2:00PM Water Cooler 12/18/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, Southards Pond Park, Suffolk, New York, United States. “Three song bouts. Singing from the roof of a house adjacent to the park. Mimicry includes Belted Kingfisher, Northern Flicker, and Carolina Wren.” “Bouts!”

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Warren v. Musk.
  2. Democrat gerontocrats
  3. Mangione charged with terrorism.
  4. Bird flu, the first severe case.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Trump Transition

Warren asks for conflict-of-interest rules covering Musk” [The Hill]. • She’s right on the merits, of course. How is an oligarch not conflicted, by definition, since they, by their actions or non-actions, are capable of affecting the entire economy? Elon responds:

A brutally obvious ad hom, of course. Tactically, however, it’s highly unfortunate that the Democrat standard-bearer on Elon’s oligarch-style conflicts is the sort of DEI-beneficiary guaranteed to get every conservative knee jerking:

And:

We went over all this back in 2016, when the unimpeachably high-minded quondam Republican Warren was stabbing Sanders in the back — not that I’m bitter — but suffice to say that one is only a Cherokee — the tribe to which Warren claimed to belong — if the tribe admits you, and Warren was never admitted. Warren gives every appearance of having climbed to her eminence at Harvard Law School on their (non-white) backs, exactly what inflames, say, half the country and distracts from the legitimate issue Warren raises. Too bad the Democrats can’t do better in their spokespersons, but here we are.

* * *

“The upcoming GOP assault on Social Security” [Public Notice]. “During all three of his presidential campaigns, Trump distanced himself from efforts to gut Social Security — sort of. As with so many topics, however, he has not been particularly concerned with consistency. In March of this year, Trump let slip on CNBC that he just might be convinced to go after the social safety net, stating, ‘There is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements in terms of cutting.’ He then went on a marginally coherent “weave,” thereby managing to avoid addressing the implications of his statement…. Soon after winning the election, Trump tasked Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and their pseudo government agency titled “DOGE” (after a crypto currency that had been started as a joke) with cutting as much as $2 trillion of annual spending from the federal budget. Ramaswamy initially appeared to deny that Social Security would be touched, asserting that “program integrity” would be DOGE’s sole focus, and adding that changes in benefits would be a matter for Congress to decide. Yet, for two reasons, there was far less to that assurance than meets to eye. First, it has always been the case that Congress will have to vote in favor of any proposal to gut entitlement programs. That is because Social Security and Medicare comprise “mandatory” spending, which is compelled by statute. And secondly, as a matter of financial fact, the kind of drastic austerity measures that Trump’s cronies are proposing will necessarily involve massive cuts to Social Security, Medicare, or both. That is because approximately 60 percent of the federal budget is composed of mandatory spending, while 10 percent is devoted to debt service. Of the remaining 30 percent, half is defense spending, leaving only 15 percent that comprises the entirety of non-defense, discretionary spending.” • Left to their own devices, the Republicans, augmented by oligarchs, will do what they always do (if Trump allows it, but who knows). It is to be hoped that the centrist dipshits who were pushing a “Grand Bargain” in the Obama years don’t decide to join with DOGE and “save Social Security.”

Democrats en déshabillé

“Pelosi Won. The Democratic Party Lost” [The New Republic]. “Fresh off hip replacement surgery, Nancy Pelosi, 84, secured another victory. House Democrats on Tuesday afternoon decided that 74 year old Gerry Connolly—who announced his throat cancer diagnosis in November—will serve as ranking member on the House Oversight Committee, besting 35 year-old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a closed-door caucus vote. ‘Gerry’s a young 74, cancer notwithstanding, said Virginia Democrat Don Beyer, a Connolly ally.” More: “In other democracies, the leadership of parties that have endured humiliating defeats like the one Democrats saw in November—or even just regular defeats—resign. That kicks off a process by which members determine a new, ideally more successful direction, represented by different people. But the Democratic Party isn’t really a ‘party’ of the sort that exists in other democracies, with memberships and official constituencies, like unions, who have some say over how it’s governed. Members mostly make decisions based on their own interests rather than to drive some shared, democratically-decided agenda forward [“the beautiful tent that is the Democratic Party“]. That’s part of what’s so depressing about the Oversight Committee ordeal for the couple dozen journalists and political junkies who pay attention to that sort of thing. Pelosi and the old guard’s continued opposition to younger talent seems breathtakingly counter-productive in the face of the Democratic party’s numerous challenges right now.” And: ” If the Democrats have a future, its inspiration will come from outside the bounds of its own fiefdoms and sclerotic internal processes. It will come, for example, from unions that cultivate leaders who can genuinely speak to working class voters. It will come social movements that build momentum for populist ideas that haven’t been poll tested into bland, business-friendly mush. At the very least, those things can outlive Pelosi and the old guard.” • ‘Tis a consummation devoutly to be wished. But I don’t agree that “members mostly make decisions based on their own interests.” If that were true, there would be no need for party whips.

* * *

Democrats’ Five Strategies for Coping With Trump 2.0″ [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “Some Democrats are so thoroughly impressed by the current power of the MAGA movement they are choosing to surrender to it in significant respects. The prime example is Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, the onetime fiery populist politician who is now becoming conspicuous in his desire to admit his party’s weaknesses and snuggle up to the new regime…. It’s probably germane to Fetterman’s conduct that he will be up for reelection in 2028, a presidential-election year in a state Trump carried on November 5.” And: “Other Democrats are being much more selectively friendly to Trump, searching for ‘common ground’ on issues where they believe he will be cross-pressured by his wealthy backers and more conventional Republicans. Like Fetterman, these Democrats — including Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — tend to come from the progressive wing of the party and have longed chafed at the centrist economic policies advanced by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and, to some extent, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. They’ve talked about strategically encouraging Trump’s ‘populist’ impulses on such issues as credit-card interest and big-tech regulation, partly as a matter of forcing the new president and his congressional allies to put up or shut up. So the idea is to push off a discredited Democratic Establishment, at least on economic issues, and either accomplish things for working-class voters in alliance with Trump or prove the hollowness of his ‘populism.’… At the other end of the spectrum, some centrist Democrats are pushing off what they perceive as a discredited progressive ascendancy in the party, especially on culture-war issues and immigration…. From a strategic point of view, these militant centrists appear to envision a 2028 presidential campaign that will take back the voters Biden won in 2020 and that Harris lost this year.” But finally: “Historical precedents indicate very high odds that Democrats can flip the House in 2026, bringing to a relatively quick end to any Republican legislative steamroller on Trump’s behalf and signaling good vibes for 2028.” • So, stand pat.

“What Happened to the Democratic Party?” (review) [The New Repunblic]. This caught my eye, on rival pollsters Stanley Greenberg and Douglas Schoen: “For [historian Timothy Shenk in Left Adrift, these two men—bitter rivals for clout and clients in the retooling Democratic Party of the Clinton era—understood better than many traditional New Dealers in the party’s leadership caste that a massive, if slow-moving, political realignment was under way: the party’s abandonment of its traditional working-class base and its embrace of a professional, highly educated elite…. Greenberg, who came of political age during Eugene McCarthy’s incendiary anti-war presidential campaign in 1968, accepted this political shift as it gained traction in the Reagan era. But he did so from a defensive posture, seeking to persuade candidates and clients to echo vintage Democratic populist appeals in a last-ditch bid to arrest the dealignment of working-class voters from the party. Meanwhile, Schoen, a scion of Manhattan privilege, cheerfully welcomed the shift as the new consensus delimiting future Democratic agendas, policy goals, and political campaigns…. Schoen, for his part, had no misgivings about the party giving up on the working class, white or not. An early and enthusiastic adopter of Margaret Thatcher’s famous pronouncement on the neoliberal dispensation—”There is no alternative”—Schoen and his consulting partner, Mark Penn (who would later serve as chairman of Hillary Clinton’s disastrous 2008 presidential campaign), built up an influential and wildly profitable Beltway franchise for political and corporate clients that also advanced their own political preferences.” • There’s actually some analysis in the piece that treats “the working class” as dynamic….

“The Dead Hand of the Democratic Consultant Class” [The Nation]. “Despite appearances, this at times bruising argument isn’t really about the past at all. What it’s really about is the future, and whether the Democratic Party needs the kind of root-and-branch reform that would allow it to ignore the siren song of the consultant class, which has now led the party to two disastrous defeats. Or whether, to borrow a term from British politics, all that is required for victory is ‘one more heave’—running the same campaign, but with a bit more vigor than last time. That, in essence, was the message a shockingly unrepentant David Plouffe and his colleagues offered as guests on Pod Save America: Give us the chance to do it all over again in 2028 and we will. Anyone even tempted to credit these grifters should listen to Plouffe’s October episode, ‘Why You Shouldn’t Panic About the Polls.'” • I think that battle is over; “one more heave” it is (absent active intervention by some insurgent force, for which or whom I scan the horizon in vain. That is the message of AOC’s humiliation by Pelosi; and whoever gets annointed by DNC chair will signal victory for the “dead hands.”

Realignment and Legitimacy

“How America Invented the Red State” [Tarence Ray, The Nation]. Of the Trillbillies. Worth reading in full (quotes Frank and Bageant). This caught my eye: “The status of white rural workers is fixed not only in terms of class but in terms of geography, their intransigence rooted in both the soil and the blood. Rather than being in need of transformative social welfare or multiracial working-class solidarity, red-staters are ‘an anchor dragging down the rest of the country.’ Whiteness becomes a kind of dematerializing solvent for all social questions, an eternal and ethereal substance moving throughout history, the persistence of which can never be defeated. It was a position very much consistent with the calcified, end-of-the-road liberalism of the Biden years. The material and social reality could not be overcome, and so the people themselves were to blame. The kernel for this thinking went back to the way the federal government, under both Trump and Biden, handled the pandemic. Responsibility for not spreading the coronavirus was placed on individuals, morally as well as logistically, rather than on the government—at the exact moment that the government expanded its social safety net to adjust for the economic disruptions of lockdown. This safety net, arrived at by an obvious contradiction, was a boon to rural areas in terms of employment, municipal revenue, and administrative capacity. It was not lost on anyone when that safety net was allowed to expire under a liberal president.”

“Luigi Mangione Charged With Terrorism in Killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO” [New York Magazine]. “Luigi Mangione was charged with first-degree murder and second-degree murder as an act of terrorism, among other counts, in an indictment announced by Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg on Tuesday.” Yes, that Alvin Bragg, who no doubt has the Governor’s mansion in his sights.

“The Wildest Charges in Accused UHC Shooter’s Indictment” [The New Republic]. “It’s unclear how exactly Mangione’s alleged crime was intended to ‘influence the policy of a unit of government,’ which companies such as UnitedHealthcare are not, or ‘intimidate’ the civilian population. Rather, Mangione’s alleged act appeared to have been planned to target a specific class of individuals who profit exorbitantly off the suffering of the civilian population. ‘The ruling class is treating killing one of their own, with the motive being related to the evils of our health care system, as a fundamentally different act than if you or I were to be murdered,’ wrote journalist J.P. Hill on X Tuesday.”

“The mechanized hum of another world” [Closed Form]. “Way back at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution that started humanity down this disastrous path, a guy by the name of Friedrich Engels (who is very familiar to anyone that has been reading this newsletter) coined a neat little term to describe a phenomenon particular to the emerging industrial-technical organization of life. The term, which will also be extremely familiar to readers of this newsletter or Nate’s, is social murder. Via a long analysis of the Marxian concept of ‘mute compulsion’ elaborated recently in a book by Søren Mau (and covered by yours truly in this post), we can show straightforwardly that social murder issues from what Ted Kaczynski might call the technological organization of society, and which I would call the ‘rules of the game’ of capitalism itself. Through working on this newsletter, I have started to theorize social murder as a subcategory of structural violence, one that can serve as a theoretical basis for many rather adrift concepts in public health such as so-called ‘health disparities.’ Social murder helps us describe actually-existing population health and ground it conceptually in a capitalist political economy, be it global or national (or local). One of these aspects of population health that social murder helps us make sense of is health insurance – in fact, I am planning a whole post about health insurance, qualitatively, as a social determinant of health, so stay tuned for that.” • Important! (Two questions to interrogate “social murder” with: Who and what are actually murdered? And how does this differ from the operation of Rule #2, the default setting?)

The zeitgeist:

Here is the indictment (PDF) “THE PEOPLE OF THE STATE OF NEW YORK against LUIGI MANGIONE“. From the first paragraph:

This language is taken from New York State Penal Law § 490.25, “CRIME OF TERRORISM.” but I’m having a hard time understanding it. From my helpful annotations:

[1] Is a health insurance company a “civilian population”? If not, who or what is the civilian population intimidated or coerced? The class of all health insurance CEOs? The class of all CEOs? The ruling class? (NOTE: I do not know the meaning of the word “population” in law, and suspect it’s different from the concept of “class” as a political economist would be it.)

[2], [3] Or is a health insurance company a “unit of government”? Surely not, unless “unit” is a term of art. But if not, what is? Congress, in passing health insurance reform? More ingeniously, the organs of state security, who will now be “intimidated” into devising measures to deal with the menance?

“D.A. Bragg Announces Murder Indictment Of Luigi Mangione” (Press Release) [Manhattan District Attorney’s Office]. Here is Bragg’s timeline:

According to court documents and statements made on the record, MANGIONE arrived at Port Authority on a bus on November 24, 2024, and checked in at the HI New York City Hostel on the Upper West Side. MANGIONE used a fake New Jersey ID under the name Mark Rosario. MANGIONE extended his stay at the Hostel multiple times.

On the morning of December 4th, MANGIONE left the Hostel at 5:34 a.m. and travelled to Midtown using an e-bike.

Between 5:52 a.m. and 6:45 a.m., MANGIONE walked near and around the Hilton Hotel. At approximately 6:15 a.m. he purchased a water bottle and granola bars at the Starbucks at 1290 6th Avenue.

Between approximately 6:38 a.m. and 6:44 a.m., MANGIONE stood against a wall on the north side of West 54th Street across from the Hilton, fully masked with his hood up.

At 6:45 a.m., MANGIONE crossed the street to the Hilton Hotel and, armed with a 9-millimeter 3D-printed ghost gun equipped with a silencer, approached Mr. Thompson from behind and shot him once in the back and once in the leg[1].

MANGIONE then fled northeast on 54th Street and took an e-bike uptown. He eventually got into a taxi and was dropped off at West 178th Street and Amsterdam Avenue and then fled the state.

Mr. Thompson was transported to Mt. Sinai Hospital where he was pronounced dead at 7:12 a.m.

Two of the discharged shell casings had the words “DENY” and “DEPOSE” written on them, and the word “DELAY” was written on a bullet, all found at the scene.

On December 9th, MANGIONE was arrested in Altoona, Pennsylvania, after being spotted at a local McDonalds. When he was arrested, police recovered a 9-millimeter handgun with a 3D-printed receiver, two ammunition magazines, multiple live cartridges, a homemade silencer, and the fake New Jersey ID used at the hostel.

[1] From the video, Bragg has the order wrong. First the leg, then the knee. This would be important of Mangione’s defense is that he only intended to kneecap Thompson, as Yves urges here.

Lambert here: America, being a gun-humpingloving country, has a rich tradition and body of law centering on self-defense via firearms. Without lining up my speculation with the facts of the case (for example, it’s hard to see how shooting someone in the back fits in to “stand your ground), what would self-defense against social murder look like, if it were to be reduced to legal doctrine? Let me propose a thought experiment. Case A: Suppose (legal) person HI (for health insurance) has a machine gun, and (natural person) p has a handgun. If HI fires its machine gun at p, is p justified in firing back in self-defense? Surely so. (I assume the analogy between denying care and firing a machine gun is clear.) Case B: Let us suppose we interpose a sheet of paper between HI and p. HI again fires their machine gun at p but through the paper. Is p justified in firing back? Surely so. Case C: Suppose that we leave the paper in place, and introduce a complex Rube Goldberg device between HI’s trigger finger, and the trigger of the machine gun. HI’s finger twitches, the Rube Goldberg device pulls the trigger, the machine gun fires, and again the bullets go through the paper. Again, is p justified in firing back? This case seems not so clear, but why exactly? (I assume the analogy between the health insurance industry’s claims denial process and a Rube Goldberg device is clear.) What is it about the level of indirection in Case C that separates it from Cases A and B? Comments from lawyers welcome!

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Transmission: H5N1

<"Health officials say Louisiana patient is first severe bird flu case in US" [Associated Press]. “A person in Louisiana has the first severe illness caused by bird flu in the U.S., health officials said Wednesday. The patient had been in contact with sick and dead birds in backyard flocks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said. Agency officials didn’t immediately detail the person’s symptoms…. The CDC confirmed the Louisiana infection on Friday, but did not announce it until Wednesday. It’s also the first U.S. human case linked to exposure to a backyard flock, the agency said…. Did the Louisiana patient have pre-existing conditions that made him or her more susceptible to illness? Is the person on a ventilator? The CDC deferred those and other questions about the patient to state health officials, who did not immediately respond.” • Because of course.

“CDC Confirms First Severe Case of H5N1 Bird Flu in the United States” (press release) [CDC]. “This case underscores that, in addition to affected commercial poultry and dairy operations, wild birds and backyard flocks also can be a source of exposure….. This means that backyard flock owners, hunters and other bird enthusiasts should also take precautions. The best way to prevent H5 bird flu is to avoid exposure whenever possible. Infected birds shed avian influenza A viruses in their saliva, mucous, and feces. Other infected animals may shed avian influenza A viruses in respiratory secretions and other bodily fluids (e.g., in unpasteurized cow milk or ‘raw milk’).” • Avoid contact, use PPE, don’t touch contaminated surfaces or materials. NOTE I am not recalling a case of bird flu transmitted by raw milk, repellent and destructive though I find the raw milk grift.

Testing and Tracking: Wastewater

Some modelers are calling a winter Covid “surge” right now. Some remarks. First, I don’t use graphs like those below because I don’t regard them as actionable; I use the CDC maps because they are better able to answer questions like “Should I go to see Grandma in Wichita this Christmas?” or “Should I take that ski vacation in Colorado in January?” Further, my Covid protocols are constant; I wouldn’t vary them by the fluctuations in the graph in any case. Further, I object to calling a surge before it’s visible:

You will notice that the “surge” in this chart is all projection. Well, I’ve demonstrated in the past that CDC projections aren’t necessarily reliable; and I don’t view other models as any better; see Closed Form. So I would advocate reserving the term “surge” for an actually oberved event of some scale, and not a projection so far scaled to a ripple based on past events, as shown in this brutally and shamefully truncated CDC chart:

That Scranton Joe; he can surge with the best of ’em!

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: Walgreen’s positivity hasn’t gone up, but it hasn’t gone down, either.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC December 9 Last week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC December 7 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC December 7

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data December 16: National [6] CDC December 12:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens December 16: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic December 14:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC November 25: Variants[10] CDC November 25:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing a little more red, but nothing new at major international hubs. Interestingly, Calculated Risk is watching wastewater too.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) A little uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveled out.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today.

* * *

Manufacturing: “Boeing says it has resumed 767, 777 wide-body production” [Reuters]. “Boeing (BA.N), opens new tab said late on Tuesday it has resumed production of all airplane programs that had been halted by a machinists’ strike in the Pacific Northwest. The planemaker confirmed last week it restarted production of its best-selling 737 MAX jetliner in early December – about a month after the end of a seven-week strike by 33,000 factory workers – and said it has now resumed wide-body programs in Everett, Washington that were impacted.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stephanie Pope said in a social media post on Tuesday the company had now resumed production across its 737, 767, and 777/777X airplane programs. ‘We have taken time to ensure all manufacturing teammates are current on training and certifications, while positioning inventory at the optimal levels for smooth production,’ she added.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Starliner astronauts will return to Earth in March 2025 after new NASA, SpaceX delay” [Space.com]. “The astronaut duo who flew the first-ever crewed mission of Boeing’s Starliner capsule will have to wait a little longer to rejoin us on Earth…. The new delay will bring Wilmore and Williams’ time in space to around nine months in total — far longer than the 10 days or so their mission was originally expected to last. Though unexpectedly long, nine months is not terribly outlandish; other NASA astronauts have stayed on the ISS for far longer.”

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 50 Neutral (previous close: 51 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 51 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Dec 18 at 2:43:11 PM ET.

Mystery Drones

“The Great Drone Panic of 2024” [New York Magazine]. “Public hysterias have always surfaced from time to time, in the U.S. and everywhere else that humans happen to be. And the drones were fun, at first. On Reddit, r/UFOs is buzzing with activity as users concoct government conspiracies and dream of alien incursions from outer space. But there’s always an underbelly to contagions of this sort. Consider the great drone panic of 2024 alongside other trends, and it looks like a sign of deeper social dysfunction. America is fearful, even paranoid; it has just reelected Trump, a vengeful figure who admires dictators and strongmen and seeks retribution against liberals and the broader world order they represent. Conspiratorial thinking is not a new phenomenon in the U.S., but it is a hallmark of the MAGA movement, and Trump’s rise empowers a class of grifters who prey on ignorance and fear.” • NJ is, of course, a Blue state.

News of the Wired

“Why do people believe true things?” [Conspicuous Cognition]. “There never was a “truth” era. The dominant world religions are vast repositories of fake news and rumours; conspiracy theories are as old as humanity; and false, cartoonish, and biased narratives and ideologies are the norm throughout human history. However, it is also because I think locating modern epistemic problems in ‘misinformation’ and related buzzwords is explanatorily shallow. Once you appreciate that the truth is not the default—that it is an exceptional, fragile, improbable achievement—it should shift how you approach social epistemology. First, it should encourage a conscious rejection of naive realism. The truth is not self-evident…. Second, it should make us understand that lies, conspiracy theories, misinformation, bias, pseudo-science, superstition and so on are not alien perversions of the public sphere. They are the epistemic state of nature that society will revert to in the absence of fragile—and highly contingent—cultural and institutional achievements. Given this, the real epistemic challenge for the twenty-first century is not to combat misinformation, except insofar as doing this helps us achieve a deeper, more fundamental goal: maintaining and improving our best epistemic norms and institutions, and winning trust in, and conformity to, them.” • So, how are we doing on that?

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From SV:

SV writes: “Bubbler on African Basil.” Not sure I understand “bubbler.” This is 2:00pm, not 4:20.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

89 comments

  1. barefoot charley

    I cannot forbear slagging on the Pocahantas-slaggers. When I was young, before you had to prove anything, it was commonly said that some 30 million Americans had Cherokee blood, or at least claimed it. The mix stood to reason: it was the largest tribe in the Southeast, a ‘civilized’ tribe more slowly dispossessed until King Cotton marched all they could round up off to Oklahoma. Cherokee was a boast of all-American blood. I’m sure it was sometimes falsely claimed, but is that pride a bad thing?

    This in response to Lambert’s juridical claim that the tribes are exclusive arbiters of Native Americanness (which legally they are, for cash disbursements). Tribes claim to base membership on descent from tribal members registered by the BIA agents who collected their names in the 19th century. The idea that some racist whiskey-runner from Washington would determine their civil status 150 years later should be repulsive to the tribes, but given that casino revenues and government programs don’t grow on trees, the tribes promote this legalistic means of restricting access to tribal troughs. Many part-Indians are excluded thereby. Many Americans have a right to take pride in their family’s heritage. I respect Pocahantas’s family tradition, it’s as American as it gets, especially in Oklahoma–though her Harvard birthright is a stretch.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      I’ll have to dig out the material from actual Cherokee historians from 2016 who said Warren showed why Warren was full of it.

      Just because it’s a time-honored American tradition for random people to call themselves Cherokees does mean — follow me closely here — that they are Cherokees.

      1. Jeff W

        “Just because it’s a time-honored American tradition for random people to call themselves Cherokees does mean — follow me closely here — that they are Cherokees.”

        Maybe I’m not following you closely enough but…it does?

        1. raspberry jam

          Who is eligible for citizenship in the Cherokee Nation?

          Cherokee Nation is comprised of the descendants of Cherokees and Cherokee Freedmen who removed here to Indian Territory (present-day northeastern Oklahoma) in the 1800s, either as “Early Settlers” prior to 1830 or through forced federal relocation commonly known as the “Trail of Tears.” Cherokees who established themselves in this new land were listed on several tribal censuses. A final federal census called the Dawes Rolls was taken of tribal citizens living here from 1898-1906. To be eligible for Cherokee Nation citizenship, a person must have one or more direct ancestors listed on Dawes.

          Dawes Rolls on Wikipedia here

          1. Lambert Strether Post author

            Thank you. That should lay this stupid “You are if you say you are” talking point to rest. On being an “enrolled memnber” of the Cherokee tribe — i.e., a Cherokee, which Warren is not — see here. (My 2026 link to Cherokee historian Kim Tallbear succembed to link rot.)

      2. hk

        If people can claim to be of the gender other than their biological sex, why can’t people claim to be of any ethnicity that they’d like to be? (obviously, this is snark.)

        The seroius problem here is that some “important” people have come to associate “history of being oppressed” as the rightful claim to privilege, so the privlleged people feel that they are entitled to some history of oppression to justify their privilege, in a manner of speaking. This is not exactly new: the concept of sin and forgiveness in the way Protestantism, i nparticular (but also a theme that runs particularly in the Western Christianity) is, in a way, a sin is something to be proud of and you are entitled to force people whom you wrong to forgive you, in the name of God, no less…

    2. Michael Fiorillo

      Your last clause undermines your argument.

      When the issue first arose in public, I could understand how birthplace and family lore might have led Warren to think, correctly or not, she was part Cherokee. But at Harvard she knowingly parlayed it in a very strategic and self-serving way, and is thus deserving of the criticism and mockery she gets.

      To say nothing of staying in the 2020 primary race to insure that votes were taken away from Sanders.

      All that said, Musk is foul.

    3. Felix

      there’s a joke was going around for awhile, what do you call 64 white people in a room? A Cherokee.

      this was funny to us cause it’s been going around forever. It’s generally a female antecedent as well, a Cherokee Princess. americans indicate it’s done respectfully but everyone I know figuratively tosses it in the same dustbin that we toss similar claims about Chief Wahoo and the name Redskin. I know lots of Cherokees. Lakota, Miwok, Navajo. We all feel the same. I’m Kumeyaay/Yuma fwiw.
      I’m trying to come up with a parallel to why it bothers us. Possibly akin to someone claiming military exploits who never served. Those who serve endure things those who don’t serve never do. Our ancestors had our Nakba. MMIW is a real thing. we still have people tell us to go back where we came from. So it matters.
      Lambert thank you for understanding.

    4. Acacia

      IIRC, Warren also took a DNA test to “prove” her Native American ancestry, but the results were underwhelming. She then had to issue a public apology to Cherokee Nation the test. Their spokesperson said:

      “Senator Warren has reached out to us and has apologized to the tribe,” Hubbard said in a statement. “We are encouraged by this dialogue and understanding that being a Cherokee Nation tribal citizen is rooted in centuries of culture and laws not through DNA tests. We are encouraged by her action and hope that the slurs and mockery of tribal citizens and Indian history and heritage will now come to an end.”

    5. The Rev Kev

      It’s one thing to be at a party and call yourself part Cherokee. It is entirely another to use that bogus claim to get professional advancement over others which she did.

      Don’t forget that this is the same person who accused Bernie sanders of inappropriate sexual advances to torpedo him on behalf of the dems. She’s a snake.

    1. nyleta

      The Q3 current account for the US was out today and was horrific, can only imagine what it would be like without the shale oil. The continuing resolution being debated by the Congress makes a mockery of Mr Trumps stated intentions on the budget. This train is out of control and the new cabin crew is a mixture of opportunists and speculators and I would want 6% coupons to buy 30 year sovereign paper at the moment.

      1. ChrisFromGA

        Monetary flat spin … a theory once discussed long ago on Karl Denninger’s blog.

        Like a rookie pilot on a plane in a flat spin, our PhD’s are likely to do all the wrong moves and crash this sucker. Dow -1000 points now as I type.

        1. griffen

          Cue up the final, trading scene from the exchange in Trading Places! “Your brother’s having a heart attack!…Forget him, turn the machines back on!…”

          Turn The Machines Back On!!!

  2. DJG, Reality Czar

    Wildest Charges against Saint Luigi the Adjuster. TNR.

    At this point, everyone is a terrorist. I’m sure that Hillary Clinton will be happy to name many more fifth columnists, terrorists, deplorables, and no-good-niks. There’s nothing like good ole-fashioned name calling.

    What I don’t believe in the article is this: “Mangione was reportedly discovered with a manifesto admitting to having worked alone and explaining why he allegedly committed the violent act.”

    Saint Luigi had inside information. No one knows by pure intuition when someone is going to come out of a hotel. For that matter, how did he know which hotel Thompson was staying at? Execs regularly refuse to bivouac with the troops.

    And between his escape from NYC and his capture in Altoona, five days elapsed. Someone knows where where he was.

    Let the code of silence reign.

    1. Craig H.

      In my layman’s legal dictionary what he did was an act of rebellion or insurrection and explicitly not an act of terrorism. I guess in 2024 words mean whatever Humpty Dumpty chooses them to mean.

      1. Pat

        Considering the pretzels Bragg twisted various laws into in order to have past the statute of limitations misdemeanors turned into felony convictions for Trump did you expect him to actually go for something less inflammatory but more accurate.

        As I truly believe that Bragg’s legal and political career should die ignominiously, I fully appreciate his overplaying the Mangione indictment. It is absolutely going to end any chance of his being elected to any state and most federal offices. I look forward to the meltdown when he realizes it is a career killer and he has no where else to go.

    2. steppenwolf fetchit

      ” Saint Luigi of the Adjustication.”

      Perhaps the upper class is feeling terrorised. Perhaps the upper class has a theory that this action was meant to terrorise other health insurance companies into being more patient-friendly. And if one believes that “business is the REAL government”, then activities meant to “terrorise” business into adopting different practices really are “terrorism”.

      The problem with that theory is that it could end up giving “terrorism” a good name.

      ” One man’s Terrorist is another man’s Adjuster.”

      1. albrt

        It’s really a credibility crisis. How can a government that supports mass genocide in Palestine claim that murder is always bad? They can’t. The center cannot hold.

      2. mrsyk

        Chris Rock (who is black) zinger regarding the Adjuster and his sympathies for the victim’s family; ..but sometimes drug dealers get shot.
        Let that sink in for a moment.

      3. The Rev Kev

        It’s a pity that Luigi was not in a stand your ground State. He could have claimed that that guy was a threat to his life – medically speaking. But he will go on trial in New York where Trump has shown that they will make up the law and procedures as they go along.

      1. The Rev Kev

        Well Luigi did terrorize thousands of CEOs. Won’t somebody please think of their anguish? If another CEO gets plugged, expect the government to pass some radical crackdown laws as the Dems and Repubs go to protect the donor class, constitution be damned.

        1. Carla

          “If another CEO gets plugged, expect the government to pass some radical crackdown laws as the Dems and Repubs go to protect the donor class, constitution be damned.” Yeah, and they just. couldn’t. manage. to. do. it. for. first. second. and third. graders. Just. Couldn’t. Do it. What a revolting, disgusting country we are. We have duly earned the scorn and hatred of the world.

    3. Glen

      A little bit of history here especially for those not around to remember this:

      Oklahoma City bombing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oklahoma_City_bombing

      A Federal building bombed, 168 people dead, 19 just kids because of the proximity of the truck bomb to a day care center in the building.

      There was an effort back then to pass a law giving the FBI more authority to go after domestic terrorists, but these powers were dropped by lawmakers who argued that they would encroach on civil liberties.

      USA: US LEGISLATORS TO PASS ANTI TERRORISM BILL
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pgkIXxtWA8

      I think those concerns were legitimate back then, just as they are today.

      But now we know, if it’s a CEO, no question about it. Terrorism.

      1. pjay

        As I recall there was a significant antiterrorism bill passed after Ok City that is sometimes seen as the beginning of the expansion of the national security state that has continued to the present. There were concerns expressed about the limits on habeas corpus protections, but I don’t recall any weakening or reversal of the legislation.

        1. Glen

          I don’t consider myself an expert at this stuff. Back then I was busy just doing the best I could at work, not paying too much attention. I don’t dispute at all that the bill that was passed in 1996 was the beginning of the expansion of the security state.

          But I was definitely paying attention by the time the Patriot Act and the AUMF were passed after 9/11.

          I question whether these have actually made Americans any safer, and would welcome Congress digging in and investigating to find out (not that I expect that to happen.) The AUMF is a complete abrogation of responsibility by Congress allowing the Executive branch to use the magic password of terrorism resulting the the following (lifted from Wikipedia):

          Business Insider has reported that the AUMF has been used to allow military deployment in Afghanistan, the Philippines, Georgia, Yemen, Djibouti, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Iraq, and Somalia.[7] The 2001 AUMF has enabled the US president to unilaterally launch military operations across the world without any congressional oversight or transparency for more than two decades. Between 2018 and 2020 alone, US forces initiated what it labelled “counter-terror” activities in 85 countries. Of these, the 2001 AUMF has been used to launch classified military campaigns in at least 22 countries.

          I’m really not sure that is a policy that makes Americans safer.

          1. Eclair

            “….military deployment in Afghanistan, the Philippines, Georgia, Yemen, Djibouti, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Iraq, and Somalia.”

            Might we consider The Adjuster’s action to be “military deployment?”

  3. Erstwhile

    Great story about Trump suing the Des Moines Register. Keep us informed. We would very much like to know what the world we’re living in looks like.

  4. Michael McK

    I think “bubbler” in the platidote should be “bumbler” as in the Bumble Bee on it’s base.

  5. Tom Stone

    Mangione claims to have use “Social engineering” to determine where Thompson was staying and where he would be.
    I find that claim plausible as someone who was once adept at both technical skiptracing and social skiptracing.
    Quite a few people knew Thompson’s schedule, all you have to do is ask the right person in the right way and they will be happy to help.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Mangione claims to have use “Social engineering” to determine where Thompson was staying and where he would be.

      I would like to have this explained; it’s a loose end.

      1. albrt

        “Social engineering” is a security tech euphemism for tricking people into revealing passwords or other confidential information by a variety of means including fraud, phishing messages, or just being nice to them.

          1. Acacia

            For example, he calls the hotel lobby from his burner phone and says something clever that tips the staff into revealing whether or not his mark is staying there, or not. They won’t give out a room number, of course, but Luigi wouldn’t need to know that.

          2. albrt

            Fair enough, and perhaps that will come out eventually. But the fact that he used the term suggests that he had at least a basic understanding of the problem set. A lot of people in the United States have an understanding of that problem set, and 100% of the oligarchs in the United States are dependent on people who fall within the domain of the problem set. Just sayin’.

            Hmm, maybe Luigi’s methods won’t come out eventually.

      2. lyman alpha blob

        I assumed he meant he buttered up a doorman or a concierge. You’d think the cops would interview the hotel staff working that morning, but we haven’t heard anything about that happening.

        If a stranger gave a doorman $100 to ping them when Mr. CEO came out, maybe with a story about being a relative who wanted to surprise him, I can also understand why that person might not be talking given what actually happened.

    2. johnherbiehancock

      That UnitedHealth had their annual meeting in NYC on those dates was public information available on their website (link).

      Company investor relations pages (UHG’s included) typically have contacts for investors seeking more information available on their pages. Looks like UHG had the phone number & name of their investor relations person on the page.

      Mangione could have just called them, claimed to be a shareholder or an analyst, and gotten information about the specific location (ie the hotel) & times of the events and who would be speaking when.

      Spitballing more from here, but then maybe he could’ve posed as a hotel employee and called the CEO’s admin or chief of staff (which would’ve likely been available on linkedin) to get more specific information about his itinerary?

      and/or maybe just got lucky figuring he’d wait outside the hotel in the morning and evening and see if an opportunity presented itself?

      I don’t know how much precise information he could’ve gotten on the CEO’s movements or whether it would even be practical or useful.

      I learned all this from watching a video our IT dept. makes us watch about not falling for social engineering scams!

    3. kriptid

      This isn’t so miraculous as many have been portraying. United had their annual investor day scheduled at that hotel and the schedule and list of guests is easily obtainable in advance. So Luigi could easily have known roughly when/where the execs would be arriving, no social engineering of note required.

      Given this, I am also skeptical that Luigi specifically had a plan to target Thompson; likely he would targeted any of the other senior management as well, Thompson was jist unlucky. Keep in mind that Thompson was CEO of the insurance division of United and is not the CEO of United itself. Luigi could have easily targeted any of the others and achieved the same effect.

      1. lyman alpha blob

        Many conferences will have a list of recommended hotels for conference attendees – conference organizers make deals with nearby hotels all the time. It would be very easy to get a list of the handful of recommended ones ahead of time.

    4. Mirjonray

      Drawing from my years as a low-level administative grunt, I have my own theory about Luigi’s “social engineering”. A great many workers are one black mark away from getting fired. If someone calls and demands information (e.g., when will Thompson arrive at the hotel?), and threatens to complain to your boss if you don’t cooperate, it will seem like a good idea to give up the information and get rid of the caller ASAP.

  6. IM

    “Bumbler” perhaps instead of bubbler? I guess bumblebees are bumblers, though I had never thought of it this way before. Maybe there is also a bunglebee somewhere.

  7. Deschain

    Terrorism is violence against the genpop to erode their support for the ruling class.
    Luigi did violence against the ruling class and is getting support (or at least, empathy) from the genpop.
    It’s not terrorism. What should we call it? Confidence-ism? Courage-ism?

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Terrorism is violence against the genpop to erode their support for the ruling class.

      It would be very like our elites to completely invert a concept in defense of their own class interests. I mean, if a CEO is terrified, does that imply “terrorism”? Seems odd.

  8. Lambert Strether Post author

    I have added orts ands scraps, later than usual because consolidating the Bragg material on Mangione took some time (as did creating the hypothetical, lawyerly comments welcome).

    On Mangione, it looks to me like Bragg is “upselling”* the murder change to terrorism, exactly as he “upsold” Trump’s misdemeanors to felonies (and for the same purpose of political advancement).

    NOTE * I think there’s a legal term of art for “upselling” but I forget what it is. Readers?

    1. Paul Beard

      I’ve heard it referred to as barratry in the UK in the same way as bringing cases solely for the lawyers gain

    2. jm

      I get that Bragg is playing to his base (i.e., the donor class), but is this suite of charges a wise legal strategy? If I were on the jury I’d vote against any of the charges tied to terrorism, and feel good doing so, just because they are literally ridiculous. On the charge of straight up second degree murder, I likely also vote to acquit because it carries a mandatory life without parole sentence, which doesn’t seem fair since Mangione can plausibly argue his action was justifiable homicide given UHC’s history under Thompson and the government’s inertia with respect to health insurance reform. The rest of the charges are comparatively minor. Not sure at this point how I feel about them, but part of me would be inclined to vote for acquittal just as a way to raise a middle finger to Bragg for putting his thumb so heavily on the scale, so to speak. I bet that many, many people in the actual potential jury pool feel similarly.

      That said, like several others have commented, I will be shocked if this case goes to trial. The powers that be definitely don’t want these issues getting continual above-the- fold attention.

    3. dommage

      Overcharging. Can open possibilities for defense counsel when plea bargaining (its usual use) is not at issue, as here. Bragg’s crude motive is on record, with the terrorism overcharge on conviction the court has no discretion in sentencing, life without parole is mandatory. War story: in my youth, together with my best lawyer friend (still fifty years later) represented in the waning days of the Vietnam War an “activist” whom the government believed had blown up four power towers leading to a military facility. We went to the Supremes to get bail, and got it. He could have been charged with destruction of government property, but the USAttorney chose four charges of sabotage, that had a far more severe (including life) penalty. But sabotage has as an element of the offense that it occurs in a time of war or national emergency. Since there had been no declaration of war or of a national emergency in relation to Vietnam, we moved to dismiss. The government replied that there was a national emergency in effect, the one declared at the time of the Korean War and never “undeclared.” The court held it was an issue of law rather than fact, and up to him. At the hearing we produced the charming elderly (though younger than I am now) gentleman who had drafted the 1950 national declaration, who testified that its rationale was the Korean War, and that the Korean War emergency was, more than twenty years later, over. The Judge, though troubled, unsurprisingly let the case proceed on the grounds that the declaration had not been “undeclared.” The trial was close, the jury divided, and was charged to go back and reach a verdict (a “dynamite charge” – which here was the efficient cause of the toppling of the towers) , and chose a “compromise” and acquitted on two towers and convicted on the others, though the evidence was the same. Sympathy for even violent opposition to the Vietnam War was patent at the time. (Not unlike that against United Deathcare today) The judge continued bail pending appeal, making clear that the overcharge was on his mind. The U.S. Circuit Court panel unanimously threw the conviction out, on the grounds of “notice.” That is, while it is no defense to say that you subjectively did not know that doing an act was the crime at issue, if you had inquired you could have been able to find out. And in this case whether the Korean War national emergency was still in effect was unknowable. Double jeopardy applied, and our client went back to Maine where he kept bees, raised goats and rabbits, did what he could for those poor ill and disabled in his community, and died some three years ago at the age of 78 with obituaries filled with praise (& that did not mention our case). He only did the months time before we got him bail from Justice Brennan. One result was federal legislation that aimed to clear up how “National Emergencies” arise and terminate. While I’m unable to comment on the ins and outs of getting a justification defense (or defense from “social murder”) before a New York jury (it’s notoriously difficult), the “terrorism” overcharge opens a wide range of opportunity, facing the trial judge with multiple possibilities for error, and defense counsel with opportunities to get the issue of political intent before the jury. The reality is that public sympathy for the political motive was critical to our success, more than out youthful legal energy.

      1. Art Vandalay

        Once again, the NC commentariat is the best commentariat. Thank you for the education and for the service your younger self rendered to the cause of justice.

    4. Pat

      Somewhat to repeat myself, but this failure to read the room is going to make Bragg’s future political career almost nonexistent. Short of running unopposed or in a CEO laden district where the average income is the high six figures that come with platinum level benefit packages, he will lose. He isn’t that popular statewide in NY anyway, but picking the criminal the majority of voters across the political spectrum aren’t interested in throwing the book at to spruce up your hard on crime bonafides is just going to lose him more support, even in the metro areas.

      I also think it leaves the whole prosecution open to jury nullification that kills it entirely, but that is another discussion.

    5. mcwoot

      How can there be 2 murder charges when there is only one body? Feels like they should be required to pick one?

  9. Jason Boxman

    by Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg on Tuesday

    So we can look forward to him creatively arguing the law in this case. I wonder if the judge will allow multiple choice charges as well?

  10. flora

    Taibbi’s latest. No paywall. ( Note: his Racket substack is acting strange today, at least on my browser. Maybe a setting changed somewhere.)

    Twitter Files Extra: How the Files Could Help Incoming Investigators
    Two years ago, Twitter emails offered voters a peek at state sensorship. Now, they can be a road map for incoming investigators. Where they might search for wrongdoing

    https://www.racket.news/p/twitter-files-extra-how-the-files

    1. Procopius

      Well, he’s South African, so maybe English is his second language, and he grew up speaking Afrikaans.

  11. Carolinian

    Re the Red State article–did read and would say it’s not so much that red states are a myth as that the notion that the Dems and Repubs are significantly different is a myth–albeit one held close over at The Nation. Eventually their one time star (to some of us) Alex Cockburn abandoned their blue state headquarters and headed to purplish rural California after first stopping off here in SC to buy one of his beloved land yachts to get there.

    As for Walz, middle of the road if not outright conservative Kirn pegged him as a phony through and through. So it could be what the plebes really seek is a little of authenticity from whatever direction.

    I live in a red state and will suggest it’s a lot closer to the upper Midwest than one might think. Rural versus urban is a thing and lower middle class versus the super rich. But worrying about the fate of the Dems is pointless. They are barely a political part at all these days.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Kirn

      IMNSHO Kirn is a mixed bag whose statements must be scrutinized carefully.

      So the assumption here is that the baseline for non-phoniness in our political class is relatively high?

      1. Carolinian

        Sky high. When did politicians start being taken so seriously anyway? Over to you Mark Twain.

        As for Kirn, he makes much of the fact that Walz didn’t seem to know how to use that gun he was carrying and cheered on the BLM rioters in his state.

        But Kirn also doesn’t like hearing criticism of the Israelis so he’s hardly a hero to me. Nevertheless if Kirn, onetime Minnesota person, says Walz is a phony I’m willing to believe him. And if someone from The Nation suggests otherwise I’m willing to be skeptical.

        1. Lambert Strether Post author

          > onetime Minnesota person

          As many Minnesotans still are, who voted him in, and for reasonably “progressive” policies. As for the gun, I could care less what the campaign got him into, or what gun-humpers excite themselves about. Although it was great to see the pushback from Kamala’s campaign when the dogpile started. Oh, wait….

  12. XXYY

    The mechanized hum of another world” [Closed Form]

    Steely Dan fans (count me in) will recognize this title as being pulled from the lyrics of a Dan song Don’t Take Me Alive.

    Interestingly, this song was drawn from the life of David Sylvan Fine, the youngest of the Sterling Hall bombers (at the University of Wisconsin- Madison) who was captured in San Rafael, California in January of 1976. Despite the title of the song, he was taken alive, spent three years in prison and eventually became a paralegal in Oregon.

    He bears some superficial references to the present day Adjuster (including very dark eyebrows) as someone who was willing to go to great lengths to express his political viewpoint.

    We may perhaps take heart from the fact that he was given a relatively short prison term and went on to lead a productive life.

    1. Divadab

      I’m a bookkeeper’s son
      I don’t want to hurt no one
      But I crossed my old man down in Oregon
      Don’t take me alive

  13. Steve H.

    > “Why do people believe true things?” [Conspicuous Cognition]. “There never was a “truth” era.

    A good antidote for post-truth wormholes. Tho there is a discontinuity that the ‘fragile institutions’ allowing rational pursuit are built on various forms of exploited workers. Ah, well.

  14. Wukchumni

    ‘Twas the week before Christmas, when all through the house
    The Ethics Committee was stirring, using a mouse;
    The report was to be released before Xmas with care,
    In hopes that sordid details soon would be there;
    The Republicans were nestled all snug in their beds;
    While visions of a triple majority danced in their heads;
    And mamma in her ‘kerchief, and I in my cap,
    Had just settled our brains for a long winter’s nap,
    When out on the internet there arose such a clatter,
    I sprang from my bed to see what was the matter.
    Away opening a window I flew like a flash,
    Tore open a new tab and smoked up my stash.
    The hurt on the hip of the new-fallen Pelosi,
    Gave an image of father time to objects below following closely,
    When what to my wondering eyes did appear,
    But the Freedom Caucus and eight tiny rain men & women, oh dear!
    With the ex wrestling coach so lively and quick,
    I knew in a moment he must be in good nick.
    More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,
    And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name:
    “Now, Gosar! now, Boebert! now Higgins and Harris!
    On, Roy! on, Clyde! on Luna, and Perry!
    Do your best denials! let someone else take the fall!
    Now dash away! dash away! dash away all!”

  15. JohnnySacks

    Fetterman can’t possibly go, he’s vital to the party’s replacement cast of villains now that Manchin and Sinema are gone.

  16. ChrisPacific

    Re: five strategies

    It continues to astonish me that topics like culture war and immigration are described as ‘progressive’. Both seem firmly entrenched in the party mainstream to me, and in fact Bernie used to get called racist for not talking about them enough. Identity politics (which I think is what ‘culture war’ refers to) is greatly beloved by the consulting class and forms a cornerstone of most mainstream Democratic campaigns. ‘Children in cages’ was a rallying cry for the party during the Trump era. Now that both have failed yet again, somehow the big bad progressives made us do it?

  17. The Rev Kev

    ‘Prof Zenkus
    @anthonyzenkus
    One thing I haven’t heard spoken about regarding Chris Rock’s recent SNL appearance: At the beginning of his monologue, Rock said
    “We got Luigi”. Not one person clapped. He then repeated it. Still no one clapped.’

    So much for reading the audience. Guess all of them have had their own hassles with medical insurance corporations, especially since Romneycare came in. But something tells me that Hollywood will never, ever make a film about this nor touch it with a ten foot barge pole. Too many class live wires.

  18. Wukchumni

    War On Cash® news:
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    A lawsuit challenging the National Park Service’s move to eliminate cash in visitor transactions should be dismissed because the plaintiffs have failed to prove they have been harmed by the policy and because federal regulations don’t require the agency to accept cash for its services, according to the federal government.

    In the lawsuit filed back in May the plaintiffs said the policy is unreasonable and an abuse of discretion and that federal law states that legal tender is suitable “for all public charges.”

    Esther van der Werf of Ojai, California, Toby Stover, of High Falls, New York, and Elizabeth Dasburg, of Darien, Georgia, brought the lawsuit after being told their U.S. currency would not be accepted for entry into Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument, Tonto National Monument, Saguaro National Park, Roosevelt-Vanderbilt National Historic Site, and Fort Pulaski National Monument.

    “NPS’s violation of federal law cannot be overlooked in favor of any purported benefit NPS cashless could hope to achieve, such as reducing logistics of handling cash collected,” reads a section of the lawsuit. “Moreover, there is an increased cost to the NPS in going cashless, such as additional processing fees that will be borne by NPS and by visitors who ultimately fund the federal government through taxes, in addition to personal surcharges and bank fees visitors may incur under NPS cashless policy.”

    In its response [attached below], filed in July, the government said the lawsuit should be dismissed because the plaintiffs “lack standing to challenge the alleged cashless entry program because they have not pled that they personally lack the ability to pay the entrance fee using accepted non-cash methods. Their alleged injury —in fact their failure to enter certain national parks on the few occasions identified in the Complaint—is based only on principle, a belief that they have a ‘lawful right’ to pay in cash.”

    https://www.nationalparkstraveler.org/2024/12/government-seeks-dismiss-lawsuit-over-national-park-services-cashless-policy

    1. Carolinian

      It sounds like they do have that lawful right. Just because the parks now want to be Disney nature theme parks doesn’t mean they can treat the public as cavalierly as Disney does. If you drive a thousand miles to a park and can’t get in with legal tender then that’s a new chipping away of the rights of citizens who in the aggregate do, after all, own the parks and pay the ticket takers’ salaries. How many more steps before the government actually sells the parks to Disney?

      Even if one wanted to defend the plastic only policy for souvenirs and such, denying admission is pretty outrageous IMO.

  19. Escapee

    “Why do people believe true things?” [Conspicuous Cognition].

    Second, it should make us understand that lies, conspiracy theories, misinformation, bias, pseudo-science, superstition and so on are not alien perversions of the public sphere. They are the epistemic state of nature that society will revert to in the absence of fragile—and highly contingent—cultural and institutional achievements.

    Chas Freeman on his latest Dialogue Works interview recommended a recent talk at Georgetown by a former Portuguese diplomat that touches on the above claim. I tracked it down and was not disappointed. One hour. Gaza, Ukraine and the Remaking of Global Order Stimulating, if sobering stuff.

    He makes use of a four-quadrant ideology chart that pigeon-holes what he basically claims are the four logically possible positions on the Palestine/Ukraine situations: Westerners, Anti-Westerners, Darwinists, Universalists. It’s an interesting mirror.

    And in the Q&A at the end, his answer to a “role of the Cold War” question touches on the article above.

  20. ChriaFromGA

    The latest porkulus drama is that Trump and Vance want to deep-six the “Christmas tree” CR to fund the government until March.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5047382-trump-government-spending-deal/

    We know that our DC clowns added $100B in disaster relief which to me sounds insane. Some of the loss from Helene and Milton was insured. Then you had a buttload of private money raised by disaster relief groups. That suspiciously nice round big number smells like pork to me.

    I realize that there are some infrastructure needs that the private sector can’t cover, like rebuilding washed out bridges … but $100 Freaking Billion? Isn’t that more than most federal agencies get for the entire fiscal year?

    I mean, that’s Ukraine level spending.

    And I read that the bill itself is 1200 pages … there are bound to be some real stinkers buried in there. Maybe naming one of those bridges they’re gonna need to rebuild after Zelensky?

    (You cross Vladimir Zelensky memorial bridge on I-40 you pay toll … 10 percent to the big guy!)

  21. r. clayton

    But I don’t agree that “members mostly make decisions based on their own interests.” If that were true, there would be no need for party whips.

    How do you figure that? The whips are there to make sure members’ interests, or their actions, are consistent with party interests. Or, more benignly, whips count votes, make sure members are on the floor, things like that.

  22. Jason Boxman

    The elite in Rome favored killing when it suited them. From The Collapse of Antiquity.

    The murder pushed the preceding half-century’s oligarchic wave of political assassination to a level of normalcy. The violence had started with opposition to the Gracchi and their followers advocating land reform. Then came the killing of Saturninus and Servilius in 100 for seeking to give land to Marius’s veterans. In 88 the creditor elite opposed debt relief even for wealthy members of their own class. Killing Asellio for trying to find some way to bring debts into line with the ability to pay established the oligarchic tradition of using killing as a normal political tactic free of punishment or even inquiry.

    Here they squeal when it’s one of their own though.

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