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Links 12/16/2024

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How ‘the mother of all bubbles’ will pop FT. The deck: “It’s time to bet against American exceptionalism.”

Climate

Dozens of luxury condos, hotels in Miami sinking at ‘unexpected’ rates, new study reveals Miiami Herald

Ice-free Arctic Ocean could occur within years BNE Intellinews

* * *

Russian Discovery of a 511 Billion-Barrel Oil Reserve in Antarctica: Major Climatic and Geopolitical Implications WECB

US scientists probe potentially massive energy source buried deep underground — and it has potential to power the globe for thousands of years The Cooldown

* * *

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): A Critical Analysis, with a Focus on Agriculture, Land, and Food National Farmers Union

Wyoming research challenges benefits, highlights pitfalls of mowing and spraying sagebrush Wyofile

ICJ weighs legal responsibility for climate change, ‘future of our planet’ Al Jazeera

Syndemics

California: CDFA Announces Another Recall of H5 Contaminated Raw Milk Avian Flu Diaryd

Water

Researchers have developed a way to break down long-lasting PFAS compounds using light PBS

China?

Capitalist reforms and extreme poverty in China: unprecedented progress or income deflation? New Political Economy. Commentary:

China Races to Squelch Unrest as Signs of Economic Malaise Spread WSJ. Commentary:

China stretches lead over Greece as world’s largest shipowning nation Splash247

China’s hypersonic jumbo jet prototype hits Mach 6 in Gobi Desert test flight South China Morning Post

Where Are Southeast Asia’s ‘Cosmopolitan’ Leaders? The Diplomat

The Koreas

South Korea court begins Yoon’s impeachment trial process BBC

India

Infosys founder calls for 70-hour work week – again – claiming it creates jobs The Register

Kho kho reborn The Print

Africa

Cylcone Chido barrels though Mayotte, affects Madagascar and the Comoros Africa News. Commentary:

Syraqistan

Postwar development of offshore energy resources: Legal and political models for developing the Gaza Marine gas field Leiden Journal of International Law

Israel approves plan to surge settler population in occupied Golan Heights Al Jazeera

* * *

Israel drops ‘earthquake bomb’: Colossal explosion ‘so big it registered on the Richter scale’ hits Syrian coast as air strikes target weapons depots after fall of Assad regime Daily Mail

How ex-Daesh and al-Qaeda leader al-Jolani became West’s blue-eyed boy in Syria PressTV

After euphoria of Assad’s fall, Syrians face daunting challenge of rebuilding Aleppo France24

* * *

Gaza’s libraries will rise from the ashes AL Jazeera

New Not-So-Cold War

Ukraine as a late capitalism war Davide Maria De Luca, DMD. The deck: “Why is the fancy mall lit up during a blackout?” Fascinating. Well worth a read.

* * *

Trump’s team studies ways to permanently end Russia’s war against Ukraine – Trump’s future advisor Ukrainska Pravda

Ukraine will have to lose territories for sake of peace – Slovak president Ukrainska Pravdad

The Ukrainian Black Hole Gathers the Storm of World War III Gordon Hahn, Russian and Eurasian Politics

Farewell to Utopia? Elections in Georgia and Moldova as a Marker of Public Demand for Stability Valdai Discussion Club

Trump Transition

Hegseth to release sexual misconduct accuser from non-disclosure agreement, Lindsey Graham says Politico

Trump’s team comments on Orbán’s idea of a Christmas truce in Ukraine Ukrainska Pravda

Trump taps Richard Grenell as envoy for ‘special missions’ Anadolu Agency

Trump’s Silicon Valley advisers have AI ‘censorship’ in their crosshairs TechCrunch

Trump’s Worldview Isn’t as Unpredictable as You Think Bloomberg

Republican Funhouse

Top Leonard Leo Lieutenant Leads ALEC Bootcamp Against “Woke” Capitalism Exposed by CMD

What is the Future of the Federalist Society? CIvitas Institute

Legal Theory Lexicon: Deontology Legal Theory Blog

Antitrust

Monopoly Round-Up: FTC Revives the “Magna Carta of Small Business” Matt Stoller, BIG

Our Famously Free Press

CNN launches investigation into claims Clarissa Ward’s Assad jail rescue was fake Daily Mail

Scandal deepens around CNN’s Clarissa Ward staging Syria prison scene The Grayzone

Digital Watch

Revolut backers offload almost $1bn of stock FT

Zeitgeist Watch

In the Rockets’ Red Glare Harper’s. The deck: “The past and future of hot-rodding in America.”

Xmas Pre-Game Festivities

It’s Tough Work Being a Temporary Santa JSTOR Daily

Small businesses say cautious shoppers are seeking ‘cozy’ and ‘festive’ this holiday season AP

Mystery Drones

Joe Rogan admits he’s ‘genuinely concerned’ about New Jersey drones after expert revealed terrifying theory Daily Mail. See Theory #3 at NC here.

New Jersey’s drone mystery solved by statistics! Kevin Drum

Schumer calls on U.S. agencies to use advanced technology to identify mysterious drones PBS

Imperial Collapse Watch

The Three-Dollars Problem FT

Guillotine Watch

Someone is buying up a historic coastal city. Is it the next California Forever? San Francisco Chronicle

Class Warfare

SF tech startup Scale AI, worth $13.8B, accused of widespread wage theft SFGATE

Seven Deadly Sins by Guy Leschziner review – the biology of human frailty Guardian

Are you a morning person? You may be a Neanderthal descendant WaPo

The Silurian Hypothesis: It was the Cephalopods Pacificklaus

Antidote du jour ():

Bonus antidote:

Douhble bonus antidote:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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41 comments

  1. Antifa

    Oil Ain’t Free
    (melody borrowed from Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree  by Johnny Marks, as sung by Brenda Lee, 1958)

    Dirty deeds in the Middle East
    Where the bloodshed doesn’t stop
    Three different faiths professing peace
    But with lots of agitprop

    East of the Nile, catastrophe
    Seems to swallow everything
    Wars that some say are justified
    To slow oil sales to Beijing

    We do lots of monumental stealing every year
    Everyone plays as Svengali—load up for another volley

    Missiles and bombs and IED’s, death on every side each day
    If you’re paid mercenarily you can earn some damn good pay

    (musical interlude)

    Profits from these oil wells are appealing over here
    Pirates want the oil you’re hauling—chopping heads is so appalling

    Nothing here can be guaranteed
    It’s a rolling triple play
    Everyone here’s consumed by greed
    When the sun comes up each day

    Reply ↓
  2. The Rev Kev

    “Are you a morning person? You may be a Neanderthal descendant.”

    Nope. Not his little black duck. I have to fight my way out of bed each morning. Maybe that is why Neanderthals are no longer with us. Homo sapiens kept on getting woken by the early rising Neanderthals so put an end to them so that they could finally get to sleep in.

    Reply ↓
      1. farmboy

        you can run, but you can’t hide! so I find myself leaving NakedCap on dating websites as a either an opener or goodbye, didn’t see that coming!

        Reply ↓
  3. Trees&Trunks

    Trying to be locally aware I shed a lot of crocodile tears for the sinking luxury condos and hotels. I hope one can also count on Florida and Miami public or taxpayer money not being used to bail-out the owners of these luxury condos and hotels.

    Reply ↓
    1. Zagonostra

      Ever since the Miami Surfside condominium collapse back in ’21, I’ve heard some friends who own condos complain about how they are being hit with “special assessments.” A friend who lives near Jupiter Inlet showed me her part of replacing the roof tiles came to almost $20K. it’s not a “luxury condo,” just a simple 3/2 off Federal Hgway. The odd thing is the roof tiles looked in good shape, nothing a high-pressure washing wouldn’t fix to my untrained eye.

      I suspect, these “luxury condos” will have some public tax money spent, since there constituents are better connected.

      Reply ↓
  4. Wukchumni

    It’s beginning to look a lot like capitulation
    Everywhere you go
    Take a look at Syrian arms blowing up, it’s glistening once again
    With explosives & incendiaries that glow

    It’s beginning to look a lot like capitulation
    Ploys in every sphere
    But the scariest sight to see is the collapse that will be
    On your own leaders front door

    A pair of galoots like Joe & Antony and an ATACMS that shoots
    Is the wish of Volodymyr, and soon!
    Detractors that wont talk and will hopefully go for a long walk
    Is the hope of Macron and Yoon
    And Mom and Dad can hardly wait for a new regime to start again

    It’s beginning to look a lot like capitulation
    Everywhere you go
    There’s unrest in Bucharest, and in Seoul as well
    It’s the sturdy kind that doesn’t mind taking over the show

    It’s beginning to look a lot like capitulation
    Soon the tells will start
    And the thing that’ll make ’em zing is the replacements
    Taking over their part

    It’s beginning to look a lot like capitulation
    Surprises in store
    But the regime change to see is the eviction notice that will be
    On your own leaders front door

    Sure, it’s capitulation once more

    Reply ↓
    1. ChrisFromGA

      Welcome to “free” Syria, where your country is so free that a foreign neighbor can bomb it with impunity and take territory with no pushback from the ostensible ruling coalition.

      Reply ↓
  6. Zagonostra

    >Russian Discovery of a 511 Billion-Barrel Oil Reserve in Antarctica: Major Climatic and Geopolitical Implications WECB

    For decades, Antarctica has been seen as a “global commons,” a place where nations agreed to set aside territorial disputes in favor of scientific research. But with the discovery of such vast resources, the question arises: can these agreements hold in the face of such temptations?

    The world will be watching closely as Russia, China, and other countries navigate the tension between economic gain and environmental preservation.

    I don’t know if the world is “closely” watching what is going on, I don’t think the article’s concern for the environment is all that is at play here. It’s geopolitical maneuvering, the “world” didn’t make much of an issue when the Nord stream pipeline caused one the worst, if not worst, release of gas into the atmosphere.

    Reply ↓
    1. Christopher Smith

      All of the talk about climate change in the West is just that: talk. When you look at the behavior, you can see that we really don’t care about climate change and probably won’t until its too late. Russia and China are just doing what we are without the BS.

      Reply ↓
  7. DJG, Reality Czar

    Pilkington and Taleb: Fun with bar charts.

    The bar chart does not show what they seem to think it shows. If EU stands for EU as a whole, what are Germany and France doing off to the side?

    But let’s assume that the EU bar means EU without Germany or France. Putting Germany and France back into the EU would place the EU as the largest economy in the world, at 38.42.

    Bar charts are already the weakest form of statistical display and are easily abused.

    I’ll just describe the bar chart succinctly: It’s chart junk.

    Reply ↓
    1. Frank Dean

      In this case the labels on the chart are exactly correct as your own calculation revealed. The EU is obviously not responsible for 38% of world output.

      Reply ↓
    2. Expat2uruguay

      Or we could assume that the EU means all of the EU including France and Germany, which are just shown separately as well.
      What I don’t understand is why India is called the third largest economy, but is clearly the fourth bar. But honestly I found the whole presentation undecipherable.

      Reply ↓
  10. farmboy

    article re Sagebrush, I’m distributing to my conservation contacts. Post wildland fire there is always a reduction in sage and return of grasses first, benefits to grazing and native grasses and almost always cheatgrass explodes, but a shift in habitat, always devastating to the sage niche. replanting or adding sage in CRP contracts has been a hard pill to swallow for landowners, but becoming more acceptable. Your tax dollars at work,sarc!

    Reply ↓
  11. Christopher Smith

    Re: Bonus Antidote

    A few years ago, my cat got out. Turns out she was in my neighbor’s barn-like shed the whole time. While she was out, another neighbor found a cat that looked exactly like my cat (turns out he was a little larger, but seemed right at the time). My wife was out smoking one night, and called me out. There was my cat sitting on the neighbor’s driveway. After I brought her in, all I could think was, “is someone cloning these guys?” Maybe they new cat was my cat’s long lost brother.

    Reply ↓
  12. The Rev Kev

    “Scandal deepens around CNN’s Clarissa Ward staging Syria prison scene”

    The pity is that when you check out her Wikipedia entry, you can see that she is an intelligent woman. But though she has been doing some dodgy stuff in the past, she is now reduced to giving cover to Al Qaeda these days. Must be the effect with working for CNN. Like when CNN’s Arwa Damon sniffed a back pack supposedly covered in chemicals as “proof” that Assad used chemical weapons on his own people-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarissa_Ward

    CNN is just propaganda for the empire these days.

    Reply ↓
  13. DJG, Reality Czar

    Davide Maria De Luca: Ukraine as late capitalist war.

    I note that De Luca also presented this information in a seminar at the University of Bologna. This attention to economic causes is common among better Italian journalists. Some of this class analysis comes from the intellectual rigor of the Partito Comunista Italiano. But the PCI is long gone, as are many of the greats like Rossana Rossanda and Enrico Berlinguer. Consequently, there is also much atlanticist / globalist drivel in the Italian press that passes for economic analysis. I note, though, that “famous Putinist” Alessandro Orsini, who is not a red, also is acutely aware of economic issues.

    I recommend this article highly because you will get information not in the U.S. press. Note that De Luca is reporting from Kyiv, not repeating memes.

    Much of the information is eye-popping.

    A good summary sentence: “It’s a conflict where market forces constrain the share of the economy that can be mobilized for the war effort, dictating a significant portion of the distribution of resources both behind the lines and, often, on the front.”

    I have been wondering for some time why so many Distinguished White Chicks (Clinton, Nuland, van der Leyen, Kallas) are such warmongers. But their economy is that of a bourgeoise, and no one is dropping bombs on their boudoirs. No one is drafting their spawn. So the endless slaughter can go on, so long as they are never, never inconvenienced. (We are a long way from a remarkable person like Cindy Sheehan, unfortunately.)

    We can meet them at the perfume counter at Tsum.

    Reply ↓
    1. Steve H.

      I press me
      none but good householders, yeomen’s sons, enquire
      me out contracted bachelors, such as had been asked
      twice on the banns, such a commodity of warm slaves as
      had as lief hear the devil as a drum, such as fear the
      report of a caliver worse than a struck fowl or a hurt wild
      duck. I pressed me none but such toasts-and-butter,
      with hearts in their bellies no bigger than pins’ heads,
      and they have bought out their services.

      Reply ↓
  14. DJG, Reality Czar

    In the article about Richard Grenell, I find this info buried:

    “In the same announcement, Trump revealed that Devin Nunes, CEO of Truth Social and a former congressman, will lead a presidential advisory board overseeing the US intelligence community.”

    What does this mean? I’m seeing a two-pronged approach Gabbard / Nunes. On the other hand, Nunes is not exactly known for competence.

    Your take?

    Reply ↓
  15. CA

    https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/October/weo-report?c=223,924,132,134,532,534,536,158,546,922,112,111,&s=PPPGDP,PPPSH,&sy=2000&ey=2024&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1

    October 15, 2024

    The 15 largest economies by real GDP, 2024

    China ( 37,732)
    United States ( 29,168)
    India ( 16,020)
    Russia ( 6,909)
    Japan ( 6,572)

    Germany ( 6,017)
    Brazil ( 4,702)
    Indonesia ( 4,658)
    France ( 4,359)
    United Kingdom ( 4,282)

    Italy ( 3,598)
    Turkey ( 3,457)
    Mexico ( 3,303)
    Korea ( 3,258)
    Canada ( 2,582)

    Reply ↓
  18. The Rev Kev

    “Ukraine will have to lose territories for sake of peace – Slovak president”

    What he says is pragmatic but will not go down well in the Ukraine. They insist that those four Oblasts be returned to them as well as Crimea. That is why this insistence about getting into NATO. If getting back those territories means getting NATO into a shooting war with the Russian Federation, then so be it. Why yes, I am talking about World War 3 but to the Ukrainians, they are totally willing to risk it. After all, what could possibly go wrong. Even Kaja Kallas is not willing to go there or send peacekeepers to the Ukraine-

    https://www.rt.com/news/609431-eu-peacekeepers-ukraine/

    Reply ↓
    1. JohnA

      The Ukraine government kicked off the other day about a FIFA map showing Crimea as part of Russia. Leaving aside what line the Kremlin would take, unless they are able to go full IDF and genocide Crimea in a Gaza like way, Crimea will never be part of Ukraine again.

      Reply ↓
    2. ilsm

      Who are these “Ukrainians”? Are they twins named one of whom set up an impeachment? Where do these “Ukrainians” get to decide to keep borders set by Lenin’s administrative writ, Stalin’s conquests and Krushy’s tinkering?

      These “Ukrainians” live inside the DC beltway.

      These Ukrainians have less claim to borders than Iraqis, Syrians, Jordanians to name a few.

      Reply ↓
  19. farmboy

    God help us! “Genetic and genomic advances require much trial and error to succeed; this is ethically fraught when the consequences are unknown and the moral status of created or modified tissues or organisms is unclear, or possibly comparable to conscious beings. We argue that it is urgent to expand the ethical discourse on the use of AI in genomics research and to develop appropriate guidance”.

    Reply ↓
    1. farmboy

      “Scientists urge halt to research on creating synthetic “mirror” bacteria that could evade human immunity, disrupt ecosystems”

      Reply ↓
  20. Es s Ce Tera

    re: Top Leonard Leo Lieutenant Leads ALEC Bootcamp Against “Woke” Capitalism Exposed by CMD

    The title could be “Watch some people squirm and squeal as capitalism itself by virtue of resolving its own internal contradictions stumbles and lurches and generally moves toward something faintly resembling the end of class-based society, which some people reallyreally don’t want.”

    Reply ↓

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