Yves here. Anyone cozying up to Iran is an admission against interest for a US messaging outlet like RFE/RL and so should be taken seriously. The uptick in visible moves to improve Saudi-Iran ties looks to be yet another Trump-proofing move.
UPDATE 7:25 AM EST: A just-released story at the Financial Times provides additional confirmation. From Gulf states wary of return to Donald Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran:
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have signalled they remain committed to de-escalation with Iran as they prepare for the return of Donald Trump, hoping he can end a year of war in the Middle East but wary his unpredictability could inflame tensions further….
….the Gulf’s two powerhouses — Saudi Arabia and the UAE — have changed tack, seeking to engage with Tehran amid doubts about the US’s commitment to their security. This became more urgent after Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack against Israel triggered a wave of regional hostilities and heightened tensions between the US and Iran, with both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi seeking to remain on the sidelines….
In a sign of Riyadh’s desire to maintain its cold peace with Iran, Prince Mohammed on Monday hosted senior Iranian officials at an Arab-Muslim conference in Jeddah in which he accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. He also condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran, calling on the international community to stop hostile actions on Iranian territory.
Separately, Anwar Gargash, the UAE’s presidential adviser, told a conference in Abu Dhabi on Monday that the incoming Trump administration must pursue a “comprehensive” approach instead of “reactive and piecemeal” policies.
The comments underlined the shift in Saudi and Emirati thinking since they actively courted Trump after he took office in 2017 following years of Arab frustration with US policy swings and a sense of disengagement from the region.
By RFE/RL. Cross posted from OilPrice
- The Chief of Staff of Saudi Arabia’s armed forces made a rare visit to Iran, signaling a strengthening of ties between the two countries.
- The visit comes amidst a backdrop of shifting political dynamics in the Middle East, including the recent election of Donald Trump.
- The warming relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran could have significant implications for regional security and stability.
The general chief of staff of Saudi Arabia’s armed forces, Fayyad al-Ruwaili, met his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Baqeri, in Tehran during a rare visit on November 10.
Iran’s official IRNA news agency said they discussed the development of defense diplomacy and bilateral cooperation without offering any details.
Iranian media said Baqeri had discussed regional developments and defense cooperation with Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman al-Saud last year.
Ruwaili is only the second high-profile Saudi official to travel to Tehran since Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic relations after seven years following Chinese-brokered talks in March 2023. Previously, Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan visited Iran in June 2023.
Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia severed ties with Shi’a-dominated Iran in 2016 after its diplomatic compounds in Tehran and Mashhad were attacked by protesters over Riyadh’s execution of Shi’ite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.
The trip comes days after the election of Donald Trump, whose second term as U.S. president begins in January. He has pledged to bring peace to the Middle East, where U.S. ally Israel is engaged in wars against Iranian-backed groups in Gaza and Lebanon.
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said the timing of the trip was significant because it comes as various countries are preparing for a second Trump presidency.
He said the Saudis’ decision to send their top military official to Tehran “is a signal that they are committed” to the detente process that started last year and that “they don’t want Trump’s election to jeopardize the recently improving relations with Iran.”
Separately, Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman on the phone and discussed expanding bilateral relations, according to Pezeshkian’s office.
Trump had good relations with Persian Gulf Arab states in his first tenure in office and worked on normalizing relations between Arab states and Iran’s archfoe, Israel.
Saudi Arabia has not normalized relations with Israel but Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is said to have discussed the possibility of normalization with Saudi Arabia since 2021.
In another sign of warming relations, Saudi Arabia announced last month that it held military drills with Iran in the Sea of Oman.
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Maybe the Saudis should tell Trump that if the Israelis start a general war in the Middle East like they have been pushing for, that oil prices will shoot to the Moon and it will be worse than ’73. And that would totally derail any agenda that he had planned for reforms at home as all his time would be sopped up in the Middle East. Remind him too of how after Trump did all that stuff for Netanyahu, Netanyahu still did the dirty on him so he cannot be trusted and Trump needs to throw a fence around him
Good one. Nothing Trump would hate than to see this happen as it would drive hyperinflation at home.
Trump can easily order MBS to be assasinated like as had happened to Faisal in the 1970’s and replace him with his younger brother who is the saudi defence minister
The man who just visited Iran? That would surely delight the Trumpkins.
The warming of ties has been going on for a couple of years now. I suspect the main driver is not Trump, but KSA’s failure to strongarm Qatar over Iranian ties and its failure to suppress the Houthis. There may also be a growing awareness in KSA that Iran has the military capacity to do a lot of damage to Saudi infrastructure thanks to its new missile force. MbN is nothing if not a pragmatist. Or put another way, not everything that happens in the world is a reaction to the US.
I also suspect that as both countries have a strong interest in maintaining high oil prices, then Trumps likely ‘let it rip’ approach to domestic oil is seen as a significant threat. Even 1000 years of historical enmity can be ignored (temporarily) if there is sufficient money at stake. Both countries really need oil to stay above $80 a barrel.
“Or put another way, not everything that happens in the world is a reaction to the US. ”
Well said, but I do think the long-term relative decline in American power is a factor in Saudi thinking too. Not only is Iran’s ability to harm Saudi Arabia more evident, it is also less clear that the US can be counted on for protection.
Thank you and well said, Daniil.
My medical professional father worked in KSA, including as doctor to the royal family, for over two decades until a decade ago. As part of a modernisation and indigenisation programme developed by king Abdullah, over 100k young Saudis, male and female and, if coupled, their families were sent to study overseas. The more prestigious the institution, the bigger the scholarship / bursary. These youngsters may have observed an America in decline and taken the lesson home. It’s probably the same with the young Chinese and other Asian students in the US and even Europe.
“These youngsters may have observed an America in decline and taken the lesson home. It’s probably the same with the young Chinese and other Asian students in the US and even Europe.”
My litmus test for that is who drinks the “AI” Kool-Aide.
Thank you.
I should have added that when Abdullah and his sons explained this plan, which included dad in the audience, it was made clear that this was, in addition to reducing the costly dependence on foreigners, it was hoped that modernisation would be occur bottom up, not just top down.
The descendants of king Khaled, well educated, supported. The other princes, often uneducated and, frankly, lay abouts, either did not care or opposed.
Its always hard to know what is being discussed at decision making level in a country like KSA – I’ve no doubt you are right that they assess that the US is no longer the absolute dominant power in the region. I suspect they’ve always known that they could not depend on the US for protection (hence their gigantic arms purchasing).
One factor I think thats often overlooked is the failed attempt by KSA to destroy US oil fracking – the price war they launched (and lost) cost them many billions and seemed to have led to a significant reassessment of where they stand in the world and what their post-oil economy would look like. I think they are quite envious of the success of UAE in pursuing its agenda without needing too much oil money – they just aren’t quite sure how they can replicate that.
Agree with both your points, but on top of that, I’d also emphasize that the “Sunni vs. Shia” thing has always been overblown, at least in the West. There are definitely conflicts, especially when powers actively encourage them, but it’s more like a fault line (as in usually dormant) than an undying hatred.
In the grand scheme of things, the Saudis really only spent 1 generation trying to export Salafism (with mixed success). Even that was possibly as much an attempt to deflect & ride the tiger after the Great Mosque Siege in 1979, as opposed to something expansionist.
For Iran & Saudia specifically, my impression is that tensions are driven more by deep history and ethnic animus. But the very long-term trend is arguably towards easing because one side of that was always monarchy-driven Persian nationalism. Even if it’s not always pure, Iran has clearly been way more pan-Islamic since Khomeini, and I don’t know if most people realize how massively Shia politics and religious practice have changed since WWII.
Thank you and well said.
In addition, Islam is a sort of glue that binds a multi-ethnic state like Iran. Most westerners are not aware of Arabs in the south west, Baluchis in the south east, Azeris and Kurds in the north west, and Turkmens in the north east.
Thank you and well said, PK.
Just to add:
My family and I maintain ties with the families of dad’s former colleagues. One notices that the youngsters and even their parents are less interested in and enamoured with the US. The kingdom is changing.
Under the late king Abdullah, there was some rapprochement, including with the Shiites who live in northern KSA / on the depleting Ghawar oil field in Eastern Province. Abdullah’s mother was not a Saud, but a Rashid from Hail in Jabal Shammar, where Sunnis and Shiites overlap.
I’m thinking of going to work in the region due to changes in family circumstances over next year.
Whatever the state of the economy, I’m told by various expats that Saudi has improved a lot as a place to live. Opening the country up to non-muslim tourists seems to have changed things. I’ve been reading a few blogs of independent travellers there and they are glowing in praise for it as a place to visit, especially if you avoid the cities where there has been enormous destruction of traditional architecture.
Thank you, PK.
I have not been since covid, but have heard similar and been sent footage showing so.
Definitely with regard to architecture. Makkah, Madinah and Jeddah saw the destruction of buildings associated with the Hashemites in part as the Saud clan needed to erase evidence of the Hashemite presence in the Hijaz and to make way for shopping malls and offices owned by the Saud family members.
I apologise profusely to Yves in advance for lowering the tone. One bit of evidence that KSA is changing: Women can travel on their own there . Visas are not difficult to obtain. Riyadh, Jeddah and the Red sea resorts are becoming hot spots for Saudis, not just men, to fly in SWers (FMTY: fly me to you).
Thank you, PK.
This rapprochement could feature in one of Trump’s dealmaking bibles.
Thank you, Yves.
This post is timely as it allows me to relay a tidbit from yesterday evening.
I caught up with a friend, former diplomat, including at the European Commission, and now at a ratings agency. Said ratings agency advises the US government and reckons that Iran does not have the military, technological and economic capacity to sustain a war with Israel and take the war beyond trading conventionally armed missiles and will have to rely on proxies. It was implied that Israel and the US could (and should) deal a knock out blow as soon as practicable.
I asked where this analysis came from. It came from analysts who are sometimes ex Fed and Bank of England officials, not former military, scientific and diplomatic professionals. From what I gather, there are lots of alpha males, friend’s words, in grumpy’s senior ranks. One wonders if this is clouding judgment.
I ventured that there are no easy wars left to fight and left it at that.
We also talked about sanctions on Russia, not working, and Brexitannia, fcuked, and getting out of the City.
I think getting to KSA and Israel detente is neocon dreaming.
A land/air war over/in Iran is subject to the same warnings as a land war in East Asia, maybe worse, distance and infrastructure.
There is geography, which drives logistics, that is having the right people and things in the right place, far away and hard to get there, also the far away is in range of interdiction attacks.
US/Israel at the moment lack the aerospace weight to neither deliver a knock out blow nor a sustained bombing/missile campaign against Iran. The resistance would enjoy standing on the sidelines of that quagmire.
A ground campaign is far less possible for US and allies. US could go back to shotting forth Al Nusra, but Iran could blunt that.
Geopolitical view: Iran is align as major player of the crescent of the Eurasian heartland, naturally align with Russia and China.
KSA has limited choice, while the militarists of U.S. need to engage at the East side of the Eurasian heartland toward PRC and DPRK.
I doubt there is much future in relying on FDR’s promised security.
KSA should blunt the al Nusra and related AQ remnants, pulling the Emirs along.
US shock and awe air war is oversold.
Would the bankers underwrite a U.S./Israel multi trillion dollars at risk Iran project?
Who is “grumpy”, Colonel?
MBS also publicly stated yesterday that the Israeli government is committing genocide in Palestine and warned Israel to not attack Iran. BBC frames it as a message to Trump. RFI takes a swipe at Iran through a quote from the Lebanese PM.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp8x5570514o
https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20241111-saudi-arabia-decries-israeli-military-action-amid-calls-for-ceasefire-in-gaza-lebanon
Merci, Bugs.
The NC community who understand French may be interested in this analysis of the French MSM’s coverage of Ukraine, https://blogs.mediapart.fr/pr-djamel-labidi/blog/280723/une-monstruosite-mediatique-lci. One can swap Russia for any other country / community considered an adversary, including Iran.
Another interesting thing about that article, which I’ve noticed in many places: The Abraham Accords included four countries: Bahrain, UAE, Morocco, annnnnd… Sudan.
Sudan is now being torn apart in a civil war as brutal as the one in Gaza though, which obviously doesn’t say much for the supposed benefits of normalizing with Israel. So more Israel-aligned media seems to have settled on just omitting that inconvenient fact.
The fact that Moroccan and Bahraini cops now have to teargas large pro-Gazan protests on the regular is another inconvenient fact, but at least for now, it’s simpler not to report the protests than the so-called “peace deal”.
Thanks Colonel. That’s a great summary of a sea change in French media and it’s become really concrete since Ukraine. They even translate the Atlanticist SEO keywords like “unprovoked full-scale invasion” or “Iran-backed militas” into French. I sadly can’t even listen to France Info on the radio anymore without getting infuriated. France Culture radio was a last bastion of sanity and even it has fallen. Even France Musique ran a silly series called “Ukrainian Music: A Muzzled History”
https://www.radiofrance.fr/francemusique/podcasts/serie-musique-en-ukraine-une-histoire-muselee
– which was basically a revisionist history of “Ukrainian” music (it really depends on what country the ethnicity they now call Ukrainian was in, at the time), with white-out of the Russians.
It’s 24/7/365 BS.
Merci, Bugs.
Your reaction is echoed in francophone Africa, including Mauritius, where my family is from, where the natives are giving up on French media.
I find the rolling news channels unwatchable unless Gerard Araud and Dominique de Villepin are on.
Trump is going to have to come to terms with the fact that the US has declined as a major world power and is less influential on the world stage than it was than even his first term. Trump may be hoping to use the Saudis against Iran, but that ship has long sailed.
The Biden regime was clearly unable to do so and the inept Tony Blinken went around burning bridges with most of the rest of the world. If anything, any future State Department will have to mend fences, something neither party seems to be capable of doing. I doubt Trump has the skill to understand that, nor will anyone he appoints.
The US led war against Ansar Allah / the Houthis was a bust and Saudi Arabia can see that. They can also see that their future increasingly lies with China, Russia, and a rapprochement with Iran. These nations have far more to offer than the US can offer Saudi Arabia. War with Iran does not serve Saudi interests, as the Iranians can easily destroy Saudi oil infrastructure.
Militarily, the US has proven far weaker than most of the world expected. The US spent years bombing Ansar Allah with no success with the Saudis and Operation Prosperity Guardian is a failure. The fact that they are on track to lose against the Russians adds to this sign of American decline. The inability of US military equipment such as the Patriot and failures of US supplied equipment to Israel is not lost on Saudi Arabia. It’s also become clear the US is likely to lose a war with Iran, should it be foolish enough to start one.
Furthermore, the US has also burned bridges more with the Saudis with its fracking, and attempts to control the world’s oil prices (that release of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves and the failed attempt at a Russian price cap were very poorly received). The freezing of the Russia foreign reserves also no doubt had a chilling effect in Saudi Arabia, as they are asking if their money could be frozen or outright stolen too.
The genocide is having a huge impact on the Arabic street. Ansar Allah is seen as the heroes fighting for Palestine. The Arabic world cannot be seen as openly allying with Israel and the US. The public outrage could result in governments being toppled. I am very skeptical that the US elite understand these issues, and frankly, lack the intellectual curiosity to do so.
Basically, the US seems to be in a position where its leadership has been responsible for the decline of the US and is too inept at statecraft to do anything except to accelerate that decline. I am very skeptical that Trump, nor the people he will appoint, fully understand the issues that I have highlighted. He will make a bad situation worse.
I would be interested in any insights the NC commentators might have regarding the evolving Saudi-China relationship. Is it still very marginal or something that might affect the political environment as much as the economic one?
Its rapidly growing and going to play a big role in the future. China is now a key customer for the Saudis.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/saudi-arabia-stays-top-crude-supplier-china-2022-russian-barrels-surge-2023-01-20/
https://www.thinkchina.sg/politics/symbiosis-china-leading-customer-and-saudi-arabia-vital-oil-supplier
Likewise, the Saudis will be reliant on China for imports as well.
China played a key role in negotiating the rapprochement between the Saudis and Iran, a process that the Russians began.
In the long run, China will play a large role in helping the Saudis diversify their economy.
Thank you, Elissa.
I think it’s at the economic, including tourism, and technical / scientific and infrastructure, including communications*, cooperation stage, but is evolving, especially as KSA wants to diversify its economy. China is patient and playing a long game. The rapprochement with Iran shows confidence in that relationship.
*The killer beepers may have provided Israel and its western backers with a tactical victory and an orgasm, let’s put it crudely in language these people understand, but the longer term consequences will favour China.
https://www.mofa.gov.sa/en/ministry/statements/Pages/Joint-Statement-at-the-Conclusion-of-the-Saudi-Chinese-Summit.aspx provides overarching details.
A decade ago, I would not have imagined that by now. This said, I remember the late king Abdullah at some summit in east Asia and his talks on the side with the Chinese delegation. That was a hint of what’s to come.
Thing is, this was such an obvious thing for the Chinese, the Iranians and the Saudis to do, exactly like Russia getting closer to China, or Belarus getting closer to Russia. Is the US State Department such a complete clown-car that they had no idea this was going to happen? Or have they actually got some sort of a plan behind what seems a consistent wipe-out for their projects?