The Turks are in a celebratory mood following the collapse of the Syrian government which they helped orchestrate.
The Turkish internet is overflowing today with Erdoğan videos like this one…
They are shared by proponents of Turkish nationalism, neo-Ottomanism or even territorial expansion who praise Erdoğan for Türkiye’s role in Assad’s fall & the ejection of Russia & Iran from Syria
🇹🇷🇸🇾 pic.twitter.com/5sXFLVsYMc
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) December 7, 2024
There’s a belief that all the refugees will be returned. The Kurds will be defeated once and for all, and Turkish President Recep Erdogan will rule Syria through proxy. It’s hard to see how any of that happens, however. As Moon of Alabama pointed out:
Türkiye had nurtured and pushed the al-Qaeda derived Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to take Aleppo. It did not expect it to go any further. The fall of Syria is now becoming a problem for Türkiye as the U.S. is taking control of it. Washington will try to use HTS for its own interests which are, said mildly, not necessary compatible with whatever Türkiye may want to do.
A primary target for Türkiye are the Kurdish insurgents within Türkiye and their support from the Kurds in Syria. Organized as the Syrian Democratic Forces the Kurds are sponsored and controlled by the United States. The SDF are already fighting Erdogan’s SNA and any further Turkish intrusion into Syria will be confronted by them.
The SDF, supported by the U.S. occupation of east-Syria, is in control of the major oil, gas and wheat fields in the east of the country. Anyone who wants to rule in Damascus will need access to those resources to be able to finance the state.
The Turkish economy, while not on Syrian levels, is in no shape to prop up a rump Syria. The country was seeing decades-long highs in inflation of 80-plus percent in recent years as Erdogan insisted on keeping low interest rates. It was in such bad shape that Seymour Hersh reported that Biden promised to lean on the IMF for an $11-13 billion line of credit to Türkiye in exchange for Ankara’s vote to allow Sweden into NATO. While the IMF loan didn’t come to pass, Erdogan reversed course on interest rates and inflation is down but still high (47 percent in November). The country is also now in recession.
At the same time, it’s more than likely the refugee problem gets even worse. Türkiye currently hosts upwards of 3 million Syrians, and while Ankara is hurriedly pushing them back into Syria and the media expresses concern that the loss of low-paid refugees will hurt the economy, that seems short-sighted.
Islamist extremist turned freedom fighter Abu Mohammad al-Jolani is having his inclusive message that encourages refugees to return home spread far and wide by Western and Turkish media. His record and that of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham which he leads does not — to put it mildly — support such statements however.
Nonetheless, wishful thinking abounds in Türkiye.
Turkish Exceptionalism
Viewed from afar, the atmosphere reminds me of when I was living and working in Istanbul 2015-2017 at TRT World. At that time Project Syria was well underway although running into problems. Still, there was an atmosphere of euphoria among the elite at TRT (you had to be a well-connected Turk to get a position there) that Türkiye was on the march, reclaiming its rightful position as leader of the Muslim Arab world (despite the country’s population being less than five percent Arab), and there was full support for neo-Ottoman aspirations to expand Turkish influence, if not territory.
That euphoria frequently ran into reality checks, such as after the shooting down of a down Russian fighter jet in November of 2015. Despite the initial excitement, Türkiye was eventually forced to apologize and even arrested the pilots who fired on the Russian aircraft after Moscow retaliated with economic measures and military action in Syria. It ended up being more of an embarrassment for Türkiye.
Euphoria returned a few months after the conclusion of that incident when Turkish direct military involvement began in Syria in August of 2016.
While some observers place nationalism and Islamism apart in Turkish politics, the Türkiye of those years seemed more a fusion of Islamism and ethno-nationalism. It seemed this ideology finally hit a wall as Project Syria stalled out, Türkiye was stuck with at least 3 million refugees from the conflict, and the economy tanked. On the surface Ankara scaled back its ambitions, learning to work with an ascendant Russia and China and publicly renounced its use of jihadist mercenaries — even as it did not do so in practice. Meanwhile, Türkiye’s expansionist aims were not only lying dormant but potentially growing.
In elections of 2018 and 2023 the biggest winners were the Islamist nationalists who believe in Turkish superiority. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Iyi party took 21 percent of the vote and won 92 seats in parliament in 2018. Anti-refugee sentiment and economic hardships increased the vote share of Islamist ethno-nationalist parties in 2023, and they continue to have major influence on Turkish foreign policy. It’s not hard to draw a line between the history of say, the MHP, and Turkish support for extremist proxies.
The MHP was founded by Alparslan Turkes, an army colonel with links to Operation Gladio and it gathered strength with its tight relationship with right-wing paramilitaries like the Grey Wolves and Turkish organized crime in their CIA-backed battle against left-wingers, Communists, Kurdish, and Alevi organisations.
With their belief in Turkish superiority and goal to rule the Arab world, these forces are in many ways the flip side to the same coin of Zionism.
They are now emboldened.
Fahim Issa, head of Sultan Murad, thanks MHP head Bahceli and Erdogan for “making their dreams a reality.” Issa is a Turkmen and Grey Wolf; the dream is TR occupation of Syria.
And the int’l community calls on HTS and the Enver Pasha-loving SNA to protect minorities in Syria. pic.twitter.com/kxQxW2gwjk
— Lindsey Snell (@LindseySnell) December 8, 2024
Sanctions and The Kurds
This ethno-nationalist neo-Ottoman ascendant wing of the Turkish elite is obsessed with the defense industry almost as much as they are with the destruction of the Kurds.
Due to US sanctions on Turkish defense industries and the presence of the US in eastern Syria and Washington’s use of the Kurds as proxies the two issues are inextricably intertwined. Sen. Lindsey Graham offers a reminder:
I appreciate the air strikes against ISIS targets in Syria, but it will not be enough. We have to ensure that the roughly 50,000 ISIS prisoners in northeastern Syria — being primarily held by Kurdish forces — are not released.
We should not allow the Kurdish forces — who helped…
— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) December 9, 2024
The West, however, has been removing a lot of roadblocks for the Turkish defense industry in recent months.
It looks like the US is rethinking the sale of F-35s to Türkiye, which was dropped from the program over its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense system. On November 26, Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler said an agreement was reached that will see the S-400s remain inactive and that the Americans have reconsidered their stance on selling F-35 fighter jets to Türkiye.
Likely more important than the faulty F-35s is relief from the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which has been used against Türkiye to get it to fall in line. There’s also been a years-long unofficial embargo imposed by Western allies on Türkiye, which has hampered its defense sector development. Here’s former US Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland earlier this year:
“If we can resolve this S-400 issue, which we wish to do, the United States would be happy to welcome Türkiye back into the F-35 family. If we can get past this issue, sanctions under CAATSA will be removed and we can resume talks on the F-35.”
I haven’t seen any announcement from the US on the sanctions yet, but it is notable that the unofficial Western embargo recently came to an end. Der Spiegel recently reported that Germany’s Federal Security Council, which meets in secret, is approving the sale of $368 million worth of heavy weaponry to Türkiye, as well as reconsidering Türkiye’s request to purchase Eurofighter warplanes.
Türkiye also recently announced big plans for its own air defense project, one that likely reflects a belief that the end to sanctions — which hurt particular imports like semiconductors and microchips — are going to be relaxed.
Yet per Graham’s tweet above, it looks like the CAATSA sanctions will now be used in an effort to prevent Türkiye from steering its extremist army towards the US-backed Kurds in northeastern Syria.
On the Kurdish question, there’s been a lot of noise in Türkiye in recent months about a potential peace deal, which would be almost as shocking as Syria’s sudden collapse. Was that all another headfake?
Reuters reports that the US and Türkiye have a deal for US-backed Kurdish forces to withdraw from the town of Manbij, in northeastern Aleppo, Syria where they have been besieged there by Türkiye’s extremist proxies. Their retreat east of the Euphrates would be a win for Türkiye, but will it be enough? And can Ankara even continue to control the forces it has unleashed in Syria?
Türkiye’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, insisted on Sunday that any groups that were “an extension of the PKK” could not be part of talks on the future of Syria.
Will the threat of sanctions cancel out Türkiye’s desire to annihilate the Kurds. With the US and Türkiye it’s a waiting game between two non-agreement capable nations to see who will betray the other one first.
In the meantime we have a situation where an increasingly militarist government in Türkiye is desperate to project Turkish power but is simultaneously eager to get out from under sanctions holding back its defense industry.
Where Else Do US and Turkish Interests Overlap?
In some ways Türkiye, which is likely to be banished from future Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS developments (more on that below), is even more incentivized to push forward with expansionary aims in order to make itself an indispensable partner in the region — one that China and Russia are forced to continue to work with despite Turkish duplicitousness.
There’s a lot of talk that Türkiye wanted to do this while still having leverage over Russia, i.e., the Ukraine conflict still going on. The one big question is if — and this is an enormous if — the Trump administration can come to some agreement with Russia on Ukraine and the US overall belligerent policy towards Russia that extends from the Baltic and the Arctic to the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, Turkey would become less important. Are it and the US neocons done trying to reshape the board before Trump comes into office?
Because Türkiye is desperate to ramp up its homegrown defense industry for which it needs sanctions relief and because its economy is reliant on the EU, it’s unlikely it doubles down on its “success” in Syria with moves on Cyprus or disputes with Greece over islands and territorial waters in any serious way.
I think the question is where else do Turkish and US-Israel interests align. What Syria makes clear is that Türkiye’s imperialistic ambitions fit just fine with Washington — as long as it can be molded to fit US-Israel objectives as well:
The Zionist regime is moving troops deeper inside Syria. Meanwhile, it’s destroying all of Syria’s military infrastructure, including its navy.
Not a word from Erdogan or his Al-Qaeda henchmen.
Apparently, now that Syria is “free,” it should no longer be able to defend itself. pic.twitter.com/FTqsvBPqqR
— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) December 10, 2024
Note: Turkey did condemn Israel’s “occupying mentality” after its forces entered a UN-patrolled buffer zone in the Golan Heights, but is there any reason to take that more seriously than all Erdogan’s fiery rhetoric against Israel over the past year?
While differences remain on the Kurdish question, and Greater Israel and Greater Türkiye could be on a collision course, there’s still one area where the US, Israel, and Türkiye all see eye to eye.
Pan-Turkism and Weakening Iran
I’ve written about the Zangezur Corridor often (you can read more here and here) so I will keep this brief.
The Zangezur Corridor is a 42-kilometer strip of land in southern Armenia wedged between Azerbaijan and its exclave, Nakhchivan, and bordered by Iran to the south. While small it holds outsize importance for the region. That’s because it could deal a major blow to Iran (goal of Israel and therefore the US) while cementing Turkish power in the region.
On Saturday the Turkish Parliament’s Foreign Relations Committee Chair renewed calls to open the corridor and expressed his country’s readiness to in exchange normalize relations with Armenia. Türkiye believes it would lead to the country’s rise as an Eurasian Great Power. Here’s what Ankara envisions:
- A gas pipeline from Baku to Türkiye through the corridor.
- Increased leverage in negotiating gas prices with Iran.
- Resurrecting the Trans-Caspian pipeline and transporting that gas through Türkiye to Europe (A pipeline through a Nakhchivan corridor could help boost supplies to Europe to upwards of 31 bcm, although that would be years away, and ironically, due to its heavy investments in the Azerbaijani oil and gas sector, one of the bigger beneficiaries of any Brussels-Baku deals would be Russia. Azerbaijan is even importing more Russian gas itself in order to meet its obligations to Europe.
- A logistics corridor stretching to China.
- A railroad line from Türkiye to Nakhchivan could make Türkiye a regional transit hub in addition to an energy one.
It could require China to work with Türkiye on Middle Corridor logistics — especially if the West is successful with its Georgia color revolution efforts that would deal a major blow to Beijing’s efforts to open a huge Black Sea port there. The corridor could potentially deal a blow to Russia as well depending on the finer points of any deal.
The corridor situation for Iran has similarities to Syria. It would harm Iranian influence in the region in a major way.Iran would be eliminated as a bypass route around Armenia. Details from Al Monitor:
Iran earns a 15% commission from Azerbaijan’s gas supplies to Nakhchivan. It serves also as a route for Turkish exports to Central Asia. An average of about 12,000 Turkish trucks use the route monthly, with Iran charging passage fees of up to $800 for their 1,800-kilometer (1,120-mile) journey to the Turkmenistan border.
More than the money, however, Iran doesn’t want to lose influence over Azerbaijan, which relies on transit through Iran to connect to its exclave. And Tehran is especially worried about a NATO Turan Corridor which sees the West link up hypothetical client states throughout central Asia. From Dr. Vali Kaleji, a Tehran-based expert on Central Asia and Caucasian Studies:
Iran sees the creation of the Zangezur corridor as a matter beyond the access of the Republic of Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan exclave and believes that this corridor will provide direct military access for Türkiye as a NATO member in the Caucasus and west of the Caspian Sea. Indeed, a significant number of Iranian elites and experts believe that the expansion of Türkiye’s presence in the South Caucasus, especially through the Zangezur corridor, will strengthen pan-Turkism in the region, which is a direct threat to the Azeri regions of north-western Iran.
There’s been a lot of talk of red lines and the like, but what does Tehran do if Armenia, guided by the Americans, chooses to allow the opening of the corridor? Like Syria where Assad reportedly turned down Iranian assistance, is Iran really prepared to go against the wishes of another government in order to defend its interests — in this case something along the lines of occupying southern Armenia?
Azerbaijan is key. It enjoys a strong relationship with Russia, and while there are still holdups between Baku and Yerevan, it’s unclear if Azerbaijan wants the corridor under US guidance at the cost of damaging ties with its powerful neighbors in Iran and Russia. On the other hand, Azerbaijan’s closest ally is Türkiye, and Baku has major economic ties with Israel (and it’s believed a heavy Mossad presence in the country).
We’ll see. Türkiye and Erdogan are anything but predictable. While Türkiye might have its hands full in Syria, that doesn’t mean it won’t take on another major risk. It’s not hard to see the pieces sliding into place for an additional major move by the US-Israel neocon-Zionists and the Turks that would seemingly benefit both sides. The great question would be how Iran and Russia would react.
Win the Battle, Lose the War
Common wisdom is that Erdogan is the big winner in the toppling of the Assad government. Türkiye could also end up being the biggest loser long-term.
It could be swamped with more refugees. As the Syrian extremists are no longer united by the goal of deposing Assad and are faced with the impossible task of governing, prolonged power struggles are likely, which will force Türkiye to back a faction thereby making new enemies. . ANd it’s entirely possible — if not likely — that the fight comes to Türkiye and we see a return to the terrorist attacks that plagued the country in the mid-2010s. There’s also tension brewing at home over Türkiye’s ongoing poorly disguised support for Israel, which maybe Syria helps paper over a time, but is unlikely to go away.
It’s unclear what economic benefits this “victory” has for Türkiye. The Financial Times opined that “Türkiye, already struggling with high inflation and recession, would benefit from resuming full business and trade ties along the 900km Syrian-Turkish border. Its construction sector, which has close links to Erdoğan, could cash in on a rebuilding bill expected to run to hundreds of billions of dollars.”
Hard to see how that happens unless the country magically finds peace and security. It’s much more likely this all ends up blowing up in Türkiye’s face. I noted the similarities between American and Turkish exceptionalism. One major difference is that the US can make a mess and retreat to its home between two oceans. Syria shares a border with Türkiye, and the US has likely destabilized not just Syria but Türkiye as well with its support for the Turkish-led operation to topple Assad.
Ankara could end up missing Assad, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah and their stabilizing presence.
Unlike the euphoria following the 2015 shoot down of the Russian fighter jet, there won’t be any putting the toothpaste back in the tube this time following the inevitable come-down from the recent high.
At the same time, Türkiye has burned some serious bridges with Beijing and Moscow. The powers that are strengthening in the New Cold War (China, Russia, and even India) will not look kindly on a Türkiye willing to use extremist proxies to pursue its goals. They’ll look even less kindly on it after Turkish officials spent recent months lying to their faces. There were two paths open to Türkiye in the New Cold War, WWIII, or whatever you want to call it:
- Continue to play the middle ground as conflict in Ukraine continues while simultaneously forging stronger ties with Moscow, Beijing, the SCO, and BRICS. This is largely what Türkiye was doing and seemed to reflect an acknowledgement that while the Islamist ethno-nationalist short-term goals might align with declining US-Israel, Türkiye’s long term interests lie with good relations with all its neighbors, especially Russia.
- Side with one side. I’ve written often about how the West with its pressure campaigns and US-Israel genocide was making Türkiye’s position untenable. Shockingly, Türkiye decided it was more in its interests to bow to the US-Israel in this case rather than move in the other direction.
Now the Turks obviously don’t frame it as choosing door number two. They think they’re solely on the side of Türkiye and pursuing Turkish interests. But Russia, China, and the Global South will view it as a major betrayal. That’s because Türkiye didn’t just happen to have overlapping interests with the US-Israel in this case, but it spat in the face of what the BRICS and SCO stand for by relying on extremist mercenaries, violating sovereignty and agreements, and in retrospect it’s clear that Turkish officials were lying to the faces of their Russian and Chinese counterparts. You can read here what Erdogan and Turkish officials were telling the Russians and Chinese at the summer SCO summit, which coincidentally had a focus on settling the Syrian issue and bringing Türkiye into the operation to secure the Asian “heartland” from Western meddling and regime change operations.
Will China and Russia continue to work with Türkiye when necessary? Türkiye is counting on it as it relies on Russia for most of its gas and oil and is courting Chinese investment to serve as a backdoor into the EU customs union. But Turkey is now viewed as a problem that must be dealt with, not a country that can be enticed by economic carrots and appeals to mutual self-interest. It is an enemy to the project of Eurasian integration and SCO defense against imperialism.
And should Türkiye’s reliance on jihadists, Nazis, and Zionists blow up in its face, it will get very little sympathy from China, Russia, the BRICS, or SCO — nor for that matter will the West shed a tear.
Thanks for the post, Conor.
One aspect left out of this already long exploration of a messy and multifaceted situation is the Gulf States.
According to some Russian analysts with this move Turkiyet also managed to anger the Saudis and Qataris, who have been funding the “Syrian opposition” for a long time and are very averse towards any hints of rebuilding the Ottoman Empire. Apparently they are now quite likely to move towards Iran to (covertly) form an Arab-Persian alliance towards growing Turkic influence in the Arabic world to which Syria belongs.
I suspect that in the long run, Turkiye may find itself increasingly isolated. Erdogan is gambling that their strategic location (ex: control of the Bosphorous) will force the Russians and everyone else to work with Turkiye no matter what. The Arabic world doesn’t want another Ottoman Empire, they have lost the trust of the West, the Russians, Iranians, and Chinese.
Another issue is that the Turks may find themselves facing the very problem they claimed they wanted to resolve, namely a major increase in the amount of refugees. Syria could easily collapse into something like Libya after the US led invasion in 2011.
Yet another issue is that the Kurdish people may become resurgent as a result of Assad leaving the scene. They don’t want the Kurdish nationalist sentiment to suddenly become a big deal, and that’s partly why they did this move.
They may have overplayed their hand in this whole situation. I wonder if the Israelis and the US have done the same, as Larry Johnson has noted, back in 2003, the “Mission Accomplished” after the US toppled Saddam was premature.
It could be that Assad is replaced in this power vacuum by a more competent successor. This has happened with the various US drone operations to eliminate leaders of the enemies of the US government, only to find that the they took out the more moderate and less competent leaders.
As far as Kurds are concerned, one can make a safe bet that they will eff up.
I don’t understand the warhawk Graham, his constantly pounding the war drum, maybe if I put some effort into following the money he would make more sense. The fact he will use scare tactics like this quote “The last time ISIS was in charge, thousands of Europeans and Americans were killed by ISIS plots that originated in Syria.” with no shame says volumes about his character though.
>I don’t understand the warhawk Graham, his constantly pounding the war drum, maybe if I put some effort into following the money he would make more sense.
Because his lardass will never be near the front line of any war anywhere so it’s easy to talk tough.
What Trump says about Liz Cheney could easily be applied to Warhawk /Chickenhawk Graham.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47_XcdW7A7A&pp=ygUjVHJ1bXAgdGVsbGluZyBsaXogY2hlbmV5IHRvIGJlIHNob3Q%3D
As well as a closeted gay Repug desperately overcompensating.
I can’t speak for the US, but in Europe, hundreds of people were killed and hundreds more injured in IS attacks directed from Syria. It would be quite a good idea if these individuals dod not get back into power again.
It would make for a safer Europe, but is that the point? Are there some individuals or factions in Europe that want there to be Islamist terrorism in Europe?
There were quite substantial jihadist networks in Europe which facilitated these attacks, often based around Salaafist mosques. A disproportionate number of the foreign jihadists came from Belgium, where the authorities had thoughtfully designated a suburb of Brussels to concentrate Muslim immigrants, and sent to Saudi Arabia for some Imams. I think some of these people are still around. They not only supported the attacks, but they encouraged them in the hope that they would provoke an anti-Muslim backlash that would radicalise the Muslim populations of Europe. Fortunately, good sense largely prevailed and there was no noticeable backlash or radicalisation.
Thanks but my comment was a bit more jaded.
Such events are great justifications for additional crackdowns on free speech (the killers looked at pictures of dead Palestinian kids so we need shut down TikTok) or a war against Iran (“Unnamed sources are reporting signal intelligence that Iran ordered the attacks (when in fact they are Sunni attacks), so we need to allow Israel to launch a massive bombing campaign against Iran,”)
I’m not surprised at Lindsay’s chickenhawky fingers. And he truly should be a candidate for receiving white feathers.
50,000 prisoners?
I am careful in monitoring the news from the Mediterranean Basin (partly from self-defense). No one is covering this story:
50,000 prisoners? Who? Where?
This has been covered quite extensively, actually. During the years of the Caliphate, something between 50 and 60,000 foreigners from around 60 countries went to Syria. Some went to fight, some, especially the women, to help administer the Islamist regime. Many had children already, and many more children were born there. Understandably, the countries from which these people came don’t want them back because of the risks involved, and this has become a big political issue in a number of European countries, including France. They have been held in the camps of the Kurds/SDF (who don’t want them) and it’s not clear what will happen to them now. The figure of 50,000 its probably about right if you include women and children.
It would probably be a toss up as to who is more extreme. Those original captured fighters – or their wives. I’d be going with Door Number Two.
I guess I’m one of the few who see it as very problematic legal mess; YPG did not and does not hold any legal status in Syria, so how can it run prison camps there? Have these prisoners committed any crimes? Have they been sentenced? Can European countries prevent entry from their citizens? My country* can’t, and I assume many other have similar legislation.
But then again, laws mean very little in the New Europe, so I guess it’s not really a problem.
* there was a sort of scandal when our foreign minister arranged the return of some mothers with their small children from the camps. Oddly enough, later it turned out to be illegal to transfer children away from a war zone…
Yeah, some people were indicted for war crimes/genocide and had arrest warrants issued on their names…
I don’t think these are “prisoners” in the strict penal sense. A lot of them are prisoners of war (which any armed faction can hold) and the rest are displaced persons. Some of them are certainly guilty of some terrible things, but the chances of finding evidence, let alone convicting them, are small to non-existent. The fact is that they made some very bad choices and these are the consequences. They thought they were going to live happily in, and fight for, a triumphant Caliphate, and it didn’t work out. The problem is that a very large percentage haven’t abandoned their jihadist principles, and there’s a new generation of young men and women who have grown up in the camps and are looking for revenge on the countries that in their view stopped the Caliphate from succeeding. I don’t know what the answer is. I don’t know whether there is one.
Can European countries prevent entry from their citizens?
Let me add another facet to the conundrum: a number of European countries do not want those people to return and be judged for their deeds as members of Daesh or Al Qaeda.
Why? Because potentially very embarrassing information will surface when the tribunals start to examine evidence.
This was demonstrated several years ago when a couple of young guys of Tunisian origin left Germany to join one of the Islamist fighting factions in Syria. Shaken by the war and disabused by the role they were ordered to play there, they returned — and were promptly arrested and judged for participation in a terrorist organization.
During the process, their relatives were brought as witnesses. And see there: they had tried to prevent the youngsters from embarking on the jihad. For one of them, it was the parents. For the other, the elder brother. They went to the police, explained that their son/brother had been radicalized and was planning to join a jihadist organization in the Near East, they begged the police to arrest them, take away their passport, do something. And nothing was done.
In France, there were some internal reports of security services (Renseignements Généraux and the like) that clearly indicated the French authorities were not ignorant about the fact that numerous young guys from the “banlieues” had been so radicalized that they intended to join one of the jihadist outfits in Iraq or Syria. They were not fooled by those travel plans to Turkey. And more often than not, they did nothing to thwart them.
So while the MSM was presenting horror stories about those rampaging international jihadist head-choppers, the security services were knowingly letting recruits leave their countries to Iraq and Syria.
Let us face it: European authorities were happy to see their radicalized population of North African origin go away — even better, it was to fight the Assad régime! The calculus was that they would be killed and never return. Except that this did not happen, and that allowing suspected terrorists to travel unimpeded is against the law and, as I understand, some international convention.
Consider: thousands of French, Belgian, German, British, etc, nationals joined Al Nusra & co. If European security services were knowledgeable in just 10% of the cases what was happening, and let it happen, this will result in hundreds of processes where the question will be raised: “You knew that Mr X or Mrs Y was joining one of the worst terrorist outfits, but you did nothing. Why?”
And that is one reason — among others — why nobody wants those survivors to return to Europe.
HTS was treated as a resistance group when it was fighting the Assad regime, but now Assad is gone. Their terrorist designation will never be lifted. Washington and the MSM will “discover” that they are not moderate rebels but brutal and barbaric terrorists and accuse them of being pawns of another evil dictator, Erdogan. The treacherous sultan who wants to sit on two chairs is not loved by either Moscow or Washington.
The real winner in Syria is Israel. The world will welcome Israel’s “humanitarian intervention” in Syria, and the IDF will win in Syria the victory and prestige it never won in Lebanon or Gaza.
” MSM will “discover” that they are not moderate rebels but brutal and barbaric terrorists and accuse them of being pawns of another evil dictator, Erdogan”
Yes, and then Israel will have no choice but to be the benevolent heroes and occupy most of Syria to stop the jihadi abuses.
Israel may well be overextended, and come to regret having jihadists replacing the secular government of Syria. Their hope, and the neocon’s play here, IMHO, is to keep US ground forces in Syria, and expand their presence to join the Israelis in battle indefinitely. Trump wanted out of Syria last time. This play will try to lock him and US troops into ground combat in Syria/Lebanon/Israel for a decade. It is meant as the opening to the war on Iran.
That would be really bad for those US troops. Thanks to all those Ukrainian trainers that the US sent to those Jihadists, they now have experience with drone warfare and have already been using it-
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1866117066232902099
The Russians have been dealing with this for years now but would US troops in Syria be ready to deal with it? Trump should pull them out while he can.
“Israel may well be overextended…”
I keep hearing this from various sources often linked at NC but have yet to see any adverse effects of such overextension hindering Israeli military capability or its Palestinian genocide. Am I missing something?
I agree. In fact the entire Naked Capitalism community (myself included) and similar (Mershenhiemer, Ritter, Napolitino & his guests, Mate, everyone) seems to have gotten this completely wrong. Even Alister Crooke sounded annoying (as in why didnt someone as connected as he totally not see this until it happened?) on Napolitono telling us why Syria fell, given he seemed just as clueless earlier as we all were. Israel has seized some of Syria’s best land maybe even Damascus. With unlimited USA backing all of Syria might one day become Israel. Meanwhile, the delusionoids in charge of Iran STILL dithering weather to get nuclear weapons because of decades of blunders in deciding not to have them. Don’t they their own doom coming? Isreal has been loudly saying so for decades yet still Iran dithers. Bye bye, Iran?
From what I can tell, Kevork Almassian was about the only person warning of this, and even he underestimated how weak the Syrian army was.
I can’t watch Haiphong, Ritter, et al anymore: too much The Evil Empire Is Doomed cheerleading, and too much audience capture. Having established their audiences, they will keep giving them what they want and are trapped in that box, even when events show them to be laughably wrong.
I don’t trust myself anymore, let alone them.
Among the challenges of occupation of Syria, I would count economic attrition from the various boycotts, blockades and sanctions, still festering genocide and ethnic cleansing tasks, troop losses that are larger than they are accustomed to, and the cost of long-term deployments of troops who serve important roles in the civilian sector. The same problems as before, but with higher stakes, thus the existing need to get the US on the ground in war with Iran is both intensified and brought a few steps closer.
Yes, I read Israel being overextended means Israel is grabbing more territory than it can sustainably hold and control in the long term. We know they like to cover up the short term manpower problems…casualty rates, desertion rates, suicide rates. They’re also suffering from shortages of spare parts, fuel, ammo. They’ve gotten incredibly dependent on US aid, compared to pre-10/7 levels of aid.
They’re still struggling to finish strangling Gaza and heavily engaged in Lebanon (balanced on a knife’s edge). Now, they’ve got to seize the opportunity of grabbing more of the Golan Heights. It’s way too strategically important to pass up.
I don’t think IDF is able to mount a large-scale land grab in the West Bank, right now. It’s not because of their lack of motivation.
“The real winner in Syria is Israel” : That sentiment feels like an analogue of the proclamations of US victory in Iraq that abounded in the days after the removal of Saddam. At that moment, there was at best an opportunity to forge an eventual victory : i.e. the remaking of Iraq into a permanent US ally in the mould of West Germany or South Korea. Actually achieving that was beyond the US and it’s even more unlikely that Israel will manage the trick.
Israel does not care at all what kind of government rules over Syria, as long as it remains enfeebled, incapable of mustering enough forces and equipping them to become a military contender.
The country is perpetually embroiled in a civil war — like Lebanon once, Iraq more recently, or Syria and Libya for the past 13 years? So much the better: divided nations are less a danger for Israel.
As long as they can bomb Syria without fear of reprisal, keep their conquests in Southern Syria without being seriously contested, and suborn this or some other group to spy for them or assassinate for them (like the Lebanese Christians once, the Iraqi Kurds, or the Fatah in the West Bank), the Israelis are satisfied. If in addition they can entice those needy governments or militias to sell them oil and wheat on the side, what’s there to complain about?
They tried that with Lebanon, didn’t turn out too great for them.
Admittedly Hezbollah would be much stronger if Lebanon want such a basketball that is also filled with Falangist vipers and Sunni compradors, but Hezbollah arose precisely in reaction to Israeli invasion of Lebanon. If Israeli Jews were just a little less cruel and thieving, maybe they wouldn’t have had to turn themselves into a country of “Hillside Youths” which doesn’t seem to me like a viable long term strategy.
However, jihadist and insurrectionist forces all need arms – more and better and bigger all the time, and there are plenty sloshing about from the Ukraine. It’s only a matter of time before they can also be used on the Zionists, unless they are bought off. If that doesn’t work, and the reprisals are big enough, the Syrian parties might just all join together from time to time to resist.
Anyway, time will tell. It will also be very interesting to see how things work out between the US backed Kurds and the Turkish backed militias. Plenty of room there for dissension.
The American love their Sunni jihadis and will always find new uses for them.
One of the arguments for accommodating Erdogan was that his successor stood every chance of being captured within the ZioNATO camp and, thus, worse.
Although Turkiye’s position on Ukraine could be worse (for Russia) even now, if / as the UKR front winds down, that major piece of Erdogan leverage may also diminish, and Russia may be just as (un)happy with a new Turkish leader.
It’s sad to see Syria rendered helpless to defend herself. That guarantees that whatever government emerges, it will be weak.
About the only consolation is none of that gear will ever make it to Project Ukraine, thanks to Israel. One can imagine that Zelensky and Macron are having a bad day today. Hopefully someone takes Macron’s poodles into protective custody.
Mendell Rivers loaded South Carolina to the plimsoll line with defense projects and military bases. Lindsay Graham exports hot air.
To be seen in the near to mid term future is whether or not America abandons the Kurds yet again.
As mentioned in the piece, America presently backs the Kurds. With Turkey now being “free” to turn its full attention to the Kurdish “problem,” it will come down to who serves American interests more, Turkey or Kurdistan.
I’m wondering if the Kurds and Iran can ever come to some modus vivendi.
America is looking suspiciously like the dog that caught the car.
The Kurds are aligned with Israel and have been so for decades so Iran will never trust them. Ever. As for the choice between the Kurds and Turkiye, the US has betrayed the Kurds at lease twice in the past few decades. Think Charlie Brown and the football. But the US has a nuclear base in Turkiye that they do not want to lose so given a choice, they will dump the Kurds again.
The thing about Erdogan is that he is treacherous and will always betray you. That is true of a lot of politicians but in Erdogan’s case he will do so, even if it blows up in his face. As an example, he ordered the shooting down of a Russian jet in an elaborate ambush. He didn’t have to do it but he did for whatever reason. The Russians hit back with sanctions that made the Turkish economy scream so he had to back down. Another example is when he broke his promise to the Russians not to release those Azov Nazis for a bunch of Biden promises – which were reneged on almost straight away. He got nothing for them.
So here Erdogan is taking a victory lap but should he? He has just helped destroy a secular state on his border and now has Al-Qaeda running things there. The Syrians were helping put a lid on the Kurds but now they are gone and already there is all sorts of fighting breaking out in this region. There are a lot of terrorist groups now in Syria and all have their own motivations which may not line up with Erdogans. No doubt some of them want to pray in Sophia Grand Mosque. He will find that he will have to heavily reinforce his border with Syria no matter how hard it will hit his economy. Another own goal.
And then there is China. China knows that Erdogan has been hosting Uyghur Jihadists and has designs on China’s Xinjiang province because he thinks that it should be part of Greater Turkiye or something. If the Chinese think that he wants to do to Xinjiang province what he did to Syria, then they are going to arc up about that and take counter measures. What will they be? No idea but they won’t just sit back and let Erdogan do whatever he wants.
Many thanks, Conor Gallagher. In Istanbul, one eats well, even if you were dealing with ethno-religio-nationalism. There is always manti as an antidote, eh.
On BookFace, I’m seeing some leftoid crowing about the fall of Assad. Yes, it is important to get everyone out of Syrian prisons and admit that torture had gone on for years. No, the enemy of my enemy is not my friend. I will remain skeptical of Hayat Tahrir al Sham till I see the elections (elections?). Your piece has made my skepticism even more skeptical.
With regard to ethnonationalism in Turkey, my impression is that Erdogan, for various reasons, and possibly because of his own mixed ethnic background (his family hailing from a region that was once mainly Pontic Greeks), is combining Sunni orthodoxy with a kind of Turkish vision of grandeur (not exactly what Atatürk had in mind). My impression, too, is that many, many Turks are heterodox Muslims. I have had reason to research the Turkish Alevis (who aren’t at all like Syrian Alawites). They are a large group with little reason to trust Erdogan.
In short, after the fall of the Assad family, the Somozas of the Middle East, we must keep our eyes peeled for the next couple of years…
The leftoids don’t realize that the last quasi socialist republic has fallen?!
What will the leftoids say when Cuba also crashes, or Venezuela…?
I get the impression that Turkey is inevitably an unreliable partner for any of its neighbours and faraway “partners“ due to its geographical position and internal contradictions — it will always be a diplomatic challenge requiring skilful handling, caution and most of all, patience.
Which of its partners does this describe best? Not sure, but I am fairly confident whom it describes LEAST …
This Syrian event certainly opened my eyes a little wider. We have to remember that Washington’s reason for existing is war and what better “war” to fight than a WWIII to conquer the entire planet for itself and its vassals to feast on? As part of this Washington has managed to “turn” Erdogan to help the Empire to eventually capture Central Asia or at least keep it out of the hands of Russia/China/Iran who are the only forces opposing the spread of the Empire. West Asia has now been effectively captured by the US by using subtle means rather than the usual hammer.
Israel has tested the Empire’s relations with its own populations by reviving the brutal Nazi techniques of genocide in an almost cartoonish way which seem to be done just to see how far Israel can go in brutality before being stopped by Washington. So far, it seems that genocide, if conducted by Israel is just fine with the general public. Even right-wing podcasts which condemn our policies in Ukraine favor the brutal Israeli policies so that the only people online condemning Israel are usual fringe leftists I identify with (I took part in the anti-Vietnam war movement to a minor extent). Israel has come through with flying-colors in the info-sphere despite its obvious cruelty and blood lust. So we now live in a world where, from the point of view of the populations who are now subjects of the Empire, Israel, by definition, can do no wrong. Propaganda and control of the Narrative works and Orwell has scored a major win in his vision of the future. The “liberal” world order some of us dreamed of back in the 60’s is dead–Brave New Wordism has married 1984 and spawned a cynical, nihilistic baby that is destined to rule the world, or so it seems today.
I don’t think anything the head-choppers do will be critiqued just as the propagandists revived the false stories of Assad “gassing his own people” bullshit in justifying the clean sweep of Syria through Turkish aid, Qatari money, and US/UK/Israeli covert operators who clearly have been in Syria operating under the shadows. We have to remember, as many of us think now, that Al-qaeda and ISIS have always been creations of Imperial covert operatives.
We have to remember that this project is largely supported by the populations and leadership of the Empire. As an aside, note that the “Islamic” centered Sunni states in the region don’t care at all about the plight of Palestinians and won’t life a finger to help them because they fear the power of the Empire and also because like an increasing segment of the world populations nihilism is winning out as the dominant ideology of the world. Maybe something good will come of all that–I actually believe it will but that’s another story.
Chris Cosmos said: “Islamic” centered Sunni states in the region don’t care at all about the plight of Palestinians and won’t life a finger to help them because they fear the power of the Empire…”
no, the Saudis and other Sunni states don’t care about the Palestinians because Hamas is a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. So they want Israel to kill them all.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2019/9/23/what-is-behind-the-saudi-campaign-against-hamas
https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/saudi-arabia-crackdown-hamas-marks-another-costly-misstep
if I may respectfully add a caveat regarding online support of Israeli brutality and general support of the citizenry of the Empire to your excellent synopsis – Black/Brown/Native support for Palestine is considerable, particularly among young people, online and otherwise – likely because of similar historical experience. Our religious leaders were (for example) strong supporters for the civil rights and anti-war movements, also native/african influenced so that single issue anti choice voters are not near so prevalent as among the non-black/brown populace. No idea what the polls say tho, in all seriousness we don’t see those folks in the hood :)
“The Turkish economy, while not on Syrian levels, is in no shape to prop up a rump Syria.”
Even beyond the Turks plans, what are the chances that the nation state created as Syria is going to continue? Borders will be recarved…as they were just over 100 years ago.
Who knows what a “rump Syria” will resemble?
How badly does anyone in the region want to maintain the nation-state of Syria? If it can’t be sovereign (without puppet governments), the existence of a nation-state called Syria doesn’t matter. The same state of affairs can exist with puppet regions.
You have put your finger on a key question of the next few years: of what relevance will the nation state concept be to the future Middle East? And secondly: how will religious identities, concentrated in the various geographic regions, work with or against the modern nation state paradigm? With no centuries-long narrative to unite the disparate regions, (quite the opposite of Zionism, even with its various interpretations), the most likely outcomes would seem to be a multitude of mini “states” in constantly shifting alliances, or some very large imperial project which would require an emergent figure of some great military and political talent. The latter seems to be less likely.
As unpleasant as it might be, the future of the region might depend on what sort of governments come to power in the Zionist state, which itself is unsustainable in the long run.
That was an exposition of historical ignorance combined with cultural arrogance. There are fake states like Israel concocted by German settlers with Hollywood-Style name changes to hide East European roots and desert kingdoms like Saudi Arabia or Iraqi fishing villages like Kuwait………..
But Syria has history as a state long before anyone landed on American shores from outside – it was the centre of Christianity and of Islam – its forts were there for Crusaders
Greater Syria was the war aim before Picot outflanked Sykes. It was France that overview the Hashemite Kingdom of Syria proclaimed by Hussein in 1920 and occupied Syria carving out Lebanon and trading Bekaa Valley.
It was Britain that compensated Hussein with Hashemite Kingdom in Iraq and in Transjordan. It was Ibn Saud who seized the Hejaz and displaced the Sharif of Mecca as Hashemites were titled for centuries
There was a coherent Syria throughout history
Your tone is out of line and you need to provide links to substantiate claims like this. You NEVER do. Even Wikipedia shows what is now considered Syria as significantly or entirely under the control of other peoples and states. That is consistent with modern Syria having many ethnic minorities. From Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Syria
You are out of line…you write
“Even Wikipedia shows what is now considered Syria as significantly or entirely under the control of other peoples and states. That is consistent with modern Syria having many ethnic minorities. ”
USA and many other countries have manic ethnic minorities
then, Wikipedia is not reliable. I am surprised in fact that you point to it.
anyway you have an inaccurate use of “ethnic” about Syria. Syria like Lebanon and Jordan and Iraq and Palestina, are populated by Arabs, excepted Kurd minority. Differences are clanic religious.
A Christian Syrian and a Muslim Syrian are both ethnically same, like a Lutheran German and a Catholic German.
Lebanon and Syria are in ancient times what was called Phenicians and yes an old civilization that spawned across Mediterranean.
Hebrews came as semi-nomadic tribes from nowadays Iraq and finally settled in parts of Phenicean kingdoms that they captured. It is even mentioned in the Bible. Check the mentions about the origins of Abram/Abraham and the mentions of Hebron city.
In convinced Turkey cannot survive. Russia and Iran can now play the game Turkey and Israel played while Assad was in power. Turkey needs a lot of manpower to garrison Syria and HTS will implode.
No one in the region region trusts Erdogan
It was bad enough that Assad flaked but Erdogan ratted
Turkey lives from Russian tourism and Russian market – It makes Turkish oligarchs uneasy to antagonise Iran and Russia …….and China
Turkey buys weapons on credit – everything is a commission for the Erdogan clan but the equipment useless for Turkey in reality
Both Türkiye and Zionist Israel are restorationist in their eschatology. Türkiye wants the Ottoman regime reimposed as expansively as possible. Zionist Israel is looking to re-establish its notion of Greater Israel. Anything getting in the way is either demolished or dominated. A clash is inevitable. Palestine was once an Ottoman province. Greater Israel claims a chunk of the same territory as its own.
Indeed. It’s not likely that Greater Israel will want any Muslim state on the border that isn’t co-opted in some way.
If push comes to shove, does Türkiye really think being in NATO will amount to anything?
I read somewhere that the main reason the ziocons want S-400 out of Turkey is their possible threat to zionist aircraft. Any US armament sale to any country in MENA is calibrated to maintain izzie air supremacy.
You bet. If there’s any major strategic conclusion to get out of the ME wars over the past year, it’s that western air power can still smash a place to uninhabitable rubble in a hurry. Drones are definitely a clever, game-changing weapon that’s still evolving rapidly, of course.
Russia’s air defense has got to be the most sought-after bit of military hardware around, right now. A good S-400 system can give your country its sovereignty back!!!
That’s why USA did not allow Serbia to get S-400, but only some Chinese knock-off.
“You broke it; you bought it.”
I think that the Assad regime only survived thanks to Russian support that was a combination of post-Soviet loyalty and a vanity project that Russia could ill-afford. This past month realists inside the Russian government finally convinced the leadership to pull the rug out from under the Assad regime.
Meanwhile, the leadership in Iran appear uninterested in self-immolation. They have been measured in their retaliation against Israeli provocations. They were ready to intervene on behalf of the Assad regime; then suddenly they weren’t.
Time will tell if the Türks, the Israelis, and the Americans have bitten-off more than they can chew in Syria. They want the oil and gas but they will have it outside of the new BRICS economy. Enlightening piece!
So you think the Spanish Civil War and the Condor Legion bombing Guernica scared off Stalin and Chamberlain and Daladier and forced USA to declare neutrality until Hitler invited US to engage ?
Russia acted in Syria and unveiled Kalibr which was the first weapons surprise for US analysts – it also allowed combat training for Spetznaz and VVS snd direct contact in USAF air proximity.
It also allowed closer monitoring of Israel.
It was a success but unlike Afghanistan Russia was not going to assassinate Assad to put Mahir Al-Assad in power as their proxy nor commit forces. It is a Muslim country and Russia has more vital interests in Saudi and Turkey. Iran had no gains once Assad rebuffed them in 2021
Assad threw in the towel.
US just staged a coup in S Korea and overthrew an election in Romania. Germany will have a US candidate imposed in February just as U.K. had a glowie puppet installed last July
Russia and Iran and China have patience and contacts to Taliban which US does not. HTS is too weak to rule.
Stalin lost interest in Republican infighting and incompetence; the NKVD couldn’t bump-off all the anarchists and left-deviationists. He was never aligned with Chamberlain or Daladier, nor Baldwin or Léon Blum other than wanting to avoid a greater war. The USSR eventually withdrew from Spain and negotiated the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (how did that work out?).
The Russian military was highly successful in Syria, but they were propping-up a regime that the political leadership finally realized wasn’t worth saving. Russia needs to protect her own borders. Antagonizing the Israelis in Syria is not part of that equation.
The information filtering out about the last days of the Assad regime suggests that Russia and Iran didn’t want to leave but had no choice. The SAA generals stopped following orders and Assad was out to lunch.
If they stayed they would have been occupying forces propping up a puppet government. And even if they succeeded the forces in the Baathist government was tilting strongly towards the GCC and might sell them out down the line anyways. Plus the local population would have blamed them for anything that went wrong in the occupation. Russia already went through that in Afghanistan and certainly wouldn’t want to repeat it when they still have the European, Caucasus, and Central Asian fronts to watch over.
Russians and Iranians could not have been occupying forces because their military footprint is very small. When SAA folded, that was it. Trying some last stand in the desert makes no sense.
Concerning the Moon of Alabama suggestion that the HTS operation exceeded Turkish expectations:
1) Assuming this is true, then what was the plan/directive? Take Aleppo and nothing more? Take Aleppo, and if you can make it to Damascus, oust Assad and seize control then all the better — but we don’t expect that?
2) Marandi in a recent interview claimed that SAA soldiers were getting along the lines of $40/mo. where as “rebels” could be receiving as much as $2000/mo. Mercouris then said that he had it on “good authority” that members of the SAA were bribed to stand down/not contest. Was this a one time payment, or is recurrence expected? Did it trickle down to the rank and file? What of the members of the (former) SAA now?
3) If Türkiye had no concept of the possibility of a successful coup, and the conjecture about bribed military officers/personnel is correct, then it stands to reason that Türkiye was not responsible for the bribes. So who was? (I know, there are obvious suspects.)
4) Israel seemed to make it to the outskirts of Damascus pretty quickly themselves, as if they had a contigency plan for such an eventuality. Side-note: does the Israeli incursion give them a military advantage with regards to southern Lebanon, given that they now flank it to the east?
5) Israel also seemed pretty quick to the trigger in eliminating much of Syria’s major military assets, perhaps — in part — ensuring that no side in the conflict seized control and gained an advantage.
6) Did Türkiye just get played by Israel/US?
A couple of additions:
— I see that Yves made the same point in her latest post “The Collapse of Syria, BRICS, and Wishful Thinking” regarding Israel flanking Lebabnon I made in 4) above
— Perhaps all of the materiel that the U.S. has been pouring into Israel wasn’t intended solely for eliminating Hamas/Gazans and Hezbollah/Lebanese?
With regard to 5 above, these armaments were mostly Russian, and prime goods for re-export to the Ukraine. Did Russia make a deal here?
Please stop. Russia made no deal. I have debunked that repeatedly.
And in any event, Israel has been bombing every military installation it can find in Syria.
On top of that, please explain how such a “deal” could be executed, since Russia does not control the arms, the jihadists are decentralized, and any good goodies likely can be traded for decent personal profit.
Doctorow (Gilbert) interview on the views from Russia. Thoughtful:
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/
Erdogan’s supposed imperial ambition? Not according to geography and fate. For any and all LNG that transits onward from Turkiye, the only two countries for which can legally pay are Serbia and Hungary. Both of whom have bilateral contracts with Russia at fixed prices. (Turkstream, joint Rus-Turk venture, just ducks the fees it owes to Bulgaria, so Bulgarian government just taxes Russia!? Not sure how that works. Pretend?) In other words, Erdogan and Putin are each other’s energy cash machines. Any schism serves diplomatic ambiguity not the economic logic of this unholy gravy.
Erdogan is using Turkiye’s informational power to claim a victory in which Turkiye had no decisive role, using the chaos to re-negotiate its relationship with Iran, to scapegoat the Kurds as pin cushions for democracy in general, and, frankly, make nice with the new neighbors, angry young zealots.
The truth is Assad and his mukhabarat failed over and over to engage with the ISIS threat. Disappearing people en mass to overcompensate for a studious, spare heir image did not necessarily translate to creating prosperity. It just made people angry and vulnerable to radicalism, reasoning “if Assad needs Russia’s and Iran’s militaries to lock down this fiefdom, how is it his fiefdom?” To the faithful and angry, it was an injustice with demarcated territory offering a righteous battle for the ages. Assad was trespassing on their Ummah. God wills victory! So the boss chooses Israelis to drop Hezbollah and Pasdaran into the void, the legs of Assad’s apparatus. An immovable Ukraine exhausts Russia’s capacity for other extracurricular nation destroying.
More immediately, Russia needs its Latakia air base or else Africa operations are out. Putin had eyes and ears on the ground guarding stuff, watching Syria implode, helping it implode, for years now. It’s ambiguous, (strategic and otherwise) whether Putin recognizes a Turkish partner with whom the necessary future security can be achieved by new means. Or Turkiye’s is working this leverage as an adversary. A professional leaves all interpretations open.
Many have concluded that Russia is planning to abandon the air and naval bases because the cost of defending them are too high (and by implication, Russia can’t trust any guarantees that might be offered). Helmer has sources but he is not alone in coming to this view: https://johnhelmer.net/the-russian-general-staff-kremlin-discuss-holding-the-latakia-sanjak-to-defend-bases-agree-to-withdraw-under-turkish-safe-passage/
There is always the alevite option – the coastal areas are dominated by them, and they are scared shitless of the sunni majority terror group that looks like they will be in charge of Syria. Just do like the US did, and prop up them, as they did to the Kurds. Russia only needs a safe hinterland around the coast.
This was an option for them before their prior intervention – the question is if they can pull it off, presently.
Syrian bases became of less interest since 2022 and the issue of naval military freight through Turkish straights. Logistics Black Sea – Mediterranean became problematic. Syria was more important for airplanes carrying military personal.
Russia prepares for leaving yet holds contacts by now with the current islamic rulers just in case. These guys may or not follow blindly orders of Americans.
We are in an unusually stochastic moment until a couple more chips drop. However we can all but assure that:
1. Uyghur HTS fighters will be redeployed with heavy weapons ASAP to Xinjiang
2. Syria and Turkey will continue to be vectors for pro-Ukraine terror attacks inside Russia
3. ISIS style terror attacks will start happening in the west again
The Saudis seem like a potential wild card here. They love Israel and Turkey as peacetime partners, but if their wanton expansionism threatens the Arabian Peninsula, things could get interesting.
I’m still looking at Jordan and Egypt. How stable ARE those countries, really?
> Türkiye didn’t just happen to have overlapping interests with the US-Israel in this case, but it spat in the face of what the BRICS and SCO stand for by relying on extremist mercenaries, violating sovereignty and agreements, and in retrospect it’s clear that Turkish officials were lying to the faces of their Russian and Chinese counterparts.
Yeah, that part …
Don’t forget Israel needs anti-Semitism if it is to expand. Israel needs more people and the best way for them to achieve that is for them to be driven out of where they are by a backlash against Israeli actions made worse by the fact it is tabu in the Israeli community to disparage Israel. This affection for anti-Semitism has been openly referenced by Netanyahu.
*Sigh*
No, Israel merely needs to keep making accusations of anti-Semitism that are not laughed out of the room when they should be, as with Jeremy Corbyn. The main use is to silence Israel critics and thwart the BDS movement.
Turkiye has blithely stepped across a BRICS red line, it remains to see if that line is enforced.
BRICS disallows bloc behaviour and Turkiye has openly supported US imperialism in Syria, this will be enough to disqualify it from joining the bloc. Erdogan may have been too smart for his own good.
I have said elsewhere that the Turkiye BRICS application in September looks like a deception. Iran was warning Syria back in June.
And even if Turkiye were semi-serious, it would be simply to use the bid to extract more concessions from NATO and the Collective West. It has tons of leverage as a critical and not 100% reliable NATO member. It has nothing even remotely comparable to gain from BRICS any time soon. It is hard to think that BRICS would allow Turkiye in as a member of NATO.
When I read that Erdogan was refusing to raise interest rates, I thought he must have listened to Warren Mosler (“the natural rate of interest is zero”) who claims that interest rates have no means to affect inflation except for making inflation worse. But then, I realized that Erdogan has not a clue about MMT and is scandalously confused.
For those interested, inflation could be controlled by massive government spending to increase production while at the same time taxing heavily to remove that spent money. But, nations controlled by oligarchs, such as the US and many others, will never allow the oligarchs to be taxed (that is how they get to be oligarchs).
Alexander Mercouris mentions this article at 100:08:25
https://youtu.be/VyYD3_CVnXA
He then goes on to discuss the follow-up article by Yves Smith, including his own analysis on the commentariat