2:00PM Water Cooler 12/5/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, Edith G. Read Wildlife Sanctuary, Westchester, New York, United States. “Amazing repertoire of other species’ songs woven into this song. This mockingbird was imitating several species including cardinal, robin, killdeer, Carolina Wren, and Tufted Titmouse. It is unclear whether it was also imitating a Song Sparrow, because one was very nearby and its voice can also be heard on the audio.”

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In Case You Might Miss…

  1. UnitedHealthcare assassination: More details emerge.
  2. Boeing dropped a satellite, says new whistleblower.
  3. Nietzsche’s typewriter.

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)

“Secret Service director vows reorganization as members of Congress press him over major lapses” [Associated Press]. “During the hearing, Rowe was repeatedly asked by flabbergasted lawmakers how problems so obvious in hindsight were allowed to happen, including communications difficulties between the Secret Service and local law enforcement that help secure events [in Butler, PA] and the building overlooking the rally being left unprotected.” And: “Trump has not yet named his pick to lead the agency.”

Democrats en déshabillé

“Jeffries stays out of the way as Dems mutiny against senior panel leaders” [Politico]. The deck: “Democrats are increasingly anxious about the incoming Trump administration and are no longer bowing to seniority rules to pick their committee leaders.” About time. More: “Rep. Raul Grijalva of Arizona, 76, announced this week that he would step down from the top Democratic spot on the Natural Resources Committee. Rep. Jerry Nadler of New York, 77, dropped his bid to continue leading Democrats on Judiciary in the face of a tough challenge from 61-year-old Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland. And Rep. David Scott of Georgia, 79, is facing multiple challenges for the top Democratic spot on the Agriculture Committee. It’s akin to a mutiny, especially given Democrats’ typical deference to seniority in who leads panels. But party lawmakers are increasingly anxious about the incoming Trump administration and full GOP control of Congress. Many feel it’s crucial to have leaders who are proven fighters and can effectively push back on Republican priorities like harsh limits on legal immigration. It echoes the argument many used when they called on President Joe Biden to step off the ticket over the summer. At the center of it all is Jeffries, the minority leader, and his leadership team, who also skipped the seniority line in many ways when they rose to the top ranks two years ago. They have publicly stayed out of it, loath to stand in the way of lawmakers who, like them, chafed at the party’s strict adherence to seniority.” And: “”The caucus will guide these kinds of discussions,” said Rep. Pete Aguilar of California, the No. 3 House Democrat. “We’re confident that at this time it’s going to take a Democratic Caucus that’s firing on all cylinders to push back against extremism and to make sure we can carry forward the bipartisan principles that we’ve talked about.'” • Ick. Mush.

“Scoop: Pelosi backing “some” House Dem committee ousters” [Axios]. • Maybe, for example–

“Scoop: AOC expected to run for top Oversight Committee role” [Axios]. “Ocasio-Cortez said Tuesday she is ‘interested’ in the role and has had ‘a lot of outreach from colleagues’ about a run. She told reporters on Wednesday morning that she has ‘spoken with many members of our caucus, including several members of leadership’ about the race. Ocasio-Cortez also laid out her vision for the panel, saying she wants to use it as a ‘communicative platform for public education’ and a vehicle for ‘real legislative work and investigatory work.'” • And speaking of AOC:

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“Democrats are checked out after their drubbing — here’s how they can reengage” [The Hill]. “Democrats are tuning away from news networks and social media platforms in numbers that are impossible to ignore. MSNBC and CNN saw their ratings slashed in half as exhausted Democrats tuned out post-election. On Twitter (now X, after its acquisition by Elon Musk), lefty users have deserted the platform in droves in favor of competitor Bluesky.” At some point, the exodus of “lefty [sic] users” from X (611 million users) to Bluesky (20 million) will stop. When it does, we’ll have a good reading on how many Blue MAGA there really are. More: “Print outlets are faring even worse, with furious Democrats still canceling their Washington Post subscriptions nearly a month after owner Jeff Bezos spiked the paper’s endorsement of Kamala Harris. One in 10 Washington Post subscribers have quit the paper since October, blowing a sizable hole in the paper’s already threadbare earnings. That raises an existential question for media outlets and for Democrats: Where will all those disillusioned eyes go?” And: “Democrats were once masters of the populist message. If they want to rebuild after last month’s electoral disaster, they’ll need to reconnect with that part of their political psyche — fast. ” • They can’t and won’t. As Thomas Frank shows in Listen, Liberal!, liberal Democrats hate the working class. Since improved messaging, if it is to last, implies actually delivering on policy, they’ll fight improved messaging tooth and nail (as will their wealthy donors, as we saw in the Kamala campaign’s refusal to campaign on Lina Khan). Alternatively, of course, the Democrat leadership could believe there’s no problem at all; a few thousand votes here and there and 2028 is practically in the bag. And of course, the Democrat leadership has gradually eviscerated the primary process, so all the leadership will really need to do is go into a smoke-filled room, pick a slightly better candidate than Kamala, and give them more runway than a hundred days. How hard could that be?

“Democrats need to take the working class seriously and literally” [Salon]. “And then there was the following phrase (or some version of it) that I heard many times on the bus, the train and in my conversations with Uber and Lyft drivers. “Donald Trump may act crazy or be a jerk, but he is right about that!….” Donald Trump’s raw honesty and lack of a filter or self-censoring are central to his appeal. Many Americans may disagree with the specifics of what Donald Trump says about immigration, women, racial and ethnic minorities, or how he will rule when he is back in power. But as shown by polls and focus groups, many of them do like the fact that Trump, unlike Kamala Harris and the mainstream news media and other elites, is at least talking in a clear and direct way about the things that are causing them anxiety and upset in their daily lives….. To win back their own base voters — and more importantly to expand their support among independents, undecided voters and those who have dropped out of politics and the country’s civic life — Democrats need to do a much better job of listening to everyday people, meeting them where they are and taking their concerns and agency seriously. Whatever one may think about Donald Trump, his propagandists and other agents, at this moment, they and the MAGAverse are doing a much better job of listening to and shaping public opinion and the national narrative and mood than are the Democrats and the legacy news media.” • At first reading, this is another messaging take. But the listening part is not (and I don’t mean a “listening tour.” If there were such a thing as a 21st century precinct captain — online? — they should be doing the listening).

“I Watched the Democratic Collapse in Florida. I Fear It’s Happening Nationally” [The Bulwark]. “The truth is we got here because our brand sucks. We tend to put voters in different buckets—black, Hispanic, young, gay, etc.—and treat these groups like they are more progressive than they really are, and somehow unique from each other. At the same time, we’ve made decisions to stop talking to large chunks of the electorate. Some of these decisions can’t be fixed. For example, I wish we would have been more intentional about molding the Obama operation into something more permanent for the party to utilize. Coming out of 2008, rather than investing in partisan infrastructure, many in my party—in some cases led by the Obama White House—encouraged the development of “long-term progressive infrastructure,” with the idea that not-for-profit organizations could better address political needs, instead of state parties. Not only has this experiment failed at the core organizing level in states like Florida, but it has encouraged the idea that Democrats are beholden to progressive groups and values. We should have continued something akin to the old Howard Dean plan to invest in all fifty states.” Thanks, Obama! And the conclusion: “[B]asically, we must get back to listening to the median voter.” Listening, but also leading. The author has this good metaphor: “Has anyone had to buy refrigerator recently? After having previous had one for twelve years, I’m now on my third in seven—not because the actual refrigerator is breaking but because all the ‘smart’ technology on my fridge is. Last time I went in, I said, I just want a dumb fridge that works. Just the basics—works for appliances and for elections.” • Universal concrete material benefitsMR SUBLIMINAL Socialism is that “dumb fridge that works” (see FDR. And the CARES Act). Lead the voters there. Don’t commission another boatload of polling in quest of the mythical “median voter,” recognizable only in retropect by campaign professionals who, if you were sharing a post-prandial libation, would be the first to admit that nobody knows anything.

“Will Democrats “Get in Touch” with Working-Class America?” [John Halpin, The Liberal Patriot]. By Betteridge’s Law… “[I]n a comprehensive post-election survey of 4800 working-class voters conducted by PPI and YouGov (including oversamples in the battleground states of AZ, GA, MI, WI, and PA), Republicans outperformed Democrats across every indicator of party leadership and values.” Handy chart:

Wowsers.

“The Left-Flank Albatross” [Michael Baharaeen, The Liberal Patriot]. “Of course, liberals deserve representation too, and it’s completely fair to be concerned about issues like abortion, climate change, and minority rights. But winning in politics requires meeting voters where they are and catering to the issues they care most about. Harris and her team may protest that they tried to make the economy a central focus of her campaign, downplay hot-button topics, and employ tough rhetoric about the southern border, but none of it resonated with the voters they needed most. As the party moves forward, it must grapple with this reality and learn from it if they are to repair their image and chart a new path.” • It’s weird for an organization that calls itself “Third Way” (cited approvingly in the piece) to keep pushing a binary (left-right) paradigm (as opposed to, say, right-liberal-left tripolar model). I suppose, for them, the “third way” is rightwards (they would say they’re chasing the median voter, but it’s the chasing, and not leading, that’s the problem).

Realignment and Legitimacy

“The Fight Has Only Just Begun” [The Progressive]. “Once upon a time, a majority of U.S. voters rejected a capable, competent, and intelligent daughter of Black and Indian immigrants in favor of a diminished, ignorant, racist son of a multimillionaire, proving that the United States remained a great country for old, white men.” • This is what passes for “left” analysis at The Progressive.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Transmission: Covid

“Are flu and COVID high now? Here’s how the season has started” [Alexander Tin, CBS]. Tin is a good guy, but Covid is not seasonal. That said: “COVID-19 emergency room visits are ‘low’ or ‘minimal’ in nearly all states, after this year’s late summer wave of the virus. Levels of the virus in wastewater are “minimal” in all regions, compared to “high” levels around this time last year. ‘Does that mean that there was enough immunity built up in that summer wave that we’re going to not see a winter wave? Does it mean the winter wave is going to come, but be a little bit later and maybe a little smaller,’ said [University of North Carolina epidemiology professor Justin Lessler]. Both [Shaun Truelove, associate scientist at Johns Hopkins University’s public health school] and Lessler said one major ‘data gap’ making comparisons to previous seasons challenging has been the lapse in nationwide COVID-19 hospitalization data during the summer surge. A pandemic-era emergency requirement for health care providers to report COVID-19 hospitalizations lapsed earlier this year, and only recently resumed under a new rule issued by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Other factors muddying the figures include changes to how people test and seek care for COVID-19 infections. Another big unknown is the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Most circulating variants right now are a medley of closely related variants like XEC and KP.3.1.1. ‘We don’t know, like we do for flu, what the average pace of COVID’s evolution away from our immune system will be, when it settles down,’ Lessler said. Early data released last month by researchers at The Ohio State University found XEC looked to be more infectious compared with the parent variant it shares upstream with KP.3.1.1, but not significantly more than its siblings. ‘I actually have thought it had settled down a bit, after this year. We’ll see what I think after the season’s done. But right now, I’m a little less sure,’ he said.” • Oh good. Seems like the best indicator would be reports of coughing on the Mommy blogs, at this point…

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC November 25 Last week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC November 23 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 23

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data December 4: National [6] CDC November 28:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens December 2: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 23:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC November 11: Variants[10] CDC November 4:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 2: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 2:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Good news!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* still popular. XEC has entered the chat. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) Down.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveled out.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Actually improved; it’s now one of the few charts to show the entire course of the pandemic to the present day.

[7] (Walgreens) Down.

[8] (Cleveland) Down.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “US initial jobless claims rose to 224,000 for the week ending November 30, from 213,000 in the previous week, above market expectations of 215,000 and marking the highest reading in six weeks. Despite this rise, the results still support the view that the US labor market remains at historically strong levels despite the aggressive tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve in the last quarters, adding leeway for the central bank to slow the pace of monetary loosening should inflation remain stubbornly high.”

Employment Situation: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” [Trading Economics]. “US employers announced 57,727 job cuts in November 2024, slightly higher than 55,597 in October and 45,510 a year earlier. The Automotive sector announced the most job cuts (11,506, the highest monthly total since April).”

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Manufacturing: “Boeing whistleblower sounds alarm over safety at satellite factory: “They’re not gonna listen to me until somebody dies” [CBS]. “Now, Garriott, 53, says, it’s the lives of hundreds of technicians at the Boeing facility where he has worked for nearly three decades that need protecting from company management. ‘They’ve taken the focus off quality, the focus off the people on the floor, and they’ve put it completely on profit and going fast,’ Garriott said in an exclusive interview with CBS News senior transportation correspondent Kris Van Cleave. ‘I’m afraid with Boeing in the hands that it’s in now down here, they’re not gonna listen to me until somebody dies.’ He said efforts by Boeing executives to boost production at the company’s Los Angeles-area military and commercial satellite plant have led to a ‘toxic culture’ that has put workers there in danger. Garriott recalled how a four-ton satellite estimated to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars crashed to the factory floor after it wasn’t properly secured — an incident so catastrophic he compared it to ‘a plane falling out of the sky.’ ‘One person was underneath that satellite and they barely got out,’ said Garriott, who also represents 600 hourly workers as the head of the local carpenters union. ‘It’s the worst thing that can possibly happen on a site.'” • Boeing dropped a satellite????

Manufacturing: “Boeing Plea Deal Over Fatal 737 Max Crashes Rejected by Judge” [Bloomberg]. “Boeing Co.’s plea deal with US prosecutors over two 737 Max jet crashes was rejected by a federal judge, who said plans for choosing an independent monitor minimized the court’s role and required the parties to consider the race of the person appointed. US District Judge Reed O’Connor on Thursday sided with family members of people killed during the crashes, who urged him to reject the agreement on the grounds that it failed to adequately hold Boeing accountable for the 346 fatalities.” • Oopsie.

Manufacturing: “Boeing Defense Fighter Jet Unit Head Retires Amid Leadership Shake-Up” [Simple Flying]. “The head of Boeing Defense’s fighter jet division will step down after two years in the role. Steve Nordlund will be replaced by Dan Gillian, vice president and general manager of Mobility, Surveillance & Bombers, amid a challenging time for the company…. [Boeing Defense Systems] continues to lose money, posting losses of $2.3 billion in the third quarter. Much of this was due to fixed-cost contracts, including the KC-46A Tanker and T-7 Red Hawk programs.” • I bet there aren’t a whole lot of companies that lose money on defense work.

Manufacturing: “Boeing Isn’t the Only Plane Maker With Problems. Airbus Just Laid Off 2,000 Workers” [Barron’s]. “Wednesday, Airbus announced it was laying off 2,043 workers in its Defense and Space business. The layoffs amount to about 5% of that business and should be completed by mid-2026. The reductions ‘aim to reduce the company’s fixed cost base, with almost all of the positions affected being so-called overhead positions,’ said Airbus in an emailed statement.” And: “Profits in Airbus’ defense segment have struggled, too, and the company is expected to post a loss for the unit in 2024. Operating profit margins in 2023 came in at 2%, down from 6% in 2020. Airbus’ defense sales in 2024 should amount to about $13 billion; Boeing’s defense business will approach $25 billion. What hasn’t been a problem for either company is commercial aerospace demand. Both companies have backlogs that stretch out years. Building the planes has been tougher.”

The Bezzle:

Probably wouldn’t even buy a bathroom in one of Jeff’s mansions, but every little bit helps!

Tech: Yo, Elon:

Tech: “Federal Court Says Dismantling A Phone To Install Firmware Isn’t A ‘Search,’ Even If Was Done To Facilitate A Search” [TechDirt]. “[T]he narrative says the iPhone was ‘inoperable’ (to use HSI’s own words). But the DHS sent it out to a ‘partner forensic laboratory’ (I’m going to assume this was the FBI), which was able to finally obtain access to the phone by: …replacing its circuit board and re-flashing the device’s firmware. Now, that looks like the sort of thing not covered or considered by previous case law or the original warrant request. This is something else. This is another government party extensively modifying seized property to make it more receptive to phone-cracking efforts. One would think a court would need to be apprised of this opportunity before it became a reality, if for no other reason than the original warrant only authorized a search, not the literal cracking of a cell phone (or its casing, at least) to replace a circuit board and install new firmware. I think the defendant raises a good point. But I also think, given the lack of precedent, the court is not completely wrong to rule that reviving a device so it can be searched isn’t actually a search under the Fourth Amendment. To put it in other physical terms, no court would believe pulling a car out of the water after dredging a lake would be a search, even if the recovered vehicle was searched pursuant to a search warrant.” • Hmm.

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 58 Greed (previous close: 57 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 63 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Dec 5 at 1:18:31 PM ET.

Gallery

Ka-ching:

Healthcare

More on the UnitedHealth shooting:

The gun:

More on the gun:

The alleged shooter:

The bike:

Hot take (1):

Hot take (2):

About those bullet casings:

Maybe someday we’ll find the real killer:

Class Warfare

“UnitedHealthcare CEO’s killing lays bare rising security risks facing health care leaders” [Stat News]. “The killing of Brian Thompson, the CEO of the insurance division of UnitedHealth Group, provided a window into the vitriol that prominent health care leaders have been facing…. A longtime UnitedHealth executive who left the company about 10 years ago said the company’s executives commonly received threats from people with grievances about UnitedHealth’s coverage policies. The executive, who asked to remain anonymous to discuss a sensitive topic, said unauthorized people would come to the company’s sprawling headquarters in the Minneapolis suburb of Minnetonka and try to enter the buildings where executives’ offices are located. Years ago, employees entered the buildings using their badges, but the company added security checkpoints on the ground floor when the threats became more common.” • So the problem’s been festering a long time… What a surprise! And the headline: Thompson was not a “healthcare leader”; he was an insurance executive, some would say the very opposite. Further, the airport bookstore business section-style “leader” is, as ever, vacuous and noxious. Use the title, “CEO,” or the generic, “executives.” I read plenty of accounts in the online Covid community who are a thousand times the “leader” Thompson putatively was, and probably wouldn’t even use that word to describe themselves. Sheesh.

“Wealthy Americans Are Now Paying for Their Own Personal Fire Hydrants” [Wall Street Journal]. “The latest sought-after home amenity? Personal fire hydrants. The logic is that when there’s a major disaster there may not be enough fire engines to protect every house in an area. If homeowners have their own hydrant ready to go—along with hoses, nozzles and adapters—and are trained to use it all, that could help reduce the number of homes destroyed. Real-estate agents say mentioning a personal fire hydrant in the marketing materials now helps sell homes….. Personal hydrants are part of a wider trend of homeowners taking wildfire prevention into their own hands. They’re putting in elaborate sprinkler systems, eliminating wood on the exteriors, clearing combustible landscaping and fireproofing roofs.”

News of the Wired

“The Surprising New History of Horse Domestication” [Scientific American]. “Scholars have long sought to understand how the unique partnership between humans and horses got its start. Until recently, the conventional wisdom was that horses were gradually domesticated by the Yamnaya people beginning more than 5,000 years ago in the grassy plains of western Asia and that this development allowed these people to populate Eurasia, carrying their early Indo-European language and cultural traditions with them.” But: “New genomic analyses led by Pablo Librado of the Institute of Evolutionary Biology in Barcelona and Orlando indicate that the ancestors of modern domestic horses originated in the Black Sea steppes around 2200 B.C.E., nearly 2,000 years later than previously thought. Although we do not yet know exactly the details of their initial domestication, it is clear based on the timing that these horses belonged to post-Yamnaya culture. Patterns in the ancient genomes suggest that in the early centuries of domestication, the horse cultures of the western steppe were selectively breeding these animals for traits such as strength and docility.” • Fascinationg detail on archeological evidence. Well worth a read.

“How Typing Transformed Nietzsche’s Consciousness” [MIT Press]. “Amid all this hubbub of opinion and research into the man and his ideas, however, hardly anyone has commented on, or sought to explain, another aspect of Nietzsche: his productivity, and how it changed during his career because of his adoption of a new writing technology. Consider this: Nietzsche wrote four books between 1870 and 1881, or almost one every three years, which is pretty good. After 1881, however, he managed to deliver 10 manuscripts to his publisher in the seven years to 1888, whereupon he became too ill to write any longer. That was a book and a half per year, which is really good. By 1881 Nietzsche had become almost blind, an infirmity that would surely have hampered his longhand writing. How did he manage to improve his work rate? What he did was something seemingly out of character, given his views on modernity and science: He bought a typewriter. To be precise, he purchased a top-of-the-line portable Malling-Hansen writing ball, which was sent specially to him from its inventor in Copenhagen.” And: “The sudden mechanical punctuated strike of the typewriter contrasted starkly with the ruminative flow of the pen; the typewriter encouraged a binary decision, to depress the key or not; whereas the pen with its store of liquid ink, held by surface tension in the nib, or in a small reservoir in the fountain pen, was a more latent and nonmachinic technology….. The German philosopher of technology Friedrich Kittler has claimed that the analog typewriter in general was useful for certain forms of thought: the brief, the succinct, the forms that thrive on concision and quickness…. As Kittler saw it, a celebrated Nietzschean style comprising sustained reflection, long sentences, and complex reasoning had changed ‘from arguments to aphorisms, from thoughts to puns, from rhetoric to telegram style.’ Nietzsche was an early adopter of the technology. He took it to the heady realms of Continental philosophy and — if we consider his immense influence — began to change it through a creative mind that was reshaped by the keys that had replaced the pen.” • Also well worth a read. (In my own experience, the computer enabled me to finish the work, like the typewriter (and the pen before that).

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From AM:

AM writes: “The last of the fall colors in Roger Williams Park, near the tennis courts. Hope we get some rain soon!!”

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

77 comments

  1. Wukchumni

    “The Fight Has Only Just Begun” [The Progressive]. “Once upon a time, a majority of U.S. voters rejected a capable, competent, and intelligent daughter of Black and Indian immigrants in favor of a diminished, ignorant, racist son of a multimillionaire, proving that the United States remained a great country for old, white men.”
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    I for one will greatly miss Kamala as the big fade makes her go away, she was essentially self-satirizing… only she didn’t know it~

    Reply
    1. Mark Gisleson

      Nixon made a comeback but Harris is no Nixon. I thought Nixon was the worst President ever but with the possible exception of Gerald “East Timor” Ford, every subsequent POTUS was worse.

      Reply
    2. lyman alpha blob

      I have to say I read the teaser and thought they must be talking about some past historical figure, maybe someone from the Seminole people – only when I clicked the link to read further did I realize that they were talking about Harris. Those descriptive adjectives really threw me off.

      Reply
    3. The Rev Kev

      The Democrats did nothing wrong and chose the perfect candidate. It’s all the fault of the voters for not getting with the program. Don’t they know their place? Would you believe that the majority of those voters aren’t even credentialed?

      Reply
      1. griffen

        Watching a bit of news on CNBC this morning, which is reflecting on the wonderful Biden administration and a great economic stretch. Job markets, the stock indexes, yes that’s a few key indicators that for many in the US, daily life after the Covid 19 impaired period somehow did return to a more normal and routine as it were. Voters had it great under Joe and Kamala, why did the voters not understand this ( sarc ).

        To the bad, housing and rent is only more expensive. Those able to sell and relocate can either drop a large down payment or are able to absorb the increased mortgage rates. Most if not many daily items for an average American family are not only more expensive but any price declines are seemingly short lived and intermittent in reality.

        I have a lurking fear the Trump administration is going to miss the target and daily consumer goods and services are not going back in time to lower inflation days. Maybe there is some impact in oil and energy….to me that’s a pivotal input.

        Added thought, that article from the Progressive did have some wowsers in it. Yowza.

        Reply
  2. NotTimothyGeithner

    Re: The Stoller framing.

    The lack of surprise by the elites is a byproduct of the white washing of history.

    “These violent delights have violent ends.”

    The “aww shucks Iowa corn bloated” routine is just a modern Lord and Lady nonsense.

    Reply
  3. Cressida

    Healthcare

    More on the UnitedHealth shooting:

    Coming later, or forgot to add it?

    One thing’s for sure, The Invisible Hand which has given so many the middle finger, just pulled the trigger.

    Reply
    1. hk

      Almost wishing that Hunter did it, since he can’t be prosecuted for it and, for once, a Biden would have done something right. (Well, there’s Luna Khan, too, I guess.)

      Reply
      1. chris

        Your mistyping of Luna now has me imagining Lina Khan as a Ravenclaw in the Ministry of Magic being put on loan to the US Govt. to handle the antitrust issue.

        “I’m sorry Senator, but we simply can’t allow them control that large of a marketshare. The snorkacks won’t survive.”

        “Yes, Senator, snorkacks. They’re quite essential you see. And do your best to stay healthy. There’s a herd of Thestrals following you around lately.”

        Reply
    2. The Rev Kev

      I notice that the guy did not seem to panic when his gun had a mishap but just got on with clearing it. Military training perhaps? I wonder if he was the same guy that planted that pipe bomb during the January 6th riots. They never found him either.

      Reply
      1. Screwball

        Jan 6th…

        I made a mistake the other day when some PMC types were going off on that day and the lynching. I asked them politely if they knew the gallows were quite a distance from the capital. Remembering our host Lambert’s most excellent breakdown of that. Then explained how it seems against all logic that they could have done such a thing.

        Nope, I am so wrong, and was admonished appropriately. It seems to me, these people just make their own reality, and no amount of facts are going to change it. And we are the dumb ones.

        Reply
        1. chris

          You get the same results when you discuss Ukraine, or Gaza, or economic issues in the US. There’s a crowd that refuses to even imagine another point of view.

          Reply
          1. Tilen

            Regimes of truth and egomania: it’s hard to see one’s own privilege and role in reproducing modern slavery, especially when everyone and everything around you points at a convenient scapegoat: the stupid poor people.

            Ironic that much of liberal media discourse focuses on the critique of Othering (“it’s the migrants fault”) and then reproduces the same shit narratives (“it’s the poor people’s fault”)…

            Reply
      2. ChrisFromGA

        It’s been 36 hours and no capture. The longer he eludes the coppers, the better the odds he gets away with it. Or at least goes into Unabomber/Eric Rudolph territory.

        I wonder if the FBI has been so caught up in looking for Rooshians hiding in the woods and Jan 6 cosplayers that they forgot how to catch an actual bad guy?

        Reply
  4. Wukchumni

    (In my own experience, the computer enabled me to finish the work, like the typewriter (and the pen before that).
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Yes, when writing something by pen, I get occasional writer’s block or what if I want to change the wording around in ink, ye gads no.

    Loved my Selectric II and its distinctive purr when you turned it on, but again you couldn’t easily change things around as you can with this here QWERTY on my laptop.

    Reply
    1. Carolinian

      Famous film critic Pauline Kael couldn’t type or drive. She kept her daughter around to type up those cutting reviews for the New Yorker.

      She was sometimes accused of having a gushy “impressionsistic” style. Blame it on the ball point?

      Reply
  5. Carolinian

    “the analog typewriter in general was useful for certain forms of thought: the brief, the succinct, the forms that thrive on concision and quickness”

    So Henry James didn’t own one then.

    I always found manual typewriters to be a lot of work. Perhaps Nietzsche was saving his fingers.

    Meanwhile back here in cyberworld I seem to go through keyboards far more often than I like.

    Reply
    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > So Henry James didn’t own one then.

      The later Henry James dictated to a stenographer. I don’t know what he did before that. And hence, indeed, the endless circuitousness, the never coming to what would, to some, have seemed to be the, or, at least, a point?

      Reply
      1. ambrit

        I do apprehend the wending ways of the circumlocutious path your eminently enlightening erudition treads on its way to informing and, curiously, subtly encouraging the seeker after esoteric knowledge.
        Remain without fear; practice the vigilance of Argus with the pugnacity of Cerebrus.

        Reply
      2. alfred venison

        Her name was Theodora Bosanquet. She replaced a dour Scot who was an unsatisfactory blunt instrument, and expensive. Her book, “Henry James at Work”, was published in 1924 and is available at Libgen. She auditioned on his Remington though she was more familiar with other machines. Marshall McLuhan, in “Understanding Media”, relates that as James lay dying he asked her to operate the typewriter in an adjacent room so he could hear its sound once more before he passed away. Bosanquet’s editor says the onset of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome in ’97 forced James to cease handwriting.

        Reply
    2. hk

      Not really about physical keyboards, but about typesetting software for math and such.

      Game theorists using LaTEX (standard “math” typesetting software) need a lot of practice to draw nice diagrams. I could never get hang of it (I never did become a “real game throrist,” but I played one often enough, and I wondered about my old profs who were very prolific in churning out papers with wondrous diagrams. So, I asked one of them some years later. His response: I draw the diagrams on paper and we have staff that can take care of them.

      A bunch of lights lit up in my head at that moment.

      Reply
    3. griffen

      I recently began a new remote position, performing data review and reconciliation as or after an integral data system upgrade….modern tech ( keyboard, PC displays ) does seem to have a relatively brief or useful life. The keyboard in use seems rather reluctant on certain key strokes. I’ll add it’s a modern inconvenience, of course just like your newer vehicle’s tire gauge going bonkers in a cold snap.

      My late Mom owned a manual that was indeed loud when it worked, an Underwood model I think. It’s probably collecting rust somewhere.

      Reply
  6. JBird4049

    >>Meanwhile back here in cyberworld I seem to go through keyboards far more often than I like.

    Like everything else, the quality of the keyboards has gone down. After my fourth apple keyboard in as many years, I bought a mechanical keyboard, which is still good after three years.

    Reply
    1. i just don't like the gravy

      I use a Model M from the late 80s that I converted to USB via the myriad tutorials online

      I will be dying of thirst in the water wars and this thing will still work. Shame that we can’t make anything that lasts like this anymore.

      Reply
          1. ambrit

            I wonder if our Civilization is suffering the effects of planned obsolescence.
            Question: What could be the “benefits” of financialization for Terran human History?

            Reply
  7. t

    I would have thought the stats we do have on wrongful arrests, cops killing people who called 911, and cops shooting dogs would “lay bare the security risks” for people who are not leadership. Guess not.

    Reply
  8. sardonia

    “That raises an existential question for media outlets and for Democrats: Where will all those disillusioned eyes go?”

    Sing it, Peter, Paul, and Mary…

    Where have all…the blue eyes gone?
    Long time passing.
    Where have all…the blue eyes gone?
    To be gaslit.
    Where have all…the blue eyes gone?
    Gone to Blue Sky, every one.
    When will they ever learn?
    When will they…. ah screw it – I can’t satarize these morons better than they satarize themselves.

    Reply
  9. cfraenkel

    Boing dropped a satellite????
    Was the renaming intentional? It does have a ring to it : )

    This has happened before. Back in the 80’s a DMSP got dropped, I think it might have been at the Cape for pre-launch checkout, or I can’t imagine how I would have heard about it. No trace of it online (of course), but it wasn’t Boeing (actually, Hughes, back then). The current prime contractor is Lockheed and/or Northrup, depending on the source, but this source says it was built by GE: https://space.jpl.nasa.gov/msl/QuickLooks/dmsp5d2QL.html

    Reply
  10. Grumpy Engineer

    We should have continued something akin to the old Howard Dean plan to invest in all fifty states“.

    Aye. I was never particularly a Howard Dean fan, but I’ve always respected the work he did on the “50-state strategy”. The Democrats’ recent strategy of writing off entire states (and entire chunks of the US population) has resulted in a “big tent” that gets smaller every year.

    Reply
      1. Jason Boxman

        It is a big tent in that it admits anyone with the right size check book, ideological convictions, unimportant.

        Reply
  11. chuk jones

    “Wealthy Americans Are Now Paying for Their Own Personal Fire Hydrants”
    Neo-liberalism on the march! We don’ need no stinking fire departments, just do it yourself. Elon’s probably already on it.

    Reply
    1. chris

      Private and for profit fire companies were largely extinct in the US by 1875. But I guess along with anarchist style assassinations we’ll see that element of the gilded age return too.

      Reply
  12. Bazarov

    I write first drafts by hand. There’s a trance-like feel to it–bordering on the spiritual–that no other medium can quite match.

    I then type up what I’ve written, editing and revising as I do so.

    The process is rather efficient, in that you get two drafts done in rapid succession. It results in a higher quality second draft because you’re “rewriting” via the keyboard, which by way of having such a different feel than the pen, allows you to see possibilities (and errors!) you wouldn’t otherwise see if merely editing words already on the screen.

    Reply
  13. chris

    Re: Politico article on Dem Leadership… 76, 77, and 79 years of age? No wonder the gaggle of committee chairs didn’t think Biden was too old to run for office again. I guess Feinstein is the model here. Dems only wants to leave office in a wheelchair, drooling on themselves. I Glitch McConnell isn’t far behind, but it seems as if there’s less of a skew towards the aged in the Republican party leadership.

    I don’t know if term limits are the answer here, but I wouldn’t mind telling people who are 75 and older that they can’t be in office anymore.

    Reply
  14. Pat

    The Lily in the City tweet has an interesting view of the future. I am assuming they are writing this as something happening after 2026. This because AOC is the only current office holder listed (Governor = Hochul, 10 = Goldman, 22 = Manning).

    All is speculation…

    Reply
      1. ambrit

        Maybe a biopic about AOCs incredibly hard life. A real Harriet Alger story. With Rachel Zegler playing our scrappy heroine.
        A “moderne” video version of the obligatory “My Life” pre-Presidential run tome. AOC is just old enough to run for POTUS as of last October.

        Reply
    1. upstater

      I don’t know where those maps came from, but they are wrong. Delgado ain’t the governor, Hochul is. It certainly doesn’t represent NY-22 which is basically Syracuse and Utica and points between. The redistricting was done in 2023 and in effect for 2024. Tenny is in NY-24, which wraps around NY-22. NY-22 flipped D and elected Mannion. Mannion, of course, outperformed Harris by a wide margin.

      Reply
      1. Pat

        Sorry didn’t realize that autocorrect made Manning out of Mannion. Since you were more clear on current positions in the state, I will add more current context for the where did they get that name calculation. Delgado is Lt. Governor and Brad Holman-Sigal is state Senator of the former 27th now 47th district which is part NY-10.

        Reply
  15. XXYY

    Boeing Plea Deal Over Fatal 737 Max Crashes Rejected by Judge” [Bloomberg]

    This is wild:

    [The deal was] rejected by a federal judge, who said plans for choosing an independent monitor minimized the court’s role and required the parties to consider the race of the person appointed.

    Is this a great country, or what?

    Reply
  16. XXYY

    Lambert: “In my own experience, the computer enabled me to finish the work, like the typewriter (and the pen before that).”

    I for one would be very interested to hear more details on this.

    Reply
  17. Jason Boxman

    Print outlets are faring even worse, with furious Democrats still canceling their Washington Post subscriptions nearly a month after owner Jeff Bezos spiked the paper’s endorsement of Kamala Harris. One in 10 Washington Post subscribers have quit the paper since October, blowing a sizable hole in the paper’s already threadbare earnings.

    That’s a hilarious economic boycott. So the PMC class can stand together economically for a cause they believe in. But they certainly won’t do that as a class where it might help striking workers, say, quitting Amazon Prime, or not going to Starbucks.

    Reply
  18. The Rev Kev

    “Secret Service director touts changes as Congress presses him on Trump assassination attempt”

    ‘The acting director of the Secret Service said Thursday that the agency is “reorganizing and reimagining” its culture and how it operates following an assassination attempt against Donald Trump on the campaign trail.’

    And what would have been the story if that assasin had succeeded in killing Trump?

    ‘The acting director of the Secret Service said Thursday that the agency is “reorganizing and reimagining” its culture and how it operates following the assassination of Donald Trump on the campaign trail.’

    Reply
    1. Lefty Godot

      Am I just missing stories, or have the investigations into the two would-be Trump assassins been completely disappeared down the memory hole? It seems highly unusual that this has become such a non-topic. Sara Jane Moore got more attention for her misfire.

      Reply
  19. The Rev Kev

    ‘AG Brian Schwalb
    @DCAttorneyGen
    NEW: Amazon charges 48,000 DC residents in Wards 7 & 8 for full Prime membership while excluding them from Prime delivery benefits. Amazon failed to inform customers they were excluded. We are suing Amazon for deceiving DC residents into paying the same price for worse service.’

    If this is the same story that I read about yesterday, those two areas excluded happen to be predominately black.

    Reply
    1. scott s.

      Well the map indicates Anacostia, so yes, except the extreme southern which is JB Anacostia-Bolling, home to DIA and Marine-1. Though you can say pretty much the same about much of the district, at least NE and really east of Rock Creek.

      Reply
  20. Jason Boxman

    From I Watched the Democratic Collapse in Florida. I Fear It’s Happening Nationally.

    So I don’t think that dude understands why he lost Florida, either.

    At Unite the Country, we saw some of these issues among Hispanics even among the most loyal Democrats in primary states. Polling in both Illinois and Florida showed Democratic Hispanic primary voters starting to react negatively to the socialism talk that came out of our 2020 presidential primaries—so much so that we did pro-Biden mail calling out the “revolution” posture coming from some of the presidential candidates in both states to make it clear he was focused on bread-and-butter issues.

    Still, despite plenty of people screaming from the rafters, the Biden campaign largely ignored the growing problems associated with the rhetoric of the extreme left. In doing so, it let the narrative settle in. Trump’s gains among Hispanics in Florida were significant: from +27 Clinton to +7 Biden among Hispanics. Because the shift among that electorate was just three points nationally, national Democrats largely wrote it off as an outlier—Florida being Florida, and all.

    But eventually, we saw that Florida hadn’t been an outlier at all.

    (bold mine)

    Meanwhile the Florida Democrat Party fought tooth and nail against Grayson, who famously said that the Republican healthcare plan was “don’t get sick, if you do die quickly”, and went aggressivekly after the banks. The Democrat Party in Florida nuked him from orbit.

    As I recall, he was accused of influence peddling that pales in comparison to anything the Biden clan has done, but you know how that goes; if you aren’t on the same team, well, the rules are different. Or when Franken got MeToo’d.

    And on socialism; When was Biden running in 2020 no socialism? This dude must be high as a kite. This is why the Florida Democrat Party keeps losing; incapable of any intelligent reflection.

    But basically, we must get back to listening to the median voter. Bill Clinton got this. Barack Obama got this. Donald Trump gets this. That median voter probably isn’t the white “soccer mom” or “security mom” or “NASCAR dad” of elections past. Rather, the median voter today is just as likely to be a 38-year old African American father trying to figure out how to raise two kids, or a 28-year-old Hispanic woman struggling with affordable housing.

    Oh, this is a DLC-type. So, there you have it! We gotta get back to centrism. That’s the Florida Democrat Party. Not sure how centrism is gonna help that Hispanic woman struggling with affordable housing, to say nothing of food and healthcare! ObamaCare, mind you, was centrism! This dude is a tool.

    Reply
    1. steppenwolf fetchit

      Its probably a pre-emptive strike to pollute the wells of analysis to prevent a “not-left-enough” counter-theory from getting a toe-hold.

      Reply
  21. bob

    “NEW: Amazon charges 48,000 DC residents in Wards 7 & 8 for full Prime membership while excluding them from Prime delivery benefits.”

    Try living anywhere outside of a city…..

    Amazon seems to make it even slower if you don’t pay for prime. With prime it might take a week, without it’ll take 2.

    Reply
  22. Vicky Cookies

    Remarkably, perhaps, in the Tucker Carlson interview with Russian FM Lavrov, Mr. Lavrov stated that there are active back-channel communications between the U.S. and Russia, but that, through them, the U.S. is repeating the themes of more public facing messages.

    Can you imagine being a Russian radar operator and hearing Western media headlines?

    The interview is very worth watching.

    Reply
    1. AG

      Thanks!

      “them Western diplomats running away from Lavrov like children” – I liked that story. It reminded me of luncheons in the entertainment industry. Everyone got together and then spoke only to those they would speak to normally. And when there was someone you had an argument with (e.g. someone you had fucked over business-wise) – avoid, avoid, avoid.

      It’s the idiotic idea to simulate courtesy in the face of public. As if this were some Austian novel.
      But of course in truth it´s the same dumb trick as Lavrov shakes his head over – they run away and by avoiding him they think some Reaper Drone 10.000 miles away will take care of the poblem. Instead of admitting a mistake and talk it over with Lavrov in person. But those people can´t actually communicate like decent human beings. Be it the political class or entertainment folks. Which makes an argument for why Hollywood, the media and politics are so close in the West. They share the same sick rules of conduct and pathologic mindset. What he was picturing, it really felt familiar!

      Reply
  23. skippy

    Ref: CEO dead from lead poisoning …

    I’ve wondered when they might get on the menu sans the usual going postal event or political targets.

    I mean when the Übermensch Homo economicus stalwarts would – like most of human history – like the priests/administrators of the elites in antiquity start being taken out by the unwashed. Maybe like M Moors old TV the Awful Truth people will start live streaming these events or MSM will do it for them post event.

    Anywho … social psychology suggests such events can lead to more of them … till then …

    Reply
  24. Jason Boxman

    So imagine the rage from those that were forced take an experimental, non-sterilizing shot for which the manufacturer has liability immunity, or possibly lose employment, and face homelessness or starvation.

    It’s not just health insurance that people are angry about, although anger over that is more universal; those on the left were fully onboard with mandating non-sterilizing shots, because brunch. And The Science ™.

    Reply
    1. ambrit

      The American Electorate was given the choice between a Pseudo-Eugenicist Party and a Real Eugenicist Party. The result was predictable.

      Reply
  25. AG

    Caitlin Johnstone

    Phony Anti-Establishment Schtick

    https://consortiumnews.com/2024/12/05/caitlin-johnstone-phony-anti-establishment-schtick/

    “In 2028 U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, will probably run for president campaigning on the Democratic Party version of the same faux-populist message, just as Bernie Sanders did.

    This dynamic poses a major obstacle to those who yearn for real revolutionary change. It’s becoming increasingly necessary to not just stand against the status quo but against the fraudulent political factions which pretend to oppose it. It’s no longer enough to reject establishment politics and media, we also need to reject the fake anti-establishment politics and media which seek to herd a discontented populace away from meaningful revolutionary movements.

    There are probably people reading this right now who’ve fallen into this very trap, who started reading my stuff because they see me opposing wars and criticizing the media and assume I support the same things they support, even as they throw their support behind a fraudulent political movement that’s ultimately designed to keep the wars going and make the mass media propaganda more effective.

    Last time Trump was president I’d always get his fuzzbrained empire simps trying to convince me their guy was ending the wars and fighting against the deep state, twisting themselves into all kinds of cognitive pretzels when I’d present them with hard evidence to the contrary.”

    Reply

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