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Links 12/21/2024

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Scientists Developed a Questionnaire to Identify if Your Cat Is a Psychopath ScienceAlert (Chuck L)

Dog Arthritis Treatment Under Fire After Reports of Severe, Even Fatal, Side Effects Gizmodo (Kevin W)

Saints for Supper London Review of Books (Anthony L)

How the novel became a laboratory for experimental physics aeon (Dr. Kevin)

Journal that published faulty black plastic study removed from science index ars technica (Dr. Kevin)

Mosh pit nappy, designed to avoid queues at gig loos, sells out Sky News (Dr. Kevin)

Bird Flu Has Hit California Dairies So Hard That They’re Calling It ‘Covid for Cows’ New York Times

” rel=”nofollow”>How America Lost Control of the Bird Flu, Setting the Stage for Another Pandemic KFF Health News (Paul R)

Climate/Environment

Your gadgets are actually carbon sinks — for now Grist

China?

China’s Overseas Investment Adds to Cash Exodus Weighing on Yuan Bloomberg

China and Sweden board bulker suspected of Baltic cable ‘sabotage’ Tradewinds News

NPR investigation of a Chinese celebrity dissident leads news orgs to retract stories NPR

Honda and Nissan to begin merger talks amid EV competition Nikkei

Koreas

South Korean won hits 15-year low as hawkish Fed, domestic politics weigh Reuters

Africa

Recognizing Somaliland: A geopolitical game-changer for West Asia? The Cradle (Chuck L)

South Sudan’s economic crisis threatens its fragile peace Economist

South of the Border

Chávez, Spirituality and Revolution: A Conversation with Joel Suárez (Part I) Venezuelanalysis (Robin K)

O Canada

Faced with turmoil, a defiant Trudeau hangs on – for now BBC

A perfect storm for the Canadian dollar Think.ing

European Disunion

Germany and France are in crisis – is the next global financial crash brewing? Guardian

Energy challenges for Europe mount as Russian LNG imports rise, Norway weighs export cuts. FirstPost

Trump Threatens Tariffs If EU Doesn’t Buy More US Oil and Gas Bloomberg

Backlash builds as Elon Musk endorses Germany’s far right Politico (Kevin W)

VW cuts 35,000 jobs – factories remain open Tagesschau via machine translation (guurst)

A matter of state: The politics of German anti-anti-Semitism Wolfgang Streeck, SAGE Journals (Kevin W)

France’s Debt Grows Further In Challenge To New PM Barrons

Solar Firm Collapse Reverberates Through Danish Financial System Bloomberg

Old Blighty

UK Suffers Worst November for Car Production Since 1980 Bloomberg

UK borrowing costs climb as ‘stagflation’ fear stalks gilt market Financial Times

Israel v. the Resistance

Israel’s Genocide Day 440: New reports of mass killings in Gaza surface Mondoweiss

THE NEW CEASEFIRE EQUATION Seymour Hersh. Robin K: “Saudis rebuild Gaza–so Israel can “mow the grass” following reconstruction whenever it chooses?”

Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem Assesses Developments in Lebanon and Syria Resistance News

Iran key services shut as rial plunges amid energy crisis, regional tension Aljazeera

New Not-So-Cold War

Results of the Year with Vladimir Putin President of Russia

Yuzhmash and Oreshnik Demystified Amerikanets (Dr. Kevin) and a later Mea Maxima Culpa. Hhhm.

Medley Report: Europe’s Descent, Oreshnik, and More Simplicius

Russia pummels Kiev in response to US & UK missile attack on Rostov Mike Hampton

Russia Taps Soviet-Era Stockpiles as Armored-Vehicle Supply Dwindles Wall Street Journal

Syraqistan

Russian largely halts activities at Syria’s Hmeimim air base Anadolu Agency

U.S. lifts bounty on Syria’s interim leader amid diplomatic outreach Washington Post

Trump 2.0

Cutting Government Is Easy… If You Go After McKinsey Matt Stoller

Ten Years After Normalization With Cuba, Trump Hardliners Take Cuba Back In Time Ryan Grim

Trump appoints vocal critic of pope as envoy to Vatican Anadolu Agency. He really can’t restrain himself.

Biden

Why Bidenism Failed Jacobin (Robin K)

8 Reasons Congress Deserves Raises Babylon Bee

Senate passes bill to boost Social Security benefits for some The Hill

Our No Longer Free Press

Scoop: Top editors stiff the Washington Post Axios

Mr. Market is Moody

Renewed inflation fears stalk central bankers as markets shudder Financial Times

Antitrust

Readers, aren’t these inhalers also used for COPD?

Mark Cuban: A Master Disrupter for American Healthcare Eric Topol (Dr. Kevin)

AI

The Next Great Leap in AI Is Behind Schedule and Crazy Expensive Wall Street Journal

Guillotine Watch

It’s a Mistake to Charge Luigi Mangione With Terrorism New York Times

Did the NYPD’s perp walk of Luigi Mangione backfire? Gothamist (Kevin w)

Class Warfare

Plumbing poverty: More people living without running water in US cities since global financial crisis PhysOrg

Antidote du jour. From Kije H, admittedly quite a while ago: “This monk seal visits the beach we live on pretty often. They come ashore to rest.”

And a bonus (Chuck L):

A second bonus (Chuck L):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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146 comments

  1. Antifa

    Christmas Schmalz
    (melody borrowed from Deck The Halls  by Thomas Oliphant, 1862)

    Christmas leaves me melancholy
    Fa la la la la, la la la la
    All those films by young Macaulay
    Fa la la la la, la la la la
    Office punch that’s far from sterile
    Fa la la, la la la, la la la
    Shopping malls where things get feral
    Fa la la la la, la la la la

    Stay at home if you’re desirous
    Fa la la la la, la la la la
    Of avoiding the next virus
    Fa la la la la, la la la la
    Families fly home all together
    Fa la la, la la la, la la la
    Airport queues and nasty weather
    Fa la la la la, la la la la

    Days go by like slow molasses
    Fa la la la la, la la la la
    Football fans parked on their asses
    Fa la la la la, la la la la
    Wife says I’m a real trendsetter
    Fa la la, la la la, la la la
    No sane man will wear that sweater
    Fa la la la la, la la la la
    Fa la la la la, la la la la

    Reply ↓
    1. Stephen V

      I say leave cats alone and work on the humans first !
      Quote”
      https://Despite its importance historically and contemporarily, psychopathy is not recognized in the current Diagnostic and Statistical Manual …pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23620353/
      Turns out to be quite problematic.

      Reply ↓
      1. Steve H.

        DSM-IV:

        301.7 Antisocial Personality Disorder

        This pattern has also been referred to as psychopathy, sociopathy, or dyssocial
        personality disorder. Because deceit and manipulation are central features…

        Reply ↓
  3. The Rev Kev

    Working link for “How America Lost Control of the Bird Flu, Setting the Stage for Another Pandemic” article at-

    https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/bird-flu-spread-cattle-poultry-pandemic-cdc/

    I’m going to come out and say that Bird Flu was allowed to spread as it was an election year and the Biden regime did not want a major distraction like this. It was hard enough burying the Covid Pandemic. Maybe the calculation was that if the Dems lost, then it will all fall into Trump’s lap along with any responsibility for it as well.

    Reply ↓
    1. flora

      Fauci told T there would be a pandemic in T’s first term. Hotez came out a couple of weeks ago and said a new pandemic would arrive on the same day (or near) of T’s 2025 inaugeration. (How do those guys see into the future?) / ;)

      Reply ↓
      1. Screwball

        Here is a Youtube clip of Hotez saying there are new things coming Jan 21st.

        “Pandemics Coming January 21st”

        I listened to the clip and it sure sounds like that’s what he said. Yet, we have this from USA today;
        No, researcher didn’t warn of ‘unleashed’ viruses after Trump takes office | Fact check

        This refers to a posting online and the interview. I don’t think they did a very good job of disproving what he said, but the headline is probably all that is necessary.

        Reply ↓
    3. polecat

      No ahem! ‘gain o function’ .. what’$ your .. janky conjunction there, am I right..

      Just moar authoritarian crap from our vaunted overlord scienzes..

      Reply ↓
    4. steppenwolf fetchit

      Maybe that was all the Biden regime itself wanted, but I think other ” Deeper-In Higher-Ups” want this flu to evolve into a megadeath pandemic to further the Jackpot Agenda. They hope that refusing to address it will give it time to evolve into the megadeath pandemic they want it to become.

      Reply ↓
  5. The Rev Kev

    ‘Nature is Amazing ☘️
    @AMAZlNGNATURE
    The other swans aren’t gonna believe this’

    It’s kinda like watching the first guy to start banging two rocks together.

    Reply ↓
  6. flora

    re: Senate passes bill to boost Social Security benefits for some -The Hill

    This is a very good and long over due step. Particularly now when so many state employee and city employee defined benefit pension plans are under severe strain. Many state and city defined benefit plans are being replaced with defined contribution plans for new employees. Thanks for the link.

    Reply ↓
    1. flora

      adding, from the article:

      “The bill, the Social Security Fairness Act, will repeal the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP), enacted in 1983, which reduces the Social Security benefits of workers who receive government pensions not covered by Social Security”

      Whether or not a state/local govt pension plan was or was not covered by Social Security was up the state/local govts that set up the plans originally. My state and many states did not go that route, and so state govt employees in the states that did not go that route have always received both state pensions and Social Security benefits in retirement.

      States like Maine and Texas did go that route. Some states offered their employees the option to opt-in or opt-out of the new WEP plan. The decision made a difference in their paycheck withholding contributions. At the time, there was a big push encouraging people to opt-out of SS and invest the money privately in the stock market, because one could do so much better in the stock market, (they said). From Texas AFT, yesterday:

      Retiree Issues in the Spotlight

      https://www.texasaft.org/policy/retirement/retiree-issues-in-the-spotlight/

      Reply ↓
        1. Skk

          Yup, the windfall elimination provision currently reduces my wife’s and mine pension, because we were forced to contribute to the UK state pension scheme during our 25 years of adult life there and had enough credits to qualify for a pension. About half of that is eliminated by an equivalent reduction in the US Social Security pension.

          Reply ↓
      2. Darthbobber

        Prior to ’83 or so, military pay didn’t have social security withheld, so the years you put in didn’t generate SS benefits, and unless you became a lifer you weren’t going to collect a military pension either.

        Reply ↓
        1. scott s.

          More like 1957 for military. Maybe you are thinking of civil service CSRS vs FERS.

          Since 1957 there have been provisions to combine military retirement and CSRS, but I’m pretty sure that changed after FERS became mandatory.

          Reply ↓
  7. NotTimothyGeithner

    This is a reply to Rev Kev.

    I think it’s more the Matt Stoller critique that government is simply performative for too much of the Team Blue establishment. Once Klain left the White House, Biden’s handlers became theater kids and nothing more.

    Reply ↓
  8. Tom67

    California Bird Flu. I read the NYT article about bird flu in cow herds. A lot about potential threats to humans but nothing much substantial how bad the effect on cows really is. On the one hand it says cows give only two thirds of milk after recovering on the other hand it says there is 4% (sic!) less milk than last year. Not exactly an earth shattering event. Finally it mentioned that it is deadly for chicken.
    Well, I have chicken in my backyard and I am friends with an organic farmer here. Letś just say that the poultry industry is totally unsustainable. You can´t just confine thousands of chicken indoors in cramped spaces and escape epidemics. In the Seventies you had Marek disease which killed about 5% of chicken. They inoculate ever since with ever new vaccines and Marek has gotten so deadly by now that it will kill any unvaccinated chicken.
    My farmer friend is of the opinion that all the animals in “modern” agriculture suffer from a weakened immune system. To him it is a fools errand to keep livestock healthy under distinctly unhealthy conditions and it is only a matter of time before human health will be affected by pathogens that thus emerge. Maybe bird flu is the case that he is expecting.

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      You said that Marek disease has been around since the 70s. That is half a century ago. I wonder if any effort has been made to breed a chicken that is immune to this disease. I checked Wikipedia and saw no mention of such an effort. You say. ‘They inoculate ever since with ever new vaccines and Marek has gotten so deadly by now that it will kill any unvaccinated chicken.’ But then I saw this bit on Wikipedia-

      ‘Under normal conditions, highly virulent strains of the virus are not selected for by evolution. This is because such a severe strain would kill the host before the virus would have an opportunity to transmit to other potential hosts and replicate. Thus, less virulent strains are selected. These strains are virulent enough to induce symptoms but not enough to kill the host, allowing further transmission. However, the leaky vaccine changes this evolutionary pressure and permits the evolution of highly virulent strains. The vaccine’s inability to prevent infection and transmission allows the spread of highly virulent strains among vaccinated chickens. The fitness of the more virulent strains is increased by the vaccine.’

      Damn man. I bet that they did not see that coming.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention

      Reply ↓
      1. vao

        However, the leaky vaccine changes this evolutionary pressure and permits the evolution of highly virulent strains. The vaccine’s inability to prevent infection and transmission allows the spread of highly virulent strains among vaccinated chickens. The fitness of the more virulent strains is increased by the vaccine.

        A leaky vaccine that is neither immunizing nor sterilizing: isn’t that exactly what we have with the Covid-19 jabs? And if such a faulty prophylaxy actually selects the most dangerous strains, then the old (and incorrect) argument that “a virus tends to become milder as it adapts to its host” is entirely invalidated.

        Does it mean that in due time, just like with poultry, we will be obliged to get one, or two, or three, or more injections every year just not to die from SARS-2? What a wonderful business model for pharmaceutical firms…

        Reply ↓
        1. Revenant

          People – including me – warned about the precedent of Marek’s disease with a non-sterilising Covid vaccine.

          So far, there’s no apparent Marek trajectory in Covid….

          Reply ↓
      2. playon

        The vaccine’s inability to prevent infection and transmission allows the spread of highly virulent strains

        COVID vaccines anyone?

        Reply ↓
          1. steppenwolf fetchit

            Well, you can go withOUT masking for the rest of your life, but it might be a shorter life and a worse one.

            Choices . . . choices . . .

            Reply ↓
      3. kareninca

        ‘Under normal conditions, highly virulent strains of the virus are not selected for by evolution. This is because such a severe strain would kill the host before the virus would have an opportunity to transmit to other potential hosts and replicate. Thus, less virulent strains are selected. These strains are virulent enough to induce symptoms but not enough to kill the host, allowing further transmission. However, the leaky vaccine changes this evolutionary pressure and permits the evolution of highly virulent strains. The vaccine’s inability to prevent infection and transmission allows the spread of highly virulent strains among vaccinated chickens. The fitness of the more virulent strains is increased by the vaccine.’

        I don’t understand the reasoning here. If you have no vaccine, the virus can infect and spread. If you have a leaky vaccine, the virus can infect and spread. How are you made worse off by the vaccine? The author is simply claiming that the fitness of the more virulent strains is increased by the vaccines, s/he isn’t proving it (I think). What am I missing?

        Reply ↓
        1. vao

          Being injected a weak vaccine results in an immune reaction that will attack all virus in the organism. Since they are only partly eliminated, the microbes will therefore be selected as such:

          1) Remaining in the body without causing lethal damage to the host, allowing more replication for longer, and transmitting at a slower rate is selected against because the virus is subject to attacks by the immune system for a longer time,

          in favour of:

          2) Having a bout of very fast replication in order to contaminate another person as quickly as possible before being attacked by the immune system, and thus in this situation having no advantage in either the host or the virus itself surviving for long — so no consequences on virus fitness when causing extensive, lethal damage to the host.

          An immunizing vaccine prevents infection, i.e. the host does not get sick (the virus cannot penetrate cells to do its thing and is destroyed). A sterilizing vaccing prevents transmission, i.e. a person cannot contaminate another person (the virus cannot replicate, or if it does, the replicas are all destroyed).

          That is what I understood, biology and medical mavens may correct me.

          Reply ↓
          1. kareninca

            Thanks, but I am still confused.

            It seems like the problem with factory chickens is the situation, rather than the crappy vaccine. Rintrah discussed this at his blog. A bird in the wild has to fly all over the place in order to spread the virus, and so the virus is selected for mildness. A bird in a factory farm can spread the virus just with a single breath, and so the virus can be totally lethal and the bird can still spread it and so the virus is not selected to be tolerable by the animal.

            An extra issue is that if we stopped having factory farms, the problem would go away, right? Once a bunch of chickens all die, without being able to spread their virus because it killed them so fast, because the virus is so lethal, that should be the end of the virus. Since none of them lived to spread it elsewhere. But we keep building these farms and creating large numbers of sitting ducks (so to speak).

            I am also confused about how avian flu can be so lethal to birds, but they are managing to spread it anyway. Oh, well.

            Reply ↓
            1. steppenwolf fetchit

              In reply to your last sentence, it could be that : first they get it, then they spread it, then they die. From a Flu’s-eye point-of-view, the birds can die all they like, as long as they spread it first.

              Reply ↓
    1. Ben Panga

      Contemporary Twitter in a nutshell: MAGA agitators initially all over the story. Then, as it emerged the guy was an AFD and Geert Wilders fan, the story is immediately dropped and disappears.

      Elon’s chosen algorithm works pretty effectively these days

      Reply ↓
  10. Wukchumni

    Bird Flu Has Hit California Dairies So Hard That They’re Calling It ‘Covid for Cows’ New York Times

    Farmers took precautions by cutting off contact with other dairy farms, regularly testing their milk for the virus, disinfecting new equipment and preventing workers from other farms from visiting, said Dr. Payne, who studies biosecurity on farms. This fall, cattle ranchers in California also scrambled to isolate their herds because it has been believed that avian flu spreads through close contact between cows.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    It isn’t as if Bessie & Co. could wander off and infect any other CAFO dairy operation (every last dairy around these parts is of the get big or don’t bother trying variety) so it isn’t as if the barn door is closed and they’re out cavorting. In fact i’ve seen quite a few dairies where there is a strip of grass just outside their enclosure, I think merely to (family blog) with them, there being no good reason to tempt them to eat something healthy, no sirrreee Bob.

    A good amount of the milk is sent to China in powder form, how long before the Middle Kingdom says ixnay on Cali milk eh?

    Reply ↓
      1. Wukchumni

        There is a bumper sticker you occasionally see on the rear echelon of vehicles in the Central Valley that says…

        ‘Dairying Is Not A Crime’

        I’m not so sure…

        Reply ↓
        1. steppenwolf fetchit

          Artisanal small-herd dairying is certainly Not a Crime.

          Industrial soylent-CAFO dairying may well Be a Crime.

          Reply ↓
    2. Jason Boxman

      The most common way humans have contracted bird flu has appeared to be through close contact with infected cattle and poultry.

      But of course.

      This is not a theory of transmission.

      This is like saying procreation is through “close contact” between male and females.

      What does that even mean?

      Without a theory of transmission, you can’t stop transmission.

      This is the stupidest timeline.

      Reply ↓
  11. The Rev Kev

    “Germany and France are in crisis – is the next global financial crash brewing?”

    ‘The eurozone’s flaws and a lack of growth in the EU have combined to malign effect. ‘More Europe’ is not the solution’

    What’s most remarkable is that the words ‘Ukraine’ and ‘gas’ do not appear anywhere in this article as in not at all. A rather strange omission. Victor Oraban was just saying that the west has spent €310 billion (officially) on the Ukraine so probably half of that came out of EU coffers. If that money had stayed in the EU I bet that it would have helped. And the ongoing costs of this war will make itself known for decades in higher energy prices and de-industrialization. Yes, the eurozone’s flaws played a major part but those flaws were having an unaccountable oligarchy running the EU and suppressing any democratic tendencies with a mock Parliament as window dressing.

    Reply ↓
    1. AG

      Sorry to bother but do we have an updated list of what country gave exactly how much?
      There were arms lists in the past. But something complete for 3 years?

      I know Blinken at the CFR just now talked about, $150bn(?) and then Europe another, I think 100+.
      p.s.Where did Orbi say this?

      Reply ↓
    1. Jason Boxman

      Now we know why we never heard about antitrust, though, under Biden. He isn’t president. I read somewhere that perhaps on this Warren was influential in getting her appointed, but does Biden even know that Khan is at the FTC? Cleary his “circle” doesn’t care for antitrust.

      The one good thing about Biden’s administration might not even have had anything to do with him.

      Now things are starting to make sense.

      Reply ↓
  13. The Rev Kev

    “U.S. lifts bounty on Syria’s interim leader amid diplomatic outreach”

    Barbara Leaf, the US rep, was saying-

    ‘We also discussed the critical need to ensure that terrorist groups cannot pose a threat inside Syria or externally, including to the US and our partners in the region.’

    By terrorist groups, did she also mean Al-Qaeda knock-off Hayat Tahrir al-Sham? This is like going to a mob boss and negotiating an end to crime in his district. Does Jolani even control the majority of groups running around Syria right now? I expect that these groups will have fun playing off to each other the US, France, UK, Oman, Israel, Turkiye and any other country trying to get a share of power in Syria.

    Reply ↓
  14. Wukchumni

    Mosh pit nappy, designed to avoid queues at gig loos, sells out Sky News (Dr. Kevin)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Depends by another name…

    I reverted to a 2 year old last month for the first time ever 3 score later after shopping @ the Grocery Outlet, and was putting things away in my truck when the first urge came on, and in days past by that would’ve given me 10 minutes to find a restroom-but that was then and this is now… the warning went to code red in a couple minutes and there was nothing I could do aside from being glad I wore tighty-whitey’s in lieu of boxers that day.

    That said, i’m looking forward to more thrills of getting older~

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      When you’re young, you never ever think of the possibility that one day that your own bladder will end up betraying you. :(

      Might need to keep an empty bottle with a resealable lid in the truck like truckies do.

      Reply ↓
    3. Jeremy Grimm

      Perhaps a ketamine side effect lies at the heart of the rise of mosh pit nappies. Special K encourages the need for frequent urination.

      Reply ↓
      1. Wukchumni

        We call it ‘the Groutlet’ and the one I shop in plays a steady diet of contemporary evang pop music, and a pro tip after listening to it for a dozen years or so, make damned sure you have ‘praise’ somewhere in the song, what if the big guy was listening and caught you holding out?

        A great place to shop, it reminds me of Trader Joe’s back in the 70’s-80’s, with merchandise changing all the time, and an interesting variety-if you like something, it probably wont be there the next time. Occasionally Liberté brand yogurt is remaindered for 59¢, its usually $3 when you can find it somewhere else, the best yogurt i’ve ever had.

        Reply ↓
        1. playon

          That’s too bad – the one we frequent plays great oldies – rockabilly, country, R&R, Soul, etc. Each store is independently managed so I guess it’s owner’s choice.

          Reply ↓
  15. Stephen V

    On AI, Will Lockett is great:
    https://substack.com/home/post/p-151777480
    That great sucking sound is back.
    [OpenAI co-founder] Sutskever claimed that the firm’s recent tests trying to scale up its models suggest that those efforts have plateaued. As far as he is concerned, AI cannot get better by just feeding it more data.
    READ & weep.

    Reply ↓
    1. i just don't like the gravy

      AI cannot get better by just feeding it more data.

      That is true. However trying to cram everything into a single model is futile and misguided. The industry is making good progress developing “reasoning” skills into the models. It appears to provide legitimate benefits as the recent ARC-AGI benchmark with o3 shows.

      Don’t pay any attention to the crazy amount of compute for inference though…

      https://arcprize.org/blog/oai-o3-pub-breakthrough

      Reply ↓
  16. Wukchumni

    O come, all ye faithful, joyful and triumphant
    O come ye, o come ye to Bitcoin
    O come and behold it, borne from Satoshi Claus

    O come, let us adore it
    O come, let us adore it
    O come, let us adore it
    Manna that has soared

    O come, all ye faithful
    O come, all ye faithful
    O come, all ye faithful to Bitcoin

    O come, all ye faithful
    O come, all ye faithful
    O come, all ye faithful to Bitcoin

    O sing, choirs of investors, sing in exultation
    O come, o come ye to Bitcoin
    O come and behold it, borne from Satoshi Claus

    O come, let us adore it
    O come, let us adore it
    O come, let us adore it
    Manna that has soared

    Reply ↓
    1. griffen

      I can boldly predict the future of Bitcoin…in 2025 it may go higher still up and into the Dutch tulip phase of any such bubble mania…”here buy these tulip bulbs I only ask you pay above the price I am asking for….”. I am neither a supporter or a denier when it comes to the cryptocurrency trading, so I can idly watch from the sidelines…

      Fortune favors the bold…but the delusional have on occasion also found fortune…

      Reply ↓
  18. The Rev Kev

    “THE NEW CEASEFIRE EQUATION”

    Seymour Hersh needs to use the sarc tag more. So the Israelis are offering to let Saudi Arabia the honor of rebuilding Gaza using their own money. A few months ago projected costs were $50 billion but by now are probably $100 billion. Come to think of it, rebuild Gaza for whom exactly? The settlers – along with exclusive hotels and marinas for international elites maybe? Then it said this-

    ‘In return for its support and money, the Israeli told me, the Saudi leadership would be offered an expanded defense treaty by the United States that would include Saudi Arabia in its nuclear umbrella—its zone of protection—in case Iran, Israel’s last standing enemy, were to acquire a nuclear bomb.’

    So they get a Potomac promise and aid against a country who they have settled their differences with. That’s like Oz offering aid to the US in case Canada ever attacked them. Then there is this part-

    ‘There is an added inducement in the Saudi package, the Israeli told me: the Saudis would look the other way as the Israelis conduct bombing raids, including bombing of military targets inside fractured Syria, and would give Israel access to an airfield within Saudi borders. This would bring Israeli bombs, most supplied by the United States, within minutes, and not hours, of key Iranian targets.’

    This is freaking nuts. If the Saudis were ever crazy enough to let the Israelis do this, they would fly their jets back home to safety in Israel while a whole fleet of missiles would start hitting Saudi oil infrastructure as they were now a direct party to an attack against Iran. Without Saudi Arabia handing over their gold reserves to Israel, I don’t know how much more one-sided this deal could get.

    Reply ↓
    1. lyman alpha blob

      RE: … Iran, Israel’s last standing enemy…

      The Israeli who said that to Hersh might want to expand their worldview a bit. Israel is a pariah state and the whole world knows it.

      Reply ↓
    3. Kouros

      What is the deal with Iran’s shortages? I was under the impression that there would be some Chinese investments in the country to prop up their energy sector. It seems to me that China is a big downer here (a bit like with the Russians) and when the screw will start turning on them, will be also left with “thoughts and prayers” to use…

      Reply ↓
      1. NotThePilot

        Honestly, I think it’s a mix of things.

        The first is that while Iran has climbed very far out of the hole, despite facing 45 years of economic warfare, it had mind-boggling levels of poverty before the revolution. So I expect the Chinese are at least ramping up their investment and starting projects. In terms of infrastructure though, the country really was that under-developed after the Qajars and Pahlavis (and in some ways, since the Mongols).

        Even in rural areas today, I think it’s a lot more like Afghanistan than people realize, only majority Shi’i with the self-concept of a civilization state. Also, partly for those material and cultural reasons, but also other strategic and ideological ones, Iran often takes an asymmetric approach to economic problems. That inevitably means not picking the most capital-intensive way of doing things as Plan A.

        Finally, I think it’s pretty clear much of the chatter on this you’re seeing now is essentially concern-trolling by Western media. Iran’s been having power-grid issues for years now; many (most?) middle-income countries do. The media just starts hyping it up every time they think Iran has been weakened, which is why all of these articles now are somehow framing things as related to Baathist Syria falling.

        Reply ↓
    4. steppenwolf fetchit

      Just because the IsraGov were to offer such a deal does not mean the Saudi Royal Family would be interested in taking it. Or even considering it.

      Reply ↓
  19. marieann

    re; the Luigi story. I am not sure if I am alone in thinking he looks very much like Aiden Turner
    (of Poldark Fame)
    In fact when I first saw the headlines I really thought that was him.

    I wonder if this resemblance will help him in the court(jury)

    Reply ↓
      1. Expat2uruguay

        Perhaps there can be an accident at rikers that messes up his face, a fire perhaps, a prison made explosive device of some type?

        Reply ↓
        1. ambrit

          The old gasoline in the incandescent lightbulb trick will do nicely.
          Also don’t rule out the “suicide by hanging” trick.
          I consider these ‘uncivilized’ tactics possible because the outpouring of adulation for “The Adjuster” by the general public, aka, the Mobb (mobile vulgaris,) caught the elites by surprise. A small pricking of the Bubble as it were. (I have come to the theory that Social Bubbles are in interlocking, or concentric relationships. Pop one and another is available to take its place.)
          Stay safe. Avoid Imperial entanglements.

          Reply ↓
          1. steppenwolf fetchit

            If Saint Luigi of the Adjustication were to be epsteined in jail, he would become an instamartyr to adoring millions. If the Establishment is too dumm to realize that, then the Establishment might well try to epstein him in jail.

            I myself don’t think the Establishment is that dumm. But I could be wrong about that.
            This is, after all, the mostest stupidest timeline.

            Reply ↓
    2. cfraenkel

      The self-censorship is strong with these stories. The only image meme they dared publish was the Superman side by side. I wasn’t really looking, but all day saw images fly by with ‘Saint Luigi’ with a Byzantine halo around his head. There was even one depicting him as Christ being marched to the Crucifixion.

      Reply ↓
      1. Paleobotanist

        Yeah, that prep walk is clearly Christ’s walk to Calvary surrounded by Roman soldiers. I guess that one’s timeless. Everybody who has been to Catholic school is going to pick up on that one. You don’t even have to think it, it’s a knee-jerk subconscious reaction. Everyone knows that St Luigi is going to be martyred. Colonel Smithers, do you see it too?

        Reply ↓
        1. JMH

          Over charged but then spitting on the street is terrorism is performed disdainfully.

          Perp walk, yes , Jesus on the way to the cross but also a ridiculous display of firepower and political opportunism while making the prisoner a perfect target

          Reply ↓
        2. jrkrideau

          I went to a Catholic school and missed it but I vaguely see the symbolism now. I am not from the USA so our symbolism may differ a bit.

          Reply ↓
  20. CA

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202412/1325448.shtml

    December 20, 2024

    Scientists’ big data analysis uncovers mysteries of early Earth evolution, helping search for extraterrestrial life
    By Li Hang

    By establishing the biggest paleobiology database of early Earth to date and employing cutting-edge analytical tools, including supercomputer and artificial intelligence, an international paleontological research team led by Dr Qing Tang and Professor Shuzhong Shen from the School of Earth Sciences and Engineering at Nanjing University, for the first time, have constructed a high-resolution biodiversity curve spanning from 2 billion to 500 million years ago.

    The findings * were published in the academic Science journal on Friday. This study reveals that early life on Earth underwent a prolonged evolutionary journey, marked by multiple major radiations and mass extinctions before the formation of complex ecosystems around 500 million years ago.

    “This study fills a critical gap in our understanding of the macroevolution of life on early Earth, providing a theoretical basis for elucidating the origins and early evolution of life, exploring the potential existence of extraterrestrial life, and assessing the sustainable development of a habitable Earth,” Tang told the Global Times.

    Fossils are the most direct evidence of life’s evolution. However, when did life, particularly eukaryotes with a membrane-enveloped nucleus, originate and leave its first fossil record more than 500 million years ago? As the ancestors of all modern complex organisms, how did early life cope with environmental challenges and evolve into the diverse biosphere we see today?

    These fundamental scientific questions, which are crucial for understanding our origins and future, have remained largely unaddressed for a long time due to methodological limitations, said Tang.

    To tackle these questions, the research team spent six years developing a comprehensive paleobiology database of early Earth…

    * https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adm9137

    Reply ↓
  22. Screwball

    On the topic of Lina Khan and drugs. I have a buddy who is on blood thinners. His prescription is for XARELTO. I don’t know if I have this right, but he told me the cost for a 9 month supply will be $7000 in 2025, a huge increase over last year. He is on fixed income and his medicare will not cover most of it the way is sounds. I’m not sure if this is due to the deductible or what.

    Needless to say, he is not a happy camper. Curious if anyone else has heard of this?

    Reply ↓
    1. IM Doc

      Yes – this is just yet another grift –
      I do not know if your friend is on Medicare or not – or gasp an advantage plan.
      But in this age group with drugs like Xarelto – about 800 dollars a month – have it particularly bad. Especially those who chose to go the advantage route.

      There is a construct known as a “donut hole”. There is coverage for these expensive drugs ( albeit with huge copays) until a limit is reached. Then it is ALL on the patient for another limit – and then the coverage begins anew. This limit for the donut hole usually hits in the late spring or early summer. And then the 800-1200 dollars a month is all on the patient. The smart ones come in and we get them on coumadin – something that is 5 dollars a month. The not-so-smart ones are often embarrassed to discuss this with their PCP – and end up having a stroke. The incidence of donut hole strokes in through the roof in the Aug-Oct time frame. It happens year after year after year.

      Tell your friend to discuss coumadin with this PCP – it is literally 5 dollars a month. It must be monitored and therefore not as convenient – but at least he will not be dead.

      Reply ↓
      1. Screwball

        Thank you for this. I now remembering him talking about the donut hole, but I didn’t understand it. He is on medicare and some sort of supplemental, but I’m not sure which one.

        Again, thank you and I will do so.

        Reply ↓
      2. Dejan

        My father is also on Xarelto, and a month’s supply (28 pills per box I think) is around $50 here in Serbia without a prescription. Just curious why don’t Americans import the drug. You can probably fly over, buy a years supply cheaper than $1K.

        Reply ↓
        1. Screwball

          You can. I looked into it. The 9 month supply would cost less than 400 bucks. Here in America you need a prescription. Not needed if you buy from overseas. My buddy doesn’t trust the imported stuff.

          Not sure why. I’m sure much of our pharma products are imported but I haven’t investigated.

          Reply ↓
          1. Yves Smith Post author

            If he does not trust Sebia, he should try Thailand. Medicine is a big national priority. A brother of a past king became an MD and so medicine has royal patronage. Medical tourism is a strategic focus. A lot of rich Saudis come here for heart procedures, for instance. Medicine is where most smart Thais go, particularly ones who speak English.

            I am just about certain all Rxl meds are imported from places with pharmaceutical-grade standards: the US, EU, Australia, Japan, Canada, UK. Thailand has strict controls and reporting on production and distribution of domestically produced medical substances like stem cell.

            Technically pharmacists who also have medical training dispense the medications, but if you show a US product, they will find it or the analogue unless it’s restricted The restricted categories are psychoactive drugs, opiates, and birth control meds.

            Reply ↓
      3. Jason Boxman

        We can thank Bush the Junior for the “doughnut” hole, and the stealth privatization of Medicare. It sounds so benign, I like doughnuts! But really it is life and death, and doubtless people do die from this or from going bankrupt subsequently.

        And this hasn’t been resolved in almost 20 years. And Obama was president for, what, 8 years? And now Biden was “president” for four?

        Not a serious country.

        Reply ↓
      4. lcm

        New rules for 2025 eliminate the donut hole and cap Part D plan covered costs at $2,000 per year.

        “ New for 2025: $2,000 cap on covered Part D drugs

        Starting in 2025, all Medicare plans will include a $2,000 cap on what you pay out-of-pocket for prescription drugs covered by your plan. If your out-of-pocket spending on covered drugs reaches $2,000 (including certain payments made on your behalf, like through the Extra Help program), you’ll automatically get “catastrophic coverage.” That means you won’t have to pay out-of-pocket for covered Part D drugs for the rest of the calendar year. If you have a Medicare plan with drug coverage, compare plans during Medicare Open Enrollment (October 15 – December 7) to make sure your plan covers the drugs you take and meets your needs.” From https://www.medicare.gov/drug-coverage-part-d/costs-for-medicare-drug-coverage/costs-in-the-coverage-gap

        Reply ↓
        1. Pat

          Of course the drugs listed as being covered during open enrollment can be dropped from coverage during the non open enrollment period. I am not sure if that falls under the changes that allow you to switch coverage outside open enrollment, but because of this I see numerous ways for our insanely rapacious insurance and pharmaceutical industries to get around the new rules.

          Let’s just say that between the farces that are Medicare pt D, ACA, and Medicare drug negotiations that mean none of them function as they should or are represented as doing that I will believe this will solve the issues of affordable medication for seniors when it happens.

          Reply ↓
    2. CA

      Google AI

      “Bayer’s Xarelto patent is set to expire on November 13, 2024. This will allow generic versions of rivaroxaban, the active ingredient in Xarelto, to enter the market.”

      The average cost of Xarelto in China in 2022 was 69 cents a tablet…

      Reply ↓
      1. CA

        Following IM Doc:

        Even though the original Xarelto patent has just expired, be sure that Bayer will be trying to extend the patent to delay the introduction of a generic form of the drug.

        Reply ↓
  24. Expat2uruguay

    Video discussing some of the precautions that the Russians are taking at the Kirsh bridge. Also includes how Ukrainian unmanned vehicle attacks are causing problems for Russian shipping. These are just two things I found interesting in Sal’s recent video, “Third Russian tanker sinks” on his channel “what’s going on with shipping”
    https://youtu.be/Nu24kbhPRPo
    Since this third tanker carried a nasty version of oil he also discusses the llarge environmental crisis :(

    Reply ↓
  25. cfraenkel

    Simplicious has bought into the ‘hypersonic’ propaganda kool-aid (or is intentionally spreading it). The ‘plasma sheath’ comment is irrelevant, since there is no difference between an Oreshnik RV and an ICBM RV to an AD interceptor. If you can hit an ICBM warhead, you can hit the Oreshnik. (Well, one of them, anyway)

    The reason the plasma sheath is important is when the warhead is maneuvering, so the AD radar has to update it’s intercept position. This is not the case with an ICBM/MIRV/Oreshnik, who do all their maneuvering outside the atmosphere.

    Mentioning the plasma sheath in this context is either a) intentionally dishonest propaganda or b) ignorance of basic physics.

    Reply ↓
    1. Polar Socialist

      On top of that, the plasma will only absorb electromagnetic pulses (radar) on the same frequency the plasma oscillates, radar waves higher than that frequency will go trough the plasma and radar waves at lower frequency will be reflected from the plasma. This plasma frequency depends on the heat of the projectile and the density of the gas density ratio (or height above sea level, for practical purposes).

      This means that the frequency changes constantly during the missiles descent in the atmosphere. Only in simulations, using ionized helium, have they been able to create a controlled plasma field around an object. Furthermore, Chinese have noticed that their LARID very long range radar can actually detect plasma bubbles in the atmosphere.

      That said, the sheer speed of the object and the fact that the extended plasma envelope reflects radar waves in a rather random way makes it night impossible for the signal processing to figure out the correct speed and range of the object.

      Reply ↓
    2. PlutoniumKun

      Simplicious, like a lot of online military experts who are finding themselves at sea when it comes to aerospace, but I guess the requirements for engagements feel they have to say something. (I exempt Big Serge from this criticism, he knows enough not to comment on topics where he does not have true expertise). Far too many making silly comments about hypersonic and missile defence. At this stage I pretty much switch off when someone mentions the word ‘hypersonic’. It’s just become meaningless when used by most commentators.

      He also seems to be unaware that while the initial tracking is by radar, many terminal stage interceptors use IR, not radar. Its as if the engineers designing these systems actually do understand what they are dealing with.

      The other big issue of course is that the plasma sheath is not a one way screen. It also makes target acquisition by the incoming missile extremely difficult, which is why precision hits by hypersonic are very difficult. They can hit an airfield or an industrial complex, but not an individual building – at least not without slowing down in the terminal stage. This is one reason why ‘true’ hypersonics (i.e. missiles that maintain hypersonic speed through their entire trajectory) can probably never be carrier killers – they can’t achieve the required accuracy for the last crucial few seconds.

      Reply ↓
      1. Jason Boxman

        Can’t you just brute force the problem by raining down these on a carrier? Fire is actually the biggest risk on a ship. For example, see Danger’s Hour: The Story of the USS Bunker Hill and the Kamikaze Pilot Who Crippled Her where they literally burned alive or suffocated inside the ship.

        Reply ↓
        1. PlutoniumKun

          I’d recommend looking at Millennium 7* Youtube videos for a deep dive into various topics like this. Yes, you could brute force it, but if you do the math (he does it in one video, basically, you’d need dozens of missiles with multiple warheads), you will see you would need a hell of a lot of missiles. Primarily because the launches would be detected, and the aircraft carrier isn’t just going to sit there and do nothing. And if you use that many missiles, why use very expensive hypersonics (the extreme engineering required ensures they can never be made cheaply) where there are much cheaper alternatives?

          Reply ↓
      2. rowlf

        The US hypersonic Sprint missile developed in the early 1970s was externally guided to a target point. Supposedly in testing there were impact intercepts of ICBM warheads*.

        *These probably had beacons installed.

        Reply ↓
        1. PlutoniumKun

          The Sprint was guided directly from a source behind it on the ground – if the missile is correctly shaped it is possible to get signals through from directly behind where the plasma doesn’t form. It also helps if you have a W88 nuclear device as a warhead, that kind of reduces the need for pin point accuracy. However, this option isn’t available to an incoming non-nuclear MARV. Some have speculated that some sort of trailing wire could be used to detect guidance signals or GPS. All these things are possible of course, but it makes everything extremely complex.

          Reply ↓
          1. Polar Socialist

            Actually the ionized air (a.k.a. plasma) is sucked* in to the vacuum behind the warhead, the ionized tail being often multiple times longer than the warhead itself. It also cools down quite fast, so it actually enhances the radio wave reflection in multiple frequencies at the same time.

            * both an air pressure and an electronic charge re-balancing thing.

            Reply ↓
            1. PlutoniumKun

              That is normally the case for a standard projectile, but I’ve seen it claimed that it is possible to aerodynamically create an open zone. The physics of that sort of effect are way beyond my knowledge. However, I have read some fairly reliable sources that it is at least theoretically possible. Aerodynamic laws get very weird at ultra high speeds.

              Reply ↓
      3. AG

        >”he knows enough not to comment on topics where he does not have true expertise)”
        Even if this might sound as a mundane truism of life which people are aware of it is an important observation.
        It has got completely forgotten. Public discussions have become very hard for this reason. Everybody knows everything about everything. Ha-ha.

        Reply ↓
        1. PlutoniumKun

          Unfortunately, there seems to be a fairly strong rule that once someone online develops an audience due to having said something interesting and useful, they feel the need to keep feeding that audience, even when they run out of informed/intelligent things to say.

          It’s the classic Dunning-Kruger problem (as originally formulated), which most of us can be prone to (and I include myself very much in this). Unfortunately, it’s a lot easier to write and post something online than it is to delete it when you realise belatedly it was stupid and ill-informed. For that I am thankful for the degrading of google.

          There are of course many sources of bias, but D-K is particularly damaging I think because it’s a form of bias that particularly afflicts very smart and otherwise very well informed people.

          On that point, I think much kudos should go to that writer who immediately withdrew his analysis of the attack when presented with more evidence. Few bother doing that these days, they prefer to rely on peoples short memories.

          Reply ↓
          1. Polar Socialist

            Then, of course, many topics cover such a large areas of human interest and knowledge that barely nobody can be an experts on them. I personally stopped reading Big Serge due to his multiple errors is details in subtopics I do know a lot. I don’t know if it is because he’s sloppy himself or uses bad sources, though (alas, the time of the copy editors is gone, to everyone’s detriment).

            I’m still amused by his nom-de-guerre and I did enjoy his very methodical approach to particular events and I do assume people are better off after reading his material than not. I just personally find he has too much “filler text” to reach word count or something and too many factoids for my time.

            Reply ↓
          2. Max Z

            It happens only naturally because once you post anything to an audience, the comment section will inevitably be full with “hey, can you write something about X” and “what about Y” and you’re bound to respond in some way sooner or later. Having the best intentions, your first responses will be starting with “I’m not an expert but…” but that will soon wash off. And you’d better off not making any predictions, lol.

            Reply ↓
  26. AndrewJ

    The oreshnik strike efficacy and question of novelty remains interesting. A couple weeks ago I linked a western business press’s piece – I forget which, one of the big ones – claiming that new high resolution images showed minimal damage to Yuzhmash. I couldn’t find the images publicly available that they based their claim on. The Airbus/Pleiades paid imagery that Amerikanets purchased apparently shows *zero* new damage after the strike, with the implication that it either missed entirely or Airbus has patched the imagery that they offer to hide it.
    Why, I wonder?

    Reply ↓
    1. PlutoniumKun

      There is a lot of ambiguity over this, but the obvious question is why the Russians aren’t releasing their own satellite photos if they think it did a lot of damage.

      There are a range of unanswered questions, and probably only a few people within the various military agencies actually know the real extent of the damage. Even then, the western agencies probably don’t know the Russian intentions or whether full warheads were used. Plus the Russians may not have a full picture of what damage was caused.

      The only thing we know for sure is that the strike itself was impressive (even if it didn’t do a lot of damage, which seems increasingly likely), and it shows that Russia is serious about deep conventional rocket strikes into Europe which is a clear indicator of their strategic thinking. But just how accurate and damaging the weapon is, is still very much an open question.

      Reply ↓
      1. AG

        What would make you think the damage was not big?
        We have no data I believe that would suggest it.
        Call me biased but I trust RU engineering and calculations and Putin’s statements.

        Jeffrey Lewis back in Nov. while mocking Oreshnik a bit (for not being accurate enough) pointed out that apartment blocks bordering the factory area had suffered cracks.

        The fact that Oreshnik has vanished from Western MSM this quickly tells you something about the shock among those who usually provide the media with comments. You hear virtually nothing. That is not a reaction expressing confidence.

        Reply ↓
        1. PlutoniumKun

          Please read the links posted above. The satellite photos indicates very minor visual damage.

          As the article indicates, there is speculation of fakery, but then again, we have no confirmed photos indicating lots of damage either. Its all speculation, and people seem to believe what they want to believe.

          Reply ↓
      2. Antifa

        The laws of physics answer your doubts—

        Any thing that strikes the ground at over 10,000 mph creates a humongous shock wave, a wave of molten lava in all directions, and throws up enormous amounts of pulverized material from the crater it leaves behind. The incredible heat, the blast wave, and the damage done are in every way comparable to a small nuclear bomb, minus radiation.

        Any thing that strikes the ground at over 10,000 mph is a survivor of the heat of passing through our atmosphere. Meteorites of Oreshnik’s size routinely burn up before impact. The Oreshnik projectiles are therefore made of metal alloys(?) that can bear up in plasma conditions (3,000 degrees Fahrenheit) of passing through our atmosphere. This is what makes Oreshnik genuinely unique—it should have burned up before it hit.

        It didn’t. It was accelerating and maneuvering until the last millisecond.

        Professor Ted Postol at MIT covers these basic laws of physics in recent YouTube interviews.

        Reply ↓
        1. Revenant

          There has been discussion that oreshnik’s non-nuclear warhead is a big block of tungsten alloy exploiting a Coloumb explosion.

          Thus is when the electrical charge distribution in an object is skewed by an applied electromagnetic field (hypersonic plasma may suffice, perhaps?), and then something happens (this bit is not clear to me!), with the result that the material flies apart from the inside instantaneously because of internuclear repulsion (the nuclei are all strongly positive).

          This is thought to explain the violence of the reaction of alkali metals (sodium) with water and of molten salt with water. This has only recently been discovered in the last ten years dispute the reaction being one of the first you do in any chemistry course!

          https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2015.16771

          There is military interest in this because the effect enhances the energetics of “solid projectiles piercing metal”,. I.e. armour piercing depleted uranium charges and the like.

          https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1173727.pdf

          You cannot get something for nothing. A big block of tungsten can only have as much energy in it as was used in lofting it up to its apogee. The energy is all converted into kinetic energy at the moment of impact.

          But if there were a way of converting some of that energy into a strained electronic distribution in the warhead that will be released at the speed of light rather than on a millisecond scale of physical destruction, the bang would be much bigger if briefer. This may be more effective for certain applications.

          I have no idea if this claim of a role for a Coloumb explosion in oreshnik is true but it is very interesting, almost sci-fi thinking….

          Reply ↓
          2. PlutoniumKun

            That’s really interesting. As so often with these things, obtaining true analyses are very difficult as by definition nobody who is working on this stuff wants everyone else to know about. Vast amounts of money have been invested in various aspects of high speed projectiles and penetrators for many decades, but only a fraction of what is known is open source. One of the areas of speculation for those trying to work out what is going on is why in the past 2 decades there was such a surge in interest in hypersonics, when the limitations had been so well known since the last surge in interest in the ’70s/80s. It’s been speculated that there have been some breakthroughs in either guidance or in potential non-nuclear warheads, but so far as I’m aware, it’s all just speculation. Of course, you can never rule out that the whole thing is a self licking ice cream developed by insiders in the various countries. Every major power dreams of a wonder weapon, but they very rarely become reality.

            As for the physics of warheads, energy is only a small part of the equation. Accuracy is just as, if not more important. A properly directed 5kg warhead can knock out a tank, while a somewhat less accurate bomb or roadside device would take 10 or 20 times that energy to do the same damage. This is where you get a very complicated payoff between high precision weaponry or raw power (there are fascinating parallels between current arguments and those that took place in the 1930’s, between advocates of precision bombing (dive bombers and torpedo bombers) and high level saturation bombing in all sorts of contexts. The balance between the two (and many other variables of course) is constantly swinging, even during the course of a war, let along over longer periods.

            Reply ↓
      3. Max Z

        There is a lot of ambiguity over this, but the obvious question is why the Russians aren’t releasing their own satellite photos if they think it did a lot of damage.

        Mercouris states that this is because the Russians never release their satellie photos, is that true?

        Reply ↓
    2. AG

      This is top secret stuff. Any true evidence presented in public will be extremely limited and only when it serves a very specific end in terms e.g. of influencing public sentiment/educate the public.
      I personally believe the US will never release anything. Just like with their failures on Dark Eagle. They just let the memory of it fade away.
      The Russians will wait until they can assume that the US has understood and when they themselves are fully clear of everything.
      Andrei Martyanov has this interesting point that looking at the missile’s trajectory the glide vehicle itself was calculated to crash on RU controlled territory.
      https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/12/answering-satellite-alleged-photos-of.html

      Reply ↓
    1. ambrit

      Our local Festivus crowd had a medium sized fireworks display yesternight. I did not see “The Horned One,” but, this being the North American Deep South (NADS) ‘His Infernal Majesty’ would not be out of place enjoying the celebration in person.

      Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      I think that Trump is also threatening NATO if they do not jack up contributions to 5% so those Europeans nations are going to get slammed twice.

      Reply ↓
  30. ChrisFromGA

    Final thoughts on the near-government-shutdown:

    After all the drama, the amount of money spent in the shrunken CRomnibus (only 116 pages!) is about the same as it would have been in the 1500+ page tome.

    $100B for disaster relief is an insane amount of money. Are we now in a new era where climate change is going to cost us yearly more than the entire budget for Homeland Security? Is this the “carbon tax” we’re finally paying, albeit not in the form intended?

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/200386/budget-of-the-us-government-for-fiscal-year-2012-by-agencies/

    I read that of that $100B, $30B is going to FEMA to rebuild their disaster reserve. Another good chunk is going to the SBA for small business loans … why do I smell massive fraud similar to the PPP coming?

    I can already hear the commercials on CNBC. “Did you lose a business due to Hurricane Helene or Milton? Apply for your loan now! Low interest rate only 29.9% APY, with a 10% cut for the big guy!”

    Go long episodes of “American Greed.”

    Reply ↓
  31. Wukchumni

    Expecting a Justin time delivery up over in the Gulag Hockeypelago, and resigning on a Sunday a few days before Xmas would be a fine weaselly way, eh?

    Reply ↓
  32. The Rev Kev

    ‘Sam Knowlton
    @samdknowlton
    Dec 18
    Two decades ago, researchers started an experiment that would challenge the prevailing scientific understanding of plant communities.
    While modern agriculture treats diversity as inefficient, the Jena Experiment proved the opposite: complexity is the key to resilience.’

    This is quite fascinating this experiment. The place itself is a 10ha (24.7 acres) field site within the city boundaries of Jena in Thuringia, Germany hence the name. They have been able to control most inputs and monitor everything and what they see are a revelation. All those industrial-agricultural farms have vulnerabilities built into them by trying to standardize everything and if a new wheat ‘rust’ came about for example, wheat alone has nearly all their eggs in one basket.

    Reply ↓
    1. Polar Socialist

      I thought we’ve know since the 1950’s that efficient agriculture is the opposite of resilient (and sustainable) agriculture. Maybe these “plant communities” didn’t get the memo about Panama disease.

      Reply ↓
  33. ChrisPacific

    Re: It’s a Mistake to Charge Luigi Mangione With Terrorism

    Well, yeah. I don’t get why all the points in the article aren’t glaringly obvious. Just more evidence of elites being out of touch?

    Reply ↓
    1. Cat Burglar

      One way to look at the terror charge and the staged perp walk is that offcials are performing for their true constituents, the ones that Thomas Ferguson identified in the interview posted in the 12/19/24 Links: the people that pay. The opinions of the general public and potential jurors are variables that can be adjusted later, but for now, the authorities have to show the People That Matter that all powers will be deployed for their safety. That’s why they look out of touch with us — being in touch with somebody else is taking up all their time.

      Reply ↓
  34. The Rev Kev

    “Faced with turmoil, a defiant Trudeau hangs on – for now”

    A lot of this turmoil has been caused by Trump who wants Trudeau gone. That he why he keeps on tossing anvils to him. When Chrystia Freeland quit only hours away from delivering a major budget followed by underlings resigning, that is when Trump saw his chance. Seems that Trump only wants to deal with strongman leaders and that is something that you can never accuse Trudeau of being.

    Reply ↓
    2. jrkrideau

      You might want to study Canadian politics a bit.

      I doubt the brawlers give a damn about what Trump wants or thinks in the political fight that’s going on. He’s irrelevant. Well, slagging Freeland may have boosted her stature.

      Trump promising to violate the USMCA, which I suppose we expected since it is difficult to trust any US agreement, is completely another issue to the Liberal leadership question.

      Reply ↓
  35. AG

    JACOBIN report

    nice one
    (in better times this could have been a US movie. The authors of this piece themselves being worthy of movies I figure.)

    Central America’s Last Comandante

    By Emilie Teresa Smith, Margarita Kenefic


    Now in hiding, César Montes led rebel forces, including the Guerrilla Army of the Poor, against US-backed dictatorships across Central America. Jacobin visited him in the Guatemalan prison where he was serving a 175-year sentence prior to his October escape.

    https://jacobin.com/2024/12/guatemala-el-salvador-cesar-montes

    the authors:

    Emilie Teresa Smith is an Argentine-born writer, Anglican priest, and the copresident of the global Oscar Romero Christian network (SICSAL). She was a militant in Guatemala’s Rebel Armed Forces from 1988 to 1995.

    Margarita Kenefic is a Guatemalan dramaturge and actor. She became a militant in Guatelemala’s Rebel Armed Forces in 1989.

    Reply ↓
  36. AG

    re: on German rearmament (+ some Oreshnik oddity too)

    How I hate these people. And laugh at them too.

    Hamburg Institute for Peace (wtf) and Security Policy´s Alexander Graef with an 8 page pdf (which could be translated by Google for those who wanna read) on his assessment of US stationing LRWs in Germany 2026.

    US medium-range weapons in Germany: Thinking about deterrence and arms control together
    Policy Brief 04|24
    https://ifsh.de/publikationen/policy-brief/policy-brief-0424

    He argues for a “weighed” discussion. Well, weighed means something like this for instance:

    “(…)
    (Russian) Demands for more investment in these areas have existed since the 1990s, but have not been implemented due to the country’s economic weakness and political instability. It was only with the five-day war with Georgia in 2008, which highlighted the weaknesses of the Russian armed forces, that a fundamental reform and modernization of the Russian army was initiated.
    (…)”

    NATO expansion 2008? NOOOOOO. Had NOTHING to do with it. It´s this HUUUGE war in Georgia and Russian incompetence. Naturally.

    Or take this beauty (just one paragraph later. It’s littered with this crap):

    “(…)
    By August 2024, the Russian army had fired nearly 10,000 missiles from various platforms. However, two-thirds of the ground-based systems were anti-aircraft missiles, which are actually designed for air targets, not land targets. The inappropriate use indicates a shortage of ground-based short-range systems, which Russia is clearly trying to compensate for by importing ballistic missiles from North Korea and Iran.
    (…)”

    I remember Anatol Lieven falling for this same shit when he visited Ukraine around Febr. 2023. Ukrainians had told him RUs were using SAMs against their tanks.

    And this is the highest level of public expertise you will get in Germany within the think tanks in question.
    I assume some internal analysis of Geman MoD might be better but they won´t show that to anybody on the outside.

    Also RUs 9M729 (Iskander K I assume) was the reason for US ending INF. It´s always Russia.
    BUT: this is a weighed analysis.

    And this PR is being produced 24/7 and filling the files of German policy-makers.

    But here is the revealing part too:

    Graef on 8 pages of pdf has this much on Oreshnik. Not one word more!
    As I said before this tells you something:

    “(…)
    Meanwhile, Russia has also deployed a conventional medium-range ballistic missile called “Oreshnik” against Ukraine. Oreshnik is based on the RS-26 intercontinental ballistic missile designed for nuclear missions and has
    like this one, several independent reentry vehicles (MIRV). This means that different targets can be hit simultaneously. Russian President Vladimir Putin has already announced the series production of the rocket.
    (…)”

    The rest of the pdf is about the virtual impossibility for arms limitation talks: Of course due to Russians and their mean dual-use strategy which puts NATO in a very difficult situation because, er, you never know if the incoming Russkie missile isn’t possibly nuclear tipped.

    Wow.
    Zero historic consciousness.

    And zero strategic expertise too, since here at the latest Graef should have mentioned things related to Oreshnik and the paradigm change in WMDs postures – things Jacques Baud pointed out a month ago or NC´s commentariat.

    But nothing about that from Graef.
    Yet it is Mr. Graef who influences German policies.
    Well, good luck with listening to him…

    p.s. And yes, Graef studied politics and spent time in Moscow so he would enhance his career prospects which worked out. I am so happy for him!
    Ah and yes, he too is a member of the merry band of Young Global Leaders…

    Reply ↓
  37. AG

    From above Amerikanets link re: Oreshnik

    3 reader’s comments there. However it is at 89 comments now.

    (These 2 links recommended there too:

    Oreshnik Against Zelensky’s Bunker [i]
    https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/oreshnik-against-zelenskys-bunker

    Back Engineering Oreshnik, Second Pass
    This is the second part of what will become a series on the Oreshnik weapon.
    https://forrestbishop.substack.com/p/back-engineering-oreshnik-second. )

    1) comment
    https://www.amerikanets.com/p/yuzhmash-and-oreshnik-demystified/comment/82454234

    “(…)
    The Ukrainians and NATO have done everything they can to suppress all information about the strike. If it was limited as you seem to be saying, surely it would be relatively easy for them to embarrass the Russians, by disproving the claims that the facility was destroyed. However, where are the videos of tne facility operating as normal post Oreshnik, or the photos of the facility itself including underground

    ? Where is the official satellite imagery?

    There isn’t any. That’s a huge tell.

    Even if the imagery that you are using is genuine imagery of the facility after the Oreshnik strike – let’s assume that it is – it doesn’t reveal any of the underground destruction that Oreshnik is designed to create, or include the full 36 strikes that were delivered.

    It’s the underground destruction that is important, not the surface impact.

    I note that multiple independent witnesses from near the strike and as far away as 25 km away, reported seismic like movements when the strike occurred, as well as total destuction of the facility. Having experienced multiple Russian strikes on the facility since 2022, they would be well placed to distinguish the difference between (say) an Iskander missile impact, and an Oreshnik impact.
    (…)”

    2) comment
    https://www.amerikanets.com/p/yuzhmash-and-oreshnik-demystified/comment/82581532

    “(…)
    In my time in the semiconductor industry – one of the biggest lessons I learned is that reality trumps theory every time.
    (…)
    This is what the West should be the most concerned about. The lack of manufacturing in the West is leading to a lack of capability from both capacity and real world engineering. There are absolutely smart and capable people working in the US and European military industrial industries, but it is equally clear that literally every new system fielded for at least 30 years is simply not fit for peer or near-peer combat much less being remotely economical.

    Russia has demonstrated a large number of new platforms with radical new capabilities, in contrast, despite being a lot smaller economically and spending a tiny fraction. The hypersonic missiles are one.
    (…)”

    3) comment
    https://www.amerikanets.com/p/yuzhmash-and-oreshnik-demystified/comment/82571296

    “(…)
    Among other things, it is not correct to express kinetic energy in TNT equivalent without calculating the energy acting on the impact area, since one impact on the target is narrowly focused, the energy efficiency of which is close to 100%, while the other impact is “radially dispersed”, with an energy efficiency to 16%.

    In order for the energy effect of TNT per cm2 of the target area to be comparable to Oreshnik, with a mass of 3 tons of warheads, the volume of TNT should be 24 kilotons. 24 kilotons is the TNT equivalent of “Oreshnik”

    This is indicated by the following calculations:
    (…)
    Thus, the effective power of a 0.5 ton warhead accelerated to a speed of 10M, affecting cm2 of the target area, is equal to 4 kilotons in TNT equivalent.

    Therefore, the effective power of 6 kinetic warheads of 0.5 tons each is comparable to 24 kilotons of TNT. Or 666 tons per 1 of 36 subunits.
    (…)”

    Reply ↓
    1. Arkady Bogdanov

      That comment #3 is what I have been trying to explain to people, and I think few are understanding it. The fact that the energy is FOCUSED is what is important. It is like the difference between what a 100 watt light bulb will do compared to what a 100 watt laser will do (burn through many materials- my wife has a 40 watt laser and it cuts wood fairly efficiently on a small cnc router platform). To damage a buried object you can use a small amount of energy if it is focused into a tight cone of destruction, or you can use a very large, multi kiloton surface detonation. Efficiency of energy transfer to the target is what is key here, and that is where the kiloton equivalency is coming from.

      Reply ↓
    2. fact

      – one of the biggest lessons I learned is that reality trumps theory every time.

      In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.

      Reply ↓

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