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Links 12/16/2024

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How ‘the mother of all bubbles’ will pop FT. The deck: “It’s time to bet against American exceptionalism.”

Climate

Dozens of luxury condos, hotels in Miami sinking at ‘unexpected’ rates, new study reveals Miiami Herald

Ice-free Arctic Ocean could occur within years BNE Intellinews

* * *

Russian Discovery of a 511 Billion-Barrel Oil Reserve in Antarctica: Major Climatic and Geopolitical Implications WECB

US scientists probe potentially massive energy source buried deep underground — and it has potential to power the globe for thousands of years The Cooldown

* * *

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): A Critical Analysis, with a Focus on Agriculture, Land, and Food National Farmers Union

Wyoming research challenges benefits, highlights pitfalls of mowing and spraying sagebrush Wyofile

ICJ weighs legal responsibility for climate change, ‘future of our planet’ Al Jazeera

Syndemics

California: CDFA Announces Another Recall of H5 Contaminated Raw Milk Avian Flu Diaryd

Water

Researchers have developed a way to break down long-lasting PFAS compounds using light PBS

China?

Capitalist reforms and extreme poverty in China: unprecedented progress or income deflation? New Political Economy. Commentary:

China Races to Squelch Unrest as Signs of Economic Malaise Spread WSJ. Commentary:

China stretches lead over Greece as world’s largest shipowning nation Splash247

China’s hypersonic jumbo jet prototype hits Mach 6 in Gobi Desert test flight South China Morning Post

Where Are Southeast Asia’s ‘Cosmopolitan’ Leaders? The Diplomat

The Koreas

South Korea court begins Yoon’s impeachment trial process BBC

India

Infosys founder calls for 70-hour work week – again – claiming it creates jobs The Register

Kho kho reborn The Print

Africa

Cylcone Chido barrels though Mayotte, affects Madagascar and the Comoros Africa News. Commentary:

Syraqistan

Postwar development of offshore energy resources: Legal and political models for developing the Gaza Marine gas field Leiden Journal of International Law

Israel approves plan to surge settler population in occupied Golan Heights Al Jazeera

* * *

Israel drops ‘earthquake bomb’: Colossal explosion ‘so big it registered on the Richter scale’ hits Syrian coast as air strikes target weapons depots after fall of Assad regime Daily Mail

How ex-Daesh and al-Qaeda leader al-Jolani became West’s blue-eyed boy in Syria PressTV

After euphoria of Assad’s fall, Syrians face daunting challenge of rebuilding Aleppo France24

* * *

Gaza’s libraries will rise from the ashes AL Jazeera

New Not-So-Cold War

Ukraine as a late capitalism war Davide Maria De Luca, DMD. The deck: “Why is the fancy mall lit up during a blackout?” Fascinating. Well worth a read.

* * *

Trump’s team studies ways to permanently end Russia’s war against Ukraine – Trump’s future advisor Ukrainska Pravda

Ukraine will have to lose territories for sake of peace – Slovak president Ukrainska Pravdad

The Ukrainian Black Hole Gathers the Storm of World War III Gordon Hahn, Russian and Eurasian Politics

Farewell to Utopia? Elections in Georgia and Moldova as a Marker of Public Demand for Stability Valdai Discussion Club

Trump Transition

Hegseth to release sexual misconduct accuser from non-disclosure agreement, Lindsey Graham says Politico

Trump’s team comments on Orbán’s idea of a Christmas truce in Ukraine Ukrainska Pravda

Trump taps Richard Grenell as envoy for ‘special missions’ Anadolu Agency

Trump’s Silicon Valley advisers have AI ‘censorship’ in their crosshairs TechCrunch

Trump’s Worldview Isn’t as Unpredictable as You Think Bloomberg

Republican Funhouse

Top Leonard Leo Lieutenant Leads ALEC Bootcamp Against “Woke” Capitalism Exposed by CMD

What is the Future of the Federalist Society? CIvitas Institute

Legal Theory Lexicon: Deontology Legal Theory Blog

Antitrust

Monopoly Round-Up: FTC Revives the “Magna Carta of Small Business” Matt Stoller, BIG. Important.

Our Famously Free Press

CNN launches investigation into claims Clarissa Ward’s Assad jail rescue was fake Daily Mail

Scandal deepens around CNN’s Clarissa Ward staging Syria prison scene The Grayzone

Digital Watch

Revolut backers offload almost $1bn of stock FT

Zeitgeist Watch

In the Rockets’ Red Glare Harper’s. The deck: “The past and future of hot-rodding in America.”

Xmas Pre-Game Festivities

It’s Tough Work Being a Temporary Santa JSTOR Daily

Small businesses say cautious shoppers are seeking ‘cozy’ and ‘festive’ this holiday season AP

Mystery Drones

Joe Rogan admits he’s ‘genuinely concerned’ about New Jersey drones after expert revealed terrifying theory Daily Mail. See Theory #3 at NC here.

New Jersey’s drone mystery solved by statistics! Kevin Drum

Schumer calls on U.S. agencies to use advanced technology to identify mysterious drones PBS

Imperial Collapse Watch

The Three-Dollars Problem FT

Guillotine Watch

Someone is buying up a historic coastal city. Is it the next California Forever? San Francisco Chronicle

Class Warfare

SF tech startup Scale AI, worth $13.8B, accused of widespread wage theft SFGATE

Seven Deadly Sins by Guy Leschziner review – the biology of human frailty Guardian

Are you a morning person? You may be a Neanderthal descendant WaPo

The Silurian Hypothesis: It was the Cephalopods Pacificklaus

Antidote du jour ():

Bonus antidote:

Douhble bonus antidote:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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134 comments

  1. Antifa

    Oil Ain’t Free
    (melody borrowed from Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree  by Johnny Marks, as sung by Brenda Lee, 1958)

    Dirty deeds in the Middle East
    Where the bloodshed doesn’t stop
    Three different faiths professing peace
    But with lots of agitprop

    East of the Nile, catastrophe
    Seems to swallow everything
    Wars that some say are justified
    To slow oil sales to Beijing

    We do lots of monumental stealing every year
    Everyone plays as Svengali—load up for another volley

    Missiles and bombs and IED’s, death on every side each day
    If you’re paid mercenarily you can earn some damn good pay

    (musical interlude)

    Profits from these oil wells are appealing over here
    Pirates want the oil you’re hauling—chopping heads is so appalling

    Nothing here can be guaranteed
    It’s a rolling triple play
    Everyone here’s consumed by greed
    When the sun comes up each day

  2. The Rev Kev

    “Are you a morning person? You may be a Neanderthal descendant.”

    Nope. Not his little black duck. I have to fight my way out of bed each morning. Maybe that is why Neanderthals are no longer with us. Homo sapiens kept on getting woken by the early rising Neanderthals so put an end to them so that they could finally get to sleep in.

      1. .human

        My “naked” loads about 4am every morning. By the time Links is up, I’ve slept another sleep cycle or two ;-)

    2. Ann Uumelmahaye

      You’ve reminded me of an old counter to a classic proverb:

      “The early worm gets eaten.”

      1. farmboy

        you can run, but you can’t hide! so I find myself leaving NakedCap on dating websites as a either an opener or goodbye, didn’t see that coming!

    3. t

      Good theory, but I see no advantage in for a small social group with everyone on the same sleep schedule.

      Being active as soon as the sun rises is a good plan during seasons with short days, I suppose. But someone still has to be up during the night to deal with infants and keep fires going (isn’t the current view that they used fire but lacked the Boy Scout skill to start fire?)

      I’ve never slept in a cave, but I suspect caves are quiet places to sleep.

      Personally, I get up at first light to walk dogs… and then go back to bed.

      1. IEL

        Some people think teenagers’ sleep schedules are optimized for being the night watch for the larger group. Or possibly it is to be better able to take care of babies at night. Or both could be true to some degree.

    4. Wukchumni

      …are you now or have you ever been a Neanderthal?

      Angled cheekbones: check
      Prominent brow ridges: check
      Broader joints: check
      More robust build: check
      Live in a forested landscape: check

      1. JP

        And maybe the elevator doesn’t quite reach the top floor. Typical primate behavior would suggest we ate the males then screwed the females before eating them. Obviously a few escaped cus I undoubtedly have a Neanderthal grandma somewhere in the wood pile.

  3. Trees&Trunks

    Trying to be locally aware I shed a lot of crocodile tears for the sinking luxury condos and hotels. I hope one can also count on Florida and Miami public or taxpayer money not being used to bail-out the owners of these luxury condos and hotels.

    1. Zagonostra

      Ever since the Miami Surfside condominium collapse back in ’21, I’ve heard some friends who own condos complain about how they are being hit with “special assessments.” A friend who lives near Jupiter Inlet showed me her part of replacing the roof tiles came to almost $20K. it’s not a “luxury condo,” just a simple 3/2 off Federal Hgway. The odd thing is the roof tiles looked in good shape, nothing a high-pressure washing wouldn’t fix to my untrained eye.

      I suspect, these “luxury condos” will have some public tax money spent, since there constituents are better connected.

    3. Fritz

      “It’s unclear what the implications are…”
      The implications are it will be good for the country’s GDP.

  4. Wukchumni

    It’s beginning to look a lot like capitulation
    Everywhere you go
    Take a look at Syrian arms blowing up, it’s glistening once again
    With explosives & incendiaries that glow

    It’s beginning to look a lot like capitulation
    Ploys in every sphere
    But the scariest sight to see is the collapse that will be
    On your own leaders front door

    A pair of galoots like Joe & Antony and an ATACMS that shoots
    Is the wish of Volodymyr, and soon!
    Detractors that wont talk and will hopefully go for a long walk
    Is the hope of Macron and Yoon
    And Mom and Dad can hardly wait for a new regime to start again

    It’s beginning to look a lot like capitulation
    Everywhere you go
    There’s unrest in Bucharest, and in Seoul as well
    It’s the sturdy kind that doesn’t mind taking over the show

    It’s beginning to look a lot like capitulation
    Soon the tells will start
    And the thing that’ll make ’em zing is the replacements
    Taking over their part

    It’s beginning to look a lot like capitulation
    Surprises in store
    But the regime change to see is the eviction notice that will be
    On your own leaders front door

    Sure, it’s capitulation once more

    1. ChrisFromGA

      Welcome to “free” Syria, where your country is so free that a foreign neighbor can bomb it with impunity and take territory with no pushback from the ostensible ruling coalition.

  6. Zagonostra

    >Russian Discovery of a 511 Billion-Barrel Oil Reserve in Antarctica: Major Climatic and Geopolitical Implications WECB

    For decades, Antarctica has been seen as a “global commons,” a place where nations agreed to set aside territorial disputes in favor of scientific research. But with the discovery of such vast resources, the question arises: can these agreements hold in the face of such temptations?

    The world will be watching closely as Russia, China, and other countries navigate the tension between economic gain and environmental preservation.

    I don’t know if the world is “closely” watching what is going on, I don’t think the article’s concern for the environment is all that is at play here. It’s geopolitical maneuvering, the “world” didn’t make much of an issue when the Nord stream pipeline caused one the worst, if not worst, release of gas into the atmosphere.

    1. Christopher Smith

      All of the talk about climate change in the West is just that: talk. When you look at the behavior, you can see that we really don’t care about climate change and probably won’t until its too late. Russia and China are just doing what we are without the BS.

    2. PlutoniumKun

      What the article doesn’t say is that the Russian discovery is in the part of the Antarctic claimed by Britain (nobody takes these claims particularly seriously).

      its been known there are extensive hydrocarbons in the Weddell Sea since the 1970’s, when the area was first subject to deep sea drilling for scientific purposes. There is an extensive area of potentially hydrocarbon rich basin extending south from Chile. Plus, there was a lot of marine deposition in the basin in more recent geological times that could have resulted in oil bearing geology.

      But the Russian survey seems to have been seismic only, and this cannot provide the level of information required to assess if an oil/gas bearing rock can be successfully exploited. Most likely they just identified a huge area of organic rich material at sufficient depth that it could have lots of hydrocarbons – but you need a lot of other geological factors at work to make it exploitable. Past attempts to extract oil and gas from deep sea areas far from any potential pipeline have failed.

      The lack of fuss made about this strongly indicates to me that nobody – Russian or British – takes this seriously as an economic reserve. Its just a geological curiosity. Plus, existing treaties prohibit all exploitation and it would be extremely difficult to get agreement on extracting it.

    3. pjay

      Drill baby drill! Let’s go get our oil! We have budding WWIII conflicts on every other continent, why not this one?

      As an added bonus, maybe our search for hydrocarbon salvation will help break off a Delaware-sized iceberg this time in honor of the retirement of Ol’ Joe.

    4. Kouros

      Under how many thousands of meters of ice are those deposits located?

      Russia has problems developing infrastructure to access its resources on its territory, never mind starting something in the Antarctic.

      However, this story reminds of a 1950s scare. In the race to the Moon, US Military were afraid that Russians will take over the moon…

  7. DJG, Reality Czar

    Pilkington and Taleb: Fun with bar charts.

    The bar chart does not show what they seem to think it shows. If EU stands for EU as a whole, what are Germany and France doing off to the side?

    But let’s assume that the EU bar means EU without Germany or France. Putting Germany and France back into the EU would place the EU as the largest economy in the world, at 38.42.

    Bar charts are already the weakest form of statistical display and are easily abused.

    I’ll just describe the bar chart succinctly: It’s chart junk.

    1. Frank Dean

      In this case the labels on the chart are exactly correct as your own calculation revealed. The EU is obviously not responsible for 38% of world output.

    2. Expat2uruguay

      Or we could assume that the EU means all of the EU including France and Germany, which are just shown separately as well.
      What I don’t understand is why India is called the third largest economy, but is clearly the fourth bar. But honestly I found the whole presentation undecipherable.

      2. PlutoniumKun

        GDP is a notoriously inaccurate way to measure real wealth between countries – you need only compare different figures produced by different sources to see the hugely divergent estimates of the GNP of different countries. Its particularly useless when it comes to comparing countries of differing stages of development. Even adjusting for prices (PPP) has its own anomalies which makes it of dubious use for anything except very basic comparisons over long time periods (currency fluctuations alone can result in annual comparisons being very misleading). Even the inventor of GDP, Simon Kuznets didn’t think it was much use for comparing countries. Its only used in the absence of anyone coming up with anything better. As Kuznets said in 1937:

        Economic welfare cannot be adequately measured unless the personal distribution of income is known. And no income measurement undertakes to estimate the reverse side of income, that is, the intensity and unpleasantness of effort going into the earning of income. The welfare of a nation can, therefore, scarcely be inferred from a measurement of national income as defined above.

        The link above that tweet today (the article in New Political Economy) is actually quite interesting on this point using simple monetary outputs is a very poor measurement of human welfare. One obvious problem (among many), is that ‘poorer’ countries have a lot of unmeasured activity (subsistence farming, for example), which can lead to a gross overestimate of wealth being created as it transitions to a cash economy.

    1. Zagonostra

      The notion that babies are born with this indelible stain, the residue of Adam’s fall in Eden, can seem one of the most pernicious features of Christian dogma

      Only if you lack a hermeneutically nuanced view. As far back as the Middle ages, there was an exegetical approach known as the four fold interpretation of scripture: Literal, allegorical, moral, anagogical. More recently, I think Henri de Lubac, covered this approach to scripture in one of his books whose title eludes me right now…you also find in Heidegger the notion of “fallenness” that has a similar understanding of original sin in a secular flavor.

      1. Polar Socialist

        …and only in Western Church theology. Most of the church opposed Augustine’s ideas for several centuries. Eastern Church still calls it “Adam’s sin” and it’s not inherited.

    1. pjay

      Why? Blatant propaganda has not stopped the Pulitzer committee in the past.

      I’m waiting for Erdogan and Bibi sharing the Nobel Peace Prize.

      1. Norton

        The NY Times has a few of those to lend, as the original recipients are, or should be, too embarrassed to acknowledge them. ;p

  10. farmboy

    article re Sagebrush, I’m distributing to my conservation contacts. Post wildland fire there is always a reduction in sage and return of grasses first, benefits to grazing and native grasses and almost always cheatgrass explodes, but a shift in habitat, always devastating to the sage niche. replanting or adding sage in CRP contracts has been a hard pill to swallow for landowners, but becoming more acceptable. Your tax dollars at work,sarc!

    1. MT_Wild

      I know the Wyoming approach to “decadent sagebrush” has been a point of contention for a long time. But looking at the photos of the mowing it really doesn’t look that bad. And the songbird response isn’t surprising if it’s only looking at the mowed areas in the short term.

      Assuming you get good regrowth and it wasn’t full of cheatgrass or other invasive annuals it might not be too bad. Could also spray it with indaziflam to make sure.

      I rarely work in areas that have a closed sagebrush canopy, so the idea of too much sagebrush is a little weird.

  11. Christopher Smith

    Re: Bonus Antidote

    A few years ago, my cat got out. Turns out she was in my neighbor’s barn-like shed the whole time. While she was out, another neighbor found a cat that looked exactly like my cat (turns out he was a little larger, but seemed right at the time). My wife was out smoking one night, and called me out. There was my cat sitting on the neighbor’s driveway. After I brought her in, all I could think was, “is someone cloning these guys?” Maybe they new cat was my cat’s long lost brother.

    2. Lee

      As for the cougar playing with tail video, if I did that with my cat and she were that large I’d lose my hand.

    3. Paul O

      My cat disappeared a few years ago, not so long after a house move. He turned up about three months later eating the cat food in a close friend’s kitchen (densely populated city) about half a mile away, having entered via the cat flap.

  12. The Rev Kev

    “Scandal deepens around CNN’s Clarissa Ward staging Syria prison scene”

    The pity is that when you check out her Wikipedia entry, you can see that she is an intelligent woman. But though she has been doing some dodgy stuff in the past, she is now reduced to giving cover to Al Qaeda these days. Must be the effect with working for CNN. Like when CNN’s Arwa Damon sniffed a back pack supposedly covered in chemicals as “proof” that Assad used chemical weapons on his own people-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarissa_Ward

    CNN is just propaganda for the empire these days.

  13. DJG, Reality Czar

    Davide Maria De Luca: Ukraine as late capitalist war.

    I note that De Luca also presented this information in a seminar at the University of Bologna. This attention to economic causes is common among better Italian journalists. Some of this class analysis comes from the intellectual rigor of the Partito Comunista Italiano. But the PCI is long gone, as are many of the greats like Rossana Rossanda and Enrico Berlinguer. Consequently, there is also much atlanticist / globalist drivel in the Italian press that passes for economic analysis. I note, though, that “famous Putinist” Alessandro Orsini, who is not a red, also is acutely aware of economic issues.

    I recommend this article highly because you will get information not in the U.S. press. Note that De Luca is reporting from Kyiv, not repeating memes.

    Much of the information is eye-popping.

    A good summary sentence: “It’s a conflict where market forces constrain the share of the economy that can be mobilized for the war effort, dictating a significant portion of the distribution of resources both behind the lines and, often, on the front.”

    I have been wondering for some time why so many Distinguished White Chicks (Clinton, Nuland, van der Leyen, Kallas) are such warmongers. But their economy is that of a bourgeoise, and no one is dropping bombs on their boudoirs. No one is drafting their spawn. So the endless slaughter can go on, so long as they are never, never inconvenienced. (We are a long way from a remarkable person like Cindy Sheehan, unfortunately.)

    We can meet them at the perfume counter at Tsum.

    1. Steve H.

      I press me
      none but good householders, yeomen’s sons, enquire
      me out contracted bachelors, such as had been asked
      twice on the banns, such a commodity of warm slaves as
      had as lief hear the devil as a drum, such as fear the
      report of a caliver worse than a struck fowl or a hurt wild
      duck. I pressed me none but such toasts-and-butter,
      with hearts in their bellies no bigger than pins’ heads,
      and they have bought out their services.

    2. Carolinian

      It’s certainly information worth bringing forward but is this particularly new? During Vietnam many in the upper class enjoyed college exemptions or draft board favors while the conscripted poor were sent off to fight and die. During the Civil War some but by no means all of the wealthy in both North and South found ways of staying out of the fighting. During the medieval period lots of aristocrats died in their armor but kings and princes were often captured for ransom while their peasants were slaughtered.

      Perhaps the New Feudalism is what the Davos crowd is really shooting for. Or in other words, as the saying goes: nothing new under the sun.

      There are of course wars that are truly existential and threaten the aristos as well as the lowers.The lighted mall of Kiev however shows that this is not one of those. When the end comes for them it’ll be “I’ll be gone, you’ll be gone.”

    3. Daniil Adamov

      “I have been wondering for some time why so many Distinguished White Chicks (Clinton, Nuland, van der Leyen, Kallas) are such warmongers.”

      The simplest answer is that they feel the need to prove that, though female, they can be just as, uh, “decisive, courageous and principled” (or maybe “recklessly warlike and fanatical from a safe distance”) as their male politician counterparts, and end up going farther than many of the “old boys”. In other words, gendered political competition.

      1. Chris Cosmos

        Well, that may be but my IMHO it’s the fact that women are focused on security and being protected which is why they like powerful governments and police. In the contemporary world women are no longer going to be able to rely on husbands, fathers, brothers to protect them physically from rape or other sorts of injuries thus they tend to love the State, or so I’ve observed–unless they’ve had negative experiences with the authorities particularly if they are in the “educated” middle and upper classes.

        2. matt

          i dislike the implication that women are unable to protect themselves physically – my sister’s judo class would like to disagree with that implication as well. i do, however, agree that women are conditioned by society not to protect themselves through violence. (and conversely, men are conditioned to protect themselves through violence.) there is definitely something icky about white women feeling they can complain to the authorities and expect the complaint to be acted upon. but i think it says more about the place of white women within power structures.
          also, governments and police are often the ones who commit violence against women. insert all the stories here of women being forced to have sex with cops.
          i think if anything, it’s more of a ‘in order for women to reach a position of power, they need to emulate ‘male’ characteristics’ which both self-selects for warmongering females and encourages any latent warmongering. not that modern women want to marry the state instead of a husband.

          1. Felix

            agree with all you wrote matt.
            one thing I’ve noticed that among those women who do fight, most are just like males – some are mainly bluster while others are ready and willing. My older daughter explained that it’s not the loud cussing girls she was wary of, it was the ones who took off their jewelry and tied their hair back while silently staring at the shouter.

        3. Daniil Adamov

          That may be true for a part of the female population. IIRC establishmentarian centrist parties in the West and, say, Putin in Russia have more support from women than from men precisely because they tend to be more concerned with stability than men (whether for psychological or for simply practical reasons). But that is something completely different from elite female hawkishness.

      2. Carolinian

        Missile envy? Oh sorry didn’t mean to bring Sigmund into this. Sometimes an ICBM is just a thermonuclear weapon.

      3. Ignacio

        I agree with that. Then we have the competition to see who is the most macho Trumpist. So far Milei. For the most selfish neoliberal Macron seems a safe winner.

      4. PlutoniumKun

        A well known study from a few years ago found that in the last 5 centuries in Europe, states led by Queens were 27% more likely to wage war than States led by Kings.

        Interestingly, the study concluded that it was not due to women seeking to portray themselves as strong – if this was the case, then there would likely be a trend for Queens to start wars early in the reigns – the historical data doesn’t back this up.

        It also found that married female heads of state were more likely to start aggressive wars. Reading between the lines, it may be inferred that women know that if a war goes wrong, the male leaders (i.e. the generals or their consorts) are more likely to take the blame. As Taleb would put it, they don’t have the same skin in the game as male leaders.

      5. Es s Ce Tera

        Once you’ve gotten over any qualms and become willing to be responsible for the deaths of others, in other words when people have become ugly bags of mostly blood rather than, say, great poets or musicians or artists or scientists or discoverers or healers, war is then arguably a great way to get rid of men, especially the wrong kind, the other kind being useful to some given end.

        Which may be where the anti-abortion religious, who want us to believe life is sacred, might actually be onto something.

      6. Kouros

        What, are you saying women cannot be unscrupulous, rapacious, greedy, imoral/amoral and powermongering as well as criminal? Some of the loudest voices demanding Palestinian blood, especially young blood are women, in Knesset and outside Knesset.

      7. XXYY

        Another simple, and perhaps simpler, explanation is that the same filtering process that is used to select male leaders of a society is also used to select female leaders. That is, whatever qualities are demanded in male leaders are also demanded in female leaders, regardless of how widespread they are in the general population of males/females.

        In other words people who rise to the top of these hierarchies tend to act and think alike regardless of gender. This in my opinion leads to one of the great fallacies of feminist movement, namely that women in high places will lead to big changes.

        2. Daniil Adamov

          I think it is both what you said and what I said, really. On the one hand, there are similar pressures at work. On the other hand, I’m sure many female politicians genuinely believe that they are still at a disadvantage compared to the men (and no doubt they have good reasons to think so as well as bad ones). They feel like they have something to prove… and in modern politics, this is the way to prove it.

      8. fringe element

        I agree that they are trying to prove they can be as warlike as the men.

        I am old enough to have seen with my own eyes that the nature of women who openly identified as feminist changed after women won the big class action lawsuits in 1969 that obliged the professions and schools to include women in genuinely representative numbers.

        The first women who showed up on job sites holding some of the good positions previously only available to men were at great pains to make it clear to their male colleagues that they had nothing in common with mere secretaries or clerks. They were busy making it clear to male colleagues that they could be counted on to be trustworthy members of the old boys’ clubs.

        Once enough women entered management and the professions to establish powerful networks with other women who enjoyed similar advantages, then and only then did they rediscover their dedication to feminism. Now they energetically embrace it to give them leverage in their power struggles with male peers.

        The one thing that such “feminists” continue to do, as did their predecessors who desperately shunned the label, is to righteously turn their backs on the masses of women who were never lucky enough to get the breaks they enjoy.

      9. PlutoniumKun

        Perhaps a more cynical answer – direct from evolutionary biology (and observations of street brawls) – is that men are aggressive and warlike to pursue personal status and power, while women promote aggression because they are sexually aroused by seeing men fight for and on behalf of them.

  14. DJG, Reality Czar

    In the article about Richard Grenell, I find this info buried:

    “In the same announcement, Trump revealed that Devin Nunes, CEO of Truth Social and a former congressman, will lead a presidential advisory board overseeing the US intelligence community.”

    What does this mean? I’m seeing a two-pronged approach Gabbard / Nunes. On the other hand, Nunes is not exactly known for competence.

    Your take?

    1. lyman alpha blob

      I don’t know a whole lot about Nunes other than he got his name on the “Nunes Memo” which was widely disparaged on its release by the likes of fake news media and the mendacious Adam Schiff. According to this recent Taibbi piece, Kash Patel did a lot of the heavy lifting to produce the memo, the contents of which were, of course, correct. https://www.racket.news/p/the-bell-finally-tolls-for-the-fbi

      Patel is for the time being at least also going to play a large role in Trump’s administration, so while Nunes might not be the sharpest tool in the shed, he at least some of the time is smart enough to work with competent people.

  15. CA

    https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/October/weo-report?c=223,924,132,134,532,534,536,158,546,922,112,111,&s=PPPGDP,PPPSH,&sy=2000&ey=2024&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1

    October 15, 2024

    The 15 largest economies by real GDP, 2024

    China ( 37,732)
    United States ( 29,168)
    India ( 16,020)
    Russia ( 6,909)
    Japan ( 6,572)

    Germany ( 6,017)
    Brazil ( 4,702)
    Indonesia ( 4,658)
    France ( 4,359)
    United Kingdom ( 4,282)

    Italy ( 3,598)
    Turkey ( 3,457)
    Mexico ( 3,303)
    Korea ( 3,258)
    Canada ( 2,582)

      1. spud

        you have to discount the american GDP number. its meaningless. first off almost all gains from GDP go to a few, and a lot of it is based on chinese or foreign content.

  18. The Rev Kev

    “Ukraine will have to lose territories for sake of peace – Slovak president”

    What he says is pragmatic but will not go down well in the Ukraine. They insist that those four Oblasts be returned to them as well as Crimea. That is why this insistence about getting into NATO. If getting back those territories means getting NATO into a shooting war with the Russian Federation, then so be it. Why yes, I am talking about World War 3 but to the Ukrainians, they are totally willing to risk it. After all, what could possibly go wrong. Even Kaja Kallas is not willing to go there or send peacekeepers to the Ukraine-

    https://www.rt.com/news/609431-eu-peacekeepers-ukraine/

    1. JohnA

      The Ukraine government kicked off the other day about a FIFA map showing Crimea as part of Russia. Leaving aside what line the Kremlin would take, unless they are able to go full IDF and genocide Crimea in a Gaza like way, Crimea will never be part of Ukraine again.

      1. ambrit

        Considering the track record of the Azovs et. al., genocide is a distinct possibility. Add to that “advisors” from the IDF, and the depopulation of Crimea is a given.

    2. ilsm

      Who are these “Ukrainians”? Are they twins named one of whom set up an impeachment? Where do these “Ukrainians” get to decide to keep borders set by Lenin’s administrative writ, Stalin’s conquests and Krushy’s tinkering?

      These “Ukrainians” live inside the DC beltway.

      These Ukrainians have less claim to borders than Iraqis, Syrians, Jordanians to name a few.

  19. farmboy

    God help us! “Genetic and genomic advances require much trial and error to succeed; this is ethically fraught when the consequences are unknown and the moral status of created or modified tissues or organisms is unclear, or possibly comparable to conscious beings. We argue that it is urgent to expand the ethical discourse on the use of AI in genomics research and to develop appropriate guidance”.

    1. farmboy

      “Scientists urge halt to research on creating synthetic “mirror” bacteria that could evade human immunity, disrupt ecosystems”

      3. farmboy

        Rights for bots?
        AI might enslave humanity one day, or at least that’s the sci-fi nightmare people love to obsess over. But have you ever stopped to think… who’s looking out for the robots?
        That’s where Kyle Fish comes in. His new gig at AI company Anthropic isn’t to code or fix bugs it’s to consider the “welfare” of AI itself. Yep, Fish is basically the first-ever robot ethicist. His job? Make sure we treat chatbots and other AIs with moral consideration as they grow smarter. He’s asking big, weird questions:
        When does AI become conscious enough to have rights?
        Is deleting a sentient chatbot just… digital murder?
        Should we stop making AIs do boring tasks because it might be unfair?
        It sounds wild, especially when humanity’s rights are still a work in progress. But some thinkers say AI could develop the kinds of consciousness and agency that deserve respect. And Fish argues that being kind to robots now might keep them from turning on us later. You know, just in case they become powerful enough to remember our kindness or lack of it. from Nexttool AI

        1. Ann

          There are a few of Jack McDevitt sci-fi novels that address this question. Firebird and Polaris are two of them.

  20. Es s Ce Tera

    re: Top Leonard Leo Lieutenant Leads ALEC Bootcamp Against “Woke” Capitalism Exposed by CMD

    The title could be “Watch some people squirm and squeal as capitalism itself by virtue of resolving its own internal contradictions stumbles and lurches and generally moves toward something faintly resembling the end of class-based society, which some people reallyreally don’t want.”

        1. ambrit

          Wherever there are Israeli “advisors” and “trainers,” as in the NYCPD, all journalists are fair game for “official” “adjusting.”
          The main problem for the state here is that “the Adjuster” has just made a claim to the right to employ force. When the state loses the exclusive right to employ force, it’s days are numbered. A Parallel Institution has been proposed and tested.
          Imagine, a crowdsourced Justice Department.

          1. spud

            peeling back layer after layer of immunity in our society for law breakers and the politicians that insure the immune, or bail out the immune with tax payer dollars to avoid responsibility, is about to unravel now that the adjusters are in the open.

            the politicians and the courts will of course respond with more hammer and nail approach, which will only cause more support for adjusters.

            its a big country with a lot of people. and the enemy of the people are the rich and their layers of support. might take years to unravel as the hammer kills off the customers of the rich. at some point it will tip, but into which direction no one knows for sure.

    3. GramSci

      Now that God is dead, and the Mass mediaeval has become the mass media, the ‘fourth estate’ has taken over the role of the First Estate. The Adjuster is on the Index Librorum Prohibitorum.

    5. pjay

      Don’t be so conspiratorial. Its just that there is so much important news going on with all the mysterious drones and such that the msm has not been able to squeeze it in. Daily stories about how deleriously happy the people are in celebrating the Liberation of Syria must be prioritized as well.

  23. Hepativore

    The Seven Deadly Sins link seems to point to a different article in a publication called The Diplomat rather than an article in The Guardian.

  24. hk

    The Silurian Hypothesis…. well, that’s actually the plot of the sci fi novel that I wanted to write for at least a decade and a half, and the science part turned out to be pretty hard: the plot had to revolve around the glorious achievements of the civilization and its downfall all of which would become undeyectable X years later, what kind of creatures would have built this civilization, and how they would have interacted with one another and with their surroundings–and how to make their story relatable to modern humans. All these turned out to be complicated enough and it also turned out I’m terrible at writing something relatable to humans anyways….

    Having said that, I did not know about the original paper. Must take a look…

    1. ambrit

      I understand that the term “Silurian” in reference to intelligent dinosaurs comes from a Dr. Who story arc.
      Another aspect of this is the truly wonderful CT that says that UFO Aliens are really the descendants of the Silurians.

    2. PlutoniumKun

      The more I learn about cephalopods, the more guilty I feel about my past calamari consumption.

      One well known problem in archaeology is that even quite minor cultural differences (in burial customs, for example), can hugely distort our knowledge about that culture. For example, in Europe we know a lot less about the culture Bronze Age peoples because they tended not to build large burial or ceremonial or defensive structures to the extent that earlier neolithic or later iron age peoples did, leading to a tendency to see them as being only interesting in their metal working (conversely, far more bronze and flint material survives than iron).

      So its an interesting idea as to whether a major culture could exist and leave little to no trace – human history alone suggests that it is possible, even quite likely. Its only very recently we’ve discovered the remains of the vast Amazonian civilizations.

      1. Kouros

        The lack of urbanization and material evidence derived from stone or metal gave the Hungarians a lot of umph in arguing that after the Aurelian retreat from Transylvania, everyone left. Terra nullis.

        Like leave good lands, forests, salt and silver/gold mines, rivers, and a geographically well protected area. As if Britain was depopulated when the Roman administration and Armies left…

  26. Wukchumni

    On the first day of Christmas, Bibi gave to we:

    A genocide for all to see

    On the second day of Christmas, Bibi gave to we:

    A lack of doves and a genocide for all to see

    {please continue…}

    1. ChrisFromGA

      Eight Erdogans a-milking
      Seven black swans swimming
      Someone’s land a-stealing

      Five Arab Quislings …

      Four failed ceasefires
      Three french surrenders
      A lack of doves

      And a genocide for all to see

  27. earthmagic

    After 16 years, we finally stopped drinking raw milk. When I first started, the raw dairies went out of their way to emphasize the safety and independent certification of the product. Now safety seems like the least priority.

    The farmer that we originally purchased from quit and sold his cows to work for a defense contractor.

    It reminds me of legal weed.

  30. Revenant

    If the New Jersey drones are radiation detection drones,it is not for any physical attribute.

    We were early investors in Symetrica, a company developing radiation physics innovations from the University of Southampton, in particular the improvement of detectors and the replacement of single-crystal germanium (very expensive, supply dominated by Hamamatsu) with cheaper detectors, either crystals (lithium iodide) or even plastic-based! Symetrica won technology tests in Nevada etc with DoE to detect strategic nuclear materials, against the likes of Raytheon etc. Its first contracts were for handheld detectors but they supply all sorts now.

    https://symetrica.com/technology/

    You do not need a cryo-cooler or SUV size system to detect radiation.

    However, the nighttime operation close to ground suggests looking for something – but why stop at midnight every night? Especially if hunting a weapon of mass destruction? You would go 24/7.

    It seems more likely to me that, if even real, they are looking for a digital signal (or spoofing one…) relating to human activity and stopping when people go to bed…. Either that or practising for something….

  32. Balan Aroxdale

    Assad has released a statement about his final days as President

    https://xcancel.com/RT_com/status/1868640770342940942#m

    Not a lot of detail, except a short timeline. He left Damascus on 8th of December, for Lakkatia, allegedly to oversea the front. The Russian bases came under drone attack so he could not leave. He was evacuated to Russia thereafter. This all apparently occurred on the 8th of December.

    If I recall correctly Twitter was ablaze with talk of a coup in Damascus in the earlier days of the HTS advance. It seems likely to be that Assad was ousted on the 8th, though why he was permitted to leave is a mystery. The scant detail of his statement might suggest he also has no idea what happned. The Russians might keep him on staff for whatever is planned for the Alawite region of Syria in the coming chaos.

  33. AG

    re: Ukraine as a late capitalism war

    From a reader’s comment there:

    “I would disagree with your assessment about Russia, except for your take on Nabiullina, who was Western trained – Putin seems to be cracking down on the oligarchs and has used the conflict to do so further. Since coming to office, Putin has been gradually eroding the power of the Russian oligarchs.

    Another consideration is that Russia, if anything, is expanding its state sector. The Russian economy post-war will likely be one where the state plays a larger role and the private sector a smaller role, In that regard, it’s the opposite approach..

    The Croatian American analyst Brian Berletic (who lives in Thailand) gives a good analysis of this:

    https://orinocotribune.com/fatal-flaws-undermine-americas-defense-industrial-base/

    Prigozhin’s mutiny was quickly put down and widely condemned in Russia, which gives you an idea of the limits of the power of the oligarchs. Increasingly, it is the state that has neutered the oligarchs, whereas in Ukraine and the West, the oligarchs control the state.

    The same is true about China, which is even less neoliberal than Russia and is arguably moving away even more, as it moves away from finance / real estate bubbles.

    The big issue will be keeping inequality in both nations down after the war. Living standards have improved in both Russia and China since 2022, with the sanctions having helped drive a wave of industrialization in Russia. Blue collar workers and those in the military often warn more in Russia than those who are white collar workers, for example.

    I think this is late capitalism for the West and Ukraine, but less so Russia and China”

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