By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, Miller Drive Roost (Brewer Park), Miami-Dade, Florida, United States. Very pretty!
In Case You Might Miss…
- H1B controversy rolls along.
- Trump’s AI czar helping H1Bers with fraudulent remittances.
- Norovirus surge.
- Amazon attacks third-party sellers again.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)
“Trial of man accused in Trump assassination attempt in Florida pushed back to September” [Associated Press]. “Ryan Routh’s trial will begin Sept. 8 instead of the previously scheduled Feb. 10, 2025 start date, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon said in an order released on Monday…. Routh’s attorneys had asked the judge to delay the trial until no earlier than next December, saying they needed more time to review the evidence against him and decide whether to mount an insanity defense. Routh owned 17 cellphones and numerous other electronic devices, and there are hundreds of hours of police body camera and surveillance videos that have been provided to the defense, Routh’s attorneys argued during a hearing two weeks ago in Fort Pierce, Florida. In her order, Cannon said she wanted to err on the side of providing more time given the seriousness of the allegations, but that starting the trial no earlier than December would be an excessive amount. A September trial date didn’t amount to an ‘unreasonable delay,’ she said…. The judge said that any insanity defense or any request related to Routh’s mental competency must be made by early February. Any visit to the scene of the assassination attempt must be made by the end of February.”
Trump Transition
“The Great Fake H1-B Controversy” [Roger Simon, American Refugees]. “This fits the internal MAGA dispute over H1-B visas to the proverbial T. The only ones who profit from this kerfuffle, or whatever it is, are the left and their fading media allies, desperate for something to latch onto about MAGA and create dissension.” It’s so funny to see party regulars, of whichever party, coming up with the same talking points.
“Steve Bannon Slams ‘Toddler’ Elon Musk After Tesla Owner Tells Critics To ‘F**k Yourself In the Face’ As MAGA Civil War Rages On” [Mediaite]. “Someone please notify ‘Child Protective Services’— need to do a ‘wellness check’ on this toddler,’ Bannon wrote on Gettr on Friday night in response to Musk telling his critics to ‘fuck yourself in the face.’… In followup posts on Gettr, Bannon argued that H-1B visas are used as a ‘tool’ of the tech industry to drive wages down [correct] and he told Musk to ‘bring it.’… On his War Room podcast on Friday, Bannon referred to tech leaders like Musk as ‘on the spectrum’ and incapable of taking criticism. ‘The nerds don’t take criticism,’ he said. ‘They’re kind of, you know, they’re a little bit all on the spectrum, right? They don’t know– they’re not deep in social skills.'” • Not sure Bannon is all that strong on social skills either. Or the political class generally, lacking empathy as they seem to do. Commentary:
Who the fuck tells millions of Americans to go fuck themselves in the face and then tells them a day later to post more positivity?
— Donhammed Trumpistan (@TheRealDon85) December 29, 2024
Can confirm I saw both of President Musk’s tweets go by.
Democrats en déshabillé
That’s the stuff to give the troops:
The Green Party spoiled another major race for us (PA SEN), just the latest on a very long list.
As @DNC Chair, I’ll go on permanent offense, not just taking up the legal fight during ballot access. We’ll dismantle these Republican-enablers’ infrastructure. The gloves come off.
— James Skoufis (@JamesSkoufis) December 27, 2024
“As DNC chair, I’ll keep Greens off the ballot!”
“Is the Democratic brand toxic? A growing number of Dems wonder if going ‘independent’ will help them win” [Politico]. “A group of operatives at major Democratic media firms are in talks about creating a company that would help elect left-leaning independents, according to a person familiar with the discussions who was granted anonymity to talk about internal planning. The business would also back populist Democrats.” • Oh, swell.
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Luigi Mangione’s indictment is another example of the dangers of terror charges” [TruthOut]. “Tacking terrorism onto the indictment allows the district attorney to upgrade the murder charges from the second to the first degree; under New York law, first-degree murder charges are normally reserved for crimes like serial or mass killings or the murder of police officers…. It’s hard not to see the bloated charges in the context of Mangione’s recent ascent to quasi-folk hero status…. This outpouring of public resentment has unnerved health care executives. Corporations scrambled to scrub information about their C-suites from the internet and called up private security details. Bragg made a broad reference to this fear in a press conference. ‘This was a killing that was intended to evoke terror and we’ve seen that reaction,’ he told reporters on December 17. ‘This was not an ordinary killing.'” • With a good review of other “terrorism” charges, including camping at Cop City.
“UnitedHealthcare taught us ways to deny claims: Former employee” [NewsNation]. ” A former UnitedHealthcare claims representative says employees were systematically trained to deny medical claims and rush distressed customers off phone lines, revealing internal practices at the nation’s largest health insurer amid growing scrutiny of the industry. Natalie Collins, who worked for UnitedHealthcare for nine months, said Saturday on ‘NewsNation Prime’ that staff received ‘so many different ways to deny’ claims during their two to three months of training, with supervisors often standing behind representatives instructing them on denial methods. ‘We weren’t given proper instruction to actually pay the claim, and there wasn’t enough monies in certain files in certain companies to pay medical claims,’ Collins said. ‘We would have to just get the client off the phone as fast as we could.'”
* * * “Kansas once required voters to prove citizenship. That didn’t work out so well” [Associated Press]. “Kansas imposed a proof-of-citizenship requirement over a decade ago that grew into one of the biggest political fiascos in the state in recent memory. The law, passed by the state Legislature in 2011 and implemented two years later, ended up blocking the voter registrations of more than 31,000 U.S. citizens who were otherwise eligible to vote. That was 12% of everyone seeking to register in Kansas for the first time. Federal courts ultimately declared the law an unconstitutional burden on voting rights, and it hasn’t been enforced since 2018. Kansas provides a cautionary tale about how pursuing an election concern that in fact is extremely rare risks disenfranchising a far greater number of people who are legally entitled to vote. The state’s top elections official, Secretary of State Scott Schwab, championed the idea as a legislator and now says states and the federal government shouldn’t touch it. ‘Kansas did that 10 years ago,’ said Schwab, a Republican. ‘It didn’t work out so well.'”
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
“Norovirus cases are rising in the U.S., CDC data shows” [Axios]. Cases of a highly contagious stomach bug are rising across the U.S., according to new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Norovirus can cause ghastly bouts of vomiting and diarrhea as a result of inflammation of the of the stomach and intestines, per the CDC. It’s also the number one cause of foodborne illness in the U.S., according to the health agency…. The virus often spreads in ‘confined spaces’ like cruise ships, day care centers, and college dorms, the journal added.” • Tranmission is said to be droplet-based: Vomit, feces… So I had to check, “confined spaces” being a red flag–
“Aerosol Transmission of Norovirus” [Viruses]. “Norovirus (NoV) is a major cause of acute gastroenteritis outbreaks worldwide. A comprehensive understanding of the transmission mode is of great significance for the prevention and control of the NoV infection. Currently, the transmission modes of NoV include contact, food-borne, water-borne and aerosol transmission. The first three modes are more common, while aerosol transmission is seldom reported…. NoV aerosol transmission often occurs simultaneously with person-to-person transmission, including the contact with infected individuals and contaminated environments. Therefore, a rigorous investigation and analysis are required when determining the transmission mode. There is also a lack of standard sampling equipment and procedures for viral aerosols, which hinders a better understanding of the source, concentration, particle size, residence time, movement and distribution of viral aerosols. In addition, we need to establish an effective in vitro culture system to evaluate the infectivity of NoV aerosols, which is another challenge that that is currently exists. At present, most cases of NoV aerosols are related to vomiting, and diarrhea-related ones are less common. Further research is needed to investigate the role of diarrhea and toilet flushing in the transmission of NoV aerosols, including the concentration of aerosols in toilets and their infectivity. Recent reports have indicated salivary transmission as a new mode of transmission [74]. Therefore, it is essential to explore whether activities such as coughing, talking, sneezing and other behaviors of infected individuals contribute to the aerosol transmission of NoV. It is necessary to further explore the aerosol transmission mechanism of NoV to provide a theoretical basis for formulating prevention and control policies.” • We don’t know because we’re not checking. Can’t we at least rule aerosol transmission out?
Lambert here: A little more orange and red around Ohio; no rise at JFK, EWR, ORD, LAX.
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC December 16 | Last week[2] CDC (until next week): |
|
|
|
| Variants [3] CDC December 21 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC December 21 |
|
|
|
| Hospitalization | |
| ★New York[5] New York State, data December 27: | National [6] CDC December 26: |
|
|
|
| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens December 23: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic December 14: |
|
|
|
| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity[9] CDC December 9: | Variants[10] CDC December 9 |
|
|
|
| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20: |
|
|
|
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Seeing more red and more orange, but nothing new at major hubs.
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.
[4] (ED) A little uptick.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Slow and small but steady increase.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.
[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.
[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.
[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Chicago PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped further to 36.9 in December 2024, compared to November’s 40.2 and missing market forecasts of 42.5. The latest data indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the 13th consecutive month, recording its steepest decline since May.”
Manufacturing: “United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Dallas Fed’s Texas manufacturing activity index moved up six points to 3.4 in December 2024, its first positive reading since April 2022.”
Retail: “Amazon sellers are in revolt over a new policy they say hurts profits and gives up guarded business data” [Modern Retail]. ” Starting March 10, 2025, Amazon will only pay back sellers for the product manufacturing cost, not the full retail cost, which is how the e-tailer currently reimburses sellers for lost or damaged items. … What’s more, in order to calculate the payouts, sellers have one of two options. They can let Amazon determine the manufacturing cost. In the announcement, Amazon said such estimates would be ‘based on a comprehensive evaluation of comparable products sold by Amazon, by other sellers and through wholesale channel.’ Still, sellers who spoke to Modern Retail said they’re worried that this could lead to inaccurate or low-ball estimates. Alternatively, sellers can provide their manufacturing costs, such as proof of cost of sourcing, directly to Amazon. For sellers, this raises serious privacy concerns over how exactly their private manufacturing cost data will be used.” Indeed! More: “A Wall Street Journal investigation from 2020 found that Amazon has allegedly used data from third-party sellers to help develop its private-label goods. Brands have claimed that Amazon copies their products and undercuts them with prices that make it difficult to compete. Amazon has since pulled back on its private-label business to alleviate regulatory scrutiny. … To AmpliSell’s [Joshua] Rawe, Amazon sellers have two ‘closely guarded secrets’: one, their manufacturing cost data. And two, who their manufacturer is. ‘With Amazon saying, ‘Hey, give us your cost,’ that’s like giving up your competitive advantage to these sellers,’ Rawe said. ‘They’re like, ‘Well if I give you my cost, you’re going to go out and figure out how to source it cheaper and create an Amazon brand of my product.’ That’s every seller’s worst fear.'” • In the midst of being sued by FTC as a monopoly, too.
Manufacturing: “South Korea to inspect Boeing aircraft as it struggles to find cause of plane crash that killed 179” [Associated Press]. “The Boeing 737-800 plane operated by South Korean budget airline Jeju Air aborted its first landing attempt for reasons that aren’t immediately clear. Then, during its second landing attempt, it received a bird strike warning from the ground control center before its pilot issued a distress signal. The plane landed without its front landing gear deployed, overshot the runway, slammed into a concrete fence and burst into a fireball. Alan Price, a former chief pilot at Delta Air Lines and now a consultant, said the Boeing 737-800 is a ‘proven airplane’ that belongs to a different class of aircraft than the Boeing 737 Max jetliner that was linked to fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019.” Oh. More: “Video of the crash indicated that the pilots did not deploy flaps or slats to slow the aircraft, suggesting a possible hydraulic failure, and did not manually lower the landing gear, suggesting they did not have time, said John Cox, a retired airline pilot and CEO of Safety Operating Systems in St. Petersburg, Florida.” And: “Other observers said the videos showed the plane was suffering from suspected engine trouble but the landing gear malfunction was likely a direct reason for the crash. They said there wouldn’t likely be a link between the landing gear problem and the suspected engine issue. Earlier Monday, another Boeing 737-800 plane operated by Jeju Air returned to Seoul’s Gimpo International Airport shortly after takeoff when the pilot detected a landing gear issue.” And: “Joo said officials were reviewing whether there might have been communication problems between air traffic controllers and the pilot.” • Hmm.
Manufacturing: “South Korea tragedy is ninth incident with Boeing this YEAR including 6,000ft drop, in-flight fire, Vilnius airport crash…as well as mysterious death of safety whistleblower” [Daily Mail]. • A good, and sadly lengthy, roundup.
Tech: “Elon Musk’s xAI Secures Funding of $6B as Grok Transforms X” [NASDAQ]. “Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence venture, xAI, has secured a staggering $6 billion in its latest funding round, according to a TechCrunch report, citing a Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Thursday. This brings the company’s total capital raised to $12 billion in just one year, signaling its rise in the competitive AI landscape….. According to a Financial Times report, only existing xAI investors were eligible to participate in this round, with up to 25% of shares reserved for those who had supported Musk’s acquisition of the social media platform Twitter, now called X. This exclusive approach indicates Musk’s strategy of rewarding loyal stakeholders while aiming for xAI’s rumored valuation of $50 billion.”
Tech: “Elon Musk’s xAI lands $6B in new cash to fuel AI ambitions” [TechCrunch]. “X recently got a ‘Grok button’ designed to help users discover ‘relevant context’ and dive deeper into trending discussions and real-time events.” • If I were Elon, I’d be feeding the X firehouse right into Groks’s training sets (autocoprophagy in near-real time), because the potential for manipulation is obvious.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 30 Fear (previous close: 34 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 29 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed).Last updated Dec 30 at 2:36:02 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes down one on drought. “Rain chips away at general drought conditions” [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 181. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Hard to believe the Rapture Index isn’t at an all-time high. Doesn’t the collapse of Syria bring the Third Temple closer? Do these people know something we don’t?
Gallery
Luigi?
Caravaggio pic.twitter.com/vA3No66R05
— Art Gallery (@X_ArtGallery) December 15, 2024
Healthcare
“Long COVID Lawsuits Coming, but Not Likely to Succeed” [MedScape]. ” just when COVID lawsuits appear to be dwindling out, legal experts see a new lawsuit risk on the horizon — long COVID claims. While some say it’s doubtful the claims will succeed, the lawsuits could still create legal headaches for doctors in the form of time and money. Long COVID claims are defined as complaints that allege that a diagnosis of long COVID was missed or delayed and that caused harm or injury. Lawsuits may also include claims in which patients allege that they were misdiagnosed as having long COVID when they were really suffering from another condition. The risk of long COVID lawsuits underscores the importance of physicians taking proactive steps to protect themselves from liability when treating patients who might have the condition, say legal experts. ‘There are legal standards that say new, unestablished scientific principles shouldn’t be first tested by a jury, they should be recognized and established within their [professional] area,” Kolbert said. ‘While we are seeing lawsuits related to long COVID, I think it is truly putting the cart before the horse, because there needs to be societal recognition that we’re still learning how to define and treat long COVID.'” • Maybe, but when we leave the horse in front of the cart, nothing happens either….
“By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI” [Effective Altruism Forum]. “First: labour means human mental and physical effort that produces something of value. Capital goods are things like factories, data centres, and software—things humans have built that are used in the production of goods and services. I’ll use ‘capital’ to refer to both the stock of capital goods and to the money that can pay for them. I’ll say “money” when I want to exclude capital goods. The key economic effect of AI is that it makes capital a more and more general substitute for labour. There’s less need to pay humans for their time to perform work, because you can replace that with capital (e.g. data centres running software replaces a human doing mental labour).” • “Always was.” Commentary:
Interestingly parallel to Wilhoit: “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”
“Here Come The Anti-Woke Venture Capitalists” [Forbes]. “Earlier this year, a little-known company called New Founding made headlines when it announced plans to build a Christian enclave in Kentucky — an ‘aligned community” where owners could ‘disappear from the cultural insanity of the broader country.’ But building a village was just the beginning. Now, New Founding has launched a venture capital fund to invest in what it calls ‘aligned companies,’ startups that oppose progressive ideologies and are intent on both ‘cultural and economic disruption.’ It’s one of a small but growing number of VCs vocally rejecting ‘wokeism’ and building their investment thesis on core conservative values… New Founding CEO Nate Fischer told Forbes these investments are the beginnings of a ‘parallel economy’ offering conservative versions of mainstream services it views as too liberal, like Google’s ad-tech products. ‘There’s a large share of people who feel that their views are almost entirely absent from the institutions that are shaping the future,’ Fischer explained. ‘And there’s a real acute need and hunger for alternatives.”… At least one Silicon Valley leader is on board. Marc Andreessen — a cofounder of the venture giant Andreessen Horowitz, or A16z, who has also railed against ‘wokeism’ — is among those backing New Founding’s venture fund.” • Why have we put the people who enshittified Google, social media, and every platform they’ve touched in charged of society-wide capital allocation?
Neoliberalism’s inflection point in the real economy?
Why is 1971 such an inflection point in so many data sets? pic.twitter.com/S5c6SQxlU3
— 0x146.gfy (@The0xReport) December 28, 2024
Did we not discuss this topic at some point? I used to collect charts like this. Like when real wages flattened.
78 comments
Comments are closed.
I saw the second round of lilac blossoms in west central Minnesota in early October this year, too, and had never seen that before.
We’re in a drought there, and I believe that I had watered thoroughly a few weeks earlier, so that may have been what confused the plant.
Yep, I also saw some strange blooms in October – the warmest September on record was a big influence: UMN climate summary for Sept
Doge Eat D.O.G.E.
(Sung to the tune of, “Dog eat Dog” by Ted Nugent)
Sabotage on the MAGA streets
A Speaker overturned
You can’t do nothing to beat the heat
And if you don’t, you’ll get burned
Bloated gubmint behind every door
Cost more than you got
You best be up if
You want some more
Cause if you don’t
Your WFH is shot!
[Chorus]
Doge, Doge, Doge eat D.O.G.E.
Doge, Doge, Doge eat D.O.G.E.
Doge, Doge, Doge eat D.O.G.E.
Kamikaze from the Senate floor
A swan dive on the street
Mike couldn’t handle
This madness no more
He faced a MAGA defeat
[Guitar Solo]
Doge, Doge, Doge eat D.O.G.E.
Doge, Doge, Doge eat D.O.G.E.
Doge, Doge, Doge eat D.O.G.E.
(repeat chorus)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcbJwiYARdY
> Did we not discuss this topic at some point? I used to collect charts like this. Like when real wages flattened.
Link to this collection of charts has been posted several times by NC commenters — unsure if it was ever picked up by NC principals and/or staff:
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
1971 – Nixon took the US off the gold standard. Results since then should be totally unsurprising.
In 1971 Lewis Powell wrote the Powell Memo that became the blueprint for the rise of the American conservative movement and the neoliberal disposition hellscape that we find ourselves in.
I didn’t see your post. See my post below.
I lean toward the same interpretation as you.
If this is in reference to “Why is 1971 such an inflection point in so many data sets?”
I don’t know about the ‘many data sets’, but apparently in 1970 NY State legalized abortion, and other states began to change their laws, then 1973 was the Roe v Wade decision.
Seems like a good reason for the age of new parents to rise, if many stopped having kids before they were ready.
I think the chart also suggests that it took longer for people to get “ready” , especially financially, for children.
And it looks it’s headed for never going to be “ready”. The line on that chart is reaching towards women’s menopause age.
Many data sets:
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
Paul McCartney filed legal suit for the dissolution of The Beatles on 31 December 1970. It’s all been downhill from there…
I got curious about other trivia. Wild and out of the box ….
https://maamodt.asp.radford.edu/Serial%20Killer%20Information%20Center/Serial%20Killer%20Statistics.pdf/
The tables in this report are based on information from the Radford University/FGCU
Serial Killer Database
And remember, the USA is just barely over 4% of the world’s population.
The drop off is not much of a consolation, because the mass murders grew.
I blame disco. That’s when it all changed.
US reached its peak of conventional oil production at the end of November 1970.
Energy is the economy.
Several items besides Powell’s memo coincide with this. Probably most important: 1971 was US peak oil (pre-fracking) and as domestic oil production declined, so did GDP.
The Arabs (OPEC) used the “oil weapon” in 1973, partly to protest the Yom Kippur war. This was the first time the US couldn’t produce its way out of an energy shortfall. Remember: part of the reason the Japanese attacked the US was because it stopped shipping them oil.
The price of oil in 1971: $1.75/bbl. That price quadrupled overnight, and peaked at $42/bbl (about today’s price, inflation adjusted) in 1982. Reagan lucked out because Alaska’s “North Slope” and pipeline started producing in ’82, so the price retreated, for a while.
Re: Capital allocation. Is it possible that credit worthiness will evolve to become the leading contraindicator? “The AI signed off so there’s probably nothing in it…”
The mid 1970s is also when we see the inflection point for the rise of obesity in the USA. It’s long been associated by many with the release of the dietary guidelines that recommended Americans move away from saturated fats and cholesterol and toward carbohydrates, but I have wondered to what extent neoliberalism has played a role. Some obvious mechanisms for causal linkage would include longer commute times, longer hours worked, etc.
Here’s their full list of what changed in 1971:
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
Skoufis having a tantrum in Pennsylvania.
Some figures from Wikipedia on the race that Casey lost: “Notably, the margin of just 0.22% between the Republican and Democratic candidates is less than the votes received by either the Libertarian candidate, John Thomas (1.29% of the vote), the Green candidate, Leila Hazou (0.95% of the vote), or the Constitution candidate, Marty Selker (0.34% of the vote).’
But Skoufis wants to go after the Green Party. I wonder why.
Always the assumption that absent the party, voter would select the perceived closest match.
Re: Why is 1971 such an inflection point in so many data sets?….”Did we not discuss this topic at some point? I used to collect charts like this. Like when real wages flattened.”
Me: (slowly raising my hand)….Yes. wtfhappenedin1971.com.
Lots of charts.
It’s the interpretation of causes, intentions, and solutions where people diverge. For one example: whether one relates it to things such as the Powell memo or too much government.
To add: There are some that just say it was the Nixon shock. Monetary policy.
But that doesn’t mean there was no influence of from the Powell memo on that decision.
At the very bottom of the page, there is this;
The word money in the first line is a link to an article on Bitcoin. Link –> Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System
I found that interesting. So many things seemed to have changed back then. I think Nixon and the gold standard was the one with the biggest impact going forward. But that’s just me.
Yes. I’ve seen all that. Those parts are why I made sure to say that this info can be interpreted by people in many ways.
The people that collected the data made no mention of the Powell Memo. So they had their motives. It’s why I bring that up now when I refer to the site.
Thanks, this is interesting stuff Mikel.
Seconded. Crazy amount of charts of various things though time. Trends are your friend as they say on Wall Street. Those trends tell a story, depending on how interpreted.
My background is engineering, and I wonder how the Pereto theory applies here.
Good stuff
Also of note is Milton Friedman
‘s “maximize shareholder value” c.1971:
https://www.nytimes.com/1970/09/13/archives/a-friedman-doctrine-the-social-responsibility-of-business-is-to.html
Taibbi and Kirn are doing their Monday ATW live stream tonight, no paywall.
ATW Livestream Tonight at 8 PM ET/7 PM CT
https://www.racket.news/p/atw-livestream-tonight-at-8-pm-et7-595
Genocide apologists Taibbi and Kirn? No thanks.
Genocide apologists?? Could you elaborate?
It’s complicated.
Huh. Listening to this podcast I heard a lot about a lot of things, like wall st and economic class stuff, not much about other political class stuff.
“Foaming the runway”, babies. / ;)
Is that a joke? I recall some Reddit comments from last year accusing Mr. Taibbi of not covering Israel because he had said the issues were complicated.
Given Useful Idiots is unapologetically anti Zionist I’d appreciate an explanation for what you mean if you have one?
I am not totally up to date but throughout the year they managed to dodge the Gaza issue. Not really calling it what it is, more like “we are not sure so rather not talk about it”.
So Obama is not entirely wrong.
I myself have tried to defend Taibbi on reasons of caution. He has been put into the spotlight after Twitter Files, and the IRS visiting him and what not. So – may be – he chooses to keep out of additional trouble?
But perhaps that’s just a lame excuse from me.
He is a close colleague of Hedges´s, so yeah, I too wonder, how do they talk about this in private: “Listen Chris, I am not entirely sure if you are correct on Gaza” – ?
It’s a bit like Taibbi projecting his 1990s experience working for Moscow Times onto RU today. Neither has the Moscow Times ever been a genuine Russian paper, nor has that time to do anything with RU today. As if nothing changed in 30 years?
So Taibbi too has some faulty views he should work on 2025.
Yes, https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ lots of charts.
Awesome, thanks.
Flower note. A decade ago my Gardenia was only a spring bloomer but now it blossoms almost randomly except mid winter.
Now for something completely different: a raised bed gardener queried readers for suggestions for raised bed soil. I kept thinking about horticultural charcoal, different from standard barbeque BBQ charcoal brickets that are so often treated with chemicals and have very little actual wood in them. Maybe broken up lump charcoal, pure wood charcoals, would work as well as horiticultural charcoal. Just an idea.
There’s this about the Amazonian dark earth, the Terra Petra, an amazingly fertile, man made enhanced soil.
A new hypothesis for the origin of Amazonian Dark Earths
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20184-2
typo: Terra Preta, dark earth soil
One option for a raised bed garden is to use biochar made from forest slash piles. https://www.usu.edu/ubrg/
Thanks!
If I had a little red button that would eliminate AI forever, I would push it without hesitation. Same for crypto.
Best…H
Seconded. It’s infested my work life.
Some good new maybe.
https://weapons.substack.com/p/a-special-russian-flight-to-washington?utm_campaign=reaction&utm_medium=email&utm_source=substack&utm_content=post
Bringing personally, by hand, to Washington Russia’s terms for the surrender of the Ukraine is my bet.
Similarly to how Biden treated us, the American electorate, after the 2020 election, the Russian envoy probably told Biden that he still owes Russia 300 billion dollars.
“…On his War Room podcast on Friday, Bannon referred to tech leaders like Musk as ‘on the spectrum’ and incapable of taking criticism. ‘The nerds don’t take criticism,’ he said. ‘They’re kind of, you know, they’re a little bit all on the spectrum, right? They don’t know– they’re not deep in social skills.’”
The question I have: How actively are they selecting for those traits?
Very, I would opine.
Their necessity was explained by Jeffrey Keith Skilling (born November 25, 1953):
Unfortunately I cannot immediately ,convenielently back up that paraphrase, I can only remember it.
I am confident the sentiment persists.
For one example, I’m very interested in hearing about the experience of anyone who applied for a job with DOGE.
You would have to have the ability to:
1 > Ignore historical inconvenience
2 >1 have a strange understanding of value
3> Neglet any understanding of value
Can you imagine an open debate between Musk and Bannon? Bannon might be right in that Musk does not handle criticism well which is why he downgrades their X accounts when they disagree with him.
On the narcissism spectrum. Autistic people do not think that the world revolves around them.
https://www.axios.com/2022/04/15/elon-musk-aspergers-syndrome/
“Elon Musk opens up on how Asperger’s has impacted his life”
Just grabbed one of a number articles about it.
He could additionally be on some kind of narcissism spectrum.
Why would I grab any of those articles? Should I feel sorry for him, because he says that he is suffering? I am also on the spectrum (the non-narcissistic one), and am not a psychopath nor sociopath, and can take criticism (in spite of being nerdy, and having bad social skills). Saying that Musk is an asshole because he is ‘on the spectrum’ is an insult for people ‘on the spectrum’, and assholes.
Looking at the Class Warfare link reminded me of this:
After the strikes, it’s still rough.
https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/movies/story/2024-12-30/hollywood-jobs-outlook-crew-members-survive-until-25/
“…The emotional toll has rippled across the industry. Suicide among below-the-line workers is difficult to quantify, and many believe it’s under-reported. “I know people who killed themselves,” Fink says. “They didn’t see hope. They didn’t see a use for what they do anymore. You could ask around, and almost everyone knows someone.”
“One thing you never hear about, even with the suicides, is the impact it has on the people closest to them,” says Mariscal. “And [the despair] goes deeper. Someone gets hurt and they develop a drinking problem and start lashing out or hitting their spouse. It’s all very under-reported. You only hear about it if you’re inside the industry.”
These struggles are compounded by a growing divide between Hollywood’s creative and working classes, a rift widened by productions moving overseas in pursuit of tax incentives and lower labor costs…”
More:
“I believe in the power of unions, and I supported the strikes enthusiastically,” Fink says. “But on the other side of the strikes, we’re in a terrible place. The working class put their last good years on the line, and now productions are moving overseas. The people we fought for aren’t fighting to keep work here.”
Advancements in AI and virtual production are magnifying those anxieties. On projects like Disney’s 2019 CG-animated “The Lion King” and the studio’s upcoming “Snow White” remake, Mariscal witnessed how digital environments replaced traditional sets, eliminating the need for entire crew departments.
“It was drastically different from what you would normally see on a film set,” he says. “They still needed the feeling of a human moving the camera around. I remember being like, ‘I guess I made the cut.’ But there was no sound team, no makeup, no construction — just the bare bones of what it takes to make something.”
Hasn’t been helping Hollywood though. That “Snow White” remake is a disaster on wheels and when they release a trailer from it, it gets savaged-
‘The Snow White Trailer Will Traumatise You For Life’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2-Ojyp1nUo (6:39 min)
It may have been that all those film departments also acted as a sort of feedback to the film’s makers. Without them, those makers can do anything they want but without any feedback at all – until they show the result to test audiences.
Filmmakers and crew get “notes” to follow from above.
Or they don’t get the budget.
They also take assignments from studios.
And now, help us all, they also get “notes” and “guidelines’ from the tech platforms’ executives.
So, companies save money by disposing of all of their expensive, but experienced and trained, employees while creating garbage that almost nobody wants to buy or use.
Really, AI is just a cover to destroy the capabilities of a company by providing the façade or illusion of a still functioning company. This is done to create the opportunity for the short term, likely fatal, pillaging of the company. Just like Boeing is doing with the destruction of its development and manufacturing for short term profit and long term suicide.
And thanks for the link. Talk about the Uncanny Valley Effect, CGI, and DEI. I’m not going to see it.
The “live action” remakes of Lion King and Snow White are essentially CGI animated features. There are plenty of people in Hollywood creating those backgrounds and that character animation. Plus an army of vfx workers integrating the actual live action footage. So yes the live action crews on these films will be small but that doesn’t mean there are less people in Hollywood working on them. So these are poor examples.
I encourage anyone interested in the recent plane crash in Korea to watch the video by Juan brown and also review the comments. Many are from other 737 pilots, A &P mechanics with extensive knowledge of Boeing aircraft.
it’s the most accurate analysis of what we know so far.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BzmptA6s-1g
Re: 1971. I posted this the other day in response to a different issue, but didn’t see it among the flurry of charts. Surprising given the interest in deindustrialization.
Manufacturing employment since 1970
Also curious that 2008 was such a distinct change. Did we run out of jobs to outsource?
2008 – the “official” start of the GFC.
Effects still around.
I still remember Shrub saying that “we have to destroy capitalism, to save it” right around the time Bear Sterns went tits up.
Something died in 2008, for sure.
On charts, you’ll also see distinct changes around 2020.
It looks like articles on the 1971 site started around 2020.
Doing zoom outs on the USA economic data from post-WWII until the present day is CHILLING.
If you notice, market sites most often write about economic data comparing the present to 2008 and 2020 to try to show improvement.
>“Here Come The Anti-Woke Venture Capitalists”
About the only redeeming feature of the New Founding is them being explicitly anti-transhumanism:
“Pro-human: We believe people are unique and made in the image of God, as men andwomen, and meant to exercise dominion over this world; we reject trans-humanism and all other anti-human ideologies”
The God bit isn’t my jam, but at least they are not the faction that wants to become one with their MacBooks.
> 2. Trump’s AI czar helping H1Bers with fraudulent remittances
Are we missing a David Sacks article? The third leg of the PayPal Apartheid brotherhood and curious sociopath? Co-writer (with Thiel) of the OG anti-DEI rant “The Diversity Myth” back in 1995? The human manifestation of unearned self-satisfaction?
“Howard Lutnick and the Commandeering of the Department of Commerce” (Unlimited Hangout)
Long detailed article on Lutnick and his connections in banking, Epstein/Israel stuff, Thiel, a load of dystopian financial and surveillance investments, carbon credit chicanery, etc
‘James Skoufis
@JamesSkoufis
The Green Party spoiled another major race for us (PA SEN), just the latest on a very long list.
As @DNC
Chair, I’ll go on permanent offense, not just taking up the legal fight during ballot access. We’ll dismantle these Republican-enablers’ infrastructure. The gloves come off.’
Since when did the Democrats not stop trying to destroy the Green party or any other party through means fair and foul, especially lawfare. Just a two-bit party that can’t stand one bit of competition.
What I don’t understand is why they think that people intending to vote third party would automatically vote Democrat if the third party was taken off the ballot? Never worked for this voter.
It’s obvious that the dems are taking a page from their zionist handlers: they have a right to defend themselves from the green terrorists. Can’t wait for fetterman to come out, waving the old blue and white.
The Powell Memo happened in 1971.
That population inflection might have something to do with the availability of the birth control pill, but
I’m not sure.
OT: Mozart, The Magic Flute
Watching this oddity movie “Eat Pray Love”. Main character, American, which in Hollywood of course means from NYC, visits Rome. And then for some inexplicable reason they chose a passage from “Zauberflöte” as soundtrack, which is odd because Mozart liked his texts explicitly in German not Italian. So when in Rome you suddenly hear German singing.
Anyway, in later movies they often choose awful interpretations, probably because they are cheap, but this one was really good, Rachel Rosales with the Bulgarian National Orchestra, 2004.
I found an even better one on YT with her from 1987 in NY, it is pretty close to what she did in 2004 (which is amazing in today’s showbiz madness since she upheld that quality for 17 years.)
In case you don’t reject Magic Flute, which I could understand, enjoy, she is almost flawless and she kills it:
Queen of the Night Vengence aria – Rachel Rosales
3 min.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqyUvFSR6p8
We have no idea if an H5N1 Pandemic is on the horizon, sooner, later, or never. But we do know a few things
1) Biden’s handling of the risk of an H5N1 Pandemic has been an industry-protecting debacle, and increased the odds of H2H transmission relative to a competent response
2) Biden’s handling of the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic ensures widespread distrust and rejection of both vaccination and NPIs
3) Trump’s embrace of the GBD during his term signals that any response, should H2H H5N1 occur, will be tepid at best, and be based on an already dismantled Public Health infrastructure inherited from Biden
4) Biden’s response and Trump’s response normalized mass death and ongoing illness, leaving a population that is both more accustomed to death from disease, and itself increasingly compromised immunologically due to repeat SARS-CoV-2 infection
So, if the worst happens, buckle up, we’re in for a rough ride.
This, like so many issues, reminds me that back in November the public were faced with a choice between Pepsi and Coke on the ballot for President. There are some differences, but when it comes down to it both options were Carmel colored sweetened syrup with deeply similar flavorings that aren’t good for anyone.
Caravaggio
Here’s a discussion: https://www.collezionegalleriaborghese.it/en/opere/david-with-the-head-of-goliath