2:00PM Water Cooler 12/12/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, South Shore of Pueblo Reservoir, Pueblo, Colorado, United States. Starts slowly, but becomes quite virtuosic.

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In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Trump: Time’s “Person of the Year.”
  2. Why Ernst changed her mind on Hegseth; some speculation.
  3. Thumbs down on UCLA’s AI-designed textbook cover.

* * *

Look for the Helpers

“How a middle schooler found a new compound in a piece of goose poop” [Phys.org]. “A group of young students became bonafide biomedical scientists before they even started high school. Through a partnership with a nearby university, the middle schoolers collected and analyzed environmental samples to find new antibiotic candidates. One unique sample, goose poop collected at a local park, had a bacterium that showed antibiotic activity and contained a novel compound that slowed the growth of human melanoma and ovarian cancer cells in lab tests. Inequities in educational resources, especially those in science, engineering, technology and math (STEM), where experiments are expensive, have kept some students underrepresented in these fields. By engaging a group of these students early in real, high-quality research, a team from the University of Illinois at Chicago led by Brian Murphy is providing young learners a chance to see themselves as scientists and explore careers in science with hands-on experience. The team partnered with a Boys and Girls Club in Chicago to bring interested middle schoolers into a 14-week applied science program.” • So being on a flyway has its advantages…

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My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Biden Administration

“Biden commutes roughly 1,500 sentences and pardons 39 people in biggest single-day act of clemency” [Associated Press]. “President Joe Biden is commuting the sentences of roughly 1,500 people who were released from prison and placed on home confinement during the coronavirus pandemic and is pardoning 39 Americans convicted of nonviolent crimes. It’s the largest single-day act of clemency in modern history…. Biden said he would be taking more steps in the weeks ahead and would continue to review clemency petitions…. Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass., and 34 other lawmakers are urging the president to pardon environmental and human rights lawyer Steven Donziger, who was imprisoned or under house arrest for three years because of a contempt of court charge related to his work representing Indigenous farmers in a lawsuit against Chevron. Others are advocating for Biden to commute the sentences of federal death row prisoners…. More clemency grants are coming before Biden leaves office on Jan. 20, but it’s not clear whether he’ll take action to guard against possible prosecution by Trump, an untested use of the power.”

Trump Transition

Well, who else?

Trump to Time cover artist: ‘Make sure my hands are big!”

“Donald Trump 2024 TIME Person of the Year” [Time]. “Trump has a ready explanation for his improbable resurrection. He even has a name for its climactic final act. ‘I called it 72 Days of Fury,’ he says as the interview gets under way. ‘We hit the nerve of the country. The country was angry.’ It wasn’t just the MAGA faithful. Trump harnessed deep national discontent about the economy, immigration, and cultural issues. His grievances resonated with suburban moms and retirees, Latino and Black men, young voters and tech edgelords. While Democrats estimated that most of the country wanted a President who would uphold the norms of liberal democracy, Trump saw a nation ready to smash them, tapping into a growing sense that the system was rigged.” • Or, to put matters more concisely: “These parasites had it coming.” That is, Trump may be surfing a more powerful wave than he, or anyone else, knows. It would be a dark historical jest if Trump turned out to be this century’s Kerensky.

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“Pete Hegseth Will Be Confirmed” [Mark Judge, Splice Today]. “Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), who was reluctant to support Hegseth, emerged from a meeting recently saying Hegseth should get a chance to make his case at a public confirmation hearing. ‘We’re having really good discussions, and we discussed several items that were really important to me,’ Ernst said. This is remarkable coming from Ernst, someone considered a leader in the fight against sexual assault in the military. Hegseth was accused of sexually assaulting a woman in 2017…. So what changed? Joni Ernst is a survivor of sexual assault. Why did her opinion shift so abruptly? I don’t know the answer to that question, but I’m willing to make a guess. I think that in 2017 Hegseth was extorted by DNC goons who set him up. I think, now freed from any non-disclosure agreement, Hegseth has been able to talk about the extortion. I think that’s what the FBI and senators know and what turned the tide.” • Big if true. In the author’s view, he was set up in similar fashion during the Kavavanaugh hearings. And see Water Cooler back in November: “Democrats are enlisting high-powered lawyers, while opposition researchers at the Democratic National Committee are compiling dossiers of incoming federal officials.” And oppo the Hegseth stories (true or not) certainly were.

* * *

“Billion dollar squirrel: Trump effect fuels crypto’s ‘memecoin’ boom” [Financial Times]. “Cryptocurrencies representing a euthanised grey squirrel, a Thai pygmy hippopotamus and a cartoon dog have exploded in value since last month’s US presidential election, as Donald Trump’s victory triggers a surge in speculation in so-called memecoins. The market for tokens representing online viral moments has expanded rapidly since early November as traders bet that Trump’s administration will usher in more crypto-friendly attitudes and regulation in Washington. There are millions of memecoins, which can easily be set up using online memecoin generators. They have no business model, cash flow or fundamental value, and do not give their owners a share of any physical asset. Instead, these highly volatile tokens rely on their popularity among traders to generate liquidity. ‘They have no value, they never will have value,’ Charles Hoskinson, co-founder of the Cardano blockchain, said about memecoins recently. ‘There’s no utility behind them, nobody wants them — when they lose their lustre they go to zero.'” • Look, the Thai pygmy hippopotamus (“Moodeng”) called election 2024. If that’s not “value, I don’t know what is.

* * *

“Save a Reagan Initiative From Musk and Ramaswamy” [Wall Street Journal]. The deck: “The Department of Government Efficiency may seek to slash the National Endowment for Democracy’s funding.” • What’s wrong with slashing funding for the spooks?

“Blow Up Washington” [Tablet]. “The entire history of the republic has taken place against the backdrop of steady expansion in the scope and concentration of power at the federal level…. While too many new presidents have embraced this process, Reagan sought to reverse it, only to slow the sprawl for a few years. Is the lesson, then, that Washington will continue to expand at the expense of the rest of the country? Is this process unstoppable? It needn’t be. While striking a balance between the attributions of the federal and state governments is complicated, controlling the physical location of government activity is much more straightforward. Let’s disperse the government agencies away from the gridlocked highways and overpriced real estate of the Washington, D.C., area to the economically depressed regions of the country they serve, recycling the federal budget back to the economy from which it came. If the agencies are in fact dispersed throughout the country that supports them, recycling tax dollars into the local economies from which they came, it would not only be beneficial to the country at large, but also, unlike the well-intentioned but only temporarily effective reforms of the Reagan era, it would prove irreversible. Once the government agencies that now crowd Washington and its suburbs are relocated to Appalachia, the Rust Belt, and the poverty pockets of the West, the states that would welcome them will fight in the halls of Congress to keep their share of the $60 billion-plus payroll from returning to the banks of the Potomac.” • Much depends on the locations chosen. One might argue, for example, that a (hypothetical) Dental Floss Protection Agency should be placed in the midst of the alabaster waves of dental floss fields in the heartland (to be “closer to the customers”). But might that lead to more industry capture, rather than less?

* * *

“Chris Wray folds like cheap suit. Don’t be Chris Wray” [Public Notice]. “FBI Director Christopher Wray became the latest public official to remove his own spine and dissolve into a puddle of genuflecting goo for the greater glory of MAGA with his announcement Wednesday that he’ll resign before Trump’s inauguration. FBI directors are supposed to be independent, and Wray still has more than two years left on his term…. Wray said that, in light of Trump’s animosity, his resignation was ‘the best way to avoid dragging the Bureau deeper into the fray.’ For Wray, apparently, the appearance of resistance is a bridge too far, so it’s best just to let the fascist win so he can impose the swift, unilateral peace of autocracy.” • I admire “fascist”; it shows a commitment to the bit few Democrats have. More centrally: “You’re gonna have to learn your clichés.” One folds “like a deckchair” (a cheap suit may wrinkle, but it does not fold). The “cheap suit” snowclone (phrasal template) works like this: “The ____ were all over ___ like a cheap suit.” The blanks could be filled in with, say, “press” and “me.” Or “spooks” and “the Trump campaign.” Or “venture capitalists” and “AI.”

“A Scandalous Resignation” [The Atlantic]. “But a scandal it most certainly is. By tradition, FBI directors serve 10-year terms, a norm designed to insulate the FBI from pressure to serve the president’s whims.” • The Norms Fairy sheds a tear…..

2024 Post Mortem

Democrats en déshabillé

“Democrats can work with DOGE. I know exactly where to start.” [Ro Khanna, MSNBC]. ” I look forward to working with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to reduce waste and fraud at the Pentagon, while strongly opposing any cuts to programs like Social Security, Medicare, the Department of Veterans Affairs or the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. There are several areas of waste and abuse that I hope DOGE will address.” • And the CIA Black Budget. Note, however: “DOGE co-chair Elon Musk.” Musk is not the co-chair of anything, because DOGE is not an officially constituted entity of any kind (“Hey kids! Let’s put on a show!” doesn’t meet that criterion). And when (if?) it becomes one, I would bet it will have to conform to the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA), just like HICPAC. From GAO:

Federal advisory committees are created by Congress, Presidents, and executive branch agencies to gain expertise

and policy advice from individuals outside the federal government. Establishing an advisory committee may also allow the federal government to provide a forum where potentially controversial topics may be discussed by experts outside the political arena and reduce the workload of executive branch employees and Congress.

That sure sounds like DOGE’s use case to me. Elon can opine and collect suggestions on the Twitter all he wants, but at some point DOGE needs to, as it were, engage the clutch and begin transmission to the government; FACA is the obvious API for that. Otherwise, Elon is just jawboning, and I wouldn’t give much for his chances of success, even if he does manage to induce the occassional DOGEpile on some hapless civil servant.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Maskstravaganza

“An Interview with Zhou Liang, the Creator of Zimi Mask” [CovidAware]. LIANG: “I started designing and producing masks in 2013. Zimi is my third entrepreneurial project… Zimi mask = frame + filter element. The frame is made of plastic, does not contain metal, and is available in a variety of sizes. The frame has elastic properties and can be reused until it breaks or cracks. This time is not fixed. For example, if you ask me, how long can your phone case last? The filter element is mainly composed of filter material and sealing material. The filter material is a polypropylene-based fiber material with static charge. It has multiple layers, and static electricity is constantly consumed during use. The sealing material is a new composite material with a 2+1 structure. There is a layer of airtight material in the middle, so it is comfortable and does not allow air to penetrate. The filter element can be replaced after use….. As of December 2024, Zimi masks have 4 frames, and the frames for XS and XL sizes are completed within a month….” • Interesting to listen to a working engineer!

Sequelae: Covid

“How Covid Can Change Your Gut” [New York Times]. “We don’t have good estimates for what percentage of people with Covid go on to develop persistent gastrointestinal symptoms, but some limited and small studies suggest they can be between 16 and 40 percent…. One theory about how the coronavirus might cause these symptoms is that it may ramp up inflammation in the gastrointestinal tract. Covid can also disrupt the gut microbiome, Dr. King said, resulting in fewer of the ‘good’ microbes that tamp down inflammation and more of the ‘bad’ ones that cause inflammation. Over time, inflammation can damage the lining of the intestine, making it more permeable or ‘leaky,’ Dr. Chey said. That leakiness may allow molecules from foods to escape from the gut, causing immune cells to mount an allergy-like response to foods. Covid-induced inflammation may also ‘chew away’ at the nerves that control contractions and pain signals in the gut, said Dr. Braden Kuo, a neurogastroenterologist at Massachusetts General Hospital. This might cause the nerves to send pain signals to the brain, even when digestion is working normally, he said. Anxiety and depression often worsen gut symptoms, too.” • If the Times is covering this, it must be bad…

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert: CDC’s wastewater page loaded. No Thanksgiving surge that I can see.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC December 2 Last week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC December 7 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 30

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data December 10: National [6] CDC December 5:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens December 9: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 23:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC November 19: Variants[10] CDC November 4:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Good news!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) Down.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveled out.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Actually improved; it’s now one of the few charts to show the entire course of the pandemic to the present day.

[7] (Walgreens) Down.

[8] (Cleveland) Down.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “US initial jobless claims soared by 17,000 from the previous week to 242,000 on the first week of December, well above market expectations that they would fall to 220,000, to mark the sharpest count of new claims since October.”

Inflation: “United States Producer Prices” [Trading Economics]. “Producer Prices in the United States increased to 146.49 points in November from 145.94 points in October of 2024.”

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Manufacturing: “Inside Boeing’s struggle to make its best-selling plane again” [Reuters]. “Boeing’s cautious approach, following criticism that the planemaker for years rushed production, has garnered praise from regulators and some airline CEOs. But it also has some smaller suppliers who cut jobs or operating hours during the strike hesitating to staff-up again, creating further uncertainty in an already fragile supply chain, according to three suppliers, one analyst and an industry source…. At the factory, daily tasks are paired with exacting efforts to clean up and take steps to avoid error, with note-taking FAA officials carrying clipboards and donning reflective vests a regular sight, they said…. [FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker] told Reuters that Boeing has a long journey to achieve its targeted safety culture. ‘The plant’s cleaner, as you would expect, but they’re frank about the fact that they’ve got a long way to go,’ he said….. Seattle-area supplier Rosemary Brester hoped she and her husband would be able to get their metal aircraft components processed more quickly following the end of the strike, but delays persist… ‘Until I see some real stability, I’m not going to hire anybody,’ Brester said.” • The plant wasn’t clean? The mind reels. When I bought printing, I always made sure to visit the candidates. Beer bottles under the tables were a strong no. And the press should always be running (“time is money”). If “cleaner” means what I think it means, it sounds like if Boeing were a printer, I would have gone elsewhere. And not a monopoly player, of course. Can any readers confirm?

Manufacturing: “A Closer Look at Boeing’s Options Market Dynamics” [Benzinga]. “High-rolling investors have positioned themselves bullish on Boeing, and it’s important for retail traders to take note. This activity came to our attention today through Benzinga’s tracking of publicly available options data. The identities of these investors are uncertain, but such a significant move in BA often signals that someone has privileged information. Today, Benzinga’s options scanner spotted 10 options trades for Boeing. This is not a typical pattern. The sentiment among these major traders is split, with 60% bullish and 40% bearish. Among all the options we identified, there was one put, amounting to $227,500, and 9 calls, totaling $410,750.” • I don’t play the ponies, but if you do…

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s India exports remain high, climbing over $1.25 billion” [BusinessLine]. “Global growth of civil aviation, along with high domestic demand, has led aerospace major Boeing to remain the largest exporter of aircraft parts and software from India. Speaking exclusively to businessline, Boeing India and South Asia President Salil Gupte cited that the aerospace major’s annual sourcing from India has grown significantly over the past decade, rising from $250 million to over $1.25 billion annually. ‘This marks a substantial increase, driven by the expansion of the supplier network and advancements in manufacturing capabilities,’ Gupte told businessline. “It is also fair to say that this growth is truly remarkable considering that the production of the aeroplanes themselves on the civil side has been much lower than before the pandemic.'”

Manufacturing: “Opinion: Why Embraer Might Be Ready To Take On Airbus And Boeing” [Aviation Week]. “Much focus has been on China’s Comac. Conventional wisdom holds that China’s rapid advances in military propulsion and space eventually will extend to commercial aviation…. I’m not so sure. In the near term, Comac does not need to be a global player for its new C919 narrowbody to succeed. China’s domestic market is big enough to soak up most of Comac’s limited production capacity. Developing a truly competitive international product will require certification in the West and the creation of a global maintenance and support network, no small tasks. The ongoing decoupling of the Chinese and Western supply chains poses yet another challenge. The company to keep an eye on in 2025 is Embraer, the feisty Brazilian manufacturer that was almost bought by Boeing and then jilted at the altar. With excellent engineers and visionary leaders, Embraer has built world-class airplanes for decades while protecting the intellectual property of its suppliers. It is certainly capable of upgauging to a bigger airplane that could challenge the duopoly. Aviation Week has learned that multiple large airlines in the U.S. and Europe have told Embraer they will collectively order hundreds of airplanes if a new program is launched.” Hoo boy. But: “A key question, of course, is whether Embraer can play in the big leagues. It has 1/20th the revenue of Boeing and thus would need a financial partner with billions of dollars to develop a new product. Talk has focused on investors from the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia. Another challenge is that Embraer’s business model relies heavily on outsourcing major components.”

Manufacturing: “GM to retreat from robotaxi operations once championed by CEO Mary Barra” [Business Standard]. “With the decision to fold Cruise into the parent company, GM is giving up on hopes of transforming itself into a multi-platform technology company that targeted bringing in $50 billion in revenue from robotaxi fares and subscriptions by 2030. The carmaker had hoped to double its revenue by 2030 on the twin pillars of autonomy and electric vehicles. That goal, which GM has called “aspirational,” also now looks remote without Cruise as a new business and after GM scaled-back its EV production goals.” • Ah, “aspirational.”

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 51 Neutral (previous close: 48 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 56 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Dec 11 at 1:27:47 PM ET.

Christmas Pre-Game Festivities

“Demonic Christmas Display at State House Destroyed” [NH Journal]. “Forget St. Nick; someone in Concord may end up on Satan’s naughty list after The Satanic Temple’s Baphomet statue was destroyed Monday night in an act of yuletide mayhem. Concord Deputy Police Chief John Thomas told NHJournal that while the investigation into the vandalism is active and ongoing, he can rule out at least one possible suspect. ‘Santa wouldn’t do this,’ Thomas said. ‘Santa loves everybody.’ The statue of the hooded demon was found broken in half around 7 p.m. Monday night, a few hours after the marble slab showing The Satanic Temple’s seven principles was cracked. State Rep. Ellen Read (D-Newmarket), who helped organize The Satanic Temple’s display, was spotted gathering up the broken shards of the goat-headed figure Tuesday morning after getting a call about the destruction. She’s not sure if members of The Satanic Temple plan to put their monster mannequin back together.”

Zeitgeist Watch

Dry, very dry:

“Tactical beard oil.” The responses are great.

“Argument escalates when man visits neighbor with sword and firebomb, Florida cops say” [News & Observer]. I’ll say! “When interviewed, the 36-year-old man confirmed using a bottle with some gasoline in it and brandishing a sword ‘to make a point,’ police said. The suspect said ‘he went to the residence to send a message regarding disrespect to a family member,’ police said. Details of that incident were not released.”

Groves of Academe

“UCLA’s new AI-designed literature course has the worst-looking textbook cover I’ve ever seen” [Literary Hub]. “UCLA announced the other day that ‘Comp Lit 2BW will be the first course in the UCLA College Division of Humanities to be built around the Kudu artificial intelligence platform. The textbook: AI-generated. Class assignments: AI-generated. Teaching assistants’ resources: AI-generated.’ The professor’s explanation of why any of this is good doesn’t make any sense to me — she seems to be describing standard teaching practices like discussing texts and putting together a syllabus, but now AI is involved. Which to me always feels like a looming labor issue — I wouldn’t be shocked to see this software cited as justification to fire professors or TAs, or reduce their pay.” Plus ça change…. More “But what really got me fuming was the horrible, horrible textbook cover that was extruded for this course.” • Here it is:

Concluding: “This cover sucks, it’s so bad. Have some dignity people, we don’t have to live like this.” • UCLA administrators: “Yes, you do.”

Poetry Nook

A villanelle (?):

“The villanelle has been noted as a form that frequently treats the subject of obsessions, and one which appeals to outsiders; its defining feature of repetition prevents it from having a conventional tone.” Maybe the poet is an outsider now….

Class Warfare

“Seattle road sign’s message raises questions after CEO’s shooting” [KOMO (PI)]. “It is not yet known who was responsible for programming the sign or which agency operates it — Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), Seattle Department of Transportation (SDOT) — or a private company.” • Wowsers:

Those swing voters are getting really antsy….

News of the Wired

“Nearly half of US teens are online ‘constantly,’ Pew report finds” [Associated Press]. “Nearly half of American teenagers say they are online “constantly” despite concerns about the effects of social media and smartphones on their mental health, according to a new report published Thursday by the Pew Research Center. As in past years, YouTube was the single most popular platform teenagers used — 90% said they watched videos on the site, down slightly from 95% in 2022. Nearly three-quarters said they visit YouTube every day. There was a slight downward trend in several popular apps teens used. For instance, 63% of teens said they used TikTok, down from 67% and Snapchat slipped to 55% from 59%. … X saw the biggest decline among teenage users. Only 17% of teenagers said they use X, down from 23% in 2022, the year Elon Musk bought the platform. Reddit held steady at 14%. About 6% of teenagers said they use Threads, Meta’s answer to X that launched in 2023.” • Probably good news, actually, on Musk’s hellsite (as its users have affectionately dubbed it).

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From AM:

AM writes: “My favorite evergreen tree with a half moon shining between the branches on the left – Roger Williams Park.”

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

52 comments

    1. barefoot charley

      Very interesting! Putin got Turkey and the US to win the whole festering mess that Russia and Iran saw wasn’t worth saving, because Assad was only ever about staying in power, over all the people who’ve learned to hate him more since the rebellion began. We’ve seen the suggestion elsewhere that Russia wasn’t about to fight for a regime that couldn’t get citizens to fight for it. Sound explanation to me, who know no better. Now we get to see how ‘our’ head-choppers behave in suits!

      Reply
      1. barefoot charley

        And Israel knows what kind of neighbors they’ll be. So while taking victory laps our two governments bomb the billy dickens out of the government assets we just won. Another sunny day in Propagandaville.

        Reply
    2. pjay

      Now that’s what I call putting a positive spin on things!

      Seems to be a lot of truth content in these points, though.

      Reply
  1. Joe Renter

    One less CEO… makes me proud to have lived in the Jet City once upon a time. I don’t condone violence, but is this cause and effect.

    Reply
  2. mrsyk

    That AI generated book cover, yikes. Chat GDP has been spending too much time in the children’s section. Where’s Waldo?

    Reply
      1. Michael Hudson

        I actually loved it. I laughed and laughed.
        It would be a come-on to as yet undiscovered territories and languages.

        I’m actually looking for a good book designer for my medieval debt to WW I book. This cover has the right idea. (Any suggestions or recommendations?)

        Reply
        1. Antagonist

          Choosing Albrecht Dürer for …and forgive them their debts was awesome. Of course, Dürer was not alive during Jesus’ time, as depicted on that engraving. I’m not much of an art connoisseur, but I wish there was moar Dürer.

          Reply
    1. vao

      “NANOLU AGE LANGUGA LGUGAR LANILAN” looks like Tagalog to me.

      The cover is absolutely typical of what generative AI was producing two-three years ago.

      Several elements in the picture have a Hieronymus Bosch quality to them: the character carrying some non-descript artifact fused with the arm on the top-left, the indescribable entity to her left, the small headless character to the right of the building and the ghost to the left of it, the bizarre thing left of SCIAIVIAESCH, the blocky-headed person below ITA…

      This looks like a practical joke. Is the source of the information reliable?

      Reply
        1. JMH

          “UCLA’s new AI-designed literature course: This is nonsense. UCLA is promoting illiteracy. UCLA purports to be a great university. It is a bad joke if this foolishness is any indication.

          Reply
          1. pjay

            Are we sure this isn’t a Sokal-type hoax? I mean, an AI designed literature course? Seriously? After all, “AI” seems to be the new “post-modern.”

            I just realized that my last sentence could be taken different ways. It could suggest a hoax, or it could suggest that it’s real. Both are equally believable.

            Reply
    2. Angie Neer

      I can’t even…. what is happening? You mean to tell me there are people at a teaching institution who look at that image and think it has an educational purpose other than demonstrating how absurd the AI mania has become? It takes a lot to shock me, but I’m shocked. The situation is much worse than I realized.

      Reply
      1. Lunker Walleye

        >What is happening?
        exactly what I thought, along with “I’m old and the world is going to the devil”. LOL

        Also, I saw the Bosch influence there and maybe seven of the nine circles of hell.

        Reply
    3. Duke of Prunes

      One more chatgpt story… so I’ve been writing a lot of emails at work where I answer difficult technical questions in the most layman understandable way as possible. I’ve been getting lazy about doing my usual careful word-smithing so I’ve been experimenting with writing something adequate and tossing it into chatgpt with the instruction – “improve this writing”. It sometimes improves my purposefully poor writing, but it also always makes a change that triggers a pet peeve: substituting “utilize” and all its forms for “use”. Maybe it’s just me, but this is a marker that I’ve used for years to detect incoming BS. When I hear or read “utilize” warning bells go off in my head – someone is trying sound smart… probably for the purposes of misleading me. I suppose this is par for the course with AI.

      Reply
      1. mrsyk

        It uses administration speak. Of course. Following that line of thought…..a glimmer of sweet, sweet revenge? If it talks the talk…

        Reply
    4. ChrisPacific

      I had to check the URL to see if it was The Onion.

      It’s tempting to call the top of the AI bubble based on this, but I believe we will see even stupider stuff before the end.

      Reply
      1. JMH

        So called AI is machine learning. One way to look at it is garbage in-garbage out. You insult your intelligence by using it. Stop.

        Reply
  3. Wukchumni

    Weird scenes inside the numismatrix make me happy…

    Those glorious bubbles of the 17th century-early 18th century were all pretty much localized flimflam, but this a worldwide delusion writ large… Cryptocurrency

    Reply
  4. griffen

    Florida man….that is right out of the additional Commandments I do believe….”Thou Shalt not confront thy neighbor wielding thy sword intending harm in the wee hours…”

    As once was written… nothing good ever really happened after midnight.

    Reply
      1. griffen

        Just consider the myriad options to spin off movies within the DC Comics film universe…Aquaman IX, …”and back to the land from whence he came…”. Starring Dwayne Johnson in his feature recurring role to be The Reboot Movie Man..

        Set to be filmed in 2041, at the now ( now being circa 2038 ) underwater Mar A Lago studio site using aquatic filming systems…This sequel to the follow up to a reboot will be a huge international success!

        Reply
  5. wsa

    I’ve had IBS since my late teens (now in my 50s). It comes and goes over the years. Sadly, this summer we got covid in the house for the first time, which has definitely riled things up in that department in unpleasant ways. And of course the gut issues have lingered, though fortunately I’ve not noticed any of the more dramatic kinds of long-covid problems. (Though would I, for the cognitive ones? I worry about that sometimes.)

    Reply
  6. Tom Stone

    Here in Santa Rosa I frequently drive by the new County Jail, six stories above ground and two below.
    It cost in the range of $200MM.
    I wonder how manys chool lunches that would have bought?
    I’m sure the survivors of Helene see the $23,000,000, 000 sent to Israel to murder Children or the untold Billions of $ sent to Ukraine and have similar thoughts.
    No $ to feed the hungry, no $ to house the homeless, no $ to provide life saving medical care for Americans.
    No limit to the $ available for Prisons or to murder Children, no limit to the $ to arm Nazi’s.
    And our “Leaders” can’t understand why Americans aren’t joyful.
    There is a breaking point, and at that point it doesn’t matter how effective the surveillance is or how many SWAT teams the Government has because American Society depends on the active cooperation of most of the people.
    When that cooperation stops, nothing works.

    Reply
  7. Vicky Cookies

    Re: the WSJ article with the purplish, flowing defense of the NED’s money supply:

    The author, who explains that he was on the NED’s board for a decade, never mentions arguments against the NED (such as the fact that it is a CIA cutout; that as an insidious and infmaous ‘soft-power’ organization, it poisons our relations with officials in other countries; that we have no business deciding for citizens of other countries who rules them, &c.). He also never mentions the source of this newfound attention on an “N”GO which would probably rather not have had any. The article merely says that “reportedly” (by whom?), the NED is on the chopping block at the new DOGE. As it happens, on November 29th, The American Conservative published an op-ed by Kelly Beaucar Vlahos entitled “DOGE’s Best First Target: the National Endowment for Democracy”.

    TAC is a publication which often speaks for Catholic conservatives with a libertarian bent when it comes for foreign adventurism. If TAC and others around that space, like those at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, or Antiwar.com are feared to be among the influences of Mr. Musk and Mr. Ramaswamy, color me tickled pink. I’ll even take the free-market version of anti-imperialism. I’ve worked on anti-war education with libertarians before, earning condemnation in my local left scene. An old idea of mine was to have antiwar groups apply for funding with the NED (to draw attention to it), in the name of spreading democracy in America

    More seriously, the questions we might ask have to do with the likely results of the NED having its funding slashed or being closed. Would there be a proportional increase in the budget at CIA or USAID?

    I thought the TAC article was a good move, but would really rather have this type of quasi-government body discussed in terms of the acceptability of what it does, instead of whether or not they’re getting the bang for the buck desired. I suppose that as our empire declines, any official reasons for decisions around contraction will be framed, or believed, to be about good ol’ American pragmatism.

    Reply
  8. Ben Panga

    Lambert,

    I posted in today’s links a theory to explain the New Jersey drones.

    I believe the theory can also account for the UFO stuff that’s been emanating from Washington since 2017. The tone of the UFO whistleblowers has always been about the need for defence against weird flying things. Gillibrand, one of the early senate supporters of “UAP disclosure” had already drifted away from UFOs and into defending against prosaic threats. Schumer originally sponsored UFO stuff in defence procurement acts, but dropped it recently without protest. Both Gillibrand and Schumer today added their weight to the demand for action in this open letter

    Given the sums of money involved, it’s not a stretch for my tin-foil-hatted mind to see the post-2017 Ufology scene as an inorganic creation of a cabal that wants to upend military spending and development.

    Fwiw one of the biggest podcasts promoting UFO stuff is that of Jesse Michel who seems to be a creature of Thiel. He is the biggest promoter of main UFO whistleblower and jovial ex-Gitmo spook Luis Elizondo. I also get strong CIA-type vibes from some of the other main UFO hypers (eg Jeremy Corbell).

    The whole UFO story rested on a few insiders and no concrete proof. It’ll be interesting to see if it now starts to fade away.

    Reply
  9. The Rev Kev

    “Chris Wray folds like cheap suit. Don’t be Chris Wray.”

    Chris Wray has got some ‘splainin’ to do. But if there is one person that knows which countries the US has an extradition treaty with, it would be a former head of the FBI. Maybe Trump can finally find out how many members of the FBI alone were in that crowd on January 6th and what they were doing that day.

    Reply
  10. upstater

    Lambert said: “It would be a dark historical jest if Trump turned out to be this century’s Kerensky.”

    Where is the left/workers politcal organization? Perhaps Kurt von Schleicher is a more appropriate historical parallel?

    Reply
  11. The Rev Kev

    “Save a Reagan Initiative From Musk and Ramaswamy”

    The intel services really hurt Trump in his first Presidency so it looks like Trump taking away their money & influence machine with the National Endowment for Democracy is payback. How will they be able to fund all those colour revolutions now like they are trying in Georgia? How will they be able to destabilize all those countries out there? This is Trump really getting brutal with those that undermined him so badly.

    Reply

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