode to Joy
Yes, because this greatly reduces the odds of Team Dem making serious efforts to contest the election. It may even make some cooler heads wonder about the efficacy of trying to delegitimate him, since 8 years of that backfired.
But then, horrors, they might have to think about delivering better policies!
I feel relief and I suspect I’m not alone
But will they (Donkeys) have the self-awareness to realize that policies that support genocide might need to be adjusted? You could make a case that this lost them the election. Michigan hasn’t been called as I write but Trump is up 2 full percentage points with 96% of the votes counted.
Iam not optimistic. Rashid Tlaib got re-elected, so that is good.
However, AOC did nothing, and Harris never waivered in her hidebound support for Israel with nary a cross word against Bibi.
That seems a bit low:. I’d bet it’ll be at least 2% or, likely, even close to 3% when everything is counted.
Well, that de-escalated quickly. The whole internet seems to have gone to sleep.
indeed.
I kinda expect fires by mid-day tomorrow.
For some reason had this running thru my head earlier tonight, as I was leaving a non-political event. Not thought of this track in years:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XJv4revLeE
Seems kinda fitting tonight.
I noticed how little I got in my inbox on a real time basis, even from The Hill, which pretends to be even-handed. The media types are indeed going to have to sleep it off.
Joe Biden is sleeping with a big smile on his face tonight.
“Nobody wants to be Kamala … I meant Xi Jinpeng!”
Dateline: November 7, 2024
White House press corps were taken aback when a visibly younger Joe Biden appeared at the podium to take questions on the 2024 Presidential election results, after Donald Trump’s victory.
At first, reporters were confused when a man appearing to be in his mid-50s jogged up to the mic. He had a semi-full head of hair, and his gait was steady and confident. An audible gasp was heard in the room when the reporters heard him talk and realized it was a younger Joe Biden, albeit possibly with a toupee.
The first question was from FoxNews. “Mr President, what do you think about last nights results?”
Mr. Biden started to reply that it was a shame, then broke out into a fit of laughter. He then apologized, saying that the stress of the past 30 days had gotten to him.
The next question was from CNN correspondent Alex Smith. Smith asked, “Mr. President, you appear visibly relieved and even younger – have you had plastic surgery?”
President Biden laughed and said, “hell no, I am just going to be spending a lot of time at the beach for the next few weeks.”
President Biden then proceeded to deliver a passionate speech on women’s rights, followed by a legally brilliant fifteen-minute defense of Roe. Wade delivered extemporaneously, with no teleprompter. Supreme Court observers noted that Mr. Biden’s defense introduced new legal theories, and Clarence Thomas immediately resigned from the Court after hearing it.
A stunned press corp could not muster another question. White House officials quickly whisked Mr. Biden offstage, but a rumor is spreading that he dropped down and did 100 pushups immediately after.
With his “garbage” remark, he managed to deal a serious damage to both Kamala and ….. Obomba. The Wizard of Kalorama is probably licking his wounds right now while having a realization that he would soon join the hasbeens of history just like the Clintons before him. If this were an RPG game, he’s lost 50% of his MP (Magic Points) overnight. Somewhere out there, Bernie Sanders too was having a good laugh at Obomba.
Another loser is probably Nancy Pelosi. From now on, she’ll have to work harder on her options porftolio, heck it’s possible she might have to take a loss here and there ;)
An extraordinary day. I’m taking a nap. Thanks to all commenters and readers.
Thank you for all your hard work Lambert! And thanks to the indefatigable NC commentariat as well.
Good job sir.
Thank you we should all be saying. It’s been a helluva day – and this is only the start.
“it’s a helluva start, it could be made into a monster, if we all pull together as a team”
Have a Cigar, Waters/Gilmour
At ease! Nice work, Sargeant! You get the gold medal.
Your humble blogger is still on if any of you want to send in post mortems. But thanks all!
Thank you for hosting this event!!! :)
Thank you Yves! NC is a national treasure.
Thank you Yves, Lambert and the commentariat. I am glad the Band-Aid was ripped off quickly. Much better than everyone stewing over it for days and weeks. I hope both sides are find a way climb down the hostility ladder and find a way to work together.
I was struck by how many voters in Florida and Missouri supported abortion rights. And Trump. It’s a funny old world.
Thank you Yves, this place has been a life-saver for my mental health.
My thanks for a great place to feel at home in expressing one’s thoughts and ideas.
My real joy will come from watching politicians in Europe wriggle and squirm as a new day dawns, and to watch how frenetically vdL tries to build an Alternate Reality in EU World.
I am especially delirious at the prospect of Saddiq Khan ‘forgetting’ that balloon; of Boris Johnson spluttering over his ‘comments’, and for David “Henry VII” Lammy to expunge his Twitter history…………and of course, to see Starmer fretting over whether than expiring 10-Year Agreement that gives UK access to Trident missiles is renewed before 31 Dec 2024…………
I do not expect any visits to Buck House – I suspect that regal presence that captivated Trump has left the stage and her dysfunctional successor is simply an NGO imposter with a branch office in Montecito
but…….Berlin, Paris, London, Kiev, Warsaw, Copenhagen, Amsterdam ……….oh to be a ‘fly on the wall’
Also it would be interesting to see how fast Kamala gets sidelined.
Macron tweeted congrats to Trump this morning and then immediately after that he’s spoken with Scholz and they are working together on a cunning plan for Europe.
https://x.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1854075136468521077
Eat horseflesh, Macron!
Thank you and well said, Paul.
Please keep us posted as wasps are chewed in .de. Danke vielmal.
truthout on Nov. 5th had this headline:
The Fight for the Presidency May Not End on Election Day
In a healthy democracy, the election would be over once votes are in and counted. That may not be the case this year.
https://truthout.org/articles/the-fight-for-the-presidency-may-not-end-on-election-day/
So next chapter: How are they gonna explain the loss this time? – the proof of a “healthy democracy”?
Of course one could hope AOC and more serious people understand the message and do something about it.
But that to expect woud be infinitely foolish.
Reads as if drafted before results were in. Does not seem to contemplate that Trump could cleanly win the popular vote.
The Spooks gonna spook!
Yep. As of 5:00 AM EST, “CNN has yet to project a winner in the race”.
Thank you to the NC community and a particular shout out to Jonathan Holland Becnel in Creole country.
Thank you, America, for sparing the rest of the world Liz Cheney and her bombs in the colours of the rainbow and whatever caption turns on the bien pensant liberals stencilled thereon, probably “abortion now, abortion forever” as that appears to be the only thing that motivates Democrats and their log rollers abroad.
Thank you Colonel, and I think we should take the foreign policy point to heart. Whether his motivation (seems to be that destroyed buildings are the thing that gets to him the most), Trump doesn’t want war.
Thank you, Lou.
The global south / zone b is not as exercised by Trump as Europe / PMC Europe.
Indeed, its very noticeable that he has plenty of admirers around the world. I think his big man/buffoon persona goes down very well in many cultures.
I don’t get the sense that outside of Europe, anyone is too worried about a Trump presidency. The big worry I think is what will happen before the inauguration. There are a lot of people inside and outside the US who may see this as their big chance to do something to stir things up – Netanyahu’s dismissal of his defence minister being maybe one example.
Many thanks, Colonel, to you!
And to Yves/Lambert for allowing me to speak!
Today is a glorious day!
Like Trump, America dodged a bullet with the Cheney/Harris Axis!
generally i do say, glad for this forum. it did and does give encouragement in theatres of despair. that not all my countrymen and women are idiotki. thank you, now we have much work to do, which should involve kiling a less few people.
I hope that presidential historian expert guy is enjoying his crow this morning. He was so sure, and arrogant.
Good luck to all.
Next soon: Iran retaliating Israel once US elections finished.
What a wonderful world…
Netanyahoo dismissed Gallant. And this has not gone well with the populace.
I’ve been wondering if the timing is significant. Netanyahu may feel he now has a window of opportunity to do what he really wants. Its a strange and disturbing world when someone like Gallant is seen as a ‘moderate’.
The only explanation i have seen was Gallant’s will to conscript amongst ultra-orthodox. Indeed, there might be something about the timing but I cannot speculate on that.
I was trying to think yesterday what constitutes a ‘best case scenario’ from this election, as all options to me seemed awful. But I guess a pretty clear victory by Trump and the Republicans is probably one of the ‘least worst’ in the sense that there is at least a 1% chance the liberal establishment might realise that they aren’t as smart as they think they are and start a process of rethinking who they are, and that a fairly secure Trump may feel strong enough to follow his instincts, rather than his more malign plutocrat supporters.
A good thing, IMO, is that contrary to some predictions or expected reactions the elections have gone relatively smooth and nobody seems to be contesting the results so far. Some constraints are still there and the US still does not apply to itself the same recipes applied in other countries.
I am amongst the happy to see the Democrats get their comeuppance, they absolutely deserved to lose. But there is otherwise nothing else to be happy about concerning this election result. Lesser of two evils, shit sandwich, however you want to characterize it. We all know nothing is going to change for most Americans and by that I mean that life will not improve for them in any significant way. Trump may move to end the war in Ukraine, I’ll believe it when I see it. And he supports the Israelis’ genocide in Gaza, I can’t forget that. So, while I’m happy that the Democrats lost, I am not happy that Trump won, if that makes any sense at all.
Kinda perfectly sums up my sentiment actually
Just like 2016, I will awake with joy that one of these awful people lost.
Poking around via search, a lot of MSM news entities have called the election for DJT.
I don’t see evidence of a KDH concession speech yet.
One wonders what that means, and hopes that it’s simply a case of “not being prepared for the actual outcome” (another echo of 2016) and scrambling to compose something that will not be a further embarrassment.
I guess that those Liz Cheney neocons failed Kamala.
Her best move in retrospect would have been to disown them. Say, “thanks, but no thank you – I cannot associate myself with people who value killing children as their highest priority.” Kamala was a victim of her own hidebound loyalty to the Biden administration.
BTW, knowing that Cheney is now disgraced and Jake Sullivan soon will be fired gives me unspeakable joy.
Yes, but Sullivan’s wife won in NH.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4974424-goodlander-succeeds-kuster/
They’re like those zombies that re-generate.
I just got a call from my ex-girl friend. The poor gal was very distraught. The kind of thing that happens to MSM addicts. I reminded her of the famous words of Lou Gorman who was the GM of a number of pretty good Red Sox teams. When at spring training one year he was criticized by a local sports writer for a trade-gone-sour Lou replied, “The sun will come up, I will go to lunch, and the sun will go down.”
$1B spent to make Trump more popular than ever. Well played!
Any updates on the CIA Democrats? I may have missed it in the 500+ comments…
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2024/09/17/hgaj-s17.html
Thank you.
Simplicius has a posting today with a map showing Kamala carried those states without Voter ID only………