Erdogan Backstabs His Way Into Center of Middle East Conflict

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan just had a phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Nov. 24 in which the former reportedly talked up plans to expand cooperation as the two countries have done in recent years. Part of that includes years of Moscow holding the hands of Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in an effort to mend ties due to Türkiye’s key role in the dirty war effort to topple the Assad government.

Beijing was also interested in seeing that reconciliation happen and were led by Erdogan to believe it was in the cards and that Türkiye’s days of launching jihadi operations were over.

The Turkish people are also overwhelmingly against the Israel-US rampage through the Middle East, and Erdogan has spent the past year-plus railing against their crimes and selling the people on stopping the flow of supplies to Tel Aviv vital for its genocidal operations (in reality he’s only been disguising it).

Erdogan stabbed them all in the back when it launched its paramilitary forces in northwestern Syria into action last week in the most intense fighting in northwestern Syria since 2020, when Russian-backed government forces seized areas previously controlled by opposition fighters.

US proxies — Ukrainian neo-Nazis, Islamic fundamentalists, and Zionist genocidaires — are all converging on Syria in a renewed attempt to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad or at least peel off more territory ahead of any potential settlement and weaken the influence of Tehran in the country.

Türkiye, as the biggest backer of the Islamist paramilitaries Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, is playing a central role. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is denying Ankara involvement, but while that’s implausible enough given that Türkiye has long provided all types of support, it’s even more so considering that the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army militia reportedly participated in the battle alongside HTS. Elsewhere, Turkish security sources are saying they attempted to prevent the offensive but were unsuccessful while adding that it’s only “a limited offensive.”

While many in various corners are celebrating the offensive thinking this will weaken Russia (reports are that Russia is having to send reinforcement to Syria) and finally topple the hated Assad, a few things to keep in mind:

-HTS aren’t “rebels”, they’re the strongest iteration of AQ, ever
-Türkiye’s SNA/partnership with HTS don’t make it a “threat” to Israel, as Türkiye actively aids Israel (see: Aleppo)
-US/West is in favor of, if not behind this operation (see: scumbag thinktankers celebrating)

— Lindsey Snell (@LindseySnell) November 29, 2024

What Is Türkiye Doing in Syria?

Here is the state of the situation in Syria as of Sunday morning, according to Elijah J Magnier:

The Syrian opposition forces, primarily led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Ahrar al-Sham, with support from Islamist jihadist groups, have launched a significant ground offensive over the past 48 hours in rural Idlib, rural Aleppo, and parts of Aleppo city supported by drones and armoured battalions. In a rapid and well-coordinated advance, they have captured dozens of villages, including strategic areas along the M4 and M5 international highways connecting Damascus to Aleppo and Aleppo to Latakia, as well as the critical cities of Saraqeb and most of Aleppo. With the Syrian army’s defensive lines nearly nonexistent, it appears only a matter of time before opposition forces gain complete control of Aleppo city. Reclaiming these losses would require tens of thousands of troops, a resource the Syrian army does not currently possess.

Some reports now say that the opposition groups are already in control of Aleppo and Syrian government forces fell back to prepare for a counterattack.

The Turkish-backed offensive is conveniently timed to coincide with the Lebanon “ceasefire,” and according to Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli officials view the advance on Aleppo as an opportunity to weaken Syria. That is unsurprising as it’s widely believed that Israel, thwarted in its ground invasion of Lebanon, has circled back to its previous backup plan following its 2006 failure in Lebanon, which is to eliminate Iran’s ability to resupply Hezbollah via Syria.

Türkiye is helping. As Syrian Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh said on 29 November, the Turkish-HTS offensive comes “within the framework of serving the goals of the Israeli occupation entity and its sponsors.”

Not only are Erdogan’s denunciations of Tel Aviv empty words, but it appears he is actively conspiring with Netanyahu and the US in Syria.

According to AFP and Russia’s Izvestia, Turkish intelligence gave the green light to and is helping to direct the offensive. It was coordinated between Turkish, Ukrainian, and French intelligence, with Israeli backing and US approval. HTS also receives considerable support from Ukrainian special forces with a focus on drone warfare to target Russian and Syrian positions — a connection facilitated by the Turks.

The US, like Turkey, is denying any involvement in the HTS-led offensive, but claimed the reason for Syria’s problems are Assad’s “reliance on Russia and Iran.”

Elsewhere in Syria, Israel is working in tandem with ISIS. Here’s what Syrian researcher, former soldier and journalist Ibrahim Wahdi told Vanessa Beeley about one such IAF attack on Syrian forces in Palmyra:

Local sources said that the Zionist aggression on the SAA and auxiliary forces in Palmyra city came during their rest after returning from military missions in the central Syrian desert.

According to field sources these units had been engaged in fierce clashes with ISIS terrorist groups in the Al Shoula area of the Deir Ezzor desert after they had been spotted infiltrating from within the US-imposed 55km exclusion zone around the US unlawful military base of Al Tanf on the border with Jordan, taking advantage of heavy fog to try and advance towards Syrian allied positions.

The Syrian allied forces routed the ISIS terrorists and caused significant injures and deaths among their ranks. Israel attacked Palmyra from the Al Tanf “protected” airspace therefore we can conclude that Israel was supporting the ISIS terrorist operations with airstrikes against the forces that have been entirely responsible for the defeat of ISIS in Syria with the help of the Russian Airforce since September 2015.

Beeley’s conclusion:

Israel is trying to decimate the Syrian Air Defence capability, demoralise and deplete Syrian armed forces and to destroy the essential infrastructure that provides a road link to Lebanon and the Hezbollah resistance forces. At the same time the US and Israel are bombing the Al Bukamal border crossing with Iraq to try to close the land bridge between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Thus they are intending to isolate both Lebanon and Syria from their allies and to break the links in the Resistance chain of supply which includes humanitarian aid, energy resources to combat the US occupation of Syrian resources, and military equipment to support the Resistance.

…The plan is clear – to deplete Syrian military capability and to keep the Syrian Arab Army busy on multiple fronts – in the north-west (Idlib), in the north (Türkiye and former Free Syrian Army proxies), in the north-east (US and Kurdish Contras), in the east (US base at Al-Tanf incubator for terror gangs including ISIS) and in the south (possible land invasion by Israel and Druze separatists backed by Israel, remnants of illegal armed groups in Daraa and surrounding countryside).

HTS (at that time still known as Al Nusra) and other jihadist groups previously had control of the majority of Syrian territory in the mid-2010s, before a major intervention by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah swung the situation in the other direction. According to Military Watch, the only reason HTS can continue to operate northwestern Syria is because Turkey has the area under its protection with military bases. Past Syrian efforts to defeat HTS and retake Idlib were squashed by the Turks, including air and artillery support to target Syrian positions and protect jihadists.

Turkey by assisting HTS and others in the current offensive — if not directing it — is violating the 2019 agreement it sponsored along with Russia and Iran to freeze the line of the conflict.

Since that 2019 agreement the US has kept up sanctions in an effort to strangle Syria while Israel continued to bomb groups that it claimed were Iranian revolutionary guards or Hezbollah militants. It would appear Erdogan simply used the 2019 freeze not to work towards a permanent peace with Assad’s Syria, but to rearm and prepare.

Erdogan Calculations

Erdogan’s interests in this case overlap with the US-Ukraine-Israel group. The diehard neo-Ottoman ambitions of Erdogan and his clique, which wish to see Turkey strengthen its influence over much of the former empire, coincide with the US-Ukraine-Israel’s desire to curtail Russian and Iranian influence curtailed in the region.

At the bare minimum Türkiye is looking to get more territory under its and its proxies control in Syria ahead of any permanent settlement (potentially under Trump II) for refugee return and which would also allow Ankara better positioning to neutralize the Kurdish forces it sees as a threat. Türkiye hosts more than three million Syrians, which Erdogan is under pressure domestically to do something about, and has been accused of coercing thousands into signing declarations of “voluntary return.” As the security environment “strengthens” in Syria, Erdogan says more Syrians will be expelled from Türkiye.

Turkish President Erdogan:

Voluntary returns to Syria will accelerate. pic.twitter.com/MDlOzRQoTy

— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 29, 2024

That’s the generous view. The other is that all Erdogan’s talk about joining the BRICS, SCO, statements against Israel, thawing ties with Assad, (Syria wants Erdogan to withdraw troops and Islamist paramilitary groups before normalizing ties, which Erdogan refuses to do) have been a big head fake.

Burning Moscow — Again

Ankara faces a difficult balancing act with Moscow. Türkiye does not want to see Russia (or Iran) become too strong in the region and has always used the US as a counterweight. At the same time, Russia and Türkiye have a mutually beneficial economic relationship — one that has been critical to Erdogan’s political survival and helpful to Moscow in bypassing Western sanctions.

The US is increasingly putting that arrangement under strain by slapping more sanctions on Turkish and Russian entities, including recent restrictions on Gazprombank, which is linked to the Russian gas giant. Ankara is trying to get the US to agree to a waiver, a decision Washington would be unlikely to take without something in return.

Türkiye gets nearly half of its natural gas and a quarter of its oil from Russia on good deals. Russia even showed flexibility on payment to help Erdogan get re-elected this year.

Russian tourism to Turkiye has gone through the roof since the war in Ukraine and western sanctions started. Russia is also completing work on a nuclear power plant in Türkiye, a major milestone for the country on a deal beneficial to Türkiye, which includes the training of nuclear engineers by the Russians. Not only that, but Ugur Gurses, a former Turkish central banker, believes the Russians were using that plant to  transfer funds by purchasing Turkish bonds instead of direct bank transfers in a boost to Türkiye’s foreign reserves in a bid to help Erdogan get re-elected, which he did in the closest call in his two-decade rule.

Erdogan’s calculations in Syria likely conclude that Russia cannot retaliate too hard… yet. Erdogan similarly reneged on a deal with Russia last year when he returned Azov fighters in Turkish custody to Ukraine in violation of a prisoner exchange deal. While Moscow would no doubt be furious over Turkish support for the Syrian offensive, Russia  also wants to ensure going forward that Türkiye will continue to keep the Turkish Straits closed to NATO warships thereby keeping them out of the Black Sea. Russia wants to continue to send oil and gas to and through Türkiye to remaining European customers. Russia also needs to maintain good ties with Azerbaijan, which is close to Israel and Türkiye, for transport corridor purposes.

Meanwhile, Türkiye is getting a lot of good will from the West recently.

It looks like the US is rethinking the sale of F-35s to Türkiye, which was dropped from the program over its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense system. It was rumored that Türkiye would have to hand over the S-400s for readmission to the F-35 program, but in light of the recent developments in Syria, maybe that’s not what the Americans were after. Der Spiegel recently reported that Germany’s Federal Security Council, which meets in secret, is approving the sale of $368 million worth of heavy weaponry to Türkiye, as well as reconsidering Türkiye’s request to purchase Eurofighter warplanes. That’s big news as it marks the end of a years-long unofficial embargo imposed by Western allies on Türkiye, which has hampered its defense sector development.

Burning China and the SCO

One of the biggest items on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) agenda at this summer’s summit, which Türkiye attended, was the resolution of the Syria issue.

The SCO has always emphasized the importance of combating terrorism and radicalism, especially in Central Asia where the US has tried to stir up trouble in recent years to no avail as investment by China and Russia in these countries dwarfs what the West has on offer. The recent summit, however, was seen as an expansion of the SCO’s ambitions to become the security provider to the Eurasian continent.

What the SCO wants to guard against above all else is efforts by the West to use terrorism or any other division strategies to thwart the growing power and economic integration of its member states.

Erdoğan attended the SCO summit and played up Türkiye’s potential contributions to the organization. Here he is alongside President Xi Jinping:

“The organization has become one of our important dialogue channels with Asia owing to our dialogue partner status, which we’ve held since 2013,” he said. “Our many years of experience fighting terrorism show that international cooperation is essential to dealing with this threat. In this context, we are ready to further strengthen our dialogue with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.”

In reality, Erdogan has done more supporting of terrorism than fighting. The Idlib governate straddling the Turkish border controlled by jihadist groups and supported by Ankara for is the primary hub of Islamist terror operations not only in Syria but also one of the biggest in the world.

Erdogan had an opportunity to wind that down, but instead looks to be doubling down, and Beijing is sure to be upset with his latest demonstration that he cannot be trusted.

Erdoğan, once an outspoken critic of Beijing due to its alleged treatment of Uyghurs, a Muslim minority of Turkic origin in western China, has almost completely dropped his criticism in recent years.

Both Erdoğan at the SCO summit and FM Fidan on his summer trip to China (where he said Türkiye “will not allow activities in Türkiye that undermine China’s territorial integrity” in reference to support for jihadists that could aid Xinjiang separatists) were asking for more investment from Beijing in Türkiye. (The EU-27 countries still contribute 59 percent of Türkiye’s foreign direct investment inflows.)

Beijing was slowly obliging. Chinese automotive company BYD recently announced that it will construct a $1 billion plant in western Türkiye. Ali Baba is planning to invest $2 billion in Turkiye. The Chinese lithium-ion power batteries company Farisis started production at a plant near Istanbul last year. Ankara is also in separate talks with Chinese EV makers SAIC Motor Corp., Chery Automobile, and Great Wall Motor Co for investments in factories in Türkiye.

One wonders if Beijing is rethinking.

Uyghur-led Turkestan Islamic Party advertising its involvement in the insurgent offensive, participating in the battles extended from Saraqeb in Idlib countryside to Morek in north Hama countryside pic.twitter.com/q6XRlVObVH

— Aymenn J Al-Tamimi (@ajaltamimi) November 30, 2024

Shortsighted Calculations?

Erdogan’s ongoing support for extremist groups not only puts the economic relationship with China and Russia at risk, but if he’s doing so in part due to promises from the West, that could end up coming back to bite him. Like Erdogan, the US-led West is not agreement-capable, and any sanctions relief, F-35 deals, or Zangezur corridor promises could be snatched away as quickly as they’ve been gifted.

There’s also a good chance that Türkiye is throwing in with the losing side. An Iranian response to Israel is supposedly still coming. This renewed push by US proxies in Syria makes it more likely it’s going to be a strong one this time.

And the Moscow and Damascus response is already underway in Syria. From Military Watch:

…it was reported that over 400 militants were killed in the first 24 hours of engagements. The casualties were reported by deputy chief of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria, Captain 1st rank Oleg Ignasyuk, who stated: “Illegal armed units linked to the Jabhat Al Nusra terrorist organization started to attack government-controlled areas in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib at 7:50 a.m. on November 27. The Syrian army, backed by Russia’s Aerospace Forces, is engaged in heavy fighting. Terrorist units suffered major troop and equipment losses in the past 24 hours. At least 400 militants were eliminated.” The figures appear credible when considering Al Nusa’s demonstrated ability in the past to absorb massive casualties during its offensives, as well as the heavily fortified nature of the Syrian Arab Army’s positions between Aleppo and the Idlib governate where the jihadist group’s forces are based. Reports have indicated that foreign advisors supporting the offensives of have also been killed, with both Türkiye and Ukraine having provided such support to Al Nusra in the front.

Russian jets very active in Syria right now. Their job is to deplete militant resources, destroy logistics, inflict as many casualties as possible, anything that slows them down. Air power can’t hold a city, but it can make life very unpleasant for the bad guys – and buy time.

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) November 30, 2024

According to Larry Johnson at Sonar21, “Reports on Telegram indicate that Syria, with ample support from Russia, are responding effectively to defeat the HTS attack. “

As referenced above, Russia might want Türkiye’s cooperation on the Black Sea and economic fronts for now, but for how much longer is it deemed necessary? Put another way, at what point does the cost of catering to Erdogan outweigh the benefits?

Maybe Russia, armed with its actual wonder weapons (as opposed to the imaginary Western ones), decides it’ll deal with the consequences of the Turkish straits being opened to NATO warships. Maybe Moscow decides it has enough other oil and gas customers, and it’ll take the hit by forgoing the exports to Türkiye and southeastern Europe. And there are other nations willing to help Russia bypass sanctions — although not in the EU customs union like Turkey.

Russia likely doesn’t want an even worse Türkiye headache at this time, but once Ukraine is eventually wrapped up, it could be bad news for Erdogan and his inner circle. It could be bad news even sooner if the majority of Turks figure out he’s playing them with all his fiery rhetoric against Israel.

We recently wrote about the potential spread of the Middle East conflict to the Caucasus region. All the major players from the Middle East conflicts are heavily involved in geopolitical maneuvering in the Caucasus. With Türkiye’s dramatic step into the ring and the Georgia color revolution attempt in full swing, as well as ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions with a heavy American presence in the former, it unfortunately looks like we’re inching closer to the Caucasus becoming another theater of the increasingly global New Cold War conflict.