Links 12/14/2024

Rare beaked whale delights scientists Tagesschau via machine translation (Micael T). But it’s dead :-(

Flu EXPLOSION: Shocking one in four adults who are sick have flu – double last year’s rate… as terrifying ‘quad-demic’ surge engulfs Britain hospitalising thousands Daily Mail

Formaldehyde Causes More Cancer Than Any Other Toxic Air Pollutant. Little Is Being Done to Curb the Risk. ProPublica (Robin K)

Dementia Incidence Linked to Inflammatory Foods MedPage. Caffeine is anti-inflammatory, along with calorie restriction

Climate/Environment

Rising wood fuel consumption shows limits of energy transition JKempEnergy

Climate Science Legal Defense Fund gears up for a busy four years Yale Climate Connections (Dr. Kevin)

Polluting shipwrecks are the ticking time-bomb at the bottom of our oceans The Conversation (Kevin W)

Cambodia’s giant lake shrinks as climate change, Mekong dams cut fish supply Nikkei

China?

China pledges more debt, rate cuts as Trump tariff threats loom Reuters

US Curbs Scope of China Science Accord Amid Tech Rivalry Associated Press

Wang Yongli clarifies China’s issuance of USD-denominated Sovereign Bonds in Saudi Arabia Pekinology. We debunked the hype over this in comments early on.

Koreas

South Korea MPs vote to impeach president after mass protests over martial law BBC

Korean economy on alert amid rising debt, weak consumption Pulse

Africa

Mali arrests, Niger site seizure rattle Western miners Reuters

Mining firm defaults on US loans amid Mozambique political unrest EEnews

European Disunion

ECB cuts rates again and keeps door open to further cuts Reuters

Macron appoints centrist ally François Bayrou as France’s fourth prime minister in 2024 Le Monde

The Economic Roots of France’s Political Collapse Daily Economy

Revealed: The ‘Vested Interests’ on the EU’s Agriculture Committee DesmogBlog

What Ireland’s Great Famine can teach us about the EU-Mercosur free trade deal Thomas Fazi

European countries quarrel over gas Vzglyad via machine translation (Micael T)

Swedish minister open to new measures to tackle energy crisis, blames German nuclear phase-out Euractiv

Old Blighty

UK economy shrinks again in another blow to Reeves, new figures show Independent

Britain’s farmers are braced for £600m of collective losses after poor weather led to the second-worst harvest on record Telegraph

NFU chief says he ‘cannot rule out’ food shortages if farmers go on strike Sky

Israel v. the Resistance

Enduring the Trauma of Genocide (w/ Gabor Maté) Chris Hedges (Chuck L)

Meetings at The Hague reveal crisis and turmoil, as state representatives grapple with Israeli warrants Mondoweiss

Iran’s currency drops to lowest rate ever against the dollar Intellinews

New Not-So-Cold War

Russia launches huge attack on Ukraine with dozens of cruise missiles and drones Guardian. So now it’s official.

Russia Retaliates For ATACMS Strike – Improves Trolling Moon of Alabama (Kevin W)

EU prepares first sanctions against Russia for disinformation – Bloomberg Ukrainska Pravda

Ending the War in Ukraine: Analysis and Recommendations Paul Robinson. Mentioned approvingly by Alexander Mercouris

Syraqistan

Pieces Begin Slowly Falling into Place in ‘New Syria’ Simplicius

Inside Israel’s opportunistic invasion of Syria Mondoweiss (guurst)

Prof. Mohammad Marandi | Syria’s Truth: No Winners, Only LOSERS – Short & Long-Term Chaos EXPOSED Dialogue Works. A contrary view on what the collapse of Syria means for Hezbollah and Iran. We’ll see in due course if his take is proven correct.

The Roads to Damascus Tariq Ali, New Left Review (Robin K)

Erdoğan’s Syria? Cihan Tuğal, New Left Review (Robin K)

Turkey: A slim majority of Turks sees Assad dynasty’s fall as positive Middle East Eye

Turkish-backed fighters accused of executing Kurdish soldiers in hospital Telegraph

Russia appears to pull back its forces in Syria Financial Times. As we predicted

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

Imperial Collapse Watch

NATO must shift to wartime mindset, secretary general warns Sky

Resource nationalism on the rise amid geopolitical tensions Financial Times

US, China, Russia gearing up for space wars to come Asia Times (Kevin W)

The Stinking Legacy-Prisons and concentration camps of the USA Marat Khairullin (guurst)

1/6

The Jan. 6 Verdict Is In: The Rioters Lose, Even If Trump Pardons Them Politico (Kevin W)

Trump 2.0

Ontario threatens to cut off US’s power over Trump tariff row Telegraph

Trump aides mull abolishing FDIC as part of dramatic banking deregulation spree: report New York Post. This would instantly crash the banking system.

Attacking Iran Would Be Insane Daniel Larison

Biden

Important. Please click through or read the threadreader:

Biden commutes sentence of Luzerne County kids-for-cash scandal judge Conahan WVIA. James C: “Helping to slaughter thousands of Palestinian children wasn’t enough for Joe. Now he’s giving a pass on torturing US kids.” Moi: This case was so notoriously awful that it inspired a segment on Law and Order: SVU. See here for the trailer.

Victims ‘shocked’ after Biden grants clemency to ‘kids-for-cash’ judge and $54 million embezzler CNN (Kevin W)

NYT: Pelosi fractures hip in fall abroad SFExaminer. This was destined to happen unless she was religiously doing balance exercises. At 84, she was wearing high heels (see here) and regularly walking on very hard floors (note other shoes now fashionable for women, lower “kitten” heels with a tiny point of contact, are also risky despite looking otherwise). The odds of death in older people rise dramatically in the six months following a bad fall.

Abortion

Texas AG sues New York doctor for providing abortion pills across state lines The Hill

Woke Watch

The truth about the Woke Right Unherd

AI

1 big thing: Chatbots are learning to lie Axios (Dr. Kevin)

OpenAI whistleblower found dead in San Francisco apartment Mercury News (Kevin W)

Legal Tech Unicorn EvenUp Relied Heavily on Humans Despite AI Claims Business Insider

The Bezzle

Texas House Introduces Bill To Establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve CNBC

McKinsey to pay $650M settlement over Purdue opioid consulting, reports say Axios (Dr. Kevin)

Guillotine Watch

Florida mom arrested for saying ‘Delay Deny Depose’ on call with BlueCross BlueShield health insurer: ‘You people are next’ New York Post

A Manifesto Against For-Profit Health Insurance Companies Michael Moore

Bret Stephens: A Real Upper Class Asshole – and Journalism Fraud and Liar Too Washington Babylon (Micael T)

Class Warfare

Americans spend more years sick than rest of world: Study Bloomberg (Robin K)

A Holiday Strike at Amazon? Drop Site (Micael T)

Antidote du jour. A very old one from Mark T that I just found in my inbox. “I am a rescue cat who’s a bit special, but now have a home :-)”

And a bonus (Chuck L). I had no idea snowy owls were so large:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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134 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    “NYT: Pelosi fractures hip in fall abroad”

    ‘The odds of death in older people rise dramatically in the six months following a bad fall.’

    I read the same earlier today but here is the thing. When Nancy shuffles off her mortal coil to go the great counting-house in the sky, what if on the internet she gets the same treatment as that assassinated CEO? That people come out and call her out on what sort of person she really was. She once called herself the most progressive Democrat in the House but does anybody believe that? We may soon find out.

    Reply
    1. Carla

      Rich Democrats believed Pelosi was the most progressive Democrat in the House because she was the [only] kind of Democrat they could get behind. Nobody else believed it of course.

      Reply
    2. Wukchumni

      Let’s start a GoFunMe campaign for Nancy…

      Urgently needed:

      Noisemakers-in particular the ones that roll out like a 10 inch tongue, kazoos, elongated clown shoes with exaggerated features, and of course any sort of party favor you can think of.

      Reply
        1. Carolinian

          While I’m no expert on cosmetic surgery it seems obvious that Pelosi has had a bit of it. It would be ironic indeed if her vanity and high heels proved to be her downfall with emphasis on fall.

          Karma–it’s a thing.

          Reply
    3. DJG, Reality Czar

      Speaking of problems of medical care and surgeries, in the wake of Luigi Mangione, I note this little dilemma for Nancy from the article about falling down the stairs in Luxembourg. (Depth perception becomes a problem with age, too.) >>
      From the article, “They said doctors were confident the damage could be repaired with a routine operation, but it was not yet clear whether that would be done in Luxembourg or in the United States.”

      I suppose she’s checking with Blue of California to see if the country of Luxembourg is in-network.

      She’d be a fool to risk a trans-Atlantic crossing at her age with such an injury. The question is how much the Luxembourg health-care system would charge her. Not much. Ironies.

      Another irony: I checked her bio on Wikipedia. Nancy Pelosi has never worked in private industry, not as a factory manager, not as a clothing buyer, not even as a personal shopper. Yet she’s worth something like 100 million quatloos.

      From her Wiki bio: “As of 2021, Pelosi’s net worth was valued at $120 million, making her the 6th richest person in Congress. According to journalist Glenn Greenwald, the Pelosis have traded $33 million worth of tech stocks over the past two years, including Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, and Google stocks.[397]”

      At least, she’ll have a nice funeral.

      Reply
      1. mrsyk

        Oh, the benefits to insider trading! I like this quote from David Axelrod and Hannah Welsh’s Politician Trading: If You Can’t Stop Them, Join Them,
        In 2012, Congress passed the STOCK Act, which prohibits U.S. senators and representatives from trading on information they learn in their official capacities and requires frequent financial disclosures. But the STOCK Act has its fair share of issues. The reporting requirements allow weeks to pass before members of Congress must publicly disclose securities transactions, compliance with the act has been difficult to discern, and enforcement has been seemingly nonexistent. Indeed, no charges have ever been brought against a senator or representative under the act.

        Reply
      1. Verifyfirst

        I am confident Air Force One (or at least Two) will whisk her back to Walter Reed if that’s what she wants. I’m not sure why every time I hear her name, I think of the song “Ebony and Ivory” but with new words…..”Ignorance and Arrogance, working together in perfect harmony…..”. Maybe that is not fair to the song.

        Reply
    4. IM Doc

      It was four years ago during the Floyd – African garb wearing – kneeling episode in the Capitol – that I looked to my wife and said – “It will not be long before she breaks a hip”. There are two different footages of that day – one during the actual taking the knee – and the far more difficult to find – but present – of her getting back on her feet and having to be helped by staffers.

      This is not any kind of special knowledge on my part – it was literally how doctors were trained once upon a time. In Medicare age women with an adequate level of fitness and maintained frame – you can tell fairly quickly what their level of hip fracture risk is. You have the patient take a knee and then watch them carefully as they get back up. If they immediately spring up – they are good – some of them begin to rock and get momentum and then launch up ( moderate risk of hip fracture) and some just cannot do it at all – they are stuck – ( severely elevated risk). In simple English – weakened abdominal and pelvic core causes the hips to be held in a very unfortunate manner – and at some point they will torque and break. We would then order PT and/or teach the exercises yourself. Then they would get sent to the senior center to continue to work on this. And I follow up on it. And even unto this day – women, and men, respond to this – and many successes are seen. And they are not pumped full of osteoporosis meds and all the hideous problems that go along with them.

      Hip fractures come from weakened bones but that is a small part of the problem no matter the fact that this is the ONLY thing that “matters” now. Lots of expensive tests and meds for osteoporosis can be prescribed, and these are very easy to tabulate in utilization databases in the EMR – and therefore that is the physician bonus structure. THE FAR MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE is abdominal and pelvic core fitness – and the kneel test is perfect to evaluate it. There are no meds, tests or labs for this – nor is there lots of money. It is the patient doing a physical activity and the doctor carefully monitoring them. It is a matter of being taken care of by someone who is not practicing medicine to fill in bubbles on a test sheet – but someone who is there for your health.

      Since the advent of Obamacare and EHR – the entire manner of these Medicare wellness visits has changed. I am told by MBA types – do not touch the patients – this is not an exam – this is only an interview to monitor deficiencies. The “deficiencies” are of course all very costly tests, labs, vaccines, etc. Nothing about core strength, mental health or important things in life. We fill in bubbles on computer screens. And corporately and individually get bonuses. Actual medical prevention means nothing. The items that are monitored almost to the one are things that bring in shekels. Vaccines, colonoscopies, mammograms, bone density studies, etc. Long gone are mental health, physical health as I describe above, etc. There is no money in it. And so what occurs are simple important things never get done. And I hate to say this – these examinations are NOT EVEN BEING TAUGHT ANYMORE. The thirtysomethings I have in the room during Medical Wellness visits look at me with horror – “You actually examine the patient? That is against the rules”. “This is just supposed to be an interview – what are you doing?” “We were told never to do these things – we will be reprimanded”. Again, generations of acquired wisdom in dealing with elderly health are just gone…..dust in the wind.

      It is all about money.

      If I had been Pelosi’s physician four years ago and had seen that video – I would have immediately started her on a program. It is very likely that Pelosi’s physician would not have recognized what they are seeing at all. And this is a core problem in my profession with regard to patient health. You cannot just turn on a switch. These young doctors are not even being taught these things at this point. It will take generations to fix, if it can be fixed at all.

      Reply
      1. Bazarov

        My grandmother suffered horrible falls and the inevitable hip fracture.

        Doctors told her to do all sorts of things, including exercises, and while she sometimes adhered to or even exceeded the regimen (her best health and mobility was when she had a handsome personal trainer), she just as often ignored or discontinued her doctor’s orders.

        It’s highly probable that Pelosi’s fancy doctors advised her to be careful and to do some of the things you describe, but she couldn’t be bothered. Before I moved recently, I had an excellent doctor, one with whom I developed a report. She candidly told me that patient adherence, even when warned that resistance will result in severe or life-threatening consequences, to prescribed therapies is very sketchy–diabetics who eat terribly, people with scary infections who cease their antibiotics after three days, etc.–and that she encountered the most resistance when suggesting any form of regular exercise, though exercise would be the most effective and least costly of any therapy!

        My guess is that *no one* tells Pelosi what to do, especially not some sniveling doctor she regards as little better than a servant.

        Reply
    5. timbers

      Hope Nancy has United as her Healthcare provider! (Of course she doesn’t. As the sign reads as you cross the boarder from Massachusetts into Vermont “Give us the same Healthcare Congress has”).

      Reply
  2. vao

    Flu EXPLOSION: Shocking one in four adults who are sick have flu – double last year’s rate… as terrifying ‘quad-demic’ surge engulfs Britain hospitalising thousands

    I am very surprised about the absence of an accompanying comment of the kind “What could have caused the population to become more vulnerable to respiratory infections? ‘Tis a mystery!”

    All the more so since, as the article states:

    To add to the NHS’s woes, serious cases of both norovirus and RSV are also on the rise.

    Truly, why have people become so much more susceptible for respiratory infections in the past couple of years? ‘Tis a mystery!

    But there is something that is thoroughly depressing:

    children aged five to 14 who had a rate of 30 per cent, the highest of any group

    The past half-decade has seen TPTB openly and mercilessly sacrificing the young generation — whether by refusing to take measures to protect it from Covid, letting it be slaughtered in Gaza and taking away the little support it received from the UNRWA, reducing the usage of well-known, life-saving vaccines (or screwing up vaccines, e.g. polio). In this forum it was asserted that TPTB are actually carrying out a eugenic plan; I am still unsure whether it is a deliberate approach or just instinctive actions, both resulting from a fundamentally warped mentality, but there sure is something eugenicist in what is taking place nowadays.

    Reply
    1. divadab

      The COVID pandemic was an operation. Against us. A horrendous crime and so far none of the criminals has been held accountable. It seems to me the only solution for me and my family going forward is to go full Amish. Disengage totally from the satanic matrix.

      Reply
  3. JohnA

    Re Polluting shipwrecks are the ticking time-bomb at the bottom of our oceans

    One big problem with polluting shipwrecks dating from WW2 and 1, are that many are classified as war graves and therefore out of bounds for salvage and clean up operations. One classic example is the German heavy cruiser Blücher, that was sunk in Oslofjord as it approached Oslo during the German invasion of Norway in April 1940. Over 1,000 German sailors went down with the ship. Now the wreck is a source of significant pollution with the leaking of oil and diesel etc., as it rusts and disintegrates. At what point should environment concerns outweigh human sorrow and respect for the dead?

    Reply
    1. Wukchumni

      War graves desecrated in Davy Jones Locker become an issue that gets disregarded when that ugly 6 letter word shows its face, profit über alles!

      The aforementioned Blücher is a candidate~

      Low-background steel, also known as pre-war steel and pre-atomic steel, is any steel produced prior to the detonation of the first nuclear bombs in the 1940s and 1950s. Typically sourced from ships (either as part of regular scrapping or shipwrecks) and other steel artifacts of this era, it is often used for modern particle detectors because more modern steel is contaminated with traces of nuclear fallout.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-background_steel

      Reply
    2. griffen

      A watery grave site for over 600 servicemen, the USS Houston was sunk late February of 1942. There is quite the tale of survival for those who lived through the actual hell as POW until 1945.

      A now deceased distant uncle, younger brother to a grandparent, was on the ship when it was destroyed and sunk and survived the aforementioned horrid conditions. He finally returned to the US and his family home in eastern Tennessee afterwards, and said that a bowl of rice would just never look the same again.

      https://www.history.navy.mil/news-and-events/news/2014/ww-ii-cruiser-uss-houston–ca-30–final-report-completed.html

      Reply
  4. AG

    Was there a NC assessment of Rosneft’s report on how they see climate change?

    In case it matters, here the download link:

    XVII VERONA EURASIAN
    ECONOMIC FORUM

    REPORT BY IGOR SECHIN, Chief Executive Officer, Rosneft Oil Company

    FAREWELL TO ILLUSIONS
    The energy world is in a Thucydides trap

    Dec. 5/6 2024

    https://limited.rosneft.com/upload/site2/attach/0/22/11/pdf_05122024_1_en.pdf

    Or via the Rosneft site with a summary.
    On the bottom 2 links:
    The above report AND the visuals which are in a separate document:
    https://limited.rosneft.com/press/news/item/221353/

    Reply
  5. The Rev Kev

    “Macron appoints centrist ally François Bayrou as France’s fourth prime minister in 2024”

    Called it. Said that Macron would choose a centrist and loyalist and here we are. To try to make his government more stable, he is trying to split the leftist coalition and recruiting SINOs to help support him – Socialists In Name Only. And they have their own demands-

    ‘Socialists quickly posed conditions for not supporting a no-confidence motion in an open letter to Bayrou. He must agree not to ram laws through without a parliamentary vote and not to rely on support from the far right, the party’s board said.’

    But what happens if Macron needs Marine le Penn’s votes down the track?

    Reply
  6. Frank Little

    “Meet the Snowy Owl”

    Is this an AI/manipulated video test? The woman’s clothing and her scale to the owl is constantly changing. The Snowy apparently grows up to 27 inches in size – how tall is the woman?

    Reply
      1. mrsyk

        Had the same thought, the woman may be of small stature. Looking closely at when the owl nuzzles (heart!) her collar, it appears real. I want to believe this one. What a magnificent creature.

        Reply
        1. Polar Socialist

          I think there are supposed to be three (artificial) women in the video. The only place Snowy Owls can ever be seen in Chinese mountains is a tiny corner of the Altai mountains right on the border with Russia.

          And honestly, the (artificial) scenery looks more like the Russian/Kazakhstan side of the mountains, not the southern slopes. Or Sichuan, but that would be way, way south of Snowy Owl’s range.

          Reply
    1. YuShan

      That video is very well done. It looks convincing if I didn’t know any better. I’ve seen a snowy owl in the wild while hiking in arctic Sweden. It’s a majestic bird, but it’s nowhere near that size. But they are stunning enough as they are!

      Reply
      1. ilpalazzo

        I’ve had a close sighting of an owl a few times and the most striking thing is they are absolutely noiseless. You see this quite big shape moving fast through the air and there is zero sound. It’s quite a perceptive dissonance.

        Reply
        1. mrsyk

          Yes, that’s a thing. Uncovering the secrets behind the silent flight of owls, Science Digest, January 23, 2024.
          Owls produce negligible noise while flying. While many studies have linked the micro-fringes in owl wings to their silent flight, the exact mechanisms have been unclear. Now, a team of researchers has uncovered the effects of these micro-fringes on the sound and aerodynamic performance of owl wings through computational fluid dynamic simulations.

          Reply
    2. Lee

      If she were supporting the weight and talon grip of that owl as pictured without a protective gauntlet her sweet little hands would be bleeding profusely.

      Reply
    3. matt

      yeah, i clocked that as ai just from the thumbnail. looking at the way her hands move also points to the video being ai. it also just looks weirdly smooth in the way ai generated videos tend to look.

      Reply
    4. Chet G

      It looks fake to me too. For comparison, I took photos of owls being banded at Centre Wildlife Care, with the first and final four photos being of a snowy. The people holding the snowy are all average height (for size comparison). The snowy was released a few months later.

      Reply
      1. Luckless Pedestrian

        Thank you for the pix. We hear screech owls all the time but never see them. I had no idea they were so petite!

        Reply
  7. MaureenO

    “Biden commutes sentence of Luzerne County kids-for-cash scandal judge Conahan ”

    This has me so angry!!! What is wrong with Biden and the Democrats???!!! The only thiing I can thing of is that so many people have dirt on them. Just absolutist heartbreaking…

    Reply
    1. Ann Uumelmahaye

      At this point, I can only conclude that the Democrats are simply complicit in making their own brand look detestable.

      I’m sure you’re right about many people being aware of their dirt, but how can the Dems’ private activities look much worse than public actions like this one? It’s so brazen, like the Nast cartoon of Boss Tweed: “Try and stop me!”

      This is why all their constant denials of populist reasons for their electoral thrashing look so fake to me. We’re supposed to believe that they ‘just don’t get it’? Still? In 2024?

      Reply
  8. Wukchumni

    A friend in San Diego was riding his bike down by Black’s Beach and filmed a hillside coming down over a period of about 10 minutes, and its remarkable that he uttered not 1 swear word the whole time. It’s up to 14 million views now…

    That Snowy Owl video is pretty fake, how much longer before AI can replicate this, so you wouldn’t be able to tell fake from real take?

    Torrey Pines landslide, ends with a boom

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0TjcmNsjPE

    Reply
    1. katiebird

      His camera work made me a little seasick. I wish he had unzoomed and switched to recording horizontally. I wanted to see it all but just couldn’t take it.

      Reply
    2. matt

      i’ve been using ai since i was 14, which is like 1/3 of my lifespan. so i get to say i grew up with ai. consequentially im decent at clocking it. and i generally struggle more with noticing if landscapes are ai or not rather than people. but generally what gets me is something about the lighting. it’s hard to put words to it, but ai lighting looks really specific. more high contrast, like its out of a stock photo. like it was exclusively trained on images pre-edited too add contrast and therefore clarity. i think this comes about from how a lot of ai models are trained on stock photos. i do think interesting results could come about by training ais on more real life data. dont know if someone has done this already, but attaching cameras to people and using all the data coming in to train ais. that might result in some progress. but as of right now, an ai version of that video would probably end up being more high contrast than the real version.

      Reply
  9. YuShan

    “ECB cuts rates again and keeps door open to further cuts”

    It shows you how dishonest these people are. When a few years ago they thought inflation was “too low” (it was 1.0 – 1.8%! Still losing purchasing power), they introduced deeply negative interest rates and a “symmetrical” inflation target, meaning that inflation was allowed to run a bit higher to make up for “low” inflation in the past.

    Well, inflation went completely out of control, destroying the financial well being of the majority of the non-rich population.

    So, if they were honestly sticking to their “symmetrical target” pledge, they would now be running a much more restricted monetary policy, and aim to cause some CPI DEflation for a while to enable household incomes and savings on the non-rich to partly regain what was lost due to their policy errors.

    Even though the ECB has only ONE mandate (low inflation), they have destroyed the currency. Around 2010 the euro was still around 1.50 against the US$. Right now it’s 1.05.

    Many of the actions they did, like QE, directly funding governments and buying corporate debt (at negative rates, literally handing out free money to them, at the expense of the population who need to deal with the inflationary effects) were illegal per euro treaties, but nobody is holding them to account.

    Reply
  10. The Rev Kev

    “Turkish-backed fighters accused of executing Kurdish soldiers in hospital”

    Par for the course in that part of the world and they could have done worse. That article did mention this-

    ‘A ceasefire in Manbij mediated by the US was announced on Wednesday morning after it fell to the SNA, although small clashes are reportedly still taking place.’

    That was a result of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and afterwards they shook hands for the camera. But over a coffee today I realized what I saw. The representative of an agreement-incapable nation shaking hands with a country that always betrays their partners and allies. So how long will that agreement last?

    Reply
    1. ChrisFromGA

      Not very long. Today’s Military Summary Channel video claims that Erdogan is going to annex Aleppo and Idlib and make them part of Turkey. Blinken is gone in 36 days or so, anyways. So Erdogan can cancel any agreement with him as “null and void” due to personnel change.

      Reply
      1. ChrisFromGA

        https://youtu.be/w2wocyrPoFE?t=658

        (Dima makes the claim about 11 mins in to the video)

        PS – Damascus and Raqqa, too. Combine that with kicking the Kurds out of the east, and that’s a nice little payback for Sykes-Picot. Maybe the Chosen get the Golan Heights.

        Cartographers better start getting ready to make Turkey great again!

        Reply
        1. Polar Socialist

          Call me a cynic, but I do believe the Gulf states have enough money to make the HTS and SNA suddenly remember what Syrian patriots they are and how they have to work with their Arab brothers against the neo-Ottoman imperialism.

          It’s not like changing loyalty, agenda and identity is a new thing for these groups. And frankly, Erdogan just hinted offhandedly that those areas uses to belong to Turkiyet. It’s still a long way from annexing them and may require the civil war to break out again.

          Reply
      2. Martin Oline

        Gee, two militarist, expansionist, untrustworthy countries meeting at Damascus. I wonder what will happen? I read the History of the Ottoman Empire a couple years ago. The history of Israel is yet to be written but I suspect the end is near. It couldn’t happen to a better group of people. I guess I am going to have buy some more popcorn.

        Reply
  11. schmoe

    I wasn’t able to log in yesterday but am posting this re: Ukraine fatalities since I deem him a fairly unbiased source and not prone to the hyperbole that infects both sides:
    https://x.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1864883422730104988

    “My current research estimates of Russia-Ukraine war casualties: Ukrainian forces: about 140,000 killed & 560,000 wounded based on US & Ukrainian admissions. Russian forces: at least 85,000 killed & 340,000 wounded based on identification by name by BBC. Donbas separatists: about 25,000 killed & 100,000 wounded based on BBC Russian estimate from obituaries and messages about search for missing. The numbers of wounded are estimated based on 4 to 1 wounded to killed ratio.”

    Reply
    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I hate to tell you but this isn’t credible. Kills and wounded in action are strongly correlated with the level of artillery shelling. Russia has been out-shelling Ukraine by over 5 to 1, and many estimate 8 to 10 to 1, for a very long time.

      Reply
      1. schmoe

        A few additional factors:
        1) Russian artillery is considered less accurate and Ukrainians had a certain amount of Excalibur shells that were very accurate unless electronic warfare interfered with their guidance. In 2023 Russian troops were advised not to shelter together because they would likely be taken out by a single shell.
        2) There is ample footage of Ukrainian trenches surrounded by Russian artillery misses that look like the surface of the moon.
        3) Russian force took heavy losses from drones trying to cross open fields at Ugledar (sp?), among other locations.
        4) Russian forces have generally been on the offensive and not hidden in bunkers or basements like Ukrainian forces defending Chasov Yar and other cities. ‘Ukraine surely took very heavy losses on the genius decision to seize a few apple orchards in Kursk.
        5) I would take HIMARs v. TOS weapons if I could choose.

        On the other hand, Russia is now making effective use of FAB bombs and when Russian forces face overwhelming odds or a poor risk/reward such as the Liman area in 2002 and the right bank of the Dnepier in August 2022, they retreat.

        Reply
        1. Yves Smith Post author

          I do pay attention and have heard nothing along those lines, plus the West likes to denigrate everything Russian as inferior, so I would like to see sources. Alex Vershinin, in his July 2022 Royal United Services piece on the Return of Industrial Warfare, took Russian artillery to be on a par with Western. And many of the shells NATO members hauled out of mothballs and sent to Ukraine were reported to be duds. See this NYT headline: In Rush to Arm Ukraine, Weapons Are Bought but Not Delivered, or Too Broken to Use

          I believe it was CBS News that reported in a documentary, then was bullied into excising this section, that 30% of the weapons sent to Ukraine were sold on the black market.

          Ukraine’s bunkers are also reported to be inferior to Russia’s.

          Reply
    2. Polar Socialist

      I don’t know who’s counting the Ukrainian obituaries, but the current count is claimed to be a tad over 550,000. It’s presumed to be missing 2-3 months worth of casualties, as reportedly Ukrainian units can and do delay informing to families and relatives.

      In the numbers you quoted, are the Wagner casualties part of Russian casualties? As they were not part of the Russian forces.

      Also, based on the news reports, it’s very likely that the two sides don’t have the same wounded to killed ratio, as Russians have much capable military medicine.

      Reply
      1. schmoe

        I should have said “person” v. “source”, but as a Ukrainian he can easily assess any publicly available information and likely retains contacts there.
        He is a frequent guest on the Neutrality Studies webcast and my comment on credibility derives from each side having vehement cheerleaders whose past predictions of imminent collapse for the other side affords them – at least IMHO – little credibility other than to describe the general contours of the conflict.

        Reply
  12. upstater

    Re. Ontario threatens to cut off US’s power over Trump tariff row

    This is stupid bloviating by the over-fed Doug Ford. Only an idiot or liar would claim he could pull the plug like an extension cord. Ontario is closely tied with the eastern interconnection. While there certainly are imports from Ontario to New York and Michigan, there are exports going the other way. More specifically, the interconnected network allows much more stability and control which has great benefit to Ontario.

    Quebec is a different story; it is its own grid (like Texas) and has DC connections to the northeast. They could pull the plug and sacrifice billions in revenue.

    Reply
      1. Es s Ce Tera

        His brother Rob Ford is the one who admitted to being a crack addict. However, in their younger days, before they became politicians, both Doug and his brother Rob were widely known hash dealers. And while Doug was always the “clean” one, the older brother, these days he’s certainly looking like he’s on something again.

        Reply
    1. Es s Ce Tera

      First, I think Rob and Doug Ford provided the populist model which has been used by Trump to great success. This is the model of the ugly, overweight, bad hair, scrappy, blatantly imperfect in every way, honestly dishonest, person who speaks incoherent everydayspeak, the language of the masses.

      Given this, and given Doug is conservative, you’d think Doug and Trump would be best buds, right?

      But I think what’s going on here is both Ford and Trump are xenophobes and isolationist, it’s the one thing they both campaign on, and the US and Canada entering a tariff war is an excellent path toward isolation. We should be picking up on why sleepy drugged-out-of-his-gourd-with-his-glazed-over-eyes Doug, who is all about the politicians profiting from secret real estate deals, all of a sudden likes this story, has latched onto it, become animated and excited by the prospect.

      I do think he would pull the plug, would LOVE to have a reason to. This is a gift from Trump to Ford.

      Reply
  13. mrsyk

    Rising wood fuel consumption shows limits of energy transition JKempEnergy, the heart of it;

    “Continued growth in consumption of wood fuels illustrates that the energy transition has so far been characterised by the addition of new forms of energy rather than the replacement or substitution of older ones.”

    Besides tying growing consumption to rising populations in developing regions, the article points out;

    “Countries in Northwest Europe and Northeast Asia are burning increasing volumes of wood, including in pellet form, to generate electricity.”
    Pellets and other wood fuel have become popular with generators because policymakers have characterised them as a renewable fuel with low net emissions, ensuring favourable regulatory treatment, provided they meet standards for sustainable forest management.”

    A cursory search for Wood Pellets and Old Growth Forests produced these headlines
    Europe Is Sacrificing Its Ancient Forests for Energy, NYT, 2022
    BBC Reveals Drax Logging Old-Growth Forests for Biomass, BBC, 2022
    The U.K. Is Burning Canadian Forests for Fuel, NRDC, 2024
    B.C.’s old-growth protections come under renewed scrutiny, CBC, 2024
    Impacts of Wood Pellets In the US, Dogwood Alliance, undated, post 2018, link provided, quote;

    “In North Carolina, the epicenter of the biomass industry, the state has lost 120,000 acres of bottomland hardwood to logging.” So, about that flooding. Clearcutting watersheds is a known recipe for disaster in regards to excess water management.”

    Lots of good detail in the dogwood alliance piece.

    Reply
    1. Wukchumni

      I read A Forest Journey: The Role of Trees in the Fate of Civilization by John Perlin, a couple years ago and can’t recommend it enough…

      Civilizations that burn through their wood resources aren’t long for the world…

      Trees have been the principal fuel and building material of every society over the millennia, from the time hunters and gatherers first settled until the middle of the nineteenth century. Without vast supplies of wood from forests, the great civilizations of the world would have never emerged. Wood’s abundance or scarcity greatly shaped the culture, demographics, economies, internal and external politics, and technology of successive societies over the millennia.

      Originally published in 1986 and updated in 2005, A Forest Journey’s comprehensive coverage of the major role forests have played in human life—told with grace, fluency, imagination, and humor—gained it recognition as a Harvard Classic in Science and World History and as one of Harvard’s “One Hundred Great Books.” This is a foundational conservation story that should not be lost in the archives. This updated and expanded edition emphasizes the importance of forests in the fight against climate chaos and the urgency to protect what remains of the great trees and forests of the world.

      Reply
      1. Steve H.

        The image I remember from the book was the map with the port/bay that was miles from where it had been, due to siltation from the trees upstream being cut & floated downstream. Erosion ensues.

        Wood is such an amazing material, foolish to just burn it. Of course, the same could be said for oil. See Epimetheus.

        Reply
      2. MT_Wild

        It’s a question of which trees and where.

        Hate to see any bottomland hardwood cut, but what do we do out west with miles and miles of overstocked, single-age stands?

        I worked a fire in a sub alpine fir forest in Wyoming this summer. My guess was that 70% of the biomass was either standing dead, or downed heavy fuels. Miles and miles of it in every direction. If a fire gets the right alignment in those fuels it would make the yellowstone fires seem like prescribe burns.

        At the same time the scale of the issue is enormous and outside of any conceivable budget. I recently heard a credible analysis that CA would need to treat a million acres a year for the next 20 years to get on track back to manageable fuel loads. At $2,000 an acre it’s not happening in CA or anywhere else.

        All those folks flocking to quaint mountain towns will be smoke refugees in short order.

        Reply
        1. Wukchumni

          All those folks flocking to quaint mountain towns will be smoke refugees in short order.

          Luckily for yours truly, there’s only maybe another 50% more of Sequoia NP left to burn, below timberline.

          Agree with you on out west forests, its ridiculous the buildup and number of trees per acre as opposed to before we done showed up., not to mention the tremendous understory of duff and decaying branch offices, its tantamount to the worst hoarder’s home you can imagine, chock full of nothing really.

          Reply
          1. MT_Wild

            The ecologist’s curse is being able to stand on a mountaintop and look out at forests and streams in every direction while feeling nothing but despair.

            It passes quickly though. And then I’m back to “At least it’s here now.”

            Reply
        2. mrsyk

          miles and miles of overstocked, single-age stands? Am I right guessing that this is the result of “sustainable” timber harvesting practices?

          Reply
          1. MT_Wild

            Doubt any of what I was looking at in WY ever saw much large-scale continuous commercial harvest. The wrong trees in the wrong spot for industry.

            Commercial replantings will be single-age stands (at least here in NA), but they won’t be overstocked.

            A better guess for the source of the problem would be 100 or more years of fire-suppression, disease, pests, and climate change.

            None of those are independent variables, as they all have higher order interactions.

            Reply
  14. The Rev Kev

    “NATO must shift to wartime mindset, secretary general warns”

    Sky News, along with other publications, is giving cover for Rutte here. He says that he wants banks and pension funds to invest in the MIC which is mentioned in this article-

    ‘Mr Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister, called on NATO members to “stop creating barriers between each other and between industries, banks and pension funds”.’

    But what is not mentioned is how he wants cuts in pensions, healthcare and social security systems so the money saved can be given to NATO because otherwise Putin will occupy Brussels.

    ‘He urged the audience to tell their governments that “security matters more than anything” and that they “accept to make sacrifices today so that we can stay safe tomorrow.”’

    I am going to say right now that cutting pensions, healthcare and social security systems is the plan all along and this dash for cash is just an excuse to be able to do it. Money given to plebs is just wasted when otherwise it might be given to corporations who would be sure to show their gratitude (ka-ching!).

    https://www.rt.com/news/609272-rutte-nato-spending-welfare/

    Reply
    1. CA

      “NATO must shift to wartime mindset, secretary general warns”

      The matter that has become evident, is that NATO, along with the European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen, is becoming increasingly authoritarian, increasingly incompatible with national democracies. VDL should be quite frightening to European democrats, and surprisingly to me she has support all through European governments. I wish I could find a decent sociological analysis, but then look to the autocratic ways in which German Green leaders such as Annaleena Baerbock develop policy echoing the EC and NATO (since Baerbock is Foreign Minister).

      Reply
    2. Polar Socialist

      I don’t understand why, since Sweden and Finland joining NATO was such a big strategic defeat for Russia, Russia is losing the war in Ukraine and anyway about to collapse economically very soon.

      Russia surely can’t be the threat NATO must prepare for. Otherwise people would start to think that NATO expansion diminished the European security and thus was a completely wrong move and should be corrected.

      Reply
    3. ilsm

      Does Rutte work for Lockheed?

      NATO F-35’s can be dumbed down so maybe they don’t need a new engine.

      Wjhy would Putin want to go to Brussels?

      Reply
    4. Victor Sciamarelli

      “NATO must shift to wartime mindset, secretary general warns”
      A crucial reason for the existence of NATO, with the US in charge, has been to prevent Europeans from fighting each other because without a US presence the Europeans will likely revert to type as their history demonstrates. For example, the triple entente was allies GB, France, and Russia balanced against Germany and Austria.
      If you’ve ever seen one of these time lapse graphics of European boundaries as they changed over the centuries, their borders seem to change every month during the previous millenium. All of this froze when the US took control in 1945 along with the Soviets, of course; little has changed since 1945.
      If the Europeans are going to provide their own security under Supreme Leader Trump we should pay attention how power shifts because Russia will be back in Europe and European ambitions revived.

      Reply
      1. Polar Socialist

        Russia is in Europe; it’s the largest and most populous country in Europe.

        As history tells us, the very reason for founding NATO was to keep the European conflict burning on. And it seems to be working well!

        Reply
  15. ChatET

    About “The Drones over New Jersey” I saw a video that had D@vid Petrayus describing a system that was designed to be an electronic concentration camp. He was trying to sell it to Israel to solve their Palestinian “problem”. He described it as using drones along with AI to minimize the number of guards to monitor a population. The drones over NJ exhibit electronic warfare technology. Stories of people’s drones being disabled, phone cameras exhibiting strange behavior. They could be scanning phones which would be an interesting experiment to identify the attacks on privacy. Perhaps the drones being experienced now are training the AI for the electronic concentration camps to be funded by the US and perpetuated on the Palestinians by the IDF. Anyway just an interesting thought that connects the dots.

    Reply
  16. Wukchumni

    In the spirit of automobile manufacturers making it seem as if everybody gives each others new cars for Xmas on TV commercials, maybe the Decembris Movement needs something similar, with the citizenry giving each other new governments, some wrapped in a festive bow.

    The odds are good, even if the goods are odd:

    Over/Under line on the Ukraine going under: 12 days

    Reply
    1. Louis Fyne

      because car sales hit a seasonal bottom around this time of year (every year), given that peeps are too busy spending on Xmas (and year end bonuses, tax refunds don’t hit until late January – March).

      So adverts come to the rescue, making one look like a poor chump if he doesn’t buy a car wrapped in a boe tie for wifey.

      Reply
    2. Katniss Everdeen

      “In the spirit of automobile manufacturers making it seem as if everybody gives each others new cars for Xmas…”

      Damn, I’m glad I’m not the only one who finds that advertising beyond infuriating. I mean WTAF?

      Reply
  17. Captain Obvious

    Swedish minister open to new measures to tackle energy crisis, blames German nuclear phase-out Euractiv

    Germans did nothing wrong, they were just following orders. It’s all the fault of Russians, and the Putin destroying power plants. /s

    Reply
  18. CA

    China is repeatedly criticized by Western economists for investing too much. The fierce criticism has continued even as Chinese per capita growth has been far faster than any G-7 country. But beside dismissing the emphasis on long run growth described by Robert Solow, why not look at what China has been getting, say, for this year’s $150 billion investment in water conservancy:

    https://english.news.cn/20241213/c20b2f6df2f64140884f45275188f04d/c.html

    December 13, 2024

    China’s reservoirs see increased total storage capacity since 2000

    NANJING — China’s reservoirs have witnessed a total increase in storage capacity of approximately 470 billion cubic meters, or 90.8 percent, since the year 2000.

    The results * ** were published in a research article in Science Bulletin, noting that the reservoirs have significantly enhanced the available freshwater resources for drinking water.

    The study found that there were 2,670 lakes and 5,156 reservoirs each with an area of more than one square kilometer nationwide.

    Since 2000, the major water conservancy infrastructure projects have significantly promoted the available freshwater resources in lakes and reservoirs, enhancing the safety of drinking-water sources.

    The levels of nitrogen-phosphorus nutrients and biochemical oxygen demand have notably decreased, according to the study, while the apparent rise of dissolved oxygen indicates a continuous improvement in the water quality of lakes and reservoirs.

    From 2016 to 2023, the percentage of lakes and reservoirs categorized as centralized drinking water sources has increased consistently, the research article noted. This progress has enabled 561.4 million urban residents to access improved drinking-water sources in 2022, compared to 303.4 million in 2004.

    In addition, algal blooms have been markedly alleviated across the country over the past four years….

    * https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2095927324004432

    ** https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022169424016925

    Reply
    1. CA

      https://english.news.cn/20241213/eaf40f784db149c39f0788afb3dab932/c.html

      December 13, 2024

      China’s mega water diversion project transforms lives, boosts development

      BEIJING — Contrary to the Chinese adage, “distant water cannot quench present thirst,” China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project has proven that delivering distant water is not only possible but also effective.

      The largest of its kind in the world, this mega water diversion project transports water over long distances from the country’s water-rich south to its northern regions, where hundreds of millions of people once faced “absolute water scarcity” as defined by United Nations standards.

      The conceptual development of this project began in the 1950s, with the first phases of its middle and eastern routes becoming operational in late 2014.

      During the past decade, it has diverted more than 76.7 billion cubic meters of water to the country’s northern regions, providing a stable water supply to 45 major cities and more than 185 million people, according to data from the Ministry of Water Resources.

      The project has improved China’s water resource distribution, generating growing economic, social and ecological benefits, Vice Minister of Water Resources Wang Daoxi told a press conference on Thursday.

      Designed with three routes, the project stretches across four of China’s major river basins, namely, the Yangtze, Huaihe, Yellow and Haihe.

      The middle route, the most prominent of the three as it supplies water to the Chinese capital Beijing, begins at the Danjiangkou Reservoir in central Hubei Province.

      Most of Beijing’s drinking water travels over 1,000 kilometers along the middle route from Danjiangkou. The water flows north via canals and pipelines, crossing beneath the Yellow River before reaching the city’s water treatment plants. Today, nearly 80 percent of the water consumed in Beijing’s urban areas has made this 15-day journey from Danjiangkou…

      Reply
    1. mrsyk

      Color me unsurprised. I’m assuming the PTB would prefer to use censorship and narrative over creating a population of political prisoners, shots having now been fired over the bow of their luxury yachts, see Florida woman. Sorry Steve, but I’m guessing you didn’t actually believe you were getting a pardon.

      Reply
  19. mrsyk

    The Philip Pilkington thread should cause all to wonder whose calling the shots. “Biden this and Biden that”, lol, Joe Biden can hardly tie his shoes these days.

    Reply
      1. ilsm

        Thanks for that…..

        I observed to a friend during the past week that Arabs are as bad as us Irish in the memory of anger role.

        Reply
      2. DJG, Reality Czar

        YS:

        Pilkington’s point 11 seems to accord with the idea that it is now all grudges and resentments, regardless of consequences, because Joe has no plans for a long retirement polishing the Corvette:

        Philip Pilkington

        @philippilk

        11/ Biden himself has become a deeply cynical and sinister figure having discredited himself even within his own party by pardoning his own son.

        I wonder if Pilkington is being lyrical here, when it would be better to state flat out that Biden is madder than King Lear.

        Reply
  20. MichaelSD

    Ending the War in Ukr. I started at the end and found VVP’s original req’s. US continues to see RF as an invader. Why would they would want any of Europe is beyond me.

    “Any settlement of the war must therefore address the issue of the future security of both parties. That means that any third party attempting to mediate between the two must take seriously the security concerns of both belligerents. In particular, ignoring the concerns of the stronger party is very unlikely to result in successful war termination. Accepting this will require a considerable change in attitude from Western leaders. It is also a precept that many in the West will doubtless strongly resist. Overcoming this resistance may require some strong diplomacy and will involve taking steps that incite sharp criticism from some quarters. The potential benefits, however, far outweigh the risks.”

    Reply
  21. The Rev Kev

    ‘Jim Stewartson, Antifascist 🇺🇸🇺🇦🏴‍☠️
    @jimstewartson
    Piers Morgan asked Antichrist Peter Thiel what he would say to people who celebrated Luigi Mangione — who was a fan of Peter Thiel and Elon Musk — murdering an insurance CEO.’

    Dude! What the hell is happening with Peter Thiel? Is he having some sort of malfunction or something? He looks like an alien from Star Trek Voyager here. If this is the result of injecting young people’s blood for the purpose of rejuvenation, then that is not a recommendation for this course of treatment. He looks like hell.

    Reply
    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Well, he’s 57. I guess he prefers to look like a weird under-50-year-old than his age.

      Could also be Botox. IM Doc on that:

      I would guess in the entire USA, there are 10-15 maybe 20 plastic surgeons that are artists – sculptors. They do just amazing things. These surgeons are just astronomically expensive. And this is where these stars go. This is a very demanding specialty…

      These people are artist like in their behavior – very eccentric and at times bizarre, they are often on the spectrum – and very difficult to deal with – but WOW do they get results – just amazing work. But it costs millions.

      The issue is the botox. Botox, the first few times or when used sparingly, is not quite as good as sculpting – but does amazing things. Accordingly, people use it way too often. The problem is that people quickly find out that used too often it makes the muscles very flabby. It then has to be used more often and before long we have entered a death spiral. After a while, Botox becomes largely or completely ineffective. Then because things are so flabby, fillers and other desperate measures have to be taken. And not even the very best surgeons can fix this.

      Botox is an addictive thing – and the botox face is unmistakeable. And once it finally collapses and not being repleted constantly, things become very desperate indeed….

      And you should see what they look like when they are 80 and out of the limelight. They do not even appear human..

      Reply
    2. Wukchumni

      Silicon is but a song we sing
      Fear’s the way we die
      You can make the warning bells ring
      Or make the angels cry
      Though Thiel looks harrowing
      And you may not know why

      Come on, people now
      Spy on your brother
      Everybody get together
      Try to surveil one another right now

      Some may come and some may go
      He will surely pass
      When the one that left us here
      Returns for us at last
      We are but a moment’s sunlight
      Fading in his grasp

      Come on, people now
      Spy on your brother
      Everybody get together
      Try to surveil one another right now

      If you hear the song I sing
      You will understand, listen
      You hold the key to all you fear
      All in your trembling hand
      Just one key unlocks them both
      It’s there at your command

      Come on, people now
      Spy on your brother
      Everybody get together
      Try to surveil one another right now

      Right Now
      Right Now

      Get Together, by the Youngbloods

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBJYxPN8qIA

      Reply
  22. The Rev Kev

    “Ending the War in Ukraine: Analysis and Recommendations”

    It’s an interesting paper but there are realities that would sabotage any peace negotiation. The Russophobia shown by several European states for example or how Russia has zero trust in any agreements with the west. The insistence of the neocons that only a Russian military defeat will satisfy them too. Unless those factors are taken into account, there will be no negotiated peace.

    Reply
    1. ilsm

      Presuming Trump wants to go Mackinder, that is grab the Eurasian land mass, an argument can be made to leave Ukraine for later and go to Iran…..

      That said Trump is as much into Mahan going for a replay of Plan Orange… over Taiwan.

      But that would be thinking like Xi.

      Reply
  23. RockHard

    OpenAI Whistleblower Suchir Balaji had written an essay considering whether Generative AI is Fair Use: https://suchir.net/fair_use.html

    My initial reaction was to consider him as kin to Aaron Swartz, but there’s no information on his background. Aaron was known to be depressed at the time and was much further along in the process and almost certainly facing prison time. Also, Suchir died a couple of weeks ago and this story is just now coming out.

    Reply
    1. matt

      interesting article. for me less the copyright stuff, more ai’s effect on the knowledge community.
      i’ve found chatgtp functions as a sort of ‘bonus office hours’ where instead of going to actual office hours, students just ask chatgtp for help. which i actually get. i’ve done it twice because its just easier time wise to have a little answer guy at your beck and call vs waking up early to go to 9am office hours across campus. especially when you start homeworks late. (oopsie.) but my point here is that people are relying on ai for answers instead of each other. which is uh, interesting, and im sure it will have some effects on the loneliness epidemic. i have friends who use chatgtp for therapy. and it’s like we’ve progressed from robust social networks –> paid therapsists –> cheaper online version of therapists. instead of again, relying on each other. because while chat gtp doesnt form social bonds, it is a hell of a lot easier. kinda breaks community ties, both on campus and i’d imagine in the workplace.

      whats also interesting is that chat gtp generally gives the same answers as textbooks. but i have professors who discourage use of chatgtp because they want us to learn how to read through the handbooks to solve problems. organized data management vs the answer being somewhere within the amorphous blob of knowledge. you know the answer is out there somewhere, you can either go to a specific knowledge base (textbook or professor) or again, amorphous blob of knowledge. it’s a lot easier to access the amorphous blob of knowledge. reading the textbook or knowing how to work with professors are skills that have to be developed. with chatgtp you can just go ‘reword please’ and it wont complain.

      Reply
    2. mrsyk

      From the Mercury News article;
      The medical examiner’s office determined the manner of death to be suicide and police officials this week said there is “currently, no evidence of foul play.”

      Information he held was expected to play a key part in lawsuits against the San Francisco-based company.

      Color me skeptical on that suicide. Mortality rates among “whistle blowers” is challenging Vietnam war era helicopter “Gunner-man” for urban legend status.
      A search for “vietnam helicopter gunner life expectancy” (no quotes) retuned;
      two weeks
      “Over 10% of Vietnam casualties were helicopter crew members, and most of those were the door gunners that protected the helicopter, its crew, and its transports, from their exposed position. The average lifespan of a door gunner on a Huey in Vietnam was just two weeks.”

      Reply
  24. flora

    Speaking of Dem B and the pardon racket… er… gifting, this somehow confirms what I’ve been thinking about the neolib, 3rd Way, DLC Dem crowd for a long time now.

    Clintons Open to Possible Preemptive Pardon as Deep State May Abandon Them

    Former President Bill Clinton has indicated he is open to discussing a “pre-emptive pardon” for his wife, Hillary Clinton, with outgoing head of state Joe Biden, while maintaining that she has done nothing wrong.
    This development was anticipated, according to Wall Street analyst Charles Ortel, who tells Sputnik that Bill Clinton is also likely to seek a pardon for himself and his daughter.
    ….
    The alleged fraud and pay-to-play activities involving the Clinton Foundation were significant issues, according to Ortel, who has been investigating the charity for many years.

    https://sputnikglobe.com/20241213/clintons-open-to-possible-preemptive-pardon-as-deep-state-may-abandon-them-1121159825.html

    It’s cornpop… er… popcorn time. / ;)

    Reply
    1. pjay

      I’m long past getting my hopes up that there will ever be any justice for these people, but it is a nice dream.

      A Biden pardon of the Clinton Crime Family would be a full circle moment. I remember Clinton’s pardon of Marc Rich on his way out the White House door in 2001. Rich was in the middle of the whole Middle East shell game going on in the 1990s, leading up to the full unleashing of the neocons a few years later. They’re still at it. I had just watched Aaron Good’s interview with Lawrence Wilkerson and Gary Volgler on Iraq, where they discuss the role of oil, Rich, and Israel. An informative interview that provides some important puzzle pieces:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_OcPC7MJok

      It’s been said here many times before, but the Clinton’s make Trump look like a third rate street thug by comparison.

      Reply
  25. The Rev Kev

    “Attacking Iran Would Be Insane”

    Another factor unmentioned is that Iran will not stand alone like Assad tried to do. Iran is in BRICS and both Russia and China will not let that country go down by itself. There has been Russian defensive equipment in Iran for months now and they are certainly integrated into Iranian defenses. Iran is a red line for Russia. And China is not about to let a main supplier of oil be taken away from them by the US and their allies. Trump was told nearly five years ago that the US could not take on Iran without it gong into a fight that might last a decade. As Iran has only gotten stronger and the west weaker, will Trump fall for it or will he try to make a bargain? I’m afraid we will have to wait and see just what Trump does as President.

    Reply
    1. Polar Socialist

      If I may be so blunt as to point out that this not how BRICS operates, or what it’s for. Russia, China and Iran can use BRICS mechanism to trade between each other outside of the West controlled systems, and that’s about it.

      Now, as to why China and Russia want to do that with Iran (trough BRICS) is because Iran has a relatively big role in their strategic thinking – even when they think differently from each other.

      That said, neither China or Russia really care who runs Iran and how, as long as Iran’s actions align somewhat along the interest of China or Russia. If Iran somehow turned to Zoroastrian Communist society, Russia and China would continue business as usual with it.

      Reply
      1. Yves Smith Post author

        *Sigh*

        Russia and China do not need BRICS to do bi-lateral trades outside the dollar with each other. They’ve been doing it since 2014:

        One of the biggest hopes for a breakthrough in the Sino-Russian reapprochement after the 2014 Ukraine crisis and the first round of Western sanctions was a currency swap opened between the Central Bank of Russia and the People’s Bank of China…

        The swap agreement between China and Russia falls in line with Beijing’s efforts to internationalize the Renminbi (RMB) in recent years. All in all, China has sealed 32 (!) swap deals since 2009.

        A currency swap agreement between Russia and China seemed to be a logical and useful idea for the development of bilateral trade. The value of the deal signed between China and Russia was comparatively big: 150 billion yuan…

        In 2014, the year the swap agreement between Russia and China was signed, the prospects for bilateral trade were quite bright. Moscow and Beijing aimed for $100 billion in bilateral trade in 2015 and wanted to double this amount by 2020.

        However, the swap deal could not help improve the bilateral trade due to the depreciation of the ruble, which affected trade between Moscow and Beijing.

        According to Chinese statistics, Sino-Russian trade turnover reached $88.4 billion in 2014, but then fell by almost 30 percent to $63.6 billion in 2015, and only slightly increased up to $69.5 billion in 2016.

        Despite disappointing trade statistics, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin, mutual payments in national currencies between China and Russia have increased since the swap deal was signed. But nevertheless, such payments are mostly dominated by the RMB as the Russian ruble is used in just 3 percent of mutual transactions.

        https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2017/04/why-a-russia-china-currency-swap-agreement-turned-out-to-be-a-damp-squib

        Having better electronic systems will not solve the problem that led to underwhelming results with the earlier attempt: currency volatility.

        Reply
        1. Polar Socialist

          Fun fact: first Sino-Russian trade agreement (Treaty of Nerchinsk) precedes US dollar over 100 years.

          Anyway, my point was the trilateral trade between the three instead of The Rev Kev’s defense alliance type of thinking. The strategic dimensions being the Belt and Road Initiative (China) and International North–South Transport Corridor (Russia) which both need Iran to play along.

          Reply
  26. Es s Ce Tera

    re: THREAD: The official narrative of how Luigi Mangione was apprehended doesn’t add up.

    I thought it was a McDonald’s customer who spotted Luigi and called the police? Ah well, impossible to know now that the media has muddled the waters so much that search engines are ineffective.

    Reply
  27. more news

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/12/14/7489063/

    Lithuanian athlete withdraws from World Championship over T-shirt with “Make Russia small again” inscription – media

    Körnelija Düdaitė, the Lithuanian national team representative in functional sports, has decided to withdraw from the World Championship currently taking place in Budapest (Hungary) due to a T-shirt with the inscription “Make Russia small again”.

    Reply
    1. Polar Socialist

      It seems the the athlete was disqualified by the organizers after refusing to remove “Make Russia small again” T-shirt. After the International organization backed the organizers, the Lithuanian federation asked all Lithuanian athletes to withdraw from the competition.

      Reply
  28. Roger Blakely

    RE: Flu EXPLOSION: Shocking one in four adults who are sick have flu – double last year’s rate… as terrifying ‘quad-demic’ surge engulfs Britain hospitalising thousands Daily Mail

    COVID-19’s SARS-CoV-2 seems to have some relationship to other viruses. In 2020 SARS-CoV-2 crowded out the regular flu virus. This holiday season’s COVID surge seems to be less than expected. Maybe that has something to do with the fact that this summer’s COVID surge was so much greater than expected. Maybe a lower prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 is allowing regular flu virus to surge.

    Reply
  29. mrsyk

    File this under “Questionable Decisions During a Pandemic”, or maybe “Yet Another Reason I Will Never Fly Again”.
    Flying pigs force unexpected landing for flight to Mexico
    This caught my eye;
    The airport operator said: “Meanwhile, the pigs — living high on the hog during their impromptu holiday stopover — are being cared for at a secure location on the island, with assistance from a government veterinarian.

    Reply

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