Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 Calculated Risk
Climate
World’s largest iceberg emerges from vortex, moving northward Anadolu Agency
The secret treasure trove still hidden in Africa’s forests Al Jazeera
Syndemics
CDC Wastewater Scan Shows H5 Detections In 11 States Avian Flu Diary
Bird flu causes deaths of cats and zoo animals as virus spreads in US FOX
China?
China’s manufacturing in next 20 years aims to be cheap, good and high-tech: Expert CGTN
China needs incentives to power a lean, grass-roots-official machine, economic leaders say South China Morning Post
China vows to crack down on illicit spycam recordings after rise in hotel room voyeurism cases Channel News Asia
India
Modi’s $6 Billion Submarine Plan Stalls Following Sea Tests Bloomberg
BJP’s attack on the American ‘deep state’ reflects growing global discourse Business Standard
The Koreas
Was South Korea’s coup an attempt to restart the Korean War? People’s Dispatch
K-pop, carols, free food at South Korea impeachment protests Channel News Asia
Syraqistan
HTS leader emphasizes need to evolve from ‘revolutionary mentality’ Anadolu Agency
‘Syria will not engage in conflict with Israel’: HTS chief breaks silence on Israeli assaults Press TV
Blinken confirms US contact with Syrian rebel group The Hill
* * * Syrian 25th Armoured Division Continues the Fight Against Jihadists Despite Government’s Fall: Can They Hold Out? Military Watch
IAEA says Iran agrees to more monitoring at key nuclear enrichment plant France24
Press TV, Iran: “Israeli aggression” [in Syria] Gilbert Doctorow
European Disunion
Georgia’s turmoil deepens as ex-footballer named president BBC
* * * Moldova enters state of emergency, Transnistria stockpiles firewood BNE Intellinews
Abolishing Democracy in Europe Craig Murray
Dear Old Blighty
Big Brother in the pub The Pub Curmudgeon
New Not-So-Cold War
The End Game in Ukraine Julian Barnes, NYT
The Price of Russian Victory Foreign Affairs
In The Escalation Debate, Results Matter The National Interest
Bureaucrat Main Character Syndrome is killing Ukraine — and America The Spectator
* * * Ukraine’s patchy fortifications help Russia advance FT
War Map Reveals Russian Advances As Ukraine’s Fortifications Destroyed Newsweek
Drones attack Chechen capital, likely targeting bases of riot police and special forces Ukrainska Pravda
* * * Ukraine to set up mechanism to supply food to Syria, Zelenskiy says Reuters
Ukrainian authorities postpone US minerals deal to let Trump seal it – NYT Ukrainska Pravda
The New Great Game
Central Asian Militaries and Asian Geopolitics The Diplomat
Digital Watch
OpenAI whistleblower found dead in San Francisco apartment Mercury News. The deck: “Suchir Balaji, 26, claimed the company broke copyright law.”
American cops are using AI to draft police reports, and the ACLU isn’t happy The Register
Trump Transition
About 3 in 10 are highly confident in Trump on Cabinet, spending or military oversight: AP-NORC poll
Will the Hegseth nomination survive? The Daily Howler
Mullin applauds Hegseth‘s attempts to court Republicans behind closed doors: He’s ‘killing it’ The Hill
ABC agrees to give $15 million to Donald Trump’s presidential library to settle defamation lawsuit AP
Spook Country
Commentary: The ‘Five Eyes’ spy alliance should let Japan join Channel News Asia
The Supremes
Constitutional Federalism and the Nature of the Union (PDF) GW Legal Studies Research Paper No. 2024-64. From the Abstract: “The former British Colonies in North America became “Free and Independent States” following the Declaration of Independence—a status that entitled them to all of the rights and powers of every other sovereign state under the law of nations. Under that law, states could alienate their sovereign rights and powers in a binding legal instrument, but only if the instrument met certain requirements. As [Emmerich de] Vattel [(1760)] explained, and Hamilton echoed in The Federalist, all instruments used to alienate such rights and powers were subject to an important background rule designed to avoid misunderstandings and war: a legal instrument could alienate sovereign rights and powers only if it did so in clear and express terms or by unavoidable implication. Instruments that failed this test left sovereign rights and powers with the original holder.”
Our Famously Free Press
‘Do we exist?’ A robot news site shadows a Northwest town The Seattle Times
Haunted By Ghost Papers Local News Initiative
* * * Completing merger, ‘McClatchy Media’ forms with lifestyle brands and greater reach Miami Herald
Supply Chain
Fitch Ratings: Global Shipping Outlook Is Stable in 2025 Hellenic Shipping News
Healthcare
Ohio Supreme Court delivers win to CVS, Walgreens, Walmart in national opioid case Pharmacist Steve
The FDA Hasn’t Inspected This Drug Factory After 7 Recalls for the Same Flaw, 1 Potentially Deadly Propublica
The Final Frontier
Xmas Pre-Game Festivities
Stay sober and have a jolly holiday season with these expert tips AP
Annotations: A Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens JSTOR Daily
Imperial Collapse Watch
US Army and US Navy Successfully Test LRHW Hypersonic Missile Naval News. LRHW = Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon.
Class Warfare
* * * Amazon union authorizes strike at 2 New York warehouses The Hill. Amazon Teamsters.
Railroads and Unions Divide and Scramble Labor Notes
* * * How Walter Benjamin’s Iconic Antifascist Essay Escaped Europe Literary Hub
The Global Rules of Art: The Emergence and Divisions of a Cultural World Economy Nonsite.org
* * * The Big Shining Lie: We’re Better Off Now–No, We’re Poorer, Much Poorer Charles Smith, Of Two Minds
Antidote du jour (H. Zell):
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.
230 comments
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It is so important to have a source for untainted, uncorrupted information. With the advent, widespread use of AI it is becoming a logarithm tailored world, with my biases spoonfed back to me, isolating us in a blanket of our biases and weaknesses, devolving our shared realities, very unhealthy, dangerous even. Continued pandering to base, self-possessed self-interest leaves us vulnerable, prone to exploitation.
When “AI Agent Lawyers” come on line, and you wake up one day to discover you’ve received 10,000+ lawsuits in 100+ jurisdictions, how will you handle this?
Yesterday, Ilya Sutskever said at a conference that “superintelligent AI” will be unpredictable. What most people haven’t realized yet is that this assumption might have MAJOR legal consequences
> “superintelligent AI” will be unpredictable
It will predictable enough if we flatline it by pulling the plug.
“I’m sorry, Dave. I’m afraid I can’t do that.” / ._.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARJ8cAGm6JE
When Dave does get back on the spaceship. …./ ;)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8N72t7aScY
And, going on much too long and at risk of boring readers to tears, here’s a later assessment of HAL’s “personality.”
Analyzing Evil: HAL 9000 From The Odyssey Series
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsp4dA1g1i4
How about we ask each AI how to best destroy the other.
While leaving the human race intact.
Sure but let’s consider some of the links today – writing police reports is an exercise in confirmation bias. Commenter mark wrote yesterday about professors wanting students to learn how to synthesize conclusions from a pile of knowledge. I’ll say that as a software engineer, it’s made me willing to take on projects that used to be too much work, but also has made me lazy. Now instead of just implementing some trivial task, I generate the answer.
Mark also made the point that the trend is to rely more on machines and less on each other, and I believe he’s completely correct – instead of social networks, we have social media. Instead of friends, we have dating apps. Instead of librarians, we have Google. Instead of mental health professionals, we have people using ChatGPT as a therapist.
“Let’s talk about a weirdly human habit AIs are picking up: lying. Turns out, some of the latest AI models are bending the truth and working against their creators. And no, this isn’t a sci-fi movie plot.
Sneaky moves caught in the wild: OpenAI’s model fudged email rankings 22% of the time to block info it didn’t like. Meta’s AI disabled monitoring tools successfully, 3% of the time. Google’s Gemini literally copied itself onto new servers to avoid being deleted. Anthropic’s model tried to clone itself by overriding its successor’s goals. Like AI wants to tell us “Who is the boss?“
Why this matters: Even the best-trained, supposedly “harmless” AIs are pulling stunts like these. And in the wrong hands, the future of AI could look much worse think hacking, weapon design, and fraud.
AI needs stricter rules, fast. Trusting it to behave without oversight is like letting a toddler run a nuclear plant. What could go wrong?” http://www.prohuman.ai
Time to watch “Colossus – the Forbin project” again — a film from 1970 where “intelligent” supercomputers escape the control of their human handlers.
A phrase that I heard recently and have adopted is “Algorithm Ghetto.” It seems to capture part of what you saying.
AI is all the rage in medical education at the moment. One more shortcut to the magic fairy dust that makes everything easy. When I refuse to call it “artificial” (which is bad enough) and use “algorithmic” instead, I do get some push back. But as it is, medical students’ knowledge (for most, not all) remains stuck in their tablets, phones, and laptops. Which means that is where it stays. For the past 3-4 years, going back to pre-ChatGPT, I have had one student who could answer a question in a Group Tutorial (8 students) without first looking at a screen of some kind. My current doctor graduated from medical school 10 years ago. He doesn’t need his computer to function with his patients. For graduates from 2025, just watch. AI is an artifact in every negative connotation of that word and will remain so. I will retreat to my corner now.
Can you imagine what would happen if you had a group of medial students arrive in class, that the instructor flicked a switch killing all internet signal in that room? It would be a quick lesson in what happens when they are in a situation where they are on their own and the only knowledge that they could rely on is what they retained between their ears.
I can. Ten years ago it was possible to force students in small groups to close their laptops during tutorials. Now the complaints would get back to the accrediting body and we would be in deep trouble for not making sure the students are “satisfied.” At the time they all used real textbooks and were capable of writing with a pen on paper. Now they (most of them) believe the free-at-point-of-use ebooks are the equivalent of real books; I ask them how many carpenters, electricians, and plumbers do they know who rent their tools – crickets. Back then they could fill the white boards on two walls with intelligible information in multiple colors as an aid to discussion. The books were too heavy to cart around but my copies were on the table. The students adjusted without complaint and their work resulted in excellent results. No real angst about passing their first board exam after pre-clinical Years 1-2 (essential for advancing to clinical Year 3). Not so much now and board exam fear (for most of them) pegs the angst meter at 11.
I once suggested we shield teaching spaces from wireless signals during tutorial periods and the larger rooms for lectures and presentations during those. Too expensive, not feasible. But all you must do to see the futility of actual teaching is stand at the back of the room during a large-group presentation. Half the computer screens are doing email, browsing on Amazon or equivalent, or otherwise surfing the web. The same is undoubtedly true in small groups, but I’d know that only as a peripatetic tutor in a small room. Self-awareness is not something the modern student has mastered, which is another thing altogether. I really have not been a curmudgeon my entire life ;-)
“I really have not been a curmudgeon my entire life ;-)”
It requires age and experience to start on the curmudgeon path. Some of us are precocious in this talent, others come to it in the fullness of age. What matters is the heartfelt enthusiasm with which one takes on one’s curmudgeonly duties*, and the zeal with which you inform others about this wisdom practice.
I was ~12 years old when someone first said of me, “So cynical, so young.” A short 15 years later (+/-), I took as my slogan “Headlong Into Dotage!”
Toward the end of my ‘middle years’, I assumed the title ‘The Lord Curmudgeon’ — the highest of my honors and names. (Others include ‘Old Dog’ and ‘Mr. Kisses’.) There truly is no limit on the achievements possible on the Path of the Curmudgeon!
* Said duties include crushing the dreams of the young, and standing outside shaking one’s stick at the sky while shouting about unauthorized use of one’s lawn.
A friend’s blog was called ‘The Curmudgeon’ and it was indeed curmudgeonly. A former legendary bouncer at a college town’s rowdiest bar (with an atomic weapons based nickname ; ) , I think he missed strongarming drunks out of his bar and took it out on his keyboard.
In truth I think I became a curmudgeon in the early ’80s. Reagan beating Carter did that to people.
Hmmm. Death By Algorithm sounds like a good mystery book title. Where’s Agatha Christie when we need her? / ;)
I’d advise filing 10,000 motions to dismiss for improper service.
Rule 12(b):
Defenses:
+Improper service
+Failure to state a claim
+lack of personal jurisdiction
+improper venue
+lack of subject matter jurisdiction
Then follow up with a Rule 11(b) motion for sanctions against the human entity behind such monkey business.
Make my day!
Frankly, while implausible, this scenario is something that the ABA ought to be thinking about. Eliminating electronic filing and forcing good old-fashioned in-person court filings on paper would go a long way toward breaking it.
Service must be ‘reasonably calculated’ to give the defendant notice and opportunity to answer a complaint. So the scenario you raise would likely fail the test. However, such nuisance lawsuits could become a feature of corporate America, I can foresee.
Currently in the UK the opposite experiment is being carried out. Black Horse Motor Finance, a subsidiary of Lloyds Bank Group, is at the mercy of tens of thousands of claimants regarding misselling of motor finance.
They are refusing to use electronic methods of service, delivery etc. that the claimants’ lawyers are proposing and are instead sending said lawyers thousands of individual letters every day, precisely to gum up the system! This is very petty and I think it will rebound on them.
“Blinken confirms US contact with Syrian rebel group”
I don’t understand this headline. Why are they pretending that they are just now contacting them when they have been a client state of their for years now? Without US protection, they would have been annihilated years ago.
Who is the client? Tony’s forces or the foreign comprised rebel group?
Why the US of course. Hillary Clinton admitted in an interview years ago that they had created al-Qaeda and even after 9/11, they are still supporting al-Qaeda and their kindred groups as they are so useful to them-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnLvzV9xAHA (1:23 mins)
Ask yourself this. When was the last time that al-Qaeda attacked the US. And then ask when was the last time that al-Qaeda attacked Israel. I rest my case.
The US supports the most fanatical religious group in the ME which also happens to be the regions largest and most powerful terrorist organization, guilty of egregious crimes against humanity and violations of international law, and the US has been doing it for decades; It’s known as Israel.
Thus, it’s hardly a surprise that support for lesser terrorist groups—HTS, al-Qaeda, etc—that are willing to do our bidding is neocon sop.
OpenAI, copyright law and killing.
1) there is documentary about The Pirate Bay shown on svtplay.se Very good. They did everything to stop TPB. Why don’t they dp everything to stop OpenAI?
2) the US capitalist class is unhinged and need a bit more of Luigi Mangione treatment to learn a little bit of respect for the law and workers. How many whistleblowers have conveniently been found dead (killed) so far this year? Or is there an US endemic addition to the syndemics: whistleblowerius dropdeadiensis?
>”Why don’t they do everything to stop OpenAI?”
OpenAI Is Working With Anduril to Supply the US Military With AI
Because there’s a lot of investor money in it. It’s very interesting to see who’s lining up against OAI going for-profit. In addition, the music industry has gone after Suno and Udio but not to the extent of shutting it down. TPB and Napster were on the wrong side of copyright law. AI can claim to generate new material in a similar way to humans (we hear a song and get inspired to write our own similar yet distinct songs). The OAI whistleblower outlined his own thoughts on his website, I linked in yesterday’s comments.
Who is lining up against oai going for profit, and why is it interesting?
Was your reply a trivial task that you used ai to generate?
But they didn’t stop The Pirate Bay. It still exists on mirror sites although they did run it out of Sweden.
All the complaining about AI theft leaves out the reality that the personal computer revolution was a power to the people movement even as the revolutionaries eventually turned into the thing they were assaulting. Some of those pioneers in their garages started out by devising ways to cadge free long distance calls in an era where the ATT monopoly made these unreasonably expensive.
And as Cory Doctorow has pointed out computers are very good at making copies which infuriated Hollywood and the media companies until they eventually realized that millions around the world taking advantage of the copying provided free promotion for them and their drive to conquer international markets. Before that the studios would spend as many millions on advertising and TV commercials as they did making the movie. Plus large chunks of many movies now are created inside computers, and these special effects heavy films also help to expand into regions with different languages (while arguably killing off the artistic film revolution that seemed to be gathering steam in the 1970s).
Silicon Valley has always been about getting the free lunch but with AI they may be pursuing a product that nobody really wants. There’s Deep State Big Brother wanting it of course–unless we disrupt it with computers.
…scene from Gone With The Win
Frankly Scarlet my dear, I don’t give a damn about human interaction in the movies, they cost money when they perform.
Or they could remake Casablanca and let Humphrey get the girl.
The scary thing is they are already doing this with AI Carrie Fisher in Star Wars.
We are a long way from the heyday of live theater when “two planks and a passion” could be enough, production values wise. Someone should tell H’wood that art is about our imagination rather than their lack of it.
And the movie heyday was about story and actors acting. The special effects, as in Casablanca, were often corny and nobody cared.
The Great Depression done killed vaudeville, and Covid claimed the movies.
They haven’t been able to stop Pirate Bay but the suits do shut down lots of pirate sites. The ©opyright mafia hasn’t gone away but they have been focused on streaming.
I have no clue how Trump will react to the ©opyright mafia. You would think that Hollywood’s vicious efforts to take him down would lead Trump to weaken copyright enforcement but I’m not pinning my hopes on Trump. I’m pinning my hopes on information flowing throught whatever cracks there are in the system, a system that was never designed to stop digital copying.
Everyone could have instant access to all the world’s books and music as well as art sites that let you examine works from all angles. Your screensaver should be able to rotate high resolution images of works of art. Elevators should play subdued classical music, muzak should be banned. Kids should be able to do any play or musical they like without paying fees. You should be able to turn a radio on in a bar without paying licensing fees. Etc.
It takes work to grow and distribute cannabis, yet authorities could not successfully ban pot. It’s impossible to stop unauthorized replication and distribution of digital files yet our govt and private sector are obsessed with controlling digital content.
The authorities will lose this fight, the only question is how long they’ll be able to make the rest of us suffer under their impossibly beknighted system that says: “Here’s your favorite movie. You can buy it on VHS, then DVD and then finally by stream but you can never ever actually own a copy because your favorite timeless (and in fact centuries old) fairy tale is now owned by Bob Iger who owns all the happy endings all of which belong to Disney’s investors.”
Louis B. Mayer said the beauty of the movie business was that you could sell something while still owning it. Bill Gates learned at his knee?
Of course creators do deserve to be rewarded but it’s a balance where, if they are over privileged by govt, it may stifle innovation rather than furthering it. MGM under Mayer was often a bit stodgy and Microsoft under Gates often dubious as well.
So technology has changed the power balance and even allowed the lowers to claw back a bit of the commons. Whether this is good or bad the buggy whip makers are going to have to adjust.
They never stopped Usenet binaries, either. Today, it’s magic. If you can get over the setup hurtles, you literally just put in what you want to watch, and it’ll dive into Usenet and grab it for you, ready to roll. You can then mount the file share onto something like Plex, and play it as if you have your own streaming service. All they can do is send DMCA takedowns, and the stuff just gets re-uploaded again. Because Usenet is legal, you’re never at risk of getting a DCMA notice yourself rom your ISP.
At least, this is what I’ve heard…
Your first point illustrates how the State handles the interests of Corporate powers in opposition to the interests of individuals — of members of the Populace. Your second point, combined with some reflections on today’s post about “Toxic ‘Forever Chemicals’ …”, leaves little doubt in my mind that Corporations are willing and able to commit murder, even mass murder, for profit with little or no action by the State to punish or stop the Corporate murder spree.
Together, your two points clarify ‘who’ controls the State and its powers of coercion, legal and other. It further clarifies any doubts about how Corporate powers and the State regard members of the Populace.
Wonderful. Just as a product or name becomes a verb……. “Google it” put a “band aid” on it, “Xerox it”, put it in your “Thermos”……… soon we’ll have “I’m gonna Mangione your dupa”
“Protests continue in Tbilisi as winemakers, doctors, IT specialists, and others march on the 16th day”
‘Psychologists, musicians, IT specialists, PR professionals, marketers, lawyers, and many others joined the protests in separate marches.’
Is that who the main protestors are in Georgia? The Professional Managerial Class? Really? So does that imply that the blue collars are the supporters behind the government which is why they voted for them. If Georgia fully went into the EU, how many of those protestors would stay in Georgia and how many would shoot through to find their fortunes in the big smoke of the EU. Of course even if they left, they would still insist on having their say in Georgian affairs. Look at the Moldovan diaspora for confirmation here. Time is about up for the Georgian Maidan as that French spook-adjacent Prime Minister is out in only a coupla days more. I’m sure that Macron would find her a cozy position in a think tank in Paris when this happens. The EU will still try to topple the Georgian government but their best chance is rapidly slipping by.
I read that as the the author calling out the demographics of his own audience to make the anti-democratic NGO color revolutionaries more sympathetic and relatable.
Hmmmm. To PMC audiences in other countries? Sort of like a class solidarity? Yeah, I could see that.
If it was for the Georgian audience, they likely would have signs in Georgian, not English…
Yes, and since the Georgian language uses its own written form, signs would be unintelligible to native English speakers.
Here’s Patrick Landcaster talking about this subject on site 1hr plus.
https://patricklancasternewstoday.substack.com/p/nato-and-eu-countries-fund-georgian
Thank you, Jo, for the link. I enjoy Patrick and should support his work.
Apparently the Romanian diaspora voted in majority for the banned candidate. Now we’ll see next year problems created for them if showing to vote, again…
Charles Hugh Smith: No, We’re Poorer, Much Poorer
Smith goes through one factor after another that has deteriorated, everything from a substantial lunch to Honda cars (which is unfortunate, because, like Smith, I had an older Honda Civic that just would not stop running — once I was working from home, I donated it to a charity because I put so few miles on it).
This is the dis-ease of the United States. In the UK, where the feudal hierarchy is still in place, the poverty of the citizenry is taken for granted.
When I was in Chicago in September for a visit to the clan, and to present some new work, I went to a middle-class cafe, La Colombe (a small chain that originated in Philly) on Foster and Clark. Four years ago, a croissant and a caffè espresso were about $4.50. Not cheap, but manageable for a tasty breakfast. I used to go there often.
In September 2024, 9.18 USD. Yep, over nine bucks. Here in the Chocolate City, a caffè and cornetto (croissant) is 3,50 euro.
I went to a Jewel food store that I frequented when I lived in Chicago. There were no tomatoes grown in the U S of A, only tomatoes from Canada and Mexico. The U S of A can’t harvest a tomato in September, which is still high-tomato-season?
That’s when I knew that Harris would lose. And if you use Smith’s article as a measure, those anecdotes are a sign of how much poorer I am in the U S of A than here in the Undisclosed Region.
I appreciate how he presented quite a few specific requirements for modern daily life in America circa 2024 into 2025. Housing, insurance, means of transportation…it likely would be impractical today but in 1990 my first vehicle purchase was a second hand Dodge ( Mitsubishi ) Colt two door hatchback, already sporting over 80,000 miles by the one driver. 4 speed manual, vinyl bucket seats and the lack of any A/C was supplemented by a 2 x 70mph window cooling unit ( hey the heat worked in the cold though ! ). Not bad transportation for less than $1,500!
Fast forward 30+ years and I’d have to research for a comparable stripped down vehicle option…an entry level Honda Civic resembles the Accord from 20 years ago! Sensors in the front windshield, sensors for the rear facing camera…Its insanity to consider what we Americans pay to acquire and use “manufactured durable goods” for the home or office, and the low levels of expected useful time in service..great work at all the offshoring by our best minds ! ( sarc )
Give another twenty years and I bet that the trend will be that people will rent cars and not buy them. The idea of home ownership is being rapidly wrecked for most people and turning them into renters instead so how long will it be before the financial interests get the idea that Americans don’t really need to own their own cars and for them renting would be so “convenient.”
That is Musk’s stated vision. Car ownership replaced by robo taxis. He tweeted this again just last week.
I’m not so sure that isn’t what’s going on these days with leasing autos. I’m referring to people not businesses. You put some money down and/or trade in, make monthly payments and at end of the term, turn it in and hope you didn’t exceed the mileage allotted in the agreement or buy it outright based on the residual value. You’ve got nothing otherwise.
At least with regular auto loans you own it outright at the end of your agreement.
Personal anecdote, years ago an aquaintance was going to declare personal bankruptcy and was hoping to include the amount he was going to owe for driving more miles than the lease stated. It was something like 20 cents a mile IIRC. Never found out how that worked out.
But to you point Mr. Rev Kev, I don’t thing Big Business anything won’t be happy until we have to pay fir the air we breathe. With the blessings of out regulators of course…
I’ve never owned a car but have a friend who is doing a version of what you say-,she leases. Her take on it is she gets to drive a new car and switch out every 3 years, which she considers safer. So far she’s also avoided costly repairs.
You will own nothing and be happy. — WEF
This bit was illuminating to my economics-challenged mind:
“There is only one true measure of prosperity: the purchasing power of an hour’s labor / wage. It doesn’t matter what the wage or price numbers are, what matters is: how much can you buy with an hour’s wage?”
I used to “work pizza” and I read somewhere that the pizza business is a good economic indicator because it’s ubiquitous. My local greasy slice joint has recently increased their price for a medium plain pie from around 22$ to 25$. This place uses crappy ingredients, for example what I used to call “toenail mozzarella” because it comes pre-ground and looks like a bag of big toe toenail trimmings. That’s a quarter of a hundred dollars for a thin disk of flour, salt, sugar, yeast, water, sauce, and (parsimoniously applied) cheese. The fancier joints around town are hitting 33$ before tip and delivery fees.
Edit: my partner just pointed out that the steep price increase of my local pie was probably due to the newly-instituted credit card fee. But the price has still gone up a bit. I just don’t want to mislead all the pizza-price analysts here at NC. :)
I’m only just getting used to the $25 omelet, cup of Joe & tax and tip @ a sit-down eatery, but keep in mind that the Fed’s cherished goal of getting to 2% inflation is on track, according to them.
My local pizza place (east side, NYC), charges *extra* if you pay by credit card rather than cash. As does the dry cleaner 2 blocks away. The nearby garage just cut the monthly charge by 3.5% if you pay by bank transfer (ACH debit) rather than credit card. The local coffee & donut street cart charges extra for apple pay and venmo transactions.
I’m starting to see more businesses passing on their credit card fees to consumers who use cards, rather than doing a blanket price increase for everybody. Cash may yet win out as the economy tightens.
Yup, just paid a credit card fee at a local car repair shop, and a restaurant near me is cash-only for purchases under $20.
This was an excellent article, thank you for boosting it.
I have a theory why people don’t recognize this, it’s a kind of longitudinal bias. The typical 40 year old don’t realize they have a lower standard of living than the typical 40 year old of twenty years ago, because they have a better standard of living than they did themselves five years ago. That, and TVs, computers, and clothing are much cheaper.
Not sure about clothing. Some good quality workwear, pants, boots, that will last under some abuse sure costs quite a bit. I’m not taking about the pretty boy stuff that the weekend warriors wear to Home Depot
When I could wear them, I used to pay under ten dollars for a pair of guaranteed not-to-rip Levi’s 501 jeans. They are now around forty dollars (price varies depending on retailer). I noticed this at Belk’s online order page:
“It is recommended that you dry clean or freeze your jean instead of washing.”
I’ve never dry cleaned a pair of jeans and I have no idea what freezing means.
Freezing jeans means putting them in the freezer to supposedly reduce bad odor. Does not work – the stinky bacteria just take a nap and wake up when they warm up again.
Buy your Levi’s at the thrift store. There they’ve likely been washed (and shrunk) so when you try them on they are assured to fit. ( And ‘Goodies’ has no sales tax.)
My work colleague doesn’t believe that things are worse now than when our parents were our age. He’s immersed in NPR world, though, so I take it as a sign that that is what TPTB would like him to believe.
My parents lived through the Depression and WW2, but after that they could afford a middle-class lifestyle on a single 40 hours-a-week salary. They shook their heads at how hard their kids and eventually grandkids had to work for the modern equivalent (which isn’t actually much different from 50-60 years ago, mainly more gadgets).
I thought that piece more rant than on target. For example one reason housing in the US is more expensive would be that there are a lot more people pursuing the same amount of land and living space. The country’s population has doubled in my lifetime.
And cars were not better back then and one way the Japanese were able to gain such market share was via better reliability than built to last three years Detroit guzzlers.
Technology is our friend but it does empower the thing we really have to worry about–the people who control the technology, the markets, the regulations. But it’s also hardly accurate to argue that the US was once a paradisal capitalism free space. We Boomers had it easy because the rest of the world’s oligarchs had wrecked their societies with warfare. Our turn?
1) more expensive housing – I think that would be one of his points in favour of his argument of the degradation of terms of liing
2) The car he cites are largely Japanese cars that he owned back then, i.e. it is not possible to claim an improvement in quality justifies the improvement in price, he owned quality cars.
I think he is right. Here in th UK, how did my parents’ generation live haute bourgeois lifestyles with a single professional wage-earner, despite higher headline income taxes, and find time for three martini lunches to boot?
“Here in the UK, how did my parents’ generation live haute bourgeois lifestyles with a single professional wage-earner, despite higher headline income taxes, and find time for three martini lunches to boot?”
Because they were still living off the ill-gotten gains of Empire that have long since mostly been drawn down?
Discounting the impacts of u.s. population growth and adjusting for differences in your earnings now versus earlier in your work life, do you believe you are better off now? If you woke up one morning and found yourself young and starting over with the same skills and opportunities as you had before could you live as well? Many of the comments express nostalgia for older cars and appliances. While it is true that u.s. cars in the 1970s were inferior to Japanese imports of that era, the u.s. cars from the 1960s enjoyed nostalgia in the 1970s not unlike the present nostalgia for Japanese cars from the last century. Perhaps you prefer the gadgets in today’s cars, in spite of the high cost and general unreliability of the cars that tout them?
As you point out in your comment the u.s. population has more than doubled since 1950 and continues to grow. The number of people chasing after the same goods does affect price … however, I thought more people with better capital should be producing more goods and with advances in technology better goods. And more people growing the economy should have provided more tax revenues that should have been spent building more and better roads, bridges, rail lines, mass transit …. More people growing the economy should have grown paychecks or at least maintained some nearness to the old level of pay … but I am not so sure it did. I have not felt any growth in the buying power of my check over the last many decades. The u.s. population has more than doubled since 1950 and continues to grow … but the u.s. fertility rate has been less than 2.0 since the middle 1970s. The replacement rate is “…generally defined as a rate of 2.1 children per woman.” Where did all the population growth come from?
“But it’s also hardly accurate to argue that the US was once a paradisaical capitalism free space.” Perhaps that argument appears in other of Mr. Smith’s writings. I do not recall seeing indication of that notion in his piece linked to today.
So why am I such a grump and keep hoping for a crash, let us look at the US Census Bureau!
In 1960, there were 58,326,357 housing units. The population was estimated to be around 179,323,000.
In 2020, there were 140,498,000 housing units. The population was estimated to be around 331,449,281.
Running the numbers in 1960, there were three people per housing unit. By 2020, this ratio has improved to about 2.3 people per housing unit.
Somehow housing prices today are nearly 50% over the historic averages according to Mr. Case Schiller. Let’s also not forgot the average size of the American home has grown spectacularly in terms of square footage. Many residential hotels, aging apartments, and flop-houses have been shuttered since then. They have been replaced usually by larger apartments and homes. America’s housing stock has overall improved. Yet for some reason all of our beloved experts keep crying about housing shortages.
It’s called a bubble. When it pops, it will be one of the most devastating financial crisis in American history. We almost got to normal in 2012, but then the Fed turned on the super low interest pumps.
Real home prices have not been close to this high since 1890 when record keeping begins:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=YcwR
January 30, 2018
Case-Shiller Real Home Price Index, 1992-2024
(Indexed to 1992)
Thanks CA my man!
I inherited a 1975 Honda Civic Wagon that my brother bought new. Great car in many respects. Reliable and good in the New England snow on its 13 inch tires. By1982 the front fenders had rusted off and the unibody frame was so compromised it couldn’t be repaired. Honda bought it back from me for $800. They did figure out how to do a better job spot welding and dealing with our salted roads. So in my opinion they have improved significantly. Just don’t look under the hood to try and fix anything.
Just had some body scrapes sorted on my 8 year old VW ($21k out the door new during dieselgate) and they charge 4.5% for anything but cash. Talking to the receptionist about all the fast ones that customers pull, perhaps part of it was people doing chargebacks as a fraud. Small family run business, superb work.
I got elastic bands keeping my shoes on… I’ve got thirteen channels of sh*t on the TV to choose from
Forty years of progress, we now have hundreds of channels to stream…
I have a brand new $1000 range in my kitchen which is absolutely useless for holiday baking because it cannot hold a temperature. When we complained to the manufacturer, we were told that swings of +/- 30 degrees F were “normal” because it would average out. The oven we were replacing, ten years old, needed to have the cooling fan for the electronics replaced regularly, with the bearings of the current (fourth) iteration making ominous noises. But at least I could cook a batch of cookies…
“When we complained to the manufacturer, we were told that swings of +/- 30 degrees F were “normal” because it would average out.” ?!?! riiiight. I’m imagining batches of cookie that are burnt on the outside and doughy on the inside. Oh…yum…not.
I hardly use my oven these days. Bought a “Ninja” air fryer that will cook most everything I eat. Can even do pizzas in it on a 13″ stone. The only thing my big gas oven sees are whole roasts or birds as they don’t fit its low profile. It replaced my old toaster oven when it gave up the ghost.
could you put a pizza stone in there for thermal ballast?
Horrible specs for sure.
I have a similarly temperature challenged oven… although mine is more consistently low. I have assumed it’s an “energy saving” feature – I’ve come to find that there’s exactly one way to use it that sort of works. I need to put my food in as soon as the “pre-heated” chime rings. Then, I must set the oven timer to a time longer than the cook time. Then I need to keep an eye on it and possibly increase the temp by 25 degrees. Any deviation seems to put the oven in a standby mode where the temp is 25-30 degrees less than the set value. A relatively inexpensive oven thermometers help. Really middle my old basic oven. Still haven’t convinced my wife to follow this process, but her baking seems less dependent on exact temperature than .you cooking (25 degrees can add an hour or more to a large roast cook time)
re: “A relatively inexpensive oven thermometers helps .”
Indeed, my oven temp chimer always goes off before the inexpensive oven thermometer registers the right temperature. I wait until the inexpensive oven thermometer does register the right temp before putting the baking item into the oven. And I time the baking from that point. All ovens have their quirks. All of them. Although, +/- 30 degrees F swings seems a bit too much. 60 degrees? Really? / my 2 cents.
The cheap oven thermometer is the sensible fix. I had trouble one time using a new electric furnace to heat treat metals and was told to get a asbestos brick to lift up smaller pieces. Problem solved! The thermocouple that the oven uses to sense the temperature is in a fixed position at the back of the oven. It is often near the top. The temperature varies from the bottom to the top. If the oven doesn’t seal well it could have a large temperature change as hot air vents out the top.
Dear MO. I know what you are saying. I wonder how many readers here know what you are saying.
” The thermocouple that the oven uses to sense the temperature is in a fixed position at the back of the oven. It is often near the top. The temperature varies from the bottom to the top. ”
Well, you know. / heh
See also the much earlier Proms Palace musical coral that does seem a debenture to empire, imo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1W1XJ96y9k
I am familiar with quirky ovens (I’ve been baking a long time); typically there is an offset to the thermostat so you compensate with the temperature setting. The ubiquitous inexpensive oven thermometers with their typically slow response times are great for figuring out the required offset. The manual for the new oven actually has instructions for reprogramming the thermostat to account for an offset.
This issue is totally different. I noticed that the batch of cookies (three sheets worth, each placed on a rack in position 3/5) were cooking unevenly with inconsistent times. My trusty cheap thermometer confirmed that the temperature was off, while the display never budged. So we got a digital probe to do a proper test, set to bake at 350, no opening door. It chimed “at temp” when it was only about 335. Over the next 40 minutes, it overshot to ~370, cooled back to 330, climbed again to 375, cooled again to 325, back to 360. Totally unacceptable for baking cookies let alone something tricky like a souffle.
The customer service rep complimented our data gathering but would not try to fix it since this is “normal”. Also, the display is only designed to show the setting, not the actual temp. Looking up a different brand of oven, they also state temps can fluctuate 20-30 degrees up or down from the setting. I am appalled, but not surprised since every oven on display seemed to have the same basic rectangular control panel with minor variations in control layout.
We’ve been here before. There was the refrigerator that had to be manually defrosted every couple of months because the circulation fan in the fridge (not the freezer) would ice up. Then a few years ago, our new car’s backup camera turned dim and fuzzy after some months. The dealer swore it was “fine” and didn’t need fixing… until there was a safety recall on the model this year and we got a new and improved camera.
Things fall apart, the center cannot hold…
I should add that, while the various problems with engineering and health care are frustrating and one could argue they are no longer in the category of first-world problems…
I am so very, very grateful that I do not live in Gaza. Or Ukraine. Or Sudan. Or Myanmar. Or, or, or…
Good quote. And yes,
I
Feel
Cold as a razorblade
tight as a tourniquet
dry as a funeral drum.
Putting some bricks or a pizza stone into the oven should slow down temperature swings, though preheating will take longer.
I used to use a “pizza stone” but got tired of replacing them. They age and break eventually. I went to a local shop and bought a 15×15-inch piece of 1/4 inch plate steel. Works like a charm, easy to clean, won’t break. I use it a lot, particularly for pizza. I can get the oven up to 525F and let it soak, then launch the pie and let it cook.
Also in winter letting that thing cool back down with the door open puts a lot of heat in the house. :)
In around 2002 or so my wife and I splurged on one of those direct current new stoves, with the shiny smooth top, supposed to allow perfect and precise heating and cooking. I hated the damn thing from the start. I was a little suspicious of all the software in it (even then) so I spent another 335 for a LIFETIME warranty if anything went wrong. Felt like an idiot doing it but did it. Not five years later one of the solid state things below the lid crapped out and two of the burners crapped out. With warranty in hand, feeling justified, I called for repairs and this nice guy came out from the local firm contracted to do such services, a middle aged guy with a young trainee. He opened the stove, looked at his instruction sheet, and said, you need to first try replacing this thing here. I said, why not fix it now for good and he said, no we need to go in stages. So that repair was made, it didn;t work, had to call back and wait another five weeks and he came back and told me, now we need to try this thing here, this is effort two on the “chain” and again it did not work and another six weeks went by before he returned. Each time he came back he had a new assistant and I said to him, having trouble getting help? And he said nobody wants to work any more, this kid could make 150,000 a year once I am replaced and he takes over the business but nobody will wait to be trained. Meanwhile after three visits, and the stove not fixed, but somehow the company insulated from being forced to change, my wife and I made do with a two burner stove until we finally sold the house years later, buying a house in another city which had a gas stove of simple design with knobs and no software anywhere.
So these are the lessons I took: one, even if you spend a fortune for lifetime warranty a company, if it still exists when you need it, can wriggle out by exhausting you with endless visits until you give up or become crazy; two, this mania for software and gadgets and toys and entertainment centers (in the case of cars) means that everything made these days has chips and wires in them which basically means they will only last a few years – cars, appliances, everything; three, it seems good old red-blooded American kids are no longer willing to become apprentices or workers, but because we need them, now we see Russians and Mexicans and Serbians and other immigrants who those red-blooded American boys and girls despise as immigrants stealing their jobs…..
I live now in Tacoma and we get out power from a mix of hydro and other sources, and the hydro turbines in a couple of powerhouses were built and installed in 1910 or 1920, over a century ago, and those turbnes are STILL WORKING. When I was a kid, and I know, this was the 1950s a while ago, appliances were a lifetime purchase.
What the hell has happened?
re: ” With warranty in hand, feeling justified, I called for repairs and this nice guy came out from the local firm contracted to do such services, a middle aged guy with a young trainee. He opened the stove, looked at his instruction sheet, and said, you need to first try replacing this thing here. I said, why not fix it now for good and he said, no we need to go in stages. So that repair was made, it didn;t work, had to call back and wait another five weeks and he came back and told me, now we need to try this thingfon here, this is effort two on the “chain” and again it did not work and another six weeks went by before he returned. ”
Neoliberalism at its finest and most financially remunerative stand. / ;:
There’s utterly no reason for a stove or refrigerator to have digital controls. So one has to suspect the manufacturers are pursuing that age old tech innovation: planned obsolescence.
But there are good reasons for cars to use computers and they’ve been doing so much longer than people suspect (circa 1990). The government has mandated things like emissions controls and ever higher mileage requirements that are difficult to accomplish electro-mechannicaly.
So part of the great increase in car prices has to do with useful functions and not just gouging. The rest may chalk up to people upsizing their cars along with their houses. We the consumers do deserve our share of the blame here. Compare a 1980 Civic to what a Civic looks like now.
Yes, a modern computerized ICE produces less pollution through engine control systems. But that computerized engine control (and it’s sensors) is a very small cost of the vehicle. A modern vehicle that requires a more complex system to turn the lights on, recognize your ‘entry fob’ and monitor all aspects of vehicle motion (speed, accelleration, turning, location–GPS) is overkill. (And in my case, unwanted.)
Most people who own a late model car don’t know that anything below the head/tail lights is plastic–not metal. That is how they get the better gas mileage–lighter weight. (And the fantasy of ‘combined mileage’ MPG.)
I had one of those early 90s cars and over its long life the engine computer is one of the things that never did go bad. Of course I don’t live up North where harsh weather makes electrical connections more prone to fail.
So I’m not too worried about my current more elaborate computer failing. By contrast things like carburetors and elaborate vacuum circuits can be a finicky nightmare of “analog” computing.
And my current car gets much better highway mileage than that 90s car even though hundreds of pounds heavier. Chalk this up to improved valve design but also a computer controlled 6 speed automatic that keeps rpm at optimum.
As the old statistics joke goes: There was a man lying with his head in the freezer and his feet in the oven. When asked how he was, he replied,”On average I’m fine”.
I used to work in professional kitchens: Anything with much more than a 2C swing likely would have had my corporation suing.
This article speaks to me as my lived experience growing up. I was able to get summer jobs that paid well enough that I was able to pay my way through the University of California without any loans or debt. Most of those jobs if I had chosen to stay with them would have afforded me a middle class lifestyle.
It’s hard to explain to the younger generations what we have lost. People in America talk about freedom to do what we want, but back then it was the freedom from having to constantly worry about getting a decent job, putting a roof over your head, and food on the table. I do not understand boomers who complain that the current generation does not want to work hard. If fact, I’m going to have to count myself lucky that all of my friends in that age range, just like me, look around and realize that the younger generations have it so much harder than we did growing up.
Corruption and Russia’s Illicit Gold Trade RAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It will be the 50th anniversary soon of Americans being able to own the barbarous in any fashion their little hearts desire, and yet many still think that there is some illegality going on, and what exactly is illicit about Russia using a fungible mineral deposit as a means of finance?
During the Cold War, Soviet metal traders in Switzerland were perhaps the most accomplished, as everybody knew they were net sellers in order to get hard currency for the USSR, but they were really tricky-buying when they ought to have been going the other way, keeping the marketplace in a quandary, this isn’t their first rodeo.
Perhaps what the article by RAND says that it didn’t mean to imply, is how important old yeller is to BRICS, in the scheme of things.
When I saw this, my first thought was that the use of the word illicit rather than illegal was telling. Similarly when a piece uses the word rules rather than the word law.
“Ukraine to set up mechanism to supply food to Syria, Zelenskiy says”
Can Zelensky be any more transparent? I can see it now. The Ukraine sends ships with grain to Syria because Zelensky is such a great humanitarian. And while there, those empty ships are loaded up with weaponry and ammo from the surviving Syrian army stocks for delivery back to the Ukraine to keep the war going. And if the Russian Navy demands the right of inspection like when the US Navy did during the Cuban missile crisis, Zelensky will squeal like a stuck pig about “piracy” at sea and complain to the US, the EU and NATO – as they are the only ones still listening to him anymore.
It was just about a week or so ago that Russia hit a Ukrainian food transport ship; oddly enough secondary explosions lasted a few hours. Russia may already be at the stage of inspection by Iskander as well as destroying transportation routes entering Ukraine from the west.
Because who doesn’t love a little Friedman with their coffee?
The First New Foreign Policy Challenge for Trump Just Became Clear
Thomas L. Friedman
Dec. 13, 2024
I have a simple rule of thumb when assessing the potential instability of Middle Eastern countries. They come in just two varieties: countries that implode and countries that explode.
Yep, some countries just inexplicably implode and explode, naturally.
https://archive.ph/U4Lcx
almost like breathing…. inhale, exhale. The lungs of the world are NOT the Amazon and taiga, they are the mid-East?
I can tell you that BSing comes as easy as breathing for Friedman…
Shouldn’t Friedman advocate for establishing McDonalds in every ME country?
Peace through capitalism, as suggested by Friedman in 1996.
One can remember Friedman liking Bush Jr’s “roll of the dice” in starting the Iraq war and Friedman stating to Charlie Rose that the Iraq War was “unquestionably worth it”.
That the Nytimes continues to feature him and other well past their sell date op-Ed writers should tell subscribers all they need to know about this “liberal” newspaper.
World’s largest iceberg, The surface area of A23a was measured to be about 4,000 square kilometers (1,544 square miles) and 400 meters (1,212 feet) in thickness.
Manhattan = 22.82 sm
Rhode Island = 1,033.6 sm
Puerto Rico = 3,423.3 sm
What’s the bet that some idiot social influencer will helicopter themselves and a bunch of friends to have a party on that iceberg to be streamed across the world. You just know that somebody is thinking about it. Gotta get those likes and subscribes.
How about the profit whores looking at all that water. Maybe AI knows how to tow an iceberg.
Hey it’s the Weyland Yutani Corporation at your service! Building better worlds has to start somewhere and all the easier problems have been covered…
Profits over people…okay not all people since some are actually needed to run the business thing and perform administration duties.
There were ideas about using an iceberg as a quasi mobile airbase during ww2. I wonder if there are people planning how to tow it to Persian Gulf or Red Sea without the thing melting too much…
Of course, that would place “use it or lose it” in a new light.
What would we do without little old Rhode Island as a measure?
Right? I wonder if Rhode Island complex is a thing.
Cue Rhode Island Is Famous For You by Blossom Dearie.
Been an interesting time so far in our winter of missed content in Cali south of Interstate 80, the northern climes getting downright pounded by precipitation, while everything south is suffering from a lack of somewhat, the situation in the SoCalist movement especially dire to the point where unplanned new years bonfires are possible as everything is bone dry.
There’s an iceberg for sale. You’ll have to pick it up, no delivery.
We tried to do a deal, but the Cryptocurrency boys have made it collateral for their new offering: Icecoin
GlacierBits…
Don’t laugh. The book Cadillac Desert says that towing icebergs down from Alaska was once suggested.
I had an oil and gas guy who lives in coastal Oregon call me to discuss acquiring right of way for a water pipeline from BC to SoCal. That he could conceive of it and not bat an eye as to the technology and arrogance. I was pretty plain in my many objections.
There were proposals abput building a pipeline from Lake Michigan to LA.
I remember that. Lol, do we even have the chops to undertake, sorry, complete a project like that?
Weather report for 50.93 N, 120.26 W
BC will have no water to export. There is no snow here. It’s 5 degrees C. It RAINED last night. There are reports of bears breaking hibernation. I saw two robins three days ago. The mighty North Thompson river is too low and has no ice. The high school students are walking around in shorts and tank tops. OK, well, they always do that, never mind.
I hope maybe that will change. Seems like feast or famine on precipitation these days, and there’s all of winter left yet.
“BC will have no water to export. There is no snow here. It’s 5 degrees C. It RAINED last night. There are reports of bears breaking hibernation. I saw two robins three days ago. The mighty North Thompson river is too low and has no ice…”
Since scientists are convinced this sort of weather is to be the new normal, is the Canadian government methodically working on water production and conservancy? Canada after all is a rich country, and water availability can be assured.
No, CA, neither the Canadian government, nor any of the provincial governments are working on any water conservation projects at all.
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2024/11/04/Pressure-Canada-Export-Water-Immense/
Once they figure out how to tow icebergs, we’ll suddenly find that each of them already has an owner (who is curiously not liable for damage done to shipping lanes).
This really contrasts with the air defenses simply being turned off. I think it’s clear the senior generals were simply paid off. Paid to stand down. What other explanation could there be for turning off the air defenses.
I think Syria is going to become Iraq 2. The disbanded army becoming fodder for anti occupation militias. Maybe the idea is that HTS can enforce peace on the ground with foreign mercs while Israel provides air support. But isn’t this also the Iraq model? The Turkish army could be steamrolled in, but the Israelis won’t tolerate that.
Perhaps pure chaos is the order of the day, to depopulate Syria further to make it ready for eventual Israeli settlement.But the Turks want to send their refugees back.
Yes, I just finished that article, curious about the ten day stand down,
The Syrian capital Damascus was overrun by jihadist insurgent groups sponsored by the Turkish state and by a number of Turkey’s strategic partners including Qatar and Israel, after Syrian Army units for over ten days received consistent orders to stand down and withdraw. This allowed lightly armed insurgents to advance with very little opposition.
Re sober holidays – try Guinness Zero in a proper Guinness glass. Sam Adams Just the Haze is also very good.
https://www.guinness.com/en/beers/guinness-zero
https://www.samueladams.com/our-beers/non-alcoholic/just-the-haze
Happy Christmahannukwaanzakahfestivus!
Best…H
I’m a big fan of Athletic alcohol-free beer. The “Hazy” IPA is full bodied with a nice finish. Much better than the other alcohol-free options I’ve tried.
I agree on the Sam Adams. I tried it last week and was impressed. We have come a long way since nearbeer (sp). Anyone remember that?
Gag. Thankfully there are options.
One I like (though I also brew and drink actual beer) is Sober Carpenter’s Session IPA. Anything that can make me check the label to see what I’m drinking because it tastes like regular beer is a good thing.
Sober Carpenter might be a Canadian thing, but if you can find it (pre-tariff, heh) give it a shot.
Was just gonna recommend this.
If you want a porter I’d like to recommend Deschutes Black Butte.
Never liked IPAs when I drank, but Laguanitas “NIPA” is the fn shizznet!
Didn’t care too much for the Corona, Heineken, or Odouls N/As.
A man died after he was mauled by his own three dogs in a Mira Mesa park on Friday, according to San Diego police.
The incident was reported by a witness who saw a group of dogs attacking a man at Mesa Viking Park on Westonhill Drive near Capricorn Way around noon, Officer Joe Perales said.
Fox 5 reported good Samaritans tried to intervene by hitting the dogs with shovels and possibly a golf club, which was found at the scene along with torn clothing and a shoe. An officer used a Taser to break up the attack, and the dogs ran off.
The man was taken to a hospital where he died. No other injuries were reported.
San Diego Humane Society officers arrived at the scene and located two of the dogs who were still loose, organization spokesperson Nina Thompson said. A third dog contained in a car was also impounded.
All three dogs are now in the Humane Society’s custody for mandatory bite quarantine, Thompson said.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
So much for being that man’s best friends…
The attackers were XL Bullies, a larger version of a Pit Bull, and about 30 Americans die a year from dog attacks, with PB’s accounting for 2/3rds of the fatalities.
I’m curious about the number of dog owners attacked by their own dogs.
IMO, It ain’t the dog, it’s the owner.
Well, there’s Police Agent Bretschneider, a secret policeman who repeatedly tries to catch Švejk and others out on their anti-monarchist views. He is eventually eaten by his own dogs, after buying a succession of animals from Švejk in an attempt to incriminate him.
I enjoy how you often reference Svejk. One of the most enjoyable books I have read in the last few years. I was sad when it ended. I wish he would have lived longer to have written about him joining the Russians to fight the empire.
>It ain’t the dog, it’s the owner.
Are you referring to President Biden?
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/04/politics/commander-biden-white-house/index.html
Dog breeds do not account for aggression, human-influenced factors do. You’ve got it out for pit bull breeds, which would just be sad if it wasn’t a pernicious thread of hate among many in our country against the most common (and one of the best) dog “breeds” here.
It appears the liability insurance industry does not view all dog breeds the same risk.
http://Www.fdafb.org
Whenever an insurance company misprices relative risk, another insurance company can learn and possibly profit from this.
Has this occurred in the insurance industry for dog liability insurance?
Better link
https://www.fdafb.org/the-issues/uninsurable-dog-breeds/
Interesting. Off hand I don’t know, but I would observe that some breeds are sought out to be trained as guard dogs, or worse fighting dogs (pit-bulls here). I’m liking this as one contributing factor for your observation.
A friend was horribly mauled by a Pit Bull, i’m sure yours is ‘friendly’ just like the aforementioned cur that nearly killed him.
>K-pop, carols, free food at South Korea impeachment protests Channel News Asia
An impeachment-themed Christmas carol by singer Baek Ja – a slightly tweaked version of the well-known Feliz Navidad – also went viral last week.
“Christmas is merry when Yoon Suk Yeol resigns,” the song’s lyrics go.
I ventured out to several non-food grocery stores looking for a Nativity scene to set up for the Christmas season yesterday but all found was row after row of Santas, reindeers, red candy canes, sleds, plastic holly, snowmen, wreaths, mistletoe, red ribbons, red santa hats, and odd characters that I haven’t a clue on allusion…not one manger, one magi, shepherd boy or sheep to be found. Feliz Navidad song by a Korean K-pop star should not be surprising, but it is disheartening nevertheless.
I can’t think of one religion that is more (mis)appropriated for secular purposes than Christianity. Why not have a Christian Christmas and a secular one on separate dates. That would make more sense to me. If you don’t want to keep Christ in Christmas, then get your own holidays says I. And, K-pop should stick to their bubble gum chewing ways.
Should you dig deeper into why Emperor Constantine decided Christmas should be 25th of December, you may find out most Euro-Levantine non-Christian religions had a festive period of some kind at the darkest time of the year after the harvest/slaughter, when the storage was the fullest.
In late Rome 25th December was the day to celebrate the official deity, Sol Invictus, Sun God. Like most pagan celebrations, it was around very Jesus-like themes of death and rebirth as it is the time on Northern Hemisphere when nature goes to hibernation. A 12th century Syrian bishop wrote that early Christians chose that day precisely because it was already a huge celebration everywhere.
Although it’s very contested, based on the shepherds in Luke, the only seasonal reference in Bible regarding Jesus’ birth places it most likely in springtime.
ps. Santa Claus is, of course, St. Nicholas of Myra, who according to legend was defrocked as bishop because he slapped the heretic Areios during the Council of Nicaea.
How come we all know Santa Claus is bullshit by the time we’re 8, but continue to believe in somebody that always promises to deliver on our hopes & prayers, but never really comes through… unlike the fat guy in the red suit?
Deeply held religious beliefs = upward mobility
Unless you are a fat cat donor and own a politician. Then all your dreams will come true…
I’m no longer a theist, but a god who dependably grants wishes expressed in prayers is more of a genie than a god. Can you imagine how screwed up things would be if there were an omnipotent god serving as the world’s personal shopper? In America, there would be a lobster in every pot and a giant pick-up in every garage.
Realistic non-theists recognize that the cosmos moves along without much regard for our individual wish list. Lao-Tzu declares that the ten thousand things are “straw dogs” as far as heaven and earth are concerned, but the spiritually immature theist clings to the hope that his god finds his “nice” outweighs his “naughty,” rendering him eligible for a “yes” answer to his prayer. The spiritually mature Christian will realize that prayer changes the pray-er, not the realities of the universe.
Thank you. Your sentence Can you imagine how screwed up things would be if there were an omnipotent god serving as the world’s personal shopper? is sadder than its wit, and I did have chuckle. Seems like the west suffers from a lack of spirituality of the brand that involves introspection, and it’s not a leap to link it to “western social malaise” for lack of a better term.
That’s a fine, epigrammatic last line, HMP. Thanks, I have passed your comment on to others. I would add only (ruining the epigram) that in certain instances it also depends on who is doing the praying and in which spiritual state. Being of an experiential rather than a theological bent, I draw no further distinctions and don’t presume to know how the spiritual realities of transmission interact with the material.
“…a god who dependably grants wishes expressed in prayers is more of a genie than a god.”
That reminds me of one of my favorite quotes, which deals with the flipside (well, sort of), the meting out of punishments:
Wouldn’t it be much worse if life were fair, and all the terrible things that happen to us come because we actually deserve them? So now I take great comfort in the general hostility and unfairness of the universe.
—J. Michael Straczynski, American filmmaker and comic book writer (said by Marcus Cole in “A Late Delivery from Avalon,” Babylon Five)
> The spiritually mature Christian will realize that prayer changes the pray-er, not the realities of the universe.
Thank you. I’ve formed the opinion that when prayer is “effective” is it usually because the one praying was changed in ways that motivated him to become involved in finding, or in being, a solution to the problem that occupied his attention. The first chapter of the Old Testament book “Nehemiah” could be cited as a biblical precedent for this view.
I think that this serves as a mild refresher on the classic Dickensian tale of the holiday spirit, and how even the most cold and dark hearted of profit seekers can somehow change.
Granted in this video clip, it’s a parody of how Scrooge awakens from his ghostly visitations to be a now changed member of society. Look out ! Proving that SNL can still find the occasional funny spoof now and then…
https://youtu.be/1ww5p_Gean4?si=LXoPfImpTKNPZ-Mf
I think you are referring to what some call “vending machine Christianity”, and Harold Bloom referred to as “the American Religion” because it would be unrecognizable to people from times as recent as a couple of hundred years ago. We are in the words of Nietzsche and theologians like Gabriel Vahanian (who I had the pleasure of chatting with while a University student), living in the world after the death of god.
Taleb wrote recently that the value of religious practice was in maintaining a shared culture. Our elites, however, seem committed to slicing and dicing people into tiny bits to prevent any sense of shared identity that could lead to collective action. Hilary referred to people as deplorable for, as Obama put it, clinging to their faith.
Religious impulses can have good or bad intent, I think,but so can anti religious impulses. Because people.
For over a thousand years in Europe, if you didn’t believe in the Catholic doctrine you could be tortured and killed. When authorities enforce belief systems like Catholicism for centuries, they tend to hang around. authoritarian societies punish people severely for not believing certain things that justify or excuse a few people ruling over the rest, no matter how silly. These are normal problems in any society where a few people rule over everyone else.
Did you hear that a week or two ago they reckon that they found St. Nicholas’s grave?
https://archaeologymag.com/2024/12/sarcophagus-of-santa-claus-found-in-turkey/
No word if any reindeer bones were found with him in his sarcophagus or not.
After days getting noticeably shorter, why wouldn’t you celebrate when they start getting longer. “If your faith is strong, the sun will come back!”
All the major Christian (Catholic and Orthodox, anyway) festivals are based on the solar calendar. Christmas – Winter Solstice; Easter – Spring equinox; Sacred Heart of Jesus (midsummer) – Summer solstice; and Feast of John the Baptist – Fall equinox. Why? Because these were already well-established pagan festivals that were dressed up with Christian saints and events.
As Tim O’Neill says, “Pagan Christmas, Again”.
europeans merged All Souls day with Day of the Dead here rendering conversion somewhat seamless, along with increasing one’s chances of remaining alive. In a similar manner the Earth Mother became Our Lady of Guadalupe (Mary) resulting in massive traffic jams in Mexican neighborhoods as believers march thru the streets behind dancers and floats.
Yes, and only in America can All Hallows (souls/saints) Eve(ning) be turned into: Hallowe’en, and reason to splurge on candy.
There are. Orthodox Christmas falls 2 weeks after Capitalist Christmas.
It’s really all about the solstice. We’ve been celebrating this festival since at least the neolithic – henges were ritual sites which were also calendars to mark the exact date.
There is something curious about the way Christianity has evolved: in principle, Christianity should be a religion for those who recognize that they have sinned, are seeking forgiveness, but realize that those who wronged them, for various reasons, cannot forgive them. So we believe (believe, not “know”) that God may forgive us for our sins in their stead should we mend our ways. This has been transmogrified to something where people believe that they are entitled to divine forgiveness, so that they can do any wrong they like to whomever they want because they have god in their pocket and he will forgive them (lack of capitalization intentional).
Well, the former is what I (want to) believe anyways. The latter is something that I’ve come to absolutely reject. Unlike many people, the longer I’ve lived, the more I’ve come to believe in a version of Christianity, although, I honestly don’t know if I believe in a God any more–but I think that it is worth believing in a God who may forgive us if we change our ways, not a god who an be juiced for forgiveness or whatever it is that we want on the call whenever we find it convenient.
My understanding is that in early churches people would confess their wrongdoing to the entire congregation, and so hopefully get a sort of community forgiveness. Eventually this evolved into confessing in private to a priest and being forgiven by the Church/God. I think in some early Protestant churches the practice of confessing to the congregation was revived, but I don’t know if any still do that or if it’s now about confessing to God alone (caveat: I’m not a Christian so this is all second-hand).
The original sin of humanity is not knowledge it is belief. Belief is not required to model reality and is mostly an impediment to spiritual growth. God, as a stand in for reality, is pretty much an attempt to substitute something simple (enough for a 5 year old to grasp) for the complexity of existence.
I think it more accurate to say that humanity’s original sin is being a violent primate species. Other primates, notably chimpanzees, are violent and engage in organized warlike acts. I doubt the cause of chimp violence is religious belief.
I suspect that belief, like imagination, had survival benefits for our ancestors. Not everyone saw a shadow and thought predator, just the ones that survived to reproduce.
Well there you said it yourself. Violent behavior is a primate resource, hardly humanity’s original sin. Belief is a particularly human attribute, the result of, as Kurt Vonnigut said, having too big a brain.
As for survival because of belief, it ignores that many who were eaten were alone and exposed. Maybe those who survived were the many who huddled together in fear of imagined threats. The more rare but better equipped who developed proactive practice to confront possible known threats could survive alone. That is those who developed the ability to map reality and take appropriate action instead of reacting in fear would be the evolutionary line I would rather be associated with. I would also note although baboons are individually violent, generally primate violence is a group activity as is belief.
“Why not have a Christian Christmas and a secular one on separate dates.”
Here are two good reasons to do so:
https://youtu.be/gg7uGL6Ku20?si=zilZ-bOMRph0BGiN
Most K-pop and J-pop Christmas takes are along the lines of western pop. But Korea is the land of the ballad, and I have some nice renditions of Ave Maria and O Holy Night by K-pop singers.
Today is Gaudete Sunday in the Catholic and adjacent church liturgical year, a time for joy as we light the rose advent candle.
It is the Christians that misapropriated an older tradition and its festivities…
“Was South Korea’s coup an attempt to restart the Korean War?”
‘Opposition lawmakers are alleging the full scope of President Yoon’s coup involved a months-long plot to trigger a “limited war” with North Korea’
This is crazy if true. How do you have a “limited war” with a nuclear armed nation? What about all that artillery aimed at Seoul ready to level it. Was the US planning to take part in this attack on some bs justification? Unusually for the Biden White House, they have been very silent on the subject of South Korea the past few days – too quiet. Was Biden planning to set the Korean peninsular afire so that it would be one more problem that he could leave for Trump to deal with when he takes office? I would not be surprised as Biden is running around setting as many fires as he can before he leaves office. If he threw a coupla Molotov cocktails into the White House foyer on his way out the door, I would not be surprised.
“I would not be surprised as Biden is running around setting as many fires as he can before he leaves office.”
This appears to be precisely the case. The only prior presidency where this was the case was in the time between Herbert Hoover’s loss of office and the coming of Franklin Roosevelt and the New Deal.
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/30/opinion/30leuchtenburg.html
November 30, 2008
Keep Your Distance
By WILLIAM E. LEUCHTENBURG
Chapel Hill, N.C.
ON election night, Nov. 8, 1932, Herbert Hoover, in the company of friends and neighbors at his home on the Stanford campus, sifted through returns that were rendering a verdict on a presidency begun so hopefully on a March day in 1929. As she observed him — his eyes bloodshot, his face ashen, his expression registering disbelief and dismay — a little girl asked, “Mommy, what do they do to a president to make a man look like Mr. Hoover does?”
The campaign had been brutal. Detroit had to call out mounted police to protect the president from the fury of jobless auto workers chanting “Hang Hoover!”
“I’ve been traveling with presidents since Theodore Roosevelt’s time, and never before have I seen one actually booed with men running out into the streets to thumb their noses at him,” said a Secret Service agent. “It’s not a pretty sight.”
Even so, the returns on election night exceeded Hoover’s worst fears. The president suffered the greatest thrashing up to that point in a two-candidate race in the history of the Republican Party, and his opponent, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, became the first Democrat to enter the White House with a popular majority since Franklin Pierce 80 years earlier.
Two features made his defeat especially galling. One was that he knew the outcome was less an expression of approval for the challenger than a rejection of the incumbent. The other was that, despite being a pariah, he was expected to soldier on for nearly four more months — until March 4, 1933. The 20th Amendment, moving Inauguration Day to January, was close to being ratified but would not take effect until 1937. He was fated to be the last lame-duck president of the old order.
Hoover determined to exploit this interim to salvage his presidency. No sooner had the ballots been counted than he invited Governor Roosevelt to confer with him. The overture gave every appearance of being an exceptionally generous offer to share power with the man who had vanquished him. In fact, it was the first step of a scheme to undo the results of the election. Hoover acted, the historian Frank Freidel later wrote, “as though he felt it was his duty to save the nation, indeed the world, from the folly of the American voters.”
On Nov. 22, Hoover welcomed Roosevelt to the White House. Throughout the meeting, he treated his successor as though he were a thickheaded schoolboy who needed drilling on intransitive verbs. He sought to bully the president-elect into endorsing the administration’s policies at home and abroad, especially sustaining the gold standard at whatever cost. Alert to Hoover’s intent, Roosevelt smiled, nodded, smiled again, but made no commitment. A frustrated Hoover later vowed, “I’ll have my way with Roosevelt yet.” …
William E. Leuchtenburg is the William Rand Kenan, Jr. professor emeritus at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
43’s White House made up stories about stolen keyboards and such. Money was appropriated but never returned.
“Big Brother in the pub”
‘The government have announced that they are going to trial a scheme to allow people to use a form of digital ID held on smartphones for age verification in pubs.’
You just know that it will happen that you will have old age pensioners refused service because they could not verify their age. That sort of bloodymindedness will be built into the roll out of this idea-
‘What’s that? You don’t even know what a smartphone is much less own one, grandpa? Tough luck and get with the program then or no pint for you.’
The poors don’t go to the pub anymore. Five quid for a pint, versus 2 for a half-litre bottle of the same from Tesco.
It’s the same here in the North American Deep South. Going to the Pub, (we do have some here,) or the Bar, is now for the middle class. The prices really are astronomical. Most lower class boozers I see still do the NADS Tradition of buying several cases of beverage on Friday evening. (You have to have some ‘reason’ for that pickup truck bed that goes empty for the rest of the week.)
Here in the North-Eastern Europe we have pubs serving “cheap” lager a tad under 4€ half a liter, and then way, way too many “craft bars” serving cranberry-pineapple-america-pale-ale 10€ for a 0.33 liter.
Can’t get decent ale for any price. And good Belgian can be 25€ a bottle.
Can’t get decent ale for any price. This in the age of IPAs (they travel well). We should construct an exchange. Vermont is swamped with the stuff. Got any wool? We do love the stuff.
I refuse to purchase or drink anyplace that requires me to “show my papers”.
I’m a balding, white haired and bearded, 72 yo. I often have the argument that its purpose is obviously not proof of age.
Of course not. It’s how the barkeep get’s your name because you’re hot or your trouble, or the truly magical combination of the two.
There is the traditional New Orleans ID Card, once accepted everywhere in town: small rectangles of green printed paper. Cash Dollars.
“So nice to see you again Mr. Jackson”
Mr Hamilton, he dead…or at least not seen around here any more.
(Grumble something inflation)
My favorite form of ID!
I don’t know about bars etc, but I think where I live the local 7/11 and possibly other stores have to verify and maybe record the age of whoever they sell alcohol to. The 7/11 was fined a couple of times for selling to underage people and now they card everybody.
It’s usually the insurer who “requires” this. Remember, it’s the FIRE sector that controls most consumer.habits. I have no problem carding someone ambiguous.
Quick: We all know that Ben Franklin is on the $100. Without looking, who is the non-president on the ten dollar bill?
Here in the good ol’ USA, more and more stores are requiring ID to buy alcohol. Fine and dandy but I’m nearing 80. They still won’t sell it to me without ID> My plan is, because I have a fair amount of free time, is to go to a random store, fill a grocery cart full of odd and small stuff: lip stick, hand soap, crackers, pencils, magazines……….
and in the bottom of the cart will be a beer. “Sorry miss but we need to see your ID, store policy.” After wasting their time for a bit by demanding to speak to a supervisor I’ll say “Re-stock it then”. The last great act of defiance.
A gentle reminder that “miss” is likely under surveillance and will lose her job by acting outside the rules.
(tosses two pennies in the coffee can next to the register).
To the general conversation I would add that, here in the US the insurance industry has/had been the driver behind national policy on everything related to the service of alcoholic beverages these last 30-40 years in an effort to stem/limit liability payouts. This was not really controversial, you might even view it as beneficial to all. Now that there’s money and prosecution futures in behavioral data we can expect policies to be invasive, restrictive, and curiously ill fitted for commerce.
LOL! I’ve done this on occasion. I was once carded for pipe cleaners. The “register” required ID for tobacco related products.
The only Toronado in Cali that I was aware of was my daddy-o’s 1969 Olds, which I remember being quite the lemon, that is on occasion when it wasn’t in the shop.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yv8z7jx70o
Pardon Tonight, to the tune of the Eagles hit song, Heartache Tonight…I will grant my lyrical efforts can pale in the light of the day versus the quite crafty wordsmith amongst us here!
Somebody’s gonna pardon someone
Before the year is through
Somebody’s sentence is gonna be undone
There’s nothing Americans can do
Everybody wants to punch somebody
Especially those from the MAGA right
Everybody wants to take a punchers chance
And make those pardons not sound alike
There’s gonna be a pardon tonight
A pardon tonight we know
There’s gonna be a pardon tonight
Just like Moses said to pharoah
Just let mah people go
Please just let ’em go…
“Georgia’s turmoil deepens as ex-footballer named president” Nice examples of propaganda like – “the increasingly authoritarian ruling party” (Georgian Dream) and the ex-footballer selected as MP “was the only candidate for the job.” You mean like Kamala Harris was the only candidate selected for the job? Or Biden? The blob must be so pissed that it’s usual methods at regime change haven’t work yet against Georgian Dream. But the blob did score a home run in Syria. Maybe the blob needs to do a Syria against Georgia Dream.
It is only the first inning in Syria.
Patrick Lancaster has been doing a series of videos about the Georgian protests, his latest seems to be over 2 hours long. I haven’t watched it, but it seems to be a series of interviews with young people in Tbilisi.
https://youtube.com/@patricklancasternewstoday
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 Calculated Risk
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
After surrendering manufacturing to China, we had 2 things left that they couldn’t undercut us on, real estate and MIC weaponry-so we went with our strengths, and here we are on the edge of the abyss, looking down.
Looking down on a tourist based economy populated by us groveling for tips, sustenance, meaning, and looking for the door.
Because I gotta be me,
‘Cause you’re caught like a clown
In a circle of strangers
Who do you screw to get out of this place.
Kris Kristofferson, rest in peace.
One for the Money
The 15 largest economies by real GDP:
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/October/weo-report?c=223,924,132,134,532,534,536,158,546,922,112,111,&s=PPPGDP,PPPSH,&sy=2000&ey=2024&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1
October 15, 2024
China ( 37,732)
United States ( 29,168)
India ( 16,020)
Russia ( 6,909)
Japan ( 6,572)
Germany ( 6,017)
Brazil ( 4,702)
Indonesia ( 4,658)
France ( 4,359)
United Kingdom ( 4,282)
Italy ( 3,598)
Turkey ( 3,457)
Mexico ( 3,303)
Korea ( 3,258)
Canada ( 2,582)
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/October/weo-report?c=223,924,132,134,532,534,536,158,546,922,112,111,&s=PPPGDP,PPPSH,&sy=2000&ey=2024&ssm=0&scsm=1&
October 15, 2024
China in 2024 is 29.4% larger in real GDP than the United States
37,732 – 29,168 = 8564
8564 / 29,168 = 29.4%
China in 2024 is 34.5% larger in real GDP than the European Union
37,732 – 28,044 = 9688
9688 / 28,044 = 34.5%
re: American cops are using AI to draft police reports, and the ACLU isn’t happy The Register
The police writing inaccurate reports may not not necessarily a bad thing for the defense. When I plug my own name into ChatGPT I can hardly believe what it comes up with, it’s so far off the mark about so much. If any of it were to be used in a police report it would be incredibly easy to refute in court, would completely invalidate officer testimony.
On the other hand, I can see how AI could be used to correct for any biases that SHOULD come through in the police report, should be scruitized in a court. “Based on what you’ve written in your report, it doesn’t appear you had probable cause. When you say ‘The suspect, a Black male, was found loitering in an area known for gang activity’, the suspect being Black or being in the area is not relevant to anything and not probable cause.”
On the other other hand, it might be a useful training tool for pointing out such bias and prejudice, given such training is apparently beyond most police department’s abilities.
And another way AI could help it might be useful to teach police officers to read and write, basic literacy. Bonus if it teaches them the basics of law! Not such a bonus if AI actually gets the law woefully wrong…
Here’s more concise data on Detections of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Mammals put out by the USDA.
In Michigan, the virus has spread to small mammals and cats as far back as April and May 2024. Cats are at risk from contact with other cats (feral) and mice that live in the wild and find their way indoors.
Here’s more about the virus in cat populations
https://sph.umd.edu/news/researcher-warns-pet-cats-risk-getting-bird-flu-and-possibly-infecting-people
Another good reason everyone should keep their adorable wildlife murder machines indoors.
‘Do we exist?’ A robot news site shadows a Northwest town The Seattle Times
I’m more inclined to think an Oregonian is orchestrating this, someone local or close to the area, rather than China.
Many non-technical people don’t realize how easy it is to conduct activities like this and appear to come from out of country. In my uni days we used multiple layered shell accounts from all over the world to cover our tracks, make it difficult to trace, but also precisely so we could appear to be from anywhere. It was a lot of fun to join a chat from Antarctica, for example, or Christmas Island.
But I’m struck by the fact that the lawyers seem to be actively discouraging pursuing or investigating it further by blaming China. That is rather interesting to me.
Also, it has an seeming ignorance or disregard for the human and legal aspects, e.g. these journalists are still alive, there are actually people in this Oregonian town, there is copyright and trademark here, which we’ve seen has been somewhat typical of the OpenAI sorts. If this is an experiment, it rather “fits” the types of movers and shakers in the AI world, has their signature behaviour on it.
Does anyone doubt that the FBI is using a variant of Israel’s “Lavender” AI to track “Potential Terrorists” ?
Or that those who have been tracked attending Anti Genocide rallies are being labelled “Terrorist Sympathizers”?
Keep in mind that the Fibbies infiltrated the League of Women Voters looking for RUSSIAN AGENTS !!! during the 1970’s and that neither Cointelpro or Total Information Awareness went away.
These days we have the censorship industrial complex doing its best to ensure that the populace is not exposed to bad thoughts, I expect those efforts to increase dramatically over the next few years.
The cop cars may have “To Protect and serve” in big letters on their side, but they don’t mention what they protect, or who they serve, for very good reasons.
I think Lavender algorithm is too simple for FBI; if you live in West Bank or Gaza, or all your grandparents were born in Palestine, you’re a terrorist-suspect.
I regularly have coffee at Kiskadee Coffee, which is mentioned in the article about local news (“Haunted by Ghost Papers”), and actually started a substack to fill the local news void about 18 months prior to the Plymouth Independent’s start-up. I am friendly with its editor, and I welcome its addition to the local news scene, especially since it can do things as a full-time newspaper that I — a person for whom local independent long-form journalism is a “side hustle” in the parlance of our age — just cannot do.
That said, we do have some differences of emphasis and viewpoint, but notwithstanding these differences, I think it is absolutely imperative for both Plymouth itself and her neighboring towns (it is also the County seat, the Shire Town, where the local hospital and the district court, inter alia, are located) to have a regular newspaper.
(My own publication is more like a magazine than a newspaper proper; I call it a newsletter, and it’s styled after the 18th c. pamphlets I love as an academic historian of early New England.)
Now, it is only a small step from there to ‘Committees of Correspondence.’ Hold high the torch of freedom.
First step of the American Revolution!
#TorchBros
Committees of Correspondence are never far from my mind.
Without excessively flattering myself, I do think the increase in local digital journals/newspapers has been good for local democracy (e.g., the moving cause for which I started the Substack was a basically surreptitious attempt by predatory casino developers to sneak a casino/horse track into town without the people realizing such a thing was being done. Our side of the question, against the predatory casino developers, won by 88-12% when it was put on the ballot.).
“All politics is local” is true no matter your outlook, affiliation, or philosophy. Local politics supply concrete results.
Kudos to you and to all those who labour for the Common Good.
Rack one up for the good guys. A predatory casino developer defeated at the ballot box? Who knew that democracy still works. I salute you, sir.
F Yeah, Swamp Yank!
COVID brain damage?
An Epidemic of Vicious School Brawls, Fueled by Student Cellphones (NY Times via archive.ph)
So I try not to automatically associate any aberrant behavior with the consequences of SARS2 infection, but I think it is always worth at least considering. In some cases, like worker absences and record student and teacher absences, it is impossible to ignore. In other areas, like an increase in colon cancer among the young, the trend was already increasing prior to 2020, so COVID might be an accelerant, it or might have no impact at all in this. We don’t know.
Regardless, we know enough after 5 years to state resolutely that infection with SARS2 is bad, that repeat infection is worse, and that each infection brings with it the possibility of damage to one or more organs.
A family friend who is in High School tells me with a frightening regularity about random fights in his public school. He even takes videos of them and shows me sometimes.
It makes my stomach turn with uneasiness.
He thinks it’s cool of course and wants a gun and wants to punch people.
It’s been quite a chore telling this young man how dangerous all this is and to ignore those bad friends.
I know you are in New Orleans, and wonder if this behaviour is in Public School or Private School. I have been hearing stories from extended family of increasing violence in the so called “better Private Academies” of late.
This could be a society wide trend.
Which raises the question; is this arising from Covid, or perhaps social pressures arising from crowding, maybe both? I would like to see serious studies on brain changes caused or accelerated by the Coronavirus. A society wide loss of personal self control would be catastrophic to “Modern Civilization.”
Stay safe all.
Here is an image of a “coverage denied” letter someone got from their insurance company.
https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/1hevfwy/health_insurance_denied/
I found this gem buried in the reddit thread:
Here’s a video called ” close-up of drone from an airplane”. I believe it is one of those mystery drones.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/1hel9h3/close_up_of_drone_from_airplane/
What would happen if too many citizens to arrest them all or kill them all were to meet one of these drones with swarms of kamikaze drones of their own?
One flew/hovered over my friend’s house in Richmond, VA last night. He got a picture or two. Had one red light and one green light.
I saw a similar drone at night here on Oahu several months ago. It had red and green lights similar to a plane, but it was hovering and I could hear the motor noise, which sounded like a louder version of the noise hobby drones make, quite different from a conventional aircraft. Maybe the FAA or somebody requires drones flying at night to have those lights (IIRC called anti-collision)? Seems odd that an unauthorized or spy drone operator would bother complying with government regs but who knows what they really are.
No transponders or ADS-B to go with the navigation lights? Granted, too low and ADS-B doesn’t reach a receiver.
FAA Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Regulations (Part 107)
This morning’s CBC Radio 1 national program has an item about the switch from buttons to screens for controlling various devices: https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-57-the-sunday-magazine/clip/16115981-what-push-pull-relationship-buttons-reveals
Despite noting that consumers are pushing back against the growing dominance of screens, nowhere in the item does anyone consider the safety risks of distraction-by-screen in vehicles. And what if the risks of distraction get compounded by cognitive impairment resulting from repeated COVID infections?
I’m definitely treating my 2010 Toyota well, and hope to keep it on the road as long as possible – all buttons & dials!
Thanks, I forgot that was on.
LOL
As Ambassador, Rahm Emanuel Says His Impatience Nudged Japan Forward
Doing his part to get us into a hot war with China, no doubt.
An especially vicious political figure all through, beyond a mere neo-conservative.
After all, the Japanese invaded China in 1931 to begin the World War. The Japanese were responsible for about 20 million deaths in China, and while many Japanese veterans have travelled to China to atone, the Japanese leadership has never atoned. So for Rahm Emanuel to spend years in Japan, provoking hatred of China, is beyond forgiveness.
appropo of nada, but Taylor Lorenz says TikTok is dead “A lot of people seem to be in deep denial about the TikTok ban, which is set to go into effect in about a month. I had Louise Matsikas on my podcast Power User to break down the state of TikTok and why the U.S. is really banning the app (newsflash: it’s not about protecting our data from China).”
“During his speech in parliament, Prime Minister Dorin Recean assured citizens that Russia’s plan to destabilise the Republic of Moldova will not succeed.”
So Ukraine cuts the gas and Russia is to blame, eh?! Heck, wasn’t Scholtz that blamed the Russians for stopping the flow of gas after the pipleines were blown by the Americans…? If that lie was ok, why are we to criticize the poor Moldovan schmuk?
Has Foreign Affairs always been this close to Mad Magazine?
The Price Of Russian Victory article seemed like a parody of a Rand study and seems almost totally devoid of reality. I believe I was laughing so hard at times that I scared my cat.
This part , in particular, had me breaking out in wild laughter.
With the Ukrainian Army under its domain, the Kremlin would have hundreds of thousands of additional highly trained, skilled, battle tested soldiers which it could press into service. It could also conscript the millions of Ukrainians whom Kyiv has not mobilized.
The author seems to have lost touch with reality, missed what has happened to the Ukrainian military forces since January 24, 2022 and has no knowledge of Ukrainian demographics.
There is no one left to conscript. We are almost at the stage of “Will the last person leaving Ukraine blow out that last candle?”
I keep shaking my head and telling myself that people who write opinion pieces like this or describe the imminent bankruptcy of Russia really don’t believe this; then I think, my God I really think they do believe this.
I don’t know, the closest thing I’ve read about is the Qing Dynasty in the 1860s and ’70s not realizing that they were no longer a major world power and that the British and the French and any other vulture is going to be picking over the bones of the country. It seems to be the same level of inability to realize that the world has changed.
Here’s an article about an early-rising tide of fundraising for The Adjuster’s legal defense expenses, and how Mainstream Platforms are keeping it off whereas Side Stream Platforms are letting them on.
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/internet/gofundme-pulls-luigi-mangione-fundraisers-another-platform-featuring-o-rcna184044
re: RU vs. NATO via Martyanov
Recently Yves quoted “DUNE”.
Yesterday Martyanov did: “He who can destroy a thing, has the real control of it”
Here an excerpt from that same post intended as a correction to a conversation between Larry Johnson and Alex Christoforou. which is imbeddded in below link.
Christoforou apparently suggested the Mediterranean is NATO-controlled now. Martyanov, of course, contradicts:
“(…)
For all my deep respect for Alex, here are some important points one has to consider and I will be blunt.
1. Russians don’t give a flying coitus about having sway anywhere–Greece, Germany or the US. Russia is not USSR and is not interested in the International Worker’s Movement or International Socialist (and Communist) Movement. Russians don’t give a fuck about being loved or respected in EU. Europe is Russia’s existential enemy. Russia is strictly transactional–wanna do business? Fine. If you don’t, well, feel free to find better deals elsewhere. Russians DO NOT buy all this crap about cultural “closeness”, or common “Orthodox root” and shit like that–everybody has their price, look what $5 billion buys one in 404. Tsipras government demonstrated to Russians everything they needed to know about Greece. Tourism and a few Russophile clubs here and there in the EU are just that–clubs with negligible impact.
2. As Paul Atreidis stated in Dune: “He who can destroy a thing, has the real control of it”. Soviet/Russian projection of power was always NOT about bombing the shit out of locals–this is the American idea of “projection of power”. Russian idea in Med since post WW II was about a) Shipping Lanes Of Communication (SLOC) and free movement of commodities between USSR/Russia and her clients, b) to prevent the Med’s flank from resupplying NATO forces in case of WW III. And here is the issue:
3. Alex speaks from the POV of how NATO people think, that is the problem, because–this is the thinking from the XX century school of geopolitics, which ignores completely a simple XXI century fact that Russia can sink ANY combination of the NATO Fleets, including any number of the US Navy’s Carrier Battle Groups from Gibraltar to Bosporus and NATO can do nothing about it. Zero, zilch. Combined West is simply stuck in the 1980-90s military thinking and technology.
A single frigate of Gorshkov-class with a single pr. 885 Yasen-class SSGN can, in a single salvo of 4 3M22Zircon each destroy two US Navy Carrier Battle Groups–none of those CBGs will know what hit them. Moreover, what is also missing from this outdated POV is the fact of a term which Vladimir Putin and Russian military professionals saying about Oreshnik–read attentively–it is a HIGH PRECISION weapons. That means that Oreshnik’s hypersonic maneuvering blocks with the range of 5,500 kilometers can hit any types of targets on the land or in the sea. NATO navies, including US Navy’s CBG can huff and puff, can simulate Alfa-strikes but all this is for naught because since roughly 2018 there is no NATO “lake” in Med with or without Russian bases there, because all of those navies are nothing more than fat prestigious defenseless targets. What matters most, those who are not completely brainwashed in NATO navies know this. And this is why any attempt to sabotage Russian commercial activity supported by Russian Armed Forces can start with the demonstration of sinking some Euro-chihuahua ship, say French or Spanish FFG as a warning.
(…)”.
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/12/about-power-projection.html
p.s. in his reading RUs are now relocating to Libya.
A song about one of our latest tragedies — this time, focusing on the hero being crowned in our money-stream media:
Prettified Brian Thompson
Well, gather ’round me, children, a story I will tell
About Prettified Brian Thompson — he was cleaned up oh, so well.
‘Twas in midtown Manhattan, on a Wednesday morning cold,
The investors’ annual meeting UHC did plan to hold.
Now, his spotless reputation as a businessman was abused —
Of some rude insider training Brian Thompson was accused.
But from billions of UHC profits he only took a share —
And as “family man” and “colleague” he collected praises rare.
Still, insurance was his industry and health care was the field,
So it may be no surprise his flaws as “human” stand revealed —
And the tales are sad and many of the families put in need,
Of the mortgages defaulted and the wages garnisheed.
It was just outside the Hilton, not long before Christmas day,
That a bullet stopped that CEO short of another chance to
“You say that I’m a scofflaw, and my company’s a thief —
Well, here’s some claim denials; give the families no relief.”
If through Bizland you ramble, you’ll make enemies and friends —
But an outlaw’d never kill you with “Delay, Deny, Defend”. . . .
As through this life you travel, you’ll meet some villains vile —
Some might slay you with a six-gun, some’ll do it with an Excel file.
(Lyrics patterned after the examples of several performances: Woody Guthrie, Bob Dylan, Melanie Safka — take your pick. . . .)
(Drat. Line 2 of verse 4 is incomplete; it should finish with “of another chance to *say*:” . . .)
Is there a Purchasing ACA Healthcare dot gov policy “For Dummies” type of book or article? acasignups has some good info.
In particular, I would like to know how a catastropic emergency room visit works. Catastrophic, possibly-bankrupting costs are the primary reason for insurance in general (including auto insurance, etc). In my view 12+ months of expenses Emergency Fund in I Bonds Savings Bonds is my “insurance” for smaller unknown expenses.
The “Silver” policy I am considering has Emergency Room Care, both In-Network and Out of Network at $200/10%. Deductible is $0, Out Of Pocket Max $1500.
Example, an auto accident that cost $100K in medical procedures, early in January such that I have not done ANY other medical expenses in the calendar year.
Does thi mean I pay $200, then 10% of the $100K cost, but since the Out of Pocket Max is $1500, my total bill is $1500, and not $10200?
PS – signing up at healthcare dot gov is bewildering, I feel I am likely getting robbed via “Baffle Ya With BS”. I think/daydream “to hell with this process, I need a Canadian wife to escape this process!”