Links 12/17/2024

Finding hope: Panji and the Javan green magpie BBC (Allen K)

Planet Puppet n+1

How English Swear Words Evolved Over Thousands of Years Laughing Squid

World’s oldest bond celebrates 400 years with a €300 payout DutchNews (Kevin W)

School smartphone ban results in better sleep and improved mood University of York (Paul R)

Climate/Environment

Seven quiet breakthroughs for climate and nature in 2024 you might have missed BBC

China?

China’s Key Bond Yield Hits Fresh Record Low as Data Disappoints Bloomberg

After all the hostility Trump (and before that Biden) has demonstrated to China, I can’t think China sees this as more a Trumpian bluster so as not to burn all bridges, or a headfake:

The Global South Is on the Brink of a Disastrous Debt Crisis. Reform Is Urgent TruthOut. We’ve featured many warnings by Jomo on this very topic.

Koreas

Washington’s Bad Bet on Yoon Daniel Larison

South Korea – Impeached Coup President ‘Aligned With Washington’s Values’ Moon of Alabama (Kevin W)

South Korea’s central bank vows to stabilise markets amid political turmoil. South China Morning Post

O Canada

Canada’s finance minister resigns as Trudeau deals with declining popularity Associated Press (Robin R). ZOMG, I thought Chrystia Freeland was the sort who would never give up power. Does she had a trick up her sleeve, or more likely, some important non-elected post she expects to assume? Or does she hope to replace him if he loses a vote of confidence? But at this juncture, she looks to be another victim of Alex Christoforou’s Elensky Curse.

Canada finance minister quits after clash with Trudeau over Trump tariffs, spending Reuters (Kevin W)

European Disunion

European farmers have threatened to blockade supermarket deliveries and leave shelves bare as part of their biggest tractor protests against the EU yet Telegraph

EU presses for new powers to combat threat of Chinese import surge Financial Times

German election: Scholz loses confidence vote DW

Germany should pull out of NATO, says leader of far-right AfD The Times

Germany is unravelling just when Europe needs it most Fortune

François Bayrou’s tough task: Forming a big-tent government Le Monde

The assessment that Greece has been an ‘astonishing success’ beggars belief Bill Mitchell. I have to confess that I missed this horror. Glad to see Mitchell and Varoufakis, among others, shellack it.

Old Blighty

Rachel Reeves will have to find an extra £20billion a year if Britain is to hit a proposed new NATO target of spending 3pc of GDP on defence Telegraph

UK government approves $4.6-billion takeover of Royal Mail by a Czech billionaire Associated Press (Kevin W). Holy shit. No protests?!?!

How did Yang Tengbo become close confidant of Prince Andrew? Guardian (Kevin W)

Israel v. The Resistance

Intent: The Road to genocide Law4Palestine

Culture would have us believe there’s room for debate. I have something to say about that Alon Mizrahi. Podcast with transcript.

Zionist cutouts and intermediaries David Miller (Dr. Kevin)

Iran’s Assad Calculus: Actual Costs of Support vs Benefits to Iran Perspectives (guurst). Today’s must read. Debunks common claims about role of Syria in The Resistance.

US Sanctions Disrupt Iranian Crude Flows to China, Vortexa Says Bloomberg

New Not-So-Cold War

SITREP 12/16/24: Negotiations Talk Curdles as Ukraine Loses More Territory Simplicius

European ‘peacekeepers’ in Ukraine? A horrible idea. Responsible Statecraft

Expanded meeting of the Defence Ministry Board Kremlin

Ukraine assassinates Russian chemical weapons chief in Moscow bombing Politico (Micael T)

Zakharova: General Kirillov exposed the crimes of the Anglo-Saxons for many years Vzglyad via machine translation (Micael T)

Can Trump Avoid HUMILIATING DEFEAT in Ukraine? | Alex Christoforou Interview Larry Johnson, Countercurrents

About Power Projection. Andrei Martyanov. Martyanov very much disagrees with one of Christoforou’s lines of thought above.

Andrei Martyanov and Power Julian Macfarlane. Martyanov is on a roll. And we got a nice shout out.

Syraqistan

US affirms Türkiye’s right to go after PKK but dodges questions on YPG Anadolu Agency

Assad says he didn’t intend to leave Syria, statement claims BBC

Foreign powers jockey for control in Syria, risking new conflict Washington Post. Gee, ya think?

Imperial Collapse Watch

America’s allies are in trouble Axios

The U.S. Strategy of Controlled Anarchy: Syria, Ukraine, and Beyond Michael Hudson and Richard Wolff, Dialogue Works (Chuck L)

Trump 2.0

Judge rules Trump does not have presidential immunity protections in hush money conviction CNN. This was a motion to dismiss and so went before the same judge. Appeal to follow.

Trump girds for battle with Democrats, Supreme Court over birthright citizenship The Hill

Yellen Cautions Trump Against Meddling With Financial Regulations Pymnts

Trump says Zelensky not invited to inauguration RT (Kevin W)

Meet the Project 2025 People Who Are Filling Up Trump’s Administration Zeteo. I would prefer a table or roster to a video. As Lambert explained longer-form, Project 2025 is rife with internal contradictions, so it’s not a coherent policy program as much as a very long list of hobbyhorses. And this list in the intro to this piece, the only one in a post considered to be Cabinet-rank is Russ Vought at OMB, and that “cabinet rank” posts are not as powerful as Cabinet members (an analogy is the head of the Council Economic Advisers v. the Secretary of the Treasury). So while this behavior bears watching, this evidence is not yet dispositive.

Biden

Joe Biden’s pardons are a moral surrender Unherd (Anthony L)

Connolly bests Ocasio-Cortez in key vote to lead Democrats on Oversight panel The Hill. All of that kissing up to Pelosi for naught.

Do Americans approve or disapprove of Congress? FiveThirtyEight (Robin K)

Our No Longer Free Press

‘Libel warfare’: ABC’s payout to Donald Trump sends a chill across US media Financial Times. Help me. Defamation and freedom of speech are two different categories. And the US is way more permissive about what constitutes defamation than many other countries.

Woke Watch

The Dustbin of Literary History The Reading Experience (Anthony L)

AI

She didn’t get an apartment because of an AI-generated score – and sued to help others avoid the same fate Guardian

The Bezzle

Never Forgive Them Ed Zitron. Lambert featured yesterday in Water Cooler, but important not to miss.

Guillotine Watch

Luigi Mangione’s Best Defense Strategy Might Be to Avoid Arguing Over Guilt Wall Street Journal

New Crisis Hotline for CEOs? Ken Klippenstein (Chuck L). Bwahaha!

Class Warfare

Generation Pocket Money. Inheritocracy: It’s Time to Talk About the Bank of Mum and Dad Literary Review (Anthony L)

Buy now, Pay Later services had their best day yet on Cyber Monday, with consumers spending a record-breaking $991.2 million, according to Adobe Analytics CNN

The “Injury-Productivity Trade-off”: How Amazon’s Obsession with Speed Creates Uniquely Dangerous Warehouses Senate.gov. Important. If you are pressed for time, read the Table of Contents. On top of refusing to remedy harmful workplace conditions, Amazon discourages injured workers from getting more medical care than first aid even when they clearly need it, and makes it exceedingly difficult for them to obtain required accommodations when recovering.

Fintech firm opts for AI over hiring LinkedIn (Robin K)

Antidote du jour (Alena S):

And a bonus (Chuck L):

A second bonus (Peter D):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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140 comments

  1. Antifa

    When She Screams
    (melody borrowed from Free Fallin’  by Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers)

    It’s a warm world, it’s our Mama
    It’s breezy, and the sky is pure blue
    It’s a wild world, with so much to tell us
    Grand forces keep it spinning for you

    Nature, we say, is muy bonita
    Night and day She’s workin’ so hard
    While we pray for Her rain and Her rivers
    We build huge toys to tear Her apart

    When She screams—She’s callin’
    Our routine is stonewallin’

    Profits require we add to our tally
    Our mess leaves our planet all scarred
    Commerce destroys what our Mother hallows
    But we love our commodities charts

    When She screams—She’s callin’
    Our routine is stonewallin’

    (She’s callin’ Mother keeps callin’ it’s time)
    (She’s callin’ Mother keeps callin’ it’s time)

    It’s such a sad sound when we hit the wall and
    We feel ashamed but barely know why
    We hear Her call and we don’t do nothin’
    This is our way—to the very last mile

    When She screams—(She’s callin’ Mother keeps callin’ it’s time)
    She’s callin’—(She’s callin’ Mother keeps callin’ it’s time)

    When She screams—(She’s callin’ Mother keeps callin’ it’s time)
    She’s callin’—(She’s callin’ Mother keeps callin’ it’s time)

    (She’s callin’ Mother keeps callin’ it’s time)
    When She screams—She’s callin’

    Ohh!
    (She’s callin’ Mother keeps callin’ it’s time)
    She’s callin’—(She’s callin’ Mother keeps callin’ it’s time)
    When She screams—(She’s callin’ Mother keeps callin’)Ohhh!
    She’s callin’—(She’s callin’ Mother keeps callin’ it’s time)

  2. bwilli123

    In depth interview with Korean peace activist & journalist.
    Korea Crisis: Deep causes of the real crisis of Korea and US power | Interview with KJ Noh
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-n15gwAB3ek

    From an automagically generated transcript (lightly edited for clarity)

    “the State Department spokesperson Vidant Patel he just could not bring himself to condemn it.
    Asked him, you know he was asked do you do you uh then approve of the recision of Martial law and he said, “Again we can’t get ahead of ourselves, you know I just essentially I can’t approve the recision.”
    So what they were doing is they were very quiet, uh they were not condemning as they
    should and would if it had been you know (an) adversarial Nation they were saying that, you know Yun despite having broken all the acceptable Notions of of what constitutes a political politically legitimate leadership is still somebody that we are supporting I think that message was clear and now you see the kind of offis and the distraction starting to happen and you see also the messaging being sent to Korea and to Korean politicians that you know Yun was our closest friend.
    We loved his agenda don’t get any other ideas.

    You know Yun was doing what we wanted him to do, which was essentially stage Korea as a war zone for battle against China and collaborate with Japan in building this Force projection platform against China.
    This is what we want. This is what he brought us. This is why we supported him.”

    1. The Rev Kev

      Something tells me that the US Embassy in South Korea was watching the whole coup attempt with their hands over their faces – while peeking between their fingers what was going on and seeing if he could get away with it.

    2. Louis Fyne

      IMO. The US really ought to just leave Korea. The S Koreans can defend themselves (against an adversary who’s been turned into a boogeyman a league above its actual class).

      S Koreans (reasonably) won’t fight China to defend Taiwan. And having 35,000+ American troops 300 miles from the Chinese mainland causes more headaches than its worth for the entire world.

      not holding my breath.

      that said, it’s funny how DC manages to choose the stupidest local politicians as their satraps. And that’s saying a lot for Korea as there are lots of dolts in their political class.

      1. ilsm

        Move out of Japan* as well. Note the USMC is relocating from Okinawa to Guam.

        DPRK is more useful in hitting Japan and US targets!

        What strategy in fighting on the peninsula? Tripwire for MAD is not strategy!

        US does not have enough THAAD, Patriot, and Aegis ships to overcome Japan’s not building significant missile defense. Otherwise, it would be breeched anyway..

        1. jrkrideau

          Unfortunately there seems to be a lot of stupid politicians. I think the Kurds are likely to be jilted for third time. Or is it the fourth?

  3. The Rev Kev

    ‘Arnaud Bertrand
    @RnaudBertrand
    This 👇 potentially changes everything, it looks like Trump envisions a U.S.-China G2.
    He says that “China and the United States can together solve all the problems in the world”.’

    George Bush had the same idea. That you would have China and the US go into a partnership to run the world. Of course China would be the junior partner and would be expected to cough up both money and troops that could be deployed for occupation duties. Oddly enough the Chinese gave the whole idea a miss as they were too busy building up their industrial capacity and said that they had no interest into becoming world policemen.

    1. DJG, Reality Czar

      Rev Kev: I think that without the mighty nation of Andorra, they may not be able to pull this off. So I’d advocate China, US of A, and Andorra. (It has about much likelihood as the G2 that Trump is trial-ballooning.)

      Bertrand goes on in his twiXt to lament where the Europeans are. Indeed, they should use China and the U.S.A. as counterweights, so as to avoid the economic power of each of them.

      Italy is a recent case of how stupidly this relationship with China has been handled. Giuseppe Conte and his government negotiated a treaty to participate in China’s Belt-and-Road Initiative. This seems awfully logical to me, given that Italy has been one terminus of the Silk Road for two thousand years.

      So who let the treaty lapse just recently? Giorgia Meloni and her government. The ostensible nationalists. Yet their slavish attitude toward the U S of A isn’t passing unnoticed — now that France and Germany are in highly serious crises, the Italians are starting to make some noises about doing things on their own.

      I’m sure Annalena Baerbock and Kaja Kallas will have something to say about Italian ideas of independence…

      1. vao

        Bertrand goes on in his twiXt to lament where the Europeans are. Indeed, they should use China and the U.S.A. as counterweights, so as to avoid the economic power of each of them.

        I will leave this here: 32 years ago, this was exactly the argument put forth to convince French citizens to vote in favour of the Maastricht treaty: To make Europe, is to measure up.

        Then it was Europe facing the USA and Japan, not China, but the situation was similar. How low has Europe fallen…

        1. Ignacio

          And there were possibly some genuine arguments there. Somehow it worked the other way around: unite them so they fall together. Not a cumbersome one by one process.

        2. Kouros

          Col. Wilkerson, in an interview with Dima, I think (Dialogue Works), some months ago recounted that how the political fiasco suffered by the US in 2003 with the illegal war in Iraq, has invested billions of dollars of cultivating and recruiting a new layer of leadership all over Europe and the world, to avoid that happening: so blackmail, bribes of all sorts, identification of individuals with the “right” attitude and values to be promoted.

          Worth every cent.

    2. Emma

      The Chinese have spent over 2,000 years avoiding being the world’s policemen and everytime they got sucked into policing has been a disaster for them, including their involvement in Korea (without which they very likely would have taken Taiwan back quickly) and their little punitive expedition against the Vietnamese.

      And to be junior thug buddy for a Western elite that barely considers them to be human?

      1. Louis Fyne

        >>>Chinese have spent over 2,000 years avoiding being the world’s policemen

        IMO, more like China becomes the world’s apex civilization—then the regime collapses until the weight of intra-elite grifting. Rinse and Repeat.

        And the US is following the exact same trajectory.

      2. scott s.

        When you wrote about “involvement in Korea” I thought you meant the Imjin Wars, or maybe the first Sino-Japanese War.

          1. Emma

            My point was these efforts didn’t turn out very well and were not frequently repeated, and they tended to get it pretty quickly. And the other side still remember grudges from hundreds or thousands of years ago.

            Anyhow you know exactly what I meant. The Chinese lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers fighting for the DPRK and lost their clearest shot to recover Taiwan, which could have allowed them back into the world community decades earlier by finishing the civil war. That and the stupid invasion of Vietnam “to teach them a lesson” are their most recent experiences in fighting foreign wars and they’re not interested in repeating the experience.

  4. Mark Gisleson

    Hate to call out a typo but you just accused Trump of endorsing suttee. The lead in to the Arnaud Bertrand tweet under China says “brides” where I’m pretty sure you meant to say “bridges.”

    1. .Tom

      Arnaud Bertrand’s comment that if Trump pivoted to good relations with China it would be bad for Europe. If the USA can pivot on China, why can’t Europe? European leaders seem usually are ready to do what Washington wants. Is it because most are card-carrying members of the Anti-Trump Resistance or is there another reason, e.g. they fear seeming to legitimize their domestic right-wing populist parties?

      1. CA

        Arnaud Bertrand’s comment that if Trump pivoted to good relations with China it would be bad for Europe. If the USA can pivot on China, why can’t Europe?

        1) Always paying close attention to Bertrand, I do not understand why good relations with America should be a problem for European countries. China does not form exclusive partnerships.

        2) Beyond sheer prejudice, which may be an unfortunate factor in a particular country, why should Europe generally have a problem with China? Chinese relations with other countries are respectful from Ethiopia to Laos to Peru to Ireland.

        Why should Bertrand fret about Europe-China relations?

  5. Ben Panga

    Schumer seeks legislation giving local officials authority to ‘swiftly’ respond to drone sightings

    I repeat my assertion that this is (a main portion) of the point of the drone flap.

    There is a Patriot Act type process in motion that will drastically increase the militarization of the Homeland. It’s happening almost completely unnoticed.

    For the record: Schumer was also the Senate driver of the bipartisan UFO rubbish. He is part of the gang of 8.

    In other words, “the phonecall is coming from inside the house”

    1. Wukchumni

      ..in related news

      A cameraman was seriously injured in a head-on collision when Chuck rushed the camera, as is his wont…

    2. amfortas the hippie

      per mom, she was adamant to make sure she owned the mineral rights under this place..which she said was easy, because theres nothing but granite pluton(of course we didnt know granite sand was a thing back then)
      (and idk how much of that is mom’s delusional bs,lol)

      what i wonder…how does one declare the airspace above one’s farm…im not talking all th way to space…but at least 500 feet.?
      air force rules for the west texas training area are that they hafta be 400′,iirc…which, as far as i’m concerned, is way too low….and has not always been adhered to, anyways.
      now with the drone thing….well, i agree with you about the reason for this mass hysteria orson wells mess…making us demand what they want.
      last thing i need is a bunch of drones surveilling me.
      and i somehow dont think the ptb would allow me to install PDC’s….or even ordinary flak cannons.
      i have no idea about jammers…i suspise that there are plans for constructing such devices from old microwaves and washing machines and such…(but i’m terrible at motherboards and soldering, etc)
      (and this line of thought might sound extreme to urbanites or suburbanites…but i can almost guarantee that the local sheriff would be sympathetic, given where i live….people out here do not tolerate strangers wandering around on their spread…and neither do i)
      anyhoo…something ive been chewing on since the new jersey thing began.

      1. Wukchumni

        I 3D printed a Paris Gun to ward off potential free boarders around the perimeter, and perhaps Pixley will be in peril, as soon as I can 3D print some 216mm shells.

          1. Wukchumni

            I’ve been busy 3D printing Farrah from the 70’s and just can’t get the hair right, i’ll see if I can do a rush order for you.

      2. mrsyk

        according to my ai The ownership of the airspace over property is vested in the several owners of the lands below. However, this ownership is subject to the statutory right of overflight[i]. The air is generally a public highway and the airspace overhead is part of the public domain[ii].
        In NYC, air rights are bought and sold, usually to facilitate development. Here’s one such story:
        JTS Made $100M Selling Its Air Rights. Will It Give Some Money To Its Neighbors?, Morningside Heights Community Coalition.

        1. amfortas the hippie

          im open to negotiating a price for what i consider annoying overflights at lower levels.
          otherwise, below say 400 feet, i consider drones as skeet.
          if local leos want to know what i’m up to, all they need do is ask.
          so drones have no business over my hermit kingdom.
          scalia’s right to be left alone applies, strongly.

          and, no…this is all very theoretical. i do not expect drones nosing around out here…even if anduril and shumer, et alia get their newest boondoggle of full spectrum graft.

          theres nothing here.

          (and, it occurrs to me…my muscovy ducks are full grown, now…and cool as hell to hang out with, btw(they do this strange head bobbing thing to talk to each other(and to me,lol)).
          they are adept flyers…like rooftops(clean gutters) and trees…and fly off every evening to my neighbors pond.
          perhaps i could train them, somehow…or convince them…to haul a big net, or something…)

          1. mrsyk

            Maybe a cacophony of honking would work I wish lol. I’m of a similar mind regarding “ skeet”, and I’m a descent shot. The neighbors down the hill got their boy a drone. He was flying it around including over the house. I gave it a big wave and have not seen it again.

      3. ACPAL

        As I recall from a lengthy video, aircraft have basically a “right of passage” through the air above houses. The FAA requires, unless taking off, landing, or crashing, that they maintain at least 200′ above the ground. In perspective, a drone hovering above someone’s property, even above 200′, is not passing through and is therefore violating FAA rules and the owner can sue for violation of privacy rights. You still cannot legally shoot them down but if you do then they have to sue you, though the sheriff can charge you with destruction of private property. Of course, not all sheriffs are sympathetic to snooping drones.

        I’ve known some test pilots who couldn’t tell how high they were flying. One liked to buzz hills in the desert when he knew there were campers on the other side. Response to the complaints was the usual “I didn’t know they were there.” The 200′ rule is considered by many pilots as “a recommendation,” not a regulation.

        1. MicaT

          Airplanes have to maintain

          500’ over open uncongested areas. Water and extremely rural areas, definitely not urban environments.
          1000’ above the tallest object within 2000’ radius in congested areas

      4. scott s.

        I don’t think courts have been receptive to trespass claims against aircraft in what FAA deems, by regulation, navigable airspace. Better luck seems to be to have a county DA/prosecutor advance a “public nuisance” theory. 4th amendment searches are a bit more restricted than simple trespass.

        1. amfortas the hippie

          re: 4th amendment…does the open fields doctrine extend upwards?
          ie: cops can hover their drone overhead without a warrant, pobable cause of anything…because any jake can do the same with his drone.

          like i said, im pretty sure our sheriffs, going back 30 years, would be sympathetic to a landowner out here in the sticks shooting a drone that was hovering.
          it just doesnt gell with the local zeitgeist.

          i hear stories occasionally about urbans larping as rednecks(“hunters”) trespassing shamelessly…and being confronted with shots at their feet.
          and then being chased off at gunpoint.
          sheriff listens to larpers complaint, and dismisses it out of hand, in paternalistic tone expected of such people:”well…yall shouldnta been there in the first damned place”.

      1. Jabura Basadai

        harlequin duck – have seen them in British Columbia and Washington state – they hang by saltwater – fwiw

  6. The Rev Kev

    ‘Peacemaker
    @peacemaket71
    🔥Documents show Biden’s State Department deliberately left Gonzalo Lira to die in a Ukrainian prison..‼️’

    One phone call. That is all it would have taken. Biden could have rang Zelensky, told him to put Lira on a train heading to Poland, and a deputation from the US Embassy along with a medical assessment team would have met him. But of course it never happened and you wonder about Nuland’s part in all this as she may have taken Lira’s criticisms of her personally. And the US Embassy knew what was going on but never got involved. This story is not over yet.

    ‘Know what’s going on.’

    1. ciroc

      It was the CIA that ran the SBU after the Euromaidan. So it is clear who ordered Lira’s arrest and execution.

  7. NotThePilot

    The U.S. Strategy of Controlled Anarchy: Syria, Ukraine, and Beyond Michael Hudson and Richard Wolff, Dialogue Works (Chuck L)

    I find myself agreeing much more with Richard Wolff in this discussion, and it ties into a more general thesis than Syria, though recent events finally solidified it in my mind. I know there’s a fondness in anti-imperial circles to see the US as the “empire of chaos”, and that definitely describes the results, but I’m starting to think that misunderstands the causes.

    To put it bluntly, if people are policy, where are all of these US organizations (CIA, State Dept., NED) supposedly recruiting from today? The same places as the media, the DNC and RNC, the think tanks, the corporate boards, correct? When viewed that way, do you really believe these people are capable of micro-managing any of these events?

    Does it really make sense that people, who are so mentally stuck in their bubble they can’t even win an election in their own country or understand why half the population is cheering an attentat, can micromanage factions in South Korea, Georgia, or Syria? Do we really believe the same mentally fragile people, who convinced themselves the Cubans were microwaving their brains with lasers, sat down and worked out a 5 year plan with a bunch of gnarly, al-Qaeda veterans? These people can’t even fix Boeing or Intel despite still having near monopolistic positions in their industries.

    In short, the US isn’t an empire of chaos, it’s an empire run by narcissistic and stupid people that just happen to have money. There is no plan and the chaos is actually a byproduct of the stupidity. More specific to the tactics, they can only A. bribe people or B. persuade their conspecifics in other countries.

    And the difference between A and B is what most people are missing, especially in Syria. Say I’m a Syrian rebel commander, and suddenly NATO shows up with stacks of cash and hundreds of suicidal Ukrainians to help, am I going to say no? Of course not, I’ll throw them at the machine gun nests instead of my own men. But that doesn’t mean for one second I’m “controlled”; in fact, it’s typically the opposite since I’m the one with a clue and options. And that’s a large part of why you see American proxy wars play out as they do, with the smart ones just switching sides and the gullible ones getting crushed in the endgame.

    P.S. more specific to the content of the discussion, mad respect for Hudson, but I think he’s discounting Iraq (even if the official state lays low at the current escalation level) and Yemen far too much in the military calculations. And that’s before you factor in Iran’s modern capabilities. Twenty years ago, the US had field armies stationed on both of Iran’s borders, fresh equipment, technological dominance, the full support of most Gulf states, a relatively unified population, and even then the neocons blinked. If the US & Israel try anything now, with even most of the non-Resistance Arabs quietly trying to get away from “America the Psycho Boyfriend”, it won’t be because it will work but because they’re delusional.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      You have a bit of category error in your comment, if only on a secondary matter.

      The CIA recruits, generally at Ivy or equivalent schools. They may also allow for application but my impression is (definitely in my day, not sure as to now) that recruitment was very much the main mode of getting new agency members.

      You get into State by application, which includes a pretty tough exam. I personally know people who did well at Harvard, and later in grad school and real life, who were very interested in becoming diplomats but dropped the idea when they understood the State Dept. screening process.

      If anyone has more current knowledge, I would VERY much appreciate hearing it!

      1. NotThePilot

        Ah, very fair point on that detail, and I definitely over-simplified there. And obviously, no institution rots through 100%. That said, I wouldn’t discount how much of a self-selection process has set in among the diplomatic corps.

        Funny enough, I actually started looking into the Foreign Service within the past decade during a directionless period, even filled out the application with personal essays, picked a track, and studied for the test you mentioned (it’s administered by Pearson now at relatively few centers and a real pain to sign up for).

        While I was going through the process though, I was also trying to get some more perspective from FSOs. The interactions were mainly over the internet (I don’t personally know any diplomats) so I don’t want to say it’s a rock-solid data-point, but the sense I came away with was that the vast majority are careerists that have swallowed the kool-aid. I also used the phrase “mentally fragile” above intentionally, more as a diagnosis than an insult, but I saw several examples of that.

        I was actually surprised how little people expressed a “Yes, I color within the lines… but as creatively as possible” attitude either (which is my impression of how the military officer corps manages to function). I saw barely any genuine hand-wringing over dissent cables or US policy either, mostly defensiveness. Almost all the critical complaints were about work-life balance or bad management, and for every critique, ten times as many pixels were spilled on how awesome US diplomacy is, how to get a cushy posting, or how to double-dip by renting out a house in NoVA while you’re overseas.

        Maybe the only problems people repeatedly acknowledged were being understaffed and that despite the open hiring process, the Foreign Service doesn’t reflect the US population, either in a DEI sense or in terms of skills / formal training. Overall, it left a really bad taste in my mouth and killed any expectations that I could influence anything positively from within. By the time Blinken had been Sec of State for a year and made it clear he was as bad as Pompeo, I finally decided to pull the plug.

      2. amfortas the hippie

        yeah. Dad said it wasnt the process of recruitment, nor where they found new people, that had changed so much, but the quality of the output of those ivy league places, etc.
        late 60’s, he somehow got into DIA in image analysis(that’s a rice paddy/that’s a field of poppies) after a lacklustr college experience at Blinn and Stephen F Austin.
        he admitted he was a quota hire from non-ivey.
        the bubble dwelling, near as i can tell, starts at birth, these days.
        and i aint talking about DEI or woke or whatever…but basic assumptions about the state of the world, the state of USA within it….but also basic skillset.
        so while Not The Pilot is likely right that the current crop of Masters of the Universe are morons, blinded by their assumptions…that wasnt always the case…i mean, when Dad was at Nasa(apollo 12 til skylab), the engineers and physicists and orbital mechanics guys all still carried around slide-rules…and the computer at the JSC was a 5 story building(ive been inside, when i was little….still there, last time i drove by).
        from what i can tell, we couldnt do any of that, today.

      3. Greg Taylor

        Last year, the CIA was recruiting at the Historically Black College where I work. Not remotely close to Ivy or equivalent. They’d also recruited in the late 80s and early 90s but not in between. The recruiter complained that nearly all students at all campuses were admitting to cheating (especially on-line classes) and that it was an instant rejection. I wondered about that criteria.

      4. Kouros

        Yeah, and? Those are not “decision makers”. As with the science or “risk assessment”, the analytical arm is completely seaparated from the “decision arm”, as to not be improperly influenced (as for the precautionary principle, that is a cursed word on which armies have been unleashed upon in the US to bring the idea down, idea akin with “communism”)…

        The apochriphal story of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy: (it was a tragedy completely avoidable).
        Engineering team assesses that frost ahas impatced some insulation rings sealing some propellent. Chief engineer is made lounch manager and given the management priorities (all political) and pushed to take the appropriate decission, according to the job’s priorities. Launch happens and less than 5 minutes later it is all a ball of fire…

      5. Laura in So Cal

        In the late 80’s, I took the foreign service exam and passed to the next step which was oral interviews (with live people all together in one room..imagine!). It was going well until we hit a question where you had to detail how you would handle a situation where following “the rules” might be opposed to what your conscience would indicate is the right thing…I basically said that I would do what I thought was ethical. I could tell that my answer wasn’t what they wanted hear..I still remember their expressions 35 years later. I washed out at that point.

      6. badphoton

        Based on what I saw and who I knew in my more radical younger days it was my experience that yes, the CIA recruited at Ivy’s. More for the idea that they probably shared a basic mindset that they could rely on. Fewer would ‘betray the pure faith’ once in the field. But they worried about the ones with more suspect backgrounds possibly ‘going native’. State foreign service selected for people with more skills and capabilities. But I think its been quite a while since ‘diplomacy’ was in the driver’s seat.

        I think part of the issue is that mostly these people don’t accomplish things directly. They work through other groups and locals. All of whom have their own agendas. And over the decades have figured out the con. The US can wield a big club if you get them on your side but is often pretty ham handed about if if their local proxies can’t deliver what they sold the US on.

    2. Louis Fyne

      CIA has a booth at the job fair for my fancy pants alma mater—just like everyone else. (Undoubtedly a very, very small number are recruited John LeCarre-style in the dead of night.)

      Very good friend of mine worked for the CIA before starting a family—doing Middle East analysis.

      Did a tour at the US embassy in a large Mideast country right after college—even though she had no background in the Mideast. Nothing like a paycheck to spurn a new interest, lol.

    3. ACPAL

      NotThePilot may be right, but from what I’ve seen creating chaos does not require micromanaging or a lot of intelligence, especially when a political leadership is already weak. Simple funding of a protest with a smattering of criminals paid to turn it into a riot can create a “color revolution.” If your goal is chaos you probably don’t care what that chaos looks like. If you don’t like the results you can always “rinse and repeat.”

      The CIA has many decades of experience in toppling governments around the world. They also have the assistance of Israel, notorious for being experts in assassinations, to give a push here and there. A fun movie to watch is “Charlie Wilson’s War.” Be sure to look for micromanaging there.

      1. NotThePilot

        In a weird way, I’m sort of agreeing with you that chaos is easy to create. Where I disagree is that it’s actually the goal. On the contrary, I think US institutions do genuinely try to reorder things to their liking. The chaos that results isn’t part of the plan, it’s a consequence of the plans and execution being so bad and short-sighted.

        So like in the example of Charlie Wilson’s War, much of the government probably genuinely believed the Afghans would thank America for personally ridding them of the Soviets for the next 100 years. When they toppled the government in Iraq, they really did believe they could just plop Ahmed Chalabi at a big desk and order the Iraqis around in perpetuity.

        Even if the US power elite act like they’re OK about the results or manage to pick up a few advantages from the wreckage, that doesn’t mean it’s part of the plan. It’s more like the Adam Neumann (the former WeWork CEO) version of statecraft. The US government is really screwing up on its own terms, but whenever that becomes clear, they still have enough money & influence to kick the can down the road. That’s also why the individuals in US power politics may come across as if they’re in control, when really they’re just blasé and insulated from consequences.

    4. ilsm

      I am reminded of the ugly American. Despite the accomplishment the plan never had the good of the locals in mind.

      Often pledging to the corrupt.

      The problem with Saigon from 1962 was corruption and unpopularity with the local villages.

      Despite the U.S. propaganda.

      Syria US sustained Sunni fundies maybe popular to Syrian Sunni fundies…..

  8. Louis Fyne

    >>>>Joe Biden’s pardons are a moral surrender Unherd

    (IMO) The Biden administration completely destroyed the idea of “good governance” for Normie-Americans, a concept at the heart of Progressivism since the LaFollette days 120 years ago.

    mRNA jab mandates, militarism, cronyism, corporate handouts, etc. Biden and his lackeys (with help from Nancy) took everything that as been wrong with US politics since 1993 and turned it up to 11.

    after-tax corporate profits went vertical in 2021 and is >50% (!!) higher than pre-Covid.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP

    1. Carolinian

      Perhaps we should be complaining less about what Pat Lang called the “Biden crime family” and more about Biden’s enablers. In The Godfather the Don says “I never wanted this for you. I thought you might become senator, president.”

      Welcome to America 2024. Coppola’s tale of post WW2 America was ahead of its time or perhaps timeless.

      Maybe the only real difference is that our post truth era takes a more flexible view of right and wrong. The Syrian head choppers are now freedom fighters and Hunter is pardoned. All about the PR.

  9. The Rev Kev

    ‘Dimitri Lascaris
    @dimitrilascaris
    In the annals of Canadian political history, few politicians have exhibited as much hypocrisy as Chrystia Freeland.
    Freeland has showered love and affection on Israel’s genocidal regime while constantly berating Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
    Moreover, Freeland’s signature ‘achievement’ was turning Canada into an even more abject vassal of Washington.
    Good riddance.’

    A coupla months ago Trudeau declared the list of some 900 Nazis who emigrated to Canada was classified. Apparently 80 years is not long enough to pass before this information sees the light of day. But what if Chrystia Freeland’s Nazi grandfather Michael Chomiak was on that list. So maybe she used her position to keep that list secret to protect her own family and her own political position. Saw a weird fact on Wikipedia. At home she talks Ukrainian with her own children. That doesn’t sound very Canadian to me, eh?

    1. daniel paquette

      Keep in mind, now that Freeland has resigned as Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister she is now free to run for the leadership of the party. A fun quirk of the Liberal Party is the Deputy PM cannot challenge the PM’s leadership. The PM uses the Deputy PM position to neuter any challengers.
      God help us if she assumes the leadership.

    2. danpaco

      Keep in mind, now that Freeland has resigned as Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister she is now free to run for the leadership of the party. A fun quirk of the Liberal Party is the Deputy PM cannot challenge the PM’s leadership. The PM uses the Deputy PM position to neuter any challengers.
      God help us if she assumes the leadership.

    3. jrkrideau

      Think of the Ukrainian equivalent of a rabid Zionist.

      I fell over this link today so I cannot vouch for it though it sounds legit and a good deal of what they say matches my knowledge.

      One of the speakers says that Freeland considers the Ukrainian Canadians the true Ukrainians. The ones in Ukraine have been a bit corrupted… Starts at roughly 19:14

  10. mrsyk

    “America’s allies are in trouble”, no kidding, not in the least because they’ve little left for sale.
    Western leader roulette, ironclad support for the “G” word thing, and the corporate self-looting, lol, not a good look.

    “Our time is almost up”, he said, “It’s all we’ve left lose.” K Kristofferson

  11. Daniil Adamov

    “Joe Biden’s pardons are a moral surrender”

    I was immediately reminded of this:

    In very truth, next evening Fouche, formerly president of the Jacobin Club, betakes himself to the radical club in the Rue du Bac. Here throughout the years of the reaction the heart of the revolution has continued beating. Here are to be found the very men to whom Robespierre, Danton, Marat, and Fouche himself used to make impassioned speeches. Since the fall of Robespierre and the defeat of Babeuf, the memory of the stormy days of the revolution has been kept alive only in the Club du Manege.

    But Fouche has no use for sentimentality, and can, whenever he likes, forget his past with formidable speed. The ex-professor of mathematics and physics among the Oratorians, when he measures the parallelogram of forces, takes only real forces into account and is not concerned with ideal ones. He knows that the day of effective republican ideas is over, and that the best republican leaders, the men of action, lie mouldering under the sod. The clubs have long since ceased to be anything more than talking-shops where people re-echo one another’s phrases. In this year 1799, quotations from Plutarch and patriotic tags are, like the assignats, a depreciated currency; too many slogans have been uttered, just as too many banknotes have been printed. Who knows better than the Minister of Police, the controller of public opinion, that France is weary of the lawyers and the orators and the innovators, weary of decrees and statutes? All that the country wants now is tranquility, order, peace, and stable finances. Invariably after a few years of revolution, as after a few years of war, after anything which has led to an ecstatic outburst of community feeling, the irresistible egoism of the individual and the family comes once more into its own.

    That very evening a republican, one of these “depreciated banknotes,” is making an inflammatory speech, when the door is thrust open, and Fouchd in his ministerial uniform enters, accompanied by gendarmes. As the members of the club spring to flieir feet, he sizes them up with his coldly observant gaze. What a poor lot they are in the way of adversaries! The real effectives of the revolution, its spiritual heroes, and its desperadoes, have long since been laid to rest. Only the chatterers remain, and one resolute gesture will suffice to scatter them to the winds. Without hesitation, he strides up to ffie platform, and mounts it. For the first time now after six years the Jacobins hear his chilly tones once more, but not as formerly voicing the praises of liberty and inciting to hatred against despots, for now this lean-visaged man declares in the fewest possible words that the club is closed. So great is their astonishment, that no one makes a word of protest, no one offers the slightest resistance. They have always sworn war to the knife against the enemies of liberty, but they do not make their words good tonight. They merely slink away in silence. Fouche has made no mistake. Men worthy of the name must be fought, but chatterers can be put to flight with the wave of the hand.

    When the hall is empty, he walks quietly out of it, and locks the door behind him.

    – Stefan Zweig, “Joseph Fouche”

    Not that the Democrats are Jacobins, or Trump Fouche (for better or worse, in both cases). Nevertheless, I think Zweig was writing about something similar with respect to those surviving Jacobins.

  12. ChrisFromGA

    As we close out the year the Dread Pirate Powell is about to make a gigantic policy error.

    The Fed has no business cutting rates with Nasdaq 20k and BTC 100k. This reminds me of Greenspan’s policy error in 1998 when, fearing the Y2K disaster that never came, he cut rates and kicked off the final innings of the dot com boom.

    Can we make this fool walk the plank?

    #PolicyError

    1. Wukchumni

      Well, speakin’ on see farin’ journeys, perhaps the bloody fray in ‘oarse latitudes for garage mahals ‘as prompted said privateer to dive! in order to rekindle the ‘ousin’ bubble, arr, matety

    2. mrsyk

      Make no bones, this series of interest rate cuts is an attempted rescue of PE and the over-leveraged crowd.

      1. ChrisFromGA

        Bingo!

        We know that the Fed works for private banking interests.

        The funny thing is, though, it isn’t working out so well for the rest of the market. Edifice wrecks keep on piling up, with office CMBS delinquency now at the highest rate since the GFC:

        https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/30/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-to-10-4-just-below-worst-of-financial-crisis-cre-meltdown-fastest-2-year-spike-ever/

        And then the 10-year yield, which more or less sets long term mortgage rates, has stubbornly gone the wrong way. So the garage mahals, as our friend Wuk puts it, aren’t getting any cheaper as that monthly nut looks more like a monthly ten-ton battleship anchor around yer neck.

        1. mrsyk

          It occurs to me that it should be no surprise that, if supply and demand are defined by investment opportunity and not the requirements a functioning society, inflation is decoupled from interest rate policy.
          Because markets

        2. Wukchumni

          It’s all coming to a head, our pretty little necks.

          …a Blame Duck who could care less about his legacy and more about outdoing Cartman saying ‘I do what I want!’

          And then the Repermation cometh 33 days hence, with Benedict Donald backpedaling on his heels on promises more than Ginger Rogers ever did.

          And I’m always keen on that whole past is prologue gig, and if Grover was the template, he assumes the Presidency a 2nd time only to be there barely in office when the Panic of 1893 hits hard!

          American coins dated from 1893 to 1895 are one of the rarest dated coins from 1850 onward, in a country where most of the money was coins, they didn’t mint many-as demand died, in what we later called a Great Depression, in lieu of starting a panic.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1893

      2. JP

        Not a direct correlation but lower interest rates mean more bank loans, which means more currency in circulation by money creation. That is not in itself inflationary because it is tied to future productivity and is fiscally generative to the economy as long as it is good debt. That is, the housing bubble was bad debt because the loans were cooked and packaged and someone ended up holding the bag, which subtracted from the economy.

        Govt stimulus, on the other hand is treasury financed by bond sales and is money printing. It can also be characterized as good debt if it is issued in a recession (per Keynes) and bad debt if issued to juice an already recovering economy as it dilutes the money supply and can spark inflation.

        PE reduction in the absence of a robust market is best achieved by a tax break for corporations. That is basically taking from the poor and giving to the rich. In his last administration Trump engineered a tax break for corporations in an already robust economy. It did not dilute the money supply but the over heated economy fell hard in the pandemic. Congress sat on their hands instead of enacting fiscal solutions and left it to the Fed to employ monetary solutions in an economy that already had to much currency in circulation. That is the mess the Biden administration inherited. The money accrued to the wealthy because there was no fiscal policy enacted to soak up money at the top and feed it to the bottom.

        The Fed does not work for private banks. Are there public banks? Oh, that’s right, the Fed is the central bank, a public entity, the only one. Their concern is not the stock market even though Trump wants to change that. The Fed has a dual mandate and only one tool with which to work. Congress has many tools but chooses to spend when the economy is good and decry debt when the economy needs it and let the Fed take the blame for the consequences.

  13. The Rev Kev

    “The assessment that Greece has been an ‘astonishing success’ beggars belief”

    It all depends of what the criteria are. If the population have been demoralized, the local government is totally subjugated to the wishes of the EU and the US, if the unions have been weakened, then you could consider that Greece is actually a success story. Every thing else is considered irrelevant. Probably find that the same people consider the UK, France and Germany to be success stories as well.

    1. CA

      Australia’s climate:

      China has been spending some $150 billion yearly on water conservancy, and Australia needs to pay attention and follow:

      https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-12-17/Eastern-Australian-waterbird-numbers-fall-50-amid-dry-conditions-1zpfhlZdYiI/p.html

      December 17, 2024

      Eastern Australian waterbird numbers fall 50% amid dry conditions

      Waterbird numbers in eastern Australia have fallen by half in one year amid dry conditions.

      The latest annual survey of waterbirds in eastern Australia, led by the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Sydney, spotted 287,231 birds between August and October, down 50.4 percent from 579,641 birds in 2023.

      The survey, conducted every year by researchers and government collaborators since 1983, covers one-third of the Australian mainland and is one of the most important datasets on the health of biodiversity in river and wetland areas…

      1. skippy

        Check the rain fall numbers in Eastern Australia to date, dams are at capacity+, with cyclone season at the door. Completely different story for the interior and the heat for it and south is very high. Its not so much a matter of long persistent periods of rain but, amount of heavy rain per hr on a constant basis, nothing can dry and the humidity in the air is epic.

        All this extra energy in the atmosphere is making things very dynamic. Scheduling for work inside or outside is day by day and hour by hour at the moment.

        1. CA

          “Check the rainfall numbers in Eastern Australia to date…”

          I appreciate this; which is why water conservancy in Australia must be treated as an entirely, just as in China.

          Also, look at Pangu weather; an AI forecasting system developed by Huawei. The system is precise over days but also precise locally. Remarkably fast and runs on ordinary computers. Fishermen use the system off the southern coasts of Africa.

        2. CA

          https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202404/16/WS661dd61ca31082fc043c22ca.html

          April 16, 2024

          AI-powered forecasting proves a hit
          Accuracy of Huawei’s Pangu weather prediction system wins global fans
          By Yan Dongjie

          Huawei’s artificial intelligence-powered Pangu weather prediction system is making waves with its potential to revolutionize weather forecasting, with high-resolution global forecasts for locations roughly 27 kilometers apart generated in under 10 seconds.

          Tian Qi, the leader of Pangu’s research and development team, said it uses neural network models for weather forecasting systems and achieves higher prediction accuracy than the world’s first similar AI weather forecasting model, Four-CastNet, which was released by Nvidia in 2022.

          The World Bank says global weather forecasting may generate economic benefits worth $162 billion a year. Research from the China Meteorological Administration indicates that approximately 40 percent of China’s GDP is related to weather and climate.

          One example, Tian said, is wind power generation, where reducing wind speed forecast errors by half a meter per second could save the nation economic losses of 23.25 billion yuan ($3.22 billion) a year and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 25 million metric tons.

          “Accurate weather forecasting is of significant importance for wind power generation, precipitation forecasting, earthquake disaster reduction and guiding agricultural production,” Tian said, adding that the breakthrough can become a crucial driving force for the advancement of new quality productive forces…

        3. CA

          https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06185-3

          July 5, 2023

          Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks
          By Kaifeng Bi, Lingxi Xie, Hengheng Zhang, Xin Chen, Xiaotao Gu & Qi Tian

          Abstract

          Weather forecasting is important for science and society. At present, the most accurate forecast system is the numerical weather prediction (NWP) method, which represents atmospheric states as discretized grids and numerically solves partial differential equations that describe the transition between those states. However, this procedure is computationally expensive. Recently, artificial-intelligence-based methods have shown potential in accelerating weather forecasting by orders of magnitude, but the forecast accuracy is still significantly lower than that of NWP methods. Here we introduce an artificial-intelligence-based method for accurate, medium-range global weather forecasting…

  14. flora

    re: Drones.

    DHS Secretary Mayorkas has his hand out for more power. From twtr-X.

    🚨Mayorkas insists that the NJ drones are recreational or commercial, and people are seeing them more because they were recently allowed to fly at night.

    ‘ “Let me set the record straight here, George. There are thousands of drones flown every day in the United States. Recreational drones, commercial drones. That is the reality.”

    ‘ “And in September of 2023, the Federal Aviation Administration, the FAA, changed the rules so that drones could fly at night.”

    ‘”And that may be one of the reasons why now people are seeing more drones than they did before, especially from dawn to dusk.”

    https://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1868303280956113093

    So, why does DHS Sec. Mayorkas want more power? (rhetorical question)

  15. upstater

    Re. Zitron: it is overall a good essay, but I take exception to this:

    Their incentive isn’t really to make you make any one choice, other than one that involves you staying on their platform or interacting with an advertisement for somebody else’s, and the heavy flow of political — and particularly conservative — content is a result of platforms knowing that’s what keeps people doing stuff on the platform.

    It does force a choice, TINA. It presents electoral feces as some sort of “choice” and waters a garden sown with acquiescence and despair. Big tech is the glove and the hand is the deep state management of puppet strings. Big tech is doing anything that is necessary to maintain current power structures and stifle dissent. This is the mission. It works like excessive alcohol and drugs.

    1. amfortas the hippie

      i enjoyed the rant, yesterday afternoon…although it occurred to me that i really couldnt relate all that much,lol.
      what he’s talking about is why i abandoned social media altogether, some 10(?) years ago.
      i dont get popups, because i use a lil snippet of code that ive grokked is sorta unmentionable.
      i dont use email, save for very rarely…and i have a junk email for getting past paywalls on project syndicate, et alia.
      and hell, i only use cash…dont have a checking account, let alone a debit card.
      have no debt, save to the hardware gal.
      and only have a cell fone at all to keep abreast of what my boys are doing.

      i tried the dern dating apps…but too much $ to even attempt to get results(and all those farmers only gals “love horses”, but do not want to live like i do)
      i have netflix, but have pretty much abandoned hbo, amazon, etc.(netflix has no ads, as yet..and i use boys’ accts anyway).
      i dont know what most of the platforms and apps he rants about are.

      i understand totally that i am anomalous,lol….but aside from my lack of a woman-friend, i find it rather easy to get by without being plugged in.
      my brother, otoh, is plugged in totally yo all that mess for his job. since he’s been at that company, he’s ranted along similar lines when i get him stoned…and, altho he hates hearing it, there is a choice, here…he could choose to modify his lifestyle so that he doesnt need to work for such egregores.
      theres a lot of peein-off-porch envy within him,lol.
      but he cannot bring himself to see the choice…instead convincing himself, continually, that he has no choice.
      he’s younger than me, and has had excellent healthcare for a long time…but i expect to outlive him.
      i think it was Twain that said “never take a job that requires a new wardrobe”….and thats how i have felt for most of my life.
      i’d rather be poor than deal with the wall to wall, 24/7/365 stress he deals with…and for what?
      an 800k ticky tacky house, a new car or 2 every year,and unhappiness.

      of course, to be honest, what im doing is path dependent…started down this road to autarky because we deemed it the best course for me, given my physical issues as well as my psych and emotional profile.
      but when confronted with Nietzsche’s Demon, if i had to do it again, i wouldnt alter course…save for a few minor details.
      brother cant say the same….he has a list of things he’s do differently.

      1. Robert Gray

        > i think it was Twain that said “never take a job that requires a new wardrobe”…

        Twain. Yeah, that makes sense. Somehow in the back of my mind I had that quip coming from H.D. Thoreau.

        1. flora

          Yes. Thoreau said the same thing in his book ‘Walden’. Maybe that was a common sentiment among the American 19th C. anti-imperialists. Twain was an anti-imperialist.

          “I say, beware of all enterprises that require new clothes, and not rather a new wearer of clothes.”
          ― Henry David Thoreau, Walden

  16. DJG, Reality Czar

    Holy shinola, Yankees, are you planning to destroy one of the great, defining characteristics of what it means to be an American? Yep, birthright citizenship.

    Trump girds article at The Hill.

    This idea that birthright citizenship is “abused” as at the level of the so-called partial birth abortions. Just make up a crime and then repress it. Repeat.

    There’s this: ‘The 14th Amendment, which states adopted in 1868 in the aftermath of the Civil War, states that “all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”’

    Seems pretty darn clear to me. And what was the fourteenth amendment addressing? That black people born in the United States were not recognized by the law as U.S. citizens. You know, Dred Scott decision.

    One notices that the amendment doesn’t have ifs, ands, and buts. Senza se e senza ma.

    Fancy that. I guess that the Civil War was indeed about more than tariffs and differences in cornbread recipes.

    Yet, as ever, Americans just can’t get over their racism: “Those seeking a new and more restrictive interpretation of the language argue Native Americans who were born on reservations during the time when the amendment was ratified were not subject to the jurisdiction of the United States and therefore not due the full rights of citizenship even though they were born within the country’s boundaries.”

    Ahhhh, yes, for similar reasons, Native Americans were not citizens, largely because of virulent racism and because a genocide was going on. (But let’s not talk about genocide. Let’s look forward, not backward.)

    1. JMH

      The 14th amendment could not be clearer or I have missed some the hidden subtlety in “all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.” At the time of the amendment there were tribes that arguably were not “subject to the jurisdiction of the United States” and were in fact actively contesting any jurisdiction but their own.Also, there was the notion built into the Constitution that the Tribes were separate nations hence the language in the Amendment, which does not obviate the fact that was rapidly becoming a fiction and that the genocide was in full swing. The anti-uncontrolled immigration crowd is riding this hobby horse as if it were the source of all ills. The inability or refusal of both parties to enact sensible legislation added to the demand for the cheapest and most easily intimidated labor on the part of our employers is at the root. The WEF borderless world global economy to the benefit of the utlra-rich and greedy exacerbates the situation. Actual attention to national interests by reasonable laws with vigorous enforcement could solve the problem. This will not happen as too many financial and political rice bowls would be shattered.

      While I have little faith in the Supreme Court, there just may the votes in favor of the plain meaning of the English language, one of which will not be that of Sam Alito.

      1. ACPAL

        While children born within the US are citizens their parents are not. It’s a policy matter that the parents of “anchor babies” are allowed to stay. The alternative is to ship the parents away and let them leave the babies with friends/relatives or take them with them. Trump can change this policy. Just because the baby is a citizen doesn’t mean the Birth, Social Security, and other records can’t include words like “Born of Illegal Immigrants” which would water down their “citizenship” status. This would be a policy change.

        As for the clarity of the US Constitution try to follow the machinations around the country as politicians try to ban firearms even though “”the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed” has been affirmed by the SCOTUS. So much for the Constitution and law.

  17. Wukchumni

    The dogma chip inside her head
    Gets switched to overload
    And a teenage murderess is gonna go to school today
    She’s gonna make them wish they’d stayed at home

    And daddy doesn’t understand it
    He always said she was good as gold
    And he can see no reasons
    ‘Cause there are no reasons
    What reason do you need to be shown?

    I don’t like Mondays
    (Tell me why)
    I don’t like Mondays
    (Tell me why)
    I don’t like Mondays
    I wanna shoot, ooh, the whole day down

    The Wi-Fi machine is oh so keen
    And it transmits to a waiting world
    Her mother feels so shocked, father’s world is rocked
    And their thoughts turn to their own little girl
    On the verge of sweet sixteen, ain’t that peachy keen
    Now it ain’t so neat to admit defeat
    They can see no reasons
    ‘Cause there are no reasons
    What reasons do you need, oh oh oh oh?

    I don’t like Mondays
    (Tell me why)
    I don’t like Mondays
    (Tell me why)
    I don’t like Mondays
    I wanna shoot, ooh, the whole day down
    Down, down, shoot it all down

    And all the shooting’s stopped in the Abundant Life school now
    She saved the last bullets for herself
    And school’s out early and soon we be learning
    And the lesson today is how to die

    And then the P/A crackles the all-clear and society tackles
    With the problems and the hows and whys
    And we can see no reasons
    ‘Cause there are no reasons
    What reason do you need to die, die, oh oh oh?

    And the dogma chip inside her head get switched to overload
    And a teenage murderess is gonna go to school today
    She is going to make them wish they had stayed at home
    And daddy doesn’t understand it
    He always said she was good as gold
    And he can see no reasons
    Cause there are no reasons
    What reason do you need to be shown

    I don’t like Mondays
    (Tell me why)
    I don’t like Mondays
    (Tell me why)
    I don’t like
    I don’t like
    (Tell me why)
    I don’t like Mondays
    (Tell me why)
    I don’t like
    I dont’t like
    (Tell me why)
    I don’t like Mondays
    (Tell me why)
    I don’t like Mondays
    I wanna shoot, oooh, the whole day down
    Oooh oooh oooh

    I Don’t Like Mondays, by the Boomtown Rats

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPtu5V3kHTM

  18. Jeffrey Spaulding

    The ABC defamation settlement was all about discovery. ABC settled before the discovery process because ABC did not want Trump’s legal team to drag that discovery out in public light.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I appreciate your comments, and don’t mean to sound obtuse, but I don’t understand how your comment relates to the link. The issue that despite all the whining, the legal standard for proving defamation in the US is very high. It is not just whether the statements are true or not (accurate statements are never defamatory in the US; that is not the case in plenty of places around the world) but also that the party making them exhibited actual malice (this per the precedent in the Palin defamation suit) or (I believe) reckless indifference to the truth. So Team Trump would be able to root around to see if the relevant TDS team exhibited a desire to get Trump, and you can be pretty sure they did.

      Perhaps you do not realize that normally, discovery is the big secret weapon of media defendants. The last thing that most people who have had the press say things about them that they think are unfair or untrue is to have a journalist rooting around in their files to prove that what they said was accurate. But Trump has been so heavily scrutinized and trash-talked for the last ten years that there’s no downside for him.

      All this pious handwringing about the intrepid press being now possibly fearful is offensive. Trump’s history is full of bad facts. But instead of sticking to those, too many in the media went full bore TDS and engaged in hysterical exaggerations.

      1. lyman alpha blob

        Indeed. How hard would it have been for ABC to have just stuck with the facts here?!!?? Funny, the FT article doesn’t suggest that maybe the solution here would be for “journalists” to stop making sh*t up.

        The press and elected officials fearful of being dragged through the courts have no one to blame but themselves. And there is a complete lack of self awareness they all spent many years doing exactly this to Trump to defeat him politically – bringing novel court cases with the full throated backing of the majority of the press, in the tank for the Democrat party. Turns out elections have consequences – here’s hoping payback is a real [family blog].

        And to think, all they ever had to do to defeat Trump was provide some concrete material benefits to the American people. They’d rather lose to Trump than win with Bernie, so that’s what they get, good and hard.

  19. JohnA

    Re Ukraine assassinates Russian chemical weapons chief in Moscow bombing Politico

    Along with Politico, all the British mainstream media are unquestioningly regurgitating the Ukrainian claim that Russia has been using chemical weapons in Ukraine, without any proof being provided to support this claim. Stenographers, nothing more, nothing less. And literally nothing about the US bio and chemicals weapons laboratories in Ukraine discovered by Russia that even cookie monster Nuland admitted existed.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Dima at Military Summary pointed out that the fact that Ukraine took credit for this hit = Russia can designate Ukraine a terrorist state. That in turn = no negotiations.

      From Ukraine’s perspective, is this a bug or a feature?

      1. JohnA

        A former Tory MP and soldier, Tobias Ellwood, who lost his seat in the last election, clownishly claims the deed ‘strengthens Ukraine’s negotiating position’. This strongly suggests British hands were heavily involved. Ellwood paints both sides as jockeying for position as they wait for Trump to take office and make them negotiate! Utterly deluded.

        https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1869003781901631570

        1. JMH

          Ukraine does not have a negotiating position absent the backing of US/EU/ NATO/Collective West, which, of course, it has. But what is the position of the Collective West beyond Russia must be weakened/defeated/broken into tiny pieces and V.V.Putin must be banished to outer darkness. Maximalist demands with the certain promise that the ultimate goal will never be changed. As evidence for this attitude, I cite the more than a decade aim of overthrowing the Assads, although I doubt the Collective West envisioned the dog’s breakfast they have created.

          1. Ignacio

            At some point Ukraine will be left to its own devices. Yet, legally speaking, it is Ukraine and only Ukraine, with or without backing, the only country to negotiate with Russia. Not Zelenskyy, he is out of bounds to negotiate. The Ukrainian regime is now internally propagating the idea that there cannot be negotiations “because Russia would take the opportunity to strengthen its military”. This was at least the “reason” provided by a few soldiers in South Donetsk to a Spanish journalist as published yesterday at El Pais (in Spanish, i won’t search for the link).

            Negotiations are not in the roadmap.

      2. hk

        Probably a feature: if no nwgotiagion, then they think they can keep NATO stuck forever. Of course, Trump can theoretically audit Ukraine, fond that it’s engabed in myriad crimes against US (probably true), and declare them terrorist also, but thsy’s gping to cause a lot of political upbeaval (or, really, anything approaching that.) So many people are invested in Ukraine that there will be a lot of problems…

    2. Revenant

      It’s worse than no proof, the charges themselves are fatuous. The claim is the Russians used a lachrymatory agent that made Ukrainians cough and cry! So CS gas is against the Geneva convention is it? But it is OK for the Met to use on protestors in London…?

      1. vao

        Last time I read about it (a long time ago), there were a number of weapons that are prohibited in wars, but whose usage is not forbidden for police actions: tear gases, incapacitating gases (the kind that the Russians used during a massive hostage-taking event in a theatre in 2002 — more than a hundred hostages died because of it), chemicals (such as the infamous “skunk” liquid that Israelis often spray at protesters), blinding or deafening weapons, all sorts of “non-lethal” weapons, even dum-dum bullets…

        1. Revenant

          I have the same recollection of that mismatch, vao. My point was rhetorical (but clearly not well expressed): there’s a war on, with clearly admitted use of anti-personnel mines and chemical weapons (home filled drone bombs) etc. by the Ukraine, blatant attacks on civilians in Russia, torturing POW’s with drone bomb drops etc. and the best they can accuse Russia of is the technicallity of using tear gas that is legal when their NATO allies use it on protestors. It’s all very weak tea.

          Any breach of the rules plays into the other sides hands, however slight, but this accusation of using “chemical weapons” undermines the severity of the charge.

          One wonders whether the general was taken out for his record at the OPCW of denouncing US fraud in Syria with similar accusations rather than for any Ukraine-related reasons. Syria is getting a reboot so why not also remove the people who saw through the previous false flags, so we can get on with some new ones…?

    3. jrkrideau

      The non-existent Russian chemical weapons are being made by the missing DPRK troops who They are based in Erehwon-grad just outside of Kazan. /sarc (Why do I worry that this may be in the NYT tomorrow? )

      Tomorrow’s headline: Russian Special Forces riding large flying pigs attack Dnipro in daring daylight raid.

      As far as I can see much/most of the mainstream Anglo press feels free to dream up anything as long as it is negative towards Russia.

  20. joe murphy

    As far as the Unheard article:
    “You think of Mandela and Navalny, men whose willingness to sacrifice their lives for truth and for their societies offers a light at the end of history’s dark tunnel.”
    I find it to be a stretch to compare Mandela and Navalny.
    It’s really just more of Russia/Putin bad.

  21. Wukchumni

    $4.01k update:

    You know how it feels to have an Olympic gold medal placed around your neck whilst on a pedestal?

    Those of us Bitcoin investors who got in on the ground floor @ Winco are exhibiting grins that would make a Cheshire Cat envious of make believe money-that grin reappears.

    It’s been quite the ride from $56k to near total despair @ $14k where frankly I was on the verge of slitting my risks and being done with it, to $108k, bay-bee!

  22. ChrisFromGA

    Free for all

    Sung to the tune of, “Free for all” by Ted Nugent

    Never before has such lebensraum
    Opened up for me
    My bombs from skies, they could cut Syria in two
    And I just can’t let it be
    Well, it’s a free for all, and I heard it said
    We will fuel more strife
    Mistakes are nigh, and Bibi’s high
    On his own supply tonight

    (uh)

    See the Sultan there with his Cheshire grin
    Bibi’s got his eyes on you
    Shake your headchoppers in his face and there’s no telling what he’ll do
    Well, looky here, you sweet young thug, the map is in his hands
    When in doubt, he’ll whip it out, and bust out the Ottomans!

    (It’s a free for all! Yeah it’s a free for all)

    Here we go! Look out below! They’re on the prowl tonight
    When it’s said and done, they’ll have their fun
    They can chew anything they bite
    Come one, come all, to a vampire’s ball
    The invitation’s there
    Joe’s asleep and the doo-doo’s deep
    There’s no rules anywhere
    It’s a free for all

    {Ted Nugent guitar solo}

    Never before has such lebensraum
    Opened up for me
    My bombs from skies, they could cut Syria in two
    And I just can’t let it be
    Well, it’s a free for all, and I heard it said
    You can bet your life
    Mistakes are nigh, and Bibi’s high
    It’s in the air tonight

    it’s a free for all!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFOvY3tFWbU

  23. Wukchumni

    The worst cases of TDS i’m personally aware of, are all up over in the Gulag Hockeypelago, where Trudeau must go!

    Speaking for myself only, welcome to the Decembris Movement, Justin…

  24. lyman alpha blob

    RE: Never Forgive Them

    Great article, and I will take this opportunity to thank NC for NOT changing the site format and NOT constantly exchanging newish bells with even newer whistles, whether they are needed or not. It’s one of the reasons I’m still here reading daily after many years.

    1. John Wright

      I try to help an 86 year old neighbor with her computer, printer, tv and cable system.

      With several remotes, interruptions in service, there is always something wrong.

      She even has a stand alone Bose radio/cd player that requires a working remote to function. That was fixed when the remote was found buried in a recliner.

      I elicited a smile when I asked her “how many times have you heard someone say “can you complicate that?””

    2. Acacia

      +100 !

      NC site design is great. Colors and Optima font are very pleasing.

      And Zitron’s rant is right on. It’s just shocking how unspeakably horrible the web experience has become.

    3. griffen

      It’s a craptastic, fantastic method for using and abusing a customer base. However in the case of certain proprietors like the ginormous Meta, I have found some occasional better options or offerings of the “lite” category….All the info but much less of the frustrating complexity. But I am decidedly not in the targeted age of demographics for any of the social media companies, or just not much anymore.

      I don’t like it anymore than you or anyone I suppose, after reading that epic column. Which in retrospect pairs up well with an economic ranting ( if you will ) by Charles H Smith… The various levels of horrid, shorter useful lives of many things compared to 40 or 50 years ago…

  25. Hickory

    I am surprised that Palestinian hospital shown in the tweet had electricity given the intensity of bombing I keep reading about. I keep reading about basic utilities being unavailable. Does anyone know about this? Is electricity still available in some areas on and off?

    1. CA

      Nothing whatsoever is important beyond completely and immediately stopping the Israeli attacks in Gaza. Nothing is important beyond immediately saving Palestinian lives in Gaza.

      Stop the destruction of Palestinian life.

  26. Matthew

    My daughter insisted that the glorious video of the Chinese princess snuggling with the giant snowy owl was fake AF. I worry that that might be the case with Catwings there. . .

    1. vao

      Dall-E was launched in 2021, Midjourney and StableDiffusion were introduced in 2022. The rule of thumb is therefore to distrust every image produced after 2021.

      Video AI generators became available in 2023, so a similar rule applies. As for text, Chat GPT-1 dates back to 2018.

      Of course, Photoshop had already made images suspect, and text generators were used long before the LLM ones. Somebody more knowledgeable about the history of those tools may provide a refinement of those milestones, i.e. even earlier cutoff dates.

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