Yves here. Thomas Neuburger ruminates on Ryan Grim’s election predictions. The big takeaway is neither Trump nor Harris would be able to do any where near as much as their opponents suggest. However, there is plenty of scope for increased harm in the international arena. It would not be hard to see either of them compensating for domestic frustrations by trying to take reckless bold moves abroad.
By Thomas Neuburger. Originally published at God’s Spies
Many people have made election predictions (some in abundance), but few have looked at the post-electoral state. What happens if Harris wins? What does a Trump II world look like?
I offer below what Ryan Grim sees post-November. I think in the main he’s right. His virtue is that he avoids conventional thinking and looks at what’s real.
The whole piece went out to his Drop Site News subscribers and is also available there. But I’d like to offer it here; I know our readers are thoughtful and decidedly unconstrained by conventional ways. No one wants to fall prey to “what everyone knows to be true” without close examination.
Grim’s analysis, with his permission, is printed in full below. Some comments first.
A Pyrrhic Victory
Grim holds that if Harris wins, it will work like a loss. First, she’d likely rule without House and/or Senate support.
Without the Senate, Harris will have a hard time confirming a dog catcher, let along [sic] a judge or a cabinet nominee. With the Senate but without the House, she won’t be able to get any of her agenda through. Worse, the debt ceiling will be hit in January, before she’s even inaugurated.
Would Democrats, especially decidedly unpopulist ones, be willing to take advantage of the advantages that populism-by-executive order confers? They haven’t yet. Grim is doubtful they will — to do so, Harris would have to find “populist Jesus” — and I would agree. Democrats are self-defined as the party of status quo Jesus. “Nothing will fundamentally change,” we’re regularly told, a contrast to the change their electoral opponents would bring.
For that plan to work, people have to like what they see. Playing it safe in a land this dissatisfied won’t produce lasting wins.
Grim also thinks a Harris win now tees up a Republican win in 2028. A status quo powerless Democrat with no personal base of support (“support for Kamala is more accurately described as opposition to Trump and support for Democratic policies generally”), ruling a party reduced to “an upper-middle-class center,” is not a winning combination, especially if it follows a term where little gets done.
What Kind of Dictatorship?
After a Trump win, many predict a dictatorship. Grim disagrees:
Even with two new justices, the Supreme Court is not willing to turn power over to him. Trump is their tool to wield power, and they will be content to see him retire from the field. Trump also lacks the support of the military leadership. Without the court or the military, he has no path to hold on to power illegally.
“Without the court or the military” — sounds pretty third-world to me. That’s how Egypt is ruled. Just wanted to point that out.
The Realignment
This will take much more thought, but the start point is here:
[T]he class realignment already underway … leaves a coalition of the working class and the super rich in the Republican party. That’s an extremely dangerous coalition, and while it will be hampered by Trump’s defeat, it would be structurally strengthened longterm by a Harris victory[.]
What it looks like when all the ripe apples have dropped is anyone’s guess. Grim thinks its possible that Republicans, if Democrats keep shedding their base, could “lock in generational power” in 2028.
We’ll see if that’s true: it’s a “dangerous coalition” indeed. What happens with working class Sanders populists — yes, there are many; Sanders might have wiped the floor with 2016 Trump — is clearly up in the air. Rich material for a novelist.
The NatSec state
Here Grim is silent, but we don’t have to be. At this point, no president can oppose the cemented-in apparatus, our heroes who “maintain security.” (Trump on Joe Rogan talked about how he was convinced not to release the JFK files as he first intended. Listen between the lines and you hear, “Sir, you don’t want to do that.”)
To the extent there’s real rebellion in the U.S., there will be real repression, more than what’s already here. What elites do abroad, they will do at home, given a sufficiently media-marginalized target. (The military calls this “preparing the battlefield.”)
There are only two end points historically for this kind of collision — a state in chaos (think ‘60s and ‘70s rebellion) or a locked-down, Stasi society, surveilled and policed. Ask yourself, how would today’s guardians of security handle the 1960s? Gloves on or gloves off?
Now for Grim’s analysis. If you want just his bottom line, skip down to “What It Means”. Enjoy.
Ryan Grim’s election predictions
What will realistically happen if Harris or Trump wins
Just like Jeff Bezos, I would never tell you who to vote for. You don’t need that from me anyway. What I can do though is offer a few thoughts on what might happen if either candidate is elected, which I haven’t seen anybody try to do with any seriousness.
According to Elon Musk, if Kamala Harris wins, there’ll never be another election, and according to lots of Democrats, if Trump wins, he’ll turn into a dictator. Both are wrong. The truth is more complicated but not necessarily less frightening. In tonight’s newsletter, I’ll game out what that might look like. (Scroll down for that.) …
If Kamala wins:
Congress goes
If Harris wins, the chance she also takes Congress relies on a number of miraculous upsets. Joe Manchin is leaving the Senate, and his Senate seat is leaving the Democratic caucus for the rest of all of our lives. That takes Dems from 51 down to 50 seats. Jon Tester won extremely narrow races in Montana in 2006, 2012, and 2018, and he’s about as good a rural politician as you’re going to find, but Montana’s rightward drift might be too much for him to overcome. Polls have him down. If they’re right, he’s toast, and that brings Democrats down to 49 seats.
To get back to 50 – which would let Tim Walz break ties – they’d need to hold on to Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin (all doable, even likely) but also win in either Florida or Texas – or Nebraska.
If you’ve been following our coverage of the Nebraska Senate race, you know independent populist Dan Osborn has a genuine shot at upsetting the incumbent Republican. Internal polls I’ve heard about from both sides, however, suggest Trump’s ads tagging him as a “Democrat in disguise” may have done enough damage to blunt his momentum. If he wins though, I’m confident he’d caucus with Democrats, and that would make a majority. But he’s still a longshot.
Colin Allred, the former NFL linebacker and member of Congress, has a credible chance of beating Ted Cruz. The question will be whether pollsters missed an influx of Democratic donors to the Lone Star state. If they did and the polls are slightly off, he could win. But he’s also a longshot.
Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell could theoretically pull off an upset in Florida, but man is that hard to see. So Democrats would need one of those four longshots—Montana, Nebraska, Texas, or Florida—to come through.
And then they’d have to win the House, too.
Without the Senate, Harris will have a hard time confirming a dog catcher, let along a judge or a cabinet nominee. With the Senate but without the House, she won’t be able to get any of her agenda through. Worse, the debt ceiling will be hit in January, before she’s even inaugurated.
Bankruptcy?
With control of Congress, Republicans will play economic-armageddon brinksmanship, take a chunk out of the global economy, get our credit-ratings downgraded, and probably extract a chunk of fiscal flesh in exchange for simply agreeing to pay the bills that are due. The other possibility, that we actually go over the cliff and get a mini or major financial crisis can’t be ruled out.
Antitrust
Harris will then be left to govern strictly from the executive branch. She’d probably have to keep Lina Khan, whether she wants her as chair of the FTC or not, since Republicans wouldn’t confirm a replacement anyway. Her victory would be meaningful for climate action, as she’d continue to disperse and execute the clean energy policy and subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act, while Trump would smother it (or send it all to Elon Musk?).
Taxes
Trump’s tax cuts also expire during Harris’s first two years in office, meaning she’ll negotiate their extension. There, she has the advantage, because if she does nothing, the old tax policy snaps back into place. Her ability to do anything at all her first two years would be limited to this tax realm and, potentially, immigration. She’s likely to sign a tough border and immigration bill into law.
It’s hard to see how she emerges from this two years with anything higher than an approval rating in the low-30s. Given she has no organic base of support—support for Kamala is more accurately described as opposition to Trump and support for Democratic policies generally—it’s impossible to say how low her floor is. We might find out.
Ukraine
Russia is making major advances in Ukraine and the U.S. public is no longer interested in the war. Harris will probably have to end it with some sort of ceasefire/non-deal that leaves Ukraine in a wildly worse off position than they’d have been in if they’d made a deal in early 2022—a deal the U.S. scuttled at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives. Or she could prove she’s a tough commander-in-chief—leader of the “most lethal military” ever, as she puts it—by escalating the conflict and striking deeper inside Russia, risking nuclear war. Let’s hope it’s not that. The same dynamic could be at play with China, with much of her party leadership egging on confrontation.
The Mideast
I interviewed Israeli journalist Amir Tibon recently, who said that Netanyahu made a bet sometime around December that Trump would be elected president and therefore he was willing to take whatever minor grief he suffered from Biden for ignoring all the U.S. entreaties to protect civilians, allow in humanitarian aid, and negotiate in good faith toward a ceasefire. There was little grief. But, said Tibon, if Harris wins, Netanyahu will be exposed politically, and he predicted his government would collapse “within months.” A Harris win would signal to Netanyahu’s coalition partners that two of their big dreams will be at least put on hold for four years. Those two major ambitions, Tibon said, are reform of the Israeli courts in order to subsume them to the judiciary, and the Israeli settlement of Gaza. With those ambitions stymied, Netanyahu’s coalition becomes untenable.
Foiling Netanyahu’s bet on Trump is the most persuasive case I’ve heard for a vote for Harris. The problem, though, is what comes next. Tibon is confident a candidate from a coalition that does not includes the ultra-orthodox or settler movements would triumph and that any new government that replaced Netanyahu would be similarly supportive of the various Israeli war efforts, but more willing to cut a ceasefire-for-hostages deal. But I checked Tibon’s theory with people in Israel to the right of Tibon, and they agreed that the Netanyahu government would indeed fall and new elections would be called—but that Netanyahu would win those new elections.
Abortion Rights
Harris wouldn’t be able to get anything through Congress, but having Democrats control the Justice Department and Health and Human Services would put some of the brakes on right-wing states pushing ahead with increasingly aggressive abortion restrictions, including laws that make it a crime to “traffick” a minor across state lines to get an abortion. Such laws are plainly unconstitutional, but Trump’s DoJ would do nothing to stop them, whereas a Harris administration would.
Midterms
Every president faces brutal headwinds in their first midterm, and Republican gains are the most likely result of the 2026 midterms. The only pickup opportunities in the Senate would be in Maine and North Carolina, and both would be unwinnable in a Republican reaction year. The good news for Dems is they don’t have to defend many seats – Georgia and Michigan – but they’d still fall that much further behind in the House.
2028
Republicans would be the heavy favorites in 2028. Democrats seem to hate primaries, so maybe Harris doesn’t face one even if she’s in the low 30s, with Democratic rivals holding their fire for 2032. The most likely outcome, then, of a Harris victory in 2024 is a Republican sweep in 2029, giving them a trifecta and the opportunity to lock in Supreme Court control for several generations. That court could issue abortion-related rulings that would make Dobbs look downright liberal.
If Trump wins:
Let’s take seriously what Trump will actually do, versus what his opponents claim he’ll do. Some of the more lurid warnings, I think, are wildly overblown. But not all of them. It’s extremely likely he will assign significant resources toward a roundup of immigrants, and will do so in a flamboyant fashion, deploying the military if he can get away with it. If he’s extra lucky, there’ll be mass resignations of military brass as a result, allowing him to elevate loyalists.
Stephen Miller, a deeply dangerous and strategic man, will have immense power. Trans rights will be in the crosshairs and so will abortion rights.
I’m less worried about his promise to add a 20 percent tariff to everything. He continues to speak highly of Robert Lighthizer as his top trade adviser, and Lighthizer is very good at what he does. Lighthizer was Trump’s United States Trade Representative and lefty trade hands and unions were generally supportive of his approach, even as they had some disagreements. If Lighthizer guides trade policy, it won’t be reckless.
Trump’s tax cuts from his first term will also come up for renewal, and I’d expect he’ll successfully extend and deepen them, particularly for the rich and corporations.
He will fire an enormous number of federal employees. Whether he can hire enough to replace them is a different question, but at minimum he’ll be able to break a lot of federal agencies.
He’ll go after the American university system with a vengeance. Look at what Chris Rufo has managed to do in Florida under Ron DeSantis for a flavor of what Trump could do nationally.
He will rescind or simply not deploy much of the climate spending included in the Inflation Reduction Act. He hates eclectic vehicles, though his alliance with Elon Musk may protect some of that.
Supreme Court
Sam Alito and Clarence Thomas will retire, allowing Trump to appoint at least two more justices.
Trump, however, will not have the capacity to become a dictator. Even with two new justices, the Supreme Court is not willing to turn power over to him. Trump is their tool to wield power, and they will be content to see him retire from the field. Trump also lacks the support of the military leadership. Without the court or the military, he has no path to hold on to power illegally.
Voters will reject his displays of extremism at the polls in the 2026 midterms, likely delivering the House and Senate both to Democrats. They’ll impeach him immediately, just as Republicans will impeach Harris, but neither effort will have enough support in the Senate to go anywhere. In 2028, Republican voters will choose between J.D. Vance and opponents like Ted Cruz (unless he loses his Senate race, of course).
The economy will probably take a cyclical downturn toward the end of Trump’s term, and he’ll be deeply unpopular. Democrats would be favored to win in 2028 and likely hold Congress, too.
Mideast
It’s impossible to predict what Trump will do here. On the one hand, he calls himself “the candidate of peace”—on the other, he has said Biden’s biggest problem has been that he’s been too tough on Netanyahu and he should let him take the gloves off. Trump has been mad at Netanyahu for congratulating Biden on his win, but he knows Bibi has been rooting for him and doing what he can to help him win, and in Trump’s world alone, that means a lot to him. You know Trump as well as I do, I’ll let you guess on this one.
Ukraine
The conventional wisdom is that Putin will strike a deal to end the war if Trump wins, on favorable terms to Russia, given how much ground they’ve gained. On Ukraine, the CW is probably right.
China
Trump will do way more jawboning of China than Harris would, but he seems to have no appetite for a war. Let’s hope that prevails.
What It Means
So far, we’ve talked about the near-term future relying on historical precedent. That only gets us so far. We also have to look at the coalitional trends underway and ask how a victory by each candidate influences each. If Harris wins, Democrats will be rewarded for having skipped the nominating process and overseeing a genocide in Gaza. They will have done so while embracing the Cheneys and other neocons expelled from the MAGA coalition. They will now have to be understood as a faction of the Democratic coalition. With Democrats already becoming increasingly militaristic, that only pushes the party further toward a confrontational imperial foreign policy.
Harris also ran detectably to Biden’s right when it came to labor, antitrust, and the economy. Winning on that message could convince Democrats that their dalliance with economic populism was unnecessary, which would speed up the class realignment already underway, with more working class voters of all races and genders feeling unrepresented by Democrats, who come to fully stand in for coastal elites. With Democrats representing an upper-middle-class center, that leaves a coalition of the working class and the super rich in the Republican party. That’s an extremely dangerous coalition, and while it will be hampered by Trump’s defeat, it would be structurally strengthened longterm by a Harris victory—unless Harris somehow finds populist Jesus like Biden did. There is still a strong faction of populist-progressives in the Democratic coalition, and Harris’s victory would not be the final word. But a Democrat who comes after Harris could be facing nearly insurmountable odds if Republicans are able to lock in generational power in 2028.
The short version is that there’s reason to be optimistic that Harris may win. There’s reason to be scared if she does. Or doesn’t. Hope that helps.
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Man, and here I thought everything was gonna change…
DJT and Bobby Kennedy Junior know, exactly, which entities murdered JFK and Bobby Kennedy ……………. more than sixty odd years ago….
Shortly after noon on November 22, 1963, President John F. Kennedy was eliminated.The USA, itself, had been decapitated.
I was thirteen years old, and I knew that my world ……….
Ukraine in Russian view represented by Mr Medvedev drawed a similar between possible Trump 2nd term with Kennedy if he tried too much to have peace. Meanwhile Poland is calling 230.000 young people to be prepared for army in 2 months (Jan 20 inauguration) and Donald Tusk was in Belgrade a week ago, “biological” tech corporation signaling possible change in Polish stand on Ukraine and / or Germany Poland stand on the way out of the Ukraine conflict. EU entrance for Serbia also mentioned. That is in preparation for Nato without the Trump’s United States.
Zelenski openly offered Trump Ukraine natural resources as a price for US continuation in supporting the war reported by the NY Times.
“The conventional wisdom is that Putin will strike a deal to end the war if Trump wins, on favorable terms to Russia, given how much ground they’ve gained. On Ukraine, the CW is probably right.”?
Donald Tusk went to Belgrade because Vucic needed an excuse for not going to BRICS summit, after Putin publicly invited him. EU entrance for Serbia could be mentioned gazillion of times, but it was a thing never meant to happen before Serbia is additionally reduced in size.
Without the Senate, Harris will have a hard time confirming a dog catcher, let along [sic] a judge or a cabinet nominee. With the Senate but without the House, she won’t be able to get any of her agenda through.
She has an agenda?
Who knew?
However the election goes, I see / hope for a needed return to labor by Dems, esp in states like Kentucky. I also see / hope for a return to rural America by Dems – ignoring these high value voters is what made a Trump possible. It won’t be about policy as much as mending fences, reconnecting at the grassroots level. Policy will come after true understanding of what working people are up against, especially in small town and rural America.
“What we’re up against is an extractive economy, run by a tiny minority of the wealthiest people, and from that the impoverishment, poisoning and pollution of our natural world, the complete disintegration of all human community, and damage to individuals and families.” Wendell Berry, “The Need to be Whole.
Whichever candidate wins there will be massive discontent. At some point, one of the 2 parties will – reluctantly – give the people what they need.
That’s my vision anyway…
Best…H
DC Dems will blame everyone but themselves.
First target will be the “garbage” salt-of-the-earth who used to be the foundation of the Dem. Party
I don’t have your confidence that any positive changes will come about. At this point in its history the United States is irredeemable.
Hank,
Are you in contact with the Kentucky Party or have you heard of them?
NC posted about the Skunk 🦨 Party and that’s where I found out about them.
Cheers!
I don’t know them, please lmk how to find them.
Thanks!
Best…H
Naked Capitalism’s Skunk Party Manifesto Finds a Home in the New Kentucky Party
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/naked-capitalisms-skunk-party-manifesto-finds-a-home-in-the-new-kentucky-party.html
The only thing that gives me hope if Kama-lama-ding-dong wins is that I don’t sense the same bloodthirsty, let’s overcompensate for being the “weaker sex” by going full-on war queen Hillary mentality.
Kammy seems to be a bit more of a nurturer, but then again I can see her getting steam-rolled by the neocons. Let’s hope and pray that law school taught her to be tough and aggressive against an adversary that has no morals or scruples. And I ain’t talkin’ ’bout Putin!
The Democrat neocons don’t need her to be bloodthirsty personally. They will pour the blood from the empty vessel of her presidency.
Keeping score –
Biden/Ding Dong administration wars: 2
Trump administration wars: 0
Not that I’m all that sanguine that the total would stay at 0 were Trump elected again. I do think his instinct is to make a deal though rather than murdering people to prove he’s “presidential”.
Well considering her actions, I think her going all-Hillary is more likely. IMHO, whatever you’ve seen in public from her is meaningless. Also, I have no faith she will be calling the shots. She is really an empty pantsuit.
I’m probably too optimistic and projecting my own desire for a semi-sane human being to appear, even if it’s one who laughs like a hyena and did spend the last 4 years doing nothing to restrain anything.
Maybe I’m hoping for a change of heart – did a bit of the attitude of the Wizard of Kalorama rub off on her? He always seemed at least a bit restrained when it came to starting WWIII. He insisted on a Congressional vote on getting involved in Syria (of course the CIA had other ideas) and that was the last time I recall any president giving 2 whits about the Constitution. Or maybe he just had the brains to use that vote for cover to force the warmongers to back down.
what we saw from her here as DA and then AG was a pantsuited Cop, a Hillary if you will. Mnuchin bought her off, she kept a proven innocent man behind bars and of course there’s the jailing Black and Brown mothers for their kids truancy she is so proud of. I wish she did have an iota of nurturing in her. If it lessened the horror in Palestine it would be a blessing, but going on basically her entire life up until now she’s a sociopath who would happily order air strikes on orphanages.
I question whether either side is as committed to their candidate as they seem to be. For Dems the inept Harris is more of a symbol–both the anti-Trump and the potential first woman president. Her personal failings don’t seem to matter.
For Repubs it’s “2016 called and wants its grocery prices back.” If, as the Dems once said, it’s the economy stupid then why would you vote for four more years of the same? And the immigration argument is about the economy too since working class people face more job competition.
Both sides are trying hard in their marketing to make heroes out of people who aren’t. But then how many of our presidents have risen above mediocre? The money driven system is corrupt but before that machine politics held sway–also corrupt. Maybe the situation across all classes will become bad enough that the bickering will have to stop.
Personally I’m looking forward to the couple days of reprieve I’ll get from the onslaught of political ads and donation requests (and LOL, I’m getting them from both sides these days) before the losings side’s team can re-tool for the next round of ____ derangement syndrome that is sure to follow. Elections should not be this mentally taxing! …And I’m firmly in the none of the above category.
I can’t do much about the flood of ads except on Faceborg I report every one of them as spam or a fraud. It stopped them pretty quickly.
Both candidates will be an absolute disaster for America. One plus for a Trump win is he will not be able to run for President again and so hopefully we will see a subsidence of TDS. Of course Democrats will find some other boogeyman to obsess over since they need that in the stead of real governing. Trump, of course, will be Trump, which is bad.
I think people underestimate just how bad a Harris presidency will be. The woman is absolutely soulless, and her soullessness tends toward cop brutality. She has no belief about anything. I think honestly a Harris presidency will in the final analysis be worse for the Democrat Party than a Trump presidency will.
I agree, it amounts to rearranging deck chairs and all that. .
I would say that it doesn’t really matter who the figurehead is, the policies are determined by the “donor class” (oligarchy). Just look at all the money pouring in from oligarchs, including Israeli oligarchs like the Adelsons.
Of course, Israel is never accused of interfering, they just project it on Russia and sometimes China.
The fact that the article mentions what the richest oligarchs in the world think is telling. Speculating based on political rhetoric and BS may not prove very helpful. People seem to forget the most basic elements of the powers of Congress and the pres
The DT, despite the excuses and wishful thinking, continued the foreign policy of his predecessor, with only a couple of minor changes. He recognized Golan, moved US embassy to J-lem, bombed Syria, tried to provoke a war with Iran. As prof. Richard Wolff said about domestic economic issues and the first DT regime: “Trump had four years, but he didn’t do shit”. Of course not, he never intended to, but gullible and desperate people WANT to believe in their savior, like a medieval serf. The illusion of choice must be maintained, and that is the job of the oligarchy-owned mass media cartel. (MiniTrue)
But KH is too phony, not ugly enough to be an honest representation and face of US policy. If we must have a genocidal sociopath as POTUS, it should be DT. Although a lifelong liar and con-man, he is a more honest and accurate representation of the USA: ignorant, bloated, loud-mouthed, racist, elitist, genocidal, narcissistic, obnoxious, abrasive and an all-around asshole. He’s the perfect Ugly American stereotype.
While I would never vote for a D or R (thus “wasting my vote” in our sham electoral system) it will be more entertaining to have DT again. KH is dead boring and the plebs need to be entertained and distracted
Jonny, you should consider becoming an ex-pat. No, perhaps giving up US citizenship and living abroad. Where would you go, though? A reasonable person would like to know.
keepin’ it lively on multiple decks….
ringmaster of US clowns does fit….the intemperate felon-in-chief
back on stage….for the home boys…to have something to do…..nights when the WBF sleeps
I’ve also seen no evidence of Harris having any leadership attributes. Even senile Biden still has some, so whatever effect that has had on US policy will be eliminated if Harris wins resulting in an even more directionless (policy to the loudest/highest bidder) next 4 years
I expect Trump to win, as much as I don’t like the thought of it, but I also don’t expect the Dems to change course one tiny bit.
“she could prove she’s a tough commander-in-chief—leader of the “most lethal military” ever, as she puts it—by escalating the conflict and striking deeper inside Russia, risking nuclear war.”
That right there is why our entire family of FDR Democrats are voting for Trump.
Disaster for the environment. Disaster for Gaza. But avoiding a hideous death, even a slight chance of it, is reason enough. Trump’s four years weren’t that bad compared to hers.
“He hates eclectic vehicles”
No canola oil powered five wheeled flying bicycle for you!
Just saw this. Larry Fink, Stephen Schwarzman and others agree. The interests of oligarchy are served, no matter what the outcome of the kakistocRAT freak show.
https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2024/11/05/blackrock-doesnt-matter-us-election-trump-kamala-harris/
Funny. I had looked at Grim´s article and thought “nah, skip it.”
Well, now it caught up with me.
* * *
Three days before election there was an interview with the Palestinian solidarity “Abandon Harris” campaign, which had started as “Abandon Biden” after Biden did nothing against the genocide.
The interview was put online 4/11 but reposted by Scheerpost only today:
Abandon Harris Campaign Is Seeking ‘The Defeat of a Genocidaire’
https://scheerpost.com/2024/11/05/abandon-harris-campaign-is-seeking-the-defeat-of-a-genocidaire/
An excerpt:
“(…)
Peoples Dispatch: Is there anything that Harris could do at this point that would, in fact, win your vote?
Dr. Hassan Abdel Salam: There is absolutely nothing that she can do at this point. We are three days away from the election. Nothing can happen that she would say or do that would change our position.
We put out an ultimatum on October 27, asking the president to call for a ceasefire by October 31. History wrote that this didn’t happen on November 1, Abandon Biden emerged. Then we vowed to actively campaign against the President because three weeks of genocide is intolerable to the American conscience.
We are now three days from the election. [There is] nothing that she can say.
We only need 70,000 votes in Michigan, 10,000 in Arizona, 10,000 in Wisconsin, 10,000 in Georgia, 10,000 in Pennsylvania. Because we’re not seeking to bring someone into the White House. We are seeking the defeat of a genocidaire.
Many people around the world don’t know that these states are neck and neck. And it’s the swing states that decide this election. In fact, our democracy does not abide by the popular vote, but by states. States determine the outcome of the presidency. These swing states, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, these states will determine the presidency.
One shocking thing, by the way, is that the Republicans constantly are courting us, asking us to endorse them, saying that they’ll have peace, that here are these positions that people will get, that you will have the opportunity now to actually be a part of the party, that we will not be Islamophobic, we will not have a Muslim ban, that we seek to have more just policies throughout the world and the Middle East, that we don’t wish to be a racist party.
And this is incredible, because it shows that when you stick to your position and your resolve, then you gain leverage. Of course, we will never endorse the Republicans. The Republican Party must be a party of unity, of inclusivity, a party of diversity, a party that seeks justice at the level of foreign policy abroad and not just in America. And so we’re in no place to endorse them.
PD: What is the future of the Abandon Harris campaign after November 5?
HAS: A lot of people ask us how is it that you’re endorsing the Green Party? Are they going to win? Our campaign is a campaign of truth. I will be completely transparent. We endorse knowing that the Green Party has no chance of winning.
(…)”
Go back and read the part about the middle east if DT wins. Punishing the Dem’s because of Israel will not improve anything in Gaza.
Agreed, but the point here is not to improve Gaza in the short or medium term. “Punishing a genocidaire”, not electing an anti-genocide candidate.
There’s a logic to this. We’re already at rock bottom in terms of Gaza policy; despite his rhetoric Trump can’t apply less pressure than zero to Netanyahu, and Harris has signaled every intent to continue Biden’s policy. Improving the situation in Gaza is not on the table this cycle. At least losing Michigan would demonstrate to the Democrat Party that doing a genocide is not politically cost-free, possibly shifting their self-interested calculus in the future.
It’s pretty thin gruel but I don’t see another meal on the table.
I see Biden’s “peace” initiatives and settler sanctions as just theater. I also see both candidates as pandering to the Jewish vote, which is way bigger then the Islamic vote. There is a possibility that Harris will wear a different hat when she is in the driver’s seat. Harris will also listen to advisers. Trump will not
Trump on the other hand is not just Israel’s friend, he is Netinyahoo’s buddy and wantabe strongman. I agree that the genocide is a huge issue but there are many very important issues. It is a luxury to have only one burning issue that lends one moral superiority.
I do believe myself morally superior to genocidaires but that’s not the issue here, is it? There’s a strategic calculus I’ve just clearly described. Voting in genocidaires over and over teaches them that genocide is acceptable.
you must have read the article with your eyes closed, JP. Democrats are voting against trump. Those of us with principle are voting against genocide. The Abandon Harris folks are principled.
A very interesting electoral tactic. Very direct, honest and intentional. Most useful for any Skunk Party simply because if they can’t win they can at least prevent the worst candidate from winning. And a proven tactic as third parties can take votes away from the other two. In fact this is genius for maintaining ethical government. It could turn into a colossal Mexican standoff if enough parties get involved. Political Prevention Parties. Pure chaos. But then other countries have several political parties and they seem to function just fine. Maybe it is game over for our two party system.
So the most strategic thing Harris could do is lose this election so Democrats have any chance at all in 2028? If Harris wins without House and Senate in 2024, Democrats are screwed in 2028? Is that what I’m reading here?
If so, it makes me wonder if that’s been the Democrat strategy all along, to lose.
I think Grim gets a lot of things right. If he is in any way accurate, the destruction of universities, mass firing of federal employees, theatrical roundup of immigrants, etc are all enough to prefer Harris to Trump. Actually, perhaps the largest single motivator is keeping Elon Musk as far away from power as possible.
I also think the debt ceiling brinksmanship is all for show. The financial system simply will not tolerate something absurd like missing or delaying a coupon payment on Treasuries. They hold the real power in this country and I don’t even think Trump or a GOP controlled congress is dumb enough to risk it. Maybe I’m wrong. I shudder to think what would happen to interest rates in the US if the “risk free rate” associated with Treasuries had to actually start pricing in a lot more risk. The tarrifs would be massively inflationary too. I honestly think we might start heading toward the high single digit inflation again if Trump gets into office. We may be headed there again regardless of who does.
I believe both choices are equally dangerous. It is just that the details are different, if nothing else, a Harris Administration would quickly ramp up the repression using a strengthened security state, and the use of war for financial gain would increase.
“most lethal military”
I dont know if this originates with that ominous endorsement of Harris by 1000+ people from the US nat.sec. apparatus – but last night Walter Kirn laughed quite a bit about that phrase in that letter because ONE word was put into quotation marks – “lethal” – and he and Taibbi were wondering – why that one??
good question.
Which sort of in a nutshell describes the hollowness and complete lack of coherence of the Harris campaign.
Senate – Robert Barnes and Walter Kirn both suggested major Senate wins for GOP. 54, 55, 56 seats!?
Kirn – I think – mentioned NV and AZ.
I think the biggest question if KH wins is what will the dems do without Trump. The last 8 years have been nothing except “but Trump” its their go to excuse for everything. Once they lose that how do they differentiate themselves from Republicans?
Especially since embracing the Cheneys.
They will have to come up with a new culture war or identity issue, but after all the genocide and warmongering I don’t see them having any credibility with the left. So I think the prediction of Republicans winning big in 2028 is pretty accurate, and sad to say as a leftist they might be better, at least if they keep talking about the working class.
They’ll find a new culture war ssue. My sense of it is they’ll keep milking abortion for as long as they can and then find something new when they have to. It’s what saved them during the midterms, and it’s an important enough issues that most people aren’t willing to shrug their shoulders and walk away, even if they know they’re being played. I think they recognize that the LGBTQ well has finally gone dry, and they’ve been going there for water since the Obama years.
To be fair, the GOP has basically put gas in their political tank with abortion to an even greater extent, albeit from the opposite side, for as long as I’ve been alive. Same goes for LGBTQ stuff, albeit to a lesser extend. Wedge issues are exactly that. I’m sure they’ll find new grist for the culture war mill. They always do. People are angrier and more polarized than ever now, it won’t be hard.
“How do they differentiate themselves from Republicans?” Maybe they don’t. I think the Dems are aiming towards being “reasonable” Republicans, although they won’t admit it yet. Republican leaders like the Cheneys are helping them along. But, don’t forget, Obama bragged about being to the right of Reagan and it took Bill Clinton to get a lot of the Republican’s wish list checked off.
Running against Trumpism is way too useful for the powers that be. I don’t expect that to end anytime soon. The actual Republican party can be left to the MAGAs. Even without Trump around, the Dems and the Cheneys and the SecState spooks can still call them garbage and scare people into voting blue.
The Dems are, on a sliding scale, the GOP of roughly 10 years ago. This is how Dick f#cking Cheney gets the Dem red carpet treatment in 2024. Expect GOP talking points from 2010-16 to suddenly be Dem talking points without anyone questioning how that happened.
They won’t have to manage without Trump if they win. I’m pretty sure that nothing short of death will stop Trump from believing the Presidency is rightfully his, and I think he’s more than capable of sabotaging any pretenders, given his support base and their willingness to vote against any alternatives. In fact if he ends up like Biden I could see the Democrats wanting to keep him around for as long as possible.
They’ll escalate with Iran or China.
Update from Phoenix Arizona: 11:00 am and the attendance is pretty sparse at the downtown polling center located close to the ASU buildings.
Why would Netanyahu government collapse after Harris win? AFAIK she is firmly with Biden, who in turn is firmly with Israel/Netanyahu. And she didn’t try to hide it during campaign. So in effect it assumes she is playing the Zionist Lobby and will turn against them after the election, which seems kinda far fetched.
If Trump had not run in 2016, then who would have won the Republican nomination? Kasich, putting any policy issues aside, was by far the most accomplished politician. Only won home state of Ohio and came in distant 4th for delegates. Why?
Two points not/partially covered:
What if Kamala very narrowly wins, and the Republicans/Trump don’t accept the verdict and foment insurrection (fingers crossed), and:
If Trump tries to do a deal in Ukraine – it won’t be that easy. Russia has repeatedly said that each escalation or non-acceptance of negotiation will result in a harder position. By now, that must mean full de-nazification, full and permanent disarmament, full and permanent neutrality, full and permanent acceptance of Russian gained territory, full rescinding of sanctions and full restitution of stolen funds – possibly even the incorporation of the Black Sea coast and Odessa. Can Trump swallow (or be allowed to swallow) that?
Also what if Trump very narrowly wins – same question of Democrats. It could happen just as easily.
Starting about 11:00 minutes, Pepe talks about a possible Trump presidency.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEqxtWsDIGQ
Good interview. Especially the discussion about Lula having to deal with the right wing. Good explanation of the Brazil-Venezuela snafu at BRICS. Thanks.
“Foiling Netanyahu’s bet on Trump is the most persuasive case I’ve heard for a vote for Harris.”
And, people wonder why she’s not getting more popular support.
interesting graphic, German Berliner Zeitung:
Trump&Harris portrait
https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/newsblog-zu-us-wahlen-hier-kommt-was-aktuelles-rein-li.2268510
My forecast is US is declining rapidly with either/or!
Both will abide the fiscal decline of the federal government, and likely be abetted by the fed on the monetary policy side. When do they stop selling to US on credit…….
Only in Ukraine is Trump a tiny bit less scary! Resources freed by exiting Ukraine won’t be used well.
The MIC will continue to profit while refusing to deliver war making equipment.
The moral power of the US in the world will further continue.
The PMC will run Harris, while it will foil Trump. I am flabbergasted: my sister in law a liberal democrat anti war during Vietnam posted a list of all the prominent neocons most, of them retired generals, that support Harris. Those little old ladies that used to be for peace……!
Given the China/Russia/Iran (large part of Iraq)/DPRK axis US needs to back out of the west Pacific, Mediterranean, the Persian Gulf/Red Sea and NATO. Begin to think how to secure the western hemisphere, if China decides economic domination is too slow. Ask China please can we keep Guam, Wake and Johnson Atoll!
Trump is a lot of things but on getting out of NTO he was 4 years ahead!
I count myself fortunate in not being American and living far from the US, so this is all a put-my-feet-up-and-pass-the-popcorn entertainment with a side order of bemused amusement at the utter stupidity and banality in flag-draped display. However to the extent that I care who wins, I’m rooting for a narrow-enough Harris win to justify Trump throwing all his toys out of his cot and challenging the result in all ways legal and underhand, and inciting a sufficiently-limited Jan. 6th event or uprising from his followers to severely rattle what passes for civil society in the US. This might, perhaps, cause the said civil society to take a long, hard and much overdue look at itself and, more importantly for the rest of us, paralyse the Administration to the extent that its maelovlent involvement in world affairs, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East, evaporates allowing those tragedies to resolve themselves as the dice fall.
It’s astounding that an NFL player could lose to a Canadian in Texas. What about America’s Sweethearts and Friday Night Lights?
So, I’ve just dropped off my ballot. This has been one of the more anguishing experiences of my long life.
Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.
“Nothing Will Fundamentally Change” either way I predict.
First effect: Collapse of German Government this evening
Really? What happened?
Scholz and Habeck wanted to explode the Debt Ceiling and Lindner refused. So Scholz is now wedded to Greens and FDP is out of this coalition leaving it a minority regime. Scholz appointed Kukies who is ex-Goldmsn as Finance Minister
Euro should start coming under pressure and Bund yields could go the way of Gilts in London after Halfwit Reeves‘ Budget
With France virtually insolvent I can foresee major turbulence as Trump Wave washes ashore in Europe and UK
“There are only two end points historically for this kind of collision — a state in chaos (think ‘60s and ‘70s rebellion) or a locked-down, Stasi society, surveilled and policed.”
I want to address this comment from Neuburger (though it may be too late since I’m, admittedly, late to comment). Who in the commentariat sees either state in chaos (rebellion) or Stasi Society? And if it’s to be Stasi society, how do we get out of that? I see us heading towards Stasi Society (there are already examples of a proto Stasi Society today) but I refuse to believe that it will last forever. The actual Stasi Society from the Cold War didn’t, after all. So, how does that end? Or, as my son might put it, are we just cooked?
I’ll answer, Scramjett, though I too may be late to the commentarial party.
The answer is actually in your son’s comment. As the climate crisis increases — when we’re “just cooked” — Stasi conditions will increasingly be used to protect the elites and their needed professionals from the chaos caused by both climate and the government’s unwillingness / inability to make people whole.
(I suspect unwillingness will be the chief factor there. What they’ll say: “There’s only so much money to go around, and you’re not in the club that gets it.” It’s what they say now, after all, to the suffering many.)
So the answer is, Stasi society doesn’t have to last long — just till the Jackpot takes the whole game apart.
Thomas
“A great kingdom will be destroyed.”